Fantasy Football Daily - IDP Corner: Overrated/Underrated

Episode Date: August 2, 2024

IDP Analysts Justin Varnes (@DownWithIDP) and Thomas Simons play Overrated/Underrated for IDP based on current ADP. Plus, notes from Training Camp and Injuries. #FFIDP Dynasty Fantasy Football Playlist - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-kupTuz42SeHflK6fqOqKTxwqB2s46M6&si=MlpKS9aY6Nqdwr8- Use promocode - SCOREMORE for 10% off your subscription. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DownWithIDP http://twitter.com/FantasyPTS FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What? Why are you shaking your head? You're welcome. Welcome to the IDP Corner Edition of the Fantasy Points Now podcast. My name is Justin Varns. I'm one of two IDP analysts over at FantasyPoint.com. You can follow me on Twitter at Down with IDP and with me as always from the West Coast, Mr. Thomas Simons.

Thomas, how you doing today? Your mission, Justin, should you choose to accept it, is to produce a Quality IDP Corner podcast for valued listeners. As always, should you or any of your IDP force be caught or killed, the secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This tape will self-destruct in five seconds. Good luck, Justin. Hi, Justin.

I still think we need to make this a listener thing where they send in requests for you. Guess what that was from? Yeah, exactly. I hope every listener understands what that's from. As old as we are. That's right, exactly. All right. So we're going to cover a couple different topics today.

We're going to go over some training camp notes, kind of pick up some from where we left off. Now that we've got a full week of training camp done, we've got to the Hall of Fame game coming up tomorrow. We're recording this on a Wednesday. So who does when this drops, but it should drop preferably tomorrow. So we'll get to see some football here pretty soon.

We're going to go over some injuries. We've had some. major injuries and some other off the radar injuries that you might not have been able to keep track of. We'll address those as well. Thomas always does a great job with injuries and some contract stuff or some suspension stuff, I should say. And then we're going to do a little game called overrated underrated, where each of us picks a handful of players. And we're going to tell you based on their ADP, whether we think they are overrated or underrated heading into the draft season. And then Thomas, you're ready?

can do an overrated, underrated on our podcast. That's right, which I definitely do not want to know. That's a scary thought. Yeah, very scary. So I'm going to get us started off with some camp notes. I want to talk a little, yeah, let's talk a little bit about Atlanta. So they've got a battle going on for linebacker, Troy Anderson, remember who was last year's original starter before he got injured, Nate Landman, one of the guys who took over,

and Caden Ellis, of course. they're in a full-blown competition. Both Nate Landman and Caden Ellis have run as the Every Down linebacker wearing the green dot so far in camp. But this is far from settled, it seems. Ellis seems to be getting the most starter reps from what I can tell via the Falcons beat riders. But to watch these three very carefully over the next couple week is one of our more important jobs because there's a good chance.

One of them will be an every down player. there might be a rotation between the other two. And if you're drafting tonight, I think my money is on Cade Nellis to get the majority of the reps. Troy Anderson has worn the green dot a good amount and says he's going to wear it. But really, it's really hard to trust any of these three yet. But we believe that at least one, if not two of these, will come out to become fantasy relevant.

And the other note there from Atlanta is speaking of battles, Richie Grant, safety Richie Grant. He looks to be earning his starting safety job back after 2023 Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen benched him partway through the season for DeMarco Hellams. It does look like Grant is at least on track to maintain that or regain his starting position there next to Jesse Bates. Let's keep with safeties. Let's move over to Buffalo. After years of Jordan Poyer and Micahide, the safeties in Buffaloes are certainly swimming, I think,

in more murky waters now. Cole Bishop, a young player, really has been impressing in camp, particularly while their veteran and presumed starter, Mike Edwards, is dealing with a hamstring injury. But just earlier argues yesterday, Bisham suffered an arm injury. And there wasn't, there's really not much out on it yet. So we're waiting to see what happens with this arm injury. I do know that the team went out, they signed a few vets, including Kareem Jackson. Hopefully, Bishop is okay as he was really bullet training his way on to a starting gig. So watch the, these safeties in Buffalo over the next week or so. One more note on safety, this is in Cincinnati. The Biggles are trying to figure out who they should go with next to starter Gino Stone,

whether they go experience or youth. This is the big question. The battle between Jordan Battle and veteran von Bell, this is really an important. important battle because it'll be tough to enter uh it'll be tough to draft either right now um so we'll have to see what happens with this just watch that carefully uh my money is on jordan battle but the experience of von bell really has to weigh heavily here do they want the the speed and athleticism of battle or do they want the you know particularly on the backside of the defense somebody who was a little bit more uh experience um uh let's say um And then we got, what are you trying to say, Thomas?

No, I was just making mental notes of something for myself. So move on. Okay, got you. Just making sure. I'm just one one. Okay. That really is nothing new at all. What happens when you get senile?

That's right. Speaking of experience, right? You've got experience. So let's talk about Philly's Eagle situation, Philly's linebacker situation. Zach Bond really has been. gobbling up most of the first team reps next to every down linebacker Devin White. This puts Nkobi Dean in a situation where he's going to have an uphill battle to get that job back.

And then one other thing I want to mention, I want to throw in a Dynasty Watch or Deep League Sleeper note here. Steelers beat Mark Koboli reports that rookie linebacker Peyton Wilson, he was drafted 98th overall. He's been a standout in camp. I bring that up because remember that he only has a Landon Rock. Roberts between him and a starting job next to Patrick Queen. So Peyton Wilson is somebody to keep an eye on it in a dynasty league. Somebody we should certainly be looking at. We're looking for clear paths to snaps.

And if Wilson continues to impress, he doesn't have some elite linebacker in front of him. And they have been struggling at the linebacker position for years here in Pittsburgh. And obviously that's why they went out and got Patrick, Queen, but Peyton Wilson might have a more clear path to starting snaps here sooner than we might have thought. And then we're going to move on here in just a second and go over some injuries. Thomas is going to talk about and some suspensions.

But we're going to step aside just for a second for a quick commercial break. Okay, Thomas, why don't you lead us into some of these? We have a couple of serious season ending or questioning possibly season ending injuries, some public list updates. And I know a few suspensions as well. Yeah, you had mentioned Cole Bishop and Mike Edwards on Buffalo. We'll watch that and updated in future podcasts. Defensive N, Sam Williams on Dallas, tore his ACL.

He's on IR and done for the season. Same can be said for defensive end, Samson Abukam from Indianapolis, who tore his Achilles. Defensive tackle, Christian Barmore on New England was diagnosed with blood clots and is out indefinitely, and it sounds like it's going to be a while before he returns. Cornerback Mackay Blackman on Minnesota tour his ACL, and he's on IR, likely done for the season. Defensive N. Hassan Reddick on the New York Jets has not reported to camp. He's holding out for a contract, and I'll talk more about that in the overrated, underrated section. Now, the PUP list

currently, on August 27th, when the rosters are cut down, PUP players have to either move to the active roster or move to the in-season PUP list, which will shut down at least four or six games for the start of the season. Currently on the list, defensive end, DJ Woonham from Carolina. He underwent surgery and left quadriceps back in December. Defensive end Charles Omanahue from Kansas City tore his ACL in the AFC championship game had surgery in February and is likely starting the season on PUP or temporary IR. Defensive tackle Derek Nandi, excuse me, on Kansas City injured his triceps in the wild card playoff game back in mid-January. Defensive tackle, Dalvin Tomlinson and Cleveland underwent successful surgery on his right knee this past week. Team is hoping he'll be ready for the start of the season. Defensive tackle DJ Reeder from Detroit Tours Quad in 2023 Week 15, questionable for the start of the season.

Defensive tackle Eric Armstead, Armstead, Jacksonville, offseason knee surgery. Linebacker Drew Sanders on Denver tore his Achilles likely out until late in 2024. Linebacker Jalen Phillips, Miami tore his Achilles in 2023, Week 12, may not be ready for the of the season. His bookend edge rushing buddy on Miami Bradley Chubb tore his ACL in week 20 in week 17 of 2023 and he may not be ready to start the season. So Miami could be without their two edge rushing bookend linebackers. Linebacker gray, uh, Dre Greenlawn, San Francisco, tore his ACL in Super Bowl. I don't know if you remember that when he was jumping up and down on the sideline to celebrate tore his ACL. He's questionable for the start.

of the season. Rookie cornerback T.J. Tampa from Baltimore likely failed a conditioning test, but it were really unknown as to why they put him on PUP. Sounds like it's going to be a short stay for him. And you had mentioned safety Taloa Hufanga from San Francisco towards ACL last year in week 11. It's to, we have to watch his status as we move forward. Now, the non-football injury list, the NFI list, rookie linebacker, Idisa Isaac from Baltimore. Baltimore, hamstring injury back in May, cornerback Greg Newsom on the second on Cleveland, hamstring issue. Safety, Justin Reed on Kansas Sea has a quad injury. Safety, Jalen Mills on the New York Giants. He has an undisclosed injury. Now, he was in competition for the third safety, so he needs to

get out on the field pretty soon, or he's going to be a backup in Macy, limited time to start the season. Rookie safety, Cooper DeGine on Philadelphia hamstring injury. He's expected to miss three weeks of training camp. Now, you had mentioned suspensions. There's three of them I want to bring to everybody's. Most of you probably know about this, but Danico Autry, the defensive tackle for Houston was suspended six games for violating the policy and performance enhancing drugs.

Also a violation for Peds was linebacker Arden Key from Tennessee. He was scheduled to be or was currently the starting right outside lineback. Well, he suspended six games. Cornerbacks Cameron Sutton on Pittsburgh was suspended eight games for violating the personal conduct policy. And that's it for the injuries and suspensions and whatever else I could think of. Yeah, thanks, Thomas. The only thing I want to add on those suspensions is just to keep track of any appeals. For example, some of those six game suspensions might get, you know,

Reduced a four or two. Yeah. Yeah, but either way, you're definitely not starting the season with these three guys. No. So something to certainly keep an eye on. But if it turns out... One footnote about what you just mentioned is the fact that these guys can practice during the summer leading up to the season. But once the season starts, however many games are suspended, they have to leave the facility and can't return until the suspension is fulfilled.

Yeah, yeah, good point. All right. Let's move on to our overrated, underrated game here, where each of us have picked a handful of players that we think are overrated or underrated. Now, what we're using for this is the IDP guys have a great resource. As we all know, those of us who play IDP, it is really difficult to find good ADP data out there.

It's just because we have so few leagues that play it. if we if we just use regular aggregated data it's it's real to the point where you know thomas and i stopped using it several years ago it just it was just so unreliable and you have and you have so many of those few idp leagues you have so many variables with scoring that it's impossible to to get a consistent or a base foundation for scoring to to base the adp yeah absolutely so uh josh raymer and everybody over there at IDP, IDP guys have graciously spread this information out to most of the IDP content users out there. This has really been a huge help.

So we're going to use this as our ADP reference for these conversations. I'm going to get us started. I'm going to talk about Miami linebacker David Long. Remember, there's a cornerback named David Long as well. To me, I think he's underrated. He was just activated off the PUP list, speaking of PUP lists, so he is now practicing and healthy. He led the dolphins in tackles last season, and this season he's got a much easier system to play in. Last year, the dolphins, particularly their linebackers, some of their secondary two, they really struggled to take in the Vic Fangio system.

Fanjo who was throwing lots of stuff out of him. They seem to be not handling it all that well. David Long being one of them. He hung in there pretty well, though. But this is, would they have a new scheme now, new defensive coordinator, and Long has been one of the outspoken voices about how much easier or more natural this has been for him. So that alone is a good sign.

He's coming in as the 66th linebacker to get drafted, which basically means he's not being drafted in most leagues. This guy has Jordan Brooks next to him, and that's basically it. I mean, he's definitely going to get a ton of snaps this season. I actually like Long a little bit better than Jordan Brooks. So yes, he did struggle in coverage last season, as did Brooks. But as I'd said, the entire defense kind of struggled under Fangio. So I'm hoping he'll bounce back. But even, you know, to me, I think of David Long as more of an LB3. If you can get him now, is an LB4 or an LB5. To me, that's a steal because I just think his role and the amount of snaps he's going to get,

as long as he stays healthy, just the volume alone will get him to where he's a reliable LB3. There's a chance he'll be even more than that. You know, you mentioned Jordan Brooks in playing next to Long. Long is coming from Tennessee, and he's familiar with the 3-4 defense in a system. That's one of the reasons why he's adjusted to us and likes it so much. Brooks is coming from Seattle, and they've played more of a four-three. So it's going to be interesting to see how Brooks adjust to a new system that he has never played in, at least in the NFL.

So I'm going to talk about Hassan Redick again. And as I told you earlier, he's holding out for a bigger contract. So I'm going to give you an overrated on Reddick. And the reason being is that every day he holds. out, his fines get bigger and bigger, his wallet gets thinner and thinner. Yet, what is more concerning here is the missed conditioning time. Now, players who hold out tend to be more injury-prone more often than not as they push too hard to get back into game shape. Well, Reddick is currently on the did-not report list. Meanwhile, Michael Clemens and Will MacDonald IV are working at the right

defensive end spot. Now, with an ADP around 23 and a half for Redick overall, for IDPs and possible conditioning issues on the horizon. I think Reddick is a prime candidate for disappointment for fantasy owners. I think that's a great call. Even if he were in great shape and already practicing, it's important to point out that in 2022, he had 16 sacks, five force fumbles. He was the man in Philadelphia.

you. Before that, he was more of an 11 to 12 sack guy. And last year, he played all 17 games and had 11 sacks. And obviously 11 sacks is good. We're not saying that. But if you look at what I like to call the back of his baseball card, he's only had that one kind of blow up season. And we might still be drafting him based off of that production. And then, as you said, Thomas, once you start factoring in the common issues historically, the common issues we see. see with players who hold out. We're, you know,

we, we've already seen at the beginning of camp. Notice how many soft tissue injuries, how many injuries are happening at the very beginning of camp. Uh, because as they say, there really is no such thing. There's no thing like being in football shape.

There's no gym that can replicate that. And if you expedite, if you expedite your, your training and, and your conditioning, you end up pushing too hard and you end up making it worse. And it just, the probability of error or probability for injury is getting higher and higher every day he holds out.

All right. I'm going to talk about a linebacker who I think is a little bit overrated and there's a very important reason why we're going to discuss this on the other side of the break. We're going to take a quick second and pause for some for some commercials. All right. Let's talk about E.J. Speed, a Colts linebacker. To me, he's a little. bit overrated and that's because speed actually has some competition with rookie jalen carlies remember carlies was a was a fascinating defensive back prospect uh Colts drafted him and immediately put him in the linebacker room uh now let's set aside for a second that that Carle's is actually dealing with a sore hip at the moment um that he that just recently popped up so let's look at the season long view here uh Carly's name is keeps coming up not only with coaches but also beat

writers. Remember, as I said, he's a converted safety, who's been flying around and making a lot of plays so far in camp. One of our subscribers actually reached out to me on Twitter and brought this to my attention that he found a note from Colts insider Joel Erickson that they are trying out some alignments with Carleys at the Will and then E.J. Speed at the Sam. So it's highly unlikely that Carleys will supplant speed in terms of the alignment, but just the fact that they're trying to get Carly's on the field a little more, and it's coming at least alignment-wise at the expense of speed. I think this says something because although speed has excelled in defending the run, and Carleys is obviously probably at this point too slight to stand up to consistent pounding

there in the middle of the defense, remember that Speed's weakness last year was in coverage. He did not fare well in coverage. So that's something obviously Carly's a DB would excel in. So So does speed start off, to start coming off the field and passing situations? If so, he's hard to draft as an LB2, which is basically where he's going now. He's going ahead of Matt Milano. He's going ahead of Jordan Hicks, DeMario Davis. These are all veterans with fairly high chances of playing every down. I still, we both, still really like EJ speed.

But that just gives me a little bit of a pause because we've seen it over and over and over again as defenses try to get more defenders on the field who can, who can hang in pass coverage. If this is a weakness of speeds and it's, I mean, they drafted Carly's highly and this is likely the role they see him in is getting on the field and passing or dime situations. It's going to affect speed,

obviously more than it would affect Sayy or Franklin. You know, you mentioned an undersized Carleys. Well, he has the same size as speeds. They're both around 227 and they're ones at 6'3 and the other 6 foot 4. So if Carly's is a little undersized, well, so is speed. So I totally agree with you on that.

It's going to be interesting to see how this preseason and training camp unfolds and who does what and who steps up and takes over the starting position. I'm going to move over to Pittsburgh and I'm going to talk about Alex Highsmith. I'm looking at him as overrated. Now, Highsmith will start it right outside lineback. or no question. He is a solid edge rusher and capable of posting double-digit sacks like he did in

2022. The problem I have is that his ADP is way too high and he's too inconsistent to achieve that or be given that ADP. And if you look at his four seasons in the NFL, he had

14 and a half sacks in 2020, but he posted just 15 total sacks in his his three other seasons combined. Now, second year linebacker, Nick Herbig, pushed him for serious playing time last year and could do so again in 2024. Now, again, Highsmith is a decent linebacker in a big play scoring league, but only in big play scoring league. He is not a top 40 IDP, even in the big play scoring league. So you have to take that with a grain of salt and be very leery of Highsmith.

Yeah, I think that's a great point. I'm going to talk about another linebacker here. This one's underrated, and that's Tyrell Dodson. He had a breakout season last year filling in for the injured Matt Milano when he was in Buffalo. He actually ended up being one of the highest graded linebackers for PFF last year. And he really did look like he turned a corner from his previous few seasons. Now he's over there in Seattle, and not only does he seem to have a starting role locked up, he might be there every down linebacker, as he's more suited for the middle where

as Jerome Baker seems to thrive better in space. Either way, I'm expecting both of these linebackers to receive a ton of snaps. That's a lot of tackles to be collected for somebody who's being drafted as an LB4 or an LB5. I know there's an uncertainty there, seeing as how he's basically had one half of a good season so far, and now he's on a new team. But it really doesn't look like anyone is standing in his way for snaps. And as we know, volume is the key for linebacker tackles. You know, you bring up a great point in that Dotson could be a three-down linebacker. There is a possibility Jerome Baker wears the green dot, but Dotson is a, he's a sleeper. He flies under the radar, and a lot of people just overlook him because of going to a new team,

and he wasn't a starter originally in Buffalo, but as you mentioned, he graded out really high when he stepped into the starting linebacker, linebacker position for Buffalo when Matt Milano went down. So, yes, I totally agree with you on that one. Also, the fact is he's playing in a new three-four defensive system, which we talked about in last week's podcast. This is a system that he could adjust to extremely quickly and extremely well, and I think he will thrive in a Seattle defense.

Now, I'm going to talk about Jalen Petrie from Houston. I think he's underrated. This sounds weird, I know, but Petri missed two games last year, and his fantasy stats were half of what he had in his rookie season. Now, much of this is attributed to the suffering of a bruised lung on opening day last year, and then he missed two games after that. When he returned, his play was tentative at best, and his fantasy production was down. The team used them in, you know, they were leery of his injury. and they tried to protect him from that. And so his responsibilities and duties changed.

He's a year removed from the injury, and I feel strongly that his mind is in a good place heading into training camp and into the 2024 season. He could easily return to his rookie season form and be a top 5 dB for fantasy owners. Even if he does struggle a little bit, he can still give you a top 10 fantasy production. And I think he's at this current pace

an ADP ranking, he is totally underrated compared to what experts are predicting him for. Yeah, and I think this is a good one. Last year, he was one of my overrated, and just because it's impossible to put up the kind of stats he did two years ago. So he was being drafted as the number one safety off the board based off of a lot of luck and extra snaps, which happened for the Texans. This is, and then, you know, so of course, if he's the first guy off the board and he puts up solid numbers, numbers we expected. Thomas and I expected, he had a good season, but he's going to disappoint you if you took him, if he has 101 and he ends up being the eighth best running back.

You're probably disappointed and you're going to feel somehow earned. I totally agree now. So funny because now Petrae is flipped around and is underrated. I also like the fact that he is getting some reps up at the slot position. Anytime we can get a defender near the line of scrimmage at times, that can be a very good thing for us, just gives us more chances for tackle. So I totally agree.

And it's great having this ADP stuff to look at. I think it's actually the IDP show who gave us this, not IDP guys, which is another awesome site IDP guys. this is IDP show, Josh Raymer and everybody over there doing great work. So as you're mentioning ADP, I want to make sure I got that cleared up because this really does help you a lot. It might be that someone like Petre, you can wait a little bit longer than you might think and you might be able to get them around later, which is super important because I do think

he could be a top five guy, just as you mentioned. And you mentioned the IDP show and they do a great job with the information that they distribute to folks. And you're talking of Petrie last year as an overrated. You nailed it and it really put the nail in the coffin when he got that bruised lung on opening day. Yeah, that certainly didn't help, right? All right. So let's talk about another safety who I think is underrated and that's the Browns Grant Delpit.

In a world where two high safeties, interchangeable safeties, this is becoming more and more the shell that we're seeing a lot of these left-right safeties in the Fangio scheme, you know, that really creates a higher level of, of inconsistency from the safeties, which is something we're used to with cornerbacks, but it has become increasingly frustrated at the safety position. That said, Delpit has been somebody who really excelled last year in a box-heavy role for the Browns. And remember, this is one of the best defenses in the league. So, and this is, you know, he really excelled all the way through right until the time he got injured.

Before he got injured, he posted six or more tackles in nine of his 13 games and at least four tackles in every game but one. So it's basically a high floor posted eight tackles a couple times, ten tackles. To me, his role and his production make him one of the more reliable safeties to draft this season. And currently right now, using the IDP shows, ADP stuff, he's being drafted as a DB3, which to me is ludicrous. I mean, he's going to be 26 this year. It seems to be in his prime.

And as I said before, he's thriving in this defense. To me, this is a solid DB2, if not a DB1 based on his role, his talent, same scheme, etc. The consistency is just too high to wait that long to pick up. I'm going to take us down to the end of the road here with Ivan Pace Jr. on Minnesota. I think he's underrated. With the departure of Eric Kendricks, Pace is now slotted as the starting right inside linebacker. And he currently is looking like he's going to be the green dot wearer for Minnesota when he starts the season. Now, don't misunderstand that I'm not touting him as a linebacker one, but he could easily be a top 25 fantasy linebacker in 2024.

he's probably being ranked somewhere around the somewhere in the mid-30s amongst linebackers. And if he gets the green dot duties, his playing time will be superior to any of the other Viking inside linebackers. And that will boost his fantasy value tremendously. Now, you have to consider who the Vikings have at their inside linebacker spots. They have Blake Cashman, Brian Asamoa from rookie season last year. They've got Drabriel Cox on the team. They have Kamu Grugier Hill as his backup, and they have a free agent Dallas Gant as a backup as well.

So Pace doesn't really have a lot of competition. He should easily hold down that starting Rinside Linebacker spot and wear the green dot. And that is what's going to boost his fantasy value and make him more valuable than what we're looking at right now. Yeah, so plenty of value here to be found at a few that you might want to avoid as we start careening toward draft season and our drafts start picking up. These are things hopefully between a combination of the injuries you're paying attention to, some of these training camp notes that we're picking up from beatwriters. And obviously, as we start to get more and more reliable ADP data, we can make some decisions, particularly when it gets to the IDP section of our draft.

So hopefully you've found this informative. We're going to be back next week with a similar training camp and we'll actually get to see some football, some real actual padded football. So we'll have plenty of notes about that. We'll keep you up at all injuries, suspensions, PUP activations. Hopefully that'll go in our favor. We'll do some more stuff like this next week.

Thank you all so much for listening. Remember you can follow me on Twitter at Down with IDP. And then don't forget, please, if you're a fantasy point subscriber, please make sure to visit Discord and check in with the IDP channel. We just help one of our users complete a trade for this exact player. Ivan Pace, we got a deal worked out with him. So happy to help you all with your individual trades.

Happy to help you all with drafts as they get closer and even dynasty stuff. So feel free to reach out there. I think that's going to wrap it up for us, Thomas. You want to take us out? Be well and be safe. What? What? Why are you shaking your head?

You're welcome.