Fantasy Football Daily - Lessons Learned: Quarterbacks | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: January 26, 2024

In the first audio version of his popular written series, John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) analyzes what went right and what went wrong for him during the 2023 fantasy football season, with regards to drafting and playing quarterbacks. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hey, what's up? I'm John Hansen. Welcome to another edition, the first off-season edition of Hanson's Hints here at FantasyPoint.com. Now, for the last 20-plus years, I have been doing a big undertaking at the end of every year. The big annual Lessons Learned article. I'm still going to do the article, but I thought it would be a good exercise, hopefully good listening, and or viewing for people who are, you know, really into it, still thinking about fantasy football here in late January or February.

So what I'm going to do here over the coming weeks, actually, I'll probably bang out. all positions here well before the Super Bowl actually is do individual podcast slash live stream video deals, whatever we want to call them on the YouTube page. Make sure you subscribe to that, by the way, if you haven't already. And I'm going to go position by position and break down the good, the bad, the ugly. Most of it was ugly. It was a pretty wild year. Do it by position.

And I don't have like a ton of concrete, like lock it in lesson learned here on the heels coming out of the 20203 campaign because it was such a weird, wild, chaotic year. Now, again, I started writing this article. I was thinking about that today. When did I actually start? I know it's been over 20 years. And I think I probably started doing it after the next. 1999 campaign with Kurt Warner seemingly coming out of nowhere. And that really kind of flipped it, if you will.

It flipped the script a little bit. You know, you can get like a fantasy MVP in round 13, 14, as Kurt Warner was a great value that year. And I think I started writing the article then because I just felt like a dramatic shift. So I started doing it over 20 years ago. And as I've progressed, there's absolutely been, you know, very good lessons that I've wrote about and talked about on, you know, podcasts on the radio. But again, fewer like lock it in concrete lessons learned, but certainly do have plenty of material here. So let's get into it here.

And while starting with the entirety of the season, you know, there's nothing. scarier at times than going back and looking at an old preseason cheat sheet after the season plays out because it's usually not fun. You do see some really good calls. Now, the year before, actually, we're talking quarterbacks here. I actually had a really good year. I felt in 2022 in terms of my personal, you know, targets, my draft plan, if you will, my two guys, I did like Derek Carr, I will say that. But that was like, it. if you hold off until the bitter end to take your QB. I was going to take a shout with Derek Carr.

That one didn't work out. Although, I think he was like QB 15 on the season. So he actually wasn't horrible, but I took an L on that one. But my two guys were Burrow and Jalen Hertz. That was fantastic. Well, I tried to do something similar this year, and that didn't go particularly well. We'll get into it here.

Scoring was down, as we know. I called it the fan freshen or the fan pression to the point where it annoyed the hell out of a lot of people. And I apologize for that. But it was even worse than that. I mean, there was a point mid-season. It got better at the end of the year, basically. I haven't really studied all the data. But I absolutely know for a fact that it got better toward the end of the year.

So that's good. We had a little bit of a regression there, I guess. technically the lowest since 2017. But there was a point in, I don't know, late October, let's say, midseason, where it was at like, I mean, I think it was at like 2002 levels, something like that, where it was bad.

But I even went a little deeper here. And, you know, just for example, and, you know, not to make excuses or anything, but when there are fewer touchdowns to go around and less scoring, fewer points scores, well, I mean, it's hard to predict fake football, basically. You know, it's easy when teams are throwing or accounting for three to four touchdowns every single week. I mean, you know, a blind squirrel will get a lot of stuff, right?

Not as much these days. 1.39 receiving touchdowns, for example, in the 102-year history of the National Football League, that ranked only 33rd out of 102. we had such seasons to beat it in 49. Okay, back in 49, there were more receiving touchdowns scored in the National Football League. Also in 50, 60, 64. Oh, yeah, who can forget, 43. There were more receiving touchdowns in 1943 than there were in 2023.

And then also even rushing touchdowns were down. So scoring was down. 0.86 rushing touchdowns per game. I'm just saying it for just a general thought of scoring being down. That was only 60th out of 102 years of National Football League history. We also had a number of injuries, obviously. It was a brutal year for that. Justin Herbert, Joe Burrough, Trevor Lawrence had a lot of injury problems.

you know, I've also been a little against the cheat code guys because of the injury concerns that they bring to the table. Anthony Richardson, obviously, of course, the other AR, I guess AR1 and AR2, Aaron Rogers and Anthony Richardson. Rogers may have tested positive for Geratol. The man is going to be, what, 40 next year. We shall see about that. And, of course, Kirkie, Kirkie Cousins, that was a major buzzkill. So it was not a good year to kind of call and pull out a lot of great lessons here. I'm actually looking right now at our cheat sheet.

But here's the other thing, too. I think I was kind of going to get to this point here. I'm kind of all over the map here, just kind of still processing everything that occurred. I was more into those second tier guys like the year before when it was, you know, Mahom, Josh Allen, Lamar. I was like, no, no, you can have them. I'm going to go Burrow and Jalen Hertz. Well, those guys, especially Hertz, moved up.

Obviously, Jalen Hertz was, what was it, QB2 at least, right? Yeah, QB2 technically off the board. And that's where we had them. Mahomes was QB1. That's where we had them. Allen at 3 and Lamar 4. So we were right in line with the ADP for the top four guys. I though wasn't really into them because of the cost

and especially with a guy like Lamar you worry about availability. I'm like, yeah, you know, I think Lamar's going to have a good year. I'm certainly fine listening to him as a target as we did. We also listed them as a league winner. But the point is like 2023 was actually a year to get into the quarterback business early and pay up for one. I don't think this year, by the way, will that will be the case.

But this, that was the case this year. And really it was the case, you know, the guys who cost you the most, they, they returned an ROI. And that was simply because, A, they were available generally. Allen, Mahomes still didn't miss any time. J. Allen Hertz was dealing with a bunch of injuries per usual. But he did get it done. and all that for fantasy. So it was a year that you want to invest in a quarterback.

So the guys that I did like and we did like, I was into that second tier, Burrow or Herbert. I kind of put them as one person. I'm like, that's the earliest I'm going to take a quarterback. If I'm stuck late round four and all the good receivers are gone. And I don't really like the running backs and the tight ends. I'm like, all right, I'll give me Burr. or actually it was more a little more Herbert because of Burroughs calf injury.

We're going to get into that too here as I review the year and try and pull out as many lessons as I can. Now, that was one year. Every season a little bit is its own kind of ecosystem. And there were a lot of nuances. But that was the play this year. So it wasn't really a great year for quarterback recommendations, honestly. I mean, there's no other way to slice it. I mean, we're back in good players here,

but, you know, there were issues like injuries. And Justin Herbert, that was ugly. Obviously, he goes down eventually, but, and of course, you lost Keenan Allen, but you lost Mike Williams early in the season. And that really was disruptive, didn't get a lot of Josh Palmer as well. I did also like Trevor Lawrence. Once again, though, and he was kind of the guy, that I would say I probably leaned on as like,

I think I listed him as my top target. It didn't go well, by the way. A lot of reasons why he did come on and improve toward the end, but it was kind of ugly. Injuries were a factor. We had, you know, it's hard to say exactly what happened. I mean, it was just, it just fell a little flat. He had a lot of drop passes early in the season.

Calvin Ridley, a little shaky, obviously the Christian Kirk injury hurt. Yeah, so that was just one of those. I thought that was a savvy, you know, investment, safe, steady, but also with some upside. He had, what, four or five rush. I think it was five rushing touchdowns the year before. You know, and I did spend a lot of time over the last couple of years talking about, you know, my perfect quarterback for fantasy. And Lawrence fit the bill.

In fact, I did a little mini video. I remember like a 60-second one, basically saying he was this year's borough. And my point was, let's not overthink it. He's good. And he's pretty good value, like seventh round pick last year, 2022 borough. Lawrence was about what, sixth round pick.

I thought it was comparable. I thought it was similar. Didn't work out. You know, a lot of reasons why. Temps were down a little bit. You know, I'm looking here. The touchdown percentage dropped. So the number of touchdowns dropped.

His completion rate dropped just a little bit. Yards per attempt actually increased very incrementally, though, from 7.0 to 7.1. So, yeah, I don't really have a great lesson here. I'm just kind of recapping. Didn't necessarily work out for Trevor Lars. But, you know, again, injuries were a factor.

Obviously, we're conditioned to be used to that, but it was a little bit more prevalent. At the quarterback position here, there were other injuries, of course, that I'm not even getting into. And by the way, all these quarterback injuries, I believe, and I think it's fair to say, were contributing factors in the fan freshen. We had a lot of backup quarterback guys starting, playing. I mean, I was reeling off some of these names every week. on serious x-hound i'm like man this is bad i mean i got like 18 quarterbacks i'm projecting this

week who really aren't any good they they aren't starting quarterback caliber and that certainly hurt the uh the production but i will say very very quickly you know looking toward 2024 you know i am not going to pay up for the quarterback i'm going to do this again uh Allen, Mahomes, Hertz, you know, let's move down the board a little bit. You know, there are going to be myriad opportunities here. You know, I'm looking right now just at like straight up dynasty rankings. You know, that's really the best thing to look at this time of the year. I don't have any season projections yet for 2024.

But just looking at dynasty rankings, obviously the thing that jumps out is the incredible depth here you know for example anthony richardson he'll be a top 12 guy but i don't well actually he might end up being like the qb6 off the board uh Trevor lawrence i mean well deshawn watson figure it out you've got purdy there where's fields going and then of course Caleb williams or uh drake may or the raining heisman trophy winner you know what i mean like you know we're going to be getting a nice and fusion too this year. Kyler Murray, cheat code guy, you know, Tua. I mean, the depth is unbelievable.

So hopefully we can get into a little bit more of what we're looking for. And, you know, in terms of the lessons learned and how do we apply it. But just throwing that out there as we discussed a little bit of a draft plan thing in terms of like, well, actually, this was the year to pay up a little bit at quarterback. I still do not believe just because it happened this year that it'll happen again. I would think a lot of these mid-range, second-third-tier quarterbacks will have better seasons than last year,

namely Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Deshawn Watson, Justin Fields, Kyler. There's five right there. So there's that here. First off-season edition of the podcast. here Hanson's Hints at FantasyPoints.com. I am John Hanson.

Thanks for subscribing and listening and liking and all that crap. It's not crap. It's very important. We appreciate it. Another thing as I kind of, you know, like what I do is I study the old cheat sheet here. And, you know, I just painfully find tooth comb, go over everything. You know, what things would I, could I take back? it's a little difficult because there were a lot of things that were going on five, six,

seven months ago that I might not really be totally aware of and like remember a little, little small things. But yeah, that's what I'm, that's what I've been doing here. And I did write down a bunch of notes. One of the thing that, it's not really a lesson. It's, well, I guess maybe it is a little bit of a lesson because I'm looking here at my ranking of Jared Goff. I don't know if people on the staff were.

a couple of people on the staff were giving me a little brushback maybe Graham Graham Barfield on that I thought it was a pretty solid projection let's see how close I was actually probably going to be under because this is what I'm going to talk about with a lesson here

264 fantasy points let's take a look well well he blew it out of the water he did pretty well 305 so I guess this is the lesson maybe we should, especially in two quarterback leagues, which I think are going to be more prevalent.

I think they should be more prevalent, by the way, if we have 24 viable, decent at worst, starters, I mean, one quarterback league, it's a bit much, by the way. So the lesson is don't discount or consider the boring, available compilers. because I don't think anybody was high-fiving people and doing backflips because it's like, yeah, I got Jared Gough, baby. Yeah.

No, I don't think people were that excited. But what did he do? He was available. He played all 17 games and my man was compiling out there. And he ended up as the QB set. So he ended up throwing it a little bit more than we thought. Defense slipped up a little bit. They ran well, but Jared Gough still threw it.

605 times, which was second most in the national football league, actually, which that definitely helped. But I guess that's the lesson. You know, a guy like Jared Gough, win from the pocket guy, forget about any cheat code stuff. But the guy was available. He's also a professional and pretty good. And he compiled, as did Baker Mayfield, who was the QB10, which is shocking, he was QB 32 off the board. That's where we had them. You know, I was, eh, I don't even know if I was high or low on it.

I was just agnostic. I figured he'd be the guy. I was fairly optimistic about Canales. But, hey, look, through weeks five or six, I don't think anyone was thinking Baker was all that, by the way, which that's another lesson. There are many seasons within the season, which I'll get to.

But a couple of more, a couple of other examples of available compilers. I mean, I would put Russell Wilson on the list. Of course, the man did lose his job. But I was actually looking through some old tweets. And I saw one where I tweeted, you know, a GIF of Russell Wilson because I just traded for him in like March in a dynasty league. I'm like, oh, this pretty much guarantees a bounce back season. And it kind of was right.

But my man lost his job. I actually looked and I was only five points off his projection. but here's the thing the guy only played 15 games you know i don't i can't remember what i projected him for i have it somewhere probably 16 so yeah i guess that was pretty darn close on the projection but he ended up losing his job but he did he was a boring compiler for a little while there and then like you know derrick car um is another uh example of that um probably golf though is the biggest one because car is just so damn annoying what was he at here cubby 16 uh who knows where we had them I can take a look, though.

Actually, I'm sure it was lower than that. Yeah, QB 22. So not a riveting lesson learned there, but let's take a look as we move along here and look at the first... Actually, let's take a look at the points per game. That's the other note I wrote here, because it is interesting.

So when we look at the quarterback production this year, points per game, let's say minimum four games, which is, you know, pretty decent sample size. We're also going to go with a minimum of four because it does fit our narrative with Anthony Richardson. If you look at the top 12 in points per game at the quarterback position, it was almost all cheat code guys. So the cheat code is still in effect. eight of the 12. Of course, Joe Flacco, no cheat code there.

He had to get his ass in there, five games. And actually, he was third, 22 fantasy points per game. But it was Allen, Hertz, Lamar, Love, Kyler, Fields. Of course, some of these guys did, in fact, have availability issues. Like Mr. Kyler Murray, who was comfortable. off in the ACL, of course, Fields only had 13 starts. Richardson, of course, was a bit of a nightmare. But, you know, that is worth noting.

But when I looked at the top 12 in terms of fantasy points per game, which is probably a little bit more revealing than total points, one guy stood out among the crowd and this guy was on my target list. I did do only one long form video on quarterbacks here for our YouTube feed. I did a couple shorties here like a 60 seconds, but I only really felt the need to do like a long form video and breakdown. And this guy of the top 12 in points per game, he was certainly in the top 12 in total points, of course.

He was the perfect combination of cheat code meets win from the pocket meets availability and he was the pick he was the he was a qb one all year we just didn't know it until at the end of the year and that's of course jordan love of the green bay packers who was seventh in points per game but also this is my guy this is perfect this is the perfect fantasy asset and he will likely be such in 2024 because i don't know if he's going to get like a ton of love. I haven't really studied early ADP, no pun intended there,

but Jordan Love was the perfect pick. So yes, it's still cheat code, points per game, eight of the 12 were cheat code guys, but let's sort by total points and it's a lot less cheaty because, you know,

Tuotungavelloa was in that top 12. Baker Mayfield in the top 12. Of course, CJ, Stroud. Now, he did have three rushing touchdown, so he was a little cheaty. Brock Purdy. So you see the difference there. Over the course of the whole season, you know, the pocket guys do hang with the cheat code guys. If for no other reason, then they're more available. So again, that is why I want a combination because I'm greedy and I want it all. So next year, you can be damn sure that Jordan Love is going to be, he's probably, you know,

my top target. We'll see where he goes. We'll see where he goes. we'll see where he settles in. It'll be interesting to see, for example, who goes first, Jordan Love or Trevor Lawrence? I mean, I think Jordan Love is more talented than Trevor Lawrence. Jordan Love was much more impressive, does more or about the same, let's say. I think he's comparable to Lawrence. They both had four rushing touchdowns this year. Lawrence had a little bit more attempts, 20 more attempts, more yards.

But this is what we're talking about. at the quarterback position. This is what we want. We'd like that cheat code. We'd like to be on the, on the fringes of the cheat code, get some of that production. I always say,

50 points. Not always. I've said, I'm looking at, like, if you can give me 50 points with your legs, then we're good.

And that's almost exactly what Jordan Love got, actually. That's kind of like a good benchmark. If you're winning from the pocket and throwing 30 plus, like Burrow did, the year before and Love did this past year.

And you're getting me 50. We're good. Like, you're good. We're good. And you will be a pretty consistent and great ROI guy, you know, unless you're blowing up, like, you know, Burrow, of course, seventh rounder in 2022 and 2023, despite that issue. He was still like, what, fourth rounder? Yeah, Jordan Love had an ADP of 150, which was great.

QB21. Now, we did have them at QB20. I did have him as a target. I did give him love, but I wasn't gaga going crazy, which leads me to another lesson here, by the way. I didn't want to be irresponsible. I know he was a little polarizing. I've been a love person more than not.

from the beginning starting with when he came out i thought he had a very good talent a lot of talent you know i thought he i said it three years ago i'm like i see them a homes comps and he's definitely got a little bit of that going on here um of course we didn't know through two years i'm pretty confident when i say this um the organization uh was unsure of jordan love i spoke with numerous insiders and alike who pass along that sentiment the story changed a little bit though this pass off season because that light bulb seemingly went on for jordan love in year number three which brings me to another point with young rookie quarterbacks and i i get it i know the formula is there when you get the quarterback on that rookie contract economically it's ideal it's starting with

way back like what Russell Wilson in Seattle we saw it way like Jalen Hertz I understand that but by the same token I mean if I'm an owner let's say and I mean these draft picks that you have top five draft pick if you're the Jets that that is a valuable asset and you should protect it you should be savvy with your investment do the best that you can in that regard well the Jets are like now screw that. We're going to take Zach Wilson. What was it, two overall, a three overall, and we're just going to feed him to the wolves and hope,

I don't know, hope something pops and we get lucky and, you know, he is talented and all that. Well, it hasn't gone well. So I looked at a guy like Sam Howell, even as an example. Sam Howell was a fifth round pick, didn't play, only had one start, much like Pat Mahomes, actually, at the very end of the year. and I'm asking myself while the 2023 campaign was unfolding.

Like, wow, this guy's actually, he's doing it every week, you know, how's he doing it? Well, one reason. And look, he's not a bad player. You know, I've broken him down before. He's, you know, got a good arm. He's pretty athletic. He moves. He's tough.

Second reaction ability. It does have some issues. Not a great touch timing guy and all that. Kind of a one speed kind of a player, not a ton of nuance to his game. but he's scrappy as hell and he fights and all that. But, you know, how did he do it? Fifth round pick and he was pretty good. Well, I would argue that part of it was they sat his ass down for basically a whole year

and didn't rush him out there. And I can almost guarantee based on history and, you know, based on things I've seen play out if they would have thrown him to the wolves, granted it's a fifth round pick. But not too much difference between Sam, how and Zach Wilson at this point other than draft capital but if they had thrown him to the wolves it probably would have gone a lot worse so i mean nothing that we can do much with uh but just just keep that in mind actually thought the colts should have probably given anthony richardson you know at least

a month um who knows if that would have helped but it was great while he was out there but my man did suffer some serious injuries. So I just thought that that's the reason I did the video with Jordan Love. I just thought it was fascinating because we just don't see this. And I did compare it over and over and over again to Aaron Rogers for obvious reasons because there were multiple parallels. You can go back and watch the video that I did, I think, in June. And hey, what happened?

It all played out. It all happened. I wish I was begging people to draft him, but I mean, I do feel pretty good about the process there. So whenever in the future, it might not be just FYI, it might not be attention to NFL owners. It might not be a bad idea, guys, to sit your guys' ass down on the bench for a whole year. your results and your ROI over the four years might actually be better if he only plays three of them or even two of them or hell.

In Jordan Love's case, basically like one of them, that seemed like a pretty good investment, even though we got no return, no dividends really for three years, Green Bay. We got some now. And granted, they picked the good player,

they picked the right player. Everything went well. so many things can go wrong for a quarterback, but a big part of it was the fact that he was not rushed and he was able to get comfortable and really just settle in and dig in and kind of play Lucy Goosey. Moving on the seasons within the season phenomenon was very prevalent here in 2033. I wrote down some notes here.

Weeks 1 through 4, for example, here were some of the quarterback standings, and this is ugly, considering where some of these guys were going. Through week 4, that is 25% of the regular season in fantasy, if you go 14 weeks. Joey B, Joe Burrow, QB 31 in four games. Dak Prescott, not great, QB 23,

Deshawn Watson, QB21, Trevor Lawrence was a QB 19, Daniel Dimes, QB 25. And if we exclude that Cardinal game and was that week two or three, my man got 7.7 fantasy points per game in three games, which in my opinion here is related to the season within the season. and phenomenon. And I could do a whole probably hour-long podcast on this, but let me just summarize it this way. For 25, 30 years, especially when it comes to young players, I have not really paid a ton of attention to the first five, six weeks. Now, certainly if there's a shaky quarterback with a nasty, brutal slate of games with a bunch of, you know, top corners, I'm aware of that and, you know, maybe I'll pull back, but it's been harder than ever to isolate dominant defenses. Like, we don't even know which defenses are going to be, you know, truly great until the season starts in many cases.

But the lesson learned here, watching some of these guys just crash and burn for at least a month is we really do need to segment out our approach at the very least of the quarterback position. what was the issue with these guys? Now, you know, every situation's different. Deshawn Watson, the vibes were not good. It was a little sketchy. Nothing, you know, mixed reviews and training camp didn't look great in the preseason. So that was one element. We had, let's see, well, the borough thing, of course, that was a problem.

So there's a lesson learned. if we have an injured guy, and this is, again, part of the bigger lesson here of looking at seasons within the season, you know, if we have an injured guy, you may just let him pass. Because you could have, by the way, just let Joe Burrow go and then you could have traded for him pennies on the dollar because that's another lesson that I wanted to get into, that I will get into. but seasons within the season. So now going forward, again, I'm going to pay a lot more attention to the early schedule. Like Daniel Jones, there was a lot to like. He was a QB1 last year.

Maybe he's not that good. I think that's probably fair, but he's certainly capable as he showed in 2022 when he was a QB1. So you're thinking like further development on the offensive line, full season of Barclay. They had Jalen Hyatt, Darren Waller. Of course, Darren Waller,

ruined an entire summer of good vibes with that hamstring injury like three days before the damn opener. But, I mean, there was a lot to like. You know, they somehow got into the playoffs and won a playoff game and Danny Dombs with a QB1 with really low-end talent. And they significantly upgraded it.

You know, the markets weren't impressed by the way and they were right. Daniel Jones was only the QB 13. I had him at 10. And that was despite the fact that he was inside the top 12 in a much, much lesser situation. So the markets were actually right there. But we'll never know. Obviously, it was so bad that we can't really say that anything good was going to happen. But obviously, things just completely unraveled right out of the gate. The Waller injury was a factor. The offensive line injuries were massive.

And I had no idea, you know, for much of August, let's say that freaking Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal were going to be worthless, especially Evan Neal at right tackle. And it was just going to be an absolute sieve of an O line. They used, what, second round pick on a center, two number one picks on the bookend. I'm like, all right, here we go. No, we're not going anywhere. We're going to get sacked a million times.

in week one and then everything's just going to spiral out of control from there. And that's what happened other than that week two game against Arizona when Danny Dimes was, ironically enough, the QB1. You want to talk about a wide range of possible outcomes. QB1, week two, weeks one, three, and four, my man averaged 7.7 fantasy points. So a lot of it was the early matchups. They got overwhelmed. They got swarmed.

Daniel Jones lost it. He was shell-shocked. He was a shell of himself. Tyrod Taylor was way better. Frickin Tommy DeVito was better. I mean, it was absolutely brutal. So whenever we're looking at maybe a suspect situation, I'm going to look at every damn situation going forward individually

before I really take strong stances on players in August and just make sure that we don't have any problems. in like September because who the hell wants to start off 1 in 3? I mean it's very difficult especially if you're in a competitive league

so we have to get off to a hot start and we got to do it you know by looking at the schedule by the way not for nothing the schedule for the Green Bay Packers which I did outline in that Jordan Love video was fantastic and that was a big part

of, you know, how things went well for Jordan Love. Now, here's another example. Seasons within the season. It never, well, actually, no, let me go here to, not really a lesson, but Kenny Pickett. QB, he was QB 28 weeks one through four. Now, he never, unfortunately for him, had a chance to bounce back.

you know, I thought the Steelers, by the way, and again, only one game. I kind of thought that they should have given Kenny a little bit of, you know, give them another shot, basically, as opposed to playing Mason Rudolph. I know all the numbers look better for Rudolph and all that. But man, how about Kenny Pickett and the Steelers in the preseason? That might be a lesson. preseason showings might be bullshit basically because you know I was into Kenny Pickett a lot in retrospect I may regret overselling a guy's not overly talented I never said he was actually I said he was I thought he was pretty good uh in everything maybe it's just too hard to grade

because of Matt Canada and all that but man you know poor Kenny Pickett by the way he had one game as the starter without Matt Canada, and he completed 73% of his passes for 278, and it was the first time in years that they went over like 400 yards of offense. Then he got hurt, then they went with Mason Rudolph. But a little bit of a lesson there in that

I like to think that we can get tipped off, but even people who were Kenny Pickett haters, by the time we got to late August, they were like, all right, well, I guess he's, my man's going to have a brinked off. breakout season because he looked so damn good and everything was looking good on paper but I'll also say too you know they were really hurt by the schedule so this is probably another example of if you don't have a great margin for error and they didn't you know again maybe he's not

overly talented the office of line needed some time to gel as we saw they got a lot better just like to do the year before. And of course, Matt Canada was shaky. We all knew that. So when you are shaky like that and you have some scary matchups, maybe it's time to be concerned, and maybe even to head for the hills because it started off horribly. And who was that against the San Francisco 49ers? That wasn't fun. Then they played the Cleveland Browns, and that was one of the best defenses in football. Then they played the Raiders. They were actually not bad against the past.

Then Houston, they were very good, very good run defense. And then Baltimore. So, boy, that was quite nasty. Now, by the way, let's take a look at Mr. Jordan Love and his schedule. How'd that look. And again, I did point this out. It helped. Oh, they opened up at Chicago.

Oh, and they scored 38 points. Then it was at Atlanta. They were pretty good on defense, but certainly not scary. New Orleans, that was a close game. They didn't go off. Then Detroit. So that was something that I did like to schedule. I talked about it as a part of the Jordan Law of Equation.

But I think going forward, when I see an opportunity like this, I'm going to push him more because I'm going to have confidence that he can get off to a hot start and not, it kind of implode due to a poor start based on tough matchups. You know, he was dealing with a very young receiving corps. So I thought it might be irresponsible to go all in. But I did love all the receivers. I actually said all summer that for the first time ever, I liked every Packer at their ADP because a lot of them were, you know, very, very affordable.

So moving on here, a lot of thoughts, kind of going all over the place here. Another lesson learned here relating to quarterbacks in 2023. And it's somewhat related to the seasons within the season. Actually, it is related to how these days there are seasons within the season. So season one, Joe Burrow, was brutal.

Let's call season one weeks one through four, 25% of the regular season. He was QB 31. obviously we had a fair warning that this could be an issue with the calf injury. Let's take a look at that schedule real quick. That wasn't, you know, Cleveland, Baltimore. That's not a great opener right there. I mean, divisional foes, you know, know you well.

They lost both games, and they only scored three touchdowns in those games. I'm not even sure they were all three offensive touchdown. So, you know, you would look at in retrospect, and I was scared to death at his damn calf injury. I had one myself. I think I'm still limping. It happened like eight years ago. But I mean, I didn't drop them.

I wish I did a little bit further and all that. But it was bad. We had a fair warning. So note that going forward. You know, like in retrospect, I'm like, all right, I love Burrow. Always have. But this calf's a concern.

Oh, let's take a look at the schedule. Oh, he's opening up a Cleveland and Baltimore. You know, I might not have the patience to wait this out. Maybe instead I pass on Burrow. and almost hope that he just sucks. And then I knock on someone's door, the borough person, and do some business and acquire him. Because while this season obviously ended poorly with the injury,

there was a moment when he was back. And I did write about that. I remember in the players to trade and trade four article, let's see. So we were bad up until that game on October, eighth. So what was that? Like week five? Yeah. So we were bad weeks one through four. And then all of a sudden we were good. So that is another lesson learned. When something very unusual happens, we might expect a correction or regression. I'll give you a couple of examples here other than

that little borough one. You know, Gino Smith for Seattle was Obviously great. Dave Canales in 2022 did a really good job managing him. And that was really one of my big points on not being into Gino. Gino was the QB 15 off the board. We had him at 15, so I wasn't necessarily down on him. But, you know, it didn't happen. You know, for a variety of reasons, he just wasn't as sharp and he wasn't as good. So he finished as QB19 with lesser numbers.

I mean, he had 30 touchdowns the year before, which is weird, right? You're like, how does he get 30 touchdowns in 2022, which he did, led the NFL in completion rate? And then they had a first round receiver in Jackson Smith and Chigba, and he goes down to 20. Well, a little bit of regression, a little bit of, well, something really surprising happened. So let's not assume that we're now good. You know, Gino Smith toiled for a decade, and then he bawled out. And, well, that was an aberration, a little bit of an outlier type of season, just like Joe Burrow. And then even Russell Wilson, to an extent, I mean, that was somewhat jarring in 2022.

he just fell off a cliff. I actually didn't like him that year at all. I called him a declining player, but he kind of was back for most of the year, albeit in his very, very imperfect form. But yeah, also sick and tired of the small March of Error guys.

And in this year, I'm kind of putting it into the data too with Fantasy Points data and all that, studying that really hardcore with all the tools. I mean, You know, there are some guys that crush everything. You know, Brock Purdy is good against man, is good against zone. You know, Kirk Cousins.

But it is a little annoying when you have some of these quarterbacks with the smaller margin for error. Russell Wilson, for example, you know, always annoy me a little bit. So when you're a quarterback who might not be great against certain coverage shells and you're not a cheat code guy, Oh, what are we doing here? Just forget it, basically. One other thing, too, with regard to this, when something happens, that's very, very unexpected. Maybe we expect the opposite to happen. I will say when we look at the quarterback rankings and everything, one of the more shocking things was, in fact, C.J. Stroud.

We actually had him somewhat over the market here at QB26. he was QB 30, but obviously my man crushed it this year. Can we repeat that in year number two? You know, there are a lot of reasons to assume yes, more experience. I assume they'll do a little bit more to bolster the receiving core, Tank Dell getting them back, but probably, I mean, I would venture to guess that he'll be hard pressed to equal the 19 fantasy points per game. I mean, he'll probably come close.

But that was the one example. Maybe Sam Howl, too, like for weeks and weeks. I'm like, wow, how is he doing it? He's pretty good. I didn't think he would be this good. And then what happened? He hit a freaking wall. And he did get benched and things kind of evened out and leveled off.

I see Matthew Stafford here, by the way, as I wrap this up, looking at all the mistakes made. lessons learned. Yeah, I'm a bit of an ageist, so I don't regret not ranking Stafford higher than I did. QB 25, he was QB 24, talking about, oh, oh,

here's another one here to back up just a moment in terms of the Jordan Love effect of guys, you may want to hold off a little bit on playing your quarterback. Was there a better example this year than Bryce Young? I mean, you've got to be kidding, They had Andy Dalton there. They should have started Andy Dalton for a month.

So I don't know if these owners will wise up. And maybe this summer and fall, we'll see a couple of rookies, you know, sit on the bench for, I don't know, at least a month. And look, I'm normally been a playing guy. I'm not, you know, if you can play, you can play. But there's definitely something there and something to be said based on what we saw here from Jordan Love. look, C.J. Stroud, he rolled out of bed and was awesome. But, you know, that's why we're using incredible superlatives all year on C.J. Strow, my man, this cat is pretty darn rare here. So as I look through final glance, you know, I wasn't in the Tuatunga Veloa. Did I regret that

through seasons one and two of 2023? Yes, I did. Did I regret it in seasons three and four no I did not so I don't know we can call that a push um Dack Prescott by the way he was also another example of you know a schedule being a problem right out of the gate you know at the Giants you know that was good but they know the jets that was a good defense somehow I had problems with the cardinals and then the Patriots that were a good D and then the Niners of course that was where it imploded. But if you were reading my trade article that right around that time, by the way, you may have noticed I wrote up, I'm like, oh, wow, he's got the chargers, then a buy week.

We can gather ourselves. Rams, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, commanders, Seahawks Eagles. That is a pretty good schedule. So I was like, trade for Doc Prescott. That did work out until it did not. So tough year at the quarterback position, not the greatest year for, you know, revolutionary lessons but that's about what i have here thanks for tuning in i'll do this at the running back position wide receiver and tight end uh and so look for that on the live stream or not the live stream on the podcast feed the video feed and all that good stuff uh until then i'm john hanson stay tuned for the next edition of hanson's hints covering the lessons learned in 2023 at the running back position until then i will catch you next time thanks for tuning again to this

edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.