Fantasy Football Daily - Hard Count with Wes Huber: 2022 Breakouts & Faceplants in the AFC and NFC North

Episode Date: June 20, 2022

In the third episode of Wes Huber's new series, Hard Count, he touches on the AFC and NFC North, looking at possible breakout players and busts from each division. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Hardcount. I'm your host, Wes Huber. We shift our focus this week to the breakouts and faceplants of the AFC and NFC North. The Baltimore Ravens offense, the writing is really on the wall. It doesn't take a genius to decipher Eric DeCosta's immediate plans for the offense. He traded away Marquise Brown, his number one wide receipts. receiver. The 522 draft picks devoted to the offense include two old linemen, two tight ends, both providing extremely interesting receiving profiles, and a running back with his own receiving background. The Ravens went from using the fourth highest percentage of overall

and third highest percentage of passing plays using multi-tide-in side. sets in 2019 to the 14th and 13th lowest percentage last season. Reverting to those 19 percentages is a near guarantee with Greg Roman still calling the shots and the offense struggling last season. It will be a great opportunity for DeVernay to get more involved. And the elite run blocking skills of Thailand and Wallace will definitely come into play. But the wide receiver target party for Rashad Bateman is nigh.

Hollywood leaves behind the 12th most targets per game and fourth most air yards per game. Mandrews will continue to be the first defeat. Count on that. Just do not hesitate to aggressively draft Bateman in all formats. on defense, far more went wrong for Marlon Humphrey than the pectoral injury that prematurely ended his 21 season. He concluded the 2020 season allowing the 22nd fewest yards per coverage snap and 12th lowest targeted passer rating. But then he went and he permitted the 18th most yards per coverage snap and 28th highest targeted passer rating. rating this past year. Both were easily the worst marks of his career. It was essentially a tale of

three Marlins in 2021, weeks one and two when Humphrey let Zay Jones and DeMarcus Robinson score 30-yard touchdowns inside his coverage. Also, it's when Baltimore use more cover four or quarters and cover six, then the cover one, three, and zero mix that we've come to expect from a Don Martindale defense. Then we have the revival for Marlon from weeks three through six when he allowed fewer combined fantasy points than in week one or week two by themselves. It's also when Martindale shifted back to featuring his tried and true cover one, cover 3 and zero formula. But the wheels came off during Humphrey's last six games, beginning with Joe Burrow,

Jamar Chase, and the Bengals slapping the taste right out of his mouth with seven receptions, 227 yards, and two touchdowns. It stood as the point when Martindale lost all four. faith in Marlin and the healthy Ravens bodies in the secondary being in a man coverage. Martindale tried just about every scheme in existence to get Marlin going over the remainder of the season. It's really tough to determine how new DC Mike McDonald will align the defense.

He did spend seven seasons with the Ravens under Dean Pease. and Martindale, but then he utilized the zone heavy, cover four and six rotation in his one season as the Michigan defensive coordinator. Humphrey may not play as bad this season as he did the last, but the immense wide receiver talent in the AFC North will punish anything less than elite play from the number one corner. calling for a breakout season from Joe Burrow may seem like an odd statement. I mean, the kid, he nearly passed for 6,000 yards and 40 touchdowns last year. And he led the Bengals to Super Bowl 56.

I mean, that's quite a breakout. However, Burrow, he hasn't even hit his potential ceiling yet. Since his O-line allowed 50 quarterback pressures during the 21 playoffs. An owner slash general manager Mike Brown, he apparently liked his first taste of Super Bowl action since taking over the franchise in 1991 from his late father.

The free agent signings of Ted Karras, Alex Kappa, and Lyle Collins should not be overlooked. Cincinnati's current projected starting O line permitted an average of 1.7 combined pressures per game last season. In comparison, the Patriots led the NFL by allowing eight pressures per game last season. It's pretty simple. Burrow is going to hit 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns,

and he will do it without the four additional playoff games that allowed him to do it last year. He's going to do it in the regular season people. On defense, nobody gave Eli Apple the credit he deserved for Cincinnati's success last season. Yes, Apple permitted four touchdowns to his coverage during Sincis' playoff run. An argument could be made, though, that all four were under 14 yards, and two were scored by the most dominant receiver in the game, Cooper Cup. All right. However, excuses are unnecessary for Apple's 21 play. Not after holding his coverage to the 16th fewest yards per coverage snap,

eighth fewest air yards per coverage snap, 26th lowest deep completion rate, and the 11th fewest fantasy points per coverage snap. And he did it without missing a single game due to injury. Assign those ranks to another name and ears will perk up. Just not for the corner that flamed out with the Giants, the Saints, and the Panthers. The Bengals, yes, they added Cam Taylor Britt out of Nebraska with the 60th pick of the 22 draft. But he's no threat to Apple. As Lou Anorumo, he's well aware of the value that Apple brings to the table.

if after another season of excellent play, we're still getting those opinions tossed around, that Apple is a burden to the defense. It will be time to label those responsible as likely resentful Giants homers. You know, things are not looking good for Deshawn Watson. It's very possible that we may not see him in burnt orange until 2023. while we should all avoid him at all costs in redraft formats, I want the dynasty people to listen up here. Watson's football talent is no fluke.

What he brings to the table pre-snap reading the defense, these are things that are very rare. And the NFLPA will not allow us a suspension. to extend beyond the 22 season without criminal charges filed or video proof of misconduct. I get it. You may not like the guy. He may be a creep. But that does not mean that you should just give him away. In a superflex, you better be collecting a haul before you even consider a trade. The expectation must be that Watson will not play this season until we hear otherwise. But let me make this clear.

Age does not matter at quarterback. Play. The quality of play. That is all that matters at the position. No matter how old you are, I think we have several examples right now that, that prove that to the letter. For the Browns, though, the relations with Baker Mayfield, they appear to be beyond repair. So should we just write off the receiving options for the Browns with Jacoby Brissette

under center? Absolutely not. Was Brissette great for the Dolphins last year? Absolutely not. But we're talking about a season spent with a wide receiver rotation after Jalen Waddle of Albert Wilson, Matt Collins, Preston Williams, and Isaiah Ford. I would not be that excited if I was going into a college season with those wide receivers. I mean, other than Waddle, of course.

The Browns are going to be a run-heavy offense, and Amari Cooper will be the number one. The signing, going back a couple of years, the signing of Austin Hooper on a four-year $44 million contract, was a devastating mistake from then first year GM Andrew Barry. Not so much in the money since tight-in talent is rewarded in the NFL. We see dollars thrown around on tight-ins all the time. But it was devastating in a way of how it held back David Injoku and his development, his on-the-field development. We only need to look at Injoku generating the 16th most fantasy points per route, the second highest deep completion rate,

the 11th most yards per route run, and the 7th most yards after the completion per reception from last season to get an idea of the upside. This guy's an athletic phenomenon, by the way. A featured role is on the horizon. I don't care who's a quarterback, and he's likely to be the number two option in the passing game. Don't sleep. On defense, the only thing that held Greg Newsom the second, I love this kid out of Northwestern,

the only thing that held him back from a rookie year breakout were a calf injury and a concussion. And his play, it fell off a bit after the concussion. It was a nasty one. However, finishing top 35 and yards allowed per coverage snap, deep completion rate, and fantasy points per coverage snap is a big win for Cleveland from their number two, number three corner, depending on how you look at. He's definitely not the number one. Denzel Ward, top five guy, he's number one.

But, you know, we also have greedy Williams to consider here. But Greg Newsom, you know, he's the first rounder. So I would probably slot him in as the number two. But, you know, it's really a rotation between those two at this stage in Newsom's development. And those metrics from Newsom, they lingered in the top 15 for much of the season prior to that concussion. Newsom's development is accelerated by one being the second year in Joe Woods' system. to, like I said, the presence of Denzel Ward, who's just blown up. I mean, his value is through the roof right now, probably one of the most important players

in the NFL. And I would easily slot him in to the top, one of the top 15 most important players in the entire NFL. That's how good he is. But, you know, Greedy Williams, his presence is great as well. So, you know, one goes down, obviously, you got, you. you've got a stand in there. But having all three is just, I mean, it's such a luxury that very few teams in the NFL

have anything close to. With Cleveland's offense, likely heavily featuring their elite ground game. And I'm talking elite, because they may also have the top offensive line in the NFL. The 49ers would have something to say as far as as a run blocking perspective. But overall, I mean, it's tough to really argue against the Browns. having the best unit. But the defense, I mean, working with an offense that's going to be

burning up the clock, the defense is going to be rested. And they got a great gift from the NFL with a solid 14th easiest schedule, which is excellent for a team that if Watson were to take the field would definitely be a playoff contender.

And it's all just additional reasoning to expect Newsom's outstanding coverage skills to shine in 2023. It's not as positive in Pittsburgh. And it was really a slap right in the face of the starting quarterback, whoever it's going to be, and Najee Harris, that outgoing general manager, Kevin Colbert, and his incoming replacement, Omar on that they used five of eight draft picks on the offense and made zero additions to the O line. No matter how you view the 129th pick of the 21 drafts rookie season, Danmore Jr., was a bottom 10 left tackle among qualified performers. Don't discount the fact.

that Mitchell Tribisky's one good season in Chicago coincided with his O-line having a breakout year. We're talking top 10 performance across the line. In each of his other three seasons in the Windy City, the Bears put a bottom 10 O line on the field. Ironically enough, the Steelers one positive addition to their O-line. James Daniels. I mean, he's actually Chubesky's starting left guard from his Chicago days. And the addition of Daniels is an attempt to circumvent losing their top pass pro guy in Trey Turner to Washington. We can't let the Pittsburgh O line get away with taking credit for lower pressure rates last season.

Ben Rothlisberger was essentially forced not entirely on the end. O line. Some of it was on his shoulder, but he was essentially forced to snap and release in under two seconds to offset both the ineptitude of his throwing his arm strength and the O line. And the entire 21 O line proved dismal in blocking for the run. They replaced Kendrick Green's scrub play at center with another scrub, Mason Cole. We appear to be heading toward another lost season from Pittsburgh with considerable offensive skill positions and a truly elite defense, all thanks to that pathetic O line. Speaking of the O line, another factor that should not be discounted is the fact that Kenny Pickett was finally provided with a top 25 O line. at Pitt this last season.

And just so happens, he transforms from a 1.56 touchdown per interception quarterback with zero future into a six touchdown per interception version that ends up getting drafted in the first round. It really points out just how good Joe Burrow is and taking his team to the Super Bowl with a bottom 5-0 line. last year. And just how replacement level Pickett can be when he's playing behind a battle line. Did I fail to mention the Steelers will play? We'll face the fifth most difficult schedule this season. Pittsburgh's first 11 games offer very few breaks.

It will lighten up come fantasy playoff time. But let's face it. Kenny Pickett's not going to be ready for this time. type of NFL. Perhaps it might just be best for Pickett's confidence and for his health if Chubisky starts this entire season. The Steelers badly need to address the O-line and the 2023 draft. You know, extrapolate Justin Fields' touchdown rate from the COVID-shortened 2020 season at Ohio State to the same number of throws he attempted during his big 20-20. 2019, and he throws 35 touchdowns, which is a few short of his 19 number, but he throws for more passing yardage, and he throws it, he's more efficient with his with his yardage per attempt.

And he accomplished it with not only the worst O line I have ever witnessed for the Buckeyes, it was bad enough to be considered outside of the, the top 75 units in the country. And we're talking a lot of group of five teams in there that do not have anything close to the recruiting potential of the Ohio State Powerhouse. But of course, the narrative police, they've been hard at work attempting to convince anyone who will listen that Chicago is about to face plant this season. I've even seen some of the Chicago people doing it. They've started to listen to it and they're just buying in.

Mark my words. Fields, the Bears receivers, and the ground game will each greatly surpass expectations this season. I mean, to be honest, they're so low for most out there that, I mean, I'm going to be right no matter what. But, you know, new GM, Ryan Poles, he didn't have a first round pick. he traded it for Justin Fields last year. And then he used his two second rounders to address the defense. But he at least used four of 11 picks on O linemen. Take note, Pittsburgh.

Not to mention the fact that 21 was a completely lost season for second rounder, Tevin Jenkins, who is projected to be the left tackle. And Poles also added Lucas Patrick in the mix, the center from Green Bay, who was just a part-timer. And then the past two years has really been a solid center, a position where we've seen some really bad play past couple of years. And he did it. He got him in on a really nice deal that didn't spend a whole lot to get him either. It's really astonishing, though, that Chicago's offense found their level of rushing season. success last year. When you factor in the O-line allowed the second highest negative or zero gain

rate in the league. The defense, mark it down, mark that one down as well, they will be improved under new head coach and defensive mastermind Matt Eberfluss. One of my favorite coaches in the NFL, by the way. This guy is a genius. And they've been gifted with the fifth easiest schedule, that big of a surprise, considering we have a team with, you know, a young quarterback and, you know, a new coach, and, you know, he's retooling the roster. So however, however the NFL came to the conclusion of this schedule, I think, I think it's fitting. And don't read into this crap being thrown around about Jenkins working, Tevin Jenkins, working with the twos in mandatory minicamp. All right? He's, he's getting close to one.

100% health, and he's just attempting to shed some weight. It's not the type of situation where you throw a guy into the fire in a, you know, a minicamp situation. When we get further along in the process, if that's still what's going on, then we can be concerned. Don't be getting massively concerned about what people are throwing around at this stage in the offseason or preseason, whatever you want to, whatever you want to call it. The Bears need Jenkins on the field.

No more so than David Montgomery. The fact that Montgomery, who is my breakout guy here, and I know he went for 1,000 yards last year, but he also missed several games. So we obviously still haven't seen the best from David Montgomery, and this kid was unbelievable at Iowa State. We definitely have not seen the best of what he can do. One of the most difficult running backs to tackle in the NFL, by the way.

The fact that he is being drafted outside of the top 20, running backs in redrafts has value written all over it. Let the narrative police talk. Just ignore every word. Flipping to the defensive side. It's one thing to pencil a first round corner in with the starters as a rookie, especially like a top 10 guy, top 15 even. It's another entirely to do so with one that fell from a potential

first rounder to the 39th pick. So we had teams that were passing him up in the second round. And that's pretty significant. We'll get into that. The Tavon Young edition was a poor signing. I didn't like anything he did last year in Baltimore. The decision not to retain Arty Burns was a mistake. Now, I'm not factoring in what Burns was asking. I'm not, I'm not factoring in what Burns was asking. I don't know that. He signed with Seattle. I didn't even look up his salary. It's neither here nor there.

But the Bears, they need Thomas Graham, who was actually pretty good last year, to take the job opposite Jaylon Johnson. Kyler Gordon, my face plant guy here, he needs time in a situational role to acclimate before being thrown into the lion's den. There's a reason, like I said, we get back to this. There's a reason we see 50 plus defensive backs drafted every year. The turnover rate is massive. And the supply doesn't even come close to the demand in today's NFL where we're seeing air raid disciplines and things built into the offenses. I mean, almost every team is using a spread nowadays.

And there's also a reason that Gordon slipped in the draft. The majority of scouts, they didn't think that he had the ability to succeed on the outside. Iber Fluss's starting corners have historically pressed wide receivers at top 10 rates, both of them. Functional strength is the overwhelming concern for Gordon. So Gordon, emerging as a starter right away seems very unlikely. If he starts out in a situational role, I'm going to walk back this faceplant. But if he's going to be thrown into the fire, Kyle, Kyler Gordon is going to faceplant. And I'm talking big time here.

The lion's offense is much improved. Don't count out the Packers. We'll get there. And, I mean, seriously, the Vikings, okay, let's just hope that that's not the plan here. Speaking of the Lions, and I'll make this one quick, DeAndre Swift is going to have an excellent NFL career, possibly outstanding. The proof can be found and finding Swift as my RB5 and my dynasty ranks. However, it's all too common to see a dino outlook bleeding over onto the redraft. We're seeing Swift come off the board and redrafts inside the top 15 overall picks.

Those breaks need to be pumped. Swift has missed three games to injury in both of his first two seasons in the NFL. And this is after playing at Georgia where he was never the featured guy. He was always in a near 50-50 to 60-40 timeshare every season. He set career highs last year of 151 carries and 617 rushing yards. Just don't count on seeing those numbers rise significantly. Yes, he's going to get a lot of receiving play. Don't get me wrong.

but a running back that only exceeded a 52% carry share in four of 11 games should not be drafted among the top five running backs. We still have some bell cows out there, guys, ladies as well, obviously. When I say guys, I mean both. On defense, Amani Arroyer gave us glimpses of excellence last season. and I love the free agent addition of strong safety to Sean Elliott. That's one defensive back for Baltimore I think was a big get.

However, the defensive line still has issues, obviously outside of Aden Hutchinson, who I love, guys is just a beast. But the linebacker unit is a complete liability.

And Mike Hughes should not be a starting corner. Look, hiding Hughes among a stacked Kansas City defense is one thing. Trying to do it in Detroit is not going to end well. A starting corner is not plucked off free agency on a one year 3.5 million prove it deal. Did Hughes have a breakout year with Kansas City? And that's why there's word around that he, that he, he, He may be the starter. Okay.

He'll out the fifth most fantasy points per coverage snap, the 25th most yards per coverage snap, the 24th highest targeted passer rating, and the sixth highest deep completion rate among 77 qualified cornerbacks last year. Need I say more? I hope not. On the rolling tundra of Lambeau Field,

I mean, let's be real here. Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins are on the downside of their careers. I'm not saying they need to be tossed out. No, they still have plenty left to provide NFL teams. They're just not at the stage of their careers where they're going to have breakout seasons. I think we can all agree there. Christian Watson, Romeo Doobes, and Amari Rogers, three guys with, with lots of potential.

I like all three of them, actually. But they need time to check all of the boxes that Aaron Rogers is going to require before they're going to see anything close to significant target shares in his offense. It's really a selection by elimination deal for Alan Lazard. Look, Devante Adams, I mean, he ate up such a massive percentage. of the targets that it's really unfair to eliminate Lazard or to toss statements at Lazard as a poor performer against a particular coverage scheme. There were just so many targets tossed at Adams that he just didn't get a high enough

target share to see how he could actually do, right? But it's still fair to point out that Lazard has found some decent success across from cover one, cover four, and cover six, which, I mean, I'm looking at it, and that's three of the five coverages, and that's with Devante Adams. It's very simple, my friends. The quarterback that has won back-to-back MVP's searching for a new number one receiver, and after Adams, who's obviously in Las Vegas, and Mr. Rogers is long in the tooth, Bro Montez. Randall Cobb, Aaron has made it clear that

Lazard is his fave. So please enlighten me, anybody. Tell me some compelling reasons why Lazard is lasting until the seventh round in redrafts. On defense,

if I had to select my five favorite NFL corners, Rasul does Douglas would make that list. Look, some like underdogs, others, they ride the bandwagons of favorites. I've no no knocks here. I get it. They're fun.

Both. Underdogs, bandwagons are both fun. I like watching football just in general. So, I mean, I get it. I actually enjoy both of those as well. But my weakness is for big time talents that just can't get enough. I devote a chunk of my analysis searching for those underappreciated guys. You'll not find many deserving of a massive correction in appreciation more than Douglas does.

He was kicked off the Carolina roster when his recovery from COVID. And then we're talking, we're talking the original strain went slower than expected. at least determined by the masterminds, quote-unquote, of the Panthers' front office decision makers. Then he failed to find a role with the dumpster fire that was the John Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Actually, I liked them. I like both of those guys.

Gruden, you know, got into some trouble there, so it turned into a dumpster fire. Mayok, he made some crappy decisions, but I love the guy's draft analysis. Don't take it the wrong way. It's not a personal attack. It was just based on the results, you know. A handful of weeks after being cut by Las Vegas,

Douglas, he closes out the 21 season by holding his coverage to the ninth lowest deep completion rate. The sixth fewest yards per coverage snap. The ninth fewest fantasy points per coverage snap. The third lowest targeted passer rating. Haters are going to hate. We all know that. Just be careful who you trust. Razul Douglas was, is, and will be in the 22 season,

one of the top five zone corners in the game. Yeah, I think I've made it clear. I think he's going to have a breakout. And I mean a breakout, not in performance. I think that we've seen that already. We're going to see a breakout in the appreciation for this guy. So the takeover of the Minnesota offense under Kevin O'Connell and West Phillips, it's going to be big for, you know, it's a list.

Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and if and kind of win, Cook goes down for a game or two, Alexander Madison. Problem being, most everyone already agrees that the Vikings moving to a 21st century offense, improves the outlook for each of those individuals. Some will likely still sleep on cousins, but it's just not enough for me to get all that excited about. He's still being drafted just right around where I would love to, I would love to see him drop back a couple of rounds

so I could go in and scoop him up like several years ago, but it's just not happening. The forgotten man, here, KJ Osborne. By the way, Irv Smith, I think he's a good player. He's got some tools, but we're going to see a lot less heavy personnel. So I do wonder if the Vikings like to use multiple tight ends. I do wonder how much of the target share is Irv Smith actually going to take?

I'm not calling for a face plan or anything. I'm just saying I'm not calling for a breakout either. But the forgotten man, like I said, at KJ Osborne, for a mere 12th to 13th round investment at the earliest, I mean, you can get him even later, can net an unheralded wide receiver five or six for your roster that could slip right back into a featured role if and win feeling goes down. I'm not rooting for an injury, but he seems to get hurt for at least a couple games every year. And for a new look spread offense that may end up passing at a top 10 rate, I'm in. Selected with the fifth pick of the 2011 draft, Patrick Peterson has had an excellent NFL career. With his 32nd birthday less than a month away, his days of sticking in a starting lineup, they look like they're winding down.

Ed Donatel, he brings his defensive wizardry over from Denver, along with the expectation for the competitive cover one rate that Peterson used to excel earlier in his career. Take notice of the earlier reference there. The Vikings did not bring Shandon Sullivan into town after his breakout 21 with the Packers to stand on the sidelines. Now, the inside outside logistics on Sullivan, where he's going to align, it did not strike me as relevant after how well he played last season. I think he could play both.

I really do. I thought he showed plenty of functional strength off the line that I think he could play on the outside. Not to mention the fact that Cam Dantzler appears destined for stardom, Peterson ended up playing better than expected. down the stretch last season. A face plant expectation, though, it should probably be retooled with an attached potential distinction. More than anything, seeing Peterson convert to a sub-package role is probably the optimal suggestion here.

That's it. Join me next week when we shift over to the breakouts and faceplants from the AFC and NFC South. Have a good one.