Fantasy Football Daily - Hard Count with Wes Huber: 2022 Training Camp Quarterback Battles

Episode Date: July 12, 2022

In the latest episode of Wes Huber's new series, Hard Count, Wes (@WesHuberNFL) examines intriguing QB battles in upcoming training camp. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Louis 18, Omaha. West Huber from FantasyPoints.com. We'll focus our gaze on the approaching quarterback competitions and training camp later this month. Let's start in San Francisco. So we'll follow the money. Trey Lance, he's in the second year of his rookie contract. 2.2 million.

It's the 45th most cash paid to a quarterback for the 22 season. It's the 24th largest cap hit. By the end of his rookie contract, at least through four years, he'll have earned 34.1 million. And obviously, he'll have the 2025-year option since he was the third pick of the 21 draft. Then we have Jimmy Garapolo. It's very possible Jimmy G could be traded. But as it stands right now, he's going to earn 25.6 million. If they do trade him or cut him, he'll count 1.4 million as a dead cap hit.

It's the 11th most cash paid to a quarterback, and it's the seventh largest cap hit. He has an annual per game active bonus of 47,000, which that adds up pretty quickly, and his no trade clause expired after the end of the 21 seasons. So the 49ers, they're 4 million estimated under the cap for this season after the cut down. And it's the third fewest dollars. And they're going to need to cut about 26.5 million, which is just a tad over what Garapelow is owned. So we were given an 86 dropback 71 passing attempt and 39 carry look at Lance last year. So if qualified, he would have ranked third.

best in fantasy points per opportunity, opportunity being passing attempts and rushing attempts. And he was seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Add in the 11th most rushing FPG, the 12 highest passer rating, the third most yards per attempt, and the second most air yards per attempt. So that high yards per attempt and air yard per attempt rank combo will come into play later with a few of these other competitions. It was such a pleasant surprise to see Lance only allow a 3.5 sack rate. That was fifth best.

And he took 5.3 rushing attempts per game. That was the six most. So Garapolo obviously led the 49ers to a playoff road wins over the Cowboys and the Packers. And Sam Fran, they only lost by three points to the Rams in the conference championship. However, Grapolo completed less than 60% of his temps during the playoffs and only through two touchdowns versus three interceptions. His 72.7 playoff pass rating was 26 points below is 98.7 from the regular season. On one side of the coin, Jimmy G. posted the 13th most fantasy points per dropback,

the six highest passer rating under pressure, the second most yards per attempt, and eighth highest completion percentage. On the other, he only averaged the 20 most, 20,000. most fantasy points per game. His 1.3 on the ground was 30th, so that was definitely a big reason. And the 32nd most air yards per attempt, and his sack rate was nearly twice as high as Lances. We still need more data to evaluate Lance's coverage reading skill. But Garapolo, he's been a top 20 coverage reading quarterback across the board over the last three seasons. But his specialties are cover three and cover four.

So as far as an outlook, 25.6 million cap hit or 1.4 million dead cap hit. And in that scenario, say you cut him or trade him, you put your 1.3 pick from last season with drool-worthy tools on the field. Honestly, it's not even close.

Lance may struggle at times on some of his intermediate throws, but he is one of the strongest arms on the planet, and he runs the ball with the power of Jerome Bettis. Go watch his college tape. So the decision is Lance here, and it's in a landsline. Let's move on to the Atlanta Falcons. So Marietta, he's owed $6.75 million,

following the money here, 6.75 million dead cap hits, the 20th most cash paid to a quarterback, the 30th largest quarterback cap hit. In 2023, he'll be owed $12 million, and that cap hit will go down to $2.5 million. And in 2023, he'll be owed a $3 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the new league year. So for Ritter, since they took him with the 74th pick, he's only making $705K this year. So that's the 106th most cash paid to a quarterback.

and it's the same rank in the quarterback cap hit. But they took him in the third, so no 2026 fifth year option. So the Falcons, they're 12.4 million under the 22 cap after the cutdown, which is 13th. And they will need to cut down about 15.1 million. Since paying Marriota, his salary is the same as the dead cap hit. Cutting him is just not an option. So Marietta, he only attempted two passes last season. But during his first three seasons, it may come as a surprise to learn that he averaged 9.7 air yards per attempt.

His 10.1 air yards per attempt in 2016 would have ranked fifth most versus 2021 quarterbacks. That number did drop down to 7.9 in 2018, which would have tied Justin Herbert for the 26 most. this past year. However, Marriota always registered a healthy yards per attempt average. His career 7.46 yards per attempt is the exact number Herbert put up last season, which was the 12th most. And with Marietta's rushing upside, what went wrong with the Titans? I mean, for one, the coaches that drafted him, head coach Ken Wise and Hunt, offensive coordinator, Jason Michael, they were fired after his rookie season in 2015. And John Robinson was promoted to GM for the next season.

So Terry Robisky, he was brought in as the new offensive coordinator. When Robisky was fired after the 2017 season, Marriota had thrown 62 touchdowns versus 35 interceptions, completed 62% of his attempts, and had led to him. Tennessee to an 18 and 14 record during Robiski's two seasons. That's not bad for a rookie. Mike Vrabel, excuse me, and Matt LaFleur, they came in with zero loyalty to Marietta. So his days were essentially numbered despite the fact that his wide receivers included Corey Davis in a list of nobodies. They did draft A.J. Brown in 2019. but Mary only played with him for six games before he was benched.

So during his five seasons in Tennessee, his passer ratings were 91.5, 95.6, 81.2. That was his downseason. 92.3. 92.3. Yeah. And he really came into his own as a rusher in 2018 with some high end elucidness. It's just criminal. what happened to him in Tennessee. So as for Desmond Ritter. So he enters the picture with career top 10 fantasy points per dropback versus cover three, cover four, and cover six, and also inside the red zone at Cincinnati. He also supplied the 15th best touchdown to interception ratio, the 15th highest passing

touchdown rate, the seventh most air yards per attempt, and the 13th most most. And the 13th most, overall fantasy points per drawback. Ritter was never elusive on the ground, but he did run for just over 2,750 yards and 28 touchdowns during his Cincinnati career. As far as an outlook, what's projected to happen during camp, Ritter would have would like to have everyone believe he's the most game ready of the 22 quarterbacks, but that's really not saying much at all here. Marriota has a team-friendly contract, and he's going to make it very difficult for Ritter to take the field this season without some outstanding development. Again, Marietta 100% wins this job. We will obviously need to revisit the situation before next season.

So things got really interesting for the Carolina Panthers with the addition of Baker Mayfield. So let's follow the money. Donald is going to make 18.9 million this year, and he has an 18.9 million dead cap hit. It's the 17th most cash paid to a quarterback, the 12th largest quarterback cap hit. He will have earned 49.4 million from his rookie contract as the third pick of the 2018 draft. Mayfield, he's going to come in. He's going to earn 4.9 million, the 4.9. million dead cap hit. So 25th, 25th most cash paid to a quarterback, the 25th, 27th largest quarterback

cap hit, and he will have earned 37.9 million from his rookie contracts. So you might notice the around 12 million difference between their rookie contracts, mostly due to Donald's hefty signing bonus, even though Mayfield was the first pick in 2018. So Mayfield, he was originally do a fully, fully guaranteed 18.9 million in 2022. But in order to deal him, the Browns gave him a $10.5 million signing bonus. And Mayfield, he did agree to a $3.5 million pay cut, but he has incentives built in. So they reportedly include making the postseason, winning a certain amount of games, and some performance-based slash statistics. But, It'll all come down to winning the job, obviously, if he's going to get any of those.

So the Panthers, they're $20.4 million under the 22 cap after the cut down. So that's the second most. They will need to cut down $9.6 million, but that's going to be easy. So for Donald, we want to crunch the numbers here and see what we're looking at. And it's not good at all for Donald. Out of 40 qualifiers, Donald ranked 36th in fantasy points per dropback, 37th in both overall passerating and passerating under pressure, 33rd in yards per attempt, and air yards per attempt. And 31st in SACRate. His best fantasy points per dropback rank against a single coverage scheme is cover six.

and it's where he's thrown one touchdown versus three interceptions with an out-of-football level 6.3 yards per attempt. Mayfield, so during the 2018 combine, Mayfield's throw velocity was measured at 60 miles per hour. That's not only velocity in the 90th percentile, It's second to only Josh Allen for the highest from the last 10 seasons at the Combine. Darnold didn't throw. Baker has a cannon, make no mistake.

I'm not a fan of excuses passed along by NFL quarterbacks, however. And that's exactly what we got from Mayfield this past year. So the excuses and reasons for optimism, those type of determinations are for the analysts of the world. putting the memory of his constant references to pain and his non-throwing shoulder. Mayfield did average the eighth most air yards per attempt and with a barren wide receiver room in Cleveland. So the 18th most yards per attempt with that group is actually a reason for optimism. Since he doesn't use his legs, we just can't see Mayfield allow another season anywhere close to the fourth highest sack rate that we saw last season, and especially that Cleveland

O'Line was pretty good. It was banged up and then it had the COVID situation, so that's part of it. But we just need to see him understand or to display some better blitz pickup recognition prior to the snap. He didn't do a great job of that last year. Unlike Donald's mess, Mayfield is a top 20 quarterback versus cover one, cover two, four, and six. But his particular specialty is cover one. It's where he's thrown 30% of his career touchdowns on 22% of dropbacks. DJ Moore will easily be the highest upside wide receiver he's ever played with in the NFL. So the outlook, three competitions and three landslides. Baker Mayfield, he was brought in. Obviously, they're going to go through the motions with, with,

a competition just based off how much they're going to be paying Darnold. They probably want to see Darnold win this competition, just so they feel better about paying him so much money. But this is 100% Baker-Mayfield's job. Darnold will never see another job as a QB1. It's fork status for the kid. Seattle Seahawks, short of trading for Jimmy Garapolo. Let's follow the money.

Gino Smith, he's going to earn $3.5 million. There's only a $500,000 dead cap hit, but this guy's a really good number two quarterback. I mean, he knows the system where he's not going to get cut. If he makes the roster, he's going to make $1.7 million. And he has a week one bonus of $5,000. He has a per game active bonus of $65,000. That adds up. It's a little over a million.

It's the 30th most cash paid to a quarterback, the 36th most or 36 largest QB cap hit, and he'll be an unrestricted free agent next season. So we know they got Drew Locke and the Russell Wilson trade. He's going to be paid $1.5 million this year. Actually, he's still under his rookie contract since he was the 42nd pick of the 2019 draft. It's the 56th most cash paid to a quarterback. The 59th largest quarterback hit. He will have earned $7.2 million from his rookie contract.

He'll be an unrestricted free agent next season. The Seahawks, they're $15.9 million under the estimated 22 cap after the cutdown, which is the eighth most. They will need to cut $10.1 million. Again, shouldn't be a problem. So get ready for this, though. Because Gino Smith put up the seventh most fantasy points per opportunity. and the 15th most fantasy points per dropback last season. His 103.0 passer rating was only a fraction of a point below Russell Wilson's 103.1.

It was the sixth highest passer rating last season. Gino doesn't have a strong arm, as evidenced by the six fewest air yards per attempt. But he did manage the 13th most yards per attempt and the fifth highest completion percentage. Scream's game manager, but isn't that exactly what Seattle needs? Smith's issues were in organizing his blitz pickups, similar to Baker Mayfield last year. He surrendered the highest sack rate. Doesn't help that the Seattle line, isn't that great? And Gino was another cover one specialist.

His passer rating in yards per attempt, both improved by 15% versus cover one. Both of those 15% improvements are top 10. he's done good work against cover six not much to write home about versus cover two three or four so drew lock join joins darned as first or second day picks that failed to make it four seasons with their drafting team heartlock generated the seventh fewest overall fantasy points per dropback the eighth lowest passer rating and the 12th highest sack rate last season. He led the NFL with 10.4 air yards per attempt, but posted the 21st most yards per attempt. That's significant.

Locke has been one of the five worst cover one and cover four quarterbacks for three straight seasons. Before you get too excited about that 21st ranked yards per attempt, understand the wide receivers he was playing with. Locke's only saving grace is cover three. But we saw last year that even the cover three heavy raiders, they schemed away from cover three on obvious passing downs against Denver when Locke was starting against them. Defenses, they are fully aware it's his only strength.

Bottom line, Donald and Andy Dalton are the only quarterbacks to create fewer overall fantasy points per dropback the last three seasons. As far as an outlook, four competitions, one clear outcome. The Hawks will not make the playoffs no matter who they start. They really don't want to make the playoffs. They just need to field a palatable team to sell a few tickets to get them to pick in the top ten of the 23 draft. Both quarterbacks are capable of accomplishing that. the choice here is simple. It's Smith 100%. He's easily the superior option on this roster.

Moving on to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Depending on who you ask, we really have a three-headed situation here. Let's follow the money. Trubisky, he's owned $6.3 million with a $5.3 million dead cap hit. It's the 22nd most cash paid to a quarterback. It's the 33rd largest quarterback cap hit. So as far as incentives go, and this is a major portion of Trubisky's contract. So if he plays on 60% of offensive snaps, he gets a $1 million bonus plus a $1 million roster bonus for 2023. If he plays 70%, he gets 1.5 million plus a $4 million roster bonus for 2023. 80%, 2 million, and they make the playoffs, he gets a $4 million paycheck.

Okay, so 70% plus the playoffs, he gets 2.5 million, 80% plus the playoffs, again, like I said, 4 million. And then if he makes the Pro Bowl at 250K, his 2023 salary is $8 million with a 2.6 million dead cap hit. It's not too bad. But, you know, they'll probably keep him around anyway. Kenny Pickett, 20th pick in this last draft. He's going to earn 8.1 million this year. It's the 19th most cash paid to a quarterback. The 45th largest quarterback cap hit. And by the end of his rookie contract, his four years, he'll have earned 14.1 million, which is a lot less than we saw from Donald and Mayfield.

But he does have the 2026 fifth year option since he was taken in the first. Then we have Mason Rudolph. He's going to earn $3 million this year. He's going to have a $1 million dead cap hit, which is nothing. He'll earn the 37th most cash paid to a quarterback, and it's the 31st largest quarterback cap hit. So the Steelers, they are an estimated $13.8 million. under the 22 cap after the cut down, and they'll need to cut, which is the 11th, 11th most.

They'll need to cut down 16.6 million, and that's easy-peasy. So let's crunch the numbers. Trubisky. Unlike Marietta, Mitchell Trubisky was a partial bus for Chicago. That said, his 2018 was entirely impressive. And he really didn't deserve serving as a backup last. season after having a decent 2020 season. It's inconsistency that proved to be Trubisky's undoing.

Two quality years, two disaster seasons. And an 0-and-2 playoff record led to his undoing with the Bears. Also, unlike Marietta, Trubisky never showcased elusiveness on the ground. Even more telling Trubisky ranks outside the top 25 quarterbacks the last three seasons

against cover 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. For Kenny Pickett, it took every bit of his collegiate effort, but Pickett managed to drop his career fantasy points per dropback ranks versus cover 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and within the red zone

to inside the top 25 quarterbacks among all of them with eligibility last season. So we're talking a huge number of quarterbacks. His top marks were top 15 ranks against cover 2 and 4, but he was also 19th versus cover 3, 17th versus cover 6. His 2.6 touchdowns to interceptions ratio landed at 25th best, and his passing touchdown rate was 8.5.5.

So his arm is on another level stronger than a Darnold, a Daniel Jones, a Jared Gough. We could throw Mack Jones around that level. Yet his 24th rank in air yards per attempt is not a box check towards listing pickets arm strength is special by no means. I mean, Pickett is certainly no slouch on the ground. He compiled over 1,450 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns during his career, but his per carry efficiency lands in the 52nd percentile, and much of that work was collected on scrambles. Not a bad thing, just not a guy that we need to be counting on

for a lot of rushing success in the NFL. It's pretty common to see college quarterbacks gain yardage on the ground on scrambles. So Mason Rudolph, you know, based off of what he thinks he's been told and by the quotes that are out there, he believes he will have a chance to start here. In all fairness, though, Rudolph has been a better quarterback than Donald or Drew Locke, Short of injuries to Tribisky and Pickett, though, a realistic chance at starts will only be possible with the change of scenery since the Steelers, they've already shown their strikes here.

They go out and they sign Tribisky, a couple teams, they were looking at him so that, you know, they had to be aggressive there. And then they also obviously drafted Pickett in the first round. I think Rudolph has the potential to, be a stopgap starting quarterback for a team, but I mean, he's obviously not a quarterback of the future for any franchise. So as far as the outlet goes, it certainly appears that the Steelers intend to allow Pickett to develop on the sideline to begin the year at least. But that's a window that should allow Chibisky to hold on to the role if for no other reason than to give Pittsburgh a shot at the playoffs.

However, this is the first true competition on this list that could be decided on the last day at camp. The call is clearly in favor of Trubisky. I would say that it's about 75% that he enters the season as the starter. But Pickett, he could take that job if he erupts during preseason action. So that's something that we need to monitor closely. With these wide receivers, they have a very very big. very good wide receiver room. I mean, we're talking about Deontay Johnson, Chase Claypool, and oh, man, I love Claypool.

If he's going to start on the inside, that is, talk about mismatch. Then, you know, they brought in George Pickens, who, if, you know, he had gone in the draft last year, he would have been one of the top, you know, five or so wide receivers off the board. And don't forget about Calvin Austin and the third. This kid is a, I mean, talk about fire. Cracker. This kid could surprise a lot of people, and I haven't even mentioned Pat Friar Meath. The issue in Pittsburgh is the O-line. They need to address that next season. And that's another reason why I think Chibisky is the starter this year. You don't want to see your first round quarterback getting hurt because you failed to address the O-line and the draft. Okay, so this is the one competition that I'm definitely going to not going to have everyone in agreement here.

and it's not what you think. So just allow me to get through it before you, you know, completely overreact. The Tennessee Titans. No, it's not Ryan Tanna Hill versus Malik Willis. No. Let's just follow the money. Tana Hill, he's making $29 million this year. That's nothing compared to the 57.4 million dead cap hit.

It's the eighth most cash paid to a quarterback, which is, that makes sense. but it's the largest quarterback cap hit, 38.6 million. And after this season, there's a 2023 out clause where he only has an 18.8 million dead cap hit. So for Willis, he was the 86th pick, that 705K. It's the 106 most cash paid to a quarterback, 106th largest quarterback cap hit. He's a third round pick, so no 2026 fifth year option. The Titans, they're 11.2 million under the estimated 22 cap after the cutdown, which is the 16th most. Now, they need to cut 15.8 million.

That's a little more of a concern, but, you know, still should be able to get that done easy during cut for the cutdowns. So Tana Hill, let's crunch the numbers. The 2021 season was easily the worst of Tana Hill's Tennessee career. His play was below the season Marietta submitted, efficiency-wise, the year prior to Vrable benching him. However, Tanny nonetheless led the Titans to the top record in the AFC and the number one seed in the playoffs. There's something to that. Double, however, Robinson, John Robinson, shipped AJB off this offseason, and what I feel very strong. strongly is the worst trade in NFL history.

Tanyhill provided the 25th most overall fantasy points per dropback out of 40 qualifiers. His air yards per attempt ranked 28th and his yards per attempt landed 23rd best. Losing Corey Davis was a big deal. Tany Hill's tape, though, was better than the numbers. Working with a bottom 5-0 line played a massive role in his inefficient season. and the seventh worst sack rate plagued Tannahill. As always, Tannahill proved elusive on the ground, and he posted the highest rate of team touchdowns inside the five for a quarterback.

I believe it was 37.5%. That's very high. And he did rank 14th best in completion percentage. Triple, however, the O line is no better. and Traylon Burks is no A.J. Brown. As far as Malik Willis, no quarterback came close to touching Willis's career college efficiency or elusiveness on the ground. His 2.13.1 elusive rating topped all quarterbacks and all running backs. Yes, he played more of a group of five schedule, but his coverage recognition ranks do not lie.

They were more impressive than pickets. At the forefront was the sixth best fantasy points per dropback overall and second best in the 22 class versus cover one. If you value arm cannons, only Sam Howell top Willis in the class of overall, in the class or overall in air yards per attempt. He was only behind Sam Howe in his deep level aggressiveness. And so it's a lot like Hassan Haskins. It's a matter of when, not if Willis becomes the new face of Tennessee. So as far as an outlook, the Titans have a decent fantasy playoff schedule.

And they play a light schedule on their first seven games, Sands when they play Buffalo in Week 2. Let's say they get out to a 5-2 record to begin the year. That's when they enter one of the most difficult five-game stretches of any team all season. They play the Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Eagles, and don't sleep on those Eagles either. If they aren't careful, Tennessee could enter Week 14 with a 5-7 record. Two of their last five are against the Chargers and the Cowboys. An 8-9 finish is not at all unrealistic.

Tanya Hill is the starter 100%. But prepare yourself for, Will is closing out the season if the playoffs are not in the cards. Make sure you use code Fantasy PTS, F-A-N-T-A-S-Y-P-T-S for up to $100 in bonus cash when you sign up for a new account at underdog.com and $10 of every subscription and sign-up will be donated to the Best Friends Animal Society, a non-lethal shelter, and use promo code Big Ten 10 22, B-I-G-T-E-N-22, or SEC 22 for 20% off our new college football package that offers Devi, CFF, college football DFS, and betting to score more fantasy points.