Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Best Bets | Week 5 Gems + Extra Good Friend Trey Slop

Episode Date: October 3, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome into the Fantasy Points Best Betts podcast. I'm Tom Barrella here, joined with good friend Trey right out of the gates here. Joe Dolan, who's living down in Greenville, has been dealing with the remnants of the hurricane there. He's having some power issues still, so he's been off the grid a little bit. And so hopefully we get Joe back for next week's podcast. I've been filling in for him on the Sirius XM podcast. a morning show here the last couple of days. But how are you doing, Trey? We're pulling you out from behind the scenes here.

You're out front here for the start of the podcast. Yeah, I'm nervous. You know, Joe's, Joe, you and Joe are always trying to pay the bills. And I'm always trying to spend the money, you know. So now I'm now I've got some responsibility here. I got to get people some wins. So I'm always trying to get people the wins. But now I got to be a little more calculated.

a little more by the book. So that's what we're trying to do. So you'll have some more coin flip type of bets here instead of your usual like seven leg parlays and first touchdown bets. Or are you still going to bless us with those at the end of the podcast? I mean, I got a little mixed bag here today of everything. I'm going to, excuse me, I'm going to try to keep a, I've got a few straights, you know, just to just to keep it on the up and up.

Try to get those bills paid. But you don't have to worry, guys. I've got, as we like to call it, a little bit of slop for you later. So, you know, no sweat. It's, it's coming. All right. So, well, you got to fill in for Joe. He did a pretty good job.

Everybody at fantasy points. It was a very successful weekend. My player props went nine and two. Went two and one against the spread last week. So I think it was up around seven units of profit. Our guy, IDP guy, Justin Barnes, crushed it with his ID. Pets, Alex Pendergrass, the SGP god. The king, as Trey likes to call him, he was a cold first three weeks,

but now we're starting to check off some wins. So hopefully we'll get those into the plus column here very shortly. He's still trying to get those aggressive and those tickets, but he's got some of the basic tickets. So overall, it was a wonderful weekend over at fantasy points.com. So make sure you get over there, subscribe, and join in the fun. I'm always putting my bets in. You know, Wednesday, we record this podcast Wednesday,

and I'm starting to throw my initial bets in there Wednesday night. And all week, everybody that's part of the staff starts to put their bets in there. And then, of course, we put them up on the site. So join the fun over at Fantasy Points. And hopefully we're cooking up some more winners here. It's the Fantasy Points data is starting to get a little more robust. And I think it's really helping us, especially with like these receiver props, learning what coverage is to look for and who plays well against those coverages.

So it's been a good time over here so far. So let's get to the Thursday night game. It's Tampa Bay versus the Atlanta Falcons. This is a pretty tight spread here. Plus one and a half for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons are laying a point in a half at home. The total is sitting around 43.5, 44 points. Of course, this is a divisional match up here between the Buccaneers

and the Falcons. And Trey, you follow the Falcons pretty closely here. As a Falcons fan, I can see the pillow behind your head. And you're always rocking the red and black for the Falcons. So have any takes on this game right off the bat here from a point spread or total perspective? Yeah, I mean, you're not going to get too much homerism for me when it comes to the Falcons. I'm probably one of their biggest critics. So I'm not the type to to jump on

You know the the Falcons are going to win They're going to blah blah blah I'm usually pretty skeptical when it comes to my own team And I wanted to mention to Ryan Ryan Heath's Matchups article I think he won 11 and 1 in props last week So we're not missing right now It's it's been a great time But as far as this matchup

You know I don't I don't see Baker having as much success as he had last week I think the Falcon secondary is is pretty tough And if he does that to Jesse Bates and Justin Simmons and AJ Terrell, I will be pretty shocked personally. And the Falcons offensive line is a little bit banged up. So I think this one's a little bit of a struggle game for both teams compared to, you know, especially what we saw from the Bucks last week. So I think it's going to be a tight one, maybe possibly an ugly one. That's kind of where my head's at.

Yeah, I'm leaning towards the, towards the Buccaneers in this one, catching the point. My against the spread picks, I pick every game against the spread. Hover around 60% here. So we're doing pretty well in that column. Those are included in our staff picks that come out on Thursday nights. But yeah, I'm with you. This is one I probably will not be betting. The Falcons kind of got away with one last week.

The Saints outplayed them on both sides of the ball. But the Falcons had a couple defensive and special team scores. that really swung the game in their favor. No offensive touchdowns in that game. Offense is still kind of a work in progress here. We saw Tyler Algier start to eat into Bejohn Robinson's work a little bit more this past week. Kyle Pitts, M-I-A, you know, put his face on a Melkarton here. He's completely absent in this offense.

So are you looking at any props for this game? I know you're saying it could be a sloppy type of game. Is that leading you down a certain, certain alley for this, this game? Yeah, it definitely is. The prop that I'm going to go with is my pay the bills prop here that I feel good about. I'm going to take Bucky Irving over nine and a half attempts. That's going to be minus 108 on Fanduil. I think the Rashad White thing, the public for whatever reason is still maybe kind of high on him.

I mean, at this point, we're starting to see that Bucky Irving is definitely a player. We don't really know how good, but he can play. And Rashad White was never this insurmountable task as far as a running back to move past. He got there on volume last year, and that was awesome because Sean Tucker is an absolute zero. No disrespect. But he got there on volume, and he's never been this spectacular special player. And I don't think anybody really, I just think people maybe are confused. using his production last year with that.

He's not special. He's just another guy. And it looks like Bucky Irving is at the very least just another guy, if not more than just another guy. So I think Bucky Irving will start to take over more of the rushing work as he's done. And Breshaude White, maybe will settle into a little more of a receiving role. So, yeah, I think the over nine and a half attempts, it's a little bit thin. I think nine is in play.

It's probably going to be, if he gets over, it's probably going to be by two rushes or a rush. But yeah, I could see him just increasing the workload just a touch and if he increases I think his floor

is about nine. So yeah. Yeah, and this is a tight spread here, one and a half points. So probably, you know,

I don't know if we'll see the Falcons really race out to a big lead and kind of erase the Buccaneers passing game. The only thing I would push back

a little bit is the, the Buccaneers or second in pass rate over expectations so far this season. But this is a, Thursday night game, so maybe they're playing it a little more close to the vest on this one. I actually gave out another Tampa Bay prop. Chris Godwin over five and half receptions. It's

juiced up a little bit. I don't typically like to go with these juiced up props, but it's minus 145 at ESPN bet. The Falcons, that's one spot where they have been giving up some production, giving up the second most receptions to slot receivers so far. And we know Chris Godwin's a pretty big piece of this offense every week. My only real concern with it is Sterling Shepard could be into the lineup. Godwin still stayed in the slot for well over 70% of his routes, but I don't know, with a little bit of a time to prepare for it, does he get, does Shepard get more snaps in the slot?

But still doesn't have me too concerned here. And Godwin's been good for six plus receptions in every game so far. Yeah, I definitely saw Sterling Shepard popping on the, on the, the, prop. finder. That again, even if it's a tiny, tiny role, even if he carves out, you know, three targets a game or, or, you know, I mean, that's still going to cut into Godwin's bottom line at least a little bit. So it's not, no one here is saying that he's going to, you know, about to go nuclear or anything. But even if he just gets a couple, a couple crumbs that could still limit the Godwin upside. So it is a little bit scary. Yeah. Quite honestly, I was looking at these props for this

game quite a bit. And it's, everything kind of feels thin. I would say that I'm not like, totally over the moon on any of these props tonight. But that's why we keep looking at it. Maybe something will pop again. Check out the website. So very quickly, Darnell Mooney over three receptions parlayed with Darnell Mooney under 45 and a half yards.

And I'll tell you why. Wow. Okay. I know it's such a strange bed. That's going to be plus 232 on Fanduel with the alt receptions. You can get that on Fanduel. They've got these little gimmick routes they send Darnow Mooney on, right? And I think,

I think we all saw it in prime time last week. They just sent them in their little motion and get them, you know, behind the line of scrimmage. I mean, we all saw it. We know that they like to go to it. The bucks definitely saw it. So here's my thesis. They're going to run that play because the Falcons are too stupid to, you know, they're just going to, it worked last week. They're going to do it again.

They're going to run that play. Mooney is going to get a catch and he's going to get zero yards or a yard or negative one yards. And he's going to end his night with, I think, exactly three catches. It could be four for around 30 receiving yards. So that's the thing. thesis behind this this mini slot. The Buccaneers also blitz a lot, so that could be a

scenario where they have to get it out quick, and if he's they like to rotate their receivers, all of them play all over the field, but if he, maybe he's in the slot, a little quick dump down, the hot read a couple of times and for a short pickup, so hopefully we don't see darned Mooney, maybe you'd like it still.

You'd lose your bet, but Mooney going, you know, streaking down the field like in the first drive of the game, but. And Ray Ray McCleod just been a little too involved. So it's just, it's, it's a setup for Mooney here. And I like Mooney as a player. I think he's a very good player. But just a setup here for him to have just a little bit of a disappointing night.

But you play the receptions against the yard. You get a little bump there. And I like where that's had. I could see him getting three, four receptions and staying under that total. So sorry I had to, sorry I had to get to the slop a little early. No, no, we want some slop. That's why people are tuned in. So we got Bucky over, uh, Bucky Irving over nine and a half carries.

Chris God went over five and a half receptions. and the slot for the Thursday night game, Darnell Mooney, three plus catches and under 45 and a half receiving yards. So, all right, well, let's send it to break here, and we'll come back and talk a little bit of the Sunday and Monday games on this, a little bit of shortened slate here with biweeks kicking in. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans.

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They're going up against this Cleveland Browns team that's one and three. The markets have kind of plummeted on them a little bit here. I'm actually on the other side on this one. I kind of like the Browns. This is one of these split lines. It's one of those 3.25 lines. Depending on where you're shopping at, you can get a three with the commanders and a three and a half with the Browns depending on.

what book you go to. So maybe this is one of those, you know, I could be a winner, you know, catching the field goal and maybe you get a push. But this is one I did seriously consider with the Browns just because they've been severely adjusted down. And meanwhile, we have the commanders who have reeled off a couple of big wins here on, you know, primetime game against the Bengals. And then they go out to the desert and beat the Cardinals pretty soundly here. So both of these teams have seen. major adjustments since the beginning of the year. So what do you like the the commander's side here?

I don't blame you. I think this is going to be a very public, you know, this is going to be one of those games that's like 80% is on the tickets are on the commanders and 20% are on the Cleveland Browns this weekend. Yeah, 80% is typically not the side you probably want to be on. And I, of course, I need to say that if Tom and I are split on a bet, I don't think anybody is wondering who to side with definitely Tom does more research and knows quite a bit more has a better process. So but I go off narrative a little bit and I just go, I go off a little bit of feeling. And I mean, obviously it's not narrative and feeling. The commanders are playing unbelievable football.

Like Jane Daniels, we talked offline about kind of sticking to our priors in a good way, like not moving off of them too fast. And, you know, this book on Washington could not, you know, you could not, you know, you could not have written this book before the season. It was not plausible. It did not make sense. But now we have it. Now it's the story.

So now we're kind of adjusting to that. The same as you with Cleveland, I had thought the defense alone this season would be able to carry them, you know, to a good season, regardless of what they got from their offense. Obviously, the offense has been really bad. But with Cleveland, it's just tough.

They've played four games against what I would consider not very good teams, war-aligned bad teams. And they've won one of those. of those games against Jacksonville, I believe it was. They just are kind of falling off the face of the earth right now as far as where, you know, I kind of had them and where I thought they could be this year. So another thing we talked about, I said if, you know, Washington is 25% worse than I think they are and Cleveland is 25% better than I think they are, I still think Washington covers

the three. So that's kind of where I'm going with this game. I'm just Jane Daniels looks unbelievable. That's my thought process. Yeah, and I understand it. I mean, the commanders have certainly looked like the better team here through four weeks and the Browns have disappointed at basically every turn. Their only win is over the Jaguars who are the only winless team so far this season.

They obviously go out to Las Vegas and lose that game. A little touch of bad luck in that one. I had an 82-yard touchdown past Amari Cooper that was wiped off the board. but I've significantly taken the Cleveland Browns down from my initial power rating. I've probably adjusted them down at least three or four points since the beginning of the season. Meanwhile, I've adjusted the commanders up probably about three or four points since the beginning of the year. That just tells you how big of a golf these two teams had coming into the year. I don't know what the preseason line was, but I'm going to guess it was probably at least the Browns,

three and a half probably might have been even closer to you know a full six points or so but so this this game has basically had i would guess at least a touchdown of point point movement since the beginning of the season and even then it just feels like it's a little too much i still have these two teams pretty even right now in my own power readings i would have i would have the commander's slight favorites here uh at home giving them one and a half points for home field advantage so So it's just a, if I can get a three and a half here with the Cleveland Browns, I feel like we're getting a little bit of value. But then again, after this weekend, maybe I'm going to be tanking the Cleveland Browns in my power rankings even more. And I'll be adjusting the commanders up, you know, up into the top half of the league here, if they prove it again here against a good defense.

And that's like my one question. They've been able to push over a Bengals defense that I think we'd all agree is probably a bottom. 10 unit at best. And now the Arizona Cardinals last week as well. So I just want to see Jaden Daniels prove it a little bit. I believe me, I'm rooting for Jaden Daniels. I gave out a 14 to 1 offensive rookie of the year right around draft on the second day of the draft.

I had a friend of mine actually just asking me not too long ago, should I be betting the commanders to make the playoffs? I think they were plus 130 still. I was like, dude, you already have a Jane Daniels 14 to 1 offensive rookie of the year ticket. I mean, that's like if they make the playoffs, you're going to cash that bet. So that's where I am out in this game. But we'll see. This could be one of those where I'm really tanking the Cleveland Browns even more than I have this season.

And I got to going to have to make a significant adjustment up for the commanders. Yeah, I think this is a little bit of a, excuse me, a little bit of a cliche, but you'll know in the first two drives of the game. Like it's just like you said, nothing fundamentally has changed really about the Browns defense. And we, you know, felt pretty good about them before the season. So you'll know in the first couple drives if they're really sticking it to Jaden Daniels and he's having a tough time. It'll end up being a long day for the commanders. And I can totally see it. In fact, since I'm betting on it, it more than likely will happen.

So side with Tom on this one, guys. Honestly, this is probably one of the more interesting games of the day. I mean, it could be two teams that are going completely opposite directions, or it could be, you know, them evening out. And I'll tell you one game that isn't the most interesting game of the day, it's totaled at 35 and a half points. There's actually two games totaled at 35 and a half points. We're not going out to Denver.

That's the Raiders and the Broncos are at 35 and a half. No, we're going up to New England to check out this Dolphins Patriots game. I think Trey might be the only person actually watching this game on his, you know, I was going to say direct TV, but now it's on YouTube TV on his feed there. So who do you like in this game? I mean, neither is, I have, I do my power ratings. I have the dolphins dead last and they're tied with the New England Patriots in dead last. So which one of these teams is going to officially be in dead last in my power ratings after week five?

Yeah, it's funny you said that I'll be the only one watching because on Monday night, I was the only one watching Dolphins Titans into like the fourth quarter trying to have some DFS action there. And I bought into the Tyler Huntley big game and did not work out from him. He did get the rushing touchdown. And that actually hurt me in another league. It didn't help me in DFS. So more losses.

But yeah, I'm going with New England minus one and a half at home. They can't do anything. I mean, the, the dolphins, it's just abysmal. And, I mean, the story of that Tennessee game was, I mean, obviously, the general story is they're just bad without two. That's a general story. But if you're trying to find silver linings, the story would be that Huntley could have hit Tyreek a couple times in that game.

They could have had a little bit more offense. But then the question you asked yourself, can he do that? Is that something he is capable of doing? I'm not sure that it is. I thought, you know, it would be a nice Devon A. Chan game with Huntley running a little bit. They focus a little more on the run, but they couldn't get the run going. You know, New England hasn't looked horrible defensively this year. I mean, it's a bad spot.

New England's in a bad spot, but Miami's in a worse spot until two comes back. In my opinion, at home, I'm going to take the Patriots to win by a field goal. Maybe no touchdowns in this game. Who knows? It would just be just real slop. Yeah, I mean, maybe this is one of those games. You look at the no touchdown scored. I always start to think about those bets whenever it goes into like the third quarter,

there's no touchdowns, just like that Miami Tennessee game on Monday night. And somehow that game goes over the total. I know a lot of people were sick of it that were betting the under on that game. And they get the late safety, the whatever happened on that kickoff that resulted in a, them getting the ball inside the, was a 20 yard line or whatever. So I know a lot of underbetters in that game were very pissed off.

But I am with you on this one, though. I do, I probably been a little higher on the Patriots than I probably should have been this year. But I did have them over four and a half victories and felt pretty good after they beat the Bengals in week one. That maybe this team could be a surprise. But this, it's been a struggle here the last couple of weeks. but I could see them smell a little blood in the water on this one.

They're back home here after playing down in New York and getting their butts kicked, going out to San Francisco and getting their butts kicked by San Francisco. Now they get a home game against a division rival here who's, they're really hurting without two, a tag of Iloa. And maybe they can sense it. And the dolphins come in short week here. They've got to travel up north. And they just lost Jalen Phillips.

to another knee injury, unfortunately, after he had a serious leg injury last year. So that's always a concern here with Brissette and this offensive line. Maybe that buys him a little bit more time. I did like how the Patriots, they're starting to play Jalen Polk a little bit more. Our ass average separation score has really liked Jalen Polk here in the early going. And he just hasn't been on the field enough. And it seemed like the Patriots made a, you know, they had that.

little mini by the 10 days between the Thursday night and the Sunday night game against the 49ers. And they made a commitment to playing him more. So maybe he can make a play or two on the perimeter. It's not an easy matchup against Jalen Ramsey and the, the dolphin secondary. But I'm with you on this one. We're laying a short price. I do think there are some ones. I think you said you got out one and a half. But I think there are some ones out. Yeah, there's there's some ones out there. So we'll give you officially a one on the, for the official counting. So I'm hoping you you sweep your bets, even though I am going to go against you on the commander's one here. Any other, any other, I guess I should give out a couple of my bets here.

Yeah, I just have one more note on New England. I think there, I think that when you're watching the Thursday night game against the Jets, I don't know if you felt this way, but I, I did. That was just vintage Rogers. Like that and so, and again, was that because the Patriots are so bad? It just seemed like he could not stop making unbelievable plays. And the game was never close, obviously, but like he was just doing, you know, a lot of third downs, a lot of huge conversions. And then obviously they get beat up by the 49ers.

So I think there's a little bit of hope that they just ran into a couple of buzz saws. And the defense is going to play a little bit better against Miami. That's kind of where my head's at. And then obviously, this is, you know, 101. But when you're going up against an offense, that's just as bad as yours, you're not trying to keep up. So there's nothing to keep up with. No, there will be, there will be no keeping up. There will be whoever scores a couple times, six points, nine points, ten points,

we'll probably get the dub here. So that's, that's playing in their favor. Yeah, the Patriots, you know, that's actually, you know, that got me thinking that, you know, the one thing that they do fairly well on offense is run the ball. And that's kind of a weakness for the Dolphins defense. I picked on them a little bit with a Tony Pollard prop in that game. and so we're not expecting the dolphins to run away here and hide.

Maybe they hit a Tyreek Hill bomb or two and it forces them into a more pass-heavy script. But I think it's probably going to be pretty neutral to positive for the Patriots. So they should be able to stick to the run game. Just don't fumble the ball anymore, Romandry Stevenson. They're talking about maybe putting Gibson in,

giving him more reps. What's that? Putting him on the pine. I know. Antonio Gibson's crazy. I know. Antonio Gibson's the, like he's the notorious fumbler i mean that's that gave him they were ron overa wanted to bench him

all the time down in washington because of his fumbling issues so uh come on remandre hold on to the ball here uh no disrespect but i think gerard mayo might be a touch in over his head right now uh i think he'll get it figured out i'm sure he's a great leader great man but right now just a little bit questionable but i mean i think we give him a pass he's a young young head coach you can see that on that Thursday. You know what? We have talked way too much about this New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins. We probably bored everybody to tears.

I will say I'll give out a couple of my picks. I do have some bets. I'll focus on this London game here. That's going to be a fun one on Sunday morning. We were talking about the Jets a little bit. They got their butts handed to them a little bit on offense last week. Aaron Rogers is a little banged up this after that game. And on the injury report, he was on the McAfee show.

saying he's got a little bit of leg issues here this week. So I ended up taking the Vikings here. I hopefully this one, I am worried that maybe I am buying when it's the highest here with the Vikings and the jets are sinking in the power rankings a little bit. But this was a pick-em game going into week four. But I'm buying into the Vikings here. I think this offensive line had issues last week with the Broncos Blitz. And this is going to be a very similar formula for the Vikings in this London game. And I think the way the Aaron Jones is really running here, they should have some success against this Jets front.

So I have the Jets. The Vikings laying two and a half in this game. It looks like it could push to three here by the end of the weekend. So maybe you want to jump in on that now. It's like minus 115, minus 118, minus 120 at most books. So it looks like this is going to be one of those lines. It's like minus 2.75. It's going to bounce between two and a half and three.

So make sure you get it at 2. and a half if you're laying it with the vikings with me got a couple props in that one too so uh i got aaron jones over his rushing yards over 63 and a half i mean dang this guy is he looks like the best running back in football since the end of last season uh has hit 93 rushing yards in eight of his last nine games uh javante williams was dead absolutely dead through four weeks and through three weeks and uh was able to get to 77 yards against this jets team so looking at Aaron Jones over 63 and a half and I'm going back to the well with the conk daddy Tyler Conklin he I missed two player props last week one of them was Tyler Conklin over 22 and a half

but if you would have told me before the game that he had eight targets and four receptions I would have told you he flew over that prop bet so yeah can't be can't be discouraged by that that's a great process I'd go back I'd go back to the well also if it were me yes this is one of the I'm giving it out 22 and a half here on Wednesday and I bet by Sunday morning it's probably like 27 and a half 28 and a half so it's we're sticking to the process here we got a revenge game for him too of course he's a old Minnesota Vikings so and the the magic kind of lines up pretty good for him too he's he's seen a team best target share against pressure and we know that's that's one thing that the Vikings do very well and he's also done well against zone coverage which it was

which they run a lot of. So there's a little London treat for you there. A couple bets there. So we're going to take the break, pay the bills here. And then, I mean, Trey, he can't help himself. He's got some slop for us. You've been waiting for it. He lost so quickly last week.

Hopefully this is another like Thursday night first touchdown bet. So let's take a break and we'll come back and see what Trey has cooking up for us. Okay, we're back for the. The last segment here of the Best Bats podcast, and Trey is out of the lab here. Let's see what he has in store for us. So this one's a little bit of forecasting because these lines aren't quite out yet. But I have the players. I have the situations and I have the magic this week.

And I just have to say, I, you know, the first half of this podcast is fun. It's a great time. But it's just, it's, you know, it's real information. and it's uh it's you know you put the tie on and you and you pay the bills and i you know i'm i'm more like to go into the going to the casino and throwing the chips on the table and uh let's see what happens uh with with some crazy stuff so i have a lot of respect for what you guys do immense respect but this is a and then you then you come on here and disgrace it all with your your crazy picks at the end so this is a little more a little more my element so uh i'm going back and

And if you're a listener of this podcast, you're not going to like to hear this. But I'm going back to the 70 Club. And you know what? I'm going to say the 70 club, DeAndre Swift did have a good game last week. It's just a week late. Yeah, week late. That's typically, you know, it's better to be early than late, I guess. Maybe not.

It doesn't matter. But I got four guys in the 70 club this week. And let's just start with the grossest. He might not even be the grossest, but he's pretty gross. We get it out of the way. Mark Andrews. Really? I have to go to it

And I know it's disgusting He ran like six routes last He's got like 10 routes combined last three weeks It's so gross It's so gross. This is going to do the heavy lifting Make it a large payout He's getting the narrative this week Lamar Jackson's defending him in public

Harbaugh's defending him in the press conferences They gotta throw this guy a bone And he's too good He's too good of a player It can't be over I refuse to believe that it's over for Mark Andrews. So they have to throw him a bone this week. It's gone too far. It's gone too far. Guys too far. They're going to throw him a bone this week. We're going to get Mark

Andrews to 70 receiving yards. He's going to have a great game. You could bet that by itself and you're probably having a pretty good thing. I mean, that's going to be like 15 to 1 or 20 to I mean, maybe not that high, but it's probably going to be close to 10 to 1. The books still seem to show him some respect. I've been, I've been looking at it over the last couple of weeks. and they showed him too much respect and I didn't bet it. Thank God. They've got a little bit of money for this bet. Yes, exactly.

The next one, not crazy at all. Jaden Reed. When Christian Watson doesn't play, Jaden Reed goes him. We know this. We've been tracking that for since last year. 70 yards for Jaden Reed. He went nuclear last week.

No problems there. Yeah, that one will probably be about 150 or so. His player prop came out about 60 and a half this week. So it's gone up quite a bit. He was around 40. That was a winner. for me last week. I gave that out at 48 and a half. So his over under right now is around 60 and a

half. So that were probably about 150 to get that leg. Yeah, I had I had Reed Collins, Rishi Rice and Marvin Harrison Jr. to have 100 receiving yards last week. And Rice, you know, blew his knee out. But Harrison didn't get there, thankfully. But it looked good after the first two legs. I'll tell you that. Usually does. The next one, Amari Cooper. I know that I'm on the commanders, but if I think the commanders have a chance to kind of get ahead early and then the Browns will have to throw. You mentioned the long touchdown last week. Amari's live to get a 40 or 50 yard chunk play at any time.

And their secondary is bad. We've, you know, known that it's bad. And it's a good matchup in theory for Amari Cooper. So 70 yards for Mario Cooper. And then this one is the other one that I just thought was kind of gross. People are not going to like it. But I'm going to it. Michael Pittman 70 yards I I saw some glimpses of of some things I liked last week with Michael

pitman early in the game Anthony Richardson was going to him early and often and I think if flacco plays oh yeah he's gonna get he's gonna I mean that's gonna smash your flackle plays but I but I'm not banking on that I think Anthony Richardson will play and I think if he does he's going to look to get Michael Pittman more involved just like he did at the beginning of that game last week they They looked good. They really, when Anthony Richardson was out there, they did look good. And the Joe Flacco touchdown, he threw one pass on that drive. I mean, Anthony Richardson got them there.

So I am a big Anthony Richardson believer. So take that for what it's worth. But I like Pittman to get right. I know that's a disgusting name for a lot of you out there. He's been beating you up. But that's my 70 club. And I'm sure the odds of this are, geez. I mean, you're the expert on the odds.

You have to tell me what you're predicting. I mean, not with, I mean, the Andrew one, Andrews one alone is going to be so long. I mean, we got Andrews Cooper. The Jaden Rien is going to be like the shortest one probably. So maybe maybe we want to do like a little like a little ladder. Maybe we want to like maybe we start like a 50, you know, maybe the 50 yard milestone. And then maybe we jump up to like the 70 to get the really big payout for this one. Because I think the 50 would probably be at least like a 20 to one type of bet anyway.

So. It's true. Sorry, I'm giving you ideas. I mean, yeah, don't try to, don't try to polish the slop, okay?

We're just, just let the slop be slop, but, but no, fantastic idea. And I would encourage anybody that's listening to this if you,

if you are, you know, just in shambles and making these plays that I'm throwing out there. I mean, I'm making them, I promise I'm playing them,

but if for some reason this is a play you have to go to, add your own flavor to it. The latter, ladder it, change some numbers, do what you got to do, and I'd love to see

somebody smack, with some alterations to the slop. So definitely go for it. Okay, so this week's slop is Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper, Jaden Reed, and Michael Pittman, each to reach 70 receiving yards. I mean, the odds on that are going to be, I mean, you might not show up for the next podcast after that hits.

You'll probably be off on some island if that comes through. But maybe you want to do an alteration. Maybe we'll do it all 50. That would be much more attainable. But Trey is probably going to do the 70, and he's going to live with it. And it's going to hit all four legs. It just takes one, baby. And I will say, if you looked at a bet like this in the beginning of the season before any football I've been played, you think it's probably pretty obtainable.

It's definitely, you wouldn't be think of the odds are what they are now. So, again, that we do have a lot of great information now. So, I mean, that's what's really holding us or pushing the numbers up. But just saying a month ago, this isn't that crazy. All of a sudden now, it's very out there. You're buying low on three of the players right now. Jaden reads the only one that's kind of exceeded expectations so far. This feels like a Russ Miller kind of special here.

He, Russell Miller, he won 250K with his 40 club. He was touting it on our fantasy points discord. I mean, the man is a legend over there. another reason to join up with fantasy points and check out what's going on over in our fantasy points discord. Yeah. Any time I could be compared to Russell, I'm doing something right, but definitely I'd be careful with that because I don't think I don't think I deserve that praise.

But yeah, I mean, if it's in Russell territory, man, that's great news for me. I'm skeptical it is, but that'd be awesome. You'll be flashing that winning ticket on Sunday. probably Sunday night. Maybe that's even a Sunday afternoon. I don't know when all those games are. They might be all 1 p.m. game. So you might be able to flash that one.

I'll be in bore if it hits. You won't hear from it. You won't be able to watch the Sunday night game. You'll be already on your private jet by then. That's right. So, all right. Let's wrap it up here. We gave out our Thursday night bets,

a couple Sunday bets. And, of course, the Sunday slop from Trey Camerling here. So a good friend, Trey, I should say. I should not say your name. I mean, we want to. keep your identity under wraps here. Yeah, it's not like it's my Twitter name or anything. Yeah, it's true.

We're hoping Joe gets back for the next week's podcast. He's been without power here for basically the last week. So we'll shout out to him. Hopefully he gets back with us real soon here. So remember that we're not wise. We're just guys.