Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Thursday Night Plays + The Electric Company Shut Off Trey's Power

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Nothing else is Rees. The Best Betts podcast here at Fantasy Points Podcast Network and Fantasy Points Now, it has been a harrowing week and a half two. I don't even know what day it is. I think we're recording on Wednesday. You can figure that out yourself because the Saints literally just announced that Spencer Rattler is going to be making his first career start. And we'll maybe talk about that game a little bit with the best bets here. I am Joe Dolan. That's Tom Brawley. I had been displaced by Hurricane Haleen for over a week in terms of either not being in my home or not having power or not having Internet or some combination of those three.

And I want to understand that everybody here who's listening who might be affected by Hurricane Milton or has family members who are affected by Hurricane Milton, we are thinking of you at fantasy points just a horrific couple of weeks in the southeast of the United States. So take care, everybody. Please make sure you do that. And hopefully we provide you a little bit of a reprieve if you're going through something. T-Bro, I am glad to be back. Good friend Trey filled in last week. Unfortunately, I'm not sure it went too well. Maybe he's retaining his title as the world's worst gambler because he is in a precarious situation right now. And we will hear from him a little bit later.

But Tom, we have a Thursday night football game. and it is a divisional matchup, and it is a damn good one, an important one, between a 2- and 3-49ers team that probably hasn't played as poorly as its record, against a 3-2 Seahawks team that might not be playing as well as its record, or at least a 3-2 Seahawks team that started 3-0, that might not have been playing at 3-0 level and now are kind of back to where they should be. This is a really important game for the 49ers who, you know, I know our data charters for Fantasy Points data have said that the 49ers really aren't playing as poorly as their two and three record would indicate.

This is a very, very interesting divisional game, always hard to handicap divisional games. The 49ers are three and a half point favorites on the road. I don't have a bet on the total or the side in this game. By the way, the total is sitting at 49 and a half, 49, which is a really high for a Thursday night game. I don't know if I have a read on that, Tom. And in terms of the way the market's moving, is that hook going to remain on the three and a half? Yeah, I think so.

It's, I think it may have even started at three and worked its way up to three and a half. So, I mean, it might be one of those where some threes do pop up. If you, if you are looking to get on that 49er side, that's the side I think I'm leaning towards here. I'll have my official pick and the staff pick. So I need to dig into it a little bit more. But I was on the Cardinals side last week, felt. very fortunate to get a cover on that one,

but they ended up winning outright as well. So this 49ers team has held big leads in two of their losses and gave it away here against, you know, divisional opponents as well against the Cardinals and Rams. So they're putting themselves in a tough spot here. Now they have to go on the road. They don't want to fall behind by two games to the Seattle Seahawks. As you said, Joe, I mean, it's been kind of,

You know, they beat some cupcakes early in the season, and they've been exposed a little bit. Detroit on Monday night football in week four and then getting beaten by a Giants team that was massive underdogs without their star rookie player, Malik neighbors last week. Just an embarrassing performance there. So could be a spot where, you know,

Seattle bounced back after maybe they were looking ahead of that Giants game a little bit, started thinking about this 49ers game in week. week six, but this is as good as it gets on a Thursday night. This is, this is, we've got a nice high total here, a competitive, we've had these Seattle and San Francisco games in the past in these primetime games. So they've been fun to watch. So looking forward to this game. And I'm with, I'm thinking three and a half laying it with the 49ers, but probably going to stay away from this game. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not betting on this, but I do have a prop bet on, on Thursday,

night football time let's see here look I'm back I didn't have any best bets last week okay my record on the year is the same as it was heading into week into week five I am six six and I had a no action bet because Tankdale didn't play in week four but I have um I have a bet here on Brandon Ayuk the man with the great ass he's got great ass he had a big game finally that we've been anticipating last week. Debo Samuel, he's got a shitty ass. His ass, he's not that kind of, he's not the kind of player. By the way, we're talking about average separation score.

Yes. For new listeners, that's our stat up at fantasy points and fantasy points data, average separation score, which we called ass. But Brandon Ayuk, great ass. Debo Samuel, badass. And in terms of badass, it is not good in our ass to have a badass. Anyway, Brandon Ayyuk, 8 for 147 last week, Tom, 8 for 176, and he scored two touchdowns against the Seahawks last season. The Seahawks have been a defense you can attack on the perimeter.

I believe they're allowing a top 10 in terms of fantasy points, yards per route run on the perimeter to wide receivers. Brandon Ayuk had a very palatable number for me. I have Brandon Ayuk over the 65 and a half receiving yards against Seattle on Thursday night football. Yeah, I like that. We just saw Darius Slayton go for 122 yards in this matchup last week. And then James and Williams, it was all on one play, but 70-yard touchdown pass. Hey, we'll take that. That would get you over 65 and a half in a Rieke Wollen.

It looks like he's going to miss this game. I think he's already been announced as out. So one of their top corners. So they're down a little bit at the cornerback position. So liking that prop. That's always the tough part. here with the 49ers. There's going to be one, maybe two of these guys left out because now we have Joanne Jennings also in the mix. I'm also going to this passing game with the 49ers. I'm looking at

George Kittle. We've seen him erupt against the Seahawks team in some spots in the last couple of years. He loves playing against the Seahawks. Birthday boy as well. He just turned, I think, he just had his birthday here today, I think. So I wants to celebrate with a big night on Thursday night football. But Seattle's been getting beaten up a little bit here by tight ends. Leporta went for 53 yards. Theo Johnson had 48 yards last week. Theo Johnson has done nothing up until this point of the season. So the Seahawks are giving up the fifth most receiving yards per game, two tight ends.

And just noticing a little bit here, teams are playing back a little bit more, playing with more safeties in the middle of the field against the 49ers without Christian McCaffrey on the field. And I think it's also helping out George Kittle a little bit here. So looking at him, he's the tight end one so far this season. He's been up over this number twice. Been at 40 yards, though, four times. So maybe, and I'm also thinking, as you said, Joe, Debo, is this ass not looking great so far?

I think he's also maybe still hurting a little bit from this calf injury. He had that calf injury where he missed in week three. only four catches the last two weeks. Short week here. Maybe he has another slow game here. So maybe he's the guy that we're picking on as the one 49er that could be down again. So I'm taking George Kittle. You're taking Brandon Ayuk.

We're banking on Brock Purdy throwing a little bit in this 49 point total. So we're expecting some potential back and forth in passing games here. Oh, really excited to get to watch this one because, well, Tom, I haven't actually been able to sit. down and watch football. How have you been watching on a cell phone or like there was there's an iPad action I borrowed uh my neighbor's Wi-Fi on Sunday um and you know it wasn't perfect but I was able to get some action I was able to sit down and I forgot what Scott Hanson's voice sounded like because normally I'm doing the game day show you're usually hearing Paul Kelly's voice instead I'm here in Paul while I'm just hooting and hollering in the background but uh no I'm excited to

sit down and watch a football game. Presuming Spectrum, who's the worst company of all time, I don't think they're going to be sponsoring our podcast. No, nope, nope. Yeah, no advertisements from them here anytime. By the way, I'm just waiting. The only reason I still have them is because AT&T can't get out here

until later this month to install my new internet, because everybody is making the same decision I am. So that's the problem. Oh, I'm really sick of it. So I have, look, we have to pay the bills. I got to pay my new internet bill. Spectrum still charge me my bill. Don't worry, even though they didn't have internet on for me for two weeks.

They still charge me. So we're going to take a word from our sponsors, one of which I'm guessing is not Spectrum. But we will be back. And then we will talk about the Sunday and Monday slates. Okay, Tom, we have four teams on by this week. So obviously we are down to a 14 game slate. As of right now, for the first time this season on the Best Betts pod, I don't have an ATS pick in my in my picks.

I am all props that is unlike me because you and the guru and Justin Varns who does our defensive player props. You guys are the prop kings of fantasy points. And especially John's been killing it over. Absolutely. Like he had the hurricane hit him as well, I guess a couple of weeks ago. So he didn't even get to go on the air. He went nine and one on his picks that he would have given out on the air.

So yeah, he's been absolutely crushing it. Varns with his IDP, his defensive props. Ryan Heath as well. Yeah, Ryan's been great. Alex Pendergrass, he'll get heated up here soon. He's hit a couple of his same game parlays here. Just hasn't gotten the big legs just yet. But yeah, it's been going pretty well over at the site.

I'm hoping everybody's enjoying it right now. Get over there. Don't listen to Trey's picks. Listen to our picks if you want to win some money here. All right, Tom. So let's start with that Sunday slate. And I'm going to go to, I believe, what might be the highest totaled game on the entire slate. Look, I know we like Jaden Daniels as a prospect and we liked him as a fantasy football prospect.

It's been better than we could have anticipated for fantasy, even though Caleb Williams might be a little bit worse for fantasy than we've anticipated, everything going right for Jane Daniels right now. And he deserves a lot of credit for his level of play. We have Washington against Baltimore. Baltimore has been a complete fast-pass funnel defense. They've been excellent against the run, holding the running game to under three yards per carry. That being said, Jaden Daniels catchable throw rate per Jake Tribian fantasy points data,

85%. That is the highest of any quarterback since the 2021 season, which is when we started charting, really, fantasy points data. The Ravens do not get pressure on the quarterback. the eighth lowest PROE, which is pressure rate over expectation. Terry McClarn runs those deep routes. He hasn't scored more than 24 draft Kings fantasy points this year. We don't care about fantasy points. All we need is Terry McLaren to go up and over 57 and a half receiving yards. I love this game environment for Terry McClarn. I don't think the commanders are going to be able to run the ball with

Brian Robinson or Jeremy McNichols or whoever they have back there. What they will be able to do is complete the ball down the field with Jaden Daniels evading what little pressure the ravens get on him. I think Terry McLaren has a big game on Sunday against Baltimore. All right. I like that one. I actually have a couple of bets in this game as well. But first, before I get too deep, I got to, I do got a shout out good friend Trey. He was all over the commanders last week.

We had a little bit of a, you know, like a little bit of a discussion about basically the, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your preseason ratings on these teams and how quickly you adjust them. And I was a little slower on my adjustments of the commanders up in my and my rankings and the Browns down in my rankings. And boy, did he ever prove me on that one? He was correct, completely correct on that one. The Browns, I have officially sunk them in my rankings.

And the commanders, I've lifted them up by a couple more points here over the last couple of weeks. So now they're in a spot here where there's six and a half point underdogs. This is another fascinating spot because the Ravens were a team that were kind of dipping a little bit early in the season, but they're starting to surge here as well. So really looking forward to this game, but I did take an under on Brian Robinson. I couldn't believe they even had a line on them out there at 15.5, I believe the number was. So that's one to look for.

Hopefully it continues this. day up because I gave out the number and a little bit later in the evening, he was announced as a DNP at practice this week. So I was surprised they had that line out. That might be taken down, but could come back later in the week. As Joe said, we're thinking this is going to be probably more of a pass funnel type of game here. Baltimore's giving up the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs.

Brian Robinson is playing through a knee injury right now. Jeremy McNichols has also been mixing. in. So really like the under on Brian Robinson's rushing yards prop, even if it does come back up in the mid-40s or so. I still like the under on that one. And I also took Zach Hertz here. I know it's kind of gross, but 25 and a half is his number. The Ravens have begun of a major production to tight ends all season here, giving up the second most receiving yards per game. And this is, you know, it's kind of setting up that he could be more involved. here. He had eight targets last week.

Only converted two of them, but that was a pretty tough match up against the Browns. They're a very man-heavy team and should face more zone coverage this week. Should work out for Zachert. So I was looking at his receiving yards prop at 25 and a half. So like the passing games in this one, we're going with both of the big time receivers here for Washington, McLaren and Ertz over their props. If I'm chasing over props, Tom, I like chasing games that have big totals. are a number of games here with big totals this weekend. We have a couple over 50, that being the commanders and the ravens. We also have the lions and the cowboys over 50.

Interested to see if you have a play on that game, which might be the premier game of the week. This one's not nearly as high, but it's still high. The Packers and the Cardinals are sitting at 47 and a half for a total, and the Cardinals play a ton of cover three under Jonathan Gannon. I had Brett Whitefield on the Series XM morning show. Yes, I was back on the Sirius XM morning show. Thank you, T. By the way, for filling in just absolutely atrocious a couple of weeks for me. But in our Brett Whitefield spot on Wednesday this week,

he talked about how Jordan Love just crushes single high looks and especially cover three. Jordan Love's number is pretty high at 256.5. I still like the over against the Arizona Cardinals in a projected high scoring game. Tucker Kraft has emerged. As of Wednesday, Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs were back at practice for the Packers, so they might actually have more reinforcements at the wide receiver position this weekend. At least one of those guys, you would think Dobbs will be back after the single word's pulled out of all time. I let the ball.

Yeah, like, come on, dude. like you've been a decent player. You've been a good player, but like, Jordan Love has said it. We don't have a number one receiver. Well, they do now in Jaden Reed. But though, I like, I like Jordan Love over the 256 and a half outside of the first quarter in his return game against Minnesota. He's been excellent. 256 and a half is a number. I think Jordan Love can hit in this game. It is a little bit high, but I really like the schematic matchup for Jordan Love. Yeah, I mean, he's also been hurt by all these drops right now.

I mean, his adjusted completion percentage is up over 70. So he's been, Don Tavian Wix has heard him a little bit and, you know, just overall his receivers have let them down here. I'm also going into that Packers passing game as well, though. I'm taking Jaden Reed over 59 and a half receiving yards. That's at minus 115 at Draft Kings. There are some numbers out there. You know, I give out my picks in our fantasy points betting discord first. And there were some 56 and a halfs out there, super juiced up like minus one.

35 at Sears and MGM. So make sure you look around on that one. You know, the best number of the bigger books was 59.5 on Jane Reed. I'd like this up into the low 60s, maybe even in the mid-60s because we haven't projected for 80 receiving yards. It goes back to your cover three and also the Cardinals play a lot of cover four as well. They're top 10 rates in both of those coverages. And Jaden Reed absolutely destroys those coverages, averaging four point. 0.87 yards per route run. And he's seeing 0.27 targets per route run on those,

against those two coverages on 63 routes. So, and the weakness for this Cardinals defense is in the slot here with K-Trail Clark, who's giving up a league high, 40.45 fantasy points per dropback. And seeing a league high, 0.25 targets per route run so far. So we're both attacking this Cardinal secondary. And you're going with the Jordan Love because he loves going against the cover three. And I like Jordan, Jaden Reed because whenever Jordan One Love wants to crush cover three, he goes to Jaden Reed. So both probably if you're looking to do a same game parlay, it might be something to correlate here. Tom, us fantasy bros, we'll get to some of your other best best, but us fantasy bros, I think we like to take our overs.

And I just think I just think it's general. Remember, our little motto of this podcast is we're not wise, we're just guys. And when you're not a wise guy, you like to root for points and you like to root for overs. And I think that's honestly, some of the biggest problems we can run into as betters who aren't really, look, I'm not a professional better by any stretch of the imagination. So I think one of the things I can run into is overs and being overconfident in over. in overs and thinking of what can go right. Yeah. One of my favorites this week is an under.

Okay. I like it. Now look, I understand Philadelphia Eagle fans. You have spent the entire byweek bitching about the defense. And I understand it. I completely understand it. There might be a change. They might be putting Cooper DeGine in the slot instead of Avanti Maddox.

The Eagles play press coverage at the lowest rate in the NFL. What if I postulate though, Tom? What if I posit that it doesn't matter? Because Deshawn Watson's the worst quarterback in the NFL. He's not the worst. And look at the numbers. They don't lie. They're all the worst in league.

Worse than Bryce Young. His passing yardage number is 192.5. And against an Eagle defense that in a couple of games this year has offered zero resistance. I understand why you might be thinking this is a get right. spot for Deshawn Watson. But my whole take here is what's more likely? Deshawn Watson throws for 300 or Deshawn Watson gets benched. And I'm a little surprised he hasn't been benched already. As a matter of fact, if you're a big Philly sports nihilist, you might sit back and say, here's what's going to happen. We're going to kick Deshawn's ass in the first half. They're going

to bench him and James is going to come out and beat the Eagles in the second half. I guess, Believe me, I can see that happening. But if that happens, it doesn't matter if the Eagles win or lose the game, Deshawn's still going to go under the number. The number is 192 and a half. Tom, I was a little surprised it was that high. I think he goes under this number, and I think there is a better than 50% chance.

If he's going, if he's trending to go under this number, he's going to get benched, and it's not even going to have a chance to hit in garbage time. So I like this under for Deshawn Watson at 192.5. With the, I believe there are nine point underdogs in Philadelphia. This is one of those lines that's moved basically a touchdown since the summer. So yeah, nothing I can really say to add to that. He hasn't hit 200 yards yet this season, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt.

So he's going to need a lot of attempts to get to 200 yards and get over if he would, considering his yards per attempt so far this season. So I also would think, I mean, if the Eagles have some sort of, to Pulse. They've got to see this team limping into the into the link here. And they should want to bury these guys. So yeah, I totally agree with that one. That's a one way action on the on the under for under for Dishon Watson. So terms of you want another under prop? I have a couple of unders this this weekend. And that's actually on the the London game. It had some success with the London game last. week looking at DeAndre Swift under 59.5 rushing yards. But by the way, apparently one of the things I missed since I've been displaced by the hurricane is DeAndre Swift's the best running back in football all of a sudden. Yeah.

Where the hell do that come from? Apparently, I guess you just got to go against the Carolina Panthers to get right here last week. But even with his like two big games here the last two weeks, he's still averaging 3.2 yards per carry. And Jacksonville is, you know, if there's one thing that they have. been doing well is that they've been very good against the run and uh they're you know our fantasy points data 14th fewest adjusted yards per carry per attempt so far the season uh allowing just 3.8 yards

per carry uh and we've seen rochon johnson start to mix in here as well so uh i i don't yeah i think i don't i think swift may be people have probably elevated him over the last two weeks but i think there's he's somewhere in between what we saw through the first three weeks and what we've seen the last two weeks. So looking to bet on his under this week. And then Christian Kirk, he's been, he's back the last couple of weeks, but I'm looking at under 50 and a half receiving yards for him. Chicago plays a lot of cover three.

And he just, he does very little against cover three. Averaging 0.61 yards per route run and just 0.11 targets per route run against cover three. And also expecting Evan Ingram back this week. So I would think that he sees a little bit more action. And so, yeah, looking at Christian Kirk to go under his receiving yards prompt. I want to go back to the Eagles Browns game a little bit here, Tom, because I know you're not in a state where you can bet coaches fired. As a matter of fact, though, you would have cashed your coach Robert Salabet.

So props to you in our staff yearly predictions, you bet on Robert Salad to be the first. not that was uh that was uh brett whitefield i think he uh he actually he actually i cannot do it i think in in michigan he can he said he was 40 to one uh sala was uh before the season so congrats to brett i think he uh he got a nice fat one there on that you know sala getting fired in week five here we into week six so um if you are somewhere where you can get next coach fired odds is there is there a little way you can play this Eagles Browns game and like kind of finagle your way you're like the Eagles should win I think the most likely outcome is Eagles are going to win the Eagles are going to blow them out

after the buy the Eagles got healthy by the way AJ Brown Devante Smith Lane Johnson all are back this weekend but if the Eagles lose to a Brown's team with Deshawn Watson and the by the way the Browns have 20 players on their injury report could this? be curtains for Nick Siriani is what I'm asking. So is there a way you can kind of play this as like, I'm going to bet the Eagles, but I'm going to hedge it by putting like a half a unit on Nick Siriani to be the next coach fired. I don't know if that's something you want to get into if you're not dealing with big totals, but that's the way I look at it. If the Eagles come out and lose this game and Deshawn Watson looks like Houston Texans to Sean Watson, Nick Siriani

might be sleeping with the fishes. Yeah, I think certainly the public has already turned against them and it's starting to feel like the locker room, I mean, if it hadn't already last year, it certainly turned against them. And a loss against this Cleveland team that's been pretty, it's been without a pulse here for all the entire season. So I kind of like that little hedge bet there.

If you're rooting for your Eagles, but I also think that, you know, that he might, you know, Siriani might be the next coach fire. And I don't, I don't know if any books actually have that lineup yet or I'm sure somebody might, but might be worth looking at. But I also got to think that he is probably a pretty significant favorite, although Antonio Pierce might be, might be pushing for that right now. He's, he's grasping at straws out there. He's got Devante Adams wanting to get traded and he's making the switch to Ind O'Connell. So I think he might be on pretty hot on his heels as well. Yeah, I'm looking at Odd Shark, by the way, that has some, that has some odds up.

The next coach fired on Doug Peterson is basically one to one. He's plus 125. Nick Siriani's plus 400. So like there's, I think people can see how wrong goes. You know, if the Eagles have an easy four game stretch coming up. Yes. Nick Sirioni could coach himself completely off of this list or he can coach himself out of a job. Yeah, that's the thing with an easy schedule.

Yeah, people, that also means you have expectations. to win. So, you know, for these next coach fired, if you're looking at how things could go wrong, it's because it's playing an easy schedule and they screw up a couple of games here and get some fired. So, yeah, we'll see if Doug, I mean, I think they have, don't they, are they doing the back-to-back London games? I don't think they would fire him in the middle. In the middle of the, could you imagine just, you hire Belichick and fly him out to one? Yeah, that's, you're like, obviously they probably would promote somebody from this, you know, within the staff. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me that they would fire him in, you know, in the middle of the two London games.

So, yeah, if things go really south for the Eagles this week against the Browns, I could see Siriani beating Peterson to the chase there. That's essentially what I'm saying is like, I think if like you look at the circumstances, the entire NFL world is just talking about how shitty Deshaun Watson is in more ways than one. if he comes out and beats you or if James comes off the bench and beats you, like I actually think like I think there's a, I think there's a greater than 50% chance that if the Eagles lose this game, Nick Siriani does not coach another game. That's honestly where I'm at. So I was just wondering if there was a creative way.

This sounds like something that Trey had cooked up in the lab. I mean, you're going to have to bounce this off a tray. I bet he's going to love this little bit. He's dealing with a predicament here, As a matter of fact, he's behind the glass. I didn't, like, he disappeared for a little bit. I know he is in dire straits. I can't even see him.

In Iowa. We're going to check in with good friend Trey when we come back after a word from our sponsors and see how he's doing because I don't think it's very well right now. The world's worst gambler, good friend Trey, we've been calling him that. He's been calling himself that. Now it feels like he's actually having real life implications. for being the world's worst gambler. Trey, I can't even see you.

What the hell's going on? Like, uh, what's happening? Or something. Yeah, I, uh, I wish I could. Uh, you know, we weren't, uh, yeah, we weren't able to keep the lights on with my plays last week. Uh, you've been trying. The, the electric company, uh, came in and they shut me down and, uh, they turned me into an underdog in my own home, which, uh, is a little bit fitting.

Uh, and I'll let you know why very soon. So wait a minute. You don't have electricity. You just lost internet briefly. Why are you trying to do an impression to me? Because this was not a fun week. And let me let me be. I'm just glad to be back and having light and something. Maybe you should take a week off a week out of the lab, man, if they're turning your electricity off. All right, here's another thing. Or maybe you should tell some of our bets that we've been getting out of the site. How are you recording a podcast with no electricity? Yeah, well, I'm glad yes. Thankfully, thankfully last week I was on the commanders minus three. So that a little bit of money I won from that I took. I went to the electric company. I said, listen, this is all I got.

You need to do me a solid. So they hooked me up. They gave me a little small generator that I can get some stuff hooked up to. So it might be chopping in and out of here, you know, while we're doing this. But just bear with me. I only had to give them a little bit of money. And I had to promise that they could sponsor this segment. So I got to do that as well.

All right. So who is it? Who's the sponsor? Should we get it in there? I mean, get the plug in here. Here we go. So this segment is going to be called the turn the damn lights back on. Home Dog, Slop Parlay of the Week, sponsored by Lynn County Rural Electric Cooperative.

That's what we're going with. Thank you, Lynn County Cooperative. I can't believe. you better get a winner here this week. I mean, we need to get, we can't continue to do this without lights on. I mean, or we're just going to have to kick you off the show. Maybe that's what we kicked me off the show last week.

No, no, by the way, a major thank you to our electrical workers who let me tell you something. This was unprecedented here in North Carolina and South Carolina and the electrical workers who are basically ping ponging between the Carolinas and Florida's right now, just doing unbelievable work. And hey, hey, maybe some of that over time. time is going into tray slop a home dog parley tray all right let's hear it uh you the lab was working by candlelight here you somehow we're pulling up the odds at least your cell phone's still working i i guess what in the hell are you cooking up yeah so like i said they turned me into an

underdog in my own home so i thought hmm underdog home what can we cook up this week so i am going with a home dog parlay three teams that are underdogs at home that i think are going to get the win team number one thursday night wow seattle seattle the thing is fellas this is not the 49ers of old okay i'm i'm just there's something not right here something not right something fishy going on okay this defense does not strike fear in the heart of anybody. Okay. This is not,

this is not the old 49ers. Okay, we're in a new era of this, I dare I say soft 49ers defense. Okay, soft. Pull them out. I think,

I think Gino's gonna give them the business. I think they're gonna light it up and, yeah, I'm gonna take Seattle at home. That's, that's, so we're gonna know right after Thursday. I love how you love getting these Thursday legs in there.

Just to know if you, you have a chance early in the week. So I like that. I like that. So let me let me let me let me get let me let me get to be able to I got to be able to pivot you know. Well that's what I was about to say. Are you going to throw out the pivot on on on Twitter or or in our subscriber discord if the Thursday leg doesn't hit in this parlay? I mean yeah I've been eye in some I've been eye on some additional slop this week. So that will definitely go for for better or worse we'll go in the discord or maybe just find another home underdog and throw it on to the yeah. I mean I guess you still have a two leg parlay to go. All right. So there

are two other legs with this parlay, correct? Yes, I'm going to go ahead and take the Denver Broncos on Sunday at home, okay? Same situation here with the Chargers. What are we so scared about that we're going to make them a road favorite? I don't see it at all, okay? I mean, just Justin Herbert, they're not throwing the ball a ton. We're terrified of what? J.K. Dobbins?

We're terrified of Justin Herbert. This is a good defense in Denver, okay? These guys are, you know, and Bo Nix, 20, maybe 15% of the time could put a good game together, you know. Maybe we get that 15%. And if he's having a good day, I think they destroy the Chargers. Wow. So I'm not betting on him to have a good day. I think if he has a normal day, it's a close game.

I think if he has a good day, it's not even in question. I think they beat the Chargers at home. So Denver on Sunday, that's going to be your second leg. Hey, look, I mean, I like that one. I liked Bo Knicks's fire. here. Maybe it's a little, like yelling at Sean Peyton. Maybe it's a little misplaced. Maybe it's a little liquid courage that's helping him. But nonetheless, I liked the attitude I saw out of Bo Nix. Even if his play hasn't justified it yet, that there was a little something there that I like to see

at a Nix. And maybe it was just the uniforms, the Orange Crush uniforms that I really liked seeing because they were fantastic last Sunday. But the Broncos and the Broncos were a team. The Broncos were a Tom, I cannot figure out. Oh, yeah, this is, I've been wrong on them every week so far this year. But I do kind of like this side. I was actually eyeing up maybe the plus three with the Broncos. Chargers have been a team that's kind of lived on these big explosive runs from JK Dobbins early in the year and some big plays down the field from Quentin Johnston.

So I do think they could be a team that regress a little bit out of the buy. But that's the one thing that kind of does scare me. They're going to be a little healthier, Herbert, the two offensive tackles, getting fresh off the byweek, but I do kind of like this leg with the Broncos. Third leg here, no surprise I'm going to this one.

We're going to take the New York Jets on Monday night at home. They fired the coach. Here's the thing, guys. What do we know about Aaron Rogers? We know that Aaron Rogers is not going to take the fall for anything. He doesn't want to be held accountable. What's the way to do that? Sala goes, you win on Monday night.

All of a sudden, everybody's feeling like this was the right decision to make. Aaron Rogers, he's the hero again. We're on the right path. We're moving forward. I also probably shouldn't speculate, but I will. Josh Allen last week, he was knocked unconscious. I believe. I 100% believe.

You're not a doctor, but you play one on a podcast here. I am not a medical professional. But he was unconscious on the field, and they put him back in the game. Crazy to me. There's something going on there. I think probably you don't just get up and get over that in a second. That was a nasty hit he took to the head in 100% seriousness. I can't imagine that he's, you know, even if they're saying he is, I can't imagine he's, you know, in the best frame of mind right now.

That was a nasty, nasty hit he took. And they're lacking weapons. The bills right now, again, this isn't the bills of last year or two years ago. they're lacking weapons, especially with Khalil Shakir out last week. He didn't look like he had anybody to go to. Kionn Coleman's not there yet. Dalton Kincaid, making some plays, but he's also not the man that was promised this year. So I'm a little worried about the bills, and I'm more so convinced Aaron Rogers is not about

to take the fall and say, hey, I'm the problem here in New York. So he's got to go out. He's got to get this win on Monday night. I like it. The world is supposedly falling in New York, but if they win this game, they're tied they're in first place if they beat the bill. So we all, this is always a classic spot.

These, these teams that fire their coaches in season. They always get these nice bounds. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but at least against the spread, they're phenomenal against the spread. And this is a pretty tight one here at two and a half. So might as well go with the whole,

go for the whole thing with the money line and take them, take the Jets as underdogs here. So I actually do like this one. So this is a money line parlay, correct? Not just an ATS parlay? money line parlay the home dogs getting the win celebrating in their hometown sleeping in their own beds giving their electricity back yes and then once my electricity comes back you don't want to see the type of stuff i'm going to be cooking up i took the electricity for granted you know

now i'm here in the dark but you know what we're going to get it going i do by the way do not take electricity for granted i have learned that in the last yeah i know i hope i'm not i hope i'm not next it feels like you know the first two have gone down here am i next am i i i'm gonna be fighting to you know for a light here in the next couple of weeks here aren't i what does that money line parley pay out good friend trey yes that's going to be plus 1,197 is what that's going to pay wow so not a bad little payout and i will say this uh with with the obvious serious situation going on around the country if i do hit this parley this week i will be donating all of the winnings to hurricane relief

with Milton on the way. So I did want to mention that. I know we like to have fun, but all jokes aside, that's where the money will be going this week. If I can manage the smack the big one. I got to put a bet down on this too. Now I could maybe do a little donation as well.

We're going to hedge it all, though? This game is on Monday night. What if you get the first two legs and sitting out there? You're going to hedge it all? You're going to stick with it on Monday night? That's 24 hours to wait for Monday night football to come around. I'm not much into the, the hedging or the cashing out.

That's how we roll no cash out. Yeah, scared money don't make no money. You know, I'm not worried about it. Plus, the only thing that I feel amazing about is that Aaron Rogers is not going to want to take the fall for what's going on in New York. So he has to. He has to play well. They have to win. His ego will not let it happen.

One thing I actually like about the Monday night game, I couldn't, I didn't, this was not available before we started a record or at least when I did my research for recording for the best bets. So this is not an official best bet. but I like Josh Allen to throw an interception in this game. The Bills could win this game and the way, you know, he's been playing, Khalil Shakir, if he's not back, nobody can separate. Josh Allen to throw a pick is minus 130. Look, we've seen Josh Allen have games where he throws a bonehead pick. T. Broin still puts up 40 fantasy points.

So like there are multiple ranges of outcomes where Josh Allen throwing a pick can pay off here. He doesn't necessarily need to play a bad game for that to happen. Yeah, he's not a best bet. He likes to do it quite a bit. So, yeah, I kind of like that one as well. Jets secondary is pretty nasty as well. So Monday night football, he might be looking to make a big player too. After an ugly performance last week, getting a little more aggressive.

So yeah, maybe an interception as well. Throw that in there. So it has been a pretty harrowing week. And for anybody who's down in Florida especially and still in Western North Carolina, one of the things that I've really tried to get some perspective on is like, look, my week and a half sucked, you know, it sucked and be so disconnected from the NFL, but I have it so much better than so many other folks have, and I cannot take that for granted. So if you are affected by Helene, if you are affected by Milton, if you have anything else going on in your

lives, my thoughts are with you. And I want to thank everybody for the kind words and reaching out in the last couple weeks when I was off the series show and off the podcast. I want to thank good friend Trey for covering for me last week, even if it ended up with his lights off. I want to thank Tom Broly for covering for me in so many different ways over the last couple of weeks, whether it be on the website, on the radio show and everything, and just thank everybody for reaching out. But you always have to remember here on the Best Bet Show at the Fantasy Points Podcast Network, where you are not wise. We're just guys. Have a good one, everybody, and hopefully the lights stay on for you.