Fantasy Football Daily - JJ Zachariason's 16 Fantasy Football Players that WON the Offseason! 👀

Episode Date: May 8, 2026

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Which 2026 rookies had the best NFL landing spots and are set to Smash and which veterans gained the most value post-NFL draft. JJ Zacharison is back with us here on Fantasy Points. That's him. That's the old cheat. JJ, welcome back. We met a couple weeks ago, months ago. I think the draft process, you sort of like lose track of time because it's just so

constant. But you came on, you talked about prospects you really liked. And now we were able to look at a whole new data dump with where they actually landed. You were extremely high on. Jordan Tyson leading up into the NFL draft, like way before a lot of people steamed him up, way before we had the top 10 rumors out there. You had him as your wide receiver one. He came in at number one in your model.

He was drafted eighth overall to the New Orleans Saints. You also had another wide receiver drafted inside the top 10 with Carnell Tate at four overall to the Tennessee Titans. I think a lot of people like both of these players at this point, but for you, which player do you have ranked first overall among wideouts? Yeah, look, I think that they belong in the same tier. But, but I won't lie. I mean, the Zat model definitely prefers Jordan Tyson over Carnal Tate overall. Tyson's analytical profile to me, said it before when we chatted. To me, it's the best in this class. And I don't think it's really that close. I think that if you, you know,

were to look at some of the things like his yards after the catch ability, his ability to break tackles, not super, super strong. And those are numbers that do translate. So there's a little bit of worry there. He's not an early declare. We do prefer early declares, but he's still not 22 years old. And so he's a younger four-year player. And man, every stop. I mean, he starts at Colorado. He dominates that freshman year until he gets hurt. I say dominate. I mean from the standpoint of he's a freshman who leads that team in receiving despite only playing, you know, nine or so games, has the knee injury. He's out that second year. Third year, he comes back. back and he has the best receiving yards per team pass attempt season when adjusted for

strength of schedule and when adjusted for age of anyone in this class, that third season that Tyson had. And so you just put it all together and you know, you get, you get that top eight draft capital. He just looks really, really good analytically. I know there's the sort of stuff that's not going to be captured by models, which is going to be the injury risk and such. And so, you know, you can subjectively say, okay, maybe because of that, I'll put them in the same tier. But when it comes to him, I just, I think that he's got a really good profile and in the landing spot in New Orleans. You know, Kellen Moore, I trust as a as a coach in a, you know, if you were, if you will, a coordinator, you know, as someone who will keep the pace, which is obviously what we want in

fantasy football. You know, his teams, uh, dating back to Dallas have consistently ranked in the top five, uh, you know, with, uh, when it comes to, to seconds per play. And so I, I just, I just, I just love the landing spot. I think that, you know, him combined with Chris Alave makes a lot of sense where he's a zone beater and Chris Alave is more of a man beater. And I think that they could alternate, you know, depending on what the defenses are giving them. Tyler Shuck, I thought at least showed some promise last year.

So you combine all of that and I trust that system and I trust that environment. I don't mind the fit with Carnell Tate by any means. You know, you pair a guy who can stretch the field vertically with a big arm quarterback like Cam Ward. But there's just as much volatility with Ward. as there is with Tyler Shuck, in my opinion, at this point, after what we saw year one. I think the good part about Tate in his landing spot is that he can be the one when we didn't really see that in college.

You know, he maxed out at a best season target share in college of 21.7%. That was a bottom half number within this class. We haven't seen him be a true, like, big target earner and target hog, you know. And so I like the talent. I like what I see. You know, the analytics don't look terrible with him at all. You know, I'm not trying to paint it that way. it's just Jordan Tyson's numbers were sort of a step higher.

And we don't have as many of those types of questions about the numbers that I know do translate to fantasy success at the next level. So I do have Tyson above Tate. It's no shade to Tate. I'm not going to be like shocked if, you know, Tate is better at the NFL level from a fantasy perspective than Tyson. I actually got the question yesterday like, you know, if you're in a hundred different leagues and you have the opportunity to take Tyson or Tate, you know,

especially given the fact that Tyson goes after Tate in a lot of these roads. rookie drafts, what would that mix be between the two? Probably 65, 35, 75, 70, 30 for me between the two, you know, just to, you know, because I have to keep an open mind. I'm not going to be right 100% of the time. So, but I do prefer Tyson over date. So when we look at them, you know, a lot of people are talking about like sort of the dynasty perspective, but if we take a step back and look at like the best ball and redraft perspective, do you think that they're appropriately priced? Let me pull up their most recent bestball prices and sort of are they players that you could see steaming up throughout the summer uh there's really no science to this it's more of a gut feel yeah but we see carnell

tate coming in at wide receiver 30 jordan tyson at wide receiver 31 so slightly higher than i i guess right after the nfl draft they're starting to trend into like the mid wide receiver three range i like them both at that price where are you at yeah i think it's it's about right you know there's sort of that drop in my opinion in tier or like just like obvious picks like once you start getting past like roma dunzee and such like i start to feel or like terry mclorren or you know however you have that kind of like area ranked i mean i'm i'm pretty high on on uh dunesay in general but um you know once you get past that and you're into like christian watson range and you start to get into more like of these ambiguous you know situations and players where we don't know

exactly, you know, we don't have as much comfortability with them as we do, not only the situations of the other guys, but also just the archetype and the, the past production of the other players. That's when I think you can start thinking about those rookie wide receivers, which is a little bit higher than where they're, you know, being ranked at the moment, you know, in these

best ball drafts. So I think they're both draftable. I, you know, given me liking Tyson more than Tate, I think they're probably, again, in the same tier from even a projection standpoint and from a, from a this year standpoint. And so you can go after either guy, because I think both are extremely stackable too. You know, like you can get Shuck at a decent price. You can get Cam Ward at a very good price.

And you should feel confident, you know, from a best ball perspective that those quarterbacks are more than likely going to be as long as they're healthy, you know, starting the full season. Yeah. And I think for for Tyson, I think people are sort of underrating the chance that Alave is, is playing for someone else in 2027. I think the pathway long term there is he could be in like the CD Lam role with Kellen Moore. you've brought up Garrett Wilson as sort of a style was it a stylistic or the way they're going to use him within the offense yeah it was more of a usage comp you know I think that that one of the comps that popped in the Zat model for Jordan Tyson I mean look Cory Davis was one of the top three which is not good obviously but on the other end with Cid Lam so like it could go you know in that direction where you get a guy who can play inside out you know you can use them and deploy them all over the the the formation

But I think that the way that New Orleans might ideally want to use him is in a Garrett Wilson like way where Wilson's very good in those like intermediate areas. And, you know, I think that that Alave is better suited to stretch the field in an offense like this or just in general as a player and as an archetype. And so there's actually a chance. I don't think it'll happen this year per se. But I think there's a chance that like long term that Tyson is just the better volume type earner similar similarly to what we see with like a garret wilson you know and what he's done throughout

his career versus alave being more of a and and alave can do this you know i've always been i i've thought for years that alave has been an arbitrage on garret wilson you know from from like a dynasty standpoint and such is because their their numbers are not any different really and i thought as prospects they weren't that tremendously different either um but but with jordan tyson i think there's just a higher likelihood of him being sort of like that target hog and that magnet uh because he's so good against zone or he can be against zone, you know, you get like what Matt Harmon did with reception and his in his zone charting. And I can see a scenario where he just is getting a lot of looks that, you know, may not be as impactful in real football from like an expected value

standpoint, expected point standpoint, but it is valuable from a fantasy standpoint because we love those, those cheap targets. Yeah, really interesting stuff with both of those wide receivers. Let's talk about Jeremiah Love, who's obviously going to be a winner. because the draft capital was unbelievable from a running back going at three overall. But I've heard some mixed messages, some mixed opinions from many analysts about their enthusiasm for love heading into 2026. He's been checking in right around running back 13 in early ADP. To me, this feels like a potential value.

I wonder if you look back in history and say, oh, I could see his season turning out like this, this rookie season turning out like this guys. I'll throw out Bejohn Robinson, I'll throughout Jemir Gibbs, I'll throughout Ashton Genty, or are we underestimating his potential and could his rookie season look more like a Zeke Elliott, Sequin Barclay? Where are you at on Jeremiah Love enthusiasm? Will he be a target for you when you start churning out redraft rankings right around that two three turn area? I could see it being like if you want to look at recent history, you know, highly invested in running backs, you know, first round picks.

I would point to like a Jamir Gibbs as a how he could be deployed standpoint, like from that perspective because love is very explosive. He's not, he's not necessarily like a Zeke prospect from the standpoint of like being that like, like Zeke was more. I mean, to be fair, early career, Zique was was phenomenal. And he had a lot of that explosion. But I think love is is sort of a step up more in that Jemir Gibbs mold from an explosiveness perspective.

Good pass catcher, like solid pass catcher out of the backfield. I don't know if he's as good as Gibbs as a receiver, but even still from a deployment standpoint in Arizona, when you have Tyler Algier, who already we've seen, you know, the last few years, uh,

take some work away from his stud running back teammate and Bijan Robinson and getting some of that goal line work. Now, I will say Tyler Algier at the goal line has actually been basically average, in terms of his conversion rate versus the last 15 year average for running backs at the goal line. So, you know, I don't think that he's like so,

special at the goal line that you have to use them there. But I do think that an NFL team could just look at him and be like, this is a bulldozer. You know, he's a big body dude. We're just going to give him the goal line work. And not only that, we're not going to be good this year. Let's not just grind this third overall running back into the ground. Well, we don't really have to. And so, you know, if you look at what Jamir Gibbs did his rookie season, it was like 180 carries. You know, he got obviously some looks through the area, like 70 targets or so. And he got more as the season went on, as we typically see, you know, from rookie running back. So I think with with love, um, what we're looking at is probably, you know,

more of like a 50 to 60% running back rush share type player, maybe a, maybe a little bit above that 60% mark. Um, and then, you know, seeing that 12% target share or so or 13% target share, which is valuable in an area on an Arizona team where the defense is going to be bad. They're not going to win many games. They'll see it plenty of negative game scripts. Um, so he should be fine from like a PPR perspective. The problem will be, you know, if we're expecting an Ashton Gentie, you know, from a fantasy production kind of season,

Gentie played a little bit below expectation versus where he was drafted last year. Love isn't going to be drafted as high as Gentie was last year. You know, like he's already in early best ball. He's like an early third type player. If he stays that way, and I would imagine in like a home league, season long league, even FFPC, you know, we're going to be looking at him probably still in that range, you know, late second in most cases. that's an area where I'm more okay. You know, if you're approaching like Chase Brown land,

I'm not going to really be as it because I think Chase Brown is undervalued. But, you know, in that like in that like two, three turn area, it's not like there's so many obvious picks to make. And so I think that he just naturally kind of lands there. It's some really interesting take. And I think the Gibbs one is probably the one where I'm like, okay, I can see it. But I wonder if this organization is going to look at Tyler, Algier,

James Connor combination. in the same light as like David Montgomery. Well, I look at like the Adam Schaefter tweet where he was like Tyler Auxer signed with Arizona thinking he's going to be a starter. I think that's probably what Arizona thought when they signed him too. But then through searching through the draft, they identified Love as like the best possible value. So Al Jir has never been a guy.

I mean, rookie year he had the thousand rushing yards and then quickly supplanted by Bejohn Robinson. I don't know if he'll be as much of a thorn in the side of Jeremiah Love. And I do think we're getting, like you said, a little bit of a discount on where we had to take Gentie. Gentie was like a one-two turn pick immediately. Love is like a two-three turn pick, which the ADP is very similar to rookie year, Jemir Gibbs. So I think if it stays in this range, I'm going to draft a lot of Jeremiah Love. I think structurally you're better off with him being like you're running back too and not like an anchor running back as the early season production.

But really interesting stuff. Your thoughts on Mackay Lemon, this is another player where. there's mixed opinions out there. I'm sort of battling it out with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield about his fit in the Philadelphia offense. I think the fact that they took him at 20 overall makes me think Philadelphia is going to try to use them on the outside and try to fast track him as soon as we get this expected A.J. Brown trade going down.

There's others like Brett who are a little bit apprehensive about Jalen Hertz's ability to pass over the middle consistently and sort of elevate him. where are you out on on mckeye lemon from like a landing spot perspective i guess the draft capital is sort of expected we thought he'd go in like that 12 through 20 range um but i i kind of like the landing spot but it's very mixed here i'm probably in the middle from a landing spot perspective only because i think that he you know this is obviously hindsight analysis when it comes like amen ross st brown but you know if if you're thinking about where mckelly lemon could

dominate in fantasy it would be in sort of an amen ross same brown type role where you get a quarterback who's great in those timing routes at the very least. And we, we had that with Jared Gough. And then you had a wide open depth chart for Amon Ross St. Brown to dominate. And I, again, I know that, I mean, to be fair, this that model liked Aminara St. Brown versus where he was drafted, but nowhere did anyone think that he would, you know, necessarily be a top five wide receiver in the game, you know. And so, you know, with Mackay Lemon, he didn't find that exact spot in location. But the one thing I'll say is that I'm not a believer because of the draft capital that the Eagles, a smart organization drafted Lemon to just play him as a slot receiver. You know, it's just if you look at history, you know, if you look at day two wide receivers who were drafted, who had slot rates, you know, above the 60% above the 70% mark, there's a lot of bus.

Like there's a lot of guys who just didn't work out despite having good analytical profiles, whether you're looking at, you know, slot yards per out. perimeter yards per out run, total yards per out run, whatever the case may be. There are guys who busted. Elijah Moore is a good example, you know, who had really, really good. I mean, you had an opportunity to flip Elijah Moore, but, you know, who had, and I, I didn't flip Elijah more, unfortunately, but who had really good, you know, perimeter yards per out run rates as more or less full-time slot players. And they end up not really translating to that next level.

So when you look at those players and that architecture, type where it's, you know, a north of a 70, 60 percent kind of slot rate, but then a really high perimeter yard per route run rate, which is what Mackay Lemon had. It was over three yards per run. You get at the very top, so like if you're looking at like the guys who really dominated in yards per out run, it's Jackson Smith and Jigba. He dominated on the perimeter, but he also dominated in the slot. Next on that list, if you look over the last five or so years, would be McKay Lemon, right? So he's in between that. And then on the other end, you know, you just get a bunch of dudes who, you know, played the slot a lot. They busted as day two picks,

et cetera, et cetera. And so I've been joking this week when I brought this up. And I'm like, so basically, Mackay Lemon's range of outcomes are Elijah Moore to Jackson Smith and Chicka. Right. So it's just this, this massive, massive range of outcome. But what I, what I really am saying here is that with Lemon, um, being drafted in the first round, if you look at other slot receivers with that kind of draft capital since 2020, Jerry Judy, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Waddle, Canarias Tony is the only bad one really. Drake London, well, Traylon Berks also, J.S.N, Jordan Addison, Emeka, Bucca, and then Mackay Lemon and Casey Concepcion. I just, I have a hard time believing that a team like

Philadelphia, smart organization drafts a quote unquote slot guy to just play them in the slot when they haven't even deployed and used their slot players, you know, at that high of a rate. To me, their moves of Mackay Lemon and Eli Stowers with a brand new offensive coordinator tells me that they are going to be changing up this offense in some way. And what wins in the NFL is a lot of those crossing routes, a lot of the stuff that goes on in the middle of the field. And I think McKay Lemon can win there. And at the very least, like, he can play on the perimeter.

And, you know, I do think that because of this landing spot, instead of just hitting like a 50th percentile outcome for Mikey Lemon, he's got to probably hit more from like a talent perspective, he's got to hit more of that like 70th, 75th percentile outcome for him to really be a fantasy, a great fantasy asset. but I still think it's very, very possible. He's still, he's not the same tier as Tate and Tyson for me, but he's the top of that next year. I'd take him over Casey Concepcion, who I actually like a lot.

I have him in the same tier. And I would also take him over Generian Price at this point. Yeah, so I think he's right there with those guys for me. I've sort of stumped for him above them. I like Lemon a lot. And I think the 75th percentile, I think he could hit it. And I think he's also going to be boosted by an organization that really knows what they're doing personnel-wise.

They've had a bunch of hits in the draft over the years. And I think that the ecosystem offensively is going to be strong there. Like you said, it's a double tap of these high-quality, very productive college receivers. Stowers is sort of an overgrown wide receiver playing tight end. And then you've got Leman, who was this unbelievably productive Bolitnikoff winner at USC. Talk about Casey Concepcion because that's another one where unlike Mackay Lemon, who's like a low-end wide receiver three. And unlike Carnal Tate and Jordan Tyson, who are trending towards nearing the wide receiver two land,

you're able to get Casey Concepcion for free, basically, in best ball. He's down at like wide receiver 50 range. I like the landing spot. And I like the offensive coordinator in Todd Munkin. I look at Casey Concepcion as a player that can sort of rise tides and be the most valuable pass catcher in Cleveland. Harold Fandon Jr., it's probably a hard one to overcome. but I think Casey Concepcion can also get similar target numbers to Fanon. Look, I think Concepcion is immediately the best talent at wide receiver that they have on that team.

And so, you know, Jerry Judy, if you're thinking about from like a long term perspective, Jerry Judy, they have an out in his contract next year. Cetrick Tillman's already, you know, he's a free agent next year, but they're already talking about trading him away. And then they draft Denzel Boston, who is not the same kind of receiver at all compared to Concepcion. And I have way more red flags and potential issues with Boston's profile than I do Concepcion. With Concepcion, I think what's really intriguing, you mentioned Todd Monkin. We just saw Todd Monkin get a lot out of Zay Flowers from an efficiency standpoint in Baltimore.

And you could realistically make the argument that Concepcion's like a slightly bigger version of Zay Flowers from a prospecting standpoint. He had a better production profile. He's an early declare, you know, better age-adjusted production. I didn't really like love Zay Flower. coming out, you know, from a, like, he's exceeded my expectations. But the fact that you have Monkin who did what he did with Zay Flowers in Baltimore, now being in Cleveland, and this is their first round pick that they made, you know, the first player that they picked that wide receiver, I think is telling to a degree. You know, Concepcion, if you look at his career numbers, they could be a little bit better.

But when you adjust for age and you realize that he's an early declare and he only played three collegiate seasons, we had last year at A&M where he was playing inside out where we saw that he can win on the outside a lot more, which is really nice from a projection and forecasting standpoint. Yeah, I mean, like, do I think that he's going to dominate this year? No, I don't think that's like the likely outcome, but do I think that if I'm in like double digit rounds in a redraft league or a best ball league, I'm going to be eyeing talent? And like I said, I think he's the most talented wide receiver that they have. I think he's a really good player, has a really versatile, you know, profile, which also gets a little bit of love in the Zapp model, which is another thing.

why I'm making that connection to Zay Flowers. Because Zay Flowers had kind of an untraditional wide receiver profile as well from a local perspective coming out. And I see that in Concepcion as well. So, you know, will he be a 15 PPR point per game, 16 PPR point per game player at the next level? Maybe not. But I think that there's definitely a scenario where we're getting 13, 14 points per game

from him pretty consistently. Yeah, I love that one. And I comped him to Zay Flowers very early on throughout the draft process. And now we're going to get to, see him in sort of the Zay Flowers role, but with potentially better game flow and more target volume without the rushing threat at quarterback in Lamar Jackson. I mean, Quintchon Judkin's going to take on a lot of volume, but he's certainly not going to take on Derek Henry volume. Maybe, maybe close to it. I don't know. We'll see how that shakes out. And JJ, if you get your prospect

guide, you also get access to JJ's takes on all the second year players. You can see his Quinn John Judkin and Dylan Samson takes from this Cleveland backfield. But How are you enjoying your time off now, JJ, that you're done updating all these prospects? You know, I enjoyed it for a couple days. And then I'm just back back at it, you know, doing, uh, doing some work for the late round draft guide that that'll go out. You know, typically it's gone out July 1st every year. But now I'm, I'm immersing myself a lot more in season long stuff. We have some really, really cool research that we're doing, uh, myself and Brandon Godula, who I hired on at the beginning of this year, uh, to work with me at late round.

So I'm excited, man. you know, the draft guide's happening, you know, over the next couple months. And I got the podcast still working on all that. I have a cool episode that's going to come out next week that I'm excited for. So, you know, the grind don't stop in this business, man. You just got to keep going even after some of these tent pole events end. Yeah, your podcasts are great. I've had a chance to come on your podcast before.

And I like how you mix it up where I get the JJ podcast that I can listen to in like a commute while I'm driving because they're quick form. and then you also get the long-form ones that are like the gym podcast. So you're offering multiple forms of getting your information. And yeah, make sure you check out the prospect guide. I've read it. It's fantastic.

It gets better every single year. And visually, it looks great. So I'm really looking forward to what you put out with the redraft guide as well. Look for that around July 1st. Are we, we're holding your feet to the fire on the July 1st, early state or let's give you a little wiggle.

Let's not, let's not do that. Early July. Early July. Early July. That goes early July is technically probably up until like the 10th, 11th, 12th. That's still early for me. Like a week of wiggle room.

Yeah. 100%. One player who exploded in your Zapp model, we talked about in the pre-draft process a couple of weeks back, Kenyon Sadiq. And the draft capital ends up being terrific. He goes at 16 overall, which is very similar. Maybe this is a trend, JJ, where we've seen it for three drafts in a row, where you get this like 10 to 15 range where we get a tight end going.

We saw it. Brock Bowers. We saw it with Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland. Now we're seeing with Kenyon Sadiq, but I just rattled off three names that are like top four, top five dynasty tight ends. Kenyon Sadiq goes very similarly. Frank Reich seemed ecstatic to get him. And he's in a Jets offense that needs playmakers. I know they have a lot of quote unquote mouse to feed now with the Omar Cooper selection. Garrett Wilson still being there, Brice Hall. But Sadiq, I think landed pretty well. Where are you at on that one? Yeah, look, Frank Reich is actually a pretty good coordinator when it comes to like four tight ends specifically. I don't want anyone to clip that and say that I think

that he's a good coordinator. We won't. We won't. Yeah, yeah. If you if you look at what he's done over his 10 seasons is either head coach or an offensive coordinator, Brandon Godula actually noted this in the prospect guy because he does all the tight end writeups for that guide now. But his teams have have ranked outside the top 20 just once in tight end target share. They were top five, four times out of 10 seasons for Frank Reich. So more than likely we're going to see a lot of tight end targets in this offense, which is why he's probably pretty excited. Now, when you look at Sadiq as a prospect analytically,

um, do I think that he's, he's not in the same level as Colston Loveland, especially, Brock Bowers, especially and even probably a Tyler Warren. Warren is a little bit different because he was a little bit older than, than like what we got from Loveland. You know, Loveland had an unbelievable age-adjusted production profile. Brock Bowers was even better. And so those guys are sort of like, you know,

they're the guys who score 100 in the Zapp model, right? But Kenyon Sadiq had a really good score. And people have been coming at me about this because they're a little bit confused by how a player like this who does have some question marks from a production standpoint could score, you know, in like 97 range or whatever in the Zat model, 97, 98 range. And the main reason for that is, I mean, it's about eightfold, but he gets good draft capital.

That's obviously going to, you know, play some role here. He's very athletic. We know that athleticism matters. And yes, his production isn't like phenomenal. If you look at his career yards per out run rate, for instance, you know, you're looking at like a 74th percentile number among all tight ends that are in the Zapp model database since 2011, which includes, or sorry, well, the yards per out run stuff will go back to 2020 when I'm referencing percentile, which, includes all players who were drafted or at the NFL combine. And so, you know, a 1.72 number is pretty weak at face value. But he's also only 21 years old.

He's barely over 21 right now. And what I've done is I went back and I looked at some of the, the strong, tight end performers, you know, across the NFL right now, a Trey McBride, a Sam Leporta. No one had the question marks that they had about them like they do Sadiq, uh, from a production standpoint, despite the fact that through three seasons, during their collegiate careers, they had just as, as quote unquote, bad, of yards per out run profiles as Kenyon Sadiq.

It was nearly identical through their first three years. They just played an additional season in college where they were able to boost that number up, which is why I think the age discussion is very important for Sadiq. And if you look at top 100 draft picks at tight end over the last, you know, basically since 2011, you can see that there's hit after hit after hit among players who are under 21 and a half years old.

Now, Sadiq isn't as good from a production standpoint as some of those players, like a Harold Fanon had a better breakout score, for instance, which is my, my metric that I use at a wide receiver in tight end. It's adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. So to adjust for strength of schedule and it adjusts for age. But even still, I don't think his production profile is as bad as people are making it out to be. Do I think that there's a very real outcome that he's Noah Fant?

Yeah, because Noah Fant is one of those players that was drafted in the top 100. It was under 21.5 years old that had a questionable, kind of questionable production profile. Like I say kind of questionable. It was still a good production profile. And so I look at this. And I think that part of the issue too is that with tight end, the position just sucks in fantasy football, right?

Like we get, we get like six or seven good elite like awesome tight ends that we're using every year in fantasy football per decade, you know? And so when you make the comps of a Kenyan Sadiq to know a fan, which is a very real comp, everyone freaks out and they're like, this guy's terrible. But realistically, you're not going to get really good comps for almost any tight end in general. It's just not going to happen very free because there's not many good tight ends in general to choose from the comp to.

And so I'm still okay with drafting him. I think that there's, I'll like him more probably, you know, I don't even want to say that. I was going to say I'd like him more in dynasty than redraft. I don't know, we'll see where the dust settles from a redraft perspective. I think he's properly valued in rookie drafts right now. not taking him over the wide receivers we talked about. You know, Titan Premium, I think that he's more in that tier with those, you know, the Lemon and Concepcion, non-tight-end premium.

I think he's after those guys. So I'm basically at market with Sadiq, but I like to come on shows like this to at least show you the pro side of Sadiq because I feel like in the fantasy community, we only hear about the bad side of Kenyon Sadiq. Yeah, and a lot of the analytics guys kind of attack him for the production, but the guy did have 51 receptions last year at Oregon. He set the record for the most program history in a single season. And he did it with Jamari Johnson, where if you're starting to dive into the 2027 rookie class weeds, Jamari Johnson is brought up as like a top top three tight end lock.

Yeah. And for some people, their tight end one overall in the class right now. So I get it. Kenyon Sadiq didn't ever hit a 20% target share. There's a couple of red flags there. But I think that they, really like him. He's been connected to the Jets throughout the process, has the elite athleticism. I'm with you also. I don't take him ahead of Casey Concepcion, certainly not ahead of McKay Lemon and not ahead of Judarian Price, even in FFPC. But right after that, I think he's kind of an edge pick. Sweet spot. Yeah. Yeah, 100%. And he's sort of, he's a saving grace for you in that 108 range. You had Eli Stowers as your tight end to in the class. I think most do. My question for you would be we have this massive, massive gap between tight end two and tight end three in current

rookie draft data. Despite a ton of tight ends being selected, no one can really come to a consensus as to who is the tight end three. And it's created, I think, potential value opportunity where if you can nail it and pick the best prospect or a player that turns out to pan out because of his environment, among the other tight ends, you might end up with a real value. So I've sort of been attacking players like Eli Raritan, Oscar Delp, Justin Jolie, Max Clare, and my rookie drafts. Curious where you're at on this one, do you have a clear cut tight end three behind the big two right now? I think it's Eli Raritan.

And I say that for two reasons. Number one, I think that he's a good prospect, right? Like his height adjusted speed scores in the 84th percentile, you know, he's an athlete. His breakout score is in the 74th percentile. So it's not bad. It's not fantastic. but it's certainly not bad. And realistically, so I'm doing it from, I think he's talented.

I think that there's something there. And then obviously the fit being with Drake May and there's not like super established pass catchers there. I know they have Hunter Henry, but, you know, especially from a dynasty perspective, long term, he could be gone next year. So that's really good. And I also think about like, I do think immediate opportunity does matter at positions like this.

You know, you could make the argument for any position. But the thing that that I see with tight end is that, you're not more, you're more than likely not going to get any production at all from a tight end that you draft and your rookie draft in year one. Like you're more than likely not going to get much at all in terms of usability, guys you're going to throw on your roster. And the dynasty market for tight end doesn't seem very forgiving anecdotally. You know, it's like Terrence Ferguson's a great example of that where he was a good prospect last year. You know, like athletic, pretty good production profile, played amongst other good teammates and such, like had that going for him. And then he goes to a great landing spot.

That team ends up using a lot of heavy personnel, but they're also known for not using their rookies at a very high clip. And so you see his dynasty value tank, right? Whereas, you know, the opposite can happen if you're in a situation like Tyler Warren was in, where he had all the opportunity in the world. He's obviously very good. But, you know, Tyler Warren, in my opinion,

isn't as talented as a Colston Loveland, for instance. And obviously Loveland, you know, had the stretch down down at the end of the season that allows, his dynasty value to stay afloat and to rise because we see the ceiling with him now. But my point is, is that with Eli Raritan, he at least has that year one opportunity to some degree that we could see towards the end of the year where the value may not tank the same way that in Oscar Delp's value might take. And I like Oscar Delp. I think there's a lot to that profile that's interesting. But he's at best going to be probably the fourth number four option, number five

option, you know, if you count like an ETN or something in that offense. And that's a team also that's run a lot more 11 personnel under Kellynne more than 12. And so with Joanne Johnson's still there, you got to kind of wait a minute. And when you have to wait, the dynasty community isn't very forgiving about that. It's one of the reasons why I'm impatient. Right. It's one of the reasons why I'm a little bit like, like I've drafted Ty Simpson because rookie draft just suck this year and you're just like, sure, I'll go that route. But you have to recognize you're holding onto an asset that's I'll be not going to immediately appreciate and value. And that's something that you just have to recognize and understand when you're drafting,

you know, a player that's going to be a backup or, you know, a tight end in this case, who, you know, most tight ends aren't going to really produce in year one. But I do think Eli Raritan has that opportunity and you combine that with his talent profile. That's why he's my, my tight end three. Yeah, mine as well. And I actually steamed him up in the dynasty rankings. I did a positional ranking update. And I sent a message to like Thomas Tipple and Ryan Heath and Scott Barrett this morning.

and I'm like, is Titan 21 overall too spicy for Eli Raritan? I love his pathway in 2027. It's probably a little much, but I think when we look back, he could be the guy that gains a ton. Hunter Henry is 32 years old. They could easily move off of him. And I think Drake May could end up being a kingmaker. We didn't see it last year where like Stefan Diggs was pretty effective, but let's get him some horses and let him a little more experience. And maybe we look back a couple of years from now,

We're like, we want all of the past catchers attached to Drake May because he's elevated so many guys around him with his accuracy, his mobility, all the good stuff. One player putting a major challenge to the Zapp model is Jadarian Price. I know he scored low and he doesn't have that receiving profile as a collegiate that I know your Zapp model leans into, JJ. When you look at Jeterian Price is this one where you're going to adjust things, draft capital, maybe the talent, maybe the situation. reflective to your model. Like this is a kind of a head scratcher for I know a lot of people right now. Yeah, I mean, look, here's the realistically, though, his score isn't that bad in the Zapp model because there's a teammate score and Jeremiah, and it's based on draft capital of

teammates. And Jeremiah Love one third overall. So he got a huge boost. And then obviously price going in the first round at the end of the first round, you know, he gets a boost for that as well from just an overall score perspective. But yeah, I mean, like if you look at top 100 picks in Zat model history, he's got the worst production profile of any running back that we've ever seen. On one hand, that's really bad news. On the other hand, you can say something's going on here. You know, this is probably an outlier

type situation of some sort. And I think that's, I'm kind of in the middle there where like I recognize that this is definitely not a normal situation for a running back to be in. But also, there are some red flags that just make, you know, I approach prospecting from a perspective of like, not good versus bad, but volatile versus not voluble, right? Like, security versus insecurity, right? And for me, Janarian Price is just a highly, highly volatile prospect.

And then I start to weigh what that ceiling outcome could look like and what the floor outcome could look like. I do think the floor is kind of scary for price because we quite literally have not seen him as a bell cow back, right? Like we don't know what he would look like in that kind of role. Do I think the ceiling is top 10 in dynasty though? I don't really think that mostly because, you know, in this system he should work really well.

And it's like, because they're going to continue this zone scheme, you know, he can, he can, he can break off big runs and he can work the perimeter and, and, you know, be sort of like a Kenneth Walker type for that offense, right? From like a ground game perspective, it's not as big. But it's a very similar sort of like style and idea, right, for a player like price. The thing that I'm a little bit afraid of is some teams will value that more from a real football perspective than they will a fantasy football perspective. they're trying to build a team in real life, not in fantasy. And in fantasy, we care about having three down workhorses who can catch passes out of the backfield. And Janerian Price, regardless of what you think of him as a runner, most people agree that he has a lot of question marks still as a receiver and in pass pro. And so my question is, you know, like that I'm

asking myself about price and how to value him is that yes, situationally and fit and draft capital, it all aligned for price, which is why, you know, I still have him in that tier with Lemon and Concepcion. Now, I have him at the bottom of that tier when he goes above that very frequently, if not all the time, above like Concepcion. But the question I have is like, is that receiving ceiling ever going to hit? And what's this going to look like if and when they have another, you know, a 1A or 1B, you know, compliment in that backfield that's, that's more legitimate. And not only that, but to start the season, you know, they're not going to probably give him that Belcow workload right away, even if it's just Emmanuel Wilson and George Halani.

And so my worry would be if Zach Charbonnet does get back on the field in like late November this year or early December, that's when price would hypothetically be really coming into form and really gathering that big workload. But oh, now we have a bigger body to Charbonnet who's really reliable, who can at least play the goal line stuff and do the goal line stuff for us. So that's really my question marks. Like my fear is that from a fantasy football standpoint, he's really. He's a between the 20s guy, and he's not a goal line guy and a huge receiving threat.

And that just doesn't win fantasy leagues. Whereas in real football, that can still be very valuable from an expected points perspective. So, you know, my question mark, my, my questions with Price are, is he a good enough receiver? Is he good enough in pass pro? And will he actually carry that big more workload? Does he have a top 10 ceiling in dynasty? Sure, it's in his range of outcomes, but I feel much more comfortable thinking like top 20

ceiling. And I'm trying to adjust and sort of properly weigh him that way. Yeah. I think the dream for a lot of us who have backed Price is sort of the James Cook outcome. I do think that we'll know really quickly. You bring up George Halani. I think George Halani is probably his competition for pass pro. Yeah.

They liked Talani last year a little bit. So that'll be interesting. But I do think there's a chance like you talk about getting off to a fast start. I think Price also could get off to a really fast start. A lot of pressure on him with the big playability, the explosive run rate and all that sort of stuff. But he is in an offense where we saw it. with Kenneth Walker, so I think he'll get that opportunity. Let us know in the comments, are you optimistic or pessimistic about Judarian Price right now?

And that's Seattle offense and where are you drafting him right now in baseball and also your dynasty rookie drafts? Let's rip through some of your vet. Actually, you know, let's one more rookie. I'd like to ask you about. And I heard you have a positive take about this player. And it's a player that I've been drafting in a lot of second rounds. Is Jeremy Bernard underrated right now? I think so.

do I think that he's an outstanding wide receiver? No. But when I look at the Zapp model, first off, you know, the the inputs of that model are breakout score as a main input at wide receiver, but it also looks at versatility. So it looks at some like rushing production metrics and stuff like that. He hits on the versatility side because they line, they can line them up everywhere. Obviously, he played, you know, enough in the slot. And I think that's where he's going to play to start his, his NFL career. But he had sort of that versatile profile and his breakout score was above the 50th percentile. It wasn't phenomenal, but I said it earlier, like day two wide receivers, I would at least pre-show with you.

Day two wide receivers in this class, none of them really stand out as being phenomenal. Like none of them look great from like a breakout score perspective or anything like that. And so I look at Bernard and his score, realistically, Theo, is not far off from like Omar Cooper in the Zapp model. You know, like it's not super, super far off, but from a rookie draft perspective. And from a, you know, in dynasty, he'll go a full round after Omar Cooper, which is a huge capital, like a huge, huge difference in overall investment. And so I look at Bernard and I look at Pittsburgh where, you know, Mike McCarthy has favored slot receivers in the past. We've seen that. But also Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf, there are outs for both of them

contract wise next year. And so we could see a very big change similar to Cleveland where in 27, the Steelers team looks completely different than they do in 2026. And that could benefit a player like Bernard, who obviously will be on the second year of his rookie contract, who I think is, you know, not only that his, now his production metrics are not phenomenal. Like he had a sub 2.0 career yards per out run rate. That's always a red flaggy type, you know, a place to be. It's at 1.9. Players traditionally don't hit at a very high rate with that low of yards per out run profiles.

The one thing I'll say, though, is that if you look at his, his career, collegiate career, he played with a lot of NFL players throughout all of it. He was in Washington at one point with the Washington guys, you know, Adunzei McMillan, Jalen Polk. I mean, we're still counting him as an NFL player. Denzel Boston. He was at Michigan State to start his career with Jaden Reed and Keon Coleman. And then last year, you know,

then he's been playing with Ryan Williams. I mean, like, he has played with legitimate, legitimate NFL competition. And he still put up a decent enough 52, 52, 52nd percentile breakout score. So you combine all of that. I'm just saying like, do I think that he has a massive ceiling?

Probably not. Do I think he has a better floor than a lot of the guys that you're drafting, you know, in round two? Yes. And maybe you say, oh, I want to go after a Chris Bell type or something like that to get that ceiling outcome. Fine.

They're in the same tier for me. That's fine. If you want to really shoot for that upside. But what I'm saying is I think oftentimes, you know, we misdiagnose upside in fantasy football from a rookie standpoint. an evaluation standpoint because we assume that situation is going to look a certain way. But I think Pittsburgh situation could look a lot different as soon as next year.

So I've been drafting Bernard. You know, I think Antonio Williams is one of the players that that if you want that more immediate return with a similar archetype, go that route. That's fine. But I don't totally, totally mind Bernard amongst a bunch of other players that I just think are very average. Yeah, I mean, Bernard had the draft capital that we wanted to see. And he gets in this power slot role that Mike McCarthy is utilized in the past.

So I'm into him. Also, Michael Pittman and D.K. Meckoff will both be like 29 years old, hanging into 2027. So I'm into Jeremy Bernard. I've drafted a lot of them. Goes somewhere in like that 203 to 210 range consistently. Lock second rounder, but not somebody you're having to like trade up to get. So I definitely like him inside a round too. As promised, we're going to get to some of JJ's veteran winners post-NFL draft.

So let's rip through these ones. Brock Bowers, is he set to return to tight end one overall land? Trey McBride could end up with Carson Beck behind center and now a pass catching running back, whereas Brock Bowers avoided literally any wide receiver of note whatsoever besides Jalen Niller this offseason. And he could be in kind of the JSN role as a tight end. Yeah, look, Malik Benson is who they drafted day three. And it's, to me, a really dumb pick because it is. is just a duplicate of what they sort of already have on that roster.

It's a, you know, they already have field stretchers. They have like a Thornton and a Trey Tucker and these guys who can play that kind of down the field role. And that's to me what I evaluated with Benson and what I thought about Benson. And I'm not afraid of that as anything significant. You mentioned Jalen Naylor. If you want to throw the dart and best ball, fine.

But what are the odds that Jalen Naylor ends up being a significant piece for us, right? Jack Bess was a huge disappointment last year. I mean, it's all stacking up to, hopeful upgrade a quarterback, even if it's Kirk Cousins, right? A hopeful upgrade at quarterback with a hopefully better offensive line play in a better system with Clint Kubiak there. And so there's a very real chance that Brock Bowers just sees so much work in that offense. I think when the dust, you know, when when when when I'm redoing my redraft rankings this

month, I'm, I'm just going to have Brock Bowers ahead of Tray McBride straight up from a, from a, like I just don't see the reason why we wouldn't necessarily the more that I've thought about it where, you know, McBride isn't an offense that, like you said, the quarterback situation is kind of up in the air, at least what we might see down the stretch, which is a really big deal. They have more competition at pass catcher there. They had a somewhat unsustainable passing volume last year where that's probably going to regress by, you know, maybe three or four pass attempts per game. It's a brand new system.

So there's more ambiguity with that as well. And in Trey McBride, I can't believe we're saying this. He ran hot in the touchdown column down the stretch last year, you know, like he, he was running real hot as a touchdown score. So that scares me a lot about McBride. I think McBride's overvalued right now. I think Bowers is kind of undervalued in these early bestball drafts.

Yeah, I agree with you. I think the flippening is sort of happening where they're really close to one another in like FFPC. On Underdog, you're seeing them closer post NFL draft than they were a few weeks ago where you were getting like maybe 10 spots between Bowers and

McBride. But I mean, we just have to go back to Bowers as rookie season, how good he was, how effective he was. And now we get to see him in a Clint Kubiak offense, which has an improved offensive line. And he's going to be the number one target. So I'm completely with you. I think Bowers, when it's all said and done, it's going to be my tight end one for the season. And McBride sort of feels like a good structural pick as opposed to like an edge pick right now when you take him inside a round two. So I'm with you, man. I think Bowers is back. another player who I think is underrated and I heard your take on him as well,

Chase Brown, who's been not only really effective, but also an extremely high volume player and gets receiving work. Now for back-to-back seasons, the Bengals basically told you they don't care about improving their running back depth whatsoever. Somaget P. Ryan, Taj Brooks are backing him up. And this could be one of the better offenses in football. Chase Brown looks set to smash.

Yeah, I think that Chase Brown should, I think he belongs in the tier that is after, you know, that like one two turn tier at running back that we often see. You know, the the Barclays, the A Chans, you know, like I have them ahead of Amarion Hampton right now, even though I love, like I loved Hampton as a prospect and I love the Chargers offense this year. I just think Chase Brown's undervalued, right? Like there's, there was some chance that they were going to invest in running back in the NFL draft as we felt last year. They did get Tosh Brooks last year. but Brooks to me is very much a sort of like career backup type player. You know, he's an early down guy.

He doesn't have a crazy pass catching profile. And Chase Brown last year from week six onward, which is when Flacco got there and then they played Burrow at the end of the year. He averaged a 67% running back rush share per game rate. He had a 14% target share per game, 19.4 PPR points per game. He averaged 21.5 ppr points per game from week eight onward last season. Only CMC, Bejohn Robinson and Jemir Gibbs were better than Chase Brown during that stretch.

Now, I know that like P. Rhine, you know, like he can steal some work and he was banged up a little bit. I get all of that. But in the end, the Bengals now have gone two years telling us that they feel comfortable with Chase Brown in this role. And we know pretty confidently this is a good offense. I think a lot of people have anchoring bias when it comes to Chase Brown and what he did to start last year and they're like, man, why did I spend the second round pick on Chase Brown? It's such a bust. It was such a bad idea. The dude was sort of a league winner last year.

Like he was really, really, really good down the stretch and they didn't do anything to change that. Not only that, I always try to look at what's going on at a higher level with these teams and how much has changed year over year. Not much has changed for Cincinnati in terms of how they're going to run the offense, the personnel they have, all that kind of stuff. And so that makes me feel even better about. Chase Brown's projection.

Yeah, I mean, I look at some of the running backs around Chase Brown, and I wonder if he should be ranked ahead of a Sequin Barclay. I wonder if he should be ranked ahead of a Kenneth Walker. You're getting him in a range that it feels like a real bargain, where I can start my draft out with a wide receiver draft Chase Brown at like 19 overall, 18 overall. And I feel really good about that start. He's really good. And the passing game work last year, ended up from from 2024. I think a lot of people were kind of angry about the way last season started, but the way it finished was the same as the year before.

Like you said, Chase Brown, a league winner. So completely into that one. Let's pivot over to another backfield. And one player you listed as a winner was Kyle Menungai. I talked to a little bit about in the pre-show, is this sort of an anti-Di-Di-Di-Di-Di why don't you share your thoughts on Monongi? Yeah, it wasn't really an anti-Swift take. I'm not even the biggest Menungai fan in the world.

Like, he definitely played better than I expected him to last year. But a lot of people would assume that like his yards after contact per tent must be amazing. Because if you watch him play, you can see him just just bowling over players. It's not really the case. Like his numbers weren't like that phenomenal last year from an advanced metric standpoint. But they didn't do anything to add to that backfield. Like it's, it's that this is their one two punch. And look, when the off season started, I remember saying that I thought they could add to that backfield.

But if I were them, I wouldn't add to that backfield. back deal because I think it's serviceable enough when they are in win now mode and they have other needs elsewhere. I wouldn't be like putting a lot of resources to the to the running back position. And so the fact they didn't, you now have Monongai playing the one B role in that office. I don't think he's going to be much of a pass catcher. So this is more of like a flex play with a healthy DeAndre Swift. But there's upside if DeAndre Swift goes down. Last year, we saw one game where Kyle Menungai had a greater than 60% snap rate.

he was the RB3 in PPR scoring that week. So there's clear contingent upside with Kyle Munungai in a good offense and one that we're bullish on and one that has a great coordinator and head coach. To me, this is a, you know, I like the range from a zero RB perspective or even, you know, even just like a depth perspective, you know, if you're looking at running back. I love going after like a quorum and monongai because both of them, in my opinion, can have flex appeal. And then the injury upside is just great for both of them.

Yeah, I'm with you. And also Ben Johnson has such a strong history of being like a two running back kingmaker in terms of ADP. Multiple years of success with not only one running back, but two running backs beating their ADP. He did it last year. Could do it again this year. You're on team basal Tutin, which I was happy to see JJ. There's a lot of interesting takes on the Jacksonville backfield. But Tutin certainly walks away from the draft as a winner.

Yeah, look, I don't mind Chris Rodriguez in like a best ball environment where you don't have to pick when. those touchdowns might happen if he's the goal line guy or what have you. But the dude has six career receptions. And historically, when you look at guys who have been below 20 receptions after three years, they don't become, you know, eight or nine percent target share type players. It just does not happen. And so that gives me a little bit of faith in Bechal Tootin and that potential. Now, obviously, LeQuin Allen is going to play a third down role in that offense.

And there's a very real chance that Bechal Tutin is a between the 20s, not getting the high leverage touch. kind of player, which would be a problem for fantasy and it would give him more of a floor rather than the ceiling. But I think of all the guys in that backfield, he's the one with the ceiling. Like he was a good prospect in my eyes coming out. It wasn't just a combine thing for me. I thought his production profile was really good. They invested in the tight end position, as we saw in the draft. And, you know, James Gladstone even said they want to, they want to, they're sort of like coasting with the meta right now in the NFL, which tells me that they're going to,

use heavier personnel after being top five, top six, and 11 personnel last season. And so if they do have heavier personnel, that's going to benefit the running backs in their running lanes and their ability to generate, you know, good yards per carry, et cetera. And Tudin was good at the goal line last year. So I think that there's not an, it's not automatic that Chris Rodriguez just gets all of the goal line work because he's a bigger dude. Like Tudin was good in short yardage situations last season. He was really good within success rate, especially better than ETN was within success

rates. So I like Tootin. The fact they didn't add it running back just makes me feel really good about him when, you know, if you were to tell us at the beginning of the off season that the biggest competition for him is going to be Chris Rodriguez, we probably would be buying him right now. Yeah, it's exactly. You nailed it. And also like, Rodriguez has no past catching ability whatsoever. Nobody's even targeted him throughout his career. There is a scenario where Basial Tutin is the high value touch guy out of the backfield. Maybe Rodriguez eats up some of those between. the 20s carries to take the load off of Tutin,

but Tutin could also be extremely dangerous in the screen game. There are some parallels between basal Tutin and Chase Brown in terms of year two. And I guess Rodriguez would be the Zach Moss here. I would almost say Le Quint Allen is probably the one who's a little bit more of an impediment for Tutin not smashing because if they do use LeQuin Allen as like the past catching back, that can make this backfield a real mess. But I'm going to bet on Tutin. I'll continue to draft him in bestball.

And I think if you have him in Dynasty, you feel like you walked away from the draft to winner. A wide receiver you listed as a winner who's been sort of under the radar. I know I talked about Tyler Warren with Scott Barrett a couple times on School of Scott, but you're looking at Josh Downs as a potential bounceback guy from the steam we had maybe two years ago. Yeah, I don't mind Tyler Warren at all in season long. I think that he's, I actually think Warren is a better value right now than Colson.

Loveland is just based on opportunity costs and stuff. in early best ball. But Josh Downs, man, I mean, look, they lose Michael Pittman. They don't draft a wide receiver until the end of the draft in Dionne Burks, who is a slot guy. He's 180 pounds. I mean, Dionne Burks is like a gadgety. He's like a Zachariah Branch arbitrage in a way. Like, you could argue. And so it's a very similar situation as what we see in like with Jaden Reed and Green Bay where you had this guy in Josh Downs, who's played this slot primarily. He's been between a 75 and 81% slot rate each year through his three years in the NFL. He only had 82 snaps out wide last year.

Pittman and Pierce were at 398 and 438. So Josh Downs has just played a slot role. But guess what? Michael Pittman's gone. And now his biggest competition after them not investing in wide receiver is Nick Westbrook Aquine to get out there in two wide receiver sets and to play the perimeter. I think Josh Downs is going to get a lot more run on the outside. And if that happens, he could smash because he's been very efficient per route run throughout

his career. The one thing you got to watch out for is like a, you know, Joanne Jennings situation or something like that. You know, I think that's still on the table. But I'll bet on this right now as a double-digit round pick. Like I will, I will bet on a player like Josh Downs, who I thought was a good prospect, really good prospect, uh, who has been really efficient in the NFL so far. And, you know, I think that teams often typecast these players without really allowing them to showcase their talent. And I think Josh Downs is talented enough to be able to get some run on the on the outside. Yeah, it's like a post type sleeper for Josh Downs. It's interesting because I'm enthusiastic about Alec Pierce, but I think there's a lot of people that are mixed on that one. But Pierce,

even if he if Pierce gets 115 targets, like that's a real win for him, 120 targets would be a real win for him. Downs has consistently been a target earner. And I think people are sort of forgetting about him. So you've sort of opened my eyes to that one. Look forward to diving into him throughout the off season. Another wide receiver that had a lot of steam if we go back in time, certainly to after his rookie year and go back to that Brazil game between the Eagles and the Packers, Jaden Reed is another offseason winner for you, JJ. Yeah, it's a very similar logic as Josh Downs, 74 to 76% slot rate in each of his first

three years, but he's been very efficient. 2.2, 2.05, 1.83 yards per route run. He only played 38 wide out wide snaps last year, 89 and 8. games in 2024. So he's very much just been a slot receiver. But Green Bay no longer has Romeo Dobbs. They no longer have Don Tavia and Wicks. They're relying on Christian Watson, who definitely came to form last year, played the best football of his career last year. And then they're relying on Matthew Golden as their other, you know, hypothetical 12 personnel two wide receiver set outside receiver. And there's a world where Jaden Reed just continues to play the slot, sure, but there's

also a world where Matthew Golden isn't him. You know, that Matthew Golden isn't able to take on that role because we certainly didn't see him do that to a strong level in his rookie year. And so now you're in a scenario where Jaden Reed's been very, very good. And Matthew Golden has not proven anything. And so there's a chance that not only is this rotation not going to be happening nearly as much because they don't have the same kind of depth as they did before, but Jaden Reed could just simply outperform Matthew Golden. Like there's a there's a scenario out. out there. Like they they the the Packers are a team that that can win right now. And so they're not going to be suboptimal just because they spent a first round pick on Matthew golden. And so the fact

that that's all that's in his way for being a true full time player when he's been as efficient as he has, that's a big, big win for Jaden Reed. I also think that there's some contingent upside for him with Josh Jacobs potentially. If Josh Jacobs were to miss time, if you look at like the framework of their offense, we've seen LaFleur do this years ago when Aaron Jones went down. we saw those manufactured backfield touches for Jaden Reed. When you look at guys like maybe Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks competing for like the handcuff job, I think Reed's got some outs there. So I know a couple of Ryan Heath and Jacob Sanderson were also really high on him from a dynasty perspective.

So I think Jaden Reed's one where people are sort of warming up to him again was really, really good as a rookie. So we could see that again. And also Green Bay could just be a little more pass happy this year after two big playoff. losses in a row. The last player to talk about got to fit him in. It's another running back winner, Javante Williams out of Dallas. Yeah, I mean, their depth charts horrific behind Javent Williams. I mean, they have Malik Davis, Jaden Blue, and Phil Maffa. You know, Malik Davis has had some runs that have been flashy throughout his career, but he's not like a special back. Jaden Blue did absolutely nothing last year. And Phil Maffa is the definition of a plotter. You know,

Javante Williams, I don't think is necessarily as good as what people probably believe based on his like fantasy production at times last year. But I'm not trying to overthink. I see this similarly as like David Montgomery. I'm not trying to overthink this. You know, like this is a player who just doesn't have that much behind him is in a good offense. He was top 15 in rush share and route share last year.

If they don't add, if they don't do anything to that backfield, Javante Williams could very easily be a solid. solid RB2 for you. And so I think the fact they didn't do anything, you know, in the draft just signals that Javante Williams is going to be the guy once again here in 2026 for them. Yeah. And I think it's going to be a really good offense. And I think Javonte Williams will continue to be a value. It's one where last year it was like found money. And I think some people have trouble paying up in draft capital based on a guy that they were able to get in like the double digit rounds last year. But Javante Williams, the team paid him in the off season. They had

plenty of opportunities to go elsewhere running back wise a lot of free agents on the market and they choose to bring javanti williams back so i think as long as he holds up the volume should be exactly the same as last year and maybe he's even more efficient as a pass catcher so completely with you on that one jj let everybody know once again where they can find your work and what you have coming out yeah uh late round dot com again the draft guy will be out at some point this summer i can't i can't stay to the june first date but it'll be out at some point this summer i got some cool podcasts that are coming out soon. I got one coming out early next week on the impact of NIL and all the college changes, the college landscape changes over the last five years and how that's

impacted our way of evaluating prospects. Really excited for that to drop. But yeah, you can check everything out over on late round.com prospect guide as well. Yeah, check out all of JJ's work. And stick with us here over at Fantasy Points YouTube and Fantasy Football Daily. I'm going to be breaking down some of our early projections with Scott Barrett and Chris Wecht. And then Scott and I, are going to try to do an early Dark Horse League winners conversation. Again, this is vibes-based, but we're going to talk about some players we think are majorly mispriced and could end up being a potentially this year's Jackson Smith and Jigba, this year's Cooper Cup smash season type values. So make sure you stick with us right here at

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