Fantasy Football Daily - IDP Corner: Training Camp Notes

Episode Date: July 26, 2024

IDP Analysts Justin Varnes and Tom Simons break down scheme changes, position battles, and position switches in training camps that affect the IDP Landscape.  #FFIDP Dynasty Fantasy Football Playlist - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-kupTuz42SeHflK6fqOqKTxwqB2s46M6&si=MlpKS9aY6Nqdwr8- Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DownWithIDP http://twitter.com/FantasyPTS FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What? Why are you shaking your head? You're welcome. Welcome to the IDP Corner edition of the Fantasy Points Now podcast. You're listening to the first edition of IDP Corner for the 24-25 football season. My name is Justin Varns. You can follow me on Twitter at Down with IDP and with me as always on a very early morning over there in Seattle's. Mr. Thomas, Simon's, Thomas.

Welcome. How you doing? A camping we will go A camping we will go Ohio with the dairy Oh camping we will go Hey is that a pup tent Are you just happy to see me?

I'm going to start asking our viewers Our listeners to submit requests For whatever the hell you're going to do For your entry every Do you take your request? It's that time of year again How are you doing? I'm doing Justin

I'm doing very well Starting to try and keep track of all the Training Camp activity lots of stuff going on. People are already starting some drafts. So we have a lot to get into. Mainly we're going to be focusing on training camp observations and anything else that me or Thomas think might be relevant to IDP. Could be defensive scheme things we're looking at. Remember, we've got a lot of new defensive coordinators, a lot of new systems to install. And a lot of that's going to start taking shape over these next couple of weeks until we start to get to a preseason game

where we can lay our eyes on some actual football. Before we do, we do it, we'll be able to, dive into those. I just wanted to remind everybody that everything we're going to talk about today or most of the things we're going to talk about today. This is all just smoke. There is no fire. We're going to talk about people who are playing in certain positions that are being reported at camp. That doesn't mean that's what's going to happen. What we're really looking for here is to see if any of these things gain traction over the next couple of weeks. So don't make any moves based on two or three days of camp practices, especially with no pads. on. The goal really here is to file these things away. And if we see a little bit more traction going into these early preseason games, then you may be a week or two ahead of some of your competitors

come draft time to know how solid some of these moves may or may not be, or how some of these rookies or second year players may actually be climbing the depth chart ladder or maybe not. Maybe they just had a couple of good days of training camp and then they got moved back down. That stuff happens. It's all well too volatile to rely on, but we're trying to get a little bit ahead of the curve so that you can press mash on that draft button at the right spot when it is your time to draft. Indeed. Just smoking mirrors at the moment. So we're going to get things started off. I want to talk about a couple of Brown's IDPs, cornerback Greg Newsom, defensive tackle, Dalvin Tomlinson. They both had minor procedures. Newsom is supposed to be ready for the season

opener. Tomlinson is a little less likely, but these are people to keep track of. Newsom, you might play as some CB heavy leagues. Dalvin Tomlinson is someone who certainly you could use in defensive tackle leagues, although he's obviously he's older now. He's not producing quite at the same level, but these are things to pay attention to as we move closer to week one to see if both of these players are not only ready to come off the pup list, but also are they going to start week one full steam or they got to slowly be worked into the lineup. These are things we're being paying attention to.

I'm going to hit the Seahawks defensive scheme right now. New coach, new D.C. Mike McDonald is bringing his brand of Raven football to Seattle. And it's a complete change from what Pete Carroll did in his days as head coach. It's a complicated system that offenses see as it. being a very simplistic yet confusing look. The Seahawks are with Aidan Dard, Dard, with Aidan Dard as their new D.C., they are using a system that is very basic.

It's either a 4-3 or 3-4, and when they go into the huddle, they call either one of those two plays, and then they add a word or two, and each of those words that they add affects a certain player on that. that defense. So if they go into the huddle and they, they yell out Omaha, like Peyton Manning used to do, then they're going to go 4-3 Omaha. Well, Omaha means a certain thing to particular players on that defense, one of those or two or three of those 11 players. And it could affect the defensive end saying, okay, it's a 4-3, but on Omaha, you're going to drop back. And the linebacker on the outside is supposed to rush. So offenses are going to see the same defense, but have no idea how

these guys are going to shift. And it affects not just the defensive linemen and the linebackers, but it affects the cornerbacks as well. In the peak Carroll era, the cornerbacks like Richard Sherman would stay on the left side of the field the entire game. He never went to the right side. Well, in this system, the cornerbacks will be moving all over the field, depending on the matchup, depending on the opposing team's wide receivers, and depending on what type of the scheme they're going to use. Now, it is very complicated in that, okay, you're going to learn the very basic 4-3 or 3-4 defense and what your responsibility is, but then as a defensive end, these words that we add to the call is going to change your assignment and your responsibility,

and you need to know what to do when that happens. And you've got players, you know, a lot of the rookies like Byron Murphy and Tyrese Knight, these guys are coming in. Their heads are spinning because there's just so much to digest. And as you start digesting this and taking it in, they keep adding to the playlist. And it gets bigger and bigger and bigger the playbook. So you're going to find that early on the Seahawks defense is going to be, it's not going to be the Ravens type defense right out of the gate. but I'm telling you that teams are really going to struggle against the Seahawks

because they are going to be a very complicated system that they you think you know what there's going on and then you call a play at the or an audible at the line of scrimmage and then you snap the ball and realize oh that's a mistake so this is going to go on for a while but early on as they start adjusting to how to to play in this new scheme you're going to find the Seahawks become a top five defense now Seattle one problem they have right now is their depth that linebacker. I'll go into it a little bit later, but that's one area during the summer that you need to really pay attention to. And I'll talk about that in another one or two mentions in our near future. All right, we're going to take a

quick pause to hear a word from our sponsor. Yeah, I'm excited to see this new Seahawks defense. You know, we've talked a lot about the Vic Van Gio style defense and one of the things, one of its key elements is, you know, pre-snap, disguise, post-snap motion. As soon as the, you know, the quarterback's looking at one thing, you know, usually they're looking at, you know. The safeties and, yeah, to see where the safeties are. And those are very big key elements when you have an offensive quarterback looking at the defense. They want to see where the safety is and that kind of tips them off to what the rest is happening. And then they look at the edge rushers and so on.

forth. And so what that means for for IDP purposes, for fantasy purposes, and also for, you know, this also really affects how you will hear some pundits talk about how certain quarterbacks or offenses do against zone or against too high and all that sort of stuff is that these numbers are starting to get so jumbled that you can't, you can no longer say, well, so and so excels during, you know, facing, you know, single high safeties. And this team runs X amount of of single high. Every week this stuff is changing, every quarter, every play. So it's harder and harder to rely on, oh, so-and-so is a great zone defender. So he's going to thrive in this role. Obviously, to a certain extent, that holds true. And there are several defenses still being run

defensive schemes where that absolutely holds true. But this Baltimore tree, in specific, you know, as we're talking about Seattle, this is one of those ones where almost, you know, almost every every play, there's something different happening. So how quickly can these young players adjust to that? We saw in Denver last year where you install a more complicated defense. And then what happens is it takes a defense sometimes a while to get going. Denver's defense was a completely different animal in the second half of the season. And all that changed was the players finally got to a, they got to a point where they knew the defense well enough, they moved quicker, they reacted quicker,

and then all of a sudden, Vance Joseph's defense started thriving. That very well could happen here in Seattle. And the big point I want to make is that Seattle's run defense has been atrocious the last several years, and that is a major factor in how players like Bobby Wagner and Jordan Brooks were putting up massive, massive tackle numbers because they were staying on the field.

field longer. Teams were running the ball more and they were tearing through their defensive lines. So those linebacker tackle numbers were inflated. Now, I know you're going to talk a little bit about Bobby Wagner's forecast here in the future. But as we're watching the Seattle defense and some of these other new defenses, we're going to see some things shift. Some players who might normally put up stats in an old defense that we expected might not be there this year. And then like you said, how quickly can this Seahawks defense turn around to where they are a top five, top 10 unit? It might not be right out of the gate, but don't give up on them yet. Yeah, and you bring up a very valid point in that, you know, with Bobby Wagner and Jordan Brooks, these two were released.

They were let go and the new regime has come in and pretty much revamped at this defense. Now, they did keep Big Cat Williams on the defensive line in Draymond Jones, and they're adding, they, you know, they have Jaron Reed now in there, and they have Byron Murphy, who's a beast. This kid's going to be unbelievable. But we'll talk about that in future podcasts. But the point I'm making here is that you bring up a huge point in that while the defense has changed and you have to adjust to a new scheme, they've brought in all these new players that are familiar with that type of scheme. So not only do they change the scheme and everybody has to adjust to it, but they're bringing in players who are aware of how this

runs, so it'll help them transition smoother and quicker. Yeah, absolutely. I want to talk about a couple of defenders who are sneaking in some nickel reps early in training camp. Again, training camp is a place to try lots of things to, you know, really put your defense through the paces, get comfortable with what you have and don't have. So these things don't necessarily mean anything yet. We just want to keep an eye on them. Number one is down in Houston. Jalen Petre, he has been getting some reps at the nickel position. And when he moves from his traditional safety position up to the nickel, up to the slot,

then it's usually Eric Murray coming in veteran Eric Murray to play the other safety slot. They're also working in rookie Kalin Bullock as well. So how often does that happen? Remember, they do have Desmond King, who's probably still slated to be their starting nickel. But let's see how many. reps Petrae gets in this during the preseason. There's actually a solid chance that he's going to get zero reps. And this is just, they're just seeing what Jalen can do.

And they might move him in there from time to time. But it's something we want to keep it on because Desmond King is a cornerback that gets drafted heavily because of his slot usage. And Jalen Petrie possibly moving into the slot more often could be something that that could help or hurt his, his fantasy value. Another option where we're seeing that is in Pittsburgh. Slot corner Cam Sutton, he's been suspended for the first eight games, I think, might be six, but I think it's eight. So they're trying to figure out what to do with the slot.

One of the things they've been doing is Deshaun Elliott, who came over from Cleveland. Deshaun is getting reps now in the slot as the big nickel. And when he moves up to the slot, it's usually DeMonte KZ who moves into the strong safety position there. So we're going to be watching Deshaun Elliott and we're going to be watching Jalen Petra as well as Desmond King. Let's see how all that shakes out and whether or not that's going to affect the fantasy landscape for some slot corners and some safeties. I'm going to stay on Houston with DeNeil Hunter and his move to the Texans. He'll join Will Anderson Jr. as a bookend edge rusher. Now, with the addition of DeNico Autry inside, and the Texans,

working from a four-three-based defense, they're shifting from the three-four mindset to a four-three, and Hunter is going to be playing off the edge. Now, this is in his nine-year, I think it was two, yes, eight or ninth year, this is his 10th year. It's all been with Minnesota, and he's adjusted from a four-three to a three-four while he was with the Vikings. Last year, he went to a three-four and had 16 and a half sacks. But you also have to realize that even as a-four, he's adjusted from a four-three-four while he was with the Vikings. But you also have to realize that even as a 4-3 defense event for the Vikings, he was a double-digit sack guy. He had double-digit sacks in, I believe it was five of his last seven seasons with the Vikings.

So you add him to a Will Anderson, and you put DeNico Autry in with Foli Fadakasi in the middle. And you've got a defense now that can put up some numbers as far as sacks and big-scoring, big play scoring league. So you want to pay attention to that, especially early on. One thing that we've talked about in the past is that in the preseason, it's really hard to gauge how teams are going to play their players because of the fact that they don't use their starters a lot. But there's only three games this year. And they get almost two weeks between the last game and the regular season start.

So you're going to find that some of these players will see playing time early on. especially with like half the league changing their defensive coordinators and their coaching staffs, you're going to find that these teams are going to try and implement these new schemes and new things as early as possible. So these players will see playing time during the preseason. Yeah, and I've got some thoughts on Will Anderson that I'll share a little bit later in the podcast. Speaking of all these potential pass rushing sacks, Every year I try to keep track of how we're doing on tackles and sacks across the league. One of the cool things about a timed sport like this is that our numbers pretty much stay within a certain range.

There's only so many plays that an offense can run. Obviously, we have these are timed events. So we have a pretty consistent range as to how many plays get run, how many tackles, you know, a team and a league overall. can amass, but I still like tracking it. I've been tracking it ever since 2011. Obviously, we've seen 10 to 15% increase in numbers ever since the league switched to a 17 game season back in 2021. But I want to point out the number that really stuck out to me is that we normally hover around 1,200 to 1,300 sacks over an NFL season. Two years ago was 1297, 1244 before that.

So we've had two 17 game seasons, both, you know, 1250, 1297, never more than 1297, as you might imagine with the 16 game season. Last year, we had 1410 sacks. Wow. So that's a huge number. We had several teams get into the 50 sack range. We had one, two, three, four, five teams get at least 50 sacks. Usually that's only one or two teams.

So does this trend continue or is this something that, you know, kind of, you know, we have outliers all the time, of course. So this might easily come back to in the 1250 to 1,300 range. If that happens, if we jump back to, let's say, 1,300, that means there's 100 sacks that we might be expecting that won't be there this year. So something to keep an eye on. We might have seen some inflated sacks. numbers last year, will we see a kind of regression to the mean or does this have to do with the change in defensive scheme, part of which both myself, but mainly Thomas kind of drove earlier with what's going on with these Baltimore tree. We're seeing a lot of Baltimore tree,

defensive coordinators throughout the league and obviously Fangio tree as well. Could we see this ushering in a new era where we have inflated sack rates? We won't know yet, but again, another thing to keep your eye on. A couple of things that touch you on here in regards to what you just mentioned. You know, a lot of teams are going to two linebackers sets, which means that they're using more four and five defensive linemen with edge rushers on both sides of the ball. So you're getting a lot more pressure on the quarterback. Now, in 2023, there were 247 players that recorded an I&T,

and there was 400 players who had half a sack or more. So it's easier to count on a sack than it is I&Ts, because I&Ts, let's be honest, it's a crapshoot. You just, you know, Duran Blan has 10 one year and two the next or won the next. So figuring out who's going to give you I&Ts is really difficult, even if there is close to 250 of them during the players during the season. 400 players getting at least half a sack, that's pretty high up there and when you consider there's 1410 sacks.

So, yes, you're going to find that a lot of teams are going to be playing more two linebacker sets. They're going to bring a lot more pressure on the edge, which will inflate those numbers. Now, you had mentioned I'm going to talk about Bobby Wagner. Well, does Bobby Wagner still have enough in the tank for another productive season? Washington is going with a two-linebacker scheme, like I just mentioned. They're one of the teams that will be doing this, and he'll pair. up with Frankie Louvre and Jammin Davis is the odd man out on the depth chart for playing time at this point in time. But Bobby Wagner is a 100 tackle type guy. So he's not going to be a big play

scoring guy for you, but if you have a tackle heavy league, Bobby Wagner is going to be the man in Washington, even with Louvo playing next to him. It's only going to be two of them. They're not going to be playing a lot of three linebacker sets. They'll be playing more. nickel and dime packages and bringing in an extra edge rusher. But Wagner, let me ask you, Justin, do you think Bobby Wagner is pretty much close to the end of his career or do you think he can be productive? It's so hard to tell, you know, what we thought of 10 years ago of a 34, 35, you know, 36-year-old player was that, you know, it was basically, you know, the end of it.

but with modern medicine the way it is, and by taking care of their bodies way better, you know, we've got 37-year-old linemen out there still getting it done. So obviously age is the major factor. I'll tell you that PFF still really liked him last year for what that's worth. He still looked good to the naked eye. Obviously put up massive tackle numbers. So there's nothing about it last year,

except that I did feel like, he slowed down toward the end of the season. I mean, a lot of people do, so that's not necessarily, that's not the death knell for him. The fact that Seattle let him go, you know, this is now his, if you count him leaving Seattle and then coming back to Seattle as kind of two teams, right, this is going to be his fourth team in four years.

And to me, that says something that says the, I always think teams know what they have most of the time, right? We like to point out when they don't know what they have and make fun of them. Aha, this guy was great and you guys passed on them. But more often than not, you know, when teams start letting go of players, it's because on a day-to-day minute-by-minute basis, they see what's going on. So it is possible that Bobby Wagner is slowing down. You know, yeah, the fact that, first of all, to touch on what you talked about with the fact that the Seahawks let them go,

They let them go because they've got a brand new coaching staff, and they want to go in a different direction with this defense, and it's a lot more complicated, and they need linebackers who can cover, and that's why they went after Terrell Dotson and Jerome Baker, which I'll mention in a minute, whereas Bobby Wagner struggled in coverage. So even though he'll be a three-down linebacker for the commanders,

he's definitely not somebody that would fit into the Seahawks new scheme. So that's the reason why they let him go. Now, if you look at his long extended career, every year he's been in the NFL, he's had 100 or more total tackles except for his third season when he had 97. And he only played 11 games that year. So if he had played close to a full season in 2014, every season he's been in the league, 12 years, he would be over 100 plus total tackles. Yeah.

Speaking of this, I, you know, I do IDP prop bets, defensive player prop bets. I put out an article on fantasy points a couple days ago with some of my favorite futures props. And I, just like last year, I'm going to IDP hell for this. But last year, I bet against Aaron Donald's sack totals, which broke my heart. And he did not make that sack total. but so yet again I'm going against one of my I'm betting against one of my favorite players of all time they've got Bobby Wagner's tackle numbers in Washington as the line has set at 155.5. And to me that's I think considering his age, it's a new team.

He played he played great on the Rams a couple years ago. He had 140 tackles, which is a great number. Last year, remember I just mentioned we were just talking about Seattle's run defense and how it was it made getting a ton of tackles very easy for their linebackers. It was just set up to when you have a terrible run defense, you're staying on the field longer, more opportunities for tackles or running more. All those things played into Bobby Wagner.

Now, Wagner is an amazing player to catch all those tackles, of course, but you do need a certain formula there. So I actually bet the under here for under 155. Combined tackles, I do think he's going to have a really good season. Every year you get older, you're risking your chance for higher risk for injury. Yeah, if he misses a couple of games, he's out. That's all it will take.

If they end up in some blowouts, Wagner will probably be the very first person. They pull off the field, whether they are winning or losing to save him. There are just too many things working against him. I still have high hopes from Bobby Wagner this year, but 160 tackles, to me, is a hell of a lot of tackles. and I'm not sure it's smart to expect him to do that again. The only thing I want to mention, I want to talk a little bit about Jamie Davis real quick because his role is interesting now that they've got Wagner

and Frankie Louvo there. But before we do, we're going to step aside real quick to hear from our sponsors. Yeah, so Jamie Davis is interesting, right? Because he's the odd man out. Don't you see here? I know they're looking. at a different role for him.

Talk to me about what you're looking at, what you've seen. Well, I'm going to touch on this near the end of this podcast in regards to kickoff rules, but Jamman Davis is probably going to see a lot less playing time. He'll be lucky to see the field for 35 to 40% of the time unless one of these two starters in Wagner or Louvo get hurt. And if that happens, then Davis can step in and at least fill in for them. then all of a sudden his fantasy value goes up. Now, it's all going to depend, and I'll mention this in the kick-return, kick-off rules, changes. It all depends on whether or not he's going to see

a lot of time on the kick-offs and or whether or not they use him as a kind of giving these two starters a rest early on in the season. Now, you've got to wonder if Davis's, his numbers are not going to be anywhere near where they were before unless there's an injury. So if you have Wagner and or Louvo, then yes, maybe go get Jammin Davis as insurance because if one of these two gets hurt, then yes, he's going to see some playing time and he's going to be putting up numbers similar to what he had last year. Yeah, and they've also been using him on the edge, kind of trying to get that, you know, we've seen this from a couple of players, a couple of, you know, stacked linebackers who they're

finding ways to use off the edge a little bit more often. Obviously, they lost a great pass rushing duo in Montez Sweat and Chase Young. So does he carve out a role as a part-time pass rusher? I mentioned that because I can't imagine. I mean, he may, we've obviously seen it before. We've seen stacked linebackers revitalize their career as edge rushers. So let's watch that. Let's see what happens in preseason.

Does he play a lot of snaps there? Yeah, because you mentioned that sweat and young being no longer there. Well, they added Doran Armstrong from Dallas, and Clellan Farrell is the projected starter on the right side. But they also added Michael Walker, who is also an edge rush type linebacker, and they could bring both of these kids in. You know, if they need a pass rushing, a lot of pressure, they obviously have pain and Allen in the middle, which are, these guys are huge, then yeah, they could spell Farrell and or Armstrong or add to them with Davis and or Walker. Yeah, that'll be one. So keep your eyes on what happens with Jamie Davis in the preseason.

He could be somebody in big play scoring leagues that we can still get value from, particularly if you're running a pretty deep roster. If he does not stick there, however, he's just going to be a backup to these two. So I want to talk about another pass rusher. I'm going to go back to Seattle. A 2023 second rounder Derek Hall. It's very early in camp, but he apparently has been the runaway star

in terms of being dominant on the pass rush side. He started running with the ones as early as day two, and he's been racking up sacks. You can't see me, but I'm air quoting at the moment because, you know, you never get to sack, actually sack the quarterback in training camp. So all you do is run up to him and then yell loudly that that would have been a sack. And for some reason, they record that as a sack.

Long story short, keep your eye on Derek Hall. This might be more of a dynasty move. I'm not sure how much playing time you'll get, but just keep Derek Hall's name, write it down on a little notepad. And let's see how often he plays in the preseason. Let's see how he looks. if he ends up working himself, we'll keep an eye on his snap counts throughout the season. He may be somebody that kind of quote unquote comes out of the blue.

We have no idea whether that's actually going to happen based on a couple of days of training camp, but there is a little buzz around him. Apparently came a little bit from OTAs as well. So let's see. Remember, he's a second rounder, and we see this all the time from pass rushers and defensive linemen. The first season is always tough, way tougher than they're expecting, which I'm going to talk about again a little bit later on, but it's usually year two or year three that we see defensive linemen really start to come into their own.

So he might be a name that might be off of people's radar. You just want to kind of keep track of in case his name pops back up. So earlier you had mentioned, you know, take the season, the preseason training camp early days with a grain of salt. And one thing I need to touch on here is the PUP and the NFI, the non-foot football injury lists. The physically unable to perform and NFI lists, they don't panic if your IDP lands on there right now early on. These are not binding lists like they are in the regular season. When you land on a PUP or NFI in the season, you're out for at least four weeks or more, depending on the list that they put you on. And in the preseason or in the summer, they can put them on a whole, they could put the whole team on there if they wanted to, and they can come off the list at any.

any time. And in an example, I'm going to go back to Seattle again, is Tyrell Dodson, who had an undisclosed injury, and Jerome Baker, who was dealing with wrist surgery he had in the offseason and was dealing with an ankle sprain. They put them on the PUP list. Well, two days into the training camp, and they both come off the list. So Seattle put like 10 players on this list, not all of them defense, but they put a whole bunch of guys on the list, and there are other teams doing the same thing. Kansas City put a bunch of their IDPs early on the list, but they're going to come off these lists.

So don't panic if somebody goes on PUP or NFI, unless you get to like week three or four in the preseason, and that's when they start putting these players on there. That's a red flag. When you get close to the regular season and somebody goes on the list, then they're most likely going to start. Stay on the list when the season starts, and that's when these lists become binding, and you're going to lose them for four more and more weeks.

A player who perfectly fits into that scenario is 49ers safety, Tolanoa Huvanga. Remember, he had Tore's ACL last season. He's still recovering from that. He's hoping to make it to week one. But another name to kind of scribble down on a notepad is rookie Malik Mustafa. He's stepped up so far in Huf. Panga's place and is really impressed the coaching staff so far during camp. He's impressed so far during camp.

And what's important about that is he's also impressed during OTAs and he also impressed during many camps. So now he is really stacking up the days in which he is being noticed and called out for his excellent play. This is from coaches. This is from beat riders. And if Hufanga does not hit the ground running, no pun intended, then we may see Mustafa step up and get and get some playing time early in the season. Jair Brown is the other safety right now. It's Mustafa and Jayaer Brown running.

There's even a scenario down the road that says that once Hufanga's back, that they do not want to pull Mustafa off the field, and he might end up replacing Brown. So keep an eye on that. Let's just see how it goes not only. And also if it's the sort of thing where you know you're going to want Hufanga, but he's going to miss the first couple of weeks, then you draft him,

and then later on draft Mustafa to run him for the first couple of weeks until Hufanga comes off the IR, if that's what ends up happening. So watch him during preseason. Does he roll with the ones or not? And how does he look? You know, I could see Mustafa being, even if Hufanga comes back and is starting,

I think Mustafa could be the third safety, because he's climbed over Eric Harris. He's a veteran that they brought in. And George Odom is battling Mustafa for the third safety spot with the healthy Hufanga and Brown. So even if Hufanga comes back, I think Mustafa is still going to get a lot of playing time as the third safety on that 49ers defense.

Now, I'm going to go stay in the secondary, but I'm going over to Minnesota. They are already having depth problems at cornerback. The unfortunate death of Roeuvre. rookie Kyrie Jackson in a car accident happened this past few weeks. And thoughts and prayers go out to the Jackson family and their loved ones. Now, Mackay Blackman tore his ACL at the beginning of training camp. And the following day, Shaquille Griffin took an awkward step following a pick during practice

and had to be escorted to the locker room by the medical staff. Now, the injury is unknown at this time. But so you've got a black paul over this Minnesota secondary in their cornerbacks. And that leaves them with Byron Murphy and Caleb Evans as their starters and Duke Shelley and Andrew Booth battling for the nickel cornerback role if Griffin's going to be out for any point in time. So this is something to focus on, see if they address bringing in any cornerbacks if they do. I mean, Stefan Gilmore is still out there. So they could bring in a veteran cornerback. And if they do, then Griffin's injury is probably more serious.

Blackman's probably done for the year. The unfortunate accident on Kyrie Jackson really puts a dent in their plans. And you have to pay close attention to this. Especially this is the type of thing that you need to do for if you have offensive players in your leagues as well as IDPs, because the IDPs will affect you. but also offenses that go and play Minnesota, their aerial attacks could become a little more prevalent for you because of the fact that Minnesota is very thin at the corner.

One thing I've heard from, just read from coaches, particularly defensive coaches, and actually in offensive coordinators, is you can have a really good defense, but if you have one or two weak spots, an offense will beat you. Like they will find your weakness. And so you need solid players at every position

and then a few superstars who will win their battles more often than not. If you have superstars with a couple of positions and you have a few weaknesses, that will be the area of the field that will be targeted. We've seen it over and over again. Often we can use that to our advantage when you play IDP, right? We've seen it before with safeties who are just getting burned week after week and they, you know, they get attacked and their receiver catches the

ball and then they tackle that receiver. And it's like, oh, my God, this guy, the safety got 12 tackles today. Oh, he's wonderful and then it gets cut. So you want to use this to your advantage. You know, there is a, there is a scenario here that says, you know, for example, if Caleb Evans ends up winning the spot, maybe he's somebody who gets targeted early and often, and that's something that we can use to our advantage. So I did see that, I did see a report that said that Shack Griffin was, that he was spotted walking under his own power at the end of camp. So at least that alone is a good sign.

It's not enough of a good sign, but at least, you know, there's a little bit of a sigh of relief that he's walking. Right. And you brought up a great point where with somebody like Evans, he's young. and if you've got a Mustafa or an evidence, you've got these young players who start seeing more playing time, teams will test them early. And if they do well early,

then the teams will back off. But you're going to find that these IDPs, the younger ones, will be tested early and often, and they can be very productive. And then all of a sudden you see their production drop off and you wonder why. It's because they are probably doing well and teams are starting to back off.

You brought up an excellent point in that. that offenses look for your weakness and they attack the weakness. Well, that's the same thing. The raven tree we were talking about early on defense, that's the same thing they do in the defense. They look for the offensive weaknesses and they attack those weaknesses. That's why with a Pete Carroll system in Seattle, that's why they did well one week and then the next week they looked horrible. It's because they weren't complex and they weren't changing all the time. whereas the new systems that they bring in, especially in Seattle, but on a lot of other places as well,

they focus on the defense, find the weakness, and then they attack that weakness every different, you know, and it changes every week depending on the matchup. So that's going to be vitally important for you when you start the season as far as knowing, you know, why is this team doing well and why is this one not? And then it changes two or three weeks later because they're adjusting. We've spent a lot of time talking about some rookies and some players who are maybe a little bit off the radar. I want to talk about somebody I think whose value might be a little depressed heading into draft season, and that's defensive end Sam Hubbard.

He had a slightly down year last year. It was the first time he's posted fewer than 50 tackles in quite a while. He missed two games with an ankle injury, and in general didn't quite put up the same kind of metrics and stats that were. used to seeing, but apparently that ankle never got right all for the rest of the season. He kind of limped through the rest of the season. He did have offseason surgery to repair that. So if you're looking for a veteran DL, you know, Sam Hubbard should bounce back to his normal, you know, 65 tackle 7 to 8 sack production that we're used to seeing. And you might be able to get that at a discount if your league mates don't realize that what we're,

we saw from Sam Hubbard was somebody who was dealing with an injury that is now cleared out. Now, Sam still had a strong, I think he had 58 tackles, you know, and maybe six sacks. So he still had a solid season, but, you know, he's capable of 65 to 70 tackles. He's capable of, you know, seven, eight, nine sacks when healthy. So this could be somebody that you might be able to get a round or two later who should have a bounce back season. All right. I'm going to go in touch on the new kickoff role. Now, I could sit here and burn up an hour of podcast time talking about this new rule, which is going to blow people's minds right out of the gate.

It's more of an XFL arena football type rule that is changing and is going to look completely foreign to folks right out of the gate. The key to this new kickoff rule is, one, the kicker is kicking from the 35-yard line like they always do. but the rest of the 10 kickoff team players have to line up on the opponent's 40-yard line with one foot on the line, and they can't move until the ball lands inside the 20-yard line or is touched by the receiving team. So what is really going to be weird is that the receiving team has to line up between their 35 and 30-yard line. So seven of those players on the receiving team have to have their foot on the 35-yard line, and two of them have to be outside the numbers and can be anywhere they want, but none of them can move again until the ball is either landed in the 20-in-the-landing zone,

the 20-yard line to the goal line, or the player catches the ball. Now, that means that, okay, you no longer have speed being the prevalent factor on kickoffs because guys aren't running from the 35-yard line all the way down the field. You now have the players you're looking for are the players that have the ability to shed blockers and make tackles in a short area. So instead of, you know, like just last year alone, you had guys like Kishan Nixon and Xavier Gibson and, you know, wide receivers and ds who were fast, who were at the top of the tackle list for kickoffs. Nixon had like 780 or 82 kick tackles on kickoffs alone. And you look at the top 20 in tackles, and they're all wide receivers and DBs. Well, now you're going to find guys like Jammin Davis that we mentioned earlier,

and you're going to find a whole host of defensive tackles and linebackers. And even hybrid DBs that can play linebacker will see special teams duty because they need to they again, they can't move off of that 40-yard line until the ball is touched. So they're only 20 to 30 or 35, 40 yards away from the ball instead of being 70 yards away from the ball. So as soon as they fire off, they're only five yards away from the opposing team who's going to try and block them. So now you have to be able to shed that block and then maintain your lane in a short area because you're not needed to run down the field. field. So the players are going to be bigger. They're going to be more stout. They're going to be a, you know, linebackers and DLs could give you, again, if you have scoring for tackles on kickoffs, this could be

something where you find a linebacker or defensive linemen. We'll give you three, four, five tackles in one game because they got one on defense and then they got three or four on special teams. Now, this isn't just the, the, the, the players lining up in that 40, 30, 35 yard line area. You also have guys like Justin Reed who might be used as the kicker for the Kansas City Chiefs because the kicker kicks off at the 35 yard line and then can go up to the 50 but can't go past the 50 until the ball is touched or lands in that landing zone. And that means that now if for some reason the ball, you're going to see a lot more kick returns this year than you ever have. before, you're going to see at least double of it they had in the past few years. If they get past that short area line of the 30 or 35-yard line where the offensive players, where the receiving team is blocking the kicking team, if they burst through there,

your kicker's got to be the only line in defense. So teams like Kansas City are contemplating using Justin Reed as the kickers, so they add another tackler to their 11 players on the field because they could be the last line of defense. It's going to be very interesting, and I'm going to be paying strict attention to this during the first three preseason games, because even though most of these guys may not make the team, the style that teams are using as far as their schemes on kickoffs and kick returns is going to be very, very important. Absolutely. Yeah, that was a great breakdown. We're going to close out. I want to talk about a couple of young edge rushers who I'm expecting to take.

massive leaps. One is third year defensive end, Aiden Hutchinson, and the other is second year defensive end, Will Anderson, Jr. As Thomas and I have chronicled each year, rookie edges tend to start slow because it's a big adjustment to the NFL. These hulking offensive linemen, they've seen it all, they've seen every move you've got, they see it every Sunday, you're not bringing anything new to them. They've also spent far more time in the wait room than a lot of these kids who are fresh out of college. So even the elite ones take a while to get going. And so these, you know, some of our favorite edge rushers have solid first years,

but it's really in that second and third year where they start to make that leap into, you know, impact player, like heavy impact player. And so let's start with Hutchinson. So Hutchinson's going into his third year. Last year he had nine and a half, sorry, he added nine and a half sacks, his rookie year, had 11 and a half sacks last year. But I'm expecting him to push into the 15 to 17 sack range this year. His 2023 pressures suggested he should have been close to that mark anyway last year.

Plus a big addition, he now has run stuffing defensive tackle DJ Reeder playing next to him. That's really going to help him. Similar deal to Anderson heading into his sophomore season. He had five sacks in his first 12 games, which is strong for a rookie. But then he got injured and he missed two games. And actually was only a part-time player those last couple of games as they were kind of resting him up and try to let him heal. So he ends the season with seven sacks. But Thomas, I'd be shocked if you told me he played 17 games in 2024 and didn't have at least 12, if not more sacks.

And you want to talk about help. You'd mentioned earlier he's got Daniel Hunter. He's got DeNico Autry playing right next to him. and it's going to help keep his double teams down. And also, you know, the Texas are expected to win 10 or more games this year. That's also going to help his past rushing opportunities. So we're already looking at Hutchinson and Anderson as being fairly high defensive ends. But my guess is you still have, this will be your season to get him at a slight discount. Both of these players, I'm assuming, are going to have massive breakout years, you know, 15 sacks, that sort of thing. and starting to get talked about more in the Max Crosby, T.J. Watt kind of atmosphere.

And so getting on that train a little early to me would be the way to go. And they also added Derek Barnett, who will probably come in as a specialized pass rusher and maybe be playing inside for maybe Fadakasi or even Autry. And, you know, they brought back Jerry Hughes, too. So this defensive front line is definitely built. to apply pressure on the on the opposing quarterback. Yes, sir. All right, that is going to wrap us up here at Fantasy Points Now for our IDP Corner podcast.

If you are a Fantasy Point subscriber and you're a premium subscriber, make sure to reach out to us on the Discord channel. That's where we're doing a lot of our heavy lifting this preseason, helping everyone with their drafts and helping everybody kind of check out Dynasty values as well, sleepers, etc. So if you were a fantasy point subscriber, please check in with us on the IDP Discord channel. We'll be very active in there. And now going forward, we should be doing one of these pods every week. We'll start paying attention to preseason action, any injuries, any depth charts move that we happen to see. Also, remember, you can follow me on Twitter at Down with IDP.

Thomas, you want to take us out? Be well and be safe. What? What? Why are you shaking your head? You're welcome.