Fantasy Football Daily - Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Dalton Kincaid with Marcus Mosher | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: March 20, 2023

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) welcomes to the show Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) of @PFF and Locked on Cowboys to discuss USC WR Jordan Addison, TCU WR Quentin Johnston, and Utah TE Dalton Kincaid! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5!https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Another episode of On the Clock, I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. It is a beautiful Monday morning and it is also Prospect Guide Delivery Day. Listeners, you can get your hands on the Fantasy Points Prospect Guide as early as like noon today, probably by the time you're listening to this. Today, we have a very special guest, Marcus Mosier of PFF, Lockdown Cowboys, and he's also the host of the Locked On Dynasty podcast. Marcus, welcome to the show, my friend.

Brett, thanks for having me on. Marcus, how long, like, we've probably been what, DMing each other for five to ten years somewhere in there. Yeah. We all be playing a couple leagues together, which is fun. Yeah, that's true. That's true. And then I feel like we've even spitballed, I don't know, player takes. Oh, yeah.

It's got to be at least a decade now that we've been having some. I remember back in the day us having some really good debates on certain guys. I'm hoping we do today. It should be some fun. Heck yeah. Well, so the usual format, as you know, a guy you're higher on the most, a guy you're lower on the most, and then I'll have you pound the table for a team player fit. Let's get started with USC wide receiver Jordan Addison.

No one has come on the pot to talk about him yet. I think the combine is scaring some peeps away. I am very anxious to hear you talk about Jordan. Listen, I get it. The draft community is a little bit scared away from Jordan Addison. When you see that he's 5 foot 11, 170 pounds and runs a officially 449. Like, I get it. That's just not the profile of like a number one receiver.

all this guy did in college was produced. Anytime he was thrown to, he was super productive. I've got the numbers right here for you, Brett. Via pro football focus, the last two years, 93rd percentile receiving grade, 91st percentile separation grade, 91st percentile separation percentage versus single coverage, 88th percentile yards per route run.

He's just super efficient, and I think his game is going to translate well into the NFL because he gets open and he catches everything. That seems like it's a pretty important thing for a receiver. Yeah, the separation stuff is huge. And, you know, we're getting to the point, Marcus, we're like, there's so many small undersized guys in this draft class. There was last year, they're getting smaller and smaller.

So if you're going to throw Addison out because of the size, then you also have to throw out about 15 other players in this draft class. So I'm almost to the point where I'm not even, I've been factoring it's a lot less into my event. valuations than I was before. It reminds me a little bit of Calvin Ridley coming out of Alabama. And I know Ridley was bigger, but he was a sub-190 receiver who did awful in the agility drills.

And people were wondering, including myself, like, I was not a big Calvin Ridley fan, like, okay, how is this going to translate to the NFL? And then you see him in the NFL. It's like, he just gets open and he catches everything. Like, I feel like Addison's going to have a similar role in the NFL. You put him on the right offense as a number two. receiver wouldn't be surprised if he's 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. Yeah, I see that.

I mean, one note I wrote in my scouting point for him is he's an easy separator with high caliber, polish, and technique running routes. You could probably give the the route running title in this class to either JSN or Addison, but Addison is definitely in the mix there. And he does it at all three levels of the field. Really impressive on double moves. Like, he's not the fastest guy in the world, but he finds a way to crunch. crush cornerbacks downfield.

Absolutely crushed them. So I don't think he tested good enough to say athleticism is his calling card. I do think he plays faster than that, though. Kind of like really does, you know. Yes, exactly. And I just think he's such a good fit with so many of these teams, like in the back half of round one. Like if you told me, hey, he's the pick from Minnesota at what do they draft, 22, 23.

It's like, that's perfect. That's the exact type of guy you want to pair with Justin Jefferson. or if you told me, hey, he's the guy that's getting drafted by the Chargers, and you're going to pair him with Justin Herbert for the next five years. I would love it. I think I just think he's one of these receivers that good quarterbacks are absolutely going to love because he's constantly open. For sure.

What do you think of his run-after-catch ability? Because I highlighted this as a big part of his game and something that I feel like not enough people are talking about. I mean, he was really, really good after the catch. They've schemed it up a lot for him. They gave him a lot of design touches, runs even, where he's lining up in the backfield, taking handoffs. I mean, talk about that. It's just different than a guy that we're going to talk about next.

Like, it's not flashy. It's not, listen, we're not going to be posting it on Twitter Monday morning after a game. It's just he'll catch a slant. He'll get seven or eight yards after it, go down without taking a lot of contact, and we move on to the next play. And the data is really good behind it, 75th percentile in yards after the catch per reception, per PFF. again, just very efficient and very smooth and stuff that all I think translates to the NFL really, really well.

I think maybe there's a little bit of Tyler Lockett after the catch where you're going to get what you're going to get, get down, stay healthy, move on to the next play, which is perfectly fine for us. I was just going to say that. I feel like he plays his spots really well. He sees that there's yards to be had. He goes for it.

He doesn't hold back. But when it's time that, you know what, maybe I'm stepping out right here to avoid this hit. He also does that, which at 100, 170 pounds, you'll take that. I also wrote in my scound report that positional versatility is a huge bunch for teams because he can play anywhere. Yes, and I agree.

That's, again, another reason why I think these teams that are drafting in the late teens, early 20s are going to love him. Because if you have a guy like Justin Jefferson, you want to move him around, right? Well, in order to move Justin Jefferson around, you need to have some other receivers that can move around as well. And that's what Addison can do, depending on the. the matchup, hey, we want you in the slot this week because this team has a little bit slower of a slot corner. Perfect. Hey, we want you on the outside to give us a little bit more vertical speed.

Boom, he can do that. It's just really important. It's one of the reasons I think his floor is so high, again, compared to some of the other receivers in this class where you're going to have to play one spot and one spot only. And if you don't thrive there, oh well, I think Addison, to me, is one of the safest prospects of this class. I agree with you. So real quick, not everything is perfect with every prospect. So I did want to ask, are there weaknesses to his game? What are you seeing on tape that can maybe slow a transition down to the NFL or prevent him from reaching that ceiling?

So his contested catch stuff in college was actually pretty good. I think it was like in the 55th percentile, which is fine. He's not going to do that in the NFL. Again, he's 173 pounds. You're probably not going to throw him those balls anyways. And if you are, shame on you. offensive coordinator, right? His game is based off quickness and running precise routes.

So if you're trying to throw him jump balls in the red zone, I think you're going to have a little bit of a problem there. And on top of that, he's not really a burner either. I think he's smooth, but he's not somebody like Chris Oliva, where, hey, we're going to have you just run vertical routes out from the outside and have a lot of success. So I do think he's probably better in a more traditional West Coast offense, but in that right system,

I can see him getting seven, eight targets a game pretty easily. Awesome. All right. Let's transition to a guy you're lower on the most, and that is TCU wide receiver, Quentin Johnson. And for the listeners,

just so you know, we've talked about this before, but when we talk openly about a player's deficiencies and, you know, being lower on a guy than consensus, we're not saying we hate the player. No, not at all. Ruding from to fail either.

This is just simply our evaluation of them. and Marcus wants to talk Quentin Johnson, so let's let the man do it. And I'll just say off the top, I think Johnson was one of my favorite players in this class to watch. I mean, he's just so different than the rest of the receivers in this class. And there is some physicality to his game. He can take the top off the defense.

So strictly by just watching him, I have a lot of fun, but I do have some questions about his fit in the NFL. There's just, there's some red flags. And the drop rate obviously is one of them, right? He had almost an 11% drop rate on catchable targets last year. It's not great. His contested catch percentage was actually pretty poor, less than 35%. If you're one of these bigger, more physical receivers,

I want to see you catching 65, 70% of your contested catches just wasn't the case. And then on top of that, you come from a TCU offense that's pretty wide receiver friendly. And you have to worry a little bit like when he comes into the NFL and he has to, has to learn a complex scheme, is there going to be a transition here? Or does he have to go to a Kyle Shanahan type of offense where we're just trying to get him in space and get him the ball in his hands? Let me just be clear. His ceiling is so much higher than Jordan Addison, but the floor is also so much lower. I could see him being a player that really struggles in the first two or three years of his career to be a consistent player. I feel that. And for the NFL, a lot of teams approach

the draft with really harsh risk management. Like, that's what they're focused on as risk management. And so when you're talking about a first round player, now, I personally love Quinton, but I do see all of the flaws you're talking about. I think teams will be shy with him because of that, because they are risk averse, and they're going to take a more polished player like Addison or a JSN or something like that. And that's kind of the point, Brett. It's like I think most of these teams see Addison as an easier, cleaner fit into their offense.

I think if you draft quitting Johnson, you're going to have to develop a game plan around him, scheme him touches, get him so he's not going against press coverage, which you should be doing anyways. Like if you're a good coaching staff, you want to put your players in the best position to win. I just think it's going to take a little bit more work to do it with Johnson compared to Jackson Smith and Jigbaugh or Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers

or some of these other receivers in this class. I have the perfect team fit for you for Johnson. and let me know what you think. Okay. Well, you did mention the Shanahan offense. I do think that would be great as well. But what about to the Detroit Lions? Yeah.

And see, I think that's a perfect fit, right? Because a lot of their offense is underneath stuff, get guys on the move. You know, we can give them touches out of the backfield if we need to. I think he fits well with Jared Goff. So I do like that fit quite a bit. Yeah, and he'll come in and not have to be the guy. Correct. I'm on that got JMO coming back for year two.

I do think that that would really help him having a couple established receivers already there. Caleb Raymond's on the roster. Josh Reynolds is on the roster. So that transitional developmental curve, you're going to need to get him on the field. I do think, you know, it makes sense in Detroit because he can take that time. Kid, I'm going to ask you a question.

Where do you think he falls in the draft? Do you think he ends up being a top 20 pick because I don't see it right now? You don't? No. I haven't thought too much. about this. I think I have this weird feeling that Texans are going to take him at 12. Higher than you're thinking, but I feel like.

That's an interesting fit. He's with Bryce. Like Bryce's ability to create out of structure and having a guy with the playmaking ability of Johnston. I think that marriage is really nice. I would like to see Bryce play on schedule a little bit more, though. So maybe getting an Addison would make more sense or a JSN guy who will help him stay on schedule a little bit.

But you saw what Bryce was able to do with James and Williams at Alabama with some of those scrambled drill routes and late deep crossers, like late deep crossers. And I feel like Johnson could could really help Bryce develop there, especially because they've kind of, Houston's made a lot of these little tickey tack signings with. Noah Brown. Yeah, Noah Brown and guys like that.

So I could be totally wrong, though. I mean, they might not even go receiver at 12. but I just feel like I can make sense. I can see a situation where they take they take Bryce Young at two and then they just try to get somebody consistent like Jackson Smith of Jigba at 12

and be like, okay, here's our slot receiver. He can play in that spot day one. We feel really comfortable that him and Bryce are going to connect early on. But maybe you're right. Maybe they swing for the fences here and they draft the guy with the upside. Yeah, if they don't take him though,

Marcus, I mean, I think you're probably right. right. I don't think he's going top 20. Like, I think Detroit is an outlier. I think they sneakily need a receiver. They obviously didn't bring back Chark. And I think the Chauncey Gardner Johnson signing from last night was probably the money. They were kind of setting aside for Chark.

So it was one of those were kind of tired of waiting around. So we'll go to the next option on our, you know, in our plan. And, you know, Jamo, he only played like, you know, 25 snaps last year. Play a lot. It didn't play a lot. So I think there are concerns in Allen Park about how he's coming along, especially with me. Amon Ra, he's a great player, but he is limited, like just,

he's not a do everything receiver. So I think they're a sneaky, a sneaky way to see. And they don't have a lot of other needs. That's the other big thing. Detroit's played this off season where you're kind of looking at the roster, like, they don't really have to take anything. It's kind of more about who their best player is on the board. And, you know, I definitely think they're setting the draft up to kind of be flexible.

But other than that, Marcus, dude, he might go late 20s. Well, and that's what's interesting, right, is there's some really interesting fits in the 20s, like starting with Baltimore at 22. Now, that's not my favorite fit. I'd like to see somebody a little bit more consistent there with Lamar Jackson, assuming he comes back. Minnesota's not an ideal fit either, neither is Jacksonville. But we get to 27 and the Buffalo Bills who already have number one in Stefan Diggs, already have an established number two in Gabe Davis. And if you can just let him be that number three guy that can do the jet sweep stuff, can take some of the play action shots down the field,

that's where I think we're talking about him maybe hitting his ceiling. Yep. That would be an insane fit, to be honest. They need that kind of underneath playmaking, too, like badly. They need that juice on offense because as much as I like Gabe Davis, like he's not the guy that you're afraid of taking the past 75 yards on a slant. Johnson can do that for them. Yep.

Good stuff. All right, let's close this out with your team player fit. And you wanted to see Utah tight end, Dalton Kincaid to the Dallas Cowboys, which for the record, this is the, in my latest mock draft, this was the pairing that I made in that mock draft.

So I'm right there with you, Marcus. Yeah, I mean, it would be really easy for the Cowboys to go from Dalton Shultz to Dalton Cuncade. They don't even have to change the name of some of the plays. So that part of it's really nice. But on top of that, we've seen Dalton Schultz in fantasy be very relevant the last two years whenever Doc Prescott has been on the field.

I mean, he's outscored George Kittle in points per game over the last two years, which is pretty awesome. But I think Kincaid, what he gives you is somebody that can make plays after the catch, that can get open at will, and provides you a little bit of a vertical element to the offense, which frankly, Dalton Schultz doesn't give the Cowboys. So we know Dak Prescott loves throwing to the tight end. I think Dalton Kincaid can step right in, be a 400 to 500-yard player as a rookie. And then by year two, we're talking about him 850 yards, eight touchdowns. And let's it, in the fantasy landscape, that's a tight end one pretty easily, right?

Without even having to think too much about it. I think Kincaid just fits really well in that Cowboys offense with Dak Prescott. Yeah. I mean, Kincaid's tape was so much fun. I mean, starts and ends with the route running, but also he has like outrageously good ball skills for a tie-end. It's ridiculous. He makes some of the most wild catches you will ever see.

Yes. I love that. I love the idea, too, of like, so Dalton Schultz, you know, would they pay him like $10 million last year? Yeah, the franchise tag. I think it was $10.9 million. 10.9 mil. He's not a bad player by any means, but he's in the past game,

especially, he's more of a run-after catch. You're going to dump it down to him on a checkdown. He's not going to really beat man. You know, he's okay against zone. But, you know, Kincaid is an upgrade in just about every way possible. And he's going to be significantly cheaper. Can I give you some awesome Dalton Kincaid numbers before we get off this topic? Yeah.

Via pro football focus. 99th percentile receiving grade. 99th percentile receiving grade versus single coverage. 94th percentile grade versus zone coverage. 98th percentile drop rate. 98th percentile contested contested. hedge percentage, 90th percentile separation percentage. Like, he's just an awesome, awesome receiver.

And you put him on a team that already has weapons galore. I mean, he's going to be the fourth or fifth option for the Cowboys. And he's going to absolutely crush it. I would love to see Dalton Kincaid with Dallas. So in summary, what all of those numbers say is Dalton Kincaid equals good. Yes, yes. It's not hard to watch you and be like, you know what? I can see that guy being good in the NFL.

To avoid the inevitable DMs I'm going to get, why didn't you talk about Kincaid as a blocker? We at least have to touch on that. Where do you see him fitting in as a blocker right away? Well, he doesn't. So there you go. You're not drafting him. Listen, you're not drafting him in the first round because he's a blocker.

If you want that guy, go get Darnell Washington, go draft your tight end three in the fourth or fifth round. You're drafting him because he can be a difference maker at receiver. He could be your Dallas Goddard for this offense, right? And I think that's kind of what Dallas needs in the middle of the field right now. Yeah. I love that. He doesn't block.

So we just what that. But yeah, great point. You're not drafting a tight end this high to be a run blocker. No. We're drafting him because he is a weapon in the past game. And that is the most important facet of the game right now. I do think what really got they got?

They got Jake Ferguson, Peyton, Hennershot. Yeah. And Ferguson's a little bit more of that combo tight end that can block a little bit. Hender shot is more of the receiving. tight end, but without any athleticism. Kincaid walks in and he's the best receiver receiving tight end on that roster. And you could funnel a lot of your offense to him. Yes, sir.

All right. Really quick, before we let you go, Marcus, I know you, you're a Marvin Mims guy. I'm a Marvin Mims guy. Danny Kelly and I just chopped it up on Friday about Marvin Mims, but I wanted you to take 60 seconds and just give me your Marvin Mims take. Because this is a man who needs more hype. I don't understand it, right? like what's going on here like he checks almost every single box that you want for one of these like it's a little bit smaller but speed guys right like every every speed guy of this class is like

sub five nine 161 pounds but that's not marvin mimms mims ran a legit four three eight at the nfl combine he measured in over five eleven which is a big number he's over 180 uh 80 pounds he was awesome in the vertical jump, awesome in the broad jump. Then on top of that, you watch his tape, and it's phenomenal. He just gets open all over the place. He makes big plays down the field. He was produced with every quarterback that Oklahoma had.

I don't get how we're not talking about this guy as a consensus second round pick. But if you look at the big media draft boards that Smel Kiper, Todd Bigshea, Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zerlind, none of those guys have him inside the top 100, and I don't get it at all.

It is actually mind-blowing, especially because we talked about how this draft class is just full of smaller guys. Well, by this draft class standards, MIMS is not even small. No. It's one of the bigger guys. That's what I don't get. It's, you know, 511, 183 is not all that small for a receiver. Like, we have plenty of guys that are playing at that size in the NFL.

I don't get it. And with all the hype around like Jalen Hyatt, who I do like, but, you know, I've seen people discrediting Marvin Mims because he did have. some schemed open touchdowns at Oklahoma. Yeah, you can't also love Jalen Hyatt, though, and not have the same criticism, right? I mean, it's Jalen Hyatt, all of his touchdowns were were schemed open to an extent. Sure. He's obviously a different caliber of explosiveness, even though Mimms did test a little bit better in that regard.

But I think Hyatt's, yeah, Hyatt has the long speed. There's no doubt. Some of the zebra technology stuff that's come out about Hyatt is crazy. I know he's at 22 miles an hour a couple times, which is insanely fast. So, but I just, it's crazy that in one breath, people will put high in the first round and then in the next they don't consider Marvin Mims as that caliber prospect. And I 100% think he is. He's going to be at value for whatever team gets him. I'm still going to assume he goes in day two because he's an Oklahoma receiver with a lot of production.

Those guys typically get drafted fairly high. But, man, if he slips to the third round, you're getting an insane value. Yes. fully agree. All right, dude, you're the man. Thank you so much for doing this. The people can find you at Marcus underscore Mosher on Twitter. He's at PFF as well.

That's written contact, correct? Yes, yep. And then you can listen to him at Lockdown Cowboys or Locked on Dynasty. Marcus, you are the man. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me on, Brett. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review.

on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.