Fantasy Football Daily - Jacksonville Jaguars with John Shipley | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: July 1, 2023

The AFC South is a division in upheaval... except for the defending champions. The hunters have become the hunted, so John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) of @JaguarReport joins Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) to discuss the expectations for the 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars and break them down from a fantasy football perspective. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you can go for the gold at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Gambling problem call connects Ontario 1866531-260. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See Golden Nuggett Casino.com for details. Please play responsibly. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. I'm Joe Dolan and welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network.

We continue the franchise focus podcast series with our third division, that being the AFCC South. I've already previewed the AFC East and the AFC North. I hope everybody enjoyed those podcasts as much as I did. I hope everybody learned as much as I did, and I hope everyone was entertained as much as I did breaking down those two divisions.

We have eight teams down following this round of podcast. We'll have 12, and honestly, we're just going to keep on going until we're 32 down. We're going to break them down alphabetically by division, so the AFC South will begin with the Houston Texans, then the Indianapolis Colts, then the Jacksonville

Jaguars and then finally the Tennessee Titans so thank you for continuing to support the podcast series i hope this is something that you'll make part of your pre-draft routine in 2023 or pre-training camp routine maybe you're doing best ball drafts right now and you're taking these nuggets to heart as i am so thanks everybody for continuing to listen and let's continue with our breakdown of the afcc welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at fantasy points dot com today we're talking Jacksonville Jaguars with the best of the best. His name is John Shipley. He is the Jaguars beat reporter for Jaguar Report. His Twitter handle is at underscore John underscore Shipley. John, I have the same problem because Joe Dolan apparently is an old Irish crooner. And I get a lot of thirsty Irish

ladies in my in my mentions every now and again. RIP to the goat, Joe Dolan. But I had to underscore some of my name as well. Yeah, evidently there's a, like, old Minnesota sports writer. He's been, like, prominent there for like 50-something years named John Shipley. So it definitely, especially, you know, trying to Google stories and stuff, it's definitely a back and forth between me and him. He's got the experience on me that. I'll give him that.

Yeah, so maybe one day you can remove an underscore. I'm looking forward to that day as well. But we're here to talk Jaguars, and I've got to be honest, I've been going around recording these AFC South podcasts with people in Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. And last year, I mean, it was like a dirge going through this division. And there's a lot of hope in this division now. And I think certainly Jaguar fans are thinking of taking the next step, you know, time to maybe win some playoff games. And, you know, I thought it was interesting.

Jaguar Report posted a tweet. If you're listening to this, it was last week. but on June 20th, and you and your colleague were ranking the top 10 NFL quarterbacks. And the caveat was it's over the next three seasons with current salaries. So maybe you knock down a guy who's got a big contract or something. You had Trevor Lawrence rank behind only Patrick Mahomes. And I got to be honest, when we were talking Trevor Lawrence last year, I don't know if you would have put him in that spot or anywhere close to it.

No, no, not at all. And I think, you know, like you said, the caveat that it is for the next, you know, three years, contracts included. I responded to, I think, a fan on Twitter. They said if we're going just for 2023 alone, he's obviously not a number two spot. You know, he obviously hasn't proved what guys like Burrow and Allen have. But I think if you just look at like the value of contracts around the NFL, I mean, Burrow and Herbert, they're going to get paid very soon, you know. Lamar just got paid.

Hurch just got paid. Just in terms of pure value and bang for your buck, I mean, Trevor Lawrence, he's going to give you top 10 quarterback play for the next probably two years with complete cost control rookie contract. And you can't say that about really any other quarterback in the NFL because guys are either getting paid or they're guys from the 2021, 2021, 2022 class, and nobody from those classes is, you know, really near Trevor Lawrence. I'd say, you know, probably like the top values for what they'll bring to a table

compared to what they're getting paid around the league. It's obviously Mahomes first just because he's Mahomes. But I'd say Lawrence might have the second most valuable contract in football. I think it's him. Michael Parsons is up there. Brock Purdy is up there and sitting seventh round pick. So I just think the pure advantage of the Jaguars have a quarterback who can be in the conversation of those top guys, but he's not going to get paid like those guys for another couple of years.

When do you think Lawrence took the leap last year to where you're saying, okay, I think this guy's a top 10 quarterback in the NFL or is at least really close to it. Yeah, I think the consensus is that it was after their loss against the Denver Broncos in London. It was one of Lawrence's worst games of the year. I remember the game started. He had a great scoring drive against a really good at the time. It was one that I believe at the time it was the top pass defense in the NFL. He had a great touchdown throw to Evan Ingram.

And then he just kind of fell apart the rest of the game, had a really bad interception on like first and goal. in the end zone that took away points. And it was after that game that things started to click. So I'd say definitely, you know, probably around like games against the Raiders, games against the Ravens, the Ravens, his entire fourth quarter was really kind of a master class of position. So it definitely took a little bit. It wasn't like week one.

Okay, he's automatically, you know, improved from where he was last year. And I think he's actually a good lesson to people who are expecting so much out of these quarterbacks. Like maybe people shouldn't expect Bryce Young and Caleb Williams. next year to be set the league on fire week one. Maybe give them some time because Lawrence, who was tabbed as a generational guy, like, yeah, he was in a terrible situation, but he still needed, you know, some time just because, I mean, if you look at the offense he played out in Clemson, it didn't prepare him for the NFL

at all. And you could see that early on. The next step for the Jaguars offense, of course, is bolstering the supporting cast for Trevor Lawrence. And, you know, there was a point last year where I had completely forgotten that the Jaguars traded for Calvin Ridley at the trade deadline. I'm like, oh, yeah, that's right. Calvin Ridley's on this team. Now, for fantasy purposes, he's actually getting drafted, at least on underdog fantasy

bestball, ahead of Christian Kirk, who had a 90-catch season last year. What have you seen from Calvin Ridley at OTAs, mini-camps, talking to him? And do you think it's justified that he should be getting drafted ahead of Christian Kirk at this point? I really think that he's going to be, you know, as advertised, and that he's going to be the Calvin Ridley people last remember saying. And I understand any hesitations on him just because, you know, he's been away from the game for so long. But it's for to remember that other than a foot injury in 2021, you know, he wasn't away last year because of a physical reason.

And you go and watch him this off season. And they've stressed that they're not letting him completely 100% loose yet because, again, he's been away for two years. They want to slowly bring him back into their fold of things. So it doesn't suffer any injuries. But from what I saw of him, they're in offseason practices, there's no physical, you know, issues. He looks extremely explosive, extremely quick feed. I think he's going to be both his skill set and the scheme that he's going into, which last year was very good at getting guys open, you know,

just by scheme and play calls. I think he's going to be open at a high rate. And I do wonder, like, how many targets he's going to see just because they have, you know, so many other guys to throw the ball to that they really like. And I'm not sure there's ever going to be a bona fide number one guy in the offense. But I do think that he's fun. and what I saw and from what I've seen, what I've heard, from what other people have said, that he looks as advertised so far.

So Zay Jones, I think, is the guy who everybody from a fantasy perspective is kind of knocking because of Calvin Ridley's emergence in this offense. But Zay Jones coming off a season, which he had 82 catches and scored five touchdowns. Do you think it's justified that maybe he's going to be the guy who gets kind of the big knock here in terms of production? I think to a degree because you just look at his targets last year. You know, he saw, I think it was, what, 115, 116 targets. Like he really was, you know, fed the ball at a high volume because he was really their main outside receiver.

You know, Ingram and Kirk were slack guys, Marvin Jones. It was obviously, you know, not the same Marvin Jones from years prior. So I do think if there's any guy who's going to see fewer targets, like I don't think Christian Kirk, his world is going to change that much. If he sees fewer targets, I think it's fine and insignificant. get in a mount. But if there is a guy who I think his targets would drop maybe a noseball amount, it would probably be Zay, just because, I mean, Marvin Jones wasn't targeted as much last year. You add Calvin Ridley to the mix. That's obviously going to change. But I do think that there will be weeks where Zay will just completely explode because the way their offense is they

almost have a different scheme every week. And they really try to target defenses and weaknesses. So there will be some weeks where Zay is against the, you know, the worst corner that the other team has. And, you know, I think it was the Ravens game last year where he caught three touchdown just out of nowhere. And I think he'll have some performances like that this year. Evan Ingram's on the franchise tag. The Jaguars obviously didn't want to let him go. Is there a chance of a long-term deal getting worked out here? I do think there's a chance.

I think that the Jaguars would like for a deal to get done just so that they can, you know, ensure that they have one of it launches top targets on the contract for next few seasons. I know they just drafted a tight-in in the second round, but the tight-in position for one, it's already a hard position for rookies to come in and play at a high level. And from what I saw in the off season, like Brynn Strange, like he's a good bit away from being, you know,

ready to be inserted into a starting lineup for the Jabrars. So I think that, you know, when you look at him, he's really deep, their only option right now, unless they make some kind of move or strange, make some kind of giant leap for the short-term future. So I do think the Jabrars would like to get a deal done. That's not to say. I think one will get done.

I'd probably say in terms of percentage, it's 70% chance he plays in the franchise tag. But I don't think it's a case where there's no chance of deal happens. So let's go to the backfield. And one of the, first and foremost, Travis ETN was very good for fantasy last year. There's no two ways about it. But I think based on how he came out of Clemson and the fact that the Jaguars clearly wanted a rotation last year before they realized, unfortunately, James Robinson's injury had really sapped him of explosiveness. I thought Travis E.T.M. was going to come into the NFL, and he was going to be an Alvin

Camara kind of player. You know, 170 carries, 180 carries, but he's really going to make his hey, 90, 100 targets. He didn't catch more than three passes in a game last year. Why was that? And do you foresee that changing? I actually think that's a part of the evaluation of E.T.N. Or him coming out of Clemson, I really think Urban Meyer did him a disservice by calling him a slash player and saying that he would take some snaps of receiver because he was, receiving wasn't a strength of his coming out of Clemson. I mean, I know in his senior season, he produced well in terms of catches and yards, et cetera. But if you look at his Clemson career, almost all of his receiving plays that were a positive were screen plays. And it, you know, it wasn't him being utilized as an actual, you know, receiving threat out of the backfielders was beating.

linebackers, defensive backs, and coverage. You know, he was more or less schemed as a receiver. It was very basic plays. And he said as much when he got drafted, he said that the only things they ever did at Clemson was, you know, checkdowns and screens in terms of route running. So he was very raw in that regard. And I think overall, you know, when you watch him, not to say he has bad hands or bad feel for past catching, but he is inconsistent at times.

So have the occasional drop that you wouldn't expect. And then on top of all of that, Doug, Peterson, I mean, he has said before in his offense. Like, it's just not an offense that features the running back in the passing game very often because, I mean, they want to feature their receivers. They want to feature the tight ends. And they also, they don't have a quarterback who checks the ball down very much. So I think you add all of this in. And it was just kind of a perfect storm for him as a lack of a receiver.

If that makes sense. So obviously, the Jaguars make a significant investment in the backfield. Last year, they traded up for Snoop Connor. This year, they use a third round pick on Tank Bigsby. out of Auburn. What's the evaluation for Tank Bigsby? What do you anticipate his role? Again, that's a pretty significant investment in the running back position this day of age.

Yeah, absolutely. I think that he definitely is one of the players who had a strong offseason. I'd say out of all their working class, which is like 13 picks, he has the most buzz inside the building, you know, out of all those picks after OTAs and mini-camp. It looked really explosive. He's really impressive just in terms of his build and personal. person. And then he did a great job as a pass capture this offseason, which, you know, running back Scutcheburner probably said he didn't know much of if he had that part of his game. And he kind of showed him that this

off season. So I think you'll see him used maybe not a rotation because I do think ETN will be declared number one back, but he'll get some series now and then. But I really hesitate to say that he's automatically going to see, you know, that many snaps or that many touches or even be a goal line guy. this early just because, I mean, it's, it's proven that this is a pass-first offense. And when they do run the ball, I mean, they expect ETN to be better this year. For as productive as he was last year, you know, there's a big belief that he left a lot of yards on the field, too. So they expect him to be a lot better this year.

So I think he'll see his touches now and then. But other than if ETN struggles early on as a goal lineback, I could see them turn to tank. But otherwise, I see him, you know, as a backup running back, who's going to see a few touches maybe a game. So if I were talking to the average Jaguar fan, and I would say, I'm sure you're excited, you know, like just sitting down there at the bar. Offense looks great. You know, Trevor took the big step forward.

I would venture to guess that 90% of Jaguar fans would say, if they were concerned about something, they say, yeah, but the offensive line. What's the outlook for the Jags offensive line this year? I think Cam Robinson's coming off some injuries. They spent the first round pick on Anton Harrison. and what do you think that that offensive line's going to look at? Do you think that there's a reason to be optimistic about them up front and front of Trevor Lawrence? Yeah, absolutely.

And I think you pull anybody like any national or outside analysts and they'll say the offensive line too. And I think, you know, most teams are probably higher on their offensive line than the consensus. But the Jaguars especially, you know, kind of especially disagree with the fact that the offensive line is in the Keeley's heel. I think that part of it is, you know, they struggle in short. yard is, you know, run blocking last year. And there's no question about that. Luke Fortner, who was a third-round pick last year, started all there, all 19 games. You play, I miss, I'm not sure if he missed any snaps.

I think he played the most snaps of any rookie last year. You know, they really liked him for his mental toughness, his ability to set protections early on as a rookie. But he struggled as a run-blocker, and you could tell, like, he just, he didn't have the strength to hold up. He's come into all-season with kind of a transformed body. They're hoping that he's, you know, much stronger. And then you're hoping, you know, Brandon Sheriff, he didn't miss any games last year, but he was being up for a lot of the second half. And I think that lets some of the issues.

Left tackle, obviously, Kim Robinson, you know, it's to be determined, you know, with his potential looming suspension, how many games he would miss. But, you know, the Jaguars, you know, they've invested so much in the offensive tackle position that they have the rare ability to, okay, our left tackle might be suspended. We have a former second round pick who we can put right there and, you know, walk a little. And I think the big question is the left guard spot, you know, whether it's Cyrus Shatley, whether it's been baruch. I think Walker Little could slide in the left guard when Cam Robinson returns just because I personally, based on what everything, all the, you know, really noise and traction was in the building the saw season, was that Ken Robinson, he's simply being paid too much to not play. And he's a left tackle only.

So I think once he comes back, you could see that. But I do think the Jaguars, I don't think their offensive line is as bad as people say. don't think it's as good as they think. I think it's probably right there in the middle area, but you're also making on Trevor Lawrence and Doug Peterson make the line look better. Were you, were you in favor of the Anton Harrison pick? Was that something that the fans liked? What did you have, what have you seen from him? Yeah, no, I think it was a good pick. I think, yeah, if you're going to draft a starting tackles or rookie, you know, you pretty much have to draft them in the first round. He was the last guy, you know, really in that group of tackles who

could come in early and play as a rookie and would want a first round pick. And the fact that they jumped back a few Spocks, I think, you know, really they could have kept Joanne Taylor and paid him, you know, the giant contract he's getting. But instead they save, you know, 60, 70 million on Anton Harrison and get three more draft picks, you know, so you get Anton Harrison, three more draft picks and 60 or 70 million to spend that you wouldn't have had if you had and John Taylor. I mean, I think that's just a good process. That's good business. You know, there's definitely questions about them not taking a pass rush. and then not taking a defensive pack. And, you know, those questions got to be answered.

But if they didn't take Harrison, they would have been in trouble during Robinson suspension because, I mean, they would have had to turn to Josh Wells or Blake Hans, a right tackle. And that wouldn't have been a good outcome. So, John, I've been wrapping up all these franchise-focused podcast interviews by asking my guest, maybe one under the radar player who might make an impact for fantasy

might not be on the tip of people's tongues. I think we've already talked about Tank Biggsby, but it's really hard to find somebody else here on the Jaguars' offense who might do that. Yeah, it is just because they're working. returning so many people. They're like, the only people they lost were Marvin Jones and two backup tied in. So, you know, it's hard to really find a sleeper, you know, with the Jaguars. But, you know, maybe a few guys potentially think about.

Jamal Agnew, you know, he, he's going to have some kind of role as a design touch guy on the offense. They wouldn't have kept him at his contract if he was just going to be a returner. You know, he's being paid what he is because he's one of the best returners in the NFL, but he can also play a role in offense. So you'll see him get some design touches, especially in the red zone. And then, I mean, I know they drafted a tight end in the second round in Britain Strange, but they're high on Luke Farrell.

And I would assume that Luke Farrell will be their number two tight end this year. And, you know, if Evan Ingram ever gets banged up or anything, Luke Farrell will probably be the Jaguars tight end I look at instead of it and strange. His name is John Shipley. You can follow him on Twitter at underscore John underscore Shipley. We're both in the process of looking to lose some of those underscores. He is the Jaguars beat reporter for Jaguar Report. And he is very high on Trevor Lawrence.

so perhaps we should be too. John, thanks for joining me on the program. Thanks for being a recurring guest on the show. It was great having you. Oh, no, absolutely. Looking forward to a 2024 version. Well, hopefully we'll be talking about a playoff win with the Jaguars. We'll be wrapping up the NFC South with Paul Kaharski of the Tennessee Titans

or talking Tennessee Titans at least. Thanks everybody for listening to the Franchise Focus Podcast series, and I'll catch you later. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at fantasypoints.com.