Fantasy Football Daily - Hey Kittle Kittle + Trey's Touchdowns and Bonus CFP Lock of the Century | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There are no more buys in the 2024 NFL season. So you know what that means. More games to research, more games to bet on. Tom Broly and I will take you through the week 15 NFL slate talking best bets, liens, bad beats, everything that we like to discuss. And then good friend Trey will be along with some touchdown score props that you're probably going to want to fade. This is the best bet show at Fantasy Points. All right, T-Brow.

It was another week of Dolan going one and two and losing just some utter heartbreakers. I had Josh Jacobs over 69 and a half rushing yards on Thursday night. He scored three rushing touchdowns and didn't clear the prop, which is just staggeringly bad. His progress was impeded by the end zone three times. You feel like he could have gotten a couple extra yards on all of those runs. And then the Dolan teaser of the week, yeah, the bill's lost by two instead of one. And that doomed that for me, T, bro. So, well, I'm still below 500, but fortunately, as I like to say on this show, we're not wise.

We're just guys. We just love betting on football and yelling about it when things don't go our way. What's going on, T, bro? How'd you do last week? Pretty good week overall. Winning on my player props, a slight winner there. We got a nice Tyler Conklin one that he got on the final play of regulation. It was a plus 122 for over his receptions.

And then ATS-wise, two-and-one on the best bets. And a good week for the ever game, picking every game against the spread. So, yeah, good week overall. Looking to keep it going this week. Got a little action already out there for the subscribers. And we'll give them out here on the podcast as well. So got the full slate, as he said, Joe. I got four ATS picks and some player props.

All right, T, bro. We like to kick it off with a Thursday night football special, and I got to be honest, this is a heck of a one here on Thursday night. It's two teams who are basically battling to stay alive. It's the Rams and the 49ers. We have the Rams in San Francisco, catching three on the highway,

49 and a half the total. I have a prop I really like in this game, but I want to know if you have anything on the spread or total that you're interested in. I kind of lean towards the 49ers side. I haven't given out, you know, we'll do my official staff picks tomorrow. Kind of want to see how everything shakes out here. Of course, one of the big injuries is the running back position, at least for fantasy.

Yeah. We'll see if Isaac Grendo is able to play tomorrow. Seems probably more on the doubtful side, but we'll see how he progresses tomorrow. And this Rams team, I went against them last week as well, Joe. and they were putting on a show against the Buffalo Bills, and they couldn't slow them down at all. Pooka Nukua, making ridiculous catches left and right. Duke, nuke him as our buddy.

So we'll see if that works on the highway here. As you said, both of these teams are looking to survive here. We're getting down to it. The NFC West is still up for grabs. Seahawks have a very difficult finishing stretch to the season. So whoever wins this game is going to be the team that's right behind the Seattle Seahawks able to put pressure on them. But the team that loses is kind of done for here. Not officially, but so this is a pretty pivotal game.

I do think the 49ers, it seemed like there was talk about a team meeting before last week's game against the Chicago Bears. And they absolutely destroyed them in that first half, held them to like two inches of play. in the first half. And so I'm leaning towards the 49ers. Get to stay at home here. Rams have to, not that it's a major trip for these guys, but I prefer the 49ers here,

laying two and a half three, it looks like across the board. Tom, I have a prop on this game, and I thought this number was staggeringly low for the kind of player he is. You know, you can look at the matchup numbers and the schedule adjusted numbers and all that,

as when you look at at the tight end position. Oh. But it's like it doesn't matter nearly as much at that position as it does for like outside receivers and slot receivers and running backs and all that. In his last let's see here, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight games. George Kittle, 64 receiving yards, 58 receiving yards, 92 receiving yards, 128 receiving yards, 57 receiving yards, 82 receiving yards, 7 receiving yards, 151 receiving yards. The outlier there was the 7. That came in a driving snowstorm with Brock Purdy coming off of a shoulder injury, Tom.

George Kittle's prop sat at 56.5. The only time in the last eight games that he did not go over this number was in a driving snowstorm. I thought the number was way too low. Give me George Kittle over 56.5 receiving yards against the ramp. on Thursday night. Oh, we're making this a super best back right off the bat. Yes, I like this number as well. I think there's even a 55 and a half out in the market. We'll see if it's, I don't know if it's going to stick around much. As of Wednesday night at Ben MGM, there is a 55 and a half, but most of the other books have it 56 and a half, 58 and a half. So I love this prop. I'm with you, Joe. I'll add a little more context to that without Christian Caffrey in the lineup here. He's sitting close to a 23% target share. When McCaffrey was in the lineup, it was closer to 15%.

First read share goes from 17.6% up to 26.1% without McCaffrey. So those numbers are, you know, look much better. And we talked about earlier, Patrick Taylor, maybe he's not available. You know, he might be the lead back. Isaac Orendo, the much more talented back might not be available. So I think the 49ers maybe push to throw a little bit more. Playing against the, the Rams. kind of forces teams. We saw it last week with the bills. It kind of forces these teams to throw a little bit more.

So I think the game script could be a little bit more pass heavy here. And then some of the schematic stuff. Rams play a lot of cover three, sixth most. And he's averaging 3.88 yards per route run and a 24% target share against cover three. And that's from our fantasy points data. So everything is kind of lining up here. It's screaming George Kittle. Even the Rams, they give up the 13.

the most receiving yards per game to the position. So it's all lining up here. George Kittle for another big game. I know there's a little bit of a Debo Samuel narrative out there. He was whining a little bit on his social media, quickly deleted it. So there's some thought maybe they'll try to get him going. But he just hasn't been able to get going all season long here.

So I think it's going to continue to be the George Kittle and Juan Jennings show. So give me the George Kittle over as well, Joe. Tom, I, sometimes I'd like to get into the heads of the bookmakers, and I'm just not entirely sure exactly what kind of number they're hanging here. Is there like a Thursday night thing they're hanging here? Because in many ways, this number just does not make sense to me. Maybe it does have to do with the, with the, with the narrative. The narrative. Samuel narrative, yeah. Well, yeah, that, I mean, honestly, I look at all the props and I was I was consider you know, I don't want to take under on a receiver on the same team and over, you know, it's almost feels like you're double

betting it. But Debo Samuel's prop is 48 and a half, 49 and a half. He's still getting a lot of respect in the player prop markets. This guy, I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but I mean, he can't even get over 25 receiving yards in quite a few of his last, his last couple of games. So that number seemed a little bit high to me. I think he should be down closer to 40, 44, you know, 45 and a half in that range, which would obviously bump up a George Kittle and Juan Jennings up into the low 60s where I think he should be and Juan Jennings should be closer to 70. So I think just looking at the way they're splitting up the targets here, the sports books are. They're still thinking Debo Samuel's a pivotal piece of this passing game right now.

That's going to be an interesting narrative street, Tom. If you don't have any else on this game. Did you, did you, did you dabble in anything else on Thursday night football? Not not yet. I had trouble finding anything, but I love that kiddle one, so you know what's going to happen to me. We're going to take a quick break. And then Tom, I know you have a bet on the next game that I want to talk about because I want to talk about big time narrative street bet. And then on the Sunday slate, we'll, we'll hit that right after we pay some bills. Okay, T, bro, you might have heard something, uh, about this, uh, this, this, AJ Brown Jalen Hurts.

Is it even a feud? I don't even know what it is. To me, it feels semi-concocted. I think what's happening is the Eagles are not passing the ball a lot, and sometimes they're not passing it well when they're not passing it a lot, and that's going to result in frustrations

for somebody like A.J. Brown. And here is where I differentiate A.J. Brown from Debo Samuel. I actually think E.J. Brown's playing good football this year. I don't think D.bo Samuel is playing good football. But in case you guys haven't heard or you live under a rock, AJ Brown said he was frustrated with the passing game after the Eagles last game. There's multiple clips going around on social media of AJ Brown being open for a big game

on the first play of the game against the Panthers last week. And everybody knows the Eagles were flat in that game against Carolina. They held on for a victory by the skin of their teeth, but they were flat. So now there's like this, oh, is Jalen Hertz and AJ Brown beefing? They're notoriously good friends. And Jalen Hertz is the godfather of AJ Brown's daughter. So like this is where they're at. But they come out on Thursday.

I think Brandon Graham made a comment on sports radio. He was like, you guys were friends before this. And what people read that as is they're no longer friends. Well, Brandon Graham comes out and says, well, what I meant was that they were friends before they were teammates and they're going to be friends after their teammates. So he comes out and clarifies that. Jalen Hertz and A.J. Brown are clear in the air. All on the Thursday press conference, Nick Siriani, clear in the air. I don't know what this means.

I don't know. It feels to me like it was a semi-overreaction. I don't say a full-on overreaction, but a semi-overreaction to an Eagles in a flat spot where they're coming off an emotional win against the Baltimore Ravens. That being said, we know the Eagles have not thrown the ball a lot this year. They've thrown it well at times, but never at high volume. All that being said, A.J. Brown's prop against the Pittsburgh Steelers, 75 and a half. I said, I didn't know if they could set this number high enough for me to not bet the over on this. If it got to the 80s, that might be where I'm like, I don't know about that.

But 75 and a half, it wasn't high enough, Tom. I would be shocked if AJ Brown isn't targeted on one of the Eagles' first two plays. And throughout this game against Pittsburgh, the Eagles want to get that passing game back on track. I know you want to talk about this game as well, but I am going to take the squarest of square bets and bet A.J. Brown over the 75 and a half receiving yards against Pittsburgh. Yeah, I remember this situation popping up early last year, too. I think they were playing Tampa Bay on a Monday night game.

It was like the second or third week of the season. He had a really quiet game. Yeah, Hertz wasn't good in that game, yeah. Yeah, and I remember there was a little bit of a squeaky wheel narrative that week going into that Tampa Bay. game and he ended up getting like 100, 100 plus yards and seven or eight catches. And so it has worked for him in the past here. I do got to say, though, the matchup is a little tougher than that Tampa Bay one.

We do expect we're predicting a Joey Porter Jr. Covered Shadow for him up on the website there. We have a wide receiver CB matchup that Stephen O'Rourke updates weekly. And he's been pretty good with that all year. But, you know, looking at the matchup, you know, Joey Porter Jr. hasn't been that great recently. He drew a lot of penalties on T. Higgins a couple of weeks ago. I don't know if anybody's been watching the Hard Knocks edition of the AFC North. And Mike Tomlin is coaching him up in one of the scenes in this week's last episode. So he's a younger player that's struggling a little bit. And this is about as tough as a matchup as he's going to get against A.J. Brown.

So I'm with you, Joe. I would be looking at that. It would probably just come down to how much passing volume. Is there going to be in this Eagles offense? And I actually, I am on the, the Steelers side of this. I got them at plus five. But that was earlier in the week when, you know, all the stuff about pickings had really.

So it has started to creep up a little bit. There is some five and a halves out there. So if anybody wants to get on that, I'd probably wait it out here. see if some sixes start to pop. I don't know if they will. It feels like there'll be some market resistance if they do come up. You know, those plus sixes do come up. But I just think this line should be closer to, you know,

not a field goal, but about three and a half, four points. I feel like we're getting a little bit of value here. But it's fair to wonder how this Steelers offense is going to move the ball against the Eagles without George Pickens in the passing game. But, you know, they did it at times last week when they were, they actually had to. James Winston put them in a lot of good positions last week for scoring touchdowns. But they actually have a full week to prepare for this one.

They're heavily rotating the receivers at least last week. So we'll see how they plan to attack the Eagles. But I do think this line is a little too big. I think it should be closer to three or four points. Yeah, Tomlin as an underdog, I think is always a spot. And then that's why I think I agree with you. If it gets to six, it'll be a bit of serendipity. for you if you get the number at six because it'll probably come down from six right away.

But it's a really interesting spot though, Tom, because you have, you have Tomlin as an underdog, which is always a bet on spot. And then you have the Eagles off this flat spot. And you know the Eagles have the talent to turn it on, you know, and just be like, all right, let's, let's shut these people up. Let's go, let's let Jalen throw for 250, even if he doesn't have to. and AJ goes for 120. It's kind of a weird spot. So interesting that you're betting on that. And, you know, the thing about the Philadelphia Eagles with that game against Pittsburgh is I actually think Pittsburgh's game without Pittsburgh's offense without George Pickens.

I'm not sure the receiving group is as good as Carolina's last week. You know, Adam feeling. I don't think so. I actually have an Adam feeling prop. But yeah, I mean, there's nobody that stands out. Pat Friarmouth. I'll be interested to see where his props start here. I could see him being the top receiver for the Steelers this week. Thielen had a cream on cream crime.

I think Cooper DeGine had his first welcome to the NFL moment last week. You know, a savvy veteran knowing how to get open on him. I don't know if the Steelers have that guy. So it's going to be an interesting game to follow. No doubt about that. Arguably the game of the week, if the Bills and the Lions, didn't exist. I don't know if you have a bet on that game, Tom. I do not, but we'll get to that because I want to get to my next prop. And this is just a simple one. It's a matter of availability.

It's a matter of projected game script. The Carolina Panthers are favored for the first time in two years against the Dallas Cowboys. Go. Jonathan Brooks is on IR. Raheem Blackshear had to get taken, I believe, to the hospital with a potential rib injury last week. Panthers really don't have anybody else in the backfield. That's all the rationale I need. Panthers expect to play from ahead. I thought Bryce Young, a guy who's been as impressive as he's been the last month, that game against the Eagles

was the most impressed I've been with Bryce Young in his entire NFL career. The guy looks like, like a potential franchise quarterback. And, you know, four weeks ago, we're like, maybe he can be a low-end starter. And that all of a... We were talking about him getting traded a couple,

you know, two months ago. It's going to get traded before the deadline. And he looks like he's just got all that Alabama swaggerback. But that that's not that's not the rationale here because I'm betting Chuba Hubbard over 79 and a half rushing yards against Dallas. I think the Panthers is projected favorites. Chuba ran for over 90 yards. It was hard coming against the Eagles. He averaged three and a half yards per carry. But he ran for over 90 against the Eagles. I think Carolina pulls out the victory. I think Bryce Young does get rewarded for that good play. I know he's getting frustrated

and not putting a W in the column. But I think he does. And I think he does it on the back of Chuba Hubbard. Give me the over 79 and a half for Chuba. I like that. I was actually looking at his over his rushing attempts. I think it was 18 and a half just because of the backup situation behind him right now. They were talking about Vela. Vela Jones, the old Chicago Bears guy, potentially being the backup running back there. At least they picked him up here. So they're really struggling at the running back position. I also liked his receiving yards prop. It was at like 11 and a half yards on my first

clants but i ended up i am on the panthers this week that was one of my monday a t s picks uh got them at one they are now up to like two and a half is the the last i saw there's actually some momentum here i'm actually a little bit scared about this the the the panthers uh you know the the worst franchise in the nfl the last couple of years and uh now they're you know pretty big favorites here uh considering they're usually massive underdogs but i did take adam feeling uh over 50 15 and a half receiving yards. As you said, Joe, I think he's playing at a really high level. This number just, I thought this would be closer to the like the high 50s.

He's been at 57 yards in each of his first three games back from the hamstring injury. And a lot of the numbers just digging into him from the fantasy points data suite. You know, he's, he's, you know, averaging two, two yards per route run, 24% targets per route run rate. So a lot of the numbers look really good. And I'm like, give me them. I want to keep betting at them feeling right now. Dallas allows the ninth most yards per route run to receivers in the slot.

So we haven't projected for about 68 receiving yards. So I'll tell you on this game, we got a lot of Carolina Panthers action. What could go wrong? But we're back in the Panthers this. week. Tom, my team in our fantasy points one quarterback dynasty league, I've been expecting it to fall off the cliff like for two years and I can't lose. I'm in first year and second. Do you do realize in that league? And the reason I'm talking about this is because I have Adam feeling in that league. And that's somebody who like I would have traded for like a fifth round pick two seasons ago.

I couldn't give the guy away. And now he's carrying me, you know, as a nice wide receiver two, three type of guy. Did you realize we have a meaningless week in that league? I kind of did because it feels like our matchup last week was kind of meaningless. Yeah, yeah. Our teams have clinched a playoff spot. So we have a now you and I can battle it out for the first seed. And John Hanson's going to be the four seed and his team's way behind in points. So it is actually important for me to beat Paul Kelly this week.

But nonetheless, T, bro, Adam Thiel, and a part of that team that I thought was dead two years ago. I'm in first place. So who knows with these things with the Carolina Panthers. Do you have anything else on the Sunday slate before I get to Dolan's crappy teaser of the week? Let's see here. I got a couple more player props. Let's go. I gave out an under.

Those have been pretty good on the show, I think, the few times I've given out under. So I have an Alvin Kamara under 77.5 rushing yards. This is a little scary because the matchup is really good against the commander. but I am fading this offense and I'm fading his role right now because I think Kendry Miller is coming on strong here. Got 10 carries in last week's game. Alvin Carmar's carry share was down to 51.5%. He's been sitting closer to 60, 61% through the first 13 weeks of the season.

So I'm just thinking that's going to take a couple carries off of his plate here this week. And I worry about this offense in general. I know the Rizmaster, Darren Rizzy, is saying that Derek Carter, you know, could play this week. But he suffered a concussion, broke his hand. I think, yeah, and they're kind of still in contention, kind of not. You know, they're two games back of the Buccaneers. So I could see some urgency to play. But I don't think he's going to play.

And I think it's going to be Spencer Rattler and Jake Hainer at quarterback. So, and if we look at the games, we're running. Rattler started earlier this season. He totaled 30 carries for 117 yards in all three of those games combined. And that's Alvin Kamara with no games more than 67 yards. So I don't know how long this is going to last at 77.5. I would bet this down into the high 60s. I think this is a pretty high, ridiculous number for Alvin Kamara.

He's actually been under 77 or fewer yards in eight of his last 10 games anyway. playing in perfect situations with no Kendry Miller really behind him. He was behind him a game or two. Yeah, so, I mean, that also, Taysom Hill was taking some carries away. So, but, you know, Kendry Miller, I think is going to have a role here down the stretch. So that was one player prop that really stood out. Oh, I'll throw another ETS pick out here as well. Just added it today.

Seattle Seahawks, the team that I backed a couple of times here since their week 10 by, I didn't back them last week. I'm regretting it, but I backed them in a week 11 and week 12. I think this defense has really started to turn a corner. They're getting plus three at home on Sunday night against the Packers. Packers are obviously one of the best teams in the NFC, but I think this game should be closer to a pick-em type of a spread. Seattle's offensive line was fantastic last week.

Kenneth Walker had to be on the sidelines being like, you know, where was this blocking all year for me? Zach Sarbanay was running wild. So I'm back in the Seahawks here. They've won four straight. They've, you know, I've given them out twice, the 2-0 here. So going back to the well here, I don't think the markets have caught up with them. I think this game should be closer to pick them.

So give me the Seahawks catching a full field goal if you can. All right, Tom. Let's get to the teaser. I don't even know if I need to explain the first leg. The Kansas City Chiefs are 0 and 7 against the spread. in their last seven games. And they won all of them. They're given four of the Cleveland Browns.

I understand James is a teaser ruiner with his. But I feel like James can be a teaser ruiner on both sides, right? Like, you know, he throws a bomb touchdown at the end. I'm just betting against the Chiefs here. I have the Browns getting 10 in the teaser. And then there was one where last week I was wrong. I said, I just want to find a team where I can't foresee them losing and to get that end of the teaser. Obviously, Buffalo could not stop the Rams whatsoever.

I was wrong on that one. I will be floored. Floored. Tom Raleigh. Yeah. If the Tennessee Titans beat the Cincinnati Bengals. The Titans are catching five from the Bengals. So I am teasing the Bengals up to plus one.

I know Joe Burrow, there was something with practice. He was limited. He did his press conference. He's fine. I am teasing the six point teaser, two team teaser. I have the Bengals getting one from the Titans and the Browns getting 10 from the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have been part of every teaser I've made. And I've been on the right side except the first one when I was wrong on them. So I went against them every other time. I'm going against him again. Give me the Browns and give me the Bengals on a six point two team teaser. All right, James. No pick six is here for Joe. We know what's going to be the way Kansas City wins their first, you know, first game by, you know, more than one possession here. It's going to be a James, like, pick six with like 30 seconds left or something. I hope not to, but, you know, that is how I am envisioning this coming to an end, this little streak that they're on. But yeah, the Bengals one, I think Burrough will play. But he was a little banged up in that Monday night game.

They put a little sleeve on his knee. You know, I do think he'll continue to play here. They're still hanging on to slim playoff hopes right now. I think they're like 3 or 4% to make the AFC playoff. So I do think he wants to play. And this is a game that they should be able. If they get the like 21 points, I think even their defense can slow down this Tennessee Titans offense.

So no real issues with the Bengals leg of this one. So let's go. Let's keep fading those Kansas City Chiefs here, Joe. All right, Tom, let's take a step away and then you and I will kind of take a step back. And we'll seed the floor to good friend Trey, who is cooking up a hash of whatever it is. He's cooking up in the betting lab. We'll be right back. Snap up Ancestry DNA's lowest price ever in our incredible cyber sale with 50% off

ancestry DNA kits. It's the perfect time to help a loved one unwrap the past. And with their latest update, they'll discover their family origins like never before. even more precise regions and new and exclusive features their best gift our lowest price 50% off ancestry dna only until december 2nd visit ancestry.ca for more details terms apply let's welcome in good friend trey trey camberling who's wearing his iowa state cyclone sweatshirt i love the man that he reps in good times and in bad uh it isn't the the the prettiest of times for those clones uh our uh our our money line parlay on Iowa State and Penn State was DOA.

I guess our Knits put up a fight, Tom, pretty good fight. Yeah, at least they did, but losers on both ends. Lusers on both, yeah, unfortunately. Thems are the brakes. Trey Camberling, what's up, my friend? How are you wearing that at that clones loss? Are you interested in the Pop-Tarts Bowl? Yeah.

No, I got no interest in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, you know, but it's okay. We got Matt Campbell on an extension, eight-year extension today. So the big concern was that the rumors are Ohio State. That's his dream job. And there's at least a little bit up in the air right now. So locking in that extension, I think, sharp move by Jamie Pollard in the program. And if Matt Campbell's there, we got a chance to keep things going. If he's gone, it's back to the seller.

But I'm happy we got the extension done. Yeah, that's a good deal. Unfortunately, I don't know if you're a booster. If you are, you need to start hitting some bets in order to help pay that Matt Campbell contract, maybe fund some of that Ames, Iowa NIL collective. So, Trey, I mean, how are we going to fill the wallet this weekend, man? Well, I got a little play here. It's something I've done before on this podcast.

I haven't had any success with it this season, but have in the past. I'm going to go with five first touchdown scores on Thursday night. So how I do this, I take my unit, I split it up, point two units and put it on each leg, do a couple crazy guys, a couple guys that make some sense. And they just try to get a little bit of profit or a big amount of profit. The range of outcomes is, you know, pretty solid with this one. So let me throw some names at you here. Name number one, I'm going to go by largest amount of profit to smallest amount of profit.

We're going to go with Kyle Usecheck. Okay, that's going to be number one. And, you know, again, far-fetched would be a nice 9.2 units in profit. Running back issues, okay, in San Francisco. Obviously, people like Patrick Taylor to score a touchdown this week, I can see that. But just with the uncertainty at running back, I'd like to take a little full back action, you know, this week. And I also have another 49ers running back, but it's not Patrick Taylor. My guy, okay, is he a bandicanda?

Ooh. I've been on this guy for a long time now. And if you look back to his days in college, okay, this is a touchdown scoring machine from, you know, your guys is neck of the woods, pit, you know, I know, I know you're not Pitt fans. Yeah, we don't associate with them. So, lots of touchdowns in his days. This guy's got a nose for the. end zone scored quite a few times in the preseason when he was with the jets so that's going to be it's a little bit smaller of 2.8 units of profit so that's that's where i'm at on the 49ers backfield

i'd like to hear your thoughts no issues there i mean use check we've seen that in the past here they get on right on top of the goal line if they don't trust one of these new running backs that they have i can see them doing a little uh full back dive right in right on top of the goal line so uh yeah bonaconda yeah i mean he's going to be in the mix here. Who knows? Everybody's kind of just designating all the work to Patrick Taylor, but I'd like taking a longer shot on one of these backup running backs. Beautiful opportunity to do that. I have another running back on the opposite side, and of course it's not Kyron Williams. We're going to go to for our second best profit opportunity,

Blake Corum, okay? The opportunity here, this would win you 6.4 units in profit. profit, just a tough, you know, running back, physical. And I know he got some goal line snaps last week and it looks like he's mixing in a little bit more. He's not playing a ton, okay? It's thin. I mean, this isn't a split backfield by any stretch of the imagination, but it's a rookie that's, you know, coming into his own maybe and maybe he's a little bit more comfortable

towards the end of the season. So we're going to take Blake Corum to punch it into the end zone. Yeah, they've been giving, you know, a little bit more work here recently. because of Kairn's fumbling issues. He had four fumbles in a four-game stretch there. Now, Corr has been basically getting a series or two every game. So maybe if there's a little bit of a stalemate early in the game and scoring's a little not happening on the first drive or two.

Maybe Coram gets in, gets his series, takes them down the field and gets that opportunity. Thursday is a great night for the score for the score. The lower score. So, you know, that's why we like to do it. The next two, nothing crazy. Okay, you got to have some safety nets here in this place. So George Kittle, that'd be 1.1 units of profit. And then Pooka Nakua, just a tidy.9 units of profit there with those two.

Love George Kittle this week. I was looking at potentially taking some alt-receiving yardage numbers for him. I know you guys are high on him as well. And then Puka, I mean, who could stop this guy? I mean, this guy is looking like borderline top five wide receivers. in the NFL right now. I mean, this is the real deal here, Pooka Nakuwa. So if I had to guess who is going to score the first

touchdown based on this, I'm going to say definitely Kyron Williams or Patrick Taylor. Yeah, pretty much a guarantee. Kyron Williams or Patrick Taylor, but those are my plays. I like the last too. Of course, we love George Kittle. Go bet those all all receiving yards too. We'd like him to go. He's going to go over this, hopefully over our receiving yards total in the first half

here and go climb that ladder with. with Georgie Kettle. Yeah, a Kittle ladder might be interesting, Trey, with just all the analysis that we have. The run game might not be effective. I don't know how good Debo is. You know, we had Brett Whitefield on the serious XM morning show today, and he was kind of talking about how Devo just doesn't look like

he's in the shape that he's typically in. So in a must-win game for the 49ers, I expect they're going to go to their best player. Yeah, I mean, you saw the shootout last week. I mean, it could be high-scoring, high-flying action. So and you usually don't have to twist my arm to get me to bed a ladder. So I'll probably get to the window with that. I do have a little bit of some bonus action.

I added slop here for us. I know this is an NFL podcast, but I just wanted to put this out there in the universe because I feel very strongly about this. And I'd like to dedicate this. I'll keep it very brief to a friend of mine. His name's Mitch Wilson, a big Notre Dame fan. Oh, no. You know, they really, you know, have been kind of a little bit down on their luck program in these big games. And they've got a chance here at home to make something big happen for that program.

And it ain't going to have. Indiana right now, fan duel. That's going to be plus seven and a half. That is the mortal lock of the entire history of any sports ever. Okay. This is an underrated, disrespected Indiana team. going in against the most fraudulent powerhouse program of my lifetime. Okay.

If you're 30 years old like I am, Notre Dame has lost every single big game they've ever played. And that's not hyperbole. Literally, go look. Every single game since 94 they've lost. That's the year I was born. They've been tested. They played Army and Navy.

They're ready to go for this big game, you know. And they only... Nothing against Army and Navy. We love the troops. year. Yeah, they got one loss. You know, who could that have been to? You know, okay, this, this is, these guys are, I like to call them Nebraska with better PR because every year they're, they're not that bad. No, they are. They really are that bad. As a program, they just don't play anybody. I mean, if they played in the Big Ten, they would be exactly Nebraska, in my personal opinion. They're horrible. They lose big games like it's their job. And the slop version, Indiana on the money line, they're going to win this game outright. And, I'm going to say it because I'm going to bet this and I believe it. I'm going to alt spread Indiana to minus six and a half. That's going to be plus 430.

Indiana by at least a touchdown, you heard it here first. All right. Well, I will tell you, my name's Dolan, okay? I grew up a Notre Dame fan. All right. You know, Irish Catholic. I have since seated that fandom when I went to Penn State. And, you know, Notre Dame and Penn State are kind of old rivals from when they were both independent.

they're not. I mean, the last time they played was my senior year in college, T-Bro. Jimmy Cawson came to town and the Knits debacleding. I enjoyed that one. Derek Williams returned a punt for a touchdown in that game. So that was the last time they came to town. Charlie Weiss was the head coach. But I can probably pinpoint to you the last time Notre Dame won a big game. The same day, I got a concussion. I was, now, I don't think I was confirmed a concussion, but I was at my uncle's house in Pittsburgh. My uncle lived across the house,

across the street from Franco Harris in Pittsburgh. And Tom, you would think those old brownstones, like those row homes, like those beautiful old, I mean, this thing was, you know, from the outside, it's thin, but it's probably like 4,000 square feet inside, just rooms for days. And he had a really narrow stairwell to his attic. And I was seven years old.

This will tell you how far long ago. that was. And I remember waking up, he was a doctor, so he had taken care of me. I remember waking up and I had been out of it. And I remember looking at the TV and seeing that my beloved Irish, when I was, I was seven years old, had beaten Charlie Ward and number one Florida State. And then the very next week, Notre Dame lost to Boston College and Tom Coughlin on a walk-off field goal, blew their last great, Well, I guess they went to the national championship game against Alabama in the Manta Tayao years. Talking about debacle. Yeah, but that Notre Dame team in 93 far better than any Notre Dame team that's been recently good.

So that was probably the last truly big game, Notre Dame has won. If you're listening at this point in the podcast and you are not brushed up on Notre Dame's recent history, I really want you to do this. Right now, click off the podcast. We don't even care. Go on to Wikipedia right now and click on every. New Year 6 bowl game that Notre Dame has played in and championships since the mid-90s. You will not believe how many big games they lost.

And games that weren't even particularly close. It is borderline unbelievable that a team could fail that much. A team with so much prestige and so much respect could fail that many times since the mid-90s. Any chance they're immune from it because it's not near New Year's and it's at home. And any chance of that? No, no chance. This is the perfect setup for Notre Dame to just get destroyed by Indiana. Because I think they're totally fraudulent, and I think Indiana is a little bit

disrespectful and underrated. So, yeah, I'm going with Indiana. Like I said, the plus seven and a half, easiest money you'll ever make. So would you consider the major bowl games like the current, the New Year 6 and the national championship? I just wanted to go and confirm that because I thought this was true. But the last time Notre Dame won either the peach, any of the peach. The cotton, the fiesta, the rose, the orange, and the sugar was January 1st, 1994, when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl.

There you go. That was 30 years. That was four months before I was born. In your lifetime. In your life. In your lifetime. Oh, you're a post-co-Bainer. Yeah, I guess technically.

Yeah, you were born after Kirkcrow. You and Graham Barfield both, man. I got to get out of here. I'm aging too fast. I got to go shower or something. Maybe I'll rub down my feet or something. Yeah, I was going to say you've got to do your anti-aging cream job. Yeah, you know, your footpaths.

Making me upset because I still remember Notre Dame great, Tom Hammond, the great voice of Notre Dame football on NBC when I grew up. I still have very fond memories. It connects to my dad and all stuff like that. but my fandom is in the past very much so. That's good friend, Trey, the world's biggest hater. The only thing he hates more than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is Scataboo. That's the only thing he hates more of Notre Dame Fighting Irish right now.

That's Tom Brawley, a happy man who needs to save his voice here because he's coming down with a little something. So I'll sign us off. This has been the best best podcast, Week 15, NFL season at Fantasy Points. Remember, we're not wise. We're just guys.