Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks - Cashing Points w/ Scott Barrett and Graham Barfield

Episode Date: January 20, 2024

The popular DFS show Cashing Points for NFL Premium subscribers, is hosted by Scott Barrett and Graham Barfield, with special guests such as John Proctor, Jake Tribbey, and more! The crew will go position by position on their favorite DFS plays and values, plus lineup construction samples and tutorials powered by our proprietary NFL DFS Optimizer. #dailyfantasysports #DFS #fantasysports #fantasyfootball #fantasybaseball #fantasybasketball #fantasyhockey #fantasysportsstrategy #dfsadvice #dfsstrategy #dfslineup #dfscontest #winningdfs #dfsplays #dfsnews #dfscommunity #dfsadvice #dfsseason #dfssports #fantasygambling --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget online casino is live, bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots that can turn any mundane moment

into a golden opportunity at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Take a spin on the slots, challenge yourself at the tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you can go for the gold at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Gambling problem call connects Ontario 1866-531-260. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario.

Eligibility restrictions apply. See Golden Nuggett Casino.com for details. responsibly. What is going on? Everybody, welcome back. Divisional round football. I got some playoff ball for great games this weekend. We got a great show going through it all. DFS breakdown with my guys Scott Barrett, John Proctor. He'll walk through this four game slate, whether you're four game slate in it, two game slate in it, or showdowning. We're going to be walking through all the games, talking through all the best plays, worst plays, and just going through like we always do. Fun slate. Four games, good games. Really good games.

Scott how's going then how you feeling about this week? Yeah, I'm not supposed to be here wasn't supposed to be on the show this week You're just here so you won't get fined like Marsha much I've been sick for like four weeks and wanted to take the playoffs off But yeah your power went out last week and Jake's under the wet weather prayers up for Jake Yeah, I also told Scott I wouldn't do the show if he didn't do it He also did that yeah yeah well I was hoping Jake would be there to take some of the heat off me but not my A game these last few weeks. Apologies folks at home.

But that's why we got Graham and Johnny. Yeah, no, it's all good, though. Rounding out a good season, man. Fun four-game slate, like I was saying, Jake wrote Slate Breakdown, but he's out like Scott was saying. Slate Breakdown is up on the site. We also have a bunch of other stats and articles up on the site.

My stat pack is up. John will have Hanson's hits up tomorrow. Brale's got all his bets in and his game hubs up. So tons of content getting you ready for the divisional round. We got projections in. Let's get to it. Let's get to this four-game slate here. First game is tomorrow afternoon, 430 on Saturday.

Baltimore are nine and a half-point favorites. Total is 43.5. Just a couple of injury notes. Noah Brown is on IR for the Texans. So we're going to get like John Mechie and Xavier Hutchinson this week. And the Texans rotation on the Raven side of things. It seemed like Mark Andrews had a chance to play, but he's actually going to, it seems like wait a week.

He's out this week and Marlon Humphrey. Their stud corner is out. Stroud last week was fantastic. Obviously got there with big screenplay to Brevin Jordan. You got a broken play to Nico Collins, but a much, much different spot here, Scott for Stroud. This is a really, really good slate for quarterbacks. And I think Stroud is pretty much at the bottom of the barrel for most people this week.

What do you think about Texans and Ravens? Yeah. It's a brutal matchup for Shroud. And that's obviously the concern for him. You could make the case like, you know, this is the team of destiny. This is the offensive rookie of the year. One of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever. And, you know, he could just find a way to get it done.

I'm also thinking of along the lines of like how Johnny kind of talks about these players on granted main slates where there's a lot more quarterbacks at play. But it feels like you can kind of get by. just playing Nico and not playing Shroud and do definitely question Shrouds upside and pretty much agree with the case that he's, you know, on paper probably one of the worst quarterback plays. I do love Nico Collins. He's just been an absolute juggernaut, especially without Tankdale and now no Noah Brown.

I really don't know how much of a difference that makes. but last five full games with shroud under center, 104 yards in a touchdown, 191 yards in a touchdown, 80 yards, 195 yards in a touchdown. And then basically in just like a half of work, 96 yards in a touchdown,

just an absolute monster, entire offense is flowing through him. Marlon Humphrey is out. Second best, wide receiver play of the slate, maybe the best. Yeah, and I think it's like if Humphrey played, it would have been one of those things where you could say the Ravens could have just kind of like shut down Nico. But I don't know if they can now.

That said, I mean, I was trying to look up to like the Stroud weather splits and I couldn't really find them for college. Because it's going to be like 15, 16 degrees in Baltimore. Stroud plays in a dome in Houston. And, you know, it's also been windy. So, you know, I don't know how he's going to be in the cold. And they just keep losing these guys. And it's like, how long can the Texans offense just keep doing this without any pieces? And I think Baltimore was what, like the third, fourth, fifth best team against the tight end, too.

So I don't know. I think Nico's probably the only guy I would look to. Yeah. Titan stats are always kind of wonky. Titan stats allowed, I should say. But Ravens are definitely one of the teams where I think it's sticky because they're so good. Their linebackers and safeties are so good. I'm with you.

This does feel like a spot to kind of get off Texans. It's pretty obvious, though. But Nico is just the nuts again, Scott, for all the reasons you outlined. Five games without Tank Del the season, Nico has seen 40% of the first reads, 40% and nearly 50% of the air yards. It's just absolutely insane target volume. And, you know, Texans, Texas could definitely get stomped here by a couple scores. Ravens have been rolling good teams all year.

Houston's a good team, but Johnny, to your point, I'm more with you. That's where my head's been at kind of all week and as we've gone on here. Yeah, because I think like. Ravenside, though. That's, that's the tricky part. So we got Andrews out. Isaiah likely, I think, is probably the best time in playing the slate. But, you know, or what do you, I guess we're kind of down on Texans.

What do you think of Lamar in this spot? Because I think Lamar versus Allen at the top is probably the toughest call at quarterback this week. Yeah, I also think, like, everyone's going to look at last week's game. And I think it's more that, like, Cleveland just didn't show up than, you know, anything else. So the, but as for likely, I think he'll end up the most popular tight end. I mean, a lot of the industry projections around the, um, haven't even updated yet. So like as for ownership, you know, people are still projecting him like 10% or whatever. I don't, I don't think that's going to happen.

My guess is he probably ends up the highest own just because he's 4,700. Um, Schultz could, you know, be similar, you know, maybe similar ownership, but I, I doubt it. My guess is, is likely ends up, ends up the chalk. Um, no one's going to play. Lamar on draft kings but I think they will play him on Fandall where Fandall continues to just make him like a little cheaper than the other running quarterbacks Scott thoughts thoughts on who

Lamar Lamar unlikely yeah um I really like likely wanted that the over on him someone said that in chat I think John Hanson was talking about that on the show a couple days ago over his last four full games team high 62.8 yards per game 16 fantasy points per game. Remember Kelsey led the position with 14.7 this year. You know, volume hasn't been as good and the touchdowns seem a little fluky. But the on-paper matchups really good. Basically, to me, he's just been like you couldn't ask for anything more. You're basically getting a full. fully healthy Mark Andrews in terms of production.

And he's coming at a fraction of the price. So, yeah, I really like likely. I also like Dalton Schultz, however. He's been shredding too high coverage, which will see at a top 10 rate this week. I also wonder if there's some leverage there, sort of like how Ferguson kind of smashed CD-LAM owners last week. probably not but just something to think about but yeah likely for sure i think uh i kittl it's probably

the best pure value but then it's likely and then shultz maybe three uh just for me um and then lamar um yeah i mean this is the MVP right um the production was sort of underwhelming and and we knew the catalyst behind that which was you know hardball talking about about wanting to get the running backs more work inside the red zone, really limiting his touchdown upside. Also, not so many dropbacks per game, but maybe Houston pushes them. Maybe they don't go. I mean, he has the ceiling. We saw what happened week 17, the slate breaking upside there. But it is a real concern whether or not Houston can keep up. the have the lowest implied point total of the slate only 17 points really low so um bottom line

for me i think i think lamar's good um you know if i'm making three lineups i don't know that that'll be one of those three but uh at the very least on the bubble um we still have to talk about singletary and uh flowers and uh obj and mechi and something like that but any thoughts on that Yeah, I was going to bring up flowers. So flowers, like if you look at his red zone and end zone splits with and without Andrews, it's like he got like no end zone targets when Andrews played. And he got them when Andrews was out. So I think that's something to consider a little bit.

But his like target volume is just so up and down week to week. it's like you can get 10 or you can get like three um which is always what's just what's tough with him and to your point scott with lamar like i think we'll get something in between like that miami game and the other games the rest of the season um the miami game was definitely just like the push for mvp game right um but i do think like we'll see him running more in in the red zone uh in the playoffs oh that's a great point yeah quarterback's always run more in the postseason that's huge for him yeah but like at the one yard line, they still like to use guys. You know, we're not going to see them throwing like three yard passes to the fullback,

like just to like dick around, you know, like they did against Miami. But definitely we'll see, I think, more rushing from him, from Alan and, you know, Mahomes, probably a little bit more from Purdy. Yeah, Alan's been running more. You know, he could just go God mode in this game. But I think I like Lamar a little more than you guys. Um, Flowers is interesting just because his production's been so much better without Andrews, too. I mean, by fantasy points per game, he's like the wide receiver 14 when Andrews is out and he's like outside the top 50 when Andrews plays.

So Flowers is definitely on in play for me more than the normal. And, you know, he's a little overpriced, but I just really like Isaiah likely. We're, uh, we hit Isaiah likely over 34 and a half yards on Fanduel. That's already been bet up. But, uh, he's, he's a really, really strong play. You got to keep in mind. He's basically a slot receiver, and the Texans gave up the third most yours per game to slot receivers this season. So I'm just throwing more fuel on the fire to Wightlyke.

Scott, you brought up Devin Singletary. He's tricky, man, because, like, you know, we know the role is going to be awesome, but we also know he's probably not going to get a ton of dump off. Stroud just doesn't dump off a ton. He's going to be out there a ton. He's 5,700. He's a really strong technical value. But I just really questioned the ceiling.

Yeah, I mean, even. even the floor. He's, he's scored over 13.5. Yeah. DK fantasy points just twice over his last eight games. Um, but I mean,

like typically this is what we're all over is, I mean, it's not that cheap, but like cheaper running back to an 80 plus percent snap share. Um, I think Jake wrote him up as the second best running back value on the slate. I don't know if that's where I'd have it, but,

um, yeah, that probably wouldn't be where I have it, but, um, median maybe. For cash. Yeah,

that's how he wrote it up. Back to Flowers, though. So I was like the world's biggest flowers hater. And like that never really burnt me. He didn't have a single game with at least 80 receiving yards.

Up until his second or last game, he saw season high in volume 13 targets, scored over 22 fantasy points. And in the next week, season high, 106 yards. and a touchdown on only three targets. But he cleared 22 draft Kings fantasy points in both games,

five touchdowns over his last five games, 10 were targets than any other Ravens receiver over that span. I sort of waffle on the matchup. Like that Amari Cooper blowup game, Houston lost multiple DPs to injury during the game. And if you take that out, they've been pretty good against wide receiver ones. the shutdown Cooper last week, Michael Pittman before that, DeAndre Hopkins before that.

So that's something I struggle with. To me, like, I've just been a hater all year and he just feels like a little overpriced and a met play. But, you know, I could see him hitting. Still, he would be pretty, pretty low in my desire to get him on a lineup. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, the other thing is Beckham's overpriced, too. You know, he's going to, I've seen the narrative that, you know, they've been saving Beckham for the playoffs. And Johnny, I want to get your thoughts on this because, like, he's just been a part-time guy all season. I mean, Bateman and Aguilar have played ahead of him. In fact, the last like four or five games?

Do you think they've been saving Beckham or I think he's just, do you think he's still just like in this part-time role? I think, I mean, it's like, is he the wide receiver two? Yeah. But like what is the wide receiver two in Baltimore? You know, Agalore. What likely is really the number two? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I don't think there's any type of saving him. I mean, I think, you know, I think they've limited his workload all year. So maybe he plays, you know, 10% more or something like that. But yeah, will he play more snaps, probably? Will it really matter for, you know, what he's been and what his role has been? Probably not.

Yeah. I'm definitely aligned with you. I don't get the narrative that they're going to give Beckham like an 85, 90% route show. like they do with flowers. Maybe 70%. That would be pretty big for Beckham, but yeah. I mean, it would be easy to do. You just stop playing Bateman and Agalore who stink. OBJ is since week nine ranks 15th among all wider speakers.

You know what's hilarious about Bateman though? Fantasy points per route run. Bateman ranks in like the top 10 of the NFL and like yards like separation. You just can't do anything else. Yeah, I wonder some of that is just the routes they ask him to run to. Yeah, he's just, he's their clear. out guy for a lot of stuff.

Yeah, I think a lot of guys might just like abandon him. Yeah, it's like, he's not getting the ball anyway. Yeah, it's fine. Any interest in these backs, just real quick, Hill and Gus. Yeah, we did have a question in chat on Justice Hill. Man, it's like I want to play Hill in the playoffs. Yeah. My concern is Dalvin.

I feel like Hill is who Dalvin probably eats into the most. I don't know. I mean, Dalvin's going to play. It's a matter of, like, how much? Like, is he going to play 10 snaps, or is he going to play 15 to 20 and be super annoying? Yeah, or is he just the Melvin Gordon if they dust him? You know, he gets like eight carries then, you know?

I think he's more than Melvin. Because I think they would just kept him out of play then, honestly. I think they would have kept Melvin. Like, if Dalvin was just a one-to-one, they would have just kept Melvin Gordon. Yeah, that's fair enough. That's fair enough. Yeah, I had the same thought. Justice Hill is like the only kind of thought just as a one-off, but whatever.

I think Gus is like your play Gus in the Ravens defense and like fade the rest of the game. I think is the only way you would play him. But for 5,900, he's like, he's way too expensive. Yeah, and even on Fandul where you'd prefer to play him 6,900 for the slate is a bit much. Devon Singletary, 6,400 on Fandul, and he's going to be massive, massive chalk for the four and two game slate. I think they'll cover it. You guys want to move on. Packers, Niners here. Jordan Love just absolutely dusts Dallas here last week.

Absolutely great game. Niners, nine and a half point favorites. 50 and a half is the total. AJ Dillon did get back to a limited practice today. Gives him a chance to play tomorrow. We'll see. Jari Alexander's been dealing with this ankle injury for two, three weeks now. He's questionable.

Niners are pretty clean coming to this spot. Obviously, get a week off. Niners are rolling into the spot here. Big nine and a half point favorites. Obviously, draft Kings has got to adjust pricing. There's only four games, yada, yada, yada, but like Johnny

Brock Purdy's 6,500 makes really no sense. Purdy's probably going to be the highest on quarterback on the slate and everybody's going to want to play some niners. So what do you think about San Francisco here in this spot? Yeah, I was like messing around with just like spitting out, you know, the top 20 lineups with like aggregate projections. And I spit out 20 and I think the first like 12 had party in them. So yeah, he's going to be massive chalk.

Yeah, I just spit it out again, 80% party for the 20 optimals across the industry. He just projects so well and he's 1,500 cheaper than the top. So, you know. Yeah. I do think what will be overowned for him though is so like, let's say, of these teams, I spit out 11 of them have Brock and McCaffrey. And I do think like, you know, everyone says, you know, you can play Purdy and McCaffrey. He does throw, you know, passing touchdowns to McCaffrey.

But for McCaffrey, really, to hit the ceiling, I think he kills, he kills Purdy. So that's one thing I probably would avoid. But, I mean, Purdy is the best value. Obviously, Green Bay's defense, you know, you know, they did have the pick six against Dak or whatever, but, you know, Dallas did put points on them because you can put points on Green Bay. So it'll be hard to get away from him. But I do think probably what's most popular is people are going to play Purdy, McCaffrey. And as Scott said, Kittle, I think Kittle will be pretty popular with Purdy.

And then that's kind of where people will draw the line. Yeah. I think Kittl is just a really strong play in general at his price. Yeah, and then you mix in the fact it's a really, really good spot for him. to Jake Ferguson just lost his mind in this spot. Good coverage matchup too for Kittle. I-Yook, though, man. Scott, I'll get your take on Debo versus I-Uk.

I-Uk is, what, 800 cheaper than Debo. Averages are slightly more Draft King's fantasy points per game. A nice little price discount for I-Uk. It is a decent match-up for Debo. Packers do play quite a bit of zone. But I-Uk can get off on anybody here. What do you think about I-Uk versus Dill? Debo. I know you're on Kettle. Yeah, just to be totally transparent is like, I don't think anyone

knows. Like, this has been a nightmare trying to pick between these two guys all year. And yeah, the zone matchup does favor Debo. I also think Debo is just fully back. Like, you know, we were told he showed up to Camp Fat and out of weight last year, but the year before that had one of the best seasons ever, insane hyper efficiency. And yeah, it looks like he's back. And, And so, yeah, it's crazy at like week six, I was saying, you know, like, I'll just play IU because I think he's better. But now I've kind of reversed course and I kind of think Debo's better and possesses more upside. Definitely more productive in the second half. So that would be my personal lean, but realistically, like, just no one knows.

Yeah, that's fair. Debo definitely has the contrarian argument. I think everybody is going to play on Rod, 82. too. Debo probably will get clicked significantly, significantly less here. Yeah, I think probably my favorite thing to do if I'm playing pertinent in tournaments, you play him. Play Debo. Debo and you don't play McCaffrey.

You know, you can play him with Kittle or also IUC and gets you like immediately different than everybody else. Yeah. Yeah, Debo and Kittle would be my preference. But obviously like Scott said, man, I mean, I, Uke gets the 100-yard bonus like every other week at this point. Packers side, man, it's tricky. Like Jordan Love was awesome, fantastic, and Packers have their quarterback in the future. That being said, I mean, Romeo Dubs lost his mind last week, but he's now 5,600.

They went with a full-blown rotation after that, like Jane Reed and Don Tavenman, Wicks, split time. Obviously, we're going to expect Christian Watson to play more this week. But Proctor, I've got to ask, man, I mean, this Packers, it's tough to stack. I mean, obviously, Aaron Rogers is a, Aaron Rogers, Aaron Jones is a really good play game this week. AJ Dylan has a chance to play, but Packers, receivers real quick, man. I mean, it's tricky. What's your lean on Dubs, Reed, Wicks, all these dudes? Yeah, Dubs is the guy, I'll never play him.

I don't care what he does the week before. Just don't think he's very good. But I think Jaden Reed is probably my favorite. And the problem is, I think, is everybody sort of figured this out. too. It's like he plays in the slot now with everybody healthy. So like when everybody was dead, Reed just like was a full time player everywhere because they had to use him. But then with everybody back, he's their full time slot receiver. And since they, you know, just like blew the brakes off of Dallas, they didn't have to play three wide receivers. So he just didn't play as much.

If they are trailing, he will play way, way more. So in, you know, stacks of this game, where you're playing love or you're playing purdy where you expect this to shoot out. I think Reed is where I would want to go. But it looks like he projects to be like by far the highest owned of that group. I do think Watson will play more, but I think it's annoyingly going to be like a three wide receiver rotation for the two outside wide receivers. So, you know, I do, you know, if somebody catches a 60-yard touchdown,

it's probably Watson. But that's probably like the best idea that I have. yeah Watson will play more but I'm with you wicks and and Bo Milton honestly are playing really well in their own right to like you know I don't think they're going to get benched you know and LaFleur loves loves these rotations as it is um yeah I'm with you read read is in play but even at 5200 there's just better plays yeah way cheaper it feels it feels you know kind of kind of off um I don't know Scott what do you think man yeah I the first lineup I made was a Jordan love Romeo Dobbs, Jaden Reed Stack.

I just don't think anyone's going to play it, and I like it. We should have started off with the quarterbacks, I think, not just Purdy, who's like an obvious value, but it's going to be so highly owned. I don't think it really makes a ton of sense to play him on this slate. Jordan Love, so Jake wrote up Love as the worst quarterback play of the slate. I think he's going to be owned as such, but yeah, I was talking to Brett about this, Brett Whitefield who thinks the Packers win. And he thinks love goes nuclear because the 49ers have this amazing pass rush and

then one of the worst secondaries in all of football. And Green Bay might have the best offensive line in football. And so anytime San Francisco has played a team with a good offensive line, they've just been annihilated through the air. And you look at what Jordan Love has done. He's been easily one of the most impressive quarterbacks over the last, I don't know, six or eight weeks or so. And you can like quibble with maybe the upside a little bit just in terms of raw production.

But like really, I just think there's like room for more. You know, like he's just played at such a high, hyper efficient level. Like I think he's leaving some points on the board, you know, partly due to game script. And we know quarterbacks are positively correlated. So, so I, if you're going to like Purdy, you should like love. and I do like, I love Isaiah likely and I like Jordan Love this week.

Hey. And he's just like super cheap to stack and you know there's upside there. Where it gets annoying is it's like hard to pick who to stack which makes it tricky. But like for an MME player like Johnny, I would make a ton of different love

dub stacks because I think they can all get there. And I know Johnny thinks Dob stinks and he probably does. But LaFleur is like, yeah, he'll play. Huh? I'm saying he'll play a ton.

I just don't think he's good. Yeah, that's fine that you don't think he's good. I'm saying it doesn't really matter. I don't know that any of these guys are really that good. I think Matt LaFleur is the most underrated offensive play caller in the NFL. I think he's top five. He's doing an amazing job of getting these guys open

and in the right spots where love can hit him and taking advantage of mismatches. And so, you know, we saw Dobbs upside last week. We've seen Watson's upside at times. I do really worry about that injury. I think I'd feel even a little bit more comfortable with, with Reed, who like, you know, like, you know, three targets, no catches last week. But, I mean, he was just as hurt as he was the week before, turned four targets into 112 yards was on an unreal heater before that. Honestly, I think it was just because they, like, had both tight ends and they were just running the ball down Dallas.

us just throw out so they just didn't play him yeah yeah and to that point i mean i'm kind of in on tucker craft as opposed to playing you know i don't know dontavian wicks or any of these guys tucker craft just 3100 uh ran 12 routes to luke musgraves five last week so you know obviously expecting packers to have to drop back 35 36 37 times here so you know craft and love stacks uh makes a ton of sense and i'm not i'm not sure a ton of people are going to play i think more people are going to want to play kdot and kind of chase that the craft is cheaper than luke uh luke musgrave um so i i like him quite a bit if you're stacking him with love or jade um kind of aligning with johnny and scott on that one um anything else we miss from this game

aaron jones what are we doing yeah he's a really great play again i mean i think it really does i think if a j dylan does play it it it kind of does kill jones's projection a little bit at least in terms of ceiling just because we know Dylan's going to get goal line stuff. But he was limited to day. Packers are obviously super conservative. I don't think he plays. But I thought that too, but like Watson played and was like legitimately limited for a playoff game. I don't know.

And that's why I'm like thrown off because like Watson played. So I'm like, okay, Packers are letting him play. He's going to be fine. And then he played like eight snaps or whatever. Yeah, he ran six routes. Watson ran six routes. So I mean, if Dylan plays, he'll probably be very limited. but it could be, you know, he gets the one goal line carry and that kind of screws Jones.

But yeah, it definitely is a little bit of downside risk, but not enough to move me off of Jones entirely. I don't think. I mean, he's a really, really good player again. Yeah. Yeah. And Scott, if you think Packers win, I mean, not to say you think, but if someone thinks the Packers win, Packers D and Aaron Jones is like a fantastic tournament play if you think they win the game. Yeah, I don't know. I kind of see it as a show. shootout this game, but definitely could be that. I think AJ Dillon increases the bust risk, but like the upside is still there. It would be stupid to give A.J. Dylan any touches, like even inside the red zone, but it's just like that's what they do. Yeah. Yeah, that's the one

thing LaFleur has done poorly this year is continue to use AJ Dillon. I mean, they should just honestly use Patrick Taylor or one of these other dudes. Also, I mean, it's just whatever. devil's advocate, Aaron Jones was hurt for most of the year. Yeah, and I'm sure some people will ask, like, can we play like Elijah Mitchell in 49ers-D? Absolutely not. They will ride McCaffrey until he dies in the playoffs. Yeah, you're going to get 99% SnapShare McCaffrey. That's for sure.

The only time he's coming off the field is if his shoe falls off or something. All right, Bucks Lions, this is my favorite game of the week here. bucks lines in Detroit. Detroit is getting six. They were at six and a half got hammered back down to six here. 49 and a half is the total. Chris Gobbin pops up. He had a knee injury on Wednesday, but he's off the injury report now. Chase Edmonds has a toe injury, and that is actually kind of significant. He's getting a couple drives in place of Rashad White. So keep an eye on Edmonds this weekend. And on the lion side, Kaleef Raymond is out again. He has a knee injury. it's just going to further condense the routes between Reynolds and James and Williams here. So, fun game.

I will say on White, he got hurt in the last game. I forget exactly what it was. But he left. And I can roll his ankle. I remember seeing him on the sidelines working something. Yeah. And like no one really reported it, but he was out of the game for a little bit. So I think that was part of why we saw.

Edmonds play a lot more. It was a weird thing. Yeah, that's fair enough. I looked back through this and just watching their games. Edmonds just gets like a random drive at, you know, like the second quarter to give white a breather. But it's enough to like take White from being like 85% to like 65. So it is notable. Awesome game though. Obviously, you know, Mayfield and Goff. You know, Purdy is a really strong play. But I mean, you can make a case for Mayfield and Goff in both really strong spots here. Scott, I'll kick it to you first. man for your thoughts on this game. But, you know, Goff and Mayfield both cheap, both cheaper than Purdy. And obviously super easy to stack in a, you know, most likely shootout environment here in this 49.5 total.

What do you think about this game? Yeah, I don't think, I mean, looking at ownership, Purdy is going to be so much more highly owned than Jared Goff, but I'd have them a lot closer. We know Jared Goff smashes at home. This is a great matchup. Tampa Bay top pass funnel defense, which is important for Detroit. You know, so many running back vultures or rushing touchdowns. Yeah, he's cheaper than Purdy.

He's $1,600 cheaper than Lamar. I think he's an awesome play and stacked with Amun Ross, St. Brown, makes a ton of sense. Graham, you said you thought St. Brown is the best wide receiver play of the slate. I agree with that. Yeah, he's just, I mean, absolutely going nuclear right now. 8,200 is too cheap for him. And if the Bucks keep this game close, I mean, he's just going to walk to the 100-yard bonus in this spot. You know, the concern for Goff is that Bucks have become so blitz heavy.

You know, we were all over this last week with Hertz. Like the Eagles just didn't do anything. They just kept putting them in empty. It'll be interesting to see. I mean, Gough has massive splits when Blitz this season. You know, when he's not blitzed, only Brock Purdy has. a higher pass rating than Goff, but when he's blitzed, I mean, Goff, you know, drops to, like, you know, bottom five quarterback in the NFL. So if the lines, you know, can keep him upright,

easier said than done. Bucks are getting home pretty decent rate, 55% of the time on their blitzes. So kind of interesting, Ying and Yang here, but I'm on Ross St. Brown is like just, I mean, he's going to get 35% of the targets with, in this spot here. Johnny, I'll throw it to you for your thoughts on Reynolds versus Jameson Williams. They're both, they both project well. They're both cheap and golf projects amazing, obviously.

Yeah, I would, I mean, I would lean Reynolds a little bit. I do prefer, I prefer Shakir to both of them, which is surprisingly around the industry. They,

I think he's coming in third in values. You're going to see a lot of lineups with Reynolds and Jameson, which I think's probably bad. I do think they're, but I do, I do lean Reynolds, though, because I think he has a chance to get like more target volume with Caliph out.

But Jameson is like, you know, if you're playing a lineup that you are hoping to get, you know, a hundred and one out of, I think you're more likely to get a big play from Jameson Williams. Like if you're playing golf or you're playing Baker and you want this game to just speed up. To your buck's point, though, someone had asked in chat, my favorite for tournaments, like running back defense pairing and it's bucks and white because I think, you know, if you get bad golf and you get a golf meltdown and it's like real, real, real bad. And we've seen, you know, real, real bad golf games in the past, then you'll probably need the bucks if we get one of those.

So, uh, 2,500 with how they blitz and how golf, you know, his history, I think they're, they're pretty good. Um, that said, um, I do think, you know, with the lions, uh, offensive line healthy, I don't think that's the most likely outcome, obviously. So I would lean Reynolds, Jameson for upside. And I do think I think Leporta's a little interesting. I think he'll play a lot more this week too. Price makes him hard to play.

So in tournaments, he'll be sort of like non-owned. Yeah. No, I love golf with St. Brown, obviously, plus Leporta for that reason. Last week, I mean, kind of normal-ish. usage, 73% route share, but only three targets for Leporta. I'm with you. I think we'll get, you know, full-time usage. And the bucks are just getting absolutely cleaned out by tight ends. I mean, just absolutely hammered. I've given up 41 catches, 420 yards, five touchdowns over the last six games to tight ends. It's a really, really good spot. I don't think Leport is fully healthy.

I think that's kind of priced in. But yeah, he's a really strong playing golf stacks. I'm with you on Reynolds over Jameson Williams. I think it is a little close, But last week, it was interesting. Reynolds got 35% of the first reads on the lines tied with Amman Ra for the team high. I don't think he's very good. But, I mean, this is an awesome spot. And if we think Bucks keep this close. Yeah, Reynolds is in a really good spot here.

Scott, I'll toss to you for your thoughts in this game and your thoughts on Bucks and Mike Evans, Chris Goblin, all the things here. Yeah, I don't know. Baker's strong. He's not too far off, Purdy and Goff. It's a really good matchup. It looked healthy last week. Really amazing matchup. He's been on fire. It's the best matchup on the board, I think. Yeah. Honestly, yeah. I mean, lines have just gotten shredded through the air, nearly 300 yards per game. Yeah, man, Baker's a really strong play. I, you know, Goff at home is always really good. But I kind of think. think I might prefer Baker straight up over golf in this spot. I think Evans is like the best tournament play on the slate. Yeah, yeah. I wanted to ask you about that. Godwin projects well at 6,300, but I'm with you.

I think people are going to get off of Evans with Nico there at 71. Well, you're pulling, like, so like projections are pulling, you know, the last four games. The last four games have been, you know, the Jacksonville game, he was great. But the four, you know, the other three games have been horrible. But like Evans dropped a touchdown. And then he, Baker had him wide open for another touchdown. It got tipped at the line and picked off.

So like if both of those were touchdowns, everyone would be wanting to play Mike Evans instead. No one wants to play him. Lions just get torched on the outside. I mean, this is just, it's like the perfect spot to play him. Yeah. It's a home run spot for Evans, man. I like Godwin too.

I'm with you. I think he's probably going to come in. way higher own just because he's nine under cheaper he's seen more targets in his last five games godwin's a good play too but i'm with you on evans yeah i don't think anyone will play godwin much either i don't think anyone's really going to play all that much i think they'll both

be around like 15 percent something like that you make her doubles then i mean that's yeah i think people will find the extra 500 to get up to rice from godwin uh and i think that's fair maybe flowers too um just the guy in that range. People just don't play Godwin.

Yeah, that's fair. I can understand getting up to Rice. For sure, Rice is, I think, my favorite play on the slate. Once again, but yeah, fun game. Any interest in chasing KDOT and Johnny, I know we all, we said for three years. He sucks. He had 11 targets last week, drop three of them, but still got there because the Eagles are so bad in the interior. People are going to chase it, I think. Yeah, I think he'll have some. I mean, you know, it's a four-game slate. he's 3,500.

It's a good price for a guy who will. He will play. You know, he plays 80% of the snaps or whatever it is. He runs all the routes. He's not good at all. You know, I mean, he's like fine, but he's not like an elite tight end. So, you know, you're going to get 10 yards of catch from him. And whether he gets two catches or he gets six catches, you know, more likely to get two.

Yeah. I'll just say like, you know, Purdy is going to be the highest own quarterback on the slate, but talking through this more and, you know, going through it with you guys. I mean, honestly, you can make a case to get away from them just because I think Mayfield and God for such strong plays. And this game, you know, 49.5 is the total. I mean, obviously this game has path to get there to 65, especially if bucks show up. And there was a quote from Bowles about like, he said something like they threw the ball last

week because they knew they were the underdogs. And then he said something like, and we're, you know, we're underdogs again. So I wouldn't be shocked to see him throwing the ball again. Yeah. And it lines up. Yeah, they're going to chuck it. Yeah, I like it. Let's get to the final game here, divisional round chiefs at Bills.

Bill's getting two and a half. This line popped up to three at a few books yesterday and got hammered back down, juiced heavily towards two and a half bills. 45 and a half is the total. Chief side real quick, Sky Moore won't return this week off of IR. They have Justin Ross and Cadarious Tony, both questionable. I think one of them maybe sets in this game.

We'll have to see. On the bill side, Gabe Davis will miss another game, and they are just beat up defensively, man. Christian Benford, Taylor Rap, Balin Specter, all going to miss this game. Their stud linebacker Torell Bernard is probably going to miss this game. They had to bring back old friend. AJ Klein, who played well last week.

But Bills are in definitely a rough spot defensively. McDermott has done a really good job all season, getting these guys to play. But this is certainly a rougher spot here. Fun game. Obviously, you know, bills haven't been able to get past the Chiefs in the playoffs yet. This is probably their best chance at home as favorites against the Chiefs team that just obviously hasn't been as explosive this season. For DFS, Johnny, 31st, man. I'm homes at 6,800.

You know, obviously he's not gotten there all season. season, but this is the cheapest he's been all year. I think this is obviously the easiest he's been to stack all year with Rice and Kelsey being so condensed. What are your thoughts on Mahomes and this game in general? I probably won't play Mahomes. I can, like, I can see the argument for it. He does run more in the playoffs. You saw it last week. He's done that historically. but I just like, you know, Kelsey, you know, got a little bit more volume last week. He still did not look like, you know, Kelsey of old. Now we got rumors of him and, you know, Taylor Swift are going to get engaged.

You know, this guy's just giving up on football, right? I mean, I don't know. It's just, I mean, it's just like not the powerhouse team. It's going to be cold as shit in Buffalo. There's snow again. If I'm playing a quarterback from this game, it's, it's Alan. I'm probably not going to get up to him either. I mean, I think he'll run a ton.

But I don't know. I would rather just play the individual pieces. I like Rice. I might play a little bit of Hardman again, even though he, you know, just, you know, the Sklansky bucks you get for Hardman. I've heard like 10 people say he Sclansky bucks for him. That deep ball from the homes where he didn't put his hands up, like he was wide ass open. God.

Just didn't try. And then, uh, he's, He's not good, man. Yeah, the play where he, I don't remember if it was this past weekend or the week before where he got held and just, like, stopped running. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Dude, his, his ball skills are not there, non-existent. Yeah. Yeah, I'm a little more into Mahomes than you are, but I'm kind of with you. It sounds like to me, Johnny, you, you're more into, like, the, you know, Goff and Love and Mayfield stacks, along with Purdy, as opposed to going up. to Alan and Lamar. Is that fair to say? Yeah, I'm just like leaning the good weather games. Okay. Fair enough.

Yeah, I think that's that's also a good point in this game. I think if we knew it was going to be like cold but not like, you know, super freaking cold this total will probably be 47 and a half probably. It's probably every time I go outside the last couple of days, I just freeze my dick off. It's like it's like 15, 20 degrees here in Maryland and it's going to be colder than that in Buffalo. Yeah, I tried to take a five minute walk. walk this afternoon. I was like, what am I doing? I'm going back inside. Yeah, man, it's, it's brutal. I'm with you on Allen. I think Allen's the best quarterback play on the slate. It is, it is close in terms

of just projection between him and Lamar. But I'm kind of with you, you know, with 2K savings, nearly between him and all these other cheaper guys. It's, it's kind of hard to get to Allen. And this also doesn't feel like a boom game, you know, like you said, Chiefs just haven't been as explosive. They haven't been pushing teams as much. Obviously, they didn't get pushed. last week because Miami was so bad. Scott, what do you think about this game? Yeah. So I mean, like I get what you guys are saying. It's not the same old Patrick Mahomes. The weather is a concern. The over under is five points less than Ravens or 49ers. But the last time these two teams faced off, the quarterbacks combined for 844 yards,

eight touchdowns, tons of rushing production. I mean, would it really shock us if this was like a throwback, just Allen Mahomes shootout? I don't think it wouldn't surprise me. And I could see this game kind of going under, you know, what it should in terms of ownership given its like blowout potential. I think it would surprise me, man. Yeah.

Yeah, I'm kind of more with Johnny. I think it would surprise me too to see like this, this turned into like a 65 point game. It just feels like both offenses are different. Yeah, yeah. And, you know, Scott, we were told that, you know, Bill's just haven't been able to, you know, Joe Brady's not able to scheme an offense, a passing offense. Like, Condorcie was. And I think that's somewhat true.

We've seen that with Diggs. Like Diggs's usage has been like all over the place. James Cook's receiving usage has just, like, died in the last month, even though he's an amazing receiver. it's weird it's it's a weird game um i i will say i do like mohams relatively a little bit more um but yeah still uh i kind of i think the 45 and a half total is just just right um bill side man i mean it's it's pretty simple uh this week chikir is just a really really strong play johnny i think you might have brought it up a minute ago but i'm with you i think Shakira is not only like way better than Reynolds and Williams.

I think he's one of the best plays on this slate. He's just 3,800 last week at a full-time route chair. And he's been really, really good. Like when he gets an actual start, super productive, just 3,800. Chiefs are relatively speaking, easier to throw against through the slot as opposed to outside. And Shakur's pretty much predominantly inside receiver. So 3800 for Shakir is a really, really strong tag for him. him in this game for sure.

Yeah, and I think the big thing, too, is like Kansas City shuts down wide receiver ones. Yeah. This is hurt. He, like, they said he was limited at best today. I mean, Shakir just feels like such a smash. And Josh Reynolds and James and Williams are going to be both, I think, are going to be higher owned than Shakir, which is just like, really, really bizarre to me.

Maybe ownership projections around the industry are wrong, but that's where everyone is projecting it. So we'll see on that. I prefer Shakir by a wide margin. You know, I know the Lions have a bigger team total, but these are two guys splitting like a sort of wide receiver two, three role between the two of them where Shakir is like the for sure wide receiver two in this matchup.

I don't get it. Someone had asked about, you know, who was the 3K wide receiver you would play in chat? And it's definitely Shakir. he's the guy would be my priority by a good bit. Yeah, I think if you're not playing golf and not playing lines and just want to full foot fade Reynolds and Williams over and just play Shakir, I think that that's the play in this spot here. I've got to ask you guys about Pacheco and James Clerk.

Pacheco, 6,400, you know, it's just such a strong play, man. I mean, Belcal roll. Bills have been really good against the run, but they're missing all their linebackers in the spot. Part of the reason, Scott, I think this game kind of goes under is I just think the chiefs might lean on the run here in this spot. Pacheco and the run game has been one of their few consistent points. Sixty four hundred Johnny for Pacheco is really, really strong. What do you think about him and what do you think about James Cook? Yeah, man, I just like I want Cook to be what he was for that like three or four game stretch. Yeah, I know. Just like not throwing to him.

know if maybe that was just a product of, you know, the way the Steelers game was. I mean, he, you know, he got 18 carries, which is, you know, nice to see they ramped him back up. He did get four targets. So I do think he's, you know, for sure, like the lead back. Nice to see that Fournette was inactive, which, which makes you not worry about, you know, him losing goal line touches too. But role's weird. I mean, I like Cook a lot. I definitely prefer Pacheco by a good bit. I think, you know, now that we're down to the playoffs, it's just going to be with everyone else dead, it's just going to be Belcal Pacheco.

Miami never really showed up, so we never really saw them have to throw to Pacheco, but I think if Miami had showed up, they would have thrown to him. Yep. So he'd be my second favorite back behind McCaffrey by a good bit. Yeah, I think he's my second favorite by far too. 77% of the snaps, 84% of the backfield XFP, and 4%. in four starts without McKinnon, just such a sick role. And yeah, like you said, Dolphins just couldn't do anything offensively,

so we didn't see any past game work. I looked at this for James Cook. So, yeah, like, you know, he's not seen as many targets, but his route share has really come up. It's nearly 50% over the last four weeks, which is important because it was like, you know, 33% in his four or five previous games. He was, you know, truly a part-time guy. So a little bit of a bull signal for him, I will say,

is he's playing more, you know, ball will find him more. But we'll see. his ceiling is i just that Dallas game and even the kC game it just kind of feels like he got hot for two games and you know allan is just going to be backscoring the touchdowns obviously that's the the uh the big capper to his ceiling um good stuff guys you guys want to make a lineup real quick let's do lineup let's hit it right in the uh fantasy points optimizer here um i'm just Let's treat it like a single entry team because everyone has asked what is the single entry build. All right.

So Shakir Lock him in. Shakir Lock him in. All right. And by the way, if you're listening, Shakir's prop is like 31.5. We will be on that for sure. All right. So Shakir's locked in. What do you guys want to do with a quarterback and for stacks?

Scott, I think you said you don't want to. play party in tournaments, I'm okay with going away from him. I mean, he's just going to be so owned. Yeah, definitely is. In smaller fields, I think probably even more. Yeah, and then like what's your edge on the field, right? Yeah, and small fields, probably not much. There's only so few plays you can have.

So there's a good chance, you know, your Purdy team is going to be duped multiple times. Yep. Unless you go crazy. So you want to go Baker Love, Goff instead? Yeah, that's where my head's at. Let's go golf. I'm with you guys on golf. We'll play golf and I'm on Ra.

And I'm with you on Evans. Yep, if we can fit him. Yeah, we should be able to. Shakir's so cheap. Goff's only 63. Do we lock in Pacheco, too? I'm kind of there. I'm good with that.

Yeah. So probably not going to be able to get the CMC since we have St. Andy Evans here. For tight end, Kittle or likely for wide receiver Nico or St. Brown. We got St. Brown locked in because we got

golf. Let's go likely. We'll go likely and see what it goes this year. I guess we might as well play one of the other cheap lion's wide receivers. Do we play Jameson? I'm good with him or Reynolds.

I just figured we should probably double Gough. Yeah, that's good a call. All right, we'll go to Jamo. It's a little upside here. All right. Goff, Pacheco gave us white. That's nice with Evans, St. Brown. Shakir likely 16.

Line Z too. Yep, I'm good. Yeah, I'm good with Lions D. Yeah, I'm good with that too. White makes sense, too, as I bring back. Yeah, nice. I will throw this into a little cheap tournament. guys, good luck this week.

We'll see you guys at the top of leaderboards if we don't take down some tournaments. Hope you guys all do. Good luck out there. If you're playing four game, playing two games, showdowns, whatever you're doing. Good luck in the DFS streets this weekend. And I think this will do it for the season. Scott, are we doing a show next week? You're going to sign off?

Oh, no, it hit. It hit. Oh, literally the last thing. Oh, my God. Yes. I'm not sure about a show next week. We'll get back to them. All right.

Well, this might be it. Guys, awesome, awesome season. Thomas, thank you so much for all the work behind the scenes, production-wise. Scott, Johnny, great season, boys. We don't see you guys next week. Good luck in the DFS streets this week. Divisional Round Football 4 games late. Good luck.

See you.