Fantasy Football Daily - IDP Corner: Our Must-Draft Guys

Episode Date: August 31, 2024

Justin Varnes (@DownWithIDP) and Tom Simons discuss the IDP MUST DRAFT players. #FFIDP Dynasty Fantasy Football Playlist - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-kupTuz42SeHflK6fqOqKTxwqB2s46M6&si=MlpKS9aY6Nqdwr8- Use promocode - SCOREMORE for 10% off your subscription. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DownWithIDP http://twitter.com/FantasyPTS FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When you're flying Emirates business class, sampling our range of vintage wines, from the largest selection in the skies, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates, fly better. What? What are you shaking, you, Ed? You're welcome. Welcome to another edition of the IDP Corner, sponsored by the Fantasy Points Now podcast and network. We are super excited to be bringing you some more IDP.

content. My name is Justin Barnes, one of the two IDP analysts over at FantasyPoint.com. You can follow me on Twitter and down with IDP. And with us as always, everybody get ready, buckle up, put your helmets on, strap it in. Here is Mr. Thomas Simons. How you doing tonight, Thomas? Chich, chich changes. Turn and face the string. Chit changes. Yep, it's that time of year, Mr. Barnes. We have heads spinning with all these roster, cut downs and changes going on and everything is just blowing in the wind. All right, that's two song references in one. That's like a two for Tuesday.

Yeah, well, as always, this is always the crazy time of year when lots of roster cuts happen. You know, surprise cuts. We have a few surprise cuts releases. Also, some people get, quote unquote, cut only to get put back on the roster because of some procedural move. Some people freak out over that. Hopefully we can help clear the landscape there as to what is legitimate, what is not. And we also also had the big trade of Ernest Jones, which we're going to dig into in the second part of our podcast, which is a feature we're calling My Guys, a term that we borrowed from the great John Hanson and a lot of other people at Fantasy Points. It's really the way I look at it.

These are people that I keep leaving every draft with it. There are some of them I just, I don't feel right unless I make sure that I leave my draft with them. Thomas has got a bunch and I got a bunch. We're going to dive into all that. But before we talk about all the cool people we're going to draft and we're super excited about because they're healthy and they're going to play football in a couple of days, let's talk about all the people who are not going to play football in a couple of days. Well, let's start off by having a retraction. We reported in a previous podcast that Nick Herbig was placed on IR.

It wasn't Nick. It was Nate Herbing on the Steelers. not Nick. So Nick is playing and is a viable IDP option in big play scoring leagues. I'm going to start off with injured reserve DNR, which is designated to return. Now, what that basically means is to start the season, these players have to sit the first four weeks. And then after that, they are eligible to come off injured reserve, even though some of them will likely stay longer. Start off with defensive end Miles Murphy and Cincinnati with a knee. Darius Robinson, the rookie defensive end from Arizona with a calf.

Linebacker Christian Harris on Houston has a lingering calf issue and will be out the first four weeks. Linebacker Cedric Gray, the rookie from Tennessee, shoulder out first four games. Cornerback, Dane Jackson from Carolina, hamstring, a significant hamstring injury, is out four weeks. weeks, but is most likely going to be longer than that. Cornerback DeRond Blan, on Dallas has a stress fracture, and he's out four weeks, more likely six to seven weeks. Cornerback Ambry Thomas on San Francisco has a broken four arm, likely out until December or longer.

I believe Thomas was on the roster after the roster cuts and then placed on IR, and that's a different set of rules for injured reserve. When you're on the rock, go on IR, you are eligible to come back during the season, even though it's not the DNR that you're using. Safety, DeMarco Helms on Atlanta, ankle injury, out four weeks. Sam Franklin, Carolina, foot. Safety, Marte Mapu from New England. Safety, James Bradbury, the 4th in Philadelphia. The experimenting of moving him to safety halts six to eight weeks after a lower-level.

leg injury landed him on injured reserve after cuts. Also on injured reserve, but done for the year, is defensive tackle Armand Watson, New England, and cornerback Brandon Fosson from Las Vegas. All right. We're going to continue here with some PUP moves and also a couple of trades and the cuts and releases, which are obviously huge. But before we do that, we're going to step aside for a quick commercial break. Snap up Ancestry DNA's lowest price ever in our incredible cyber sale

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All right, Thomas, want you. you keep rolling. Let's hit some PUPs. Well, there's three that stand out. Linebacker, CNA, Taki, and New England. He had his knee scoped. He's out most likely two weeks to two months. He'll miss at least four games. Linebacker Cole Holcomb on Pittsburgh has knee injury. He'll miss the first four games. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw in San Francisco. He tore his ACL jumping on the sidelines in the Super Bowl. And he'll miss the first four games, but his like out until December. Now, the non-football injury list, there's one big name on there, and that's defensive tackle Christian Barmore in New England. He has blood clots and will miss

at least four games, but he's being listed as out indefinitely. There are a couple of trades, nothing major or earth-shattering outside of the one that we'll get to later, which is Ernest Jones. Linebacker Cameron Thomas is Arizona traded him to Kansas City for 2026. seventh round pick, and Thomas most likely will play defensive end for Kansas City. Cornerback Elijah Molden was traded by Tennessee to L.A. for a 2026 seventh round pick. Now, there were some cuts and releases here. Defensive end Carl Lawson on Dallas was outright cut. Linebacker Nick Vigil on Dallas was cut.

Linebacker Chris Barnes on Arizona was cut, but was then added to the practice squad. cornerback C.J. Henderson on Houston was released. Cornerback Desmond King II on Houston was slated to be the starting nickel cornerback, but he lost his job and was cut as well. Cornerback Nick Needham on Miami was cut but added to the practice squad. Safety Adrian Amos Jacksonville and Safety Lewis Sene from Minnesota were both cut. These players, these five safeties I'm going to name now were all cut but added to the practice squad. safety Kareem Jackson Buffalo

Safety Tony Jefferson Los Angeles Chargers Safety Jonathan Abram New Orleans Safety Tracy Walker the 3rd San Francisco and safety Terrell Edmonds Tennessee Hey Thomas Great job on that just real quick

since we're going to have to cut some of this We're going to have to go back and cut the part where you say that you did a retraction Because if you start printing retractions I'm going to spend the next five years going back and digging through all the terrible things I said. So let's not keep that trend going. Please, Thomas, you're going to give me some agendas there.

How many times I've gone like, I've done things where I've been talking about a linebacker on Minnesota for like seven minutes. And you finally pop in and be like, oh, by the way. So please, no retractions. All right. I'm going to retract the retraction. Okay. I'll buy that. I'm going to talk about our next subject here, which is going to be this my guys section.

This is something I definitely. My geis. My skies. I'm not going to retract these. I'm pretty excited about mine. You know, I know some of them are going to miss, but there are some players that I've just keep taking. And I know you have some of your own as well. So, but I've got, you know, I've got a handful of drafts left.

We're actually getting probably to the busiest part of draft season. So we want to give you some of these names. If you ever feel stuck, start looking for some of these guys, particularly a lot of them, I think, have a bunch of upside. For me, I mentioned them on this podcast a couple, a couple episodes ago, maybe four or five episodes ago. I am planting my flag on Aidan Hutchinson. I think he is going to be the new DE1. And I'm not saying he's going to, you know, bypass Max Crosby or Miles Garrett just like that. I mean, they all could be there.

But what I'm really saying when I say that is that I think this is the year that he reaches their level. This is the year that we, because we talk about Max Crosby, Miles Garrett, Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt. We all kind of talk about them in the same breadth and the same tier. And then there's these other really good, you know, defensive ends and OLB is kind of in that next tier. I believe this is going to be Hutchinson's year. A couple things. First of all, he's just the complete. package when it comes to being a defender.

I saw this really cool thing on Twitter. James Foster, who's at No Flag's Film on Twitter. I'm going to give him a shout out because he created this great grid, this great spreadsheet. He did this cool piece where he charted every pressure from last season and did it by success and also by diversity. How many pass rush moves do they have, does a defender have and how successful are they? and Hutchinson topped the list. He had the highest success with the most diverse pass rush moves.

That means he can beat you in a dozen ways. He's entering his third season where we often see that leap for elite defensive linemen. Also, now he has DJ Reeder right next to him. That's really going to help him with double teams. I just think everything is set up for him to kind of turn that corner. We all know he's super talented. He had nine and a half sacks his rookie year and 11 and a half sacks last year. As I'd mentioned when I talked about him a couple of podcasts ago, his pressure rate should have produced about 15 to 16 sacks last season.

So he just got pretty unlucky. I think he's going to have the luck turnaround for him. Third year, he's stronger. He's even more ready for the season. He's got more help on his defensive line. I just think it's, I think it's Aidan Hutchinson's time this year. Jacksonville hired Ryan Nielsen away from the Atlanta Falcons as the defensive coordinator after the Falcons. purge their coaching staff.

He will, Nielsen will install a new defensive scheme for Jacksonville. Now, Foye Olucon is expected to lead the team in tackles again. That's not a surprise. But it appears Nielsen is going to use Devin Lloyd as the middle linebacker. And Olocon is the weak side linebacker. Now, they're going to probably run two linebackers set. So they're both going to be playing in the middle.

But I think Olocon is going to lean more towards the weak side and Lloyd will lean more towards the middle. Now, this could boost Lloyd's fantasy production a bit. OlaCon's still going to wear the green dot, but Lloyd should also be a three-down linebacker, too. Now, Lloyd started his career having issues and was benched in favor of Chad Muma, who didn't do much better. So they went back to Lloyd, and last year they stuck with Lloyd, and he didn't do too bad for fantasy owners. So I've been going after Lloyd a lot because people are letting him slide. His ADP is low, and he tends to do.

be around later than most linebackers who are top two or top three-tier linebackers. Yeah, I used to talk about this a lot about the shadow effect, right? Luke Keeckley, obviously, soon-to-be Hall of Famer from the Carolina Panthers. He was one of the best linebackers to play the game, just insane number of tackles. And right next to him, playing almost every snap was Thomas Davis, who also put up insane numbers. But he was a forgotten man because he played in the shadow of Luke Kikley. We've seen this a bunch of times. And, yeah, Lloyd basically playing in the middle.

He's essentially a forgotten man. We see so many tackles from Aluacan. And then that makes us just assume that there's none left for Devin Lloyd, but that's just not the case. I love that pick, man. That was great. I'm going to go back to a guy I was high on last year, and that's safety camcourl. He did well for us last season. He still ended up in top 12.

I had him really more as like a top five guy, but he did get banged up, which cost him. When he wasn't banged up, he definitely was playing as a higher end DB1. He moves to Los Angeles. And remember, the Rams just lost Ernest Jones. So having that one premier leading tackler in the middle of the defense is likely going to create more opportunities for Curl. The team might actually lean on. curl a little bit more in the box to help this crew of of of of of linebackers that they're trying to cycle between we're going to talk about

them in and in just a minute but basically I think curls on the floor and ceiling has raised with with Ernest Jones moving away I also think that just across the board he's so talented and he's so diverse they they they got him for a reason and he's just somebody for me that when everybody's taking the higher and the Jesse Bates and Cam Bynum's and all that. I'm waiting a few rounds later, and I'm super excited to get Camcourl. He's probably my number one drafted or my most drafted DB this season.

Well, that one minute is up because the Rams traded Jones to Tennessee, and it created a buzz on both teams. Now, Jones will start next to Kenneth Murray for the Titans, and that means that Jack Gibbons goes back to coming off the bench in a reserve role. The biggest buzz is who will start for the Rams? and who will wear the green dot. Now, undrafted rookie Omar Spates has played extremely well this preseason, but he's just not ready to be the signal caller for the Rams.

So either Christian Roseboom or Troy Reader, who both did not play in the preseason, will handle the responsibilities. Now, it's very telling that Reader got a press conference before Roseboom, and Roseboom didn't. And that happened recently. That's a clear indication that it looks like, They don't give press conferences to back a player. So Reader looks like he's going to be the starter and most likely wear the green dot.

Yeah, I know everybody's high on spates and we've talked about this so much. Everybody wants to be the guy who drafts or the girl who drafts the player. The diamond in the rough. Yeah, exactly. Oh, nobody saw this coming. He was undrafted. I mean, we all root for that. Everybody wants Rudy to, you know, to leave the league and tackles.

And I'm not saying that space won't do that. But, you know, readers, readers been in L.A. for a minute. He obviously knows the defense very well. It's rare that you hand the keys to the defense to a player like space. Just because they like him and they're rooting for him and they think he's going to be a really good player, doesn't mean he's an every down superstar for you. Right. And he's young and he's not ready to handle the signal calling and running the defense.

And you got to remember last year that Roseboom got replaced by Reader during the season. And Reader, like you said, knows the system very well. All right. We're going to go into several more of our My Guys here in just a second, but we're going to step aside real quick for a quick commercial break. All right, I'm going to keep going. I'm going to dig into one of my favorite defensive tackles to take. usually, you know, every year we have a handful of defensive tackles who will kind of luck into a pile of tackles or even a pile of sacks.

And that's just the variance of sports in general will create these situations from time to time, a player who's going along and having his average season and then one season, it kind of spikes or kind of dips. That's just how uncertain, how much variance there is and what we're doing. Well, I think a lot of people think that Justin Madabweke was that guy last year. He played two seasons before, and he was a 30 to 40 tackle guy, two to five sacks, you know, doing okay, playing 50, 60 percent of the time. Last year, 56 tackles, 13 sacks. And this is, that was basically, you know, year four for him. So I think, you know, he's one of those guys. Well, maybe that was just a blip in the radar if you, if you average out.

his season, you know, his season stats, you know, that everybody's kind of ducking him back down. But there are two, there were, this offseason, I read a lot about him, listened to a lot of podcasts. There were too many people who know a lot more about football than I do that swear that this guy is an absolute monster. And to me, that's, that's what I need to hear that this wasn't likely a flu. I think he turned a corner and I'm turning that corner with them. So I just, matter of fact, I just did a, I did an IDP expert's draft reverse. review up for fantasy points. It's actually a free, it's a free article if you're not a fantasy point. You're not a fantasy point subscriber. What? So, but speaking of needing to print a retraction.

So he, I got him as a DL4. In round 25, I got Mada Buque as a as DL4 for me. And that's an IDP expert league. To me, if I'm in a DT required league in a draft or even a 3DL league, I do not like to leave my drafts without this guy. He's essentially free, and he, I mean, he tore up last year, and I don't think that's a fluke because, again, people who are a lot smarter than me happen to not think it's a fluke. Henry Toa Toa was slated to be just a two-down linebacker at best for the Texans until Christian Harris got placed on IR designated to return.

So for the first month of the season, Toa Toa and Jake Hansen will fill in for Harris, next to Aziz al-Shayr. Now, Toa Toa has seen more reps with the first team defense this summer and is likely going to start and play 80, 85% of the snaps in the first month of the season. So Toa Toa might be somebody you can run with early on at least for the first month. Yeah, and maybe a little bit longer. If you're somebody who is trying to scoop up Matt Milano super duper late in the draft and hope that he makes it back for your championship.

Same thing with Dre Greenlaw. Yeah, right. If you've got eyes for players like that, you can wait longer and pick up a Toa Toa and a few players like that who will get you through maybe the first, let's say they can get you through the first four to eight weeks of the season. Then you do a little patchwork. And then for that stretch run, you've got Greenlaw or Matt Milano. And then you're using two, yes, you're using two picks for one position, but both of those picks are super duper late because nobody's drafting those guys, even in the middle rounds or middle late rounds. totally great. Same team. They're basically their partner, as you mentioned, Aziz Al-Shahir. He's one of my guys. Last year, at a 14.7% tackle rate. And now he's leading the defense for the Texans. This should be a zone-heavy scheme again. That always helps our linebackers and safeties if it's a zone-heavy scheme. This is one of the reasons why it's tougher to get Cleveland Brown linebackers to really excel. We've seen this in the past with New England and some with Miami. And we also see it. I'd mentioned Cleveland, right? It's also happening in Cincinnati.

These are man-heavy schemes, which makes players like Logan Wilson, you know, they sometimes just, if they're, they're like continually underproducing, not necessarily underperforming, but They're just, it's always like there's too many like six and eight tackle games. We're looking more for like nine to 12 guy. So zone heavy schemes really can kind of boost that up. So Al Shahir, I think is in a great position there. He's also, he's proven that, you know, he had an excellent season last year. I don't think that was a fluke.

He has a high tackle rate. That number can fluctuate a good amount, but still we like to see it on the higher side as often as we can. Now, he's not going super late. He's going fairly high, but he's going to the middle rounds for me. but I'd rather take him than some of the bigger names who were flying off the board five and six rounds earlier. To me, this guy's got 130, 140 tackle season ahead of him as long as he stays healthy. He is my favorite LB2 to take. You know, my next three, my guys, are going to be basically surrounding rookies.

Now, there are a ton of rookies this year that will see playing time early on. I'm not saying that they're going to make immediate impacts, but these are players that could likely start right out of the gate, could build up a fantasy value for you early on in the season and be steady for you throughout the year. Kalyn Bullock is the first one I'm going to mention. He's performed well for the Texans this preseason. And so much so that Houston cut starting nickel cornerback, Desmond King, and they moved Jalen Petra to nickel cornerback spot.

Now, Petra will probably start the games as a safety, but when Houston goes into their nickel package, he'll slide into the nickel cornerback position more often than not. And that will be where Bullock comes out on the field. And he could see anywhere between 75 to 85% of the snaps in this role. 630 of Julian Blackman's 977 snaps last year were in that box slot roll. That was last season. Gus Bradley continues to roll. rock that old school cover three defense with the with the box strong safety he's doing this like

he like it's 1999 i mean look i love prince literally more than more than any other artists so i totally get this dude is old school which is awesome because that just gives us such a high floor with blackman blackman had 88 tackles in just 15 games last year 12.3 fantasy points per game he's not flashy he's not sexy but that high floor and that That cover three scheme to me is just too enticing to pass up. Again, DB3 or DB4 could easily be a solid DB2 for you this season. I love Julian Blackman. He's, to me, another guy, as we get toward the end of the drafts, my cue starts zeroing in on the Julian Blackman's, the Matabwekees.

I start really trying to zero in having fewer distractions. These are the guys I definitely want to leave with. I like that call on Blackman. He's definitely looking to have an up year. especially in Bradley's system. With Dallas putting starting right cornerback and interception specialist, Duran Bland on injured reserve designated to return after four weeks or more, rookie Kalen Carson is slated to start and should be targeted frequently by opponents right out of the gate.

This is a situation where you put rookies as a starting cornerback and teams are going to go after him just to see how well he does. Now, while this help his fantasy value early on, if he falters, then he could be replaced by C.J. Goodwin. But if he doesn't falter, there could be the risk also of the opponent saying, hey, this kid's good. Maybe we shouldn't be targeting him as frequently as we do. So there's risk here, but I like Carson being a target later in drafts because of the fact that he's going to start for the first month, at least for the opening day, and maybe possibly the first four month, four weeks and that should give you a person that will see a lot of high volume come his way. I like that you're going to go going deep with defensive backs here.

I'm going to do the same guy I'm trying to take as the last pick in my draft. It's basically being ignored. And look, if this doesn't pan out, it was your last pick. You're going to pick somebody up on the waiver wire. But to me, somebody for a last pick that has a ton of upside is basically, he's basically playing the slot now for Kansas City, and that's Chamari Connor. We think of him as a safety. He's basically

a safety. He plays a good amount of safety, but, you know, and he played somewhat last season. When he played last season, you know, PFF loved him. He had a 72.7 grade, 70% or 70

coverage grade. They've been using him a lot in the slot this year because they basically don't have another option at slot corner. They need somebody to play run defense there in the slot, somebody who can cover fairly well. I mean, obviously they got Trent McDuffie as their locked down corner, but after that, it's been a little bumpy for them. So the other thing Connor has been doing when he's not playing the slot is he also has

been playing a decent amount of box safety this preseason. So even if he doesn't play, you know, if they decide to move one of the other safeties into that slot position, Connor should still hopefully be on the field. Again, if he's not, he's your last draft pick. but if he comes through, we could have one of these cornerbacks who were putting up five to eight tackles a game

that absolutely nobody was talking about before week one. I like your point of view of look, it's your last pick and if it doesn't work out you can hit the waiver wire. We've said this over and over again, especially myself, that cornerbacks,

especially cornerbacks, are a dime a dozen. You can find a quality cornerback in week six, in week eight, in week 10, that is not necessarily going to give you consistent fantasy points, but can give you double-digit fantasy points every now and then. And that's, that's a key, especially when you're talking about the last pick of your draft in the 18th, 19, 20, 21st round. I'm going to go on to some rookie linebackers that will have an impact this season, albeit maybe later in the year. The list goes, Traven Wallace, Tyrese,

Knight, Jeremiah Trotter, and J.D. Bertrand. Josie Jewell is injury prone and Wallace is his backup in Carolina. But if Jewel goes down with an injury, Wallace will immediately be called upon as the first next man up. And he is capable of giving you five to seven tackles a game. Now, both Tyrell Dodson and Jerome Baker on Seattle have injury histories. And Knight has been just a pure tackling machine this summer. Believe me, I've been watching him closely and I saw his last game as I attended that game. I could see him getting on the field 25 to 30 percent of the snaps by opening day and waiting for one of these two to go down. And when they do, mark my words, Knight is going to make a name for himself. And I see Knight being the starting middle linebacker or inside linebacker and the anchor of this defense next year and beyond, especially with the fact that both Dotson and Baker only have one-year contracts.

Now, Trotter is the second on the depth chart behind Zach Bond. His dad is a local favorite, so he could push Bond for playing time early this season based on the fact, not only do the fans love him, but the fact that Trotter is playing well. Now, both Caden Ellis with a groin injury and Nate Landman with a quad injury, have been banged up this summer. And Bertrand is poised to step up as the next man in if either one that is, these two has a prolonged injury in this season. All right, that is going to wrap it up for our My Guys segment. Our My Guys.

Wouldn't it be Our Guys, Thomas? Can I print a retraction already? I'm going to retract that retract of the retraction. Oh, my goodness. Let's retract that. That should tell you how fried we are here trying to squeeze all this stuff into the beginning of the season. Speaking of the beginning of the season, the next time you hear our lovely, melodious voices will have actually looks like we might have played a football game uh well we

definitely will not be playing a football game no no no no no we'll be on our couch watching a football game but uh it is time all this is we've done all the prognosticating we can printed all the retractions we plan on we're printing um but now it's time to turn our attention to week one we're going to start talking about weekly matchups next week um hope we're going to also see if we can't squeeze in. If it's possible, you know, we want to, we want to try to schedule Dr. Edwin Porras to come on a little bit and just talk about some injuries. Some of these injuries we've been talking about in the podcast last couple weeks that have occurred. Even, you know, even the ones like Greenlaw and Milano, what will they be like when they get back? Hopefully we can squeeze that in. Either way, starting next week, we're going to actually talk about some real football.

Hopefully by then everybody has drafted and we can put this segment aside. also be dropping some IDP bets. As some of you know, that's been, is becoming more and more. My focus here for Fantasy Points. By the way, if you are not a FantasyPoint.com subscriber, please consider doing now. You can use the promo code score more for 10% off. And if you get on there and become a premium subscriber, we have a Discord channel dedicated to IDP. Right now, we're helping some folks draft. We're going to be in there really have a little. lead this weekend as probably the heaviest draft weekend of the year, helping folks draft. But then once we turn to the regular season, lots of start sick questions.

Anytime we see a player that looks like they might be on the up and up, we'll make sure to drop that in as well. So that's a great place to have one-on-one conversations with us. I mean, God forbid you'd want to have one-on-one conversation with either of us. Let's just want to hear Thomas Singh. he'll call you up and serenade you at night with TV show. Oh, so la mea. Oh, sorry.

I learned that on Bugs Bunny, speaking of TV shows, raising us as adults. All right, before we have to print more retractions, we're going to try and scoot out of here. Good luck. For those of you still drafting, this is my favorite. Indeed. This is my favorite draft week of the year

because finally all the cuts and all that jazz are over with, and now things are more settled. We can get a nice, clear picture of things. In the meantime, I hope everybody has a great Labor Day weekend. Thomas, take us out. Be well and be safe. What? What? You're welcome.