Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Division Winners + Playoff Teams

Episode Date: August 29, 2024

Welcome to First Read, your go-to podcast for the latest in NFL analysis and insights. Join hosts Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino as they predict division winners and playoff teams for the 2024 season. Whether you're a fantasy football enthusiast, a die-hard fan, or just looking to stay informed on all things NFL, "First Read" has you covered. Tune in for expert opinions, detailed breakdowns, and engaging discussions every week. Don't miss out on the ultimate NFL podcast experience! Where to find us: http://twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Age Curves Article By Ryan Heath - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out#/ Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First read, we are your first read, the film analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of lockdown and myself, Brett Whitefield, the C-O-O of Fantasy Points. This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Let's get after it. Joe, my friend, I want to welcome to the show, but before I do, I have to take care of some business here, okay? I need all of the listeners right now to go check this out on YouTube, subscribe to the Fantasy Points YouTube page.

Turn notifications on. We need your support on YouTube. The podcast is better on YouTube. You get to see Joe and I's silly facial expressions and some, the banter is just more interesting when you see the video element of the show. Please do that. Also, Spotify, Apple Podcasts. We need your reviews.

This is a new podcast. I think we're actually like 15 episodes deep. I misspoke and said 10 last time. We're like 15 deep. But anyways, new feed, NFL first read. go find us, write us a review, a five-star review that just helps boost us and get us more listeners, which is what we want. We're trying to take over the world here. And then lastly, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, I know it is still right in the thick of Fantasy Draft Season.

The Data Suite has all the cool advanced analytics that you need to knock out your draft. Please go to data.com. If you're interested, I think, you know, we have some promos going on right now. But sign up, get yourself a Data Suite package. the advanced data we talk about on this podcast is from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Okay, Joe, now that I've taken care of that, let's get you in here. How are you, sir? I'm good. I've noticed a new prop in your background. There's a guitar. It's been here for the last couple episodes. And I'm wondering, are you planning on playing us a song? Like, what's happening here? No. No, just, you know, knocked off the cobwebs recently, started playing again for the listeners.

I don't know my background. Music was a big part of my life, you know, a dead. decade ago or so and, uh, yeah, it's been pretty rusty here and there. So recently, uh, recently knocked the cobwebs off. I play for my family and that's about it. Oh, well, what do we need to do to get a Brett Whitefield song on the podcast? Is there maybe something chargers related that, uh, if they reach a certain miles still and weekend. Wow. Uh, no, I think, I think I, I think I'm probably just retired from playing. Oh, wow. That aren't my wife and kids. Um, well, that's, well, we'll see. We'll see. I'll see if I, my goal, my new goal on this podcast is a you to play the guitar and sing a song for us at some point. I'll keep trying. It'll be a thing.

Maybe it will have to go back in hiding then if you're going to constantly put pressure on me, you know? Oh, no, you can handle it. I know, I know Brett Whitefield can handle some pressure. That's, and that's what you do, man. Like, that's, that's, I'm unbelievably impressed with your process and how you're able to chart all the things that you chart when watching football games in a short amount of time. So I know you can handle pressure. I know you can handle. Well, thank you, sir. Yeah, I mean, um, I've been doing this for a lot of long time now. So every year it seems like we just add a little bit more to Brett's plate, but it's all right. We're good. One more thing. One more thing. Maybe eventually I'll have,

we do have a very large team now at Fantasy Points data actually. And it's possible we have some of those guys pop in as guests here and there throughout the season. But that said, the team is growing, which means at some point either some of the load gets taken off my plate or we just use that as an excuse to add new things, right? Yeah. Well, not that you have more time. You can do this. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I know how this goes. No good deed ever goes unpunished. That's one thing I've learned in life. This is true.

All right, Joe, we have a huge show today because we're in the thick of it. Week one is here. And, you know, we're, we wanted to bring a full season preview. So we're going to go through division by division. And we're going to tell you the division winners. We're going to cede the playoffs, maybe even get into how we think the playoffs unfold. And then we're going to hit you the back half of the show with our award winners. We're going to pick award winners.

We're not doing Vegas odds. We're actually picking who we think will win the awards. So here we go. Let's get it started, Joe. All right. What division? Let's start in the NFC. I feel like everything always starts in the AFC.

I listed this out, NFC first. So you read my ones. Let's do this. If I go to the show sheet, would I see that? Or do some sign of a secret document that you have for your stuff? Because I didn't want to do the pod before the pod. Oh, okay. All right.

Fair enough. All right. So your secret document that I can't see says we're going to start in the NFC. So let's start with the NFC West, exactly where. everybody always starts, the NFC West. Okay, so you want to share your order? What's what you want to do here?

Sure. We can go, we can do that. Are we then sharing the seed for the playoffs? Are we going to get to that after we unveil all of the division winners? Yeah, let's do, let's do the division and then let's come back and give our playoff seating. Okay. I have the San Francisco 49ers winning the division. Bold. Hot take.

Right. Really starting us off with a real bang here. Right. It's kind of what I was saying pre-show is some of these divisions, there's not a lot of mystery here, but we'll get to the ones that do have mystery, of course. 49ers win in the division. I have the Rams finishing second, followed by the Seahawks. And then lastly, finishing last, the Arizona Cardinals.

Pro Whitefield, I have the exact same order, the exact same order. Is there a path, like injuries, let's go ahead and establish. We're not going to consider any injuries. Okay, we don't know what injuries are going to happen. But like, is there a path outside of the, of an injury for one of these teams dethroning San Francisco in this division. Rams are too young on defense. Everything's new in Seattle and the Cardinals don't have the talent.

Thanks, Steve Kine. Yeah, I think the Cardinals will have enough offensive firepower to play like spoiler, like in a game. You know, like, I can see them pop, like, you know, there's a chance they pop the 49ers in Arizona this year. I don't know. I think they have that kind of potential, but I don't see anybody dethroning them as the division champ this year. I went through and I actually predicted every single game in the season to get to my conclusions. I have the 49ers winning this division comfortably by four in the last in the lost column. Really?

Yeah. That's okay. Wow. So they're wrapping it up like week 16, week 17. Yeah. Yeah. I can see it. It's a, that's a loaded team.

A lot returning. I know there's some turnover on defense. I'm a little bit of, a little bit concerned about the defensive one. but I think their ability offensively to put strain on opponents, the physical brand of football that they play, battle tested team, they know what's at stake. They got to feel like this is a great opportunity coming up against,

like, a lot of expiring contracts. I think there's so much urgency for the 49ers. I think they meet these expectations this year. One other thing, too, they don't play the heavy hitters of the, am I mistaken? I don't play the heavy hitters in the NFC this year. They don't play the lions. I don't think they play the Packers.

No, wait, they do play the lines. I do play the Lions. Right after Christmas, that's right. Right. Yeah, because I predicted the Lions to win that game. I think that's a big revenge game. Wow. During the regular season.

Yeah, I have the Lions winning that. The revenge game comes in January, but yeah. Well, that's the world I've lived in with the Chiefs. The Bills beat the Chiefs every year in the regular season. Every year, they meet them. It's like, okay, great, can we have the one in January? Right. I will give you the regular season game.

Just give me the pull-off one. Right. No, it's funny. You know, one note on the 49ers here. It's funny. D-Line being their weakness. I feel the same way. That's not a consensus opinion, though, Joe. There's a lot of people out there who think they have this, you know. Really? Yeah, well, for one, name, you know, name recognition, Bosa, Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave and, yeah, I think

people just- Bolle Collins and Leonard Floyd. I think they have two. They have two good starters in Bosa and Hargrave. And Hargrave's got to play better than he did last year. Okay, let's start there. And he can't defend the run is their big issue there. Right. So that's the problem. You know who also can't defend the run? Malik Collins. And your backup defensive tackles are Kevin Givens and Jordan Elliott. Also guys that can't stop the run. Yep. So what are we talking about here? I think they have great concerns on that defense of line. Yeah, I agree with the coordinator change.

I think they kind of agree with you too. Even at the trade done last year, people thought their D-line was good and they still went out and flipped a third round pick for Chase Young. Yeah. Which didn't amount to anything for them. I don't think it's that cut and dry I think their defensive lines is going to be a challenge for them and that's partly why I have the Lions

winning that game in the regular season. Sure. All right, we've got a bunch more divisions to get to folks. Be sure to stick with us. This Giving Tuesday, Cam H is counting on your support. Together we can forge a better path for mental health by creating a future

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all the little and big things you need to make this season shine. But don't wait. Like leftovers at midnight, our Black Friday offers won't last. Shop now at IKEA.ca.ca. Black Friday. IKEA, bring home to life. All right, Brett Whitefield, the NFC West behind us, plenty of divisions ahead of us.

Let's go to the NFC East. You gave your order first on the West. I'll give you my order first year on the East. I've got Philadelphia winning this division. I feel I feel pretty good about that. Dallas at number two, the Giants at three, and the commanders at four.

Okay, we're close. I want Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, recognizing that that last, you know, the fight for not finishing last might be a coin toss there. But yeah. I have that close. I want to give my case for the Giants. I'd like to hear your case for the commanders.

The reason I think the Giants are the team, that doesn't finish last. Well, first of all, they don't have a rookie quarterback or a first year coaching situation. I think that helps. Ooh. You're like, well, not if the coaching situation and the quarterback's not very good, right? That's what you're going to say. Exactly.

That's what you're going to say. I know that. But I have a little bit more comfort with some of what the giants have on their defense. Like Washington, everything is so new. Like probably the most overhauled starting lineup in the NFL. And it needed to be. But Washington's offensive line with the rookie quarterback, that's what concerns me. So that's my case for the Giants.

Okay. Yeah. I was. Yeah. All right. I love the Giants, but. Yes. No, no.

Like I said, I think this is probably a coin toss anyways. I would point at the Giants D line being a big reason they could, they could. Oh, yeah. That's probably the best thing about either of these two teams is the Giants evens of line. Yeah. Burns, Kvon, Dexter Lawrence, is the most underrated defensive player in the league, you know, by the average fan, at least.

He's an absolute monster. So I like those guys. For me, just came down to quarterback play. It's like, whatever I think about these rosters, I just, I'm going to trust a rookie Jaden Daniels more than I trust Daniel Jones. I'm there. I'm sorry. I've seen enough from Daniel Jones just to not,

not to feel good about that in any type of way. I think Daniels, with his rushing upside, his athletic ability is just going to give them high enough floor to not finish last in the division. O line concerns. He can obfuscate that quite a bit with his athleticism. Right, but it's a rookie in year one. It's not the kind of stress I want to put on a rookie quarterback. I don't disagree. It's not ideal,

but I think he can handle it. He's also, you know, a five-year starter in college. It's not like a tie you're thrown out there with 400 career drawbacks. We both had the Eagles over Dallas. Does this just come down to Dallas kind of with their issues and

being a team that objectively didn't get better this offseason? Yeah, Dallas just forgot there was an off season. Right. They just, oh, we don't have to, we don't have to use the same team as last year. Okay. Well, and the Eagles, their roster is still so freaking good. Even with Jason Kelsey retiring, just top to bottom, man.

They got, they got dudes pretty much everywhere. Linebackers a big concern, obviously. I know you got the Ross Tucker's of the world telling you that's not a concern anymore. I think it is. But that's really their only glaring weakness. They've improved their other weaknesses, even going and getting your guy, Jehan Dodson, you know, from washing. He's going to be their wide receiver three.

Now, we can make fun of that all day. But hey, that's a much better wide receiver three situation than they've had the last two, three years. It takes a little pressure off of A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. He can play inside out, gives them a lot of versatility on offense for their 11 personnel package. I like a lot of what they're doing, and they just have a really good team. We've heard really good things about Hertz, this camp, about the shift in attitude,

maybe him taking some accountability, owning some things from last year. I kind of, I just like the vibes all around that we're getting out. of Philly right now. And I think they have a good bounce back year this year. I think the coordinator shift in Philly is so significant. Swapping out Brian Johnson for Kellyn Moore on offense, swapping out Matt Patricia for Vic Fangio, right? Like I feel like that's just going to be such a more schematically sound situation on top of the talent that they have.

And for some of the guys that are no longer in the mix, I think they do have a lot of very talented young players. I mean, like I'm excited for a guy like Nolan Smith. the opportunity he's going to have this year. And Quinyan Mitchell and what he can be at corner for that team. And they've got some questions to kind of fill at center and left guard. And you seem like Mackay Beckton's getting run at like right guard and stuff. He's not getting run.

He's starting. He's their starting. Overstein, right? Yeah. Watch Jeff Stoutland turned him into an all pro guard. Dude. It's going to happen. What, I mean, I think it's a great spot for Mackayton.

I wouldn't have ever like pegged him to be the right guard for the Eagles. But if it's going to happen somewhere, this feels like a right. you know right next to lane johnson i mean what a what an opportunity for him i didn't even i forgot they had signed him until like there's a i was watching one of their preseason games i was like what the heck maca i like they showed the projected starter can't miss him you can't miss him on the field guard what is happening right now right yeah plan i think dallas is going to be a decent team but they're not a team that i take overly seriously with concerns on both sides of ball in terms of the trenches that's not where i want to have question marks like is cd lamb ready to go

what's what's happening there i mean is he officially still a dnr did not report dude i yuk lamb and chase have not done a thing yet so this room christ jones did this last year with the chief so then like the day after their first game right remember he sat against the lions and right night then they got that extension done um i wonder if it's going to be similar with these guys it's a little i feel like a little different though with receivers because like the timing and rhythm is so important of what you do and you miss the entire off season with your quarterback not great right yeah and if he's not dude if he's not around like brandon caught brandon cook's not a one right no not anymore no it's tough yeah i for good things about tollbert though they just they just dude they didn't do

anything i'm here i'm here cooper bb is going to win that starting center job too which no so they're they're going to have multiple rookies starting out of two rookie stars in a line that will pay dividends for them in the long run, but they're not going to see the fruit of that labor right now. That's going to be probably a growing pain experience there. Right. And Terrance Steel has got to play better than they did last year at right tackle. So I question marks with that football team. Yeah.

All right. So that's the NFC East. Let's now go to the NFC South, Brett Whitefield. How do you see this shaking out? Per my sheet, I have the Flackens winning because I spelled it wrong. Yeah, I've been in that spot before. So I've got the Falcons winning the division. I've got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finishing second place, followed by the New Orleans Saints.

And then lastly, the Carolina Panthers. It's funny, as much as I've praised the Panthers for their offseason, I still have them finishing comfortably last. So in a not so good division either. But I kind of see the Falcons running away with this at some point. I just think the upgrades to QB is significant, whether it's cousins or Pennix. Yeah, I think with Atlanta, the two defensive moves that they just made with Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon, I mean, kind of answered two of my biggest questions about that team is, do they have enough edge rush and, you know, do they have enough in the secondary? And I think that they very quickly answered those questions with two moves here on the doorstep of the season.

I do have Atlanta winning this division. I do have Tampa at number two. I have the Saints and the Panthers, both at 5 and 12, but the Panthers win the tiebreaker. So the Panthers are third. Saints are fourth. But I think the Saints are a mess, man. Like, everything's new on. offense. Everything's new on offense. Derek Carr's not very good. Their tackle situation is an

absolute nightmare with no ram check. Penning can't play. We'll see what Fulaga can do. There's just too much, there's too much to overcome an offense. Defensively, I think they're going to be a pretty good football team. But I, this feels like a team that's ready to like kick Dennis Allen to the curve between what happened at the end of the season last year, the way that Dennis Allen is talking about Kendrae Miller, just not a not a guy that I think is going to be able to maintain this locker room for the season. Yeah, they, um, they're another one of these teams that kind of forgot there was an offseason.

Well, what are they supposed to do? They don't have 90 million over the cap every year. Yep, this happens every year. I will, the one thing I'll praise them for is it looks like, uh, my guy, tell you say Fuaga is starting at left tackle. I just love that they're, they're not doing the guard thing right away with him. Um, because I think, I think the dude can play tackle. So I'm excited about that.

But that's about it. I, I agree that this should be close with the Panthers. For the Panthers, I'm leaning into, I like Coach Overeaux on defense. And now I wish that he had more on the past rush. I wish he had another corner. So that concerns me. But I think, I think he's a coach that's proven to be able to kind of get more out of his talent. I think that'll continue.

And then offensively, like this offensive line should give them a real chance to function a little bit. Yeah. In ways that they couldn't last year. I have them five and 12, man. I'm not like, I'm not, you know what I mean? So that's, it's it. we're debating this because those were the teams that we had flipped. But I just feel like there's more,

there's just more momentum with Carolina than there is New Orleans. I agree with that. One thing is the Saints are so good on defense every year. That's the only thing I keep coming back to is like. Right, but if Dennis Allen loses this team. Yeah. The defense could give them some stability, though, to where they're competitive in every game to an extent, you know?

I don't know. Their past could be good, though, but. Could be like the Panthers last year where like the Panthers defense, was actually pretty good, but because there was zero complimentary football played, it didn't matter, right? They gave up a ton of points, but they didn't give up a ton of yards. That's true. We both see Atlanta one, Tampa, two. I'm concerned about Tampa as well. I think they have offensive line questions on the interior and defensively, do we have pass rush off the edge? Do we have another starting caliber linebacker? Do we have another starting caliber corner? Those are big

question marks for that football team. Huge. And Atlanta just feels like, I mean, dynamic. young playmakers, veteran experience offensive line, a coaching upgrade. They've reinforced their defense in some ways that they needed to to go with kind of a strong nucleus. That's feeling for the team. Their moves imply that they feel like they can win it, obviously. You know, this late going after those two defensive players, like they're loading up, you know?

Gosh, I just, I love their offensive line too. Really good makeup. Yeah, super underrated. They're going to make that offense, you know, competitive pretty much no matter what. So right. And the stability, and you've kind of talked about this a lot, is Kirk is 13, but also very same language he's been speaking his whole career. Yep. With a good offensive line and dynamic playmakers that are just young. And I think he can help unlock their ceilings. Drake London's going to have a year, isn't he? Big year. It feels like it. Yeah. I mean, you're paying the price for that in fantasy right now. I think he's going like in the second round of most drafts for guys unproven. Right. Funny stat for you.

Jahan Dotson has more touchdowns than Drake London. And it was like Drake London, Jameson Williams, and Trelon Burks combined or something like that. Three guys drafted. No, and Chris Olavet. You can't even use the quarterback argument because Jahan Dotson hasn't had a good quarterback either. He's had nobody. Right. Maybe he's not too bad. All right. So that's the AFC South, which gets us to the, excuse me, the NFC South.

Yeah. NFC North is up next. And I guess it's my opportunity to go first year. Winning this division is the Lions. The Lions win the division. The Packers are two, Bears at three, Vikings F. We see this one the same. Exactly the same. So let's get into it.

Some people, I mean, Packers are a big time momentum team. People are buying into the Packers. There's plenty of reason to like what's going on with the Packers. What for you has Detroit winning this over Green Bay? The roster is in such a good place. The continuity with this team with the coaching staff. I mean, the whole coaching staff is coming back. Such a win.

Yeah, such a win. Continuity with the offensive line. They added some dudes on the D-line this off-season. They obviously rebuilt their secondary. But just top to bottom, that roster, like from the starters standpoint, you can't really find a hole. Lineback room is pretty loaded. Secondary has a potential to be loaded. D-line is probably top, fringe top 10-ish, not great,

but O-line is probably best in the league, skill players coming out your rear. And then Jared Goff has just given them such a stable baseline in what to expect as offense obviously finishing top five each of the last two years. That's what it is for me. Just so much stability. They've been there as well. They've gone through the trial of being the team that was bad

and then building up to the NFC championship last year. I think they won't feel the pressure. sure as much as, you know, they did last year even, which could really help them kind of keep their minds clear down the stretch. That said, man, the Packers are good. They have a lot of exciting. Like, I think Jordan Love has a potential to offer a bigger ceiling. Sure. Sure. Which could open the door for the Packers surpassing the lines at some point. I would predict that to happen after this season at some point, probably not this season though. Yeah, I agree. It's the coaching continuity with Detroit. Um, that really,

And I think they've upgraded in some spots. I think they're better at corner. I think they're better on their interior defensive line with DJ Reader. I mean, nobody ran the ball against the lines last year. And it was Benito Jones, right, to go with Aline McNeil. And now you have DJ Reader. Come on, man. Or what if you go Jones and Tyson Aluolu.

Right. We've gotten better here. And man, maybe Zeiler might be an upgrade as well at guard. I don't know if that's a hot. Okay. I don't know if that's a high. I know that the big money was there for Jackson. But I'm like, I don't know, man.

I think Zyler might be the better player here. I mean, and then it's, it's that plus it's all the young players entering year two. Brian Branch, Jack Campbell, Jamir Gibbs. Certainly there's another player that I'm not thinking of. Sam Bortner. That's exactly the one. Those guys in year two, come on, man, with stability around them. Yep.

And so, again, Packers are thinking it going to be awesome. I have the Packers finishing with one of the four best records in the NFL. Okay, so I think very highly of the Packers. We'll get to that. Yeah. Jeff Halfley taking over this defense, buddy, I don't know what to expect. I have no idea what to expect. I like so many of their pieces, but that's a, that's an interesting transition and a needed transition, but until I kind of see that

come together, you know, I have my questions. I think Jordan loving this offense is going to be really good. I mean, talk about continuity. Yep. That pretty much ran it back and swapped out, they swap out, what, Runyon for Morgan at guard, and they swap out Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs. and all the young players continue to kind of solidify themselves around Jordan Love in this offense. I'd like so much about it. Like I said, one of the four best records in the league. But the problem is the lions are in this division. I like them a tick more.

Yeah, I agree. I think the question marks with Green Bay's defense, you know, until those are answered, I think we just have to temper expectations a little bit for the Packers as all. Right. I have the Vikings finishing last in this division, but still with a pretty respectable record. I have them at 7 and 10. Nice. And I think what that when I was going through the schedule, like, I feel like the Vikings played a lot of rookie quarterbacks. And I'm like, Flores is going to kill these guys. You know what I mean? As long as Sam Darnold just doesn't blow it on offense, which we've seen Kevin O'Connell get a lot of decent quarterback production out of worst quarterbacks than Sam Darnold. You know, I think you'll have a decent chance to be okay. I'm not expecting him to suddenly become the number three overall pick that he was drafted to be. But I think, I think they, I think the schedule shakes up. pretty well for Minnesota to not be an absolute disaster.

Yeah, and one thing I like about the offense, too, they got a little bit better scheme fits with their running backs. You know, Kevin O'Connell wants to be the stretch zone, mid zone, outside zone, heavy team. Aaron Jones, one of the best in the business of that stuff. You know, he comes over from the backers. And then Ty Chandler also good at that stuff, but not really a heavy volume type of player. So I think those two play off of each other a little bit better than, you know, Alexander Madison who's probably should be purely a gap runner at, you know, this stage, you know,

from what we've seen from him. So I think this, you know, I'm not a big running backs matter kind of guy, but the stability and given the baseline, I think they've got a pretty good offensive line. There's some questions at guard, but from a tackle standpoint, they are set up, ready to win. I think the Vikings are one of the better last place finishers in the league. Right. Whenever we first started becoming friends, Aaron Jones was like one of your guys. I remember that during the process. You're like, you got to watch this U-Tep running back. I'm like, oh, man, he doesn't go down. He doesn't get tackled. So that's a good thing. Bears, here's the deal with the Bears. I like their trajectory, of course. I still think

they need another piece on this defensive line, maybe too. And I need to see Caleb. Williams, I need to see Caleb Williams like play winning football, you know, like, and I'm sure he can. I have, we'll get to Caleb Williams later, hint, hint, wing week, but like, I don't, I don't know what to, I don't know what to expect out of him. Like, I know there's going to be dazzling moments. I know that. I'm concerned about the rest of it though. Yeah, I mean, same. I'm actually not too worried about this offense, but the defense, well, so offense, they'll have growing pains because it is a rookie quarterback, but defensively, that's where I have the biggest questions. Their secondary looks pretty good, but outside of that, they have

major holes. T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmins might be the most overpaid linebacker duo in NFL history. Not a big turn of what they're doing there. Just lacking a lot of coverage ability. It's been funny to see the other linebackers deals that have come in since the Edmonds deal, and they're not coming close. No. Not even coming close. I think that's, that feels like the initial Jets contract that was signed with C.J. Mosley, where it actually didn't affect the market. It was such a big dollar amount. We had two after mostly, right? Wasn't it? Roquan and then Edmonds? Yeah, we had, no, it was Fred Warner. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, that's, that's interesting. I just think they're, they're pretty soft in the middle, starting at defensive tackle, up to the linebackers. I think,

you know, the one thing about their D-line is all those guys are okay against the run. They're just not going to have a lot of juice as pass rushers. So. All right, do you want to do the, the playoff seedings here? or? Let's do that. Okay. All right. How do you got it? I got lines with the one seed.

No bias here at all. I mean, I have the lines. The one seed too. That makes me feel better. Yeah. When I went through their schedule, a lot of people think they, and I know we talked about this on the NFC North show specifically, a lot of people think they have a tough schedule. But when you look at when they catch their harder games, it favors them a lot.

They're getting the bills, for example, on 10 days rest. They're getting the Texans on some extra rest. and I think they're getting the 49ers on some extra rest. Plus, they don't travel any miles. They're like the fifth least miles traveled this year. I couldn't find a game. It wasn't until week eight against the Packers where I feel like, yeah, I might pick the other team in this game.

That was the first time that happened for me going through their schedule. So I think I have them starting 7 and 1 or 8 no or whatever, which just sets them up for the one seed. After that, I have the 49ers at 2, the Eagles at 3, the Falcons at four and then my three wildcard teams that we haven't yet well we've talked to them in some regard but the Packers at 5

the Dallas Cowboys at 6 the Los Angeles Rams at 7 Remind me of your 2 3 3 49ers 2 Eagles 3 Falcons 4 Yeah how about this we got the exact same order 1 through 7 Yeah 1 through 7

I have Lions 1 49ers 2 Eagles 3 Falcons 4 Packers 5 Raim 6 Cowboy 6 ram 7 That's incredible. So we didn't do the show before the show, but it feels we did. Yeah. And I guess the next, I have the Rams making it at 9 and 8.

And then I have the bears, the Seahawks, and the Bucks all missing it at 8 and 9. The Bucks would have been my 8 if we were to do it that way. Bucks were my 8 seed. I think they'll be in that battle for that last spot up until the very end. So there's the NFC. I can't, I can't believe we. We see that exactly the same. That's crazy. I don't think that's going to be the case in the AFC.

Agreed. When you're flying Emirates business class, dining on a world-class menu at 40,000 feet, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates, fly better. It's a little murkier. A little more murky. Okay, let's start in the NFC West. AFC West.

How many times are we going to? brother, I don't know. It's tough. All right. AFC West, it is. You want me to throw first? Yeah, go ahead. All right. I got the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by, this is going to shock you, the Las Vegas Raiders, followed by the Los Angeles Chargers. And lastly, the Denver Broncos. Okay, I have it as the Chiefs won, the stunning Raiders at two.

Oh, come on. I believe in the Raiders a little bit, man. The Chargers at three and the Broncos at four. so we have the same thing here. I thought that was what we'd be different on for sure. No, I like, I like Vegas, man. I think that defensively, I'm kind of in on what they have going on with Pierce. And they have some transitional elements of their offense,

but I'm not sure that they're like concerning. I mean, maybe Garnerman, and choose a better player than Aden O'Connell is, you know, and they shift away from a couple players on the right side of that offensive line, but I think they have some good depth and some young players ready to step in. They got this idea of working in Brock, Brock Bowers, with Michael Marin running 12 personnel. Running backs don't matter. So Zamir White's going to be just fine. I think they're going to be okay, man. And there's

them, I mean, you could, you can make a case for some of these other teams, but the Raiders are, I think that they, they can embrace a winning style of football with their defense and ability to run the ball. That's going to keep them around 500. I agree with you. And the fact that they have arguably the best defensive player in the league helps their cause in a lot of reasons. They added Christian Wilkins of that mix. I think they got a chance. to be a little nasty on defense, man. No question. Yeah, I mean, like you think about, the most extreme example would be the Browns last year, right? Yep. But I think like a mini version of the Browns, I got them going eight and nine, dude. So it's like, I'm not like losing

my mind here. Yeah, right, right, right. But I think that says more about the rest of the division than it, than it really does to me, the Raiders. I agree. Eight and nine, but a frisky eight and nine. Frisky. You don't want to plan. You don't want to plan. Early stage lines vibes. Like, you know, Campbell's whole speech about dragging, dragging your opponent out into deep water. Yeah, yeah. And just holding them long enough to drown them. That's going to be the Raiders this year. I think that's going to be their goal is just like, can we outlast our opponent?

Can we just beat them to a pulp to where they eventually just wave the white flag? And I think they'll win some games just doing that. So what about the Chargers has you putting them at three and not two? Roster's a mess. I mean, it's tough because they do get a little bit bigger ceiling, obviously, with Herbert over like a gardener, minchu. But the roster is a mess. I've been telling you guys all offseason how bad this wide receiver core is.

But no, for real, they were in a similar situation with the Saints where they were in salary cap purgatory. For those of you who say that's not an actual thing, it is. Look at these two teams. They don't have off seasons. They had to trade some of their best players just to get under the cap and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Not easy. And so, you know, that's hurting them on offense. And then on defense, this team has not been good defensively in like a long time.

and Joey Bosa hasn't been healthy in three or four years. Khalil Mack is still a pretty good player, but he's not what he was. I just got major question marks all over the place on defense. And I think, you know, in a division with a very physical, physical nature raiders, the chiefs you can go toe to toe with you from a physicality standpoint, and they have the passing weapons they do. I just think they're going to get beat up quite a bit on defense, like badly. Yeah.

It's all about the defense for me. I don't think their defensive line is a serious situation. Nope. I mean, I like Tui Tui Tewipa. That's probably my favorite thing about their defensive line. Linebackers, who knows, man? Who knows? Do we have, you know, is Christian Fulton going to find his game?

Do we have a slot corner? I don't know, man. I'm concerned. Yeah. Juster Taylor was really bad last year. I routinely picked on him in fantasy, just doing matchups, whether I was playing props or DFS, you know, Josh Sir Taylor was a guy I picked on literally all year long.

And then the Broncos is it, I think questions about the defense there, rookie quarterback. I don't think they're going to be terrible, but it's hard for me to think about them not being three or four in this division. For sure. What do you think the likelihood is they finish third and not fourth? Do you think there's a chance they? I have the chargers and Broncos separated by one game.

So, yeah, I think it's tight. Head to head, how'd you have them finishing? like against each other one-on-one? Yeah, I'm sure. If I know myself, I had them splitting, but I do have all the results right here. And that's exactly what I have. I have them splitting.

Okay. So it could come down to how that season matchup works out, right? If the Broncos take two from the Chargers, they might finish ahead of them. Exactly right. And they play, they're kind of spaced out these games. The first time they play is week six, and the Chargers have extra rest.

And then they play again in Week 16 in L.A. So, all right, that's the AFC West. Let's go to the AFC South. Brett Whitefield, this is how I have it. The Texans winning this division. The Colts at two, excuse me, the Jaguars of two, the Colts at three, the Titans at four. Can you say that again? I missed your first one.

Texans one. Okay. Jaguars two, Colts three, Titans four. All right. This is our first major disagreement. Okay. I have the Jaguars winning the division. I have the Colts finishing second.

Oh. And I had the Texans third and the Titans last. Let's talk about it, Brett Whitefield. I have a team winning this division. By three games, by the way, by three games that you have finishing third. Yeah. Why don't you like the Houston Texans? It's not even that.

I think all three of these teams are good and competitive. And I think they'll all be in the mix for the playoffs. ultimately I started watching some more of their tape I don't think the O line played as good as we thought it did there was some issues there last year I think this could be problematic

we've already talked about C.J. Stroud at nauseam on the show about how he got away with a lot the more I watch his tape the more I actually leave a little bit less impressed than I was the last time and I don't know how that's possible. Still good, it's still good for a rookie for sure all that said I'm not sure they're the offensive juggernaut they're being billed as.

And I know for the fantasy people listening to, like we've been scooping up all these parts like, oh, you just want to have pieces of this offense. I'm not sure it's that simple. Defensively, do we have cornerbacks that aren't named Derek Stingley Jr.? I think this is a big problem, man. Camarro Lasseter is a rookie. You know, his tape is okay at Georgia. Not a great athlete.

Big concerns there. Can he run with some of these, you know, alpha receivers in this division even i don't i don't know and you know Xavier worthy Hollywood brown devante adams like these guys can all get vertical on you in a hurry um i have major concerns did i say they're they're not in the same division what am i why did i say those are players there's important people in the afc yeah yeah um and then desmond king is he's not the player he used to be too so i have major issues with the secondary i know they're loaded up on d line to try to, you know, offset that with Will Anderson Jr. and Daniel Hunter, like a great

pass-rass duo, right? Mario Edwards Jr. provides a little pop as a three-tech. Not probably going to get it done on the run game, however. And then linebackers, I'm not, I'm not too confident in what we're getting there out of their linebacker play. So I'm just, ultimately, I think the defense has major question marks. I think Damiro Ryan is doing what classic defensive coordinators do, which is like, hey, don't worry about the defense. I got that. I'll coach it up. let's invest all of our resources into the offensive side of the ball to make sure we're good there because there's a control aspect where he might not necessarily understand that element of it as much. I just have major question marks with the defense and I just don't think the offense is going to perform at the level people think it will.

Okay, so let's talk about this. You mentioned the offensive line and it not quite being as good as you thought it might have been last year, which I think is explainable due to the amount of injuries that they had. I mean, they played a million different left guards. they played, had two different centers. They had to play routinely throughout the season. Left and right tackle were not stable either just because of injuries.

So I think if that team can stay healthy with the offensive line, it'll perform better. I do think that there's a lot to consider with C.J. Stroud's a rookie season in terms of what he did get away with that. I think that's true. I think that could be offset by better offensive line year two in the system and the arrival of Stefan Diggs to round out the receiver core. And his own personal growth as a year two player.

defensively, I think the most compelling thing there to me is the interior defensive line. I feel like this team's going to give up some rushing yards for sure. I hear you on the cornerback too, but I think this type of defense, you can kind of hide an athlete like a Camarie Lasseter. And I think with the emergence of Sting, you can ask him to kind of play man and change your math a little bit to help with Camarie Lasseter. and yeah, I think it's fair to call out that Des King's been a highly inconsistent player,

but like, does that mean they can lean into more Jimmy Ward or Jalen Petrie in the slot and start working in a, you know, Kalyn Bullock who they picked in the third round as a deep safety? So I think they have some options there. Yeah. Then you'll be in a situation where you have two rookies on the field that aren't high pedigree guys.

I don't know. I have concerns. I have concerns. I think they're fair. I don't have the Texans as like the number one seat in the A or anything like that. I think for me, I guess I'm a little bit lower on the Jaguars and Colts. I think they're going to be decent teams. But there's a piece of this offense for Jacksonville that just has me nervous. I mean, Kirk, Ingram, Thomas, Davis, but it's like the situational

consistency of Trevor Lawrence that I think concerns me in terms of like high leverage moments in games. Red zone, big third downs, latent games. I just feel like that's where his worst tendencies he's kind of continued to pop up as a player. And with Doug Peterson, there's this piece of me that's concerned that this is now like the second place that he's been where you feel like the more he's involved, you know what I mean? Like the worst it gets.

Now, we'll see he's got to, he gets this year to kind of prove that. He's loyal to a fault. We know that, right? Press Taylor probably should have lost his job last year. Right.

Yeah. So that is a concern. Criticism of Trevor Lawrence are fair, by the way. You know, it hasn't been perfect for him. At times it's been pretty ugly. I do think he's positioned for a career year. I think his wide receiver core is the best it's ever been. He hasn't truly had a vertical threat in that offense.

Calvin Ridley was supposed to be that guy last year, but he just doesn't have the juice anymore. Still a really good route runner and a guy you can live with on the outside for sure, but didn't have the verticality they want in this offense. When I went back and look at his pedigree with the Andy Reed, and then what he did in Philly, like they need that vertical element to the offense. So adding Brian Thomas Jr., who I think is having a great camp, is going to be a big part of what they do this year. And then, you know, Gabe Davis, for all the jokes about him stinking, I mean, he's their wide receiver three, probably the fourth option in the offense.

I think that's an appropriate way to value him. Now, they might be paying him, you know, too many dollars and cents, but that's neither here than or there when the games are being played, right? So I really feel good about this offense. I think this offense has a chance to be a true juggernaut just because of the consistency of Kirk and Ingram, you know, mixed in with the big play potential of Davis and Thomas. I just think this is like, you know, this is a really good blend of weapons here. And their offensive line is pretty good. It's not great. They need to get better running the football.

Obviously, get a little bit tougher in the trenches. I think health, you know, to Brandon Sheriff and Ezra Cleveland, who played banged up last year, will really help with that. I like the Jaguars on defense. I think they have prototypes everywhere. And I really like Ryan Nielsen as a coordinator. I think he's got a chance to really unlock a lot from this unit. And they have a lot of young developing players that I think will probably play their best football. That's honestly what I get excited about with Jacksonville is more than defense.

Agreed. Defense is a big reason. I think that's a big reason why you picked them to win the division, right? Yeah, yeah, obviously, yeah. I think they probably have the best defense in the division. Trayvon Walker, you know, they got made fun of when they drafted. drafted him first overall. First year was not pretty. He came on hot down the stretch last year. He actually ended the year with double-digit sacks, which most that would blow most people's minds because just because he was a laughing stock for for a while there. So really nice pair with Josh Allen. Um, you know, Joshua Heinz Allen. So sorry, Joshua Heinz Allen. I hate when players change your name. You know, I, I respect why they do it. And I, I think it's those very, you know, noble of him to do that. Right. But. But. But it just stinks for me because I've been called him Josh Allen.

You got to relearn it all the time. All the time we got to deal with this. Yep. And then Armstead is such an upgrade as an interior pass rusher there. Like that that's a big win. They're loaded that linebacker, like absolutely stacked at linebacker. And then I kind of like loki like their secondary men. Yeah.

I just can they be situationally sound as a football team? I got a number two. And you like, you're a big Anthony Richardson guy. I like Anthony Richardson. but you like love them and i feel like that's influencing a lot of your projection with indy yeah i some of this is me trying to be cute i'm trying to predict who that next breakout team is going to be to an extent with the colts here yeah we'll get into our awards later i'll tease i'll tease though i have a colt winning one of our awards that we're going to give out

um i just think it's uh they're in a really good position as well they've got enough weapons on offense the O line is good you know stiking what he brings at the table for Richardson is so I mean we've talked again go back and listen to the the Colts episode we did we talked we gushed right about the stike in Richardson potential here John Taylor again I'm not a running back smatter guy but sometimes it does and everything in the NFL is cyclical and you do you happen to see the best teams the NFL right now can run the ball very well this dude has seen more eight-man boxes in the since he's been in the NFL than any other running back by far by percentage of carries, he's now going to play in a system that's 11 personnel heavy with a mobile quarterback,

with an offensive coordinator that's going to tag read option and RPO on everything. And Jonathan Taylor is going to see six and seven man boxes all season long. I think he's got a chance to lead the league in rushing by, like that'd be my betting favorite right now, actually. It would be John Taylor to lead the NFL in rushing yards. And then flip to the other side, I'm starting to like the combination of like they've been throwing darts at defensive ends and edge players for a long time they finally got one I love and lay out to lay to um you know I'm a

big quitty pay guy Samson Ebukom is a really nice out for the year out for the year oh is he out for the year yeah he's out for the year oh no I missed that yeah yeah shoot that that's honor man Odi young bill and Tyquan lewis are still there I got plenty of depth but yeah Yeah, Adabawaray, too, should have a nice second season here in the NFL. Athletic, tools-y kind of freak. And then across the board, I mean, corners their biggest concern, right? Corners the question here, right? Yep.

If there was one thing, I think that holds them back from their potential. It would be their secondary for sure. All right, that's what gets me a little bit nervous. I think they're going to be a good football team, but I sort of like this division is going to cannibalize itself a little bit. It has the last few years, actually. I think that'll continue. and then like Tennessee as the as the bottom feeder they certainly approach this off season with a lot of intentionality right I mean a very aggressive spending team yep with what

they're able to add it's just it everything is new and I think will levis is fit with brian callahan is a major question mark to see how that marriage is going to go I'm off I'd like will levis I use my qB2 in that draft um or qb3 I think I had I had Richardson ahead of but I liked Will Levis more than Bryce Young. And so I'm like, I'm in on him, but I just, I feel like a timing West Coast offense is a really odd fit for a player like that. Yeah, for me with the Titans, you know, can their offensive line take a step? They were bad last year. They couldn't run the football.

I shouldn't say the efficiency in which they ran the football dropped off a cliff last year. And then on top of that, they couldn't protect the quarterback at all. Look at the pressure rate, even when like Levis was on the field and the smaller sample, it was insane. And that was despite the fact that on the year, their average time to throw is only, it was like 2.54, which is like bottom half of the league in terms of, it was faster than half the league. So that's a big question mark for me. If they can gel a little bit, maybe their potential is a little higher. Yeah, some of the moves they made are interesting. You know, given the huge contract to Calvin Ridley, not sure.

Like, they're rocking a geriatric wide receiver core here. and DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd. Right. Which I like this, though. I'm a big hater of teams that surround developing quarterbacks with developing weapons. True. I think that hurts them.

So like credit to Tennessee for giving Will Levis those guys. Like if you're going to run this offense, okay, cool. Give me those guys where there's a lot of know-how involved to give Will Levis his best opportunity. But between the offensive line and like, can they run it? I don't know. Yeah, without a doubt, they raised the floor of the offense with those wide receivers for sure.

It's just like what is the long term staying power of this group? Yeah. I would have preferred to get two, maybe two vets and a young guy that we'll have us can kind of grow with. But, you know, I haven't met seven and ten as a last place team. So it's not a terrible football team. Okay, the AFC North, this is how I have at Brent Whitefield. I have the Ravens winning this thing.

Yes. The Bengals at two. Yes. The Browns at three. Yes. Steelers a four. Okay. Sounds like you might be aligned with that.

Same. This is another one I thought we'd get tripped up on. I can't believe we see this. Because this is the toughest division of slot, honestly. I tend to agree. I'm out on Pittsburgh's offense, dude, completely out. Whether it's O-line, whether it's these quarterbacks, whether they have a meaningful weapon outside of pickings in the passing game.

You know what I mean? Like too many questions there. And that's a shame because I think their defensive front is potentially going to be awesome. With Highsmith and Watt and Hayward and Og and Joby looks really good. Keanu Benton looks really good. Her big is a young, like that, that's loaded. I'm excited about Keanu Benton this year, man. I think he's going to wreck stuff.

Stud. Stud. And Queen will help the linebackers. I think it's a good team on defense. I think maybe we have a question about one corner spot. But this is not a serious offense with Arthur Smith as a coordinator. Like you have any confidence in this situation whatsoever? Considering the QB situation, maybe it's nice that they have a coordinator who's just going to run the ball no matter what.

You know, like it might actually, what I mean, when I say it might work, I just mean he might be able to maximize what they have. They don't have any receivers. Let's be honest. They have a good stable of running backs and Najah Harris, Jalen Warren, and Cordell Patterson. I like those guys. So like, yeah, I mean, maybe this, maybe he gets the most out of them. But yeah, it's a non-serious offense, just like the Falcons were a non-serious offense the last two, three years as well. So I have them at last.

That gets me to Cleveland. I think Cleveland's the next team to get into here. What's going on here, man? Do we have a, Deshaun, because can he practice more than one day in a row? What's happening there? Are the tackles ready to go? Nick Chubb's not ready to go. Like, I'm just very concerned about this offense.

And I know that they were able to do what they did last year in spite of those things. But come on, man. I feel like that's going to run its course a little bit. Defensively, they're going to be awesome. And that's why I think they're either going to be nine and eight. I haven't a nine eight. It's good football team. But like, I just don't, I don't trust anything with this offense.

And I think that they rode some luck last year into their 11 and 5, six, whatever that they were. Yeah. This team for me was really hard to slot because I think if a couple things go their way, they could win the division. Like it's, I don't know, your defense is that good. But the thing that's really concerning to me is they're starting, how many guys on Pup, four, five guys on Pupp?

Yeah. They might come off before the season starts and they might be on the active roster. What are they going to be like, though? Exactly. These guys weren't camp, though. Willis, Conklin, Chubb, Tomlinson. That's actually a big one for that defense and stopping the run. All those guys on Pup right now.

And then is Newsom Puppers, he, is he NFI maybe? I think he might be NFI. Either way, they got to make a decision on him before week one or else I'm pretty sure. He has to go IR, right? Yeah, he's NFI. Yep, so they got something to figure out there. But still, five of their key players missed all of campus

essentially. Yeah, man, I just, it's a shame because I think if everyone's healthy, their remainder of team outside of quarterback might be the best in the league. Yeah, their roster is stacked. Yep, stacked. But boy, you got too many questions. So I have them at, I have a nine and eight third, right? So it's not, I think you're a good football team.

But Ravens, a lot of transition here with the defense, a lot of transition with the interior offensive line. They're still loaded, man. They're still loaded. I, I want to hate this team every year. I swear to you. Right. Don't do it.

Yeah, don't fall into it. They're so, their roster construction. Now, obviously, they can take a little criticism because they haven't put the final touches yet and got to the Super Bowl, at least recently. But year over year, the way they continue to just reshuffle, reload, and build that roster up is so impressive to me, man. They're probably my favorite team to study as far as that goes, because it's just, it's really impressive what they do. They have their archetypes that they kind of settle in, and they always seem to find their guys later. than they probably should. It's just really impressive.

But yeah, I think their roster is great. It's loaded and they should compete. Sincere, actually, I have Baltimore and Sinci tied at 11 and 6. Tiebreaker goes to Baltimore. So I'm in on Sinci this year. And that's rooted in what I think of Joe Burrow. Yep. Same.

Burrow QB play wins for me. So you got one of the best QBs in the league. You should be pretty good. Right. And I think Von Bell back on that defense, they're going to be reasonably good on defense. they're very like situationally sound football team a lot of times and I love the way that they can adjust with what they do defensively so I think they're going to be a problem this year but one thing that's crazy do you know they move decks Hill to outside corner yeah I think they're

trying to figure that out right they the media depth start they put out has him starting uh oh they put too over at DJ Turner I would assume right the two Michigan boys competing for a spot there obviously am taylor brittsman pretty good since they drafted him yeah and Mike Hilton's a quintessential nickel. That's a surprising development for me, though. They platoon last, they truly platooned what Chidobio Woosie and DJ Turner last year. You thought it was a second round pick entering his second season.

But then Dex Hill is the first round pick entering his third season. You're not going to, you're not going to play slot. Obviously, you don't like him at safety. Hill has very little reps at outside corner. Going back to his college career, I think maybe like 50.

I think he started at corner one game for Michigan because of injuries or something. So like this is a, the fact that. at he's not only transition and he's winning the job, allegedly, that could be actually a good development for them. Like if they made something out of that pick, because right now, that looks like a waste of pick. AFC East, the division everybody cares the most about. Is this our last one? It is. The last one. All right. I got, uh, Jets finishing first. No, I'm kidding. Just want to see your head roll. Buffalo Bills winning this division. The Miami

Dolphins taking the second place thrown, the New York Jets at third, and then the Patriots finishing fourth. And this might be the biggest gap from from last place to third place, I think, among all the divisions here. Yeah, I think that's, I have it the same order. So bills, dolphins, jets, patriots. I think the top three will be very, very competitive. But like you said, then you have a chasm. Yep, down there to get to New England, who's just obviously a rebuilding team, right? They're transitioning, rebuilding. It's, it's not about this year for New England, right? That's what it comes down to. Um, I, you pick the bills. fifth year in a row to win this division.

I certainly feel like there's more competition than ever from dolphins and jets, but what has you leaning back into the bills? I don't want to beat a dead horse. Quarterback play. They have a top three quarterback in the NFL. I expect them. Even if the roster was relatively bad, I would expect them to be good just because Josh Allen is that special.

So that's what it comes down to for me. They're superior than any team in this division by far because of the quarterback. And then when you actually do break into the roster, you see a lot of things you like. I think their offensive line is in a good place. Maybe the best place it's been since Alan's been there as far as continuity goes. I like their collection of pass catchers. Now they have a lot of room to grow.

Kean Coleman has to develop. I know we've had some struggles from him in camp and preseason. And then Samuel and Shakir are nice complimentary skill sets. Dalton Kincaid is an absolute stud. I think they'll be able to run the ball very well this year. defensively if Vaughn Miller's back and in 80% of what he was, I think this defense takes a big step forward. And that's what I'm most excited about is to see this defense.

Christian Benford, Rousseaule, Douglas, Taryn Johnson's a nice corner trio. They got depth in a lot of places, too. You know, maybe not linebacker, maybe they're hurting there. I don't know. It sounds like, is Baylon Spector okay? No, he's never okay. He gets hurt every single week. But it's going to be Dorian Williams next to Terrell Bernard.

Sure, sure. And then I think Diad Jones might be the three. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, cool. Cool. Yeah. So not a lot of holes. You know, if you're looking to find the honey hole, how can we exploit this team? I'm not sure there is one. I think what most people would get concerned about is a transition at safety. If you're looking at the defense, like is Taylor Rap plus one of Cole Bishop, Mike Edwards, Damar Hamlin. Is that going to be sound enough? But I think this, Sean McDermott's always had safety production throughout his entire career, whether it's Philly, Carolina, Buffalo. I think that will wind. up being okay. I mean, yeah, I think Josh Allen is a heck of a reason to point to the bills. Obviously, the battle tested team as well. And I almost kind of like the bills having some doubt, right? I feel like the last couple, two, three years, everybody predict the bills win the Super

Bowl, right? And finally, like, here's some doubt. You can kind of rally behind that. And I expect, I'm excited to see Josh Allen operate in this offense where he's not thinking about throwing the ball to Stefan Diggs $100. 60 times. Just run the play. I'm excited to see what that looks like. And I do think the run game is going to be a notable part of what this team is. So I like some of that direction. Sorry, real quick, not to cut you off. Are you aware that they finished third and adjusted yards

before contact last year? Yeah. And then they don't get anything post contact. I'm fully aware of this. Yeah. So I'm very excited for Ray Davis. I want the listeners to know, though, how impressive that is. this is a team that traditionally didn't do stuff like that. And when we say adjusted yards before contact, the adjustment we're making there is we're taking quarterback runs out of the sample. This is just O-line versus D-line, running back. How many yards is he getting before contact? 2.07 is a really good number.

That's up there with the Lions and some of the most competitive teams in the league. Aaron Kromer's one heck of an offensive line coach and one hack of an offensive run game coordinator type guy. and his influence there. They get, they are able to, they run a lot of dart with their, with their tackles and pull Dawkins and Brown who are big time athletes. And then they got physical interior players that can kind of hold at the point of

attack and really just introduce playside gaps that teams are not expecting with like crazy good athletes. And I'm excited to see Ray Davis behind that because I think he's, his ability to take advantage of things post-contact in ways that James Cook can't, gets me, gets me pretty excited about that. So we both have the bills and then we both have the dolphins at number two. I think that Miami, I think they're going to be really good on offense. I think you want to point out questions with their interior offensive line. I think that's well warranted.

But I think for them, the arrival of players like Jonu Smith, more depth at running back with Jalen Wright to have a third receiver, whether I know that Craigcraft is hurt right now, but maybe as you calm is a thing there, maybe O'Dell Beckham Jr. The point being as I think it's going to be, it still should be a lot about Hill and Waddle, but I think that the dolphins have more and other ways that they can go to. And if you're going to, if those guys are going to affect vertical spacing in ways that I think they can, having run after catch guys, I think they're going to get A-chan going a lot more as like a slot type receiver. I think that offense is going to be nasty.

Everyone's freaking out because A-chan caught the, what the vertical was a go-ball. He's going to play in the slot. Yeah, there was a wheel from the slot. that's what it was in the place. He's going to do it. So people are losing their mind about that. But yeah, getting those guys in space, Johnny Smith underrated ad, man. For this team, yeah, like where you could just dump and run to that guy?

Yep. That's, uh, offense should, you know, not have any issues. The big question with the offense is can Mike McDaniel adapt as a play caller? Because he's been stats oriented. He, I mean, they came out to literally came out and said in the levitar interview that their objective was to get Tyree killed 2,000 yards. And they played football games like that was their point. Like that that's what they wanted to do.

Yeah, that's not great. Right, their play call sequencing was going to be, if that's off the table and they're just going to play football to their capabilities and lean more into their run game, I think that's going to lead to a more cohesive unit. Jalen Waddle is a much better player than he's produced, or at least last year, in my opinion. So there's no reason you have to force a ball of Tiger Hill when you have Jalen Waddle. Those guys are both. Just play.

Yeah, just play ball. Defensively, the transition, right? I'll go offensive line, yeah. concerned you at all of was just the health of these guys, arm tremendously concerned. Yeah, Brewers banged up. Ikemberg's not very good. They signed Driscoll, who I think might be one of their answers at guard, but otherwise we're leaning into Robert Jones.

Isaiah Wynn has been MIA. He's hurt always, and he's had complicating issues from the quad issue. Yeah. Like I think there's plenty to be concerned about with that interior offensive line. But it's, it's the Shanahan style where it's like, we don't need offensive line talent. We need guys that can hold her head above water and we'll let the scheme do the rest. Yep. They don't care about it.

They put up big, big time offenses every year. For sure. Defensively, my biggest concern here is pass rush. Simply for the fact that all these guys are coming back from catastrophic injuries. You know, Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb, like, I don't think these guys are going to be ready to rock for some time yet. And then Chob Robinson, the rookie coming in, it's like, you know, he's not a very developed, refined player. Can they scheme him up and create some fun pressure look to them? Sure. Sure. But like, you don't want to have to rely. on that. Seeler is a good player and we'll see if like they're going to need a guy like Neville Gallimore

to help in terms of that interior pass rush. And I know he's had a flashy preseason, but I think his career has told you a different story. And this will help a little bit. He will help with that for sure. They have some, I don't think that their secondary needs to stay healthy as well. And I think they're going to be interchangeable with Kohoo and Ramsey with playing inside and outside. But, you know, Cam Smith hasn't proven that he's ready to play meaningful snaps for that team yet. So. So Rashad Weaver first year coordinator, there's a transition piece there as well to be mindful of. I do like the secondary though. I think talent-wise, they're one of the more talented groups in the league for.

Yeah. Oh, yeah, for sure. Jets, real quick here. I have them third. You have them third. What this comes down to for me is we haven't seen good quality quarterback play from Aaron Rogers in three years. He didn't play at all last year. He's 40 years old.

They're relying on a bunch of players that are historically hurt. Mike Williams, Tyrant Smith, Elijah Vera Tucker. These guys are always banged up. I think their defensive line has less depth than it's had in years, recent years. Well, so that's with Hassan Redick. Yeah, what that situation seems like a nightmare. But so that I think they're, I have them at night. I have them as a playoff team, spoiler.

I don't like hate the Jets. But I think there's enough here for me to. And Robert Salah as like a leader of men, has he, boy, does he got a lot to prove to me. Agree with you there. I look at this depth chart on defense and I don't know how their defense has been. so good. Is that weird? It's a weird thought to have. I don't know. Like,

their secondary is good. Like, sauce, DJ Reed, Michael Carter, fine, cornerback unit. A lot to be desired at safety, though. Yeah. And they don't, I mean, the transition away from, like, Jordan Whitehead was a key part of that safety room the last couple years. He's not,

he's not around anymore. Right. And then, like, Jermaine Johnson, is he ready to be a dog as a pass rusher? Is Will McDonald ready to take a step forward? Like, they got some unanswered questions here on the D-line. Yeah, I like Johnson, but yeah, I think the rest of that, there's questions. I think they would, Redick's the player that they need to be part of this mix. Michael Clemens is okay, but, yeah. Kim, law hasn't been very good. Correct.

Lucky Foto is more of a run-stopping stuffer kind of guy, not a pass rusher. Solomon Thomas can't rush the passer. Their pass rush options run out real quick if they don't get Hassan Redick into the, into the fold here. Like, let's live in a world where Mike Williams isn't available. what are we doing here it's garret wilson alan lazard Xavier gipson malachi corley yeah rogers has to live with this right he did this he brought in his guys last year they could have well they had a randle cobb Alan Lazard

even uh was Xavier gipson came from the Packers too right no it wasn't he uh he he could have been he could have been now you're going to have me crossed up on that but um I thought he was like a UDFA last year if I was not mistaken okay okay so how do you how do you have this AFC shaking out I got one seat is the chiefs, go figure, go figure, two Ravens, three bills, four jags, five, I have the dolphins, six, I have the Bengals, and seven I have the Colts. All right, we got some different stuff going on here. Yeah, I know, no jets for me, which you've already spoiled.

Yeah, which I don't know, maybe I'm crazy for, maybe I should be putting Jacksonville in. You got the conversation that we just had, maybe I need to swap those teams. But going into this conversation, I had it one chiefs, two Ravens, three Texans, four bills, five Bengals, six dolphins, seven jets. But boy, am I close to switching that to the Jaguars. We're way, we're way different. Right. Yeah. We, you probably did a better job of putting each schedule under a microscope.

Like, I consulted the schedule, knowing you that. you used your website and you predicted every game results. I'm a process-oriented guy as I sit here and look at this Jaguars team. I think I'm going to go ahead and give them a win right here. Let's go. Well, I had the Browns beating them in week two. I'm going to switch that. Okay.

I switch that. So that gets the Jaguars to 9 and 8. They're your 7 seed. Goodbye Jets. So there you go. It's officially switched. Get out of here, New York Jets. Nice.

I love it. I'd love to see the Jets. not make the playoffs too oh buddy you would love to see that the jets hype train every year is out of control and buddy they haven't met those expectations a single time let's keep it going yep all right we don't want to drag this out but super bowl prediction here who you got or just give me your was that part of what i was supposed to do i don't know no uh no i don't have i don't come on i'll go i'll go uh lions loses the chiefs in zero rule give me the lions from the i think i think the lions come out of the NFC. I do.

From the AFC. The Lions Bills. You're going to do it. I'm not going to do that. Are you kidding me? Plus five out. I'm drafting. Brent Whitefield. If if Lions Bills is the Super Bowl in year one of the NFL first read podcast, buddy. We're watching the game together, right? I don't even, I don't even know how to approach that conversation in terms of like what my game day routine would be. Who, where, you know what I mean?

What I want to just go ahead and be in Buffalo. So that way the parade happened, I was already there. There's so many things. Oh, man. You know what I was going to propose is I book the family flights to Charlotte, you know, we come down, we get an Airbnb close to the Marino family, and then we break bread and watch

the super world together, and then whatever you do after that's on you, you want to fly out to Buffalo, you know. I have a flight scheduled. Oh, God. I don't, my AFC picks got to be the chiefs, right? We've got to do the same thing here. How do you, the chiefs are inevitable. They feel inevitable, unfortunately. Especially because your team is so,

I feel bad because your team is so good. It's like, Josh has to get one, man. He's got to get it. He's going to at some point. I don't think he's going to be shut out for his career. But could Patrick Mahones been born at a different time than he was, you know, could where, brother, Pat, where were you during the 2000s to spoil this Patriots dynasty? Right.

You had to be born when you were born. Come on. Yeah. All right. We're, we're an hour 12 deep and we wanted to give you our award winners. Maybe let's not deliberate a lot and hit heavy convos. Let's just want to give the people the, the awards and get out of here.

Give them the picks and get out of here. All right. My MVP is Patrick Mahomes. My MVP, don't hate me. It's Jordan Love. I don't hate you. I think that's a fair bet. I have four teams in the NFL that are 12 and 5 are better.

The Lions, Packers, 49ers, and Chiefs. And if that's the case, Jordan loves your MVP. I agree. Because golf and Purdy won't do enough. No, they can't do it. They're impossible. And they're impossible. Have that extra to their game.

100%. It could be one of them for sure. Right. And if Mahomes has a normal year. It doesn't matter, right? Everybody expects him to have a normal year. Yep. So offense,

offense player of year. I was going to go CD land, but the fact that he hasn't reported yet, I got a pivot. I'm going to go Tyreek. And you just confirmed even more that I should because they're trying to get the man 2000 yards. Well,

they were last year. I don't know if that's going to be the case anymore. I'm going to Tyree kill, though. I have a pick, but I want to change it. Well, good. Give both. Who do you have?

My original pick was Bejan Robinson, but I want to switch it to Jonathan Taylor. Oh, did I convince you in my course? Yeah. Okay. All right. Jonathan Taylor would have been my third pick for what it's worth. Tyree,

Sam and Taylor. The only thing I think could hold Taylor back, I said we wouldn't talk about it, but I guess I am. Anthony Richardson could score 15 touchdowns on the ground, which could kill Taylor. Yeah, I hear you on that,

but don't you feel like they're going to want to be a little bit cautious with A. Rich? I do. Especially when you have Jonathan Taylor. I do. I do feel like they should do that for sure. Yes. Defensive player of the year,

I was stuck between two guys. Max Crosby was the one I didn't pick. and then I ended up going with Aden Hutchinson. The one I did pick is Max Crosby. Let's go. He's a monster and now he's got another player, right? Him and Christian Wilkins next to each other is not. Going up against, going to go to Denver team place.

Come on, man. Yeah, I think I picked Hutch. He was a monster last year. I think the sack total comes up this year playing next to DJ Reader. Like readers should have a similar effect on Hutch as Wilkins does on Crosby. Yo, Crosby gets the Panthers. He gets the Broncos twice. He gets the Steelers and the corpse of Broderick Jones.

Does he get New England? He might have nine sacks on that game if he does. He does not get New England. They play Miami from that division. That's a real shame. Yeah. A real shame. All right.

Who is your offensive rookie of the year? Caleb Williams. Okay. I figured the way you teased that earlier with the Bears. I went Marvin Harrison Jr. Caleb Williams is an obvious pick. Jaden Daniels is even an obvious pick because they're quarterbacks. I was like, let me do a non-quarterback.

I think Marvin Harrison, Jr. could go 1,510 as a real. Yeah, but three rookie starters. If any of them have a decent year, they're going to stiff arm any running back or wide receiver. Agreed. Agreed. Defensive rookie, who'd you go with? Lay two lot to. Same.

Sacks are going to be there, man. Best defensive player in the draft. He's sacks are going to be there for sure. Coach of the year. Dan Campbell. Oh, nice. I feel like he missed his window. His window to win was last year because they came kind of out of the ashes to be.

great. But I went Shane Steichen. And when you see the way I picked all of this to happen, that makes sense, right? Colts getting into the playoffs over the Texans, probably sets up Shane Steichen. Sure. Yeah, you probably have 11, 12 wins. Yeah, I get it. That's a good, logical pick based on your methodology, sir. Yep. All right, is that it? Do we do it? We did it. That's your season preview, folks. Season preview, Chiefs winning the Super Bowl again. I didn't say that. I didn't say that. I know, I know, but I did. All right, remember, folks, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read. Thank you for listening.

We are out.