Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Week 2 Best Bets + Trey's Somewhat Reasonable Parlay

Episode Date: September 12, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Age Curves Article By Ryan Heath - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out#/ Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Thinking About Thinking Substack - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/lets-think-about-thinking Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

of the 2024 NFL season here. On the best bet show of Fantasy Points Podcast Network and Fantasy Points now, I hope everybody had a very fun and profitable week number one. I'll tell you this, this show, my best bets, two and one. I'll take that every week. I am very glad I did not hand out the rest of the props that I bet this weekend, T-Bro, because Dolan got cleaned out in the prop market. there was one that I made that I liked that you had on Monday night between the Jets and the 49ers.

There was Debo under three and a half rush attempts. And then McCaffrey got ruled out. And you and I basically texted immediately, well, there's a loss because they're obviously going to use Debo in the ground game. Yeah, it moved up to four and a half and the money was going towards the over. I'm like, I'm not even, I'm just marking that down as a loss. Moving on to Cincinnati. That's how I was looking at it. So, yeah, that was an interesting weekend.

We'll see if it continues here. The quarterback play was pretty subpar. And I also think we might be seeing some of these teams moving a little bit more toward the run, at least early in the season, kind of going against these nickel and dime defenses. And, you know, these teams have skewed more to the pass here the last couple of years. And it might be having a little correction course here over the, at least, early in the season. We'll see if it continues, but something to keep an eye on here over the next couple of weeks. You know, week two tends to be overreaction week. You know, so what sides are some of

these numbers going to be coming down on? Tom, I did want to recap my best bets and your best bet, something just for accountability's sake. And oh, by the way, in case you were wondering, we weren't able to shake them. Good friend Trey, the world's worst gambler. Coming off an 0 for one stinker. We'll be back later on in the show to a recap that. But his panic stuff. might be alive. It might be alive. That's a good point and we will talk to him about that. But Tom, I wanted to just recap our best bets for a little bit of accountability. Now, remember on this show, we are not wise. We're just guys. But there were some bets that I liked. And the best bets that I made on this show were the Lions minus three and a half.

Might have been the wrong side, but I'll take a victory anyway. I can get it. I had Isaiah likely over 15 and a half receiving yards. That was extremely the right side. And then I mentioned it on last week's show, Tom. I bet on the Jets. I deserve what I get. You like the other side. I lost that one, but I did go two and one on my best bets on the best bet show. And look, two and one, I'll take that every single week.

No, that's excellent. I was trying to talk you off the, I think it was the Jets bet. I was trying to talk you off that one a little bit. But no, good start overall. Myself, I just recap in what I did on the site. 12 and 4 against the spread picking every game that's in our staff picks every Thursday evening people are always looking for those so off to an excellent start there 2-1-1 on the best bets you know I pick a couple out that I like the most and player props not so much 6 and 7 on those last year I struggled on those and off to a slow start here so far this year but hopefully we get some better offensive play moving forward so overall I'll take it Week one can always be a little tricky, especially now more than ever with guys playing less than the preseason.

And a lot of it is just going off what you're hearing from beat reports and everything else that's going on leading up to the season. So hopefully we see some more trends here this week. And the bets improve, at least on the player prop size. Player prop side. Yeah, so I'm very glad I didn't give out my player props this week. You're the one who actually holds yourself accountable on those. Like, again, I just bet recreationally.

You're the guy who throws the numbers out there. But there is a lot of room for improvement. And I guarantee you we will. So let's kick it off. Let's kick it off with the Thursday night football game, Tom. And it's an interesting one, a divisional Thursday night football game in September, which feels like they should be giving us giants and Panthers,

but they're not. We've got Buffalo at my. We got the dolphins laying two and a half at home. There are some questions, though, T, bro, about the dolphins run game. The run game was not effective against the Jaguars, actually. It was Devon A. Chan in the passing game that was particularly effective. But Rahim Mostert's going to miss this game with the chest injury. It looks like A. Chan with an ankle is a game time decision.

He did practice on Wednesday. So it's possible the dolphins are rolling out there with Jeff Wilson and Jalen Wright, which is obviously limiting the prop market here on the Dolphin side. Nonetheless, T-Bro, the side or the total, anything you like here in this Buffalo Miami game, two teams coming off of come from behind victories. Yeah, just a little context for there that like Devin A. Chan's his player, his touchdown prop has really, went from like plus 110 to minus 165 now that Moster is out of lineup. And now he's like right at the top of the market for first touchdown.

So seeing a little bit of movement because of that, most are injury. So they do have H& props out. Yeah, they do. They're expecting him to play. So the touchdown props are they can take those off the board if something happens and they can refund those easily. The player prop ones are a little more difficult.

So I don't know if we have anything on that market just yet. But yeah, I'm not seeing any player props for him. But by the time you listen to this tomorrow, it'll probably be up. But I'm leading towards the bills side on this one. I don't think it will be an official bet, but we're seeing two and a halfs in the market right now. If this, if it would happen to touch three, and I don't think it will, I'll probably, I'll probably add the bills plus three. But it is a little bit of a tricky spot here.

Coming down, a short week, flying down from Buffalo to play in Miami. Miami's home field advantage is always much more pronounced in. September. But at least it's at night. You know, you're not going to have that sun beaten down. The way the dolphins set up the field, they have the sun side on the visitors there. So, but that's not going to be in play here tonight, you know, with the bills and dolphins playing at 820, 815, whatever time to kick off is tonight. So, but I love Josh Allen in these kind of spots. And, you know, it did take the dolphins a little while to kick things into gear. last week and same with the same with the bills but that once they got it rolling especially in the second half they kind of steamrolled the the cardinals so uh i'm i'm laying towards the bills

on this one but probably won't play it unless we get some plus threes in the market so tom i actually have a a bet that i like uh for this one uh and i think it's going to be kind of an overcorrection type of thing despite an 80% route shift in week number one, and despite the fact that we all kind of presumed he was going to be the de facto number one target for the Buffalo Bills, Dalton Kincake caught just one pass for 11 yards. There was multiple times that he looked like he was getting double and triple teamed by the Cardinal defense, a guy they clearly, the only guy they really have that has a significant amount of chemistry with Josh Allen. and it looked like the Cardinals wanted to limit that.

I think the bills are going to try to get him involved. As a matter of fact, his 80% route participation was the highest ever for Dalton Kincaid in games in which Dawson Knox also played. This is per Scott Barrett's week one recap. And it was also higher than his route participation in games that Dawson Knox missed last year. So he was out there. His role was huge. I am betting Dalton Kincaid over the four and a half receptions.

It's not a number I love, but I wouldn't be surprised if he catches six or seven passes in this game. I don't fault the logic on that. I think I personally would probably like the receiving yards a little bit more just in case, just the way that Joe Brady and the offense is playing a little bit more ever since he took over, a little bit more run heavy. But I do like the logic on that play. I'm going with another Bill's receiver. I was really impressed with Keon Coleman last week

and just going through my game hub that's up on the site and looking at the usage. I mean, it was kind of what we were hoping for. It was what they were showing in the preseason, him running a lot of routes, kind of being the lead receiver in this offense. So he went out and had an 87% route share and a 28% air yard share.

And this is from our fantasy points data. It was 22% in his target share in this first game. So we saw Brian Thomas in this matchup. Two similar type of prospects, I would say. You know, bigger outside receivers with some speed. And he excelled in it and scored a touchdown. And the one concern I have with it is maybe Jalen Ramsey's a little healthier coming into this game. But it seems like he's not quite 100%.

So I'm not as scared of this matchup as I typically would be. I'm looking for Keon Coleman in this big role to go over his receiving yards. I think I gave it out at 43 and a half. I think there is a 42 and a half out in the market right now. But take a look around and get the best number. But we're looking towards these bills receivers to have some big games tonight. Tom, we're going to take a little bit of a quick break. And then we're going to go around the rest of the week to 2024 NFL slate.

All right, Tom. There was there for me, maybe not being the. most astute better. Remember, we're not wise. We're just guys and I am especially just a guy here. I was looking at some of these spreads and I found it very hard for me to really latch on to anything except one that I think we're going to, we're going to dub a super best bet on this slate because we have crossover. You threw it up in the Fantasy Points Discord. And I want to remind everybody, um, Fantasy Points Discord is where Tom, post all of his bets at first. That's the first thing he does is post his bets in Discord,

then the article, and then maybe we'll talk about them on this show. We're certainly not going to talk about all of them on this show, but you can get access to the Fantasy Points Betting Discord if you use code YouTube 25 to subscribe to either NFL premium or all in. So I highly recommend you do this. Tom, I love this when you threw this one out on Monday. And I am like kind of stunned to say that this hasn't moved. And it has a little bit. It's bounce back, but it is still out there. There's some books that are offering it. You're going, where are you going here? The Indianapolis Colts are laying three in Green Bay. And I don't know if there was a team more impressive in defeat than the Colts in week one. They played the Texans,

took him to the wire. Anthony Richardson completed just nine passes, but they were like, his stat line was Techbow Bowl, like, you know, nine for like 2.30 because of the deep balls to Alec Pierce. And I'm bearing the lead here, though. Malik Willis is probably going to be the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. Malik Willis has started three games in the NFL and doesn't have a touchdown pass. I mean, this is a huge disadvantage. He might be the worst backup quarterback in the NFL, at least as a thrower. He's a dynamic runner. And Indianapolis, for a team that lost, I have to feel like their fans are feeling pretty good. Like, there's teams that won in week one and their fans probably aren't feeling pretty good

because of how bad quarterback play was around the league or how, um, or how like undynamic the offenses looked. I'm speaking of your Pittsburgh Steelers, Tom. But I mean, the culture, fans probably feel pretty good about that game. The Texans are supposed to win that division, blah, blah, blah. Richardson comes out, finishes the game, shows some impressive plays. I like the Colts laying the three in Lambo. I know you do too, but if there is a devil's advocate argument, what would that be? Yeah, I'm with you.

I laid it at three on Monday. There are three and a halfs out there, but there has been some buyback in my power rankings that I put in the Best Betts article. I downgraded the Packers by seven points, because of the Malik Willis injury. And, you know, this is more looking at games being played here in the near future. And that would knock them down to only above the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers for me right now. Those are the only teams I would feel confident with Malik Willis at starting quarterback,

winning games against right now. But, you know, I want to, I feel like this is still a good bet. But if I was to be a devil's advocate here a little bit, The Colts is this offense going to be sustainable moving forward. Jonathan Taylor in that running game was a little shaky against the Texans. Took 19 attempts to score all, you know, passing attempts to score all those points. We're going to get those deep balls every week. So that would be a concern for me.

And the other concern is the Colts run defense. This is the biggest thing that I'm most concerned about right now. Joe Mixon, who couldn't even move this training camp. They were nursing an injury all summer long here, comes out and gets like 30 carries and just torches them all game long. This was supposed to be the strength of the Colts defense was their front seven, and it did not look like it in week once. So a lot of times, as you said, Joe, at the top, these week two,

these coaches get a little tape and they can correct some of these things. So I'm hoping that they, you know, fix up that run defense a little bit. So that would be the two concerns I would have betting this Colts thing. And those were the only reasons for pause for me. But I just don't see this offense for the Packers being able to sustain offense. It's going to be a whole lot of Josh Jacobs, a whole lot of keepers with Malik Willis. And I think Jaden Reed is probably about the only receiver. I would trust it all for fantasy purposes.

and maybe for prop bet purposes that's going to be, you know, even somewhat effective in this passing game. So I'm with you here, though. We're going to lay the three with the Colts here on the road. It's not the best spot, but let's go with the Colts. So Tom, I want to talk about the Packers a little bit because if you want to talk defense, they gave up three touchdowns and over 100 yards rushing to Sequan Barkley. That being said, by our metrics at Fantasy Points data,

The Packers actually averaged on contacting Sequin Barclay in the backfield, which shows you how well Seyquan Barclay played in that game. But there's another factor to it. The field conditions in that game might have caused some really weird interactions on the trenches. You know, Nick Siriani alluded to it a little bit earlier this week about the tush push and saying there were some, essentially there were, in addition to Jason Kelsey being retired, there were some factors that we had to adjust to, which was very clearly of the field conditions.

So defensively, what did you see from these Packers who, let's be honest, got two turnovers in the first quarter and still gave up 34 points to the Eagles. Yeah, honestly, that game, I'm not going to take a whole lot from it. I mean, it looked like they were playing on skates out there. I can't believe that that was allowed to happen. Yeah, the fact that they were playing down in Brazil. And who knows if that, you know, affected Jordan.

and love it all in the knee injury. But, yeah, it was like one of the few games I'm not going to overreact to too much. Offenses looked a little bit better. But it goes back to like that, you know, whenever, whenever there's rain or snow in the forecast, people a lot of times like to down significantly downgrade passing games and stuff like that. But, you know, at the end of the day, the offenses know where they're going. You know, they know the routes. So a lot of times it affects the defense a little bit more.

So no major takeaways from that Packers defense just yet. But we'll see if they can defend the deep pass. Jair Alexander, you know, supposed to be their shutdown cornerback. He got roasted a couple of times. But we'll see if that Colts deep passing game can sustain here against that single high defense that Hathley likes to run. So Tom, this to me. this line being what it is, and before we move on, is this seems like just really respect Matt Lofloor kind of line. I mean, well, I mean, this line has moved eight points. That's, I just don't

know if the market, the market at some point, these, you know, the sharp bettors, not us. We're not the wise guys, remember? But the, the sharp bettors, this game was at five last week on the Packers' favor. Yeah. The Packers favor by five. So this line has moved eight. points at some point there's going to be buyback and once the hook came on that three i think that's where the buyback is so this this line is i think just going to sit here in this three to three point five range at the old three point two five line uh so if it is at three and a half uh you know Thursday Friday whenever you're listening to this I would kind of wait it out don't don't don't bet the Colts when it's at three and a half I would I would bet that there's more there's more

field goal this isn't getting to four yeah I don't think it's getting a four. So I would wait this one out. You're going to get minus threes at some point this weekend. Tom, uh, let's go to one of your best bets. We shared that one, but I know you have another one from Sunday before we get to mine. Um, where are you leaning here with, uh, with a, uh, spread, a spread bet? Yeah, I got a, I got two more, uh, that I gave out on Monday. So the lines have moved a little bit on the one. Uh, the one I gave out on Monday was before the Jets played. Uh, like the Titans. they were getting four and a half at some books. Just as just kind of wagering on the jet.

You know, it's a really difficult spot here. They got a 40-year-old quarterback. They were playing out in the West Coast out in Santa Clara, have to fly back real late Monday night, and then they got to go down to Nashville. Play one o'clock kick, but down to Nashville, that's a noon kick. So it's a real super early start there. I just think it's going to be a little difficult here for the Jets.

It could be a little bit of a sleepy start. I just thought the line was a little too big and this is a spot where I think a lot of people got burned by the Titans last week. They were a pretty popular play getting four and a half in Chicago and of course they boxed the punt there that gets blocked and returned for a kick. And Will Levis hands away six points

and hands away the game at the end there. So I think people are going to be a little bit scared off here from the Titans. but the line has moved to three and a half. I still kind of like it there. If you're going to get, make sure you get the hook in this one, three and a half. But I do expect a little bit of a bounce back from the Titans. And maybe we'll see, you know,

Jordan Mason had his way against that run defense for the Jets. Tony Pollard looked pretty darn good. A little player prop that I've already given out, him over his rushing yards. I think it's 49.5, 50 and a half, depending on where you're looking. I think that he's going to have some success against this Jets run defense. So that was one spot I was looking at.

And the other game I gave out on Monday was the Chiefs, minus five and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. And this one kind of scares me a little bit, just because I could see the Bengals respond in a little bit, but I just don't know if something feels off there. With everything that's going on with these contact, contract situations with these wide receivers. T. Higgins gets the late hamstring injury.

Adam Schaefter said on Monday that he would doubt that he would be able to play this weekend. If you take one of their key wide receivers away, you know, defenses are able to focus in on, you know, Jabbar Chase and just it was all dink and dunk last week. And there was no vertical game. They have a lot of, you know, kind of scrubby wide receivers behind Jambar Chays. Mark Chasing T. Higgins. So I was really impressed by what I saw from the Chiefs in the in the season opener. We're able to attack a little bit more downfield with Xavier Worthy.

They should get they potentially could get Marquise Brown back this week. And that their defensive line just totally dominated the Baltimore Ravens offensive line. So kind of kind of like the the chiefs laid in five and a half. But this one has stuck around there. It's a, at Fandall at least, minus five and a half. There's six is in the market, but I would bet this five and a half if you can. Two minus six. I would still bet it minus six.

But I think if it crosses over to like six and a half, that's kind of a key number. As we saw last like Sunday night there, if this game goes to overtime or whatever, you know, but no extra points. So that six and a half number can be pretty key. So like this at five and a half if you can, but you can get it at six as well. If you know my history as an NFL fan, you'll know. how much I have to love this bet to lay this. I'm laying six and a half with the Cowboys this weekend.

I like this one. I like this one too. And, and I'm like, there are some questions of how much of that was Dallas's defense vis-a-vis, how much of that was Deshawn Watson. I would argue Dallas's defense was great. I would argue Watson was worse than Dallas's defense was great. And it all just kind of coalesced into this block.

of gunk sitting off a Lake Erie. And I don't know if the Browns are going to be able to recover from that until they benched to Sean Watson. But the one thing that I definitely think was fraudulent, at least partially because they do have a new offensive coordinator, was the Saints scoring on nine consecutive drives against the Panthers. The Panthers were lifeless. Dallas is coming home.

I am not changing my entire offseason of analysis about the Saints because of what happened to the Carolina Panthers in week number one. I feel like maybe we just thought it couldn't get worse for the Panthers and then Bryce Young might have just played the worst game of his career. I am laying the six and a half with Dallas at home in this spot. I just think the Saints are not anywhere near as good as they showed and they can be competitive in this game and still lose to Dallas. Derek Carr throwing a pick six, something like that to get a cover going in the fourth quarter. So I just think Dallas coming off a big win. The Saints coming off. a big win. The Saints would, I mean, the storm, they have to adjust their travel schedule

potentially. It's just not a great spot for the Saints. Give me Dallas Lane the six and a half. Yeah, and this, I mean, it wasn't really exposed last week against the Carolina Panthers, but this offensive line, this is, was the biggest concern. Scott D. Benedetto had them rated as one of the worst offensive lines in the league with New Orleans Saints. And we just saw Michael Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys just absolutely live in the backfield with Deshawn Watson last week. So that could be, you know, pretty important here. And we see these Dallas Cowboys. They like to, they're really, they're kind of a, they're not really road warriors like they were last week.

They dominate people more on that home turf in Jerry's world here recently. So I'm with you. I kind of like laying this six and a half here. We do our Bugsies pull, our, you know, our team selections. And we can, I guess we're going to lock this in with Dallas Cowboys minus six and a half in this game. So Tom, we laid out the case for our best bets. We're going to welcome in Good Friend Trey, the world's worst gambler after the break. And we're going to talk a little Michael Pennix to start before he cooks up a casserole of crap that he's going to try to get you to tail him on.

So we'll pay some bills and then we'll be right back with Good Friend Trey. All right, he is back. Wearing a different wrestling shirt, I guess, every week. I don't know if he wore one last week, but I feel like I've seen him wear a heartbreak kid one. He is the sucker of the show. He is good friend Trey, the world's worst gambler. Now, Trey, first and foremost, there has been some talk for other reasons about Midwestern food. I had never heard the term hot dish before like two weeks ago.

what is a hot dish? I hate to disappoint here, but I'm not super familiar with the hot dish. I know one that my friends used to really enjoy was hot beef. We do that out in the Midwest, which is just basically a heap of mashed potato, some shredded beef, gravy. You know, some people do French fries. I think that's a little. Sounds like shepherd's pie.

Yeah. It's like shepherd's pie, but like no vegetables. It's just a lot better. Get those vegetables out of here. I mean, no greens, no greens in the Midwest. But yeah, I am a pretty big fan of the hot beef. Okay. So apparently it's just Minnesotan and Dakota.

That calls it a hot dish. I had never heard the term before a couple of weeks ago. That's what I call a casserole. And that's why it came to my mind because I said you were cooking up a casserole of crap here. Now, we made fun of you incessantly for the bet you made on the first ever edition of this program. which was essentially Michael Penix to lead rookies in passing yards. And we knew, we said to you, you'll know week one if that's even possible. Well, we thought it was impossible.

But two things happened. Number one, and most important for you, Kurt Cousins looked like he couldn't plant and drive the football, which is going to be a problem against Philadelphia this weekend, by the way. Number two, none of the rookies. quarterback's played well. Caleb was awful. Jade and Daniels, they didn't even give him a chance to play well, and Bo Nix was atrocious. So all of a sudden, there's like this window for Michael Pennix. How much, you're a Falcons fan too. What's the pulse of the Falcons fan base right now?

Well, I mean, the general pulse is, it's, it's abysmal, as it always is. You go in and you lose to the Steelers in the Ardy Smith Revenge game, they don't even score a touchdown. I mean, it just, it couldn't get much worse than that. I will say I was very impressed with T.J. Watt, I think, I think he has a case to be, he might be the best player in the NFL. I mean, he just single-handedly kind of wrecked that game. But, you know, we could sit here. We could talk about Kirk not being 100% right. I mean, that was very clear. We could talk about the other quarterbacks not looking great. We could talk about Keith's sweat of the free bet, me, you know,

baking that plus 8,000 parlay on Thursday night last week. But, you know, we don't need to talk about my successes. Why didn't you bring that one to the podcast? Yeah, we would have to tell that one. Perhaps we have it today, but we don't need to talk about my successes. I'd rather, because, you know, the successes, that's all day, every day. The misses, you know, there's so few that those are what I really like to dive into. So I am here today to eat it with the Devante Adams stuff.

So if you guys want to, if you want to kick that off, I'm prepared to, to give you a response. Yeah, did you see when Gardner Minchew literally just dropped the ball 30 yards backwards? Like, if not for Will Levis, that would have been the funniest quarterback play of the season. It wasn't even the funniest of the late slate, of the Sunday slate. So you can give Will Levis credit for that. But unfortunately, Trey, that didn't even come close. I mean, he didn't even lead the team in targets.

Brock Bowers did. I think Alexander Madison had as many targets as Devante Adams did. I think Antonio Pierce went against this bet. I mean, he was kicking field goals inside the 10-yard line late in the game, punning, you know, fourth and less than one inside the Chargers territory. So maybe Antonio Pierce just didn't, you know, he had a bet against your prop there, maybe. I don't know. You're not going to see a worst punt in the NFL.

Like, Tom, you should go for that in the first quarter, let alone trailing by seven in the fourth. I mean, like literally the only worst punt I could possibly imagine. and what Antonio Pierce did in that game would be if you punted from like the 25. Just get a little close. Yeah, just punt it. I mean, it was so bad. It was fourth and one. So, Trey, the Devante Adams had, I actually did tail you on it. It had zero chance. It just was not going to happen. You had Devante Adams to score two plus touchdowns. They scored one. And it was by Alexander Madison, which is always a wonderful thing. You got to shake it off, brother, man.

And I know when something like this goes awry, you get cooking. Well, I'll hold the L this week. Okay, it happened. I'm not going to, I'm not going to hide. I'm not going to run. I think the biggest issue, other than, you know, Antonio Pierce being a little bit of a coward, which is not his,

not his MO, you know, he's not really known for that, but he sure, he sure was pretty cowardly last week. So that's neither here nor there. But I didn't credit that Chargers pass. rush enough I don't think there was a lot of talk this summer that Joey Bosa could actually you know potentially be cut they're trying to save salary and

they're formidable you know four sacks so that that's on me again that's you know a miss on my part and oversight but that money from last week it's not gonna make itself back so I had to handcuff myself to the chair here in the lab the wife left she took the kids you know I got to make some money so we can get dinner this weekend and get the family back together. So I do have a little bit that I'm interested in. And this is, I believe, a Thursday night special. So we're going to know right away. We're going to know right away. Bill's Dolphins, of course, Thursday night football. I cooked up two different parlayes, okay. So the first one's going to be a four-legger and then I threw a couple

legs on the back, you know, just to have you been talking to Alex Pendergrass or same game parlay guy? are you going to you're trying to unseat him as the SDP guy for the website? Alex, Alex is my hero, my personal hero. Legendary articles every week on the site, usually multiple times a week. Definitely check out Alex's articles. And I'm going to see tomorrow when he comes out with his how close, you know, we're aligned. I'm guessing we're not going to be very closely aligned. I was going to say, you know, he's one of the best same game parley betterers.

We'll see if you're in the same class as him. Maybe he'll be listening to this podcast trying to get ideas. So who knows? I certainly hope not. So here's the four-leggar I've got cooked up. Josh Allen, anytime touchdown. He's always live to bulldoze someone, grab one. It's easy money.

We'll just say that's going to happen, guaranteed. I do like Khalil Shakir, 40 yards at least, 40 or more yards. I think he had 42 last week. I'd like to see him get a little bit more involved. A couple more catches, three catches. I think he gets to get a little more action this week. So we have, we have Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir covered in our bets this weekend.

So they're definitely Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and MBS. Oh, that Mack Hollins touchdown was disgusting. Don't even get me started. I was out. That was horrifying. At least he had shoes on. But the next leg, Tyree kills 70 plus yards. The guy gets out of bed with 50 yards.

I mean, that's, that's no problem there. And then I like James Cook to have two receptions or more. I know you talked about the weather, you know, in the beginning. I think it's still going to be, you know, 90-ish degrees. It's going to be muggy. I think they're going to try to give Josh Allen a couple of breathers here and there, a couple screens maybe. So I like to see Josh Cook catch at least two passes.

So if we get that done, it's going to be floating around 535. I got one unit on that parlay. So let me hear the thoughts. I actually think this sounds entirely reasonable. Yeah, I know. James Cook, I was actually looking at his props. Ty Johnson's a little banged up this week. He's kind of like the two minute back for them.

So if he doesn't play or if he's like limited a little bit, maybe that helps James Cook out with his props. So yeah, Josh Allen. I mean, that's a lock. I had it in my game hub this week. I got to pull that up. but he scored 13 total rushing touchdowns in his last nine games. So that seems like just block it in.

That's the stone cold lock of the night is Josh Allen is scoring a rushing touchdown. Yeah. And I mean, if you wanted to juice this up a little bit further, Trey, you could go to Josh Allen to score multiple touchdowns if you wanted to juice that up a little bit further. Let's get a little funky here. Don't tempt them. Well, you know, listen, listen, putting two touchdowns on a ticket,

never hurt anybody before, you know. So, you know, I might have to go to that. But I do have a little crazier version of this parlay that I can throw you next here. So you're not going to like this, Joe, but I loved what you had to say about Dalton Kincaid. So I threw Dalton Kincaid on there. He's putting the stink on it. 50 or more receiving yards. So we added him to the mix.

And then this one, I don't usually go this route, but I just, I don't know, a little bit of a feeling, a little bit of a hunch. I got Jalen Waddle to catch a pass 30 yards or longer. Just one catch for over 30 yards. I think it's going to be a Tyree game. I think they're going to be down. I think the bills are going to put it on them. And I think he's going to find, might have to wait until garbage time for that one to hit,

but he's going to find Jalen Waddle once or twice. I don't expect a big Jalen Wadle game, but I do expect one big Jailen Wadle catch. That's going to be at plus around plus 4,000, 3,734. I only put a half a unit on that, you know, but if that one does hit. Yeah. Yeah.

If that one does hit, hopefully the wife and kids will come home and we can be a family again. So that's what I'm rocking with for this week. If either one of these parley's hits, by the way, I'm going to have you brag about it right away on social media. So you can maybe throw out an extra one for the Sunday slate so people can potentially tail that one. So, you know, the Waddle one doesn't, that's not that insane T, bro, because we already know they're not going to have

most dirt. So they're already down a weapon. A. Chan might be limited if he goes. Now, the bills had a tough time stopping James Connor, at least in the first half of last week's game against the Cardinals. So maybe Jeff Wilson and or A. Chan or Jalen Wright could have some success as a runner. But you would have to imagine that the dolphins, and by the way, slot corner, Teran Johnson's out of this game.

So there's more opportunity for the, for the dolphins to get it done through the air. I don't know. Not too insane to me. No, I actually kind of like it. We'll see how it turns out, but yeah, I'd like a lot of those legs on that parlay. So we'll see if it all comes together. Maybe we'll have a shootout. That's the problem

with these Thursday night games. They can sometimes be stinky ones, but this this total has started at 51 and it's down to like 49, 48, depending on where you're looking. So it has dropped a little bit. So that would be my one concern is that maybe the defenses are a little bit more respectable tonight. But yeah, I'm kind of liking this.

I'm digging this one, at least the first one. I don't know about all these additional legs, but I kind of like the first part I get threw out there. He is poisoning my mind right now because when he sent this in our group chat, I was like, this is entirely too reasonable. You've got to throw some stink on that, man. You got to get that thing a little sloppy. And unfortunately, I don't want to encourage him to bet more.

I mean, for the purpose of this podcast, you probably should have. So, hold on. Let's, let's remove the good friend Trey persona for just a second. Oh. What the hell was the parlay that hit the other night? Yeah. The parlay that I rocked with the other night, like I said, Keith's sweat of the free bet. That's, uh, that's the moniker I like to go by.

Uh, I think it was draft. And I think it was ESPN bet gave me, uh, 25 free bet, $25. So, uh, I cooked up a monster. Rishi Rice 80 plus yards banked that I mean that was never was concerned about that I think everybody was on Rishie Rice having a big game I had Isaiah likely and justice Hill both have over 25 receiving yards obviously we know how that we had those we gave those out in the the pod yeah some sharp stuff and then you got to love this Rishad Bateman yes over 40 receiving yards last drive of the game he gets over by just a couple yards.

I told my girlfriend, I said, that's two G's. That's two G's maybe on the free bet. Keith Sweat strikes again. And then she still left you after Sunday? Yeah. After the, well, come on. I put the mortgage on Devante Adams.

So. But, you know, we'll get back. At least you got 2K of that back. Yeah, we'll always make it back. You know what? Feeling pretty good about it. That first win and, again, the DFS lineups were built a lot.

around Devante Adams. So that was unfortunate. But, you know, it's always, every week's a new chance to get back on top of the leaderboard. So I'm fighting through it. And I'm not taking the lineups away. In fact, I might add some more lineups this week. We are just absolutely dedicated sickos with all the action we have on tonight's game, Thursday night football Buffalo at Miami. Us having overs on this game is making me nervous given it's a Thursday night game. But hey, that's why we're not wise. We're just guys. This is the best pet show at fantasy points for good friend train Tom Braille. I'm Joe Dolan. Take it easy, everybody.