Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Betting Strategy and Plays with Mark DeRosa

Episode Date: September 2, 2021

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) sits down with Mark DeRosa (@EdTeach23) talk about NFL betting strategy ahead of 2021 kickoff. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. I'm your host for this lovely evening, morning, whenever you're listening. listening to this. I'm Scott Barrett going solo, flying solo, but joined by a close personal friend. Mark DeRosa goes by Ed Teach on Twitter at Ed Teach 23. He is, to my knowledge, I think probably the most profitable NFL better over the past three to five seasons. You know, maybe he's not,

but to my knowledge he is. And he's a close friend, really grateful to get him on the show. Mark, how's it going? Doing good, man. How are you? I'm good. So let's just dive in right away, straight away, to some of the best bets you've made over the past few seasons.

I'll start with one I was almost on. And that was the Rams. Patriots Super Bowl. I tweeted out. I said, you know, I think whatever the odds were, a team to get shut out in the Super Bowl, do you remember those odds? Was it like 10,000 a one? To get shut out? Yeah. I don't remember the bet that we placed was for them to support. Well, hold on, don't spoil it. Do you remember, do you remember? I would have to look up an old Google document to find out what those odds were. But yeah, it was probably, you know, in the 500 to 1 to maybe 5,000 to 1 odds, it was up there. Yeah, I think it was like a lot of times the books

will not write tickets in the over 1,000 to 1 odds just because like the payout is just so humongous. It was it was a thousand to 5,000 to 1 odds. And I bet it on the draftings app, which of course, they cap you out at like a $20 bet as the max you can do. So I bet that and I tweeted out that you should bet that my followers should bet that. And I get absolutely trashed for it. People are calling me an idiot. And so I deleted that tweet. I never delete tweets. I deleted that tweet. And lo and behold, you know, I think it was a shutout at the half and or damn near close. And I was like, oh man, I wish I didn't delete that tweet. And then inevitably, the Rams kicked two field goals, but you only score six points.

Your bet and your conviction was far better than that. What was your bet and how much money did you win? Okay. So let me just backtrack a little bit. You had some very complimentary things to say to open up in the introduction. I just want to say there's people who are a lot smarter than me and people who make a lot more money than me. But the last few years has been a good run. So moving forward to what your question was, what did we bet?

So we bet on the Rams to score exactly three points. And I generally bet those every year on the Super Bowl, and they never, ever hit. You know, you're looking for those extreme outcomes that have ridiculously high odds. And most of the time or just about every year, you're just throwing money in the garbage. but that game was pretty much the greatest game of my life, really. I was probably the most money I had made in a single day. We had put together a Super Bowl portfolio of prop bets on the game that were heavily shaded towards the unders.

And a lot of it was based off of the defensive coordinators being Wade Phillips and Bill Belichick. But that bet specifically, it was 400 to 1 for the Rams. to score exactly three. And, you know, it got shared on Twitter. This was actually before I was even on Twitter. It got shared and kind of circulated around on ESPN. The one that was shared a lot was $250 to win $100,000.

But we had also bet it at MGM as well. So how much in total did you win and what were some of the other bets you made? I think for that specific bet, we cashed about $200,000. thousand, I want to say. And then we had a lot of other bets like, you know, the Rams quarterback. We had the Rams to not score a touchdown in the game at like 40 to one odds. Just everybody to go under. We had Sony and Michelle to score the first touchdown. We had Sony and Michelle to score the last touchdown. And it just so happened that and we had him to score a touchdown. So when he scored the only touchdown in the game, all three of those cached. And, you know, it was just everything that

could have gone right, went right, and we pretty much won, like, 90% of the bets that we had on the game. So it was pretty incredible. Well, extremely sharp bet. Yeah, I said the kick two field goals. No, no, no, no. Final score 13-3, they kick that one field goal in the third quarter. So the best part about that game was, I don't know if you remember, but they lined up for like a meaningless field goal at the end with Zerline. It was a long. I'm sitting there watching the game, with my wife and my kids. And I'm going, oh, I know he's going to, I know he's going to make this and screw me. I know he's going to make this, you know.

And sure enough, the kick goes wide left, I think. And I'm running around, jumping up and down. You know, I usually watch the games in complete silence. And my kids were pretty young at the time, you know, and they were like, what's wrong with dad? You know, why did dad lose his mind? So, yeah, that was, it was nice. But we also had them to score six, but just not for as much.

So we were a winner either way. But yeah. Another good bet I made was, I think, two Super Bowls before that. James White to win MVP. And then I had 100% exposure in DFS against Atlanta, just because every single year, Dan Quinn was head coach of the Falcons. He gave up the most receptions to running backs of any team and by a landslide. And we know Belich,

knows how to exploit the main vulnerability of a defense, and that's always been the primary vulnerability of a Dan Quinn defense. But of course, you know, you're going to give that to the quarterback, especially with the come from behind performance he had. But, you know, I have these almost hits to latch onto. You have quite the resume. And we'll get to the next one, which was another one I was on as well. So 2019, I said Lamar Jackson was the single greatest value in fantasy drafts at any position by a landslide. I had damn near 100% exposure. I bet him to win MVP.

And I bet him to win MVP every single month of the offseason. Again, I did it through the Draft Kings app, which means they cap me at $20. every single time I bet it. You, I think, went in person to Vegas and bet significantly more than that. You were on Lamar Jackson to win MVP. How much money did you win? How much did you bet? And what was your reasoning behind that call?

So I bet a little over $3,000 to win $300,000, roughly. And at way better odds than I had, too, right? Do you remember the odds? What odds did you have? 80 to 1. Yeah. My total position was roughly right. It was like 90 to 1 roughly.

I had some tickets at 66 to 1 and I had some tickets at 125 to 1. I had some 80 to 1. So yeah, I flew up to Atlantic City in May of that year. And it was my first trip up there. And I saw 66 to 1 at Draft Kings and I was like, man, that's a really good bet. And so, you know, I bet like 500 on it there. And then I went to the Borgata, which is an MGM book. And they had 80 to 1.

one. And I asked for a thousand and I'm used to getting rejected on stuff like this and they gave it to me no problem. I came back the next day and the odds were still the same. So I slipped in another like $500 bet. And I was pretty happy with my position. But then in July, I flew out to Las Vegas. And lo and behold, I found 100 to 1. I found 125 to 1. And then I found another 100 to 1. And so I just couldn't help myself. I just kept on betting it. And so I built up a position roughly 3,000 to win 300 or a little bit under. And, you know, I just, I liked, I liked Lamar's situation. You know, he's a first round pick.

He struggled his rookie year. They really didn't even try to throw the ball. You know, when they brought him in, they, he was working with a different offensive coordinator that was for Joe Flacco, basically. And once the season ended, you know, they brought in a new offensive. of coordinator that was going to cater to his strengths. And, you know, it's a good organization, a good team. I just felt like they were really going all in on him from an organizational standpoint.

And that if he did anything with throwing the football, given them how much he runs the ball, that, you know, he would be in the running. I didn't think that he was actually going to dominate the MVP. Yeah, you said he struggled in 2018. and he definitely, you know, wasn't super efficient, but the team still went six and one in his regular season starts that year. And you brought up the new offensive coordinator, tailoring the offense to Lamar Jackson's specific strengths.

And Greg Roman specifically had a ridiculous history with mobile quarterbacks, a lot of success. These are all things I brought up in my article. and I talk about an anatomy of a league winner, how important it is to look at things like that, new offensive coordinators brought in, things of that nature. So that was just a really sharp bet. Happy to hear it, it won you a lot of money. So that was definitely exciting.

And we became friends over this Lamar Jackson bet just because I don't know anyone who was as high on him as I was. And you might have been even higher, certainly with the position. and you threw down, you could say you were. So we became friends. And we started talking last offseason. And you said to me, I think Tom Brady is going to leave New England.

And I was like, ah, you know, that seems like a stretch. Then you said, I think Tom Brady is going to Tampa Bay. And I was like, you know what, that is kind of interesting. Just because immediately after week 17, Bruce Ariens starts trashing James Winston. It really makes it clear that they are not going after him. You made some other amazing points.

And of course, all throughout this time, you were hammering Tom Brady to go to Tampa Bay vets. You are hammering Tampa Bay to go to the NFC championship game. You are hammering Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl. So you want to talk a little bit about your reasoning here. total position and how much you won. By the way, I wish I followed this bet. I did not for the listeners at home, but I definitely should have. I think I fought you, by the way. I think I thought you every step of the way. I think I wanted to bet Green Bay and I think I wanted to bet Kansas City.

So let's talk about this bet a little bit. Sure. So you never wavered again for the listeners. Sorry, go on. So it really started the year prior when the report came out about a rift between Kraft, Belichick, and Brady. And they basically said that they were going through a divorce, you know, irreconcilable differences. And I thought that was interesting. Heading into that season, I guess that would be the 2019 season, you know, Brady put his house on the market. I guess there in Boston for like, you know, $8 million or however much it was worth. And he did that before the season even started.

And that kind of struck me as important because, you know, it takes a long time to sell luxury real estate, especially in that price bracket, because there's just not a lot of people out there who can afford to buy it. And so if you were planning to leave somewhere, you would want to have time to sell your house because it may sit on the market for a while. So that was a big one. But then the other big thing was, you know, for the first time in his career, he was a free agent. And Brady had had basically bent over backwards and reworked his contracts for the prior 10 to 15 years to give the Patriots cap space and do everything he could to be, you know, a part of the organization and a good team player.

And for the first time ever, he was allowed to get out of his contract. And I thought that that was really significant. So, you know, I was like 75% sure that he was leaving New England. The market had him returning to New England at like minus 300, which is basically saying there was a 75% chance that he would return to New England. So because the difference in that was so large, there was a lot of value on all the teams that he could possibly go to. And Tampa was the first one that struck me mainly because they had all the offensive

weapons. They had an offensive head coach. They were tired of James. James was coming off a season where he threw 30 interceptions. And like you said, they just, Bruce Ariens threw him under the bus the last three weeks of the season, and especially at the end of the season. And then he openly said, you know, I want Tom Brady when it was suggested to him. So to me, it was kind of like, this is pretty obvious. You know, this is a good situation for him. And people wanted to say, oh, there's no way he's going to go to Tampa because Tampa's never had a, haven't been in the playoffs in 15 years and they're a losing organization, yada, yada, yada, yada,

none of that matters. None of that matters. It's only what's the organization, what is their stance now? How are they doing now? What is their history under the current GM? So all that stuff was just both, you know, BS. So, yeah, what did I do? The morning after the Super Bowl that year, I was in Atlantic City and I was cashing some tickets in the draft Kings book, and I saw they had a prop that they had just put up on which team Tom Brady would play for that year. And they had the bucks listed at 50 to one odds. And so my limit was like $500. So I walked up to the counter.

I bet $500 to win $25,000. I waited a few minutes. They moved the odds down to $40 to $1 on Tampa. And so I bet the $40 to $1 also. And, you know, they moved it to $25 to $1 after that. And I figured, you know what, I'm just not going to push my luck to $1. too much. So I flew home. And the more that I thought about it, the more I said, you know, if I'm so dead certain that Brady's going to go to Tampa, then I need to start betting on Tampa.

And at that point, the markets were not really mature in that, you know, not all sportsbooks had odds to win the division. Not all sports books had odds to win the conference. They might just have Super Bowl odds up. So I kind of hung around for a couple weeks, waiting to make another a couple trips. And, you know, when the time came when the market had matured, I, you know, flew up to New Jersey again and flew out to Las Vegas and made a lot of bets on the bucks to win the division, which actually lost, to win the NFC and to win the Super Bowl. Yeah. So I was a lot higher on Tom Brady than most last year, a lot higher on Ronald Jones than most last year pre-Lennard Fernette. And that was entirely due to you. It's just, hey, this guy's

really smart. He's making really good points. But one other point with Tom Brady and why we should have expected a rebound was, okay, he looked like trash in the second half of the 2019 season, but he was hurt. And like no one, everyone ignored that. So through the first nine weeks of the 2019 all right. So prior to the 2019 season, Brady had ranked fifth, first, first and second in PFF grade. and then through the first nine weeks of the 2019 season, he ranked sixth. He ranked 10th in fantasy points per game. But throughout the remainder of the season, he ranked 18th in PFF grade, 14.7 fantasy points per game,

dead last in yards per attempt. And so you could say the second half drop-off is due to a 42-year-old player in decline. You could say, hey, you know, Julian Edelman was hurt. Every receiver was hurt, and that surely played a role. but Mike Giardy told us in December that he was dealing with a pretty serious elbow injury, tennis elbow, and that injury lingered much longer and was far more serious than initially reported. We know Belichick is very tight-lipped historically with injuries, plays a lot of games with the injury

report. And so I thought no one was really factoring that in. And yeah, I mean, he looked like peak prime. Tom Brady last year. So what are you doing when you're flying out to New Jersey in Las Vegas? Are you just carrying duffel bags of cash? How does that work? And can you talk a little bit about the sweat? Like what an unreal sweat this was. And like I said, I was like, I think Green Bay is going to win. I think Kansas City is going to win. And you were just, no, Tampa Bay. I want to bet them again. So you want to talk a little bit about your conviction as well.

Yeah, so generally I do not carry duffel bags of cash. I think that's a bad idea. You know, when you make a bet in a legalized sports book. All right. So for the listeners at home, don't mug Ed, if you see him in Newark Airport. Yeah, yeah, don't mug me, please. Generally, the sports books, when you make a bet and legalized sports book give you a ticket. It's basically a receipt for your bet. Tells you what you bet on, how much you bet and how much you stand to win. And a lot of times it has a player's card on it. And those tickets are good for usually up to a year. You can exchange them for a voucher in some places that's basically the same thing and it's good for a year. So it's a lot easier to travel with vouchers and tickets, winning tickets or whatnot. And, you know, if anybody tries to steal them from me, you know, it's got my player's card number on them. So when you go to try to cash that ticket in, you're going to get arrested. So I like to stick with, you know, just using basically betting off of the credit of the paper receipt.

So yeah. As far as the sweat, I'll say this. I have been down this road so many times throughout the years and not cashed. I was the guy who had the Jaguars in 2017, 40 to 1 to win the AFC,

80 to 1 to win the Super Bowl for just as big of a score. And they were up 10 in the fourth quarter in New England, and they blew that game. And so I've been down this road before you ask yourself, you know, should you hedge, should you not? And to me, this wasn't really a situation where I wanted to hedge because A, I felt like I had the best of it. B, it was life-altering money, but it wasn't like, it wasn't, I can't pay my bills money. You know what I mean? It was,

if this hits, then it's great. But if it loses, it's, oh well. I didn't need to lock in a profit. And the other thing is, is that it takes a lot of cash to tie up. You didn't hedge at all, correct? Well, I wouldn't say that. I got a little creative. So before the playoff started, I bet the Saints to win the NFC. I forget what odds I had because I was pretty high on the Saints. So that's a bit of a hedge because they were kind of in a position to run into the Buccaneers should the Buccaneers win the Wild Card. I bet the Redskins plus 10 and a half in the wild card game. And that was a situation. essentially taking a middle position where you have, you know, the Buccaneers to win because you have that Buccaneers futures bet. So that's basically Buccaneers money line. And then I bet plus 10 and a half on the Redskint or the football team because the market was at nine and a half at that point. So I was getting a free point. So I felt like it was good value and it was a positive hedge bet. So, but no, when it got to Green Bay and when it got to the Super Bowl, there was no way

I was going to hedge. Man, that's amazing. I really admire your conviction there. Mark, are there any other big bets you want to talk about that you've made during your hot streak, whether the one or lost? You know, I've had a little bit of success with the most passing yards the last two years. I had Jamis in 2019 as I have the most passing yards at like 25 to 1. And last year I hit on Deshawn Watson.

at 75 to 1, and I can't believe that number was there. And then last year, one of my favorite bets, and it was just a purely speculative narrative bet was Alex Smith to win comeback player of the year. I bet that at like 16 to 1. So I bet like 3,000 to win 48. And that was the only player that I bet in that market. And I just felt like the story on this guy is so good. If he just plays one snap, he could possibly win this award.

And I also felt like there wasn't any good competition for comeback player of the year in that particular year. So he wouldn't have much competition. If he just played one snap coming back from that horrific leg injury and almost dying, basically, that he would really have a chance. Yeah. When he came back and actually started meaningful games, I was like, name the award after him. This is unreal. But you told me about that bet super, super early on. I'm in Texas now, so I can't bet.

legally. But I told my buddies about it. I think I had a friend or two who ended up tailing that bet. Yeah. So you really stick to props, things like comeback player of the year, you know, Super Bowl or most passing yards. Why is it you go that route? And do you bet money lines over unders or do you really shy away from that? In season, I do bet. I do bet. I do bet. I, a lot of stuff on a week-to-week basis that in season, I do bet. That's the last thing I heard. So you want to start from that. Sure.

So in season, I do bet a lot on a week-to-week basis. And I do bet into some more general markets. You know, I will play some points spread. I'll play some totals, some money lines. I like to bet a lot of teasers. But I mainly bet this type of stuff because it's, it's a good bet. And I enjoy, I enjoy the thought process that goes into determining what is a good bet. And a lot of these more narrative bets are not like a numbers crunching. You don't have to be

a genius or have a statistics degree or be an Ivy League grad to figure them out. So that's, you know, it's up my alley more or less. Yeah. So we've talked about this before and you said, you know, you do run projections, but it's very, very, very simplistic. And I noticed, too, when talking to you, you make a lot of really good logical points, but they're fairly simplistic. You're, you know, you're not digging deep into advanced metrics, EPA per pass attempt or anything like that. So do you want to talk a little bit about your projection system and how you think that there is a strong edge and just thinking about things sort of, out of the box, but fairly simplistically.

Yeah, so I don't really use any kind of a projection system for any kind of season long futures or props. I used to think that I could predict season wins and like odds to win division better than the market. And I think I may still have a decent edge, but not what I thought it was. There's so many moving parts. You can't just like program it, program the season into a computer and say, all right, the dolphins are going to win 8.1 games and that's just it.

you know, there's just so much dynamic uncertainty to the season, especially when you have a game that involves, you know, 22 different players starting in positions and especially where the one position of quarterback is basically 50% of the team's success. So, yeah, as far as- Is that what you've calculated it to be? No, I'm just eyeballing that and making an approximation, but, you know, it's somewhere in that range. Yeah, I definitely think. that's right. I've said the quarterback position in terms of value is broken to the degree that the seeker position is so valuable in quidditch, where it's just like the only position that really matters. And so you're trying to factor at factor in what would a trade for Deshawn Watson be worth.

And it's like, well, what was what was Aaron Donaldworth? He's the best, you know, defensive player in football, you know, ignoring the actual value that the defendant. offensive tackle position brings, you know, the greatest player in football right now. But because quarterback is so valuable, it's like, what do you do? Do you double what, you know, Aaron Donald or, you know, some of these crazy trades we've seen for defenders? Was there another point you wanted to make? As far as like a week-to-week props, simulating games and stuff, I basically just use the market

to determine the prices for my betting. I basically just use the existing point spread in total to kind of filter down from there. And yeah, that's pretty much it. It's kind of a complicated formula that's kind of surprising for somebody who has no background in statistics or no advanced math degree. But it's something I've developed over the course of like seven years and tweak it a little bit every offseason and continue to win. So, but I normally don't really post a lot about that kind of stuff.

So in investing, you know, you hear the, the all-time greatest investors, Warren Buffett, Seth Clarman, Charlie Munger talk about the importance of being a contrarian. Like that's where all your profits lie is, you know, going against the herd. And the herd gets it wrong a surprisingly large amount of time. And just from talking to you, you are naturally. a contrarian. You are naturally very confident. And being, you know, the lone sheep in the herd doesn't seem to intimidate you at all. In fact, maybe even it makes you that much more confident in your conviction. So where did that come from? Is that just, you know, in your DNA? And is that something

you look for? And, and, you know, what is it, what is that like? Because, you know, that's got to feel, scary at times. Like, am I an idiot or is everyone else the idiot? And a lot of times it's everyone else. Yeah. So I've been doing this for like 15 or 17, probably like 17 years. And I've got a long track record of winning. So I'm confident in what I'm able to do. And I've able to see, I've also been able to see how markets react. I'll give you an example like, you know, 12 years ago, there was a sports book on the internet, maybe 15 years ago. And they would post props for every game during NBA season. And they would put both sides at minus 115 and open the odds up. And by game time, it never failed. The favorite would be minus 160 and the, I'm sorry, the over would be minus 160

and the under would be plus 130 on every single one of those props. And I knew nothing about basketball, but I would bet every single one of those unders. And every night I was making thousands of dollars. And it's mainly because the public was taking a position, a very public position, a very pro player position, and I was just fading them. And I feel like with futures betting, it's kind of the same thing. The public expects that whatever happened the previous season is going to happen again. And if you don't believe conventional wisdom, then you're an idiot. And, you know, I'm going to, I'll say some things later on some stuff that I bet for this season and you're going to think, man, that guy's a moron. How could he possibly want to bet that?

But a lot of times it has to do with what the payoff is. You know, if the odds are a certain amount, yeah, it may lose 99% of the time. And, you know, and you're going to be right in calling me a moron 99% of the time. But that 1% if it pays out and it's successful. that one percent of the time and I've got a huge payout, then, you know, it's a plus expected value bet. Yeah. And for our fantasy listeners at home, when I talk to the top DFS players, I'm friends with a guy

I won't name who's a genius who works in Wall Street, like legitimate genius. And he says the entirety of his edge is doing that, basically. It's being wrong 99% of the time. but the 0.1% of the time he's right. He is so right. Like he he, it pays off in such a big way that it more than offsets the 99% of the time. And he thinks, you know, one of the things working against me is, is not necessarily, you know, my knowledge base. It's just, you know, playing, making stupid plays that would make me look bad and then hurt my reputation in the industry. And he is fearless. And he doesn't care how he looks. And that really pays off in the long run. So that's something.

I've been keeping in mind for GPPs this year is not, is to not be afraid to look foolish and to not be afraid to go against the herd. And I think that is where the immense profits lie. So you said you've been doing this for 17 years. I only know a little bit about your background in the industry. I think you started making bets that were almost like guaranteed to win. Like wasn't really, you know, digging into, you know, oh, I think. think this is going to happen and then this. It was just sort of marketing efficiencies. So when you talk about how you got your start in the industry, what you were doing, I know you worked closely with Rufus. So why don't you just talk a little bit about that?

Sure. I'll try to keep this quick because it's been a long 17 years. But I used to, I went to school at Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. And I used to play poker with a guy who was a roommate. It was a roommate of a friend of mine. And he was just kind of a strange character, an interesting guy. He was making money on the internet at that time, betting on sports. And he would basically do something called arbitrage betting, where you are betting on both sides of an event.

So let's say the dolphins are playing the bills. You can get even money on the dolphins, and then you can get plus 110 on the bills. you know, you bet a little bit on both to lock in a profit that's guaranteed. But he was bending over these places online. They were offering like, you know, 20, 30 percent sign up bonuses on top of it. So, you know, not only was he guaranteeing profits, but he was cashing it on their bonuses as well. And, you know, this guy, he never went to class. He never really showed much interest in school.

But he was making tons of money. And we were like 20, 21 years old. So he kind of recruited me to do. some blackjack projects that he was doing. He trained me to be a card counter. And we made a few trips to Las Vegas, Atlantic City when we were 21, 22, Tunica, Mississippi. The heat on card counting got to be to where you don't ever want to play it again because they're looking for young white guys to throw out because those are the only people who

have an interest in playing the game in that manner. So I pretty much wised up and stopped doing anything with that along. time ago. But at the same time, you were able to bet on the internet. A lot of these places were giving you sign-up bonuses to play blackjack, where if you deposited 500, you got 500, and you only had to play through it like 10 times to get your money out. So you could expect to take out like $400 or $450 of their money, depending on the terms. And a lot of the places had actual software that would play perfect basic strategy for you. And you wouldn't even have to do anything. It would play the game for you. So at one point, we bought a bunch of computers and

rent in an office and we think we had like 14 different computers. And we would set up everything on a Friday night and then click all 14 buttons, click go. And then we go out to the bar and come back at 2 o'clock in the morning and see how much money we had made. And it got to the point where we were doing that so much that in the online casino's terms and conditions, it said, you know, we don't accept players from Uzbekistan, Armenia, and North Carolina, you know. So we did that for a number of years and then got into sports betting. My friend was a really talented NASCAR better. He was very much into the sport.

And it was one of those sports where if you know, if you have more knowledge of the sport than the sportsbook does, you're going to have a huge advantage. And so he and one of my other partners were, alternating trips back and forth to Las Vegas, living out of a suitcase for a few weeks at a time, jumping hotels. I moved out in 2007 and been shortly after kind of everybody followed me. And before you knew it, we had like five, we had a core group of three, but a group of six or seven guys all from Appalachian State who were living in Las Vegas. And so, yeah, we, we bet a lot of small market stuff in Las Vegas. We were doing a lot of NASCAR, a lot of golf, a lot of proposition

bets across all different sports. I ran into Rufus, who's probably the most, one of the most popular or known sports betters out there. Rufus P. Body. Yeah, Rufus P. Body. I ran into him on a couple different occasions, and I kind of had an attitude of who does this kid think he is. because he was always walking around with a laptop. And so I had seen him around town a few times. And then one day he followed me out of the palms. And he followed me to the end of the parking lot to the point where I almost maced him. And we had a quick conversation.

And he asked me if I was betting for a living. And he seemed pretty harmless. And so I told him, yeah. And he was working for a consulting company that actually created the lines for Las Vegas. It was called Las Vegas sports consultants. And he told me that he had just got a job there and that he had an economics degree from Yale and that he had written a thesis paper on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. And so I had a meeting with him.

I had dinner with him and one of my other partners. And we decided to hire him away from that company and come work for us full time. We basically guaranteed him the same salary and gave him a free role percentage. so there was no risk to him on the bets that we were making. And we bought him like a $3,000 computer. That was part of the terms. He wanted a new computer. So, yeah, we worked for three or four years together

until I moved back to Florida in my home state of Florida in 2013. So we're still good friends today. That's awesome. What was it like living in Vegas in your early 20s? It was not as glamorous as you would think because I was in a serious relationship. I was like the first one to get engaged. I was the first one to get married. I was the first one to have kids. And we were all very serious about what we were doing when we lived there. There was not a lot of partying, you know. So honestly, it was kind of living out there and having to work on the strip every day and see drunk happy people, you know,

partying and having a good time while you're, you know, walking 10 miles in the 110 degree heat. It wasn't fun. But it was a good experience. It was a good life experience. Yeah, I only went once for a Bachelor party. It was a very surreal experience where we were all messed up the entire time. I kept saying, I think this place is literally hell because it's like 115 degrees. Every interaction I had was like Kafkaesque.

We almost got mugged. There's this weird guy who I think this is the devil. You know, Sin City. It was just so really bizarre time. So not a big fan of Vegas, though. I know I have a ton of friends who are. But let's talk about what everyone wants to hear. And that is, what are some of the big bets you've made this offseason that you feel really good about?

Okay. So one of my favorite bets this year involves the New Orleans Saints. and it's a little, you know, I don't know what kind of effect this hurricane is going to have that happened last week or, you know, a couple days ago. I'm hoping for the best. So I bet a lot on James Winston bets this year. I bet him to win comeback player of the year. That was my favorite bet. That was 20 to 1 to 33 to 1 odds.

I bet him to have the most passing touchdowns, 60 to 1 to 200. to one. Most passing yard, 60 to 1 to 200 to 1. MVP, 66 to 1 to 100 to 1. And basically, I think the bookies, when they put these bets up back in April and May, assumed that Taysam Hill was going to be the starter because he had signed a four-year, $140 million contract. But that contract, if you read between the lines, was really kind of a joke. It was basically like a one year $10 million deal and all the rest of the contract is voidable after this year. So I felt like it was a kind of a prove it deal for him. And then, you know, they brought back James on another one year deal, I believe.

And I felt like they were going to have a true competition. And if they had a true competition that James would probably went out because he was actually a quarterback. And the talent difference between the two of them is just immense. I mean, James is a former number one overall pick. Nobody's ever denied his talent. He's still physically in his prime. I felt like he's been undervalued because, you know, him and Bruce Ariens did not get along.

They tried to kind of fit a round peg into a square hole or whatever the saying is. And, you know, I felt like Bruce Ariens was kind of uncompromising. And he basically told James to sink or swim in Tampa Bay. So in New Orleans, I think that Sean Payton's more likely to be a better coach in that he will cater to a player's strengths. And I think that he's been forced to do that for the last few years with Drew Breeze. Because anybody who's watched Drew B's, Drew Brees the last few years knows that the guy doesn't have any arm strength left. I mean, he can still be extremely accurate in the short range, but the offense had become incredibly predictable and reliance on, you know, two players. really, and that was Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.

So, you know, I kind of had this outside the box thought that, man, if James is the starter, the Saints could actually be better because he has the talent and he has the ability and the coach is willing to cater to his abilities. And he has a skill set that Breeze has not had. So, you know, I would not be surprised to see the Saints have a great offense, a great offense this year. And to see him win some of these awards, I really think the comeback player of the year award is really the best value because he's got a good narrative. And, you know, there's a lot of competition this year. I think that Dak Prescott is rightfully the favorite to win.

but when I was betting it, it was 33 to 1 and then it was 20 to 1. Now it's 10 to 1. I still feel like it has a little bit of value. I also bet the Saints to win over 9 games at like plus 120 odds, and I bet them 20 to 1 to win the NFC. So that's one of my big positions this year. Yeah, maybe this is the Mark DeRosa influence, but I argued essentially this in one of my articles,

for a fantasy perspective. So Winston ranked seventh and fantasy points per start in 2019, 10th and 2018. And I don't think it's hard to imagine a hyper-aggressive Winston isn't going to be able to find success in this offense and then maybe even be an improvement on a somewhat noodle arm, Drew Breeze, maybe the most accurate quarterback of all time, but certainly, you know, diminished arm velocity, arm strength,

you know, no deep ball. We saw a Teddy Bridgewater rank as the QB12 across the five games he started in 2019. And Breeze was no slouch from a fantasy perspective. And in fact, people are underrating it to a significant degree. If you just exclude two games, Breeze exit early due to injury, he would have finished 13th, second, and seventh in fantasy points for game over the past three seasons. So, you know, if Winston could even improve on that, you know, you're talking about a men's value for a player who's still going undrafted in the majority of leagues, at the very least a very, very cheap QB2. Winston holds a soft spot in my heart just because I heavily bet him to lead the league

and interceptions in 2019. But one thing to worry about with Winston, because I do think this competition was a little bit closer than you seem to think it is. And that's that prior to their week six-by, they have far and away the toughest strength of schedule by schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. You know, that's not the same thing from an NFL perspective,

but from a fantasy perspective, at least, there's typically a lot of overlap. It's very difficult. But then after the buy, it's the softest strength of schedule. So, you know, he could be thrown into the fire, you know, multiple interceptions and, you know, all right, we're sick of this. Let's see Taysam Hill in there. It's not working with Michael Thomas out.

So that should favor the guy who brings that added dimension on the ground. You said you were a little worried about, you know, the hurricane losing that home field advantage. Is that something, how important is that to you? And do you think that's more significant than losing Michael Thomas for five, potentially, you know, nine games? Yeah. So, you know, Michael Thomas is only. important to he only dominated in the short game so if that's not really your game plan for the season I mean of course he's going to be part of the game plan but I don't ever see him being as important

to the Saints offense in me he may not even play there next year but um if even if he stays on the next five years I don't ever see him having the same importance to the offense as he's had over the last few years um as far as the hurricane goes you know I don't think it's as bad as Katrina. From what I've heard, you know, there's obviously flooding, but there's not, you know, mass casualties. And, you know, the Superdome seems to have, you know, escaped, you know, the tremendous damage that it had back in 2006. You know, these are professional players. They're used to having to go on the road.

So, you know, if you lose a little bit of home field advantage, you know, it's, you know, It's a loss, but it's not everything. So as far as James goes with the Taysom Hill, yeah, I think he's got a short hook this year. The Taysom Hill thing scares me a little bit. The Michael Thomas injury scares me a little bit. But the upside to the bets was just so large in my opinion that it was worth placing a wager. Definitely a very sharp bet.

what are some other bets you've made this offseason? What's a bet that you like a lot, but you think the listeners will clown on you for? All right. That's a good one. This one's great. You'll probably be going to clown on me as well. These are the best bets, always, always. Urban Meyer coach of the year.

Hey. So this is something I've significantly struggled with. Like I don't know if he's a fake sharp or not. He certainly seems like a fake sharp to me. But at the same time, maybe he's playing coy. Maybe he's, you know, just looking dumb, but is really, really sharp. I talked to a high-level source, who I won't name, but one of the highest sources you can go beneath Adam Schefter, let's say.

And I asked him about Travis Etienne. And I was like, Urban Meyer saying, it's a committee backfield. What do you think? He said, urban Meyer, I don't think is a really good person. In fact, I think he's a liar, but I think he's sharp as hell. And so I think Travis Etienne will be the Belcal at some point this season. This is very early on, maybe immediately after he was drafted. And I thought it was interesting. And you look at his track record, and his track record is undeniable in terms of taking over a team that, you know, was sub 500 and then bringing it all the way to a major bowl game, undeniable track record. So I wonder how much of him is just playing

coy, playing dumb, is really sharp. You know, maybe the offense that we saw in preseason that didn't look great, you know, maybe he was just, hey, I don't want to give too much away. This is an irrelevant game. So I'm going to, I'm going to, you know, keep my real game. plan my real usage for these players a little closer to the vest and i mean trevor lawrence this is supposedly the greatest quarterback since you know john elway dan merino andrew luck perhaps and so yeah you could definitely you could definitely see you make that case and i i i'm not going to clown it clown on you for it do you want to just make your pitch a little bit unless i just made it for you so i'll clown on myself a little bit i think

think that all of the news this offseason when it comes to urban mire has been like a total disaster i mean he hired the one coach that had some diversity issues or whatnot um you know he had a fake competition between Trevor lawrence and uh minchu he cost him a lot of first team reps uh all the way through the entire training camp from preseason you know he signed tim tibo um i have a bet on tibo under one and a half touchdown receptions this year so i'm hoping that that's the end of the road for him. I said, I said he's, there's going to be a case of COVID where every tight end is enacted. The sign, the sign, they get Tim Tebow back in the team in a meaningless week 17 game and he scores a touchdown. And then they're going to do a Rudy

remake starring Tim Tebow. That was my take. God, I hope not. And then just piling on Urban Meyer a little bit more. Then we have to do a reddy remake. Then, had like yesterday or today's news where he's like, oh yeah, vaccination status definitely factored into our cuts decisions. And now you have like the Jaguars having to run PR coverage on him, you know, putting out statements that they're being investigated. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, he's not really been too impressive in a lot of ways. But what he does have going for him, now I'll try to sell it to everybody. They only won one game last year. And if you look at like a Pythagorean and Win Total. They should have won around five. They had, they started Jake Luton for

three games, who was a sixth round pick that I think they just traded or cut. I think they're making that name up. Jake Luton, yeah. They started Mike Lennon for five games and Mike Lennon was never, you know, an effective or even average starter and hasn't been relevant in three years. But they started him for five games rather than start Gardner, Minshu, who is capable, maybe average or slightly below average, still has room to grow. He's still a young guy. So they were actively tanking last year, and that kind of downplays the true talent of the team. You know, if you're a casual fan, you look at the 1 and 15 record from last year,

you know, that's what you really think is reality. But in reality, the talent on the team was a 5, 6, 7 win team. So that's what we're working at, working with. Now they've drafted Trevor Lawrence, who, like you said, is. pretty much the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. What happens if he's good this year? Andrew Luck took the Colts to the playoffs in his first year after they had the number one pick. So could that happen this year?

It could because they play in a really weak division. Jacksonville's division is terrible. Houston is blatantly tanking this season. It's undeniable. when you go out and sign like 50-something free agents to like veterans minimum deals, you're just trying to fill out a roster to get through a season. And that's what they did. Their season win totals four.

As far as the Colts go, their season looks like it could potentially be a disaster tank fest as well. You know, if Wince is not healthy, they're going to be starting whoever their backup is. I can't even remember his name. their opening schedule weeks zero through six is like the hardest in the league so if wince is injured or not 100 percent and they start the year oh and five or oh and six they have a front office that's smart enough to say this is a lost cause we're going to tank the season so you have two teams that could be utter disasters in that division and then you have tennessee which is not a very deep team either Tennessee is basically ryan tannihel and derrick

Henry. Yeah, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. But if Tannahill goes down with an injury, that team is totally screwed. Derek Henry is completely game script dependent. They have to be out to a lead for him to have any kind of effectiveness. So, you know, I can see a scenario where Jacksonville actually wins that division. You know, they also have a last place schedule this year. So, you know, if they win the division with a nine and eight record coming from a one-win season, he could absolutely win coach of the year and not really deserve it. But, you know, I got 33 to 1. I got 35 to 1. I bet a little bit of 25 to 1. I put a big position down on this. And, you know, I'm going to look like a complete idiot or I'm going to win a lot of money. So we'll see what happens.

Yeah, I absolutely love it. I think that's a, a great point, well argued. Again, I love how these bets and the best bets you can make are often bets you can make a priori. You know, you're not really digging too deep into any stats. You did mention Pythagorean, whatever. Yeah, thank you. But you could really just, you know, it's sort of not to diminish your arguments, which I thought were great, but it's sort of like what you can hear from a guy sitting next to you on a bar stool at a bar somewhere.

And it's like, hey, those really are typically the best bets you can make. Yeah, the Texans are going to be the worst team in the league. David Cully, Dan Campbell, to me, or just like typical fall guy scapegoat hires. They're just trying to get, you know, a top three pick this year and next year. And then they'll usher in a more competent head coach. What are some of the other bets you've been making? Let's see. Do you want controversial or do you want something that you're probably going to agree with?

Give me one at each and then we can close out the show. All right. Let's start with controversial. I like the Raiders this year. That's what I was hoping for. I like this one. Yeah. So I think that the Raiders could be due for a big leap forward.

And to use the word do is not really correct. Let me just say they've had a lot of, I think they might be due for some turnover regression, some positive turnover regression. Looking at last year, their team had 24 offensive fumbles and they lost 14 of them. The median total fumbles per team is 19 last year. So they had five more offensive fumbles than the league median. And they were expected to lose, you know, 9 of 19, roughly, nine or 10 out of the 19 fumbles. And so they lost 14 out of 24.

So if their fumbles number comes down and they experience some fumble, some more appropriate fumble luck, it's going to go in their favor. Carr fumbled 11 times last year. He didn't recover any of them. Defensively, they only forced 10 fumbles when 19's the median. they only recovered five. So basically in a nutshell, on offense, they fumbled more than they should have and had a really poor recovery rate. And defensively, they didn't force many fumbles.

And, you know, they only had 10 when the medium was 19. As far as interceptions go, they only forced 10 when the league medium was 12. Based on the past attempts that they faced, I would have them at like 12.6. they had a really poor sack numbers despite having average pressure percentage and knockdown percentage. They had a quarterback knockdown on nine and a half percent of the plays when the average was about nine and a half percent. They got quarterback pressure on 23 and a half percent when the average was 23.6. They only recorded 21 sacks when the league average was 35. So, you know, they severely underperformed in sacks.

They severely underperformed in fumbles, and they underperform slightly in interceptions. So, you know, that doesn't necessarily mean that they're due to correct, but normally there's some regression involved, and you'll see that kind of go back towards the mean. But I like what they did with their off-season moves. It seems like they kind of figure out, you know, look. The offense is not the problem. The defense is. We need to bring in, you know, get rid of this defensive coordinator, bring in a new guy. They brought in Yonik and Gokwe.

Four of their seven free agent signings were defensive linemen. I think the car is an above average quarterback. I think he probably is a top 10 quarterback. He's had a good sack rate, low interception rate. I don't think the offense is the problem. I found an interesting that they cut John Brown. That shows that there's progress with, rugs and Brian Edwards. So yeah, I bet I got a terrible number. I bet 14 to 1 division when these

numbers came out. And now you can get like 20 to 1. I think that's a great bet. Even better, I bet 120 to 1 for them to win to get the number 1 seed in the AFC. That basically implies that there's less than a 1% chance of them getting the number 1 seed. And, you know, I like playing bets like this more than I like playing, like, to win the Super Bowl or the conference because they don't have to beat quality opponents in a must-win situation to win the number one seed. They just have to stack a bunch of wins. They can get really, really lucky and, you know, win the division, win the number one seed. So those were two my favorite bets that probably people will disagree with. So I like your argument.

And this was definitely a more statistics-based argument. You talk about regression based on pressure percentage versus sack percentage. And I think that's a great way to look at things. That's a great stat to look at. I understand turnovers are of massive importance to you. Before, when you've told me about bets you've liked, you've always referenced turnovers and turnover regression. So I'm sure that's an important stat.

add to you. I'll let you dive a little bit deeper on that if you'd like because I have heard you referenced that many times. Last year, for instance, for reference, you had a lot of bets on the Chargers overperforming. And my counter argument was very simplistic. And it's basically the same counter argument I'd make against the Raiders. Although, yeah, you only had one past catching option last year that was Darren Waller. He's still with the team. Brian Edwards was a non-factor, but apparently he's looking like the next Terrell Owens. And you'll have a healthy Henry Ruggs to at least stretch the defense, even if his numbers aren't eye-popping the slightest.

But, yeah, again, my counter argument to the Chargers last year, my counter argument to the Raiders this year would be, again, looking at, you know, the greatest investors, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger. You spend a great deal of time analyzing a company's leadership and they're managing. team. And that's something retail investors will often underrate or overlook or not even look at at all. And so last year, I was way down on the Chargers because I think Anthony Lynn is a Rex Ryan clone and he's not a competent head coach. And I kind of think the same thing for the head coach and maybe the entire coaching staff of the Raiders, John Gruden especially. I mean, just I can't get out of my

head how many times I watched him on Monday night football. He's like, I'll tell you what, man, this guy here's my Gruden Grinder. And he's talking about the worst slot cornerback in football, hands down a guy I was targeting in DFS each week. So, you know, just to me seems totally incompetent. And the only reason he is still there is because the ownership is so pot committed to him with that massive contract. So that would just be my counter argument. What do you think about John Gruden because everything else you said was was very compelling and then how important to you is turnovers and turnover regression. Okay, so we'll start with Gruden. You know, when you're in media, sometimes you got to fill space with content, even if it's not good content. And, you know,

I think, you know, that Gruden Grinders thing was, it was insuffer. You know, it was pretty bad. But, you know, it was something that was probably asked of him to do. And, you know, yeah, his picks were not good. As far as Gruden the coach, I honestly think he's a little bit undervalued. I think offensively, I think he still got it. I think when he was in Tampa and he was basically the de facto GM and was going through one quarterback after another, it was pretty bad. But he's not in that, well, I don't. know if he's in that position or not now. I have a high opinion of Derek Carr, and I think that

nobody's been able, there's been no other options to beat out Derek Carr or to, they have not been able to trade for a replacement or whatever. So I don't think that he has the same problems that he had in Tampa with quarterbacks where they just went through one after the other. I think the car is a really good option. But as far as Gruden, the coach, I think he still got it. I think offensively, they've been pretty good, given the talent that they've had. I think that all their problems lie on defense. I think that with a little bit of luck, they can really have a successful season.

A little bit of luck and some growth from some positions, where you have either guys that are young that are coming up, like rugs and Edwards, or guys that were brought in, like all the defensive linemen help that they brought in. Their front office scares me big time. I think that Mayock is maybe a decent evaluator of talent, but he has no idea. I think he's a Patsy. I think it's really just 100% John Gruden as GM.

You think so? Yeah. Well, whoever is running the show there has no idea, has no concept of getting value at the right time for your pick. Trying to think of the way to verbalize it. But they're basically picking guys in the first round that could be second or third round picks, and they're doing it over and over again. So bad. It's terrible.

I mean, it really, really is. So whoever is running the show as far as running the draft is just a total donkey. So, but, you know, I think Gruden the coach, I think that there is a, he has a good, you know, raw, raw element to him that some guys will buy into. I don't know. I think that it could, the season could be a disaster for them. That's in the realm of possibilities. But I think that with a little bit of luck and everything.

coming together, you know, you could see that number one seat in the AFC play out. So what was the other question you had asked me? Turnovers. Yeah. So, yeah. I will say really quick. I did, you brought up their defense improving. And I trashed the Raiders coaching staff as a whole.

I think I meant more the front office in that point. They did hire Gus Bradley as the defensive coordinator. And I think that is an improvement. But yeah, turnovers. Yeah, so turnovers are so important in the NFL because you only score in bunches of sevens and threes. And, you know, if you have a situation where you're on the goal line and you throw a pick six, and that's a 14-point swing, it leverages the game in ways that are unlike in any other sport. It's the most important thing other than scoring that can happen in the game.

So, you know, I put a lot of emphasis on turnovers and turnover regression. But I'm not, you know, this super genius who can, you know, predict this or predict that. I just know what to look for and what not to look for, you know, what to dismiss and what not to. So, yeah, that's kind of my opinion on turnovers. Yeah, and that played a significant role in your decision to go all in on Tampa Bay. Just the amount of interceptions, James Winston caused the team versus Tom Brady, even if Tom Brady is just, you know, who he was when he was banged up in 2019. You saw that as a significant improvement.

I definitely, yeah. I basically, yeah, you're exactly right on that. I basically said, you know, if we're going to keep the interceptions and go from, you know, Winston at 30 to Brady at like 10 to 12, then that's like basically flipping three more wins to the wind column. And that's exactly what happened because I think they went from eight and eight to, you know, 11 and 5. So yeah, that, you know, that definitely played into my wanting to bet on Tampa last year. I've always said that turnovers are massively important, but actually sacks get really underrated in the measure of importance. They're just total drive killers. I pulled up the stat.

it is so by EPA interceptions are 2.5 times as negatively impactful as sacks, which I think like most people don't don't think it's that low. I think they think it's typically much higher. But like you said, you know, it could be like a 14 point swing and that's just so devastating and so hard to come back from. So maybe that's not entirely captured, just looking at it by an average of EPA. I'm not sure. But here's a great stat on sacks being drive killers, just as sort of interesting aside. So only 16% of drives in which there were a sack got another set of downs in the 2016 season. So only 16% of drives in which there was a sack got another set of downs,

84% of drives were essentially killed by sacks. Defenses were 70% more likely to kill a drive after sacking the quarterback than we were likely to surrender a set of downs. So I think that's massively important. And you really see with certain quarterbacks, maybe Russell Wilson, for instance, who sacks are a quarterback stat, like they invite that. It's, you have to look at quarterback play like a three-legged stool, Adam Harsstad, would say, where there's aggressiveness.

Look at yards per attempt, driving the ball downfield, and then, you know, accepting a certain amount of risk through, you know, turnover worthy plays, interceptions, and then sacks. Is it like how long you're going to wait in the pocket, look for a person to get open? and you can't ever have all three unless maybe you're Patrick Mahomes. So you're always sacrificing at least one thing for another. Let's talk about one bet you think I'll agree on, and then we can close out the show. Okay. Yeah, so let's talk about Clyde Edwards-Hilaire.

Hey, let's. You are a fantasy guy, so that's right up your alley. So last year, you know, when Damien Williams opted out, you know, Hilar went from like a second, third round pick to like a top 10 pick. And everybody and their mother was, you know, saying this guy's going to win rookie of the year. He's going to be a top 10 fantasy option. He's going to be, you know, top five running back, yada, yada, yada. And so there was a lot of steam on him having a good year. So week one rolls around. And, and. And they're playing the Texans. He had like over 100 yards in that game, and he was definitely the featured back. He had like 10 goal line carries in that game and couldn't convert a single one. And after that, it seemed like they kind of moved him out of that role. But he's continued to get a large amount of carries until about midseason.

You know, he was up in the high teens, to the low 20s. But game script blowouts versus Denver and the Jets kind of limited. his carry numbers in the middle of the season. They just totally annihilated those two teams in two weeks in a row. And then he came back and played against Carolina, and he got injured and missed the next three games. So by the time he came back, it was the end of the season. They're making it their, you know, primed for a deep playoff run.

You know, at that point, they kind of limited his workload, and were filling more Darrell Williams in. and that kind of proceeded into the postseason and all the way through the Super Bowl. So what is there like this year? Well, it's the second year. He's got more familiarity in the offense. You know, they had basically no offseason last year due to COVID. You know, the guy, the draft capital used to get him was a first round pick.

And, you know, we live in an era where there's very few first round running backs taken anymore. And, you know, that's what they did. And that's a position where draft capital is of massive importance. If you look at, you know, like 1,000-yard rushers, really any stat you want to look at with running backs, it really highly correlates to draft capital, which is a point of contention I've had with the running backs don't matter crowd is like, hey, contrast draft capital with running back production versus slot-wide receiver production. and it's night and day.

You know, the more productive slot-wide receivers are typically round six, round seven, undrafted guys where it's almost always first and second round running backs. So I think that's a good point. You can go on. Okay. So, yeah, I agree with everything you said. As far as the off-season this year, I was watching one of the preseason games, and they actually interviewed the GM.

And, you know, he said, look, we're going to run the ball more. year. We're going to have greater success. We've invested a ton of money into this offensive line. And, you know, it's something we're looking to improve on. And, you know, it's funny, I didn't see that anywhere on anybody's, you know, fantasy site or whatever, or didn't see it on Twitter or nothing. But, you know, it kind of really struck a tone with me because, you know, obviously their offensive line failed them last year. So, you know, what does he got going for him this year? He's got all that going for him. He's got a, they're a high scoring team. They're going to win games. He's going to have positive game scripts.

If they become more dependent on the run near the goal line and the red zone, he could potentially benefit. So the league average is like 63% of all offensive touchdowns are passing. And last year, Kansas City was, they only had 13 out of 53, which is like 75% roughly. So if there's any kind of regression towards running the ball on the goal goal goal. line more. He could stand a benefit. This team's going to score points and I want to have a piece of it. So I bet I bet on him to score the most rushing touchdowns at 40 to 1. I bet on him to have the most rushing yards at 55 to 1. And I realize, and everybody immediately says you're a total moron.

Have you ever heard of Derek Henry? Have you ever heard of Nick Chubb? Have you ever heard of Dalvin Cook? But, you know, Minnesota. Minnesota, Tennessee, those teams are, you know, eight, nine win teams. Those two running backs are extremely game script dependent. Cook and Derek Henry have got a lot of miles on them at this point. You know, they're always the best running back in the league until they're not. And the cliff, when they fall off a cliff, it happens fast. And, you know, Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing his rookie year.

It was only like 1,350 yards. We could see a season like that. at this year where, you know, you don't have the bell cow back. So, yeah, and then the other thing that I bet was offensive player of the year at 66 to 1, and I could have actually gotten better if I had access to another sports book that I didn't have access to. You know, a lot of times, if a quarterback wins MVP and they don't have an amazing season where they win offensive player of the year as well, it'll oftentimes go to the running back who

is the most involved in the offense or maybe the number one overall fantasy point producer. So if you ask me if there's a 66 to one chance that he could be, you know, the number one fantasy points score. I can see that happening. Yeah, again, it reminds me of DFS GPP is where it's what's most likely is not really that important because that's already priced in. It's what's the 10% outcome and then what's the payoff of that. That's what you have to look at with Clyde Edwards E. Lear. But I want to talk about this from a fantasy perspective, just because this is a fantasy show and see if you have any special insights here. So two running backs that was very high on in the offseason last year was Clyde Edwards E. Lair

absolutely loved him. And in part due to your confidence in Tampa Bay, Ronald Jones. Of course, Ronald Jones, cut by Leonard Fernette, wasted pick. Clyde Edwards E. Laird, cupped by Levi-on-Bel. And that really screwed me. And I was so high on Clyde, but I don't think the process was wrong. The results surely wrong. I do not think the process was wrong. Like you said, round one draft capital, and that's important. All the incentives are for him to succeed and for them not to look foolish. They knew that was going to be their pick before the draft even started. He called Patrick Mahomes, asked Patrick Mahomes who he wanted. He said Clyde Edwards Eilare. Reed and Veach told reporters right after the traffic that they viewed

him as a feature back. They said he was going to thrive in a Belcal workload. Veach compared him to McCaffrey. Reed said he was already better than Brian Westbrook. From 2004 to 2008 under Andy Reed, Westbrook averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game, ranked second behind only LaDaney and Tomlinson. Edwards Halleer had just set the SEC record for receptions by a a running back prior to his rookie season. So immense PPR value. Andy Reid has a long history of employing a Belkow running back and employing a Belkow running back to great success.

Andy Reid's RB1 has finished top eight in fantasy points per game and 13 of the past 17 seasons, 77% of the time average 18.6 would have finished six best last year. So what went wrong? A lot of things went wrong. Levy on Bell, massive factor. Absolutely. But again, I don't think I was wrong on process. Through the first six weeks of the season, Clyde ranked second among all players at all positions in XFP.

He ranked fifth in snaps, the most important position next to XFP, most important stat next to XFP for a fantasy running back. He averaged only 15.9 fantasy points per game over that span. So volume was a good deal better than his production. But he got very unlucky in the reds. zone in the touchdown department. I say unlucky as opposed to skill for a reason because XFP versus fantasy points, that's a mixture of skill and luck tends to regress to the mean, but there's guys like Alvin Kamara, Tyreek Hill, who consistently overachieve that it is a measure of skill. But with touchdown specifically, it's almost entirely a measure of luck.

it always regresses to the mean. So based on XTD, expected touchdowns, he should have scored 5.3 touchdowns through those first six weeks. He would have averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game. And then, of course, Levy on Bell showed up really, really hurt Clyde's value. I was beside myself so absolutely disappointed. Some things working against him. He made an unsuccessful run at Giovanni Bernard before these six.

settled on Jerich McKinnon, but still, I really love Clyde. I think he's a great pick you can make in late second in your drafts. I have a friend who's one of the best tape evaluators in the game. He was not high on Clyde at any point throughout his charting of him, which includes dating back to college. Just as he's overrated, he's not very good. Maybe that's true. You can say the RB one role under Annie Reed isn't as valuable as it was in the past. Yeah, I mean, you don't need a target running backs in the passing game when you're Patrick Mahomes and you can make every throw all over the field. Donovan McNabb, I get it. Yeah, Pepper, Brian Westbrook with targets. It's a different thing when you have the best quarterback in the game, one of the most historically

past heavy head coaches, including in the red zone, including when they're winning by 10 or more points. You could say Tyreek Hill is a dangerous threat to vulture touchdowns on the ground. He averages 5.6 per game across his career. Patrick Mahomes is going to vulture some of that rushing work. You could say all of that. You could say all of that, but still, he seems to me an amazing pick in fantasy drafts. I think his downside is still like 65% of the snaps and minimal goal line work. And just based on his ADP valuation, that's about right in line. Then he has all that upside if he is who I wanted him to be, which is basically Brian Westbrook-esque with maybe a little bit more rushing volume. And defenses, we see week in, week out, they're going to adopt

the Tampa Bay method. They're just going to leave their defensive backs back. It's going to be light fronts for Clyde Edwards-Hillair to run through. So he's a little banged up, I know, but it doesn't seem too serious with the ankle. Really like him in fantasy drafts. I think you made a really compelling point with regard to making this bet. Yeah, and you mentioned you hope that he's a player that you want him to be. You know, the Chiefs hope that he becomes a player that they want him to be or else, you know, they wouldn't have drafted him with that number one pick. So, so yeah, I think he's going to have a great season.

Love it. All right, Mark. Thank you so much for coming on. This was an absolute blast. Always love talking to you. Like I said, close friend. You can follow him on Twitter at Ed Teach 23 and Mark. Where can, are you doing anything this offseason that you want to let our listeners know about or podcasts, anything like that?

Yeah, I'm doing like a weekly betting podcast with Warren Sharps group over at Sharp Football Analysis. What are you going to be talking about there? We are going to be going through, you know, looking at some results that surprised. from the previous week, talking about maybe some futures positions or some futures plays that are going to update on a weekly basis, you know, talking, you know, division, conference,

Super Bowl, maybe MVP odds updating every week, you know, different things like that. We're hoping to tape on Thursdays, so we might throw in a couple props for Thursday night football and talk about some things that I need to see to make a bet on Sunday, like perhaps like some line movement one way or the other. for Sunday's games.

All right. Thanks again for coming on. I can't wait to check out that show. Cool. Thanks for having me. Good talking to you. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform.

And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.