Fantasy Football Daily - Misusing Contract Extensions In 2024 Dynasty Leagues

Episode Date: June 5, 2024

Don't misuse this dynasty strategy anymore in 2024. Dynasty Points is bringing you a how-to guide on dealing with the value fluctuations caused by new shiny contract extensions. Do we buy or sell based on these or discount them altogether? Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/JakobSanderson http://twitter.com/LGilbertFF http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Health FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It is Tuesday. That means it is dynasty points. And our team, Jacob Sanderson, Lucas Gilbert, Ryan Heath are going to bring you four different perspectives on different dynasty topics like we do every single week. This week is no different. Tonight, we sit down and discuss whether or not contract extensions should move the needle or not. Sit tight, sit back, get ready to tilt. and enjoy tonight's Dynasty Points. What?

What? Why are you shaking your head? You're welcome. Yes, as I said, it's Tuesday night, which can only mean one thing. You are here locked in to Dynasty Points because you are a sharp and smart dynasty player. Remember, if you haven't already, if you're watching on YouTube, hit that subscribe button, hit the notification button, leave a comment on this video. our links below to another video when this is done. Feel free to just hit that.

Leave a comment on that video, so on and so forth. It helps us a lot. We have some news for once, but not player-related news. It's just team member news. See, Ryan Heath has been on this show so much this last year. We just decided to make it official. Ryan Heath is now a full-time member of Dynasty Points. We have added the fourth member of the team.

So shout out to Ryan. Welcome to the Thunderdome officially. And then of course, if you haven't noticed over on the Bird app, the Dynasty Points Twitter handle, or the full tilt Twitter handle has changed. It is now been rebranded to Dynasty PTS. Everything left over from what you would normally see on Dynasty Points will be headed over to that. So if you are on X, you want to be following at Dynasty PTS. With that being said, I am your host with most time on his hands. I am Thomas Tipple. You can find me at El Nostra Thomas. My fun fact today is a pretty good one, in my opinion.

In my opinion. There was one show when I was wrestling in this fine country of Canada, when a man named Steve Carino once kicked me in the face and once he was done kicking me in the face as he was pinning me for the three count he told me how good

and how much better the Philadelphia Phillies were than the Toronto Blue Jays before the referee's hand hit three so shout out Steve Carrino and his love for the Phillies and kicking me in the face I'm Jacob my fun fact today of course is that Jason

Christopher Tatum has become the fifth play are an NBA history to lead his team into the finals, averaging over 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. By the time that we come back to you in your lives again next Tuesday, your Boston Celtics will be leading in the NBA finals. What a great time for us all to be alive. And we're getting NBA? So I'm going to keep up with the sports theme, but slightly different.

I'm Lucas Gilbert. You can find me on X at Gilbert FF. And my or your Tennessee volunteer college baseball team is the only team over the last four seasons to both average 50 wins a season and go to the Super Regionals each and every year. Wow. Anyone in the chat, by the way, who's talking about Luca, Luca, Luca, Luca, anyone who wants Vig free action at Jacob Sanderson on Twitter, hop into my DMs. If we want to just take the Vegas line and pick out the Vig, more than welcome, more than welcome to get that action down. And Ryan Heath. And I'm muted.

There you go. Welcome to the show, Ryan. Hey, thanks for having me. Ryan Heath on Twitter at Ryan J. underscore Heath. My fun fact is I'm excited to watch this Celtics team in the finals, but I have this friend who always believes that if I'm watching a Celtics play, off game and they're losing, it's my fault. This has gone back probably five or six years to when we were in college. I would not even be watching a game and I would get a text from him like, hey, shut the TV

off. What are you doing? Unhinged behavior. I have been a very casual NBA fan the last couple of years. I will be watching the finals. I will probably be getting a text from my friend. Yeah, if they lose, if they're losing a half time in the first game you watch, it's time to touch some grass, buddy.

everybody's got a good best. Yeah. Jacob, like I said, DMs are open. NISTIC. Feel free. The no time ever on Jacob's feed probably loses him more followers

on a yearly basis than NBA finals time when the Celtics are involved. People want all your football takes and you just go, no, and it's all Celtics. You're not getting my football takes. You'll get my football takes. You'll get my football takes.

in four to seven games. Brian Ford says Wix first down per route run over Lucas. So, I mean, we're worth thriving already in the chat. Tonight, as I mentioned, kind of an interesting topic. We don't do a lot of strategy conversation on the program. We do a lot of player specific, a lot of player analysis type. But per a lot of listeners and subscribers requests, we are going to get into something that I think is personally misused in terms of a dynasty strategy.

Jacob likes to say that I'm just an old man yelling at clouds and these things don't actually matter and I'm fabricating it. I mean, we've already had Ryan Heath tell me that I'm making up. No, it's not what you do. You do you build, you go into the farm and you look and you grab the big bale of hay and you collect. your straw and you make it into a Nico Collins shaped man. That's what you did. That's what you did last week. I couldn't be there.

I was working all week on an expedited hearing and my dumb, annoying legal job. It doesn't let me talk football and battle your scarecrows. You were like, just like Sillian Murphy and Batman begins. You were out there. You're a straw man. Wow. That was scarecrow, not straw man. But thanks for that.

Scarcrows are straw men. all scarecores are straw men but not all straw men are scarecrows oh my god well when we come back from the first break we're going to get into why jacob thinks uh my ideals are fraudulent and uh why i think this is a misused tactic tactic for most dynasty players so sit back relax

and we'll be right back after this break okay I've seen this a lot. And now even with the McCaffrey news, which we're not going to open with, there are no running backs that I selected for this example because, shocker, not a lot of running back signed extensions where we picked this data from because it just doesn't happen. The man is a unicorn. I mean, Christian McCaffrey just is.

So we will touch on, we'll wrap this conversation up with Christian McCaffrey. we do have another game. People love the last on the D-Bro so much. We brought it back. We have a new one, courtesy of Jacob. And we're going to wrap it up with Discord questions, of course. But let's talk about a misused dynasty strategy. Some people are very good at capitalizing on information.

I think a lot of the time when we see news like this in most of your leagues, the person with these players will put that player on the block right away. I mean, it's pretty much any time news happens, dynasty-wise, that player is on the block right away. And I always tend to believe that you should be early. You should be kind of looking for these things to happen. And I do believe that there is an upcharge when an extension like this happens because people believe that it gives them some safety. It gives them some longevity or that it means their production is going to significantly increase when really a lot of times their situations don't necessarily change.

So what I'm going to do is I'm going to ask each person on the panel how they approach this. Does it matter to them at all? How do they navigate it in trade conversations? So let's talk building your roster in leagues that already exist in terms of these extensions. I'll kick it off with Jacob, who wasn't here to pull the straw from my straw man last week? I think that it really depends on the player, which is a boring answer, but I think it really

does. At running back, I think it is more important, certainly in a wide receiver. Alvin Camara is an example that jumps out where if he had not gotten extended when he did, and if they had not continued to sort of restructure him in their very New Orleans Saint-Cy way to the point that he is virtually uncuttable this year, I'm not entirely positive he would be a member of the New Orleans. Saints in 2024. Like he is not very good anymore. And is not adding a lot of value on the ground, but they're in a spa with his contract where they're paying him a ton of money, whether he's

on the team or not on the team. I'm pretty sure that he's being more money if he wasn't on the team. And so long as he's on the team, he's still going to go out there and get touches. He's going to get receptions and he's going to be a starting player in fantasy football. So I think it can matter to that extent where you do get a little bit of protection and longevity. I think a quarterback, it matters especially because quarterback is very binary. You're either a starting quarterback or you're not a starting quarterback. So to me, like looking at, you know, not at the high end guys, but at these fringy guys. And if you want to look at who do I have a little bit more confidence in might be a starter

for an extra year versus not. I don't think that's a bad thing to factor into consideration. I don't think it really matters that much with the high end players because I brought up the example of a Camara, right? If you've been holding the bag on Camara since when he signed that extension, you know, obviously his value has still gone down precipitously. Once you're at the point where your contract is the reason you still have a job, you're probably not going very highly in times these startup drafts.

So I really wouldn't factor it in massively at the top end. And I certainly wouldn't factor in massively a wide receiver because as we know, there's really more to wide receiver fantasy points than simply being on the field or or having a job. If it goes, it goes. it doesn't matter how much they're paying you. Shout out to Kenny Gulliday. So I think that that is sort of how I feel about it. The maybe slight exceptions to this would be if someone is just in an especially outlier great spot, you know, maybe you're a little bit happier that they're staying

where they are versus, you know, maybe they don't sign it and they end up going somewhere else. By first, I think if you're Brandon Ayuk manager, you're rooting against the contract extension, right? I think if you're a Nico Collins manager, you're very happy. He's going to be on the Houston Texans for a long time. If you're a brand and I yuk manager, I think you're hoping that he's no longer on the San Francisco 49ers, if I had to guess, or at least that's how I view it as a Brandon I,

you're right. Yep, I think it's fair. I think you're right. It does, it kind of does depend on the player and the tier of player it is. Derek Brown says expecting contracts and players getting, getting them is a bit different. It is, but I said this last week in my supposed,

or accused straw man argument with Nico, if you believed that Nico was this top 12, top 13 talent heading into this year and his situation hasn't changed and his productions projected to be the same, then having him ahead in that ADP should have already kind of been in your plans. And then if you think he is that good,

I would assume, like Ryan said during our conversation, he was anticipating an extension close to this already. So I think there is a way to kind of anticipate a contract if a player you believe so strongly to be in that top 11 to 13 range. Like if you have IUC in that range, I'm imagining you're expecting him to get an absolute bag at some point because you just think he's a really good player. The thing with these guys is like it's really on the margins, right?

Like, like, Brett and I, you, it's not like he's not going to be playing football in the NFL. It's just like, the only thing we don't really know is we just don't know exactly how long he's going to be on the 49ers. And then if he's not on the 49ers, we don't know where else. So, like, it's not, you know, if he signed a contract extension tomorrow, that's probably like the neutral option, right? The best option is he goes and signs somewhere that's extraordinarily favorable, better than the 49ers. And certainly there are places out there that are worse than the 49ers. So you're sort of baking all that in. But just purely a contract extension, like, I think that Collins, like, I guess the reason why I took some issue with the argument that happened last week is like the gap between how I value a player at wide receiver 12 or a wide receiver 18 is like almost non.

Like it's just a very tight scale of guys already. Yeah. They're like, I'm looking at my like when I'm in a startup draft and there's like, of these guys. I'm kind of just like, okay, I guess I like this one the best. But if the person before me, it took that guy, I'd have to take a different guy, it really wouldn't change my outlook all that much. So might I move Nico Collins up a little bit in my ranks because of this? Sure, it could be a tiebreaker where, okay, now I know for sure they're going to choose him. You know, he's going to be one of their guys that they're committing to long term. I think this sends a little

bit of a signal that digs probably truly is a one-year option for them, especially if Tankdell also performs and looks like a guy they want to extend at some point. So it's a positive. It doesn't massively alter my view of him, but like maybe a couple of other guys that I would have seen him as like right on the fence with, maybe he moves the slightest bit ahead of them. But how much of that change in the context of the wider market in terms of how much he's worth like overall in a trade? Like not much. I don't know. Maybe he's worth. what, an early third more than he was before the contract, a late second maybe, something like that would be like the total effect.

But that might be enough to move up four spots positionally because it's really tightly packed. And I think for a reasonable person, that would be an acceptable train of thought. But when you, and look, I openly admitted that when Ryan and I discussed this and Ryan, I'm going to pitch this to you right away here, when we discussed this, I directly stated that it was based off of some overreactions that I had. had seen from Sharp Dynasty players that I follow, which is where I got the argument to begin with. So, Ryan, you had mentioned that you had already kind of expected this. How would you go about approaching players? And they don't just have to make a Nico. It can be Waddle. I mean,

Michael Pittman Jr., Devontas Smith. There are so many wide receivers in this tier that got their extensions. It's kind of just leveling it out further to me. How are you approaching trades? Does it change it for you? And how do you look at extensions? Yeah, so sticking on Nico for a second, I think what's important here, as you said, you said earlier on, oh, well, if you value him as a top 12 or top 13 type of talent, why should this change anything? I think with Nico specifically, the issue is, I don't think most people that have Nico as a top 14 dynasty wide receiver would say, oh, yeah, he is very clearly. I'm very confident that he is a top 14 talent, and that's why I have him there. A big part of the reason why Nico Collins is valued where he is in dynasty is, as Jacob said, because he is paired with C.J. Stroud and now that's for the foreseeable future. So, Nico is a case where it's okay, I can be more certain that a lot of what's feeding his dynasty value is going to continue at least a few years more.

Therefore, sure, I think it makes sense to bump him up a little bit. He's still in the same tier for me. then you take a guy like waddle who with jalen wattle before the extension i my take on him was basically i think he's a really talented player he kind of ran cold on a lot of the not stable stuff last year he's still insane per route all the things you look for i am very confident in jelan waddle as a talent he gets his extension yeah that that doesn't really change anything for me it was kind of expected It's nice, I guess, that we know he's going to remain in this system, but it's not something that materially changes my view on a Waddle.

I didn't move him at all when the extension happens. So, yeah, it definitely depends on the player, but more than anything, I think it's important to know whether an extension is affecting the source of that player's dynasty value. For Jail and Waddle, it's not really about, oh, this is his situation and his landing spot. why we love him so much. It's if you're a believer in Jalen Waddle, the talent who can go out and command targets and make big plays,

then that's why you haven't valued where you do. Love that. Does it change? I'll ask this question after. Lucas, I want to get the same thing from you when you're looking at these players. Does it change it for yourself when you're approaching it? Not really.

Like, I know it's easy to get caught up in the excitement of everything from a player signing a massive deal. But I think whenever I'm actually being rational and not in the excitement of it all, then it really doesn't change anything. Their situation doesn't change. It just means that they're going to be with that team for a little while longer. Maybe that makes you feel like you have more security tied up in it.

But whenever they're going in the first six rounds and they're not a running back, there's already a law of security already tied up and how they're being valued. I think that if you're looking a little bit further down, down the list, then maybe that will start to influence a little bit more if the team comes out, signs somebody who isn't as highly valued in the community as you're expecting to a bigger deal saying we value this player a lot. Just like whenever a rookie gets unexpected draft capital, that's a bigger signal to me than somebody that we already think is good is getting a contract extension for a lot of money. So you're on Rashad Bateman? Is that what I'm hearing now?

I'm always in on Richard Bateman although I have traded him away a lot this off season so yeah I'm finally cashing gal all those

201's training away for 2025 I feel real good about myself yeah you know whose contract matters to me

um Derek Carr you know who costs 51 million dollars against the cap after this season Derek Carr right like that

that's a guy who is basically free in Dynasty Leagues. And I'm here to tell you that it's extraordinarily likely he is a starting quarterback for two more seasons. Like it's just it just is. Nobody likes it. Nobody wants to hear it. But unless you think that the Saints are going to be abjectly awful this year, which I really don't think there's any reason to think that there'll be anything but their mid-average eight and nine selves,

like they always are, then like I don't see them being in a position where they're like, we can get rid of Derek Carr. Maybe they can. Teams will do it, right? Like, you know, it happened with Russell Wilson where a team unshackled itself. It'll happen with their teams, but it's harder, right? Like, it's just, it's just this. You know, Daniel Jones is another example where I don't know if Daniel Jones would be

the giant starting quarterback this year if he didn't sign that big extension. Maybe. I don't think so. I think if he had just played that year out, you know, let's say they had done the fifth year option, right? He plays last year on the fifth year option,

doesn't get extended. I feel like, feel like we're not sure where Daniel Jones is playing this year. But sometimes if a team is like, well, I don't really know what else we're going to do. We're already paying this guy,

a boatload of money. I guess he's still a starting quarterback. You know, and that stuff matters a lot in Superflex. But, yeah, all these wide receivers were talking about are good. They were always going to be good. And if they,

if they ever become a, if there ever becomes a reason where like the only reason Nico Collins is a Texan is because of his contract, then like the, then the bet failed at that point. Right. There's a couple of comments that I want to address because it's kind of going to move to my next point in this where Derek Brown says this can be the difference maker for players in the same tier. What I find interesting is a lot of these guys getting extended, I have or did have in a flat

tier. And as they were starting to get extensions, there are kind of, you know, almost moving one rung up the ladder over the other and now we're right back to square one because a lot of these guys have gotten their extensions like I mentioned the Michael Pitman Jr's the Jalen Waddles we're waiting for T. Higgins but

sure enough whether he gets extended or but whether he gets extended or if he gets signed like whatever his next contract he's going to just rejoin the ranks of that same flat tier of wide receiver like you mentioned right now he's kind of the let's say the odd man out. Yeah I mean

T Higgins is not Tegan's situation doesn't bother me. Like it's, it, it, I guess it depends on how you feel about the Cincinnati landing spot. Like, or like, I would, I would characterize the Sinci position for him is probably like above average. Like I don't think it's like the world's greatest spot to be because you're competing with Jemar Chase. I think if there are places out there where T. Higgins could be better than what he is right now, I think there's probably more places where he could be worse than what he is right now. So, but like, I don't know, it is what it is.

If you're, if you're getting T. Higgins, you're getting one year of him on the Bengals, most likely. And then you're trying to price in whatever you think is the aggregate of the other 31 teams, because that's where you're going to be next year. You know, so I don't think it's a thing where like, I don't think, I don't know, like, I'm not going to just when he signs move him up. We'll see where he signs. If he signs somewhere good, then we'll move him up. And if he signs somewhere bad, then we'll move him down. And for now, we're going to try and average it. the best that we can't.

Yeah, 100%. There was, like he said, difference maker for players in the same tier, and Spencer Adkins popped in and said,

Kirk is an example. And I agree. Christian Kirk's contract boosted him up above a lot of other scrubs within that tier. He's still woefully underpriced, mind you.

So buy more Christian Kirk. But that's my next point that's going to lead me to, do you, it's easy. It's easy to say you don't move these guys up, but if someone comes knocking on your door, right? For me, if I know that I can,

I'm going to upcharge him a little bit. Like, I'm going to use the positive news in my favor. I think Dynasty Manager should do that. Does it change your approach for moving or tiering around these players for yourselves? And this time, I'll start with Ryan. I mean, yeah, when you're in a negotiation with another person, of course, you're going to spout off whatever. positive point like that you can think of it. It's kind of this weird game we play where if Thomas

and I are negotiating for Nico Collins, then he's going to start talking about, oh, he just got the contract when it almost at the same time, both of us understand that neither of the other cares or thinks that that's like a relevant point. But you're always going to do that in a dynasty trade negotiation regardless. I would just say when it, to moving guys based on a contract, I think it's important to keep in mind that when these guys are signing these contracts just in terms of at the point in their career. So if it's a really good wide receiver after year three or kind of later on, these aren't the times during the players' careers that they typically break out. We kind of know what all these players are. So I think that's

something that is kind of being missed in this conversation where we're not getting new information about only the player themselves. That's something we find out much earlier in their career. That's when we find out if they're going to get a new contract or not. We generally know ahead of time just based on the performance on the field, the talent evaluation. And I guess I do want to just jump back kind of on the T. Higgins point where yes, I feel like we see this a lot with guys where we're kind of wishcasting in terms of, oh, well, imagine if T. Higgins went to a different team where he didn't have to compete with Jamar Chase. And maybe at one point in like the history of the NFL, that was like a valid point. But honestly, now all of the,

almost all of the teams with good quarterbacks that are going to support good fantasy wide receivers, almost all of them have multiple guys, right? It's very rare at this point that you have the high octane passing attack that is centered around only one wide receiver. And I think that's something teams are doing intentionally. I think they've realized, yes, it creates these increased gains to have multiple receivers under contract that are both on the field at the same time. It is a synergistic effect in terms of real football and what is happening on the field

in terms of the offense scoring. So I don't think just in maybe for in the future, I can't think of an example off the top of my head, but that guy who you're saying, oh, well, maybe he's going to get to the end of his rookie contract or maybe the high target commanding veteran that is across from him is going to get traded away or whatever. It doesn't, that's not the natural way things seem to flow in the NFL. No, it's a good point. Jacob, I know what you're, I'm pretty sure I know what your answer is going to be.

Probably going to be something boring. Like, uh, maybe you're in a trade negotiation. Oh my God. I can't believe you. I have Nico Collins. You all my Nico Collins. I can't move to go Collins. He just signed a big contract.

He's the best five receiver in the world. I mean, obviously. Come on. What are we doing? I was fully expecting like, oh, I don't know. It doesn't matter to me. Not boring. But no, you are right in terms of like you should be, you should be obviously puffing your chest out.

So if you're in a trade negotiation, I think Jacob just hit that on the head. Unless Lucas, you have something different to add to that. But I think you should be using these to your advantages. What you heard is for people to, well, I think it matters a little bit more. and I think my three compadres here. But you just heard these three guys, Lucas, Jacob, and Ryan all tell you that it doesn't matter. And at the same time, the second we asked the question, does it change how you trade players away? It's yes.

So use what you have at your disposal. If that is a contract extension, use that. We said on the walkabout for years that you need to lie, cheat, and steal like Eddie Guerrero. in every single trade negotiation. And it is right. Maybe on another program we can touch on some how to tier sideways and kind of decide which ones you want to be in or out of. So awesome.

What we're going to do right now is we're going to take a break. And when we come back, I want to talk about some of the players that signed some extensions and how it's worked out for them previously, just because I think this is something kind of interesting to look at in terms of we see the extension and how does it actually affect production? I found this little interesting on the study. So quick break here and we'll be right back with that.

Okay, as much as this year has been a wide receiver haven for extensions, there were quite a few extensions in 2022, heading into 2023. 23. Let's talk about those. I have the list because I'm a prepared professional for podcasting. So here is my list. Now, you guys can point out to me which ones you think are the most interesting, not interesting, whether or not they cared. One thing that I noticed was dollar figures.

I found very interesting. The Stefan Diggs one, we obviously know how that turned out. The Tyree Kill one, we know that. DJ Moore's 3 for 61 looks like a bargain Devante Adams 5 for 140 Terry McClurens 3 for 68 I found it interesting that the numbers to me for these mid-tier contracts hasn't drastically

gone up but the high-end extensions have ballooned I feel like these are kind of close to the Michael Pittman Jr. extension and Devonto Smith extension for this year but Devo Samuel signed 3-year 71 DK three years 72, Terry, three for 68, Cooper Cup, three for 80, just as for some examples. And a lot of these point differentials, now obviously negative nine points for Cooper Cup. That was obviously after his God season getting hurt, et cetera, that changed that. AJ Brown stayed exactly the same at a negative 0.5 points per game.

AJ Brown was like, I'm going to take my money and I'm just going to fucking ball and that's what he did but i have seen tyrie kills bumped up dj moore's bumped up devontay adams lost some because he's not playing with aaron rogers anymore at that point uh terry mcclars was about the same dk the same debo three point one in the plus for wide receivers what this tells me is that teams are just paying for what they know they're going to get to me it doesn't seem like the production skyrockets uh they're going to use them in a different way they're being signed for what they are one thing I do see a lot.

They sign the extension. That means they're going to use him this way, this way, and this way more. That is a part of the conversation that I see often. And I wanted to discuss it. I found the Anjoku one kind of interesting because his production kind of stayed the same. Russell Wilson stayed the same. And then Kyler Murray, obviously, he got hurt. And that was the reason he got absolutely nuked for his ADP at that time.

But do you find a, do you expect a difference in you? usage when these guys sign or do you find them? The answer to that question is mostly no. I want to get ahead of what I fear to be an inevitable takeaway from this list, which is people will be like, oh my God, why do they all go down after their contract extension? There's some new one for that, obviously. Yeah.

And I mean, that would be like you couldn't design a better example question for a lecture on selection bias than this list, which is like, you know, first of all, we just know, once you're a veteran in the dynasty landscape, you're more likely to do worse than to do better. And every successive year. That's, that's universally true. That's especially universally true when we're talking about very good players. The only people who get contract extensions are very good players.

Right. Players also are more like to sign contract. Yeah, that's true. Because Bateman did sign a contract extension this year. It blows my mind. Or, or, that is also, it's also true that most players are, again, Bateman being an exception to this, are more inclined and the team is more inclined. Both parties are more inclined to sign contract extensions after good seasons.

You know, if a player has a terrible season, either the team doesn't know if they're part of their plans or the players thinks, okay, now is not the best time for that leverage. Usually contract extensions are being signed in a place of harmony. In the case of some of these wide receiver extensions, I believe at least two of them, maybe more, we're also coming right after trades. And so that's, you know, there's potential confounding effects from a change in an environment from that, all sorts of things. Just the point is, is once we're focusing the pool down to players who just played well enough

to get contract extension, The inevitable result is that all of those players statistically are more likely to have a worse season than the one they just had to earn them that contract extension. And it's not the contract extension itself that is causing that. It's just the natural effect of buying high, which is just usually what happens. I think it's also very interesting with these wide receivers just in this year because of how crazy the 2022 off season was. These are wide receivers that are all competing with each other for placement. in ADP. And as Jacob was pointing out, like, these are all the elite to very high-end wide-receiver

ones, high-end wide-receiver-2, slow-in wide receiver ones. So the only thing that can change the way that we perceive them, because we're already expecting them to be good, it's tough whenever they're this far into league to have a completely otherworldly season that brings their value up more. But the fun thing about these contract extensions is it has nothing to do. obviously they were good on the field so they got the extension but the way that the ADP is looking at them has nothing to do with what their performance is on the field and we have this free inject in value that we actually get to you know play around with you brought up some of the other you know situations that were happening with players being traded and then immediately signing extensions with their new teams that has something to do with also like what their production is going to be and is a little bit more on top of them just getting. extension but across the board there's pretty good correlation between player x signs extension you have a nice little short bump immediately following or like in the month following that happening and then

you know you get to live with that during the season obviously you know usually their value goes down just a little bit because they're another year older and so on and so forth but there is a nice trend and just that little inject and value that you're not going to get from any of their action happening to the player other than like a big trade or something like that happening. Or you get a brand new quarterback that you weren't expecting to throw them the ball, especially for the wide receivers. I think Thomas kind of unintentionally made the most important point here just when he was reading down the list when he's saying like, oh, well, Devante Adams, yeah, that was,

his fantasy points per game fell because he wasn't with Aaron Rogers anymore. And, oh, Cooper Cup, yeah, he just had the big year and then he had the injury. If you can just look at all of these contract extensions and think back to the 2022 and the 2022 season and immediately pick out the reason out of your brain for why this player did or did not perform better or performed worse. And notice that not a single time did Thomas say when he was reading down that list. Oh, yeah, that was because he signed that contract and they decided to throw to him more after that.

no, it just isn't how it works. And we just, the game of football is just more chaotic than that. There are so many other things that can happen during the course of a season that have a much higher impact on a player's value, whether that be an injury or a new quarterback or whatever it might be. So, yeah, I really think when we are sitting here, like in June and discussing this. guy just got a contract extension. To some extent, this is content brain. We just need the thing to talk about because the contract extensions are the only thing that are really happening this time of year.

So, but it, as Lucas points out, that does have a tangible effect on the dynasty value of that player, at least in where they're getting ranked, like on these aggregator sites or whatever, or in the ADP, whether that is going to change your luck in actual trade negotiations might be a separate topic. But yeah, I think that that kind of covers it, that there isn't a material fundamental change in any of these players, but maybe there isn't their value in how you approach trading them. Yeah, I love that. And a big part of what I have been talking about in the Fantasy Points Discord, which all you need

is a free login from FantasyPoint.com. All the Dynasty content in there and Dynasty channels in there are free to access. So hop in there and have these conversations with this. These are the times to do my favorite thing. The thing that Ryan rolls his eyes at me for or for saying constantly. And it's to take advantage and acquire more liquid assets and tear down, baby, because these short-term boosts for these guys give you more. That window just cracks open like Toronto Dave says. Contract season is a trade catalyst.

And I just want I agree. I just want to find like I need a chain. of Pomas Tipple tieredown exchanges on busy streets across North America where I just get to walk in to an ATM

and I get to type in my sleeper name and I get to punch in whatever player we're talking about that day oh I press golf ads oh my God look at this I just got the same production in a second round pick

it's going to be great yeah and then the machine breaks so great the world would be so great if we can install these ATMs at nightclubs across North America. Yeah, and then the ATM breaks when you punch in San Leporta because Tom has a completely

opposite take on that. That's true. Sam Leporta, you can't exchange Sam Leporta into the into the tieredown machine. No, I can. I don't want to. Tom's proprietary software is blocked San Leporta from being inserted. Correct. It's the code is not in there. I have, I have to get IT in there to tell me to turn my computer off and back on again because Sam LaPorteurter just doesn't show up anywhere in that coding I love getting bullied on my show. That's a great time. This is what I come here for.

I come here for the people and to get bullied. I love putting together like live on air. I realize Oh, Thomas has been inconsistent on something. I need to speak up right now. That's just my, I just get a rush from that. I get so. Jake has been trying to, Jake has been trying to do that for years.

I'm very open on the fact that I'm just not, I don't want to trade Leporta. That's where that whole thing comes down to. I just, I just don't want to do it. But if what my biggest point is, is once you, if you know your league well enough, which we talk about constantly on this program, and you know that those reactionary boys, like you see on Twitter, where Jacob says I build my strongman arguments, if you know they exist within your league, that's your advantage. right and that's where contract season becomes a trade catalyst just to yeah that i'm just

going to package all that up so i have that audio i can clip that audio and when ryan says that i contradict myself i'm going to play that audio every single time i'm i'm prepped for this ryan i've been doing this long time with the lawyer all right we're i'm i'm ready to offend this shit we're ready to go all right uh yeah in summary use use the contract season to your advantage. I mean, you absolutely should be. This is a time in a kind of a slower part of Dynasty season post-Rookie draft rush to actually really put a lot of this to the test and go out and make some moves with these guys. Okay, Jacob, we got another game. It was a big hit. When we come back from our last little breaky break here, because we're going to go game, straight into

Discord questions and get out. Well, I'm going to going to have you describe how this game is going to work to Lucas, Ryan, and myself. And we are going to have another phenomenal time getting absolutely hosed in this game. So sit tight. OK. All right, Puff the Magic Dragon. Let's explain that. All right.

Here's that's going to work. So full disclosure, this was last week's game. I try to do a game that fits within what we're talking about on a given week. I had fully intended to be on last week's show until I got called into a last minute hearing. So last week, the show they were talking about veteran production, and so I

decided to basically take probably the most popular part, I would say, of the first game, make it into a full-time thing, which is the name that player game. And we're doing five name that players. And because we were talking about old player production last week,

the one unifying theme, so this can be a clue that applies to all five players. All right. All of these players had 1,000 yards or more from scrimmage at the age of 29 or later. Okay. Okay. So these are all all players who aged like a fine bottle of Merlot. The way this will work.

Wait, wait. How recent? How recent? Oh, like all over the place. Okay. Like ever. Okay. Okay.

Okay. I can tell you that at least one of them was, I believe, in the 2010. and at least one of them was in the 1980s. Okay, that's more of what I was looking for. All right. And just a thousand yards from scrimmage. A thousand yards? No,

I'm going to give you more clues. So as we did this, this is the same game we did with Derek Carr with Cam Acres, which is where I'm going to start, I'm going to give a total of five, or up to a total of five clues. If you get it after the first clue, you get five points.

Second clue, four points, third, three, four, that sets you down to one point. I do not make any promises. not to arbitrarily double the amount of points to make it entertaining at any point in time. That's something that I reserve the right to do. I also reserve the right to triple the points. You never know.

What's going to happen with that. What I can also tell you is the, well, first of all, Brian Ford, yes, the chat's allowed to exist. Anyone can choose to type whatever they want in the chat. I will allow the chat to play along if you beat them. Well, Brian tied me last week, so. Yeah. Okay. Also, again, the one ruling, if people missed it from,

is that if someone does not guess on a given round, so say Ryan guesses on the first clue and he's wrong. That means Ryan cannot guess again the next round until Tom and Lucas have guessed. But you can't hoard your guesses forever. You can't just be like, oh, I'm sitting out this whole round and Ryan never gets to guess again. You only get that for one round.

So without any further ado, their first player for our first clue. Player one. This player was selected fifth overall in the 2000 NFL draft. Ryan, you're the new full-time member. You get to go first. Remember, you guys can all pass if you want to pass, but if anyone wants to take a shot,

fifth overall pick in the 2000 NFL draft. Yeah, I'm going to pass. We'll see what these guys think. Trying to remember. I'm going to pass for now. Oh, coward. A bunch of cowards. Okay, we got a lot of cowardice here.

So a thousand yards, a thousand yards in the 2000 draft. Or you got a thousand yards after he's 29 and older and was drafted fifth. Is it cheating to look at the chat? I should just move the chat. I'll let you guys do whatever you want with the chat. All I'll say is that if you guys guess in the chat, I'm not going to say anything about your guesses. I'm not, you can say whatever you want. I'm not saying anything to verify.

Same is my safe word, Derek. You guys can take the chat's advice. The only thing I will ask is if you're in the chat and you want to play along, feel free. Please do not look up the answers. Please do not like Google the answer and post in the chat. If you want to, if you want to Google, Google. If you want to post, post. No posting and Googling.

Yeah. If we see you go like perfect scores, we know what's up, all right? Yeah. Although I'll still argue that Derek Brown cheated. last time. I'll pass. I'll pass. One. Okay. I'll pass. All right. I'll pass.

Okay. I was going to call Derek Acheter. Second clue. Second clue. This player was on a college national championship team, but he missed the championship game with an injury. Oh man. That's gonna

look it. And up. I'm going to guess. I have two players in mine. I'm going to guess Willis McGahey. That is incorrect. Ooh, that's, a good guess though does anyone else want to guess for four points uh four points i'm gonna look up willis mcgay that is like actually a good guess that might have been really close on a lot of counts

yeah that's yeah he was drafted in oh he was a first round pick but three years later i do believe he had a thousand yards at 29 or older um and i do believe that that your your other clue is correct so pretty darn close can i go uh in 2000 man, this might be... We're giving it 10-second warning for guesses here. That is incorrect. Ryan, you can either guess now or you get first guess guaranteed after the next clue.

Yeah, we're passing on this one. Oh, you play it safe, McGee, over here. Okay, third guess. Okay, so first clue, fifth overall in the 2000 draft. On a college national championship, I missed the game with injury. Third clue, this player played for only two NFL teams, but some fans might argue it's only one team.

Lucas is really mad because he knows it and he thinks I'm going to get it, but I'm totally not. What is that? Fans would argue it's only one team. Derek just figured it out, I think. We've got an oh ha ha ha in the chat. Ryan, I'm going to give you a 10 second one. I don't know. I'm just going to, I'm going to not embarrass myself.

I have no idea. Okay, it's open for anybody. You want to get a guess in. Lucas is it Jamal Lewis it is Jamal Lewis yes

it took a number of the 1998 Tennessee volunteers but he only played four games that season he played for the Ravens

then he played for the Browns of course you know you can all right we do we do think he's a raven only

there you go that's good good Derek was on the right track here he said it had to be a raven or a brown three points

this is the first time we've gotten one before the final clue So I'll read out. The next clue would have been matching his draft position. Lewis was the fifth player in NFL history, or I would have said, this player was the fifth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards.

And the last clue would have been this player's final 1,000-yard season came in 2008 as a member of the Cleveland. Okay. Those last two would have been clear. I did not know Jamal Lewis was a, was fifth overall. That's crazy. We valued running back on that team.

They had priest homes on that team. Crazy. All right. You have me thinking, Oh, it must be a wide receiver. Fifth overall. Wow. That's what I was thinking.

Like, we're living with today's brain. All right, next player. Let's go. Okay. All right. This player was drafted 13th overall out of the University of California, Berkeley. Cal, okay. Lucas gets first dibs, I imagine.

He's the winner of the last round. Well, anybody wants to. I'll give a 10 seconds on this. Nobody guesses on the first clue. 13th. 13th overall from Cal. You didn't give a year. I did not give a year.

Okay. I'll pass. After his playing career, this player has appeared on NFL coverage for CBS, Fox, and Amazon. Coverage for Fox and Amazon. Who covers football for Amazon? Amazon should narrow it down. I usually mute that broadcast. From Cal, 13th overall.

Who? went to Cal? We're not, you're not going to give us a position, obviously. I'm going to say, you might at some point. You might.

I can tell you the position, if we get to the fifth clue, the position will be revealed in the third. 13th from Cal who put up a thousand yards that late in his career. I'll go to Sean. I'll go to Sean Jackson. That is incorrect. Anybody else?

Okay. This player has the all time record for most perceptions at their position. He has the all time record. for receptions at his position and he went to Cal. All time NFL record to be. And all time NFL. We should know that pretty easily. All time NFL leader for receptions at their position.

I'm not allowed to guess here. And they went to Cal. I am going to lean on the chat here, but it does make sense. Let's say Tony Gonzalez. That is correct. Lucas six points. Tom zero. No idea.

He went to Cal though, but the rest of the chance. I was too embarrassed to guess. I was too embarrassed. to guess it because I'm like, oh, this will be funny at the chat. It started to get a whole lot easier. As soon as you said, I shouldn't have guessed. God damn. Next clue would have

been in his final season at age 37. He compiled 859 yards from scrimmage. And the final clue would have really given it away with 14 pro ball appearances. He has more selections than any other tight end in the second most appearances of any player in NFL history. Tony Gonzalez, you're a goat.

All right. All right, let's go. Third player. Lucas is at six. You know what? Lucas is at 5. The chat's at 1. Thomas is at 0 and Ryan's at 0. You know, I'll, I will take that. I'll take that.

There we go. Depeche has won. Okay, this player holds the NFL record for most rushing yards in a single post season. Oh, can I guess? In the single post. Yeah, that's the game. Marshawn Lynch. Incorrect.

Oh, I thought he was going to give it to you. The Cal theme, apparently. The most, he has the most rushing yards in postseason history, not in one season total. In one postseason? To be clear, it's the most rushing yards in any one postseason. Okay. So it's not the most postseason rushing yards total. It's the most in a single post season.

In one post season run, they have to be real, real goaded. Uh, you did say someone was going to be in the 80s. And I'm wondering if this is what it is. can I go with Eric Dickerson? That is incorrect. Lucas, would you like to guess or do you want first divs

after the next clue? I'm going to say Thurmond Thomas. Incorrect. Okay, everybody can guess everybody can guess. This player shares a last name with a famous TV character who played the same position.

What are these clues, bro? Oh my God. Played the same position on TV? or like you played the same position in high school. And the TV character with the same last name played the same position as this player. Jesus. I got to think of like Friday night lights. And I got to think of so many different.

Oh, my God. Five. Four. I got nothing, brother. I got nothing. Two. One. All right.

This player had 375 rush attempts and 24 rushing touchdowns in his age 34 season. Imagine that in Twitter. What is it? Is it John Riggins? That's correct. John Riggins. Three points.

Five, three, one. I'm thinking Tim Riggins. I knew I was going to be Friday Night Lights. Jim Riggins is the Friday Night Lights character, played fullback. John Riggins technically played fullback. I'm sitting here trying to think of like all the Friday Night Light characters in my head. And I finally got it. I couldn't remember the actual NFL

help here's name. That's the one from the 80s. We got it. That is the one from the 80s. Yeah. Okay. Next player. It is 5.3.1 for the chat and then zero.

Derek is being a great chat member in that he is stating that he knows things and he's giving clues, but he's not actually ruining the answer. So shout out Derek. Appreciate it. Okay. Player number four. This player is the first ever one. wide receiver to win the Heisman

trophy and did so at the University of Notre Dame. Who won the Heisman at Notre Dame? Come on, come on, Devey, guy. This is all you. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Oh, sorry. One second. He botched it.

He botched it. Sorry, I bought the clue. I want to recount. I bought the clue. One second. Okay. Okay. Because no one ever won the I'll put it this way. The Wikipedia page phrased this in a very confusing way. So I believe he was the first wide

receiver to win the Heisman at Notre Dame, but it's not actually the first wide receiver to win the Heisman. But whatever. He played at Notre Dame and he won the Heisman. I'm played a Notre Dame and won the Heisman. I'm already going to tell you, I'm not going to guess. I can already tell you this because I don't know wide receivers that come out of Notre Dame,

let alone is that good. Okay. Lucas looks like he's like searching for his soul. It's right over. Yeah. Or three. No, we're good. We're good, baby.

All right. This player had nine straight thousand yard receiving seasons from 1993 through 2001. 1993 to 2001, nine straight. And he went to Notre Dame. Ah. I'll pass. I'll pass on that. That's crazy.

Anybody? Anybody ever seeing shaking heads? All right. Down to the next clue. It's an audible, guys. This is a podcast still. This player. played all but one year of his career

with the same team. However, that team changed cities while he played for them. Okay. Oh, what teams changed cities? That's just so 93. No, not Ravens. Cults? No, I don't know, man. From 93 to 2001, he

had nine straight. Then he played for two teams. But that one was a one year. year. This is brutal, dude. All right. I got nothing. I got absolutely nothing. I got nothing. I don't know nothing. See you nothing. Fourth clue. This player's last name is a color, though his team was more famous for a shade.

Tim Brown? That's correct. Two points. There you go. Thank you. Did not know you won the Heisman? That's crazy. Damn, I got that one fast. That is seven points for Tom. Sorry. No. That's incorrect.

That's incorrect. Can you get something right? Lucas was the one at five. That means it's six points for Tom. Wait, did you get that on the second clue or the... Oh, my God. You got that on the fourth clue. So five for Tom, five for Lucas.

One for the chat. Zero for Ryan. I'm just getting blue balls in this game like the whole time. Okay. Okay. Last, this is the last question. and it'll shock you to believe that there are double points. There are double points.

So Ryan, Ryan asked to get this by the third clue to be able to win. We love it. So if Ryan gets this on clue three, he wins. If the chat gets this on clue three, they also potentially win. Or if neither of them get it by clue three,

it's just whichever one of Thomas or Lucas gets it, period. Okay, I would consider this the hardest player to get. Of course. But depending on your knowledge of certain issues, maybe it's not. This player was drafted third overall out of the University of Georgia. Third overall, University of Georgia. The bulldog. I want to know what the certain issues are.

Is it Herschel Walker? It is not Herschel Walker. Okay, I'll pass now. That would be a certain issue, I guess, yeah. Yeah. I'll pass. That is a certain issue. Not that issue.

Not that serious of an issue. Okay. This player's first name denotes a piece of military technology. Or sorry, terminology. Military terminology. Hmm. Out of Georgia. The word overall out of Georgia denotes an item of military terminology.

And they had a thousand scrimmage yards. At age 29 or later. That's correct. Georgia, Georgia. that is a damn good that is a damn good one brother I'm trying to think of any backs out of Georgia from that time

period what is common like military terminology that could also be someone's name this is more the angle I'm trying to like I he does this bro he does he does this bro

no we're good I would say this is a I'd say if you played sieve um oh I have played a lot Siv. Five, four, it's not

Kammakers this time. I'm still not going to get it. One. No. This player's third clue. Ryan has to get it on this clip. It's a win. This player's two most productive

rushing seasons came on either side of two years of no football, do it extremely major ankle injury. So he had his second most productive season, missed two years, and then he had his most productive season. I might be worried about Siv. I'm going to be totally honest. Oh, my. He has the only thing that can save me right now.

Turn from Sibb is his name. He was third overall pick, played at Georgia, had a thousand yards after 29, and he had two massive seasons with a two-year injury in between. You're absolutely diabolical, mate. You're diabolical with this. I like heard that at an Australian accent,

even though you didn't say it. You absolutely da vocal night. Oh, my God. That one's for you, Tom Lee. I got nothing. I got a Georgia picked that high. Come on, Ryan. Got a guess.

We got a guess. I can't. You got to throw just any name out at this point to have a chance. I like Brian Ford's guest in the chat, Colonel Sanders. Derek, you be quiet. You'd be quiet, Derek. All right. Okay.

This player's ankle injury came on the back of him being named to the first cover athlete of a Madden game, thus spawning the term, the Madden curse. The first ever cover of Madden? Oh, I get to Google now because I'm out. Sweet. The first ever cover of Madden has got to be, oh, I'm trying to think. You said out of Georgia.

If they don't get it after the fifth clue, I will let you guess. I'll let you come on to guess, Tray. First ever cover of Madden, Madden Curse. That's not, that's not Eddie George, is it? It is not, although pretty darn close. Oh. I think he was like the next year or close to it.

Eddie George is what Google says, and I got really confused about how that was a military. military term. Okay. Okay. Yeah, I said, David, I went Eddie George as well. That's got to be a pass. I'm not wrong. I mean, I'm definitely not wrong with this guy was the Madden cover and spawned the Madden curse term.

If Eddie George was on a cover the year before him, I'm willing to concede that's possible. Okay. Let's go. Next. Lucas doesn't know it. That's possible. Okay.

This player played for four NFL teams, but his most productive and memorable years came on the San Francisco 49ers from 1997 through 2003. Oh my God. Garrison Hearst? That's correct. Garrison Hearst.

Fuck it, baby! Yes! Yes! Vic Sweet, sensual victory. I would like to protest that I had the guess. Well, I didn't know it, so it's fine. But still, I had. had the guess. Yes, baby.

Look at that. Garrison Hearst. Did not know he had that many significant ankle injuries. That's crazy what he did in his career. Also did not know he was the first Madden cover. That's insane. Madden 99, Gerson Hurst. Yeah, Google.

And Edie George. And started in 2000, apparently, with John Madden on the cover. And then it was George in 01. So, yeah, you have to very specifically type in Garrison Hearst to get. that to come up. Google's destroyed, man. That's crazy, bro. That's insane.

Winner of the game, I'm never going to let you forget it. What is the military term? That's something I've tried to do. A garrison. It's a garrison. Garrison. See, now,

Lucas is trying to hide some things now and play dumb here. If you pick oligarchy, which is the second tenant, I believe, in tradition in Siv 5, you don't have to pay upkeep costs. on any unit garrisoned in a city. Got it. Got it.

I love the show so much. Final break when we come back. We have one Discord question that was asked today that I absolutely am in love with. And we are going to take our shot and answering it. So sit tight. Last break. And we get out of here. Ella McKay coming to Theaters December 12th.

Your father's here. Why? A heartwarming new comedy from James L. Brooks. a different person. I have never in my life felt this way about any other woman. Jesus! I wasn't counting your mother! It's a perfect holiday comedy about an imperfect family. You can

use a screen, Ella. Storing Emma Mackey, Jamie Lee Curtis, Camel Nanjani, Iowa Devery with Albert Brooks and Woody Harrelson. You should do that every afternoon. Ella McKay. Okay, big question here. This is another strategy-based question

from Hambus CA. He asked, would love to hear a discussion on the value of a player depending on the competitiveness of your team. For example, Derek Henry has a different value for a rebuilding team versus a contending team. Keenan Allen is another example. Most rankings don't slash can't provide that in a context. This is a very real problem where you take a look at the market and the market tells you you should be able to acquire a place. for this and you head over to your league and you offer somebody a late second for Derek Henry and they go, I can't sell him for that.

He's going to be too productive. I need more than that. And you're trying to require, don't want to do that. You go, yeah, but the market says this. And the guy goes, yeah, well, fuck your market. How about that? Your market doesn't matter. How do we approach this?

What's the difference maker and at what point are you willing to pay more? How do you approach this? First of all, shout out Jake. Fuck yeah, Celtics and four. Let's go. enough with this enough with the Celtics talk fantasy football baby let's talk about this how do you how do you fully decide what you are and are not going to pay for a vet because it can't be confusing like he mentions ranks and stuff don't cover this is a very nuanced type

conversation so let Jacob let's let's start to unpack this I'm going to give you my answer and then I've got to run but but make sure everybody stick around to hear Lucas and Lions take on this too. And Tom's. For me, it's just about what is the value of this player on the specific team. So I actually was in a trade discussion with someone. I think Spence was in the chat earlier today. I was in a discussion with him on one of my teams where he was trying to offer me a group of

kind of these veteran players. And he was like, I'm giving you a win based on your dynasty rankings, which by the way, really annoying when I'm in a trade negotiation. And someone's like, why are you? asking for better value than what you list in your own rankings. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, really, it's, it's, it's, I'm, um, and I'm very strong. It's, like, I'm, like, breast hall and jimier gives and, like, nausey and commas, and commas, and

Camara and more than I need. So from my perspective, it's like if I'm adding anything with my picks, like it's probably got to be either a quarterback or maybe an impact wide receiver. So for me on that team, it's like if you want to trade me in this case, it was like Moester and Jalen Warren. In this question, examples, Derek Henry, higher quality player, but the same thing applies where it's like, Derek Henry, if he's filling a position of need for me, I'll pay what I perceive as his value, which I don't know offhand. I think I have him ranked as a mid two.

And I would pay that, you know, maybe even an early two if it was a massive need for me at that running back position. But I better be using up the maximum of his value because his value is purely what he's producing for you this year. So he needs to be replacing a replacement level starter in your lineup or worse for you to pay whatever you think his value is in a vacuum. If you're already strong at his position, if you're already a little bit overweight veterans, period, then I'm only willing to pay what I see is his value on my team. So if he's not replacing a replacement level option, but he's actually now coming in, he's pushing someone else who would otherwise start to the bench, who himself is productive,

then you're not really getting the full value of Derek Henry and you're buying an expiring asset. So in that sense, he's only worth to me more like an early third or mid third on that. team because his whatever you project points over replacement five six seven if my replacement level on my team is already a 14 point per game player not a 12 point per game player an 11 point per game player that has his value to me and his value has to be what it's going to be in production this year because he's a 30 year old running back so that's my answer is look at your team figure out how much of the vacuum value of this player which is their you know productive value of replacement can actually impact your squad.

And if only a fraction of that can impact your squad, they should only be worth a fraction of their value to you in a vacuum. Love that take. Love it. Jacob, I know you got to take off and get out of here. So I'm going to do little sushi things. And we'll see you next week.

I'll see you in a sec. And yeah, if you want, you can just leave my thing like blank so you don't have to ruin the whole. I got you, baby. Don't worry. I got you.

We are professionals sometimes. Have it going. Everybody, congratulations to Tom for the big victory in today's game. Tom won career victory and Derek won career victory now. Is that correct? Yep, yeah, it's true. There we go.

Someone had someone from the show had to get on the board. Great. Yeah, way to go, Buffalo Bills over there. All right, Jacob, we will see you on the next week. Sweet. Thank you very much. Okay, let's finish this thing off. Jacob obviously had a phenomenal statement for this,

but I want to hear if anyone has anything different. Ryan, for yourself, how do you approach this? personally, I personally find running back is the easiest position to do this with. Everything else becomes an absolute nightmare. How would you approach something like this? Yeah, so I would echo everything. Jacob said all of that completely makes sense to me. I want to step back like one step in the process, though, from, I'm, with Jacob's answer,

that's you're in a negotiation. This is how I'm deciding that I value this player for my specific team. I would do that process almost a step earlier and look at the teams in my league and say, okay, where is each of these teams heading kind of broadly? Is this team a rebuilder or is this team a contender? What ought their goals be? And what does that mean in terms of do the players on my roster that I want to sell, do does their entire value apply to this specific team?

And I find that this can save you just a lot of time in terms of negotiating trades rather than you're like mass sending out similar offers or even if you're going to personally curate an offer to if you're trying to sell a guy to every single team. You probably shouldn't waste your time trying to cater an offer to sell Derek Henry to a rebuilder. right that um so just understanding that instead of i'm looking for a specific player that i want to acquire for derrick henry it should be i'm i should have a lot of players i'd be willing to take for derrick henry let me first identify the teams that will be most willing to give me derrick henry's maximum value to them in terms of how much that can apply to their starting line up. So I think it's important to do it kind of beforehand, before you even get into any owner's DMs and understand that certain teams are going to be interested in certain players

that based on like the archetype and the type of asset they are versus other types of players. And what's really fun is when you completely judge another person's team entirely different than they do theirs. And then you start asking for picks. That's how that normally tends to go. Yeah. I mean, nobody wants to be told that their team is ass. Right. Like, nobody wants that.

But I'll say that, well, I'll let Lucas go. Lucas, you go, and then I'll finish this off before we get out. Yeah. I mean, I still want to get, like, I think part of like the crux of the. question is yes, the state of your team greatly changes how you should be valuing these players, especially the Dan Kennerys, the Keenan Allen, looking further down the list, the Chris Godwins this season. I don't know if we want to go as far as DeAndre Hopkins, but those range of players that

whenever you're going for one of the top three picks in the draft, yeah, they're useless to you. And, you know, you're willing to get rid of them for. whatever it takes just so they're not on your team, score your points, and going down in value. But if you are one of those teams, I'm very interested in stalking the rest of my bench with those type of assets that are still looking to score points and are coming a little cheaper. So I agree with how Jacob's looking at it from here's a player who's going to be, I don't know, 14 points per Sorry.

And then yes, you would love for that to be on your roster. But I don't think that the fact that he might not immediately be a star for you or is only maybe a two point per game, better player than who you currently already have in the position. I don't think that should really factor into or prevent you from trying to make that deal if you're going out and trying to acquire them. Sure, you want to maintain future value on your team because the whole thing with Dynasty, see this is going to be your team next year. So yes, it's awesome to be able to win this season, but you still have to maintain that going forward.

So you've got to be a little careful with that. But I think the crux of it, Hall, is, yes, we're going to look at these differently. Be looking at how they will be impacting your team. You shouldn't just be adding assets, willy-nilly have a plan with that and then go out and execute. I want to point out that you should. only be attacking teams that would be looking to make these moves. Otherwise, you're just chasing

a player to chase it. And a lot of times managers know this. There are times where there is a contender who will have a player, say, like Derek Henry, using the example that was given, and they are okay moving them. But they're going to absolutely want their max value because they're not incentivized to move them. Try to make offers for players that make sense for both. sides. You will get more deals done that way. Do not look at it and say, well, my favorite dynasty analyst told me that I need to go and acquire this player now because the title of the video said, acquire this player to win your league. However, if you're going out there to acquire that player to win your league and it's going to now cost you significantly more

than what you should be paying, just because someone had suggested it, it kind of defeats the purpose on buying low on these veterans. You want to be buying low on these veterans. If you are in a bunch of leagues, this becomes a lot easier because we talk about portfolio management quite a bit. It is a lot easier to just say, well, I'll take 10% of this veteran, and then I'll protect myself and I'll go 12% from this one, and I'll target like 8% of that one makes it a lot easier. But if you're in only a handful of leagues and you want to have maintained success, we've already said many times that there's no such thing as going all in. And I cannot wait to break out the data and study that I am putting together for this. But you don't want to be

lobbed into that. Now, one thing Derek Brown in the chat had mentioned is, well, you're not taking injuries into account. Well, that is where you're just understanding that for the most part, we use this term a lot, that players just got to be okay. dying on your roster. Right now, selling Devante Adams is a nightmare scenario. If you're a mid-tier team or you're a contending team selling Devante Adams right now, you're not going to

get in draft pick value what his production tells you you should get. You get 140 targets this year. Yes, his production might dip overall, but the dude is still going to get 145, 150 targets. Getting that for like a mid to late second is not going to happen.

So teams are not incentivized to move that player. However, there are some guys like Christian Kirk who seem to be just forever attainable on a contender, a mid-tier team, a tweener, or a rebuilder. They are always available. And you might have to pay that little bit more or even the same amount to get somewhat replaceable production.

For me, this is where war really comes into effect. This is something that I look at a lot, value like production over one another. So there's a couple of different ways to go there, but for the most part, just target trades that make sense. Don't fear injuries. You have to be willing to accept that those might happen. And generally speaking, the grosser and cheaper the player,

the happier I am to acquire to fill in these gaps, especially in June. Right? In June, these are the riskiest players to go and acquire, but this is generally when they are the cheapest. So you're taking on a lot of risk with it. But that's generally how it is. You'll find the difference between,

teams that are actually in a position to move the players you want to the ones that aren't will make it a lot easier to go off of rankings um aggregating value sites etc and be able to help you piece uh that puzzle together a little bit earlier that's the program i will throw in there just real quick if you are in the mode of trying to acquire players like this getting these players as i they throw in to a slightly larger deal does seem to make things a little bit easier. It's really tough to swallow knowing that you're trading away a player who's going to produce, but you can't predict when his last season's going to be that he's going to be producing. It could be this year, it could be next year. But regardless, you don't want them. It's really tough to swallow moving them for what's projected to be a mid to late second, like what you were saying with Devante Adams.

It's also very weird, even though I absolutely love Keon Coleman. that Keon Coleman's going one spot behind him in ADP, and that just seems wrong. So do look to try to incorporate them into a little bit bigger deal as a throw-in. Maybe replace where you were going to ask for a third-round pick and one of these with one of these players. That does make it easier for managers to swallow. As somebody who's always rebuilding, that is why I've learned.

That's whenever I feel more comfortable moving those players. Lucas, forever rebuilding. I think you're right. Like, well, I'll, yeah, if you throw in this player, I'll send you back a third. And now you're ending up paying, you know, relatively cheaper like we mentioned. That's a very great point.

Phenomenal program, we don't do a lot of strategy-based things, but I'm glad that we did today. Obviously, if you want more, look, we make the content that we get asked for because we are about our subscribers. So hit the subscribe button if you're watching on X. Head over to the YouTube channel,

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If you want to see another video, guess what? I've already got one set up for you in the description. Just click on that. Leave a comment. Let us know what you guys want more. Remember, my family lives on Tim Horton's Timbitts and Coffee. And without your likes and subscribes and your comments, my family will not get our donut holes.

and that, to me, is what is important here. On top of making content for all of you, of course. Remember that Dynasty is supposed to be fun. This is a fun game. If you're finding yourself getting just so burnt out, take a step back. Take a little bit of step back. And don't be afraid to make those trades, everybody.

And of course, hop in the Discord. Let us know what trades are getting done. Remember that clear hands and full hearts can never lose your best days. Well, goddamn. They're always spent tilting. Good night, everybody. What? Why are you shaking your head?

You're welcome.