Fantasy Football Daily - Navigating the Week 18 Slopfest | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: January 2, 2025

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's a 2024 NFL season, T-Bro, but as I'm looking here on my non-existent watch, I think it says 2025 because we are in the new year. Happy New Year to everybody. I hope you've been enjoying. Tom and I decided to record this a little bit earlier than we planned on because we were recording it at halftime of the Rose Bowl. And yeah, that game is complete crap. At least as of right now, Tom.

Yeah, who knows? We don't want to be written into history. you know, the old, the cold takes exposed here, but it's looking like it's going to be a one-sided affair the rest of the way. But we'll see how this second half plays out. Well, so let's talk Week 18 NFL best bets. First of all, my bet last week. I mean, Tom, you and I were both on the Panthers. I had them in a teaser. You had them not straight up, but you had them as eight-point underdogs.

And then after we recorded the podcast, the Panthers essentially went into the tank. Chuba Hubbard goes on Iowa. are Josie Jewell and and Jaycey Horn. Yep. Get ruled out. And we're just like, oh, geez, the Panthers are taking whatever positive momentum that they've gotten out of Bryce Young, they kind of wanted to bottle that and carry it into the offseason and not have to deal with a long-term injury for a Chuba Hubbard.

But that does highlight some of the difficulties and some of the problems with betting these late season games, you know, when teams aren't 100 percent. incentivized to go for it. Even a guy like Sequin Barclay who has fully admitted, he's conflicted about the fact that the Eagles are going to rest him in week 18 when he has a shot at the NFL rushing record. You know, these guys just aren't incentivized and maybe they try to do a half measure, you know, like the bills might be playing Josh Allen a few series or something like that.

It really makes this a difficult scenario, not unlike preseason. Tom, I know you're not necessarily a preseason betting sicko, but I have to. have to imagine that from my perspective, there's a lot of similarities here between preseason NFL betting and week 18 NFL betting. Yeah, this is the week that is more information driven than any other week. Most weeks you can really go by the numbers and projections. Yeah, that's right. But this week, it's all about staying on top of the information and just knowing scenarios and what the motivations for each team are, what motivations that. There are for incentives and milestones for players as well.

So those are all things to keep in mind this week. So, yeah, this is one. And you'll notice the books are well aware of this, too. We're recording this Wednesday night. They have basically player props for three games, the two Saturday games and the Sunday night game between the Vikings and Lions. So books are also wading into these waters very gently, right now. So you make sure you're on top of information. Double check. If you're going to

make a wager this weekend, you might want to just, hey, do a little Google news search, see if there's any information about a player you're betting on or, you know, Google the coach or, you know, whatever you need to get for information to make sure you're not, you know, stepping into a little landmine with a wager this weekend. So Tom, I think what it comes down to is just how few teams are fully incentivized to try to win. And so that doesn't include, now, usually in week 18, teams that have been eliminated, especially teams with like a young quarterback, those teams, you know, try to get the reps in. But there are very few teams who are fully incentivized to win. Baltimore, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh on Saturday, fully incentivized to win.

But then I go to Atlanta, Green Bay is fully incentivized to win, Tampa Bay, Washington, Denver. The Chargers might not. Now, the Chargers is a weird one. That one, if they might be locked into what, the six seed? Yeah, the Steelers, whatever they do on Saturday, you know, they're playing the Saturday game against the Bengals. So if the Steelers end up winning, they're going to be locked into, and this all depends on what the Ravens do with their 17.5 point favorites. I think we're all kind of assuming that the Ravens will win that game.

So if the Steelers win, they would be locked into the fifth seed. Chargers couldn't move up. And that is a key spot. You want to be in that fifth spot if you can. Play Houston. Yeah, play that Houston team that's sinking like a stone right now. So, but if the Steelers would lose, that's a tight spread in Pittsburgh here. The Steelers are actually underdogs again to the Bengals.

The Chargers will want to win that. that game against the Raiders to get to that fifth spot. So that's a line, though, that has seen a little bit of action towards the Raiders this week. It was closer to five and a half, six. It's gone down to four and a half. Some of that is because the Raiders are playing a little bit better football here since Aidan O'Connell came into them back into the lineup. And they've been playing Amir Abdullah. But it's also because of the motivations.

If the Steelers would end up winning, Chargers could pull some guys early. Justin Herbert's been dealing with an ankle injury. So maybe he only plays a couple of series and they get those guys out. So that's a game there. That's a scenario there where you've got to be careful. As I'm looking right now, Tom, that means just 10 teams are fully incentivized to win. And the Chargers obviously might have the incentive to win.

So there's basically 11. And games between teams who are fully incentivized to win, there's virtually two. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh is one. and Minnesota and Detroit is the other, which also creates a really difficult kind of betting environment. Now, look, teams like Dallas, teams like Carolina, these teams are going to want to try to play spoiler to their divisional rivals. So I'm not trying to say these teams are quitting, but like there's no need for them to be stupid, which is the thing. So it's going to be really interesting to see here, Tom, what's happening in week 18.

But I guarantee, hey, look, I say on this podcast all the time, we're not wise. We're just guys. And at least me, it's a very difficult week to really navigate for me. But I would think some really sharp better see some edges here, you know, looking into the history of the coaches, looking into things like that. One team I wanted to talk about, though, from a scenario standpoint, Tom, the L.A. Rams, they can either be the three or the four seed, correct? There's still a chance for them to fall to the four seed? Yeah, they lose and the Buccaneers win. I think the Buccaneers would jump them for the three seats.

So, yeah, there would be a little bit of difference there. But why wouldn't you want to play either Washington or Green Bay vis-a-vis Minnesota or Detroit? I think that one is, we know the Rams. They have a long history with Sean McVeigh of taking opportunities to rest guys. I think they valued the rest a little bit more. And this is a little bit of an older roster here as well. We've seen Cooper Cup the last couple of weeks. Disappear.

He's a freaking ghost out there. He needs a week off desperately. His old legs are, his legs are catching up to him here. He needs the rest of those legs a little bit. Matthew Stafford, just writing up that game a little bit. I didn't realize that he has played every snap of quarterback this year.

Hasn't even, you know, stepped off the field once for Jimmy Garoppolo. So another old. Jimmy Garoppelos is the backup, by the way. Yes, he is. We're going to see him here this weekend. So Stafford is another guy. I don't, you know, maybe the Rams, And that's the other thing.

Whenever you look at some of these lines, they can't rest everybody. It's only a 53-man roster. So sometimes, you know, one of my bets this weekend, I took the Chiefs plus 10 and a half, just thinking, I mean, that line essentially moved basically two full touchdowns

because Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But at the end of the day, they can't rest everybody. It's going to be six or seven of the key players. And then a lot of the starters are going to have to play. or be ready to play behind these backups. So sometimes you've got to look at is there an overcorrection with some of these games. So, yeah, that Rams one is a unique one.

But I think that was because of Sean McVeigh's past here. He does value the rest. He doesn't want to risk injury with a lot of these guys. We see that every preseason with the Rams. So he saw an opportunity. He doesn't think there's much of a difference. They're still trying to get to the Super Bowl. they're going to have to go through those teams anyway at some point, potentially.

So that's why he's deciding to rest these guys. All right, Tom, we're going to pay some bills here. Then we're going to come back and talk about some of the bets that you have made this week. Hey, guys, I want to remind everybody that the early bird special for the 2025 NFL season is live at fantasy points.com. No code required. It's 20% off from now through Super Bowl Sunday. You get everything that we will publish in the 2025. based on whatever package you order.

So if you order NFL premium, you get Tom's bets, you get Paul Kelly's bets, he's been hot with touchdowns, John Hansen's best bets, he was red hot with touchdowns for a while. So plus money kind of bets that were coming in. You get all that, all of our DFS content. Or if you're just somebody who's listening to this for fun, God bless you first and foremost, but you just play NFL regular season fantasy football, that's 20% off as well with our NFL standard,

are all in package, which includes literally everything on the website, 20% off. You can get all of that. So, Tom, I want to discuss that. Just go to fantasy points.com and pick your package. And that's what I wanted to discuss because, hey, it's 2025 already. We're rolling into the new year. Okay, T, bro, you said you've made some bets, but I want to start with anything ATS. You mentioned the Kansas City Chiefs.

You said that game went all the way to 10. Now, the reason is this, Kansas City will risk Patrick Mahomes. You would think somebody like Travis Kelsey will not play in this game. But on the other hand, I mean, say what you want. We have laughed a lot about Carson Wentz. Yes, we have. But he's played a lot of football. And he's won football games.

And 10 points against a one quarterback, 10 and a half, maybe a little too much there for Mr. Wents and the boys in Kansas City. They are in Denver, however. And Denver, obviously, all the incentive. to win to make the playoffs. Yeah, the Broncos win and they're into the playoffs here. So very much they're going to be playing all their guys and they're going to be going all out to win.

But I also think the Chiefs, this is a little challenge for Andy Reid. He's done well in these spots in the past. Last year was Blaine Gabbert as the backup quarterback. Was against the Chargers and the Easton Stick led chargers. But they won that game. And the Action Network, they have a weekly online. article from Evan Abrams. Evan Abrams. And Reed has been an underdog of double digits five times since 2007. And he's covered all five of those games. These are spots that he does relish. He likes

to come up with some plays. And it's a little different here with Carson Wentz, but I think he's going to want to show well with him. And they do have a lot of depth at wide receiver. And we'll see a lot of Carson Steele again this week. And so it's not like they're completely, you know, using guys that are practice squad type of players. So I think there's enough talent here to keep it close. Just don't lose, you know, just, you know, keep it within 10 points here.

And this could be a spot where Denver's a little tight, you know, rookie quarterback, you know, some young players out in that field. You got to, you know, everybody's expecting you to come out and just light up the chiefs, the spread. You know, we're seeing it at 10 and a half here. But sometimes those spots can be difficult. And so, yeah, I'd like the chiefs getting the points here. I think this should be probably closer to 8.5, 9 and a half.

So I think we're getting a little bit of value there. As I said, in the first segment, if Patrick Mahomes was playing in this game, I think the chiefs would probably be two and a half point favorites. So we're essentially seeing a 13 or 14 points. line movement because of Mahomes being out. Chris Jones will certainly not play. Travis Kelsey, we would not expect to play as well. But all those guys worth basically two touchdowns, I'm not so sure of it. So I'll take the 10 and a half. It doesn't feel good, taking a team that's sitting a lot of their starters. But sometimes you've got to feel a little uncomfortable with these

week 18 bets. So Tom, I want to talk about something we didn't touch on in the opening segment of the what about scoreboard watching? Is that just going way too far into the weeds here? Because Denver, Denver can make the playoffs without winning. But what it would take would be the Bengals losing to the Steelers. The Bengals are actually favored, by the way, in that game on the road. And it would take Miami losing their game to the New York Jets and what could be the Swan Song for Aaron Rogers.

So Denver, could they watch a little scoreboard with Miami who somehow of that's the team that like every year there's a team that has you're like, how is that team still alive? It's the dolphins for me this year. But the dolphins actually can make the playoffs. They need the Bengals to lose and they need the Broncos to lose. So, and they win. But it's kind of wild right there. Yeah, that is certainly a scenario where these teams could be scoreboard watching. I don't know if they're going to be necessarily put in that spot.

Bengals, we know they'll be playing Saturday night, so they'll have that result in the bag here. But dolphins, it is a little bit of a weird spot. It's going to be, you know, it seems like reading the tea leaves here early in the week. It's going to be another Tyler Huntley game based on the spread. Dolphins are only point and a half favorites. You know, Mike McDaniel is kind of, you know, saying that they're prepping Tyler Huntley.

to be the starter here this week. So, but I mean, we've seen this Jets team. I would not expect them to race out to a huge lead and be up on the dolphins and then the Broncos. I just don't see that as a scenario for this particular scenario. I think that the Broncos will be playing all out no matter what. They don't want to leave it to chance. We've seen this Jets team collapse at different points this year.

I would not, you know, no lead is safe with that team right now. So for this particular scenario, I don't think it really comes into play. By the way, I was wrong. Miami just needs Denver to lose and Miami to win to make the playoffs. What Cincinnati does is irrelevant. Cincinnati is the team that needs Denver and Miami to lose. But that doesn't matter because Cincinnati plays on Saturday anyway. So Cincinnati has to at least lay its cards out in front of the table.

Did you hit anything else ATS this week, T, bro? I did. I'm on the Buccaneers here. I got it minus 14. It has dropped down to a better number here at 13 and a half. I played this run wrong. I should have known that Derek Carr, that they're going to talk like Derek Carr and Chris Alave

and all these guys are going to play. But I'm still not expecting these guys to play. You know, maybe we see Alvin Kamara, who knows. But all those guys are what caused this line to move back down to 13.5. But this Tampa Bay team stepped in front. front of them last week with Carolina. We were regretting that immediately. But this Buccaneers team has been putting up some points here.

They're six and two against the spread in their last eight games. And they've won five of their last six games outright. And four of those games have been by 15 plus points. You know, they've won those games. So if it ends up being Spencer Rattler again, they crushed them earlier this season. That was a weird game. If you remember back to that game in Austin, October. The Saints went up for a little bit, and then the Buccaneers ended up winning 51 to 27 after trailing for a little bit of that game early in the second quarter there.

So I'm skeptical that we're going to see Carr, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olavay. And if those guys all sit out here, I would expect this line to get up past 14, probably into that 14 and a half, 15 point range, maybe potentially higher. So this is definitely. Definitely one of those. We're tracking the injuries more on the, the Sates side to see how much motivation they have. But we've seen the last two weeks with Spencer Rattler, a quarterback. They've been demolished by the Raiders and the Packers. Outscored 59 to 10 in those two games.

So, you know, this is another one of those. We know the Buccaneers motivation. They win. They win. They win the NFC South. So they have all the motivation in the world. and we'll see just how much the Saints are playing for, obviously a terrible situation going on down there.

We'll see where their heads are at for this game as well. Yeah, potentially really difficult draw here for the New Orleans Saints. And obviously thoughts to anybody here with the New Orleans. I forgot to mention that at the top. But I mean, as of now, the Sugar Bowl has been moved to Thursday afternoon, but who knows if they're finding anything else down there. But obviously, this game is on the road. not that that matters to these players who have families, you know, in New Orleans.

Tom, you said there is the prop market. It's bare. You said Saturday games and really the Sunday night game, which is Detroit, Minnesota, from a fantasy perspective, it's a stardom if you've got them scenario. You know, Detroit can't stop anybody right now, which is probably one of the biggest stories heading into the playoffs. But did you hit anything in the prop market so far that you really like? Yeah.

So let's get into those Saturday games. We were talking a little bit about the Bengals and the Steelers earlier. I got a couple props in that game. I don't have a, I'm still debating if I want to go with the Steelers or the Bengals spread-wise. I'm very torn on that one. The Steelers have been pretty good as underdogs in the past, but they've looked like a team that's moving in the wrong direction here. They could lose five games a row to end their season.

This Bengals team has been picking up a little bit of momentum here. late in the season. But prop-wise, I'm going to go to Pat Friermouth here. He's the tight end for the Steelers here. Bengals are giving up the third most receiving yards per game, 64.3. His prop number is at 32 and a half yards. We haven't projected. We do have projections up. So if you want to check out those numbers, they're going to be very fluid this week. Chris Beck has been crushing it all year with his projections, but they will be a little more fluid here this weekend. But this is one of those games where they're kind of set. And he has them projected for about 41 receiving yards.

If we look back to back in week 13 when these teams played earlier, Frymuth was a big part of that passing game, had 68 yards, six receptions and a touchdown, saw seven targets. We also saw last week big game against the Chiefs, 48 or, more yards in four of his last six games here. So his rule's been growing a little bit. Love the match up here against the Bengals. So we're taking over 32 and a half.

And we're going to Najee Harris as well here. A little scary here, but this prop, his receiving yards prop, is extremely low here. Five and a half yards. Lowest it's been all season long. But you might be surprised that he actually ran more routes than Jalen Warren last weekend. So we're looking at Naji Harris here. What did he do against the Bengals back in week 13?

Season highs and receptions with six and receiving yards with 54. So he likes this matchup since tonight he's given up about 32 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. So he's been able to get to seven yards in 11 of a 16 games. So this is just this is one of those plays where it's more about the number being a little too low here. I thought it should be about eight and a half yards. So we'll take a little bit of value here at five and a half. We have him projected for about 17 receiving yards. So liking how this one sets up.

This one, I wouldn't be surprised if it moves a little bit higher here. So we're taking a little bit of value at five and a half receiving yards. Tom, I do have a prop. I am still not, my teasers have been ice freaking cold. Take a week off. So I might be taking a week off from the Dolan teaser here, just with the changing landscape. I have made the single most basic bitch bet you can possibly make this week.

All right. Let's hear it. Mike Evans over the 91 and a half receiving yards. Oh, yes. He needs 85 to get to a thousand for the 11th consecutive season. They're fully incentivized to win. And basically, I mean, I feel like they could take him out when he gets the 85. But like that would require basically hitting the number.

on the nose and then like not picking up any extra yardage whatsoever. Give me over on Mike Evans. He is hitting that thousand yards. Baker Mayfield's talked about it. Baker Mayfield wants him to get this. That's a Baker kind of achievement. Yo, for sure. He wants to keep going here.

As you said, that's an impressive streak here, trying to make it to 11 seasons in a row. So yeah, just needs to go a little bit more over that. You know, this has historically been a tough matchup for him against the Saints. but there's a key difference this time around. His nemesis is no longer on the roster here. He's up in Washington, Marshawn Laddmore. He shut him down again.

It's like the one guy that Mike Evans could never, you know, just always struggled against him. Had two catches for 34 yards against them earlier this season. But not scared of those, that secondary any longer here up in New Orleans. So like that one a lot. Yeah, he's been at 68. receiving yards are more since he's come back from that hamstring injury. So it's been key part of this passing game and it's rolling right now with Baker Mayfield.

All right, T-Bro. Anything else in the prop market or we? Yeah, I got a couple more. Yeah, yeah. This one and talk incentives. Okay. The futures. Yeah, this one scares me a little bit. Derek Henry over 87 and a half rushing yards.

We have him projected for about 110 yards. I'm going with it. He's been at 92 yards and nine of his last 14 games. This is one of those like 17.5 points spread. If they get really out in front of them, that is the Cleveland Browns. You know, maybe he gets pulled early. But if it's, you know, semi-competitive here for three quarters here, I think he's going to get to this number.

He averaged 6.6 yards per carry against them earlier this year, but he only got 11 carries. That was a weird game there. That was one of the Ravens' bizarre losses up in Cleveland against James Winston. They were pretty big favorites in that game. But this is a, we could have a game script here where they could lean on the run here. My other concern would be that they also want to try to get Lamar, Lamar, another MVP here.

Maybe they go a little more pass heavy. But at the end of the day, they're probably going to be far more concerned with wrapping up the AFC North title. So he's been able to get to 309 yards in the last two games here against much better run defenses against Pittsburgh and Houston. Houston, that was another weird game. That was one where they won by 29 points and he was able to get enough carries to rack up a lot of yards. So just keep this semi-competitive Cleveland. Let Derek Henry get to about 20 carries. That should get us to this over 87 and a half rushing yards.

we're rolling with the king on Saturday at 430. I got it Sunday night too, if we want to just hit that as well. I mean, I'll get them all out here. I'll obviously be adding more to the article and to our Discord as the week goes along here. But I'm going to Sunday night football. Little Ammon Rae, St. Brown, over receiving yards. 70 and a half is the number at Fandall. We haven't projected for about 89 yards.

Minnesota has been a little bit of a slot funnel here, giving up the fifth most receiving yards per game, around 90 to receivers aligned in the slot. But the bigger thing is, Minnesota plays a lot of two high safeties. Highest rate in the league, around 64%. And Alman Raw is averaging 2.47 yards per route run and that 32% target share on his routes against two man high looks.

So if the Vikings continue to roll with two high safeties, we know where Jared Gough is going to look. It's going to be towards Alman Ra, St. Brown. He's been a little disappointing here recently in terms of the yardage numbers because the, you know, Jared Gough's been spreading around a little bit to James and Williams. Sam Laporte is back in the mix. But this matchup is just screaming for Alman Ra to get fed a lot here. We have him projected for a lot of yards.

And then if we look back to the matchup in week 17 earlier, week seven earlier this year, he had eight catches for 112 yards. So it's already crushed in this matchup. So looking at Amun Ra over 70 and a half receiving yards in the Sunday night caper to the regular season here. Tom, we're going to take a final break. And then we'll discuss just really briefly some of the futures here for Super Bowl, maybe some movement in the awards market, see if there's anything that you think maybe we can exploit here in the last week of the season. All right, Tom Brawley, you know, I don't think either you or I would say that we think the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the NFL.

That being said, as we're sitting here right now before week 18, they are the only team that has clinched a buy in the in the playoffs, which means they have fewer chances to lose a game. They have fewer chances to lose somebody to injury. Ergo, they are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Look, I understand that the two-time defending champions, like hell, I am betting Kansas City plus 340 to win the Super Bowl this year. It's as vulnerable as I've ever seen them. That being said, you do have to go through Arrowhead Stadium to get to the Super Bowl. Yeah, their favorites for a reason, and you nailed it there.

The time to bet the Chiefs was a couple of weeks ago whenever they were still had just one loss at the top of the AFC. And they had much, you know, not much longer, but, you know, much longer compared to where they're at right now. You could have gotten them at, you know, plus 600, plus 700, just a couple of weeks ago when they were looking a little more vulnerable. So now that they've, you know, they've put together some good performances, obviously on Christmas Day. That was a complete performance against the Steelers. Have the home field advantage locked up here. So good reason that they're plus 360 at this point.

But I know we did this podcast. We talked a little futures at the end of last week's podcast. My bet would still be on the Baltimore Ravens here. I think they're playing the best football in the AFC right now. We'll get to see it again on Saturday. The defense was a vulnerability for much of the season, and they've kind of corrected a lot of their weaknesses in the secondary. They were getting gashed through the air quite a bit to start the season,

and they've improved, at least tightened up that secondary a little bit. So that would be where I would look. They're plus 650 here. Of course, they still got to win. They do have a tough path. It looks like if, you know, all the favorites in the AFC win in the opening ground, they would have to go to Buffalo to play. But I think that running game with Derek Henry, you know,

it will travel up to Buffalo if there's some ugly conditions up there. So, Tom, looking at the NFC, the favorite is still the Detroit Lions. But, I mean, is there a lot, is there value in Minnesota right now? I feel like nobody's really believed in Minnesota because I think people are having a hard time believing in Sam Darnold. And maybe people will be proven right in the playoffs. But Minnesota is the only team outside of Detroit that has a chance to get a buy here. They're plus 850, which actually puts them behind not just Detroit, but also behind Philadelphia, also behind Buffalo, also behind Baltimore. So there is maybe some value there.

If you consider that Minnesota, if they win this game against Detroit, Detroit can't stop anybody right now. is picking up a home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Yeah, and if you're looking to do that, if I'm betting on the Vikings right now, plus 800, 850, you better sure as hell be betting on them to win this game against the Detroit Lions this weekend as well. I think we're looking at Fandall right now. It's plus 132.

So if you're making the Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl bet, you sure as hell should also make that week 18 money line bet against the Detroit Lions as well. But you're right, Joe. They've been kind of slept on all year here. Another big victory against the Packers. They're in position here. Two and a half, three point underdogs to Detroit.

A Detroit team that's looked vulnerable here at points. Nobody can quite slow down their offense, but their defense really can't slow down many teams either. They've got a couple of interceptions of Brock Purdy, a couple Jake Moody misses, or otherwise, you know, that was a pretty evenly played game on Monday night. football against a 49ers team that has a lot of reserves in along their offensive line and defense right now. So if I'm making a Vikings Super Bowl or NFC bet right now, be sure to put a bet

on that money line in the week 18 game as well. Basically, all the awards, Tom, have a pretty heavy favorite at this point. Offensive rookie of the year isn't even on the board. Jaden Daniels has, even though as greatest season as Brock Powers and Brian Thomas has, it just shows you how hard it is to win that award if you're not a quarterback. If a quarterback plays even reasonably well, which obviously Daniels has done. But all the other awards have pretty heavy favorites right now. Josh Allen minus 300 to win MVP, though. I guess Lamar could close that gap with a really impressive performance.

I don't think we're going to see much of Allen this week. Jared Verse has leapt out to a huge lead for defensive rookie of year. I mean, Jamar Chase would probably have to go utterly nuclear to get past. Saquan Barkley. Yeah, even then. Yeah, he's going to win the triple cry. Great chance.

You know, we saw Cooper Cup do that a couple of years ago. Jamar Chase has an excellent chance of winning the receiving triple crown. And it probably isn't going to be enough for, you know, Saquan Barkley to get 2,000 yards rushing in 16 games. And this era of football, it trumps what Jamar Chase is doing. But he's certainly had a special season as well. The interesting one is defensive player of the year. I think T.J. Watt was like the favorite

forever. And then people like, I guess like there was just some kind of like groundswell movement of, hey, look at his numbers. They're not even as good as like last year or the year before. And now all of a sudden, Patrick Sartan is the betting favorite to be the defensive player of the year. And look, I write up my, I write up my wide receiver cornerback column every week. I don't think I'm doing it this week because of how few teams actually are playing for anything worth a damn. But Patrick Sartan is the guy you avoid. And, you know, it's hard for a corner to really put up statistics. But that guy is recognized as like the successor to Revis Island.

But is there value on T.J. Watt at this point, Tom, plus 170. Anybody else here who could who could possibly emerge here? Or is this just something you're staying away from? Yeah, this is certainly the one market where I think I'd consider laying a bet here on T.J. Watt. The MVP market's kind of close as he said. You know, Josh Allen's like minus 300, minus 400. I mean, we're not going to see a whole lot of Josh Allen this week. I don't think, even Lamar, you know, they're such huge favorites.

I don't think he's going to get much movement for beating up on a pretty bad Cleveland Browns team at this point. But this is one where I could see some movement here. You know, they're playing Saturday night against the Bengals. It's prime time spot, standalone game. They are at home. So, you know, home crowd could be a little bit of factor. could be a little more difficult on that Cincinnati offensive line.

If we'd look back to what happened in the Cincinnati game earlier this year in week 13, T.J. Watt did have two sacks in that game. So we know Joe Burrow, he takes a lot of sacks. And that makes him, actually, you know, this is, you know, unlike Caleb Williams, he takes a lot of sacks. But, you know, he's delivering the ball down the field, making plays. so we know Borough will take sacks. So this is the spot if the Steelers would win on Saturday night

and T.J. Watt plays a big part of it. Patrick Sartan, you know, I do think they'll be, I don't know the actual schedule for Sunday. I'm sure that will be one of the games that is featured on CBS between the Chiefs and the Broncos in that 430 window since they could wrap up a playoff spot. But, you know, they still have competition in that 430 window for eyes.

So there will be no competition for eyes on Saturday night for T.J. Watt. So yeah, that would be, I think he could make up some ground here if he has a two-sack performance against Joe Burrow. So Tom Browley, forgive me, but I will never ever lay a bet on the comeback player of the year award until they specifically say what the criteria needs to be or whatever. because I don't even know what Joe Flacco came back from last year and he beat a guy who literally died on the football field. Yeah. So like I'm not like, but I will say Joe Burrow is the favorite to win that over Sam Darnold.

So I guess Burrow came back from injury. Darnold came back from being sucking. So like I don't know, but they actually have, the AP did put out guidelines to their voters. So like I honestly, this would be, I think Jake Dobbins is probably the better bet here. Yeah, as you said, Donald, they don't want their voters to vote for players that are, you know, everybody thought so.

Yeah. It's like a different. They need to make a most improved or whatever. They may need to make a distinction. We know the NFL. They'll probably love to do that any reason for them to give out another award. But yeah, maybe this is one of those. You bet, borough, minus 220.

It feels kind of safe here. If the guidelines are already out there that they don't want their voters voting for. players that sucked before previously. They want guys that are coming back from injury or, you know, whatever the case is. So, you know, I think Burrow, he's gotten a lot of, a lot of, actually his MVP odds. I mean, he was like 10, like 1,000 to 1 to win the MVP going into last week's game against the Broncos. And his odds drop pretty significantly because he's playing so well right now.

So maybe this is the way for voters to. get him an award as the comeback player of the year. Obviously, he's coming back from a wrist injury. He's down to 30 to 1 odds at MVP. So minus 220 might not be, you know, I know a lot of people probably don't want to lay big negative prices, but it feels like Burroughs pretty safe to win this comeback player of the year award. Tom, we're going to keep this podcast going throughout the playoffs. We'll probably do some NFL draft versions of the pod. I love doing it. Week 18, a little bit of a tougher week. But hey, there is money to be made. throwing some good wishes out to good friend Trey,

who we hope is back cooking up some absolute garbage in future weeks. We need the Trey garbage for the playoffs, man. He just let us take it over this week just because there's enough garbage out in the normal market. He didn't feel like he needed to do anything. But remember, everybody, we're not wise, we're just guys. Happy New Year. I'm going to talk to you, Wild Card Week.