Fantasy Football Daily - Must Have Top 10 College Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - Pt. 2

Episode Date: April 23, 2024

On this episode of CFF All Access, the guys deep dive into the rest of their top 10 College Fantasy Football Quarterbacks for 2024. Garrett Greene led owners to College Fantasy Football championships in 2023 with his incredible playoff run, but is he worth drafting as a top-10 Quarterback this year? Avery Johnson is one of the biggest boom or bust candidates in 2024. What are the chances he doesn’t live up to the hype? Speaking of busts, KJ Jefferson had a rough 2023 so why are we high on him now? Enjoy this livestream and take your game to the next level with CFF All Access. Make sure to follow us for more valuable college fantasy football content! Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us:   / cffguys     / cffroton     / mbainbridgecff   FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter -   / fantasypts   Facebook -   / fantasypts   Instagram -   / fantasypts   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When you're flying Emirates business class, sipping your favorite cocktail at our onboard lounge, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates, fly better. This is CFF All Access, the College Fantasy Football Podcast at Fantasy Points. We are excited to be with you guys today. I got Zach Hall and Mike Bainbridge with me. Mike is back after missing for a couple weeks. You guys had a bachelor party over there, didn't you, Mike?

Yeah, my traveling adventure. are done for just a little bit here until the honeymoon in in July. So ready to talk college fantasy football and I'll be here with you guys for a few weeks now before the wedding. It's going to be good to have you. Zach, back as always. Great to have you. How are you doing, man? I'm doing good. I'm excited to jump in tonight. It's be a good show. Yeah, it's going to be a good show. Hey, last week we went through our first five of our top 10 quarterback. So we decided we're to do our last five this show. And we also have a little bit of a bonus for you. Mike has a quarterback that's outside of this consensus top 10 that we wanted to share with you guys. So

Mike's going to be bringing that tonight. We will bury the lead on that and not give you that quarterback's name right now. So we'll have that later. And then we're going to be answering any kind of questions in between all that. And it's going to be a good show, fun show. So if you have any questions about quarterbacks, put them in their comments and then we'll get to them throughout the show. All right. Well, let's get into this. We have our first of our last five quarterbacks coming up. We will put up the graphic right now of the first of the top 10 quarterbacks that we have. Thomas, if you want to put that up.

We have been going through these. Our first five were Caden Salter, we had Byron Brown, Dillon Gabriel, and then we had Jordan McLeod. And then we finished off with Jackson Dart last week. This week, we are going to get into the guy who has the easiest name to say in all the college football. Nico, I am Aleva. I've heard that pronounce about five different ways. I'm not sure which one's the right one,

but that's the way that I pronounce it. And so I'm going to pass this off to you, Zach, because you are running the ship on Nico this week. Yeah. Yeah, so I'm just going to call him Nico. I'm not even going to try and butcher that last name. So Nico, he's an interesting quarterback for us. He's 6'6, 210 pounds, so good size there.

But we have really limited action with him last. year. Only played in five games total last year through for 314 yards, two touchdowns, ran for 71 yards there and three touchdowns. He like I said, limited action, but if you watch the bowl games, I'm not huge on using bowl games to project into the next year, but I think we got to see a little bit of how they want to use Nico this year in the bowl game versus Iowa, which saw the defense last year. He went 12 for 19 for 151 passing yards at a touchdown. And then he had 15 rushing attempt for only 27 records,

but he had three touchdowns. So overall, pretty solid performance for him coming into this year, looking at his play caller, Josh Heipel. If you watched last week, talked a little bit about Dylan Gabriel. And Dylan Gabriel actually was under Heipel for a couple of years. over at UCF, Hypo is a guy that really produces pretty solid quarterbacks for us. The last seven seasons,

his QB1 has at least been in top 32, and actually the worst was last year with Joe Milton at QB 32, but we've seen QB7, QB14, QB20, so really get a lot of value out of his quarterbacks. They average 3,200 passing yards, 29 passing touchdown, so really good volume coming out of the passing game. and then he uses the quarterback in the run game, which I think we've seen that in the past with Dylan Gabriel, McKenzie Milton at UCF, Hendon Hooker. He used him in the run game as well. I mean, we saw Hendon Hooker run for 620 yards in 2021, five touchdowns.

So there can be a lot of value in the system, especially when he's running that quarterback, which for Nico this come year, we have them projected to do a little bit over 3,000 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, which is a little bit under that eight-year average for Hypo. So a little bit conservative there for us. And then rushing for 325 yards and five touchdowns there as well. So that's where that projection ends up for him. Some players that he has coming back, Squirrel White, which is a guy that I actually really like his value.

I know this isn't a receiver show, but he's got good value in drafts right now. Brew McCoy, if he can stay healthy, we have Dylan Samson at running back, three offensive line starters as well. So this offense, it's a good offense. The one thing, though, that really stuck out to me, and I think is really going to determine Nico's value outside of,

you know, if they're going to use him in that run game. But when you look back at Josh Heipel and his quarterbacks that were top 10, top 15 QB, they were scoring 42 points a game in that offense. Last year, we only saw them score 31.8 points per game. So it's really, when I'm looking at this, are we going to see that Tennessee offense get closer to that 42? That's a big jump from what we saw last year.

So to me, that's really going to determine where he's going to fall. Potential is definitely there. him. You know, he had a lot of hype coming out of high school. I think the coaching staff really likes Nico and what he can do, his skill set. But again, it's really going to come down to if this offense is going to be able to score like they had in the past. And they're going to have to outperform what they did last year for him to come close to this number six ranking. I think we had them projected number nine projection-wise. So I think there was a question last week actually about Nico in the chat asking.

I think they were like, why is Nico up there? Is this a projection or is this based on projection? And it definitely is looking at the system what a dual threat quarterback, a guy that they're going to use in the run game has done in that system. But I would say the confidence is pretty low. It's at a 56 in our confidence rating. And it just, to me, it feels like this is definitely a potential ranking here. You know, he has a potential to do it, but maybe, you know, if you're more of a cautious drafter

or, you know, he might not be the guy for you. There might be some better options. I think he's the only guy in the top 10, maybe outside of Avery Johnson, where we just, it's limited action, right? I think we got a couple games with Avery Johnson last year, but Niko's just, we just haven't seen it. So, yeah, it is a prediction. But I'm a question to you guys, you know, do you have faith that this offense can see

that jump from 32 points a game closer to that 42 and see that value with Nico. Zach, I was going to say, what is it just the inexperience that's built into that 56% confidence rating? Yeah, so it's, there's a lot of things that's in there. It's going to be the player experience. It takes into account play caller history. So all of that Josh Hyple stuff gets built into their depth chart confidence. injury history, but really the thing that's going to knock him is just one year in the system right now with very limited experience.

And that's kind of what knocks him back. Yeah, because I was going to say, I was surprised by that because if you have a confidence rating for a Josh Hypo off, like a quarterback in a Josh Hyple offense, that's going to be above 90%. Right. You went over it. I went even eight years, right? Eight years straight that the Josh Hypole quarterback won is finished inside the top 40. that's pretty high confidence to me. And I would also say with Nico, like I like the way just kind of the situation is set up.

I know it's his first year, you know, inexperienced, but you kind of look at how Tennessee performed, you know, based on reports in the spring. You know, Cam Selden's injured in the backfield. So they really only have Dylan Samson and Nico to run the football legitimately right now. They're very confident in, from what it seems like, the receivers with Chris Rosel. Squirrel White, Brew McCoy, a multitude of options. So I kind of like the way that this is set up for Nico this year with the returning talent on that Tennessee offense. And I kind of like the schedule too.

I noted here the back end of the schedule here in the college fantasy playoffs. You get Georgia in week, what would that be 12, but then you finish up with UTEP and at Vanderbilt. like they're going to steamroll those two teams in the back half of that schedule. So you were really looking at a strong option at quarterback down the stretch. So I'm big on Nico this year for sure. Yeah. And I think what's crazy, right, is you look back at the bowl game against Iowa, very inexperienced. He didn't even really throw the ball well because it's Iowa.

And he still comes away with 30 fantasy points in that game. I mean, it's just crazy. His, you know, his rushing ability gives him a floor, I think. think every week. And then you add in, like you said, Mike, you talked about all those guys in that spring game, you know, Brazil that looked really good in the offense. And then it's a spring game, whatever. But Mike Matthews, true freshman, I think what these guys that they brought in are going to do is just raise the floor of that receiving room because you're still going to have Brue McCoy, Dante Thornton, obviously squirrel and all that. So I really, I think it's, it's wheels up for a guy like

Nika. I mean, the other thing, you have Cam Seldon, who just, got hurt. And if they don't bring in another back here in the portal, which maybe they do. You need Nico. You need Nico to run, right? Right, right. You know, Dylan Simpson's not even that big of a guy, right? So you can see him even getting more carries around the goal line. And he's a smart runner, right? I think in the bowl game, he didn't take a lot of unnecessary hits. You see a Jaden Daniels. I mean, he'll get rocked at times because he's just not getting down. Nico seemed to be smart. He'll get out of bounds, he'll get what he can. And I think as a dual threat, like for those of us that are going to get those type of guys, we have to get guys that aren't going to put themselves in harm's

way. So, yeah, I think Nico, I think we all had them six or five. I don't know. Mike, do you know where you had them in your rankings yet? Closer to nine or 10 right now. Yeah. Okay. But with the potential to move up, obviously. Yep. That's great. All right. Hey, we're going to take a quick break And then we're going to get into the rest of our top 10 QBs. This Giving Tuesday, Cam H is counting on your support. Together, we can forge a better path for mental health by creating a future where Canadians can get the help they need when they need it, no matter who or where they are.

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Garrett Green's from West Virginia. He is 5'11-201. My man's got a baseball background, just fun. Mike, Zach and I all get into the recruiting aspect of this stuff. So we have these random facts just floating through our minds. But Garrett Green, man, he was a great baseball player growing up, great athlete. And that's what he is playing this quarterback position. This last year, he really broke out.

He had 2,400 yards passing. But what made him so great was his 770 yards rushing and 13 TDs on the ground. This is a guy really over the back half of the year, like C.J. Donaldson got hurt. Jeheme White came in, and he started also to run the ball a lot more. And his back half of the season, particularly in the playoffs, CFF playoffs, was unbelievable. I think you had two 40 point games during that stretch. If you had him, you did really well in the playoffs. And then, look, he's got a good team situation.

A lot of his star players are returning. You have Jaden Bray, Mike Bainbridge's boy is added into the mix here. And then you have Neil Brown as a play caller. He's pretty good overall. And Garrett Green has added in kind of his own rushing ability, which is really an anomaly. in Neil Brown's system. He typically has more like straight pocket passers as his guys,

even the guys that have been successful. But Garrett Green's a little bit different. But I think he's done really well in this system. He basically saved Neil Brown's job last year when CJ Donaldson really wasn't doing much. It was Jaheim White and Garrett Green down the stretch. So we're just absolutely killing it. So our projections, we're projecting for 2400 yards passing, 17 TDs. So not much to the air, but again, 711 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground for 29.1 fantasy points per game with, you know, again, a high confidence score here of 80%.

But, you know, with Garrett Green being an outlier in this system, are you guys concerned at all that, you know, Neil Brown comes back in and starts wanting him to pass more, run less, you know, puts his hands back and really limits Garrett Green this year? or do you think he's going to let Garrett Green go and do what he did last year? I would venture to guess that me and Zach had the exact same problem when compiling our projections. For me personally, Garrett Green was one of, if not the most difficult quarterback to project. Simply because of what you said, Josh, his 13 rushing touchdowns last year is an outlier for this system, right? the highest number of touchdowns that a quarterback ran for in and under Neil Brown is six I believe from Patrick Tolls at Kentucky. Remember that name? Yeah.

Back in 2014. So it's like how do you project it, right? Is he just going to replicate kind of what he did last year or is, are we going to see regression? And I think we could all agree that there is a very high potential that we're going to see some regression here. just because of how much of an outlier those 13 rushing touchdowns were from, from Garrett Green. Yeah, what do you think, Zach? Yeah, it's funny, Mike, that you said that.

He was tough. And the big thing for me was when you look at what he did last year, that 13 touchdowns really stick out. And Josh, you mentioned it just at the end of the year and how Jim White really came on. And are they going to be able to rely on him a little bit more and not use Green so much in that run game? I still really like green, but he's a guy. He's one of those guys in the top 10 that we have right now that I could see. By the end of the season, he kind of falls out because of where he's at in the run game, right?

That 13 touchdowns falls off. I mean, he only had 21% of the carries, which is a lot for this system, but 13 touchdowns on only 21% of those carries is quite the load. And I just feel like there's definitely potential for that to run. really drop off. I mean, the system has been not great for QBs. And so I just, this is, this is one of the guys. Actually, there's another guy that's coming up, but one of the guys that I feel like could drop out, but I still really like Gary Green. I've taken him in some drafts. I just, that, again, that dual threat quarterback, it's, it's hard to pass up on those guys,

especially when they're proven like this and they've done it. So, yeah. And he's five foot 11. He's not a big guy, and he's not one that protects himself as well as Nico. Like, I think, I mean, I've seen Garrett Green take some shots. He also has a lot of long runs. I mean, he's a very good athlete. And the problem with long runs is you see guys get injured on these long runs, either tackle from behind, right, and you see ankle injuries on those type of things. And so you've got to be careful with guys like that.

I mean, I really like Garrett Green. I mean, I think his upside is 40 fantasy points a game. And it's just because, you know, again, he throws, you know, how many touchdowns do you have through the air last year? It was a 16. I mean, he's not throwing off. Yeah. So he's not throwing a ton, right?

And so there's just so much that he's doing on the ground. He reminds me a lot of Quentin Flowers back in the day at South Florida, where you just didn't get a lot through the air. But, you know, a guy had like 15 to 20 rushing touchdowns, and that makes all the difference in the world. So, you know, if you're going to draft Gary Green, I mean, we've all been taking them in different places, at least I have. And, you know, but there's an inherent risk to take in a guy like Garrett Green here.

And I think we just all need to be aware of it and needs to be baked into us doing it. The upside is crazy. But, you know, realize there's some downside. I like the surrounding pieces, too. Josh, you mentioned the wide receivers, Jaden Bray, I guess. Maybe he'll break out one of these years. But, you know, Traylon Ray, I, I, I. I was very impressed with Traylon Ray last year.

So he could be potentially wide receiver one there. Cole, Cole Taylor, the tight end. I believe around 30 catches last year. I don't have that offhand. But they bring back most of their wide receiver core. And you guys mentioned three offensive linemen. Two of them are two others that will step into that starting lineup got some rotation snaps last year.

So a lot to like with just. the offense, and you back would, you know, hopefully supports Garrett Green and in his top 10 ranking. Yep. Yep. Totally agree. Hey, if you guys have any questions,

feel free to leave them in the chat, and we'll answer those throughout the show. We are number 8 QB here is Haynes King. And that was Proton's guy. Froton did not win anybody else to give the breakdown because he has the ultimate breakdown for Haynes King. And I'm curious to see what he has to say. Yeah, I was going to say,

Do we know if it's good or bad? Like, is he arguing for or against Haynes King? I don't know that answer. He hasn't said. So we're going to let him break him down the next show. And so we're going to skip him this week. That's part of why we have a little bonus Mike Bainbridge guy here coming up. But our next QB number nine is Shador Sanders.

And Zach, you're going to break him down. Yeah. So we got Shadorar Sanders, quarterback at Colorado, 6-2-215. Last year he threw for 3,200 yards, 27 touchdowns, three interceptions. Wasn't, didn't do anything in the ground game. He did have four rushing touchdowns, but just not a lot there. Wanted to go back just real quick at Jackson State. He, his first year there, he threw for 3,200 yards, and then second year, 3,700 yards.

He had six top two finishes last year, early in the year. He was really strong in the year, fantasy-wise. four games with at least four passing touchdowns. But this is the kicker with him. Over the last six games, he only averaged 20 points per game. So coincides with a few things I think we saw last year. One, Sean Lewis was no longer the O.C, which if you watched our show a few episodes back, we really like Sean Lewis.

We talked about his quarterback. And they just ran into a lot of injuries, some depth issues with that team. And we just kind of saw that that team really run out of gas last year. So that it really fell off towards, towards the end of the year last year. Looking at what he's done or what the system has, Pat Schumer, he's averaged in 3,400 passing yards, 32 touchdowns,

four rushing touchdowns. That's Dion, sorry, that's Deon's those last three years. we have really limited history with these guys in the college ranks and so I don't love Shermer but I think

when we're looking at this Dion's going to want Shador to have a good season right so I don't know if we'll I think they're still going to try and use him he's still going to throw the ball he has Travis Hunter

should be back. He has Lejante Western, Jimmy Horn, Dylan Edwards. They just, I can't remember who it was. You guys might help me. I think they just got a running back in the portal. Dahl and Hayden. Yeah, there you go. They have two offensive line starters coming back. I know they've got some guys in the portal. So they're really trying to build that back up. I think we can all agree we really like the receivers in this, in this offense. So the potential is there. I think, they're going to throw the ball. I wanted to call out the Jackson State. Passing yard is just because Sanders has never thrown under 3,000 yards as a starting quarterback. So they're going to pass the ball, but this is one guy that I think we could see really similar to how last year played out, where

he starts off hot. I mean, you look at the front part of his schedule, North Dakota State, Nebraska, Colorado State, Baylor, UCF, right? It just feels like we could see the same thing we saw last year with him, where he really starts off hot. Travis Hunter is going to be healthy, right? They have some of those other receivers, Western Horn. So I think that offense is really going to be going pretty good. I don't really think their defense is going to see a huge jump in improvement.

So I think this offense is going to have to score. But I think the concern with me here on Sanders is, is just what is that back half of the season going to look like again do they have the depth if they do see some injuries early in the year are are we going to see kind of that 20 points a game that we saw from from Sanders last year kind of come come back in so that for me again I like the weapons in this offense a lot Sanders has talent he's you know he's through he threw for 30 touchdowns 40 touchdowns 27 so I mean It's going to, they're going to throw the ball. But again, just the halvea season ended, I just feel like we could see that same thing happen. Any concerns with you guys? I think for me, he's the one guy in my top 10 as I'm kind of going through my new ranks that he might not be in the top 10 when I get through kind of my post-springs.

Not that he'll be that far out, but he might be a guy that does drop out just because of some of those concerns. You guys have have any thoughts on on what this offense is going to be. Pat Schumer is the O.C. Does he last all season if we don't see see that offense doing what Deon wants? Yeah. So I was sitting with Joe. He's old like college football geek guy from back in the day. Today we had a couple beers and he was down here visiting Austin. We were talking about Colorado and this offense and some of his projections. And it was a great conversation because basically we landed on this with them. Like, look, Pat Schumer may be terrible, but he's a yes man.

He's going to do whatever Sanders wants him to do. And I think Dion, we were both talking about this, he has one mission. And that is to get Shador Sanders to New York and to get a Heisman. And the second person he wants to get there is Travis Hunter. So I could see, I mean, there's so many weapons. in this offense that they're going to throw the ball and even if guys get hurt they're going to have people waiting in the wings to come in and do it i just don't see where they don't throw you know 40 attempts a game um no matter the game and you know i think in six point passing touchdown

leagues which is what these projections are based are these rankings are based off of i think shador is worth you know i think he's worth where we're ranking them but what do you think mike Yeah, Dion has a third goal this season is to get his son healthy through the entire season. And that's, I'm surprised. I did not expect to see you guys have Shudur in the consensus top 10. I probably have him closer to 20, non-factor running the football. He, like, we talked about the changeover to Pat Schumer. I mean, just look at it.

It was a slight decrease in volume, like passing-wise, those. those last four games after Pat Shermer took over. But, I mean, you look at it, 217 pass yards, 245 passing yards, 262, and then 86 in the finale, I believe he got hurt against Washington State. But they, the reason they made that change is because they were throwing the football too much and Shadur was getting injured with, I believe, a back issue. So, like, I expect, I would expect them to pass it more than they do run. It's not going to be a 50-50 balance.

Like, they're going to throw it. it more than they're going to run it. But I would expect it closer to that kind of 50-50 split. And then you combine that with the fact that that he's basically a zero in the running game. Like you are going to have to throw for at least 3,500 passing yards, if not 4,000 and 30 touchdowns to sniff top 10, you know, quarterback ranking. So I was surprised by this. I will give an O2 to Shudur that he increased his fancy point per game average from the first season at Jackson State to the second by eight points.

Maybe we see a jump there in his second season in Colorado. Obviously, you guys have harped on. We love the wide receiving core. But I don't know. He's closer to 20 than he is in the top 10 for me. Zach, you know this. I watch a lot of Michigan basketball. this is Juan Howard vibes all over it of a coach that is in over his head, in my opinion.

And I just, I think this is a program trending downwards. I'm not taking Shadur with a, you know, as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Yeah. I mean, I think to look, if this offensive line isn't rebuilt in any sort of way, then it's going to be a repeat of last year, right? He might start off hot, but he's not going to last the whole year. So, you know, I think all those are really good points. I like that.

We didn't all just go, yes, he's slam dunk top 10. So that's great. Hey, we're going to take a quick break here. And then when we come back, we're going to get through the rest of our top 10, get to Mike's, his secret guy. And then we have a few other things playing for you guys. All right. Our last QB and our top 10 here is Avery Johnson,

which may be a bit of a surprise considering this is six. point passing touchdowns, but Avery Johnson had a crazy athletic profile coming in. He is, you know, maybe the best athlete on the field every time he steps on the field, but he's playing quarterback. Six foot two, 188. Last year, right, he played in eight games. He had 500 and or 479 yards passing, but in that time he had 300 yards rushing in seven touchdowns. And a lot of that was spot, you know, spot duty stuff. Like he wasn't playing, he wasn't starting game, anything like that. So he came in, had a five touchdown game in the middle of the year.

I think that was against Texas Tech or maybe it's Houston. We had a five touchdown game. And he came back and he started the bowl game. And this is really where we saw what Avery Johnson can do. I mean, the guy didn't look great passing the ball, but he threw 178 yards and two TDs. and they came and ran for 71 yards and another touchdown for 30 fantasy points. Again, this guy didn't look great good. He was playing a very good NC State defense, in my opinion, but he still put up 30 fantasy points.

And I think that's where the draw is to a guy like Avery Johnson. He's going to be playing in a system with Chris Climmon as his head coach. This guy comes from North Dakota State. He's been in Kansas State for a few years. He likes to run his quarterbacks. His quarterbacks of the last 10 years have averaged between North Dakota State and Kansas State have averaged 470 yards on the ground and nine touchdowns. So, you know, and I think really for Avery, like, you know, he could, he's easily, in my opinion, going to eclipse 470 yards. And whether he gets doubled to touchdowns or not is probably what determines whether he's in the top 10 quarterbacks or not.

But, I mean, this kid is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands. projected at 2,400 yards passing, 20 touchdowns, and then 550 yards on the ground and 10 touchdowns for 29.4 fantasy points per game. We do have them, again, at a 45% confidence score, a lot of that has to do with it. He's young. He hasn't started a lot of games. There is a new offensive coordinator coming in, but it's a Chris climbing system, so we should know what we got there. But Avery Johnson, I mean, there's a lot to like about him, but there's bust potential. You guys worried at all about him busting and not living up to the potential of a top 10, you know, quarterback this year? Yeah, I think you nailed it. I mean, it's going to come down to

what what he can do in that passing game. When you look at what, uh, climbing has done with his QBs in the run game, um, 10 touchdowns is in the stretch by any means, right? He should get that. Um, I mean, the high side, it's, it's 15 to 17 possibly there. Um, so he's going to get his in, in the run game, but when you look at what quarterbacks have performed well from a fantasy perspective, it's the guys that were able to throw the ball. If they relied mostly just on the rushing piece, I mean, you look at Adrian Martinez in 2022, right? He had 10 rushing touchdowns, but he only averaged 21 points a game that season, just

because the passing game was not there. You know, Will Howard in 2020, which again, COVID year, so it's really tough to gauge. but there just wasn't, you know, through eight touchdowns and 10 intercepts. So it's just, and that quarterback was QB 75. So when you go look through what Climman has done, his best quarterbacks have been the guys that have been able to throw 20 plus touchdowns. And I think it's really going to come down to Avery Johnson's either going to have to

throw 20 touchdowns. And they brought in Matt Well, so maybe that helps their past game a little bit. We'll see. Or he's going to have to be on the high end of that rushing touchdown, right? he's going to have to hit that 17-18 touchdown just to have that value. So I think there is some risk definitely if you're taking him as a top-10 guy. But like Josh said, you love the potential he has in that run game. And back to dual-threat QBs, right?

Those are guys that tend to have really good value as long as he can do it in the past game as well. Josh, did you have a heavy influence on this top 10 ranking for Avery Johnson, I'm guessing? I don't think I was like out of the ordinary on him. I think we're all pretty high on them, to be honest. I wish I wish Eric was here for this episode discussing Avery Johnson because I remember during the bowl game against NC State where he completed 45% of his passes. Right. We did have, I think, oh, was it his, I forget if we had his under or over passing. probably under, but he's texting me the entire game. Ah, this guy can't throw worth it, damn. And I mean, that's kind of the, that's, that's the concern there, right, with Avery Johnson is can he,

can he do get there fantasy-wise with his passing ability? I like the weapons that they have, Jace Brown, Kegan Johnson. They brought in Dante Cephas from Penn State. Here's my concern. We talk about, you know, Avery Johnson, dual threat, tremendous athlete, right? I was reading up and Matt Wells, a new offensive coordinator, I believe it was him. I don't think it was climbing. I was Matt Wells. And he was already talking about how can we preserve Avery Johnson being healthy for the entirety of the season. And here's, you know, just looking at the depth chart, here's the difference for me.

And here's the slight concern about how much they're going to utilize him in the passing game or in the running game. Because if you remember back to that NC State game, they were throwing more than I thought they would with Avery Johnson. He had 30 plus passing attempts. Here's the concern. You look back over the years at Kansas State. You got Will Howard and Skyler Thompson. You got Will Howard and Adrian Martinez. Last year you got Avery Johnson and Will Howard.

I don't believe, unless there's another Ballyhood freshman, I don't believe they have a clear-cut QB2 right now. So I wonder how much, you know, as opposed to your past, So I wonder how much they're going to actually want to put him in harm's way in the running game. But again, to your point, Josh and Zach, like, what is it, four out of the last five years, the quarterbacks run for 100 plus times. So, you know, the trends seem to point that they are going to use him in the running game. But if they're already talking about, you know, how can we preserve his health throughout the entirety of the season,

I don't think we're going to get close to maybe, you know, 140, 150 that we would absolutely love from dual. threat quarterback. Yeah. I mean, if he did hit over 100 rushing attempts, I mean, he's a type of guy that's going to have 600 yards, right? And so we'll see. I mean, last year, as the backup, he had 52. But, you know, I mean, I think Gabriel Johnson definitely, you know, I think in six-point passing touchdown leagues, you have to be more cautious in drafting them for sure. We also, Froton had him at number 11. I think I had him at number nine and Zach had him at 10. So we were all right in there in that range. I mean, he, You know, it was close to him and Jackson Arnold.

But, but so we'll see, we'll see what, ultimately what happens with Avery Johnson. But the upside is like ridiculous, right? I mean, he's got the upside of him is a thousand rushing yards, 15 to 20 touchdowns if they let him lose. And this is a team, I think, that's going to compete for the Big 12 championship with Texas and Oklahoma out. So there's going to be, they're going to want to make some statements, man, and Avery Johnson. is the one that they'll be writing to do that. And hopefully DJ Giddens. DJ Giddens.

But one of the cool things about that game, right, was that DJ Giddens had that, you know, he gave him a little, you know, basically wide receiver or running back screen out of the backfield. And he took it to the house. I mean, his explosiveness does help in this offense too. That's, I mean, yeah, this is not the running back episode, but that's obviously why we like DJ Giddons.

You're kind of similar to Avery Johnson's like, who else is behind them? They really don't have a solidified backup at either position. So all the carries to Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens. Yep. All right. Well, we've been burying the lead the whole episode. But I want to actually now talk about KJ. Jefferson here.

If we want to pull up the graphic, this is Mike Bainbridge's guy. You can talk about him and tell us where, yeah, where you have him ranked and give us all the info you got on him. And then we'll chat about him for a little bit. And then I have one more thing for us to talk about before we get out of here. So I have been drafting KJ Jefferson in like fifth, sixth round and in most of the drafts that I've participated in this offseason. And a lot of why I love KJ Jefferson, well, okay, there's a lot of reasons. One system, Gus Miles on, right? Dual threat quarterbacks in a fast-paced offense always seem to thrive.

And KJ. Jefferson fits that build to a T. we have to get the kind of out of the way here the report did come out that he was arrested on a misdemeanor for reckless driving that happened back in 2023 I was reading up on it I don't think this is going to hamper his availability at all at any point during the season Gus Malzan was aware of this situation prior to them bringing him in via transfer so I I think he should be in good standing for the season. We'll miss any games or anything like that. So in the spring game, Jefferson completed 12 with 22 passes for 271 yards, actually.

So I've really explosive downfield passing in that game. I believe there was a 70-yard pass play to Jared Baker, Gerard Baker. But I really like the receiving core that he's got to throw to with Kobe Hudson, Xavier Townsend. They have a really talented sophomore tight end. Excuse me. And Randy Pittman. They have a Ballyhooed freshman, Brindell Richardson, who's making waves in the spring. So no shortage of weapons there. Three O-Line starters back from 2023. So surrounding pieces should be solid for KJ. Jefferson. I've tempered my expectations a little bit here.

If you kind of look back because of how run heavy this system is, Gus Mousin actually doesn't produce a lot of top 10, top 20 quarterbacks. I believe he's had just one guy finish inside the top 20 in the last decade. I believe that was Nick Marshall back in 2013, 2014. So I was a little bit surprised by that, just given once Gus Malzahn has a dual threat, you would think that these guys are consistently finishing inside the top 10, but it really just hasn't happened. When these dual-threat quarterbacks under Malzahn get 100 plus carries, though,

the floor is ridiculously high, and that's why I like KJ Jefferson this year. the four times that a quarterback under Malzahn has hit 100 plus carries, you get 26 fantasy points per game, 22 fantasy points per game, 25 and 25 again in those four seasons. So I really love the floor here with KJ Jefferson and this fit in this offense. If you look back to, again, this speaks to the floor, the consistency of Gus Malzon, a dual threat quarterback. in the games that John Rice Plumley was healthy last year,

you're looking at 44, 18, 28, 39, 37, 24, and 28. You will take those numbers all day from your, like, QB1, QB2. So I've tempered my expectations a little bit here on KJ Jefferson. I kind of like them better in that round six, round seven range, just because of how, you know, you're not seeing that high upside with the Gus Meals. on quarterback, but I really do from just a dual threat standpoint, I think that he just has, I considered him the safest quarterback in college fans this year. Like, again, not the upside, right, of a cadence alter and Dylan Gabriel and such as

that, but like, just from a floor standpoint, I, tell me, tell me a scenario where KJ. Jefferson bust outside of injury. Right. Right. And, I mean, to your point, you know, look, RJ Harvey is what, 205 pounds, Miles Montgomery, 200 pounds, you have Demarcus Bowman, 200 pounds. KJ. Jefferson's 245 pounds. This is your goal line package running back, right? I mean, we saw Isaiah Bowser a couple years ago, awful running back. get what 15 plus touchdowns a lot of them around the goal line and that was with john rice plumley but they didn't want to they didn't want to run john rice around because he's not as big right and

but kj jefferson is your goal on running back to my and my mind what do you guys think about that that yeah that's a good call because one reason why i'm lower on rj harvey this year and i think we talked about it a little on one of the episodes is k j jefferson is probably going to to falter some of those goal line touchdowns. And Harvey, one of the reasons why he was so valuable last year was, I believe, because of what he did touchdown-wise. And I do think KJ. Jefferson is definitely going to have a lot of value around the goal line. That's one reason why I do like him. Mike brought up some really good points about the QB for Gus Malz-on, because I think you just automatically assume it's just going to be this.

you know, this guy that's going to get you 30 points a game, but it's actually been pretty tough for his quarterbacks to get there. But I like KJ Jefferson. I also one thing I like, too, is his schedule, especially to start the year. I think it's really going to get him going in that system. It's not too tough. I mean, he has, I think this is New Hampshire, Sam Houston, TCU, and then Colorado. So his first four games, I mean, it really eases him into,

this system, the season, and I think he could put up some big numbers and carry that momentum into conference play. So I'm with Mike. I don't, he's not quite in my top 10. I need to go look where he is, but I think I like KJ Jefferson this year and what what he can do in that offense. The issue is because of how run heavy UCF can be. He has to hit at least 10 rushing touchdowns the finish top 10. Like that you just, he has to do it. So there's no path for him getting,

you know, in this system, there's no path to him getting hit hitting top 10 quarterbacks if he doesn't get 10 rushing touchdowns in my opinion. So that's, he's again, just outside the top 10 for me. But again,

I just, I think the floor and just kind of, you know, there's limited bus factor with KJJM this year, in my opinion. Yeah. I think to your touchdown point, looking at like the last eight years with Gus, they average almost 30 touchdowns rushing a game.

And they're only throwing 20, which obviously affects KJ. Jefferson. But looking at that almost 30 rushing touchdowns, you know, I mean, back to your point, I think he's going to be a guy that they really use. So that that opportunity is going to be there for him to get there. Yeah, that's good. Hey, I want to take a quick break here in a minute. When we come back, what I want to look at is who's going to. top 10 QBs and ADP versus what our top 10 rankings look like.

And then let's have a little bit of a conversation about that to wrap things up here. So we're going to take a break. We'll be right back. All right. Hey, Thomas, would you mind throwing up our top 10 QB graphic again for me? And so we can throw that up so everybody can see that while we talk through this. So top 10 ADP players right now,

you have pretty much the same as our top 10 QBs. We got Caden Salter, Byron Brown, Dylan Gabriel, Jordan McLeod. This is a pretty chalky, right? Those are going to be your top four almost in any draft right now. I mean, maybe that changes over time. And then from there, we have Jackson Dart next. But top five, ADP is actually Shador Sanders. And then number six is Nico.

Number seven for ADP is Jalen Milrow. Number eight is Haynes King. Number nine is Cameron Jones. and number 10 is Garrett Green. So the two guys that were higher on than ADP are Jackson Dart and then Avery Johnson, right? Avery Johnson's, he's going right in that. I guess it depends on what you're in. Seventh, eighth round.

Yeah. Well, and a lot of these like carp's best balls, he's going like sixth round, fifth round. I can't get him in the seventh anymore. But that's higher than any of us are paying for him at this point. So, but Jackson Dart is the one here that for us, we're really high on Jackson Dart. I don't know where you have a mic. And then, and he's creeping up ADP over time. But he's not even in the top 10 ADP right now.

Who's right? Are the drafters right or are we right? Of course we're right. I'm with you guys. You know, I missed last week. But, you know, Josh, we've been talking kind of offline. and just the way that Ole Miss is shaping up this year. And, you know, I was kind of readjusting my projections for them this year.

That, adding Henry Parrish now to that backfield, it is full-blown committee. There is not a bell cow there. And I think that bodes well for the passing game where they have every weapon under the sun, right? With the Antoine Wells, Trey Harris, the tight ends. They got two tight ends, really talented, Kate and pre-scorn. And then the transfer from Virginia Tech. Dayquot right, just weapons everywhere. So you have a dual quarterback in Jackson Dart.

So of course we're right with that one. Jackson Dart is a top 10 quarterback, maybe top five. Yeah. Yeah. What do you think, Zach? Yeah, no, he's, so I don't think I've gotten Jackson Dart in a draft yet, which is crazy because of where I have him ranked. But if you've looked at my drafts, I've been going QB early,

which I'm not looking for a QB when I would probably take him. But he's a guy that I definitely like if I kind of wait on QB. And if I don't take a QB in those first few rounds, I really like where you can get Dart. I mean, his value is just so good to me. He was, I think when we pulled the latest ADP, he was one of the guys that was trending up and we are seeing him. But I really, I'm surprised at where he is still

and where he's going in some of these drafts. So, yeah, he's, I mean, he's such a good value right now. Yeah. Mike, I thought you said it so beautifully. It's like, hey, look, they just got, you know, Merritt at Kroski Merit out of the portal. They got Parrish. Like, this is RBBC. It screams that, right?

All these guys can, or at least most of them can catch balls out of the backfield. I mean, everything's setting up for Jackson Dart to just absolutely smash this year. if Anton Wells can stay healthy, and that wide receiver court is going to be unbelievable. He's a guy for me even. Like, I've drafted him a decent amount, but it's like, yeah, I need to be drafting him more. I mean, I'm starting to get to the place where, man,

I'm just going to take Jackson, Dart, and Nico in the fifth, sixth round every time and just let it ride because those guys are just such great value there. My question for you guys with Jackson Dart, I mean, how close is it with Jordan McLeod for you guys at this point? For me, it would be how close is it to Dylan Gabriel? I'm one of those that has Jordan McLeod over Dylan Gabriel. Just because I like the upside far more with Texas State than I do with Oregon moving to the big tenant of far tougher schedule, in my opinion. But so, yeah, like to me, Dart is.

I don't know where my projection hasn't, but like the four or five spot, I believe for me is Gabriel and Dart. And, you know, I prefer Dart personally because I like the just the situationally better, you know, and then the schedule, obviously. I'm not, I haven't drafted Dylan Gabriel in that first and second rounds personally. I know Zach got him in a recent draft in the third round where you would, that's obviously more comfortable. but I don't know. I can't, and I told Josh this like, Dylan Gabriel from Hawaii, like good luck going to Ann Arbor in November

against the top two defense in the country. And then I think either, you know, what is it, a week earlier or a week later, they got to go to Madison. Like, I just don't, I don't see the upside there. For, for, or I don't see him, you know, producing those 30 to 40 fantasy point games in, in the elements that maybe a McClellan.

can in Sunbelt conference. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, for me, because right now I have Gabriel 3, McLeod for Dart 5. I wouldn't say it's super close. And part of the reason for that for me is just McLeod and just some of those defenses that he's going to play this year. I just feel like there's a ton of upside.

We saw what he did against Sunbelt last year. I think the system's going to be really good. he's got some good receivers but I think it's probably as we get closer to the season it's getting closer I would say when McLeod first transferred there it probably wasn't as close as where I am now but you know to me though

I've kind of I initially had the top three QBs kind of in tier one and I've moved McLeod and they're in darts right there with them I think and then there's there's a pretty big gap I think between that next tier, but I think DART belongs in tier one and not that tier two. So I guess basically what we're all saying is like

the value you get for him, right? The fifth, six, seventh round, which I've seen DART fall six, seventh quite a bit. Like he's going after Nico and, you know, a lot of these drafts. So it's like, yeah, I'm going to take that value. That's a really good value on Jackson DART. and so he shouldn't be there. Okay, so another quarterback I want to talk about here is Jalen Milrow is at 7.

He's not in our consensus rankings. I don't even know. We didn't even have them in our top 14 consensus-wise. I have him at 17. Zach, you had them. I'm not even sure where you have him. Oh, no, at 14. So, you know, he was right there on the edge for us, right?

Basically in number 15. What do you, I mean, you know, Jalen Millrow, should he be higher for us? Well, I'm, so I was going to ask you kind of the same question because he just went, what, third or fourth round in a, and one of our best balls that we're doing right now. Am I missing something? Because I'm where you guys are at. I have them at 14. So are people just so excited about the spring game where he completed three of nine passes that he's just going to. to be a top 10 quarterback. That's where I'm at. I struggled with his projection. I think,

Zach, you're the same. I just, I don't know. I don't see that one. Yeah, let me ask you guys this question. Elijah Badger comes in there. Does that change things for you? Or is Melrode just not a good enough passer to warrant a top 10? Boy, you stumped us on that. I don't. Yeah. That doesn't change much for me if Badger gets in there. Because I think we know what we get with Milro at this point. I feel like in, yeah, you know, like where I have him at 14, I don't, I don't think that's probably going to change much. You know, he's, if he continues to go on the third round in these drafts, that's, that's way,

that's way too high for me. I won't have any of him. You know, the offense, we've seen QB success there, but. It's really those guys that can throw the ball well, you know, in that offense. So again, he's going to, they can use him in the run game. It'll be interesting to see how they kind of tailor that offense to him this coming year and how they use him. Because if they don't want to use him in the run game a whole lot like we've seen in the past, then I think that value drops even more with him there.

So he's kind of one of those, again, have them in the mid-teens. And that's probably, that to me, feels like sealing. with where I'm viewing him right now. Because his, he was not going in the fourth round early, early in our drafts, right? That's just kind of flipped recently, right? So I'm wondering, I don't understand where, was it just the spring game performance? Was it, I mean, he had positive reports all throughout camp, I believe, but I don't see what's changed drastically that he's jumping two, three rounds into a top five, six quarterback.

Yeah, I mean, the only thing I can think is Elijah Badger. I mean, Jeremy Bernard looked good. But like, look, look. Kendrick Law and Kobe Prentice did not, they weren't blowing me away. I mean, the other wide receivers, like, against SEC defenses and secondaries, like, they're not going to get crazy separation. And if they can't get separation, I mean, obviously, Kailen DeBore can scheme whatever. But, like, you know, if it's just Jeremy Bernard, I mean, I'm concerned because.

And look, like, I think DeBoers, he's a legitimate offensive genius. He will adjust his system to his players, in my opinion. And look, Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, if Justin's Haynes can stay healthy, are the two best players, in my opinion, on that offense. And so maybe they go run heavy here, and that does not bode well for Jalen Monroe. I don't know. Here's what you do with Milro this year, right? You draft him, and he has Western Kentucky and,

South Florida, the first two weeks, he's going to be right up there, right? And then you trade him. You trade him away when he runs into Wisconsin. He's got Georgia, you know, South Carolina, Tennessee. Like, it gets a little bit tougher, but you can ride that two game, start to the season where he's probably going to put up some points and then get something, get something good back for him. So what you just told me, Zach, is that people are going to, like, timestamp this podcast

after the first week. And when he lights it up against Western Kentucky, they're like, I told you so. Man, you're, I mean, Zach's right though. Like right after that two games stretch, it's at Wisconsin, bi-week, and then Georgia.

Are you starting them in either of those two games? And then obviously the buy sandwich in between that. So get it while it's good at the start of the season with Mill Road. Yeah. Redraft strategy right there. That's great. All right. Well,

that's going to wrap up our show. That was a fun conversation at the end. fun getting to talk with you guys about our top 10 QBs and finish that list today. And they get a little bonus with KJ. Jefferson. That was a lot of fun. Maybe we'll have all four of us next week. That would be crazy.

The first episode. Yes. Yes. And we get to talk about Haynes King. There is Eric Proton back. He is, our boy is at the draft doing draft content all this week. So we wish him well. But we'll be excited to have Froton our missing companion back

and have the fearsome four back doing it up. So, hey, with that, we've come to end of our show. Thank you guys for listening. We love your continued to support by liking, commenting, subscribing on all of our stuff. We want to interact with you guys both here in the show and outside of that as well. We will see you guys back here next Monday at 9 p.m. Eastern time. Until then, do small things with great love.