Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Draft Props + Aaron Rodgers Trade Reaction

Episode Date: April 25, 2023

The NFL Draft is upon and betting on the 2023 NFL Draft is hotter than ever! From who will go number one overall to how many tight ends will go in the first round, there's a bet for everyone. We enlisted the help Fantasy Points Betting Analyst Tom Brolley to give his takes on the draft. You'll learn which plays the sharps are on and others to stay away from in this information-packed episode! Oh, also some guy named Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets. We break down the trade from a fantasy football angle. Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy https://twitter.com/FG_Dolan https://twitter.com/TomBrolley https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Use our code "FANTASYPTS" at UnderdogFantasy.com and we'll match your initial deposit up to $100. Also, we'll throw in a $5 subscription to FantasyPoints.com when you do! #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2023 #NFLDraftProps #FantasyPoints #AaronRodgers #Jets --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. All across the fantasy universe, welcome everyone to the two-points dance, powered by FantasyPoint.com, and the Carolina Panthers are officially on the clock. is draft week. What's going on, everybody? I'm Brian Drake at Drake Fantasy on Twitter. Hanging with my pale, Mr. Joe Dolan, managing editor of FantasyPoint.com on the Twitter machine at FG underscore Dolan. Joe, this week we're going to have a lot of fun. We're going to

talk NFL draft props. We're bringing it back. I think it's his third appearance on the show. It's the grinder Tom Broley. Joe, how excited are you to have Tom here and how excited are you to win? Well, let's be honest. At least bet. We're not going to say win. We're going to win. We are going to win some cash on this show today. I cleaned up on the draft last year, Drake. Oh, yeah, my big one was Matt Corral essentially not to be drafted in the first round, which in hindsight sounds absolutely ridiculous, and it was.

So I put a nice hefty wager on that one last year. So let's hope that was a guru special. That was a guru special. That was a John Hanson special. We weren't allowed to spread that one out, but he said over 33 and a half, I would bet my house on it. Yeah, and he ended up going in the third round. I thought it was the fourth round. Wasn't it the first day, early in the fourth, I thought.

Well, whatever it was, the Panthers treated up for him. And we know how that worked out. I mean, it got hurt in preseason. But let's hope Tom's got some props for us today, Drake. I'm excited to bet it. We're here on a Tuesday. you and I will be back on Sunday, kind of doing a recap of everything from kind of a dynasty perspective. We'll talk some redraft too, obviously, because the landing spots are going to be so, so important this year.

because Tom, as Tom knows and everybody knows, it's not one of those classes where there is, like, transcendent talents at the wide receiver position, you know? like there's no Jamar Chase or Devonte Smith in this class. And some might, some might have Smith and Jigba similar to that. But even at receiver, it's going to be so landing spot dependent. And running back is always landing spot dependent. So we're going to have a lot to break down this weekend from a skill position standpoint. So I'm excited to do that. T-bro, I know you're deep in the weeds on the bets.

but we also had some news kind of come down the pike there yesterday that I think we probably should finally, finally. Aaron Rogers traded from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets. The Jets get, of course, Aaron Rogers. There's a pick swap in the first round. The Jets go back to picks. They get the 15th selection and a 2023 fifth round pick, which is 170 overall this weekend. the Packers will move up to 13 in that pick swap, get a 2023 second round pick.

So this year, their 42nd overall pick, and then a sixth round pick and a conditional 2024 second rounder that could become a first rounder with some playing time stipulations on Mr. Rogers. So I'll just throw it out to you guys initially. Tom, you're our guest. What do you think of finally this trade culminating? between the Jets and the Packers. It was a long time coming. It always felt like it was going to get done here before the draft.

Teams try to get these deals done so they can swap picks. And I thought it was interesting. The Packers moved up two spots. The Patriots are in front of them. They have some needs that potentially receiver there. Packers aren't known for drafting receiver in the first round. But, you know, they're starting basically a rookie quarterback. The receiving core is pretty weak.

outside of Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs had some spots last year, but could be a Jackson Smith and Gigba spot, could be a Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer's spot. So I thought that was interesting. I think I even brought it up on this podcast. The last time I was on, just getting extra picks. Maybe if they don't draft in the wide receiver in the first round, maybe they could use some of those picks.

There's a guy like DeAndre Hopkins out there. I think that, you know, they're getting some cap relief as well with Aaron Rogers coming off the books so they could take on somebody that's a little bit higher price wide receiver. So I think that's something that we could be looking for on Thursday and Friday, not necessarily the Packers M.O. But those were my quick reactions for the Packers side of things. What did you think about the trade Joe for the Jets side of the side of things? I mean, I thought they gave up a little bit more than I expect they would have to. but they were they were completely pot committed.

I mean, Joe Douglas was asked point blank. God, it was probably at the combine. He was asked point blank. Like, what do you think about? What about Lamar Jackson, you know? And he said, well, we're not going to negotiate in bad faith, essentially with the Packers. So, I mean, I'm sure a lot of GMs around the league are glad that he's a man of his word.

But it kind of limited his eyes. options here. They had to get this done. I mean, they're burying Zach Wilson in public. I mean, Garrett Wilson's happy about Aaron Rodger. Garrett Wilson, I saw yesterday retweeted the Schefter tweet about the, I don't know. I don't know why I found that just so funny. Garret Wilson's in there hitting the retweet button. He's like, here, here, I got, I got Aaron Rogers. But you guys see this news. More than I expected they would have to. It is kind of easy for. them to justify it. Look, Aaron Rogers is one year removed from back-to-back MVP's.

So did his play just fall off a complete cliff like Russell Wilson? I don't think so. A large part of that can be tied to the fact that the Packers' offensive line was banged up and he lost Devante Adams, which is kind of a big deal. The Jets have better receivers than the Packers. did, of course, one of them being Alan Lazzard, who Rogers personally basically demanded the Jets sign. I think it's a big win for the Packers. I think it's a win for the Jets simply because the Jets are relevant.

Yeah, I had my Jets fans texting me yesterday. They're fired up. They're fired up about this. Like, my aunt's a Jets fan who, she grew up with a Joe Namath poster on her wall. I think that was like her first crush was Joe Namath. And she does not like Aaron Rogers at all. But she threw in a butt. He's good.

So, yeah, even Jet fans who like don't like Aaron Rogers are like, you know. Hey, that was like Ben Rothelberger with the Steelers for a lot of years. He wins a lot of football games. And, yeah, we'll put aside the other stuff. But yeah, the man. can play some football. I'll say, uh, the odds didn't really move. These were already kind of baked in, plus 1,400 to win the Super Bowl now. Uh, that was, you know, when the, you know, the, when he went on McAfee and said that he was going the line, you know, the lines had already moved at that point.

So I do think they're a little bit overvalued, uh, nine and a half win total, uh, juice to like my, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it was like minus 120, minus 130 at most books. but I will say he's kind of a creature habit. He needs to get used to his receivers. I think that was a big downfall of the offense last year. He really had a rapport with Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb. We know Alan Lazard will be in New York this year. But it sounds like he's going to be willing to participate in offseason activities.

I think that is something that we need to watch. He did not participate any of that stuff last year. He was off doing his thing in California. going in caves or whatever else he was doing. But it sounds like this year moving to a new team that he's going to be willing to start to build a rapport with these guys in the off season, which is going to be critical for this team.

Yes, Malunking. Yeah. No, I think it might have been Rapoport or even Schaefter said Aaron Rogers' first practice with the Jets is going to be in the coming days. So, like, yeah, that's really important. He was going through the motions last year. I guess he didn't, he didn't really have the F you mentality that he had when they drafted Jordan Love anyway and kind of spurred him to back to back MVP's. I wonder if he'll have a little bit of that this year. It is hard to shake the vibes that just like the Broncos, the Jets just traded a premium to be the third best team in their division.

Look at the defenses he has to go against now compared to what he used to go against in the NFC North. is head and shoulders better than what he's coming from. You know, in the Broncos case, they were the worst team in their division. I think the Jets roster is too talented for that. But the Jets kind of backed themselves into a corner. They had to do this move. They weren't going to be on Lamar Jackson. They had no interest in Jimmy Garoppolo, it seemed, once this Aaron Rogers thing kind of went down the wire.

So look, the Jets are better for it. And from a rankings perspective, this is a fantasy. podcast, of course. I already had Tom and Drake, I already had Garrett Wilson in my second round. I have him, I have him 20th overall. I was ranking the New York Jets based on the assumption that Aaron Rodgers was going to be their quarterback. So I really didn't make a whole lot of adjustments here. Two points. One, I think we could all be very, very low on Alan Lazard, because that's his guy. He came over. He got paid. And there's nothing written that says, he has to now target Garrett Wilson, you know, 250 times.

Nothing says that. Like, Lazzard is his boy. And also, are we getting the Aaron Rogers last year of his 26 touchdowns? And, oh, by the way, his year 35 and 36 when he only threw 25 and 26 touchdowns, are we really thinking at 40 years old? We're going to get those outlier 37, 48 touchdown seasons when he won the MVP. Like, I think you, like you said, you traded a premium to get a guy who's not even going to throw you 30 touchdowns this year.

But for this Jets and this defense, maybe that's good enough. But can you outscore Buffalo and Miami and then everybody else in that AFC? I'll have you know that they currently have from a talent perspective, Sands Josh Allen, in my opinion, a better offense than the Buffalo bills. Let's just look like, I mean, Miami, Miami's receiver court is obviously ridiculous. But look, Buffalo has Stefan Diggs. And, you know, this was the point that Greg Cosell made a lot. Josh Allen was masking a lot of deficiencies with that offense.

So I think the Jets see their roster and are like, we have a lot of ability here. We just didn't have the guy to drive the car. Now they got the guy to drive the car. Yeah, I don't think they want him to be the guy that throws 40. touchdowns. They got a defense that can win him a lot of games. We're going to have Breece Hall who was on the verge of being a top five running back last year. If he wasn't already, he was on a tear before he tore his ACL. I think they would be quite happy with a guy that is throwing 25 to 30 touchdowns. And he gets back to, you know, his low, you know, low I&T rate.

You know, he was up up at two and a half per two point two percent last year, which is real high for him, get back to, you know, just throwing five or six interceptions, keeping the ball safe. And, you know, getting that 30 touchdown mark, I think they'd be quite happy with the defense that they have and with the running game that they should have this year. Well, let's talk about what we're here to talk about. And it's betting on the NFL draft. I'm looking so forward to this, Mr. Broley, because Thursday night, not only is it the NFL draft, it's the first night of my golf league.

So I will be slamming down IP. on the golf course, making bets, everything that we go over here on the show, I'm going to put in on my phone and lay some money on. And I'm just going to watch the money come in and I'll be just, the drinks will be on me all Thursday night, thanks to the grinder. So let's start right at the top. Carolina's on the clock. We're going to use fan duel for most of this folks, just for reference. Bryce Young is minus 1,200 to be the number one overall pick. I mean, is there any way you think this goes sideways and they throw a curveball and it's C.J. Stroud or we know it's Bryce Young here. You don't even really have to bet it because you're not going to win any money.

Yeah, it opened up basically when the Panthers moved up to number one. The thinking, the conventional thinking was that Frank Reich has this prototype that he wants at quarterback, big and dirty. If you look back at the Colts quarterbacks over the last few years, Jacoby Preset, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, they all fit a mold. And everybody kind of thought CJ Stroud was that guy. And he moved, he was minus 300 for basically a good three or four weeks. And things started to turn in early April. Chris Mortensen was really the one who kind of, you know, started to, started that trickle. when he said on one of the ESPN shows that, you know, he's hearing Bryce, Bryce Young number one.

And more, it's not a guy that's going out there spouting off anything that he's hearing. So people started to hear that. That was even a discussion on Twitter that day that, oh, man, one thing out there can really flip the odds. But that's these markets, just a little bit of information or even just a, you know, a big bet or two can move these markets. And ever since then, it's been Bryce Young pretty heavily favored. You know, it was only minus 200, minus 300 up until a few weeks ago. And over the last week here, things have really settled in where it looks like Bryce Young is, is the guy to the guy here for the Carolina Panthers of the visits.

That's when he canceled the rest of his visits. That was kind of the final nail in the coffin. The Panthers last week said, you know, they said that they didn't tell him that. But, you know, I think people probably got the idea that somebody, somebody got in his ear that said, you don't have to worry about sliding down the draft board. You're going off the board. What size shirt do you wear, kid? What size jersey?

It's a huge. What do you want on the back? We got it. Yep. Yeah, the Devante Smith size jersey for Bryce Young. I, you know, I think a lot of this kind of came to the, the Peyton Manning versus Ryan Leaf kind of debate, although none of these guys, I don't want to say they're on the same level of process. is Peyton Manning.

And while, of course, Bryce Young had the deficiency of his size, it feels like the other discussions were trying to talk, trying to talk yourself out of Bryce Young, and they just couldn't get there. I thought, I've said all along, I thought the team that passed on Bryce Young was going to eventually regret passing on Bryce Young, and it doesn't look like anybody's going to pass on Bryce Young at this point. So I think we could probably move on from this one since this one's been kind of cut and dry, I think, from, for the last couple of weeks. Although I got to say, although it's got to feel like to Texans fans that they passed on

on with number one, wouldn't that stupid week 18 game against the Colts that cost them the chance. Hey, I'll take it. I had a Chicago Bears worst record last year, 12 to 1. I was a very happy man early January, whenever the Texans somehow. I won that game, but now it's coming back to haunt that franchise. Lovie Smith obviously got canned right after that. And it's not been a great couple of months for the Texans, even though they got a bunch of picks early in the draft. So number two is the Houston Texans.

Now, Houston, let's be honest, Houston needs a quarterback. But there's been this smokescreen guys out there being led through the media. I think, you know, they're really feeding Schaefter, you know, friend of fantasy points, Adam Schaefter. I think a lot of stuff because we see him on air. Don't be so sure Houston's taking a quarterback here at number two. And, you know, they do have another pick down at 12. But on the draft king, or excuse me, Fanduel, Will Levis is plus 210,

C.J. Stroud plus 300. And then you can throw in a Will Anderson. You can throw in, it was a Tyree Jackson. there's some options here at number two. Tom, do you think that the Texans really bypass quarterback and go defense here? Maybe even trade the pick. I think it is an option. I think these GMs, they're not, I don't think they're completely sold on one of these other

quarterbacks, you know, that we're seeing Stroud fall down. They're really into these, the S2 test, apparently. And once you select a quarterback, you kind of start your own clock, you know, You have four or five years to get things going in the right direction. And if you pass on the quarterback early in the draft, maybe that, you know, stops your clock for another year. The pressure isn't necessarily on. I mean, but I'm with you.

Like, how do you don't get the, I know the Texans have picked early in the draft the last couple of years. They've been one of the worst teams. But you're not going to continue to get these opportunities to draft at the top of the draft and potentially land one of these, you know, top three or four quarterbacks. I think you've got to take your chance, and it looks like it's going to be Will Levis, if they do. There's also a possibility somebody trades up here.

There has been some smoke here, but they could go a number of different directions. If I had to bet on something, I would go with Levis. I think that they, I don't love it either. Levis is my fourth quarterback out of these guys. But just based on everything that we're hearing, and, you know, Richardson does not seem to be in the picture here. at number two.

They don't seem to love Stroud. Maybe that's a smoke signal, but. What's wrong with C.J. Stroud? Joe, you're a big 10 guy, right? You watch tons of big things. That's what's wrong with. DJ Stroud is legit good. That's what's wrong with C.J.

Stroud. No Ohio State quarterback has ever been good. I mean, but let's be honest. That fold under pressure. I don't know about this S2 test. They play with the best receivers every year. I mean, literally his receiving court at Ohio State will be better. I mean, that receiving court would legitimately be one of the best receiving court.

No, they would be the best in the NFL. They're going to have, you know, Marvin Harrison's son who's going to be a top five pick. Jackson Smith and Jig, by the only reason he's falling into the teens is because he didn't play last year because of hamstring injury. Otherwise, he'd be a top 10 pick. Garrett Wilson, rookie of the year. And Chris Alave, who was the runner up for rookie of the year. I mean, it's literally, it would be better than any receiving core in the league here in the next like two to three years.

Guys, I have to throw this out there, by the way, because we're talking betting on the NFL draft and, oh, I would bet number two. Every place I'm looking does not have their top five draft picks odds on the board right now because of Reddit. Yeah, I was wondering what was the news here? Because I see Tyree Wilson's plus 430 now. there's been some line movement. Reddit had on our sports book one hour ago, a gentleman by the name of sale agreeable 2834, could be a young lady, I'm not sure,

posted that Will Levis is plus 4,000 to be the number one overall draft pick, and he is telling friends and family that Carolina is going to draft him. So all the sports books were getting hammered on this and decided to take the lines off the board. Oh, my God. Yeah, this is Pete disinformation season. If Will Levis could play the Mac every week in the NFL, he'd be in the Hall of Fame tomorrow.

But they don't. And, you know, Will Levis. Joe, you're a Penn State guy. Will Levis couldn't get on the field for Penn State for a few years. And look, I'm, you know, they got to a point. Tom's a Penn State guy, too, by the way. Oh, absolutely. It got to a point where, you know,

there is like this, oh, should Penn State have kept Levis? And then all of a sudden you realize they probably wouldn't have been a whole lot better with them. I mean, they won the Rose Bowl this year. I mean, were they going to do anything more than that with Will Levis? I don't think so. And there is a legitimate argument. And I was reading, you know, Bob McGins draft piece up at GoLong TV. And that was part of the Scouts evaluation.

Now that doesn't necessarily mean, you know, Joe Flacco got. benched at Pitt, you know, like he couldn't beat out Tyler Polko at pit. So like that doesn't mean a guy can't go somewhere else and have huge success. Look at Joe Burrow. But it is part of the evaluation. Yeah, I mean, you look at Will Levis and it's not, this isn't the Will Levis shown. He to me is a guy who everyone just wants to look at the body type and they want to look at comparables. And to me, this is a big draft for comps. Everyone's saying, well, this guy, it comps to this guy. This guy comps to that guy.

Well, that's great in all because, you know, we're trying to fill airtime. But who is he really? Like, is he a legitimate player? Like, you know, I see people saying, oh, maybe Will Levis has a little Carson Wentz in him. Like, Carson Wentz is way better than Will Levis could ever dream to be in college. And Carson Wentz right now has a step out the door of the NFL. Like, I don't know. I don't buy it.

He didn't play good in any big games. get he was on a terrible team and he was a little beat up, but I'm not staking my franchise on this kid who, I mean, show me when he was ever good. At least Anthony Richardson, you could say, hey, he's electric athletically and played in the SEC, you know, and had a couple of good games against some big time competition. You can't say that about Will Levis.

I'm not staking my reputation on this kid. I'm with you guys. He's my fourth guy. I will say on the positives. Let's give him some positives here. He, you know, he's, the NFL is moving more towards these dole threat quarterbacks. He showed that he could do that.

He couldn't really do it last year behind his offensive line. It was a complete mess. He lost a lot of his weapons. He did, did play in up like a pro-style offense. I know that's been one major positive for him coming into the league here. You know, prototypical size. He apparently tested really well with the S2. So there are some positives here, but yeah.

Just not enough production for me at the college level. When things got a little bit rough last year, I'll give him some positive that he was playing through injuries and wanted to be out in the field last year. But things started to add up against him and, you know, he couldn't succeed. So you land with a team, you know, this pick inside the top five. Typically you're going to be playing in some rough situations. We'll see if he can develop in probably adverse situation there.

Let me throw this at you guys. Let's have some fun. These are total number of players at that position drafted in round one. I'm going to throw these at you guys. Let's make some money. All right. 2023 NFL draft. Total number of quarterbacks drafted in round one.

Again, this is according to Fandual Sportsbook. The over is 4.5 at minus 160. The under four and a half is plus 120. So really the vibe here is, do you use? see five quarterbacks being drafted in round one. So Hendon Hooker would likely have to be drafted at the end of round one to make this pay off. Joe, let's start with you. I would take the under, but the thing that obviously scares me is the old Lamar Jackson situation, a team that has a high to mid second round pick trading back into the first round simply so they can get the fifth year option.

And of course, Hennon Hooker will be 74 years old when his fifth year option is to be exercised. But as I sit here 12 years older than he is. But that's the thing that scares me. We're getting some of the Hendon Hooker hype. You know, but the thing that the thing that I keep coming back to is the fact that I essentially won a big bet last year by Matt Corral not being a first round pick. And we're like, oh, is Matt Corral going to go in the first round? is Desmond Ritter going to go in the first round? And none of these guys even went in the second round.

So, like, are we just trying to talk ourselves into quarterbacks being drafted in the first round or at the back end of the first round? Because it's more fun that way. You want to see what team takes a big swing. I'm not too sure about that. I don't know anything about Hendon Hooker personally. From what I understand, he's really intelligent, really smart. And he's probably killing it in interviews. and that's what teams are looking into.

But a guy who's an older prospect coming off of torn ACL in an offense that does not translate to the NFL at all, I struggle to see NFL teams falling over themselves to draft him. Yeah, I'm with you. And Joe, we do see this every year. It's at least the last couple of years. I mean, I can even, you know, Will Greer was getting some hype. And you noted the guys from last year. we get these guys every year that, you know, they start to, as the draft nears,

they start to get talked up a little bit and then they fall to the third or fourth round. So the second round has kind of been just a no man's land for quarterbacks anymore. If teams think you can be a starting quarterback at the NFL level, you're going to get selected in the first round. They want that fifth year option to, you know, we've seen it with these teams. We saw it last year with the Eagles, get to the Super Bowl with a quarterback on a rookie contract.

you can spend your money elsewhere and build up a good team around him. So if there's one team or a couple teams that think that he could be a starting NFL quarterback, he will be selected in the first round. I just have serious questions. And basically next year is a red shirt year. He's already an older prospect and the offense just does not translate at all. So very limited production even before the last couple of years. I mean, he was a quarterback at Virginia Tech and flamed out, started there,

back in like 2018. I mean, he's an old man coming into the league here. So I lean towards him not being a first round prospect. I would look at the plus price here under four and a half. But there's certainly a lot of smoke. Minnesota's been the one that's tied to them the most. But they don't have a lot of picks. They traded away a lot of picks with that Hawkinson trade.

I mean, they have some major holes at receiver after cutting Adam Thielen. defense of back is a major issue as well. Like you're going to spend your one first round pick and then you've got to sit out for a couple of rounds. And you're going to spend it on head and hooker. I just I just don't see it. So maybe there's another team that is interested in them. But I'd lean towards the under four and a half here. I'm looking at Brett Whitefield's 2023 top 150.

We have over at fantasy points.com for all of the draftable plays. players. He's got Will Levis at 22, Hendon Hooker at 23 as QB5. So, you know, not to say that's exactly how they could go in the first round, but pay attention to these teams at the back of the first round, Philadelphia, Kansas City, who could possibly trade out if somebody wants to get that fifth year option for Mr. Hendon Hooker. All right, running back. This is an easy one, because it's basically, it's Bejan plus one. Total number of running backs drafted in round one. the over one and a half is minus 130. The under is minus 102.

So I mean, hey, we're looking. Are we going to get Jemir Gibbs going off the board? There's a lot of talk about him lately. Joe, what do you think here? Do we get anyone else besides Bejan in round one? Well, I think this is interesting now. You're looking at Fandle. I'm looking at Draft Kings.

And Draft Kings right now has Jemir Gibbs minus 175 to go in the first round. So if you think that's, a valid bet, why don't you just take the running backs over one and a half? Because, I mean, now, Fandu's odds on Jemir Gibbs might be different, but we know Bijon Robinson's going round one. Like that, there is, I mean, I've heard draft Nix say like the floor for him is Washington at 16. So the bet is essentially does Jemir Gibbs go in the first round?

And it seems like a lot of folks are thinking, you know, the Bengals could be. in play for Jamir Gibbs at the end of round one. The Eagles can be in play for Jamir Gibbs at the end of round one. If the Eagles don't draft Bejan Robinson, we know what my circumstances are if the Eagles do draft Bejan Robinson. We'll get into that. Yeah. That's the next topic.

I think Jamir Gibbs in this draft class, and here's the key, we have GM saying, oh, we got 15 first round grades. I'm reading Bob McGinn's, you know, draft series. Oh, this is, you know, I've got 13, first round grade scouts. This is a bad first round club. Teams will convince themselves on a Bejan Robinson, on a Jamir Gibbs. All right, yeah, they're running backs. And God knows, you know, Twitter thinks teams should be drawn and quartered if they draft a running back in the first round. But I think teams will probably talk themselves into, oh, Jamir Gibbs,

we have a near first round grade on this guy. And the only reason he's not a first rounder is because he's a running back. Well, all of our first rounders were off the board by the 20th overall pick. We're just going to take the guy that we have an elite grade on. And so I think Jamir Gibbs is a first rounder. Yeah, this is a prop that has moved a lot in the last 24 hours. This was a Todd McShay report yesterday. The over was a big plus price up until yesterday.

He had a news and notes or rumors on ESPN Plus. And, you know, he heard that a name that, kept coming up to him talking to people over the weekend was Jemir Gibbs. Other scouts and other team personnel kept asking about where's Jemir Gibbs going to go? So he was adding two and two together that, hey, probably these teams are, you know, they want this guy. They need to know where he potentially could be going. So as Joe noted, there was quite a few teams that, you know,

stand out as potential landing spots in the back half of the first. round. You know, the Cincinnati Bengals stand out the most with the Joe Mixing situation going on right now. So over one and a half, I'm still a little, you know, these teams with running back, they're always worried about drafted them too early and, you know, you're kind of locked into them. So, but if this is a good piece of information, then over one and a half at minus 130 is still probably a pretty good price here. Gibbs is, you know, he's certainly been a guy that's been rising up here. And, you know, in that McShea report, I believe there was, you know, he was saying that

the personnel think that there's not as big a gap between Gibbs and Bejohn Robinson as the public thinks. I think that might be a little bit overblown. I think Bejohn's a pretty unique prospect at the top of this draft at the position. But Gibbs certainly has his appeal. You know, he's been getting the Alvin Kamara comps coming in 15 pounds lighter than Alvin Kamara. But, you know, he could be deployed in a separate. similar type of way.

And, you know, I can see why there's been some buzz building around him, especially in a draft where there's not a lot of first round grades for guys. Maybe one of these running back sneaks into the back half of the first round. Joe Bejan Robinson. If he goes to the Philadelphia Eagles at 10 overall, you have said on this program publicly, you will get drunk on Evan Williams and jump off your roof. it is in stone. Will it happen?

I don't think so. On Fanduil, the prop here is Bijan Robinson draft position over under 12 and a half. So if you look at those landing spots at 12 and a half, well, 12 is Houston and 13 is now Green Bay. I don't think either one of those teams

necessarily needs to draft a running back. So could he go? I don't see him going before. Philadelphia, Tennessee, Atlanta, maybe. Atlanta's the one that stands out to me. I don't know if I'm going to have to worry about Bejan, I'm even being there at 10. I think Arthur Smith's going to fall in love with the freaking guy.

And here's the thing, Atlanta just traded, you could argue Atlanta had a need. Now, personally, I think Atlanta drafting him is way less justifiable than the Eagles doing it from a roster perspective, okay? I think Atlanta needs more help. Atlanta, I mean, Atlanta is a sneaky quarterback spot. You know, they're not really getting a whole lot of buzz.

They should take Anthony Richardson. I think there's a lot of, there's a lot of lines connecting. Arthur Smith saying, this guy's my new Derek Henry. Oh, and by the way, I can use them in the passing game too. Now, here's the thing. Tyler Algier is coming off a thousand-yard rookie season. Maybe one of the quietest, he only scored three touchdowns,

so he wasn't like a great fantasy asset. But, you know, maybe one of the quietest thousand-yard rookie seasons of all time. Like nobody's really on them in dynasty. And I think the bejan specter is kind of haunting that organization right now. I don't think the Eagles are going to do it. The hope, though, is, man, I just really, really hope, Drake, you and I discussed this on a podcast last week. I just hope the Patriots don't get a shot at them because that would be,

there are very few disgusting landing spots for Bejohn Robinson from a fantasy perspective. That is one of them. Yeah, Joe, I don't think the Eagles are even in the top three. If we're looking at the 12 and a half here, I think the Falcons are the top concern. I think they might, I have a bet later. We can touch on.

I have top 10 for Nolan Smith. It was a plus price when I got it. I think he could be a landing spot for the falcons. They really need help pressuring the quarterback last year. One of the, just the worst team in the last two years, getting to the quarterback, getting sacks. I think they have much more pressing needs outside of Bejohn Robinson.

But I also, there's just these constant rumors about Derek Henry getting traded. Nope, maybe that is like the bombshell of day one. You know, Derek Henry gets moved somewhere and they take Bejohn Robinson with the 11th pick. is, you know, kind of the, you know, the next, you know, Derek Henry for the Tennessee Titans. The Texans are also apparently enamored with him at number 12. That, you know, if he's there and they get there, maybe they get their quarterback with that first pick,

Bijon Robinson could go to the Texans here. So 12 and a half is his draft position. It's juiced up minus 160, I think, or. 162 to the under. Okay. I would look towards the under. I do think he's going to find somewhere, and we've touched on it multiple times,

that there's just not a lot of guys with first round grades here. You know, Bejon, he's like the top prospect on some people's boards. He's like a consensus top five on these teams big boards, or at least like the national media. So he's widely regarded as one of the best prospects. There's not a lot of, you know, top end prospects in this year's class. So even with running back being doing, devalued in the league.

I think he still goes relatively early, we'll say in those first 12 picks. I can't wait to see maybe what the host of Legends of the Hidden Temple or guts or Double Dare come out with the night before the draft with their insider trading notes like, you know, Baja B. Emila did from, what is he, a ninja warrior. So, you know, we'll see what happens. Maybe Miami Bialik from Jeopardy has some inside info.

but we'll see with this Derek Henry news. I want to move over guys to tight end. Total number of tight ends drafted in round one. And the line here is two and a half. If you go over two and a half plus 198, under two and a half, 280, you never hear this prop any other year. But this year being, well, maybe just a down overall class in general,

but it's a really good tight end class with Mayor and Kincaid and Darna, Washington, Sam Leportod, Iowa who probably ends up going in the second round, but two and a half on all these tight ends, I'm not a guy that wants to spend a back end first round pick on the third best tight end in the class, if that's me. But I don't know, what say you guys? Tom, let's start with you. Yeah, I like the under here.

This has been moving a little bit. It had dropped down. There was some buzz that maybe Darnell Washington came would sneak into that back into the first round. Sam LaPorte has been getting some buzz. But yesterday, Charlie Campbell from Walter Football had a, you know, insider notes that both Darnell Washington and Sam LaPorteur had some ify medical, you know, there's some red flags there. So that's why this prop has been rising here. It's now minus 280 to the under here. That's the direction I look.

Even Dalton Kincaid, you know, there's some scary. I have him as the first tight end because I think he's, you know, kind of a unicorn in terms of, you know, potential as a receiver at the position. Michael Mayer is more of the complete, complete tight end who will help, you know, as a run blocker in protection. And, you know, he's certainly capable as a receiver. But there's even some red flags about Concade here. Got hurt towards the end of the last season, has a back issue, a bit of an older prospect.

So there's some red flags with some of these tight ends. So I would look towards the under here. I still like Kincaid. He's getting a plus price, plus 130 to be the first tight end off the board. I think one of these teams could fall in love with his potential in the passing game. But for the tight ends overall, I think we're going to see probably a very big run on them in the second round. I agree. You know, it's more palatable in the second round going after tight ends.

And there's certainly enough team. We got the Cal. boys. We got the Bengals. Packers need one, but the chargers have been linked to a tight end as well. So there's certainly enough teams, especially in the back end of the first round, but I think teams will hold off, wait to the second round and try to get their guy there. I agree with Tom. I think it's, I think this is the underbet. I think Tom, the tight end run is going to be like the old. And maybe this year it's the case too, the old running back run. We, if we in the fantasy industry, we're always like, waiting for day two because that's when the running backs start to come off the board and we're like, oh, you know, this team could draft one. But this year, I think tight end is going to be that position in round two where teams are like, well, we didn't, we didn't take them in the first round. We're going to, we're going to take them here in the, in the second round.

Brent Whitefield's got Dalton Kincaid at 13 overall on his board. His next tight end is actually Luke Musgrave from Oregon State at 20. who has the most medical concerns. I didn't even bring him up. He only played two games last year, and he could never get on the field of Oregon State. He's a total projection. I wonder if one of these teams at the back end of the first round,

like Cincinnati, Tom, for instance, would talk themselves into Darnell Washington from Georgia, who's got the measurables, but no production because he played behind the next great, like, NFL, the next Kyle Pitts in Brock Bowers. So we'll see if darn out Washington is one of those guys who sneaks into the first. Maybe the Bengals draft him and develop him into an offensive tackle. I could see the Bengals doing that.

I mean, that's, yeah, potentially. They need more. That was a lot of talk even whenever he landed at Georgia that he should be, you know, developed into a tight end, developed into a tackle, but he was insistent that he wanted to continue to play at tight end. And I don't think that's going to happen. But you can certainly see, I mean, he's got such a huge frame. and never really got to be much of a receiver at Georgia.

I don't know if that was necessarily all because Brock Bowers is there. He's not, you know, he's certainly athletic for his size, but not like the true burner. You know, you're not going to have loose enough hips at that size to really shake off. I do have some concerns about him as a receiver at the next level. But we'll see if he sneaks in, but I would lean towards the under. I think Mayor and Kincaid are going to go day one, but I see these teams holding off until day two for the rest of these tight ends.

All right. Last of these total number picks, and it's a wide receiver. And the number here on FanDuel is three and a half. The over is minus 106. The under is minus 125. If you go by the now just about a week old fantasy points.com staff mock draft. Joe, you were a part of this. You guys had five receivers go in the first round in this draft,

whereas they're looking here only at three and a half. Brawley, what do you think here? I don't know if you had a chance to take a peek at the staff mock, but I mean, you're trying to remember who the fifth receiver was. I can't like we got Dave and hours and at the end. Jalen Hyatt. Okay, yeah. For the bills.

I kind of like the over here over three and a half. You know, there's certainly some current. We're talking about Jemir Gibbs, maybe sliding into the first round. There's talk about Hooker. We're talking about the tight ends. There's only so many picks for these guys to sneak in here. So, but I would still lean towards the under here, towards the over here. I think, you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba is locked in.

I think he's the best, you know, he's a heavy favorite to be the first wide receiver taken for a good reason. I think he is the first wide receiver taken in the mid-teacher. teams there somewhere. Certainly enough teams between like the Texans, Packers, Patriots, right in that range, you would think might want to grab them there. Jordan Addison, I gave out a prop on him under 23 and a half. He has links to the Los Angeles Chargers, the wide receivers coach, was working at Maryland, recruited him to go there. He was set to play there. He went to pit, you know, later in his recruitment. So Addison followed him to pit.

you know, I have an article linked in that write up that, you know, they're like father and son. So I could really see Jordan Addison potentially landing with Los Angeles. They've been linked to really needing a wide receiver or tight end, really trying to maximize Justin Herbert's window here before, you know, he gets his big extension here very soon. Zave Flowers is the one. He's been all over the map here in the first. Some people absolutely love him. some see him kind of falling out of the first round. Patriots are apparently enamored with him.

I know Hanson loves him. He's talked about a lot. I know. John loves him as well. Quentin Johnson's another guy who's been all over the map. There was a lot of buzz that he might be the guy that falls out of the first round. But I think that's starting to come around here late in the process. There's just so many small receivers in this class.

Quentin Johnston's one of the bigger ones who you can play on the perimeter with no worries. He did play small at times. I think Scott Barrett, he really hammered that home in his article. He didn't really play up to that size. But I'm thinking some teams think they, at least there's a projection there that they can work with something. So his number has been, it's been coming back here. It looks like maybe like a team like the Giants I linked in my article who have a bunch of smaller receivers. Could really use a bigger receiver like Quentin Johnson.

So I see those four guys sneaking into the first round. here. So I would look at the over three and a half. And we're getting a little bit better price here at minus 106. There has been some action towards the under here. I think a lot of it is connected to that Gibbs piece that if Gibbs is going to sneak into the first round, that means maybe one of these wide receiver sneaks out. But I'll take the over still. I have no read on this whatsoever. Bob McGinn's piece, I know I've referenced it a lot, but it's an influential draft piece every year where he talks to the anonymous scouts and there's scouts in there and there's always hyperbole in that which which i always have to i i think scouts love the fact that there's no

filter on that article but there's guys who said it's the worst wide receiver class that they've seen um and that scares me and i think like what tom was saying you know a lot of these guys are small so many of these guys have like a major deficiency and you know jaylin high all his production comes out of slot fades, you know, where he has 20 yards of cushion. How do you project that to the NFL? You know, they, at Zay Flowers is small. Jordan Addison is small. We, we saw, I mean, I don't think Jordan Addison's Devante Smith, but Devante Smith is small,

and he's an elite NFL receiver. I don't know if people view him as that same level of prospect. Devante Smith won a Heisman trophy, but I have no read on this whatsoever. I know Jackson Smith and Jigba is going in round one. And if you were to tell me no other wide receivers drafted in the first round, I mean, that's probably a plus 1,500 outcome. But it wouldn't be the, it wouldn't be the most shocking thing to happen in NFL draft history. I think a lot of teams, too, have shown us in the past few years at wide receiver.

They're not afraid to kind of just make us scratch our heads and go, this guy? Really? he's the first receiver off the board like okay whatever you guys want to do i like quentin johnston to go in the first round i know uh i think you have a prop on him uh tom you love him going to the new york giants i really like that call they need someone with size he's a big kid at six three and he would perfectly slot into that lineup because we know kennie galaday is dead darius slayton is you know your week 13 waiver wire. Everyone's injured, you know, addition.

But I like that call for you right there. Yeah, he also has a prop at under 26 and a half, plus 132 on Fandall, which, you know, if you're looking for a little bit, you know, a little bit of a safer bet and you get more outs, you know, with the teams picking in front of them. I gave out a prop. I think Minnesota's, I have them taking wide receiver at 23. Kind of touched on that a little bit earlier. they don't have a ton of picks.

They have Jalen Rieger as their number three receiver right now, which is never good. And they played 11 personnel, 74% of the time last year. That means you're going to have Galen Rieger on the field that much. That's not good. You don't want to wait until later in the draft. You don't have a ton of picks.

You traded away a bunch of them in the T.J. Hawkinson deal. So I think they are in prime position to take a wide receiver. Ravens are still in a prime position to take wide receiver. they did get Odell Beckham. They need defense back as well, but they could certainly still take a wide receiver. Chargers are in a spot where they want to upgrade for Justin Herbert. We touched on the teams in the middle of the first round there

with the Packers, Texans, and Patriots. So there's certainly enough wide receiver needed teams. Maybe if you're looking at the Quentin Johnston one, maybe go under 26 and a half as well. Maybe do like a little sprinkle on that Giants 1 plus 1,000, and then a full bet on that Quentin Johnson under 20. six and a half. The first wide receiver drafted,

I don't know if we touched on this specifically, but we're talking wide receivers here. Smith and Jigba is minus 430 to be the first wide receiver drafted. I just mentioned that sometimes teams get a little cute. Maybe they don't want a slot guy and they want someone a little bigger. You know, Quentin Johnson's plus 1100, Addison's plus 1,000, Zayflowers, plus 650. You guys think there's any chance one of those three jump Smith and Jigba

to be the first receiver off the board? I think Jackson Smith and Jigbo is probably the best best bet. I just don't see it. I mean, maybe some team, I was saying the Patriots apparently love Zay Flowers. They do pick 14 overall. Maybe that's the one spot, I would think. And we know they have no idea what they're doing when they're drafting wide receivers. Exactly.

So they might, maybe they'll take Josh Downs at 14. I don't know. But maybe that would be the one guy. I would consider plus 650 a little bit a little bit of a long shot but you know the patriots sometimes do this too we never know what they're going to do in the draft and they'll send out singles you know wasn't another Boston college guy a couple of last year was Zion Johnson they were apparently in love with him and they went completely off the board with the the division two guy so maybe maybe zay flowers plus 650 650 but I would probably stay away from this and look at JSN. I think he's going to be the first one to go. All right, let me just throw some of you. Brawley's best bets at you. Again, FantasyPoint.com, folks, this is where you find all this great information. This is why you need to be a subscriber to FantasyPoints.com.

If you go to Underdog Fantasy, throw some money on there, do some best ball bets. As soon as the draft is done and he say, hey, now I know where these kids are going to play. I want to do a best ball draft. If you use our code, Fantasy PTS, we will match your first time to deposit up to $100. And oh, by the way, for just five bucks, once you do that, we're going to give you a subscription to FantasyPoints.com to read Tom and Joe and Graham and Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield and John Hanson, everybody's great work over there

at FantasyPoint.com. So Tom, some of this stuff here, you have Cincinnati Bengals first to draft a defensive back. You already laid some money on this. It's plus 280. It's Caesars. Why do you like that pick so much? Yeah, I just. I think that's a glaring weakness for them.

They want to get through. There's so many good quarter. We went through. Aaron Rogers is joining the AFC. We talked about that at the beginning of the podcast here. There's just so many good quarterbacks in the AFC. They want to get through Patrick Mahomes every year. They lost a lot of talent in that secondary.

Both their starting safeties are gone. A woozier. There was some, you know, some scary, not scary, but he might not be exactly on the timeline. that they want. So I think they have some pressing needs in the secondary. So I thought that at plus 280. I touched on the Vikings one if we're looking at team bets.

I think a sneaky one. I gave it out plus 2,000. It's been bet down to like plus 900 now. So it doesn't have nearly the value it did have was the Patriots to take a quarterback. There's a lot of smoke here recently. The athletic had a piece. there's a major rift between Mac Jones and Bill Belichick. Mac Jones was like going outside of the organization for advice on how to handle Matt

Patricia and Joe Judge last year. Obviously there's not a lot of trust on the Mac Jones side of things if he's going outside to, you know, talk, get outside counsel. There was rumors from pro football talk that they had shopped him around. They bring Will Leveson last potential day to do a visit. last week. So maybe they're a sneaky team to look at quarterback here. And maybe Mac Jones really is on the market. Speaking of potential draft day trades. So I still, it doesn't have as much value as it once did at plus, you know, 20 to one odds. But I wouldn't be shocked to see

the Patriots do something like that on draft day. Well, obviously, Tom, I think the Patriots, they're such a wild card to me. Because you can never predict Bill Belichick. That's why the Bejohn Robinson thing scares the bejes out of me. That, by the way, that would be my least favorite pick in the entire first round if that could happen. Because this is such a kind of a weak fantasy class in general. Bejohn Robinson is this all-time prospect landing in a spot where he would nuke the value of Ramandre Stevenson, who's a young running back who finished as the RB8 last.

year would just, oh, man, anybody but the Patriots draft. And you know, James Robinson would somehow sneak in there and get the goal on carries. Yeah. I can just see, I don't know why I see it with Bejohn. He's going to end up in like Washington. Like some team that just like, they were the betting favorites for a while until, you know, the last couple of weeks. That was kind of the spot where they thought Ron Rivera.

He loves to run the football. So that was kind of the top spot. for a long time was Washington. Oh, my God. And you know who else? Who else loves having two running backs? Dougie Peterson in Jacksonville. Throw him in with E.T.

Just blow up both their values. Let's go. Nukem's not last in that. No, he's not getting to 24. I don't think Jacksonville will trade up for him. Let's get nuts. I think they want to get nuts. I do want you to Carter to Seattle, by the way.

We've plus 500. I think that's super sharp at fifth overall. I think that's a play that can easily happen there and you can make some money in them. Yeah, that one, I think it's even higher odds now. There's, because there's been some smoke that Will Anderson could fall in the draft. So I think that they would, the Seattle would prefer Will Anderson. But so that one, I think it even has better odds. I can't pull it up here.

Will Anderson is just good. People don't like him because he's been good forever. And it's just not sexy anymore to say, oh, Will Anderson just because he's good. It's like drafting Mike Trout in your fantasy baseball league. You're like, oh, yeah, I guess I'll take Mike Trout and he'll be great. But no, I want the new sexy name out there. Yeah, I don't know that they're exactly comparable, but I did see a lot of comparisons maybe that, you know, him and Aidan Hutchinson last year.

Like they're both like the shore things. You know what you're going to get. You're going to get a lot of production out of them. But, you know, Tyree Wilson is kind of, you know, this year's Trayvon Walker, who has all the ententee, you know, all the freak skills and the higher projection

and those two are very comfortable, I think, to last year's duo at the top of the draft with the edge rushers. So that was one I gave out was Tyree Wilson plus 400. It's been back and forth. It seems like the Texans and the Cardinals

might both prefer Tyree Wilson, but those two teams are also potentially, you know, Cardinals definitely want to trade out of number three. and Houston. Nobody knows what the hell they're going to do at number two. So I like the value of gone at plus 400 with Tyree Wilson, but it's been kind of sucked out of it now that it's kind of a coin toss between him and Will Anderson.

I believe I call him Tyree Jackson earlier. Yes, you did early in the pot. I wasn't going to correct. I believe that's an old Syracuse wide receiver. I wasn't that the Buffalo tight end who or who am I thinking of? He's with the Eagles now. Yeah. He was the

he was the Buffalo quarterback who plays tight end for the Eagles. Yeah. Yep. All right, boys, before we get out of here, give me one crazy thing that you want to see happen on draft night. Joe, let's start with you. One crazy thing that I want to see happen.

I know one crazy thing. Joe, jumping off a roof. Well, so if Bejohn Robinson gets drafted by the Eagles at 10 overall, I will get drunk and jump off my roof, but I'm going to do it. I'm going to make sure I have the setup and I have everything kind of perfectly. Tom, Tom's coming down for a golf outing. Oh, gosh. We're going to do it that weekend?

That is the weekend that I have determined I will get drunk and jump off my roof because it gives me adequate time to do the setup and to make sure I'm mentally prepared to do it. I'm not just going to, I don't have a pool and I'm not just going to, I'm not dumb enough to jump off a 14 foot roof onto a hard ground. Let's make sure we get our rounds of golf in first. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You like mangle a limb or something. Yeah. So I'm thinking like an air mattress or something like that underneath, but it will be intimidating

anyway. Okay, so one crazy thing that I want to see happen in the NFL draft. Let's, I would like to see. an unexpected team trade up for Anthony Richardson. Okay. Maybe that was my. Maybe Tampa Bay from 19? It's possible, yeah.

I'll go back to my Patriots taking a quarterback in the first round. I think that would be quite interesting. Maybe they're the team that trades up and gets Anthony Richardson. And I do think we're going to see one of these, at least one of these quarterbacks fall out of the top 10. It once looked like, you know, we could see four quarterbacks go. in the first four picks or maybe the first five picks, but it does feel like we're going to get one of these quarterbacks to fall a little bit.

So we could see a, I wouldn't be surprised we see a team move up and grab one of these quarterbacks in that like 10 to 11, 12 range. I would not be surprised by that at all. I'm excited for a veteran player to get traded like we saw last year with A.J. Brown. Maybe this year it's on the running backs. That could be DeAndre Hopkins. But I want to see me, Joe Mixen, Delvin,

Cook, Derek Henry. I want to see the fancy world. Mac Jones turned out of the year. We saw it twice. I was actually going to ask Tom that and we should discuss just really briefly, Drake, since this is your prediction. Is any of these first round picks traded

for a veteran player on draft? Not a running back. God, no. I mean, yeah, I could see that. I mean, based on the class. I mean, you know, like, There's been rumors out of Buffalo that Stefan Diggs is not happy.

And it has been kind of temperamental. Imagine someone sneaking in and saying, we'll give you a one and some other stuff because he's already got his contract to Buffalo. And Buffalo can add a couple of pieces. The Buffalo traded digs. They would have nothing left at receiver for Josh Allen. We don't want to see that. No.

Never know. You never know. Maybe Seattle drafts. somebody and then maybe they move DK. I don't know. We're getting crazy here, you know. We get drunk and jump off roofs with Joe. But guys, thank you so much. It's been awesome.

Good hour of betting talk, folks. So go over to FantasyPoint.com. Read all of Tom's best bets. Check out all his great work there on Twitter at Tom Brawley. Of course, Joe is at FG underscore Dolan. I'm a Drake Fantasy. Thanks, everybody, for hanging out with us today on the two-point stands. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast.

Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.