Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Week 3 Get-Right + Trey's Insane "70 Club"

Episode Date: September 19, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

that we start and end every podcast that we do by saying we're not wise. We're just guys navigating the world of sports betting. At least I am. You're much more into it than I am. I live in a Philistine state, so I don't even have a legal sports betting book, but there are ways for me to get around that. Let me tell you something. I had three best bets last week.

One of them I think I was on the right side of. That was Dalton Kincaid over four and a half receptions. They targeted Dalton Kingade twice on the opening drive. he got two catches. He left to get briefly evaluated for a concussion, caught only two more balls. I'll take that as kind of a badish beat. I made two ATS picks last week against the spread, and they were immediately on the wrong side. They were immediately blown up. They were wrong side right from the opening kickoff, that being the Cowboys and the Colts, wrong side right from the kickoff. In ways I almost prefer that than giving me an opportunity to get backdoored. But holy crap.

were those two awful bets. And that's the slings and arrows of week two of the NFL season. Yeah, I ended up joining you on the Cowboys bet at minus six. Yeah, that one was done. As soon as I saw Rashid Shaheed go, I'm like, oh, we're going to do the same thing as they did last week to the Panthers. So that one was dead on arrival. At least the Colts one, I kept believing maybe something would happen.

You know, it's Malik Willis on the other side. Maybe there would be a pick or, you know, he'd do something. and stupid, but literally the Colts never put pressure on them, and they just ran Josh Jacobs into the line of scrimmage the entire game. So that was dead. So the one that really hurt me, I ended up going 0 and 4 on the ATS picks that I gave out. It was a rough week. I don't typically struggle like this, but the one that really hurt me was betting on

Will Levis in the Tennessee Titans. Looks great. All game. control first and you know third and goal at the goal you know in the second quarter there to go up potential at least 10 points maybe 14 and then he tries to go all superman and pitching the ball back to i think it was spears on the field uh and then you know after the game calahan calls him dumb he you know it was just a dumb play uh so that that's what i guess that's what i get for backing will levice uh the titans looked like the right side the entire game and uh they even drove the ball down

the field and we're inside the 10 and d'andre hopkins is getting absolutely mugged in the in the end zone no penalties uh so lost that one so but at least the player props player props were we're cooking last week uh 9 and 5 overall even my stupid key on coleman bed on thursday night football so uh even everything kind of evened out in the end but uh look at do a little bit better on the ats and hopefully keep cooking on these player props. Well, Tom, let's go into Thursday night and we always kick off our best bet show with Thursday night football. It's the Jets hosting the Patriots three games in 11 days for Aaron Rogers coming off a torn Achilles. I always like to make a prop bet here that I like. Week one, nailed Isaiah likely. We cleaned up in week one. Week two, I fell a half catch short with Dalton

Kincade. I am going back to the prop well in week three. This is a prop I have hit each of the first two weeks of the season. Until they put this number closer to 40 or until I'm given a reason not to bet it, I am going to continue hitting Breesall over the receiving yards. I have Breeshall over 30 and a half receiving yards minus 107. I don't know where you can get that. That's where I got it at my book, over 30 and a half. This is something he can do in one play, as we have seen over the first couple weeks of the season. He caught that great touchdown pass from Aaron Rogers, apparently called his shot. He said to Rogers, look, if I, if I'm open here, or if I'm on a linebacker, just throw me the ball, I'm going to beat him. That's exactly what happened.

I guess there's a concern. The Jets might not have to throw that much against the Patriots, but Breesaw over the 30 and a half receiving yards. This is a bet. I am going to continue making until He gives me a reason not to make it. Breesaw over 30 and a half receiving yards is my best bet for Thursday night. Joe, I actually have that one written up. I did not post it yet. I'm just kind of holding out. This might be up on my card by the time Thursday morning rolls around.

I'll tell you what I have. He's hit this number 39 plus yards in nine of his last 14 games. Joanne Bentley is out of the game. Our projections have him for 46. So I am also liking this prop. I haven't quite given it out, but that might change by the time you're listening to this. So make sure to check out my best bets on fantasy points.com.

I'll go back to the prop well, too. And if I'm making an ATS pick on this game, I do kind of like the Patriots here for the reasons you kind of laid out here. They got three games in a short period of time, a physical game against the 49ers in week one, down to the wire against the Titans last week. Now they have to play their division rival, been a little frisky here through the first couple weeks.

I like this. If you can get a six and a half, I think there's still out there as of Wednesday night. It looks like it's moving towards six. So I do like that Patriots side if I am playing this game. But I went to Antonio Gibson, over 20 and a half rushing yards. Pretty involved here last week, 33% carry share.

Short week, I'm thinking maybe they want to, not run Ramandre Stevenson into the ground, maybe get Antonio Gibson a little bit more involved. Our projections have him for 35.7 yards. So he's been able to hit seven carries in each of his first two games with the Patriots. He's kind of been used a little differently than I was expecting. I thought he was going to be more of the passing back

after playing with the commanders the last couple of years. His specialty was more in the passing game, but he's been factoring in as a runner quite a bit here, at least through the first two games. and average an up over 4.2 yards per carry for his career here. So we picked on this prop last week. I took Tony Pollard over his rushing yards. It was a little sketchy there.

Needed Tajay Spears to get a little banged up and miss a little bit of time towards the end of that game. But Pollard ended up getting there. Jets, this is how we want to attack them, is on the ground. And that's the way the Patriots have been playing all year around here. So going for this low number at 20 and a half rushing yards. I thought this would be mid-20s. So it's got about a carrier two cushion, I believe, here at 20 and a half.

So going towards Antonio Gibson over his rushing yards. I know, Tom, you say you prefer the Patriots from a spot standpoint, but this is the restart button, right? This is Roger's first home game back since tearing the Achilles. What kind of emotions do you think here? Do you ever use, like, kind of an emotional angle to bet an NFL spread or total? Yeah, I don't I wouldn't really cook that into this game. Honestly, you know, I'm a little concerned about this Jets team.

Just lost Jermaine Johnson last week. I don't think they've been particularly crisp on offense and defense they have been run on a little bit. So I've been kind of higher on the Patriots all off season. I have over their win total at four and a half and I've been, you know, I do the season, you know, the ATS picks every week. and I've been on the Patriots in the first two games. So I'm going to be on them again here. I think the market is still just a little bit low on the Patriots. I am a little bit worried Bentley is going to be out in the middle of the field there for him.

But I just like this. I think it's just going to be a close, low scoring game. Jets probably win 20 to 16 or something like that. But I think the Patriots have enough here to keep it close. I like Breeze all over the receiving yards tonight. Make sure you get the right line or, make sure you get the best line if you like that one. T-Bro likes Antonio Gibson over the rushing yards tonight. Again, make sure you get the best line if you like that bet. We're going to pay some

bills. We're going to come back and we're going to talk about some of these quarterback situations around the league. Oh, and yeah, later on, unfortunately, good friend Trey is back with another hot one that he's cooked up in the lab. So we'll have to get to him at some point. T-bro, we have injury news around the league, but we also have quarterback movement around the league in terms of injuries. We've got quarterback movement in terms of benching in the case of Bryce Young. We've got uncertain quarterback situations. And some of these are going to tie directly into my best bets for the week. So Tom, I want you to analyze what you saw from Green Bay last week.

You and I were both going against Green Bay, wrong side right from the get-go in that game against the Indianapolis Colts. I bet Green Bay plus three yesterday. And I bet Green Bay plus three at Tennessee yesterday before the news came down that Jordan Love was going to practice. So Jordan Love with that leg injury, knee injury, whatever you want to call it, practiced in a limited fashion, I guess opening the door for him to play this week. Now, as of our recording, the line has moved off of three. it is two and a half. I don't know if it's going to move any more towards Green Bay or if it's just a little bit of a buyback on a key number,

given that, you know, Matt LaFlead did a good job with Malik Willis last week running the football against Indy. Tennessee has gotten off to a rough start. Will Levis cannot stop making dumb mistakes. Or do you think there's a real chance here, T-Bro, that Jordan Love is going to play this week, in which case I would think this number goes back even harder in Green Bay's favor. Yeah, if, uh,

Jordan Love does end up playing. I think Packers will probably go off his favorites, probably in the two-point range. I don't know if it gets all the way out to a field goal. But LaFleur, we were kind of, you know, people were making fun of them a little bit last week, like never fully closing the door on his quarterback and, you know, saying out, they're holding out hope that he could play on Sunday. But it never, never happened. But he's out there taking some reps here.

We'll see if, see if he progresses at all. I still think probably week four is closer. I mean, Ian Rappaport was on Sunday saying it was going to be probably week five for him. But just the fact that he's out there practicing has made this line move from plus three for the Packers down to two and a half. I honestly kind of like the Titans side a little bit, but then again, they've been burning me the first two weeks in our picking every game against the spread. I had the Titans against the Bears and they gave away that game. and obviously last week I was on the Titans against the Jets and they gave away that one too.

So maybe I just need to stop trusting Will Levis. But I think overall, the Titans have been playing pretty well here through the early part of the season, at least defensively. And offensively, Calvin Ridley's been making some plays. And Tony Pollard has been much better than what he showed, at least in the early part of the last season against, you know, for Dallas last year.

So I kind of like the, Titan side here a little bit, but if you may have gotten a fantastic number at plus three, if this line, you know, if Jordan Love does play, because I think this line is going to cross over to the Packers being favorites. And so you're in a good spot here. You're in a spot of strength because like the worst case scenario is that he doesn't play. And, you know, maybe it settles back at plus three, but it kind of feels like this line probably is going to settle at plus two and a half here. So, I mean, look, Tom, I totally acknowledge I'm on a square side here. And I think last week I was on two square sides.

And both of those square sides absolutely lit me on fire. But sometimes the squares are right, you know? And hopefully I'm square enough to be right this week. Do you have any ATS best bets this week, Tom? I've got another one that involves another quarterback situation. Actually, let's get to that first because it does involve another one of the key quarterback situations. I got the Panthers plus six at Vegas. I think people, you know, are going to understand, look, man, the Raiders,

they beat Baltimore. And, you know, there were some penalty calls in that game. I'm not really sure what the hell Baltimore was doing. Baltimore's offensive line could not block Max Crosby. And I'll say this. And this is a bad thing for Bryce Young. Bryce Young was one of the least pressured quarterbacks in all of week two. Like that Panthers offensive line, which they invested picks and money into.

to has held up reasonably well through two weeks, which is bad news for Bryce Young. It's probably good news for Andy Dalton. And it's probably good news for Deontay Johnson. I don't think the Raiders should be favored by six points over anybody who's got a professional quarterback. And that's what I think the Panthers have right now. I think the sixes are gone. There are some five and a halfs out there.

Obviously, those are gross numbers. I think I see a four and a half out there. But so it seems like people, at least, I don't know if this is a sharp thing or a square thing, but it seems like some people agree with me that the Raiders shouldn't have been favored by six over anyone. So I have the Panthers getting six from the Raiders in Vegas. I think Andy Dalton comes out here and makes the Panthers a competitive football team. And I don't know what your handicap is for Bryce Young and where you moved your power rating. Yeah, I honestly, I moved it a point and a half and that's about where it's moved here in the

market so far. It was a seven point line on on Monday. I was I was honestly thinking about the Panthers, but I couldn't do it with what I've seen from Bryce Young the first couple weeks of the season here. But as soon as they announced Dalton, it came crashing down to six. And it's down to five and a half here moving forward the rest of the week. And I don't think we're going to see sixes pop back up. But just just a huge indictment on the state of Bryce Young through the first two weeks of the season. But, you know, I've been kind of impressed by the Raiders, by their passing attack through the first two games. This has been a team that we all thought coming into the season, it was just going to be run it, run it, run it, run it, run it, like we saw at the end of last season.

But they've had no success with Zemir White Shocker and with Alexander Madison running the ball. So this has become a very pass heavy team. They're second behind the Bengals right now in terms of pass rate over expectation. And I think it's what they should continue to do moving forward. And it's going to throw people that were kind of avoiding the Raiders passing game for fantasy. It's going to be, it's going to hurt them because Brock Bowers is playing so well right now, Devonthe Adams, Jacoby Myers. So this passing attack has been, you know, looked pretty decent through the first two weeks of

the season. But I'm with you. I'll be going back to the Panthers here. I backed them in our, picking every game against the spread in our staff picks. I backed them the first two weeks and it's been a disaster. And I'll probably go back to him again here on Thursday

whenever I make my official picks that come out at like four o'clock on the website. But yeah, I don't feel great about it. But I'm with you. I think Andy Dalton just being just a, you know, a veteran quarterback that's going to get the ball to where it's supposed to be. And he's got playmakers.

That's the one thing we kind of, if there was some optimism for Brace Young this year, is they go out and get Deonti Johnson. They drafts Xavier Leggett. Adam Thielen is, you know, fine as a slot receiver. So if he's just competent at quarterback, this offense could have a little bit of a pulse. And as you said, the Raiders are not that great of a team.

They probably should not be laying a touchdown to anybody. Another uncertain quarterback situation. It doesn't look like the markets are terribly concerned right now, Tom. Justin Herbert did not practice with that leg injury that he suffered. As a matter of fact, our guy Edwin Porras thought mechanically, it was a very similar injury to the one that Isaiah Pacheco suffered. Obviously, Justin Herbert would not be out there if he had a fractured fibula. So he must have avoided the worst.

Nonetheless, he didn't practice on Wednesday. That being said, Pittsburgh is a one and a half point favorite. against the Chargers in Pittsburgh. This would be a bigger spread, in my opinion, if the markets and the betters really thought Easton Stick was going to be the quarterback. Yeah, there hasn't been any concern here. I think it probably would,

not that the Steelers are going to be a team that's laying huge amounts of points at any point this season, even if they would go against the Carolina Panthers. As we've seen the first two weeks of the season, they're going to play methodically. You know, they're not going to push tempo. They're not going to be chucking it around. So if, you know, if Herbert doesn't go, I think it probably goes to three at least, maybe to three and a half.

But the market has not, you know, it does not seem concerned at all. Maybe this is just a maintenance day. So usually when we see anything involving a quarterback, as we saw with Jordan Love, these lines tend to move some. But this one has kind of just stayed pat at one and a half with the Steelers. So the market is not too concerned that Justin Herbert is not going to play. Tom, I want to get into your ATS best bets. I believe I represent the squares on this podcast because I definitely picked some square sides. I don't know if Carolina is a square side.

It feels like a side of the public probably wouldn't want to be anything close to betting on, but I'm definitely on a square side with backers this week. Did you hit anything in your best bets market? You said you got cleaned out on ATS while there's nowhere to go, butt up this week, my friend. Yeah, I have two pretty square plays and one of them moved against me. I totally read the market wrong. I had the Seahawks minus five and a half here. I thought this line without Tua in the mix with Skyler Thompson at quarterback,

I thought this was a line that was going to move potentially to six, six and a half. So I wanted to get in on it before it got to that key number of six. But it has instead moved the other direction down towards four and a half, which we were talking about Bryce Young to Andy Dalton. I think that kind of tells you what the market is. kind of thinking of two attack tagavalo's play at least early in the season that this this line is actually coming back towards the dolphins and in skyler thompson so uh i thought that was notable

i'm on the seahawks uh you know mike mcdonald cooking up a defense for you know what's essentially you know he's not a rookie quarterback but uh it has just three starts under his belt going up to seattle uh not the easiest place to play uh one of the longest trips that well it is the longest trip that you can actually play, you know, Seattle to Miami in the, in the continental U.S. here. So yeah, I'm on the Seahawks here. I liked what I saw from them last week, throwing it a little bit more. And of course, I think the reason why people are still backing the dolphins here is that they still have Tyree Kill.

They still have Jalen Waddle and they still have A-chan. So as long as Skylar Thompson can distribute the ball and get the ball to his best players, they can make plays and maybe keep this game close. So misread the market on that one, but I still don't mind the spot here with the Seahawks minus five and a half. It's not like that point from five and a half to four and a half is a very key, key number right now. So the other one I got a little bit of a, this is a square side as well.

I took the 49ers laying seven. It has moved up to seven and a half at a bunch of shops. There still is a draft Kings is still offering a minus seven on the 49. And this was just reading, you know, this was before the Cooper Cup news came out. Figured he was not going to play this week. And now, yeah, now he's dealing with this ankle injury that's going to keep him out multiple weeks. Offensive line is just completely decimated with injuries. Puka Nakua was obviously out last week.

So, but we also got news. I think the only reason that this line hasn't gone up more because it did touch eight, eight and a half on Monday afternoon. We got news later in the afternoon that Debo Samuel is out for a couple of weeks here for a calf injury. So that is, I think, you know, stop the line from moving even higher here. So I ended up, you know, getting a decent one here at minus seven. But, you know, you can still get in on this one and still get a minus seven. But, Joe, I like a couple of props in this one.

The player props have started to come out here a little bit, two spots. I really like here. Anytime one of these big, big three receivers for the 49ers around, we love to pile on the other guys. And I'm getting on both of them. I took a little bit of Brandon Ayuk at 61.5 over his receiving yards. And George Kittle, over 48 and a half receiving yards. Both of those were at Bet 365. But our projections both have these guys easily clearing these numbers by basically 16, 17 yards in both cases. So we feel like the market is a little bit off here. You know, Debo gets funneled a lot of targets.

Ayukes just missed a couple big plays. It's been a little bit of a slow start for him. But this RAM secondary has been absolutely torch Tradavius White. If you watch that Sunday night game with James and Williams, absolutely just spritten past them. They're giving up the most yards per target and the most receiving yards per game to outside receivers to start the season. So it was a good spot even if Debo was playing.

And then we have George Kittle just coming off a 7 for 76 game last week. And if we go back to last season when Debo was out, he posted 78 yards against the Vikings and 149 yards against the Bengals. So these two have typically smashed whenever, you know, whatever Debo is out. And we also got to throw in here. Jordan Mason doesn't catch the ball in the passing game. You know, Christian McCaffrey's out of the lineup right now.

That's typically, you know, another 30 to 40 receiving yards that are available. I think these markets are a little bit under price. I jumped in on a prop for Joanne Jennings late last week just because I don't think, I don't think the books are, you know, accounting enough for just the receiving production that Christian McCaffrey has left behind. And Jordan Mason really isn't stepping into any of that receiving. in production. So in this game, two good spots. Tibet, Iyuk and Kittle. I just hope the Rams, I don't want them to cover, obviously,

but at least have a pulse this week. Don't get absolutely, don't get their doors blown off like they did against the Cardinals. We want to be able to get both of these props and get a little San Francisco minus seven. So might be able to turn that one into a little same game parlay here later this week. Tom, one game I want to touch on. I have no idea which way I can talk myself. into both angles here. I think it's a really key game on Sunday. And it's a key game because one and two looks so much better than O-N-3. It's not even close.

And we got a Ravens team coming off blowing, a 10-point fourth quarter lead at home to the Raiders versus a Cowboys team that just got absolutely diarrhea on at home against the New Orleans Saints, a spot of pride for the Cowboys, and a must-win game for the Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys are catching, Tom, two, excuse me, one and a half at home. That seemed a little backwards to me, but maybe the books are baking in just how desperate

the Baltimore Ravens are going to be in this spot. I don't know which way to lean, but I figure this is going to be a game that's going to get a lot of action as a Dallas game always does. Yeah, I am on, I might be adding this to my best place later this week. I need to see how the injury reports kind of play out. but I am kind of liking this Ravens side. It typically would be about a pick-em game for me, but this spot is mad.

They have to throw the kitchen sink at this one because their upcoming, I mean, there's a legitimate chance they could start 0 and 5 if they don't win this game. They have the bills next week, and then they have the Bengals in week five. So this is a spot where they have to get a win on the board here, or they're playing from a huge deficit moving forward.

So I kind of want to, I want to kind of play the desperate side. And I think that's completely why the Baltimore Ravens are a favorite in this spot. If this was a game in week like week nine or 10, you know, Dallas probably is a one point favorite in this game. But just situationally, this is a much bigger spot here for Baltimore. So not that the Cowboys want to fall too far behind, but, you know, the Eagles lost on Monday night football.

You know, the Giants and commanders, they're playing weird games like they were. last week, but it's the spot's not as desperate here for the Cowboys. But so I understand why this line is shaded toward the Ravens. But yeah, if this was any other time, it would probably be closer to pick him or Cowboys favor. Tom, unfortunately, we gave a good friend Trey extra time to throw extra legs onto whatever disgusting parlay. He's about to throw at us after our break.

When we come back, the world's worst gambler. I am challenging him for that. throne, but the world's worst gambler, good friend Trey, joins the best bets program. Welcome in, Trey. Let me tell you something. You have the, you have the snake tongue of Grima from the Lord of the Rings because you convinced both me and Tom to sprinkle money on whatever it was awful bet you made last week. You convinced us to sprinkle money on Devante Adams to score multiple touchdowns in week one. I don't think anything's even come close to hitting yet.

So you got to win some bet here. We advertise you as the world's worst gambler. So hopefully nobody's tailing you too much. But what are you got for us this week, man? It's week three. You're down about 772 units. What's happening this week, man? It was a difficult week.

You know, I thought I had something cooking. We got a bad script in the Thursday. night game uh you know james cook i had him for two receptions he had that receiving touchdown and then nothing after that uh just was you know and then of course he has three touchdowns i had josh allen scoring a touchdown everyone you know i mean listen i'm moving past it not concerned about it at all but we have all this data now uh now that we're two weeks in and i'm feeling really good and uh i want to tell you guys what i did after thursday night you want to know what i did what's up i got on my phone i called my handyman i said come over

right now bring the bulldozer i want you to bulldoze my entire house except for the lab all of it i don't want to leave this place the wife of kids left a long time ago you got nothing to worry about come over here rip my house down i only want the lab it's the only place i want to be and that's exactly what happened and that's where i've been do you have a handyman yeah i mean i got a i got a guy for everything and your handyman has a bulldozer yeah well he's usually they have like a wrench or something I've got a guy that has a bulldozer guy. I got guys that have guys. That's my, you know.

So you've been in the lab, though. You've been cooking something up. I hope so. People are desperate for a winner here. I mean, after last week, it was a tough week on the pod on week two. So we can't even bury it too much. We didn't give out enough winners last week. I didn't give out any winners last week.

Yeah. I'm not knocking him too much. All right, Trey. But I haven't made any. parles this week. You always have some sort of narrative going. What, what, what's, what's happening on narrative street? Now, you, as a matter of fact, you live on narrative street. And quite frankly, now with, with the rest of your house bulldoze, you have an open window onto narrative street. So you have seen every good narrative coming down the pike today. I, I own all the houses on narrative street and I

won't rent any of them out. I don't want neighbors. You know, I want to just be there by myself. But you guys really, I know, and I know you're not going to like to hear this. But you are not going to believe this parlay. It is so insane, so doable. And my parlay last week was plus 500 and some. This is going to be over plus 1,000. And I'm telling you, I'm telling you by the end of this spiel, you're going to be like, that is a mistake.

The books are messing up. How could this possibly be? So let's get right into it. I'm calling this parlay the 70 club, okay? And I know I already said it. You are not going to believe this. You are not going to believe it. Leg number one, D'Andre Swift to have 70 rushing yards.

Okay. Oh, no, I hate it already. I know. He's looked horrible all year. I know. I know you're not going to like it, but listen. DeAndre Swift is no slouch. He's not great, but he's no slouch.

The bears cannot pass blotch. to save their lives. And what have the Colts done in week one and two? They gave up 150 yards to Joe Mixing, and they gave up 150 yards to Josh Jacobs. We just need 70, okay? We just need 70 yards for DeAndre Swift. I think the bears are going to want to run the ball a little more,

take a little bit of that pressure off of Caleb Williams. The offensive line has been atrocious, okay, when it comes to protecting the quarterback. So you've got to establish a run game in this game. That is the beginning of this. parley diadre swift seven fours de force de force balkter out of the lineup too he landed on the i r and uh leotu lot too banged up a little bit they're a little thin up there they are getting banged up here well i it's it's been gross for swift so far but this is the the premier matchup for a running back so

okay i'm i'm i got a toe in here i'm partially in right now the next leg okay you're really not going to like this because you've got some action here. George Kittl, 70 receiving yards. Okay? We've got him projected right at 69 and a half. Ayuk, you know, he is a couple drops, like you said. You know, who knows if it's, you know, really rust or whatever. But if he is a little bit rusty, you know, this is an amazing spot for George Kittle

to just have one of those blow-up games. And one other thing I wanted to touch on, because this is important context that I don't think a lot of people are vibing with or really, really nice. No. Brock Purdy, okay? Going back to his Iowa State days, it was crucial to not let Brock Purdy get down on himself. You know the Will Levis turn over last week? You know, that Brock party was doing that once a game at Iowa State, okay? It is crucial that they write the ship with Brock Purdy this week. Don't let him lose confidence. Get him back. Let him, let him get it going, let him go crazy, let him build that confidence back up. Because when he gets in his head and

when he's losing his confidence, you're going to see Will Levis type stuff. Okay, I'm an Iowa state fan. I lived it. That's why I was not a big Purdy believer, but so far, he's never lost confidence. They dominate every week so far in his career except for last week. So it's very important to write the ship with Brock Purdy. So George Kittle, 70 receiving yards, book that. And you want to know what the third leg is?

Yeah, what's here? I'm with you on the Kittle one, so you got me on that one. So I'm kind of digging this so far. I'm not still not in love with the swift one, but we'll see what this, this last leg is. So, so now you're really going to be digging it because there is no third leg. It's those two legs combined for plus 1,000, 70 swift rushing yards and 70 kiddle receiving yards plus 1,000. That's actually not that bad. Are you kidding?

It's not. It's crazy. I didn't think, uh, I didn't think it was it was going to be this easy this week, but they're giving us free money. So it seems like you need a little bit more action to get up to that number, but you don't. All you need is DeAndre Swift, 70 rushing yards against the abysmal Colts run D and George Kittle, 70 receiving yards. Again, we didn't even talk about the Rams. Very doable. Okay. I'm going to sprinkle a little something on that.

I see our projections have Swift at 60 yards. So, I mean, if you're not getting it done with DeAndre Swift this week, I mean, forget about it. You know, it's like, It's like I've said, if you have Zemir White on your fantasy team and you're not using him this week or he doesn't get it done this week, then why is he even on your roster? Like they've got the Panthers. They're big fans. Look, I'm on the Panthers side, but the Panthers don't have Derek Brown.

Like, I, I'm, Trey, this is like kind of gross that I, I don't know how you talk me into this crap. It's, it's, it's right there. I mean, I said, I don't even have to do much talking. It's, it just makes too much sense. And I need to say this, too. Chris Wecht, fantastic projections guy. You said DeAnders Swift projected for 60. That's totally fine because no good projections analyst at this.

No, no, no, yeah. Could push it any further than that and maintain credibility. It is a little bit out there. But this is the blow-up spot. It could not get any better than this blow-up spot for Swift. And I will say this. I think Swift, I bet 70 because I think Swift is going to flirt with 100 yards this week. And I think George Kittal is going to flirt with 90 to 100 yards this week.

So that's why we left it in the 70 club. Oh, no. We're being a little conservative here. I was going to say, what's the Century Club looking like if we would do both of those? I didn't put it together, but it's going to be a pretty payday. So I may come back and sprinkle a few shekels on the 100 yard club for both of them. But I feel like it's a get right week for me. I got to make it happen.

So I went in, I said, how can I maximize our purpose? profits and make it easy. Bam, this is what we got. Actually, like, you are, you should get into politics, man, because you're talking me into DeAndre 50's been, I think by the way, like, by our metrics at Fancy points data, the worst running back in football this year. Yeah. So, I mean, it's, it's pretty brutal.

Yeah, he's, he's, I have it in my game hub here. He's averaging half of, half of a yard before contact per attempt. And he's at one and a half. yards after contact per attempt. So he's right at 2.0 yards per carry. Yeah, he's absolutely miserable in both of those metrics. But this is the Colts defense. This could be, I guess maybe, you know,

every year there's one of these defenses that we're always targeting. I can remember it was the Texans a couple years back before last year, the lions before the last year or so. We always have this defense that we're always, you know, targeting for fantasy for a running. running backs and this might be the get right spot for D'Andre Swift. He really needs it. You know in basketball how they always say, you know,

a good defense, better offense. So this is bad offense, but worse defense. Okay. So that's what we're leaning on here. He's atrocious, but the only remedy, the only get right for the problem DeAndre Swift has is playing against the

Indianapolis Colts. That's what we're looking at. And I tell you what, Caleb Williams has been taking an absolute beating the first two weeks. If they can use the little script that the Green Bay Packers used last week, only toss it, you know, 20, 25 times with the rookie quarterback. They would gladly do that. So, well, you kind of got me.

I mean, I love the kiddle prop, obviously. I have over his receiving guards. And when he, he's like an all or nothing guy. He really, he really hits big whenever he does go over his player props. So you got me sold. I'm going to be, I'm going to be jumping in on this as well. Well, good friend Trey, once again, cooking up a stinker that actually sounds kind of appealing. That is what he tends to do here on the best bet show at Fantasy Points Now and the Fantasy Points Podcast Network for Tom Brawley and good friend Trey.

Remember, as we proved last week, we are not wise. We are merely guys.