Fantasy Football Daily - LAST-MINUTE Fantasy Football Draft News and Tips | Q&A with DFB

Episode Date: September 2, 2023

Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) quickly recap some of the late-breaking fantasy football news and info you need to know for your drafts this weekend -- Cooper Kupp, the Eagles backfield, Travis Etienne, and more. The guys also discuss Scott's 69 Stats article, up at FantasyPoints.com. READ DR. EDWIN PORRAS' INJURY [PRO]NE GUIDE WITH CODE INJURYPRONE25: https://injuryproneguide.myshopify.com/ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. And welcome to the show that still doesn't have a name. I'm your host, Jake Tribby, and I once again have Scott Bear with me to discuss whatever fantasy topic we want. Scott, how are you doing today? I'm doing good. Thanks. Thanks for having me, Jake. Really blessed to be able to come on the show and be your first and second ever guest for the Jake Tribby hour. Of course. You know, it's greatly appreciated. We're going to talk a little preseason, a little news. And then, you know, we're going to talk about what everyone's actually here for, which is some personal Scott Barrett questions.

So, you know, leading things off, like, what happened to discourse when talking about this Eagles backfield? I mean, the takes that we've seen on Twitter. these last few weeks have left my head spinning. Thankfully, we have some additional clarity with Trace Serman being cut, but I want to ask you, how do you think this backfield shakes out now that we know it's going to be, you know, Gainwell, Swift, and Rashad Penny getting the majority of these touches. Yeah, I mean, pre-season, I was thinking, you know, Miles Sanders was this early down workhorse who didn't get a lot of targets and like that role is now completely gone. and Rashad Penny had to have been the best bet to get that usage.

You know, that's who he's always been. You know, early down workhorse doesn't get targets. And then D'Andre Swift, to me, you know, a better pass catcher than he has a runner, seemed like somewhat redundant to Kenneth Gainwell. And then this preseason, it's Rashad Penny is going to get cut. Tray Sermon's ahead of him. It's the Kenneth Gainwell show. He's the starter.

D'Andre Swift is going to get a ton of targets, but not the third down. work or not the two minute drill. I don't know. None of it like made any sense to me. So I kind of just like ignored it. And I was like, well, Penny is still mispriced. I like him as a target for,

you know, zero RB teams. And what do I think right now? I have no idea. I think it's probably, you know, Penny is not going to be Miles Sanders. But I do think he'll probably have the most valuable role. Best guess is like it's,

50% of the carries for Penny, 50% of the targets for Swift, and that's not going to be a lot of targets for a team with a ton of positive game script and a hyper-mobile quarterback who doesn't target the running backs. And then just probably like a three-way committee backfield with a quarterback who runs, so not a ton of upside.

I don't know. I think there's probably not a league winner here, but definitely the guy to target for me. I think is Penny. I mean, there's definitely an avenue where, you know, Swift is just, you know, Miles Sanders-esque. It's just that's not the vibes I'm getting. What do you think, Jake? No, yeah.

I mean, I'm pretty much in line with you. I think, you know, in my opinion, I think it's going to be Penny and Swift getting a lot of the early down work, Gainwell getting two-minute stuff. You know, Penny and Gainwell, or Penny and Swift, sorry, Swift and Gainwell, splitting the third down roll. And then probably all three getting goal-line carries. I mean, it's going to be really gross. on a week-to-week basis. Like you said, probably no league winners there, but I do really like Penny for bestball, for what it's worth.

I am glad, like, very grateful that Trey Sermon ended up being cut because it really brought Fantasy Twitter back into sobriety with some of their takes. And this also leads into a broader discussion when it comes to, like, the value of preseason and training camp news versus, you know, our old priors. How much stock do you place in August news versus your previous beliefs? I used to think I was like the best when it came to navigating preseason usage. Like, you know, PFF, one of their guys was saying, you to trade Travis Kelsey because, you know, he's, he's only earned a 60% route share with the first team offense.

And it's like, yeah, Andy Reid has always done that. He did that with Tyree Kill. And then there's like other people who just like, oh, wow, this guy got all the snaps. And it's like, well, yeah, because he's the backup and the rest of the starters. And so I felt like I had the best where I like knew what was important and what wasn't. And I made a bunch of changes to my rankings last year. And it like really bit me in the ass. Like I was super high on Christian Watson.

And then I came down off of him based on a bunch of players like that where it's like, okay, I nailed week one, week two, week three usage. But then at a certain point, you know, talent rises to the top. And NFL coaches come to their senses. And then I'm wrong again. So this year I really made a point to just kind of fade the noise. One possible exception was I was very bullish on Greg Dulcich by yards per game. It was like one of the best rookie seasons in like 30 years for any tight end.

Sean Peyton was saying he's going to be your Joker. And then he compared him to like three running backs and three tight ends who all have like 90 catches and at least one season with Sean Peyton. And that got me excited. but then in preseason with the first team offense, he's kind of in a gross committee with Adam Troutman. And so I have moved him down. But like the counter argument to this is like maybe Peyton's just trying to light a fire under his ass or maybe, you know, he doesn't want to reveal too much of the offense.

I don't really know. But outside of that, I haven't made too many dramatic changes. Yeah, I did have a note on Dulcich to mention him today. I mean, last weekend we saw Adam Troum, and play 17 snaps, five routes with the first team, Dulcich with 11 snaps and eight routes with the first team. He's fallen to tight end 21 by ADP. Are you willing to take him there?

Well, yeah, for sure. I have him way above that, but he's also not quite a target for me. I think tight end strategy is like really simple this year. You draft Darren Waller, and then if you miss out on Darren Waller, you draft Chigo Conquo, must draft, and then one of Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee,

and that's it. Yeah. No, I think that makes a ton of sense that sort of barbell approach. You know, the data really backs that up. Scott, I know Cam Acres, you've bumped him a bit in your rankings down. Kyron Williams looks to be the passing back in L.A. Cam Acres down to running back 23 by ADP. Where does he land in your rankings?

Yeah, I think this is worth talking about, if only because you're one of Cam Acres' biggest supporters, or at least when I showed you my ranking as he were like, you're way too low on cammakers. I think outside of, you know, those final three weeks, four weeks, five weeks, like he's just been a colossal bust. He was playing well behind Dorell Henderson. And outside of those weeks, it was always a committee where he wasn't getting targets. He also has, you know, an Achilles injury, which more or less no running back has ever come back from. And so I just see a lot of red flags. And you know me, I'm the bell cow guy in PPR leagues.

Targets are worth 2.5 times as much as a carry. So you really want running backs who get targets. And now, you know, Cooper Cup is heard. This offense just could be a total dumpster fire. And if he's not getting targets, he relies heavily on positive game script, which might not be there. I don't know. I'm not super excited to draft him.

But what are your thoughts? I mean, I still see a path for acres. I mean, I get, you know, the Achilles injury is certainly a concern, but he's two years removed. He's 24 years old. I mean, the efficiency was, you know, pretty solid to end the season last year. I think it's reasonable at least to write off the Achilles. But, yeah, I'm with you.

You know, if the targets aren't there, you know, 12 to 15 carries per game in an offense that's, you know, could always be playing from behind, especially if Cooper Cup misses significant time here, which we'll talk about next. It's definitely concerning. I mean, game makers right around, you know, going around pick 70 and some of these draft king's drafts, I'm still taking him, but I don't, you know, I don't feel great about it. His path to failure.

Failure is definitely wider with the emergence of Kyrin Williams. Obviously, we have to talk about the bigger news in L.A. Cooper Cup had a hamstring setback. Dr. Edwin Porris expects him to miss at least week one. Do you still feel comfortable taking Cup in the first round? I just updated my rankings. I think I moved Cup to 15th overall. I don't know.

I kind of keep going back and forth. on it. So the rest of the staff, like if you look at our projections, he's like wide receiver 10 now. To me, like there's a case to be made that he should still be wide receiver 5 because if it's like, okay, he misses two games. I don't really care. The final two weeks of the season matter exponentially more, you know, the fantasy playoffs. And what is his upside? Over the last two seasons, he averages five fantasy points per game more than any other player. So like throw out. the injury, he should have been the unanimous 101. The problem is, you know, this is a serious injury. He's 30 plus years old. Hamstring injuries are notorious for lingering and impacting

performance. And then the head coach, Sean McVeigh, is also a notorious liar and injury optimist. So, yeah, right now I have him at wide receiver eight after Garrett Wilson. Oh, after Garrett Wilson. Yeah, I still think I'd take him ahead of Wilson, but man, it's, it's tough. Like, obviously the upside's fantastic there. I mean, in some drafts, I've seen him fall as far as like pick 18, pick 20. I mean, people are really scared. And I think, you know, for good reason.

And, you know, the other thing with Cup, too, as we kind of alluded to already, is that, you know, if he doesn't play this season or if, which obviously unlikely, but, you know, if he miss a significant time, it's probably more what I'm trying to say, this offense is going to be a total disaster. and that's going to really impact guys like Higby, Van Jefferson, Cam Acres. Are there any other Rams that you would bump because of Cups injury? Or do you just think, you know, the offense is going to be totally terrible? Well, it definitely helps Tyler Higby. I just like maybe I bumped him one spot, but I was already pretty high on him at tight end 13.

Van Jefferson, I like a lot. I probably higher on him than at least most people in the industry. And a big reason why, I mean, he was terrible last season. But we have an insider on staff at FantasyPoints.com. That's Adam Kaplan, who told us, I don't know, he's going to have a Robert Wood, potentially a Robert Woods-like season because, you know, you have to throw out last year. He was seriously hurt.

So none of that counts. They really trust him. They lean on him. They think he's going to have a break. out year. So that's definitely a great late round target. Yeah, I guess probably the bigger concern would be, you know, the team may be taking it a little easier with a guy like Stafford than, you know, the overall volume coming down for guys like Higney and Dan Jeffers.

My big concern with the Rams this year is they finally have their own first round pick. Yeah. The incentive to tank is there. Yeah. All right, where are you at on Travis Etienne after a very encouraging preseason usage with the first team? And also, any love for Tank Bigsby, who's now being drafted ahead of Rashad Penny and Jared McKinnon, despite mostly running with the twos in preseason. Yeah, I mean, I don't see the upside. Like, it's clear to me that it's going to be a committee backfield where as far as I can understand,

like navigating post-draft press conferences and like more recent preseason press conferences, is it's Travis Etienne gets all of the carries inside the in between the 20s. Tank Bigsby is the goal line threat. And they didn't trust Etienne as a pass catcher last year. Probably a percentage of that goes to Bigsby. And so what you're left with is like zero, like a ton of touches, but zero high value touches for Etienne. I mean, I think he's like a really good talent.

I think he's actually like a really good pass catcher or underrated at least. Um, he's just not someone I'm ever excited to draft. And then Bigsby, I, I don't see him ever having, like, real standalone value that helps your team. So to me, he's just a handcuff and he's overpriced as a handcuff. Yeah, it's really hard for me to see Bigsby getting there without an ETN injury. I mean, even if he gets, you know, a big chunk of the goal line work, um, and the past catching work. There just aren't going to be many targets there. Trevor Lawrence, you know, 2.6% checkdown rate last year by far the lowest among quarterbacks per. fantasy points data. Yeah, it just feels like a really gross spot. I'm pretty light on Etienne. I have a good amount of Bigsby, but almost all the Bigsby I have came from when he was way cheaper. I'm definitely off of him at RB39. I'm, you know, I'm okay with Etienne, but yeah, it's, it just feels very gross. All right, Scott, you recently came out with one of your biggest articles of the year, 69 stats. First of all, why the move from 96 stats to to 69 stats.

Yeah, I just, I thought it was like a really nice number, you know, very, very nice 69. Um, no,

I honestly, like why I did it is just like, people say I write too much and I've been super busy. So I figured, yeah, why don't I just cut it down? And, uh,

a more marketable SEO friendly number in 69. And that's what I did. I mean, every year too, it's like, there are some trash teams. Like, yeah,

I have to find, instead of doing three stats for each team. So I have to find three stats on the Texans. Now I kind of just gave them one and then I wrote five stats for a more compelling team. Scott, every off season you say you're going to do your best to not kill yourself with word count in season. Will this be the first season that you actually do that? I hope so. Yeah, I've actually given up a few articles this season, which should benefit all of our subscribers.

where now, like, I'm very DFS focused during the season, but now, you know, instead of just murdering myself and, like, rushing through things, I can really dedicate all my time to research and especially making sure our projections are on point. That's great. But back to 69 stats, what are some of your favorite stats from that piece? My favorite stats in this article are always the ones I added the last second. And it's like, oh, why didn't I think of that? That was really good. well one of them was so last season

Justin Jefferson gained 1,809 receiving yards that was sixth most in NFL history looks really impressive looks a lot less impressive when you consider the fact

that he ran a ton of routes he ran 690 that was the second most of any wide receiver since at least 2007 if Tyreek Hill ran exactly as many routes he would have had

399 more receiving yards than Justin Jefferson. But this wasn't a Jefferson stat. This was a Jordan Addison stat. And so Adam Thielen ran the second most routes of all receivers last season. It was the seventh most of any wide receiver since 2007. And he didn't do much for fantasy because, like, listen, the guy was super washed. He rang fourth worst of 53 qualifying wide receivers and yards per route run.

And so if Jordan Addison were to run exactly as many routes as Thielen did last year, and was just perfectly average, just perfectly average in yards per route run instead of bottom five, like Adam Thielen. We should expect 1,146 receiving yards. That would have ranked 12 best among all wide receivers, Jordan Addison by ADP, currently wide receiver 43. And so I came up with a stat. I'm like, damn, that's a fire stat. Way to go, Scott. And I also bumped Jordan Addison up.

My rankings maybe like six full spots. That's awesome. 69 stats people I mean you really you really can't beat it this is like I mean Scott like would you say this is the article that in in some ways put you on the map because I remember what would it have been 2019 like this piece blew up right like hundreds of retweets it was it took over fantasy Twitter didn't it yeah yeah yeah I think um 2,000 retweets maybe three years ago that was like my biggest ever article um but I actually made my name for myself like in Twitter where I like amassed all all my, like, people started to know who I was, was from, I did a draft, an article for draft kings doing a wide receiver versus cornerback matchups, which is like somewhat ironic because I hired you and you made your name for yourself talking about why that doesn't matter. And I was like, okay, this guy disagrees with me. I'm a known cornerback truther, but one of the best articles I ever read, we got to bring this guy

on board. What was it? One year, two years later, your fantasy football writer of the year. Yeah, it's been quite the journey. I just, you know, I remember being a huge Scott Barrett fan back in 2018, 2019. I was a PFF intern in the office. People were very excited when 96 stats blew up. I know Austin Gale couldn't stop talking about how many clicks that was getting.

But guys, it's time for the fun part of the show where we asked Scott Barrett some personal questions. We figure out what makes this fantasy football legend tick. It's the Scott-ish Inquisition. Scott, it is such a dumb name. It is such a dumb name, but it makes me laugh, and that's the important part. Very cool. Scott, I've been quite impressed with your media literacy in the few conversations we've had about film and TV.

You know, generally, when I come across somebody who's the greatest of all time at something, I kind of assume that, you know, in some other aspects of life, they may not be as well coached, as well versed. But you seem to, you know, have watched quite a bit of TV and film. So what are your top three movies of all time? Get it be very like typical bro answer. Godfather one and two. View it as one movie and it's the best movie ever.

Two, the good, the bad, and the ugly. So this is the show with no name. This is a story about the man with no name. Three, the departed, which I didn't like the first. I thought I was super overrated the first time I watched it. I've since watched it like 37 times. One of the most rewatchable movies ever. Anything Scorsese, Scorsese is the goat.

And then I'll give it like some honorable mentions for some movies you might not have ever watched. City of God is really good. It's a Brazilian film. The first time I watched it, my mind was so blown. I immediately watched it again. I watched it back to back in one sitting. And then Buffalo 66 is a. technically a football movie.

But yeah, me and my friend, I don't know, I would always hang out in his basement. We'd watch that movie probably 37 times. Those are some good picks. I really like City of God personally. But for me, I'd go with, you know, this is a movie. Not many people have seen. Schenectady, New York is one of my favorites. It's Philip Seymour Hoffman.

It's really just about, you know, life, a man's life. I find it very interesting. I never even heard of it. Wow. Old boy is a classic. You know, that's like a classic, like, film bro. first day of film bro school. You know, you're, yeah, you're watching old boy.

I mean, that's just, that's a great movie. I also really like no country for old men. I'm just, I'm a sucker for that film. So many great scenes in that movie. But yeah, there's, there's a ton of great movies. Maybe, maybe Scott at some point, you know, you and me can sit down and watch some movies together. By the way, saw Barbie and Oppenheimer?

Oppenheimer a little disappointing. Barbie, though, hilarious. One of the funniest movies I've, I've ever seen, honestly. Everything Ryan Gosling said. like made me laugh so much. I couldn't believe how funny that movie was. Have you seen Barbie? No, no, I'm a 33-year-old man.

I'm a 25-year-old man. That didn't stop me. And why is it your favorite movie ever? It's not my favorite movie ever. I'm just saying, it's hilarious. It's in theaters. It's the most recent film that I've watched is Barbie. I thought it was pretty good.

Scott, this is the big question. A lot of people, I would imagine a lot of fantasy point subs, probably don't know that you're a pretty big gold bug. What's your deal with gold? What's up with that? I don't know. Well, you're a big crypto guy. I'm a big gold guy.

Yeah, I mean, like, I think we should go back to a 100% gold-back dollar. I own gold. My best performing stock is Franco Nevada, which is a gold mining company that only has like seven employees, but just, I don't know, goes. up 10% every single year. It's also pretty. It has intrinsic value, which Bitcoin does not. It's been, it's held value for thousands and thousands of years. Yeah, I like gold. Why don't you like gold? I mean, it's not that I hate gold. Do you own physical gold, Scott? A little bit. Yeah, not too much. But so most of your gold is in like an investment account. Yeah. I mean,

Franco Nevada. Yeah. If things went south and the government had to back the dollar with gold, don't you think? It's such a terrible investment, like to invest in stocks that have to do with gold. Because if we ever got to the point where gold was actually super value and the dollar was worthless, then like we have way bigger problems. And like that's not even like helping like just everything is going to tank. Well, the government would just take it all like they did in 1333.

agree, right? Yeah. I mean, they, yeah, they just make personal ownership of gold. This is not an investment. No, do not take our advice on any of this. Yeah, this is not, this is not good advice. That's just like my pet. I'm like a gold member just or even worse, the, uh, Nathaniel Hackett. Oh, geez, man. He is, he is so corny. Yeah, he's like the ultimate like 35 year old white guy. No, yeah. I mean, like I, to me, Scott, The intrinsic value of Bitcoin comes from the fact that it's the only thing you can use to buy drugs on the internet. I mean, do you really need more than that? I mean, if I were a drug dealer, I'd accept gold.

You'd accept gold? Yeah, why wouldn't you? You'd have someone like shaving pieces off a gold bar in front of you? I mean, how do you think people bought drugs a thousand years ago? It was with gold. Were there, I mean, there weren't that many drugs a thousand years ago. It's like coffee beans and stuff. Right.

Yeah. Okay. Well. This is from our boy, Ryan Heath. Scott, you were a philosophy major in college, right? Yeah, that's right. That's right. Which philosopher do you agree with most?

And which do you disagree with most? I'm going to sidestep that question because I don't want to reveal too much about myself. But I will say that's what this is about. I will say my favorite philosopher. And it's not, it's not trait or whatever. it's Socrates, legitimately. Not Plato, but Socrates. I think, like, what should be mandatory reading in middle school and high school is the death and trial of Socrates.

To me, this is, like, the closest thing to a non-Christian saint, like, just the coolest, sickest dude. And, like, the takeaways from that story are intellectual humility, which, you know, helps me, I think, as, like, a fantasy. analyst and like is something everyone else, everyone in the world needs to embrace and, you know, be convicted in your beliefs, you know, stand up to the mob, to the, to the herd, which, which again, I try and do in my own fantasy football content. So yeah, I'm going to name one of my son, Socrates. Maybe middle name, but definitely Socrates is going to be in there. Marcus Aurelius too. Maybe there'll be a Marcus middle name too.

I remember you mentioning you had some other potential names for your sons. Was Cadarius in there or am I misremembering? Yeah, Cadarius Barrett. He has to finish as the wide receiver seven or better, and then it's a lock. Okay. All right. Big plans for Scott Barrett's future sons. Who's your favorite philosopher?

Oh, who's my favorite philosopher? for, I don't, man, I, like, I took one class on that in college, and I just, like almost all the classes I took throughout my entire school career, I just didn't really pay attention. But I do remember, who is it, Diogenes. It's not Fafideonese, I believe. Diogenes, a cynic, yeah, he's. Yeah, the guy who would, like, jack off outside and, you know, pee on people in the market and stuff like that. He defecated in a theater. I'm a, looking at his Wikipedia. Oh, he pointed up people with his middle finger.

Yeah, this is, this guy's pretty wild. So I would say he's my favorite just because it's like, how did he get a Wikipedia page? That's pretty, that's pretty silly. There's a story, I think it was like Alexander the Great went to go see Diogenes. And he was like, he lived in like a pot or something ridiculous and just like a homeless vagrant. and Alexander the Great was like, I'll give you, I'm definitely butchering this, I'll give you anything you want, just name it. And he says, stand aside, you're blocking the sun. That was, that was the end of the exchange. Nice. Yeah, that's my kind of guy. So yeah, that would be my favorite

philosopher. Well, guys, I really appreciate you joining us for the second episode of whatever we're going to name this show. We'll be back soon. Thanks for tuning in. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.