Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Week 4 Thursday NIght Football Bets + Trey's "Night Off"

Episode Date: September 26, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. I have better news to report from last week's best bet. I didn't get cleaned out. My, my, my, I made two against the spread picks on last week's program, which we will talk about. And unlike my week two best bets against the spread T, bro, I actually was on the right side right from the opening kickoff and knew I was going to win those bets right from the opening kickoff. Was not the case in week two. Let's see if we could keep the forward momentum going here on the best bet show at fantasy points and fantasy. he points now. It is great to be with everybody. I'm Joe and that's Tom, of course. And

good friend trail finagle his way into the program a little bit later, cooking up another heater. I think he took a zero yet again last week. The world's worst gambler. Voided bet last week. George Kittle with the hamstringager. So it's not a loser. It's the best bet he makes all week. Yeah. Honestly, the voided bet with the George Kittle. Look, I was coming for his title as the world's worst gambler last week. This week, I feel a lot better. Um, I missed my, my Thursday night prop by a yard, I think. Oh, I, I did see that. I was like, because it got into blowout time. I'm like, oh, brailing Allen's in. I'm like, oh, dude, it's done. Yeah, yeah. The Patriots couldn't keep it up. But I got another Thursday night prop to talk about this week.

Tebrough, how are you doing, man? How are the best bets last week? Mine, how are you feeling about this year? My pick on the other hand, it's squeaked out by, uh, you know, garbage time rushing yardage from Antonio Gibson on that Thursday night game. So overall, though, the player props were six and seven, I think, small loser. ATS picks were freaking great. They were two and no, looked like it was heading to three and oh. 49ers were up 14 points late against the Rams. And somehow they lost that game.

Geez, the Rams didn't even want to throw the ball in that game. and they still somehow lost to the rim. So small winner in the ATS picks. I do the every game in our staff picks and winning weeks in all three weeks there and up above 60%. So check those out on Thursday afternoons. Everybody seems to love those.

They're always complaining about where are they at? Where are they at? I put them up the same time every week for the last five years that we've been doing this. So yeah, looking to staff. together a bunch of wins here one of these weeks it's it's just been a basically a 500 year here so far but one of you one of these weeks we're getting more data and the fantasy points data suite so hopefully uh we start popping out some some winners here in the next couple of weeks uh this tom so

let's talk about the thursday night game um you want to talk about a game um again i'm going to go to you for your best bet because you have one here always like to make one on the Thursday night you want to talk about a game that is must win for the cowboys all of a sudden you're sudden the Giants are looking a little bit more competitive. You know, we made fun of them in week two because they were the first team in NFL history to score three touchdowns, give up none, and still lose the game. Well, all of a sudden, it's looking like the fact that they managed to keep the commanders out of the end zone was a hell of an achievement following what Jaden Daniels did on Monday night.

Meanwhile, Malik Neighbors has established himself as a star. So this Giants team, maybe just a little bit better than we were anticipating. painting. That being said, they got some injuries in the secondary. It's still not a deep team. I still don't find this to be a particularly inspiring offensive line. And the Dallas Cowboys need to win this game. The Cowboys cannot start the season at one and three, which with honestly what looked like a relatively easy schedule. You know, Baltimore is a toss-up game, but you feel Dallas opens with the Browns, the Saints and the Giants before the States. season that looks like a three and one stretch at worst and now the cowboys could fall to one and three

tom we're looking right now here dallas uh laying the five and a half there is a six out there this opened i believe less than this yeah four and a half i actually have this as a bet bet best bet i gave us out on monday figuring this line would get to six points by by the time kickoff rules around here so um if you want to join me uh get it while it's at five and a half i think this is getting the six by the time kickoff comes around here. There are some sixes out there. Draft Kings has one right now. Yeah, so hopefully when you're listening to this,

there's still some five and a halfs, but maybe some action. I think this is going to climb to six. As you said, the secondary is a little beat up. That's going to lead to one of our other best bets, but I just think I'm with you, Joe. I ended up betting on the Ravens last week.

We talked about it on the show. You called that right. I would stay away from Dallas after what they did. Yeah. Yeah, I just thought that was a must-win spot for the Ravens, but the Cowboys are now in a must-win spot because of that loss. And also going back to this, this is a game that the Cowboys have absolutely dominated in recent history. They're just clean up on the Giants.

I think I bet on this game every year, every twice a year, bet on the Cowboys laying the points in this game. And they've won six straight outright. and they've covered five of those games in the last, that six game span. And they've covered seven times in the last 10 games in this matchup. So love the Cowboys here this week. They usually love to clean up on these lesser teams.

And this has kind of been their M.O. The last couple of years, that's why they always flame out in the playoffs once they play somebody that's the same caliber as them. We saw it last week, tight spread there. everybody thought it was a coin toss game and the Ravens were the superior team. So I think this is a spot where we're going to bet on the Cowboys here as the better team. They need to get right. And nothing really scares me about this matchup for the Giants.

The Ravens just went over and over and over again to the well with Derek Henry. I don't think that the Giants are going to have that same kind of success running with Devon Singletary, although he's looked pretty good in the early going. but I think they'll try to clean some things up. And I don't think the giant secondary will offer much resistance here. So like the minus four and a half up to minus five and a half, hopefully you don't have to lay the six here with the Cowboys on Thursday night football. Dak Prescott lost to the Cowboys twice in his rookie season.

He has not lost to them since. Excuse me, lost to the Giants twice in his rookie season. He hasn't lost to them since. The only game that the Cowboys have lost to the. the Giants, the only games that they've lost to the Giants since Dak Prescott's rookie season, Dak Prescott was enacted for. So this is Dak Prescott, a team that he absolutely, not just dominates, but he blows the Giants out. The only time the Giants have beaten the Cowboys since Dak Prescott's rookie season, Andy Dalton started the game. It was the final game of the

2021 season, or excuse me, the 2020 season, which obviously Dak Prescott went down with that broken ankle. So Dak Prescott, not only does he beat the Giants, he beats the hell out of the Giants. And I, like, I know, like, we're talking about, you know, a different Dallas team, Mike Zimmer not being part of the club, not being part of those teams in recent years since Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator there. But, but Tom, I mean, Dak Prescott against the Giants is basically Steph Curry at the free throw line at this point. Yeah, this was one of those I woke. I always put up my first initial bets up on Monday morning for subscribers for subscribers. And, you know, I start going down the list.

You know, it's like 7.30 in the morning. I'm like, oh, we got a Cowboys Giants game this week, Thursday night. That's like the only thing that kind of scares me away from it. It is a quick game. I got to go up to New York to play it. But when I saw it was less than six points, I'm like, well, that's an automatic bet for me with the Cowboys here this week. This game was six, six and a half before last week's results. And obviously the look ahead line moved by a couple points because of the giants going to Cleveland and pulling off a victory.

And the, you know, the Cowboys getting their doors blown in for 50 minutes of that game. Cleveland's a team that I'm sure you've, you've power adjusted, Tom. Yeah. I'm actually, I was a, I'm kind of kicking myself. That was one of, I was looking to bet the Raiders. And the Raiders were getting like a point or two. early in the week and now it's I was thinking about it. Don't really

trust the Raiders that much but now that line has moved to like minus one minus two. I bet against the Raiders last week, given points. There's no way I'm laying points with the Raiders. By the way, Max Crosby was out of practice on Wednesday. Yeah, that was

the one thing that kind of really scared me. I mean, watching Andy Dalton just pick apart that defense and without Max Crosby he said he's playing through a high ankle injury. So he's going to be missing a lot of practices and probably playing into games. But we digress there. But that's, I just like this spot for the Cowboys.

This is a spot where they've dominated in the past. We'll see if it continues. But I'd like their chances here. So we're talking Cowboys and Giants still. I actually have a best bet on this game. It was not against the spread. If I were to bet it against the spread, Tom, I would pick your side. I would bet on the Cowboys.

to cover this spread against the Giants. But I'm actually going to go to the prop well, the Giants. Drew Phillips and Adori Jackson are going to be out here. Their slot corner is about to be Isaiah Simmons, who's essentially a linebacker. Yeah. C.D. Lamb, C.D. Lamb, quote, after some bad body language last week, you know, John Hans is the body language doctor. Quote, this is from Calvin Watkins, who covers the team for the Dallas Morning News.

honestly, I got to be truthful to myself, and I played a part in that loss, a big part, honestly, and nor did my body language nor attitude approaching the situation, help the situation, or the outcome of the game. CD Lamb is going nuclear on Thursday night. I got him over 80 and a half receiving yards. I'd be, honestly, I'd bet that up to 90 plus. I don't like going up there, but I wouldn't be shocked if CD Lamb goes for a buck 50 in this game. Yeah, I'm on this one too.

I gave this out as well, 79 a half, but, uh, Yeah, this is it's still it moved up a little bit. It got up to, you know, I'm always tracking this stuff. It was 81, 82 and a half. But there has been a little bit buyback towards the under here. Seems even like a 78 and a half out in the market. So we'll see if this holds. I think we're going to see some action on it.

I think people are going to be in our camp as well, thinking that he should be able to exploit this matchup. And just I have this in my write-up here. Seven targets in the last two games on each of the last two games. The 13 games before that, he was seeing nine plus targets. Just not getting the ball enough. We know how the offense was humming whenever he was seeing more targets. So I think it's not only on CD, but it's also on Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy to get C.D. Lammore looks.

And just he's the giant killer here. Averaging 14 yards of reception, 90.3 receiving yards per game is his average in eight games against the Giants, dating back to his rookie season. So 151 yards in this matchup in week 10 last season. So everything is kind of lining up here that lambs should get right in this game. All right, Tom, we're going to take a step aside for our sponsors. Then we're going to get to the rest of the week four slate and some of the best bets that we have on that slate. So Tom, let's kick this off here.

I've actually, I've had made three best bets in each of my first three weeks. I'm four and five full transparency. We'll continue to, you post the art. the article. So I'll just talk about it on the podcast here, but I'm four and five with my best bets. I had two, two in one weeks and a week two was a disaster. I went 0 and 3. Initially, I didn't have a best bet against the spread. I don't know how long this number is going to be out there. You can tell me, because you read the markets way better than I do, but I saw the Saints Injury report. Eric McCoy, he's going on IR, Cesar Ruiz. He was in. He was

out on Wednesday. Alvin Camara was out on Wednesday with rib and hip injuries, maybe just being cautious there, given the offensive line injuries. Alante Taylor out with an illness, he'll probably end up playing. But that St. Offensive Line could not hold up against Jalen Carter. Now, I don't think the Falcons of anybody of the talent level of Jalen Carter on the interior of their offensive line, but Atlanta is sitting here, Tom, one and two, very well could be sure. You can argue, I think Dennis Allen said they could be three and oh. You can argue they should be 0 in three. It took the Eagles vomiting all over themselves to lose that game in week number two.

I don't know, like, I don't know must win spot or anything like that. But if you lose to the Saints, your two games down in the division four weeks into the year. They are at home. They are laying two and a half. I don't know if with the injuries to the Saints, especially along the offensive line in Camara, could this number get to three? That's why I bet it at the two and a half, Tom. I have the Falcons laying the two and a half at home against New Orleans, not a must win spot for the Falcons, but pretty damn close to it against their most hated rival. Yeah, this one did start at like one and a half earlier this week.

So this has moved a little bit because of the injury situation for the Saints. I think it will probably, if it does touch three, I think it'll be bought back down. It's going to be one of those. It's like the 2.75 lines here all week. So Falcons have some injury concerns as well that Sunday night game, their offensive line, McGarry and Dolman were banged up and neither guy. one on I are. Yeah, I was going to say it doesn't look good for either of those guys. So a little bit of concern there. The Saints pass rush has been pretty formidable here to start the season, at least in the first three games.

So small concern there, but you're right, the Falcons, this is a little bit bigger spot for them. But we all know this NFC South is probably going to go down to the last week. All these teams are going to be right around eight or nine wins going into that well, except for the Carolina Panthers. But who knows? Maybe they'll be in the thick of. it after what they did last week. But yeah, I'm with you on this side with with the Falcons. I'm not going to give it out as an official bet. But this is definitely my lean towards the Falcons here, especially while it's under a field bowl.

Tom, I have two, I have two props going this weekend. But do you have anything against the spread here on the Sunday slate that you're really looking at and really interested in? Yeah, I gave out two picks on the site. The one was I knew I was going to get people just absolutely hating on. it, but I gave out the Jacksonville Jaguars, getting an entire touchdown here, plus seven. This line has moved by three points because of the Monday night football result, and it's just too big of a move for me.

Texans have not been very impressive either. They're 02 and 1 against the spread. The only one they pushed was because the Bears, you know, that could easily, they were, let them hang around in that entire game. and I got some concerns. You know, Texans' offense. Looks like they're going to be without Joe Mixing again. So it's going to have to be a very pass-heavy game.

And Texans are a little banged up as well. So just I know that this one just stinks. I don't love giving it out. This is one of these crappy teams, 0 and 3. But this is a spot where the Jack Wired, I mean, if they have any pulse this season, they have to show up and try to dig themselves out of the holder in. This is the best way to do it.

you're going against the team that's at the top of the division. If you win this game, you're right back in the mix of things. So I'm taking the Jaguars plus seven. I'm just banking on them to keep it close here. Nothing about their play says that you should be taking them right now. But if we would have, you know, earlier, you know, before the season, this was basically a field goal game. So I don't think the Texans have warranted any kind of an adjustment.

If anything, I've adjusted them down in my power ranking. It's Jaguar is significantly down, but still think this line should be in the five, five and a half point range. And the other one I took, I'm jumping on my Steelers bandwagon laying a short price here on the road. Anthony Richardson has not, you know, I was high on Anthony Richardson before the season, but I'm going to cut my losses a little bit and don't think he's going to be winning the MVP this season and some of the other Colts props that we have. earlier this year, but it's been really rough for him. I was not even impressed by their victory last week. It was, you know, they just pulled it out. They did the bare minimum to win the game.

Steelers have been playing clean football, and this is going to be in a pretty ugly game. Totals at 39 and a half, and we know both teams are going to want to run the ball. And Colts have been one of the worst run defenses all year until last week and playing, you know, the Chicago Bears who can't run. run the ball. I think the Steelers will have some success against them.

So they did lose Alex Highsmith, but they got some, you know, Nick Herbig stepped up last week, was performed really well. So taking the Steelers minus one and a half, it has, you know, it has touched minus two at times early here this week and it's kind of bounced back. So I don't think this is one that's going to move to the Steelers minus three unless there's some big injury news late in the week. So this is a price that you should be able to get with the Steelers laying a short price on the road here. Tom, I actually have a bet in the Houston Jacksonville game and I'm going to go to some of our fantasy points data and ass because the king of ass last year, tank Dell, well, he hasn't really produced so far this year now. And I also have to throw

a caveat out there that he missed practice on Wednesday with a wrist and rib injuries. Damiko Rines is calling him day to day. So this might have. end up actually being a tray, good friend, tray level voided bet here with Tank Dell. But the Jaguars secondary has been a debacle right now. Tyson Campbell is on IR. Only this is just a phenomenal spot for Tank Dell. Every Bill's receiver last week had a win rate over 15% against the Jaguars and only Marquez Valdez Scantling had under a 0.1 ass. And Marquez Valdez Scantling, not necessarily known for his separation ability.

Never been an ass guy. Never been an ass guy. No, tanked L. And by the way, that's average separation score for those of you who aren't aware of ass. Make sure you go to our fantasy point store, by the way. And get an ass man t-shirt. I think we're trying to effort Mr. Ass, the wrestler, to potentially put one of those

on and do a video for us. But I digress. but a guy who needs to have a Mr. Ass, ass man t-shirt is Tankdale. And Tom, this guy absolutely flayed the Jaguars last year. Ten catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns in two games. He had a .259 ass. I don't know, you might not have context, but that's really good. And he basically won 27.6% of his routes, the highest of any player who faced the Jaguars twice last season.

tanked out 48 and a half receiving yards against the Jaguars give me the over the 48 and a half I actually I have the Nico Collins in this game so we're both lining up to take overs on this secondary right now we we have Nico Collins projected for 95 yards and going through his his game logs and stuff he's been up over 80 yards in his last seven healthy games so everything you kind of laid out there looks like he's going to line up on on Terek Brown who's been filleted, as he said, at the right corner spot. So, yeah, Jacksonville, giving up the sixth most receiving yards per game to receivers aligned out wide.

So we're both attacking a similar angle. I have to get quite a few more yards than you, 26 more yards to get over my prop. But Nico Collins has kind of been the, yeah, he's been the alpha here so far. And the Tank Dell stuff, we'll see about the injury stuff. It didn't work out for me last week. I gave out both George Kittle and Brandon Ayuk over their receiving yards props. George Kittle got announced shortly,

you know, like basically a couple days later, you know, came out that he had a hamstring injury probably about eight hours after the podcast came out. So that Brandon Ayuk prop went from like 61.5 when I gave it out to like 75 and a half, 76 and a half. And it was the Joanne Jennings game instead. So didn't get the line. I got plenty of closing line value on it, but couldn't get the win.

So Tankdale ends up sitting out this one. I could see Nico Collins's line skyrocketing here by another five to 10 yards at least up into the low 80s at least. So that was I'm attacking that same angle here. The Jaguars are also playing a lot of man defense. And, you know, Nico's kind of been the guy early in the, we can look at any metric against him in coverage. and he's going to look really good, but 4.2 yards per route run against man coverage so far. Just 20 routes, but doing real well. So we're both attacking this Jaguar's secondary with our player props.

I had absolutely no idea where to go in terms of the point spread in the Carolina Cincinnati game. Obviously, it being a must-win game for Cincinnati. I think that opened at five. It's been bet down to four in some shops. not necessarily key numbers there. I had no idea where to bet that because obviously Carolina is a better team than they showed when Bryce Young was the quarterback. I still think Cincinnati's better than 0 and 3. At the very least, their offenses, their defense was an embarrassment. I managed to get a heavy juice, but low number reception prop on Deontay Johnson.

Deontay Johnson, I got him at four and a half minus 165. I thought that number, so much juice there, but I thought the number was way too low. I actually made a prediction on Sirius XM Fantasy last week on our Friday bold prediction segment. I said he will catch eight balls this week. And he did. Andy Dalton targeting him with alacrity. In addition to that, Adam Feeling goes on IR. And let me tell you, Adam Thieland needs to blame Andy Dalton.

for that. Because if Bryce Young was the quarterback, Andy Dalton's still healthy. Because there ain't no way Bryce Young was attempting that throw that Adam feeling got injured. The old man, he had to really lay out and run for that one. He's like, dang, I haven't had to have a tight window throw. A couple years. Yeah. So he's on IR. League it, Jonathan Mingo, not exactly Kings of Ass. So I think Deontay Johnson is going to continue to get peppered with targets. The Bengals did not make one single stop last week. Not one. They will make a stop this week, but it's not going to be enough to hold Deontay Johnson under the four and a half receptions. Give me the four and a half, even with the heavy juice. Tom, I think I'd take it over five and a half at this point as well.

And you might be able to get a plus number on that. Yeah, I did see it up at five and a half earlier today. It was like plus 120. I think it's kind of bouncing between the two numbers there. So I actually think I'll probably be joining you on that one. I was going through the player props before we jumped on here, but that was one of the games I really haven't gotten a chance to really look at closely. But I know our projections, I mean, Chris has them for like 6.9 catches for like 90 yards. And our player projections are screaming that that's a value. So I'll probably be joining you on that Deontay Johnson one.

The yardage was 60 and a half I saw. Is that way? Yeah, that was about 60, 60. 61. That's too low. I'd take the over on that as well. Yeah. We saw this Bengals secondary really struggle last week. But maybe we'll see him a little bit more on the slot too for that receptions prop. Because it was Jonathan Mingo more last week with Dillon leaving early. And he was playing more of like the X last year.

So we'll see if that means a little bit more for Deonti Johnson inside. He doesn't. He's the X everywhere he's played. up in Pittsburgh and in Carolina, but maybe it gets a few more routes in the slot. So I like that prop a lot. I'll be joining you probably on one of those. If not, maybe I'll just do the receptions and the receiving yards.

I'll throw one more out there as well here before we go to Trey, whatever he's cooking up. But I'll stick with that. I know people love these same game parley. So I have the Steelers one. I also have George Pickens over his receiving yards. Just saw that one before I jumped on here. over 48 and a half.

Of course, always worried about the passing volume in the Steelers' offense, but this is lining up as a great matchup, up over 57 yards in his two non-Patrick-Sertan matchups, and even that game, he had a couple of plays called back. Certan interfered with him to prevent a big play. Big ass guy, George Pickens in the early going. He's top 10 in our average separation score so far. are giving up a lot of yardage to receivers out wide.

And everything is kind of lining up here for George Pickens to overperform here over his 48 and a half receiving yards. So that was one I really liked. I thought that was going to be more in the 53 to 55 and a half yard range. So seeing a little bit of value on that one. From what I understand, we won't have to wait too long to really find out if Trey Camberling, good friend Trey, remains the world's worst gambler. because I think he's cooking up a Thursday night special and not a Thursday night special

in the way John Hanson and you cook him up on the Sirius XM show, a very special Thursday night special. We're going to pay some bills and then good friend Trey is going to give all the money back when we come back. Okay, Trey, we've got a divisional matchup here on Thursday night football and divisional matchups are always, you know, you never know the rivals, but this is a one-sided rivalry. Dak Prescott has not lost to the New York Giants since Barack Obama was in office. Does that have anything to do with the unbelievably disgusting parlay you're cooking up for Thursday night? Tonight, actually. Good news for the folks.

I actually am not doing a parlay Thursday night. It's worse than that. Uh-oh. At first I want to start with a question. okay what's that now do you guys know why mankind bred the chihuahua no idea wait a minute do you mean like do you mean like mc Foley or like mankind at large why why we bred the chihuahua do we know why be a lap dog kind of you know why joe why it's because the lab ain't for everybody oh ha ha ha ha and I've been living in it, like always, and I am not leaving the lab, okay, until all my dogs get paid.

So I got a little Thursday night action. This is my number one personal go-to strategy when I'm trying to get right, you know. Got a couple losses on the books. I Swift only missed his yards by about 50 yards last week. So, you know. Yeah, it was close. Did you have to go to the Thursday night game because you're itching to best? on something so bad since you got no action last week they they voided your bet is that's a bunch of crap

right well the reason the reason i'm going to the thursday night game is because this strategy is a strategy that uh i like to call basically the night off okay so uh you're going to hit this bet in the first quarter or early second quarter you're going to pour a glass of bubbly and you're going to take the night off so the bet here you're going to take one unit and you're going to split it up okay we're going to have 0.4 units and that's going to return you 11.6 units. 0.4 units that would return you 5.6 units and then 0.2 units that would return 0.45 units. The first one, you can't hit all of them only because they are, I hate to say, first touchdown score bets. Oh, no.

So the first one, okay, if the giants get the ball. ball first. I actually have two for the Giants. The first one is Theo Johnson. Oh, Penn State guy. Yeah. Penn State guy, tight end. Listen, Theo's playing 84% of the snaps. He's taking 12 out of 12 snaps inside the five, 20 out of 21 snaps inside the 10, and 33 of 35 snaps inside the 20. He's got, you just need someone who's got a chance, okay, because anything can happen on these Thursday night games. And you know the narrative with the Cowboys, right? They cannot stop the run, okay? You know that, I know that, everybody knows it.

Even the guys that don't pay attention to it. But you know who knows it better than anybody else? The Cowboys, you think they're just going to go out there and say, well, gee, we can't stop the run. I guess we're just not going to stop it anymore. No, of course not. They're going to go out there. They're going to make it a focus. They're going to say, Daniel Jones, you've got to pass the ball.

And are they just going to leave Malik neighbors? wide open all the time after his two touchdown game last week. Of course not. That's why I'm going to fade Devin Singletary. I'm going to fade Malik Neighbors and we like Theo Johnson to score the first touchdowns if the Giants get the ball. I'm envisioning this in my head. It's Donovan like two yard line. Neighbors is out wide. He's got the shaded safety over there, a corner on them. They do some sort of hard play action back of the end zone. Theo Johnson. He almost scored last week. They threw him a target in the end zone last week. So he's he's he's he's a guy that they look for down there. So Theo johns what's the odds? Uh, that's going to be plus 2,800 for him.

Oh, wow. That's pretty juicy. And that's exactly how I see it. Little play action, neighbors getting some extra, uh, some extra men his way and backside opposite side of the play. Theo Johnson waving the hands. He's wide open and even Daniel Jones can't miss that one. So that's the first one if the Giants start with the ball. But, but if the Giants get the ball first. the numbers plummet, right? Like the odds plummet for him to be the first touchdown score. So this is what you have to bet right now, right? Oh, yeah, you're, you're betting this.

You got to bet it pregame. But I- Yeah, but you said if the Giants get the ball first. Yeah. Oh, he's laying out. If the Cowboys get the ball first. Yeah, of course. Oh, all right.

Well, yeah, you got to have both sides. I'm not going to send, I'm not going to send my people into the game with just one, just one team on the first touchdowns. You know, I do have another one, the insurance policy, point two units is also if the giants start with the ball. Point two units to return 4.5, 4.6 units. That's going to be the Cowboys Defensive Special Teams, okay? Plus 2,200.

This one doesn't need much for an explanation. It's Daniel Jones, okay, a little bit of analysis. Six touchdowns last year for the Cowboys' Defense Special Teams. One against Danny Dimes, week one last season. If Daniel Jones throws a pick six for the first score of the game, Who is going to be surprised? Nobody. And everyone will say, why didn't we bet this?

Of course this was going to happen. Daniel Jones sucks. So that's where I'm going on the giant. I can even see like a Micah Parsons around the end, you know, clubbing out of the pan, a little strip sack, scoop and score. Yeah, I could. They've got a great special teams too. It could just be a punt to the house, a kick return.

I mean, a lot of ways that the Cowboys could get this one done. So that is the giant side of this bet. And the Cowboys side, this one I hate to say this I hate to say this because people don't like this but it's the truth I had a premonition

I saw this I saw this happen and I think I saw the future but Jalen Tolbert first touchdown that's going to be plus 1,300 okay 76% of team snaps 100% inside the 5

100% inside the 10 and 85% of snaps inside the 12% that's second on the team behind Brandon Cooks. This touchdown, if it happens, I'm going to tell you exactly that's going to happen. The Cowboys are going to be almost to the red zone. Maybe C.D. got them down there. Not quite in the red zone.

Tolbert's going to make a catch at like maybe the seven-yard line and punch it in. Similar to if you saw Khalil Shakir's touchdown last week, catches it a little run after the catch, little sneaks on in there. That's how Jalen Tolbert is going to score this touchdown. Now, is this how you saw it in your premonition, or is it? this a you know that's how i saw on the premonition right i saw it i saw it uh it's kind it was just like calish shakere's touchdown but to the other side of the field so doc finds dac finds him it's like a like a 28 29 30 yard touchdown ish i i don't know i just i think it's not so much that i thought

of it it it's more that i received it you know it came it maybe came from the heavens i don't know where it came from but uh i i saw it happen and i think it is going to happen you know um the theo johns one actually It's kind of juicy. 28 to 1. I got it at 35. Oh, don't worry.

I bet it. I bet it. The J. La Tolver won, you know, I still think, look, I think C.D.

is going off in this game. But, of course, he has the shortest stops to score the first touchdown. I mean, I'll take C. I'll take C.D.

Lamb getting like 50 yards on the opening drive, getting them down to like the 10 yard line and Tolbert. And then Tolbert gets it in or Zik, you know, punches it in. No, I mean, the Theo Johnson won all the snaps that he's played.

You know the Cowboys. I mean, their fans are so mad, so mad about their defense right now, because that was supposed to be the strength. Oh, you know, we don't really have a number two receiver. Brandon Cooks is more of a three at this point. We have no decent running backs on this team, but our defense. That's what's going to keep us in games, and DAC and CD will do the less,

and the defense has been a disaster. But that's why I also kind of like trades for the Cowboys defense special teams, come out and make a statement. You know, you've been embarrassed two weeks in a row. Come out and make a statement against Daniel Jones, a quarterback that they have owned so far. So I'm actually really excited to watch this game because I do know if the Cowboys lose this game.

It'll be utter panic time. Oh, yeah. It'll be must watch on ESPN the next morning for all their shows. Have you seen Stephen H trolling? Oh, yeah. After all their losses. Yeah, oh, yeah. Friday morning,

be a must see TV on top of the i'm just begging i don't lose power tonight oh i know me too because i'll have to wake up early and do the friday morning yeah because like i'm rooting for your power to stay on joe helena uh is coming through um uh the coming right up the gulf and into into like john hanson's down in coastal georgia and he's not getting this storm but upstate south Carolina, Atlanta, we're about to get hammered right now. So, hey, look, everybody, what are the odds on Dolan losing power and not being able to watch this Thursday night football game? Normally, we're pretty good with that around here, but I don't know.

This is going to be the first time Hurricane Force winds or not. Have that phone charged up so maybe you can get a little LTE or something. As a matter of fact, I've got a couple. Yeah, get the battery packs old chargers. Yeah, I got to get those things charged up just so. hopefully that I can watch the game on my phone. T-Bro, good friend Trey. This has been the best bet show at the Fantasy Points podcast.

Fantasy Points Now, I hope everybody's been enjoying it. Remember, our tagline here is we're not wise, we're just guys. I think we have desperately proved that, but hopefully we're giving you a little bit of fun. And Grima, Wormtong, good friend, Trey is able to talk you into the world's worst bets. He's got a talent for this, by the way. He comes out well reasoned, well rationed, and I make the bets too. I'm on Theo Johnson. If I lose power, just make sure you tweet at me because Theo Johnson scored the first

touchdown. I'm hoping it comes true. Three bucks to win 105, baby. We're going to be rich after this one. Yeah, that'll be, I'll have to pay for a generator so I can survive the next hurricane. But for good friend, Trey and Tom Brawley, I am Joe Dolan. Thanks, everybody. Remember, we're not wise.

We're just guys.