Fantasy Football Daily - How to Rebuild Your Struggling Dynasty Fantasy Football Teams In 2024

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

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I'm Thomas Tipple. That's Jacob Sanderson. We are half of the host of Dynasty Points. And on this week's episode, we talk about why it is problematic to tear your dynasty rosters down to the studs and give you the right and wrong way to approach rebuilding when your league mates have given you a head start. It's almost trade deadline time. And if you are thinking that it's time to catch the exit on the Dynasty Freeway for the the 2024 season. We have you covered. We're going to talk theoretically, when to rebuild, and we're going to talk practically who to target and how,

all on this week's episode of Dynasty Points. Oh, it's Tuesday night. I can't wait. It's Dynasty Points. We're back again. What a fun time of year. This is a time of year when we have some real stuff to talk about.

It has been a lot of ranks and tears and clicky stuff and just stuff that gets people arguing and upset and now you guys don't know ball, et cetera. It's theory time. This is when the real ball knowers show up because if you don't know how to manage rebuilders and what to do, like,

if you can't identify that going all in as a farce, all this stuff is going to change your trajectory in the dynasty fantasy landscape. Guess what? That time is here. It's right now. Of course, if you're listening to, listening to this on the Fantasy Points Now podcast network.

You're going to want to go and find the Dynasty Points podcast network. You get Dynasty Points Market report a couple days early on that. And the Fantasy Points Now feed is dissolving at the end of the year. So this is where you're going to want to be locked in. If you're watching on YouTube, obviously hit like, subscribe, leave a comment that helps us. If you're watching on X or anywhere else, head over to YouTube. hit the subscribe button so you never miss it. If you don't know, I am your host.

I'm Thomas Tipple. You find me at El Noster Thomas Everywhere. That's Jacob Sanderson. You find him at Jacob Sanderson because his hashtag isn't unique. Lucas Gilbert is at L. Gilbert F because he is unique. And you get Ryan Heath at Ryan J at Ryan J. At least there's an underscore Heath. Let's dive in.

But before we do, we see your questions today answering questions. Last week, we didn't have time today. I already see a Rebuilder question. that's what I love about it. We're going to dive into it. But first, Jacob, you had a hard time containing yourself because you just got back from a trip across Canada. Let's dive into it because you were pretty heated.

Well, look, I was at the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, Western Final last weekend. Flying back to Vancouver, I'll be at the Great Cup live and in stereo this week. That's for the NFL for people. That is for the Canadian Football League, the premier football league of our time. And on the way back, come on Toronto, Dave, on the way back, I had a situation. First of all, I'm supposed to fly at like 2 p.m. out of Winnipeg. That gets delayed, a bunch of cancellations, whatever. Things happen.

I end up flying Winnipeg to Calgary, Calgary to Vancouver. I get to Calgary out about 1115. We end up boarding the flight from Calgary to Vancouver at about 1145. And then once we're on the flight, all of a sudden there's a baby that starts crying. And so, okay, that's my annoying baby, whatever. Turn up the headphones. Anoint baby, we can deal with annoying baby. That's okay.

Then on top of annoying baby, I start to hear, oh, disarm the doors for annoying baby. And all of a sudden I start to see parents an annoying baby moving towards the front of the aircraft. Eventually, I recognize what's happening is annoying baby. and parents demand the aircraft, not fly, so that annoying baby can leave. And I go, well, this is going to be inconvenient. We're waiting through that scenario. And all of a sudden now, beside me is vomiting adult. Oh, God. And vomiting adult is having her own issues, namely, vomiting. So she goes back to the bathroom. She's having a time. She's, you know, walking around, zomified. And now she's having conversations with the flight attendants.

And all of a sudden, I start to see the result of these conversations, which is that she is going to be getting off the plane. And so on two occasions, we have to onboard guests who were already boarded to get their bags off from the caron. We have to go underneath the plane to sift through all the suitcases, to find their suitcases to bring them back off. We have to bring the bridge back. We do that.

And then they say, I guess because of woke, they don't have enough fuel to get the plane to Vancouver anymore because we've just been burning through fuel on the tarmac tending to the sick and to the screaming. So now we need to drive back to get more fuel. And then we need to de-ice the wings. All in all, it takes two and a half hours, starting from 1145 to get this thing in the air.

So if you are a person who gets on a flight, be it a three-year-old or a 33-year-old, and you don't think that you're going to be able to handle the flight, don't get on the flight. And if you do, I think, from a Vulcan perspective for the needs of the many, we simply strap that person in their seat and we say, sorry, flights leaving. That's easy call.

That is a nightmare scenario for me. I'm so happy you managed to get through it and you made it to this year program because it sounds like it might have been hit or miss there for a minute. We almost lost you. Armin says that's a nightmare scenario. Like that's, that is, that is,

as soon as you got the throwing up, because I'm the type of person, if I see it or hear it, I'm doing it. And like when you get a chain reaction like that, it's, it's not good. On my way back from Cleveland,

now keep in mind, from Winnipeg to Cleveland, because I went to the Fantasy Football Expo. Okay, the flight from Winnipeg to Toronto was about two hours and 20 minutes. And the flight from Toronto to Cleveland is roughly 3540.

It took me 18 hours. to get home because of delays and changing planes and a pilot was sick. Like it I thought that was bad. I think I would take that over being on the plane for two and a half hours watching all of this unfold if I'm being honest. One day, one day we'll just have an entire podcast focused on plane etiquette. Yeah, there are people that I was saying this. I'm not kidding.

Someone took their shoes off on the plane and the smell that ran through the cabin. I almost. I wanted to find them and throw hands. Like I wanted to throw. Like we've all been sitting around waiting to board this plane for hours. Who knows how long we've been out here traveling? I'm going to, it's the summer. Like it's August.

Oh, I was going to throw hands, man. Like there are just some people that shouldn't be allowed to travel because they have no etiquette. We should do an entire podcast on that. We just got before our show reclining. Yes. Just by a quick show of hands. who here reclines their seat on an airplane? Be honest.

No shot. So on a red eye, when everyone else is reclining, because it's two in the morning, and it's the dead of night, and everyone's trying to sleep, I will recline. But never other than that. But someone is in the last row of the plane,

and that person has a wall, and they can't recline. I thought we, I'm sorry. I thought we were just talking about airplane travel from a Vulcan perspective, Jacob. Are we really going to prioritize their needs over the needs of the hundreds of other people on the plane. No one needs to recline.

The only reason why any person is the back or a reason. No, this is the faulty thinking of the recline. The only reason why anyone ever needs to recline is because the person in front of them reclines. You don't get any extra space if you recline and they recline. You're just getting back the space that was taken from you. But if nobody reclines, it's fine. Airplanes shouldn't even have the ability to recline. The recline, the only function of the airplane recline is so that we can weed out.

Who among us is not welcome in a polite society? Who among us are heathens and disgusting immoral creatures who share our world that must be weeded out? That is why we have reclines, not for your comfort, but for your confession. So do you just write off the whole concept of like sleeping on an airplane? everybody on a six-foot-five. On a six-hour cross-country fight, should everybody just hold the all-nighter. Like, no one should even try to sleep.

We're just all... Oh, you can sleep not reclined? You can't sleep set up like I am right now. Very few people can do that. A lot more people can sleep while they're reclined. The recline is like three inches. Yeah, you're barely reclining on it. I mean, maybe for somebody who's much smaller

than maybe, like, it feels like you're reclining a little bit more. By the way, we've mentioned height a few. times and as the shortest person here, I'm offended first off. Like, let's let's be real. You take whatever piece of clothing you have, a sweater, a hat, and you stuff it against the wall if you're at a window seat while you're sitting up and you uncomfortably crank your neck and slam your head against the window and you pretend like you're sleeping for three hours so you don't have to converse with the person beside you.

Let's be honest. That's how it goes. I had a flight to Europe. us. It was sometime last year. And I actually had three seats all to myself because I got, it was like a midnight flight out. And I still couldn't sleep on that. Like, even whenever I was like sprawled all across all three seats, it was so annoying that I couldn't even fall asleep on that. But you know, it is what it is. I know how bad it is for me, Jacob. I know it must just be like that a little bit much worse for you to sitting there. Like not even being able to like, actually fully sit down without like stabbing the person in front of you. Do you know, harness, right? I'm thinking about thinking blog post. When you're in the last row on a plane and the person reclines directly in front of you

and I'm writing the entire thing like this, not fun. All right. Well, I have been by statement. Fuck the needs of the many. Just think about my needs. Everybody should be offering. I knew that's what we were coming around to me. I knew that's what this was about.

Thank you for finally admitting it. It only took us 10 minutes of this conversation to get to get that out of you. So I'm glad you came around eventually. Yeah. Also, I just, no headphones. Like, if you choose not to bring headphones, you don't get to listen to anything. You've chosen to raw dog the flight at that point. I don't want to hear or have the possibility of hearing what you're watching or listening to.

Your music probably sucks, right? If it's a good jam, I'll kind of bob to it. That's cool. But like bring headphones, all right? You don't, you've chosen not to listen. One more flight story. I was on a flight, I think it was to Hawaii. And one of my coworkers that I was on the flight with actually pulled out like his mixing

board because apparently he DJs on the side. No. And he has his headphones on with his electronic mixing board. And the only thing I've seen the whole flight is him like bob in his head just like doing all this on there. No. With no sound, no other context, it was one of the best things I've ever seen on a flight. Just pure art without actually being able to see it.

I thought that was going to go a completely different direction. But I'm glad the headphones were plugged in. That would have been tragic. Let's talk about fantasy football now. I think I think our... I think. our true calling is going to be becoming a like, what are they called, like a true life podcast where we discuss everyday issues and lose all of our viewership immediately when we switch over.

But before we do that, we're going to take a break. We're going to come back. And I promise we're talking fantasy football. We're going to catch up on the chat and dive right into today's topics. I have a feeling we're making up for the one hour show last week. Oh, yeah. This one's going to be a serious bangers. Lucas regrets the decision is going up.

Sit tight. All right. Let's catch up on the chat because you guys are awesome. You guys are the reason we are here. Normally for this, we take questions in between like segments and when we get kind of like a break, but we're not going to be able to do that.

If you're wondering like, oh, this is a great podcast, I wish I could get in and ask some questions. How do you do it? You got to be at the live. If you come to the live, guess what? You can get your question. in. That's how it works. Pretty easy to figure out. We do go live every Tuesday night at

930 Eastern time if you're listening to this in podcast form and want in on the live show. We have some people saying like I have really bad back pain, I guess. Yeah, like I guess I understand. Joey says bare feet on the plane should be illegal. Oh, we're still talking about the flights. I was like, I was like, I'm catching up on the question portion of the podcast. And people are like, what would you recommend for my back pain? And I was like, I don't know, man. I'm just like I said, I want to catch up on the good, really good comments here. But obviously, let's go with how D. How D. Indeed. Let's start this rebuilding show off with a bang on a rebuilder. Should I sell A.J. Brown for Brian Thomas Jr. and change if I can. Let's get a vibe for the room.

Obviously, Brian Thomas Jr. has cooled off recently, granted his quarterback. is probably just choosing not to play at this point until his coach is fired. It kind of feels like anyway, but they do say he's hurt. What are we doing? Are we moving AJ Brown who still? A lot of Trevor, but he played through a lot of injuries. I don't know that Trevor's toughness is.

No, no, no, I don't think it's toughness. That is he's making a point. Like, I'm not playing for that guy anymore. Like,

why are we constantly letting a three yard route to Evan Ingram be the, the power of our ostracons? I support him. I would I would bet you could probably get a little bit of a plus on that, especially just based on Thomas has not done anything in a couple of weeks. He's been battling his own rib injury. And then with Mack Jones, I think the most likely scenario is Lawrence does not play the rest of this year.

So I don't think that Thomas is going to be top 24, maybe even top 36 wide receiver with Mac Jones. So I think you should be able to probably get a little bit extra on top from AJ Brown. but generally speaking, love the concept there. Anyone else? Yeah, I mean, fully agreed. It's kind of textbook what you want to do, just moving an asset within the same tier

into a different type of asset within the same tier, right? So a guy that helps you this year versus a guy that is going to maintain value is going to help you in future years. I guess, like, small aside on Brian Thomas Jr. is, yeah, with his rib injury, I would say very unlikely. he's productive, especially over the next couple of weeks. I have bugged Edwin Porras specifically about this injury. He thinks that like week 13, week 14 is when he might be a little more close to 100%.

So I don't know. I think in like a redraft context, if someone's down on him in your league, that that could be like a sneaky upside playoff by. But yeah, sorry, it's a dynasty show. And yeah, I fully agree with the trade that we're talking about. I hope this is a kind of a perfect scenario, I think, if we can get the Mack Jones bruised ribs shitty end of season for him. Because I mean, personally for me, I've seen enough.

So I have no issues, you know, valuing him where I valued him before these injuries to him and his quarterback. But I think he, I would really, really like a chance to buy him at a bit of a depressed value going into the off season. If his full season numbers start to look a lot worse than that. they were going to earlier. So I kind of actually like this a little bit better for the team that would be buying AJ Brown in this instance.

I would think that for like the Rebuilder in this setting, you would, like you'd really want to have to get that sort of plus on top of this, like on top of Brian Thomas Jr. To kind of make it or on top of Brian Thomas Jr. Sorry. To make it worth doing for you. I don't know necessarily like how moving. AJ Brown necessarily would like, you know, help your team out even more if you're already on the rebuilders. Like you want to make it worth your wild to move that. And I'm also the lowest

on Brian Thomas Jr., which kind of makes sense why I'd want a little bit more on top of him. I like what you're saying about him being a sneaky buy potentially for the rest of the season. But I really do like it if you're on like a contending team, you can take Brian Thomas Jr. and actually, you know, make him into AJ Brown. Yeah, that flight is. got Jacob feeling extra sassy with the naturally comment that came immediately after that. What was that, bro? He's just sassy.

I mean, what was? Well, no, just, Lucas, we've argued about Brian Thomas on the show. So I'm not on the anti-Bryantammas side of the train. I knew why. It just the sassiness of it was really. Oh, I didn't, I literally didn't. I didn't think he was as sassy. I didn't, I didn't intend it to be sassy.

I just meant it as like, well, that makes sense because you don't really like them. It was just so fast. Like there was zero. It was so fast. Jacob has been way sassier on this show for some of great things. So like that was nothing. I was like, all right.

Okay. My take on this is I think you should get more. I'm okay if you have to do this straight up. But I think you should get more. In real leagues, people see players scoring points and immediately value them higher because of that. Brian Thomas Jr., not scoring points lately.

you should be able to work your way into not doing this straight up. I don't like doing this straight up because AJ Brown is not past his AJ Pex yet. He's going to be 28 next year. Hertz is playing really good ball since like week five, I believe. I think you've still got elite selling window

for AJ Brown. I think straight up is a little light. That's all. But we're going to get into more of the theory in that as we go. I did see on a rebuilder from Michael Neer, what do you do with Chase Brown?

This is a big one because I have been I've seen people saying should I trade us 27 first? Oh, Tom's Tom's gone for anybody else. Okay. Just making sure it's. Yeah. Okay. So we're all, we're all here. Tom is the one that's gone.

All right. Okay. Well, Chase Brown. Speaking for myself, I would I would get out for any first, I think, just because I'm probably about a day three pick that had a second half of year to breakout. So with that type of. archetype. That's not, I would say, a player that's particularly secure in value. If you want to look for corollaries of players, even where this has worked out, you look at someone like a James Cook,

for instance, what's his value right now? It's probably a little above a late one, probably right around a late one. You look at, you know, the highest Rashad White ever got was like late one value. Isaiah Pacheco, the highest he ever got. Lucas is getting split down the middle here, but I don't think I could do anything about it. Sorry. I don't have access to the back end. I got it. You look at like Isaiah Pacheco,

you know, he never really got that much above like a late one value. So to me, that's kind of the cap on how much Chase Brown can be worth come, say, August next year. If everything rolls out really nicely for him in the off season. So that's what I would sell for.

Early two would be tough. Like that's one where I could see myself selling for like, a two and a three or a two and a throw in if I was really trying to shed points if I needed his points off my roster for some reason. But if that's not a major issue, I think I would probably rather roll the dice on Chase Brown over the off season than sell him for a two right now. Yeah, I agree. I would say like three years ago with how the dynasty community used to value running backs, then yeah, the instant advice is, yeah, go instantly on a rebuilder, go sell Chase Brown for a one. That's not really how it works in most leagues. I don't think you're getting a one for

Chase Brown at the moment. So yeah, I would almost say you get like a 27 one in some kind of home leagues. Chase Brown at third for a one as a trait that I'm seeing right now on Dynasty Day of Labs. There you go. Okay. Yeah, I'll take the one if I'm the rebuilder there, I suppose. Yeah. But I will say Chase Brown's a player. I'm okay. taking into the offseason on a rebuilder. If you're on a rebuilder, just identifying kind of player range of outcomes,

I think is important. So Chase Brown is a player where his range of outcomes that the highest, highest end at the best possible variance that can swing your way is what we're seeing these last two weeks, right?

I don't think the Bengals are ever going into a season with Chase Brown is the only viable running back on their roster that they're comfortable giving a touch to. But we know number one, as we talked about last week, that Chase Brown has been or has had that workforce profile previously in college and we're seeing him succeed with it in the NFL.

Do I think it's likely that that's the Chase Brown outcome a year from now? No, probably not. But on a rebuilder, if you're not locking in like that higher value that first, then who cares and just roll the dice on it because you you lose less with like a wide range of outcomes on a rebuild than you do on a contender because with rebuild you can always you can always roll it forward and keep rebuilding right so yeah forever rebuilding that's the real way to go that is where you have the most fun in dynasty fantasy football wherever you're you're never good but you always get to make lots of trades because you have lots of picks and yeah it's always a fun time. At least the perfect the

development of dynasty. For the, for the people in the audience, by the way, are our brave

host, Thomas Tipple, that his power has befallen him. So we will see whether or not Thomas comes back. I will take

over the hosting duties in the meantime, and we will do what we can. So, do we have any more questions in the

chat we want to get to? Real quick, Chase Brown. If, If nobody's buying off first, if you put in the league chat, any first for Chase Brown, but you're getting like off for two seconds. Is that something if you're sitting there at say 10th overall or the 10th ranked team,

would you be selling him for two seconds just to get those points off and knowing that you're probably taking a little less than ideal? Or where is that cut off to where you're just saying screw it? I'm moving on. I'm going to hold on to him until later. Yeah. So if you adopt my value. formula, which certainly nobody has to. My late one valuation, I put at about 0.75 of a base one

valuation. And then I put a base second at a third of a first and an early second at half a first. So basically, I would want to try to get up to that 0.75 valuation. So, you know, two base seconds gets us to 0.67. That's pretty darn close. So that's something I would potentially consider. But if one of those seconds, which it probably will be, is a 25-2 of a playoff team, I'm only putting a 0.25 valuation on that. I would need more than two late projective seconds. If one of those seconds is early and one of them is late, that's fine. If one of them is, you know, if it's like two, 26 seconds at a random, that's potentially more interesting to me. But I think that's right on the border line. I guess for my answer to that,

like I would throw another question back to you guys because I think what would push me one way or the other there is what Lucas said is how important do I feel it is to get these points off of my roster. And it's always a little bit dangerous to like feel super confident about like your specific rookie pick tiers this far out from when anybody is drafting rookies. but I mean if it were if it was the difference between like gentie and the 102 like it maybe that's motivating I don't know you you guys probably have more solid gene t isn't that Lucas I got to check with the Debbie correspondent here okay yeah don't I don't I don't I assume my bad ashton ginty is it jenty okay that's I've always said it but that's probably like that because Lucas that could be right I don't we're going to find out together that's off season either way

I don't like that. I mean, with you guys as like, do you guys feel strongly enough about specific pick tiers at this point? Not this year. That would be a tiebreaker for I need to get points off my roster very desperate. This year is the least that I've ever cared that much about the margins of that. Like, I would obviously still rather be 101 because there's just opportunities for that to break in better ways for you. You know, if there's, like, this year. year it's going to be tough. Gentie slash Jeanty, you know, looks like a pretty solid bet to get, you know, potential round one draft capital. He's going to be beloved by everybody in the fantasy

community because of his profile. And there's a couple other really interesting running backs, too. The wide receiver stuff is like, you know, there's going to be good wide receiver prospects, but I don't suspect there's going to be any wide receiver prospect that is coveted to the degree that like Harrison or neighbors was. You know, McMillan is going to be, uh, certainly a sought after player. Hunter is going to be fascinating to deal with in the lead up to

rookie draft because we don't know if he's going to play receiver or not. And then, um, you know, after that, it's like burden, like Bukke, I have questions about those guys. And the quarterback class, I mean,

the one guy that probably has the most brew upside. If he somehow gets the draft capital, it would be Milro, because he's such a ridiculous athlete. but if I put on my NFL evaluator hat, I wouldn't draft him in the first round, but maybe another team will. And then Ward, we'll see what we make. But a lot of the other guys, like, there's not a massive rushing element to a lot of the

other guys in the class. So I don't know. What do you think, Lucas? I mean, I think you're nailing it. We were really hoping that quarterback would emerge. Like, if Carson Beck would have reputed his performance from last season, I think everybody would feel a little bit better. We've known for a while that this right back class is going to be amazing.

And I think the wide receiver classes, it's going to be another solid class, but we're going to lack that, like, true elite prospect that we've seen with Marvin Harrison, Jr. It will be a little bit closer to neighbors in terms of how I think people value like Tet as a prospect. But I still think that neighbors going to come out a little bit higher. So it's a good draft class, especially just because of how we look at young running backs. It's so easy to get excited. but the fact that we don't have like quarterbacks to to bank on. I also think that should really be factoring into how you're organizing your trades. If you are just trying to sell quarterbacks because you're like, oh, I just want draft picks.

And I'm really trying to make sure I'm tanking that it makes zero sense to be acquiring at least draft picks for this season, wherever you're selling quarterbacks and not getting quarterback in return, which has a big agree yet. But yeah. If you're trying to sell a, you know, if you're trying to sell off a quarterback, like, let's say you have a rebuilder and you're trying to get value for like one of these veteran quarterbacks, Gino, cousin, Staff, or whatever, like one that almost certainly will be starting somewhere next year. I, yeah, I agree with Lucas. I think it would be pretty inadvisable to sell one of those guys for like a single two and then not have a plan of who your QB2 is going to be next year because I don't think it's a draft class you want to go in expecting to draft your week one. starting second quarterback from the 2025 class. Probably Cam Ward is a week one starter somewhere.

Probably Shadurah's. I don't know. I have issues with him, but we'll see. But yeah, that's one to watch out. And then I would say generally speaking, I have never in my entire time playing dynasty had a lower proportion of firsts in the upcoming draft to leagues than I have right now. I've been pretty willing to send out late once because I just suspect like this

quarterback class, I have a ton of questions about. I don't think the wide receiver class is super deep in terms of top end talent. And then from a running back perspective, like we all love the running back profiles. Remember, we all love the running back profiles in 20, 23 pre-draft. I don't think that there are enough NFL teams interested in drafting round two running backs to get all of these running backs, the level of draft capital, that you want to take them in the first round of a rookie draft. I think there's going to be a lot of running backs that are going to be very fun to take with round two and round three picks in rookie drafts. but I don't know that there's going to be a lot of running backs

and count on for day one production. All right, let's do one more question from Tristan James and then we'll turn it back over to Tom as soon as he shows proof of life. I can see him. I just can't, I haven't heard him yet. But Tristan asks, does rebuilding always entail acquiring draft picks? I've been stalking up on long-term upside plays,

pickings down, Hawkinson, and even sling picks a doo-jo, have a strong young core on my route. So if you check out, I did a piece on reason to trade in dynasty that's on my substack and I'm going to be writing a piece on deadline buying this week and I'll link to that. I have a chart find that. You find that

on my substack, Jacobsanderson dot substack.com. I was going to say in the description, but you came close. Find that in the description. I have this chart in that piece where I break into, you know, people are familiar with my writing and process.

I was talking about the three currencies of buying power on your roster. your picks, your productive value, which is the points you're scoring right now this season, and then the EYR value, your value in expected years remaining. The higher portion of your roster that you store into picks versus like into EYR value and especially versus into productive value, the more that you will accumulate in future years because the picks are the guaranteed return on investment. The young players, what you're hoping there is to avoid massive depreciation of value,

but typically in Dynasty, we don't actually see that the average for year two and later players is to increase their value. Every player that's not a rookie on average, on the aggregate, declines each year in value. So obviously, I would rather have a Downs or a Hawkinson or Pickens on a rebuilding team than, you know, a Mike Evans or an Margie. or in a, Travis Kelsey. But really, I would phrase those pieces more as pieces you don't have to sell below your value and pieces that you can throw into a trade if you need to match value to get for whatever

you're selling. But I wouldn't make that my core piece because usually if you're rebuilding, the reason you're rebuilding is because you don't have enough value on your team. So if you just put all of your stock then into younger players, it doesn't usually work that those younger players start to accumulate more and more and more value. Usually what will happen is one or two will hit in a massive way. The others tend to stagnate or decline, and you're going to just wind up being perpetually middling.

So usually kicks and injured players are the most guaranteed spots to increase value. Right. It's cool to have the flashy young player that's the new hotness, but then you run into problems where now you've traded your liquid assets for a player like downs and his role decreases when he should be smashing, which happened in the first week that Joe Flacco played, and then he still didn't show a lead upside this last week. So you're running the risk with these players,

just never being what we thought they would. And yeah, like Jacob said, those picks, they are the most liquid acid you can have. We have Liam, who said, what do you do with Cedric Tillman on a Rebuilder? You just hold him unless you get like an insane offer. right he's a basically just our chase brown conversation yeah same exactly yeah there you go yep exactly um all right let's dive into you know what actually we're gonna get next break out of the way

then we'll finally get into our show sheet caught up with the chat let's dive into i see some other theory questions i am going to or figure a way to i'm gonna star them right now and then whatever we don't cover with what we're going to get into, we will come back to those because we're basically about to do theory for the rest of the show. So lock in, chances are your question's going to get answered one way or the other.

If it isn't, just hit us back with it. Sit tight. We'll be right back. Then it's theory time. My favorite time for Dynasty. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans. We've mastered made to measure growth

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which is like something that pissed me off, It's we pick one thing that pisses us off in the dynasty community every week and then we talk about it because we are all chronically online and we see all this stuff that drives me nuts. Well, one thing that I wanted to ask all of us on this show for everybody is what exactly is a rebuild? What exactly is tearing down because there was chatter about what to do with the one of A natural 101 And the clip that I and a bunch of other people saw going around Was from the Dynasty Nerds that said would you take Baker Mayfield or the 101

And I went through the comments and I was surprised that how many people said That you need to have the elite quarterback to complete a rebuild So this led me to think maybe the idea of what a rebuild is and what you need needs to get talked about because yes 29 year old quarterback putting up god tier numbers out doing some of the rushers he's number two and points per game awesome not going to fix your rebuild so let's talk about what a rebuild actually is because i think people do misunderstand what that is and how they should go about it so first off let's kick it off what is a rebuild, what does it mean?

Let's start with Jacob, and then we'll just kind of add as we go. All right. So I did a video on Dynasty 101 where I kind of talked about all different categorizations that I put my rosters into. And the difference between what I have

is my tear downs and tanks, and then what I have is these reloads. And the difference there is am I not competing this year for value-based reasons? or other reasons, which is usually injury-based. And to me, that's where I get into this idea of tear-downs and rebuilds. So all rebuilds should involve tear-downs, but not all tear-downs are necessarily rebuilds.

And what I mean by that is you rebuild your roster. To me, a rebuild is because you do not have enough value on your roster to legitimately compete in a sustainable way. So you need to find a way to inject more value on your team. How do you do that? We just talked about it, the last question. The most consistent way to increase value in your roster is you go trade for future picks because every year that that pick comes closer to conveying, it accrues a little bit more value,

a little bit more value, a little bit more value. You also naturally get the value of your own picks increasing in value if you are bad. You know, that 2025 base first that you had in the summer is now going to be worth two base first because it's the 101 or it's the 102. That's the most surefire way to do it. So if you are going to need to rebuild, to me, the fastest way to rebuild, the most effective way to rebuild is to sell off pretty much everything on your roster, put all of that value into injured players, into picks, into things that are sure to accrue value, try to boost your total roster value up as quickly as possible, and then repurchase assets once you have enough value to do so to try and compete. But there's a little bit of a different scenario, which is, you know, what I would consider a reload, which is where you have a high value team or at least a reasonably high value team. you were ready to compete this year.

You had the season from hell. I nuk went down, Rashi Rice went down, DAC went down, Lawrence, whoever it was. You just overturned a million injuries. And it's to the point where you're going to, you can just basically keep your team and you're going to be in a perfectly fine position to compete next year.

You don't want to upset the apple cart and have to go through all this process of making all these transactions, reading all these transactions. In that case, I'm just purely selling off expiring old dudes. and then basically just running it back with the same roster next year because it's just not worth it to me to try and sell off all my injured players

at losses to try and compete. So that would be the difference to me between a reload and a full-on rebuild where it's all about a value inject. Yeah, I think that's really important to clarify in terms of like what you're actually looking at. You don't want to be on the treadmill of mediocrity. We talk about this a lot. If you're just like, oh, if I can just get into the play,

playoffs, it's already too late. Right. If you're in that five and six spot, even the seven spot and you're like, well, if this guy loses and then I win two in a row and then I just have to outscore the next guy so I can win in a tie. It's over for you. Now, maybe you've gotten there because McCaffrey didn't play and you were holding out hope. And Kelsey sucked early on.

And you made a trade early to really secure that running back who missed three weeks. And you traded away Chase Brown to get. stable production and now that guy's broken out and you feel bad about it's it's time right we we get into narrative driving it's time i don't believe in the just back in and for the people that are like oh i got in as a six seed and i and i want i do it good for you then that that this statement isn't for you then you're you're the best fantasy player there is shout out this podcast isn't for you but for all the people that don't have that kind of luck you don't want to get stuck being in the seven spot because we're going to, I know the trade deadline thing is going to come up.

There should be no trade deadlines and people who have trade deadlines in dynasty or lunatics, all that stuff. We're going to get into that on the trade deadline show. I think next week, that's usually when we do it. Oh, by the way, my entire introduction of the column that will come out either tonight or tomorrow. It's just all about why trade deadlines are good and why they need to happen. But it also serves as a strategy guide for.

non-trade deadline leagues because I basically just go through all of the perverse, horrific incentives that no deadline leagues create. And so if you're a commissioner, I hope that you read that and are convinced to install trade deadline. But if you're a player at a no trade deadline league, I hope that you embrace all of the perverted incentives to try and dominate your opponents. Yeah. Yeah.

That's a whole conversation that people really feel passionately about. So I can't wait for that one. But like you don't want to get stuck in that seven spot. and have no ability to make an adjustment or change anything. So obviously it's important. So I deal with my cat in the background. So let's dive into the next thing then. Now that we've identified what it is,

how do you, it's kind of my lead in, how do you really know that your team is, it's over? because I do have teams that are like six and four right now that I'm like, man, I'd like to get rid of some of these assets, but I am here. It's hard to come to terms with that. It's also hard to do that when there's like four teams tied with you from like eight through, you know, eight through four, right? If there's so many teams that are tied around the same points for how do you know it's time? When is the tipping point? Let's really dive into that because it can be hard to look at your

team. We'll get yourself in the mirror and say it's time to let go. How do you start identifying when it's time? I'll start with Ryan. So I'll kind of rephrase the question. So what you're really asking is evaluate your chances of winning your league this year and stack that up against if I were to sell off and a crew value, whatever it is that I need to do in this little mini teardown. stack that up against the improvement in your chances of winning your league next year from executing on that even if we say if you execute on it perfectly what is the additional win equity that you're going to have next year that's how i would try to think of it um the reason for that is because it as you're saying it can be very hard uh to self scout and be very honest

with yourself about your team and your chances but i think if you put that up again also your team just one year in the future that as the comparison point then that can make it easier to kind of see clearly so yeah I guess that would be like my one little tip there in terms of how how are you determining if your roster is for real or not for real this year yeah anything to add no okay so for me for me it gets for me it gets easy by looking at your points for I think that your points for is going to do a lot of the heavy lifting in your decision. If you are in fifth place and you are eighth or ninth and points four,

you're lucky, buddy. Like that's, you are winning the battle of win losses. Maybe you don't have league median. That's a whole different type of situation. You have to be able to look at and go, I'm getting lucky here. Do I,

A, spend more to continue to roll the dice? Or B, do I understand that I'm, getting lucky and maybe it's time to still move these pieces out while I'm ahead. That's a very difficult thing to do. If you're sitting there and you're one game out and maybe you look in the I just started doing a tear down.

I'm fifth or sixth and max points four. I'm eighth overall. I'm at 500. No shot I'm getting into the playoffs. I just did a mass fire sale on all my vets. That was very hard for me to do five years almost. I think five years with that team competing. I have the second most wins.

I think you have the most points four since that league started. I finally had to do it. Your points four is going to determine it. Really. If you are like third in your league and you are ninth in points four, you should have been identifying early that you needed to sell some stuff. I wouldn't be giving away assets to continue to try to win that. In my opinion, some people might,

but I'm not testing the fantasy gods and the wind luck. format. I'm not doing it. So your points for is definitely going to help do a lot of the heavy lifting. I have a very like zoomed out answer and then I have a little bit more of a zoomed in answer. So the very zoomed out answer is the north star of every strategic decision you make on your dynasty team, you should be trying to think of it in terms of how does this increase the expected value of my team? And when I say expected value, I mean literal money, like the expected value in your pocket of your team over X period of time. I like to try to think of a sort of just an indeterminate period of time, but if you want to pick five years, whatever, 10 years. And in general,

the way to think about that then is there's basically three types of years that you can have going into dynasty. You can either have a non-competitive year in which your win equity is zero percent, right? You're not competing. You have what I would say is a favorite year, which is when you have a reasonable chance of getting a buy, much better than average chance of getting a buy, or you have a contending year, which is when you're probably favored to make the playoffs, but you don't have one of those true top teams. And what you want to do, obviously, is you really want to minimize the total number of non-competitive years over whatever period of time. And so generally speaking, you want to look at your situation and ask, like, based on the context of my team,

is this a good, is this a better year to try to force this to be a competitive year, or by accepting this as a non-competitive year, am I going to save myself from a future non-competitive year? For instance, if I keep pushing this year for a 50% chance to make the playoffs, am I now going to have to do a two-year rebuild instead of a one-year rebuild? Because in that case, it'd be much better to eat it now, when you only have a half chance of making the playoffs as it is, and then it's going to take a year off your rebuild, that's a trade you should make every day. In terms of considering whether or not to do it, it's a sliding scale and it's a really hard because it's a contextual pick.

You know, first of all, what do you actually gain from tearing it down? The teams with the most to gain from tearing it down are the teams with the most active veterans that you can get a lot more now in value than you'll be able to get in the offseys. Also, obviously the teams that will benefit more would be teams that you have your own first

round pick so that by selling, you can go and actually increase the value of your first, take it from the one seven down to maybe the one three. And to a lesser extent, all your other picks. And then the other thing is like, do you have any chance, realistic chance of getting a buy? I'm assuming most teams, if they're deciding to dare it down at this point in the

season, don't. But that would be it. And then obviously your playoff odds. So basically it's just looking at what do I gain from tearing it down? How much value can I accrue by selling off veterans, you know, and by improving my own picks? And then what is the actual chance that I would win this league if I keep going the way that I'm going, that I'm foregoing?

And whichever one of those has a better input on your expected value, you know, that's what I think you should try to do. So then when we look at a lot of the times when people are looking at it and they're, you know, five and five or they're six and four, it comes down to, well, I don't really have, because obviously your team's not that good, right, if you're there and you're not. Like, if you're six and four and you're number one in points four, but also like number two and points against, your team. team is good. You know, that's the like, why are you giving me harder challenges meme, right? That's, that's what those teams are. Like, I do see teams that are out of the playoffs and they're number two and points four. Like, that's just the Jesus meme. That's all that is. So you're good. You don't have to do much there. But if, if you're looking at it and you don't really have those elite players, maybe Rice got hurt, you're good. But like, if you lost Godwin, if you've been missing guys like

Evans. I posted, there's like the list of players that we've now gone without over the first 10 weeks of the year. It's truly insane. And maybe you're getting some of those guys back. It's like you've made a trade deadline acquisition, you get Nico Collins off your IR, stuff like that. Great. But what about the teams that are looking at, and I have an example of my own, I've been doing this looking in the mirror trying to figure this out. I have a team where the only player someone is interested in are my elite guys. It's, Drake London. It's Ken Walker. Do you trade elite players? And Jacob, you and I did this over with Full Tilt a couple years ago. Should you trade your Justin Jefferson's in a tier down? A lot of people are

afraid to do that. A lot of people don't actually get the four first offer that they should get for some of these assets. We get a lot of questions about it. When you're one of those middling teams, do you trade your elites? And if you do, what are the situations? to do so. Well, as always, it depends. And I think the biggest thing that should overarch all of your decision making is the buying power of your team, the market value of your team, because if you think about Justin Jefferson and his purpose as an asset to a dynasty team, it's like a savings account. Like, it is very, very secure. You're very unlikely to take a loss because we all know what he is, and he's very young. But he has also virtually no way of increasing his value. He is going to be

roughly at is 3 to 3.5 base one's value or however you measure value for the next three to four years. That makes him probably the most valuable asset you can have on a very high value team, but it makes them a very, very poor asset to have on a very low value team. Think about it. If you have $100 and I tell you, you need to make $200 and you have, you put $50 into a savings account that will go up or down zero percent. It's just going to stay as $50. Now that remaining $50, you have to increase the value of that by 200 percent to get to that $200 mark. But if you put all of your $100 into play, you only need to increase it by 100 percent, take it up to that $200 mark. So if you're one of the lowest value teams in your league and you're effectively just carving out

a third of the value on your roster by placing it all in the Just of Jefferson Savings, account, it puts way too much pressure on you to try and create these massive value games playing with one hand tied behind your back. Because a lot of your roster value is stored in something that can't really do anything. It's just going to sit there. And yes, maybe you lose that trade. Maybe you trade them for three first and you blow the picks. But like, if you already have a low value team, you're fucked anyhow. So you need to inject variance into your life. You to embrace that variance and try to give yourself opportunities to create legitimate gains in market value. If you have a reasonably high value team or at least a middling value team,

then maybe it's more worth it for you to say, you know what, I'll trade everything but Jefferson and I'll try to make up the margins elsewhere. That's totally reasonable. And then obviously, as anybody would say, that's just my view in terms of whether you should be trading Jefferson at or roughly near market value. You know, if you're offered way above, you should probably always sell them. And if you're offered nowhere close to it, you should not sell them. But that would be my theory in terms of whether or not to try to sell it. I want to kind of tack on to that too, because I think this circles back to what we were

talking about with kind of the question of Baker Mayfield earlier on, where the kind of just copy paste everything Jacob just said about Justin Jefferson, that applies to. to the quote unquote elite QB in a way as well. Yeah, they're hopefully at least they're a stable asset. I don't believe this about Baker Mayfield, by the way, but that seemed to be kind of the argument coming from that side of it. It's like, well, oh, well, Baker Mayfield is like what you need to get to like get out of your rebuild, right? Justin Jefferson is what you need to find.

You need to find that elite player. no you need to find like four elite players at very low cost to get out of your rebuild and yeah as jacob's saying if you're locking up a bunch of roster value that you can no longer take those swings with then yeah you're just you're going to be forever rebuilding around that one valuable player that is never going to get anything else up around them yeah it's one of those things i always hate the like i'm building around player X and player Y. And when I'm ready to compete,

these are going to be my building blocks. Well, nine times out of ten, if you tear it down to the studs, I hate to tell you, but by the time you're ready to compete, those guys are 31, and they're no longer elite, and now you try to move them,

and you wonder why you can't get the elite return on them. That happens a lot. That takes me to, how do you manage planning for this because it can be really hard to plan for a rebuild because you need a lot of things to go right right this is where i i don't think that the punt year one strategy is as easy as it used to be this can be applied for the rebuild you have to be active which is why if you're tearing it down to the studs you better be ready to be active you cannot just do this and hope all

the pieces fall into place for you when you're rebuilding it it's important to remember, you're not the only one. Chances are there's three teams in your league already that have started this process before you. They started this process either at the draft or if this league is a couple years old, they started it two years ago. How do you swerve the rest of your league and plan ahead? I have an answer for this because I'm currently doing this.

I want to go last here. I'd love to get, you know, everyone else's opinion on this. because I started doing this in like 2020, even in 2019 in the home league. And I was kind of deemed as like weird at the time in that league for doing it the way that I do it. But I've done it since and it's been successful. So how do you,

I saw this question in the chat too. How do you swerve on the rest of the league when you're already behind the eight ball? There's three teams that already have eight of the 25 first. And they've got six or seven of the three. 26 verse. How are you going about it? It can be difficult when you're starting at this time of the year, but how are you planning your rebuilds when you're comparing it to everyone else in the league already

trying to do the same thing? I want to start with Lucas. Dang, that is a very tough question. It is. It's an important question. Yeah. So you said something earlier on to like you can't be like laissez-faire about a rebuild. Like whenever you're planning for it.

You can't just like leave that league alone. Like that league requires a lot of attention on your part, at least until like if you end up getting every single first round pick, then yeah, you can sit there, sit on those until the rookie draft, then start doing something with them. But it really requires a lot of time and effort to make sure that you're pulling value out of those teams,

that you're finding the appropriate times whenever a team's going to actually offer you what's needed for like last year Zach Moss was a good example but making sure you're staying on the pulse of any of these teams that are coming up on a playoff run and the running back Chase Brown's going to be a good example this season potentially even like when's the time to move off some of these rookies like if you have a Bucky Irving that you spent a late second on like are you staying on top of that to see whenever he's going to start to

transition into a first round pick stuff like he has yeah so you have to stay on top of that. You have to stay on top of the value. As you're looking forward, that's whenever it becomes a little bit tougher whenever you're competing with the same ones. I'm in a lot of leagues where, unfortunately, because I love rebuilding,

there's a lot of people rebuilding with me. So the way I start to prioritize it is one, if you can start to get to the 101, that's awesome. To then, like Jacob's been talking about, start to stockpile those injuries. I don't care. how severe it is.

If you can start to stockpile those, that does give you a better chance on the rebound. You have some value that's insulated there. That's not recognized yet until they start to come off the IR. And that starts to then put you in a really good position in the future to start to leapfrog some of those other teams that are seeing there in the rebuild that don't have any way of having like massive organic sort of point jumps that are just buried on their roster, like what you will be having. Another thing then, too, is you're starting to actually like to look forward. You understand that you are sacrificing some of the ability to really improve wherever you're looking at 26, 27 picks. But you're actively trying to acquire those on your roster as well, even if it is at the sacrifice of, say, like, a late 251 or what you're projecting to be a late 251, so on and so forth. Like, there are definitely ways to start to set yourself up into the future.

start to put stuff into, I'm going to call it the draft pick saving account. I like what Jacob was saying about the Justin Jefferson saving account, but you can start to put those, you know, we'll call it a money market account. I don't know. I don't know if Canada has money market accounts or not, but something with a little bit higher yield on it. Right. But that's how I kind of take it is you don't want to put all of your assets into like one

type of rebuilding asset. You want to try to spread it out, find ways that you can have that organic sort of like growth on your team at scheduled points that you want it. And then also making sure that you're really staying on the pulse of your league to find wherever there's those opportune times to capitalize on any sort of value that your roster might have that will be more valuable to you in the future if you start making those moves. So I'll kind of build on this a little bit where, yeah, I think just like in terms of tiering, like what I'm going after on a rebuild in terms of priority, really the question is what if the picks aren't available, right?

Because there are another rebuilding teams already. So the first thing you try to go for is the picks. Second, for me, would be injured players. Third would just be picks further out into the future that may be on roster still that are that aren't actively rebuild. This point should be your priority anyway, I think, is 26 and 27 picks because you're not going to get as much value upside from a 2025 because nobody's trading early 2025s. You're just getting a late 2025 that is a late 2025.

And then the last thing I would say is volatile young players. So, and again, this is like a last resort. This is not how I want to try to rebuild a roster generally. but you can check in on like the rookies that aren't producing but that have excuses who could see a value bump in the offseason because of a move their teammates or or even if you just go into next season with them and they kind of defy the odds like this would be where I'm checking in on like a tray Benson or a Marshaun Lloyd or just trying to or maybe like the rookie wide receivers that have been kind of kind of. kind of up and down. Keon Coleman's a bad example. He's probably a little too expensive right now. I don't know. Like just random guys. I think Keishon Bouthey was like a random name I wrote on the show sheet in terms of, oh, maybe this guy has a little bit of juice, right? Just find all of these players that probably are not super efficiently allocated onto rebuilders in all but the most hardcore

of leagues and get them thrown into deals. Just try to accumulate as many of these lot of ticket players as you can, obviously at value, at fair market value, which is what we say with everything. Because if one or two of those hits, that can be like your variance value bump that a pick might have provided. It's not ideal. It's not what I want to do. But I think it's kind of your last resort, if you're really really.

totally boxed out of the ability to get any picks or get any injured players who we can be reasonably sure will increase in value a year from now. Love Ryan's point. If you think about it, it's like a hedge fund, right? You just collect, if you think of what hedge fund managers do, right? They're just investing in a bunch of one and 100 shots that are priced as one and 200 shots. And 99 of them fail. but if that one hits, they end up making double their money.

And so you're just taking a bunch of shots on a bunch of bad bets, but hopefully bets that wind up being slightly plus EV in the aggregate. And because you have the opportunity to take on the most of them, you have the most opportunity to realize the expected value of that in the aggregate. So I love what Ryan said there. The real answer is this is why there is a helpful first mover advantage. to getting ahead of the tear down so that you don't end up in these spots where it's very stagnant between all the teams that are going to make the playoffs are the only teams buying and they don't

need to buy because they have all the players and everybody else has all the picks and you're kind of stuck. I'd been in that spot before. This isn't quite that scenario, but it's somewhat similar where if you ever feel like it's a buyer's market, because there's only a couple of buyers teams that are really actively trying to buy. But there's a bunch of teams trying to sell. Never underestimate. And it needs to be a pretty liquid league to try this. But I have done it before is you just buy from the other sellers and then you monopolize

the selling market and say, hey, three buyers. Now I have all of the pieces and I'm going to upcharge you. It works out sometimes. It's a high risk maneuver. But in a very liquid league, you ever find yourself in a buyer's market. eliminate the other sellers by buying them out of their stock and becoming a monopoly is the last resort. But that would be very fourth behind picks, injured guys, and hedge fund.

I think there's also value in looking at veterans that can gain value the next year. Darnell Mooney was a perfect example of this. If you were a rebuilder last year and you wanted to take a flyer on someone that has shown to be good, knowing they were going to go into a different situation. Darnow Mooney was that was one of those guys. And look at him now. You definitely, I've seen them get traded for seconds already.

You can get them put into deals, have them go up. Look at guys like Elijah Moore. They usually get tossed in for free if you ask somebody that has them stashed on their bench and go, give me Elijah Moore in here. You know, you've given me my second and a third.

I'm not quite there. Give me guys like Elijah Moore, who Scott is so happy to be able to talk about again. he's like a kid going back to kindergarten it's it's you know really really phenomenal to see but there's guys like Trey Tucker out there

Roman Wilson's another guy out there these are guys that can potentially gain value or get a return for you next year as well kind of gets you ahead and they're often forgotten about type players for me there is an easy answer

to solving this question of I started this late how do I get ahead A value loss today is a value gain tomorrow. Now, what do I mean by this? I am never afraid of losing immediate value on a trade in the immediate. Okay. It works exactly the same as we talked with Brian Thomas Jr. and Puka Nakua in the overpaying now looks like a deal tomorrow.

It works the same way. I want picks two years apart. I say this on this show all the time because they are the cheapest they are ever going to be. Now there are hurdles. Okay, well, my league charges you if you have to do that. I don't know if I want to financially commit. Pay it and have the person pay it back to you.

That's fascism. Have the person pay it back to whatever. Do what you have to do. I don't care. There's a way around that. Get creative. I want the picks in 27. 28, even I will say

that's a little far. Not available on Super. That's the hurdle. Yeah, that's like, that's not, not far. But I know there are people out there that play in leagues

where they are available, whatever. 27 picks are the cheapest they're ever going to be. However, every single day that goes by, they get more and more relevant. If you have a guy like Debo

on your team, and I know this, because I just did this. If you have a guy like Debo, Samuel, 27 first I can get. Whether that team is good now, two years is a long time. A lot of things can happen in the NFL. That team that's good now, players can blow their knees out unfortunately, sign with new teams, quarterbacks can retire, anything can happen. Their value can just go into the toilet.

So instead of trading that Debo Samuel for what is a late 25 first, and we know is going to be late, you know you're getting 110 to 112 and you look at that roster and you go, this team's probably going to be really good next year too. Like, let's be honest. Especially if you know a person is a good manager,

but 27? We don't know. Maybe that manager flips the script, sells all his vets. Now you have an advantage. Go and get the 27th. I traded Christian McCaffrey, right?

And I got a 27 first in return. No problem doing that. And I post that and people go, oh, you sold out, that's not enough, for now. But in 2027, I'm going to go, how did I get this 27 first? I'm not going to look at it and go, oh, well, in 2025, I didn't move Christian McCaffrey for enough. No, I'm already done thinking about that. I'm going to not worry about how many points he scores now.

He's not on my roster. I don't have to hold my breath every time Christian McCaffrey tries to get up on the field because I'm afraid his ankles are going to explode. That's gone. I'm already looking at 27. In 27, you're not going to even remember how that asset got on your roster. There are times I look at roster. How did I end up with player X?

And then I just go through the trade history. None of it mattered at that point. The only thing that mattered is what I did after that trade was accepted. I don't think I can recall a single example of making a trade for a pick two plus years out, a first round pick, two plus years out, that by the time that that pick conveyed that I regretted. Like it, the value asymmetry is so huge where, you know, if that, that pick is probably going to get traded as a late one, just because it's so far out. And so say you trade someone worth a base one today and it's 0.75. The worst case scenario is that's the small loss you take.

The best case scenario is you fast forward, you know, and that that 271 is now worth two and a half firsts or two first, whatever, because, you know, it's the 101. You're drafting Jeremiah Smith. So Archie Manning, etc. Yeah. So I'm big in on that strategy for sure. And the last thing I'd say is similar to what Tom just said. From a psychological perspective, sometimes you just got to get one low sell in. Because a lot of times you'll see you, I'm selling, you know, they'll put everybody on the block and nobody wants to go through the whole process of sending you out offers.

and like if you just actually start sending offers that are like like just sell send one or two out that are like clearly very favorable buys for other people people be like oh my god whoa he's i didn't know he was that serious i didn't know he was he was selling that low and then all of a sudden you start to get a stream of offers coming in and you start to get a rabid bit of conversation about it once you sort of get get things moving the momentum of the league can really carry you you want to create that arms race yeah so it's funny that you're you say that because that happened. That happened in the league I'm talking about

where I was talking to another manager and I was saying, look, I bet people just don't believe I'm selling or I'm willing to sell at a loss or I'll say a perceived loss because to me it's not a loss. I'm getting the job done and I'm getting ahead. So to me it's not a loss.

And I go, I bet you if I just get one deal done, I'll get more done. Like the floodgates need to open. and sure enough, the first deal went through that Debo for the, it was Debo and, and someone I can't remember for the 27, it was Echler. It was Debo and Echler for 271. I don't care about Austin Echler. I don't think he's going to be in the league in two more years.

So what do I care? So I just instant accepted it. And I sure is shit, two more deals got done in the next 10 minutes because people, I got flooded in my inbox, because people, like, oh, he's serious. What Jacob said quite literally just happened yesterday. It's 100% true. Some people just need to see that there is the buying window because we joke about it a lot. Just putting a player on the block doesn't do anything. It does nothing. In fact, it does the opposite. I get fewer trades done when I just start mass putting people on the block. A, it pisses people off. They get tired of the notifications. I turn them off for that reason. And no one actively wants to send trade offers.

They'll send you a DM asking, what do you want for player X? At the end of the day, you're still going to have to put the offer together. It's just how the trading market works. But you're absolutely right. Sometimes you do just need to take that hit. And that ties in perfectly with everything I just said. And people might ask, well, and I see, I wish I could get that trade done. You probably can if you just stop worrying about losing a trade.

One of the fastest way to rebuild your team, stop caring. team, stop caring what people in your league are going to think. Stop caring about you potentially looking dumb or looking bad or being taken advantage of. Just stop. The minute you stop worrying about looking like a donkey in a trade, you will get better at getting trades done. Stop playing for the clicks and start playing for bread in the long term. and you're going to leave everyone in your league in the dust

because you're not afraid to take that loss. So I think that is a great way to segue through one last break. And I think we have one more thing I really want to hit with this, this kind of introduction to trading down and tearing down. I think it's important to set a limit on how far you tear your teams down. You might be wondering how we're going to do that. sit tight we come back from the break we're going to dive right in you're going to catch back up with the questions after that do player picks

and get out of here stay locked in more on the other side of the break okay one thing that really grinds my gears as Toronto Dave would say is people assume or I shouldn't say people assume I will say I see it a lot that when they say I have to rebuild, they tear it completely, no players. They want 37 draft picks. To me, this is crazy. I think that at some point, or at least in most points, most situations, you do want to have

some player value on your roster. You do not have to trade every player. If you have a Garrett Wilson, a Drake London, you do not have to tear it down to the studs. So let me get the feel of the room. because some people may disagree here. Do you tear it all the way down to the foundation? What is the line for you? What are the players you keep?

What are the situations you keep players? I feel like there is a whole area here where some people just say, I'm blowing it completely up. Let me get 27 second round picks. Do you have a limit and do you take it to the studs? My like firm answer is no limit. I've never put anyone off the table.

but as I've kind of said to everything, I think it depends. The biggest thing it depends on is just the liquidity of your league. So like, if you're in a home league and if your home league is like our home league, then you probably know what I'm talking about

when I say that there are probably two or three teams that have been at this for five or six years and they're way ahead of the pack. And there's probably two or three teams that are pretty destitute. And then of all the managers in the middle, half of them, you know, take three weeks.

to check their trade offers. So if you're in a league like that, then you really can't be trying to tear this whole thing down to the studs because you're probably going to have to actually make all of these draft picks. Because in a league like that, you know, a lot of the young studs are going to be on the teams that are going to be good in perpetuity and they have no incentive to trade away those youngs. And a lot of the other players you could get are stuck on, you know,

Kyle, who hasn't checked his phone since the Obama administration. So you're just very limited in terms of what you can actually do to maneuver in a league like that because you're not playing in a perfectly competitive market. In theory, in a perfectly liquid hypothetical league, I would like to trade everything on my team that isn't a rookie or a draft pick because I would like to just center all of my value in the athletes that have the highest chance of gaining value. I just make all of the picks year one or more or less. I let them try to accrue value. And then I buy back, whatever I need to buy back from future picks, from rookies,

from sophomores, et cetera, from there, whenever I feel like I have enough value to actually turn my team into contender. That's my ideal world. But you need to figure out, in my opinion, how close is your league to that? ideal world to make that viable. And then the other thing that I do want to stress, I feel very passionately about this in both directions. You should never, if you're in a rebuild, you're not in a position to take anyone off the table, even if there is someone that for whatever reason, you know, the liquidity of your league, it's your favorite player, you have his jersey,

you think he's a young cornerstone of your team, whatever it is. If someone offers you a substantial overpay, you just take that. You just have to take that. Because ultimately, you're in the name of the game is a accruing value. And then on the other side of things, I increasingly recently see players make the mistake of feeling like they have to sell everybody and actually just kind of selling low on young players. And that is a particularly new and odd phenomenon to me, but I don't suggest doing that. There's a big difference between, uh-oh, I just went to four and six and I have James Connor on my roster, you know, and maybe I'll sell a little lower than I hope to sell for because I'm not getting the offer that I wanted to get. That's fine, but definitely

don't find yourself in the position of like, I have Jemir Gibbs and nobody's offering me two firsts. So I guess I just have to sell for a single late first because I have to sell everything. It's like, don't, you know, don't do that. That's what I'm talking about. Think about in terms of what do you think this player is going to be valued to you in August next year? What is their value now? And if you can get something in the middle of those, that's totally fine. But if you're just selling for something that's going to be less, then you think they're going to be valued this time next year, don't bother in any case. Yeah, that's the point I was seriously making. Also, there's no, there's no actual Kyle, by the way. Yeah. I was looking at the chat. I'm like,

did I miss? I guess that was just the main example. I said, I said, I just said Kyle is the guy who hasn't check this phone since the Obama. Oh, there we go. All right. I miss God's a real question. I was just trying to think of a name that isn't actually in any of our leagues. And Kyle was the first

like generic non-phone checking name I could come up with. And now he is... I have one. No, no, no, I have one. I have one. Kieran, I swear. Kieran, check your trade inboxes. Because you text me and ask me

questions about trades in other leagues. knowing that a trade has been in your inbox for 21 days. And you go, no, I'll look at it right away. And three days later, you text me asking for help in another league. Okay, I will call you out. There is a Kyle out there. His name is Kieran. And I'm over it.

I see you in the league chats. Just check your trade inboxes. God. Hey, Tom. Hey, Tom. There's a trade in your inbox in one of our leagues that you have not looked at. I have two and you're in boxing though. Well, I know, Jacob, I know yours.

Those have only been in there since yesterday. And Ryan, I don't actually know what you're talking about. So you'll have to remind me on that. But damn. Oh, see, Dustin Ross here. Tom, you know, damn well, I've been trying to buy London in Ely Apple for a week. Make a decision already.

I made my decision. We talked. I used it as a talking point on this show. On this program. The decision has been made. Go back. and rewind that. Yeah, I think it's just like it's important.

Now, I think if you're sitting on some assets like a Patrick Mahomes and things like that, you don't have to trade them away just to trade them away. Be smart. Be smart. Be smart. Be smart with that 100%. You guys want to catch up on some. Before we get going on catching back up with the chat, because I have bookmarked quite a few of these.

does anyone have any final statements on rebuilding as a whole as we get started? I feel like we picked it pretty clean. Yeah, I don't know. I feel like we've picked it pretty clean over the last hour. Yeah, we can go back through the chat question, see if anything else comes to mind. But yeah, I feel like I've given everything I have. Okay, and Ryan, I expect you by the end of these questions to send me what deal that is,

again so I can look at it. I feel like it was one that you and I talked about. We might have spoken about it very late at night and then yeah, see, there it is. And then you completely ignored it for, okay, that would make sense then. Not totally on me. All right, we've solved that question.

I know I saw the chat already saying in. Well, no, I think it is totally on you because I knew it was. Not totally on me. Okay. Just saying that totally on me. All right. We have from chasing breakers, how do you handle an aging vet like Tyreek who may still have some elite potential but has struggled and has seen as market shrink? If you can't get a first, do you hold or change the ask?

And I feel like that's a very important question here. How are we viewing Tyreek Hill right now and what do you do with them on a tweener type team? I know what I'm doing. What say you guys? don't all jump out at once Brian I was I was pinging you in DM so that you can see the trade and was only and was only half listening I thought someone okay else would be gone to during that Lucas responding to a bunch of texts asked me if I'm joining blue sky

Oh okay there you go the important things on this year program Let's go to Lucas I mean that that is a tough one I do have several assets like that unfortunately all my assets like that are Our name Travis Etyen But looking at Tyree Kill specifically, he's not really somebody that I'm looking to move right now unless you find that one person who's like, oh, two is back. We're back in business, baby. Things are moving on. I'm going to be extremely selective with him because also I do feel like for a lot of these vets who are in positions where it feels like they're underperforming right now, there's a really good chance over the off season for their situation.

to at least change in terms of perception by others, it doesn't make a lot of sense for you to trade away a vet who's not actually performing this second for diminished returns. You need to be trading them whenever there's at least still that perception that they're going to be doing better or they can perform up to what they have performed in the past. Thomas, you look absolutely disgusted with that answer. The Tyrakeel stuff is going to be,

painful to trade right now. I mean, like, you have to make it, you just have, that's a, that's a talent evaluation call. Like, you either have to decide this is a blip, whatever is going on in this offense right now, they're going to come out of it, or maybe it's his wrist or whatever it is. And eventually we're going to get elite Tyree Kill again,

in which case you hold. Or, you know, if you think this is the beginning of the end for Tyree Kill or something and you'd rather sell off his name value while you can, that's the decision you make. I lean towards the former. but to me that's that's an instance where it's a little bit less about the macro strategy and it's a little bit more about the micro evaluation

well look I'll put it to you like this if you're looking at selling tarik and you're like man I don't want to just take a straight late one for them try it 27 I mean that's that's kind of how I'm looking at a lot of people that don't want to sell their immediate first are a little bit more loose with the later first

and then my next thing is go and find a player who's been hurt who's been who's probably still on one of these contending rosters because he's a good player and someone would have went to acquire him. T. Higgins. I would happily take T. Higgins in a second for Tyreek any day. And I feel like a trade structure like that is still possible.

Because when you see Tyreek with the football, nothing has changed with Tyreek himself. His skills. It's not like the 30, 31 year old receiver who started to, he hasn't A.J. greened off the cliff, right? Like that hasn't happened. And I don't think it will because he's not that kind of receiver. So I think you can still kind of get a guy who is injured, who is sluggish. Now granted Higgins might come back.

Sure. Might be too late. But those are the type of deals. Devontas Smith in a second, right? I feel like that's a completely okay trade structure to go and do because those players are deemed as number twos. They're just okay. and yes, that might be true,

but you're still getting a second round pick, you're still getting a young asset, a player that you can move for more. Most seasons, you can trade Devontas Smith for a first. Most seasons, the base price for T. Higgins is a first. T. Higgins goes out and gets a massive contract

in New England next year when they roll out $160 million over four years, and now he's Drake May's wide receiver one. You're getting more than a first back for T. Higgins. So, again, this is like a short-term lose value now, gain value later situation, I'm all about it. So if you can't get that first now for what you want,

let's look ahead and just kind of change how we're viewing that. What? The last thing I'll send this rebuilding segment, maybe if we're potentially moving on shortly after. We're just good questions. Okay. I just want to make one point on this, because this is another like modern thing where I think as people have become more embracing of pick values and of aggressive rebuilding strategies,

is that the goal of cashing out all of your assets into picks now is not necessarily and in fact should not be to eventually make all of the picks. The picks are just a sort of value. At some point in time, the reason why I want to be hyper aggressive in selling out all of my assets for picks is because that is, that is the fastest way to accrue value into a place where you're ready to contend. Once you hit that place where you're ready to contend, then I don't want to be interested in just accruing infinitely more value like the utility monster. I want to be in a place where I'm actually then selling back some subsection of those picks or young players or whatever it is that I have in my roster, whatever appeals to people,

to then get production back into my lineup and try to actually compete. For me, that rule of thumb is usually when I'm a top three or top, usually when I could be a top three value team in my league after having completed those transactions. And so maybe that takes one year, maybe that takes two years. But like I so often see, and it's happened to me too in leagues, you know, where I've gotten trapped in the cycle, where you make all the picks of year one and you go, well, I'll just see how it goes. And then, oh boy, kind of getting off to a slow start. Well, I guess I got to sell again. And then you make all the picks again. And then, oh, no, it's a slow start again.

Well, I guess I got to sell again. And then I make all. And it's like you end up trapped in this endless cycle of like, well, on keep trade cut, I have the highest value team in the league power rankings. But it's year four and I haven't made the playoffs yet. And it's like, yeah, because you keep continually recycling your sophomores into 26 at 271s. And yes, you will continue to accumulate value that way. But the reason why you accumulate value is so that you have the cash to then bring to the register and buy points eventually

and responsibly. But you have to at some point make that transition. So don't be so attached to, well, I traded for this 271 two years ago. And I want to see, you know, I've been watering my plant. I've named it. Maybe I didn't name this plant, Kyle. I named this plant Petey. And I've won watering it every day and I've watched it grow. Oh my God, I just saw a little flower, right? I was watching, I was watching Jeremiah Smith. He caught a little touchdown. I have a little bud on my 2027 first plant. Oh, uh-oh. You know, Kyle just suffered an injury. I got another butt on my plant. Looks like it's a little bit higher value. Like, that's nice, but you shouldn't be so attached to seeing all those picks come to fruition.

If you buy a pick that's valued, has a late first at the time you buy it, and then you sell it at a 1.5 first value later, and then that pick becomes a two-first player for someone else. Great for them. It's a lot of zero-sum game. You still win. You still did the job that you're supposed to do.

Go try to win some money eventually. Yeah, at some point you have to win. It is okay to win. It is okay to have a veteran on your roster. This, that whole thing really comes with the like people who are afraid, to just have a running back on their team. Like there's nothing that pisses me off more in a league.

When I see a team that has like Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jamar Chase, they've got hot quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud and Kyler Murray. They've got the all Twitter team, right? Jaden Reed's on there. But they're starting a fullback. Like Carson steals their guy.

And they like refuse to go by Ken Walker, even though they have five draft picks, sitting there able to be used or they refuse to like spend a second on Chuba Hubbard who's the third leading rusher in the league because they're like oh I'll just get the running back value in the egg brother that's why you don't win

it's okay to go and win go spend two seconds on Travis Kelsey in week nine once you realize he's getting 12 targets go win it's okay side rant there but it really I love it because that means they're never going to win in the leagues that I'm in and that's awesome but it drives me

bad shit crazy just go get James Connor bro you're not going to get made fun of you can that's taking zero RB to an extreme like go win please for the love of God go win um please um all right let's I'm sure that I've talked about this in the article but like

the utility monster concept from the philosopher Robert Nozek and it's the idea that like if you're in the philosophy utilitarianism it's the idea that like oh we always want to do was better for the maximum happiest society. And that's like a good heuristic. But if you just continue, if there was like a hypothetical monster

that derived slightly more happiness than anybody else, like in theory we should just feed everything to the utility monster. And the utility monster just gets like more and more utility out of each single thing that we feed it. And it's like at a certain point, this is what your roster becomes. If you become the value monster and you're singularly focused on this alternative goal that you just keep getting more and more and more value, you know, at a certain point,

it doesn't actually help you ever actually win the money. So don't do that. It's sort of like when, you know, when these people accrue all of these picks and they don't want to spend anything, I feel like it's like the Don Draper. That's what the money is for. Like, you know, at a certain point,

you do just spend the two seconds for Travis Kelsey and you try to win money. You can put together such a beast team on just those. I watch Jacob do it constantly, where he's got contenders, but he still got three first, four firsts in the bank. And the day of the trade deadline, he just goes out and lands himself like a Jamar Chase

because he, oh my God, he sent all those picks away and he sent it for one player. Yeah, well, it's one of the best players in the league. Like, that's definitely a way to not just go all in,

but he still has Jamar Chase for the next, however long he wants them until he retires. So, yeah, please, like spend your picks and make some money. We've seen it in the home league, right? A couple teams have done that. drives us nuts. A good rebuilder question. Rebuilder theory question.

I started hot getting a lot out of production out of Charbonnet, Mason, and Rice, but I'm now basically middle of the pack in points for and max points for, which determines a draft order. Should I aggressively try to get points off my roster? For example, Naji Brian Robinson, to climb higher in draft order,

or is the difference between, say, third overall and sixth overall not worth it? It's worth it. go get third overall because trying to trade for third overall in the draft is going to cost you more than getting some of those points off your roster and getting value for them. Don't drop them, obviously. I'm sure that would like cause a stir in your league. But like if you can trade nausea for a second and like a third or even just a second

and it helps you achieve your goal, go and do that. It's good that you've realized why you're in the situation that you're in. that's dope. That's half the problem. But yeah, try everything you can to get the lower pick because let me tell you, it's going to cost you come draft day. If it's Travis Hunter who's sitting there at third and you get, I don't know, Luther Burden who's not even the wide receiver won on his own team and you're staring at him

at six and now you want to move up, everyone knows that there's a problem with six. Less people want six. They all want three. So yes, it's going to cost you less to get three on draft night if you already have that pick. Trust me. It's it's beneficial to you. Get those points off your roster. Anyone else?

No? Yeah, that's. And I saw your face, Lucas, when I said that about burden. Let's just be honest. He's been a let down just how it is. You think I'm a burden stand? No, no, I'm just saying. I saw your face.

I saw your face. So I thought maybe you're like, I don't know. You don't watch college football. I listen. I thought you were sure. All yeah. No, no, no. absolutely not.

I've been an anti this draft class for like as long as I can remember. And then Genty showed up. And now I'm like kind of into him and then everyone else I could do without. It is it is Genty just wanted to your three to three to one Jacob. Okay. All right. All the tribe is spoken. Why?

Was this a question? I thought it was pronounced Jeenty, but I've been outvoted. No, it's Gentie. Right? It's Ashton Genty. That's what I thought. I say Genty, but. This is going to be this is going to be the new.

a chain and a chan thing like we're going to find out like week two of a year what his name however is pronounced he's going to tell us that we're pronouncing it wrong like it's correct we're going to argue gentie or gente the entire off season and he's going to be like actually it's gianti exactly yeah also thomas saying and then gentie showed up acting like he hasn't been good for now too maybe it's like jeremy i'm sorry i'm sorry but this ncdbola 25 run that he's on yeah, not expected, dude. Yeah, he's been there. But, like, Bejohn was a guy that was, like, touted in high school.

All right? There's a lot of retconning on the Ashton Jentee, Jeanty stuff. Like, I was in C2C and Devi drafts where, like, in the supplemental Devi drafts, where, like, you could either draft incoming rookies or you could draft. Otherwise, like, he was going in, like, the one to turn. like in in dev in c2c drafts he was going and it's like a late one early two like people are not being honest about how he was perceived part of this season there's just a lot of people who are who are retconning themselves into having better takes and they actually have yeah exactly

like if you're in that community i get it but i can tell you i did not think of this dude before this year like he wasn't a bejean level prospect so let's just pump the brakes on that right away. But he is having like a Barry Sanders-esque season for sure. It's hilarious video game numbers, but let's just be real. It is what it is. I mean, he might be a better he might be better than those guys.

He might be. But yeah, people are like acting as though he was thought of higher than he was for sure. Correct. So Dynasty Dumpster Fire has a question that I feel like we need to hit pretty quickly because this is a clear decision for me, but in a 12-team Superflex PPR, would you trade

Brooks for a mid-second in Bigsby? My answer is no. I'm not, I let you guys talk me into Brooks, by the way, three weeks ago on the running back. I'm so sorry. I, I do apologize.

I was on the right side of history and I pulled up. Brian Scott, we're on the right side of it. And I completely changed both of your minds. Yeah, I feel bad about that one. Yeah, I'm still not trading them in this regard,

though. Like, I'm not panic selling Jonathan Brooks. Oh, yeah, there's no, there's no reason to sell him for what was just on that question,

though. Yeah. that's that's a hard no if you have no jacob there's not let's relax like bigsby is not bigsby is not it like he's in a committee let's be real now you're just taking like a worse prospect running back who has flashed a little bit to like another player who is like a better prospect and is still going to be in a committee so let's i'm not i'm not panic selling uh jonathan brooks uh jacob can i'm not My answer is no. I wouldn't know for that because he has.

I would sell. It's higher value? I would sell, but Brooks or higher value right now. Really rapid fire just because we haven't actually talked about the Chuba extension or at least not when I've been on this. No, I guess we haven't missed a show recently. Rapid fire. One word answer. Jonathan Brooks or Tyrone Tracy and Dynasty?

Tyrone Tracy. I haven't ranked higher. Yeah, Tracy. I'll take Tracy Jonathan Brooks or Bucky Irving in Dynasty I'll take Brooks

I think I would go Brooks as well Jonathan Brooks or Trey Benson in Dynasty Brooks I'll take Benson for now but you want to know what my nightmare scenario

is for Benson Connor fucking resigns like is this going to be the same scenario but for now I might but you're not going to resign for four more years

this one's tight for me and to answer your question, Sean, no. If you've been following my tweets, which I mean, I don't know how you'd see them. I tweet 300 times per Sunday, but I have noted basically every time that Trey Benson has looked not like shit. And that's been increasing. So the stonks, like the, it's like the stonks up 1% face meme. That's the Trey Benson shares right now. Legitimately, I do think that he, first of all, the team has actually given him non-garbage time touches now for three straight weeks, and he's looked good on them. So, um,

Connor's also been great. So they might decide to still bring Connor back, but I don't think that they're looking at Benson as like a guy they're terrified to give the ball to in 2025. I thought they might have been a month ago. He wants to know, can you explain Brooks over Bucky? Yeah, Bucky still has a Rashad White problem.

And Rashad White's not going anywhere. So. Yeah, but there's Chuba. I mean, it's true, but I don't. I'm going somewhere more likely that Chuba is going somewhere. I don't. I think it's the upside problem. Like if you're looking at the two in a vacuum,

I think that Brooks coming out, he was still the better prospect. We haven't seen anything to say he's not going to be a good player in the NFL so far. And Bucky Irving's been way better than his draft capital suggested. I still think that his upside is limited, though, in what his role can be in the NFL. He did have a lot of, you know, sealing type flaws as a prospect, which is why he started falling down so much, especially from like the athletic standpoint. He's been a really good runner. He's been a really good running back.

So good for him on making the most of his opportunity. But I'm still wanting to take that high upside shot that Jonathan Brooks has. And then also like especially for like the cost too. Yeah, I'm still definitely rolling with Brooks. I'm probably inclined to agree there. Like you still do have size limitations. You have potential path protection limitations. And when you combine those, it's, it's hard to envision.

him playing a ton of third downs and it's hard to envision of getting a bunch of goal and opportunities and that's probably a glass ceiling for him so do you want to know what it is for me i think it's way easier to even break down than that uh this is a guy that we're wondering like why we would take jonathan brooks over sean tucker had one game and i saw on twitter was on the right side of history drove me nuts yeah this drove me nuts it's like oh sean tucker's there sell bucky for any second that you can get and then Sean Tucker's non-existent already and now we're saying why would you take them over Brooks that is how fragile Bucky Irving is as an asset so and

they signed they signed Chuba and it's like well now I don't I still don't want to sell low on Brooks so if that doesn't signal enough about what the community in general. Now maybe you have like a preference strongly one way or the other. But for me, that fragility with Bucky Irving is enough for me to say like, okay, I know what I have here. And then on Dynasty Market Report, on Dynasty Points Market Report, Andy and I went and looked during the peak height of like Bucky is now taking Rashad White's job. Then Rashad White came back and Rashad White is still the guy. We went and checked the crowdsourcing sites, the keep trade cuts, the Dynasty Daddy's, Dynasty Data Lab.

Rashad White, still more expensive. Rashad White, still more valuable. Yeah, I was just as surprised as you were, but when we went and looked, we did an entire, basically did two episodes on that backfield tracking it over the course of a few weeks. And yeah, the value didn't shift enough one or over the other for a long enough period of time for me to be like, Bucky has substantial more value than the other. So that to me, like, that's the easy answer for me.

Now, maybe that changes down the road. but for now, that's the way it's going to be. If you want to get out because of the knee injury and you think maybe it's worse than it was and they're slow playing it, and maybe it's not just actually sure. If you want a narrative your way through it, fine. But Brooks right now, I do believe,

still has more value going in the next year than Bucky will. And it's also been a perfect set of scenarios. No receivers. They've got to dump it off a little bit more. That's the KDoughton theory too as well. And Bucky's going to smash at the end of the year. Their schedule is phenomenal. It's great.

I get it. But I think it's going to be a little bit of inflated value in my opinion. All right. We're at the two hour mark here. We're almost at the two hour mark. We have a couple of quick questions, I think.

Revolt, we're not going to get to that one. Sorry, any questions that we don't get to and you want answered, as soon as the show is over, drop them in the comment section, and I will answer it. I did that last week. A bunch of people ended up getting their questions answered.

Um, that way, that's definitely possible. So sorry if we don't get to it. We do try to get to as much as we can. These theory episodes are jam-packed full of a lot of information. So it is hard to tie in trades, but we do our best. Nick wants to know, boys, waddle or downs straight up in a rebuilder. I have a strong answer for this one, but I would like to hear everyone else's opinion. All right.

I'll go first. Um, I feel, feel like I might. get shotted down on this one um it it's still waddle for me so okay so as much as i've talked up josh downs and his role has legitimately been great even with the production not being there the last couple weeks i believe me i was losing my goddamn mind when he when he dropped that pass at the goal line this past week he is just seeing that 30 percent target share with joe flacko every single week it's awesome that's great they will not play Josh Downs on the outside.

They're not going to do it. He is always going to be typecast as a slot only player. And outside of like a couple. Let's not say always. Are we giving Shane Syke and job security? Okay, okay. Well, I'll even roll it forward though, too. Like I think we very often will see,

I wish I had a good example on hand, but we will see guys get typecast as Rokies as sophomore. and even with subsequent coaching staffs, it's pretty rare that you see a guy's role shift that dramatically from. He's literally like an 89% slot snap rate player to he's actually going to play on the outside, right? That's also, why won't a team use player X this way? And it's fair for the Colts because they have an abundance of, I mean, they don't have any stars as outside wide receivers,

but they do have three clearly capable NFL starting wide receivers on the outside. So it's a little hard to, it's not like there's some total dud that's out there running routes that, you know, Josh Jones should obviously usurp, you know, Van Jefferson. Yeah. No, you make a great point there. With Downs, there's kind of this falling anvil hanging over his value, which is what are the cults going to do at the quarterback position, which we've talked about plenty on this show.

Don't get Jacob started. I see the look on his face. And I will not. going to keep talking so that Jacob can't interrupt me about the cult's quarterback position. But what's going to happen is Joe Flacco, obviously not like the best quarterback ever. He's been pretty good for the fantasy value of those receivers, just objectively, with the amount of catchable targets that he produces for that offense, right? I'd say even if they draft a rookie or whatever, take a high-upside flyer on some other player

or whatever Jacob's dream scenario is. It's 70% like, yeah, I know, 70% likely not going to be as good of a quarterback situation in the immediate future for Josh Towns, right? For Waddle, yes, I don't think he's in a good situation, I guess, to produce right now. We have seen Jalen Wallow produce as a top 12 wide receiver, as much as Tom is going to want to say that it came on like three games or whatever, stretched out. He usually does.

He usually does. All the per route stuff throughout his entire career before this season and everything kind of got really weird in Miami has been awesome. I have a high degree of confidence that Jalen Waddle is a very good and very capable player can produce in a variety of other situations he might find himself in down the road, which is what we ultimately care about on a rebuilder. We have a longer time horizon. So, yeah, a long way of saying I feel way better about

Jalen Waddle's value retention two years in a slightly unknown situation than I do a Josh Downs. I just want to point out because I feel like that was a little bit of a shot there that even though I'm taking Jalen Waddle, Jalen Waddle has more games outside of the outside of being a wide receiver 3 than he does as a wide receiver 2. So yeah, just saying he does score in bunches. However, I don't know if Downs has a 40 point week up. side and they both have the possibility of scoring 10.

So I want the elite even last, I would kill it. I would kill it. Model. I know. I know this year was weird. We thought we were going to get it last night. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah, like 55 yards on the first drive and I was like, it's happening. Everyone, like everyone had sent out the same tweet of he already has the most yards he's had all season in a game and on the first drive. Like you were so back. But now it is so over. you know like I was saying after all the talk in the discord if the fantasy points dynasty discord about Waddle over the last week Lucas putting him as a by low I was like I'm gonna just be

wearing egg on my face after this week having people talk copious amounts of crap to me because he just put up 180 yards and two turns out not so much so that's just the Jalen Waddled experience I'll still take that because the upside is greater in my opinion. Also, greater chance of a situation change for him that leads to more. We did talk about that last week as well. Last question before we do player picks, I feel like this one is kind of important. How do you value Alvin Kamara?

Contract is insane right now. We did get a question earlier. Like, what would you trade them for in a one QB league? So a couple of times we valued Kamara. It is tough because running backs do all. always suck and we know he's got a job and a role and it's not changing at the beginning of the year I said he would finish like top three and not two and you know he's looking pretty good how do you value him because you're not trading him away because chances are you have him on a contender

so if this is a how do you buy like how do you value a player like him um not you value him for the what the production he's giving you right now you know because nothing beyond that is but not send one very happy sending any two um you wouldn't send any first forum no but okay okay i know some people would would anybody here send a first forum in any situation is there any situation you can see where you would do it you're you're undefeated right and like you're like you're undefeated what do i need like exactly i mean that's a good point too i think his value just is what it is if you have him he's rotting on your roster I mean, this is a good point, right?

We've been talking about all this trade deadline stuff, but like it's the bell curve of buying at the trade deadline. If you have the, if you already have the elite team, you don't need to be buying. If your team isn't actually that good, you shouldn't be buying. It's only like really that,

that middle quadrant on the bell curve that should be making aggressive buys. And in that case, I don't think you can afford to give a one for Alvin Camara. That's fair. one more so there you go we're not value him highly I'll put it to you that way if he's on your roster he's staying on your roster

last question because I kind of want to tilt Jacob with this with my opinion Sean just says was just offered CJ Stroud for my Kyler Murray in a late 25 second I smash this correct I don't think so I do not think so but I'm gonna get disagreed with here by at least one person

are you sending CJ Stroud are you sending Kyler and a late second for CJ Stroud I mean Yes, but I would, like, yes, in a vacuum, but in the, like today, after just watching the games we watch on Sunday, someone was offering me that out of the blue. I'm definitely countering without the second, and I'm pretty sure I'm going to get it. Yeah, I'm just not doing it because I don't think you have a reason to. If you have a late second, you're winning, right?

And week to week, I'm sorry, but Kyler and Strouder have the equal opportunity to score the same. Kyler's been good. Yeah, he's got a couple, he's got a few dud games. they don't really know he he missed Trey McBride like wide open by 50 yards in the end zone somehow even though the end zones are smaller in the NFL I feel like he would have missed him on a CFL end zone

um you like he has his flaws I get it but he C.J. Stroud is what he is he needs Nico like let's Nico makes the offense work we've seen enough now like we know what the offense is slowix taking a step back they're run heavy

we've seen it he's still a pile of on quarterback. We talked about it before the season. What is Kyler done to make you go, no, I'm going to move him for someone who has a lower floor and arguably the same ceiling. To me, that's a bad trade.

You don't need to do it. You're doing it to say, like, yeah, I got the value. I like the points. And I like holding my pick that I can use for something else. You're just burning assets at that point to gain value. That's a no from me. That's a hard no for me. I thought I'd get more of a fight out of Jacob on that, but that's okay. I maybe wanted one extra clip where he goes off, but for two hours in,

maybe he's tired. I'm smelling blood in the water at this. Like, if people are going to just offer me out of the blue trades in which they clearly want my player who just had his best game of the season and they're sending their player who just lost an embarrassing game in prime time, like I'm, I'm countering with you give me C.J. Stroud and a second for my Tyler. Yeah. And then we're going to see what you say to that.

that, but I'm not, I'm definitely not accepting anything beyond straight up because we live, you know, we live in the context of all that we've been. I knew you were loading that up. Oh, my God. Yeah, that was an obvious one for Jacob. But no, I just think that's the way it is. All right. We see your questions. We're not going to get to them.

As soon as the stream ends, leave the comment. Hopefully you leave a comment anyway. It helps us goes up all the algorithms. It helps us do really well. The Dynasty live streams have been killing it over the last two months. You guys are showing up and showing up and showing out. And you guys have been showing up and showing out in the podcast downloads as well. We love that.

We appreciate it. Dynasty still continues to be the most consumed content across all of the platforms on fantasy points, period. That's because of you guys. We love you. We've got player picks to do. And then we're getting out of here. So because there's two hours, we'll take a fourth break. We come back, player picks, final thoughts, and we take it home.

More on the other side. All right, guys, I'm not in last. Jacob's still in first, but I am not in last. Had a hell of a week. The Herbert, Juan Jennings really came through for me. So shout out those guys. Love you. If you're new here, yes, we're a dynasty show, but we like to have bragging rights.

We need something to talk about. I'm better than you, et cetera. Jacob's been running away with this for like seven weeks, but we're making a comeback here slowly, not really making a comeback, but he's not closer to doubling me now as I am to catching up to him. So we've crossed that threshold.

I can delete that off the show sheet and get that ugly yellow highlight out of here. What we do is we take a quarterback outside of the top 15, a running back outside of the top 15, a wide receiver outside of the top 30 and a tight end outside of the top 12. Yes, and we take their points. in PPR formats for the projected that's out of weekly projections,

take their points, calculated at the end of the year, the winner of the contest, gets to pick the drinks to the other hosts have on the live draft show that we do. We do a dynasty live NFL rookie draft reaction show after the Brett Whitefield and Scott Barrett's and Joe Dolans get off the air. We take over and do another two to three hours sometimes

diving into all. That's the show. where we got, look, we were the earliest on Tyrone Tracy, Garandos, all these, the Jatavian Sanders, Theo Johnson's, all the players that people are reacting to now and buying. That show, we were already breaking it down for you. You're going to want to tap into that. And you're going to want to tap in to see what Jacob makes us all drink.

Last year it was picklebacks. I'm legitimately terrified for this year. I'm scared. We're going to be cucking up some crazy shit. Yeah, I'm afraid. I'm very afraid. With that being said, I'm no longer last. So I'm not going first.

So going first is Ryan. You have 426.04 points. You're up first. What do you got? Yeah, really, really tried to manifest and make it happen with Amari Cooper to play last week. It did not happen. Might get out of that bet on the on the games minimum from Jacob. It doesn't even.

You know, you always know it's going well. Try to get out of the bet on the games minimum. Hey, minimum six games played. He's at one. We got what? I have seven, eight weeks left in the season. Like, I have two bets. One of my buddies.

One is on Spears versus Pollard, and the other one was on Nico versus Debo. And if all the game minimums hit, like, we're each winning one of those bets by an absolute mile. But it's going to be a sweat to the end on the game minimums for three of those four players. Yeah, for sure. You always got to put those in and give yourself that little out with that sweat. That just makes the best one. I put back to take Dajet Spears to like the rest top.

Anyway, my player picks. We're going with Matt Stafford this week against my Patriots. Aaron Jones against the Titans. For some reason, there was like people think Aaron Jones is like hurt and not going to play. He played the last two drives guys. I know. The card off the field was so deceiving. Yeah.

Yeah. Apparently it was, he came back in, but then he went back out. So he is not fun. Oh, okay. I missed that one,

I guess. So I'm totally wrong. Yeah, I don't, whatever. Well, he's on the sheet now, baby.

Yeah, he's on the sheet. He's playing. Come on. He said as much, I think. Jacobi Myers, and then Hunter Henry

to round it out there. Shout out Jacobi Myers. He's been really good. Trade it for him in the home league to put him in my flex. He is producing. So then next- Aaron Jones came in, or went out, came in, stayed in.

Dalton Kincaid was the one who went out, came back, went back out. Right. Okay. I let you gaslight me on that. Like, I wrote that in the Everything report. I, like, everything had, I was looking at specific play-by-play stuff. I was trying to make sure I got the Aaron Jones thing, right? And you just completely, like, horrified you.

just misheard me yeah he's still gaslighting you Ryan I'm up next look at girl boss you and gate keep you yeah that well that that's just every episode of this podcast is that I'm getting girl Boston gate kept I am in third I've moved out of the basement but I am still only in third with 432.52 points did have a strong week next week do not feel great about my picks this week it's kind kind of a weird week 11 for players in this range. And Lucas got in here first and took my quarterback and running back and receiver. So hopefully they all bomb for you, Lucas, hopefully.

Instead, I'm taking Gino Smith for San Francisco, their pass rate. And I mean, San Francisco is very much beatable in the air right now. So I'm going to take Gino and hope that D.K. is back and just bosses. them terribly. I'm gonna go Tony Pollard versus Minnesota did have a little bit lower workload last week that Spears was healthy but he's been a boss all year.

I'm gonna play Tony Pollard versus Minnesota. I'll take Jameson Williams versus Jacksonville. I feel like I might take a zero, but it's against Jacksonville and Detroit might. They just might want to come out and make an example of Jacksonville after the game.

I want to make an example of those fucking losers. they might want to come out and just light it up with Jared Goff's five picks and just say like, no, don't worry, we got it. If that's the case, I think a couple design plays is enough to get Jameson Williams over the hump here and have a 30 burger. I need it. And then I'm going to go with an old favorite from the home league, Will Disley, on the Chargers. I thought it was Hayden Hurst. Big Montana.

I thought it was going to be Hayden Hurst. turns out it's Will Disley. Let's not drop that touchdown this week. We got the drop last week, but that man is getting targets. Don't ask me why. He is. Top three and first read target share this past week, by the way. Yeah.

He's 14 routes, literally. He's getting those targets. Let's get him the red zone looks. Harbaugh likes him. Herbert likes them. We are rolling with an old favorite in Will Disley. next up is Lucas at 442.5, 6 points. Heck yeah, Thomas is still behind me.

I think he's been behind me since week two, so I just want to continue to point that out, as well as finishing behind me last season. I can't have anything over Jacob. I won't even try to. But, you know, I can put Thomas in this place for a little bit. So this week I'm going with, but you know, I love the amount of,

the amount of shit that Lucas and Thomas, talk for being so far out of it. Like, I just haven't bothered all year. Because why would I, what could I possibly say to talk shit about these scores? Like, it's very clear that I have no chance. Why are we even pretending? We play for pride on this podcast, Ryan. I know you're the new going here.

Wait, we play for pride. We try to help our audience make good starts and sits, because we are the people that they depend on two hours and eight minutes to do a dynasty podcast to get 0.6 points better of marginal projection. Some of us here sitting in our apartment at 847 screaming like a lunatic are willing to get a noise complaint to put you in your place because I respect our listeners. I guess not all of us feel the same way. Maybe that's why I'm beating your ass by 200 points up and down the block like a pinata.

He said what he said, and he didn't stutter. He said it with his whole chest. Lucas get your shitty picks in I don't even know I was supposed to follow that one up holy cow well this week very quickly going with James Winston against New Orleans which has been terrible the last couple of weeks David Montgomery against Jacksonville because Jacksonville can't stop any sort of rushing attack Marquez Valde Scantling

against Cleveland because Cleveland's one of the worst teams at defending the deep pass and I just need really one of those to hit and be in for a good day. Then Mr. John Newsmith against Las Vegas because while Las Vegas has a great titan, it's not helping them in practice learn how it cover tight in.

All right. And from Mr. Moneybags himself, Jaynevin our listeners. 6443.56 points. You've been valuing our listeners more than anyone else on this show all year. I love that naturally, by the way, was the sassy point. And then I just, like, screamed at Ryan for three full minutes doing a bit.

So, but naturally, it was the tone setter. It was the tone setter is what it was. You got to set the tone. I'm taking Aaron Rogers. He is playing the Colts who have been kind of better of late defensively. You just want to hate watch the Colts? I do. I do want to hate watch the Colts.

But also there's like four viable starting quarterback so it's at the top 15. And you guys took the three that I would have taken ahead of Rogers. So I valued the listener so much that I went into the document last. And Aaron Rogers is the best available. Then I took JK Davins. He did lose some carries to Gus Edwards last week. But he gets an extraordinary matchup against Cincinnati Bengals, Siv of a run defense, and the complete scam that is Luan Rumo's undeserved reputation as a defensive genius.

I'm taking Pop Douglas, who gets a matchup against the Rams, where they've not been a very good secondary. And I expect if New England can block even a little bit against the Rams defensive line, I expect the Pop Douglas is going to have a lot of success working against that secondary. And then tight ends the shit show. But I took the fur dog. I think that that's probably the only thing that Cooper Rush can do is maybe get out some wobblers to the fur dog this week. and I expect they'll probably have to wreck up a lot of pass attempts against their will. So, you know, if you want, if you want Ryan's non-carrying picks, go with those.

I don't know where the idea came from that I don't care about the picks. I'm just saying, you know, Lucas are incredibly over-coffin and over self-rength. You see when you weren't getting gas-lit before, now you're getting gas-lip. Yeah, now I'm going to gas-lil. Because what was, when you said, oh, I just screamed it, Ryan. It didn't sound like you responded to anything I actually said. It sounded like you were just grandstanding about how you care so much about all of our picks. I don't think that actually had anything to do with what I said right before it.

Have you not caught on to like the entire basis of every rent Jacob has throughout the show? I'm sorry. I'm sorry that you thought that two hours and seven minutes of this podcast you were operating in good faith. Except on you. All of this is your by now. Yeah. Everything happening. and player picks is your fault since last season when you filled in for jacob had a ridiculous week

that put him back into it single-handedly won me last year and then i've been on a theater ever since you he was over 50 points behind and won by i think it was he won by 10 points last season after you had like a 90-point week for him or something and he's got a tear ever since then so everything right now is to bury you to punish you for what you did last season. I think it's because Ryan's selfish. He wasn't doing that for the listeners. He put in such a good performance because he wanted to get a permanent spot co-hosting

the show to get yelled at every Tuesday night. And then... I'm going to go for punishment. What can I say? That was my master's playing. He's mailing it in. He doesn't care anymore. I love this show.

There's really none like it. We are a unique brand here. And I love that for us. truly phenomenal. I love this program. I love this show. Yeah, I love it. I love that everyone else here loves it and continue

spread the love, spread the word. I know the whole thing is, well, I don't want my friends if it's what, they're going to find it eventually. Because this podcast is growing at an insane rate. Be the nice person. Help us out. Remember to go to the Dynasty Points podcast feed as much as you can as

the fancy points. Now feed will be dissolved next year. year get ahead don't miss out be locked in for the dynasty points market report that'll come out friday morning on a dynasty points feed and it will come out sunday morning on the fantasy points now feed uh andy and i will be breaking down more rebuild situations we're going to dive deep into the legal record rebuild that i'm doing and look further into trading for 27 picks and of course do things that pissed us off this week in the community, which has been the banger segment, I should say, of that program. So, stay locked in. We

appreciate all of you. Rebuild responsibly. We'll see you next week for the always controversial trade deadline show. That one surely no one will have a strong opinion about in the comment section. Can't wait for that. That would never happen. And of course, remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose. And your best days. Well, goddamn. They're always been tilting.

Love this show. Good night, everybody.