Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Breakout Candidates + NFC East Breakdown

Episode Date: June 13, 2024

Welcome to NFL First Read, the ultimate podcast for all NFL enthusiasts! Hosted by Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino, this show brings you the most insightful and up-to-date analysis of the NFL landscape. In this episode, Brett and Joe reveal their top picks for players who are poised to breakout in 2024. From rising stars to under-the-radar talents, discover who to keep an eye on in the upcoming season. But that's not all—after discussing the breakout candidates, the hosts dive deep into the NFC East, breaking down each team's strengths, weaknesses, and key storylines. Whether you're a die-hard fan or just looking to stay informed, NFL First Read has got you covered. Tune in for expert analysis, bold predictions, and everything you need to know heading into the 2024 NFL season. Where to find us: httpp//twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We are your first read. This is a film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Lockdown and myself, Brett Whitefield, the C-O-O-of-FantcyPoints.com. This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. If you are an audio-only partaker, we want you to get the best experience possible. This podcast does have a video element, so make sure you head over to the YouTube channel and click subscribe and turn notifications on. Joe, let's get after it. Brett Whitefield, what is going on? my guy.

I know that you've been thinking day and night about how the smoke turkey went. And I'm here to report. Oh, I crushed it. You crushed it? I absolutely crushed it. The guests were happy. I cooked a little faster than I thought it would.

If I wasn't already obsessed with the idea of smoking meats, being successful on my maiden smoke is going to take this to another level. We got ribs on tap for Sunday, Father's Day. So, yeah, that's, yeah. I'm nervous, of course, but sure, very excited, very dialed it. How are you, man? I'm good. So nailing it on your first try is sort of like hitting an absolute bomb off the 18th T-box.

It's like, it doesn't matter how bad you played for that entire round of golf. You're coming back soon because you just hit a bomb on 18. So I get that, man. There's always that, dude, that's the thing about golf. There's always that one hole, that one shot where you're like, man, if I could just keep doing that, I'll be, I'll love this game. But then you never quite play as often enough. But I know that you've had plenty of golf in your recent history. So hopefully you're feeling okay, man.

You kind of exhaust some different muscles when you're on the links. It's funny because I compete in a very physical sport, Joe, in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. But I still went. This past week, we golfed seven rounds in about five days flat. So it was incredible how sore my body was, even though I'm a very active person. my hands, my forearms, my feet, my lower back, everything was tweaking. But hey, man, we got it done. I was really overall pleased with my performance over the week, especially considering.

I haven't been golfing that long, only about three or four years. I've seen you on the golf course before. I've seen it. It wasn't. You remember. Yeah. Well, I'm assuming you've really elevated your game, but. Yes.

Yes, I have a little bit. But, I mean, it's still, dude, you know, it's a sport that you need, like, insane consistency to keep developing. like, you know, I'm at the point where I take off, you know, a few strokes a year right now. So shooting low 100s or high 90s is I'm very happy with a day like that. Well, look, if you're consistent, then you can break out on the golf course, just like maybe there's going to be some breakout players this year in the world of the NFL. And so that's our lead topic today, right? Breakout guys at the offensive skill positions.

That was an awesome segue. and I hate to ruin the segue. But before we get into this, we got to talk about the giveaway we're doing, Joe. Yes. I want to win the giveaway, but I don't think I am eligible. I want to win the giveaway. And we might even talk about the player the giveaway is about today. But the giveaway, so the best way you can help us, we are a new podcast feed.

First read is brand new. I think it does appear in the Fantasy Points Classic feed for now, but that will be changing if it hasn't already. So the best way you can help us without spending a money and sending me a check personally is to go to the first read feed on either Spotify or Apple Podcasts and rate and review us. Five star rating with a nice review. And if you tweet a screenshot of that on Twitter,

that makes you eligible for a Dalton-Kincaid autographed helmet. And we are giving that away. In fact, by the time you end up listening to this, it's possible we've already announced the winner of that giveaway. But anyways, if you still haven't done that, please go over to either feed or both feeds even. That would help us even more. rate in review screen cap it tweet it you're eligible for the giveaway boom all right thank you

yes and uh i would like to win that helmet as well i don't think tray's going to pick me though so yeah yeah yeah yeah well let's jump in break break out candidates joe we kind of i kind of know who your guys are i did not arm you with who my guys are in that should be fun yeah so why don't we do this how about you we're going to do like a qb a running back a couple receivers and a tight end each of us. So let's let's start there. Why don't you throw out a QB and we'll talk about him. All right. Here's the thing about QBs is that I feel like the inventory is pretty light on guys that I feel good about breaking out. And I know it's the dismay of you. I feel like Jordan Love's already broken out. So I stayed away from that. The guy that I want to settle in on is a team that while we've not done a ton of episodes of this podcast,

if there's anything we have done, it's hype up the Indianapolis Colts a little bit. And so I'm going to lean into Anthony Richardson as my breakout quarterback candidate. And there's a couple of reasons for this. I think I'll start with the skill set of Anthony Richardson. He doesn't have any limitations. He has access to the entire field as a thrower and obviously a big dynamic runner of the football. The real challenge here is staying healthy.

And obviously he's an underwept player, both the college and pro level. But I get excited about Shane Steichen. And when I think about the offense that he was able to engineer this past season with the Colts with Gardner Minshu primarily, as a quarterback with the injuries that they sustained throughout that football team and on on the offensive side of the football. Jonathan Taylor really wasn't Jonathan Taylor for a lot of that season, still trying to sort out their weapons.

And he got a lot out of that unit. And then you go back to Philly and what he got out of Jalen Hertz and how Jalen Hertz looked without Shane Steichen gets me excited for the future there with Anthony Richardson and that pairing, but also the offensive line, right? You talk about football still won in the trenches and you need O line play. And I think that this Colts offensive line is going to, give Anthony Richardson a real opportunity to be successful back there. They'll be able to run the football with Jonathan Taylor.

And I think that's going to put Anthony Richardson in a great opportunity to be a dual threat quarterback, to win in the play action game. And those are areas where you feel like he can be really successful. And I like the weapons that he has more right now than, of course, I did last year with Michael Pittman back and a handsomely paid wide receiver now. They got A.D. Mitchell in the second round. And I feel like there's a, you can have questions about A.D. Mitchell, but you can't question the talent.

it. And I think he's in a great spot to unlock that. Josh Downs in year two. Welcome back, Jolani Woods after really flashing as a rookie missing last season. Healthy Jonathan Taylor. I feel like it's a great situation for Anthony Richardson to really be successful. And, you know, if if the reps and being kind of just a player that has limited experience aren't too much to overcome, I think he's going to have a big year. Yeah. So you stole the quarterback I wanted to do. and I really feel like when I scoured the league for breakout candidate quarterbacks, he's the glaringly obvious one. The one I get to,

the one that I picked, we'll get to in a minute, is sort of cheating. And we'll talk about that in a minute. But the things he does well translate immediately to the Shane Stuyken offense. And I think that's what really excites me. The one thing I will say about him is he does have to overcome a little bit of accuracy concerns. That was sure coming out.

And then even last year, I think in the four games he played or whatever, his accurate ball rate was, or sorry, his catchable ball rate was 71%, which would have ranked him, you know, down in the 30s among like 50 eligible QBs with like 75 dropbacks. So that's not great. It's also a really, really, really small sample size. So as that season went on, I'd like to think that that would have got better. I think Stuyken's going to do a really good job of giving him some layups and some easier throws, try to build that confidence, get the ball moving, you know, that way. He is a really good situation as well with the offensive line. You mentioned the pass catchers, the run game. So I definitely think he is the breakout candidate to watch.

I think you and I both picked him to be the comeback player of the year, right? Oh, I don't know if I'd say that. I think there's too many candidates. I think between Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rogers, yeah, I don't know. It would be tough. Okay. Well, that said, I like your pick. So I can't disagree with it.

I think all the writing is on the wall for him to be awesome, especially with what he does in the run game. It's just, it's so powerful, you know. The quarterback I pick Joe, and you're going to be so mad at me because we did exchange texts about this guy. And it's Jordan Love. Oh, you did it. Wow.

I know, this feels like a hedge, Brett. This feel, you bet, I feel like you've been really just kind of not wanting to buy in on Jordan Love. And now here you are. Now I'll give you the floor. I'll get out of the way. I want to hear what you have to say, but it's, it's a wait. It's always been a wait and see thing for me because

Jordan Love has played seven good games in the NFL. And we'll get to the, I have a slew of numbers from the fantasy points data suite that just blew me away. And I didn't want to pick him because it is cheating a little bit because he does have those seven

games under his belt. So he kind of broke out at the end of last year. However, my other options were like Bryce Young, which we've already waxed poetically about. Well, I did at least. Not him, the situation. Will Levis? I don't, I'm not calling a breakout there. He's got a he's got a improved situation as well, but I saw enough on tape that scared me to death last year.

So I don't necessarily want to do that. And then I'm like into the Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert angle, which is kind of trolling the masses because people already think those guys are good. So I don't know. I didn't know what to do. So I went with Jordan Love. And here's why, Joe,

weeks one through 11 last year. He was bad. He was objectively bad at quarterback. I went on every fantasy points, podcast we had. I was on John Hanson's show every Wednesday morning talking about how bad Jordan Love was playing. Here's some of his ranks using the fantasy points data suite. 18th in catchable ball rank weeks 1 through 11. 76.4%. 18th and accurate ball rate. So when we talk about accuracy like accurate ball, that's your high end bucket throws where you're, you're perfectly putting

the ball on the receiver's hands. You're locating that ball to the highest degree. 51% there. He ranked 21st. This is out of 35 eligible QBs, by the way. 21st and off-target percentage. 26th and turnover-worthy throw rate, 4.4%. He was turning the ball over. His touchdown interception ratio was 16 to 10, those first 11 weeks of the season

and just an 84.1 pasture rating. And then on Thanksgiving Day against the Detroit Lions, Jordan Love decided, I'm the freaking man. And from week 12 through 18, Joe, third and catchable ball right, up from 18th, 79.9%. Seventh, an accurate ball rate, up from 18th,

54.4%. Fourth, an off-target throw percentage, up from 21st at 14.2%. Second in turnover-worthy throw percentage, and this is probably the biggest point, the biggest improvement point for Jordan Love is he stopped turning the ball over. He went from 26th in turnover-worthy throw-weight for the first 11 weeks of the season to second.

No, only one quarterback, I think it was Brock Purdy, protected the ball at a higher rate than Jordan Love did. 1.3% turnover to throw rate for those final eight weeks. 16 to 1 touchdown interception ratio, 113.5 passer rating. And then on top of all that, Joe, when you put on the tape, you saw a guy who looked like he had his coming out party. Like he looked the part. Other than that, the final game against San Francisco, I think he got away with some things there. both quarterback said, to be honest with you. He was pretty much awesome. It reminded me of Mahomes' rookie, or not rookie season, second season where he just absolutely blew the doors off everyone.

So, yeah, the big, big fan of Jordan Love. Yeah, I'm in on Jordan Love. And I think one of the reasons that you could point to for the gradual ascension here, and of course, you mentioned a kind of a struggle there to start the season, think about the past catchers, right? I mean, right now we look at Green Bay is having a ton of youth and quality when it comes to their receiving options. But going into the season, I mean, you're talking about two rookies and two second year players at wide receiver and a couple of rookie tight ends. I mean, I think it's, it's a big ask of a developing quarterback to be surrounded by developing weapons. And again, we look at that differently now that the season has played out. You feel like maybe Green Bay has the

the deepest collection of talented young pass catchers in the NFL, but that had to come to fruition. And I think it makes sense that it took some time. It took a little bit of a ramp up for Jordan Love to kind of reach that peak. But now the expectations are high. And boy, oh, boy, if he replicates that second half for an entire season, this guy's going to be a dude in the NFL if he's not already. Absolutely. All right, we're going to get into the rest of our breakout candidates. But before we do, we have to take a short break. All right, Joe, I also cheated a second time. You said maybe look at some of the rookie quarterbacks if you can't find a guy you like and so i also picked another one i don't want to spend a lot of time talking about j j mccarthy but i do want to mention i think as far as the

rookie quarterbacks go i think he's in line for a nice breakout when you look at the situation he has to deal with probably the he is a top three offensive tackle duo in the NFL in really good pass catchers so you're talking about a guy he's going to get protected in the past and you know dropping back not going to take a lot of sacks or hits and then he's got really good pass catches to throw to I feel really good about J.J. McCarthy breaking out. He was also like you'd be one of the draft, and we can leave it at that. I'm excited for J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. I think that's a good call-up. Ready, just go to running backs here. Is that the position you like to go to next?

Throw your running back. See, this is where, and when I shared my answers with you, and again, I don't know your answers, you felt some type of way about my guys. And I didn't feel like that was with Anthony Richardson. I think it was with the rest of them. So I'm guessing this will be met with maybe some resistance for you. But my running back is Amir White from the Las Vegas Raiders. I think the opportunity for him in Vegas is so good. Josh Jacobs out. And obviously he's been a high volume ball carrier for that football team. And we know what this team wants to be under Antonio Pierce. I want to physical and run the football. And I think their quarterback situation certainly suggests that being

necessary for that to be part of their winning formula this coming season. And so a run heavy team with a clear path to opportunity. Josh Jacobs out. The only addition that they made at the running back position was Alexander Madison. And I think Alexander Madison stinks out loud. I don't think there's any meaningful competition for carries in Vegas in terms of taking away from Zemir White other than, hey, we just need a breather here. Well, hold on, hold on. What have you seen from Zemir White that says he's, he is significantly better than Alexander Madison? I'm glad you asked me that, Brett Whitefield because the last four weeks of 2023 happened.

The last four weeks where he was the lead back. He was third in the last four weeks of the season in rushing yards. He had 200-yard games against the chiefs in Denver. He averaged 114 scrimmage yards in those four games. He's 24 years old, 6 foot 215, loaded with physical talent. And I mean, I think the downside here might be

just that the offensive line, I think, is something that has a lot of questions with the Raiders. but there's going to be volume. I think this guy could touch the ball 275, 300 times this year, put together some numbers. And like at least from a fantasy perspective, be a pretty productive guy. You nailed it there.

So like I'm not a Zemir white guy when you set your list and I said, we'll brawl about some things. Zemir was like part of it. There's another one later that we'll get to. But Zemir to me, from an opportunity standpoint, Joe, I think you're spot on. He's going to break out just because,

opportunity is going to be there. Like even if he absolutely stinks and he touches the ball 270 times, we'll call that a breakout, right? Because he'll probably go over a thousand yards from scrimmage, you know, five plus touchdowns. Yeah, that'd be a breakout considering where he's been in his career. Absolutely. So you nailed it from that standpoint. I'm just not a Zemir White guy. Maybe it's my pre-draft bias kicking in. I saw a guy that lacked vision, lacked burst and couldn't make people miss. When I go into the fantasy point data suite and just see how Zemir White played on that four-game stretch, it says the same thing. You know, 0.13 forced misattles per attempt last year.

That rate, you know, near the bottom of the barrel as far as running backs go. Maybe he's a little more bursty than I thought he was, but I still see vision concerns on tape. But ultimately, the opportunity is going to be there. We do know that Antonio Pierce wants to be physical. And Jemir White is definitely physical. If you're going to say anything about him, it's that he will run with authority. He finishes his runs with power. I think he still, he put up a really good yards after contact per carry last year.

I think he was in the two nines, which is solid. I think that was top 10 among NFL running back. So even though he's not making guys miss, he's still making the most out of those interactions and generating a lot of yards after contact. So I think that's solid for him. That with the opportunity should yield to pretty good results. Yeah, I think also,

I know that this is not really a talking point that we get into with running backs, but he's had a nice incubation period of two years in the NFL where it's like, all right, you're behind Josh Jacobs, not getting a ton of opportunity. You feel like he's going to be ready. That's what I'm kind of getting at there. I know that a lot of running backs kind of enter the NFL in their prime, but he's still so young, 24 years old right now,

with two years of experience with not a lot of opportunity, just feels prime to me, Brett Whitefield. How do you feel about their offensive line? I'm concerned about it. Okay. Yeah, I'm concerned. I'm concerned about it. My running back, Joe, was one, Tage Spears of the Tennessee Titans

player. I know they signed Tony Pollard and they gave him decent money. However, I still think Tajay Spears winds up being the leadback somehow, some way. When I look at the fantasy points data suite, and I see all the metrics, 10th in yards after contact per carry last year at 2.92, 20th of mistackles forced at 0.21. He had 52 receptions as a rookie as well. And I think this is where he makes his money, right? He's in the past game.

25% of his routes came wide or in the slot. I think that's also really comforting. that tells, I mean, I know it's a new coaching staff, but like when a guy is being used that way as a running back, that tells you he has a unique skill set, right? Like he's not, he's not just getting all those targets out of the backfield. He's moving in the slot and wide. They view him as a past game weapon.

He had 16 force mistackles on those 52 catches, and he ranked top five in yards after catch 9.08. His efficiency on his receptions wasn't great, but when you consider the fact that he was targeted on average behind the line of scrimmage, makes you feel a lot better about that. and you see that 9.1 yards after catch, feel really good about all those metrics.

And then on tape, the guy has this weird ability to just teleport. Like he, his jump cut is disgusting. And he, you see that elusiveness in the way he runs routes, sets up linebackers, gets them off balance,

breaks the other way. You saw the scene, I think that was the last senior bill you were at, right? Joe, Tadjay Spears year. And he had a couple routes against linebackers in the, in the one-on-one drills that just made your mouth water. Just like, holy. crap, this guy can absolutely destroy

linebackers in the NFL. And so I feel really good about him being the lead back there. And I think with Derek Henry gone, Tony Pollard being a similar player, I think he's going to break out. Yeah, Tysay Spears was so fun to watch a two lane. And if I could spike the ball for a second, I remember one of my,

I want a lot of money on this, just to be honest with you, the USC bowl game. And I predicted, I, I've had some cash on this one. And it's like, I don't think USC can tackle Taj Spears. They can't tackle anybody anyway. ways, but much less Tai J. Spears. And lo and behold, he goes out there and has 17 rushes, 205 yards, four touchdowns. It's like, oh, yep, they can't tackle him. And the only concern

with Tai J. Spears is kind of like some knee stuff that you feel like is maybe going to limit his career, but he's only year two. He's 23 years old. I'm excited for him. And he was on my short list, to be honest with you. I think the presence of Tony Pollard was probably the piece that cautioned me just a little bit, although I think he'll be effective in his own right. But then I think as you extended offensive line concerns to me with Samir White and the Raiders, I think you can definitely have those same questions about Spears with the Titans. And then just whatever it is about that Bengals offense, and of course I'm going to tie Callahan to that because he's the head coach. Like, dude, they could never run the ball in Cincinnati.

And so I'm hopeful that that could be different in Tennessee because I love Taj Spears. But those were some of the limiting factors that concern me about Taj Spears this year. that's all fair. I will say that Joe Mixon was a fantasy demon for many years. So even though the efficiency wasn't great, you do, you do think maybe Taj could get some of that work where it's, efficiency is not awesome,

but they make it work with what they have. All right, we're going to jump to receivers, but before we do, we have to take another quick break. Joe, receivers, I told you to pick two. I already forgot one of who you picked,

but why don't you throw the first guy out that that you wanted to talk about. I feel, is this one that you don't like? What's that? Yeah, yeah, I don't like this one. You don't like this because you wanted to have it or you don't like this one because you think it's a bad choice. It wouldn't have been my choice.

Oh, well, let's go. We're talking about Jahan Dotson from the commanders. He's still here, man. First round pick two years ago, plenty of flashes of rookie. What'd you say? Should not have been a first round pick. Well, hater.

This is great. I'm glad that we have this ammunition going into the season so I can monitor this and remind you of how incorrect you were. But Jahan Dotson, whether Brett Whitefield believes it or not, was a first round pick. And I thought he had plenty of flashes as a rookie. And you're expecting him to kind of like take that year to jump. And it didn't happen. And I don't really blame that on John Dotson. I think that Washington offense last year was an absolute disaster.

I think Eric B. Enemy was terrible. I thought he, the way that he, what he. he asked Sam Howell to do was insane to me, like ignoring the run and just putting everything on Sam Howell and like no layups, just asking Sam Howell to read it and rip it after coming out of a Phil Longo offense. I mean, it was disgusting. And so yeah, no kidding that Jahan Dotson wasn't able to take a year or two jump because I think between Eric Beanie and Sam Howell, those guys were an absolute mess. Now, I'm concerned about the rookie quarterback situation with Jaden Daniels and Washington and maybe that limiting the production. But I also

and I hate to feel like I have confidence or belief in Cliff Kingsbury because I've never had that. But I feel like at least structurally that offense will lend itself more favorably to taking advantage of space and maximizing more of what Jehan Dodson can be as a past catcher. I mean, go back to the tape at Penn State. I thought this dude was a dog, man, like his ability to just play above his weight class and be physical and win at the catch point. But I think he's also a good separator with good ball skills. I think he's dynamic, man.

And I think that this new year is going to set up well for him to kind of capture, recapture some of the hype that existed during his rookie season. Okay. You make good points about the Washington offense. It was a disaster last year. The Sam Howell thing was gross at best. I do think as much as I don't love Cliff Kingsbury, it is probably an upgrade to what they were working on last year,

specifically to Jahan Dotson's skill set. I'm a little concerned, though. You do have to deal with the rookie. QB, and then on top of that, I did not see a good separator in Jahan Dotson at the college level. He had an absurd amount of contested catch situations that weren't necessarily the QB's fault in college. I think he has route running chops, but I think he lacks that short area of quickness and ability to separate late. That's what gets him in trouble. He did impress me as a rookie, though.

I will say the rookie tape was actually pretty good. Last year, I did not feel that way. Even though the offense had a lot of issues, he struggled mightily. and there isn't really a redeeming stat to find on him that pertains specifically to him. Yards per route run was, you know, bottom of the barrel, first downs per target, bottom of the barrel, first downs per route run, bottom of the barrel. So like, these are all, you know, really sticky metrics that kind of predict future success. And so I'm a little skittish on Dotson because of that.

I will say there is one stat that makes me go, okay, that's interesting. And it doesn't really relate to him as much as it does, that situation. you talked about, and that is he ranked a hundred and sixth in catchable target rate, Joe, or catchable target percentage. Only 76.3% of his targets were catchable. So, I mean, you know, just do basic math. If you can get him to league average there, how much more efficient does his season look? How much higher do those yards per route run get up?

Maybe we need to come up with an adjusted yards per route run stat here where it's like, it's based on catchable. If quarterback play was the same for every player, what, what would we say his yards for outrun was if we could find a way to adjust that. I'm sure Scott Barrett could figure it out. I think that'd be valuable because I want to know how many yards were left on the table because Jehan Dotson ranked 106th and catchable target percentage. That is absurd if you think about it.

That's down there with like Drake London and Kyle Pitts who, you know, played with Marietta and Heineke. So that's really, really bad. Sam Hall was not good last year. That is the one stat that gives me some pause. Like maybe we can get this guy back to his rookie form. And, you know, I'm just not. fully buying it. I think Terry McLaren's good. Oh, there is one other good thing. Curtis Samuel departs.

That's a lot of targets there. Luke McCaffrey comes in, but he's a rookie. Ben Sinat comes in, but he's a rookie. So there is some extra weight to be lifted here. Maybe Dodson is the guy who lifts that weight, thus leading to a breakout. Over under 800 yards, John Dotson in 2024. Is that your line or is that an action? I just made it up. No, yeah, it's literally my line. Gosh, I would defer to you're going over. over over i'll defer to whatever chris wex projections say when i haven't looked specifically at dots and i will i'm sure when we get off the the pod here but i'll defer to that i'm inclined to say slightly under i just think with the rookie quarterback one who likes to run a lot i think they're really

going to emphasize the run game a little bit austin eclare brian robinson jaden daniels get that going and then terry will be the focal point of the past game so i'll go slightly yeah we'll talk more commanders here a little bit. True. That is true. All right. I guess I'll throw my first receiver. And I think you're going to like this one. I wanted to get a chunk of this offense because there's a lot of vacate targets. 238 targets are vacated in the Buffalo Bills offense. And, you know, I really want to get a chunk. You already claimed one of the players here. So I'm going to go with Talil Shakir, wide receiver. Listen, from an advanced metric standpoint, there isn't anything to not like about this guy. And then you just watch the tape, Joe, and you're like, whoa.

this dude can freaking play and I go back to my pre-draft evaluation on him. I had a, I think he was my fifth highest scored receiver in that class. I remember that's the Chris Olivae class, Garrett Wilson, Jameson, Drake London. That was a really good freaking class and I loved Khalil Shakir. So I'm buying in, man. I think this is going to be a big year for him. Just some quick metrics to throw at you here. 68% of his catches were either a first down or touchdown last year.

That is a, that's a pretty predictive stat. I know Scott Barrett doesn't love it that much. He's our metrics guy. I really like it. I think the trend lines that I've seen is when a wide receiver gets well over that 50% mark, that's when they start increasing that target volume significantly. He's up at 68%. Another one.

First and catchable target percentage at 91%. So Josh Allen and him have a clear connection where for whatever, that led the NFL, 91%. I know Shakir wasn't a high. high volume guy. I'm sure with the larger sample, that number naturally creeps back toward average. But still, by the way, that was with an 8.6 ADD, which is no, that's nothing to shake your head at among all players that were like above 85%. He by far had the highest AD. So that's, I like that. First and yards per target. He led the entire NFL in yards per target. Again, great metric,

semi-predictive, two yards per out run. Very predictive for a guy in is what second, second year as a fifth round pick in a kind of a bit role at first that's a really impressive number i think all things are are pointing to the sky for calio chakir i think he he completely breaks out this year love what i's oh by the way joe brady's favorite play you know past concept is shock that play he ran at ls u with jemar chase and jason josepherson well clear secure has been the focal point of shock the iteration he runs at buffalo he gets all kinds of downfield targets on those slot fades or slot wheels He's been awesome. I think he caught six passes, 20 yards or more downfield last year.

I mean, he can do it all. I'm a big fan. Yes, a great, great analysis by you there, Brett Whitefield. What I love to point out about Kalashekir is how complete of a player he is. This isn't a guy that just runs choice routes from the slot, right? This is a down the field guy. This is a big time yards after the catch guy, clutch. Josh Allen trusted him in big moments down the stretch.

My favorite stat maybe on Kalil Shakir is that from week seven on, on 60. less targets than Stefan Diggs, he had more receiving it. It's disgusting. Like what? And that's, I think that's such an important note to make when you think about the bill's transitioning away from Stefan Diggs. It's not like they transitioned away from 2020, Stefan Diggs. It was the one that couldn't produce more than Khalil Shakir on 60 more targets

from week seven on. It's insane. Opportunity is going to be there for him in a big way. I think he can, I think he can have, I don't want to get too crazy. But like, if you think about what. Amman Ra St. Brown means to that lion's offense. I think I could see similar things from Kalos Shakir. Ooh, I love that.

And you know what? You can make the argument. Shakir's a more dynamic player because his ability downfield is probably a little bit superior to Amman Ra. Come down, Brett. I love, dude, I love Amman Ra. I'm just saying, Shakir. Who! Shakir can win vertically.

I know. I know Slop fades. It was a good. That's a hell of a call out by you there. I mean, I went back and watched his Target reel a couple weeks ago. And I was, you see those moments, Miami game against the Chargers and even some of the off script stuff. Josh started to really go to him. And this offense wants to be middle of the field centric.

I think when you think about the bodies that they brought to play on the outside of the perimeter. Yeah. To kind of free up Kincaid and Shakir and Cook and where those guys really win in the middle of the field, opportunity is going to be there. I think those will be your two leading target getters this season for the bills. And that's no small deal. This is a Josh Allen offense. This is a very prolific offense.

over the last four years, vacated opportunity, guys stepping into it, you look at Kilos Shakir and he's going to eat. He beat Sauce Gardner for like a 40 piece in the Jets game. Yeah, he sure did. That was a hell would throw a great route. Dolphin Cade took out three guys on a block, just catching run.

It was, yeah, that was, yeah. Are we doing lockdown bills right now or first read? Brother, I'll tell you, I'm enjoying what's going on here. I'm enjoying this. All right, throw out your second wide receiver, and then we'll do mine. Yeah, my second line receiver is Emmanuel Sam. Oh, I mean, Marvin Mims, Marvin Mims from the Denver Broncos, who reminds me a lot of

Emmanuel Sanders, who Broncos fans should know quite well. I'll tell you what, one of my frustrations for, I guess, the 20, 23 season was watching Russell Wilson play football. And boy, oh boy, did I think one of the guys that didn't benefit at all from that was Marvin Mims. And it's crazy to me because Russell Wilson should have gotten Marvin Mimbs. Mims, far more involved. 17 yards per catch as a rookie.

Not enough opportunity. I think he had like 100 yards in a week two. It's like, bro, did you not like that? You didn't enjoy that, Russ? You didn't want to go more there with the football? I love the skill set. I think I like, like I said, there's a lot of Emmanuel Sanders here in terms of, I think the separation ability. I think the ball skills, kind of a smaller guy, but still playing big,

being able to win vertically. There's so much to like here. And Denver's not. said goodbye to Jerry Judy. There's vacated targets there for sure. I don't trust anything with Tim Patrick. I think Cortland Sutton, his presence benefits Marvin Mims. And I think with the new quarterbacks that are just going to run the offense, man, that's such a like an obvious thing to say, but like when you think about just Denver, like just having a quarterback that will run the offense, I don't know who it's going to be, whether it's Bo Nix or Jared Stidham, probably not

Zach Wilson. But those guys are going to run the offense. And I think it's going to be such a benefit to Marvin Mims who showcase himself as a very dynamic playmaker as a rookie, albeit in limited opportunities. And I'm excited to see that really kind of flesh itself out this year and him to produce because I was a big fan of him coming out of Oklahoma. I agree with everything you just said. I love Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma as well. I was just going to stand on my draft evaluation.

I thought he was awesome. You nailed it with Emmanuel Sanders. Another guy who's a little undersized but plays bigger than his frame for sure. ball skills are incredible for for his build in fact he's got like he's got a little troy franklin in him actually he's a little bit more slow i like him more than troy franklin well i do too i'm just saying from the aisle standpoint like they are these guys are dogs that can run routes and i just think mims is a supercharged version of franklin a little more physical you know doesn't get knocked around off his route you know top of his break a little you know he doesn't do do that the

way that franklin does so i think mims steps in is probably their eventual wide receiver one this I don't know when it happens. Oh, you said wide receiver won. Yeah, I think you should be unquestioned. Love it. Here for it. That would validate my breakout call right now. So thank you very.

Yeah, let's do it. I wish I had more data on him too with the small sample last year. We just don't really have. Yeah, 17 catches of something like that as a rookie or maybe less. Yeah, it wasn't great. All right. My second receiver is Arizona Cardinals Michael Wilson, another senior ball favorite of mine. You know, I kind of was feeling really down.

about his rookie year. I know some of the separation data we have coming out isn't great. I've heard you talk about this. So I'm considering me very surprised that you're going down this angle right now. So I don't, I don't just, you know, tee up takes to have and then without actually being educated. So I went back and watched some tape last night. I'm laying in bed late. Wanted to make sure

I knew what I was talking about for the show. Going through players, got to Michael Wilson, watched four or five games. And I just came away, just blown away at the route running. The attention to detail for his age, like being a rookie, and then also his size and archetype as a player.

I was amazed. The body control is excellent. I think back to the Senior Bowl practices we got to see. The work ethic is there. He seems like a great kid. And now you're getting him away from being the wide receiver one where you got Marvin Harrison, Jr. to take away most of the coverage.

Wilson's going to be matched up against, you know, a team's likely number two CB or worse. He's got a real opportunity to be good. A lot of vacated targets. there as well with Hollywood Brown taken off. I feel really good about this. I already mentioned the first down to touchdown ratio being important to me for predicting more targets.

67% of his catches last year, first downs or touchdowns. He was middle of the pack and first downs for route run, which is another sticky metric. These both point in positive directions for me. I think as he gets used to the NFL NFL speed, he will start to separate at a higher level. But the ball skills and ability to win at the catch point are there for sure. And I think he could be a really nice number two to Marvin Harrison, number one. I'm surprised you went this angle. It certainly has me perk up a little bit about his prospects this year.

And I mean, they need him, right? They're going to need him to really be a stabilizing player for this offense. And we know they're going to run the ball well in Arizona. But to me, the ceiling of that offense is going to be how good's Marvin Harrison, Jr. as a rookie. And then, of course, Michael Wilson and what type of year two jump he can make. And I think that would be monumental. I'd love to see it.

I know that he has some fans out there. And I'm glad that you went back to the tape there because that informs me a little bit better based on some of our previous conversations about Michael Wilson. Yeah. So I love data, obviously, you know, considering what I do for a living. But data without context is sort of meaningless in a lot of ways. And so I didn't feel good just like citing a bunch of negative stats and having that in my head. So that's why I wanted to go back to the tape. And I think there's some context to be applied there with that offense and the way it was ran.

And what he was being asked to do is. well. I think I think the best is yet to come for him. And we originally went into this with only choosing one receiver. And you're like this morning, you're like, let's do two. Yeah. You must have wanted to get that Michael Wilson nuggets in there. That's what it was. I had Shakir locked and loaded and was like, you know what?

I also want to do Michael Wilson. So let's ride. Tight ends. I want to get into your tight end. And I know who it is already. I'm really excited about this conversation. Before we do, though, we do have to take another break. All right.

Joe, your final player here, tight end. I'm sure you're excited about this. So why don't you just let it loose? Dalton Kincaid, Bills. You talked about the opportunity of vacated targets in Buffalo. Dalton Gade's going to get a lot of these as a second year player or first round pick. And he had a really good rookie season. So maybe this is a little bit falling into your Jordan Love thing and where I kind of

pick the player that's already broken out, all right? But I think that like the jump. He could come close to doubling his yards. So last year as a rookie, 73 catches on 91 targets, 6773 yards, two touchdowns, and he catches 104 yards and touchdown in two playoff games. To give you an idea of that production as a rookie, that's the fourth most receptions ever by a rookie tight end in the history of the NFL. That's the 10th most receiving yards ever for a tight end in the history of the NFL.

And I know that his success as a rookie is overshadowed by the better year that Sam Leporta had in Detroit. And I think the usage and opportunity was really different for Sam Leport. I think I'm not taking any way from Sam Leporta. He's awesome. He's a really good player. So is Dolan Kinkakee. Week 7 on. Don Quakeet led the bills in receiving yards.

And you saw the way that he was used really change from early in the season, kind of a dump and run guy, put him in space, asked him to create it for the catch. He's good after the catch. But then as the season moved along, saw more of the downfield opportunity show up and him make some plays. And you listen to Dalton Kincaid talk about his offseason. And he highlighted two things that really get me excited.

Number one, he's like, yeah, last off season I was working back from a back injury. So he didn't, you always talk about that first off season from your, your college season to your rookie year and how you're not really getting ready to play football. You're getting ready to do 40-yard dashes and jumps and interview and all that type of stuff. So not only is he not dealing with that, but he's solely focused on being a tight end for the Buffalo Bills. But then also he talked about his primary focus has been being in the weight room so that he could beat man coverage better. And I thought if there was a big growth area that was necessary for Dalton Kincaid, it was that, I think there were times where he maybe got stuck on the line a little bit and some of that contact at the second level when getting into those deeper routes.

You know, he didn't necessarily have the technique and physicality to break through a lot of that. I think that's a great thing for him to be working on this offseason. And if that shows up, I think he'll be even more productive. And so, yeah, I think he was really good as a rookie. But I think this is the type of guy that could push for 120 targets in year two. And if that's the case based on the efficiency that we've already seen from him and the skill set, he's going to have big time, big time numbers for an NFL tight net. Yes.

And that's why I threw the flag. This dude has already broken out. Oh, is that what you were doing? He was on the flag at me. Throw on the flag. This is your Jordan Love. He's already there. He's already broken out. When you put up historical numbers, it's safe to say you've already broken out. However, I still love the call. 238 vacated targets. What he did last year as a rookie without really a full off season. And now the top two pass catchers on the team are gone. He's going to, I mean, he's going to blow the thing open. It's insane. I'm so glad you mentioned the transformation from, you know, dump and run, tight end. you know kind of like that Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson variety to now the downfield work. He finished the season with a 7.2A dot from week 7 through 18. I know you mentioned week 7 being the turning point.

That's the same turning point I used when I went through his data. 7.2.8 that was fifth among tight ends. That's a big boy number. Yeah. That's nothing to shake your head out. That is very few tight ends get over seven in general. And he was at 72 as a rookie. other metrics from that week 7 through 18 time period,

eighth in target percentage for tight ends, 18.9%. Eight in targets per route run, 0.24. Eighth in yards per route run, 185. 10th in yards per target over expectation. He did that while running about 60% of his routes from the slot. So he's a weapon. I mean, these are really insane efficiency metrics for a rookie tight end.

I mean, he went toe to toe with Sam LaPorte of the last half. of the season as far as all of that goes. So you're 100% right. Sam Leporta was great. Dalton Kincade is also freaking great. Love this call. He might surpass Leporta in production this year just because of the opportunity he's going to have where with the Lions, they're a run first team.

They still have Ammon Ra. Jamo's about to break out. He's another one I thought about doing by the way. But man, Kincade is, sky's the limit for this kid, man. He's awesome. Thank you.

I mean, it's been awesome having this episode of lockdown bills to discuss the gospel of Coloshecure and Dalton Kincaid while everyone's concerned about losing Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis. To me, anytime you're trying to predict breakout players, though, it's like, okay, well, who are some of the good offenses? What do they need? Right.

Still's great offense that lost a ton of targets. It's just simple math for me, Cleo Secure, Dalton Kincaid coming through. So my last player, we don't got to spend a lot of time on them because we have no data. Oh, wow. Similar to the Marvin Mims. I should say limited data. And that's Green Bay, tight end, Luke Musgrave. I wanted to get a piece of this offense.

I partner him with Jordan Love as my breakout candidates. Luke Musgrave, when he played last year, was freaking awesome. Yards throughout run were up there. Just the eye test too, go watch it. I know there was a point in the season around Thanksgiving where people were like, oh, Tucker Kraft is taking that tight end one job when Musgrave was sitting on the sideline with a concussion. Well, as soon as the second Luke Musgrave came back,

that was out the window. Tucker Craft was relegated back to the bench. Luke Musgrave took over as their tight end one. again, and he just looks awesome. Now, I know health has been a major concern. Going back to freshman year of college, right? But if this dude can stay healthy with the way Jordan Love is playing right now, I think he's going to be absolutely awesome.

One of the freakiest athletes at tight end you will ever see, you know, 22.5 miles an hour on the GPS last year as a tight end is freaking ridiculous. Love it. Any other notes here? Not real. I wanted to get one of these Green Bay guys. One of the receivers. I thought about Watson, but he had that rookie.

year that was pretty good thought about jaden reid but ultimately luke musgrave was my pick here i'm a dynasty owner of luke musgrave so i enjoyed listening to you discussed that but i'm also a dynasty owner of tucker craft and it's very annoying to have to roster both of them you know what i mean so i'd love for for luke musgrave to be healthy and for me to not have to deal with rostering two tight ends from the same team but that mix that mixing green bay man it's real it's gonna be fun a lot of young guns out there man they're loaded with young pass catchers. It's crazy. All right, Brett Whitefield. Let's talk about the NFC East. And we'll start with the Dallas Cowboys who won this division last year. They're coming off three

consecutive 12 and five seasons, but they keep kind of getting bouncing the playoffs. What's you're out like when you think Dallas 24, what's that prevailing thought for you in your mind? First thing I asked myself, did they get better? The answer to me is no. I think they got worse. When you look at their major offseason moves, Joe, they drafted Tyler Geyton and they drafted the Cooper Bibi to replace Tyrone Smith and Tyler Biotish. Tyrone Smith health issues the last few years were a thing. Tyler Biotish, not a bad player. And I don't think it's reasonable to expect Tyler Guyton and Cooper Bibi to be as good as those two guys as rookies.

So while I did like that draft, I did like both of those players coming out, I think it is completely ludicrous to suggest that they will give you the same amount of production that those two other guys gave you. So I think there's going to be some O-line growing pains here. Another note, Tony Pollard left. They don't really have a running back. Sounds like Cavante Turpin might be converting to running back. I mean, when we're talking about that.

Zique, baby, Zique. Yeah, okay. Zeke behind a, Zique is, I'll get what's blocked for me running back all day long. Great vision. But I don't know what's going to be blocked for him, though. So good luck there. And then no CD Lamb contract.

And that's going to screw them in the long run because Justin Jefferson just broke the bank. CD is probably going to get more. Not a good offseason in my opinion, Joe. Very competitive division as well. Yeah, I agree. I don't even think the most optimistic Dallas fans will sit here and tell you this is a better roster right now than it was last year. And when you talk about the offensive line, you mentioned transitions at left tackle and center. But also, we need to see Terrence Steele play better. I mean, that guy was a disaster this past year at right tackle. I know these had good seasons prior and he'll be further removed from injury, so you're hopeful there. But that guy's got to elevate his game as well. I mean, you have three big questions. If your offensive line of the three most important spots, center and they both. tackle spots. To me, my biggest thing with Dallas outside of the offensive line, which is definitely where if I asked myself that same question, I would have started there. To me, whenever I see Dallas, and again, this is a team that's one, I'm not good at math, but they're

what, they're 36 and 15 over the last three seasons. I feel like every time I see Dallas not playing good football, partly it's usually on the road. Of course, that was a big narrative last year. But they just get, they get big boyed, man. They get out physicaled with their defense. and I know that Dan Quinn likes to lean into the up-the-field, high, you know, kind of a risk-reward unit where they get negative plays, but they don't have a lot of size, right? They're kind of a slashing style of defense. Mike Zimmer now takes over this defense.

I don't know if that's going to make a major impact, but like what's the path here for this team to be more stout with its front seven? They have good players. Like, DeMarcus Lawrence, good player. Osa Diggi-Zua really emerging as a nice young player. Michael Parsons, unbelievable. but you need Mazi Smith who they, dude, I guess they asked them to take to drop a bunch of weight. What it was?

He's got to be a thing for this team to become more stouter else teams like Detroit, teams like Green Bay, teams like San Francisco, the other great teams in this conference are going to shove it down your throat. And you're not going to be able to win in the postseason. The Mazi Smith thing makes no sense, dude. They draft the 330 pound defensive tackle. Now I get, you get into camp, he's never been in the NFL weight room. Cool. We want to tighten that frame up a little bit.

We want to see a little more muscle mass, maybe, maybe, you know, a better body fat percentage. But they had him drop like 30 pounds. Mati Smith hasn't played at 300 pounds since he was in high school. Yeah. What are we doing? I mean, and he was a freak athlete at 330 pounds. But the second you, like, he's not used to winning at 300 pounds. I didn't get it.

It was, it was weird. It felt like he would have been the perfect compliment to Osa Odigizua, the former wrestler from UCLA, who I love. you know, some of the things he can do for an undersized detackle. But when they've slimmed Mazzie down, it was like they were trying to get two of the same player, it felt like. And you mentioned that slashing style. Well, did not work in year one with Mazzie. They got to figure that out quickly because these teams can run the ball in the NFC now.

And they're getting taken advantage of pretty much all over the place. Trayvon Diggs return, Doron Bland. I think he's a guy that had made a ton of big plays, but also got roasted quite a bit in coverage. Yep. I think he'll need to find some more, need to find some more consistency there. but obviously, Dak and all the dynamics surrounding his contract and you'd say, okay, well, we have questions about three offensive line spots.

Our number one elite receiver, C.D. Lamb, we got to get that contract taken care of. We've downgraded that running back. Okay, what's what is Brandon Cook's at this point? Jake Ferguson's like a serviceable answer. They're needing, they need John Tober to kind of step up here in this mix as well. I think they're going to be a good football team relative to the division that they play in, but I don't think they're ready to be one of the one of the big boys in the NFC. And even if they win a bunch of games in a regular season, I need to see a fundamentally

different team for me to buy into them going on a real run here. I agree with you. They'll beat up on average or worse teams and then they'll get blown out by the best teams in the league. Philadelphia Eagles, Brett Whitefield. This team, my God, the collapse last year was something to behold. And now you've got some transition on the roster with some staples and Jason Kelsey and Fletcher Cox, no longer being. part of this mix. But a talented football team, the biggest thing here is probably the turnover when it comes to coordinators who, I mean, those guys got completely cooked last year, man, Brian Johnson and wasn't like Matt Patricia took over the defensive. Like it was a disaster. So you're hopeful

that Ellen Moore in Vic Fangio, very established coordinators in the NFL can help, but certainly a little bit of a roster in transition, coaching in transition at a team that needs to bounce in a big way after they collapsed down the stretch. One thing that's interesting about the coordinator conversation is, is Brian Johnson basically eliminated the checkdown or the hot for Jalen Hertz. And so all the answers for hot in that offense last year was Jalen Hertz. He was the answer. Hey, if you're hot, you got to get loose with your feet.

And he got banged up because of it. Literally no checkdowns and no hots. It was the weirdest offense I probably ever watched. And then you bring in Kellan Moore, who's the literal opposite. I mean, he coaches checkdowns pretty extensively. We saw it with Dak when he was in Dallas. We saw it with Justin Herbert last year.

I mean, these guys, you know, near the top of the league in checkdown rate under Kellyn Moore. So I do think that they purposely went probably polar opposite of what they were getting out of Brian Johnson there. Now you wish you could just have Shane Steichen back, right? But not an option. So they go with Kellyn Moore. One thing I do like about Kellyn Moore is he will go out of his way to maximize his

personnel. So he's not one of these guys that's like set in stone. I think of like Shane Waldron who like wants to hammer 12 personnel. You know, he's not one of those guys. If he's got three good receivers, he's going to run 11 personnel. If he's got two tight ends that are feeling it, they'll run 12 personnel that week. If the defense sucks at guarding 10 personnel, they'll play that. Like he he does whatever he came to make it easy on his QB and take advantage of matchups. So I do like that for for Callan and Jalen Hurts moving forward. Hertz had a bad year last year, Joe, like really, like, especially coming off the 2022 season where he was an MVP candidate, really felt like he took a step backwards last year. Some of that wasn't his fault, but he also

seemed to lose his mind towards the end of the year there. So, yeah, I would too if I didn't have checkdown and at any sense of pressure. I'm just told to figure it out. Yep. There's no answers. There's no answers baked in, man. Like, yeah, it was, it was tough for him to see like any threat of pressure. The guy couldn't function. And it's like, well, why is that? I think you know why. How excited are you for Sequin Barclay? coming over here. I know that we've got Cam Juergens switching over from right guard to center. You're introducing Tyler Steen in at right guard. But, you know, I think even you heard Nick Siriani say he, he likes to jaw with the Giants fans a little bit and say, yeah, man, we just

got your best player. Are you excited here? What's your, what's your, what's your outlook for Sequin? You know, I'm firmly in the running backs don't matter crowd, Joe, and I don't, so I don't want to like rain on a parade here. I will say, we have never seen Seekwan Barley, behind an even competent offensive line, let alone one that's got four good starters. I mean, and we don't know what Tyler Steen is quite yet. I'm imagining, I'm forgetting their O-line coach's name. What's his name?

I'm going to blank. I forget it all the time too. Oh, God, we owe this guy. Stoutland. Yeah, Stoutland. Coach Stoutland. Jeff Stoutland. So behind,

you know, Stoutland's probably the best O-Line coach in the league. I would imagine Steen didn't earn a starting job there unless they really felt like he was the man for the job. So I'm excited. to see Barclay behind a good old line. And then with Kellan Moore bringing the checkdown back, Barkley did his freaking stud, like in fantasy. He already kind of has been, despite the bad circumstances. So best circumstances Barclay's ever had. Yeah, I think, I think the Eagles continue to be right when it comes to the offensive line decisions that they make. And so while

it's an unanswered question, you can kind of feel good about it. Yeah. Defensively, we've, we've added a lot to the secondary, which they needed to, bringing in quick. Quigionan Mitchell, bringing in C.J. Gardner Johnson, bringing in Isaiah Rogers, bringing in Cooper de Jean. We added some stuff here, and we needed to. Fun fact, Quineon Mitchell was my number 10 player in the draft. Cooper to Jean was my number 11 player in the draft. So talk about, I mean, I couldn't be more excited for Philly in those additions. Still plenty of questions at linebackers. They don't care about linebackers. But I think Devin White is a disaster fit in Vic Fangio's defense. I don't know what, Devin White is a gap shooter. I, I don't. don't, he doesn't play the run well, he doesn't play in coverage. He blitzes and shoots gaps. So like if that excites you, then go right ahead. He's like a Brian Flores, Ivan Pace, a Landon Roberts type player. Like that's who I think

Devin White is. And now you're hoping that Nicole Dean could be a thing for you. So I have plenty of questions about the linebackers, like what we've done to reinforce the secondary. But I think obviously the front here is where it's going to be really important where Jalen Carter builds upon a great rookie season. I think you need Jordan Davis to be a dude because I don't think your defensive tackle depth is quite what it, what has been in the past. obviously Bryce Huff coming in to play opposite of Joshua.

You still have good depth there. Nolan Smith, I think it could be a big time breakout camp to think about Nolan Smith and the Andrew Van Ginkle role that you saw for Fangio in Miami last year. I think that could be a souped up version there. So there's a lot to like about this defense. I think it's about Jordan Davis and the linebackers kind of elevating themselves. Two quick thoughts here. They still can't really stop the run, I don't think.

Although they have Jordan, I mean, Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter on paper should be able to stop the run. They just haven't been able to do it, really. So that's a little concerning. The coverage thing too, I mean, they're on the lines track where they needed to just completely overhaul the secondary. But when you're starting potentially two rookies, it could still,

similar to the Dallas O'Line situation, that could still be yucky. That could be ugly. I know rookie corners of recently have played a lot better than in years past. So maybe things have changed a little bit there. I will say the Bryce Huff acquisition is probably one of my favorite Howie Rosemanisms he's ever done.

He had a very similar player in Hassan Reddick, and he trades them to the Jets, you know, recoup's draft capital. Hassan Reddick wants a new contract. And then he pays Bryce Huff probably less money than Reddick is going to get on his next deal. And Bryce Huff is probably a better player right now than Hassan Reddick. That's crazy, Brett. That's crazy. Hassan Reddick's a better player.

Has a peer pass rusher, though? Oh, man. In the Vic Fangio defense? I don't know, dude. I'm not trying to cash it on Bryce Huff. I think he's very good. I think Reddick's in a tier above him. Do you?

Okay. Still, Redick has- I still like the move. I liked everything you said about the move, but you kind of lost me at that point. I just think the, Roseman always finds these little margins to get value out of it. He squeezed that margin and got, I felt like he got value.

Similar, let's just call it similar player then. Similar player and he recouped draft capital. You're going to pay him less and get a three back. Yeah. It's a good trade. Some money. Yeah, exactly. So that's just wanted to say that.

I think, I think Roseman is just a mastermind that continuing to keep that roster in pretty good shape. I think you make a good point about potentially having a couple of young players in the secondary with prominent roles in Cooper DeGine and Quignan Mitchell. If there's anything I could say about that is Quingian Mitchell playing, it's his own match defense, right, with Vic. Quina and Mitchell off coverage in Toledo, like it was totally what he did.

And then even Cooper DeGine, Iowa, like very much what he did. So I think there's a lot of good translatibility. And I think you have hedges. And I know that James Bradbury was not good, but at least you still have them. you do have Avanti Maddox. You do have CJ Gardner Johnson. You do have Reed Blanketships. So there are some hedges here in case, you know, those guys aren't ready to go.

But I'm sure they want to get those guys on the field and see what they can do. The New York Giants finished third in this division, Brett. And this feels like a do-or-die season for Brian Dayball, for Joe Shane as a general manager, for Daniel Jones as a starting quarterback for this football team. And obviously they caught lightning in a bottle their first season, one nine games, won a playoff game, and I think that they really overachieved. I think so much of their script was not sustainable, and I think they made a big time mistake. And I want to parallel them to the Minnesota Vikings that year.

Vikings also caught lightning in a bottle, and you feel like they overachieve. But the Minnesota Vikings were honest about what they were. And then they stayed with their vision and their plan. They transitioned away from older players and have reset, and you're kind of excited about the outlook of Minnesota. for the Giants, they did something that you see teams do all the time, and it's a big mistake. You realize that you overachieve and you're not honest about it. And you say, you know what, if we can just keep as much this as we can in place, add a few things here.

You know, we can build on this nine win season. No, because you already had too many problems. They weren't honest about it. And now they find themselves in year three. And I'll be honest with you, I'm kind of embarrassed for what this roster looks like with three full off seasons for Joe Shane to build it and a lot of draft capital. you know, to work with, to build. I know that's a very high level conversation.

We'll get into a little bit more of the details, but do or die season for the Giants and I'm not loving how this roster lays out. I mean, I agree to a certain extent for sure. It definitely seems like they probably have more faith in some of their guys than they should, right? Like not addressing offensive tackle at all this offseason was weird. Evan Neal was Astner two years in a row. Right.

And I know Evan Neal is a high pedigree. player with the draft capital of invested, but you still need to eventually hedge on that. I don't think Matt Nelson coming over from Detroit is going to get a note. He's not a good player. I did like the John running acquisition from the Packers. I think he's a very solid right guard, probably a big improvement over what they were working with. They also brought in Aaron Stinney, who not great, but again, probably better than the depth that they previously had. But to your point, though, it's like they're just completely blatantly ignoring certain positions, it seems like, year over year. And I'm not really sure why that is.

is if I could say one nice thing about them, they have a really good defensive line or potential they have a really good defensive line. Like excellent defensive line. Dexter Lawrence, Jordan Phillips, Brian Burns, Kvon Tibido with Aziz Ojolare and Rakeem Nunes Roaches is the primary backups there.

I feel like that's a pretty good situation. But other than that, they have issues all the way around. Yeah, I like the Deline. It's a good call out. Dexter Lawrence, one of the elite defensive tackles in the game. Brian Burns to be able to get him for,

second round pick. That's a great move. I like KT and where he's headed. So I think that's the strength of the team plus Andrew Thomas at left tackle. I do think Germain and Lumineer was a nice upgrade at left guard, but we need to see more from John Michael Schmitz in year two at center. Evan Neal has been a complete disaster. And then like you need, you need Malik neighbors to come in to be the truth as a rookie. Yep. And dude, what is this corner situation? What is this? I mean, you're the corner guy. You tell me, what are we doing? I mean, Cordell Flot was, he's been probably the worst corner in the league two years in a row. Third round pick. If you watch the tape at LSU, you'd have known.

Yep. They're still running the back with him as a starter. And not only is he the starter, Joe, they have no one behind him. Nick McLeod? He's a special teams player, right? Like, what am I? He got a chance to play a bit down the stretch last year. And like, he's a UDFA that I think has had a little bit of opportunity. But he might be their second best corner. And you're hoping that Deonté Banks can be better. than he was as a rookie. Yeah. I like Tyler Nubin at safety, but he's a rookie. Jason Pinoc, kind of lightning in the bottle last season,

looks like he might be a starter, but like Drew Phillips, rookie starter in the slot, like, man. Another team starting two rookies probably in the secondary as well. I feel real different about it. When did McLeod come in the league last year? No, he was, he was, he was, Bill's got him out of, uh, he went NC State to Notre Dame, and the bills had him for a couple seasons and he went to like maybe the Bengals.

He's been in the league for three or four years. but it's time for him. These are types of players are talking about relying on. I have too many O-line questions, too many receiver questions, too many corner questions, secondary in general. I have quarterback questions. Oh, big time. I think this seems prime to finish last in the NFCs.

Woo. All right. I like it. Someone's got to finish last. It's them or Washington. Yeah. We'll get to Washington. I don't know if they're good enough to definitively say they'll finish ahead of the

Giants. But the Giants have the chance to be really, really bad, though. So I probably end up agreeing with you. I'm just, you know. Questions, questions, questions. All right, let's take command with the Washington commanders. Year one, Adam Peters, year one for Dan Quinn, year one for Jaden Daniels. And if there's a roster, I don't have the date on this.

If there's a roster that looks more different year over year than Washington, like you tell me who it is because this roster has been flipped. upside down. They had a lot of cap space. I think the most cap space this off season, obviously some draft capital as well, a good amount of draft capital with some of the guys they traded away. A ton of new players on this team. And I think that's probably where you start the conversation. Is this everything's new? And that makes it hard to set expectations because we have new schemes, new players. And that's great. I think that's where Washington needs to be after not only the Daniel Snyder run, but also what last year was for them and coming out of the Ron

Rivera stuff. I think it's it's a good thing for it to be a new day in Washington. Year 1 expectations can be tough to figure out though. Just going back to your last statement about the Giants of finishing dead last. I'm just looking at the Washington depth chart right now. I have enough

O line and D line questions. I just can't help but feel like this thing sucks. And I know it's year one. So the expectations are relatively low, right? You just want to versus year three. Yeah, exactly. To that point, you're 100% spot on with the Giants However, I'm just like, are we really starting Cordelius Lucas still in the NFL?

Is that still a thing? I'm sure they love for Brandon Coleman or Braden Daniels to be their left tackle. But yeah, that's where they're headed right now. Allegretti and Biotis were like band-aids they threw on the offensive line this offseason. They gave Biotas 10 per. They paid Allegretti eight per. They paid these guys like the legit starters. Crazy.

Yeah. Andrew Wiley. Again, not like a, he's not awful, right? But he's not a needle mover. They don't have a single needle. move around the offensive line. I say Cosmy at right guard. I think he's a needle mover? Yeah, I think he's an above average starter. I'll give you above average starter. Yeah, yeah. I mean, maybe that stops short of needle mover, but I think, I think he's an above average

start. Can we get Brandon Coleman starting some games at left tackle just to see? Like, I don't want, Cornelius Lucas has just been a below average player for a decade, and I don't know how he's still in the league. It's kind of crazy. Big, big with long arms, man. You'll stick around for a while. True. Zach Ertz. You know, I like Ben Sin. I like Luke McCaffrey, but they bring in Zach Ertz when they already kind of had John Bates, who they've developed. It seemed like he was ready to break out. Cole Turner.

I don't know. They just, the all season seems disjointed, but that's what happens the first year of a regime. They just kind of clean house and start bringing in new guys, right? It's usually what happens. It's a Texans feel, right, to an extent with how they've kind of been over the last few years where it's just like tons of additions, not really sure how it all works together,

but we're getting bodies. I think that's a lot of what happened. Obviously, the linebackers is a big transition point for this team with Frankie Louvo and Bobby Wagner as their starting pair. I think this team is going to need to find some edge rush. I think Dorrance Armstrong expanded role for him, obviously familiarity with Quinn, but like Clill and Farrell as the other guy, they're talking about getting Jamon Davis some edge rusher reps, which is totally on brand for Dan Quinn with Michael Parsons and Vic Peasley in his past. We'll see, I mean, Jamie Davis has got long arms and he's really explosive. you know, maybe you can create some mismatches there.

That's at least interesting to me. Their corner situation is going to be real weird too, where this team, it feels like they're already flushing the 20, 23 draft down the toilet with Juan Martin and Emmanuel Forbes. Like, those guys aren't going to factor in on this defense. I think Benjamin St. Jude is kind of going back outside. I've always thought he was a weird fit in the nickel.

Michael Davis, Jeremy Chin, Derek Forrest. Like, to me, that's a piece of this has to come together. I like Mike Sandra still. dog, right? He's a good football player. I think he'll have an immediate impact in the slot, but I think their back seven has to come together. It's all new. They need some edge rush. Obviously, the strength you feel like is Allen and Payne at defensive tackle. And Newton, they might have the best if he can go. Yeah, right, he's got some injury stuff. But yeah, Newton, I love him. So that plus introducing a rookie quarterback with questions on the

offensive line. And we're hopeful that these these weapons, you know, Terry McCorrence kind of proven to be quarterback proof in terms of production. But yeah, they need Dotson to break out like I said he would. I mean, are you excited about Austin Echler? I mean, that guy couldn't run last year. No, he looked, he looked physically broken. He's returning kicks in camp right now, too. I mean, I'm just looking at it.

Like, this defense might give up so much yardage and points that Dotson's going to have to be a superstar. Someone's got to catch them all. They're going to be playing from behind every game. Like, this is crazy. I don't like this roster. Other than the D tackles, those tackles, you can sell me on that all day. Theron Payne, John Allen, Johnny Newton. It sounds like Newton's going to be fine for camp, by the way.

I hope so. I hope so. So are you, are you, who finishes last? I said the Johns. I'm picking the commanders, man. All right. Also, Daniel Jones is bad, but at least he's not a rookie QB. Like, I think you're still have growing pains with rookie QBs unless they're C.J. Stroud, which, which, you know, I don't think Jane Daniels is that.

So I don't know what's, man, I'm, I feel like I'm sitting on a fence right now. Like, how much does Jane Daniels running ability elevate the floor of the offense? He's going to have to run a lot. Especially because we know how type of player he is. He likes to, he runs to run. He doesn't run to throw. True. How does he fit with Cliff Kingsbury?

They have the weirdest collection of wide receivers, by the way. So the starters, you got McLaren, Dotson and McCaffrey, but then the backup guys, Dianney Brown, Olomede, Zakias, Demir Byrd, Jameson Crowder. James and Crowder's still kicking around. Second stint with the commanders here. This is crazy. Yeah.

All those guys are like slot receivers wild. I think it winds up being McCorrin, Dotson, and Zakias. You don't think McCaffrey starts? I know he was a high pick, but he's still so new to the position. The leap he made from 22 to 23, though, is insane. I feel pretty good about him. Maybe that's a little bit more about my affinity for Lama Zakias from watching him at Virginia and just enjoying him so much.

Yeah. Oh, gosh, man. This roster is a dumpster fire. Tell us how you really feel. Yeah, aren't they paying Michael Dieter a little bit of money, too? Yeah, versatile backup, right? Can play all three spots on the interior. I know he's not been a high level performer,

but maybe he had his best season last year for Houston. To your point on them punting the 23 class, like they drafted Ricky Stromberg last year. Their top three picks are going to be nothing for them. Right. And they just bring in Beaudish and just, I mean, less Stromberg can kick to the left guard,

but they're paying Allegretti. So they're just punting on that class. That class is done. Yeah. They're moving on. Absolutely, absolute waste of a class. Wow. Crazy.

Well, that's it, Joe. That's the NFC East. So who do you think wins? The Eagles? Yeah, I think Philly, Dallas, and then flip a coin. You're going Washington Giants, though. I'm going Giants, Washington. Man, you may have talked to me into Washington.

What is their combined wins? Do they combine for 10 wins? No, I'll say nine. I'll take the under. Probably so. Yeah. All right, that's going to do it. Remember, folks, no matter what develops,

we will always be your first read. Thanks for listening. We are out.