Fantasy Football Daily - MAJOR Dynasty ADP shifts + Coaching Changes And Their Dynasty Impacts | Dynasty Points Market Report

Episode Date: January 25, 2025

Dynasty ADP is constantly changing. Dynasty Points Market Report breaks down some of the major changes. Who belongs, and who doesn't? Tom and Andy break it down.. #DynastyFantasyFootball Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% of your subscription Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Listen to the podcast here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts Thinking About Thinking Substack - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/lets-think-about-thinking Dynasty Daddy Website - https://dynasty-daddy.com/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/Andy_Buckler Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When planning for life's most important moments, sometimes the hardest part is simply knowing where to start. That's why we're here to help. When you pre-plan and prepay a celebration of life with us, every detail will be handled with simplicity and professionalism, giving you the peace of mind that you've done all you can today to remove any burden from your loved ones tomorrow. We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at DignityMemorial.ca. The Dignity Memorial brand name is used to identify a network of licensed funeral cremation and cemetery providers owned and operated by affiliates of Service Corporation International. Startup season is alive and well, and there is a ton of things changing between coaching hires, fantasy analysts automatically putting players and roles that we're not so sure they're going to get. A lot of projecting and prognosticating. That's not this program.

All we're here to do today on the Dynasty Points Market Report, go over some ADP changes that we have noticed, some stuff that's, stands out to us a couple of players we want to hit on some players that are good values some players that feel like good values but may not be we are here today just to break down some a d p discrepancy who's rising who is falling who should we take note of while we are in dress i have just completed one draft so far this offseason is a co-me manager. It was a lot of fun. Can't wait to do more. And I'm sure fantasy points listeners are itching for more fantasy points. Fantasy analysts automatically putting players and roles that we're

not so sure they're going to get. A lot of projecting and prognosticating. That's not this program. All we're here to do today on the Dynasty Points Market Report, go over some ADP changes that we have noticed some stuff that stands out to us, a couple of players we want to hit on, some players that are good values, some players that feel like good values, but may not be, we are here today,

just to break down some ADP discrepancy, who's rising, who is falling, who should we take note of while we are in drafts? I have just completed one draft so far. This offseason as a co-manager, and it was a lot of fun. Can't wait to do more. And I'm sure fantasy points listeners are itching

for more fantasy points listener leagues. That being said, joining me as always is Andy Buckler. I know we talked about a ranking show. Couldn't make it work with Theo and Ryan. We're trying to kind of get everyone's schedule together. We're really hoping for next week on that. so you're going to want to stay in the loop. We will let you know.

Obviously, big changes, Buck. The Liam Cohen situation, which I think is hilarious, changes some things in Jacksonville. This is what I was talking about when we did our little mock draft, and I put Trevor Lawrence in the second round. I'm willing to bet you he'll end up in the third round, not too long from now, just based off of this information with him being touted

as a whisperer with what he did with Baker. Obviously, Jacksonville has Brian Thomas Jr., but it's not a Godwin Evans. Bucky, the offense is just not the same. A lot of people projecting for Travis Etyn, which, again, not so sure of. We don't want to project roles and situations, but we're going to talk about some of the Jacksonville players here, Buck.

And Slowick, he was let go today. A little late in the process, which I think is interesting. Pete Carroll signed in Las Vegas, almost called them Oakland, in Vegas, which is kind of an out of nowhere higher, kind of interesting higher to me, definitely feels like it's a culture higher

where they just want to change. I think culture matters too, by the way. Culture, for an NFL organization, I think really matters. We saw that with the Patriots. But just a quick takeaway in your mind, Buck, on the coaching movement that we've had over the last, I don't know, 48 hours?

Yeah, so a lot of the stuff is about Liam Cohen. I think people are really kind of blowing that out of proportion as far as how it happened. It really isn't shocking to me at all. As soon as they fired Balke, I was like, he's going to go back and take the job. I don't really understand why people are pretending to be like so mad about that. He never signed the deal. And if Balke was just fired two days before that, he would have just took the job when he was there. So he was, and it's not like, oh, he just left for the money.

And he left for, or I saw something the day, like, oh, he picked the quarterbacks. He picked Trevor over Baker. I mean, he picked a promotion in his life, a really big one from coordinator to head coach. So I think people are kind of blowing the whole thing out of proportion. Like, it is the craziest thing we've ever seen. Like, it's so, like, that he's, like, disrespectful and all that. I mean, I don't think so. I kind of figured it was going to happen as soon as I saw him and fire the gym, which

there's definitely some stuff on both parts. like the Jag should have been fired him and before this I mean they had the press conference where they're sitting together and they asked if if the coach wanted a new GM would you consider firing him while they're next to each other and the owner said yes if they gave us a good enough reason which is hilarious yeah so they should already did that so yeah I mean that's definitely good for Trevor Lawrence this is kind of this is like make a break for Trevor Lawrence. This is pretty much it. For the 50 year in a row, it is make a break for Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, he can't. If he can't turn around, if he can't turn around now, it's going to be rough for him.

I mean, this is it. I'm, I wouldn't say I'm much interested, much more interested than I was a few weeks ago. I think where he's going, like if he's in mid-third and you don't have a quarterback, you don't start with a quarterback in the first round. You could pick him. I think that's fine. I think it could be a good pick, but it's definitely risky because I think what Trevor Lawrence, He misses a lot of passes. I don't really know how the coach is going to fix that. It could be a footwork thing. And maybe because we saw a Baker,

maybe he changes the footwork. And he'll at the very best is we know that the wide receiver role thing that Doug Peterson and Press Taylor have, like their X only runs straight. Their Y only runs here. Like they don't have specific roles for the talent of their players. They just have roles of their group and they make them run that. If that makes sense,

like they don't put their players in the best position to win. With like Christian Kirk, right, he's really, really good in the slot, really good against, you know, man coverage or his own coverage. They don't, they just like, you're here, you're going to play here, and that's what it is. That was the Doug Peterson way he's always done that. At least I would feel like Liam Cohen would at least know his personnel a lot better. So that put Trevor Lawrence in the position to succeed. And as far as the Sloic thing, I think he needed to be gone. I'm happy he's gone.

He's the, I call him the shitty PFF dude. I don't know if he able to cut that, but he's, I'm happy he's gone and I'm sure he'll lash on somewhere, but hopefully not, not this season. And then with Pete Carroll, you said it's a culture hire, which, I mean, I agree. I think Pete Carroll probably should have been in the league, but I don't know how much I like it considering they just did a culture hire with Pierce and it went terrible. So I don't know.

Yeah, I think it's a little bit with the Pete Carroll thing. You know, he's been a successful coach. He's been successful everywhere. He knows how to talk to players and rally them. This feels like with Pete Carroll, no one else wanted to be here. We tried. So let's get that experienced fun guy

to start kind of turning it around. He'll talk like they're not rebuilding. They could kind of secretly rebuild with him. Veterans respect him. Young guys think he's fun. That's what it feels like. I feel like yeah but people wanted Belichick right it's not that much you know in terms of age it's not that much different but now Unke is in North Carolina so there you go but

that's what I mean he did he officially signed it yeah he did yeah because everyone was saying he's going to go join Brady in in Las Vegas he's like now I saw Dallas but Dallas is shot animer I'm not even going to touch that one that's her if you're a Cowboys fan the Texans would well welcome you probably. But that's what I feel like it is. This probably feels like a three year hire, right? They'll rebuild through him while maintaining like a competitive energy

that P. Carroll brings to a seemingly dead franchise. Like, that's what it feels like to me. The Sloick thing is just funny to me, right? He was deemed the master, one year offensive coordinator. I want him as my team's head coach last year, is we feel like we anoint these guys. One of them is my team's head coach. One of the best young offensive.

He's just like Ben Johnson. Like it was the same conversation last year. It was, is your team going to hire Ben Johnson or is it going to be Bobby Sloick? Bobby Sloak is the guy behind the mastermind behind the CJ Stroud breakout rookie year. But now of a sudden he's the reason. CJ Stroud was terrible.

And we need to be a little bit objective here. I'd understand that you know, C.J. Stroud did some of that to himself. That's besides the point. They'd still need an offensive line in Houston, like bad. And they invested in that offensive line, which is worse. They need some receivers because two of them had season-ending injuries halfway through, and one of them's 30.

Got an old-ass running back who's damn good still, but still. And there's work that needs to be done on that offense before anything changes. and the grass is not always greener on the other side. I don't know who they're going to bring in. Again, it's kind of late in the cycle, but we'll see. It also kind of, the offensive line coach has gone as well.

This kind of feels like D'emico Ryan's understands he needs to change something. Like he's under pressure. This is kind of what they do is they clear out personnel groupings on coaching staffs before they're the ones under the microscope. That's kind of the vibe, I guess. the day wall yeah exactly so it's like can it get better yeah but keep my it could also get worse

Waldron could walk through that door right and then and then what are we gonna do well then what then what are we gonna do like it can it can be worse so I understood to hear probably by the time this comes out they'll have someone probably the idea I've seen in our someone in our discourse said Chip Kelly I said ew no thanks. His offense was figured out and then it was awful. Well, could they promote from within? They could, but like, it's interesting. I think if you're firing slow, like, you need kind of a splash higher.

Did Josh your down take a job? That I don't know offhand. And then when it comes to college head coaches, like, they're already in recruitment mode. It's like, are you going to pull a college head coach right now? I mean, maybe to be an offense. I don't know. It's just a tough scenario. And a lot of these guys are retreads. It's hard to find the young offensive mind.

It's interesting. It's going to be interesting. But just like with Trevor in his fifth year of he's got to do it, it's going to be an interesting third year because if Stroud sucks again, there's below average or is just average. And I'm not even talking for fantasy. I'm just talking about on the NFL side of things, where he's slow through his reads.

He's late pulling the trigger. He doesn't get off his first look often enough. He is no idea. idea what he's reading pre-snap is some of the stuff that uh brett whitefield has talked about you know if he doesn't instinctually run for his life this control some of the like some of the some of the stuff that are charters and and brett whitefield who i trust with my life with the film stuff because i don't know it if he doesn't improve on this it's like okay now we're in a third year of you know we're us waiting for that that ceiling again so we'll see well i mean

Josh McCown interviewed with the Patriots and a couple teams. He didn't take a job, so he might be the lead candidate to be there at OC. Interesting first year OC. That's what I mean. He got 50-50. It can be worse, is all I'm saying. Maybe it's not just like run on first down, run on second down bad, but, man. Interesting.

Interesting stuff. Let's take a quick break. That's the coaching. Let's take a quick break when we come back. We will talk about the first slate of players. and how these draft boards seem like they're going. You're not going to want to miss it, sit tight. Snap up Ancestry DNA's lowest price ever in our incredible cyber sale.

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All right, let's dive right out of the gate. The first round has changed. The first round has completely changed in terms of what these ADPs are. And I love it. I absolutely love it. I love who we're at. Tons of wide receivers have made it in. A running back is in.

A tight end is in. This is for 12 team, right? Tight end premium, 0.5, super flex, as we always talk about. And for those wondering, well, what about one QB? What about single quarterback? Just remove the quarterbacks. You just remove the quarterbacks.

Take the players as they stand. It's the best way I tend to look at it. Maybe you play that differently. I don't know. But that's how I would suggest doing it in terms of our advice. Well, let's talk about it, Jamar Chase has moved up to four. This is just from January, by the way.

This is January 1st to today. We're recording this on the 24th. Because I can read numbers. So we've got Jamar Chase, four, Jefferson, 6, Brock Bowers 8, Bejohn 10, and then Lamb and Malik round out 11 and 12. And the rest are just the quarterbacks we expect. the borough

Hurts Mahomes, Jackson, Allen and Daniels of course and no particular order and then what gets interesting to me

is the second round now. You get Gibbs Ammonra Puka, Brian Thomas and then Trey McBride

so C.J. Stroud has fallen to QB8 he's now behind Herbert Herbert's exactly where I said he would be

when we did the mock. He's right in that spot where I said he would go because he had the two three games,

two games and then he had the horrendous playoff game that's clearly not affecting his fantasy value which is good. So then we've got wide receivers and a running back jumping these, it's becoming positional heavy and then quarterback seems to be getting pushed down

into the end of the third round. You've got Drake May at the very end of the second round. I take Drake Me over Marv and Sequin, but that's just me. And then when you get into the third round, it's a lot of quarterbacks. That's Kyler, Bow, B'Nicks, Jordan Love and Caleb Williams.

And then the fourth round, you've got golf party Mayfield. In the fifth round, you've got Pennix, Lawrence, Dack, Young, and McCarthy. In the sixth round, you've got Tua and AR. So it's like, it's actually the quarterback tiers are kind of settling themselves in through ADP.

You can kind of get a feeling of where everyone is at. Obviously, I think Caleb is going to jump up. I think Caleb ends up jumping up. Who he passes, I don't know, but clearly the first and second rounds have shifted. So what's your takeaways from it? What stands out to you the most? Because I have a couple.

I went over a few, but I got a couple things. Yeah, I think Marv still holding that. I think that's really high. Caleb, you know, I think he's a seal. He'll even, obviously, he'll rise after this.

So they should, I don't know why Marvin would ever be, you know, ahead of Caleb or he's right he's right next to the one-on-one petzig is still there it's not like they made a change above may so yeah i think i think marv should be you know way lower he's ahead of drake london and he's ahead of garret wilson and they're in the third so i would take i mean most these receivers in the third round above marv drake london garrick london garrott wilson mccon jason's close uh probably would prefer marv to json

But, man, so they pretty much at this point, Marv's, you know, valued with the 101 right at the 101. So they're next, they're literally back to back. So I would easily send, you know, Marv for Genti, if I can do that. I would easily send Marv for Shroud, Marv for Herbert. They're only three, like three picks away. You have to send a second to get one of those quarterbacks. I think that's easy to do. I would say the other thing is.

I'm sorry on his own team. Yeah, he's, yeah, McBride definitely, he jumped up, which is good to see. He was like third or fourth? Yeah, it kind of sucks because it's still just kind of hard to click a tight end there for me. But I liked him when he was cheaper when he was, looked like he was going to be more like a two, three turn pick. Now he's early second, which I think he should be there, just harder to click. I would say the other thing.

How we build. Yeah, so it's just going to be a little tough to like to build a team from that spot but I think he definitely should should be there. I would say the other thing that stands out is Rome is still Wider Cere 17 right there in the fourth and then Jericho somehow still in the fourth. Obviously this this takes in the whole month of January so it wasn't the firing. I mean yeah the firing the losing the OC he should be I mean got goff should be way down he should be but yeah i agree he should be way down in the mid like late six round he should be down with addison i think we're gonna i bet you we see goff and lawrence swap well they did that

should be 18 that's gonna swap i bet but he should fall for people love people who draft jared goff love jared goff and there is a small portion of people that believe that it was really it wasn't even ben johnson didn't sign the offense you It wasn't really him, and you didn't call every play. And then he was really a fake sharp. He just had great players around him. And nothing is going to change, even though they had one of the best,

most efficient offenses the NFL has ever seen for like three years, et cetera. People who like golf just like that guy. They were, they're the same. Usually they're the same types that like Kirk Cousins, who's just a perennial back end, QB1 that had blow up weeks. Like, same. They want the comfortable.

They want comfortability. Yeah, they want pick security. You're not really, the thing with Jared Goff is you're not really going to go wrong with drafting Jared Goff. Like, he's not going to cost you your season for the next couple of years. He's just not. He is a, quote, safe pick that can on any week be like QB6 or he can be QB 13. And those aren't going to kill you, obviously. he just doesn't win it for you

we just don't want to draft QB 16 to expect QB 16 yeah exactly so not when yeah I agree I agree not when again you got Lawrence DAC actually Bryce Young

JJ McCarthy much better bet and then I think Tua's a little little okay there at QB 23 even though he's hard to trust I don't know if he said DAC but definitely I did say DAC I did say DAC I did say DAC but again I also think

Dak at QB 19 at the 56th the pick of the draft is also risky again I would just take JJ McCarthy I'll bet on the youth there dude's 31 hamstring tore off the bone and now he's got Schottenheimer rolling in man that is tough that's a tough click for me if I'm being honest that there's a lot of thing

his mobility was already pretty much gone he was all he full pylon post ankle but man now it's really it's really something now but it's hard to turn down the guy that throws a ball to cd lamb which i get i have two more i think okay they're both in the third round i'll say breese really not losing much you know still rb five still early third i think i'm interested in a bruce discount but there's no discount here. He was a second, you know, a mid-second last year. He had an awful season. He still RB5. And he had an awful season as like as a player, not just in fantasy, which really like, there's a couple of players this off season I've been really trying to figure out.

Breece Hall is one of them. Tyreek Hill is another. And so is D.K. And the Stroud, too, but I don't want to get in the Stroud conversation. Those are like four players that I've been trying to figure out. Like just from a real life standpoint, like, what happened? Like, are these dudes like, are they good or are they bad? Breece Hall was an amazing player as a rookie season and coming off the ACL. Third season, he was awful in every metric one, literally one of the worst running backs in the league. Same with Strout, same with Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill had an injury, we know. But it was a wrist thing.

There's more to hail than the injury. And it could have been mental too. He said that whole thing, you know, it was hard from the deal with all the time. And maybe it was. And then, you know, now he wants out. then he's unhappy, then Tua gets hurt, then he has to deal with Tyler Huntley and Skyler Thompson and just terrible. But he also has that 30 next to his name now.

Yeah. And it's really hard to ignore just based on history. So I don't know. Those are just players. I'm just so, like, perplexed by it, to be honest, because I want to like Breece Hall. I want to say that we should pick him in the third round, but it's really hard to pick him in the third round after what he did last year.

Now he's going to be a year for running back. He's a second round pick. So he's on the contract year now. No fifth year option for him. He's in the class with Garrett and sauce and all them. I shouldn't say sauce. Ahmad. He got toast to last year.

I'm not calling him by his nickname. And then with Hill, with Hill, I want to buy into him too, but I mean, he's 30. It's really hard to, like, it's really hard to, like,

think about the Hill thing because you go from, like, two years, well, a year ago, the number one wider series in fantasy, the best wide of series season all the time,

paced it for two, thousand yards getting legitimate hype to win the MVP award. Then he comes in the next year and he looks horrendous. I just, I don't know. Like, I think, you know, Terry Kill, I just saw him. Where is he at? He's right there. He's right there.

He's a little down. He's right next to Terry McCloran in the seventh round. I can't see what pick that is. So he's like at the wider receiver, wide receiver 27, like around Jamo. Round JMO, DK, IUC are the next three receivers going in his range. And then, like, I think that's probably a bet we should be making. And I think it's a good bet, but it's tough.

Like, like, I didn't mean to go off on a tangent there. But those players, just players, I've been watching a lot of film. Again, not a film. I've watched a lot of film, watching a lot, like, reading a lot of data, trying to figure out those players because very strange. Usually when young players show you that they're elite, it's a very good sense of what they're going to be in their NFL career. Stroudon Hall have completely just nuked that narrative. So I don't know. So probably would want to pass on Hall for now. It's definitely there. I mean, that's no discount. People are still giving him a lot of respect. And we don't even know who their quarterback's going to be. They're going to have a new offense. I mean, they can't even get Garrett Wilson the football. So I don't worry about that. And then I want to go up, well, one more to the third round after my tangent was Kyler Murray. We've talked a lot about Kyler Murray and how he was super disappointing last season. And just kind of in general, like as his,

deficiencies of the NFL quarterback have really started to show. They just really started to peek their head. Someone that I've defended forever, I really thought they do was like a legitimate, had a chance to be a legitimate elite NFL player. Obviously, we know he's an elite fantasy player at times when he's healthy. But I think the deficiencies are real and they really looked ugly this year. You know, he struggles across the middle of the field. He hasn't struggled in the past to get a number one rider's seat with the ball.

I would say he does get the number one right receiver of the ball. he displays tight end. So, but at quarterback 13 in the late third round, it's really hard to fade, it's really hard to fade a profile at Kyler. Only 27 years old. Not even, he's not even a quarterback one anymore. You tell me I can get him at the end of the third? Like, there's just no way.

Like, I'm ready to get hurt again. I don't think I could keep passing on him. I think that's an ultra, like a mega value there for Kyler. Yeah, it's not bad. it does make me pretty excited, I'll admit, but the 102 is there right after. You've got Baker after Lawrence for now, looking at the board. There are some other guys that might be as safe.

It's really interesting to me. Now, I don't know, I don't know if in drafts that I'll be in if Breece Hall goes at the RB5. That might be, I might swap what I think is going to happen. and I might move Ladd, JSN up a spot each, move Bryce down and then swap. I might move Breece Hall to the 33rd pick, move JSN up to the 31st pick, take Kyla from the 35th pick, and then swap him in Enhol. So it end up being Kyler ahead of A.J. Brown, ahead of the 102, and ahead of Breeze Hall.

That's probably where I see it happening. and that's not a small change. Ladd and JSN is a significant change. So those are pretty important pieces. They stand out to me. A couple others that stand out to me. We talked about Marvin Harrison Jr. at the wide receiver 9.

That's just too rich. I can't do it. But lad at wide receiver 12 at the 308 has got to be a smash decision. That has to be a pick that you make a hundred out of a hundred he and JSN are going to go back and forth

some people will want to have lad ahead of Garrett Wilson even I'm not there I can't get there because we know how good Garrett is and they're only a year apart they're a year apart and unfortunately like you said

we don't know who the quarterback is it might be Rogers Rogers is he in New York he's already said he doesn't want to be there if he's back who knows we might need a Rod Wave scenario with with Garrett Wilson to get his mind

right. Not sure. We can hook that up or not. But I think it's fair if you take Ladd or JSN ahead of Garrett. I understand. I'm not. Not yet. We also have some question marks about what JSN's going to do. I am going to talk

about DK later because there's some stuff I was looking up that I was pretty interested in. The next three I kind of want to talk about is three running backs going back to back to back. And it's Jonathan Taylor, Karen Williams and Bucky Irving in the fourth round. That's expensive when you see that T. Higgins and Rushie Rice and Baker Mayfield go immediately after.

That feels, it feels a little expensive to me. All three good players. Bucky Irving, potentially a great player. Jonathan Taylor, one-dimensional, but good player. Karen Williams, great player. Fumbles, sure, but look, McVeigh loves him. and Blake Corum kind of ass. So I think those are,

they're fine picks for your first running back. But Ken Walker in the 6th looks real nice. Chuba Hubbard and the 7th looks real nice. Alvin Camarron the 8th looks super nice. Like there's just some other bets I want to make when guys like Rishi and T are still on the board. Yeah, I wanted to say it with those three running backs. I forgot to bring them up during my point.

when you talked about moving back, Breece should be at pick 45, I think. He should be within those three running backs and behind T and Rishi. I like that spot. Yeah, he should be in the 40s. There's no reason he should be, you know, 10, pretty much, yeah, 10 picks ahead of Taylor and Bucky, and then, you know, 14 picks ahead of the two receivers. I don't think, I mean, you send, you send Brice for Rishi in most of your leagues. it's getting declined, I would say.

Probably instantly declined. So, yeah. He should be 45. He should be in the back of the fourth. He should be 45. Yeah, definitely ahead of Jacobs. And then I'll say the last thing is, I think Jalen McMillan, eighth round is pretty crazy to me.

That's really expensive for that. I was actually shocked to even see his name in the top 10 rounds, to be honest. Well, you get a rookie who breaks out at the end of the year. looks good in the playoffs helps you win leagues except for me because you can't catch a ball in the end zone and it gets picked off

but I'm not going to take that too personally I'm happy to have him but wide receiver 34 and he's a wide receiver 3 I think you'd take a first rate I'm sorry I would take a first for him and he's right in first reins

even at the back end of the first in this class I would take for him yeah I agree uh there's Josh Downs will going right after him. Keon Coleman, which Wider Seaver 36 is high to me. I prefer Keon. Yeah, I just don't want, I don't want Keon Coleman at all, at all.

Especially if Joe Brady sticks around and they keep doing that, you know, receiver by committee type stuff. I'm out. Chris Godwin, Watersever 37 feels kind of expensive. Then you get Pearsall who had a couple good games. I'm interested. Michael Whitman Jr. who I think is fine, actually.

We've seen him healthy at the end of the year. He looked just fine. And then Coral and Sutton, I'm Wad to Cere 40 is an absolute smash pick. He's a smash pick there. And then DeVante Adams, why did you see him were 42? I'm just picking Devante Adams

every time in the 10th round. I'll just blindly click him. Give me third flex, DeVante Adams. Click. I'm fine with that production. Totally fine with it. right he does feel McMillan feels a little out of place

where he is right now but it is also kind of disgusting a little bit at wide receiver so what that is that to me that to me feels like we're projecting him to full on get into this Godwin role but now Liam Cohen's gone so who comes in and they're probably just going to bring back Godwin see that's the one I don't I don't

I don't know like maybe on a one year type prove a deal to like respect the veterans He's such a beloved teammate He's such a beloved teammate And I know I know it I think he comes back to But I really I also wanted to see Keenan Allen in that role

But now Liam Cohen's gone So that role is going to be different So that offense alone Is is going to change for sure Mike Evans Wide Receiver 33 is eternal I'll just If I can click him

And then Devante Adams two rounds later and that's my second and third flex spots I'm just laughing my way to I'm just gonna watch those guys die on my roster pretty much for sure but I think I think it's fair to talk

about those guys he does kind of stick out like a sore thumb he is a tear down like I would tear down from McMillan to Cortland Sutton if I can for sure for sure but those three running backs I think they're fine I didn't do I think they're RB1s

Yeah, absolutely. You're right. As I look at it, that Breast Hall just stands out so much. I would see if you can move Breece Hall for any of the people we mentioned. T. Rishie, Baker, Bucky, Kairn, Taylor, even Leporta, like, I would be asking questions. If that's actually where he's being drafted and you play with other managers that look at ADP as a signal, I think you need to be going and hitting some DMs personally.

We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to finish off with a couple wide receivers that we want to hit on, maybe a quarterback or two in the late round because I got to admit, the late round QB this year right now is not looking so hot. We're going to touch on that when we come back right after this.

Okay, a couple more players. We want to hit on Zay Flowers and Chrysalavi. Now, when I wrote this down, they were 511 and the 512 respectfully. They were the same. They are currently not anymore. Alave has moved down to the 601. So he has been jumped by Bryce Young, the 105 McCarthy, which I think is fair. You wanted to talk.

Chris Olavet goes side by side with Addison, which I think is fine. Now, I want to take everybody back to last year, where I said we were one Chris Olave disappointment away for him being in the nesting doll category. His ADP is telling us he's there. So we were right on that. He's another player I love. He has had alpha profiles before,

but you looked at his data before we did this, and you have officially decreed it under the terms of Andy Buckler, is ass. So we know that when a player is deemed ass by Andy Buckler and not the metric, it might be time to worry, but it's also in the sixth round. And we both know that wide receivers in the sixth round, if your running back isn't there, is the Andy Buckler special.

So the best part about this ADP is your running back is there. And it's Ken Walker. in the sixth round right now Ken Walker going two spots after Alave and one spot after the love of your life, Jordan Addison. So let's ask the question. Should Ken Walker be getting a little bit more respect than he is right now? Yes, he should. He should definitely, I definitely want him over Alave.

It's funny because during the season, Ken Walker, like week five, he was making a case for the RB one overall during the season, and he was like RB4 in Dynasty. The line just blew up. It was terrible. The offensive line made the team non-functional. We saw it with kind of coincides with the JSN breakout. They had to get the ball out fast,

so they had to throw shorter passes. It couldn't protect. Ken Walker, we know is a mini-Saquan rusher, as he's super robust. He's negative 5, 15, negative 3, 80-R touchdown. That's how he runs. It's like love or hate it. It is something that coaching staffs have to either love or hate.

We know the new coaching staff this past season. I know they're gone, no grub, got fired, raved about Kenneth Walker all off season, said he's going to be our workhorse. He's our guy. We love him. And they were right. He set career highs as a pass catcher. He caught really close to 50 passes.

I can't, I'm at the top of my head. I should know that. He got really close to 50 passes, missing games. He's been banged up all year. Again, that's the Kenneth Walker special. He's probably just going to be banged up. But super young player, only 24 years old, going into now year four. Again, another second round pick, so contract year for him.

I think he's a really good player. I think definitely in the sixth round, he's a smash pick. And he should be ahead of Olaave. But with Olave, I want to say, I don't really think Chris Lave is asked. I think Kersalabri was super special for his first two years, and I thought he was really good. He was winning on Big Boy Routes, a legitimate alpha-wide receiver, just had a little bit of DJ more in his game where he didn't necessarily ever crack, you know, 10, like 1080 in yards, stayed there. Really big target share numbers, really good peripherals, like one of the best yards per route run over like a three-year span. He's in the same class as Gary Wilson, so he'll be going down in the year four as well.

a top 10 pick so he has a fifth year option so probably expect him to be on the Saints for at least this year and next but last season a small sample obviously but 11.1a dot 24.4 air yard share only a 16.8% target share that's really like I knew it was bad where you really see sub 20% we know he was kind of getting alpha by Rashid Shaheed. We can say that it was a dare car thing and I do think it kind of was but to not earn targets after being in the elite target earner under sub like sub 20% 16% that's 16% is like a like a burner type like you know a guy that just runs like a mvs type route like that's usually where we get you know 16% type a 24% target for outrun fine he's usually better he's usually in the 30s and then 9.7 fantasy points per game with a 10.3 expected fantasy points per game so that's wide receiver four why is there five range and then 22% first read fine probably you know as we really expect him to be in like a drake london type role drake london is you know 30% first read target share guy so the guy so

with olive another player that i'm trying to figure out because you know in discord and just in general people would be like oh this or alave uh should i pick olive i'm in the five i'm in the five 12 alave israel and my pick's always alab and then i start to look like man like maybe am just kind of like blinded it by this crystal lave thing and maybe he isn't as good as a value as I want him to be or perceive him to be because out of all this stuff you know all the concerns that he had this season as a player which again we know again super young players show us their elite we should believe their elite third season went poorly he also has a concussion thing and when I think of receivers with concussions we know people want to bring up two and everything

When I think of concussion wide receivers, I think of Brandon Cooks, who was a hit away from retirement. Everyone wanted to be like, oh, he's going to retire. He was only the first receivers I remember that had to go see a concussion specialist when he's with the Rams. He's the first one I remember doing that. He goes on to play like seven more years. He's literally still playing right now. So sometimes I think that could be overblown. You also end up in like an Austin Collie situation.

Yeah. Where great inside receiver had a couple of concussions and he was done. Austin Collie was a baller. An absolute baller. So it's just, it's like a double, it's like a double risk with Olavé because he had a really poor season. We know he hates Derrick Carr. I mean, that's not even like a narrative. That's not, yeah.

That's not even a narrative at this point. I mean, we see, we see the brother tweet about Derrick Carr constantly. We see Michael Thomas and we know he talks Michael Thomas shit on Derrick Carr. So that's not even narrative at the point. They do not get along. Or at least Chris Alave. side doesn't get along. And we don't know what's going to happen with Derek Carr.

Kind of really hard for him to get out of New Orleans lease this year. Maybe he can get traded. My luck, he'll probably get traded for like a third round picks or the Giants and go win six games with them for the next two years. But even if they do lose Carr, obviously, they're in cap hell and their picks not good enough to get a quarterback and this class isn't good enough. So I think it's double risk for Elabe as far as the concussion stuff and the bad season. But I want to bet on Olabe, what I saw the first two years and what he is is a

prospect. I mean, really good prospect. The only knock on him was that he just went back to school one year. All his other profiles of the prospect are great. I think in the fifth round, he's six one, so six round, I think he's a good pick. I prefer Walker. He's right with Pickins. I think he's better player than Pickens, but you have to weigh the concussion stuff and you have to weigh the NBA Youngboy stuff with Pickens. They both, like, you get to, you get into all of the, Like all these dudes have question marks here. I think DJ Moore is probably an easy pick over him now with what we know with the new OC. But that probably won't stand.

And then, oh, then I see Chris Worthy, Xavier Worthy. Probably would just prefer Olive there. And then who else is in the loser? I think I would take the upside shot at Worthy, honestly, even though I don't think he's very good. I think, I think I'm just done with Alave types. I think I would, I would think I would take a bounce back on waddle. Yeah, I was, I was going to say, I was,

I was going to say if we want to take like the Chris Olave shot, it's at the end of the six of the Waddle. That's not what, I'm not saying like I would take those guys at the 601 where Alave is going, but saying if I were to prefer a wide receiver, that is a tradeback scenario to take any one of them. But that, my friends, is the basis of what the nesting doll wide receivers are.

Right? That, every single one of these wide receivers, receivers, we can narrative drive a case for them to be better. Remember Jalen Waddle alpha season? Jalen Waddle can be in alpha. Jeline Wattel's constantly hurt. The offense he's running has been solved, it feels like, as they're all getting bodied by H.N. and Jano Smith and his career year.

So some changes need to happen there. But I think these guys are all just kind of roped in together. This is just what it is. We're on a team that gets Alvin Camara, what, 20 targets in a game? We use Taysam Hill. We use Joanne Johnson and Shihide and then MV. Kubiak was great at the beginning of the year and obviously the rest of his team died.

But you're right, there's a ton of risk in the New Orleans franchise. And that has to matter as well. But he is kind of the only one with hell. healthy legs, right? Like, that's kind of, that's kind of an interesting thing for him. But I would prefer Addison. I think I would prefer Walker.

I mean, the 106 is kind of enticing, prefer more. I mean, Hawkinson, there could be an argument made for him. Not even, we're not going to talk about your boy, AR. We're not even going to bring him up today. I'm just, except for me telling you, we're not talking about him. But a bunch of, I think the sixth round is going to be a challenging round. And then the last players I want to talk about real quick before we get out of here.

I want to talk about Chuba, who I think is a good pick in the seventh round. He's rated between D.K. and James and Williams. I'm looking at him there. What is Dalton Kincaid still doing at Titan 6? Let's get him out. Let's absolutely get them out. But two players I definitely want to hit on are Jerry Judy and Mike Evans.

Now I talked about Mike Evans a lot previously. Jerry Judy is going in and around where McMillan Camara pits, gross. Tyrone Tracy 110 and he's going just after Montgomery and Pacheco and Jaden Fraud 109 and Joe Mixen. I want Jerry Judy there

because a lot like we talked about with Tillman when a player does what he does, it's hard to put that back in the box. That's what happened with Jerry Judy. They don't have a quarterback and that's fine. Their coach isn't going anywhere. I think Jerry Judy at wide receiver 32 is kind of a smash. now I don't think he'll have the like game wrecking

end of season type production all year you get eight to ten targets from the wide receiver one in Cleveland I think the eighth round for that is too cheap so he should be if you skip on the Alave the Addison the pickins the waddles and you wait for a Jerry Judy a couple rounds later I do not blame you

but he's a player that I definitely want. I talked about Devante Adams' 10th round smash pick. Absolute smash pick. We talked about that. And then I just want to hit on the quarterbacks because I'm a late round quarterback advocate. There's not really that guy right now. Mack Jones quarterback 41, played okay.

He still kind of sucks. I don't mind him in the 23rd round. I mean, Watson retore as Achilles. I'm not even going there, and I'm a quarterback desperate player. But like, Joe Milton, all right, you look fine, but like, is he going to start? I don't think so. So who are the shots? QB 33, Daniel Jones.

We once again take Daniel Jones. Quarterback 31, Aaron Rogers. We're once again drafting Aaron Rogers, Justin Clayce. Kirk Cousins, quarterback 30, fine with me. Derek Carr, quarterback 28, 14th round, fine with me. Russ at 29, tougher pill to swallow. This Justin Fields at 12 thing in the 12th round, I've never seen. I've never seen Justin Fields actually go quarterback 27.

He was like the ninth and eighth round in every draft that I've actually looked at. If people are already expecting him to start. But you get him at quarterback 27, I'm clicking them every time. And then these guys aren't really the late round. guys anymore. Gino and Stafford in the 10 and 11th round, though still good values at quarterback 25 and 26, you're leaving legitimate players on the board with those two. J.K. Dobbins, Janoo, Pollard, Naji, Jacoby Myers, who was great. You're leaving legitimate players on the board drafting those guys. So the later round quarterback strategy will

expand on a little bit later. But like we talked about off the top, quarterbacks might be getting pushed out of round one and even round two, but they are getting pushed up between rounds three and seven. So those eight, nine, ten, eleven, and beyond guys just don't look as good right now. And that's been my base strategy forever. So I'm going to have to really lock in and figure out who I'm okay, anchor quarterbacking, what round am I okay taking a quarterback instead of a sixth round wide receiver, which feels like the round I'm going to kind of skip out on. We'll see. at the end of the day. But overall,

let's get some final thoughts when we're getting out here. We're keeping this show short this week. We're going to try to do some of these a little shorter, a lot more quick-hitting advice in the off-season, keep everyone a little bit more engaged. So a lot of conversation about the draft board players we would and wouldn't draft.

You ought to let us know who you want us to talk about next time because I guarantee you the next time we bring up an ADP board. it's going to look different. It's going to look different. So that being said, we're going to do rankings and things like that. Starting next week, just got to get ours and Ryan Heath's and Theo Griminger's schedules aligned. If we can get three out of the four, we'll still do it. We'll still do three out of the four for everybody, talk about rankings,

implementing rookie picks, where we're going to put them, et cetera, because it is about that time. to get into the rookie pick values. That being said, Buck, any final thoughts on this draft board or fantasy in general? Yeah, I'll say,

you know, you looked at the later on quarterbacks. That's your thing. The whole time I'm looking at the running backs, seeing which late running backs I like. I love the 11th round, I think, has,

I mean, I love pretty much all those running backs sitting there in the 11th. If I can get, you know, all them, that's like throw a second for them range, Tony Pollard,

Trey Benson, Ramandre, Anaji. Also, like, I like Rico Dowdell in the 14th. I think he can actually get him cheaper than that. I don't even think he'll even go in the 14th. He'll probably go even deeper than that. I like Rashad White. He's in the 12th, probably even later than that. I think he's probably the best contingency bet we have in fantasy right now.

So I like him. And then even, you know, super deep. I like my guy, sincere McCormick. Anybody else? I'm talking about last round. Yeah, I like him. And I don't see him, let's go up a little more. Well, being the last round in any draft bucks in.

No, I see even like 18th round Nick Chubb. I'm interested in that. Take him there. But yeah, so there's some good. It's definitely, you know, R.B. Ray Davis and the 16th, another guy. Austin Echler and the 18th, I think, is a fine selection as well. He was putting up 10 points per game.

pretty much down the stretch and has looked pretty good in the playoffs as well some juice not as the guy you're telling me i could get an rb3 in the 18th round i mean we're talking about guys like kimani vidal still going in the 18th round because twitter can't let it go yeah and grendo's still in the 16th i like all those guys you know i have you know a lot of people ask me questions about you know running backs like they're in drafts when should i take running backs you know whatever I get a lot of those questions. I like answering those. I'm a nerd when it comes to the super late running back.

So if you have questions, just ask me, just tag me. The only way I see them is if you tag me on Discord. And if you have running backs that you want us to talk about, like super deep running backs, we can do that. Like, well, next week we probably do rankings. But we could, I can expand on them. I can even, like, write some stuff in Discord. Like, I could write some stuff about them if you need.

So just, you know, let me know and just ask and just tag us and we'll do it. That's right. Always keeping an eye out for the surprise you didn't mention your boy, Kendry Miller, Harvey, 46. I cannot believe you. I can't believe you left them off. That is just, you're insulting your people now. That's crazy.

That's absolutely crazy. That being said, that's going to do it for us. For this week, the Dynasty Points Market Report. You can follow Andy at Andy underscore Buckler. You can follow me at El Nostra Thomas. Lots of stuff happening in fantasy at all times. The one thing we don't want to do is project like we know more than we actually do. Let's use the information that we have in front of us and use it to our.

advantages in drafts to continue to build very good long-living dynasty rosters together. With that being said, remember they clear eyes, full hearts can never lose, and your best days are always spent tilting. Good night, everybody.