Fantasy Football Daily - Hard Count with Wes Huber: 2022 Breakouts & Faceplants in the AFC and NFC West

Episode Date: July 5, 2022

In the latest episode of Wes Huber's new series, Hard Count, he touches on the AFC and NFC West, looking at possible breakout players and busts from each division. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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again and again and again. Santa gets cookies. You get Rees. Nothing else is Rees. Omaha. I'm your host, Wes Huber. Our attention is locked onto the breakouts and faceplants from the AFC and NFC West to conclude the series. We need to be patient, not with the Broncos offense.

We need to be patient until the populations of the world realized that the Broncos have a real quarterback for the first time since 2016. Brace yourself here. The last 97 games for Denver have been started by a list that includes Trevor Simeon, probably the best of the bunch, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenham, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Drew Locke, Jeff Driscoll, Brett Rippin, Teddy Bridgewater, and Kendall Hinton. It's a collection that toss 1.2 touchdowns per interception, and average 0.34 fantasy points per dropback.

Russell Wilson holds a career 3.2 touchdowns per interception and 0.45 fantasy points per dropback. In fact, he's never averaged less than 0.4 fantasy points per dropback in an NFL season. That previous list of Denver quarterbacks averaged 5.7 victories and a 35% winning percentage. The professor, he led Seattle to an average of 11 victories and a 68% winning percentage. Yet, even in half-PPR formats, we're seeing Giovante Williams consistently lasting into the third round of redrafts. It's high time. We all deal with the fact that backfield time shares are here to stay. The Melvin Gordon fear is a bit out of control.

Jay Will, he recorded a 91.3 elusive rating as a rookie that was only bested by Rashad Penny and Nick Chubb. His target rate of 10.2% was 33% higher than he. m g-3s and his 1.21 yards per route run was 30% higher. So here's a list of what the Broncos are going to do this season. They're going to force opponents to respect the pass. Their nasty defense is going to keep defenses from eating up the clock. And the Russell Wilson let offense is going to score a lot more points. And they're going to, nearly double their winning percentage. Even if Gordon plays well,

Javante is going to eat. What am I missing here? Finding a weakness on the Denver defense is quite a challenge. With second year phenom, Patrick Certain on one side of the field, and Kwan Williams in the slot, quarterbacks are going to attack the left sideline. where we find Ronald Darby planted. Last season, Darby got a break with quarterbacks attacking Certain's side, attempting to take advantage of a rookie.

It didn't end well at all. Certain, he posted the 10th lowest targeted passer rating in the NFL among 77 perimeter cornerbacks. Darby, he permitted the 22nd most yards per coverage snap, the 10th. most air yards per coverage snap and allowed the ninth highest deep completion rate. Cutting Darby this season would put a dead cap hit on Denver of 15.5 million. But the Broncos, they have an out clause after the season where they can cut him with only a 3 million dead cap hit on the 23 books. count on seeing GM George Patton pouncing on that opportunity at season's end.

Look, Marquez Valdez Scantling has been playing in the shadow of Devante Adams throughout his career. At 6 foot 4 and 206 pounds, he is one of only three wide receivers to stand at least 75 inches tall and post a sub 4-4-second 40-yard dash time over the last 10 seasons at the NFL Combine. The other two examples, D.K. Matcalf, Christian Watson. MVS and James Lofton are the only Packers in franchise history to average 15 plus yards per reception and at least 25 receptions during their first four seasons. Vaudes Scantley, he led the NFL with 20.9 yards per reception. reception two seasons ago. Since 2018, MBS has registered the fourth most completions,

18, and touchdowns, eight, of at least 40 yards. Based on the total cash involved, Vald as Scantling, will earn 95% of the 2022 investment the chiefs are devoting to Skymore, Nicole Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster combined. Since Hardman and Smith-Schuster will come off the books next season, the three-year deal he signed tells us what we need to know about the anticipated involvement that Andy Reed and GM Brett Veach envisioned for MBS. With Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and DeMarcus Robinson playing elsewhere this season,

74% of the target share devoted to 2021 wide receivers is up for grabs. That is Scantling is going to have a golden opportunity alongside more to secure a major chunk of Patrick Mahom's attention for years to come. How MVS is being ignored until the middle of the eighth round is beyond comprehension. people just can't get past their Juju Smith-Schuster infatuation. Speaking of the devil, and he appears, one season after resigning with the Steelers for the veteran minimum, when literally no other team wanted him on their roster, the chiefs signed Juju Smith-Schuster for $45,000 over the veteran minimum to join the team.

When Tyree Kiel was traded to the Dolphins, the collective minds across fantasy had visions of delusion and grandeur that this replacement level wide receiver would be Patrick Mahomes's new number one. That was until KC drafted Skymore in the second round and signed MVS to a three-year $30 million deal. How we all jumped to Smith Schuster over McCull Hardman, before those additions really didn't make much sense to begin with. Hardman is no superstar. But I think we can agree. Well, I'm not sure if everyone does agree here, but that's what I'm trying to get across. Hardman, he's a level above the inadequacy of Juju.

And more, he was drafted to make an immediate impact in this offense. he's going to be the primary inside wide receiver. And no other tied in has run more routes detached the last two seasons than Travis Kelsey. Smith Schuster created 1.28 yards per route run the last two seasons, which ranks as the 78th best mark. If you couldn't thrive underneath for the late career version of Big Ben, you were not going to suddenly sprout wings as the wide receiver four in another city. Does a worse value exist in redrafts than juju as a fourth round pick?

A late round pick, sure. Yeah, I'd be all over that. But you won't catch me betting anything close to that capital on a Smith-Schuster revival. People are seriously out there drafting that dumpy kid ahead of Amman Ross St. Brown, Rashad Bateman, Devonza Smith, and Russell Gage. What the fire truck. So the top perimeter threats for Derek Carr, the last five seasons include in 2021, it was Brian Edwards. And obviously the guy is no longer on the roster.

Henry Ruggs the third, no longer on any roster, excuse me. And the year prior, we had Nelson Aguilar, the year before that, Tyrell Williams, the year before that, the final season of Jordy Nelson's career. No knock on him, but it was his last year. So obviously not 100% Jordy Nelson. And then we have 2017, the age 30 Michael Crabtree, plus the absolute Amari Cooper face plant. But the two years prior, that crab tree and Cooper combo looked like gold, with both averaging over a thousand receiving yards and catching 45% of Carr's touchdowns. Carr appeared to be set down a path to becoming a top fantasy quarterback.

That might be hard to believe, but it's a fact. in spite of near 10% improvements and completion percentage and yards per attempt during his last four seasons compared to his first four, Carr has failed to tap back into scoring 17 plus fantasy points per game through the air since that 2016 season. That includes last season when Carr threw for over 5,100 yards. Carr, he's been a top eight quarterback versus cover one, cover two, and cover four of the last three seasons. That's no easy task. And Dave Ziegler, he brought in the top wide receiver in the NFL and Carr's former Fresno State teammate, Devante Adams. We all know this. Adams is the top cover one wide receiver in the world. He's top five against cover four.

and his presence should greatly improve Carr's cover three numbers since he's a top three practitioner. And don't get lost in the narrative that Carr doesn't have the arm to air it out. That's simply untrue. His 8.4 air yards per attempt last year ranked 12th and his 317.4 air yards per game ranked fourthmost. Sands the incessant injuries that have plagued his career, and I've got to admit, at this point, they're quite frustrating. The most significant factor working against Darren Waller is the 2022 schedule. The Raiders will play the second most difficult schedule this season. They play the Broncos and the Chargers twice.

the Rams, Saints, Patriots, 49ers, Cardinals, Colts. I mean, these are all tough matchups. In addition, Waller's days is the top option in Las Vegas, Argonzo, with Adams on the roster. Not to mention the fact that Hunter Rimfro's emergence last season occurred when Waller only played 10 full games and failed to catch more than two passes. after week 11. Don't forget that Waller only average 5.7 receptions, 67.7 yards per game,

and scored two touchdowns in the nine games prior to being injured. I mean, those aren't terrible numbers, but he's being drafted in the mid-third as though he's about to catch 90 passes for 1,200 yards. We'll be lucky to get 65 receptions in 750 yards from Waller. I am calling for a breakout for Derek Carr simply due to the presence of Devante Adams.

Adams is, there may not be another wide receiver in the NFL that can manipulate safeties like he can. And I'm talking about elite safeties. It's nearly impossible to shut Devante Adams down. But Waller, he's being overdrafted and it's not even close. Yes, some reports do suggest Josh Palmer has already been running with the ones. We were already presented with evidence, though, that the 21-third-rounder was set for a breakout this season. Okay, so over his first 12 games, Palmer averaged 1.3 receptions, 14 yards per game, and that accounted for 3.15 fantasy points per game.

But over his last five, his receptions per game spiked by 66%, his yards per game by 62%, and he scored three of four touchdowns. His FPG increased by 72%. We'll need to wait for Keenan Allen's play to decline for Palmer, maximizes gains. But a sophomore breakout is definitely on the menu here. Before anyone attempts to call out Gerald Everett for a poor 21st, season. Let's get the facts straight first. Everett's early season involvement with Seattle was derailed by COVID missing three games. When he returned, Russell Wilson was out for the next three games. In those three games with Gino Smith under center, Everett averaged two receptions

19 yards and caught zero touchdowns for 3.9 fantasy points per game. During his last 10 games, when Wilson rejoined the offense, or excuse me, during his last 10 games working with Wilson, he averaged 3.9 receptions, 39.7 yards, 0.3 touchdowns for 9.7 FPG. That's the 60% boost in FPG output. That number would have placed him 13th best last season. It was more than Micahisickey, Hunter Henry, and Pat Fryermuth, and 18% more than the guy he's replacing, Jared Cook. So joining the Chargers, you know, when a quarterback throws for over 5,000 yards,

yes, there was an extra game, but that really doesn't matter, 5,000 yards. I mean, 4,700 yards, who really cares? I mean, a list of receivers are going to be fed well. And, you know, Chargers, tight ends, they accounted for a combined 90 receptions, 902 yards, and eight touchdowns last season. By the way, we can grab Everett in a 13th round of redrafts as the tight end 18. Up to this point, the breakout predictions have all been relatively deep calls. Even the Giovante Williams call since, I mean, the guys,

lasting into the third. I mean, the, the red flag, I mean, the flag to take notice had had to be raised. It really did. But I've decided I'd get one completely obvious selection, and it's going to be Marquise Brown. So after paying his tuition as a true freshman at the College of Canyons by working at six flags, Hollywood played two seasons for Oklahoma. So Brown's true Jewish, year was when Kyler Murray threw for over 4,300 yards, 42 touchdowns versus only seven interceptions. And Murray fed Antonio Brown's cousin, Hollywood, with a 75 reception, 1,790 yard, 10 touchdown line, and 26.2 fantasy points per game. With Arizona determined, to sign Murray and lock him up to a long-term deal,

they made an ingenious trade sending the 23rd pick to Baltimore in exchange for Hollywood and the 100th pick. Murray and Brown are best friends. That's probably not breaking news. However, don't assume this reconnection wasn't the intention all along for this pair of longtime friends. they had been training together long before this trade was made. And they had both decided they were determined to play together again. Envisioning a Cardinals team was some combination of Hollywood, Newk, Zach Ertz, Trey McBride, A.J. Green, Rondell Moore on the field together,

some combination is just fire. Brown's numbers were already impressed. after a breakout 21 season. But don't count on those stats falling even an inch working with his bro Montana again. We may even see a slight uptick. So on defense, let's get this out there, the tragedy of Jeff Gladney's death. I mean, it transcends any football discussion. But as for the 22 outlook for the Arizona defense, it appears Marco Wilson will once again start

at left cornerback. Among 77 qualified outside corners, Wilson allowed the fifth most fantasy points per coverage snap and the second highest targeted passer rating. You know, Wilson already faced planted as a rookie. Expect nothing different each week when evaluating the matchups against the Cardinals.

So, in order to assist the Rams to their second Super Bowl championship in team history, Cam Acres returned to the active roster 158 days after tearing his Achilles. When he hit the field as a rookie, to average 113 yards per game over his last seven games, the headline grabbers, they anointed him as a top 10 running back. But when you put everything on the line for your team to win a Super Bowl, but you fail to showcase the same explosion, which, let's be real, is entirely expected early in a return from an Achilles

injury, those same headline whores, they proclaim your career to be over. First of all, Acres went up against three of the top run defenses during his three games back, not to mention three of the hottest teams in the NFL between Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Cincinnati. Second, if Sean McVeigh had any concerns to Acres' his 22 outlook, he would have drafted an early running back since the Rams, they're in win right now mode.

Drafting Kyron Williams, well, I mean, definitely offering plenty of promise with the 164th pick It doesn't qualify. Terrell Henderson has been a significant disappointment since L.A. took him in the third round in 2019. More on that in a minute. But this backfield, it belongs to Acres. The explosion will return. Watch it happen for yourself. Acres will dictate the touches for one of the highest scoring offenses this season.

and lock it in. It's going to happen. So Dorelle Dorele Henderson, he got his shot at feature touches with Acres out. The results were quite disappointing. He ranked 64th best in elusive rating. So elusive rating is a stat that measures the players work through contact and their tackle shedding ability.

And he had the 65th best rank in yards per round. outrun. And those rates are in line with his 2020 season. Yes, he scored seven touchdowns in his first seven games. And that really highlights the benefit provided by playing in this Rams offense. But let's take a dose of reality here. We're seeing a touchdown-dependent plotter being selected in the 11th round. You know, It never hurts to chase after the overlooked half of a potential positional competition, especially in an elite offense. Just make sure you factor in the source on those career on the decline headlines,

and make sure a competition actually exists. When Kyron Williams returns from his broken foot, Henderson will be in danger of falling to third on the death chart. I mean, does that sound like an intelligent 11th round investment? Elijah Mitchell missed six games due to injury last season. To counter those minor injuries, some of them were, I'll admit a little more than minor, but running backs historically, they put on extra weight, extra padding. and I'm expecting Mitchell to put the 20 pounds back on that he cut when he joined the 49ers.

I've worked closely with Bobby Sloick, Sam Fran's new offensive coordinator, for several years at PFF. He was my original coverage mentor, pin it to the board that he's going to set out to take full advantage of having the top run blocking O line and the top run blacking tied end in George Kittle. The 49ers, they've had a sharp decline in the percentage of two tight-in sets the last two seasons. That's going to change. The combination of Mitchell bulking back up and the utilization of more multiple tight-in sets providing better protection for Mitchell should assist in the sophomore. more back towards staying off the trainer's table.

Everything else is already in place. Mitchell's rookie season, top six volume and rushing attempts per game, resulting in top six rushing FPG and top six touches per game. They boast an elite defense to maximize the time of possession for the offense. We can draft Mitchell as the RB23. in the mid-fifth of redrafts. If you can name 22 other running backs with a better 20-2020 situation, I'll retire as a fantasy analyst, but I'll save you the trouble.

Only 18 feasibly exist. Mitchell should be drafted at the very least in the fourth round. So for those who haven't been keeping tabs, San Francisco signed top 15 cornerback, Trevarious Ward. They'll get the top 10 cornerback talents, at least based on 20-20 numbers, of Jason Verrett back from injury,

and they return a top five free safety in Jimmy Ward. Arguments, and I'm talking, the compelling variety, can be made that Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are the top edge and inside backer in the league. Jukwiski's Tarkisky's tariff. is now in Philadelphia. So the signing of strong safety, George Odom,

is quite a big deal. It remains to be seen if it'll be bigger for the 49ers or for Odom. Odom will be surrounded by the most talented group of his career. But Odom was on the cusp of top 15 coverage

just this past season. His responsibilities were on lockdown, only handing out 12 receptions all year. big things are in store for the 49ers. And I'm talking potentially bigger than last year, provided Trey Lance shows off those talents that we've seen on tape. So if a Baker-Mayfield deal is made,

sure, D.K. Metcalf should do well. If Gino Smith is the starter, Medcalf will be okay. If Drew Hartlock is the starter, hit the panic button. But no scenario unfolds where the 2022 season is going to cash in value on a DK investment. And this breakout, not a face plan, this is a breakout call here, is aimed at my dynasty Bolsheviks. To be honest, I'll be quite shocked if Seattle trades for Mayfield. It may happen, but I'll still be shocked. I mean, he has the potential to do well enough to derail the Hawks' chance at getting a top 23 quarterback.

Metcalfe plus Tyler Lockett at the disposal of a Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud or Tyler Van Dyke, or even Will Levis, if we see some some. developmental advances to his game. I mean, that's going to sell a lot of tickets in Emerald City. That alone is worthy of a market value investment in Metcalf. I'm talking pay in Dynasty, pay what the market is saying just so we can get him with a better quarterback next year. Of course, Seattle's going to have to re-sign him to a contract.

We want to see that. I can't imagine a scenario where they, they eliminate having a potential top 10 wide receiver in an offense for one of the top quarterbacks in a just completely loaded 2023 draft. Like I said, worthy of the investment, put it on the board. Noah Phant, he may be the only guy in the world pushing for Drew Locke to be the starter. Fanton Locke, they make a solid DFS combo when paired against a defense, blindly tossing cover three their way. Cover three is the key word there because Locke is horrendous

against every other type of coverage. However, we saw last season that even the cover three devotees like Gus Bradley when he was with Las Vegas, they altered their coverage rotation to punish Locke's high school level football IQ. Gino Smith just does not target his tight ends and history is our evidence. Even if he did, Gino has thrown more career interceptions than touchdowns. He's completed less than 60% of his attempts. He's averaged less than seven yards per attempt. Look, the third option in a Gino Smith offense is not a wise investment. I'll pass on Noah Fenton redraft.