Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | NFL Awards and Yardage Leaders + the Biggest Conspiracy of 2024

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Age Curves Article By Ryan Heath - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out#/ Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Thinking About Thinking Substack - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/lets-think-about-thinking FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome into the best bet show at FantasyPoints.com and Fantasy Points Now, the Fantasy Points Podcast Network, whatever you want to call it. My name's Joe Dullen. I'm with Tom Brawley, and we will very soon be welcoming in the world's worst gambler, good friend Trey, as we are now, guys, eight days away from National Football League football, all these futures that we're talking about. They're becoming presence because the league is. about to kick back up and start. And we wanted to do one kind of final look at the awards market, the statistical market,

stat leaders market as we head into the 2024 NFL season. So we're going to kick it off discussing some MVP, maybe a little coach prop, rookie of the year. Tom Brawley, you've been looking at this stuff all offseason. Look, Good friend, Tray is the world's worst gambler.

I might be the world's most inattentive gambler because the wagers that I have that I'm looking at right now, those are stuff from like today. You've been looking at this for months, but you know where the market is sitting right now as we head into the 2024 NFL season. So T-Brow, MVP award. What's going on here?

It feels like to me, every person on planet Earth has a wager in for Jared Goff to win the 2024 NFL MVP. Yeah, this one is one that's definitely moved a little bit. bit. I track this stuff throughout the year. And golf was somebody that started plus 4,000, plus 3,500, depending on where you're looking at. And now I see the best number for him is around $2,500 at Fandall, I believe. So if you want to get on that. I know Scott Barrett, that was one of his favorite bets. He gave that out to our subs. So that was one that has certainly moved a little

bit. It kind of sets up pretty nice for them, doesn't it, Joe? I mean, all those games inside the dome, you know, one of the best most explosive offenses, you know, they're going to be right around the league leaders and points per game. So it's all kind of adding up here. All they got to do is beat out the Packers and the Chicago Bears right now to win that NFC North, which is going to be easier said than done. That's going to set up to be a very tough division. But That golf prop is, you know, certainly gone down here a little bit. It's as low as 18 to 1 at this point. So certainly a lot of movement on that bet.

So Tom, if you look at their schedule, you can make the easy argument that the lions have really only one true cold weather game. They play in Chicago on December 22nd. Their game in Green Bay is at the beginning of November, which, hey, look, snow in November in Green Bay. stranger things have certainly happened, but it's also possible they get a pretty brisk 45, 50 degree day that day. So really only one true cold weather game for Jared Goff. We know historically he has struggled more in cold and in the outdoors and on the road, but it sets up just about as well as it possibly can for Jared Goff. I mean, but if I'm sitting here today, there ain't no way I'm making that wager if I don't have that ticket already.

I can still get to a 25 door. I don't think that number isn't too bad. But yeah, the 35 to 40 to 1 days are gone. I also say for that bet, they play a, it's right around week 17, as we know at fantasy football. This is like the game that everybody is lining up to stack all their players in their bestball drafts. It's the Lions versus the 49ers. This game could have massive implications for NFC seating, for the MVP race. I believe it's a Monday night game as well.

So it's a standalone game all by itself. So just adding that into the factor that it could be a make or break game for both of these teams. And we won our court. You know, if we got a ticket and he's live, I mean, that could certainly stamp that that bet. So like that one a lot that it's on Monday night football, you know, the marquee game of the week. And in week 17, it could really, because, you know, we know these week 18 games. They're completely hit or miss. If they're irrelevant or not.

they play all the games at the same time on 1 o'clock 4 o'clock in week 18 so it's really hard to have a game that stands out that isn't like on the Sunday night game so that that too adding adding to the why we like golf here gets that extra game gets that game against the 49ers on Monday night football week 17 well let's flip it to the other guy here let's flip it to Brock Purdy in that game purdy is shorter odds across the board than Jared Gough to win the MVP I I think the best number you can get for him is 18. It's as low as 15 for Brock Purdy. So pretty much across the board, shorter odds than Jared Gough.

There's just one problem. Again, we are recording this on the 27th. So by the time you listen to this on the 28th or the 29, things could change. But as of right now, we're sitting here. And Brock Purdy doesn't have his leading receiver from last year. And he doesn't have his left tackle from last year. And the left tackle from last year is, The bigger problem, in my opinion, T-Bro, because Trent Williams, you can make the argument is the best offensive linemen in the NFL.

And listen to the numbers for Brock Ferdie when Trent Williams was out last year. Yeah, this obviously Scott Barrett, he had the rate stats as well. But with Trent Williams healthy last year, 28 touchdown passes and two interceptions, with Trent Williams out, three touchdowns to nine interceptions. Now, that's not going to help Brock Purdy beat the system quarterback. I guess people kind of use it as an epithet for him, even though every quarterback's a system quarterback. I don't know if I'm getting to the window with Mr. Purdy there, Tom, with the short of odds and Jerry.

Yeah, like last year was the time to get in on Purdy. It's actually kind of played out like how we're describing here of this Detroit game in week 17. This was the Christmas Day game. Everybody was looking forward to it. was the battle of the NFC team versus the AFS, the top team in the AFC. It was kind of Perthi's chance to put an exclamation point on his MVP candidate of C. And it ended up going the other way. Lamar Jackson comes in to, I want to say candlestick.

But they come in there. Levi's. Levi's, thank you. I love that you brought a candlestick. I'm going old skull there. Yeah. But party through the four interceptions in the game. and Lamar Jackson kind of comes in there and steals the MVP award.

So, yeah, I'm not a big fan of his odds right now, 16 to 1, especially, as you said, Ayuk potentially might get off to a slow start if he's even on the team at all. Trent Williams will see how that situation, you know, pans out. I have a feeling that they'll work something out with both of those guys. But, yeah, can I give a couple of that I have already been on? odds aren't great anymore, but. Yeah, give a couple to me to me because I have one that I really like and I'm going to, and I took it to the window here.

But let's see what you, what you bet. Well, I did bet Jalen Hertz earlier this year. Mr. Eagles there. There's no value there. Yeah, not anymore. He's 14 to 1 now. I got him at 18 to 1 earlier this earlier in the way earlier in the off season. But I think people kind of forget that he was leading, you know, the leading candidate to win the MVP award.

before everything kind of went completely downhill for that Eagles team last year. So just everything that they've done is, you know, to cater around him. They go out and get Jahan Dotson last week, Kellan Moore's offenses, you know, put up major points down in Dallas. Last year, it kind of fell apart with the Chargers. But everything's kind of lined up for a bounceback campaign for Jalen Hertz. I guess the only concern would be that he, you know, doesn't get as many rushing touchdowns anymore with Seekwon Berkeley there.

But if the Eagles bounce back from a tough ending to last year and are in contention for the top seed in the NFC, I think Jalen Hertz will be right in the mix. I got that 18 to 1, but there are some 14-1s out there. Yeah. Well, let me tell you the one I went to the window with. We've actually already mentioned him in this segment here. And I found it to be the best value on the board.

It's last year's MVP. Lamar Jackson's 20 to 1 at Bed MGM. He has the same odds as Aaron Rogers, who's coming off at Torn Achilles. He's got shorter odds than Jared Gop. He's got shorter odds than Brock Purdy. And he's a two-time MVP. And I think you build in voter fatigue into that, of course. But, I mean, that hasn't stopped Patrick Mahomes from being the heavy favorite to win the award.

We're not even talking about, I mean, I'm just not betting somebody at plus 500 to win the MVP. It's just not happening. But I went to the window with Lamar Jackson at 20 to one time. He's a two-time MVP, so we know he can do it. And for me, he's got shorter odds than players. He probably should be ahead of. So I like Lamar Jackson at Bet MGM at 20 to 1. I think that's a great number for Lamar, especially if the Ravens.

And look, I know they're a polarizing team. Some out there are fading the Ravens this year, hard schedule, hard division. Yeah, I'm a little anti-Baldimore. That's not just because I'm a Steelers, man. I do think there's some little bit, everything kind of broke right for them last year and do worry about the offensive line. Derek Henry coming in and stealing some of that thunder for Lamar Jackson. So I get why it's a little bit lower.

But yeah, I mean, this guy has won it twice already. I wouldn't be surprised for five games into the season. And we're like, oh, we could have had 20 to 1 odds on Lamar Jackson. Now he's down to 10 to 1 to win the MVP award. So, you have no qualms about that one at 20 to 1. We got to keep the lights on here, T, bro. So let's go pay some bills. And we'll be back and talk rookie of the year.

All right, Tom, rookie of the year. Let me tell you something. I'm going to be honest. I have no idea how to wager on defensive rookie year, which probably tells me that there's some advantages here. But we can go down the board for favorites to win the offensive rookie year, which is what I think people listening to Fantasy Football Podcast Network are going to be more interested in.

But here are the favorites, okay? We got Caleb Williams, the best odds you can get are plus 150. Jaden Daniels, the best you can get plus 600. Marvin Harrison, the best you can get plus 700. Bo Nix plus 1,200. Drake May, the best you can get is plus 1,800. And he might play sooner. That number has plummeted because he might play sooner rather than later based on the preseason.

And let's just go to Malik Neighbors at plus 1,500. Those are the favorites in the market. Of those, which has been the one that you've really kind of gravitated to, or at least some wagers that you've made in this market. Yeah, I made a wager on Jaden Daniels right around draft time. He opened around 14 to 1. That was one I gave out. It was actually draft weekend.

So unfortunately, that number is long gone. I couldn't believe it whenever it was out there. I even wrote in my article at the time, I'm looking back at it now that these odds should be around plus 600 to plus 700. We're right around that plus 600 mark now. So I probably would probably would. stay away from those lines now, but I would probably pivot to maybe one of these other quarterbacks. This award isn't necessarily a quarterback-driven award. We do see some wide

receivers and running backs mix into it, but with so many quarterbacks getting starting jobs this year, I think it might be best to, I kind of see this Bo Nix, 11 to 1 number. That's intriguing. I think we saw Russell Wilson, who was a disaster the last couple of years, but They were, you know, kind of frisky last year under Sean Payton. And he finishes the QB14 in fantasy production. So I don't think Russell Wilson can play very much anymore. So if he gets the quarterback that he wants into his system and they still have some good weapons out there. So in that, AFC West is still wide open besides the Chiefs.

They can easily overtake the chargers and Raiders and finishing second. second place and be right around 500. So if I was looking at the market now, that would probably be my lean. Go look for a little bit longer shot here with Bowdo Nix at 11 to 1. Certainly has a lot of playing experience under his belt. So Tom, I actually was looking at this and I was like, by the way, I do want to throw out there how Tom gave away the 14 to 1. Tom, you broke it down on our last best bet show, how it goes for fantasy point subscribers. Use code score more for 10% off. When you make a wager, the first place you put it before you even put it in a paywalled article is to our subscriber discord.

Yes. So, yeah, if you want immediate bets, make sure you're in our fantasy points discord. I always drop it in there. Then I put it, you know, right away into an article. But, you know, those that's, those will be the spots where you find the bets first. So, you know, we'll give some nuggets out on here, but it's stuff that might be a little, little old. a little dated because that's just the way that, you know, we're not recording in real time whenever we're giving out bets. So if you want to get bets whenever we're first given them out,

make sure you're on our Discord and checking the fantasy points, best bets articles up on the site, you know, especially with football season coming along. We're going to be posting every day bets every day here. Now, when I bring up a bet, I'll let you know if I've gotten to the window with this or if I haven't. My focus on this time was maybe some more. long shots that I can talk myself into. I will tell you right now, I just found these maybe a little interesting. I have not gone to the window with these rookie of the year, offensive rookie of year bets. I see one that I kind of like now because this is a guy I've been, he's rising up my fantasy draft board. So I'll see if you, uh, you mentioned him as a long shot.

So I'm going to like here's, here's what, I was just trying to create a narrative where like, man, could I talk myself into that? Xavier Worthy at 22 to 1 is, is one that I feel like, I could talk myself into. Obviously, if he makes a couple of splash plays. And the problem is all of these quarterbacks, it feels like you have to have a mediocre to poor season for this to hit, given that there were, what, six quarterbacks taken in the first round? So it does feel like that's a longer shot.

And I mean, and I'm talking about the dart throw of dart throws here, only because it's 100 to 1, Jalen Wright. Okay, okay, yeah. Like, you could maybe see a scenario. You know, A. Chan and Mostert obviously had injury problems. Mostert for his entire career, A. Chan had him last year. And he's just, he's fast and he and he fits in that Miami offense. It's 100 to 1.

I haven't gotten to the window with it because honestly, it'd be throwing 10 bucks down the drain, I feel like. But you could, you could conceive a narrative where that happens. It's just way harder for anybody but a quarterback to win in in a year. when there were six quarterbacks drafted in the first round, he really does feel like at least one of these guys is going to play well enough to win. Yeah, that's that's my feeling too. And I broke it down in an article that I released right around draft time that eight times in the last 10 years, it's been a top 12 pick.

And that's, you know, we have six quarterbacks that were drafted inside the top 12. So it's likely going to come from one of these top 12 draft picks. But I'll just throw this one out there too. This guy, I've been really one. forming up to him. Brian Thomas from Jacksonville. The buzz is, you know, it's really percolating down there. Todd Bulls was raving about him after a joint practice. And he hasn't made too many plays during the preseason, but when he has, I mean, they've been big plays. So we know Trevor Lawrence wants to attack downfield. And if the Jaguars get back into the playoffs and they surprise in the

AFC South, I think Brian Thomas could be a big part of that. So I'm seeing 50 to ones on him at Draft Kings. So that's a decent long shot bet. He's a first round pick. I mean, this was guy that was, you know, at times kind of considered maybe in that top three, but he kind of separated was kind of in his tier of his own in this draft class, in this wide receiver class. So, but extremely talented and could become the number one wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence

offense. That was a longer shot that I liked at 50 to 1. Now, it does feel, though, Tom, like if you want to bet longer shots in Rookie of the Year, it feels like defensive rookie of the year is maybe a little bit of a better market to dive into, especially since, you know, there is so few defensive players taken at the top of the draft this year. So it feels like just a much more wide open market. Let's look at the favorites, by the way. Defensive Rookie of the Year, Latu, Latu, the best number you can get is 500.

For Dallas Turner, the best number you can get is $450. Jared Verse, the best number you can get is plus $1,100. And Byron Murphy, the best number you can get is plus $1,300. Then Terriott Arnold, Quinyan Mitchell, Chop Robinson. Those are the next three, and those are the only other three guys who are under 20 to 1 to win defensive rookie of the year. This feels like a wide open race to me. Yeah, just a little bit of background on this award.

Pass rushers have dominated the last four or five years. Four out of, one out of the last five years. Sauce Gardner in 2022, but otherwise it's been Micah Parsons, Chase Young, Nick Bosa, and Will Anderson last year. So that was one thing.

I was looking for a pass rusher here. So that's one thing. And they typically, the award winner comes from inside the first round. Nine out of the last 10 years. So let's see. Pass rusher, first round pick.

I didn't want to go to the top of the board with Latu, Latu and Dallas Turner. So I looked to a Penn State guy. Penn State's Chop Robinson, selected by Miami. I like his opportunity. We got Bradley Chubb and Jalen Phillips coming back from, devastating leg injuries.

Could be slow out of the gates here. I think Chub may have even been placed on the IR here. so could have a big impact early in the season. And if he builds a little bit of momentum, they're not going to take him out of the lineup as a first round pick. And so I think he's going to have a rule no matter what. And as he said, Joe, teams waited until 15 picks into the draft to select the defensive player.

So that tells me that this maybe draft class wasn't very good on the defensive side of the ball. So makes more sense to go look for a long shot. So I got him at 25 to 1 when I gave it out on our Discord Now it's down to 17.1. I still kind of like that. There have been some pretty positive reports on his training camp. So Chop Robinson has a little bit of a longer shot. He meets a lot of the criteria as a pass at, you know, pass rusher and as a first round pick. So let's let's roll the dice with chop Robinson. I know good friend Trey is like champing at the bit to like to shoehorn in his god awful bets into our faces here, Tom.

But before we get to him, I do want to get to. to the coaching market. Now, the reason we haven't discussed this heavily is some states offer these bets. Some states don't because it's not an on-field kind of thing in terms of competition because it's a decision that somebody can make and essentially break the markets themselves, which is why Vegas itself you can't bet on NFL draft. And I believe you can't bet on NFL draft in Pennsylvania where you are. No, no, there's, It's not a whole lot of states that offer the NFL draft and these Coach of the Year props. Yeah.

So I don't even have access to these odds. So I'm going to have to listen to your odds here, Joe. Okay. And, you know, maybe I'll pick out one or two that I like. I know we know good friend Trey likes Shane Steichen from last episode. Yeah, he likes him to win Coach of the Year. So let's look at Coach of the Year. Matt Eber Flues, plus 900.

Jim Harbaugh. These were opening odds, by the way. Plus 1,000. Rahim Morris plus 1100. Matt LaFlor plus 14. Domeca Ryan's plus 14, Shane Stuyken plus 15, Jonathan Gannon plus 16, Robert Salah plus 18, Dave Canales plus 18. But to show you how fickle this market is, so many of the guys who are favored to be coach of the year are also high on the board to be the first coach fired.

Because the coach of the year is what? You expect this team to be either mediocre or bad, so the coach could be fired. So Matt Eberflus is the favorite. to win or at least was the favorite to win coach of the year on the opening line. And he's currently the second favorite to be first coach fired. Robert Sala is one of the favorites to be coach of the year, obviously is one of the favorites to be the first coach fired. So it's a very fickle market. And, you know, coach of the year almost never goes to the guy I think it should go to. It always goes to the guy who has the team that's better.

So in my opinion, the best bet on the board is Dave Canales. the problem is due to at 18 to 1, but do the Panthers have to make the playoffs for that to happen? Yeah, and that might mean I'm winning the AFC South too. So maybe that's just the better bet. Maybe just go look at, you know, the pan. If you want to beat that Dave Canales, maybe just look at their to win AFC South odds,

which I think we're like 12 to 1 or 51. Yeah, yeah, that would be a little combination. I honestly do like Shane Stuygens odds the best out of this group. In that like, you know, 14 to 16 to 1 range, just as a team that, you know, showed improvement last year, get back Anthony Richardson, everybody's just kind of penciled in.

Domeco Ryans and the Houston Texans to win this division. So I do really like that one. Maybe a longer shot is a, but I do think they could be pretty decent as maybe Mike McDonald with Seattle, a team that was a playoff team just two years ago, kind of fell off a little bit last year,

but they're still pretty talented. That NFC. It doesn't look as formidable. We touched on the 49ers issues with getting some players under contract and getting them on the field. And we've seen, you know, the markets have seen some movement against the 49ers, their win total and some of their props here the last couple of days here because we're starting to get close to the season.

And betters are getting a little worried about the Trent Williams, Brandon Ayuk's situation. So maybe one of those teams that could take advantage of that is Mike McDonnell. and the Seattle Seahawks. So those were, I do like the Shane Steichen one, though. That is definitely my favorite one out of this group. Well, good friend Trey is absolutely taunting me. If you've seen me looking at my phone,

it's because he keeps texting me, reminding me that we are contractually obligated to bring him on to the show. So Tom, we're going to take a quick break. And then unfortunately, good friend Trey, the world's world gambler, we'll join the best, best program. Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget Online Casino is live, bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips.

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The world's worst gambler. Good friend Trey. Trey, you're joining us. here you uh laid your indianapolis colt slop on us last week uh i'm sure you worked up a hell of a bet uh this week but uh first of for how'd your weekend go well the weekend was good you know i i was in the lab a little bit i also got out and uh played a little bit at golf actually so uh was was around the town i got a question for you guys uh right off the rip here what's that you do you remember like patrick ewing's shoes like that he used to play in yeah yeah yeah do you ever You ever remember, like, seeing people wearing those and how bulky and, you know, kind of crazy they were? So, like, half of the guys on the golf course nowadays are wearing, like, 10-pound high-top basketball golf shoes.

What's the deal with that? What's going on there? I don't know. It seems to be overdone. I don't need that much ankle support, you know. Yeah, I prefer the sneaker kind of feel and look. I want to be comfortable on the golf course. They kind of looked like if, like, 80-year-old Jack Nicholson got up from the,

the sideline and went and put on some LeBron's and like join the Lakers it just doesn't you know like it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me you can't be that guy on the golf course so i got some good news for our listeners out there i found this company called scone right and they make golf shoes they look just like regular shoes they're stylish okay they're not too loud all right you could literally wear them to a wedding i'm not shitting you could wear them to a wedding uh they're unbelievable super affordable uh hit them up shook some hands kiss some babies you know how it goes and i got a pair on the way and also get this they gave me a code fantasy points for our listeners to use 15% off and already amazing amazing price over there fellas you do not want to look like vanilla ice out

on the links okay sk o n i dot com code fantasy points worth every penny i'm not i mean fellas this is the deal of the century but i got a pair on the way and uh i'm ready to uh to look good but nice i got to check that out i'm running out of time to golf here are you going to are you going to Are you going to break 100 with regularity? Because, well, if I'm not, which I don't, I need to at least look good on the course. Yeah, that's right. No, it's all about how you look. You look good, play good.

But you know what else? My bet of the week that I've cooked up here could pay for about 30 pairs of golf fuse if I can get it done. So you want to know what it is? Oh, please. Please lay it on me. Let's just get it out of the way. All right. First, a question.

Okay. What do we know about the NSC South as far as quarterbacks are concerned? What do we know? It's terrible. The best quarterback in the division is Kurt Cousins. The best quarterback in the division who's actually played for his team is Baker Mayfield. That's right. This is what I know, okay?

Baker Mayfield, locked in as a starter, right? That guy's starting. Derek Carr, for now, locked in as a starter, right? Bryce Young for now, locked in as a starter. why has there not been any news about Kurt Cousins? Oh, God. Where's the news then? I just saw one report like he scrambled once in practice and people were like, oh, he's back.

Oh, yeah, yeah. Listen to this. This is true. Okay. I've been in the lab. I did the research. We have not heard from anyone not named Kurt Cousins in like a month about him being ready to play week one.

nobody the only person who said he would be ready week one was kirk cousins and that was two weeks ago and that was before the falcons shut down pennix for the rest of the preseason put my my wind horse fingers up why would they do that why why would they shut michael pennix down for preseason oh all right all right let me let me first answer that question it's because the falcons are stupid tray like that's that is the that is the that is the ockham's razor here the falcons uh the falcons are just did not think this entire process through. And by the way, I'll have you know, Brett Whitefield said Michael Penix looked like a baby giraffe taking snaps from under center.

So it's not like he's a polished product here. But let's let's hear what this wonderful bet. And Michael Pennix also played like 10 seasons at like Indiana Washington. He doesn't need any more reps. He's played as much as like Bo Nix and all these other guys. You mentioned Brett Whitefield. I'm glad you mentioned that because Brett Whitefield, if you listen to first read last week, also mentioned our guy, Dr. Edwin Porris.

and Edwin said there's absolutely a chance Kurt Cousin could be dealing with some stiffness and he also said it's possibly he could be dealing with some atrophy. I'm not 100% sure what that even is, but I can tell you, boys, it does not sound good. So let me flip you some numbers here. Right now, okay, to lead all rookies in passing yards, just rookies, just rookies, okay?

Caleb Williams is minus 130 on draft kings, Jaden Daniels plus 300, makes a lot of sense. Bo Nix plus 350. Drake May plus 1,000. Looking kind of like he'll be the week one starter, it's hard to say, with a Brescet injury. What do you think Michael Penix is on that list? Plus 6,000. Yeah, he's way down there.

He's like... He's plus 10,000 to lead all rookies and passing yards. Okay? Okay. Hear me out. What if? What if? Cousins is not ready to play week one.

Do you think that's a possibility that he's not ready week one? No. And I don't think it's a possibility because I feel like this number would have moved more if. Yeah, I feel like there'd be something coming out right now, especially right now. We're getting all the information. The teams are pairing their rosters down. So yeah. Luckily, luckily I'm early to it.

I must be, you know, just really early to the news here. But what if, what if he's not ready for week one? And then let me flip this to you. You love narrative, right? We like a good narrative. Oh, yeah. The Falcons play. week two on primetime against

the Eagles and they play week three prime time at home against the Chiefs. What if, okay, you're going to concede, I'm going to force you to concede that he's not ready week one. What if Pennix plays the first four games of the season and what if he looks good twice on prime time and the Falcons

are four and oh or three and one? What if, what if? Can you possibly, can you possibly, with everything that happened during the draft and how much shit the Falcons took, could you possibly go back to Kirk Cousins if Pennix is playing that well. You can't if he plays well. You can't if he plays well.

Yeah, and this is hypothetical, yes. You can't turn back, but yeah, I don't know. I don't, I'm not fine. If Pennix doesn't start week one, though, your money is already lit on time. Yeah, Caleb Williams and Jay and Dent, all these guys are going to be starting week one. They're all going to be compiling stats all season.

Yeah, but listen, it's thin, okay? It's plus 10,000. Plus 10,000's always going to be thin, right? We know this. But I'm going to say non-zero chance. I know people always say that. Did you actually make this bet, by the way? Oh, yeah, of course.

Every bet that I bring to you, I made. I'm not, listen. I hope you just put your couch change on this bet. I like, I'm typically, I'm typically around 20, 25 bucks on a bet for this program. they'll probably all be $20 to $25 bets. This one specifically, I threw the extra A blinking on the end just to, you know, make it a $25 bet. But I just don't know. It's been too weird.

It's been too strange. I don't know. It's keeping me up at night. I don't know if he should be there. We should have something. They should be like Kirk ready to go. No question starter. And why?

Other than that they just suck and that they're a terrible organization, which could probably is the case why wouldn't they get him some reps in the last two preseason games it's a great question i don't know why but most these a lot of these teams are sitting a lot of important players he's top ten pick they don't want to they don't want to see him get hurt

and then yeah i i don't know kela played more than them daniels played more than them may played more than them they all did i don't know i just think it's because they're stupid it comes from those rams starts week one by the way Trey is going to have the biggest freaking grin on his face.

We won't hear the end of it. And another point to it with the quarterbacks, all those guys, you talk about how they played, right? If it was genuinely that the Falcons were concerned about Kirk Cousin's injury and they wanted to make sure they had a backup, may have an option, Hospital Ball Heineke, still in the building. Again, he's got starting NFL experience.

He's not good, but he has starting experience. That's a viable, at one time, maybe people even thought one of the better backup. in the NFL. He's a viable option. It does not pass the smell test. I don't know what's going on, but again, keep your tinfoil hats on. Something weird is cooking in Atlanta, and we're going to find out what it is. I'll try to get some, I'll try to get some inside info. I'm actually heading to the ATL to see Smashing Pumpkins in Green Day. So I'm actually seeing Smashing Pumpkins tonight and tomorrow because they're in my, this isn't my hometown, but it's where I live. And they did my

They did our wedding song, but not for us. Yeah. We just happened to pick it. They didn't write it for us. So, uh, well, keep your ear to the, to the ground down there. I will. Get us any kind of insider info. I mean, maybe I'll have to tail this.

If you get some info here. I'll be asking Trey cool what he's hearing about Michael Penix. So I'll, uh, I'll also say I'm, I'm going to be having a very green day at the end of the season when Pennix gets in. Yes, you will. A lot of green. Very excited about that. So I do want to actually guys talk about some of the statistical leaders.

Tom, I want to start with you because you are going to have the reasonable approach. I have some long shots that I'm still hemming and hauling about whether or not I'm going to place them. I have one each for, I actually have two for rushing, but I have one each for passing and receiving. Did you make any wagers on guys to lead the league in passing rushing and receiving yards? Yeah, I have all those bets. I've been putting together these articles all summer long. Check out the best bets article in our featured section there. If you want to find any of these bets,

and I have them for all the statistical leaders. But yeah, passing yards later, it's not going to be very exciting. But there was a Patrick Mahomes 8 to 1 at Fandall not too long ago that I gave out. Just, you know, this is a guy that's always snobes. sniffing around the top of the board. Eight to one, I thought was pretty nice here with all the additions that they've made this offseason with Marquis Brown and Xavier, Xavier worthy coming to town. So it was just like a statistical outlier here, I think, last season.

So that was one. I also have a long shot on, it's a real long shot. So maybe, maybe this is up your rally, Joe. Will Levis. He stole one. Oh, really? Okay. Well, it's down to 40 to one.

now. Is it really? Well, I gave it out 80 to 1 back in June. That was just just because he, you know, this, we've seen Callahan wants to come in here and play kind of the offense that the Bengals have been running the last couple of years. They'd go out and go Calvin Ridley. We see Levis is very aggressive attacking downfield. So that was one that I circle. I don't do. I think it's going to happen. No. But I think for the way they want to play. And I also think they're going to be probably playing. from behind in a lot of games. So, you know, my mind goes back all the way to like Blake Bortles back in the day when those Jacksonville teams were always losing and he was compiling stats in the fourth quarter. And we see that's from time to time again with some of these quarterbacks. So that was why I, I jumped on Will Levis. So you liked that one too.

I did. I liked it at 40 to 1. There's one rate above them at 39 to 1. Will Levis, by the way, played well in the preseason, which is also good to see. I mean, small sample, but he played well. Gino Smith, 39 to 1. Now you would expect Mike McDonald's going to come in there and shore up that defense. But Gino's got weapons.

There's no two ways about it. You just feel like they might run the ball a little bit too much. Good friend, Trey. What's Michael Pennix's odds to lead the NFL in passing? A million to one? On draft kings, I believe here, he's 25,000 plus 25,000. But I've got some just terrible news for you, fellas. I actually love the Will Levis bet.

Oh, oh no. We got a family playing. In best ball, I've been, I've got more shares of Will Levis than I can count. I really think that he's got, and I think Scott tweeted this too. We kind of separately had the same opinion. He has a little bit of James to him this year, I think, where they're just going to let it fly. He might, maybe he'll go 30 and 30. Maybe he'll have a crazy season.

but I gave the Bordel's example. Yeah, James is a great, you know, in the same vein there, a guy that's always playing from behind, chucking a lot downfield aggressively. So, yeah, I can see that through line there with all three of those guys. The one that I'd like to lay out there that I'm always, I'm always on the Rams, I can't get away. I believe too much in Matt Stafford.

I think he's plus 1,400 on draft Kings. I think Matt Stafford is always live to lead the league in passing yards, especially if Cooper Cubs going to do whatever. everyone saying he's going to do this year and Pooka Nakua is going to continue to be Pooka Nakuwa. I'm always, I'm always, I always think Matthew Stafford is live to, to lead the league. So I had to, had to throw that in there. That was actually way too reasonable for you. So have you go into the lab and cook something up.

I'm going to the rushing props, Tom. I have a couple here that are that are super long shots that I actually kind of like, let me start with those. Two guys, one guy who I think has underrated bell cow potential, Isaiah Pacheco is 29 to 1 the league in rushing. Now look, again, it's the Chiefs. I don't think this is going to happen.

But as we were sitting here, the Chiefs cut Dineric Prince. I don't think Clyde Edwards-Alaris practiced at all. The guy who's gotten the most run behind Pacheco in the preseason is a guy named Carson Steele. So, like, there's no depth there. He's not a real person. No depth there whatsoever for Kansas City.

going to go to your boy T-bro. 40 to 1, Naji Harris. Okay. Jalen's hamstring's going to have a hamstring. Arthur Smith is licking his chaff to get Cordero Patterson involved. Oh, God, I know. He can't resist. He had a good preseason game. He can't throw the ball. Who's the number two receiver? They cut Quez Watkins. Good question. He's probably going to be on their roster on Wednesday or Thursday. We'll find out who the number two receiver is later this week. So he's 40 to one. These are both at Bandol. Again, I haven't gotten to the window with this, I actually kind of really like the Naji one. So I think I'm going to wager that one. I'm going to wager it offshore because I live in South Carolina. But I just tried to find the best number for people. Tom, do you have any bets down on the league in rushing?

Yeah, I gave out Derek Henry earlier this off season. It was 20 to 1. I think it's down to 12 to 1 right now. Just massive upgrades, offensive lines. So maybe if you look around for that one, maybe you'll find a better number. But a massive offensive line upgrade. Lamar Jacks. should open things up for him as well, for his rushing. He was already 3.06 yards after contact per attempt from the fantasy points data suite there. So now he gets a good offensive line from him.

So 12 to 1, it's not the worst thing, but maybe shop around, maybe you can find a better number. And I didn't actually bet this one. I'm kind of regretting at the time. James Cook for the bills, we think they want to go, we saw at the end of last season, and they want to go a little bit more run heavy.

They did draft Ray Davis, but they, you know, Scott D. Benedetto, or offensive line rankings, they came out really strong in there, ranked eighth overall. Just a lot of things to like, 2.35 yards after contact, before contact behind that offensive line

from our fantasy points data. So a lot of things to like here with James Cook. So that was one I liked. he's a little bit of a longer shot in this category. All right, good friend, Trey. Well, how much did you put on Bijon? No, nothing on Bijon, you know, there's not much there for me. Not digging that.

I would second the Pacheco bet. The volume's crazy. I will say, though, I've had a lot of Carson Steele in the preseason DFS, and he looks pretty good. I know it's the preseason. I know he's playing against the twos and the threes, but, man, there's something there. That guy's got a little something. So maybe not totally, you know, all the volume to Pacheco. Maybe he sneaks in there and plays a little bit.

But that might be a long time. All he has is a good flow. He's got a nice flow up top. He does have a good flow. My grossest pick, and I'm not going to bet this. So if I'm not going to bet it, nobody should bet it. But I think there's a story to be told about Javante Williams. And I don't know what he is on.

Fandahs he's plus 7,000. Yeah, he's plus 7,000 on Draft Kings. It might take an injury, but I've talked with Edwin about this earlier in the offseason. I just, I feel like he's one of the more mispriced players right now. I think if Javante Williams, you know, a year removed for the injury or two years removed, you know, he's last year he was still dealing with the little bit. She'll be fully healthy now. If you could find an injury in there, maybe Jameel, Jaliel McLaughlin goes down.

and I don't totally believe in Audric Estime. It's not really, he's not really my favorite. So if you could get Javante Williams back to 90% of what he was before he went down with a rookie quarterback, I could be talked into that, but I'm not betting it. It's, it's pretty thin. My favorite bet that I've come up with in this market, the season leaders. By the way, I do want people to check out Tom Broly's best bets articles up at fantasy points.com. Tom, you're going to have,

player props, a season long props as well for yardage and touchdowns and all yeah, there's everything is in there. Yeah, I just don't have the time to get to him today. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you track the entire year. So you're going to have weekly, weekly player prop bets. John Hansen does it. Barfield's going to do it. So we're going to have all that stuff. Trey will be cooking up whatever it is. You got to, you got to join the podcast if you want Trey's picks. Yeah. That's a podcast. Yeah. Yeah. We've maybe turned subscribers away. My favorite one that I've cooked up with in this market. Most regular season receiving yards. The guy who finished sixth in receiving yards last

year is 17th in odds despite a theoretically major quarterback upgrade. DJ Moore's 44 to 1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Now, again, do I think it's going to happen? I don't because I think C.D. Lamb has an opportunity to break the single season reception record, which it would be hard for somebody to get a whole lot more yardage than him this year. But DJ Moore at 44 to 1. He had 1,400 yards last year with a guy who couldn't hit a barn with a medicine ball. And look, yes, he does have Roman Dunezai and Keenan. Now and around him, but a Dungesey's a rookie. Professor Keene Bean was carrying a little extra weight on him. People were talking about maybe lost a step here. He might pull a hamstring in week one for all we know.

So DJ Moore, 44 to 1 at Fandul, I think was an appealing looking number to me. I will wager this offshore. I have not done so yet, but I will. Yeah, I actually, speaking of individual player props, that was one of the ones I gave out was DJ Moore over his receiving yards at 925 and a half. I believe it has been bet up a little bit, but I really like that one. Guy is just a friggin stud, and now he's going to get his best quarterback play of his career. Stupidly low number. Yeah. Oh, yeah. So that's, I like that. I think it is up in 975 and a half, but I still like that one a lot. the one I gave out two for this market. The one has moved a lot.

Garrett Wilson was at 28 to 1 to lead the league in receiving yards. I'm seeing 16 to 1 now on Fandall, so maybe shop around. See if you can get that one, but this one's pretty self-explanatory. I don't, if you've been, if you have a pulse, you know that he hasn't been playing with the good quarterbacks the last couple of years, Zach Wilson. And the one time he actually did have a good quarterback play. It was right at the beginning of his career with Joe Flacco for a few games. And he was averaging 76 receiving yards per game in his first couple games as an NFL starter. So now we're going to get Aaron Rogers.

So hopefully we've seen Devante Adams was in the mix to lead in receiving guards. So maybe Garrett Wilson is the next guy he can propel to the top of the leaderboard. And the other one I gave out is still pretty close to this number. Chris Olavé 30 to 1. A little bit of a more of a long shot, but just looking at this receiving court, there's nobody else. We got Rashid Shahid and Juan Johnson's coming off,

you know, back off a broken foot. Alvin Kamara is a checkdown, you know, his specialist. So we need Derek Carr to be a little bit more aggressive here this year, but maybe the Kubiak offense coming here. Alave is going to be playing in that, Justin Jefferson rule, move them around a little bit, you know, get them in motion, create some one-on-one matchups, create some easier, you know, access throws for them in the

intermediate to short area. So that one's, that number is still out there. This is another place where we think the Saints could stink a little bit. So maybe they're playing from behind. Maybe he gets some cheap yardages, yardage totals late in games. So I like this one. It still looks like at Fandall 29 to 1. So this is a number that's still pretty wide. widely out there. Well, I was going to get good friend Trey's take. You know what? Let's give him a take. All right. One more. That's it. We'll get them one more. Good friend Trey, receiving yards to lead the NFL. I'm getting a lot of billable hours today on this podcast. Three for three on DJ Moore. I think that one makes a lot of sense. Don't need to talk too much

more about that. I do have a story I could tell myself about a thinner play down the board. DK has Christian Watson, 70 to 1, and everyone's like, well, there's too many miles to feed, which makes a lot of sense, but that wide receiver room is not, it's not like, again, you talk about like they don't have a bunch of ones, they got a bunch of really good kind of twos, you know, maybe. But Watson seems like the type of guy that could actually be a wide receiver one. If he's fully healthy, you've seen the splits, I'm sure. when Watson plays, what Jaden Reed does when Watson plays, he kind of falls to the backside.

I'm a Wicks denier through and through. I don't think there's any path for him to make it happen. I'm sure I'll eat my words on that. But if Watson emerges as a true one, Alpha 1 for Jordan Love and stays healthy, I think that one makes a lot of sense. I got the market maybe you might want to bet the Christian Watson. I actually gave this one out is the receiving touchdowns. Like the guy has been a beast in the red zone early in his career. Obviously a big play specialist can score from anywhere on the field. So if you do the sprinkle of the, you know, a little bit of the receiving guards, go sprinkle the receiving touchdowns as well. That was 85 to 1.

Looks like it's now 65 to 1, but that's still pretty good price here for Christian Watson, the guy that has, you know, played pretty well when he's been healthy. Tom Brawley, get his best best up at FantasyPoint.com with the NFL premium. package use code score more to get yourself a 10% discount. Do not go get good friend Trey's bets. We don't even offer them on the website, but sometimes he might insidiously kind of sneak into our subscriber discord for the NFL betting channel. And for me, well, I'm just facilitating this. And if it wasn't obvious already, we're not wise. We're just guys. Take it easy, everybody.