Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Team Futures and the Anthony Richardson Buffet

Episode Date: August 21, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Age Curves Article By Ryan Heath - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out#/ Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Thinking About Thinking Substack - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/lets-think-about-thinking FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sales. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27. Conditions apply, details online. Do the Best Betts podcast here at Fantasy Points.com. It's your boy, Joe Dolan, with T-Bro, Tom Brolly here,

bringing you talk in the world of betting for the National Football League each and every week throughout the NFL season. The two of us are here. We're going to be having a blast discussing betting with you. Now, unfortunately, we might hear from good friend Trey a little bit later. He is the world's worst gambler, but somehow it was written into his contract, Tom. We did not read the fine print. We did not think this through that he is, we are obligated to bring him on to the best best

best podcast every week. I'm sickened by it. But, hey, you have to have some, to win, you have to know what to fade. And we're going to be fading a good friend Trey here on the show. But T, bro, it's been a while since you and I sat down and did a podcast. This is kind of a fresh start here on the Best Bet show. It's good to be with you. And today we're going to be talking Super Bowls, division, playoff,

win totals, all kinds of stuff on the team level as we head into the 2024. Yeah, it really has been a while, I guess probably since last season. We've been on the morning show here recently. You cover Monday, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and I'm doing the Tuesday and Thursday shows. But it's been a while since we've actually, you know, did a podcast together. So it's good to be teaming back up with. yeah, and we're going to be doing this all season long every Wednesday, a little bit different format. We used to do the Friday show, Friday evening, and it would just get like lost in

the ether of, you know, the weekend and people going to do whatever they wanted to do. But we figured, let's put it out a little bit earlier in the week. We can discuss a little bit what happened the week before and then start to look ahead to the week ahead and get some early bets for the week. And Thursday props will probably start coming out so we can give some of those out. So looking forward to the new format. And, you know, unfortunately, we have to get good friend Trey's, uh, his bets as well. God awful takes. Hey, who knows though? Maybe, maybe he'll get hot and we can start to tell him. Who knows? We'll see how it goes. He was, uh, he was like Severus Snape cooking up an absolute potion of disgustingness, uh, for a parley that he's going to, I think,

throw, throw on us a little bit later. But T-brow, here's how I wanted to do this. I kind of want to take a top-down approach here for this podcast. Let's talk about what you think are the best numbers out there on teams to win the Super Bowl or win their conference and then kind of trickle it down to the divisionals, the odds to make the playoffs, the win total, something like that. So you are the fantasy points betting lead. You are the betting expert. And look, I looked at these numbers now. It is August 21st. So I'm looking at the numbers and I'm not seeing a whole lot of value out there on the Super Bowl level right now. What have you hit earlier in the off season? Is there a number you still think out there is kind of appealing to you for a Super Bowl winner?

So, yeah, my Super Bowl bets, I usually make those early in the off season. So if you're a subscriber, you know, makes sure to check out like February, March, right before. Because once the, you know, once the off season starts to move along, a lot of the value gets taken out. And so we'd like to get those bets. I know not everybody likes to place a bet that far out. But, but, but that's the best way to find some value here. So one I did place back in February or March was on the Cincinnati Bengals. 15 to one odds are still out there at Fandall I'm seeing.

Still a little bit worried about this DeMar Chay situation. It's lingering on a little bit in training camp. Adam Schaefter was just talking about it last night and it's getting me a little bit worried that he might actually miss a little bit of time. Chad Ocho Sinko was saying that he could actually, he thinks he could actually sit out some game time if he doesn't come to a new contract.

But we think back to the last couple of years, there's only been one team that's been able to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. And that's Joe Burrow and these Cincinnati Bengals. So that is one team I've circled here. I do like the Bengals, a little bit of a revenge angle. Joe Burrow lost a lot of time last. year at the end of the year with the wrist injury. This could be the last ride with with T. Higgins and Jbar Chase in the mix like some of their moves. Otherwise, Amarius Mims was making

some noise as a first round pick. A big right tackle potentially he picked up an injury, but he could be a potential, you know, a protector there for Joe Burrough. So tough division with the AFC North, but liking a lot what I'm seeing with the Bengals. They get that, you know, a nice easy schedule as well, finishing fourth place in the AFC North last year. So that was one number that

kind of stood out to me early in the process and still a 15 to 1 out there. So like the Bengals, go to Fandall if you want to find that number. The two that I looked at were both on the NFC side. The Rams are 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. That's the longest odds at multiple books. I think the loss of Aaron Donald is significant, but that's baked into this price.

I think they could be really good offensively. Stafford was exceptional last year. Cooper Cup, they're saying, is as healthy as he's been in years. Problem is right now they have issues on the offensive line with injuries, which might prevent you. But that's a 30 to one number, and that's a team that can make some noise. As a matter of fact, it was a team that did make some noise last year. I think they can make more of it this year. I also-

I got a prop on them, Joe. I'll throw it out there. It's been, I gave it out earlier this month, them to have the most regular season points at 25 to 1. If you want to look for a little different angle with the Rams. I like not a lot. You like their offense a lot.

Well, their defense could stink without Aaron Donald. So yeah, I actually like that better than the Super Bowl bet. Yeah, yeah. That's why I did like that angle. And you're completely right about their, their defense potentially struggling a little bit more than, than they have in the past without Aaron Donald.

And if you go back and look at their, the way they closed last season, average 29 points per game. If you extrapolate that to the whole season, would have ranked only behind Dallas and Miami at 29.9.2. So I liked a lot from what we saw from that Rams offense. And they get to start with the Detroit Lions. So that's going to be a high scoring game.

But I just wanted to throw that out there as maybe a different way to attack with the Rams at 25 to 1. That was at Fandall whenever I got that in early August. So I also have the Philadelphia Eagles 15 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Don't feel as strongly on this one. Obviously, the meltdown last year was unacceptable. They were legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL by the time they crab walked into the playoffs, got their butts whipped by the Buccaneers.

But they seem to have done a lot of soul searching this offseason. Vic Fangio, I think, is going to be a huge improvement on the defensive side. I think Helen Moore is going to be a massive improvement on the offensive side. And individually, look, I don't want to take too much from training camp practices. But last year, there was a little bit of consternation. Jaylon Hertz wasn't as sharp, you know, as we've seen. This year, the complete opposite. Jalen Hurts, like, look, there's some, there's an Eagles troll beat writer out there.

Is this Elliot? Yeah, I wasn't going to throw his name out there. He gets enough, he gets enough clicks as is. but he does track the preseason stats and Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown an interception and all a training camp and like even some hurt skeptics are like oh man this guy looks really good refreshed in the in the in training camp so 15 to one on the Eagles again Tom I think the value there is gone I think you got a better number earlier this off season but it's the Eagles to me as a supporter you could tell me they go seven and 10 this year and Fire Nick Siriani.

You also could tell me they go 14 and 3 and they're back in the Super Bowl the way they were two years ago. I wouldn't be surprised, but of the teams at 15 to 1 and longer, they by far had the highest ceiling in my opinion. Yeah, this is one I did get earlier in the summer at 22 to 1. 15 to 1 is still, I still like it there. You're right, the value has been taken out a little bit,

but we'll make this a little bit of a team play here. A little, we both are on this here. You're right, though. Maybe they crash and burn, kind of like the second half of last season. But we also saw the upside of this team when they started, what was it, 10 and 1 last year. And they were the favorites. They were the favorites after the first 11 games they played. So they certainly crashed and burned, but everything seems to be trending in the right direction.

We'll see if Siriani and Hertz can play, you know, stay happy here throughout the whole season. That was, of course, a big story that came out here. that those two, you know, got some peacemakers in here with, with Kellyn Moore and Vic Fangio, hopefully. So, yeah, I like this one. Maybe I got another angle for that one, too, though. Maybe we can get that after the break. If the value's been taken out of that Super Bowl bet,

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All right, T-Bro, so you tease something about the Eagles. I'm going to let you get to that, but I'm going to first, your Bengals bet is kind of interesting to me because I have one wager to win the division. Now, I'm going to be completely honest. Tom is the one who's doing the work on this back in March and April and May, you know, with around free agency in the draft. I'm the, maybe I should be the good friend on this podcast. I'm the Huckster who's sitting here having just made wagers like this week.

but there is one that stood out to me. And, you know, when I think you're making a longer wager on a team or a player, and this even goes for fantasy, like when you're talking about a 12th or 13th round pick in fantasy, you acknowledge why that player is a 12th or 13th round pick, but you also, when you're making that pick, you have to say, what if I'm right? You know, what could go right for this team?

Well, the Cleveland Browns at 6 to 1 to win the AFC North, I understand why they're there. Lamar is the defending MVP. Tom thinks Cincinnati's a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Mike Tomlin's never had a losing record. And Deshawn Watson, frankly, has been mediocre at best since he got to Cleveland. But they have Miles Garrett. Amari Cooper, they made whole. He's happy.

They traded for Jerry Judy. the offensive line, if healthy, is good. Could Cleveland on the strength of the defense and the offensive line coaxed good enough play out of Deshaun Watson that at 6 to 1, this was to me by far the biggest value bet in this market. Yes, a difficult division, but at 6 to 1, this is a team that has way better than 6 to 1 talent to win a division in my opinion. Yeah, and there's somebody that roots for the Steelers here,

They look like a team that's not going to be consenting for an AFC North title right now. It's early in the preseason here, but they have a lot of issues. So maybe that takes one of these teams out of contention. And I mean, I'll spoil it now. I mean, we'll talk a little win totals. I have the Ravens under their win total. That got that at 11 and a half. I'm not sure.

It's been bouncing between 10 and a half and 11.5. So I think they, they're a team that I could see, you know, having a little bit of regression from last year. season. Everything kind of broke right for them. Lost a lot along the offensive line. Everybody, we'll see how the Derek Henry move. That was like the dream pickup of the offseason. Everybody was kind of pinpointing him as a guy that should go to Baltimore and team up with Lamar Jackson. But, you know, it's not a guarantee that it's a slam dunk here. He's going to be entering his 30s here and has a lot of mileage on the tires here. So I do see the Ravens as a team that could take a step back here.

And what, yeah, what if Deshawn Watson, I mean, that's the biggest. It's going to come down. This bet is all coming down to Deshawn Watson. Is he going to take a step forward? Is he healthy again? That was a big issue last year, even before he got shut down. He was struggling to stay healthy. You know, wasn't quite right for most of the season.

So hopefully the surgery went well for him. And they went out and get Ken Dorsey. They want to run a more up. tempo offense kind of, you know, take him back to his Houston days, really spread it out. Now he's got multiple weapons there with Jerry Judy, you know, teaming up with Amari Cooper and David and Joku. So I like a lot of things that they've done. Well, just the other thing is can their defense continue to play on an all world level? That was, they were, you know, a class above everybody else last season.

And we saw take take a step back in the in the wild card round. against the Texans and they got absolutely smoked. So we'll see if they can, you know, take it to a, you know, can stay at that elite level that their defense was. But I do think the Ravens are primed to take a little bit of a step back here. So that could help your bet with Cleveland Browns. And I also like the Cincinnati Bengals at plus 165. I gave that out.

They gave that one out earlier in the off season. You know, teaming it up with my Super Bowl bet on the Bengals at 15 to 1. Tom, at the divisional level, is there anything that you have hit this offseason, anything that you still see some value in in terms of betting these teams to win the division? I did hit the Eagles earlier this offseason. That one is, it was like plus 120 or plus 130, I believe. A lot of the value has been taken out of that, but still seeing a minus 120 out there at Draft Kings and Bet MGM.

I'm just getting some terrible vibes from the Dallas Cowboys, although it does sound like seedy lambs deal might be getting closer to picked up here. I saw Diana Rusini writing this morning that two sources have told her that it's getting close here. But they also have Michael Persons, who's quite unhappy and Dak Prescott as well. So quite off-season overall, the running back room has been very quiet. it. So that was one that I also liked. And one other one I bet was the Indianapolis Colts plus 330. I thought that was a really good value.

And it's still hanging in there. That was one I hit back in March and still hanging in there with value. Texans have been the darlings, everybody's darlings in the AFC. They're close to even money at a lot of books right now. Jaguar's also getting some respect ahead of the Colts. So that was another one I liked a lot. So those were the three divisional bets I've made. There are some interesting ones out there, though, too.

Did you like any other ones that you were looking at? There was nothing that I saw that really tickled my pickle in terms of value at this point. The Browns was the one that really stood out to me. I think just naturally I was looking at anything that was longer than like 250 plus 250. and it's really hard to find one that you can talk yourself into at that number, right? I mean, I even like, I even like looked at Carolina. I'm like, that division is not good, but I just couldn't get there. And I could not get to the window with the Panthers.

Too much would need to go right for Carolina for me to get there for them. They're like 950 to 1, I think. Yeah, and their odds have, they've stretched out here. I'm seeing 11 to 1, 12 to 1, 13 to 1 now. I think it's on the heels of the Falcons making a couple moves here. getting Matthew Judeon and Justin Simmons to kind of solidify that defense. So the Falcons odds keep stretching out. They're one of the biggest favorites behind the Kansas City Chiefs in terms of,

I think it's the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and then the Atlanta Falcons who missed the playoffs last year, have the third best odds to win their respective divisions. So that just tells you how disappointing that team was last year, all the talent they had and just how bad that division is right now. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the division last year, not getting a whole lot of respect. They're as high as plus 350 out there.

A lot of people thinking that Baker Mayfield is going to regress some of those turnover worthy throws that he had last year. Maybe they start going against them. So Falcons are opening up, they're the odds on favorites now in the NFC. South. It's very rare. And another one that I was thinking is possible for a team with a young quarterback who's getting so hyped up this offseason to have, I guess, odds as long as I've seen as long as plus 230 for the Packers to win the NFC North. And look, everybody loves the Lions as well.

The Lions should have made the Super Bowl last year. But the Packers at plus 230 to win the NFC South, I think that there's some value in there as well if you really like Green Bay. if you think Jordan Love is going to take that next step. Tom, backing up to one of the things you said earlier, I made some wagers to make and miss the playoffs. Okay. And this is going to be, oh, Dullin the Eagles, he's a cowboy hater.

Plus 170 Dallas to miss the playoffs on Draft Kings. As we record this, there is no CD-LAM deal done. None. Now, I have said all off-season that I expect that to get done, because I don't see any benefit whatsoever in the Cowboys letting this linger. CD Lamb is not getting cheaper. He is going to have to get paid at some point.

But there is some discontent there. There is Alk. I talked to Marcus Mosher of the Locked-on Cowboys podcast earlier this offseason for franchise focus, and he said, yeah, I put it at better than 50-50. This is Dax last year in Dallas? So is it last hurrah kind of deal? like the last ride like Phil Jackson and Scottie Pippin and Michael Jordan? Or is it Rose in Titanic going up to Mr. Andrews? How long do we have? An hour. Toot most. You know,

like is it is the ship sinking already and it's time to jump off while we can. Mike McCarthy's back there. Could Dallas be a team that's going to clean house after this year? Vibes not great. You know, Jerry's saying we're all in and they have. have the least free agency, the least free agency use of anybody, activity of anybody. The offensive line, though Tyler Guyton's played well in the preseason. You're still replacing a lot of people on that offensive line. Other guys are getting older. I don't know.

I could see a collapse here in Big D. Yeah, I'm with you. I mean, a lot of people were surprised that Mike McCarthy made it through last off season. Everybody was waiting for, was he going to get fired? You know, after the big loss against the Packers and the wild card round, first team ever, has the two seed not to make it out of the wild card round. Obviously, they expanded the playoffs. And so it's been a limited sample, but first team not to do it.

Jerry Jones is sticking to his guns. He's giving Mike McCarthy another year. I don't know if that's just him being cheap or, you know, he just wants to give him another year. given, you know, he has had strong regular season performances here recently. So I think that's the only thing going against this bet. I mean, this has been the ultimate regular season team. And then, you know, when the lights get a little brighter, teams can, you know, game plan for them a little better in the postseason.

And they flame out pretty quickly. So, but I'm with you. They're a team. I've been looking to potentially fade anyway. I think they have a win total, you know, around nine and a half. 10 wins if you want to take that approach as well. That was definitely one of the teams that I put on my cutting board in terms of win totals.

I was looking hard at that one. So I'm siding with you on the Cowboys getting a plus price there missing the playoffs. I don't, do I think it's going to happen. No, but at the price, I do think it's worth a look. So Tom, you're not going to like this one. One of the missed the playoffs bets that I made. By the way, I have not, not only do I have the brown. six to one to win the division. I also have them plus 154 to make the playoffs a little bit,

like a little bit easier to swallow there if you're if you're backing the Browns and Sean Watson. But I have the Bengals plus 205 to miss. And obviously do I think that's going to happen? No. But Joe Burroughs been injured a lot in his career. We have Ocho Cinco coming out and saying, hey, look, Jamar Chase, if he doesn't get a deal, I think there's a chance he misses games. Now, I don't think Ocho Sinko is a reporter, but I would think he's probably at least texted Jamar Chase a time or two. You mentioned Ameris Mims is banged up. That offensive line could be a problem in front of Joe Burrow.

So I just feel like when you look for missed the playoffs, you look for things that can go wrong. I think Cleveland's a good team. I think Baltimore is a good team. Pittsburgh, say what you want. Mike Toml has never had a losing record. It's what happened to the Bengals last year, Tom, fourth in the division.

Yeah, they finish fourth with a winning record. Very competitive division overall. I'm down on the Steelers a lot, but they'll probably find themselves somewhere on seven, eight, nine wins like they always do every season. We saw the Bengals are kind of, I mean, that's why I like them to win the Super Bowl. I think they have a wider range of outcomes than most teams. They have, if Joe Burroughs right and his receivers are right, they can beat anybody. even Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

But if, you know, Burroughs banged up or, you know, the receivers are not happy and this secondary remains a mess for them. They let their safeties walk last offseason. And they gave some younger players a chance to play. And it was a nightmare. That was for fantasy purposes. We were always targeting, you know, quarterbacks and receivers that were playing against this Bengals secondary last year.

So they still have some questions. questions back there. So no, no, I don't, you know, I like the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the season going wrong for them and struggling to miss the playoffs, so. I mean, we were just, we were debating two sides of the same coin there, like, just a team that has a lot of talent and a lot of volatility to go with that. I mean, there's a team that's in the Super Bowl three years ago. It's a team that, that was fourth in the division last year. Uh, so T-bro, I am not on any win totals right now. So I'm going to open up the floor of you. You bet some of these earlier the offseason. I want to see what you like now in terms of still some value. You already mentioned

that you have the Ravens under the 10 and a half. Where else have you gone in the wind total market? Yeah, that was, I went to the extreme outliers for this one. I went with the Ravens. Just everything kind of broke right for them last season. Lost a lot of key players from the defense and as well as the offensive line. I lost John Simpson and Kevin Zitler from the offensive line. Patrick Queen went to the Steelers, lost Gino Stone as well. So I just think, yeah, with the Bengals potentially playing better, a lot tougher schedule as well. The Ravens got to play that first place schedule. So got to go out to Kansas City on opening night and, you know, deal with the, you know, that's the ring night for these teams. So you got to deal with that. Got to go out

the Buffalo. I got to go against the Houston Texans. So three really tough additional games that that they picked up. So that's 11 and a half wins. I think it has dropped down to like 10 and a half. I probably wouldn't play that. But if you can get an 11 or 11 and a half, I would I would play the under on that one. And the other one is just completely icky. It is so gross. It's the New England Patriots over four and a half wins. It has been bet up a a little bit since I gave it out. But that was, I am starting to sweat this one a little bit because a lot of it was on the, you know, the contingency that, you know, Matthew Judeon and Christian Gonzalez would be back

on already, you know, really good defense for the New England Patriots last year. I don't think people, just because they were a little bit of a joke at the end of the year, mostly offensively a joke. People forgot just how good that defense was playing at the end of the last year. So, but they've already traded Matthew Judon. So that's got me a little bit more, a little bit worried. And Kristen Barmore, who knows what his availability is going to be this season. You know, he had the, he had the blood clots going on.

So there's a chance that he might not even play this season. So this one has me a little bit more worried, but really low total, four and a half. You know, I think that they're offensively, Drake May should, I mean, the quarterback play for the Patriots was, just an abomination last year. Bailey Zappy on our fantasy points data, you know, worst turnover worthy throw rate in the league. Mack Jones wasn't any better as a starter in front of them.

So if they just get like, just even like slightly below quarterback play quarterback play from Jacobi Brouset for the first half of the season and then Drake May whenever he eventually starts, I do like some of these younger receivers. Hopefully Jalen Polk and Javon Baker get chances to play early.

The offensive line is what really skips me with this Patriots team. They're going to start two rookies and Kate Wallace, who we were familiar with at Penn State and a fourth round pick as well. So that could be the undoing of this offense, but four and a half wins with,

I think, an underrated, you know, top line defense. I think they'll be in enough, you know, in contention enough that they squeeze out, like five or six wins. Those were my two favorites. We were going to the extreme outliers with those ones with the Patriots over four and a half wins and the Baltimore Ravens under an 11.5 wins. So if you use code score more, you can check out former NFL scout Scott de Benedetto's offensive line rankings in which, spoiler alert, he ranked the New England Patriots last in the NFL. He also did some defensive line rankings and is going to be having some mailbags

who are better going to be posted soon. T-bro, I hate to do this to the people. But after the break, we have to bring on Good Friend Trey, who has cooked up a potion of crap. Oh, boy, I can't wait. For his best bet of the season, we've got to pay the bills, but we'll be back with Good Friend Trey,

and hopefully he'll give you something that'll at least make you laugh. All right, welcome in Good Friend Trey, the self-proclaimed, world's worst gambler who managed to finagle his way onto this podcast and will be a permanent member of the show. It is written into his contract. I hope we didn't get billable hours for that, T-Bro, but good friend Trey, welcome to the best bet show here at FantasyPoints.com. It's good to be with you, my friend. Yeah, it's good to be here. I will say I'm not doing very good, Joe. I know. I'll tell you why. I've been playing a lot of preseason DFS here.

Oh boy. And it has not been going good for me. Four slates, I don't think I've cashed a single lineup, which is fine. You lose sometimes. But here's the kicker. Darren in the Discord has been handing out just unbelievable information. I mean, the best stuff. So, I mean, I've got an edge.

It's kind of like if a buddy gives you, you know, like 50% of the answers to a test and you still get an F, that's kind of what's been going on with these DFS lineups. It's just been brutal. So not feeling the best, but listen, it's never stopped me before. It's not going to stop me now. We're going to keep giving draft kings our money and rocking forward. Trey, please don't tell me you've been betting all these preseason overs. And every game is just flying under like these teams are just benching.

They're good players. I think there's been like six overs in the entire preseason so far. Don't tell me that you've been betting overs. So I haven't been betting the overs, but I will tell you, week one I said, said, you know, the Thursday slate, I believe it was, said it's going to be bad weather. It's going to be disgusting. We're going to put the defenses in. We're going to put the kickers in.

Oh, yeah. And throw a random player in there. And I'm not shitting you, Tom. It was five touchdowns in two, two and a half quarters. The only game that went over. I could not believe it. So I moved off of the defenses and, of course, a bunch of a bunch of shitty football this week. Yeah, those Hall of Fame games are usually.

the just the ugliest football will see all season. Of course, it was an offensive explosion in that game. Offensive explosion and then a rain out. I mean, you can't make this shit up. So the self-proclaimed world's worth gambler is also the world's worst preseason DFS player from what I'm gathering. But a good friend, Trent, hopefully you've been listening in a little bit as T-Bro and I have been going through our kind of team predictions. And we'll bring you on next week as well, because we have to, but we're going to be talking player awards, season long, player futures and things like that

on next week's program. But you really went to the lab for your first, for your first good friend Trey's worst bet. Where'd you go? And does it involve anything on the team level? Well, let me tell you this, Joe.

It does. One team specifically, it's the Indianapolis Colts. Oh, I like it. This came across my desk, Joe. and I started doing the research. I got in the lab, got out the pen and paper, and I said, my God, we've got something here, fellas. So let's start this story, okay, January 8, 2023, right?

Okay. Last game of the season, or the Colts last game of the season. Not one touchdown, not one quarter, not one game. They were one play away for winning the division, the AFC South, the Colts were. Tyler Goodson, University of Iowa. a poverty university, crapshoot, you know,

and if it was Breece Hall, he catches that pass. Yeah. Canadian Nguanke who catches that pass, David Montgomery, but that's beside the point, you know. Drops the pass from Gardner,

Minshu, they lose the division. I am sick and tired of hearing about C.J. Stroud this. Stefan digs that. Let me tell you this,

and people are not going to like this. Anthony Richardson is a better NFL quarterback than Cedger's grab. Takes. Not that one I don't even have to, I don't even have to talk about that. That's just a fact. Shane Steichen is a better NFL coach than D'Amico Ryan's. And I think he's better than most of the coaches in the NFL. I think he's, I mean, this might be a little early, but borderline top five. I'm a big Shane Stiking guy. Jonathan Taylor, not a hot take, better than any skill player that the Texans have. Not a hot take. We, we all know that. Here's one I don't know

if you're going to like. Michael Pittman is as good or better than every wide receiver on the Texans. Wow. They got three good ones. This is easy. Dust. He's done. You've seen the late season

numbers he's dust. So throw him out. Nico Collins, I'm not buying in. I'm not buying in to the magic year. I'm going to say he's they're equal, Michael Pittman and Nico Collins. And take tell, Small. Listen, I don't, I don't like my receivers. If I can bench press my

wide receiver. I don't like them. So he's shopping at the baby gap too small. Do not want take Dell. Oh, yeah. I mean, we haven't even gotten to the bet yet and he's buried. Like he's going, uh, he's going to bexom for net. Overrated is what I'm completely over. One good season. They were the worst team in football for three straight years. 10 wins. And they have one good year. And everybody is. just buy, you know, Ryan, you know, getting on the bandwagon here, ready to go to the Super Bowl. Yeah, you'd think they were trying to three-peat this year. I just, I can't believe what's, what's been going on with the narrative.

But let me, let me flip you, let's get back to Anthony Richardson. Let me flip you some stats. This is from our guy, Scott Barrett. I'm sure. These are going to be pretty dank, man. Yeah, they're pretty dank. Per four full quarters, Anthony Richardson, 29.2 fantasy points. Josh Allen, number two, 24.

The gap between Anthony Richard, Josh Allen. Again, I know this is a betting argument, not a fantasy argument, but, I pulled some data of my own, guys, and I want to do a little quiz here. And you could poke some holes in this data, but it's my data. So I don't care. And I'm going to lay it out to you. So I took week one, 32 quarterbacks, average it out. Let's say 63 snaps a game for quarterbacks on average, you know, give an injury factor or whatever.

Yeah, and you can poke holes in it. I don't give a shit. It's my argument. I'm sticking with it. So we'll give them two and a half games played, right? 230 passing yards a game. 1.2 passing yards per game, 54 rushing yards per game,

1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. You follow me? I like that. You like what you're hearing? I do. Now, let me tell you this. We're good. I'm not going to give you the name of this player.

I'm going to give you the stats. 229.9 passing yards per game. So 0.1 yards less. Okay. 1.5 passing touchdowns. So that's 0.3 more. 51.3 rushing yards per game. So that's less rushing yards.

and 0.31 rushing touchdowns per game, significantly less rushing touchdowns. Can you tell me who this player is? I have an idea. I think it's the 2023 MVP. I think it's Lamar because Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts would have too many rushing touchdowns. You would be exactly right. The 2023 most valuable player was worse than Anthony Richardson, in limited fashion, of course. Yes, most of the size alert.

worse, but I'm not here to predict injuries. That's not my, that's not my MO. That's not what I'm about. So we're going to say he's going to play the full season. So this bet is the Anthony Richardson buffet. And the reason I call it the Anthony Richardson Buffet is because there's no sides here. Okay. This is four entrees, no greens, Midwest style.

We're eating good. So four units on this bet, right? Unit number one, Colts to win the AFC South. Okay. I'm with you. Fully approved. I am on board. This is one of my bets of the early,

early off season. I am fully on board here. Sleeper. I would go as far to say that this bet is the lock of the millennium. That's my opinion on this bet. They have the third best odds. You're telling me the Jaguars are going to be in the mix there. We got tape on the Texans now.

We know what they're about. Diggs will have everybody hating each other by week eight. You know, I just, it's that bet. That's not even a hot take. We're just going to. That play is going to help them this season. They went from having to play a first, having to play the Chiefs,

having to play the Ravens, having to play the Bills to play in a third place schedule. Now they get three easy games compared to what the Texans have to face. Yeah, this is the nice base layer guarantee of this bet, and we'll get into the next steps here. So the next part of the Anthony Richardson buffet, Anthony Richardson to win MVP. okay one unit we'll call it a hundred dollar unit so it'd be a hundred dollars to return three

grand you're paying your mortgage when anthony richon wins MVP i'm also i'm also on the richardson mvp bet i'm i'm loving this this buffet so far i'm very hungry i'm i'm digging in so the next bet i'll just go through the last two quickly richardson comeback player of the year that's your fail safe if he doesn't win MVP maybe the texans you know squeak it out but we're gonna we're gonna we're going to pity him. We're going to pity him. We're going to give him a comeback player of the year. That's 100 to return 750. Okay. That's kind of your, that's kind of your hedge there within the bet. And then Shane Steichen coach of the year plus 1,500, one unit to return $1,600 if you're a $100 better. These four bets combined, I would, like I said, I would be shocked. I would, I will, I'm not going to revoke my rights to be on this podcast, but I almost would if the Colts don't win the

I feel that confident about it. I think it's going to happen. The good news is these are all future. So we can't kick you off right away. We have to wait till the end of the season. Oh, I see. I see what he's up to. All right. Now, when we get into the week one nitty gritty and he has to have an immediate return. He's not going to say kick me off the podcast. I already have my week one bet in the holster. I'm saving it for next week or down the road. It's already that's been locked for a while. Well, we'll be talking week one on. on the Wednesday after Labor Day right before the Thursday night opener. Good friend, I gotta be honest. I don't know if you needed to build it up by burying the entire universe the way you did. I was sitting here. If you noticed that I was quiet for a while,

it's because you ever been to Pompeii in Italy, over there in Italy? And like when you're in Pompeii, I'm sure you've seen the pictures. You see the people who were literally like melted away by the lava. That was me. I was just like up here with my hands up in the, you know like i i thought you went to indianapolis early and you like went to the st amma st elmose and

got the the shrimp cocktail or something there joe and you were just it was so scorching hot you couldn't take it the indianapolis special there you know what i've never been to st elmos i've i've never been to the combine i wasn't important enough for serious xm to send me maybe maybe you and i are important enough this year for them to send us they typically send hanson and maybe we'll have a little extra cash if we hit this uh this the all these bet these four bets the indianapolis We can go around flaunting the cash. I don't know about that because the man is the self-procrant world's worst gambler. So he's laying out his case here.

I'm a low word. I'm on two of these four. Unprompted. So I mean, maybe maybe this is this year. He's turning it around. Yeah. This caveat, listen, if I give you a bet, wait, you know, a week after I place it because the odds will just get better.

So let me, let me put the action down first. Give it a week. The lines will juice up for you. You'll be feeling really great about it. But I have been to St. Elmo's. And like Tom said, when Anthony Richardson wins MVP this year, that's my big claim. I think it's going to happen. It's on me.

We'll fly out. We'll go get cocktails on the house. You know, maybe we'll live stream the shrimp going down. But I just, I'm off the Texans. Everybody's on the Texans. I don't believe it. You know, I got to see more than half a season of excellence from that team. And again, the fighting gardener men shoes last year were in.

it until the very end, until the very last play. They were right there. I think this is a great value. And paired together, my lean here is that they will win the South. And at the very least, I think Stuyken will win Coach of the Year if that happens. That's my, but I think the ceiling is they win the South. Anthony Richardson gets MVP. They probably don't give Stuyckin Coach of the Year if he wins MVP. So I think that's probably the ceiling of this bet that he pulls the South. And then the President. the MVP out and and they win the AFC South. But that's, that's where my head is. If you just hit one of these profitable bet here, I landed. You get all your money back plus, plus 10 bucks if you're a hundred dollar better. So it's, it's as they say, no risk. There's no risk at all to this.

No, no risk. Yeah, uh, yeah, probably not because we're going to end up on some hotline if you say that. Uh, now, now look, guys, if you want access to Tom Brawley's picks, good friend Trey throws is out here for free. He doesn't have anything behind the paywall, but Tom Brawley's been a winning better in the NFL the last few years. Use code score more for an NFL premium or all in subscription at Fantasy Points.com, which is going to cover not

just Tom Broley's future bets, but in season, all his against the spread, over unders, and the late week player props, which are always the ones where you can get a little bit of information to and better lines. And Joe, somebody did ask in our Discord like,

you're not going to give your bets out on the podcast first. No, that's all the bets will go on our discord first. That is the first spot they go. Then they go up on the website. And then I'll, you know, I'll talk about them eventually on the podcast. But anything that I give out, it will be given out on the

Discord and end on the website first before on the podcast. And we're not even going to have, we're recording this podcast on midweek. So we're not even going to have player props, which are player props, which are the majority of the bets that Tom Broley and Paul Kelly and all those guys make. Now, um,

I don't know if I would wager that you should put your wager on Good Friend Trey, but we'll see how he works out throughout this podcast. We're going to be back next week. This podcast lasted longer than Anthony Richardson's rookie season. So next week, we're going to have to talk about some of the player awards, some of the player futures over unders, things like that. This has been the inaugural edition of the Best Best Bed podcast at Fantasy Points.

And remember, we're not wise. for just guys.