Fantasy Football Daily - NFC South Divisional Breakdown | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: July 16, 2023

In the beginning of a new series headed into the 2023 NFL season, Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) joins Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) to break down the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, and Panthers of the NFC South. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Everyone, and welcome into the Take Talk podcast. My name is Stephen O'Rourke, and with me this week is our esteemed guest, consistent guest, Chris Wecht. Chris, how you doing today? I'm doing good. Brett decided to, you know, go off to the beach with his family,

enjoy this little break between the NFL news cycle where nothing really happens. You know, we're just launching a major data tool. He just, you know, but he's, you know, he's getting in some free, some relaxation time before, before the launch. Yeah, it's really like the last moment, the last time because next week, training camp start up. And then from there, I mean, the NFL cycle just really begins. And you, you don't, you don't escape. especially, like you said, with our data tool coming out on Monday. The official, it's been announced on Twitter, social media.

The data platform is finally going live to the public on Monday. And it's, I'm really excited for it. It's a big day for like me, you and Brett and the company as a whole for this to finally, like, be out to the entire world and to like the entire customer base. Yeah, and it'll be free that whole week, so you can try it out. All you have to do is, I think, make an account, and it's free for the week, and you can play around and see all the cool stuff that you can do. All the random stats that we drop on here, you'll be able to do that, and much more. I mean, there's, I've probably spent, oh, I don't know, 12 hours a day for the past

four or five months playing in it, and I still haven't seen everything that it can do just because there's that much. Let's let's give a little sneak peek for the people. What's your like not a specific stat, just something cool that you have looked at that you think will be cool for people to check out? I mean, it's just as simple. Like it goes so in depth, like you said. And really like some of my favorite things to just look at are just getting into like down,

down by down performance for teams like you can filter by how to you perform on first. down and then like what their drop back percentage run percentage looks like what about what looks like on second down third and long third and short uh you know are they using play action on these plays are you know where's the qb throwing from is he getting pressured more on certain downs like it's it's endless i mean you can filter down to like you know the most broad spectrum even down to like literally play by play and it's like it's i mean it's i mean it's i mean I mean, it's awesome. I, like you said, I've spent, you know, hours the last couple weeks just diving in and trying to find different interesting stats.

Because I know we're going to start, like, throwing out a bunch of stats on, like, our, you know, our own accounts as well as the data account. And so it's literally is endless. Yeah, whether you're NFL just fan, a fantasy player, sports better, whatever it is, like, there'll be something you can gain from this. and it really is whatever you want to make of it. You can keep it as simple or as deep as you want to make it. Yeah, all the downs that, like, you'll be able to split by coverage scheme and see which, you know, what, you know, this receiver is really good at beating cover one, but struggles against cover two.

I can flip over to the defensive side of the thing and see which defenses play the most of cover two, the upcoming matchup even and see what, what defenses or cover cells they play the most. I like to look at what defenses are really struggle, like certain personnel's. Like certain, I'm trying to think of last year. It was like a heavy 12 personnel team last year. The Eagles were at times. The Eagles, lions. Yeah.

Yeah. You can say, all right, they're playing the Cardinals this week. Maybe the Cardinals are especially bad at playing 12 personnel for whatever reason. And you could say that might be a spot where they might have a little more success. Or we could expect to not see that third wide receiver on the field as much this week because we expect them to try to push that edge that they might have, stuff like that. Yeah, I think like I do a little bit of gambling. But I think this year with this tool, I'm going to ramp it up a little bit just because

all of the insights and data and stuff that a lot of the, a lot of betting analysts, use and have access to to this is going to put you above it like right up to par with them you can you can figure out what a lot of your favorite analysts figure out if you take the time and I think that it's good like it is it's going to be interesting to do a lot

of like different individual player props because I think that this tool is going to help a ton with like navigating who to play what to play over under things like that yep and what you see on Monday a knell of next week is about a fraction of

what the tool will be by the time we're, if we're ever, I don't think we'll ever be done considering it's done being built out. There is just going to continue to be so much more stuff added. We're currently working on an O-line, D-line matchup tool. So for the upcoming O-line-D-line matchup for the week, there's, yeah, there's just so much more coming. And yeah, I hope everybody at least checks it out and tries to have some fun with it. Yeah.

Yeah. it's it's going to grow it's going to be so big it's already so big that you can spend hours upon hours in it and it's only going to get even bigger and that's what's going to be the fun part I think that it'll be cool to watch the you know usually utilize the tool right away as well as watching the tool grow as we you know get into the season throughout the season and into next year and everything so yep all right why don't you tell what the people what we're going to talk about yeah so you know we're about eight weeks away for from the start of the NFL season.

And so I figured that what we can start, what we're going to start doing is just going division by division and doing kind of like a team preview. But what I want to do it is I want to frame it as kind of talking through best and worst case scenario, realistic best and worst case scenarios for each team. As far as win totals, you know, obviously excluding injury because you can throw injury in every single time.

but just like going, like I said, diving in and figuring out what we think a team can, you know, over-exceed to and where, and where they can under-exceed and just like what would lead to those outcomes. And so we'll kind of like, we'll lead in with, we'll do a division each week. We'll lead in with, you know, talking about win over-under and then kind of, you know, touch on some additions and then how that's going to affect this upcoming season. Cool. So what are we doing this week? The NFC South, right? Yeah, so this week we're going to start with the NFC South. I thought it was a fun division because, I mean, it's kind of just a mess of a division.

A lot of teams that are trying to figure themselves out making changes on the fly a little bit. And so we'll dive right in with the Atlanta Falcons who I got all these odds from Fanduel just for everybody, you know, the sake of prosper, you know, transparency. see their win over under this year's eight and a half. And, you know, really the team as a whole has changed quite a bit. They brought in quite a few free agents. They brought in a new defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen from New Orleans. And then everybody knows them going and drafting Bijan.

So with their win, first of all, do you think that win total eight and a half? Do you like that? Do you like the over or the under right now if you were looking at that? I probably lean the over. I think the Falcons are probably going to win more games than people expect just because of the NFC as a whole not being great. Their specific division not being great. I think they play the AFC South, if I remember this year. I know they have one of the easiest strength of schedules right now.

So I think they're going to fall into some wins that people, kind of like last year, like they won a couple games that people just did not really expect them to win. I think Arthur Smith, while, you know, frustrating at times and how he uses certain players, does put out a good enough offense, especially with a strong, we know he can build a strong running game. That's no secret. And now he might have one of the best running backs in football to run behind that with Bijon, who they've been calling a weapon, really. So I don't know what that means. Right. That seems to be that that's the line for like him and Gibbs and some of these running backs.

I mean, seemingly every year, but this year it feels more ramped up for a guy like Bijon than it has prior. And so I agree, I think, you know, looking at it, they're probably going to go over in their wins. They brought in quite a few. I mean, it was their defense that wasn't the best last year than Mario da running the offense. Mariotta is who he is. And we saw that for sure last year, no matter even if you cater an offense completely to him, like Arthur Smith kind of did. they still kind of pretty much reached their peak with Mario to last year. And so they, you know, as everyone knows, they made the switch to Ritter.

And he's the guy that seemingly is going to, you know, hold the reins of the offense. They, you know, they have Hineke as a backup plan to, you know, kind of, I think, a break in case of emergency. If Ritter is, does it develop, it is pretty terrible, which I don't necessarily see happening. But I think the big thing for this team is, is getting an effective offense in there. Sorry, an effective defense is what I meant. Because like you said, Arthur Smith, you know, in Tennessee, he formulated quite a few very good offenses built on the run game,

built on play action behind it. And I think that he's going to bring that and he's going to really lean into that this season with, I think, the trust with Ritter and with, you know, an offense that ran the ball really, really well last year. and seemingly upgraded at, you know, they drafted Bergeron in the second round, which he probably steps in and plays as an interior lineman this year. And so they, you know, they went and they tried to beef up the offensive line a little bit, and they went and tried to really lean into their strength,

which is the run game in the draft. And kind of, and, you know, I think that that's where they're going to really try and take the pressure off of ridder this year. Yeah, they're definitely, they definitely, have a solid offensive line. They're definitely going to try to run the ball. I do think you mentioned they brought in Ryan Nielsen as a new defensive coordinator from New Orleans. I'm a little interested how this will work because so New Orleans defenses have historically been very DB heavy. They use a lot of them. They have really good safeties in particular. Marshaun Latimore has been one of the best

corners in the league for a number of years now. I don't know. So bringing in Jesse Bates definitely helps this. I'm curious if the rest of the unit can support a defense like the Saints have run in the past with the DBs. Jeff Okuda has really not lived up to the hype, but I like taking a shot on him. AJ Terrell has been very good at times, but I don't know if he's, you know, an elite talent by any means. And then it's, then it gets pretty ugly, pretty quick, which is the opposite of what the Saints have done in the past with guys like they've had Marcus Williams, Malcolm Jenkins, Troncy Gardner Johnson, all on the same team at the certain times. They go like five or six deep in their defensive backroom. And I don't know if the Falcons have that. I mean, that's been

their problem for years now is they don't have a great secondary. Right. And, you know, similar, same thing with New Orleans. You know, a big part of what they do is having their edge rushers get to the quarterback, which the Atlanta Falcons. were, I think, second to last in pressure percentage last year. I mean, it would, like, they never got to the quarterback. You saw it. It was, you know, that was a lot of times how they ended up losing games was that they were, they were allowing a quarterback to basically just sit back and pick them apart because

nobody could get to the quarterback. And so, you know, they kind of took a couple. They took a flyer on Bud DePree this year. They have Callais Campbell. They have Grady Jarrett. it's a team that on the surface is probably going to struggle a little bit to get to the quarterback again. I mean, with like Bud Dupree being their biggest guy they brought in, they also drafted Zach Harrison in the third round. I think it really is going to hinge on the secondary being better this year.

AJ Terrell kind of going back. He struggled at times last year, but overall looked to be content. continuing to ascend, having him be a pillar on one side, Akuda developed, showing a little bit of development, you kind of saw it in spots last year in Detroit, but like you said, really never saw the full thing. And then Jesse Bates does bring in quite a good presence in the, in the secondary as like your deep safety. And so I think that it really is going to hinge on can they create pressure and, you know, take a little bit off of the secondary having to hold. up for you know over two and a half seconds allowing them for the QV to throw.

Yeah, that's what really makes the Bijon pick frustrating is they really do need some kind of they need to be able to get pressure on the quarterback this year, especially because I don't think the secondary is going to be good enough to like to offset that. There, you know, I know there wasn't really because so Tyree Wilson was off the board. Will Anderson was obviously not there. even if it was taking a guy like Jalen Carter or something, but they desperately needed some more help with their edge rushers. I don't want to, if it was my team,

I wouldn't want to be counting on Clias Campbell at this point in his age to be a significant contributor to my, how I'm getting pressure to the QB. And like you said, Bud Dupree is really much, is really a flyer at best. Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, though, this comes down to Desmond Ritter, though, I think.

If we're talking ceiling and floor, that's really what it comes down to. I don't think he can be worse than Marriota was last year. Like, I mean, realistically, no. I mean, like, if you go, like, if you go and dive into, like, our data tool and you look at some of the, some of the stats for, like, Kyle Pitts and Drake London, it just looks, it's bad. I mean, Kyle Pitts, I think, had, like, a 49% catch rate. his catchable ball percentage was what was terrible. It just, like, at no point

could that offense really garner a lot of momentum because while they were getting like, Alijer was getting five yards a clip and all that, eventually you're going to have to throw the ball and it seemingly looked like no matter what she, whether it was trying to straight drop back

with Marriota or roll him out, which they did a ton, he just could never get in the flow of the offense and just could not get in sync with his wide receivers, you know, specifically Pitts, who I think, you know, everybody was kind of let down by last year after hoping for a big, a big year and, you know, expecting him to kind of be their main contributor. I think that the biggest thing for, you know, Ritter is just taking the easy throws.

Like, if you look at Atlanta, I think Marriota led the league in an average depth of target, which. Yeah, I mean, he kind of just. I always remember that play where he's like falling over. They're down near the goal line and he was like falling backwards and kind of just threw the ball up. Like, yeah, he takes chances that didn't need to be taken all over the field. Yeah. And so I really think, you know, Arthur Smith getting it into Ritter's head of like they have athletes, they have London, they have pits, they have Robinson now, three guys that all can win in space.

and it's just we don't need to overcook it. They can play a ball possession game. I think, you know, having Alighers still there, bringing in Bijon, this is a team that really can kind of just grind you down. And I think that's going to be their goal as an offense is I don't think you're going to see a ton of explosive plays out of them. I think you're going to see a lot of ball control offense, a lot of heavy personnel running the ball, play action, kind of, you know, like they did with Mario, but just hoping that Ritter, is a more effective version of it. Exactly.

Yeah, I would agree with all that. He did lead the, shockingly led the NFL in Adot, which is very surprising. It's surprising. It's also just, it's damning because, like, if you're going to lead the league in Adda, I feel like you're looking to have an offense

kind of similar to what, like I think number two was Tua, which would make sense. Which makes sense. And that's the offense that, you know, they utilized that. It was a team that did produce a lot of explosive plays. The Atlanta Falcons were at the opposite side of that where they're throwing all these deep balls into the explosive play rate. The explosive everything was just nowhere to be seen because Mariotta was throwing the overthrowing pits, throwing five yards in front of the receiver, you know, missing guys downfield.

even when he took the shot, he'd take the shot to the wrong guy. And so I think that it's all about just keeping, in my opinion, Ritter in the safe zone. Don't make him do too much. You know, keep the training wheels on for him this year. And even then, like you said, it's a division that's bad, and it's a team that really could probably fight for the division as a whole and win the division this year,

which I think would be, you know, it would be a big step, but it is all about evaluating Ritter and if he's their guy for the future. Yeah. And I don't want to make it sound like I think Ritter is way better than Marriott. Ritter was also bad. He had a negative 6.5% completion percentage over expectation, which is very bad. Mariotas was negative 2.3. That's mostly driven, though.

If he's throwing deep a lot, he's not expected to complete those passes as much. so that like Ritter's deep throw percentage was about half of Mariotas. But I don't think Ritter will be as bad as Marietta, but I don't know if that means he's marginally better though either. So I think that keeps their like ceiling case pretty low. Yeah. I know I said I like the over on their win total, but like I'm not thinking they're getting like nine wins feels good to me. Right, right. 10 is where I'm like, oh, maybe.

But, like, I think the line is pretty good, but like, 9 feels good to me. I don't, 10 doesn't feel awesome. So it's a very thin margin of a ceiling outcome, I feel like. Yeah. Yeah, 9 does feel like a best case scenario. Nine with, you know, possibly a division win, you know, maybe. I mean, you know, if it plays out like last year, you're probably competing for a wildcard spot. but which is kind of again the trajectory that the team wants to go it's the clock has been it's kind of ticking on arthur smith to start

producing as a coach i know that you know he's had a little bit of turmoil as far as the overall talent of the team but it's starting to get there and they did you know they had a chance to potentially go and grab a quarterback this year do something different at quarterback they decided to stick with ridder so it really hangs heavily on arthur smith to kind of start to show that this team is turning a corner. And like you said, nine wins feels good. And that I think would show their fan base and the NFL as a whole that they are taking a step forward. But there's also a world where, you know, Ritter kind of continues to play similarly to how he ended the year.

He had, you know, a few good throws here and there. And he looked good in spots. But overall, like you said, it wasn't the, it wasn't amazing. It wasn't like he came in and, you know, cemented himself as the starter in any way, shape, or form. It's just kind of like, this is the best guy we got and we want to run with it because he's young and we can develop him. And so I'd like, there is a world where I think that they're, you know, it's not super low. Again, it is right around their win total of like, I'd say like six games is probably a worst case scenario because there's not a ton of games they're going to lose. The bucks are pretty, the bucks are bad.

Carolina, you don't know what they're going to be. And then they do have the AFC South, like you said. So I don't see them losing a ton of games, but there is a scenario where Ritter is not playing the best. Their defense can't generate pressure. And they're able to win kind of a ground and pound game against some of these teams that are a little bit worse than them. Yeah.

So, I mean, I'd say they're floor-case. could like they could easily be drafting in the top 10 again next year with five five wins yeah six you know maybe six five or six wins is probably their floor because they'll fall into some wins but yeah very thin outcomes i think for this team yeah yeah and it's very like you said very contingent on qv play because heineke coming in and relieving is not isn't raising your it doesn't raise anything in any way he might scrap together a couple of wins for you but even that i think having to bring in heinecke is still a kind of a worst case scenario for the outcome of their season yeah all right let's move on to the carolina panthers

so you have the win total is it's seven and a half that feels rich to me did yeah that i saw that and i was kind of surprised at first it puts them that they have the third best odds to win the division at plus 330, you know, Atlanta was at eight and a half. They're, you know, seven and a half puts them in third with for the win total. And I think it's a lot hinge on people believing in Frank Reich and, you know, people believing that Bryce Young is the number one quarterback prospect this year. It is a team that I will say they pretty much kept their defense together from last year, they, you know, lost Matt Ionitis, not a huge loss for them.

But a defense that performed really well and an offense that couldn't throw the ball. And that's what obviously is trying to be changed this year, bringing in Frank Reich, bringing in Bryce Young. This is a team that wants to push the ball downfield throwing a little bit more and just start to, you know, get a passing game going. Yeah, who do you What receiver, who do you think leads the team in receiving by the end of the year? In yards. In yards. I mean, my gut says, my gut says it's going to be T.J. Charg.

Yeah, that's what I would go as well. But my point is the fact that that is our answer pretty much to, like, this is not a team that is going to be effective in the passing game at a high level anyway compared to other teams in the league. Right. You can't go into a year with a rookie QB and your receiving court being DJ Shark, Adam Thielen, and a second round rookie, Jonathan Mingo. Yeah. And then, yeah, Terrace Marshall, who, you know, showed some signs of life and then, you know, 15% design plays for Leviska, Chanel. Yeah. Yeah, Chanel will still be get the design plays, I'm sure.

Which is, you know, not bad at in that role now that everybody's kind of reset their. expectations for him, but yeah. This is not a team that is going to be in the top half of passing yardage by the year. And like they, I'd probably say they're pretty much a lock for bottom third even. Yeah. And just a matter of how. Like, whatever you think of Bryce Young, there's just not enough here for this to be an

effective passing game, I don't think. The one thing that Bryce Young has that a lot of rookie quarterbacks do not have coming in is he has a pretty solid offensive line in front of him. When Brett and I did the O-Line ranking show, I believe I had Carolina right around like nine or ten or honorable mention, but, you know, their top third of the league in offensive line player projected offensive line play for this year. And so that is one thing that he has to his benefit is he's not going to, hopefully, seemingly not going to be under pressure constantly. And so, I think that's going to be huge for him because, you know, they're going to, I think wide receiver is going to be a position they're going to continue to address down the line.

But it's going to make it tough on him this year, but at least he's going to be able to sit in the pocket and make reads, as opposed to some rookie quarterbacks that have to come in and run all over their place with like a chicken with their head cut off and, you know, try to create. Well, yeah, exactly, the Justin field scenario of having to develop your passing game while. also trying to run away from guys constantly every single play. Bryce Stone's not going to have to deal with that. And that's why, and that I really think is why their win total is where it is, is that they may not have a great receiving court. They brought in Miles Sanders as a running back, who I think that if you dive into his stats a little bit,

they're not the most, they're not the greatest from like an advanced rushing statistic standpoint. but, you know, they also produced a good rushing game with Deonti Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, and, you know, kind of these scraps of guys behind the offensive line. So, you know, the run game is going to produce, and their defense is good. I think that the line really comes from their expected. Vegas and everybody's kind of expecting Bryce Young to be able to develop this year behind a very good offensive line. And, you know, potentially take a step right in his rookie year. Yeah, and we haven't really talked about the coaching staff

because that's obviously a total overhaul from last year with Frank Reich at head coach, Thomas Brown, O.C. He came over from the Rams and Evereaux from the Broncos is now their defensive coordinator. I don't have a strong feel for what I think they want to do. Frank Reich's been a part of what feels like multiple different kinds of offenses at this point. And I don't like I don't know what the Frank Wright staple thing is really at this point. Right. Because you haven't had him play.

You haven't had him coach with a consistent quarterback. Right. I mean from his entire like even back to when he's in Philadelphia, that was, you know, a rotating cast because of Carson Wentz getting hurt and things like that. And then, you know, he goes to Indianapolis and he's, you know, he's dealing with the constant change over there. So this is really the first time where he has really the first time since Carson Wentz where he's had a quarterback that like the team wants to develop. They're not necessarily looking for, you know, they're not built or building for a playoff run this year for the first time in his career or at least in a while for him. And so it is going to be interesting what and how they build this offense around Bryce Young. I think that, you know, bringing in Thomas Brown from the Rams,

I think what they're going to do is they're going to try to institute a lot of motion and try and just keep defenses on their toes and create some of those easy button throws for Bryce Young early on in his career is what I would guess. And then hopefully, you know, as they get him into the system, he starts to, you know, take ownership of the offense a little bit. But I think that it's going to be a lot of motion. and a lot of just like trying to create confusing looks for defenses. And, you know, if Thomas Brown kind of keeps to what Sean McVey likes run,

you're probably a lot of like tight bunch set personnel. I think they'll go a little bit heavier than the Rams really did. I think they have the players that do that a little bit more and, you know, the not super great receiving court to where you're going to want to run a ton of 11 personnel. out, but I think it's really going to be a lot of bunch and, you know, giving Bryce Young easy looks off of motion and trying to create confusion for the defense right at the point of the snap. Yeah, if there's one thing I think we can count on, it's that Rake is going to tailor an offense to what his quarterback does best in. That's what he's always done. That's what he did with Wence.

It's what he totally changed the offense when it got to Foles and they won the Super Bowl. then it, you know, he goes to Indianapolis. He changes it again for Philippa Rivers, who at that point of his career was pretty limited in what he could do, but they put out a functional team. And then it pretty much fell off the wagon with Matt Ryan and Carson Wince and a bunch of Colts quarterbacks we saw last year. And that's where I think it kind of ended. So at the very least, we know he's going to put Bryce Young in situations that

Bryce Young is comfortable with because that is what he's done and his past. Yeah, and then I really like the Everow hire as well. Bringing him over from Denver, which was a defense that, you know, played really well last year. And if not for Russell Wilson, I think we would have, a lot of people would have recognized the defense a little bit more, but because they got caught and not winning a ton of games, they kind of got pushed the wayside, not a lot of national attention, not in a lot of need

for it outside of what is going on with Russell Wilson that week. but I think he inherits a very talented defense with a lot of really fast guys. A lot of guys that can make plays in space. I mean, they have Brian Burns. They've got Derek Brown in the middle. Frankie Louvre started to come out a little bit last year. J.C. Horn holding down as their kind of locked down corner. I think that they have a lot of pieces where this defense can,

I believe raises the floor for this team where again I think that this is I think that you know worst case scenario for them is probably five to six wins like it'd be right in my opinion it'd be right around where Atlanta is I think that they could be picking in the top 10 but I think that they're going to be in

most of the games that they play I don't think you're going to see them be super handily a lot this year because of what they're because of their defensive coordinator because of the pieces they have on the defensive end yeah i i don't i think it could be lower i could see it being three or four this a three or four win team just with i just think they're really going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball at times um like christ they've they've had dj more and christian mcalfrey to really help them out the past few years on the offensive side and that is just totally gone. I do agree their defense. Jay C. Horn, I think, is one of the best up-and-coming

corners in the game right now. He got hurt last year, right? Or was that two years ago? Yeah, last year he did. Yeah, he missed some time last year and we didn't get to see that. If they can get any kind of resurgence out of Dante Jackson, that would be awesome for their defense as well. Yeah. Jeremy Chin used to play like this kind of box safety linebacker hybrid role. that has not been something that has ever really been done in Denver, so I don't know what his role now becomes in the offense. Maybe just a slot corner strictly. I don't know if he – I kind of like him as the box safety role,

so I don't know how much he fits in a Denver-style offense or defense, but we'll see. Yeah, because Denver, if you go back and watch their defense last year, it's a pretty basic defense. Like when they are – It's the same guys on the field. Yeah, it is pretty basic personnel. It is not a ton of super confusing looks. They kind of just line up and go.

And, you know, in Denver, they have the secondary to kind of be able to do that. I think that they'll introduce a little bit more confusion, a little bit more, you know, disguised looks this year. But I don't like you said, it'll be a pretty, I think, basic defense because they don't have the secondary necessarily that Denver had. but they have more of a front seven or a better front seven than I think Denver had. And so I think that it is going to be a team that runs out a lot of base personnel. I do see Jeremy Chin kind of moving into more of a nickel backer. Maybe even, God, maybe they move them into, well, they wouldn't move them to a nickel backer, a nickel linebacker.

So probably just really, like you said, lining up over the nickel and just having him probably play a lot of tight ends and lining up over tight ends and matching up against them because that's where, kind of his big size and speed matches up best with. Yep. Yeah. So three, four wins, that feels like the low point for me and the ceiling being, I don't see them getting higher than eight wins.

I don't think they win the division. I don't think they're competing for a wildcar spot or anything like that. Yeah, and I don't, I would say that I don't think they are either. I think that. No, I don't think so.

Next, like next year filling out that offense is, there's probably a little bit more when they want to start to push it. But this year is big, like evaluate Bryce Young. What do we have? And, you know, he's going to get a chance to be evaluated because he's not going to get a ton of guys that are going to get a ton of, other than like DJ chart gets good, decent separation.

But other than that, a lot of guys that don't get a ton of separation. So he's going to have to make some tight window throws in this offense to these guys. Yep. All right. Now moving on to the New Orleans Saints who are the projected odds on winner of the division at plus 135. Over under wind total is nine and a half. Another team that is making a switch at quarterback in this division, bringing in Derek Carr to take over for Andy Dalton. And, you know, this, a lot of people are high on the New Orleans.

Orleans Saints this year. Really? I feel like they're not. I feel like lately I've seen some buzz from people who are starting to buy into Derrick R in New Orleans. I feel like that's the one. You don't have to sell me on Derrickard. I feel like that's the one thing that people don't like about this team is

Derek Carr, a quarterback. Which I don't, I think Derek Carr, we've talked about it a number of times on this podcast, but I think he's a little bit under. not saying he's elite but I think he can definitely run an offense for sure um nine and a half is it's hard to get to double digits I think they have the easiest strength of schedule so they have that going for them they're in a weak division 10 wins is is just a lot to to say for a team that you know they they do they do have a lot of pieces I'd say their defense is probably their weak point, which is weird

that they have Derek Carr and not a lot of household names on offense. Chris Alave looked awesome as a rookie. I would like to see him be more than just like a deep threat though, I think, because that can be very volatile

week to week and season to season. There's been very few receivers in this league that have solely thrived on being just awesome deep threats like Deshawn Jackson kind of. I think Alave could You know, if he can kind of develop as, you know, a better route runner outside of deep throws and be kind of a just, I'm going to get you first downs guy too. Yeah.

Then we're really talking. They're still counting on Michael Thomas, which is amazing. But, you know. Find someone who trusts you as much as the saints trust Michael Thomas to play in a season. Yeah. And it's wild. tight end is kind of a mix of guys with joan johnson kind of playing a big slot role more than tight end foster moreau is there um they traded adam troutman right he is now yep yep trotman got traded so it's foster morrow and joan

johnson for the most ball and then they've got three running backs with jamal williams uh alvin camara potentially missing some games and um kendray miller that they drafted in the third round so not not like a lot of guys that you know of, but I kind of still feel better about it than what they have on defense. Yeah. Yeah. And even, you know, in the receiving corps, Rashid Shaheed came on last year and started to.

He just feels like the next Deonté Hardy, though. He did. That is exactly the role that he failed. It was literally just like throw it deep to him. And he can outrun coverage and he made a lot of good plays on deep balls. And so that is where I think that, you know, getting Chrysalave to be more of a, not that you need them to be a possession receiver, but be able to provide that a little bit more with the emergence of Shaheed

because having two deep threat only guys is going to limit your offense pretty quick. But it is for the first time, like you said, it is their defense where you kind of get a little bit nervous. It's a defense that's just getting older. They didn't. They added Brian Bersie in the first round, but other than that, and then, sorry, they also added Isaiah Foskey. So one, you know, first round pick onto that defensive line. And then Foski is a guy that, you know, I think they took in the third round, second round.

And so, but it's a defense that overall is getting older. I mean, Cam Jordan is getting older. DeMario Davis is getting older. Tyron Matthew, like a lot of these guys. are hitting that, you know, other side of their career peak. And so how does that hold up throughout the season? Because you could see a team that's going to get into a lot of shootouts and the potentially, because I don't see it.

I can see this defense being like the New Orleans defenses of, you know, the late 2000s, early 2010s where it's just, you know, getting gashed, quite a bit because you don't see a lot of areas where they're going to get pressure. I mean, they lost Marcus Davenport and didn't really do a ton to replace him. And like I said, they have pulsed in a Divo opposite March on Lattimore and then they sell Bradley Robey in the slot. It's not the most reliable secondary. And so this, I mean, I can see a team where I can see this where they get into a lot.

They're a fun team to watch because they get into a lot of offensive shootouts with teams. Just with, I think they have some, they have explosiveness on their offense. You know, if Kamara can be there for most of the season, we'll see what happens. But, you know, they have a receiving court that can go downfield. And Derek Carr's not afraid to throw the ball downfield. Yeah, they have, they've really messed up on the defensive line over the past decade or so outside of Cam Jordan. They whiff on the Marcus Davenport pick. Trey Henderson, they let walk and now he's a stud for Cincinnati.

At least they seem to know that and they're trying to fix it. Brian Brisei pick at 29 overall, I think is a fine pick. Isaiah Foskey in the second round at 40 overall is a little rich. But at least they know this and they're trying to address it because, yeah, they do not. Outside of Cam Jordan, who is getting old now, it is, you know, I would be surprised if somebody that isn't a New Orleans Saints fan knows their current projected starting defensive line of Nathan Shepard, Kaelin Saunders, and Carl Grannerson. Which Nathan Sanders and Nathan Shepard they brought in this year. And so like they, because they lost on David on Yamada and they lost, you know, like we said, Marcus Davenport.

So this is a team that lost guys at key positions along the defensive line in. didn't do a ton behind hoping that these rookies develop to replace that talent. Yep, exactly. And then, yeah, you mentioned the secondary. I think Latimore, Marcus May, Tyron Matthew is a good starting point. But it gets like they have just routinely gotten shredded by the other slot and outside corner that they roll out there. And it's a rotation of guys at times between Paulson Addebo, Bradley Robey, Alante Taylor. I think flashed at times.

Yeah, he did look good. But also had moments where he absolutely got shredded by opposing teams. But, I mean, granted, that's going to happen from teams avoiding Latimer to some extent. So can't kill him too much, I guess. But, yeah, I'm a little bit worried about the defense and them getting consistent pressure, kind of like what we talked about with the Falcons a lot. Yeah. I mean, pretty much every team in this event, I mean, not pretty much.

Every team in this division and defensive pressure finished in the bottom 10. So these were teams, like all the teams in the AFC South, New Orleans included, were not great at creating pressure and quite a few of them didn't do a ton to change that. And that includes New Orleans Saints. And not even to mention that they also are changing defensive coordinators. They brought in Joe Woods to be their defensive coordinator, who I personally was not a huge fan of in Cleveland. I think that, you know, they struggled in the secondary with Joe Woods.

They had a lot of seeming communication problems and gave up a lot of big plays. And so getting a defense that is worse than the Cleveland Browns top to bottom in the roster, how does he, how does he like mitigate that? How does he make sure that these big plays don't happen against them? Because that's kind of what they're staring down the barrel of is, you know, quarterback's having a lot of time to throw and, you know, you can only ask your court, as good as their secondary is and, you know, in spots, you can only cover guys for so long. And I think that that's where I'm most concerned with this team is how are they going to, you know,

how are they going to stop offenses? Because I can see this offense putting up 26, 28 points a game if Derek Carr kind of revitalizes himself a little bit and bounces back from the nightmare season that it was in Oakland, or in Las Vegas last year. And, you know, I can see him producing with this offense and producing with these weapons. It's just a matter of can their defense get their offense back on the field. Yeah, it's never great when you're hiring a guy to be your defensive coordinator

that was just fired when he had probably pretty, yeah, he definitely had better personnel in Cleveland. 100% in the Saints. So not great. So I, so I, so the ceiling. for this team, while maybe a little unrealistic, is like an 11-win team, I feel like. Yeah, playing in this division. There's a world where they get there and they're, I mean, we've seen Derek Carr lead Raiders

teams to double-digit win seasons before. So I think they are at worst competing for a wild card spot and at best maybe a, you know, could they be anything more than a third seed in the end? F. Probably not, but that, but, you know, maybe a third seed can be their ceiling. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, like they do have, like we said, the AFC South and then they get to play their own division.

I mean, the division's not super strong. The AFC South is not super strong. That's potentially 10 good chances. It wins right there. And so this is, it's more so a testament to who we think they're going to play than I think it is a testament to what the overall build of this team is. But, you know, this, in a sense, I mean, bringing in Derek Carr, this feels like, feels similar to like an Indianapolis Colts move where it's a team that's not, that has talent

and spots is not trying to hit the reset button, but it's just trying to hit the revamp button and hope that it holds over. And hoping that Derek Carr. was in, you know, not, it was in a bad scenario, which he was at times. They didn't, you know, the Raiders didn't have a great offensive line and the same time a better offensive line. So he's going to have more time to throw. And his receiving core overall while he loses Devante Adams, I think, I think has a little bit more talent overall at, you know, when healthy than the Raiders had last year. It's, it comes down to if their bet on

Derek Carr, if they pull it off, if they give them a comfortable situation, and then, you know, if their defense can finish, I think if their defense can finish even in the top 20, it doesn't have to be great, but like top 20 to 22 and not be, you know, completely terrible. I think they have a good shot at double digit wins. Yeah, I agree with that. All right, let's move on to the last team in this division, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the last quarterback change of the division in Baker Mayfield, as far as we can tell, going to be the start of this year, over under, a win total of six and a half. Feels kind of right to me. I don't have a strong lean on this one, I don't think. I mean, my gut says under just because of the quarterback situation. But if you look at

what's around him. The defense, they were kind of held together. They really only lost Murphy Bunning. They lost Akeem Hicks who didn't play a tonne last year anyway. So like overall, this team is or this defense is held together. And really the offenses as well, they didn't, they lost Donovan Smith on the offensive line. And then they drafted Cody Mock to, you know, come in and play offensive line, but it's a team that is built to be able to perform well, but I just, we've seen enough from Baker Mayfield these last few years to realize that they have a very defined ceiling with him at quarterback, I think. Yeah, yeah, there's definitely not a high.

I mean, maybe there's a world where Baker can get kind of close to that one season he had in Cleveland with weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and they they can get to nine wins or something like that like I don't think that's too crazy no I don't think so either like I feel better about that than the panthers getting to nine wins but yeah the floor is also they definitely have the widest spread the floor is also like two wins three wins yeah yeah where a lot of the other teams I think that it was it was within like a plus or minus two wins I think this is plus this could be plus or minus four or five. This is a team that could win two games because, you know, their defense is getting

a little bit older. And, you know, Baker Mayfield is what he is. And they don't have a good, like Rashad White doesn't pan out and they don't have a good run game. And just all, you know, things fall apart all around. I think that that's a reasonable scenario. And then you also, like we said, you could see a scenario where Baker Mayfield plays within himself and he utilizes the weapons around him and they have a semi-decent

offensive line that can keep Mayfield clean. They have a chance to kind of overperform what they're supposed to do. Yep. Yeah, the defense, I think, is trying to decide if I want to say this is the best defense in the division. the Panthers are probably maybe slightly ahead, but it's really close. I mean, the core of Vita Vaya, Klajcacanxi, who they drafted in the first round, Shaq Barrett on the defensive line to generate pressure, I think it is awesome.

Only the Panthers have anything close to that. They have the best linebacker duoes in the league with Devin White and Levanti David. Bringing back Jamal Dean is huge for the second. secondary. Carlton Davis is still there. I'm not too worried about the Sean Murphy Bunting loss. I never thought he was that great anyway. I think them playing Zion McCollum or D. Delaney in the slot is totally fine and can get the job done. Or even Antoine Winfield who they've done in the past with that with. I think that's totally, they can get by with that. So yeah, the defense is going to be good. They just need Baker not to give the game away.

So their only major coaching change is they bring in Dave Canellis, the OC, from Seattle. Any, so very different offense, I think, than what, you know, we've seen Brian Blackwich and the Bucks do. And then Seattle is done. Which, I mean, looking at their team, you know, Seattle ran a lot of 12 personnel, a lot of heavier personnel. That's, you know, kind of what they'd like to do, get two receivers on the field. and, you know, play action and then, like, Bombadip, we saw Gino Smith air the ball out constantly last year. I wonder if they'll do a little bit of a neutered version of that.

They don't, like, the Tampa Bay tight ends are okay. They've got KDOT and then co-keefed, and they drafted Payne Durham. Not the greatest. Yeah, not a 12 personnel team. they're definitely an 11 personnel team. So how is Canal is going to switch over to that and do more 11 personnel? And the run game isn't going to be as potent as it was in Seattle either, where they had Rashad Penny when he was available.

And then Kenneth Walker last year, it was a team that it was able to kind of lean a little bit more on the run game. Tampa Bay has Rashad White and Chase Edmonds. So, you know, not even like the same style of backs. Right. Because of those, like Chris Carson, Rashob, Penny, Kenneth Walker, all like this kind of hard runner, bigger back guys. And none of these running backs, Kishon Vaughn even, also like smaller guy. Rashad White's probably the closest to being something like they had in Seattle.

But Chase Edmonds and Kishon Vaughn are definitely not. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if this is a team that leans heavily on play action. I think that that's where Baker Mayfield has kind of shown to excel when he does is moving him around, not making him do the straight drop back game. That's where he struggled his entire career, forcing him to just drop straight back, read a defense and make a playoff of that. I think that they're going to get him in motion a lot. I think that that's probably a primary reason of why they brought Canales in is to institute a good play action game because that's, you know, not, it wasn't a huge staple with them, you know, in the prior years with Brady. Play action was not a huge staple.

It was more comfortable for Brady to kind of just drop straight back and, you know, get it to the, to the, to the, a team that had a lot of weapons throughout his tenure. And I think that, and the offensive line is still decent, but took a step back. And so I think that they're going to, like I said, they're going to lead on play action to kind of mitigate the pressure that was getting to Brady last year. and I think we'll get to Mayfield a little bit more this year. And it's just about, you know, getting him easy throws because that's what Baker Mayfield needs at this point his career. Yeah. How they use Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be interesting as well.

So this was, I was doing some deep-diving using the Data Suite tool the other day. And I got down this rabbit hole with Chris Godwin, which I think is really, really, interesting. So 25% of Chris Godwin's targets came on design plays last year, which is a large percentage. He ranked 30th in target share at 20% overall. He had a yards per out run on those design throws of 4.86. That is really high. That's crazy. Of a yards per out run. If you remove the design targets, his target share falls to 19%. So not really a big difference, but it does drop him from like 30th overall to 43rd overall. all, but his yards per hour run falls down to 1.84, which is behind guys like Mikal Hardman,

Kendrick Warren, Rondell Moore. That is a huge difference. Seattle basically does not do these design throws to the receivers. They went through 35 design throws total, which was third lowest in the league. Both DK and Lockett were under 5% of their targets being designed. So, like, there is no signal of them running, like, we saw Brady constantly do these little, you know, design throws the Godwin, especially around the goal line. They would do them all the time. Like, that is just, that is not going to be a part of this offense. So I'm curious what that means for a guy like Chris Godham, who I think at one time everyone thought was like ascending as one of the best receivers in the league. and then things have kind of been like maybe it's more manufactured than we think,

and he's just kind of a guy. I think he's more than just a guy, but those numbers do not make me feel great about that argument. Yeah, and like you said, I think a lot of it is on the trust that was built up between Brady and Godwin. And Godwin is good, you know, he is good at winning in space. He's good at, you know, beating his guy in a short space, getting open over the middle of the field and settling.

down and then making, you know, a play after that. And I don't know if they'll play that as much because I don't know if Baker Mayfield's the guy that you want running an offense like that, where it is the, you know, kind of intrinsic trust of both the receiver and the quarterback to be on the same page and read the defense the same. I don't know if you can lean on Baker Mayfield to do that. I mean, I know you can't lean on him the way that you can lean on Brady to do that. but even to a lesser degree, I don't think that he can match that, and that's his play style.

Yeah, Baker had a completion percentage over expectation on design throws of negative 8.2% and 85 pass a rating. So not great numbers. Not something he, not something that's ever been of a part of an offense that he ran last year. Right. And so, yeah, I think it. It's going to be an interesting team to watch because, like we said, the spread is so big on the outcomes of what they can be. I think that they still finish under. I think that there's just a lot, there's a lot of missing pieces here.

Despite their defense, you know, probably being second best in the division, it's just there's a lot of holes here that at kind of pivotal spots that make it. it just I don't think that they're a team that wins. I don't think they get to six games. I think that they will keep, I think there'll be another team that keeps themselves in games. I'd like, again, their defense isn't going to get completely gashed a lot, but can they,

you know, opposite to the New Orleans Saints, can they keep the offense on the field consistently? Can they manufacture a run game with, you know, Rashad White being their primary back? Yep. Yeah, the,

the, six and a half, like, feels like the median projection just because, of the wide range of outcomes like we talked about. Yeah. Yeah. My ceiling outcome is like nine wins and they're competing for a wild card spot or even if the division sucks. But yeah, the floor is two, three wins.

Yep. And so, yeah, that wraps the NFC South. And so like I said, we'll continue doing this leading up to the season. Next week I want to do the, I want to jump right to the AFC South and kind of do what it really is kind of the mirror of what this. division is on the AFC side. But, you know, overall, it's an exciting time. Training camp's about to start soon. We're about to get like full on football, like heavy here in a couple weeks.

And look out for, I cannot stress it enough of how much you're going to want to play around with the data suite come next week. Like, utilize the free trial and use it for everything that it is and realize how helpful it's going to be come this season. Yep, yeah. I can't recommend it enough. It's going to change the way football data is accessed for everybody in the world. So definitely get in there.

Yeah, we can't stress how much that this is like a tool like this used to be impossible to get for like the average fan. And now it's available to the average fan because of what we built. And it's awesome. Yep, for $50. ridiculous. All right, Chris, I will, I don't know if we'll do, if we'll have you, we'll probably have you on again soon. I want you for the NFC East pod when we come along that way.

So that for sure. Thank you, everyone for listening, and we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com. I'm