Fantasy Football Daily - IDP Corner: 2022 NFL Draft Review

Episode Date: May 4, 2022

Justin Varnes (@downwithIDP) and Tom Simons recap the 2022 NFL Draft for IDP leagues, highlighting their favorite defensive picks and discussing rookie landing spots. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to another edition of the IDP Corner. This is the first one for the 2022 season. My name is Justin Varns. I'm one of the IDP analysts over at Fantasy Points. com. You can follow me on Twitter at Down with IDP. I am joined as always by my other IDP cohort, Mr.

Tom Simons. Thomas, how you doing? I'm hanging in there, Justin. I can't believe we're at it again. I know. This is we're we had a couple months off. I try to get back into the swing of things. We've got a bunch of draft stuff to cover. We're going to talk about rookies, redraft and dynasty. We're also going to talk about the veterans who might have been impacted, both. whether it be good or bad in either direction. So we're going to go ahead and dive in. One of the things that Thomas and I are forever hammering away at is how infrequent it is that a rookie in IDP ends up being a top 10 or top even 25 option. And we talk about this every year.

And we'll talk about a little historical information. But let's just focus on 2021 as a snap. shot. And it's obviously just a snapshot. It was a, you know, every single draft has its own unique thumbprint on how many dbs get drafted, how many, how many linebackers get drafted, et cetera. So if we just look at the numbers, there were 126 IDPs drafted last, last year. Of those, we had 16 drafted in the first round, 14 in the second. And then I group rounds three through seven in one big group just because of how impact works. We had 96 between those three.

Of those first rounders, seven of them were defensive line or edge. Four of them were linebackers. Five of them were defensive backs. That's all in the first round. So it gives us 16 IDPs in the first round. Of those 16 IDPs, only one ended up in the top 10 in any category. And that was Micah Parsons. and he's obviously quite the unicorn in particular for all of the big plays he was able to pull together.

Outside of that, we had two top, we had two edge rushers taken in the first round. We had seven taken total in the first round. Only two of them registered on the fantasy radar. That was Greg Rousseau, who was about a, you know, depending on your scoring, was a low-end DL-2, more likely a DL-3. and Jalen Phillips was the DL3, maybe slipped into DL4 territory. Now, both of these are rookie first round picks. The only other linebacker to make a dent in the IDP landscape was Nick Bolton, and it took him a while to get going, but he finished strong.

He finishes basically an LB3 in most leagues. And only one defensive back taken in the draft. This is five defensive backs taken in the first round. six defensive backs taking in round two. So that's 11 defensive backs in the first two rounds and only one registered for ID. IDP. And that was cornerback A.J. Terrell out in Atlanta. So we're going to talk a lot about these rookies and their hopeful future.

And obviously, somebody's racking up fantasy production and they got drafted at some year. So it's not like we're throwing all these people away. But do not fall into the hype that these guys who are just drafted. Don't start putting them up your boards. Come redraft time and think that they're going to have a major impact. It really only happens every blue moon. Yeah, you know, it's amazing how you were bringing up these numbers

and we're talking about how these guys are, you know, you fall into the trap of, oh, this guy's a stud. He's going to be a starter and he's going to do this and that and the other thing. And then, you know, you get into the preseason, you get into training camp, you get into preseason. And then before the season starts, your stud starter is lucky to be second or third on the depth chart. You're wondering, what happened?

What was all the hype that led up to this? And that's pretty much what it is. It's hype. And you have to take it with a grain of salt, first of all. You have to understand that these guys are coming into the league and they're young. They're fresh out of college. They have to earn their stripes. They have to earn the respect of the players on the team, let alone get into game action

and start playing, you know, well enough to be fantasy producers for us. Now, we're fantasy options. We're people who go in there and we don't have any ties to these players. We don't have any ties to veterans or rookies. And this is something we'll talk about as we go along over the months here, is that we do this as a, you know, a fantasy option for us. And the decision making we make do not impact our professional lives. I mean, I can sit here and tell you that, oh, Trayvon Walker is going to be the best defensive end out of the drop this year. And then two weeks later, he's like the worst. And I'm still here doing my job. Now, if I was in the NFL and I drafted Trayvon Walker and he turned out to be a bus

within a year or two, I'd be gone. Yeah. And as we go through this, we're going to obviously we're going to talk mainly about how it's going to, you know, what we think will happen. over the next several years in terms of dynasty stashes. But I know all that doom and gloom about how it's rare for one to have an impact. We will absolutely talk about the handful of people we think at each defensive position, either have a chance to be impactful now or our sleepers in terms of just a few little things happening that will twist it in the right direction. You know, you had mentioned Micah Parsons and Nick Bolton as the,

the two top studs last year, you know, and you look at, at players like, you know, Javan Holland from Miami, and, and you look at somebody like Jammin Davis. And these guys came in with, you know, big chips on their shoulder and, and projected as being very productive. And yet while they were productive,

they were nowhere near what Parsons and Bolton did. And it was very few that attained that level. So you're totally. correct and that you have to you have to curb your enthusiasm when it comes to these players and you have to understand that if you're looking for a redraft option, most of these guys are not going to do anything for you this year. And the only way that some of them even get on the field is if there's an injury or, you know, somebody gets traded or somebody gets cut. So unless that happens, you know, temper your expectations and go into this knowing that there are solid quality players

and we may be able to help you with dynasty players down the road. But if you're looking for an immediate impact this year, there's only a handful. Speaking of those handfuls, I'm going to kind of lead our discussion in the rookies that have been drafted. And the handful, I think, that do have a chance to break into the top 25. And then after that, we're going to move into a segment where Thomas is going to look at the veterans. So we're going to kind of break it up into rookies and veterans. And then we'll come back at the end to talk about how there are some sleepers and some busts out of this draft that we kind of are having our eye on. So I've broken a couple of them down into the three main defensive categories, DL slash Edge, linebacker and defensive back.

The two for defensive linemen, these are the two most obvious picks, and they are obvious for a reason. And that's Aidan Hutchinson and Trayvon Walker. about the difference between the two. Hutchinson, obviously, he was drafted second. There was a lot of discussion in Jacksonville as to whether they should take Trayvon Walker or Aidan Hutchinson. We're going to start with Hutchinson. Hutchinson, I think, has a higher floor than Trayvon Walker.

Hutchinson is already polished. He has so many things together as an NFL player. He not only did he have stellar college production, he's scheme versatile. He's also in terms of football IQ, in terms of, kind of elite level of being prepared, of paying attention to technique. He pretty much checks all the boxes. And he landed on a team in Detroit where he should get a lot of playing time. His competition mainly is going to be Charles Harris and Michael Brockers.

Now, Harris, speaking of former first rounders that flamed out and now all of a sudden our fantasy relevant again, Charles Harris came back. He was almost a comeback player of the year. He had a great season for Detroit last year, but that's just one season, and he certainly had an up and down career. So it'll mainly be between Charles Harris and Michael Brockers, both who are capable NFL linemen that he's going to have to work in between. Now, I think he's going to do that. Is he going to play a thousand snaps? Highly unlikely.

But he does have a good chance to be a solid player. One other thing I want to say, and this is common, is with defensive. of linemen and edges, sometimes it takes them even, you know, even like great players, like DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa when they first, when they first came into the league, they were impactful their first season, but it still took even them, you know, a handful of weeks just to get the flow of the NFL. But I do like Hutchinson. I think he's somebody that it's going to be hard to keep him off the field and he has a great landing spot in Detroit. Now, for the next one, Trayvon Walker, I think he's got the bigger upside.

He's not quite the polished player, but physically as an athlete, I think, you know, he's got Hayden Hutchinson by a couple of links. He's bigger. He's faster. He has a noticeable advantage at his wingspan, but he just is not, he doesn't kind of check all the boxes the way that Hutchinson does. His advantage is going to be where he landed in the draft. he landed with Jacksonville.

They're clearly trying to rebuild this thing, and they will likely give Trouin Walker a lot of snaps. His competition is going to be K. Levan Chase on, who so far has not been the Edd Rush where they wanted to be, and Arden Key, if he can leapfrog both of those and get a good amount of snaps across from Josh Allen, who Josh Allen's a great example of everything we've been talking about. Now Josh Allen is a stud.

He was a major impact in fantasy last year. The year he was drafted, not so much. That didn't make him a bust. This is the sort of thing that you should expect out of your edge rushers. And I think Trayvon Walker has a, it's more of a long shot, I think, than Hutchinson. Excuse me, but if he puts it all together quickly, he would be the other edge rusher I'd be looking at. You know, you mentioned these two guys. And with Walker, he can play right defensive end and he can also play a strong side linebacker,

which is what Chaseon is going to be playing. So he could be, you know, when Chaseon comes on the field, they may not remove Walker. They just may move him to a three-point stance. And that's the benefit of what you have in Walker is that he could see a little more snaps than what you might think because of, oh, well, he's going to be splitting time with Chaseon. Well, not necessarily. He'll be splitting time with him mostly at Strongside linebacker.

But when he goes, when Chaseon comes on the field, Walker could go into a defensive end mode and be an edge rusher from that point of view, and then you have two of them coming at you. Now, with Hutchinson, you had mentioned Walker, I mean, Brockers and Harris as being the competitive competition. They may move Brockers inside to defensive tackle, which is where he played some with the Rams when he was with the Rams. And I'll mention this in the veteran part of things

as to who this might affect the most on Detroit. But Hutchinson could be a starter, and I wouldn't be surprised if Harris is a, starter as well and Brockers. So all three of them could hit the field. Yeah, I think gone are the days that you have these traditional like, well, we've got two defensive ends and two defensive tackles. And so we have four starters and you have to break through as to as to be one of those starters to be fantasy relevant. That's not true at all. There's lots of packages, NASCAR packages, you name it, where they're going to try and get three defensive ends on the field at the same time.

And depending on the defensive scheme, how often are they running that? Some people run that on a high level, a high percentage. Some people don't do that. Some teams rotate their defensive ends like crazy, like Buffalo rotates their defensive ends and their defensive tackles like crazy. Some teams put more defensive ends on the field and leave them on there. They get higher snap counts across the board. So, yeah, I totally agree. And the same thing obviously could happen for Walker.

Just because Chase on and Arden Key are there doesn't mean that we won't see plenty of times where Walker either Chase on or Key are on the field across from Allen. And there will be snaps where you will see all four of them on the field at once. Remember that we're starting to see a growing presence of these, you know, there's different names for them. Bearfront is one of the names for them. but they all have their slight little variations, but these five two fronts, you know. Yeah. So the nuances that each one of them will give them Leo's and,

and this, the list goes on and on and on. Yeah. So how these teams decide to deploy these, all of these defensive linemen, this is going to be crucial because one defensive coordinator could see these three or four defensive ends with one of them being a rookie and decide that that rookie is going to basically be a backup to a particular person for the majority of the year.

Another defensive coordinator may look at these guys and say, look, I've got about four or five different packages I'm going to send out, depending on the play call, depending on the personnel, that will involve three or four of these guys. That's what we don't know yet. That's what we're hoping to see in the preseason. But in terms of talent, in terms of not having, you know, having too many of these guys on, you know, so many of the defensive ends we talked about last year that we were worried about not being able to break through. This is, this is wise because we saw so many people in front of

them. For both of these younger players here, they really don't have that many steps to get in front of before all of a sudden they're logging in seven, 800, maybe 900 snaps their rookie season, and that's when they will become fantasy relevant, a la Greg Rousseau. Let's move on to linebackers here. I feel less confident about these linebackers than I do about the edge rushes. This was just a, man, this was a brutal draft for linebackers. Think about how many great linebackers were in last year's draft, and only one of them did anything. You know, even, you know, all these, you know, Zaven Collins, all the talk about Zavon

Collins and taken over for Jordan Hicks, and he was a non-factor. So to me, if we compare last year's draft to this year's draft, I'm less optimistic this year. I don't see a Micah Parsons, right? That's putting it mildly. Yeah. But I'll give you one in particular that sticks out to me. And that's Quay Walker out in Green Bay. He had a nice landing spot.

He was drafted 22nd overall. He's got a nice landing spot next to Devonre Campbell. The only one standing in his way is basically Chris Barnes. and I don't think they see Chris Barnes as a big piece of the puzzle. Now, we have yet to see two linebackers be fantasy relevant in Green Bay in years. So I don't think it'll be this year either. But if you're in a draft where you need a redraft option and it's a rookie league, to me, he would be the guy to take.

Excuse me, he would be the guy to take. We're going to talk about some sleepers. There are a few linebackers that I have my eye on, but I wouldn't feel confident drafting them right now. Yeah, I have to totally agree with you on that. And I'll mention the Green Bay situation. And, you know, the fact that you mentioned the Jacksonville Jaguars having youth, that they're going with a youth movement, especially on the defensive line,

you know, with Walker and stuff. But, you know, you also have a linebacker there that is coming in brand new with them as well, correct? Yes. So we've got in terms of Jacksonville, Devin Lloyd is somebody that I'm also interested in looking at. He was drafted high. Now we're going to talk about an issue that he's got that was drafted 43 slots behind him. But Devin Lloyd would be maybe the other guy that I'd be looking at in Jacksonville. But he also's got Foyer-Lua Khan next to him. And he's clearly going to be the main. guy there. Jacksonville has supported more than one linebacker for fantasy. And Lord knows they need help. They, they haven't. I mean, how many inside linebackers had they kicked to the curb over the past three or four years? I mean, it's quite a body count. So I think they like a luca, and if things go well, Devin Lloyd could be the other guy. But both Walker and Lloyd, if they get enough snaps. But we're talking, you know, 800 to a thousand snaps. Even that, I still don't see them

being more than a, you know, when we read this list off next year, I don't think Walker and Lloyd are going to be in those impact rookie lists. They could, I mean, they could be a nice LB4 for you, that sort of thing. Or it might be the sort of thing where, you know, they've been, we're seven weeks in and Campbell goes down with an injury and all of a sudden Devin Lloyd is fantasy, I'm sorry, Quay Walker is fantasy relevant. But I'm just not happy, I'm happy at all with these linebackers for redraft. And you also mentioned the, the 43-so or 40-some-odd picks later that could have impact him. And that's Chad Muma from Wyoming. They took another inside linebacker in the third round, that's six-picked in the third round. So you've got, you had mentioned

Olicon, you had mentioned Lloyd. We have Walker who could be playing outside linebacker. You got Josh Allen there. And then you start looking at, okay, well, they got MoMA and there's a quarterman who was supposed to start. And then all of a sudden they start drafting guys left and right. And they have veterans like Tyrell Adams and Dakota Adams on the team. So there's still a whole bunch of stuff that has to be decided during training camp. And then once they get into preseason, you're going to start seeing a very quick development as to who's going to be actually stepping into the starter's role and who's going to see the most snaps.

So let's move on to a couple of defensive backs. Two of them jump out to me and they were both taken in the top five. By the way, now is a good time to mention this. What a great draft if you play IDP. I mean, the top five picks were all defensive players. The first two rounds were loaded with defensive players. And it was, I know everybody else at Fantasy Points was getting mad at me because I was tweeting left and right. It's like, oh my gosh, this is great.

Look at all these great players. and they would like send like snoring emojis and like crying emojis. No way. Yeah. What are you talking about? So I've got two that I've got my eye on and a lot of it has to do with playing time. One of them, my top one was the first defensive back off the board. He was drafted third and that's Derek Stingley, Stingley Jr.

I think he's probably going to play 900 to 1100 snaps. I really think he's got a great. roll carved out for him. This was who was in his way. He had Lonnie Johnson Jr. in his way. And the Texans just, yep, they just traded Lonnie Johnson away. So that should tell you all you need to know. I think Derek Stingley, Stingley Jr. has the best chance to be the AJ Terrell of this year in terms of getting a whole bunch of snaps. You need your rookie cornerback to basically play right out of the gate. and, you know, they have to put up a decent amount of production in terms of either interceptions or past defense.

Terrell did a pretty good job. He had 16 past defense. You love seeing that. He had three interceptions, had a force fumble. So those big play numbers really helped keep him in on the fantasy radar. And I think Stingley has that option as well. He's mainly a man, a cover guy. which is a little unusual because Levy Smith has really known more for being a zone

defensive coordinator. Every team now is mixing up man and zone way more than they were even three or four years ago. But it's also a sign that Levy Smith is looking to vary up his schemes a little bit more because that's what Stingley probably does a lot better than he does in terms of being an off defender or a zone defender. The other guy I really like is Sauce Gardner. He was drafted one spot after Stingley. I think he has, you know, he's on the Jets,

and there's not really that many people ahead of him. He's got Bryce Hall and Brandon Eccles across from DJ Reed. They signed DJ Reed from Seattle to play the other outside corner spot. So Gardner doesn't have quite the clear path that Stingley does, but it's the sort of thing that, you know, you'll know by the end of training camp, you'll either see Gardner out there on every, on every, on every, snap or they'll be still trying to figure out what they want to do with Eccles or Hall. But I think Gardner will be the guy who ends up being the every down outside corner for them.

I know Robert Saut, look, Robert Sahl is the head coach. He's a great defensive mind. And if he's going to use his first draft pick on Soss Gardner, he's likely not going to expect to be sitting that guy for the entire season. All right. So let's move on now. So those are the only rookies that I'm kind of excited. about watching in terms of redraft, at least for now. We'll get into some sleepers. Now, I mentioned all of these defensive players to get drafted. This immediately impacts the veterans.

We already talked about a veteran that got impacted in Lonnie Johnson. Where did he go? What other, we're going to look for players who now all of a sudden have competition for their starting job. And we're also going to be looking at players who basically, for lack of a better term, dodged a bullet. You know, if you're a linebacker and your team doesn't draft a linebacker in the draft and you've already made it through free agency, there's a good chance you're going to feel pretty confident about your role. So Thomas, what veterans are you looking at? Well, you had mentioned teams that dodged a bullet or players that dodged a bullet. There was one that did dodge a bullet, but he was definitely impacted by the fact that the Saints didn't draft a safety.

And consequently, the Saints went out and signed Tyrant. Matthew, who had been sitting on free agency for quite a while all the way through the draft, which was kind of a surprise because we thought he'd be one of the top players taken in free agency when it broke out in March. With no safety taken by the Saints, then they turned around and signed homegrown Matthew, who was originally from New Orleans. He signed a three-year, $33 million contract. And that's a clear indication that, yeah, they did sign Marcus May in the, in the,

during and Daniel Sorensen during free agency back in March, and they still have C.J. Gardner Johnson, but Matthew signing a three-year, $11 million a year contract, pretty much is locking him in as the starting safety for the Saints. Yeah, I mean, I read something about that basically right after the draft. The Saints were talking. So there was any particular free agents out there that you guys are looking at he leaned it. He's like, I mean, there's one in particular we're looking at.

You guys probably know who we're talking about. And then the next day he was signed. So, yeah, that's a pretty good, good spot for him. It's going to be interesting to see how it all works out. I mean, you know, we've talked so much on this podcast about Sorensen, his struggles. You know, I wonder if they don't make him a full-time linebacker because that seems to be how Casey used him best. I'm still fascinated by Marcus May. This definitely kills Marcus May's value. Granted, they did let, who is the safety? Marcus Williams, they let you go to Baltimore.

So, you know, the thing with May and also with Sorensen, Sorensen could be playing a lot more nickel linebacker in the dying packages for the Saints. And this allows them that ability to do that with having Matthew and May as the starters. and they still have CJ Gardner Johnson as a third safety option. So they could actually put four safeties out on the field at any given time. I like it. Now, to move on, another linebacker that was, speaking of linebackers, one that was taken that was kind of a surprise was Bobby Wagner.

Wagner, when this whole thing went down with Seattle and the Russell Wilson situation, Wagner got caught up in that because the, Seahawks wanted to release Wagner because his contract was too big. First of all, Wagner, yes, he has been getting 100 total tackles a year. The problem he's having recently, especially in the last year and a half to two years, is that his tackles are happening beyond the line of scrimmage, where in the past, his tackles would happen behind the line of scrimmage and they'd be tackles for losses.

So a lot of his tackles this year are allowing two, three, four yards a rush. And that's the reason why they didn't see him. as a $17 million option for them because of the fact that, okay, well, you know, you're slowing down. So they wanted to reduce his salary and he wouldn't do it. And consequently, they were going to let him go. And then the whole Russell Wilson thing blew up. And the transaction period for Wagner fell right in the middle of that Russell Wilson debacle with the trade. Which to me personally, I look at that trade as being a valid trade.

They got good return value from the Wilson deal. But the way they handled Wagner kind of leaves him with a chip on his shoulder. And so as he do, he signs with the Rams and now plays Seattle twice a year, which I have to point out that both Wilson and Wagner are going to return to Seattle this year and play road games in Seattle. That's going to be interesting. But get back to Wagner, he signed a two-year deal with the Rams for $17.5 million. Now, yeah, he'll approach 100 tackles again, but chances are.

and not a lot of them are going to be for losses. And you'll see as the season progresses that a lot of the tackles he makes are past the line of scrimmage. And that was the big hang up that the Seahawks had. Yeah. So I guess I'll move on to some of the, like Houston is another situation, another linebacker there that probably benefited. Even though Houston drafted Christian Harris out of Alabama, Harris will more. most likely challenge the opposite inside linebacker position for that Christian Kirksey is going to hold down. Now, they turned around and they re-signed Kirksey in March on a two-year deal for

$10 million. And Kirksey is probably going to anchor that maybe even where the green dot, that's to be seen because they've made a lot of changes on that defense. But even the drafting of Christian Harris doesn't hurt Kirksey as much as it would hurt, let's say, a Neville Hewitt or somebody along that lines or a Kamu Gurier Hill, you know, those two will probably be affected the most by Harris being signed than Kirksey. Yeah, I agree with that. I, you know, and just look at all the things we've been talking about. I mean, Harris wasn't, Harris wasn't a top 10 pick by a long shot. So it will be difficult for him to push somebody like Kirksey who, you know, I think is, you know, still has plenty of meat left of the bone, if you will. And I don't see Kirksey. I don't

I don't see Harris being a threat to Kirksey either. I totally agree about that. Who else you got? I'm going to move on to players that are being negatively, negatively affected by this draft, and one of the players is Terran Johnson from Buffalo cornerback. The bills drafted Kair E. Lim with the 23rd pick, and he likely starts at right cornerback, which in one respect, it means that Johnson's not going to be a starter. In another respect, Johnson is a better nickelback.

and he is a starting cornerback. He isn't a shutdown cornerback, but he, fantasy-wise, produces very well as a nickelback, and he sees significant playing time. So while he won't be a starter, we do expect him to at least being affected by Elam in the sense that Elam will start at right cornerback, the rookie will.

Then Johnson will be a nickelback option for you, and he still will give you fantasy production. Yeah, and we won't know this yet until we see some actual football in terms of what Buffalo is going to do this year. It's highly unlikely they're going to keep just doing the same thing over and over again because that's how you get beat in the NFL. But last year, they played one of the highest, if not the highest percentage of nickel. I mean, their base was nickel. It just was. So Johnson played in the slot all season and actually was very productive.

But now they do have another corner here involved. It just muddies up the water a little bit. And Johnson was a solid fantasy option for us last year. Now we not only have the question of, will they continue to run that same defense that put Johnson in such a favorable position? And how will Elam's involvement change this up? It might be Elam now that ends up being the better fantasy option. It's a little too early to tell, but certainly as, you know, we were talking earlier about some of these rookies.

We're looking for, I think of it like this. I think of it like you're going to make a bet, right? So if you're going to bet on some games, you can make that straight bet that somebody's going to win the game. Or you can make these parlayers where it's like, right, well, I need this to happen. So every factor that stands in the way of a fantasy player getting to that, to that perfect situation where they become a fan. a highly valuable fantasy option, every one of those things, steps that gets in their way is just, is like a parlay bet. Now you're trying to hit a five team or a seven teamer to say, well, if this guy gets cut and they change defensive coordinators and they get lucky with this. And, you know, then this guy's going to be great.

You look at Aiden Hutchinson and you say, okay, I see a very clear path for him. You look at, you know, you look at Tehran Johnson. and now there's another step that he has to clear to be able to produce the fantasy value he produced for us last year. Yeah, and you said the biggest two-letter word in the English dictionary, if. If, there's a lot of ifs that go on here. And I'll move on to defensive end Romeo O'Quara from Detroit. Now, the Hutchinson drafting, obviously Hutchinson was drafted, he's most likely going to start. The rookie will cut into O'Corp's playing time.

Now, if we're projecting Hutchinson at 700 to 900 snaps in 2022, somewhere in that area, then he could actually be given an opportunity to try to be a three-down defensive end. And if that's the case, then O'Corpos days are numbered. Now, we don't know about the Achilles injury situation that he had in 2021, Okora. So we don't know if he's still recovering from this. And this is this was a move made out of one necessity. And two, this was a great talent available for the Lions at number two in the pick and Hutchinson. Or was the pick in Hutchinson just a, hey, Okwara is done.

So that's something that you have to be very leery about. Ropora has been shown some fancy flashing in the past year, but injuries and the drafting of Hutchinson puts his future in question. Now, I'll move on to two other players that were affected by the draft, especially one of them early on, and that was the drafting of Devin Lloyd for Shaquille Quarterman on Jacksonville. Now, you had mentioned Lloyd and I brought up Chad Muma. So here's two guys that they drafted at inside linebacker. And quarterman who looked like he was going to go into camp as a starter,

is all of a sudden now looking like he may not even make the team. So you're going to have to be really, really careful with quarterman if you're even thinking of considering him in deep, deep leagues. It'll be, quarterman will be lucky to see any snaps, let alone significant snaps. And then you add in the fact that they brought in FOIA Olocon as well. as Lloyd and Mooma through the draft and quartermen's numbers are going to be really, really scarce. Also on Green Bay, you mentioned the Quay Walker drafting, and that's going to affect Chris Barnes. As you had mentioned earlier, Chris Barnes is going to be a person that could get

kicked to the side because they won. They obviously have a clear indication that the writing is on the wall, let's put it that way for Barnes. And the coaching staff doesn't feel confident in Barnes enough to where they want him to start next to Blake Martinez. I mean, not Blake Martinez, I'm sorry, Devondre Campbell. So you're looking at Barnes as saying, okay, well, why did they draft Walker? And all of a sudden now Walker could start ahead of Barnes and Barnes could be a special teamer at best. I also, I'm curious what you think about, uh, what's, going on with John Franklin Myers. That's somebody that, you know, looked to be ascending and then the Jets made a draft move and how these puzzle pieces fit. How do you see that? Puzzle pieces?

Okay. Jermaine Johnson was taken with the 26 pick by the Jets. And by the way, the Jets had a pretty decent draft, you know, considering the Jets and in their history. They, getting Gardner in the first round and then picking up Johnson with the 26 pick. Pretty impressive. Now, Franklin Myers was supposed to start at defensive end, but he's going to see a significant loss in snaps, especially in passing situations when the jets will start using Johnson, the rookie, as an edge rusher. And so Franklin Myers could be just a two-down lineman at best in a rotational situation and only be out there when there is obvious rushing downs. and that doesn't bode well in a three-four defense for a defensive lineman. The tackles aren't very plentiful for a three-four defensive end. So I think John Franklin Myers is going to suffer from the fact that Jermaine Johnson is going to,

the second is going to steal snaps from him. I did read that they plan on kicking Franklin Myers inside on passing down. So I think he'll get, he might get more snaps than it might. appear, but I agree with you, unless he gets, unless he has some good fortune, here we go with the ifs, right? If he has good fortune and can rack up a few more sacks than, uh, than normal, then I think Franklin Myers could be a solid fantasy option. But that's a big if, uh, on, on, on that defense. I think him, him, my, my concern is that, um, even though he'll kick inside, how many snaps on the outside will he get? And as you were just saying, you know,

that defense doesn't tend to produce a ton of fantasy value across the board. You have Quinnon Williams there, who is usually somebody we rely on fantasy. But this defense isn't known for making two or three defensive ends fantasy relevant. And Franklin Myers now certainly has competition. And with Sala and his approach to his defensive coaching staff, he's going to want them and they're going to lean more towards a four three in 2022 in 2022. And you had mentioned with Franklin Myers possibly moving inside on obvious passing downs. You've got Quinn Williams in there and you have veterans like Sheldon Rankins and Solomon Thomas and it's quite busy inside.

And so, you know, Franklin Myers is going to be hard pressed to get those snaps. And if he is in a rotational situation, it's not going to be a high-end snap count rotation. Do you have any more you want to hit before we want to rookies? Yeah, I'll hit a few more. There's a couple linebackers that I want to make footnotes on for everybody because of the fact that Jermaine Carter was signed by Kansas City in the offseason on a one-year, $1.77 million contract. But then they turn around and they drafted Leo Chanel from Wisconsin. And this kid is a stout run stopper that needs to learn, you know, the stack linebacker role that the chiefs use. And if he does do this quickly, then Carter's days, he'll likely start the season as the starter inside in the middle,

kind of in the Anthony Hitchens role from last year. but Carter could see his snap count get reduced if Chanel has a, you know, a quick learning curve and adjust to the NFL very quickly. Another linebacker that is being affected by the draft is Landon Roberts from Miami. The Dolphins allowed two yards rushing after contact last year. That was 30th overall in the NFL. So they turned around and they drafted inside linebacker Channing Tyndall out of Georgia with a 100 second pick. And this rookie will challenge Roberts right out of the gate for the starting job. So Roberts could lose his job.

And a couple of Minnesota Vikings that I want to bring footnote to are Cameron Bynum at Free Safety and Cameron Dantzler at cornerback. The Vikings have Harrison Smith as a starter. And then they drafted Lewis Sine with the 32nd overall pick. So Bynum, while he showed promise last year in his rookie season, it looks like he could be the third safety off the bench for Minnesota. 2022. And Dantzler could end up moving to the nickel position because Minnesota drafted Andrew Booth, Jr. with the 42nd pick overall. And with Patrick Peterson on one side, Booth could be a possible starter on the other side, and Dantzler could be the odd man out in the nickel role. Now, Minnesota does play quite a few passing teams this year. And, you know, they have Green Bay and twice a year and so on

and so forth. So Dantzler could see significant time, but still, it's going to affect him a little. little bit. All right. Let's move on to some of our, these will be a little bit more like quick hits as we're known for. We're going to talk about some rookie sleepers and maybe a few rookie busts. I'm going to start with somebody you just mentioned, and that's Lewis Seen there in Minnesota. I do think his skill set is more conducive to playing the run stopper as opposed to playing post safety, playing deep safety. Harrison Smith can do both and has done both. Now, Harrison Smith had a monster season last year, but I would not be surprised if they use Seen, if he can get that starting gig right out of the gate, which I think he's capable of

because it really doesn't have a ton of competition around him. Seen could be someone who ends up stealing some fantasy value, and it's the sort of thing where all of a sudden you're scrambling when you realize, you know, I mean, how many times you picked up a safety who had a great season the year before. And then, you know, four weeks into the season, you realize his partner is now doubling his output every week. And you picked the wrong, you know, the wrong of two safeties. Right. It happens all the time.

And so scene is one of the guys that I'm looking for. You're just watching carefully to see how those, you know, how the snaps of production is going. So I like him. For defensive ends, George Carlavis and Kenner, Kansas City. He'll be playing next to Chris Jones. There's a chance there that, you know, they like Jones back inside, and then you've got Carl Laptis on the outside, and then Frank Clark on the other side. Carl Laptus could get some momentum going, get a lot of snaps and end up being fantasy relevant. I see him more as a high tackle guy, you know, maybe not quite,

who's the one of Sam Hubbard, right? Maybe like that kind of a player who gives you a lot of tackles every week, but not necessarily a lot of sacks. Another guy I like, this is over in your neck of the woods, and that's Boie Maefe. They really need help on that defensive line there in Seattle, and Mafei will get a chance to fill in and be a heavy player. I don't think either these guys are going to put up monster numbers, but I would not be surprised if a few things go their way, then all of a sudden they're the defensive ends, everyone's scrambling to pick up.

Lastly, for linebacker, Nikobe Dean, he fell in the draft for quite a number of reasons. But, you know, one is he might have a peck injury, but also he's just smaller than the other, than the prototypical linebacker is now. And Chad Muma, like you had mentioned earlier, both of those guys could move up the depth chart sooner rather than later. Yeah, I like, you know, the Seattle's, Mafei's choice. he's going to be mostly used off the edge. And, you know, they brought in in the trade that they had with Denver. They brought in Shelby Harris.

They're not very happy with L.J. Collier, so much so that they opted not to sign or input is fifth year options. So you're looking at him being more of a situational edge rusher in his first season. So, yes, you're correct in that he won't garner you a lot of fantasy points, but he is somebody to keep an eye on. A person that I do think could have an immediate impact is Jaquan Brisker with Chicago. But the 48th pick, they drafted Brisker, and it looks like he's going to go into camp as a starting strong safety next to free safety, Eddie Jackson. Versatility is what gives Brisker his best chance to be, at least have an impact, immediate impact for 2022. Last year he played, I think it was 400 snaps at safety, 100 snaps at linebacker and 100 snaps at nickel cornerback for Penn State.

He has excellent ball hawking skills and he defends the run well. So he could be an immediate impact starter at safety for Chicago. And one other dynasty note that I want to point out for a sleeper is Dallas picking another linebacker who's banged up and yet could have dynasty impact. And that's Desmond Clark. Clark will likely miss the entire 2022 season because he had I think it was spinal fusion surgery recently. But he's an excellent run stuffer. And if he improves on his coverage skills, could be a three-down linebacker at the middle linebacker. spot for Dallas. Now, imagine Parsons and Jibril Cox and Clark and Dallas could be a, you know,

a down-the-road stud linebacker factory. I like that. Let's move on to some rookie busts. I started us off with sleepers. Why don't you get us started with some of your busts? Well, there's a few that I, I know that Kyle Hamilton was drafted 14th overall by Baltimore. And there's a very strong possibility that Hamilton sees a lot of snaps as a third safety because the problem I have here is that Baltimore spent some money in the free agency market. They brought in Marcus Wilson. They have Chuck Clark starting at safety. Clark is not a stud and Hamilton could easily unseat Clark.

But to go into training camp, he's got Chuck Clark, Marcus Wilson, Marcus Williams, Gino Stone, I think it's Tony Jefferson and Brandon Steve. evens all ahead of him on the depth chart. So he's going to have to climb over some veteran players in order to get those snaps in the third down role or third safety role, let alone unseat either Clark or Williams for a starting safety job. Yeah, that is my number one guy, too. That's the first guy I thought of was Hamilton. I totally agree. You know, high pick, which is great.

Let me just run these numbers back for you one more time. you know, last year, we had 11 defensive backs taken in the first rounds. Several of them, sorry, taken in the first two rounds. 11 defensive backs, not a single one of those safeties made it in the top 30, even. And only one of them, which was a rookie corner, made it in the top 25. So he not only has history stacked against a, man, what a terrible landing spot for fantasy. They love using three safety. Chuck Clark and Marcus Williams, if you, however much you lean on PFF, Marcus Williams and Chuck Clark were both in their like top 25 highest graded safeties.

They're not going over. They brought Marcus Williams in for a reason. Gino Stone has been a consistent presence in that defensive backfield when they do three safety sets. Tony Jefferson, a veteran presence there. There's a lot of safeties for him to go through. I don't think Kyle Hamilton is fantasy relevant for at least a couple of years. Great player, but just terrible fit. You know, in his worky season and maybe even into his second year,

he'll be mostly a coverage safety than anything else. Now, if there is an upside, Hamilton does have versatility and that he can play strong safety, free safety, and the nickel linebacker. Now, speaking of linebackers, there's two linebackers I want to point out as possible bus, and they both were drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. One of them is the defensive end that they're going to move to linebackers. And that's Arnold Eba, Eba KT, and he's most likely going to start training camp as the Will Linebacker. And now they're going into a 3-4 base defense.

And the Will Linebacker in this defense, this particular defense, is suspect because he's more of a situational linebacker. And the Falcons love to run the 425 frequently, which means do they go with just two linebackers? and they have Dion Jones and they also have Rashan Evans that they signed as well as Michael Walker. And that's the second linebacker is Troy Anderson, who they drafted with the 58th pick. So they have these two linebackers at 38th and 58th in the draft that are going to be playing behind guys like Dion Jones, Rashon Evans, Michael Walker, and could see limited snaps because of the style of defense that the Falcons are going to be running, where they will run out just two linebackers on a frequent basis. Yeah, I agree.

I'm not super excited about either of those guys, particularly Anderson. Again, Anderson is the type of guy that three years from now, everybody will be drafting him as well they should, but he's going to somehow leapfrog Dionne Jones and Roshan Evans. And again, Michael Walker had some great moments last year, and he's somebody, I think the team, he's an underrated player. and he will definitely be on the field next year. There's no way Troy Anderson's going to be out there taking that many snaps away.

You hit a lot of the ones that struck me. I'll mention a few here. One for me, this is the fifth overall pick, and that's Kvon, Tibado. Great player, bad fit. Another Baltimore bad fit. He's likely the, you know, we talked a little bit of. about this with Trayvon Walker. But it's a, it's different usage.

He's likely going to be an OLB. He might even play some Sam for them. So he's not likely to be a defensive end. So if you're at a traditional DL league, Tibado's value already tanks. But, you know, this, this scheme doesn't, doesn't produce a lot of, of elite pass rush productivity. They tend to blitz from defensive backs and linebackers.

And so, you know, they've had some great pass rushers that don't put up monster seasons. And that's even, like we're talking about veterans here, Clayas, Campbell, you know, about when Matt Judon was on the team. Instead of said, these guys will go to other teams and start producing a high fantasy value, but they just didn't on Baltimore. Not on that kind of level. I think Tibado's the guy who's going to be great for their defense long term, but he's just not somebody that I think is going to have a three-down role. because although he was an effective pass rusher, he only has a handful of NFL caliber pass rush moves, which means you can't put him against veteran O'Linman for, you know,

40, 50, 60 snaps a game. You're not going to beat these guys if you're a one or two-trick pony. You can, however, beat them if it's the third quarter and it's third and 12, and you bring in a fresh Kavon-Tibano and he can get to the quarterback. I definitely think he's got that capability. And he will win that way more often than not. But those opportunities only come around every so often. So I'm not super big on him.

Yeah. Wink Markendale is going to use him mostly in a edge rushing situation, mostly off the edge, either weak side or a strong side, whichever, mostly the weak side. And that's because Martindale has, you know, his hybrid defense, he uses, like you said, it uses these players in multiple facets. And he loves to apply pressure, but it comes from so many different places, up the middle, from the edge, from the secondary.

And that's where Thievedo will end up getting damaged fantasy-wise is because of the fact that he will be in a limited edge-rushing situation to begin with. All right, that's going to wrap it up. We covered a bunch of IDPs. We got a bunch of rookies in there, some veteran presence as well. If there's anything to get from this is that try to resist the urge to hit the draft button on these rookies for redraft this year. You know, we've seen it time and time again. After all that gloom and doom, hopefully some of the stuff we said helped you with breaking down some dynasty stashes.

A lot of these players that we mentioned, we really like long term. three or four years from now, maybe even next year, right? We talked about how Josh Allen, I remember when he got drafted, we were saying he's got the tools, but it's unlikely he's going to be a stud right out of the gate. And, you know, a year later he is. So we might be looking more like that down the road. And we were last year, we were all over, Zavian Collins,

thinking he was going to be, you know, a stud. And by the end of the year, we were kicking ourselves going, What were we thinking? Yeah, even we're not immune to all the, all the, all the, all the, all the post-draft type. And, you know, when you watch, when you watch the draft, you know, if you get two, if you get two into that, all of these players, man, they just all look like they're pro bowlers. Every single one of them. This year, some, you know, and there's also this thing we all fight. I see it most often when it comes to running backs.

Whoever is on the bench for your team, somehow that running back is the best running back that's ever lived. And he just needs a chance. And I don't know what's wrong with this stupid coaching staff that won't give this guy a chance to run the football. And then as soon as he gets the job and doesn't really do a whole lot, then you move on to the guy who's backing him up on the bench and say, no, maybe that's the guy. So it's a common thing to see these younger players and just assume they're going to be the next Reggie White.

It's a hard thing to sift through. But that's where we're here to help you. It's like how many, in the last three years, how many times have we pulled our hair out because Tracy Walker on Detroit was doing great one year. And the next year they didn't use him the right way. And then the next year he did okay. And now they got Kirby Joseph. You just, you end up chasing your tail. And then in the end, you have to remember that as we've progressed over the years, especially now, we're using more and more rotations.

and the traditional, you know, middle linebacker isn't what we used to know 10 years ago. And the strong safety and free safeties are so versatile these days that you can have Jamal Adams rushing off the edge and quandary digs doing the deep, you know, drop off. And then the next play, it's digs that's coming off the edge. And Adams is dropping off and it goes on and on and on and on. Yes, sir. All right. Well, we don't want to go on and on and on. We want to let you all get back to your lives.

We'll probably do a few more podcasts spread out over the offseason, and then things will start for the IDP corner, at least. We'll start heating up as we get into training camp and preseason, and then you're going to blink, and it'll be time for a real football again. So for everybody at FantasyPoints.com, I'm Justin Varns. You can follow me on Twitter and Down with IDP. We're going to get out of here, Thomas. Be well and be safe.

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