Fantasy Football Daily - Managing the Cap and Future Spending in the Draft with Brad Spielberger | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: March 23, 2023

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and cap expert Brad Spielberger (@PFF_Brad) of @PFF take a different approach to today's show, focusing on how the NFL Draft affects the salary cap and how teams should use it to manage their financial situation. BRETT WHITEFIELD'S 2023 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT GUIDE IS FREE TO READ WITH A NO-CHARGE LOGIN AT FANTASY POINTS. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode of On the Clock. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. And today we are joined by Brad Spielberger of PFF and Over the Cap. You can find them on Twitter at PFF. underscore Brad. Brad, welcome to the show.

They grabbed me. Heck yeah, man. I've definitely been a fan of your work, even predating your time at PFF. I don't think we overlap at PFF, did we? I don't think we did, yeah, no. Yeah, I think you joined right after I left. But anyways, I've been a big fan ever since you are at Over the Cap, and I thought it would be a great time to have you out with Friege. So, kind of coming to a halt here and the draft quickly approaching.

So, Brett, I wanted to... Can you just give the listeners a little bit insight into your background and how you're a CAP expert? Yeah, well, first, thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah. So, you know, went to law school and knew I wanted to work in sports in some capacity. Always been a, you know, fanatical football fan. And so overthecap.com, as you mentioned, where I still kind of contribute when I can,

is a website that has every single player contract we can get our hands on and then looks at the salary cap health of each team and all the things they're doing, all these very, you know, cash spending, positional spending, yada, yada, yada. So when I went to law school down at Tulane, we host this competition called the Tulane football negotiation competition, where we get law schools to come in and basically do a mock negotiations. Hey, you're the Dallas Cowboys, you're a Mari Cooper. That was the one for my year. I always kind of remember that.

But, you know, and say, you're negotiating a deal for this player. You can use stats and argue based on the market and he's better than this guy and yada yada and go through it. And so the guy that helps us put that on, who gives us all the comparable contract data, who judges the competition is Jason Fitzgerald, who runs over the cap.com. And so I kind of was like, hey, can I just be your apprentice, you know, during law school and do whatever. You'll let me do and learn all these things. And so, you know, one thing led to another. And he actually, you know, so PFF, as you probably know, uses over the cap data in any contract-related thing.

They have a data sharing arrangement. And so I was kind of right place, right time. I knew him. He started working with PFF. And then I guess PFF's team clients were like, hey, we kind of want someone who can speak on, you know, this language and knows more about salary cap and contracts. Are you interested in hiring anyone in that field? And, you know, there I was.

So that's about three years ago now and now we're here. Awesome. That's fantastic. All right. So Brad, so Freepancies kind of coming to that crawl we were talking about where, you know, most of the work has been done. Has there been any teams, as it relates to the draft, that have really set themselves up to be extra flexible, teams you think have made some savvy moves to kind of give them that, you know, because you never really want to get stuck into drafting just for need. Like, oh, we have to have a right guard this year or else we're screwed.

What team stand out to you? 100%. The first one really is a team that we were just talking about pre-show, and that is the Detroit Lions. I think every mock you saw had Devin Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez or, you know, some cornerback going to them at six, which of course made sense. And look, maybe they still go there at 18. I think they're not going to do it at 6 now. But, you know, to sign Cameron Sutton, I think underrated to bring in Emmanuel Mosley coming off the injury on the one-year flyer, a good value deal for the

healthy version of Emmanuel Mosley, you know, I think goes a long way to now they can, look, I still think interior defensive line is a big need for them. But you bring back John Kaminsky, you bring back Isaiah Bugs, guys that can kick inside and give you good reps there. So I think they really do now. We're also talking about DJ Shark. I don't think they need a receiver, but it could help. But long answer short, I think they now can really do whatever they want with both of those draft picks in the first.

And coming into it, I feel like we all thought like one of these guys has to be a corner. So they're one that definitely jumps out to me. Yeah. Yeah, them having two first and two seconds is probably nice for them because they could probably just do literal best player available in the first round and then maybe hit some more needs as you get into the second and third round there. Good. More developmental guys. I think interior passers should be the focus, though, for them if they're going to go after a need for sure.

Any other teams that stick out? Yeah, you know, I think, I guess Las Vegas didn't pigeonhole themselves into having to take a quarterback. I don't think I love the move to give Jimmy Grappolo that much money, but, you know, there were obviously a handful of those teams down there that needed quarterbacks clearly. And Carolina obviously jumped everyone. And so, you know, I think as much as I don't love the signing, I think it's probably smart to not find yourself in a jet situation. where you just are desperate and have one option at quarterback. Obviously, for them, it's a veteran. But, you know, I thought Las Vegas, I literally was like, oh, they better trade with Arizona now at three.

Otherwise, they're going to be starting, you know, Jared Stidham. I guess he signed elsewhere. But, you know, they're going to be starting a journeyman next year. And so I guess it was smart of them to bring in Garapolo. Now there's no glaring need. I probably would say they need interior defensive line as well. But that probably was smart just to avoid that, you know, desperate situation. Yeah, it seems, I mean, going into the Aussies,

and I predicted that Vegas would sign both Garabolo and Brissette, because that's just what Patriots coaches do. They just bring in all their guys. So I think there's a significant chance. McDaniels is probably even higher on Jimmy than anyone in the entire world is, you know? So I like the idea of bringing in an experienced guy that knows your system, but at the same time, I didn't like the deal.

So I agree with you there. All right, another thing that you kind of, I'm sure you could ask this a ton, Brad. you see a team's cap space available at this time of year. And some teams are sitting at 10, 11, 12 million bucks, and they have a whole draft class they have to sign. And I don't think fans truly understand what it takes to run a team for a season because you need some reserve for when guys get hurt in the regular season

and you also have to sign that draft class. Are there any teams that actually still have to do a little bit of work here with the cap before they go into the draft? Yeah. So you said, it's a great point. There's IR moves. There's, you know, all sorts of things that require you to teams want to have at least around 10 million in cap space, maybe five, but you maybe create some room during the year. So, yeah, the Minnesota Vikings are interesting.

They, as of today, they could not afford their draft class, even though it's a very small amount. They don't have a first round pick or they don't have a second round pick, excuse me, from the T.J. Hockinson deal. But they still, I think you have to look at maybe Brian O'Neill, the right tackle getting restructured or maybe they go a different avenue there. but they're an interesting spot to me. They're very tight up against the cap. They did restructure Kirk Cousins, but it's kind of interesting why they haven't touched any other contracts as of yet. What about the Eagles?

It seems like they're in a little bit of a pinch too, no? A little bit, yep. But they, you know, as always, they're one of those teams. We always talk with the Saints and how they push all their cap down the line. Somehow the Eagles kind of fly under the radar. They do the exact same thing and are very, you know, leveraged and push a lot of stuff into the future. So they still can't do that on a hand.

handful of contracts if they want to, and I imagine they probably will with a few of them. Lane Johnson jumps out. I think Josh Sweed is a candidate there as well to clear a little bit more real. Right now. All right, cool. So there's also a lot of talk about how the cap is going up and up and every year. And with that comes position groups specifically that are also increasing quite a bit. I think quarterback's the obvious one. But over the years, we've seen wide receiver market kind of go nuts, although this free agency class has probably been underpaid now. I think outside of the top very few names, it's been a really, really tough year. A lot of times the mid-market guys get above-average deals.

And for whatever reason, maybe it's the NFL being smart, that mid-market has been, has been non-existent in this free agent class. I wonder if the depth of the wide receiver classes, like the last five, six years in the draft, is finally caught up to where teams are realizing we can get guys in the draft pretty late and be comfortable with that. But that said, how do some of these, the positional, value from a dollar standpoint, how does that translate to the draft? Are there certain positions you think teams should prioritize the draft because of what you end up having to pay those guys? You know, maybe rather resigning a receiver, you just draft a new one and trade that guy and move

on like we've seen a couple teams try that route. Are there certain positions like that that you think it's smart to constantly throw darts on in the first round? 100%. Yeah. You know, and I think it is something we're seeing more and more. And I would say tying into this year's free agency too. I mean, interior defensive long, line. You know, obviously, specifically interior pass rushers, not like a peer nose tackle. But we always talk, I think, about the premium positions being edge, maybe wide receiver now, obviously quarterback, you know, tackle or left tackle if you want to get that specific. And I think, you know, speaking of Jason Fitzgerald over the cap, we wrote a book together about the draft

and positional value was a huge part of that. And part of it also is not just the contracts, which for interior defensive line are going to explode. They already have exploded, but we're going to see guys like Dexter Lawrence and Jeffrey Simmons, and they're going to sign, I mean, 25 million plus per year deal contracts, which is a big market correction there. But in the same vein, we looked at historical outcomes of draft picks and kind of the curve of, can you find this position later in the draft? And, you know, edge, unsurprisingly, it kind of falls off a cliff.

Interior defensive line does as well. It's very hard to find a good interior defensive lineman later in the draft. So I think that's when you're also going to see teams go early. on. So yeah, trenches to me, all the trenches, maybe not centers, but trenches. And then wide receivers still, even in a class that I don't think is particularly special, I think you'll probably see some of those guys going the first because it's just so hard to get a rest. I mean, look at the free agent class. There was none of them because teams aren't really letting them go. Great point about the big dudes there because, I mean, shoot, go walk on the street right now.

How many six, five, 300 pounds rocked up muscular dudes you see it on the street? Not many. those guys are rare and if they have elite you know physical traits as well you know agility speed think about a guy like mazzi smith yep you can't find guys that move like him at that size they don't grow on trees right so like yeah his production wasn't great in college but you probably have to swing on him way earlier than his production would dictate because you just don't find those guys late in the draft usually unless they're small school guys or whatever had a storied past or something but all right i want to ask you about running back because I know probably with your cap and contract background,

plus you're now your PFF background, you obviously understand the value or lack of value at the running back position. But I've been working this theory in my head, and you can feel free to tell me I'm an idiot or not. But if you got a guy like B. John Robinson, and he scores it, I don't want to say generational, that word is so overused and ridiculous, but a really, really good grade on this guy.

You know, he's a firm first round, 10, top. 10, top 15 player for you, would you rather have him on a first round contract, you know, with a fifth year option, a potential franchise tag than than signing a free agent running back to a big contract? Yeah. So it's funny. First, you mentioned, you know, the PFF thing. I always, every time I comment on on Twitter, they say, a classic PFF guy.

And it's funny because, again, like, part of our book was we wrote about with positional value, look, the example we used was Sequin Barclay going second over. all, he became the fifth highest paid running back in the NFL the day he signed. The next year, Nick Bosa goes second overall and was the 37th highest paid edge rusher. So it's like, I'm not even talking. I'm ignoring on field value and all that. I honestly think the quote unquote nerds, we go a little bit too far and thinking that like running backs are just totally replaceable and that any guy can just get you yards

and shake tackles and do all those things and break off explosive runs. Like that is kind of hard to do. My thing is more tied to if you're trying to get surplus value out of that pick. If you, you know, Sequin had to be a top five running back immediately. And he was, but, you know, whereas Bosa was, right away was giving you like tens of millions of dollars. So look, I think Bs, I know the word is used way, way too much. Bejon might actually be generational. Like he might actually fall into that conversation. Getting the fifth year option there, it's interesting. So historically, I probably would have told you yes. And the fifth year option, as of 2018, it used to be only guaranteed for injury, but not fully guaranteed at signing. And why that matters is Leonard Floyd is kind of a common example the last couple years of the Bears. You could pick up the option, but then you could cut that player if you didn't likely it in the fourth year and there would be no financial penalty. Now, the fifth year option is immediately fully guaranteed the second you exercise

it. And so I think that's why Josh Jacobs, for example, the team did not pick up his fifth year option. Of course, they go ahead and franchise tag him, but the difference was one and a half million dollars from his fifth year option to the eventual tag. So I still do think Pijon, like I wouldn't be mad if a team takes him the late first. You know, I don't know about top 10 or top 15. But, you know, if the team takes in the late first, I wouldn't, you know, again, I would get the arguments. I get people saying like, this is a waste of a pick, yada yada, I would be like, look, this kid is ridiculous. If you have the receiving ability, if you can pass protecting, you can do all those things, it's more kind of, you know, I'm cooler with it, so to speak.

But, but yeah, the fifth year option thing, unfortunately, like kind of lost some power a little bit too because, you know, like I said, The Jacob example, one and a half million difference is really not, you know, not that much. Yeah, that is pretty negligible. Eric Ebrod was another guy that got cut eventually, right, before it was fully guaranteed. That's a good call. Yeah, and just not only knock on running backs, I think tight ends on the field are extremely valuable. But I still probably would make the contract argument of, you know, taking Ebron 10th or Hawkinson 8th. Like, it's just, Kyle Pitts, you know, he might even be like an extra receiver.

But if you just look at contracts, not at the on-field value, you know, Pitts, became a top 10 paid tight end on the day he was drafted as well. That's crazy. I never actually thought about it in contrast to other positions. And the Bosa versus Sequin example was a, that's a fantastic juxtaposition there. So thank you for that. All right. I do want to keep the trend of fifth year option going here.

Quarterback. So you always hear this, oh, team should trade into the, you know, back into the first round to get that quarterback so we can get that fifth year. Does that actually make sense? Like say I got like a Hendon Hooker who you might have a top 45 grade on, but he's not necessarily first round guy for you. But as you know, there's only really 20 to 22 first round players every year usually. So somebody has to go in the first round that doesn't have a first round grade. So why not trade into the first round to grab your quarterback? Does that actually make sense, Brad?

110%. I mean, obviously the most recent example will be Lamar Jackson and it's already, you know, coming into play where last year he played on that fifth year option. Right. If he didn't have that, he's probably getting extended after his third season. And now he still hasn't been extended. He's played five years. So, you know, Jalen Hertz, great player. I'm not saying the Eagle should have traded up the 32nd to take him.

But, you know, he's going to get $50 million a year now after three seasons because, you know, they probably don't want to go into the franchise tag situation. Maybe they do. But yeah, so I do. Hen and Hooker specifically with his age and the ACL tear. Maybe it's a little bit tougher one. I know you're just trying to use, you know, a current example. But I do in a general sense.

Yeah, he's not 45 grade, but you think it's a weak class. at other positions, which I feel like this year kind of is, and you're sitting there and saying, you know, we're picking at 40, but that extra year of control, if we give up a, you know, a fourth or a third or whatever, to go up to 32, I think it is justifiable in that situation. Awesome. I think the listeners would be very interested in that,

because especially this time of year, it gets talked about a ton about, you know, teams reach into the first to grab that extra quarterback or whatever. So, sweet. So before we go, I got two more things I want to throw at you. who are some of the best GMs or front offices in general that they're good at managing CAP? Yeah. So the Philadelphia Eagles, I did mention they obviously, you know, they have pushed a lot of

cap into the future. But they legitimately, the Eagles do things. Other teams, I don't think even know you can do. I mean, they have the sharpest front office. And it's called football administration or the cap people. And they have, you know, two guys that probably could be. So High Roseman, of course, first of all, the GM came through. through that avenue. So he's one of the few, you know, he's not a pure personnel guy,

a evaluator as a GM, and then he has two people underneath him that both could be the top cap person at a different team. So they're definitely on there. And then more recently, the Buffalo bills have done a very good job of extending players early, which is one of the best ways you can do this. The Eagles are the best in the NFL at this. But, you know, getting good value on Tradavius White and Dionne Dawkins and Matt Milano and like always getting guys signed early before a market it explodes, has enabled them to, you know, like go out and trade for Stefan Diggs, pay us to Fond Diggs and a Josh Allen. And look, they're in a tough cap situation now. But, you know, we saw it in Kansas City, like trading away Tyreek Hill, it's hard to pay both of those guys.

And Buffalo did it because they've been so proactive in recent years. So I think them two jump out as good examples. You know, it's just teams that manage the cap very well. I'll throw one more in there for it. Let's see here. And no, we'll go with those two. Those two are the best recent examples for sure. Awesome. And then lastly, before we get going here, this is a draft show. And I know you're not just a contract guy here, Brad.

So do you have any draft takes, any player you'd like to pound the table for? Maybe a team player fit you just want to see happen. Great question. I'm trying to think early, too, because obviously things can change in a hurry. But, yeah, I guess, you know, one thing, I mentioned Devin Witherspoon earlier. as it relates to Detroit, I just think Christian Gonzalez, like if he's not the first cornerback taken,

I think that's crazy. Like, I love Witherspoon's game. I'm from Chicago. I'm going to bullshit right now. Like, you know, not that I'm an Illinois fan or anything, but I mean, the guy at the combine was,

looked like a linebacker on the podium. I mean, the dude is like jacked and big and, and, you know, could play more physical, but obviously Witherspoon, you know, wants to take your head off on every snap.

But it has the most fluid hips I've seen watching corners in like years, too. I just think if a team is going to go corner on the top 10, I think it should be Christian Gonzalez as the first guy coming off the board. Yeah, he's definitely the most physically gifted corner in this class by far. The only thing that stuck out to me is like a negative, and this is even just really grasping that straws for me. It's just his ball production wasn't on the level as even the top other five guys in the class,

whether it's Porter or Banks or Witherspoon we mentioned. So that's really, that's kind of being nitpicky, but, you know. No, that's real. Also, Deonté Bank. I think being slept on a little bit. Really good player. Yes, very much. I'm pretty sure DJ just put him, mock him in the top 20.

There you go. There you go. The buzz is growing there, finally. Well, right on, Brad. Thank you so much for joining the pod. That's going to do it. Fans listening, you can find him at PFF underscore Brad. He's got work on pff.com over the cap.

I know he's also a frequent guest on Sam and Steve's podcast. And do you do a weekly one with George? Yeah, we do the, betting one out, the PFF forecast. PFF forecast. So check them out there. And thank you again for listening. Make sure you stop over at FantasyPoint.com to check out the prospect guide,

which came out on Monday. And that'll do it for us. We are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.