Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Thursday Night Props + Davante Adams Opens Up a Can of Whoop-Ass

Episode Date: September 5, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Age Curves Article By Ryan Heath - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out#/ Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Thinking About Thinking Substack - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/lets-think-about-thinking FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

for NFL. This is the best best podcast at fantasy points and fantasy points now. Wonderful to be with everybody. For the second time in a month, I am battling some sort of cold cough, whatever it is. I'm guessing it's allergies at this point. So forgive me if I sound a little bit like Tom Waits on this program, but I feel way better than I did on Monday. Tom Browley, what's up, man? It's week one of the NFL season. I just want to give everybody a rundown to what the best bet show is going to be like in season. We're going to talk Thursday night, maybe a little propage, side total, whatever we like from that game. Then we're going to take a little bit of a break, then talk the rest of the slate. And then at the end, we're going to bring on contractually obligated to

bring on good friend Trey as he's going to vomit all over the podcast. He's already taking a huge L on one of his crazy parlays or crazy bets that he's made. And we will get to that. But good friend Trey will be in later. to cook up another heater for week number one. T-Brill, we are, well, I guess when this is posted tonight, man. It's here. At the Chiefs. It's here.

I can't believe it, but it's here. Yeah, Joe, I hope I don't join you on the IR list. I was around my brother-in-law this weekend. Apparently, he has COVID, so waiting for that, waiting for that this weekend to come along. But hopefully I avoid it and I'm doing all right. But I'm feeling good overall, though, because since we got some football coming back, We even have a Friday night game with the Eagles and Packers playing down in Brazil. So two monster games right out of the gates.

And the NFL did it right. All the primetime games are fantastic. We got Detroit and the Rams on Sunday night. And then those poor Jets fans, they're making them play on Monday night again. They're going to get their jerseys on and everything to see Aaron Rogers. But hopefully it goes a little better this time around. So fun slate. ahead. We finally made it.

Got a nice little appetizer with the college football last weekend. Ready for some NFL football here this weekend. So let's talk about this Thursday night game. And I think one of the big stories going into it is did the Ravens blow their window? Did the Ravens like they had the home game last year? Lamar was MVP. The chiefs were not the powerful offensive chiefs, at least for much of the season, that they had been.

And the Ravens kind of lay an egg in the AFC championship game. Now we get the rematch in Arrowhead for this game. Tom, we're looking at the Ravens, catching three pretty much across the board. You can find a two at Hard Rock for the Chiefs if you really like the Chiefs. I don't have a bet on the side in this game, Tom. I do have a couple of props. But from just kind of a general handicapping standpoint,

how do you feel about this game? Yeah, this one's. Sat at three since these are week one games. Honestly, all these games have look ahead lines since over the summer. But specifically these week one games, they've been basically out since early May whenever the release the schedule. And this has been sitting three all summer. But a lot of juice towards the Ravens, minus 120. I'm seeing at Fandle, minus 118 at Draft Kings.

But every time, it's touched two and a half a couple of times. and it's been kind of bought back immediately. So it's like one of these 2.7-5 lines. We'll see if it gets to 2.5. That's how I would personally play it. I think I'd play it with the Chiefs. If we do see some 2-5s on game day here, we're recording Wednesday,

but this is posting Thursday. So maybe there's already some 2-5s out there. So that would be the way I'm looking at this. But if the line kind of stays the way it is, Yeah, I'm kind of on the Chiefs here, minus three. Didn't go well for them last year on the ring night against the Lions. Of course, the Lions were, I think, six or six and a half point underdogs in that game. And they came in.

The infamous Cadarius Tony game, he's dropping passes all over the field, giving free points away to the Detroit Lions, and they snuck away with the victory in that game. But, yeah, the Ravens have a little bit of revenge on their minds. They were the four-point favorites in that AFC championship game. And the story coming out of that game was six RB carries for Justice Hill and Gus Edwards in that game. So I think Todd Munkin might change that this time around. Derek Henry will probably have six carries himself on the first drive that the Ravens have the ball this year in the opening game.

So it should be a fun one. No major injuries. Marquis Brown is the big one, I guess. He's already been considered out here. So other than that, both teams are coming in pretty healthy here for Thursday night football. So Tom, we actually all have overs in this game. You and I have overs in this game. And all on the Ravens.

And none of them are involving Derek Henry. I'm going to let you kick it off because you have two. I just have one bet for this game. And I want everybody to know. We are going to track it. We're on this podcast. We are not wise. We're just guys.

But I'm going to track it. Every wager that I talk about that is a best bet I will make. If you say, Tom, we'll say something like, I don't go to the window with this, but I was looking at if we didn't make the wager. And I want everybody to know that I am actually making these bets, a one unit bet, whatever that unit might be for you. But let's kick it off, Tom, for one of your favorite Thursday night bets tonight with the ball tonight yeah with the Baltimore ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs well fantasy points our data team just released ass average separation score uh and it's one of our big you know our big off season you know one of the things that we've been working on all off season and uh one of the players

that ranks really highly in ass is Rashad Bateman uh you wouldn't think it because he had a pretty small role last year he's only running about you know routes 52% of the time. But they let Odell Beckham go. This offseason didn't really do a whole lot to really replace Oddo Beckham. So I'm looking at his over. It was 27 and a half when I gave it out on our Discord. It looks like the best number that is out there right now is a 28.5 at Caesars.

But looking towards him to, I just think his routes are going to go up this year. He's another year removed from that Liz Frank injury. He already graded out pretty well last year. He just didn't get enough targets from Lamar Jackson. But Ravens went out, gave him a contract, extended his contract. He's getting talked up here all off season long from everybody, including Lamar Jackson, the last week. So thinking that he'll have a bigger role this time around,

I know that hasn't burned us in the past with Rashad Bateman. We're all waiting for that breakout performance. but it doesn't even need a breakout performance. He just needs, you know, three catches in this game to get up over this number. It isn't the easiest matchup against the Chiefs. They shut down a lot of outside receivers last year, but Legerius Sneed has moved on. Still pretty good secondary overall for the Chiefs,

but I just think that Rashad Bateman is going to have a little bigger role in this offense moving forward, and this line is kind of lined like his old role from last season. So give me Rashad Bateman over his receiving yours. So I think one of the big question marks that's offseason for the Ravens, if anybody, is who's going to be the predominant third target behind Zayflowers and Mark Andrews? And Rashad Bateman, I think, is a justifiable option here, Tom. But sometimes when I hit a prop in a standalone game,

I like to go to somebody who can make a prop happen with one play. And I look at this. here's a quote. I would say he has put together a fantastic training camp. This is from John Harbaugh on August 11th. To your point, another great day. He connected on a bunch of deep balls out there. He's been spectacular with the route running details. I feel like the timing has been fantastic with him. He's just a very special athlete. He comes to work every day, ready to go to work, so we're really proud of him and we'll keep going. This is the player in question, talking about how he finished last season. I'd say it helped carrying over the confidence. Obviously,

want to hold on to everything that you did well and obviously benefit from the cons that you have, but this is a new year. We're on to bigger goals because obviously everything didn't pan out the way we wanted to. So obviously, I'm keeping in mind that obviously what I did last year wasn't enough. This isn't Mike Tomlin talking. This is Isaiah likely. 15 and a half receiving yards for Isaiah likely, Baltimore Ravens. I think there's a legitimate chance by the end of the season. He is third on this team in receiving. I think he gets it done. 15 and a half receiving yards. You know, John Harbaugh talking about how he could do it with a deep ball. He was talking about deep balls and how he was connecting with Lamar Jackson in practice. One catch could put you over for Isaiah

likely. And I think he has more catches than that in this game. Give me Isaiah likely over the 15 and a half receiving yards. Okay. Yeah, it's, we're kind of attacking the same kind of prop here. You know, we're thinking maybe they play a little more two tight ends this year. They bring in Derek Henry, Rashad Bateman and likely could be on the field a little bit more. So I like that. All right. My other bet was Justice Hill. This is real sexy here.

Justice Hill over seven and a half yards. I think it's up to eight and a half. It's not rushing or receiving? Oh, receiving yards. I should. You know, it's the rushing prop I think is in the high 20s. But they haven't done anything at running back. They have just Derek Henry here.

Rasin-Alees banged up. Owen got, you know, broke his foot in the last preseason game. So I'm thinking this is going to be a two-man backfield here. They come in as three-point road underdogs. So might be chasing points. Could be some situations where he's out in the field. And we think back to last year, different team, but Derek Henry in Tennessee, he only out-snapped Tage Spears by six snaps last year. So he's not a guy that's going to be out there in passing situations. And so I think Justice Hill is going to be on the field a little bit more than people think tonight against the

against the Kansas City Chiefs. And if we go back and look at the, how he was, you know, deployed last year at the end of the, at the end of the season, he was out there in a lot of passing situations easily went up over this prop in five or six of his last games, including the playoffs when they were chasing the chiefs, the entire, entire game. You know, the chief scored on the first possession of that game.

And so I'm just looking at Justice Hill. It's not going to be sexy. We haven't projected for 15 or 16 receiving yards. Just need a catch, a long catch or just two shorter catches to get up over seven and a half. Best numbers, eight and a half now still out there. So looking for Justice Hill to have a little bit of a role here tonight. Some good stuff for the Thursday night football game. We're going to pay the bills here.

We'll come back and talk about the rest of the week one NFL slate. All right, T-Brow. So we have a Friday night game. and then we have a normal slate of Sunday and Monday action. And I want to throw out what this segment's going to look like on podcast going forward. Usually by the time we record this, we're not going to have a whole lot of Sunday props. They start to trickle out Wednesday afternoon. But injuries, uncertain situations are going to affect that.

So while we do have week one props because they have been up for a while now, starting week two, week three, we're really not going to have a whole. lot. So I need to direct everybody. If you're a prop better, and Tom Broly is, you want to go to FantasyPoints.com, NFL premium subscription, use code score more. The hierarchy of how prop bets go is Tom immediately posts them in our subscriber discord.

Then he updates the article and then maybe we'll talk about them on the radio or a podcast. But instant, when Tom makes a wager, he puts it instantly in the discord. so you could get it before a line moves, get on the right side of that movement. So it's always important to be in our subscriber betting discord at FantasyPoints.com. So Tom, we're going to go through the slate, and you mentioned to me, you didn't feel overly confident in any of the totals or the sides here. I have a couple plays, but yeah, this is a, the problem with week one, it's tough. Like, these lines have been out there.

They've been bet into a good spot. they came out in mid-May, basically. So, you know, this is one week. There's not a lot of injury situations. So we're not going to see a whole lot of dramatic line movements. These lines are pretty much in the right spot. I did find one game on Monday that I bet that, you know, we got a little bit of good line movement on here since then.

But, I mean, I'll continue to look at it. Like, even this Friday night game, if we start to see some threes pop up for the Packers, I think that would be a good spot to potentially jump in and bet the Packers. This line is kind of teetering. It's two and a half, but the Eagles do have some juice there. I don't know if it's going to hold very long at three, but that's a spot where I could see potentially jumping in here

if we get a full field goal with the Packers. But, you know, we'll continue to look at them all weekend. There could be some spots to pop up, but these lines have been beat into some good spots. The opportunities might not be as strong as they are moving forward. All right. So let me, let me try to talk you into, and believe me, I am not the betting expert here. You are. So I have these squarest takes you possibly can have. So keep that in mind. I don't know, Trey is coming on the show later. He might have even square. He's a rhombus. You know, I don't even know. I don't even want to talk about square with him. But look, I just read Scott D. Benedetto. He's on staff at Fantasy Points. He's a former scout for the Cleveland Browns. And he really likes to analyze the trench matchups. And, you know, I do it statistically.

He's doing it based on feel and experience. And he really feels that there is a big mismatch between the Lions offensive line and the Rams defensive line. He ranked the Lions as his best offensive line in the NFL. He has the Rams as his fourth worst defensive line. Obviously, there's no Aaron Donald here. A year ago, Detroit was fourth in yards per carry in zone and eighth in man yards per carry. while the Rams were 17th and 20th, respectively on defense with Aeron Donald. So we're talking about a run defense that was pretty exploitable, at least mediocre,

on the ground with one of the greatest defensive tackles in the history of the game. Now, we talked in our Bet's Bet podcast earlier. I can talk myself into Rams futures wagers. I can talk myself into Stafford for MVP as a long shot. I can talk myself into the Rams to win the NFC to win the Super Bowl. I'm not sure I can talk myself into the Rams coming into Detroit in week one with a rebuilt defense shutting down what is a lion's offense that is returning basically everyone of consequence. The Lions are laying three in the hook at home.

I think the Lions put on an impressive showing on Sunday night football, Tom. Give me the Lions minus three in the hook. Yeah, I like that one. Rams, you know, most teams aren't too banged up here in training camp. they've been dealing with some offensive line injuries as well. Looks like they'll be all right. Pooka Nakuu is a big name that we, you know, we're watching all training camp and he was out some, you know,

he missed a couple of weeks of practice. So that one definitely lines up for me. Tough spot for them. I'm probably leaning towards the Detroit Lions side on that one. I did, I was looking at some potential props on that side. David Montgomery's carries got beat up, you know,

bet up a little bit. And I do have one bet on that game. DeMarcus Robinson. I hit it over 27 a half receiving yards. It's actually moved down a little bit. It's at 25 and a half. So just a little prop there. If you're also looking to bet that game,

he was up over like 40 receiving yards, you know, consistently at the end of the last season whenever he started to become a full-time player. He did it six straight games, including that Rams, wild card game, whenever the Rams lost by a point. So looking at that as a potential player prop in that game, but just seeing it just now,

I'm looking at the odds board. It didn't move down to 25 and a half, so that doesn't make me feel too good. But I did like DeMarcus Robinson over 27 a half for senior years. Yeah, and you mentioned Nakuwa kind of dealing with that knee injury. I've loved Pooka and Nakua falling to the second round of drafts here as we get into the death throws of draft season. Your draft's probably over by the time you listen to this podcast,

but I've loved him falling to the second. the second round, but he did miss a good portion of camp. Tom, like I mentioned, this is not going to be a player prop podcast for much longer, but you do have a couple extra wagers that you like from the Sunday slate and Monday slate. Where are you headed with some of your best bets here? I'm a little worried about this one. There could be some revenge factor. I'm sure Jim Harbaugh has had this final score planted up on the wall all week here from when the Raiders, you know, put the they put the smack down on the chargers on Thursday night football was the end of the brandon staley era i think they gave up 63 points it was like the most ever that the chargers

had given up in a game uh so but i'm looking at the raiders here they're they got they were catching three in a hook earlier this uh earlier this week it looks like pretty much across the board uh it's been bet down to a a flat field goal here but you know keep an eye on it later this week maybe it maybe a hook starts to bounce back up here. Just thinking that the way these two teams kind of want to play, they want to play a little smash mouth, they want to play a little defense. Could be a lower scoring game anyway.

Chargers have no home field advantage going against, you know, the Raiders. The Raiders might actually have the home field advantage, you know, as the franchise used to be in the Los Angeles area. Are you kidding? There's, Tom, there's a reason why Stan Cronkey didn't want to share a stadium with the Raiders. Yeah. He didn't want the other team running his stadium to be the more popular team in his own stadium.

There's the reason the Raiders aren't in L.A. All politics. Stan Cronkey is thrilled that the Chargers are paying to rent his stadium. Nobody gives a shit about them. So we're talking about the Rams who are, I mean, I think are still struggling to find really great footing in L.A. You are 100% right. The Raiders will have the home team. Maybe we should be giving Raiders points for this game.

No, but this is basically, I'm not given any kind of home field advantage. If anything, maybe a half a point or a point towards the chargers, just because they don't have to travel and it's the, you know, there's locker room and, you know, it's familiar confines. But I have these teams separated by like two, two and a half points in my power rankings. So I feel like this should be closer to a field goal, if anything's shading towards the two and a half. So if you can catch a three and a half with the Raiders here, I kind of like that spot.

And we know Antonio Pierce was a moneymaker at the end of last year, 7-1-1 against the spread. Liking my chances for another one here to potentially, you know, it's a new era for the for the charges as well. They're learning an entire new offense, breaking in, you know, running backs that have never played behind this offensive line. Justin Herbert missed a good chunk of camp. He was out dealing with a foot injury. So I probably wasn't even going full speed whenever he did come back to practice. So they're breaking an entire new receiving core as well.

So I just think there could be some rust here for the Chargers. And I think the Raiders are probably going to be the more cohesive unit. They're bringing back a lot of pieces from last year. So I think the Raiders are live to potentially win this game. But at the very least, I like catching a field goal and a hook if you can get it. Tom, one more that I have. I'm going to go to the other primetime game on the slate. And I can't believe I'm doing it.

Uh-oh. The 49ers did get their entire, I guess, all of their situations figured out. Brandon Ayuk extended. The one I was really worried about more, quite frankly, was Trent Williams. They got him extended. And I'm actually a little surprised by that because Trent Williams has helped, out in the past, you know, like he, he's willing to, to wait for, for the right time. They got him extended.

But it's hard for me to sit here and say, oh, the 49ers, the vibes have definitely gotten a boost, no doubt. But Iyuk hasn't really been practicing. Trent Williams hasn't even been in the building. Brock Purdy, obviously, as we know, like, in games where Trent Williams was not healthy last year, was a disaster compared to games when he wasn't. healthy. Nine interceptions when he wasn't healthy, two when he was. And he was healthy a lot more than he wasn't last year. On the other side, Aaron Rogers, the New York Jets, a team that won

seven games with league worst quarterback play last year. I'm not saying the New York Jets are going to win this game. But wouldn't that be the most Jets thing ever outside of Aaron Rogers getting hurt again, which would be the most Jets thing ever? I think the second most Jets thing ever is going on the road to the defending NFC champion. Aaron Rogers, his hometown team, the team he rooted for, he lights him up on Monday night football. And we're starting here thinking, look out for the Jets, baby.

Here come the Jets. And Mike Frances is doing his podcast, and everybody's calling in, everybody's fired up. And then something happens eight weeks from now that spells Doom for the Jets. But I think they give their fans more hope this year, than they had last year

when Aaron Rogers basically ran straight from the tunnel into an ambulance. Give me the jets getting the four and a half in San Francisco. All right. This was,

you're getting a little more, you know, an extra point here. This was three and a half, bounced, it's been bouncing back between five and three and a half for a lot of the summer here.

It was three and a half because of the Trent Williams and a Yuk situation, but it's bounced back up to four and a half. It doesn't look like Hassan Redick will be part of the equation for the Jets here. Worried at all, though, Joe.

I got it. Aaron Rogers has a very, very sketchy history here, playing against his hometown team, the 49ers. They knocked them out of the playoffs every year when he was with the Packers. Just could not get over the hump with them. It is a different uniform, maybe, maybe some different vibes. But, and it's his first game back, I feel like I'm leaning more towards the 49ers side. Am I worried?

dude, I put a bet on the Jets. Of course I'm worried. Yes. Now you feel how a Jets feels, you know, Jets fan feels like every week. But yeah, I'm probably leaning against you on this one. But I was looking at our projections, really like Brees Hall over his receiving yards. I'm going to see where that one kind of settles in here and maybe wait for like an injury report. This is a, we're recording Wednesday night here. But, you know, Thursday will be the first.

injury report for that game. So, but it's sitting at 26 and a half and we have them for like 48 receiving yards. So that's one prop. If you're looking maybe as a, maybe you're building out something for that game and looking for another leg, Breece Hall over his receiving guards might be an interesting addition to that game. Anything else you want to throw to the people, Tom, before we bring good friend Trey on for his absolutely insane week one bet.

Okay. Well, the other bet I made this week, well, I didn't even make this bet this week. I made this bet back when I wrote an article about the week one lines coming out. And I'm kind of regretting it now. It's my own Steelers catching three against the Falcons. I figured this line was going to get closer and closer as the summer went along. And it initially did. It dropped down the two and a half.

But the Steelers have had an absolutely dismal preseason. Everybody is selling this team. they got no chance. Now the line has moved up to three and a half. I think there might be a decent spot to buy them here. You can catch a hook. I wish I could have. I have the straight field goal here,

but I'm going to continue to back the Steelers here, even though everything is telling me from what I saw this preseason. This team could be an absolute nightmare debacle team. But, you know, we're still looking at a Falcons team that, you know, didn't play any of their player, you know, this is a new regime and they didn't play any starters in the preseason. You know, maybe that's working to their advantage that, at least in the betting market, the teams are backing them.

They didn't get to see just how cohesive the offensive unit was. And we got to see all the Steelers warts in preseason action, but at least they may, maybe they worked out some of their issues. So I still like the Steelers getting three and a half now. But, you know, I wish I would have waited and bet this week instead of earlier this summer. Now I'm stuck with a three, but, you know, it should be a very interesting game there from, you know,

all kinds of different angles there. Arthur Smith coming back to Atlanta, you know, new quarterbacks on both sides. It should be a lot of fun. You know, Steelers breaking in a new receiving core without Deontay Johnson. They have Van Jefferson from the Atlanta Falcons as their number two wide receiver now. So a lot of interesting things going on there.

just want to see the Atlanta Falcons offense too. We're going to be, they're going to be debuting an entirely different offense compared to what they were running last year. So that that game has a lot of intrigue written all over it. But if you want a little extra action on it, maybe grab three and a half with the Steelers. I wonder if good friend Trey heard what you said a little bit earlier in this segment when you said the Falcons didn't play any of their starters during the preseason because there is one notable player who did play in the preseason.

And this would indicate he's not a star. We'll get to that after we pay the bills and good friend Trey joins the show. The world's worst gambler, good friend Trey, he joins the show as he does every time. It is written into his contract. We did not read the fine print. And this is staggering. We haven't even kicked off the NFL season yet. And it is highly likely that Good Friend Trey has already lost a bet.

I don't know if that's ever happened before. But, Trey, did you hear what Tom said earlier about the Falcons having played none of their starters in the preseason? Well, one guy who did play is Michael Penix. You had a little bit of a wager on Michael Pennix. I want you to rehash that for the people. And then gracefully take your L here on the Best Pet Show. It's a tough day. You know, I was watching Rahim Morris's press conference earlier.

And he, as he was saying Taylor Heineke's name wrong, He mentioned that Pennix is the quarterback, too, the first we've really heard him say that. So, yeah, I am, it's unfortunate. I'm having my Tim Tebow interview moment this early in the season before a down has been played. But I will be back. I will be better. You've never seen anybody in the lab as much as I've been in the lab. I haven't seen the wife, haven't seen the kids.

I mean, I'm living in the lab. I haven't gotten a haircut. The Pennix bet's probably dead. Yeah, the Pennix bet, it might be dead. But I got a pretty good feeling that I'm going to be able to make up for this slight miscalculation here today. But by the way, you didn't even mention what the bet was. Yeah, that you made a couple of weeks ago on the show.

Maybe they haven't been listening to the podcast here. If you haven't, if you haven't been listening to the podcast, I bet Michael Pennex to lead all rookies and passing yards. On the idea, you know, that Kurt Cousins maybe is not fully healthy, they hadn't mentioned that he was for sure the starter yet. It's all kind of been assumed. And you'll hear me say this a lot on this podcast. I like to say things like Kurt Cousin was assumed the starter probably for good reason. That's how I will say a lot of these things.

And of course, you know, it was for good reason. seem like he's going to be the starter. So I'll hold the L today. I will. I'll take it. You know what? You can put that on me. But listen, it ain't going to last for long. I'm not going to be down for long, baby. So there would be only one person on planet Earth who would be happy if Kirk Cousins is writhing around on the ground in the first quarter of this game. Well, I might be too with my Steelers bet. So, you know, but maybe Pennix might be the better option according to Trey. Well, that's what Trey thinks. He picked him to all rookies and passing yards. All right, Trey, you say you didn't leave the lab.

What kind of concoction flubber did you cook up here for week number one? And again, this is the world's worst gambler, folks. So we're tracking every bet. We can statistically prove if he is the world's worst gambler. And we're already giving him an O for one. But all right, Trey, week one NFL season, there's got to be something that caught your eye. I've got a beautiful bet that I've been cooking up for several weeks now. You know, Tom hit on the Chargers and the Raiders earlier.

And do you guys know there's other than the high scoring affair they had last year? There's some extra bad blood in that game. Do you guys know about this? Yeah, it looks. I mean, everything coming out of Tawante Adams doesn't like the Chargers. The Chargers are, you know, pissed at the Raiders for, you know, running up the score last year. Yeah, and Joe hit on the bad blood between the two franchises. They didn't want the Raiders in Los Angeles.

So, yeah, this is a little bit of a long. longstanding feud between these two franchises. I'll play the video if you see this on social, but for our podcast listeners, I'm going to read just some of these quotes from Devante Adams here. So in an interview with Yahoo this summer, he said that the Chargers, quote, had a garbage-ass social media team.

They, of course, put his picture next to a Pop-Tart box that had trash-flavored pop tarts. This is real. This happened. He later said, I have abused y'all every game that I've been a raider and as far as what his stat line will be he says history repeats itself okay so let's take a look at some of these past lines he's played the played the Chargers four times 10 for 141 and 1 8 for 177 and 2 8 for 75 and no touchdowns and then that game you know the blowout game last year 8 for 101 and 1 touchdown I don't even know if you played much of the second half of that. game I mean that game was you know over at half time so here's the bet let's just get right into it okay you're gonna it's week one so you're gonna grab two units out of the

old wallet okay you're gonna grab two might have to go to ATM here yeah we're gonna split this up a little bit the first unit and I gotta say this okay one of my big this is this is where I shine okay Rob Grunkowski's second year with the bucks I told everybody at the barbershop at work at church anywhere Bet Rob Grancowski, two touchdowns, week one. This guy is healthy now. He wasn't in game shape last year. He's going to get fed.

And what happens? Two touchdowns, week one. Two, I looked like a king. I rolled around Salt Lake City like the man. Okay? People wanted autographs. You know, women wanted me, men wanted to be me. It was a great time.

Did you get the Mormons to make those bets? Yeah, you know what? They got bookies out there. Yeah, they were betting Kansas Sprite. That being said, Devante Adams is going to score two touchdowns, okay, this week. Guaranteed, I'm locking it in. This is, I already bet this, my best bet. You get it at about plus 1,600.

He is going to score two touchdowns. It is going to happen. That's your one unit, okay? Now we're going to take the second unit. Well, go ahead. Go ahead. You know, this is, do you know he has Gardner Minshu at quarterback? It doesn't matter.

You're comparing it to Gronk. Gronk had the goat. as his quarterback he's got gardener minchew it doesn't matter doesn't matter okay it's he could have me back there throwing it he's going to find two touchdowns okay it's it's it's gonna happen this second part of this bet you're gonna take this unit okay you're gonna split it in half all right i if we're it's a little bit of a hedge okay and the first half's not that exciting uh we're gonna go ahead and take adams to have 100 yards and a touchdown it's a little parlay a little two prop parley be about plus 400 on fan duel that's where i

I got it. I already bet it. Listen, I'm betting these myself. Okay. So I'm not, I'm not just throwing stuff at the wall. I'm betting this. And then this is the real degenerate, the crem de la creme of this bet. You're going to go ahead. You're going to take Devante Adams to score two touchdowns. You're going to parlay that with Devante Adams to go over 125 receiving yards. He's having a monster game, okay? And then you're going to come back on that side of it with Josh Palmer over 50 receiving. yards you get a little comeback we'll come back with josh palmer that's going to be plus 5 000 5,160 in that

range you're going to put the other half unit on that this is going to happen okay try i got to say i kind of i'm hoping that you win this bet because i have a i have the raiders plus three and a half and also that last one i have a little josh palmer i have a taste on him over 44 and a half receiving yards. I crushed the Raiders last year. So I got to say, I'm really rooting for this bet to hit. Adam scores two touchdowns. They got to be covering three and a half, right? I mean, absolutely, 100%. And I got to talk about this game a little bit more because it's bothering me. It's been bothering me for a month. Okay. The sharps are on the Chargers being a running football team and kind of taking the air out of the ball, right? The public is on the Chargers,

a running football team and taking the air of the ball and again i said i'll say this a lot for good reason but if the raiders come in there and punch them in the mouth with a pissed off to vante adams i just don't see how this game is going to like i think this is going to surge past the over under a 40 and a half i think this game is a shoot out i think these guys are going to score like crazy. And for that reason, this game is going to be a big part of my DFS lineups this week. Nobody's on it. Nobody wants a piece of it really. Lowest total on the slate. Yes.

I was about to say, this is this is one over the summer. It is plummeted. It started 42 and a half, 43 and a half, depending on where you're looking. This is dropped by an entire field goal over the summer. Everybody on the planet likes the under in this game. And again, for good reason. Harball likes the under in the state. Yeah, of course he does. I don't see the Chargers being able to run the ball as much as they want to the entire game. For one, like I mentioned, the Raiders are going to come out and punch them in the mouth. They're going to score early and often, in my opinion. Secondly, the Raiders' defensive line on paper is nasty. I mean, you know, they added Christian

Wilkins from the Dolphins. This is not going to be a walk in the park to just, you know, three yards in a cloud of dust. Okay, this is going to be a tough sled. They're going to have to throw the football. They got Justin Herbert. I really like, for DFS specifically, Devante Adams in every lineup, and we're going to bring it back with a little Justin Herbert, assuming he's healthy, Justin Herbert and Josh Palmer stacks,

some Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey stacks, maybe even both of them. I'm telling you guys, I got a good feeling about it. This game's going over. 100% it's going to be fireworks. Shootout. There might be 60 combined points, I'm going to say. This total might be. you off by 20 points.

Lowest total on the board and it's going over by 20 points. All right. We've got to, uh, we've got to, let me tell you. The fact of the matter is that we know the man, the man is the self-proclaimed world's worst gambler, by the way. And he's still managing to spin this in a way that sounds somewhat appealing to me is making me fear for my mental acuity. Yeah, I might have to sprinkle a couple bucks on the Anthony Adams and scored two touchdowns now.

I'll go, I'll go find a little bit of change. And I mean, Don't, I mean, he has just absolutely ripped the charges throughout his career. So, man, it's, it's, uh, you know, you know what they say. Uh, the truth sounds crazy in a world full of lies. You know what I mean? This is, uh, everyone's got the under. Everyone's saying, Gardner, Mitchie this, Aidan O'Connell, this, all trash. The truth sounds crazy in a world full of lies.

And everybody's off. Everybody's off this game. Avoid it. It's going to be low scoring. It's going to be ugly. I think it's going to be one of the most exciting games of the week. Are you bringing your talents to the DFS show as well to try to spew this on there? Scott said I had an open invitation to join whenever I want.

But maybe after a big win, if I get a big win this year, I'll come on and share the sugar. But, you know, it's, I like to be more on the behind the scenes and taking in the advice as far as DFS is concerned. But this one I felt confident about it. You like come on here and spewing your crap. Well, when I have a, yeah, when I've got a month. month to a month to dive in you know it just in DFS it just makes a lot more sense because there's a it's a massive edge I mean if you can if you can get one thing right that damn you're everybody on the planet thinks the opposite way you know that's a that's a bet I'm willing

to take so yeah we'll be we'll be living good next week I'll probably be zooming in or recording from a beach or you know overseas enjoying some vacation time after this big I even go out to Las Vegas and party with Devante Adams who knows up I'll probably be in a new house after this, after this week, because I, I think, I think all four of those plays, all three of those plays are going to hit. I think my DFS lineups are going to be, looking pretty good and I'd be rolling in the change, fellas. We might have to change your nickname if you're able to, to victory lap this one, but it was well reasoned, a garbage bet, but well reasoned nonetheless. Good friend, Trey, bringing the spice here

on the best bets program for Tom Brawley, who is our prop master at fantasy points. and our side and our total master. But go up and read his articles at fantasy points. Use court code score more for a nice discount. And remember to get into the subscriber discord. As always, we make these bets. You can choose whether or not to follow them because, after all, we're not wise. We're those guys.