Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Betting Futures | Two-Point Stance Podcast

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

The NFL betting market changes daily. Looking at NFL futures bets like passing yards, rushing TDs, and more are aided when you have the best projections in the business to fall back on. We asked Fantasy Points betting analyst Tom Brolley to join the Two-Point Stance and give Drake and Dolan his best bets for the upcoming season. FantasyPoints.com is your home for the upcoming fantasy season. Get cheat sheets to dominate your drafts. Find DFS optimizers to set elite lineups. Crush your opponents with the all-new Fantasy Points Data Suite which gives you never before accessed statistical information. Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FantasyPTS https://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy https://twitter.com/FG_Dolan https://twitter.com/TomBrolley Need a draft board? We know you do. Go to FJFantasy.com and use code "FantasyPTS10" for 10% off your fantasy draft board order. Draft at UnderdogFantasy and get up to $100 in first-time deposit match credit with our code "FantasyPTS" --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. All across the fantasy universe, welcome in everybody to the two-point stance. Powered by Fantasypoints.com. I'm Brian Drake, your host, found on Twitter at Drake Fantasy. hanging and banging. Yes, I'm bringing that line back with my main man, Joe Dolan. You can find him at FG underscore Dolan, the managing editor of FantasyPoints.com.

Joe, we got a fun one today. We're bringing on the grinder. And I know you guys are very close. Tom Broly is going to join us. Talk to NFL futures. I'm taking notes over here because I'm excited to try to win some cache in 2023. Hey, hey, Drake, what's going on? The grinder doesn't have to grind nearly as much anymore. Tom, we tried to record this podcast last week, and Tom's old MacBook was having none of it. So the man's got an M2 right now. And we are flying T. bro.

I can't even imagine how many bets this guy's going to make this year now. Like with the new whip, we have the auction draft next week. We have a, you know, one of the things we do, Drake, is we still play fantasy football with our buddies in like $50 leagues. Like, we still do that. We love doing that. and we have the auction draft. Tom's going to be drafting from the future with that new. I'm scared of him.

I'm scared of him in the auction draft next. Yeah, I drop some big bucks, got a new Air Mac, you know, 15 inch. So like this thing is massive. It's flying. I'm going to be like an hour more productive every day, like moving forward. I'm going to have like maybe like seven more articles out a week. As you said, I'll be just pumping out the bets. So, yeah, it was time to move on to a new computer.

but I'm loving this new machine and I'm even like recording this with my own camera here on the computer and it looks as sharp as like a regular camera so yeah, big endorsement for the air books from Apple but I'm sure they'll start sponsoring the pod here in the future. Yeah, I'll get on that after the show.

Yeah, yeah, I'm sure. Once that happens, we won't even need to do the podcast anymore. We'll be retired. So, well, anyway, let's talk about how we make actual money in the betting markets this year, T, bro. Yeah, Tom, you might need to, you know, recoup some of that cash. And a great way to do that. And all of our listeners should be doing the same thing is betting NFL futures. Now, you might think to yourself, if you're new to this, what are you talking about?

What's an NFL future? How do I win these things? Basically, you're looking at some of these statistical categories in the NFL, and we're going to start with rushing. And you can place bets at your local book, where maybe. you use, you know, MGM, Seizers, whatever's not out of business yet this week. And you say, hey, you know, I want, you know, Josh Jacobs to win the rushing title. I think Patrick Mahomes is going to throw the most touchdowns. And Ben, you know, these are fun, fun bets you can make, Tom, to say all year long,

you kind of put a little money on the side. And it's just something fun to watch and say, hey, I'm watching this all year long. It's keeping your interest in the season. And who knows you can hit. got some great work here at fantasy points.com in your article where you've looked at, you know, some of the trends. You've got listed some of the favorites for this year. So we're going to go through all of it. Let's start in the Russian category where last year Josh Jacobs was plus 4,000 to win this category. Since 2015, the winner has been a top four preseason

betting favorite, except last year. And in 2000, when Kareem Hunt did it. So let's look at this category. who do you think, you know, when you're laying money down on this, Tom, are you looking at just the favorites now? Are you trying to go off the board a little bit? Who do you like? Who's a dark horse? Lay it on us. Yeah, this is a tough category right now just because of everything that's going on with running backs in the league. We have Josh Jacobs holding out right now. Jonathan Taylor, his situation's up in the air. So this is making this market a little tough to decipher at the moment. But as he said, it was a long shot last year with Josh Jacobs. I actually have. a Sequin Berkeley, even longer odds, 50 to 1. That was fun to follow for like the first half of the season.

Then he kind of hit the wall with so many touches that he had last year. But as he said, this is a market that's been kind of dominated by the leaders. And Nick Chubb is who we have at fantasy points with the most rushing yards this year. That's also who the books have as the favorite, a plus 450. and then a couple guys that you might expect behind them at Derek Henry and Jonathan Taylor at plus 650. They're right up there. But we actually have Bijon Robinson with the second most rushing guards

according to our projections. And he's 10 to 1 odds if you want to dabble with that. I saw a little bit of news out of the athletic where one of their writers was kind of breaking down the touches and everything. And they're projecting Tyler Algier for quite the, quite a big workload and might be cutting into Bijon's touches here. But yeah, I'll probably be looking more towards the top of the board for this one. I actually didn't place any bets on this one just because just because the uncertainty with the top of the board.

I kind of want to see just what happens with those guys and maybe we get a little bit more value down the board. If it looks like they're going to sit out here. I love you. You have some favorites and then you list some dark horses. And you put guys like Kenneth Walker in there because, you know, we know that Pete Carroll wants to run the football here. And Rashad Penny had a great season there a year ago. Travis E.T.N in Jacksonville.

If you had to place a long shot bet in this category, who might you pull the trigger on? I don't know. He wouldn't be considered a long shot. But the way it's shaping up for Tony Pollard right now, draft kings had him at 16 to 1 as, when I wrote this article, and he's still at 16 to 1, checking the board real quick here. So, I mean, who else is, I mean, I guess Leonard Furnett and Kareem Hunt are still out there.

But, you know, there's been a lot of talk that they don't want to, you know, get him close to 300, you know, carries. But what if it does happen and look at how explosive he is? And, you know, our fantasy points data had him, you know, 43.8% of his yardage came from explosive runs last year. So he might not even need to be a guy that gets over 300 carries. If he gets maybe just over, you know, north of 250, which is certainly possible with, you know, the running back room behind him. Ronald Jones is suspended for two games.

I know Joe's probably, you know, disappointed in that one. They got nobody behind him on that depth turts. So if I was going to place a bet on this market, and I still might, I think I would look at Tony Pollard at plus 1,600 odds. So, Drake, here's one that I, that I, I want to ask Tom about because the man returned to practice this week. He was activated off the pup list. He has that kind of bizarre hold in situation.

But watching some of the drills from J.K. Dobbins at Ravens Camp, Tom. He actually looks pretty spry. And this gets back to like the whole Jonathan Taylor kind of situation. What's going on with running backs? J.K. Dobbins very clearly has already suffered a career altering injury. And he wants to be compensated for the fact that he suffered that career altering injury in a meaningless game, by the way. But speaking of explosive players, he was one of the leaders in the NFL in

explosive runs last year. We have a new offense. Dobbins is back. I believe his odds are 35 to 1 to lead the NFL in rushing. And I don't care. Todd Monkin's there. They're going to have a different offense in Baltimore. But when Lamar Jackson is your quarterback, the run game will be a foundational part of

your offense. It always will be when Lamar Jackson is your quarterback. J.K. Dobbins is the number one running back there. behind him they have Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon Gordon couldn't hold on to the football if you stapled it to him last year. Is there a wager here, Tom, or is the injury just a little too much for you? The fact that maybe he could quote unquote quiet quit. Is that a problem for you?

It's a little bit of a problem. But these longer odds, I mean, that stuff's kind of baked into it right now. So I actually gave out J.K. Dobbins over 800 and a half rushing yards earlier this summer. That number has been knocked down just because of his little hold in here, wait, you know, trying to get another contract. So that number's even lower. I think it might be at 7.50 and a half. So naturally, I do kind of like it.

He was final four games last year. He was averaging seven yards of carry. And of course, you know, early in the year, he was battling the knee injury, had to get a cleanup surgery. So he finally started to look right towards the end of last season. I'm not intimidated at all by that, that bad. backfield. Justice Hill's, you know, just been, you know, less than a guy here to start his career. Gus Edwards is really tough for me. I don't know if he exactly fits into what the Ravens are going

to be doing on offense. They could have gotten rid of him and saved money though, Tom. Yeah, that's true. I, I just don't know how exactly he fits into things. So I kind of like your Dobbins, you know, bet here. We have, yeah, at 35 to one odds, that's, you know, it's a long shot. but we do think the Ravens are going to have one of the most explosive offenses. And this is the final year of his contract. Maybe they, you know, say screw you. We're going to run you into the ground. And if Dobbins doesn't quite quit, as you say, maybe he can, you know,

you'll push for the top of that board. All right. Let's make a quick prediction here. Everybody, give me your one guy. You're going to place a chip on for a rushing leader in the NFL this year. Joe, let's start with you. I'm not actually making this bit, but it's going to be. I think he's the best option.

So, yeah, it's good you say. You cut out there. I said Nick Chub. Gotcha. Yeah, if I, of the favorites, I would go Nick Chubb. If I'm looking for the best combination of value and somebody that I think can do it, I would go with Tony Pollard, 16-1. I'm going to go a little farther down here, a guy that almost had 1,300 yards last season for a different team.

I'm going to go Miles Sanders on an improved. Carolina team because there's not a whole lot behind him. Well, if you want to go down the board last year in the touchdown category, boy, you, yeah, plus 10,000 to get to Jamal Williams at 17 rushing touchdowns last season. That was just incredible. So that's a weird category. In the last five years, you needed 16 or 17 plus touchdowns to win this category. So with our projections, Tom, I mean, this is a category. You look at Derek Henry. You look at JT.

You know, it's kind of the who's who here. I can't see a guy like Jamal Williams, you know, doing 17 again. This seems like a category where it's one of the guys in the top three, top four of the preseason odds. Yeah, it's historically been top driven, you know, the favorites have driven this category as well until last year, Jamal Williams. That was a very unique situation. He was pretty specifically. a goal line back for last year.

And just everything kind of broke right for him. I mean, if you had Amman Ross St. Brown last year, you had to be, you know, just furious number of times. He got tackled at the one yard line just for Jamal Williams to clean things up. And that's why, hey, I put a little, I did put a little taste on this one. I did his replacement here with David Montgomery. It does feel like that they have, you know, some bigger plans than they did for Jamal Williams. going to be a little more active in all phases of the game.

But if we, I think the Lions are going to have, you know, it could be a top five offense again. I think it will probably be at least a top 10 type of offense. They were playing in a lot of shootouts last year. You know, Montgomery's been, you know, pretty good at the goal line. It's just the Bears haven't had many opportunities in his first four years. You know, I went back and looked through. He scored on 12 of his 25 tries from insompson.

inside the five yard line over the last three seasons. So he's been pretty effective down there. We all think, you know, and this is one where I kind of look at the offensive lines. I have another bet on another player. I specifically look for good offensive lines for this one because if you can get that little extra push up front that, you know, hey, you're going to, you're going to more rushing attempts from inside that two yard line where, you know, you have a higher chance of scoring. So I kind of like David Montgomery here in this Lions offense,

taking that Jamal Williams role. It's not as juicy as the plus 10,000-1 odds that he was offered at last year. I know some books didn't even have Jamal Williams on the board last year. So that's how big of a long shot he was. But of course, I was all over like Jamal Williams, like heading into the 2021 season for best ball and stuff. And I was like completely off of him last year. And he goes for 17 touchdowns.

But yeah, I would look at. maybe David Montgomery here, 30 to 1 is what I found at Caesar Sportsbook. You want a super tilting one? Of course. So what the Lions last year, of course, was like this, it was a borderline elite offense that nobody expected to be borderline elite before the year. And that created touchdown opportunities. Yes.

And I am not making this bet. But could you, what if Bill O'Brien actually gets a NFL offense out of the New England Patriots? because remember, as a rookie, Matt Mac Jones did look like an NFL quarterback. What are Zeke Elliott shots? What? Oh, boy. And I do, look, I did not move from Andre Stevenson down my board very much at all after the Zeke Elliott signing.

But there will be instances this year where Zeke Elliott cleans up the garbage and it's going to piss everybody off. I'm surprised. I just did a quick search on Draft King's leaderboard and he is not listed, which is very confusing because Ezekiel Elliott, you know, he's one of those players that attracts a lot of attention. I'm sure some, some wagers as well. So he is not listed. So that's how far off the radar he is. I guess my one pushback on that one would be, would you see Bill Belichick's defense ever being bad enough that, you know, New England's playing in all these shootouts?

Probably not. Yeah, exactly. What if he went way off the board? Remember last year, Jalen Hertz had 13 rushing touchdowns? I don't think that. This is my favorite bet on the board. What about DeAndra, not DeAndres, excuse me, what about Rashad Penny? I'm going to be a big bruising bat.

I'm going to Jalen Hertz. This is my favorite bet on the board. And I think we're getting improved odds at 13 to 1. I mean, I went through the numbers. We know the NFL, you know, the opposing teams, they were crying. Outlaw the play. Don't let them push them into the end zone. You can't do the rugby style play.

Well, stop it then. That's what you're supposed to do on defense. Stop those type of plays. So they didn't outlaw that play. Now, went back and through it here. He missed two games last year with the ankle injury. Still scored 13 rushing touchdowns. You add in, like, the three playoff games.

He scored 18 rushing touchdowns. So he scored more touchdowns than Jamal Williams did if you kind of, you know, you look at it from, I guess not. That would have been over 18 games. But still, pretty impressive. And then if you go back and look through the last two years, he's second in rushing touchdowns. So that play is unstoppable for for the Eagles in those short yardage situations

where they do that little rugby scrum. They're not afraid to call it from anywhere. Two, three yards out. Yeah, yeah. That's what the athletic did a study. This was actually a Super Bowl prop that I, that was the easiest prop that I hit last year was if the Eagles would convert a fourth down conversion in the in the Super Bowl.

And it was opened it plus odds. and the athletic did a study last year. They converted 29 of 32, 91% of their QB sneaks. And that's defined as two yards or less to convert. It was the best of any team this millennium. So, I mean, it's an automatic play. And we have so much uncertainty in that backfield. What has been all the talk out of Eagles camp in the first preseason game?

Nobody knows what the hell's going on in that backfield. We got Gainwell getting a lot of first team reps, Rashad Penny's playing, Boston Scott's sitting. Nobody knows what's going on with that backfield. So why not look to Jalen Hertz, you know, convert all those short touchdowns?

And if we take, you know, what if he just gets three or four of those 11-mile Sanders touchdowns, add those to his total? I mean, Jalen Hertz is certainly in the mix to lead this. So 13 to 1 odds. you know, it's better than the guys at the top. Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chub, those guys are all list ahead of him. But I think Hertz should be, you know, right behind Derek Henry in this category.

All right. So you're taking Jalen Hertz. Joe, who do you got for our touchdown leader this year? So, Russia, it's got to be a guy from a good offense. It's got to be a guy who, it's got to be a good offensive line. I mean, I agree kind of with Tom. I think Jalen Hertz is the best bet on the board. Let's go with Austin Echler.

Hey, I mean, I mean, he's been knocking on the door the last couple of years. He got beat out by Jonathan Taylor two years ago. I mean, Taylor had that ridiculous. I think he had 18 touchdowns two years ago to knock Echler off. And Echler was right there last year too. So I kind of like that one. He's currently 14 to 1 odds. So a little bit better odds than if you're betting Jalen hurts.

I'm going to take it plus two. thousand. We've got a projection of eight touchdown forums. Give me New York Giants running back Saquan Barkley on an ascending offense. It's not hard for Barclay to break a 70-yard touchdown run. If this team just gets close to the end zone, I think

that Barclay could have a really good year. All right, let's go over to the passing category where last year Patty Mahomes won that category and the winner has gone over 5,000 yards for the last five years. But Tom, favorites rarely win this. We have to go back to Drew

Breeze in 2016. Who do you like in this passing yards category? I have a, you know, I'm looking at a dark horse here. This is really kind of off the board a little bit. Just looking for a little value and an offense that I think could surprise if it gets off the ground early. And they have the easiest schedule in the NFL, easiest schedule. Derek Carr, 35 to 1. I know. I know. You're thinking, Derek Carr. What the hell is Brawley talking about? Just think about two years ago before dipshit Josh McDaniels came in there when he was playing with under Gruden. He was right there, right there for the league lead, 4,800 passing yards.

Then McDaniels comes in, just tears everything down. It's just a complete debacle there. Saints still paid him $100 million, so they still think he can play. What are all, I mean, the reports out of camp, you know, Chris Olavé was a star as a rookie. Michael Thomas is, you know, staying hell. healthy here so far. We all loved Rashid Shaheed as an undrafted free agent at the end of last year, was making big plays all over the field. Jawan Johnson has been an absolute star in training camp.

They bring in Foster Morrow, Jimmy Graham. I mean, this passing game is kind of loaded and easiest schedule in the NFL. And the other thing I kind of liked about this one, they play 13 games on turf, indoors. You know, they're not playing out in the elements. That's kind of, That's what's tough for guys like Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, you know, those games late in the season where, you know, you get some windy conditions or maybe some snowy conditions, you know, tougher conditions to throw the ball in. Not going to be an issue for Derek Carr. So if I'm looking down the board, it's probably going to be a Patrick Mahomes.

I kind of like Justin Herbert, if you're looking at the very top of the board, if we really think Kellan Moore's offense is going to take off, he's plus 650. He was knocking on the door last year. But if we're looking for a longer shot here, I think Derek Carr probably should be closer to to 20 or 25 to 1 in this category. I'm going to pick Justin Herbert. I know it's not a wow pick. Like, oh, man, look at this sneaky play.

But if you look through the first two games before he really got injured in that Sunday night against Kansas City, guy had 600 yards and six touchdowns in just those two games alone. Now we're going to be moving the ball farther down the field, hopefully, you know, with this upgraded offense, you add in Quentin Johnson to the mix. I love Justin Herbert as a fantasy quarterback, and I love him to help me win some money on this bet this year. What about you, Joe?

Who are you going to take in this? Well, you have to look at, so if I'm going down the board, you want to look at guys who have depressed odds for reasons outside of football, right? Or actual on-field production. And two of those are Matthew Stafford and Tua Tonga Vailoa. I think Tua at 22 to 1, Tom, somewhere in the 20 range. He's discounted because obviously of the concussions, but who has a better one-two punch at wide receiver than Tua?

It's just as good as that at Philadelphia. You know, it's just as good as that at Cincinnati. And then obviously Philadelphia, Jalen Hertz, isn't going to be projected towards the top of this board because of how important the run game is for them. But Cincinnati, I mean, Joe Burroughs plus 900 a lead in passing yards. And Tua is plus 2,200. So I think two is a decent bet.

And have Joe Burrow's odds come down at all since the injury? No, they've stayed kind of flat. And the books aren't worried about Joe Burrow. That's all fantasy players. Nobody in the sports book, you know, the community there is worried about Joe Burrow for the week one. Which tells you that fantasy players shouldn't be worried about it. Yeah, exactly. It's been kind of overblown.

Fantasy players tend to overblow a lot of stuff. You know, they see a cart come out into the field. but I know that's one of your biggest pet peeve, Joe. Cart comes out in the field and a guy goes off. But, yeah, Burroughs still, you know, right there, right behind Justin Herbert as a third favorite. I will say add to your two, he averaged 286 yards, 287 yards per game last year in the 12 contest

where he played 72% of the snaps or more. Got to be in that, like, 300 range. So he was certainly knocking on that door if that offense takes another step in year two. under Mike McDaniel, certainly potential there. But it all comes down to the health there with Tua's concussion history in last year. But I like that one a lot. Stafford is another one, 287 yards per game two years ago when he was able to stay healthy

and they made their run to the Super Bowl. The thing about Stafford is their defense is, it's appalling how bad their defense is. But also, Stafford doesn't have the receivers to a hat. So you have to, by the way, Van J. I talked about this with you, Drake. I think Van Jefferson is poised for a breakout this year. But if Cooper, if Cooper Cup gets hurt again, there's no way Stafford leads the league in passing, even if he plays 17 games.

Yeah, I was going to say that's if Stafford stays healthy behind that offensive line. A lot of question marks in Los Angeles. But if everything plays out and they, you know, Cup and Stafford somehow stay healthy for 17 games, that defense is going to stink. So they could be playing a lot of shootouts this year. In the passing touchdown category, Patrick Mahomes double dipped. He won this also with 41 touchdown passes last year. And we always talk about, hey, it's a passing league.

No one will ever scoff at 41 touchdowns. But this number has actually come down three straight years from 2020 when Aaron Rogers through 48 and then Tommy Brady with 43 and then Mahomes with 41. So for the six years, we have data on this, because, they've only started really betting this for the last six years. So in that time, we've had only two guys in the top 10 of the preseason odds, Tom, win this award. You know, Rogers came from 11th, a few years ago. Lamar in 2019 was 34th coming into the season.

So, you know, the last few years, I think they're kind of fine-tuning things as they've, you know, finally been offering odds on this. But, I mean, this is a category. I look to the top of the board with, you know, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Josh Allen. I mean, I don't see any of those other guys outside of our projections, even coming close to that 35 plus number. Yeah, one guy I did find Trevor Lawrence was offered 40 to 1. Let me find. That's at bit MGM.

I think, you know, we have him projected for 33 touchdowns. And, you know, we're a little bit ahead of market on that. I want John, John Hanson, who does our projections, is, you know, pumping him up a little bit extra this summer for good reasons from what we saw at the end of last year. You know, and the reason I kind of like this one is, you know, we get Calvin Ridley in the mix now. That receiving core is, you know, could be potentially loaded if Calvin Ridley is as good as everything that we're hearing out of training camp. Travis Eton was a disaster at the goal line last year. We still think that offensive line is going to stink. So it's going to make it difficult, you know, for rushing touchdowns when they get inside the five-yard line.

We also think their defense isn't very good still. It's probably, you know, it's not terrible, but it's bottom half of the league. So could be playing in more shootouts. So I think Trevor Lawrence at 41 odds. And we've, he's a first round, you know, first overall. picked just a couple of years ago, you know, stumbled out of the gates with Urban Meyer. But his career has certainly started to descend, especially with the playoff victory last year where they come back from, what was it, 27 points down in the first, in the first half

against the Chargers. So, and just looking at, you know, just the game logs, you know, he threw for three plus touchdowns in five and 19 games last year. I mean, that's essentially what you got to do. you have to have these ceiling performances for fantasy where you're throwing for three touchdown passes or more. And he showed that in five of his 19 games last year. So we had Calvin Ridley into that mix. Maybe he has a chance to do it this year.

I think they'll be better out of the gates. He was, you know, slow in his first year under Doug Peterson, the first eight or nine weeks. But things started to take off in the second half a year. So Lawrence at his depressed odds, I think, are worth a small bet. What about you, Joe? You know, are you going anywhere else besides Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert? I think maybe the best value on the board is Deshaun Watson at 40 to 1. I mean, I think they've got, they're hyping up Elijah Moore to High Hell.

David and Joku had a little bit of a breakout season last year. I wonder if their defense will be a little bit too good for that with Miles Garrett and company. Gino Smith at 30 to 1 also is interesting to me. They increased their receiving weaponry, with Jackson Smith and Jigba. I don't think their defense is going to be great. So those two stand out to me as a little bit down the board for me. Yeah, I'd like that, you know, he was, you know, multiple touchdown passes.

And, you know, he was only behind Patrick Mahomes in terms of two plus touchdown pass games. So, and Kenneth Walker, talking about guys that were struggling at the goal line last year, Kenneth Walker was another one. So, yeah, Gino, I mean, we'll see if Gino can maintain that high level play. he he tailed off a little bit at the end of last year, but certainly, I mean, those weapons, those three receivers could be as good as anybody in the league this year if Jackson Smith and Digba lives up to the hype as the top rookie wide receiver. I might put a couple of dollars on Dak Prescott at plus 1,600.

You look at his weapons with C.D. Lamb, with Brandon Cooks, a healthy Michael Gallup down there. Just two years ago, he threw 37 touchdown passes. in 16 games. So with this offense, you know, trying to get over that hump, Mike McCarthy maybe on the hot seat. I can see Dak kind of returning to that form. What we hopefully don't see is Dak, well, I'm an Eagles fan, so I kind of do. But for fantasy, he led the NFL in interceptions last year. And that's a category you could also bet on Tom. And, you know, 15 interceptions last year. That's not really what we're looking for. Sometimes this goes to a younger quarterback just kind of coming in, feeling things out. They're going to start every game.

You know, I kind of like the lean of looking at guys like maybe a Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson. If these guys are going to play every game, they're going to throw a bazillion interceptions. Those are two the guys, I bet. I bet on Bryce Young. Those are 20 to one on C.J. Stroud and 30 to one on Bryce Young. That's the, that's the big thing with the interceptions category. You got to be available. That's the number one battle. And that's what makes Dax 15 interceptions last year even more just shocking because he was unavailable for five games. He only played in 12 games last year.

So even Davis Mills sat out of a couple of games. But you typically, that's why in the article, I put in the attempts as well with this one, just because you've got to have a guy that's probably going to throw at least over 500 pass attempts, and most likely closer to 600. So, but I like both CJ Stroud. We saw first preseason game, some early struggles with the interception there. And Bryce Young has been a little turnover happy in preseason reports, a training

camp reports. You know, there was four straight practices early in camp where he threw interceptions. And, you know, our draft guide from Brett Whitefield, his biggest concern was that, you know, Bryce Young had a slow trigger coming out of Alabama. Everybody was running wide open, and he had so much time behind Alabama's offensive lines. So not going to have that same luxury here in the NFL, then Carolina's receivers are more on the iffy side. So I like both of those guys at long odds. They both got to stay on the field.

And it seems like Stroud, Stroud's the one kind of remaining question mark if he's going to start week one. But, I mean, all indications are that, you know, he's started the pre-season. season games. He's been taking most of the first team reps. So it looks like he's going to be a week one starter as well with Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. All right, Dolan, who's throwing the most picks this year? Stroud. Team stinks. The receivers aren't great. I didn't love him as a prospect, quite frankly. So I think it's Stroud. Yeah, that's my bet. All right. Let's move over to our final category. It's receiving. So last year, Justin Jefferson was the favorite in receiving guards. And he, you know, wire to wire and he won it.

A great year for Justin Jefferson over 1,800 yards receiving, just a phenomenal year for him. Now, in this category, four times this decade, the favorite has won. So if you look at our fantasy points projections, Tom, we've got Justin Jefferson at a little over 1,500 yards, Jamar Chase, 2, Cooper Cup 3. Where are you leaning in the receiving yards category? Yeah, so I couldn't really get to the, get to the window on this one. I didn't, I didn't end up betting anybody in this category. I still might come back around to it, but I think it's going to be one of these leaders.

And, you know, one of the favorites, you know, a Jefferson or a Chase is it plus 600, Cooper Cups at plus 800, Tyree Kill plus 900. If I had to, had to guess, it would probably be, you know, one of these guys at the top of the board. but if I'm looking a little farther down the board, you know, Christian Watson, 50 to 1 odds, Calvin Ridley, 50 to 1 odds. The problem with Watson is I think, you know, the Packers are going to be pretty run heavy this year with Thornt Love taking over. You have two really good backs, probably one of the better offensive lines if they can stay

healthy. So that kind of scared me away from placing a bet there. And Calvin Ridley, that's one I might actually consider again if the odds still stay there at 50 to 1, but he also has a lot of competition for targets. Christian Kirk has been a top first five rounds in fantasy drafts. He's a top 50, you know, fringe top 50 pick. Zay Jones had a couple blow-up games last year. Evan Ingram's there.

So a lot of competition for Calvin Ridley, but those are two of the longer shots that I considered at 50 to 1. But if I, you know, gun to my head, I would say it's probably going to be one of these favorites at the top of the board. Most likely Jefferson I would go with. How about you, Joe? What do you think? I mean, I'm not putting a wager on this. The thing is, if there was one guy who has longer than 10 to 1 odds, it might be Stefan Diggs.

He's very clearly his team's number one. You know, I look at guys like Jalen Waddle and Devonte Smith and say, oh, there's value there because they're considered the number two on their own teams. But the problem is those teams, I think, are going to spread the ball around a little bit too much for one of those guys to lead the NFL. And of course, the Eagles, the past game is not the foundation of what they do. So I think Stefan Diggs is probably the wager down the board that I would take here. If the Bill's offense can improve, that offensive line can improve, he might be the one to bet at 21.

I don't know how Cooper Cup doesn't win this category. I mean, he's going to get 38 targets a game. If he gets hurt. Yeah, that's, I guess the concern there is the injuries. But that's baked into it here. why he's probably a little bit lower on the board at 8 to 1. Two years ago, Cooper Cup led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 16. Last year, it was our pal Devante Adams out there in the desert with 14.

So this is a category again. We're projecting Jamar Chase at fantasy points with 13 touchdowns. He's only, you know, 4 to 1. You're not getting great money there if you're betting it. Travis Kelsey plus 500. So it's all the names you know here. And boy, if I like this AJ Brown. I'm just hearing great stuff out of camp with those two.

So it's either, I'm either going to lay my money on AJ Brown or if I'm picking Dick Prescott to throw the most touchdowns or whatever I picked in the league, wouldn't it also reckon that CD Lamb is going to catch a majority of those? So if I'm going to place one bet, I might as well place the other. What do you think, Tom? So I went with Justin Jefferson. He was 15 to 1 at the time. It's been bet down to, I believe, 12 to 1.

I, you know, what I used for this one, you know, just pumping up our fantasy data, fantasy points data site, you know, Scott Barrett's XFP is really good for this category. So I really dug into that stat. And Justin Jefferson, you know, based on the number of targets and where he saw targets last year, he was right there with Jamar Chase in terms of XFP touchdown production. So he was projected. He should have been closer to 12 touchdowns. He finished with eight touchdowns last year. So I thought that was a lot of value. We know Justin Jefferson. I mean, if he plays 17 games,

we'll just lock him in for 180 targets. So if I can get a guy that's going to see that many targets at 15 to 1, now 12 to 1 at most books. I still like that projection here. He hasn't been the best down at the goal line, but, you know, T.J. Hawkinson's gone. They traded him midseason. Adam Thielen.

that was like the only thing he could really do the last year. Just a touchdown vulture, take his touchdown production out. Dalvin Cook's even gone, a guy that was, you know, pretty efficient down there as well. So maybe we get a few more opportunities for Justin Jefferson, the score. So that was one I really liked. I still really like it at 12 to 1. And D.K. Metcalf was another, you know, outlier. I mean, he saw, you know, 22 end zone targets last year.

Only converted six of them. But we get an extra year with Gino Smith and DK working together. Maybe, you know, maybe that turns into a few more touchdowns on those looks. He was another guy. He had 12, so. Yeah. Yeah, that's exactly. Yeah, you look at his first couple of years with Russell Wilson.

And he was right there among, you know, the top, you know, the leaders in receiving touchdowns. So down last year, but 22 end zone targets tells you it's kind of shock. that he only scored six rushing, receiving touchdowns last year. So he's another guy, 25 to 1 odds. More competition there in Seattle. That's certainly baked into the price. But I love that one. He's huge.

And he can score close to the goal line, 6-4, 235 pounds, throw him those jump balls. And he can also beat you deep. He can score from 50 yards away. So he can beat you in a couple of different ways. So I like the Metcalf, 25 to 1 as well. only three players scored double-digit receiving touchdowns as wide receivers last year. Adams, Steph Diggs, and AJ Brown.

So, I mean, it really is up for grabs. You know, somebody just pops off. You never know someone has a three touchdown game one week and it really shoots them up the board. What do you think, Joe, if you got to put a dollar on one of these players to be the touchdown leading receiver in the NFL in 2023? It'll be Mark Andrews if I had to put a dollar on somebody. Look, they're improved at wide receiver, no doubt. But you can also take a very glass, half-empty approach to their wide receiver room. Odell Beckham hasn't been good in years, is coming off an injury.

Rashad Bateman's never been healthy in the NFL and Day Flowers as a rookie. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews is in an offense now where the Todd Monkin, the offensive coordinator, had the best tight end in college football last year, Brock Bowers. And you'll be hearing a lot about him if you don't follow college football in the draft cycle this year because he's going to be a top 15 NFL draft pick. He's 60 to 1 to leave the NFL in touchdown receptions. I think the Ravens offense is going to be better. I just think there's way too much value there.

Yeah, we just saw, and we went through the passing leaders. Lamar Jackson was a passing touchdown leader just a few years ago. So he's capable of doing it. We'll see if he can get it done. But I like that one at 61 as well. How about just overall receptions? So this is a category where it could be a tight end. You know, Travis Kelsey could sneak in there.

You just talked Mark Andrews. Justin Jefferson had 128 last year himself. Tom, if you're laying some cash on overall receptions, how's that market looking? Yeah, this one I had a little success. I had Cooper Cup two years ago as a longer shot, won that one. So I've had a little success in this one. When Amon Raw St. Brown, it was 20 to 1 at the time. I think he's down to 18 to 1 at most books now, maybe even lower than that.

Yeah, he's 18 to 1 at Draft Kings right now. Still like that one. Had 1006 catches last year. He missed a game for an ankle injury and basically ran 16 routes in the two games right after he missed. So he basically just throw three games out and he still had 106 receptions last year. We know Jared Goff, I mean, just pepper slot receivers. He's a, you know, one of these taller QBs just throws it right over the top to his slot receiver. in the middle, middle of the field.

He sees that, you know, that's just an area of the field where he's very comfortable throwing. It's Jameson Williams, suspended six games. Who the hell's playing? Who's the second receiver for the Detroit Lions this year? Jamir Gibbs probably out of the gate. So I love this bet for Amon Ross St. Brown. We think the lines are going to be improved a little bit defensively, but probably playing in a lot of shootouts again.

So, yeah, everything's kind of lining up for him at 18 to 1. I kind of like that one. And a real, this is a complete dart throw, but somebody I think could catch a lot of passes and has in the past, 80 to 1. Marquise Brown for the Arizona Cardinals. We think they're going to suck. We know that.

But that also could come with some garbage time production. No DeAndre Hopkins this year. You know, just looking back at old data, he was at a 25% target share for the Ravens back in 2021. had the fifth most catches last year before he got hurt. He was at 43 catches through six weeks. Of course, that was with Kyler Murray. But, you know, he's going to be the clear number one wide receiver.

I think Colt McCoy's capable of getting him the ball. He has to do that for four to six weeks. So however long, Kyleor Murray is going to sit out. So we're just, you know, looking real far down the board. Marquise Brown hasn't been a very sexy pick in fantasy drafts as a late fifth, early six-round pick, but I think he could rack up a lot of catches this year. So if we're throwing a dart here, 80 to 1, Hollywood Brown.

How about you, Joe? Who's winning the most receptions? I don't think there's a better bet on the board than Tom's endorsement of Obama and Ross St. Brown. I just think that one makes too much sense. Their defense, I think, is going to be better, but it's not going to be great. There's no other receiver.

on this team capable. By the way, James and Williams, we're recording this on Wednesday. Went down with a hamstring injury, it appears, in practice today. That guy's been an absolute train wreck so far in his NFL career. But he's, I mean, look, it's probably not going to cost some time anyway because he's missing the first six games of the season regardless. So I think Amon Rae St. Brown's the best bet on the board. I like that. Very, very interesting here. My Cooper Cup love will have to just endure here because I posted a video about him saying he would lead the league in in targets. So I'm going to say leads the league in receptions too. I mean, I can't argue. I mean, if you guarantee 17 games, I think that's the best bet on

the board is Cooper Cup, you know, plus five to one to win to lead the league in reception. So I agree with you there. If we could get any kind of guarantee that he's going to stay on the field. But that that's the concern. If you guys like what you're hearing here, make sure you're following Tom on Twitter at Tom Broley. He's got articles up at fantasy points.com. you can go see all of his future bets. He does a great job. It's almost weekly time. You're posting some betting information.

You're also updating the training camp and preseason logs. So if anything breaks in the NFL, you can go read that nightly. It's a great resource for fantasy players. Really appreciate you joining us here today, Tommy. Thanks for having me on. I'd love to do it anytime. So maybe we'll catch up again soon. All right.

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PTS10. I'll save you 10% off your order this month using code fantasy. PTS. at FJFantasy.com. All right, Joe, that's going to wrap it up here. I think you've got some grass to mow and some titles to defend in different drafts. Oh, I have a busy day. Got to mow the lawn, got to do the flex draft, and then I got to interview Austin Eckler.

So that's a busy day for Dolan. By the way, I'm on Ross St. Brown got dinged up in practice. Oh, geez. Good timing on that one. Yeah, I just, I mean, it looks like he's stall on the sidelines, but just throwing that out there. Plenty a time to get healthy. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to see OAR and the Goo Goo Goo Dolls with my wife and kids.

So I'm going to have Goodgo dolls are fine. O-A-R. Not. Oh, I love O-A-R. Kids love them. We took him to Philly last year. It was a crazy game. Oh, yeah.

It's a good time. I'll have some overpriced beverages and I'll text her from the show. But everybody, enjoy your day out there. Make sure you're over there at FantasyPoint.com. Follow us on Twitter at FantasyPTS. We'll see you next time for the two points dance. Thanks for tuning. into this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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