Fantasy Football Daily - Hard Count with Wes Huber: 2022 Breakouts & Faceplants in the AFC and NFC South

Episode Date: June 28, 2022

In the third episode of Wes Huber's new series, Hard Count, he touches on the AFC and NFC South, looking at possible breakout players and busts from each division. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

11, Omaha. Your host, Wes Huber. Focus your attention this week to the breakouts and faceplants from the AFC and NFC South. This entry is not exactly a break or bust declaration, more of an involvement narrative face plan. So you want Damien Pierce to be the bell cow for the Houston Texans. Let's look to history for a realistic expectation. We have five seasons. recorded data with Pep Hamilton as the offensive coordinator.

He's the Andrew Luck Whisperer who served as his OC during his senior year at Stanford and first three seasons in the NFL. Stefan Taylor played the lead as a junior and senior during Hamilton's two OC seasons at Stanford. He was trusted with the 75-25 lead as a senior after a 55-45 lead as a junior. In Hamilton's first season in Indianapolis, the Colts tossed a first round pick in the trash, literally, to acquire Trent Richardson. The running back previously drafted third overall and traded for a first, spent two seasons with the Colts. He never broke out of a 50-50 carry split. Richardson infamously face-planted when he was cut by the Raiders and Ravens without playing. another snap. He spent the rest of his career meddling between the CFL and Mexican League.

In 2015, the Colt signed 10-year veteran Frank Gore. Gore took the heaviest workload from Hamilton's five seasons as offensive coordinator. However, his backfield scoring the 10th most touchdowns and 13th highest yards per carry also plummeted to 28th and 20th. The Texans will pay four running backs a million plus this season. Rex Burkhead has been a lot of the most cash at 2.5 million, followed by Marlon Mack at 1.7 million. They also committed $1.6 million to Daray Agumboale, and he doesn't come off the books until 2024. In all likelihood, Pierce will be lucky to scoop out a 50% share of the carries this, season. By season's end, though, Derek Stingley, Jr. will have established himself as a

lockdown corner. Big whoop, right? Bold statement for the 22 drafts third overall pick. And NFL teams have had some outstanding results drafting corners in the top 10 since 2016. Prior to that, not so much. However, The call isn't just for Stingley to be really good. It's for him immediately becoming his deep shadow in Lovie Smith, Hickson's have been without his level of talent since Bradley Robey.

Comparing his career numbers at LSU to outside NFL family was mostly lost due to injury. And when you watch his tape, you see why he was drafted so high. The kid drapes over his coverage like a glove. He's oozing with athleticism, and he understands how to cover top athletes. Bummed about the retirement of Jack Doyle? Unless you were invested in Doyle's stock, you shouldn't be.

Moe Alley Cox has easily been that superior talent. Let's look at the two over the last, or let's look at Mo Ali Cox over the last three seasons. Mac ranks 14th versus cover one in fantasy points per route. 14th versus cover three. 19th versus cover six. Guess which three coverages? Matt Ryan has excelled against the last three years. We can't get carried away with dynasty investment.

into Ali Cox's, Ali Cox since he'll turn 29 right before week three. And the Colts also have serious young athletes in Kylan Granson and Jolani Woods drafted in the last two seasons. But Mack has averaged the 16th most yards per route run and 12th most yards per target the last three seasons. Finally, having an opportunity to be featured is more than an. enough reason to add him as you're tied in two with the potential for tied in one production and make sure you understand this redrafts it appears the

impact from the departure of defensive mastermind Matt Eberfluss will immediately be felt on the Indianapolis defense sorry Gus Bradley but Nick Cross is not the type of talent you want to feature right out of the gate. And he may not even be the type of talent that you feature ever. We may end up seeing Bradley pivoting to starting two free safeties in Julian Blackman and Rodney McLeod. And to be honest, Nick Cross, he played free safety at Maryland. He's not a strong safety.

And we know what type of defense that Gus Bradley is going to want to play. It's a cover three with a single high safety. Now, he can only just shift one of the corners down and use two high safeties, and that might be what he has in mind. But it's still not a situation where this rookie should be on the field with featured reps. Cross missed one of every six tackle attempts during his Maryland career. And that number went up during his final season. He was unimpressive in coverage and is a complete tackling liability.

How is he someone that you want as your last line of defense? What am I missing? Does he mix a mean martini? It's spotty scouting to say the least. At this stage in his career, it really won't take much for Evan Ingram to put post a career year. Five years and 3.3-2 touchdowns per year does not scream ROI for the 23rd pick in the 2017 draft. He's averaged a solid 1.36 yards per route run as long as by solid, we mean from the perspective of expectations from a running back. Two glaring strength,

two glaring trends stand out from his time in New York. He needs to stay healthy. And in the three seasons, he stayed on the field. In 2017 and 2020, he broke 100 targets and posted career highs in receiving yards. 2020, he didn't have the touchdowns, but, you know, we really can't predict the touchdowns. So that doesn't help us much. but in the other example where he stayed on the field was last season when we were forced to watch him work with Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm for most of the year

that was pretty painful. Assuming Ingram stays healthy and Trevor Lawrence is more competent than Glennon and Fromm, which he is, at first glance looking at the Jacksonville Jaguar's roster, it appears only 9% of the of the 2021 targets are up for grabs. However, we will see quite a reshuffling of the target priorities. Dan Arnold, no question.

He's going to take a back seat. And Marvin Jones Jr. and LaQuan Treadwell, well, I hate to say it, but we're going to see a drop down the target totem. It's nearly a guarantee that Ingram will conclude this season with at least 100 target targets is provided he's able to stay healthy. And that's money for the level of investment that's required. Are we really going to run this one back? I mean, the previous regime, which I'm not going to knock him anymore, the industry has kicked them around pretty bad already. But I mean, they carelessly invested a second round capital into Tyson Campbell,

cornerback out of Georgia. He played featured snaps and 14 and 15 games played last season. The results? Oh, it's painful. The 13th most yards per coverage snap. The 21st most air yards per coverage snap. The 14th highest deep completion rate.

And the 13th most fantasy points per coverage snap. And we're not talking about the starters. We're talking about the qualified here. That was out of 77 corners. And teams took notice. they targeted him at the 22nd highest rate. Think about that. It's not like the Jags were playing with a lead.

So it wasn't as though, you know, there was a lot of snaps there where that he was being targeted because, I mean, they were basically, the opposing teams were running the bone and closing out games. But still, in the snaps that he played, and it was significant coverage snaps, they were targeting. And it was, it was competitive across all corners.

On the eye test, his coverage was soft. He didn't look like, he didn't, he didn't, he didn't, he didn't, he didn't, he didn't, he looked like he didn't know what he was doing. Yes, he was athletic. He has, he has, he has some speed. It's not enough. And it, to be honest, it's difficult to really tell the kid played for, for Kirby Smart, who's one of, he has, he has, he has, he has, he has, he has, he has, he has, he has one of it's not enough.

of the preeminent masterminds in college football. Until we see reasons to think otherwise, we're going to be targeting Tyson Campbell in the 2022 season. For the Tennessee Titans, I mean, really, I'm not going to hold back any punches here. The dumpster fire much. The Titans, they do have a decent fantasy playoff schedule, and they play a light schedule in their first seven games. San's Buffalo week too, of course.

Let's say they got out a five and two record to begin the year. That's when they enter one of the most difficult five-game stretches that any team will face this season. They play the Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Eagles. Do not underestimate the Eagles this year, guys. If they aren't careful, Tennessee could enter week 14 with a 5 and 7 record. Two of their last five are against the chargers and the cowboys.

We know they're going to be scratching and clawing for a playoff spot, and those are good rosters. It's not unrealistic that Tennessee could finish 8 and 9 this season. The O line is not my line. much better than the one that allowed the sixth most quarterback pressures last season. Taylor Luwan is one of the worst left tackles in the game. They traded away one of the top five wide receiver talents in the NFL for an extremely raw underachiever with breathing issues.

If you've read my work from the past, you'll know I'm a big believer in. Ryan Tana Hill's talents. He's been so solid for DFS except for last year when he, you know, we saw some struggles, but the previous two years, he was great. Even better

quarterbacks would fall short within these limitations. I'm sorry, Tennessee Titans are believers. Ryan Tannahill is a face plant for me this year.

And if they, if they, if they, jump out to a losing record, don't be surprised if Malik Willis takes the field. Ryan Tanjell is 33, and this Titans team, it appears they're headed towards a rebuild. So we can't blame Trelai and Birx for having asthma. I mean, that's just foolish. And we can't blame him for excusing away his poor Combine and Pro Day showings. Honestly, wouldn't we do the same when our careers were on the line?

We can blame the Titans, though, for failing to scout the condition, and we can blame them for falling for the poor testing excuses. And any good dumpster fire needs fuel, right? While scouting burks, I noted the following. And this is just related to his route precision. His turns, they give the appearance he's changing direct. on a frozen lake. Defensive backs are already on him by the time he manages to begin regaining his momentum out of his brakes.

Berks' route running is extremely raw, and he needs considerable training with his footwork. So, I mean, how Tennessee came away with the notion that Burks would blaze a trail across the interfell is perplexing. Do not make the same mistake. You know, I truly feel the Carolina Panthers are one of the worst mismanaged rosters in the entire league. But I'm going to toss some positive statements at you. So it's a foregone conclusion.

In my eyes, I just, I think it's a game. guarantee that Christian McCaffrey is going to need someone to help carry the load, particularly since CMC will be so busy cleaning up all of the checkdowns that the Panthers quarterbacks will need him to take to help push this offense that, let's admit, it's going to be rough. So after saving the Titans to close out the regular season when Derek Henry was injured, last year. Over the last six games, he averaged 80.3 rushing yards per game and 0.5 touchdowns. You know, nothing just extraordinary. But, you know, the job got done. The Titans went four and two.

He went for over 100 yards in a few of those games. More than anything, he proved, and by he, I mean, Dante Foreman, that the Achilles injury that derailed his career is the thing of the past. If you want to know what the what the upside and what type of ceiling we have with Dante Foreman, go back and look at his senior year at Texas. And I don't care about the competition. It was the player. Dante Foreman is a serious running back, a difficult tackle. You know, it is difficult to get excited about the skill resources for Carolina outside of,

of CMC and DJ Moore, the Formis should have no problem posting career numbers across the board this year in a secondary role. And if CMC were to go down again, I mean, who knows? Dante Forman could become quite a name. On defense,

look for a breakout from J.C. Horn, but I mean in the sense that he'll do what he already did last season before injuring his ankle. Yeah, it was only three games. But three games in the NFL is a different story. And the quality he displayed includes holding his coverage to 0.09 yards per coverage snap. 0.09 fantasy points per coverage snap.

He didn't allow a single reception of 15 yards or more. and quarterbacks would have been better off throwing the ball, literally, into the ground, than targeting his coverage. He held his responsibilities to the minimum 39.6 targeted pass a rating. It's simple math. And just to be clear with all of those, he would have finished first with every one of those. But obviously, he didn't qualify. We'll need to account for horn in matchups all season.

The kid is legit. So when James Winston originally signed with New Orleans, seeing what he and Michael Thomas could do together was the major allure. Yes, we saw Winston in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and it was nice. They put up some really good numbers. But at the time, prior to his ankle injury, Michael Thomas, he was considered a top five wide receiver. And so with Kent Guard Mike, just about ready to return to the field, we're about to get that wish fulfilled. Toss in the 4-3, potentially sub-4-3. Remember, when Chris Oliva was at the Combine, he ran his first 40 time, and they told him it was in the 4-2s.

So he declined to run it a second time. And then, of course, it came out that they changed it to 4-3s. it's very possible that and what I see on tape is I mean just blazing speed I mean he just doesn't even like he's moving his legs he's moving so, just going so fast

but so toss in that speed of Olave and also Jarvis Landry on the inside who I mean the guy's in Angelous Wonder I mean I don't think he's going to play forever he'll get crazy in Dynasty but I mean they're potentially going to provide him

and by him, I mean Winston, the top wide receiver trio of his career. I mean, I don't think there's really any argument to that. And considering that Alvin Kamara, they're likely to be suspended for at least the first six games. I mean, is there any other choice but for the Saints to go into past heavy mode early in the season? And, you know, there could be,

It could be like an air raid type of approach where there's a lot of short passes, but we know James Winston is going to air it out, whether they need to run or pass as their offensive philosophy. So if this wide receiver rotation is able to stay on the field and Alave never missed a game at Ohio State, Jarvis Landry, he's been pretty consistent with his health. So it's just going to come down to Michael Thomas. that ankle's ready to go, watch out.

We may see some career numbers from Famous Jamis. Go back and look at his stats. A career year from this guy would be, we're talking mountain moving type impact in fantasy. So with the replacement level play of Kwanah Alexander, no longer on the roster, it's about time. Pete Werner is primed for a big year, starting alongside DiMario Davis. If you didn't know, Demerio Davis is one of the top three most dominant linebackers in coverage,

quite nearly an impenetrable wall. It might be quite a shock to learn that Werner, albeit in a sample size limited to 200 coverage snaps, wasn't too far off of Davis's numbers. Pretty much top, top 15, top 20 across the board. We knew Werner would be an outstanding defender against the run from his Buckeye days. But the speed, which his coverage skill has developed, really turns this Saints defense into a formidable opponent for everyone.

everyone on the schedule. Just listen to this, the secondary. It's built with Marshawn Latimore. Paul Sin Adivo. Yeah, he went through some growing pains as a rookie, but this kid has a lot of potential. Then their third corner is Bradley Robey, one of the top shadows in the NFL. They sign Marcus May from the Jets. and Tyron Matthew, the Honey Badger himself from the Chiefs.

I mean, that secondary rivals any in the league. We know the defensive line is going to get home between Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, and David on Yamada. I mean, it's elite. Look at the linebacker unit is got to be the weakness, right? Well, I think I've made that pretty clear. With Davis and Warner wreaking havoc over the middle, New Orleans has constructed a near-perfect defense that is the equivalent of a juggernaut.

An offensive juggernaut, but on defense, my goodness, if James Winston goes off this year, watch out for the Saints. Okay, so we're all waiting around for Word on an ETA for Chris Godwin. I mean, what's the deal? Is he going to be put on the Pupp list in the year? Are we looking at an even longer absence or is he going to show us an Adrian Peterson-like recovery here? We really don't know. The Russell Gage will have value independent.

of that return due to his dynamite opportunity catching money targets from the goat. You know, out of necessity, Gage was, he was thrust into the spotlight last year for the Falcons. He really impressed with that added volume. He flipped 93 targets into the 17th most yards per route run and 22nd most fantasy points per route. The Buccaneers, they use the fifth highest rate of 11 personnel. Gage is going to be staying on the field in most situations. He'll get the most significant boost transitioning from the 19th most air yards per game under Matt Ryan to the most in the NFL last season provided by the Great Tom Brady. And keep in mind, Matt Ryan, he,

finished he finished in the in the bottom six or seven in air yards per attempt so he passed a lot that's how he got that air yards per game number up that sort of tom brady but still tom brady will air it out matt ryan it appears his his arm strength has declined quite a bit and and it's exactly what julio jones let the world know when he left Atlanta so the air yardage bonus on each throw is more than appealing. It sets Gage up for an opportunity at a career year. And Tampa Bay, I mean, they scored the second most points per game last season, which was nearly 40% more than the Falkins. I'm buying Gage everywhere he's available. So the Bucks let the aging and Dama can sue walk. You know, understandable given that his age, but his play really hadn't declined. It was just,

it's more of his stamina. And I can relate to him. to that. But doing so without a replacement plan is not going to end well for Tampa Bay. You know, you look at their run defense from the past couple years and it's been thought of as immovable object. I mean, we even saw the Colts go into that matchup against them last year. And they didn't even want to run Jonathan Taylor because they just assumed that they would shut him down. Of course, later in the game, they just said, okay, let's give him the ball. And then he goes off. but, you know, that's neither here nor there. I'm telling you, William Goldston is no youngster himself.

He's also a replacement-level defender with nothing remotely close to the 35-year-old Sue's pass-rushing ability. If they enter next season with Goldston featured in the middle like he's some run-plugger, posing running backs, are going to punish his gap at a level, unlike anything we've seen against this defense in quite a while. Something definitely to keep in the back of our mind, especially early in the season when, like, in DFS,

a lot of people are going to go into this thinking, oh, the Buccaneers, I don't want to play a running back against them. No, no. If they're playing William Goldson in the middle, trust me, I'll be starting a lot of that run. running back in DFS. So, you know, bringing Cordero-Patterson in, turned out to be an outstanding fine to fill a gaping void

in the backfield for Atlanta last year. He posted the following ranks among running backs, the third-most fantasy points per route, the second-highest yards per route run, the fifth-most yards per target, the seventh-most receiving fantasy points per game, and the fifth most fantasy points per touch. So what gives?

Why would I even consider him on face point? Well, he also added the following ranks. The 30th most fantasy points per carry. The 39th most rise stream fantasy points per game. And the highest rate of negative or zero yardage gains. Almost like they were using a wide receiver at running back. Oh, wait, they were. The same masterminds at,

work decided that Tyler Al Jir was the answer. He's a big guy. We can all give him that much. So Al Jir, he was invited to the Com line. And he showed us he's slow with his 43rd percentile 40 time. And then he lacks explosiveness, his 37th percentile vertical. And he showed us his footwork, his spotty with a 41st percentile shuttle. Let's be honest. He was likely only drafted due to collecting 866 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, impressive, in seven games against Power 5 competition last year. I mean, not bad, right?

Yeah. Oh, oh, yeah. He played against top 75 run defenses in two of those games. And he ran for an average of 67.5 yards per game on 42 carries or 1.6 yards per carry. Actually, it's not right. Let me get that for you. Actually, 3.2 yards per carry. It doesn't matter.

he was shut down in both of those games against actual run defenses. If unimpressive athleticism and production reliant on a massive carry volume is your thing, Bon Appetit. Don't be surprised when Damien Williams takes over that backfield. Because I really don't think that they can use Cordero Patterson as a running back this year. It just didn't work. needs to be used as a wide receiver. So another reason to worry about Patterson's production are the improvements at receiver.

I mean, we may end up seeing Patterson uses a kick returner, which is where he's best. He's one of the best of all time. So let's look at it. So Drake London, he's a legit number one wide receiver. And Kyle Pitts didn't go anywhere. Elsewhere on the roster. Yeah, Brian Edwards. They added him.

I mean, it was essentially acquired for a used washing machine from the Raiders. And Alameday's Sekeas is still that annoying fly circling your burger. So who starts at Whiteout with London? I mean, obviously other than Kyle Pitts, he's basically a wide receiver, but that is classified as a tie-in, which is important. So Edwards, he flamed out in Las Vegas for a reason. plenty of athleticism, but no ball skills. That was the same problem at South Carolina.

He hasn't improved one bit. A change of scenery is not going to fix that problem. Zakias has been trashed unless the defense puts a cover six on the field, which isn't very often. After pits in London, out and Tate could be the guy. Tate is a 50-50 possession receiver but with nothing close to the after-the-catch bullying skills of London

or a little less bullying and a lot more athleticism from pits. Best of all, he'll provide the Falcons with skill versus cover one, cover two,

cover three, cover six. The sample size is small, but it's more than enough to show that He knows what he's doing against these coverage shows. And Tate deserved a shot in the starting lineup with Sinci, obviously prior to Jamar Chase being drafted,

which there's just no room for him anymore. But he's going to get that in Atlanta. Join me next week when our focus centers on the breakouts and faceplants from the AFC and NFC best. So stinky. Thank you.