Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Draft Props | Two-Point Stance

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

Betting on NFL Draft props has never been easier or more fun. The Two-Point Stance crew welcomed Fantasy Points Betting Analyst Tim Brolley to discuss his best plays for Thursday’s opening round. From who is selected second overall to which running back comes off the board first, this pod is down to win you some cold hard cash! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's NFL draft week. Some will say the draft starts at pick four. No, no. When you're betting, every pick matters. We're going through the entire first round of the NFL draft with our guy Tom Broly talking best bets for Thursday night's first round. Let's go, baby. It's getting the two-point stance.

All across the fantasy universe and wherever you may be, welcome to draft week. It's the two-point stance powered by fantasy points.com. I'm your boy, Brian Drake. ready to make some cash. I know you guys are too. Maybe your tax return just came in. There wasn't as much in it as you wanted to. Let's make your honey at home a little happier and make some cash this week because

there is money to be made with my man, Joe Dolan, the managing editor of FantasyPoints.com. And Joe, we're bringing back Broly. He's doing so well grinding these props. I hear him on morning shows all across America. We just did the kind of get your feet wet version of this last week. Now we're diving in full steam. We got Schaefter dropping nuggets. You know, Peter Schrager's getting in his mock out there.

I think we can really make some hay of what's going to happen here in the NFL draft. What's up, brother? Dude, I'm doing just fine. I'm ready for the NFL draft. I've been not grinding away the way Tom has on props because I live in a Philistine state here in South Carolina. But you can still find you.

Oh, that's right. Pennsylvania doesn't allow it. But I can still find my way around, around on some offshore books. So it's just great, Drake, to sit here with the NFL draft coming up. And especially when you have a draft that is going to be T-Bro as fantasy-relevant. Like, I mean, wide receivers out the wazoo, there's going to be like 20 receivers drafted on the first two days of the NFL draft. The day two running backs are going to, there's starting to get a lot of hype on Jonathan Brooks and how teams feel about him. And then, of course, the quarterback class, basically every one of these quarterbacks, at least the big four quarterbacks, can move.

So we're talking about guys who are going to land in spots where they're going to be able to start right away, get fantasy relevant. And, you know, it's fun to talk about where these guys might end up. There's going to be a lot of maneuvering going on here in the draft. And Tom, I know you've kind of broken down some scenarios here with some of the bets that you think. Yeah, Joe, you're completely right. You're going to be hearing that a lot on Thursday night about the record for the most offensive players selected in the first round was previously 19. I think we're going to go to cruise past that on Thursday night. I believe the over under.

I don't see it up on Fandall anymore. But it was sitting, I believe, at 20 and a half was the over under total. And the money was towards the over. So we're going to see a lot of offensive players selected. Obviously, the draft is loaded at the quarterback position up at the top. Offensive linemen is, you know, we're going to see 10, maybe 11 offensive linemen go. receivers loaded up at the top and even a generational type of tight end in Brock Fowar. So this is an exciting draft for fantasy football.

We're going to be very busy, rating it all up for the site and breaking it down on our YouTube and on our podcast. You mentioned that, Tom. Great segue. All three days of the NFL draft. We're going to be over at the FantasyPoint.com YouTube's channel. It's YouTube.com slash Fantasy Points. we're giving instant reaction to the picks. You can watch the draft along with us.

We know that's what everyone does these days. You got it up, you know, the draft on your screen, you got us on your phone, your laptop, your iPad, whatever it is. You know, Scott Barrett. Joe, you're going to be there for a little while. Brett Whitefield. I'm going to be there for a lot of while, dude. We're going to be there.

I'm going to be there all night. So it's going to be a lot of fun. And by the way, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Yes. Just to make sure you get the notifications when we're live. We're going to have post shows, Drake. We're going to be live on Saturday. well, I'm going to be on serious, but fantasy points is still going to be live,

going to be wild for the NFL draft. Absolutely. And if you guys just want to wet your whistle a little bit, I want to just give you guys the Iggy, the guru is going to be jumping on dynasty points. That's right, our great new dynasty show. Tuesday night, 930. Guru is going to be on there with Jacob Sanderson, Tommy Tipple, and the crew talking a guru rookie mock draft before everything kicks off.

Again, Tuesday, 930. Check that out over on the YouTube channel. So a lot of news came out from Chef. after and we'll get into all that. The one thing I want to lead with here, Tom, is there's some whispers out there about J.J. McCarthy and his betting odds going yesterday from plus 2,000 to now plus 1,100 to go number two overall. The betting favorite is still Jaden Daniels on Fandul.

I'm looking, he's minus 260. But whenever I hear these whispers of a player like, I'm not sure how much he really wants to go there. to me, that gives me pause. We've seen it with Eli. We saw, you know, there's John Elway. Players who don't want to be in places can find ways through their agent and back channels to say, I really don't want to be here.

I don't want to draft a guy that doesn't want to be there. Is there any kind of fire behind this smoke, Tom? And would you see anything really with these odds changing? Does that sway you at all? Or is it still Jaden Daniels number two of the commanders? Yeah, I actually gave out this morning. I read the Adam Schaefter piece and I had been leaning heavily towards Jane Daniel's going second overall.

And I gave it out at minus 143 for him to be the second quarterback drafted. Those odds have disappeared here as the afternoon has gone on here. Even Peter Schroger, not Schroger. Daniel Jeremiah was on the Pat McAfee show this afternoon, basically saying, echoing the same things that Adam Schefter was saying. Everybody in the league is saying it's Jane Daniels number two overall. So last week we saw some money flip. Daniels was up like minus 200 and like back up in this range of this minus 200 minus 250 range.

Got down to basically a coin flip between him and Drake May to be the second overall pick after the agent tweets out the thinking face emoji to a Mike Florio tweet about having the four quarterbacks in visiting at the same time. the agent has backtracked a little bit off of it as well. You know, just saying he would have rather had, you know, his, his player, Jane Daniels, you know, just a one-on-one visit. So I think they're cooling off of that a little bit. And at the end of the day, there's plenty other quarterbacks here. I think the commanders are going to take the guy that they like the most. And the tea leaves have kind of been there all along here. But we have a couple more days.

Maybe we'll get some more information. and teams have been just in general more tight-lipped over the last year or two. Even last year, teams were, I have to wonder, there's been some, you know, kind of thinking out there that, you know, maybe the whole betting aspect of, you know, the NFL is now in bed with the, you know, the gambling side of things. And we've seen some players get suspended. We saw some players last week get their indefinite suspensions. you know, they got reinstated. So there, there is some talk there that, you know, the league basically told these teams, hey, let's, you know, let's keep the leaking of information down a little bit. Well, we're not going to be tight-lipped. They say the draft starts at pick number four.

When we come back in one second, Joe Dolan's going to break down what he thinks happened when, quote, unquote, the draft begins at four. Back on the other side. Joe, I keep hearing this old terminology. It's so cliche. The Arizona is open for business at for everybody's open for business. What do we talk? You have to listen. This is so dumb. If you make an offer to a team and it's legit and we know Arizona is going to move up and

down, they did more than anybody last year. Like, yes, you're going to make that trade. But Joe, let me ask you this. If they're so open for business and I think the giants want to move up for a quarterback, I think we know the Vikings need a quarterback. Denver needs a quarterback. What do you think happens at this floor? It's very hard for me to break this down entirely.

because let's look at the consensus big board. Separating positional value, which obviously is why Caleb Williams is going to be the first overall pick. And Jaden Daniels is going to be the second. Who knows what's going to happen at three? Drake, I would push back a little bit on the cliche. I actually think the draft begins at three because the Patriots, Adam Schefter was reporting today.

They could be like this year's last year's Cardinals or they move back and then they move back up depending on, you know, depending on what they have no talent. They have no talent whatsoever. Actually, we talked about it last. week, but there's another team I like to potentially do that a little bit closer to the middle of the first round. But the Cardinals, the thing is, how often do you have the number four pick in the draft and might be able to get the guy who's number one on consensus?

And that's a really hard thing for me to overlook because it's, Marvin Harrison, Jr. is the consensus number one pick, number one guy on Big Board. Yes, there are some teams that who prefer Malik neighbors. That's what we've heard. But Marvin Harrison is generally regarded as a warpless prospect. And he's at a position of need for this. Their number one receiver right now is Michael Wilson. Their number two is great door. Basically, their best receiver is Trey McBride. You need that wide receiver. And I think it's going to be very easy for Monta Nasson Fort sitting there to say, let's just take the player. That being said, if they have Malik neighbors and Roma Dunzee, very similarly listed on their big boards,

or just a slight tier drop-off, you're going to be able to trade back to six with the Giants and get one of those guys anyway, guaranteed, unless you have two of them, and then the third, a big drop-off from that. And that's where you've got to learn what are the Chargers doing at five? Because the Chargers are, Jim Harbaugh is a complete wild card.

All right, the guy orders whole milk at a steakhouse. So he can do whatever he wants. It would not shock me at all if Jim Harbaugh says, we're staying put and we're drafting an offensive tackle and that's that. And he said that's how we want to build our team. They could trade out of that pick as well. So what the Chargers are going to do is what's going to be and Montiasonfort has a good read on what the Chargers are going to do.

I think that makes it particularly interesting for them. I don't know, Tom, what you think Arizona is up to. I still think Arizona drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. probably my favorite is probably where I would lean for them. But again, this is a team that doesn't have a whole lot of talent on the defensive side of the football. Heck, quite frankly, they don't have a whole lot of talent on the offensive side of the football either. They could go just about anywhere. And drafting the best player in Marvin Harrison makes a lot of sense.

Yeah. And I know, you know, it's been kind of made fun of a little bit today. But I do think them like going out and say this is this pick is for sale here. We got a bunch of teams here that we have the Giants potentially. We have the Denver Broncos, although that looks a little less today after they make a trade for Zach Wilson. Maybe, you know, that is kind of a signal that maybe they're not going to be too active moving up. And we discussed that last time that they don't exactly have a lot of draft capital to make a lot of big moves. But we also have the Raiders.

And then we have the Vikings sitting there with two first round picks. So this isn't a situation, even just like a couple of times. couple years ago where the 49ers, they just gave the farm to the, to the dolphins right away. They got the pick. They got situated in number three and knew they were going to get one of those quarterbacks. The Cardinals are sitting there. Hey, we're having three or four teams compete here. Maybe one of them blows us away. We move back. As you said, Joe, if they move back to six, you would think the team that's trident up, you know, the Giants are moving up to take J.J. McCarthy or Drake May at number four. So that means you're going to get one of the two, you know,

maybe you're not getting Marvin Harrison at five, but you could still get Malik neighbors at six. So if they have those two guys tiered very closely, then that makes a lot of sense. Heck, you know, we saw last draft. You know, they traded back and they moved back into number six to get their, you know, Paris Johnson. So they could move back at the Vikings straight up.

And, you know, they're sitting at 11. And maybe they use that package to move on back up to, you know, seven or eight or wherever it is to make sure they get one of those. big three wide receivers. So I thought it was a little bit interesting as well today with the Patriots. It seems, you know, pretty locked in at this point. I mean, Robert Kraft is basically, he wants a damn quarterback at number three overall. And after the Cardinal stuff came out today, that the pick is up for sale,

the Patriots started floating it out there. Maybe through Diana Rossini here, they're trying to maybe, hey, if we get the Godfather offer, maybe, you know, some team offers us four or five, first round picks. Maybe we'll sell that third, you know, that third overall pick. But it sure seems like they're going to sit and take a quarterback at this point because the owner sure as hell wants a quarterback. So just, you know, we got some posturing going on up here at the top. There certainly feels like there is going to be a big move here in the top five. The McCarthy line, it's been set at five and a half. His draft position and it's sure the close to the draft gets

here. It's, it sure feels like he's going to go in these top five. It really is crazy with me. So if we look at the who's listed on Fanduil, we go third overall, the betting favorite is Drake May. If you look back at Schefter's article, the Patriots are linked to May. The Vikings in this article say they're also high on Drake May,

who was coached in high school. I didn't realize this by their new QB coach, Josh McCown, which is a really interesting point here. But if we say he's going to go in that third hole to, New England or whoever it is. New England can't play the game, Joe, where they trade down too far because they're going to miss out. And now they're going to be holding the bag. And now they're looking at like Michael Pennix as their quarterback if they trade down too far.

I don't think you can play this game of chicken if you're New England. But here's the thing. Of the top teams in this draft, okay, which of these teams has the worst roster? Ryan Poles has made some mistakes with the Bears, but the Bears don't have the worst roster. They have a lot of offensive. They're loaded. They're loaded. Washington's got some good defensive players.

Obviously, decent. They need some help on the offensive line. Most teams do. But you've got Brian Robinson in the backfield. You know, they signed Eckler. They've got a couple of receivers. They've got option. The Giants on offense suck, but they have good defensive line talent.

So at least there's something there. They've also got Andrew Thomas, who's a franchise left tackle. The New England Patriots are the team that I think could justify the most kicking the can down the road. because that team freaking sucks, guys. They blow. And the other thing that is really just gnawing at me is the Minnesota Vikings have two-first. If the Minnesota Vikings do not come out of this first round with a quarterback,

I would be stunned. And I'd be more stunned, Tom, if it isn't one of the big four, including McCarthy in there. The Minnesota Vikings, I don't think, are standing pat and drafting Michael Pex. I don't think that's happening. So which team probably would benefit the most from picking up those multiple first round picks? In my opinion, it's the New England Patriot because they need talent. They need it across the board.

They need it on offense. They need it on defense. So I feel like that is the spot where the Patriots could really trade back, justify that, get some offensive linemen, get a receiver, get multiple offensive linemen, hell, middle of the first round, and just justify that because their roster is no good. Oh, and by the way, Jacoby Brissette is going to be able to keep that ship afloat, at least for a little bit. He's like the airtight doors on the Titanic, you know, like, eh, you know, keeping a float for a couple of hours, 90 minutes at most, Mr. Andrews. So I think that's a justifiable move, in my opinion, Tom. The Patriots trading back

from three. I know their fans don't want to hear that. And if they stand pat and take the quarterback, then they stood back and took the quarterback. I can't argue against that too much either, but they have the best incentive, I think, of any of these teams to trade down. Because while the Cardinals could also benefit from those multiple first round picks, the Cardinals could be sitting there and saying, screw it. The Patriots just traded back. Well, we'll just take the best player in the draft, and that's Marvin Harrison. Yeah, it does feel like there has been some momentum here for Michael Pennix as a first round pick. he's he's certainly moved up and he i'm starting to see him like you know mocked into that 11 12 13

range way ahead of uh bow nix on the yes than the prop markets right now that has really flipped over here the last week or two uh bow nicks is you know draft position prop is you know juiced heavily towards the over now you know he was sitting 32 and a half which is obviously you know right after the first round uh and you know he he's like minus 300 to go out outside of round at this point now. And Michael Penix is a favorite to go in the first round at this point. And the prop for over four and a half quarterbacks is, you know, minus 250 at a lot of places now. So I think there is some momentum building for Pennix. The medicals obviously are a little concerning with the two torn ACLs. But it seems like teams aren't nearly as afraid of it as, you know,

they may have been in the past, but also his age is also a factor. But it does feel like he is going to go in the first round here at some point. So I would be surprised that the Vikings aren't the ones that move up at some point. But maybe they, maybe they would be content to use both those first round picks, draft Pennix at 11 or 23 and use the extra pick to build around them. But I still feel like they are most likely the team that trades up. and they're still sitting at plus 170 to select J.J. McCarthy. So they are still the favorite to be the team that drafts him.

Well, I want to get into who we think goes where. Remember, folks, when you're drafting or excuse me, when you're betting over a place like Fanduel, we mentioned this last time, you're betting a lot of times on the position. So it's not necessarily, oh, the Giants are at six. Well, if they trade, you know, that it's going to skew things a little bit. So we're looking at overall position. And when we come back, I want to put these guys feet to the fire.

Who is going off the board in that all important number six spot currently held by the New York Giants? We know they need a quarterback. But if Malik Neighbors is there, how do you let him go? All that and more on the other side. Hang tight. Fellas, the New York Giants have a interesting roster. Gone is Saquan Barkley. We're paying all this money to Daniel Jones.

There's not a lot of talent, really, anywhere on this offense. This regime needs to get it right at the quarterback, you, okay? I think they can get out of Daniel Jones after this year. We've seen teams eat big dead money contracts. That's not the end of the world. If we were to say, hey, at number six, right, let's take J.J. McCarthy and sit him for a year

or whenever the Giants are mathematically out of it, which, you know, who knows could be around Thanksgiving. Now we get J.J. in there. Would you take J.J. at plus, 550 Joe I'll start with you or you got malik neighbors here you have no talent on the outside you might not have a tight end anymore with Darren wallet how do you have that up when you're still paying big money to Daniel Jones I mean there's a lot on the table here for New York at number six again this is one of those teams that could do whatever um and also on the table by the way for the New

York Giants Tom in kind of like a lowercase version of what I just talked about with the Patriots is if the Giants are unable to trade up to go get one of the quarterbacks, if that's what they want to do, they could decide, hey, look, our opportunity passes. Minnesota was able to outbid us because Minnesota has two first round picks this year. They were just able to outbid us. The Giants could maybe be a team that trades back a little bit and accrues some talent because they're a team that needs talent. But I still think the most likely scenario here for the New York Giants is, look, Mr. Mara, historically, you know, doesn't try to rock the team.

the boat, you know. I think the most likely thing is they try to go into the season with Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback with Malik neighbors. That's what I think the most likely scenario is. I'm right there with you. I don't see them train. Now, I think they have been devoid of a top talent wide receiver since O'Dell Beckham's injury stuff started to happen. And it's been a long time. So I know Daniel Jones is not the guy, but he also really hasn't, you know, he's been playing with less than a full deck of cards here. Let's go get him this top. flight wide receiver, you know, if it probably is Malik neighbors, or maybe it's Marvin Harrison if something crazy happens. And they could prefer a dunze, though, Tom. And that's something we don't

really know, because maybe that's just the guy they like better, but Malik Neighbors is the betting favorite to be the six-pick. Yeah. And, and that, you know, Malik Neighbors, hey, you know, if Daniel Jones, they get the final answer to, you know, like every, you know, we have 95% of the quiz already completed. We find out completely this year that Daniel Jones is out of the picture next year. Malik Neighbors will still be there, or Roma Dunzei, or Marvin Harrison for the next quarterback that they bring in through the draft or through free agency.

So I think that's the way to go here. We tried to piece it together with Darren Waller as the lead receiver last year. Those hamstrings couldn't hold up. And we had all these slot-wide receivers that they kept adding last offseason and just a just a terrible collection of receivers here. Let's go. Let's get that top wide receiver at the top of the draft here. Let's let's get a, you know, a foundational piece for our offense for the next, you know,

10 to 15 years here with the number six overall pick. And let's get that that top flight wide receiver. That's, that's personally where I think the Giants are going to go. But, you know, we'll see if they make a move up to number four. Tom, do you see any value on, on a dunzee being the pick there? at draft king's odds. A duncee is, so at the number six pick, Neighbors is the favorite at plus 150.

A duncee is plus 250 to be that pick. Is there any value whatsoever in saying, you know what, I'm going to actually put the money on Adunzee in the event that the Giants prefer him? Or is that just not a big enough gap where you're willing to go against the grain and against what the general sentiment is about New Neighbors?

Yeah, it's not a big enough. I think for me, we kind of have a big three at the receiver position, but I think it's kind of tiered pretty distinctly, though. I think Marvin Harrison, neighbors, and then a dunzee, and if this scenario kind of plays out the way we're thinking that one of these teams trades up into the top five and Marvin Harrison is gone, you know, you have your choice of neighbors and a dunzee, but I kind of, I get the impression that the Giants probably are leaning a little more towards neighbors here, just, you know, reading stuff and, you know, going through everything in the last couple of weeks.

So I would be inclined not to not go with a dunzee there. I would lean towards the neighbor side of this. Joe Shane, the general manager there, man, he is, he runs a much tighter shift than Oh my gosh. Yeah. I remember even just like the Sequin draft. I mean, there was just tons of it. Everybody knew they were taking Sequin.

Everybody knew they were taking Daniel Jones. Now, where they took DJ, I think people were a little. And then everybody. If you remember back to that draft, that was Belichick apparently wanted Daniel Jones so badly in that draft. So they made sure they, you know, they didn't want to wait until later in the draft. So they made sure to, you know, that's why it was seen as a bit of a reach. But they wanted to make sure they get their quarterback ahead of, ahead of Bill Belichick in that draft. Everybody knew they wanted Devante Smith in 2021.

And the Cowboys and Eagles swung the trade. And let me tell you, the Eagles got Devonte Smith and the Cowboys got Monica Parsons. The Giants ended up with Cadarius, Tony. So let's see we got the short end of the stick in that one. After that, after that situation, yeah, we're shutting our lips here. And Joe Shane, that's kind of a giant beat writer's thing here is like nobody knows what Joe Shane's doing here. Like so they're, they are a fascinating team. Like Arizona, yeah, they're fascinating.

But like, ultimately, I think Arizona, they could just stand pat and just take the best player in the draft. And then you have two complete lunatic teams back to back with the Chargers and the Giants. The Chargers because Jim Harbaugh is actually a lunatic. And the Giants because I don't think Joe Shane's a lunatic, but he could do literally anything. And it wouldn't surprise me at this stage, including trading back. But I'm with you. I think Drake, the most likely scenario is the Giants pick six. They draft Malik neighbors.

They try to see run it back with Daniel Jones. Maybe he's got like a Baker Mayfield resurgent season in him. Can you imagine Giant fans if they sign them to another contract after this season? But look, Daniel Jones has flashed in the past. And he didn't have opportunity to flash these past couple years because the rostered. I'm going to say this. I'm going to put some money down on J.J. McCarthy to go number six overall. Could it be to the Giants?

Remember, the Giants flirted with Russell Wilson this offseason. They've done a ton of pre-draft prep on these other quarterbacks. 22 million next year, dead cap to get out underneath Daniel Jones. In this day and age, that's not a ton is what we see all these other guys doing. So I'm going to put a little long shot money there on JJ McCarthy at six to the Giants. It gets kind of boring guys, Tennessee, Atlanta with those picks. Everyone kind of thinks they know where those teams are going with Joe Alt and then Atlanta. Let's back off here, Drake.

I know where this is the Fantasy Point podcast. But Tom, it is basically a complete toss up right now as to which edge rusher the Falcons are going to. Yeah, I actually think, yeah, I think eight's kind of. interesting, Joe. And it's all going to depend. You know, if we see the four quarterbacks go on the top, I think we're going to see, you know, two of the receivers go.

And it really feels like, oh, feels like he's been the outside of Caleb Williams, obviously, kind of the locked in guy. Like, he's like minus 140 to go seventh overall. You know, one of those were elite prospect and an elite need for the Titans. And it's like a perfect scheme fit. It's not seen. Titans have plugged like all their like, well, I mean, they plugged all their offensive holes, right?

Yes, except for that one big one. And no all is a big guy to fill that plug. And maybe Will Levis is a hole, but the Titans are being prudent here. They're trying to figure out if Will Levis is a hole or if they have something there. Yeah. Which makes eight, like kind of an interesting spot to the Dallas Turner has been kind of locked in as the Falcons pick here for a long time. I gave out a couple of weeks ago, Latu Latu, Latu,

I can't say his name, Laetu Latu, Laetu, from UCLA, major medical concerns, but he's, you know, everybody's best pass rusher in the draft. He's like a,

I saw Brian Baldinger, was breaking him down over the weekend and compared him to T.J. Watt, and, but he's got major connections to the Atlanta Falcons, coaching staff, Jimmy Lake was his recruiter, you know, a recruiter and he coached him at Washington. A perfect fit for Rahim Morris defense is that kind of, you know, stand-up edge defender. And so there's been a lot of juice over the last week that and now LATU is basically,

even with Dallas Turner to be that pick. But the Falcons are kind of sitting in a good spot here. McCarthy goes in that top, top range here. And we do think there's a tier drop at wide receiver. I also gave out Roma Dunesay plus 750 to be the eighth overall pick, thinking that we got the Jets sitting at 10. Even the Bears. We saw the Bears trade move one spot last year in the top 10.

Maybe they just move up one spot to make sure they get Roma Dunzee at number eight. Give Caleb Williams that guy. So I think eight could be a little bit of an interesting spot. And the Falcons, if they're thinking, hey, we're going to have our pick of some good defenders, even if we slide down a couple of spots, you know, can still get a lot to or turner byron murphy is another guy whose name has been gaining a lot of buzz here this uh this over this past week so uh it could be an interesting little pivot spot uh if if we do see mccarthy go early and uh the board kind of falls

with you know two to the wide receivers going and alt going seventh overall i wanted to talk about what brett whitefield said about lot lot to latu lot too because i edited his profile today um yeah quote to say that he has the most developed pass rush chops among the edge rushers in the class would be a massive understatement. He might even have the most developed pass rush arsenal I have seen in 10 draft cycles. It is incredibly rare for a player to have this many levels in his game. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Not blah, blah, blah, there's a lot of information here.

And Brett, and here's what Brett said. I can only go off the tape and data profile. I have slightly dinged him for his injury history, but he can only slightly ding him because he doesn't have access to the medicals. But even with that, he scores inside my top 10 overall and should be in the conversation for the first defensive player drafted. Tom, without the injury history, he is a top three pick in most drafts by pure talent level, is what Brett Whitefield said about Lawtu, Law too.

And when you look at like football guys around the NFL, everybody loves them. They're going to fall in love with this guy, and they are going to turn a trick on the corner to try to get their doctors. That's what I feel. So I like your bet. I saw you lay that down. We've had discussions with people around the league who are like, this medical situation is real. we also know there are going to be people who aren't going to give a flying shit about it

because look at what happened with D.K. Metcalf, a couple years ago, the Eagles wouldn't green light D.K. Metcalf, they took JJ Arthega White's side, okay? Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn't. But if you're going to look at the traits, Latu's the best pass rusher in this class, okay?

So he is, that is an interesting guy to be the first defensive player draft. Yep, I gave that out last week. Still, a lot of the books have taken it down, but I still think they're, you know, top 10 pick is out there. I gave that as well, plus 170. So, yeah, we'll see. It is a, it was a major surgery. It was the, like the Peyton Manning surgery. He had the spinal fusion. But he's had, you know, two clean years since leaving Washington. So apparently, you know,

a lot of teams weren't even at, you know, weren't even very concerned about it. So it's all depending on your risk tolerance for these teams. And lot to is a special prospect without the injury concerns, which are obviously, you know, play a big. big part of the equation, but maybe, you know, I'm thinking maybe one of these teams in the top 10, there's a chance that maybe they just, you know, they give the green, the thumbs up and they go with the, what they see on tape. I think, and this is kind of really wishcasting down the road here, that Minnesota pick at 11 is never, that's not going to be the Vikings.

That's going to be somebody else's pick. I think that pick gets moved again because if, let's say there's a chance that, that Leitu is there at 11. I think there's going to be a lot of teams in this back half of the first round. are going to say, hey, let's jump up and get our hands on this guy because maybe that's Arizona in that spot or New England, as we said, wants to move and accumulate a ton of pick. So it wouldn't surprise me to see him go at 11 to a edge hungry team somewhere. His draft position prop has really been falling over the last couple of days.

And I think he's, let me pull it up here. He's at 16 and a half and the money's going towards the under. You know, that was just a couple of days ago was like 18 and a half with the money going towards the over. So he's picking up a lot of steam over the last. I got to ask you guys about the Jets. They're hanging out at 10. Smart money or a smart person would just say, you know what? You've got a bunch of guys with the AARP cards on one year deals at tackle.

You might even bring in Bakhtiari and he's not going to play well on that turf. You got a chance you might be able to get a, you know, a tackle here. But I keep hearing, we're going to take. goodunese. We're going to take Brock Bowers and all this. What in the world would you guys do with this number 10 spot with the Jets? Bowers right now is the money favorite at plus 145. I mean, I would probably go with bow. I mean, he's a generational type of prospect at the tight end position. You make your quarterback very happy. We know he's, you know, he's prone to have different moods and you go out and get him the player of, you know, after the catch kind of a receiver.

and Brock Bowers, that would make any quarterback happy. But as I said earlier, I think they're potentially candidates to slide up a few picks if Roma Dunezai slides a little bit. Offensive line is obviously still a concern. They patched it together a little bit here, but Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are, you know, older type of tackles. So, you know, how long are you going to, you know, count on those guys to stay healthy. so they could go a number of different directions here. Personally, I hope they go Bowers, but we'll see how it kind of plays out. Offensive linemen on draft kings is the favorite to be the Jets pick, plus 115.

I think they, and that that opens up the possibility, Tom, right, for all the possibilities. You stay put, you take Olu Foshano, you take the kid from Oregon State. Like, you can take it, or the Jets could trade back and take. one of the tackles who maybe falls a little bit. You know, maybe they trade back a bunch of spots and take Amarius Mims, the kid from Georgia, who might be the most gifted of every tackle in this class, but he started like two games in his life. So maybe they're like, hey, we'll bring in the project because we signed Tyron Smith and we sign Morgan Moses.

And those guys are going to start, those guys are going to start regardless if they have a polished offensive linemen. So that opens up the opportunity for the Jets to trade back. That is actually the betting favorite for their first pick. but tight end is there at plus 145 and Drake, wide receivers plus 2.30. Those are the only odds for the Jets to draft a player with their first pick shorter than 25 to 1. So literally, if it's not an offensive lineman tight end or wide receiver, it is almost certainly not happening for the New York Jets. They are going to add on the offensive side of the football and given the fact that how good their defense was last year, probably the right move.

If you guys are wondering, hey, who are these great guys we're talking to at work? Can I read more of their work? Make sure you're following our guest, Tom Brolly on the old Twitter machine. Again, it's not extant. At Tom Brolly, his great article, Brawley's best bets is up over at FantasyPoints.com. Some great free articles. You can see some of the best bets that he's given out. Even, you know, like you said, he gave one out earlier this morning on the second quarterback. I'll be, I'll be looking over all these. I mean, I'm like, these numbers are dancing around my head at this point. I've been looking at these for three weeks, three solid weeks. weeks here now. And we're getting down to the nitty gritty, but I'm sure I'm going to find

another bet or two. So make sure to continue to check out the best bets and the, the draft prop articles. I'll continue to update those over the next couple of days. Joe's at FG underscore Dolan. And Joe, I can't wait to hear you over on the YouTube page. Again, YouTube.com slash fantasy points. All three days of the NFL draft, we're going to be live talking about the picks, giving a fantasy reaction. There's going to be post shows. Joe's going to be there. It's going to be on Sirius XM. It's going to be unbelievable. Make sure you're subscribed to our Fantasy Points YouTube channel. Joe, I can't wait to hear your reaction when finally we get through all these quarterbacks. We get through all these rando teams, the

Denver's of the world, the Las Vegas is of the world, even teams like Seattle, who I think might be looking at a player like Michael Pennix. Because these rosters, Joe, and these GMs, they tell you in advance what these teams want to do. If you only have, one quarterback on your roster like the Patriots do. If you have really terrible quarterbacks, you know, if Jared Stidham is in line to take snaps for you, that's not a good thing. So when you're sitting here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel and we get past those teams, we get to the end of the bad teams and we get to the playoff teams, Joe,

what do you think is going to stick out in your mind most from this first round? Is anything going to surprise you? Surprise. I've gotten past the time of being surprised with what teams really do in the NFL draft. Let's see. What could be a surprise? The Eagles drafting a wide receiver might be a surprise, even though I think they need one. But I think the Eagles drafting a wide receiver would.

They're more of a day two or day three team at that position for me. But I wouldn't be stunned if they did. You skipped over one team that we talked about on last week's podcast. And I'm going to talk about it on this week's podcast because they made a trade today for Zach Wilson. That's the Denver Broncos. Zach Wilson has a big arm and he can move. Okay, that's always going to get a guy a shot in the NFL. Zach Wilson, you cannot go into the year with Zach Wilson as your starting quarterback. Look at the roster that the Denver post hat. Their best receiver is Cortland Sutton.

He's unhappy with his contract. And I'll be honest, if Cortland Sutton's the best receiver on your team, you need a wide receiver. Denver is fascinating because Denver does not have a second round pick. Bow Nix, his draft position, I think he's plus odds to be drafted in the first round time. Yes, he is. Yeah, yeah. Plus 180. It's getting worse, too.

Every passing day, it's getting more and more likely he's going in the second round. At least wise wise. What are the chances that the Denver Broncos and Sean Payton, who I still am surprised he took this hack job of a team, this job trying to rebuild Russell Wilson, which we all knew was going to end poorly? What are the chances that the Broncos are sitting there at Twill? They clearly don't have the ammo.

The Broncos trading up for a quarterback would be stupid, okay? They don't have any talent on this. What are the chances the Broncos are sitting there to all? Brock Bowers falls a little bit, okay? The Jets passed on Brock Bowers, take an offensive lineman. Maybe there's a team who really likes Michael Pennings. What are the odds that the Broncos trade back for recoup some extra pick? And then use some of those picks to go get Bo Nicks in the back end of the first round or early second round.

Could that be a scenario where the Broncos don't draft a quarterback with their first pick, but end up with an early quarterback in this draft? because the Broncos need just about everything. So I'm looking at Denver as a team that they could trade back, try to accrue some talent here, try to accrue some picks. Still, still if they like Bo Nix, make that pick at the quarterback position. I think it would be malpractice if Denver stuck at 12 in the state of their role. Yeah, they can use all the picks that they can possibly get here in this draft.

You know, I saw you even tweeted out, retweeted somebody that noted that Cortland, Sutton was not part of their jersey reveal today. It was Marvin Mins. You know, Cortland Sutton skipped the start of trade Cortland Sutton. Like get a, I'm sure they're trying to. They're trying to get anything for him. So that is certainly possibly. That is actually one of the props I gave out last week. Just because the quarterback was the overwhelming favorite, not overwhelming, but the odds on favor. They were like minus 110, minus 120 to select a quarterback with their first pick. And it just didn't really add up in my head. You know, they don't really have the ammunition to trade up, uh, to get one of those top four

quarterbacks. Are they really going to, you know, draft Bo Nicks 12th overall. I'm with you, Joe. I think it's probably more likely that they stay in pick at 12. Uh, and they don't take Bo Mick, Bo Nix or they trade back and maybe a crew, you know, you know, crew a couple more picks for later in the draft. So, Tract an offensive lineman. And then, and that's what I gave up, Joe. plus 1,100 for offensive linemen. And in the mock drafts, they're about like 18 or 20% chance of selecting an offensive line. This was me trying to thread the needle of understanding that some team is going to draft Bo Nix likely in the top 50 picks of the draft, right?

Like, quarterbacks fall. There are some guys who quarterbacks fall every year, quarterbacks rise every year. But Bo Nix is probably going to be drafted because of his profile. Guys who start a lot of college games have had a lot of success in the NFL recently. Brock Purdy, you know, among the recent success stories at that position. I was just trying to thread the needle of Denver understanding, and this was before the Zach Wilson trade, but that doesn't really move the needle for me.

Trying to thread the needle, two different kinds and guests, of them getting a quarterback who could potentially be the player that carries them into the future, while also understanding that it's probably not prudent in a draft where you're not likely to be in range to draft one of the top four quarterbacks in the class. When you have a crappy roster around him, understanding that it's not prudent to spend your 12th overall pick on a guy who's the fifth best guy at his own position. I just don't think that's a, I just don't see that happening.

And I think the Broncos are more likely to trade out of that pick than to do that. And remember, circling this all back, they don't have the ammunition to trade up. They just don't. Minnesota's got more. There's teams picking ahead of them who have more ammunition. They just don't have the ammunition to move up. So to me, trading back is the best move for the Broncos. Draft an offensive lineman.

And if you want bonnicks, you're going to have something that you acquired in that trade that you can maybe go get them with. And Joe, this kind of goes back to your, the little conversation we had at the beginning about the Patriots, you know, should they trade out or, you know, stay in pick. Now we got the Broncos, I think, has a worse roster than the Patriots at this point. And we're picking at 12th. We're going to be drafting a quarterback that's significantly worse than the options that the Patriots are going to have at 3. Yeah, setting up, you know, Bo Nicks or Michael Pennix or whoever, whoever they select a number 12 overall out of those quarterbacks.

I mean, that would be a tough situation to be put in. But, I mean, it's certainly still on the board here. And we'll see Michael Pennix is the one that's certainly picking up steam. And Brian, you were asking about surprises. I think that's going to be wherever Michael Penix goes in the first round. And it's seeming more and more likely. I think that will probably be the, oh, my, because JJ McCarthy's kind of been the, the guy that's risen and been a lot of the pre-draft, you know, dominated the talk.

And that's still obviously going to be a lot of the talk on Thursday. But wherever Michael Panics goes, we haven't, we haven't had nearly that much talk on him. And I think it's wherever he ends up is going to be the major talk in Seattle. could be an interesting spot. I know we talked about them a little bit. Hold that thought, Tom, because I think we've got the landing spot for Michael Penix, and I'm going to tell you where Cortland Sutton gets traded and why right after this. All right, guys, we were talking before the break about a possible trade of Cortland Sutton and what that could look like. Cortland Sutton has two years left on his contract.

He makes $13 million a year. In 25, he makes $13.5. Okay. Not the craziest thing world. You know who needs a receiver, a big outside X? The Buffalo Bills. The bills have multiple fours, multiple fives. And I think with that contract, if they could pick that up and absorb it, they don't have a ton of dough, but do you think you could get Cortland Sutton for a fourth and a fifth? If you flip that over to Denver to try to, you know, bolster their roster a little bit. Yeah, that's actually, that kind of makes sense. I'm not a big Cortland Sutton guy. No. I can see the rest of the leg is either. I can see him being the kind of guy that like Josh Allen likes because he can go up and get the football. So yeah, I mean,

that would be one we're like, well, I don't love Cortland Sutton, but the bills just had to give up a couple of day three picks for him. And it makes sense for the Broncos because they need picks. I actually, Drake, you actually found a spot where Cortland Sutton might make sense to me. Portland Sutton in that, in that scenario, I guarantee you, it will become like a fourth round pick in fantasy drafts. Oh, I won't be drafting him there, but like, uh, but I, I, I, I think, That's a really good, because the bills will then still draft a wide receiver because they need one. I mean, Tom, outside of like the commanders, the bears and like the Patriots, is there any team that has shorter odds for their first position drafted than Buffalo right now?

For a team to be like minus 300 at the end of the first round to draft a player at a position, that's kind of wild, man. Yeah, this is a good exercise. New Orleans Saints, can you guess the position there? I'm sure you guys can. with, you know, there's some talk about this guy not being able to be playing this year. Michael, Ryan Ramcheck. Oh, oh, yeah, offensive lineman.

They're like the right up there with the bills. They're now minus 400. They completely blew the Trevor Penning. Yeah. And that's also, yeah, covering up a mistake from a previous draft. They had some guys walking in free agency and, you know, they still haven't signed Andres Pete. So, yeah, outside of the Saints. The Titans, I would guess, are the Titans.

Yeah, but they're up at the top of the draft. They're at the top where it's easier to predict, yeah. Talking more of the, you know, the middle of the first round to late first round. But yeah, you're right. It's after the Saints, yeah, the bills are right up there in terms of like a position of need. And they're going to spend that pick. Obviously, this is a good draft for offensive line for the Saints and wide receivers for the bills. But the bills are going to be the odds.

there was a lot of talk even just like last week that they could trade up and select Brian Thomas Jr. But just monitoring these draft positions. Brian Thomas's Jr.'s draft position has been slipping a little bit this last week. His pick, he was like 16 and a half and don't know what he's at now. He was like 18 and a half, 19 and a half. You know, he's 19 and a half now in Fandall. And the over is significantly juiced a minus 1.6. So a prospect that is losing some steam, you know, after that top three, Brian Thomas has kind of been that number four.

But he's even losing a little bit of steam here in the last couple of days. I probably wouldn't trade up for the fourth best guy at a position. Like that that's something that I'm generally against. But I wonder if I could see that from Buffalo or Kansas City if Brian Thomas does slip the way that you're talking, right? Like, oh, instead of moving up 10 spots, we only have to move up five now to make that. and then you can start talking yourself into it. Drake, you were going somewhere with Pennix, right? I was going to bring that up with the Seattle.

They're kind of the sneaky under the radar team with Michael Pennix. Brian Grubb was his offensive coordinator at Washington. He took the Seattle job. He's going to be one of the most interesting guys. I'm sure we're going to talk a lot about that offense this summer, just because he's a great unknown and he was doing great things at Washington. But obviously he has the connection with Pennix. just throwing a little crumb out there.

Maybe, you know, they were one of those teams. Are they going to cut Gino Smith? And they ended up deciding to keep him around. Do they go, let's draft Penix and let's move Gino Smith to one of these Raiders or Broncos or one of these teams that, you know, need a quarterback here. And they don't get the guy in the draft. That would be so dumb from the Broncos. I don't think that would be dumb for the Raiders because I think the Raiders are in a little bit better position.

that that would be oh it's not like Gino's con you know it's more of like a one year type of deal on you know why with the Broncos trade for Gino is my thing like the Raiders are getting them for Guanté Adams yeah I mean the Raiders have Devonty Adams right like if I'm the Broncos

I don't get these quarterbacks like fuck it just start Jared Stittam right like just go loose to suck for hearing the Raiders won't do that but like that's the thing with Seattle because like I look at Seattle and quite frankly Tom There are teams that need quarterbacks more than the Seahawks do.

Like, Gino obviously is a guy who has been resurgent with the Seahawks. I'll sum up and down more recently. They traded for Sam Howl, who puts some good moments on tape, and then the commanders had him dropping back 87 times a game and shattered his confidence. But he has some moments on tape. So you don't view them as a quarterback needy team, but if they draft pennics and then are able to move Gino, Yeah, have a little bit of a little interesting there.

So I would have to look up the ages. I think Sam Howell is actually younger than Pennix. I would have to look it up. Well, that was like last year. Howe was pretty young coming into the draft, if I remember. He was like 21 and Pennix is like 24. So yeah, like I think Pennix might actually be older than Sam Howell. Pennix is older than Sam Howe.

Pennix turns 24 in May. Sam Hal turns 24 in September. I thought it was like last year when the Packers drafted Sean. Clifford and they're like oh that was interesting and then uh somebody said why would they because pen steak I'm Penn steak guy you so were you Tom so why would Packers do them I said well they needed a veteran veteran for Jordan Love because John Clifford's older than Jordan Love but uh but yeah I mean Pennix is it looks like Pennix is getting the first round juice now he to me and this is just to these untrained eyes at in Mobile at the Senior Bowl he threw

the ball better than Bowdo Nick I didn't think it was very close yeah I don't think there was any question. I mean, if we're, you know, just a pure passer. Like he, he throws a tight little ball and, you know, just a pure, pure arm. I think Pennix is right up there with anybody. It's, it all comes down to his age and, you know, the health of those two knees, but the two torn ACLs. So, but he throws, he throws a pretty ball. I was just looking up the contract numbers here on Gino Smith. He doesn't make a ton of dough. He only makes 12.7 this year. His dead cap. though in 2024 is nearly 40 million. So tough to move on from him this year. You brought up another name, Joe, that I'm fascinated with because one of the questions I was going to ask you guys is we've seen players like A.J. Brown get traded on draft day. And there's always whispers of, hey, could T. Higgins maybe get moved or we just talked

about Cortland Sutton? You brought up Devante Adams. We know his displeasure with the way that the Raiders franchise is going. after 2024, he has no guaranteed money left on his contract. Is Devante Adams possibly a guy that you could see getting moved? And that was going to be my next question is. Just Devante T. Higgins, one of these receivers. You see anybody getting moved on draft day.

But you piqued my interest with the Devante. The thing that's interesting here is the trade prices that we saw this offseat. Guys were not getting moved for first round picks the way AJ Brown and Hollywood Brown were a couple of So it would have to be a blockbuster, blockbuster, I think, for one of these guys to get moved for a first round pick. I don't think T. Higgins is getting moved for a first round pick. Like, I just don't see that happening. It's, it's only one guy, I think, and that's Brandon Ayuk. I think he would go.

I think he would fetch a first rounder, and obviously his name has been in trade talks all offseason long here. And they're in contract negotiations. And he's like, he's the one guy, I think, that has. I don't think it's going to happen, but, you know, I put it 30% chance he gets moved first or second day of the draft. And then that becomes interesting. That becomes interesting then because I don't want to give this, because obviously Titan fans would take back that A.J. Brown trade in a second. But like, could the 49ers who are picking at the end of the first round, let's just say they trade IUC for somebody who has a pick in the 20s? Could the 49ers do the A.J. Brown Traylon Burks thing and just like draft or a wide receiver just to be a

like, all right, we traded Brandon I, you, we're not going to be able to pay them. We're going to just draft one of these wide receivers. I think that's, I guess that could be a possibility, Tom, which would then make the 49ers, their first, I don't, I'm not showing odds here on draft kings of them to draft a player in the first round. Plus 3.40 or wide receiver. Offensive line is the heavy, not, yeah, odds on favorite, minus 110. Cornerback is 430 and defensive line is 430.

So they do have it baked in there a little bit that if IUC gets moved, because that would not normally be seen as a area of weakness for their offense. It shouldn't be the second odds. But there's certainly some baked in there. Hey, if they move Iyuk, they could certainly want to grab one of these wide receivers. I think Brian Thomas would fill in very nicely for Brandon Ayuk as a similar sort of player that can play inside, can play outside. You can move around a little bit. You've already got, you know, Debo's a freaking.

tank out there. It's going to be interesting. I mocked in an article that I wrote, I rocked Thomas to Kansas City at 32 because I still think Kansas City needs another weapon on the outside. I know they've got Hollywood Brown. You know, people. Oh, wow. You're burying the lead here, Drake. Yeah, yeah. That's, well, yeah, Rayci Rice is going to get like a game suspension. Raci Rice isn't going any like, like he'll be totally fine. But you're right, Kelsey. And he's old as dirt. Kelsey's older. Yeah, Rishi Rice is going to get, I think Schaefter hinted at a multi-game suspension here. And obviously, teams don't draft for a guy to miss three games, okay?

They don't do that. But they do still need a receiver. And let me be quite frank with you, we in fantasy football need them to draft a receiver. So we don't talk our freaking selves into Cadarius, Tony and Sky Moore again this offseason. Not doing it. Not doing it. We need them to draft a wide receiver to get us off of that, quite frankly. But minus 120.

That's the leading bet right now on Fandul is for the Kansas City Chiefs to take a wide receiver at 32. I did give that one out. I did give that one out for all his best bets. I also gave out Xavier Worthy. I don't know if he's still. Fandle doesn't have that prop anymore, but it was like plus $750 for him to land with the chief. I think he's still out there some other books, but it's like plus five or $100. So it's not nearly the same value.

But obviously he was the, he's been the comp here for Tyreek Hill, broke the. the 40-yard dash record at the combine, obviously can run and would give that element of speed that this offense has kind of been lacking. I mean, they've had some fast players, but they can't catch the ball. But we'll see if Xavier Worthy can do that too. So, yeah, that was one little, the chiefs picking at the end of the first round. Let's play a little trivia here, guys, because Andy Reid is, he's Mr. Pass-happy, right? He's been Mr. Pass-happy since he came into the league.

one can you tell me how many times an Andy Reed coach team for head coach team has drafted a wide receiver in a in the first round can you tell me how many times? Never. No, more than that. Yeah, I'm thinking back to old Eagles days. I mean, we had terrible, you know, the community we, when you look back at the terrible receivers of the JJR Sega white sides. I mean, there was a lot of. An Andy Reed head coach team has drafted. a wide receiver in the first round twice.

He has never done it with Kansas City. Can you name the two? It's two. And can you name the, can you name them? Here we go. This is terrible radio because there's going to be some dead air. Now, but so our thing of White Side was after his time, right? Oh, that's why.

He was a second round pick anyway. He was the second round. The last time was in 2009. 2009. 2009 Eagle wide receiver. He played for Andy at both of Andy's stops. Oh, uh, Maclin.

Jeremy Maclin was the last one. He was great out of Missouri. Yeah, yeah. And the first one was in 2001. He made a legendary play, but he was a bust. Freddie Mitchell. There you go. I think my hands for being so great.

Yep, those are the two. Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Macklin. So, yeah, so Andy Reid, for all this pass happy crap, the guy ignores the wide receiver position. It's kind of wild. Yeah, offensive line has been a popular spot for them with their first pick as well. Yeah, that was like part of their problem last year. And then, you know, Mahomes just became Mahomes again.

So yeah. And they, but they have a second year guy, Juania Morris, who's projected to be their left tackle. So it really depends on what they think about that young. Yeah, they're definitely adding to that offensive line at some point. So guys, we're up about an hour here. We thank everybody for hanging and banging with us again. Go over that YouTube channel. Hit that subscribe button.

And if you're listening to this on a podcast form, make sure you're subscribed to the Fantasy Points podcast. My God, do we have some great stuff coming down the pike in terms of our pods for this upcoming season? Anything, guys, before we go, this back half of the first round, any surprises? Give me a bold prediction, Joe, something you think is going to go down here in the first round. I think there is going to be a team that's going to trade back up into the first round to get Bow Nix. I just don't know who it's going to be. I think the odds on favorite is the Denver Broncos. I don't think this is a first round thing,

but based on what Adam Schaefter and some of the intel here has been coming, don't be surprised if a running back goes a little bit earlier than yes, Pity. Because we've been told this running back class is dog shit. But there are teams that have clear needs at the position, and there are some guys here, most notably Jonathan Brooks, who's coming off in ACL, who teams seem to really like. So let's see what happens. Yeah, that line has been steep.

He teamed heavily today. This is April 22nd. Yeah, he is now the odds on favor to be the first running back selected. He is minus 115. A lot of thought that the Cowboys with their second round pick, I think it's about 50 or 57, would select him. I think they must be picking 56 because they set his over under like 56 and a half, basically.

Are the Cowboys going to select them at 56 or not? So that is one prop that has, that's another one that's been on the move here. based on those reports that Brooks is, he's pretty significant favorite here now to go, the first running back off the board. All right. Braley, get us out of here with a prediction from yourself here.

What do you think's going to go down here? Give me a big hot tape to have the listeners chew on. Well, I don't really have a, I don't have one here for the back end. I'd like Xavier worthy to go, I'd like him 32nd if he's still on the board for the chiefs. We were just talking about them.

I do think we'll have five quarterbacks go. I did say that with Penn. I do think we're going to see at least five quarterbacks going the first round. I thought that initially, and then I kind of waned off of that, but over the last week here, I do think we're going to see five quarterbacks going the first round. We'll break that NFL record. We were talking about that at the beginning for offensive players selected in the first

round. So it will be a fantasy bonanza on Thursday night. We'll go with 21 offensive players selected in the first round on Thursday night. Wow, it's going to be fun, guys. And if you're looking for something to do on Thursday and Friday and Saturday, why don't you join us over at the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. We've got all our analysts that we're going to be breaking things down as it happens. And a post game show, you know, you're going to get NFL news.

You're going to get a fantasy spin. Whatever you need. It's all there. It's fun. You know how our staff rolls. It's a great time. YouTube.com slash points. I can't wait guys to watch that show.

I've got my first golf league of the year on Thursday night. I'll be putting in on the ninth hole. right before the first pick goes on the air. So I'll probably be drowning my sorrows as Caleb Williams becomes a multimillionaire, but it's neither here nor there. So guys, thank you so much. Great stuff. Again, go and follow Tom on Twitter at Tom Broly.

Joe is at FG underscore Dolan. And go over to FantasyPoint.com, guys. We've got our packages up for the 2024 season. Get in with Broly's best bets. Make yourself a little money. When you take your wife out for dinner next weekend, she'll be like, man, we're going to this fancy restaurant. Where'd this all cash come from?

You go, this one's on the grinder. Don't worry about it. Yeah, with some money. I can't even bet on these things in Pennsylvania. So I'm doing the Lord's work here. It like pains me. I'm writing up all these bets and I'm, you know, doing the best bets and I can't even,

I got to like get somebody to run picks for me in other states. So, yeah, go over there. Hopefully your state has legal gambling on the, on the NFL draft and have a little fun. We got to make that into a T-shirt. It's just a guy holding out his hand and they're putting some, like dollar bills. And it says this one's on the grinder.

Ah, that'd be phenomenal. So all right, for Tom, for Joe, I'm Drake. We'll see you next time in the two points dance.