Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Draft Props | Two-Point Stance Podcast

Episode Date: April 10, 2024

With the NFL Draft just days away, there's never been a better time to place a prop bet on who will get drafted and where. The "Two-Point Stance" pod welcomes back Fantasy Points Director of Betting, Tom Brolley, to give his takes on the top 10 and beyond. Where does J.J. McCarthy land? Will Brock Bowers be a top-10 selection? How many QBs get drafted in the first round? All this and more with our hosts Brian Drake and Joe Dolan. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The NFL draft is right around the corner. You like money. I like money. Our guy Tom Brolly is here to help us win money. What do you say? We bet on the NFL draft. Next on the two-point stance. Tennessee universe, welcome everybody into the two-point stance.

I'm your boy, Brian Drake, hanging and banging with the managing editor of fantasy points. com, Mr. Joe Dolan. Joe, we're back. Tom Broley did such a kick-ass job for us the last time we recorded. We decided to bring them back in, man. going to be a fun one, the three of us. I got a feel that are going to get together a few times going forward here to talk football. How you doing first and foremost there, Mr. Dolan? Doing well, Drake. We're releasing this on Friday, but we're recording it on Tuesday after the

I guess the literal snoozer of a national championship game because I fell asleep on the couch where you see my dogs right back there after I was fooling around on the guitar, been taking some guitar lessons. But yeah, I mean, look, it's NFL draft time. It's time to get down to the nitty gritty. We're going to do, I think, a precursory look at some of the draft odds. And then as we get into draft week, we're going to really start hitting Brawley's best bets because I think Tom is going to come up with a couple by then. But it's good to be with you, Mr. Drake. It's good to be with you, Mr. Brawley. How are we doing this morning, Tom? I'm doing great. Were you guys able to see a little bit of the eclipse yesterday here in

central Pennsylvania? Nothing but, nothing but clouds. I know a little bit. The lighting was interesting. but from what I understand, there is like a massive difference between like 99% and 100% and we weren't in the path of totality, as they say. From what I understand, I guess a lot of the areas where there was totality, there was a lot of cloud cover. So didn't. Yeah, that was. Look, that's where I live here.

I live in Syracuse, New York. And we were right in the path. So I mean, we had the roads were jammed. Hotels were all booked up. People came from all over. And then people realized, oh, wait, it's Syracuse, New York. it's cloudy, you know, 23 hours a day, 360 days a year. So it was cloudy.

My son was pretty upset about it. They had no school and whatever. Yeah, that was here too. We had 95%, you know, in terms of the eclipse. And maybe I saw the sun for like maybe a two minute window in the, in that two to four clock window. So yeah, I barely, barely got to live up, you know, live up the eclipse there. So I guess I'll have to wait another 18 to 20 years or whatever it's going to take

for it to come back around. Yeah, this is a, this is an interesting time of year. Holy crap. I'm like so discombobulated. The March Madness kind of started late this year. Masters is kind of late this year. The drafts is a little bit early this year. It's only two weeks until the draft. We're really, really close for the draft. So my internal, internal clock is off, but I'm ready for some draft here right around the corner. Folks, if you're out there and you're getting that draft ditch also, may I suggest, just going over to fantasy points.com, checking out our free prospect guide that Brett Whitefield put together. It's going to get you up to speed on all these draft prospects. Joe Dolan

edited the damn thing. He knows how good it is. So if you want to know, you know, from a film and data viewpoint, how good these players could be and how they could fit on your favorite team or your fantasy team, go over there. Fantasypoints.com. It's free. Download it. Check it out today. but we're here guys to talk a little prop betage. And it's really fun. If you're in a state that allows you to bet on the NFL draft, you can really kind of get in with your boys and have a lot of fun and make a few bucks if you're paying attention. So over the course of these next few podcasts, hopefully we can enlighten you guys a little bit.

And if you go to FantasyPoints.com, Tom, of course, has a few articles up on the receivers and the running backs. he's got a quarterback article all about draft props. So you're going to want to head over there. Now, there's no surprise and there's no money to be one, Tom, on the first overall pick. I got fan duels odds pulled up. Caleb Williams at the moment minus 10,000 to go number one overall. So no mystery there. No, there really hasn't been much mystery at all.

Even if you go back to right after, because this is one prop that they'll put out immediately after the draft. And last May, he was a slam dunk minus five. Not a not a 10,000 to one, you know, 10 to one, 10,000 to one favorite like he was. But he was minus 500 after last year's draft. So never, never really got too short other than, you know, the whole, you know, him crying his mom's shoulder after the loss to Washington back in November. of that that made it dip down to minus 360. But other than that, he's been a pretty solid, overwhelming favorite here to be the first selection.

And even after the Bears got it, even though your favorite sports talk radio show was debating whether they were going to go with Justin Fields or Caleb Williams, sports books never really went, you know, never really bought that argument. And it's been Caleb Williams, even when the Bears eventually got the number one overall picks. So it seems to be really solidifying here. We even had Keenan Allen showing up to Caleb Williams's pro day back a couple of weeks. And that was right after Keenan Allen got traded to the Chicago Bears. So all signs are pointing towards Caleb Williams going number one overall here.

Well, let's have some fun because this is where the draft begins at number two. Oh, oh, Drake, that is a cliche in half, man. There's always going to be somebody. Every, every, every draft expert are talking at, I guarantee you Adam Schaefter and Ian Rappap, probably both of them are going to tweet after Caleb Williams comes off. Now the draft really begins. It's like when every sports writer says pencils down at the trade deadline. When the trade deadline passes, you know, that's, that this is where the draft begins, though, because you can see anything happening then at this point, number two. Yeah, Jaden Daniels minus 150. Again, if you're betting, it's not,

you're not betting on the team they're going to go to. You're betting on the draft spot. So right now the commanders have that pick. I don't anticipate them trading out of it, but who knows? Crazy things happen, right? So Jaden Daniels minus 150, Drake May plus 150. Tom, what I like that you did in your article here is you kind of gave us a feel of what mock drafters are saying with this spot.

And they've got Jaden Daniels, Jeremiah, Dane Bruegler, going third overall in their latest mock drafts. Drake May at plus 150 if you want to win some money. You know, J.J. McCarthy's plus 850. He's the poster boy for a prospect guide from Brett Whitefield. Or if something really wacky do happens and Caleb Williams falls, he's plus 5,000. So where do you like to go here with number two? I'm leaning more towards the Daniels side. And this is where the money has been when I released my article last week, Jaden Daniels was at plus 115 to go second overall. He is now sitting at minus 1.1.5. And this is now sitting at minus 1. 15, minus 150 as of Tuesday.

I'll tell you what, though, the commanders have, you know, this is the kind of the first year of this regime, this Adam Peters took over at GM. They have really kept a tight lid on, you know, what exactly they're going to do. And if we remember back to San Francisco when they traded up to number three overall, it was really, you know, is it going to be Mac Jones? Is it going to be Trey Lance? What are they going to do? And we didn't really know what they were going to do at number three overall until basically 24, you know, maybe 36 hours out from the draft.

So the commanders here and Adam Peters, they've kept a really tight lid on what exactly they want to do. The first signs that maybe it could be Jaden Daniels was when they signed Marcus Marietta, more mobile quarterback. That's when the odds started to flip from Drake May to Jaden Daniels. and he got to minus 180. As we see, it did get close to back to a coin flip here. But since over the last week, it's moved more towards Daniels. But even the last month here, though, J.J. McCarthy is starting to, you know,

there's been some talk that even he could maybe potentially go in this number two spot. So he's at plus 850 to go number two overall. But Daniels is the slight favorite here as of now. And that's the way I would kind of lean here. Joe, any difference from you at number two if you were going to lay a shuckle down? No, the one thing that I want to talk about here is probably the J.J. McCarthy odds because there is no odds on the board here at Fandul where J.J. McCarthy is actually the favorite to go off at a particular pick. So if you look at number one, Caleb Williams, heavy favorite. Number two, Jaden Daniels slight favorite. Number three, Drake May is the slight. favorite. Marvin Harrison is the slight favorite at number four. Then Malik neighbors at number five.

So J.J. McCarthy, T, bro, that's the guy who can really shake this up. Because really what these odds are telling you is we expect, I actually think they have minus odds on McCarthy to be a top five pick, but they don't have him as the favorite to go at any of the spots. The question is, does Minnesota trade up to number four? Does New England do something crazy? Because New England has maybe the worst roster in professional football and decide this isn't right for us to get the quarterback. Let's just move back and get players. The J.J. McCarthy factor here is really what's interesting because he is the guy who could shake up the top of this draft. Yeah. And as Drake was saying, the draft starts at number two. I think J.J. McCarthy kind of starts this draft. This is where

where exactly is he going to go? He's kind of the unknown here up at the top. Jane Daniels and Drake May have long been considered. at the top of the board with Caleb Williams. But where is McCarthy going to fit? He, you know, his expected draft position back in like, right one Brett, Brett Whitefield, our guy, our film guy, put him as the number one overall pick in his mock draft. That was back when he was, you know, going in the late teens, early 20s. And ever since then, he's been on just a meteoric rise here.

and now he's considered a top top five pick. But it seems like we got to see what the Patriots are going to do. I think the commanders are certainly locked in a quarterback. I think the Patriots will be as well. But they're the one team that's a little bit of a wild card. Maybe they trade back. Maybe they try to get a couple extra picks. Cardinals as well.

And the Chargers could be up for sale as well. If they decide they want to go offensive tackle and maybe just slide back a little bit and still get their guys. So this is, where is McCarthy going to go? That is the kind of the great unknown here up at the top of the board. Yeah, I like what you're saying there is that pick being for sale, possibly at four or five with Arizona and the Chargers, because then you start to look behind him.

Because again, we're betting on the draft spot, not the team. And that's important, Drake, because let me tell you, last year, I had some intel. I had somebody in the league tell me Chicago is all over Darnell Wright, all over him. So I threw that out in our betting discord and I said, look, well, I come back and I'm getting all these props like, Dolan, this was great. Thank you for this. And then I realized my bet on him was for Darnell Wright to go ninth overall, which if you'll remember, they traded back one spot with the Eagles because the Eagles traded up for Jalen Carter. So despite me having that intel, I placed the wrong bet. Oh, you did play.

I gave it out as top 10. I'm just like, just in case, you know, something. And a lot of times with these bets, I will go for maybe the bet that has a little more wiggle room. You know, just getting that extra pick or two. Maybe not picking a team, like picking a draft spot or, yeah, you got to look at, because there's different variations of all these bets. So that is a great point. I'm sorry you've lost your bet.

Yeah, well, I mean, I just wasn't thinking. That's why you're the betting lead and I'm not because like, I'm like, I got this intel, boom, boom, boom. And I've got, oh, this is 15 to 1, boom, boom, you know. And then unfortunately, it did not come to pass. But at least the subscribers won on that. But that is, I know that sounds obvious, but that is a critical point here. Like, you got to, if you like a player to a team, bet them to the team.

If you like a player, you know, like, for instance, let's look at, Marvin Harrison at four. He's the favorite to be the fourth overall pick here. There's a few ways this good. Like Arizona, I mean, any Arizona fan can justify. We saw them moving around last year too. Yeah. Any Arizona fan can justify staying there and getting Marvin Harrison. You know, what if there's a godfather offer from a team who's like, that's the last piece of our puzzle? And Arizona's like, we love Marvin Harrison. But, you know, this is a draft where Brett Whitefield has 17 day one or two grades on wide receivers. 17.

That is an absurd amount. And, you know, there's probably seven or eight guys who in a normal year would be a first rounder. There might be three or four of those guys who fall to the second round just because of how deep the class is. Maybe Arizona views that as, look, we love Marvin Harrison, but there's guys we love also and we feel like we can get more picks and somebody gives a godfather off. Yeah, it could be the team that, you know, is the. spot for the Vikings. Trade up, get 11 and 23, and maybe you get one of those wide receivers at 11, and maybe you can still go offensive line at 23 or go for a defense apiece. So that's certainly right. I think Harrison is a pretty good bet for number four overall, but there's certainly some

wiggle room here with a team like the Vikings hanging in the back here, looking for a spot to come up after acquiring that extra first round pick a couple of weeks ago. And when you look at Arizona, you could say, eh, they don't need a quarterback. Sometimes people joke about, oh, they'll take somebody. But we think they're kind of a team devoid of talent. They need to get another playmaker on the outside. They don't really have any wide receivers at this point. But if you look behind him at number five, chargers, they need receivers.

Giants at six, they need receiver. Tennessee, you know, they've signed Ridley, but we'll see. Atlanta doesn't. Dravers could. If Tennessee doesn't draft an offensive tackle, that would maybe be the second biggest upset of the first round behind only if the Bears didn't draft capable of it. And at number seven pick, Joe Alt is the only negative number there. He's minus 105 at number seven where the Tennessee Titans pick. Yeah, that's one I'm going to be

probably later today on Tuesday. So it should be out already. I'm working on an offensive line and defensive props here. And that's one of the few over under totals that is out there. Joe Alt, over under seven and a half. You got to pay minus one. 45 towards the under at Draft Kings, but I think I might be releasing that as a pick. I just don't see him sliding past the Titans here. Seems like just a perfect fit for what Callahan wants to do. And instead of just taking the minus 105,

I've got to pay a little bit more, but that also gives me a little more wiggle room. Say, you know, this is going back to what we were talking about earlier. Say the Chargers or a team that really wants offensive line. Or maybe there's a team that just looks to, to get ahead of the Titans at number seven and wants to get Joe Alt, maybe they trade ahead to, maybe they go to the sixth spot,

give the Giants a little extra room, a little, a few extra picks. So that's why I kind of like, I'll probably be betting the over, the under here on Joe All under seven a half. Then a pick spot where I get a little bit better return, but there's more potential landmines, you know, if he goes five or six overall.

I like digging into this McCarthy. stuff here because at let's try to figure out where he could go and where we could make some money. If you bet him at four, he's plus four and five. He's plus 400. Okay. So that means Arizona would be trading out of that spot or the chargers. I could see either of those teams moving down. You know, who's going to come up? And then you start to wonder, all right, well, who behind them really wants to get that quarterback? And then you say, yeah, is it, is it Minnesota? Is Minnesota going to bet against themselves? Do they think Denver is going to hop above them, Vegas? Because 11, 12, 13, you can even say New Orleans at 14 for the future, those four teams really need a quarterback.

Here's going forward. Here's the funniest part about the McCarthy. Again, like I said, he is not the favorite to be drafted at any of these spots. Do you know where the shortest odds on the board are at three? So plus 350 is actually the shortest number that we're seeing on McCarthy and this is Fandul. So it might elsewhere, we're just, we're just doing this just for a sake of consistency. But you mentioned plus 400 at both four and five, Drake. He is plus 350 at three. And then that makes Drake May particularly interesting. Because if McCarthy, let's just say the Patriots love McCarthy, then all of a sudden, the Godfather offer for Drake May from Minnesota, Minnesota is already moved up, right? Minnesota is already scheming to get those multiple first round picks so they can

get up higher in the draft, then that becomes really interesting for Drake May. So I wonder if picking Drake May at plus 750 to be the number four overall pick might be maybe the best value bet in this top five, because if McCarthy does go at three, you would think Arizona is wide ass open for business at that point. Yeah, and that's been kind of the, a little bit of the draft rumor out there is that the Patriots do prefer Jaden Daniels over Drake May. So maybe that's why

that number three spot, it is a little shorter for McCarthy to go at number three overall. And it's just high, you know, it's more of a possible spot that the Vikings trade up there. And that's a spot where the Patriots could collect the 11th overall pick and the 23rd overall pick and maybe they address multiple spots with the first round pick.

So that has been a little bit of a rumor out there that maybe they're not as keen. on Drake May as they are, Jaden Daniels, and maybe they're warming up to J.J. McCarthy as well. So it could be a reason why that's a little bit shorter. So even fifth overall, Drake May's number is 1,800. So maybe that's even the spot to maybe take a shot on Drake May. If he does slide here a little bit,

if you want to play the board out that way, that McCarthy goes ahead of May, look down the board a little bit more here to see where May 4th or 5th, because it does seem like the Vikings, it seems like they're going to move up no matter what. And I don't know if I necessarily believe the Giants stuff at number six that they want a quarterback, but it might not be something that they want to take a gamble on that if one of those quarterbacks would get the six. Maybe the Giants would pull the trigger. I tend to think they won't, but these teams don't necessarily want to mess around with fire there.

I mean, there's always a quarterback that falls a little bit. We think, oh, guys in the pre-draft, everyone's talking about. him up. Everyone loves this guy. He's definitely going to go. And then we see him fall, year, you know, year after year. There's always a guy. You know, remember last year we're talking about Will Will Levis? And we're like, hey, Will Levis. What about Will Levis? The Reddit rumor. Do you guys remember the Reddit rumor last year? Will Levis's odds, you know, it went from like 40 to one to be selected first overall to like plus 250 or whatever it was. So, yeah, this happens all the time. And then you know, then Levis ended up, you know, falling outside of the, outside of the first.

round altogether. So yeah, we get we really, it has been kind of calm here. So I got to admit the, the draft rumors, but we are starting to get inside that, you know, two weeks span here. Maybe, maybe it will start heating up a little bit. Well, we start to see the reports come out about, oh, Malik neighbors has got some issues. Remember, he had a gun charge. I think it was dropped back when he was in college. But that's kind of bubbling at the surface again, some reports out there. I mean, he looks to be, according to all the numbers here, like a top six pick, if you want to lay some money down on him,

you know, that means he doesn't get past the Giants. There's the Giants have to take a wide receiver guys, I think. As much as Daniel Jones and that bulky neck, like I can't see them passing on either a quarterback or a receiver. I mean, they could use offensive line help as well,

because they've missed on that several times. Did you imagine that go with three offensive tackles in like the last, what is that four years or five years? I guess it would be. Only two offensive tackles on the field. So, you know, it could be problematic. So I'll be honest here, Tom. Maybe you can, you always seem to have more insight on these things than I do.

But my first reaction is I'm not touching Malik neighbor's props with a 10-foot pole. Because we are hearing both sides is, right? Like, oh, there are teams that have. And these are reputable sources. Like I think Daniel Jeremiah has been somebody who has come out and said, there are teams who have Malik neighbors graded higher than Marvin Harrison. And then Tony Pauline, and these are always going to get criticized when somebody comes out and says teams have off field problems. Because for the most part, we don't really have access to this stuff, right?

So, you know, there's always the, oh, they're trashing this kid and blah, blah, blah. And some of that is sometimes true. You know, I remember Nolan Naraki's scouting report of Cam Newton was incendiary and it was trash. But look, there's 300 kids who get drafted or two, you know, not every one of them is going to be a choir boy. So there are going to be some kids and off field issues are something teams have to consider. So when I'm weighing that, the fact that they're a team, we're told Marvin Harrison is this generational wide receiver prospect. And he probably is literally because he's the second generation Marvin Harrison. But we hear that some teams prefer neighbors.

Then we also hear that neighbors could have some off field issues. That is not a prop. I am touching, Tom. But maybe you have different insight on that. but neighbors is not something I'm willing to benefit. Yeah, I still, I'm more in the camp that I think Harrison is still the top, even though there might be a few teams out there, maybe, you know, these teams that, they profile more that they want these guys that are great after the catch.

You know, San Francisco 49ers we've seen in recent years that really, you know, prioritize the run after the catch aspect in their receivers. But I still think Harrison is the top wide receiver from most teams. and if somebody does jump into this top five picks, I think neighbors could be the one that slides a little bit here. And even the receiver behind him, I think this is a pretty solidified top three wide receivers in the top tier with Roma Dunzee.

I think there's some teams that like Dunzee maybe better than, you know, all these other guys too. So, you know, neighbors, neighbors does seem a little more volatile here, you know, compared to the, you know, some of the other prospects at the top of this draft. You know, if I'm looking at this, though, the one scenario that could be absolutely wild, what if a team takes neighbors before Marvin Harrison?

And then the team that is immediately on the board after that, basically calls Buffalo immediately. It just says, give me every pick you have, baby. Come get them. I mean, could that be the guy where Buffalo is like, all right, now we have to, Marvin Harrison slid a little bit, we've got to go get. I'm just spitballing here because I don't have,

I'm not showing a prop on team to draft Marvin Harrison Jr. The only prop that is here is Buffalo, which is minus 240 to draft a wide receiver first overall. But like, I wonder what the odds on Buffalo getting Marvin Harrison to be. Yeah, I don't have, Harrison Jr. is not one of the players. You know, they do put out these markets where, you know, a player to, you know, where's this player going to land?

And since Harrison Jr's, you know, pretty, you know, locked into the top four to picks, you know, four six, four through like six or seven or eight there. He doesn't have a market for that. But I think it would probably be a little too much for the bills, I think, what they're picking like 28th overall. Could be, could be, yeah, their 28th overall. Could be a big ask for them to get up inside the top 10. I see them probably more as a target to get, maybe go get Brian Thomas in the teens here.

But they'd have to give up a lot. And they don't necessarily have a lot of draft ammunition as well. They, you know, they, you know, traded their third round pick last year. And so that would be an interesting one. But I would think that that would be still a pretty big long shot. I would probably set the odds at like 50 to one for the bills to be able to trade up to get Marvin Harrison. You know, at that point, my whole thing is, is like if, if I'm Buffalo, and we're getting away from the props here.

I'm just talking strategy. If I'm not making a godfather offer to go up and get like Harrison, I'm just waiting. Like, why move into the teens for Brian Tom? Like, I'm just going to wait and take like Ricky Piel or Ladd McConkey or something. You know, like I don't see the value there in trading up to get the fourth best receiver in this class. That was just a scenario that came into mind. You mentioned about who's going to be a top 10 pick.

There is a prop on the board to be a top 10 pick. You know, Neighbors is. minus 3,500, you know, McCarthy's minus 900, if you think he falls a little bit. But the name I want to hit you guys with is the tight end out of Georgia, Brock Bowers, because so many folks are talking about Brock Bowers, and he's this great prospect. And, you know, people are thinking, hey, maybe the Chargers want to get their hands on him. If you take a tight end at five, you know, give me a break. Harbaugh, you've been there five minutes.

You should be fired immediately if you take him with the roster. You've got a simple there. I don't think Scott Barrett would agree with you. but yeah i don't care you can't take brock bowers at five with the roster that they have right now in los angeles what do you guys think are you going to bet to brock bowers because if you look at everybody else there tennessee all right Atlanta they don't need anybody chicago doesn't the jets are at number 10 and this is there the jets are playing for this year this is a one year deal for everybody there basically in new york do they say let's get

brock bowers in there when they have very competent veteran tight ends that can do the job Brock Bowers, you think you can make money on him being a top 10 pickies plus 145. Yeah, the Jets are the favorites to get them. It's a plus 200, but this is a prop where people, you know, it's pretty wide open. You know, the tight end position isn't valued as much as other positions. It's one of the least valuable overall in terms of contracts and just the way the team shape, build their team. So we did see Kyle Pitts go top eight.

T.J. Hawkinson was also a top 10 prospect. So it does happen, but I don't know if it's going to happen here. But Bowers would be a perfect fit for the Jets offense, you know, quite frankly. I kind of like, I can't believe what I'm saying, but I kind of like what the Jets have done this off season, getting a vertical threat in Mike Williams to play across from like, I do all everything, Garrett Wilson, and then get the run after the catch factor with Brock Bowers,

like this is a, it would be a pretty complete receiving core. And they have attacked the offensive line. They went out and got John Simpson, they got Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses. You know, this offensive line, they have bolstered it through free agency. So maybe offensive line isn't, isn't the priority that it previously was. But I still think, you know, Aaron Rogers and company probably is leaning more towards the offensive line, which could create a scenario where Ballers Falls, a little bit and slides into the teens here.

The Colts are the next favorites at the 15th overall pick at plus 340. And, you know, even there's the Bengals at plus 1,000. If he really takes a slide, they're picking 18th overall. So I love that. That's the spot right there. Yeah, they just signed Mike Kosicki, too, who is a complete detached tight end. So, and they only signed him to a one-year deal. The thing about the Jets with the offensive line is, Tom,

I completely understand. The fact that they made these signing is what makes them the intriguing Bauer spot because we know they have a very good defense. They lost Bryce Huff, but replaced them with Hassan Reddick. So, I mean, by the way, we have not even talked about a defensive player yet, which I know this is a fantasy podcast, but there's a legitimate chance. The top 10 picks are all offensive players. Let's go.

Good. This is going to be a great draft for fantasy for sure. Outside of the running back position. But, you know, we'll get to that. Like Dallas, whoever Dallas drafts. And Dallas, I still think Dallas is signing Zeke and is going to draft a running back. And that guy's going to get juiced up to high heaven for fantasy, whichever running back they draft.

But when it comes to the Jets, the one thing that you can say about their offensive line, all right, they signed Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moes. Tyron Smith is always hurt, by the way. And Morgan Moses is 33. They're both 33. Yeah, Moses is, Moses is more durable. He missed three games this past year. But again, 33.

The one thing you can, you can say is like, oh, maybe the Jets fall in love with, let's just say a Marius Miss, who is the Georgia offensive tackle who has eight career starts, but might be like the most athletically gifted tackle in the class. Could you say, because tackles, tackle is weird, man, because teams, there are very different tackles here. like Joe Alts a technician. Fugga from Oregon State's an asshole. And I mean that in a good way.

Yeah, like he's an asshole. So it's like, what do you want in your offensive tackle? So maybe the Jets are like, hey, we'll take this kind of raw guy who we think could be the best player in this class. And we'll hope Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses stay healthy for a little bit while he develops. Maybe Olu Foshanu's like that as well. You know, like we can take the tackle. We don't have to put him out there. week one. But if Tyron Smith inevitably gets hurt, he's been seasoned behind them. So you can still

see a very easy path to the Jets taking an offensive tackle. Honestly, Joe, I don't see them taking any I mean, just all their moves this offseason have kind of indicated like, we are going for this over the next year. Yeah. And then everyone's getting fired. Yeah, everybody's gone. Everybody's going to retire or like, you know, they're going to be out of the NFL. So that's why I kind of, I don't, I don't think they would take a MIMS or even a, a shot. who I think they'll go for maybe more of these more pro-ready prospects. That's why Bowers, Bowers kind of, he's a plug and play. I mean, that is the one glaring spot.

Since, since a freshman year in Georgia. Like this guy, he had the, you know, sitting in the college game for the last three years. This guy was ready to play big time, you know, professional football a couple years ago. It's, the Jets will be fascinating there sitting at 10. And they also, they don't have a whole lot of picks. So they could also be a spot where they slide down here a little bit. And maybe one of these tackle-needy teams, this is kind of right in that range where we could see a couple of these tackles go off.

So maybe if they decide that they don't want to prioritize the offensive line position, maybe they want to slide back and acquire a couple picks. So, you know, the Jets are, they're in play for multiple different moves here at 10 overall. Let's talk about the running back position. You know, it's something in fantasy we love to chat about. and, you know, Joe, you just mentioned the Cowboys, and they've been tied to a kid named Jonathan Brooks. Again, go over to FantasyPoints.com,

read the prospect guide. It's free. Jonathan Brooks is coming off an ACL, and I believe the Cowboys team doctor did the surgery or whatever, worked them out. So they've got intimate knowledge of Brooks. So everybody I see online is kind of pegging Brooks to the Cowboys. In your article, Brawley,

you have a different running back at a little farther and odds, 5,000 over at Bet MGM. Little farther. A lot of farther. A lot of. Yeah. Talk about your pick for the first running back off the board. Yeah, this was an Audrick estimate. He's, he was 50 to 1. He's been bet down. It looks like he's down to 30 to 1.

This was a strict value bet here. I don't think it's actually going to happen. His lines, his odds are kind of more in line with where I thought they should be about this 25 to 30 to 1 range. But Brooks, I mean, all these guys at the top of the class, have have their warts. As you said with Brooks, he's coming off a major injury. The Cowboys, they don't have a running back right now.

They want to take the chance that Brooks, you know, could, he might not be himself the entire season here. So, you know, Trey Benson is probably the cleanest prospect out of these top guys. But, I mean, Blake Corum's coming off a down season at Michigan after his own knee injury. He's on the smaller side. Marshal on Lloyd is, you know, bounces run. He's probably maybe the most athletic of these backs outside of Jalen Wright.

But so all these backs, there's a reason why there's no consensus, you know, round two back here. That's why I think this market's kind of ripe for taking a long shot prop. Estime, the reason why he fell a little bit was because he ran a 471 at the at the combine, but he cleaned that up a little bit at his pro day. He ran like a four, five, eight. So, you know, that's a little bit better. but yeah, I just thought his odds were a little too long here. He, you know, it's coming off of a really good college career at Notre Dame,

a strong inside runner, even had some decent hands. You know, he's capable as a receiver. So I thought just, I might take another long shot on this market, just because I don't think it's very clear, you know, who is going to take the running back? It's probably going to be the Cowboys, maybe the Chargers. But this market's kind of ripe for, a potential long shot just because the first running back off the board might not happen

until after 50 picks into the draft this year. Yeah. And then the running back is a position where always we get our fantasy loins get burned a little bit, right? Like teams trading up to be like, oh, what the hell? Like you just drafted a running back last year, dude. Seattle Seahawks last year. Yeah, Seattle was obviously that team last year.

Go Ken Walker in the second round. Oh, 22 and then two straight second round picks on. on running backs. The 49ers, I mean, they did that every year. Now, not now with McAfrey. But like, you're right about the Brooks thing with Dallas. Like, you want to talk about the Jets being on a one-year window? Yeah. So are the Cowboys. Dat Prescott's a free agent. They reportedly are not close on a new contract or they've even stopped negotiating. They're on a one-year window. Are you really going to trust the fact that, first and foremost, they have Cedley Lamb on offense. Michael Gallup was above.

Brandon Cook's is a year older. Are you really going to trust that offensive line? The Cowboys are heavy favorites to draft an offensive lineman in the first round. Are you really going to trust a running back coming off in ACL and probably a reunion with Zeke Elliott to be a foundational part of your offense? I don't know about the being interesting. So, yeah, I think Cowboys are probably the clear team here, maybe in the back end of the second round. That's kind of the first spot. Maybe the, I mean, the Chargers.

I mean, Harbock would go. 340 to draft Blake Corum. Now everyone kind of puts that together the connection of, okay, Corum went to Michigan, and they just assume Harbaugh's going to draft every Michigan player because he recruited them. Corum's an interesting case, though, because I don't think a lot of folks out there watch tons of college football, no matter what people say. And they kind of see the big teams, you know, you always see Georgia and Alabama and

Michigan, Ohio State, because they're on every weekend. So a lot of people saw Corum throughout the playoff. And, you know, if the charges are plus 340, I don't know if I like that as much as the Giants at 1400. I like the Panthers at plus 1,600. They've got to get somebody else in there besides, you know, Miles Sanders and, you know, the cast of scrubs they have and the Las Vegas Raiders at plus 1600. So I don't know.

Corum's an interesting guy. I know a lot of people like Michigan. They're a national program. So they're going to lay some money down on this thinking they know he's going to the chargers. But I don't know. I wouldn't be so sure of that. I think some other guys might jump in and snag him.

It feels like this is now. understand when you're betting like teams at like 15 to 1 to draft a player or 10 to 1, you only really need to hit one of those to be like, all right, I'm good. I can lose my other six bets. These running backs, though, it does feel like a money losing proposition to try to nail down a team. Oh, the exact location. Yeah, it's tough enough whenever we kind of know what range they might be drafted in,

you know, say somewhere in the middle of the first round or whatever, you know, trying to pick, pick out the spot like a new. John Robinson was going to be a first round pick last year. So nailing one of the three or four teams to draft him was pretty easy. This is wild to me. But yeah, a guy like Blake Coram, he could go anywhere from, you know, what let's say like the Chargers second round pick at 37 all the way. You know, he could be like outside the top 100 picks for all we know.

So I'm with you, Joe. It's, you know, we look at these, we try to narrow it down to these running back needy teams. But it's really tough to pick out what window some of these running backs are going to go in. right now. So probably those kind of markets, I'm probably going to stay away from now, unless we get some sort of good intel that this team is eyeing, you know, this type of player in, you know, this round. Drake does raise a good point, though. Like, while the Cowboys and the Chargers are like the two teams that have the single most, like the Cowboys running back void is so glaringly obvious. Everybody knows they're going to draft one and going to draft one early.

But there are some teams who are like, all right, if we don't get one, like the Panthers for, instance. They can say, all right, Miles had a terrible year, but our offensive line was atrocious. Our whole offense was atrocious. The Panthers could probably talk themselves into saying, you know, we have other needs. We don't need to draft a running back. But there are teams like the Carolina Panthers where you're like, the guy who's there who's the starter is not standing on solid grounds. Amir White, you know, Miles Sanders is not standing on solid ground. Could Houston replace Damien Pierce, you know, even though they just- They got Joe Mixon, who's, you know, towards the end of his, you know, he's, he's been

ended him, but yeah. Yeah, but he's been falling off here the last couple of years. So, you know, does he have how many good years is he allowed? And we, we see the running back position. We turn through these players more than every other position. So as soon as you think you're, you're solid at the running back position, you know, just wait a couple games into the season. And you're turning through these guys. Just ask the Cleveland Browns last year, a major injury to Nick Chobbin. They're picking, you know, Kareem Hunt off up off the street. They really left that position. They thought they were good with just Jerome Ford behind them.

What if the Rams do it to us again? Like, hiring because Sean McVeigh is an F-em and dump-em type of guy with his running backs, man. He goes through. He uses them hard. Like, and then, and they find their way into his. dog house for like the seemingly like like darrell henderson was in and out of his dog house like a hundred times over so what's up with you know kairn williams right now he's a first round pick for fantasy but like scared to death are always a team that can draft a running back so especially with this class where there's no obvious there's good players though there are good players it's

just and the rams will draft the rams will be drafting a running back in that like third to fifth ground, you know, they don't have a great backup situation. So they're, they're, yeah, I think they've been one of these teams that maybe they get Estimate because they really turned in, you know, they go out and, uh, improve their offensive line, the interior of the offensive line. And, uh, they were really a downhill running team last year with Kyron Williams. And estimate is a, it would be kind of a great fit for, uh, what they're going to West.

Yes, exactly. Let me get you guys out of here on this. Cause we're just wetting your appetite, folks with the draft props again. Go over to fantasy points.com. read the free draft guide, read Tom's prop articles. They're all over the site and they're free for you to read. There's a great prop out on over under quarterbacks taken in the first round and the numbers four and a half. So I want to say, we know, we know Caleb, Drake May, J.J. McCarthy, all right.

And then for who did I miss here? You miss Jaden Daniels. Jayden Daniels. Yeah, the Heisman trophy winner. How can I forget him? So then it comes to Bo Nix. Then it comes to Michael Pennick. Do we think one of Spencer Rattler, who knows, let's get crazy.

Do we think you got to lay a hundred bucks down. Mr. Dolan, I'll start with you. You're going over, you're going under four and a half quarterbacks taking around one. I'm going to plug the website while I do this. Brett Whitefield has six going in his latest mock draft. So all we need is one of the extra two. He has Knicks and Pennix. I prefer Pennix.

Teams might prefer Knicks. By the way, the Denver Broncos are minus odds to draft to draft Bo Nix. Now, like we saw at the Tennessee Titans last year, that doesn't necessarily have to be in the first round, but they're minus odds to draft Bo Nix. So all we need is one of those two to go. I'm going to take the over time.

Yeah, I'm going with the over as well. We saw last year, you know, some of these guys can fall at times. But even the one problem I have with this is like, there's like three clear, you know, two clear QB needy teams after the top of the board. it's with the Broncos and Raiders, and maybe you can throw the Giants in there.

And they all pick toward, you know, are the Broncos really going to spend the 12th overall pick for Bo Nix? Or is the, are the Raiders going to spend the 13th overall pick for Knicks or Pennix? That's what makes this bet a little scary for me. But we also see if Denver comes calling, and they want to trade up to the back end of the first round, I think if you're a team like, you know,

I don't know. whoever it is picking in the late 20s or late 30s, you got to you got to take that call. I mean, we saw what happened to the Carolina Panthers this past year. They draft the quarterback and that roster was bottom of the barrel and that quarterback was not ready to play. This Broncos roster, I think it might be the war, you know, you said the Patriots earlier, Joe, the Broncos might have the worst roster in the league

right now. So if they come calling to move back into the first round, you better take that call because that first round pick or whatever pick you get from them next year could turn out to be very, very valuable. The problem for the Broncos is, and I know we want to get out of here, Drake, but just to continue this discussion a little bit, the problem for the Broncos is they don't have a second round pick this year. So if they want to trade back into the first, they're going to need a first next year. I don't know if they're going to do that. But on the other hand, the Raiders have the 44th overall pick. The Giants have the 47th overall pick.

So those are teams that you can see trading back into. maybe you get a second this year, a second next year, a third this year, something like that, where teams can coop value just to move back a couple of spots. And on the other hand, what if Tom the Patriots move back and then have extra ammo? So one of those teams trading back, maybe the Broncos trade back for a team that's trading up for Brock Bowers. They can then recoup extra ammo to go get their quarterback in the back end. So that's why I like the over because of the maneuverability that some of these teams might have. have throughout the drive. Yeah, that makes, that scenario makes a little more sense because,

yeah, the Broncos are kind of like in a window where we could see some offensive tackles going off the board. So maybe they, you know, slide back with a team that's really, you know, maybe the dolphins or one of these teams that are that kind of need an offensive tackle that might want to move up. And maybe, maybe that justifies the, the bone Knicks pick a little bit more. If you, you can maybe grab an extra pick or two and still take him in the, you know, in the 20s somewhere. So that's a scenario. I like a lot more for over four and a half quarterbacks. Just to be contrarian, I'll take the under, maybe some of these teams late think,

you know what, why spend the extra money to move into the first? Maybe I can snag one of these two guys early in the second round. Either way, it's fun. This is the best part of talking about the NFL draft. Yeah, Drake, and that's a great point. Like maybe they look at it like, hey, there's Pennix or Nick. You know, like I have both of these guys kind of graded similarly. You know, maybe I can wait it out and I'll just.

just get the guy who falls a little bit. So that that does work for you in that argument that, you know, maybe under four and a half just because there are two decent options that would remain on the board there. There you go. Folks, if you're on Twitter and you're not a porn bot, make sure you're following Joe at FG underscore Dolan. Tom is at Tom Brawley.

I'm at Drake Fantasy. The wrestling tweets will be done. It's WrestleMania weekend is over with. So we can now get back into football. But this is fun, guys. I really appreciate Tom. You spend a little time with us here in the two points. stance. Folks, get over to fantasy points.com. Check out that prospect guide. Get signed up for the

2024 C and make sure you're following us on YouTube because there's so much great content over there from all our great shows. The Data versus Film Show, love it. Brett Whitefield, Scott Barrett, make sure you get over to YouTube and check that stuff out. Anything else, fellas? I'm doing well, Drake. That's good. Go enjoy the masters, everybody, and enjoy the nice weather. We'll see you next time in the two points dance.