Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Jared Goff Contract Extension + AFC North Breakdown

Episode Date: May 17, 2024

Join hosts Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino on NFL First Read as they dive deep into the latest gridiron buzz. In this episode, they dissect the game-changing Jared Goff contract extension and provide expert analysis on the competitive landscape of the AFC North, led by two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. Tune in for insightful commentary, insider perspectives, and all things NFL. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your weekly football fix! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the inaugural episode of First Read, a film and analytics podcast featuring myself and Joe Marino. This podcast is powered by FantasyPoint Data. If you are an audio-only partaker, we want you to get the best experience possible. This podcast does have a video element, so make sure you head over to the Fantasy Points YouTube page and click subscribe and turn notifications on. When it comes to the game we all love, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read. Joseph, how are you, sir? Brett, my dude, my friend, we've been talking about this for a couple of months. And finally, we push record and we're here to talk football.

I'm excited, man. This podcast captures two things that I'm very passionate about. Of course, football, but through the lens of film and through the lens of analytics, putting it all together, having fun with a, you know, like one of my best friends in the world. This is amazing. Glad to be here. Thanks for having me, of course. Yeah, so you said it's been in the works for a couple months. I would argue it's been on the works longer than that because we did kind of bat

the idea around the last off season as well. And then we've always had this desire to do something together that was football related, right? So I feel like this has been like 10 years in the making, but here we finally are hitting the record button where I'm not a guest on your pod. You're not a guest on my pod. This is our thing together. I couldn't be more excited about that. So why don't we tell people kind of how we know each other?

It's been a while, Joe. Well, one day I get a Twitter DM from at BG Whitefield who says, Hey, man, I think we're both in the Charlotte area and I think you like Blue Moon. Want to get together for a drink. And we did, except for we didn't actually have a Blue Moon. We went and had, I think, just regular lunch. formed a relationship very quickly. Like we hit it off quick and realized that we have a lot of parallels in our life,

not just like in our football interests, but in our own personal stories and connected very, very quickly. And then you did this really cool thing where you moved away. Like I thought I had like a bro. You know what I mean? I thought I had a guy. I thought I had a friend. And then you're like, no, dude, I'm going back to Michigan.

But you've been amazing at continuing to invest in our relationship through moving away. and look at us now. We're doing a podcast together. Yeah, it's what I tell people the story of like, not only did we live in both of in the Charlotte area, Joe, we were like within a mile. Yeah, right down the street, which is even crazier.

Like, you know, the neighborhood I was living in at the time was across the street from your neighborhood, which is wild. So, yeah, good, long story short, our wives even hit it off. I know, you know, Kristen loves your wife and yada, yada, yada. So here we are. Ten years later, kind of still developing. this relationship and now we get to work together.

So anyways, moving forward, Joe, this podcast is obviously NFL-centric. It's in the title, film and analytics, right? I mean, we're going to be hitting X's and O's, anything you can dream of from a football standpoint, the news, you know, roster construction details. And we're going to be, what, weekly in the off-season, bi-weekly, in season. So there's a lot coming your way, guys. Yeah, dude. Excited to see how it evolves.

Obviously, we have ideas. but I think as we develop our chemistry together doing podcasts, we've certainly done podcasts together, but like making this our own thing, it's going to evolve, it's going to be fun. And I think we both see the game similarly in some ways. And, you know, we've certainly had our own debates as well. So we get to do that instead of like having hour long phone conversations all the time,

we're going to bring those right to the people here on the first read podcast. I love it. I love it. All right. Well, we have, we wanted to kind of focus. the first pod on some of the biggest news in the NFL this week. And the first segment we're going to do is on Jared Gough, who actually minutes before we hit the record button here,

it became official. We got news early in the week. He was signing a four-year deal. But it became official today, actually, that he signed a, what actually, it looks like, Joe, it's actually a five-year contract. They're tearing up the old deal. So it's basically a five-year deal worth $236 million.

So they kind of change that that final year in his contract around a little bit. By my math, Joe, it looks like the biggest cap hit in that five-year Spain is going to be $55 million. So while I think at first when it was reported, it was a little sticker shocky, 55 million at the max at the pinnacle is not that bad. Everything else is 50 or less, actually. So initial thoughts on that. Well, I think initially it's a good reminder that once again, wait. for the contract details to come out, right? Like when contracts are announced, it is all agent driven, right?

They want to put it out there that their guy got all the money in the world. And then the reality is the structure of the deal tells a completely different story. So always remember that. I'll probably say that a lot on this podcast. I love the idea that SpotRack has where they put together the quarterback average salary versus league salary cap at signing and like talked about, okay, what was their contract as a percentage of cap? Because I think you can look at this deal and maybe have some sticker shock. But I think in the reality, it's not about the AAV because it's not it's not apples to

apples. You can't compare that Josh Allen signed for $43 million a year going into the 2021 season. That's not the same as this. This is a deal where Jared Goff signs for 20.7% of the average salary versus league salary cap at signing, which is 10th among quarterback contracts right now. And the reality is he is the next good quarterback to get a deal. So there's going to be, there's going to be differences in this deal compared to the ones that have come through and throughout the years, maybe for players that you think are better than Jared Gough. So I guess I got all of that out of the way to say that we can talk about the dynamics of this contract, but like the Lions decision to continue with Jared Goff or whatever it costs,

because your value is what somebody's willing to pay you. That's where I think this makes a lot of sense. I am on board with the idea of the Detroit Lions continuing to invest in playing with Jared golf as a starting quarterback, especially because you feel like ever since he's got there, some of the narratives have been about, well, this is not a long-term solution. they got to draft the quarterback high, Hendon Hooker. It's been like, well, let's let him play. And he's done nothing but meet moments and lead this team, this Detroit team, to places,

let's be honest, that it really hasn't ever gone. So I have more to say about the Lions and Jared Goff and his status in the league and all of that. But I do support their decision to continue rolling with him as a franchise quarterback. Absolutely. And we're going to get deeper into that too. But first, we've got to take a quick break. Whether it's a pair of running shoes or a new car, you check how well something performs before you buy it. Why should investing be any different?

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Their values change, and past performance may not be reached. repeated. Yeah, the golf stuff for me, you know, and I get like a really close look at it, right? Because I live here, you know, in Detroit. The culture that has been developed with him at the helm, these guys, they play their hearts out for Jared Gough. This is such an underrated element of QB play, right? Because QBs are inevitably the face of the franchise. They are the leaders in the locker room. And this team, they didn't want anyone else but Jared Gough. And there's value to that where it's like, well, everything we've built. You know, Campbell gets a lot of credit. Brad Holmes obviously gets a ton of credit, too. But Jared Goff's a big part of what this team has done so far. And you can't, it's easy to think you can get better at quarterback. But the reality is that is really, really hard to do. It's way easier to get worse that quarterback. And that's without the culture stuff. You had the culture stuff in the mix. Dude, there's, what were their options other than Jared Kauf? Like, they didn't have any. Like, just be real. There's no other options. So, you know, and I think there's, I think there's, a lot to be discussed too about like maybe Jared Goff's not as bad as some of like maybe the sticker shock that came on Monday and Tuesday wasn't warranted compared to what we see on the field.

And we can get into that too, but I love this continued discussion about the lines and their development. So what you're saying is that Jared Goff's teammates show up for his birthday party, right? That's an important layer to this. Yeah, are you the guy, right? Are you the guy that the team rallies behind? And I think you can look at Detroit as a situation where anybody can look at it and feel like there is culture, there is buy-in. These guys love playing for each other.

They love playing for Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell. And of course, your quarterback's your most influential leader. And he aligns perfectly with the vision and the direction of what this football team wants to be. Can I rave a little bit about Jared Gough? Because I'm just really impressed with so many things, not only that he was looked at as kind of problem in Los Angeles and that relationship with Sean McVeigh got sour. Of course, they go to the Super Bowl and then they lose to the Patriots and all anyone can talk about coming out of that game as well, you know, Sean McVeigh told Jared Gough what to do. And then Bill Belichick showed his cards

laid and they took away their communication and Sean McVeigh made Jared Gough, right? Like that was the conversation. Well, what are the last two years in Detroit tell us about who Jared Gough is? And that offense was awesome. last year. Awesome. Top five in scoring, top five in yards per rush, top five in yards per pass. Like in any way that you want to measure offense, Detroit was awesome. And this is going to feel like I'm going to extend criticism and I really don't mean it to be that way. But if you look at that team on paper going into the season, you had Amin-Ross St. Brown, who's awesome, right? He's stud player. And then you had like a rookie tight end and Sam LaPorteur that wasn't a first round pick.

You had David Montgomery at running back who was like not brought back in Chicago. Jamir Gibbs a rookie. You kind of thought, all right, can some of these interior offensive linemen grow? Can we stay healthy on the offensive line? What else do we have at receiver? This was the top five offense in the league with that as what you're looking at going into the season. I think that Ben Johnson and Jared Goff have elevated these players that are around them.

I'm not going to sit here and say that I think that Jared Goff is a bona fide truck as a, you know, the trucks and trailers. Like, I'm not going to say he's, he's absolutely a truck. Yeah, yeah. You know what I mean? Like, I'll stop short of that. But I think you can look at this situation and feel like he's been every bit as responsible for where this team is going as any one thing that you want to single out about the Detroit Lions. Yeah, let me throw some data in the mix, too, to back up your point. Jared Goff via the fantasy points data suite, you can, you know, go to data, dot,

Points.com and check out all this data for yourself with a simple subscription. Jared Gaw, fifth and adjusted completion percentage last year. Over the last two years, he ranks third, 77.6% last year. Fourth, an accurate ball rate. And that accurate ball rate isn't, that's not catchable targets. That's the highest bucket of accuracy that we chart here at Fantasy Points data. That's like ball was on the money, maximize the result of the play, whether he beat coverage or maximize that yak.

Fourth and accurate ball rate. that's top five and two primo statistics right now top 10 in hero throw rate meaning those super difficult you know between defenders tight window throws he's ranking top 10 in that also top 10 and turnover really throw rate so he doesn't turn the ball over a lot makes all the throws you want he's super accurate with it and then here's my favorite stat clean pocket passing clean pocket passing is by far the stickiest metric we have for quarterback play do you want to project QB play in the future, look at clean pocket passing. Jared Goff had the highest pass rating from a clean pocket last year. He was number two the year before that. Four out of the last six

years, he's been a starter. So going back to his time at LA, he has ranked top seven in EPA per dropback, which EPA is more of a team stat. A point being like, this dude has been at the helm of some of the most effective passing games for the last, you know, almost decade. It's ridiculous. And the amount of shade, I feel like he takes comparatively is kind of crazy. I get he had a couple bad years. His last year in L.A., first year in Detroit, weren't great. But other than that, his career has been pretty awesome. He's more accomplished than guys like Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow from a playoff win standpoint.

He actually has more combined playoff wins than Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson. Who is the other one? Oh, and Dak Prescott. Dag Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert. Jergoff has more playoff wins combined than those three guys. I mean, I don't know what else the guy has to do to prove his worth. It feels like this contract was well deserved to me. People forget this was the number one pick in the draft.

Right, right. Like we're not talking about a random quarterback that's been put in unique situations and elevated by everything around them. This is a number one overall pick. And obviously things were so bad in 2016, that first year in a, yeah, I was Los Angeles with Jeff Fisher and all of that. And I think it's hard maybe even for it being that long ago for some people to put that out of their minds. And then, okay, well, Sean McVeigh comes and everything's better.

But then things kind of regress a little bit towards the end. And we didn't love him the first year in Detroit. But the good has far outweighed the bad with Jared Gough. And I don't think you can tell the story of why the Detroit Lions were 12 and 5 and in the NFC championship in division winners without realizing that. their quarterback had a heck of a lot to do with it. Agreed. Before we transition to our next topic, I do want to hit a couple more points, broader points with golf, comparative to the other QBs. Where, like, if you had to draft out the QBs, Joe and I might be putting you on the spot

a little bit, where would you think golf comes off the board? Well, I think it's probably easier for me to identify, like, which quarterbacks I would definitely pick over Jared Gough. Yeah, do that. So I will do that for you. I would definitely take Josh Allen. Yep. Are we talking about for one season? Like a blend. Let's say next three years.

I could golf 20. He's still a young man, but he's not Trevor Lawrence. Well, I said that to say, like, would I rather have Aaron Rogers, right? Yeah, yeah. So no. I, okay, so Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, maybe Lamar Jackson. I take CJ Stroud. Ooh. Yeah. I'm into CJ Stroud. Me too, but I'll hit the Stroud point in a sec.

Mahomes Herbert. Oh, okay, Herbert. Yeah, dude, I love Herbert. Okay. I love Herbert. Nobody in the N of C. East, I don't think. No, Jalen Hertz? No, no, no.

He would be the one guy I'd consider there, but I think you're probably right. I think I'd probably go golf. I don't, I mean, I really liked what I saw from Jordan Love, but I'd like to see a bigger sample size before I say that for sure. Ten games of good play. Yeah. I don't know about Kirk at his age coming off of Achilles. Purdy?

No. Trevor Lawrence? Not for me. No. No. No. Stafford, that's interesting. But like he's 39 with all the injuries in the world. I don't think he's quite 39, right? 36, maybe, 35?

I don't know. I feel like he's been 35 for five years. Right. Old with a messed up back and all kinds of issues. Not Kyler. Not Kyler for me. I don't know. So like seventh? Yeah. Like spitballing seventh? Seventh was my number. I think we have a couple. Like I wouldn't have Herbert or Stroud. I don't think in there. Stroud's close. But what's funny, my comp for Stroud coming out was Jared Gough. So that's really ironic, actually. I like that a lot.

What's your problem with Herbert? What's the deal there? I think he's a good killer. Oh. He's the new Matthew Stafford. Trevor Lawrence is following in those footsteps too. He just, for as talented as he is, the production on the field just not there. And I know he's had some wonky, you know, Staley was not a great head coach, but he still had decent play callers, decent weapons around him, good offensive line, pretty good defense.

There was really no excuse for the way he played. his tendencies as a passer invites chaos into his life or just check he turns into a checkdown merchant. There's like no there's no in between for him. It's really strange. I'm not I'm not really sure what it is. Now he's still young. He could definitely develop. He has all the raw. Like from a tools standpoint, I would take him over at golf and a heartbeat. But from actually playing the quarterback position, I think golf is better right now than Justin Herbert is. So you you would swap out Stroud and Herbert and then you would add who to get yourself back to seven? So Stroud, so Stroud, I'm not 100% on.

That one's tough for me because Stroud is like a younger Jared Garland. Here's a Stroud take for you. I think he got away. Like he was awesome last year for sure. That dude got away with some crap too. And I don't think like, I think in the NFL and your young quarterback, you spend a lot of time trying to figure out, figure out what you can and cannot get away with.

And I worry that Stroud was on the, on the good but wrong side of that a little bit too much. And I think he's going to have to evolve a little bit. but the big moments were too frequent for me to ignore it. Yeah, Stroud. So in a lot of our advanced data over at the Finacy Point Data Suite, like we, he didn't actually rank that high in like accurate ball rate, catchable ball rate, adjusting.

Like he struggled in a lot of those. The one thing I will say is he was like third, no, fourth and, sorry, fifth in pass rating from a clean pocket. So I've already touted that as the stat for, you know, predicting future success. So I do, I do. So I'll keep Stroud ahead of golf because of the age. And but I would probably swap Herbert for this one's going to, this one's going to blow your mind.

Kyler Murray. Oh, are you can, you cannot say everything that you just said about inviting chaos. Kyler Murray's literally a matador the way that he plays the football. Let's get everybody as close as possible to me. And then I'm going to spin out or I'm going to try to throw the ball. Like I am I am all the way out on Kyler Murray. I am Brent Whitefield. We're 20 minutes into. our first episode and I'm thinking about leaving with a comment like that.

Oh, I want to tell you why Kyler Murray, but first we've got to take a quick break. So Kyler, I mean, Joe, correct me if I'm wrong, but has Kyler had a fair shake so far? He's had a boob for an offensive coach and Cliff Clingsbury. He has had absolutely no weapons. He had a washed DeAndre Hopkins, injured Hollywood Brown and really bad offensive line play. I think when you see the, like if we like Herbert, we have to like Kyler because the raw tools with Kyler are just as good, if not better.

What? The legs, so he's going to be a better runner, going to be able to give you a high floor because of the running ability. The arm is just as good as Herbert, is it not? Yeah, I think arm talent is comparable. You don't see the limitations with Kyler Murray and how he plays and like what he can't see and like doesn't, you think that Kyler Murray does at any level of consistency, does a smart right thing with the football?

He is the archetype of quarterback that I hate. He's the reason I had Caleb Williams is my QB2 and not QB1. He's the reason I hated Justin Fields coming out. Yeah. No, you're right. Like you, yes. All of those things about Kyler drive me nuts. I just think there's so much talent in his body.

I just, I just want him to see a good situation. I love that they drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. Because it's like, finally he's going to have a dog to throw the ball to. Like Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins weren't, weren't like terrible players. Yeah, Kirk.

Kirk really didn't break out though until he. he was in. You had to get away from Kyler to unlock his potential. Okay. You think that Kyler is not going to work with a, with a route runner on the slot like, like Kirk? Yeah, he, so Kyler had like 10 games of healthy D.Hop, by the way. D.Hop was basically a mess every, every game after that. So yeah, I mean, are you excited with Marvin Harrison Jr. like, but what else does that team have? Trey McBride? The rest of those receivers are total question marks.

The thing about Arizona is they can run the ball. That's what I like about them. Yeah, their run game is disgusting. A lot of that's Kyler Murray, though, Joe. Like, he elevates the floor of that run game quite a bit. Yeah, I mean, you're probably talking me off the ledge here with Kyler. I've always been a fan of his. You know that.

Like I called him as the first overall pick, what? In January the year he was coming out when everyone thought he was still playing baseball. So I just think. Clinging to your priors, I see. Yeah, clinging to my priors, there's so much talent, though. I just, I want somebody to be able to get it out. You could say the same thing about Herbert, though. So I probably unfairly crushed Herbert and then propped up Kyler for all the same things.

All right. So we're thinking around seven. So I think he's a top, a top 25% of the league quarterback. Yeah. Yeah. And then when it's your time to get paid, you just, that's what happens. You get paid. Last thing real quick, fantasy implications.

I think this not much to say here other than what. Amonra still trending up. Leporta still great. Gibbs still great. I don't like, I love that the stability. you know, from a fantasy standpoint, the disability you're going to get with golf now under contract, I'm under contract.

Everyone still should be good, should be a great offense. What would take, what I think takes this to the moon is if they get another receiver somehow. Like, I just kind of wonder, like, is it going to be, is it going to, is James going to be that guy? Do you not, are you not a JMO guy? Yeah, no, I love him. I love him so much.

Like, I had a very high grade on him, but I, what have I seen from him to this point in the NFL that makes me feel confident going, into his third season that he's going to be that dude. Yeah, no, that's completely fair. I was talking about this with Christopher Weck, our projections guy, because he just finished the season long projections, and he was having a really tough time with where to put JMO on that.

Because it's like we lost a lot of targets with Josh Reynolds, obviously, so like those have to go somewhere, probably not going to go to DPJ because I don't think he's there. Is JMO really going to take that big of a leap, though, where his target share is getting up into the 20%? I'm not sure he's ready for that, but you have to like the way he finished a year though, Joe. Like, he looked, you know, he earned golf's trust. The thing that stood out to me is they were getting him involved in the short part of the field. Like, and I'm not talking screens and drags. I'm

talking like, hey, we're going to trust you on a timing pattern, like a slant or a hitch or a comeback. And he was, he was effective on those routes. So I think him earning golf's trust on those more precise routes that he needs to run, not just the vertical linear stuff, I think is big for his development. I mean, I think, I personally believe he will step into that wide receiver two role pretty good this year. But I get why people would be skeptical of that for sure. Yeah, I just want to see some proof of concept in a bigger sample size. I recognize the talent. He was like my wide receiver won by a ton. I loved him, big playability. And I thought he was a lot more than just a guy that ran fast down the field and caught the football. I thought there was a lot to his game. Injuries,

obviously gets in the way of that. And you trying to develop chemistry and time on task and find your role in an offense. I think that's hard to do when you face the injuries and the issues that he had in this first couple of seasons. But if he can be that dude, I mean, Lions to the Moon. Yeah, agreed. All right. So one of the things we're going to be doing on this, the show for the next, what, eight weeks, Joe, is we're going division by division, doing some previews. Today, we're starting that with the AFC North. Did you want to take an alphabetical approach here or like standings approach? Like, what order do you want to go in, Joe? It does not make a difference to me. The order of this division is so interesting. Like the Bengals were last place, but nine and eight

last year. You know, Cleveland was the number two team. Steelers were a wildcard team at third. Of course, the Ravens won the division is the one seat in the AFC. So I think this is pretty clearly like the best division in football going into the season. Oh, you were surprised by that. I feel, feel pretty good about that being a true take. But I'm down for whatever order you'd like to go, sir. Well, let's let's start with it. Let's just quickly do a overview of the position groups and kind of see where each team lands. We don't have to go into like crazy detail here, but like, let's start with quarterback.

How would you rank these four quarterback or these four quarterback situations, I should say? So getting my personality and takes out there, I think the world of Joe Burrow, I think he's so good. Accuracy, decision making, big moments, clutch. I think he's got everything. The unfortunate realities, he's had injuries, like literally every single season of his career. And that's the X factor.

If you give me a healthy Joe Burrow, man, I'm taking that as a clear best quarterback in this division. Then I get to Lamar Jackson, who I think the volume of passing is not there, right? Like, you're not going to look at his passing numbers and be blown away, but how he can impact football games, the playmaking ability that he has in a multitude of ways and how he affects spacing is so big. And then it's like, dude, what is what is, what is he? You know what I mean? Like I think he was better in 2023 compared to 22, but we've not seen any sustained sample size from him in four years. And then miss me completely with Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh. I think Russell Wilson is a fundamentally flawed quarterback. Like he just doesn't run the offense at all. It's hold the ball and chuck it or hold the ball and dump it down to a running back.

I mean, I could see why Sean Payton was like, get this dude out of here. We'll eat all this dead cap space. he's not running my offense. And I think Seattle was keenly aware of every deficiency that Russell Wilson had and they figured it out around him. And that team was always at their best Seattle when they were running the ball. I don't trust him at all. If I'm Pittsburgh, I'm playing Justin Fields all day long. But I think they're going to start Russ. So I probably have a Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson. I don't know. You could flip a coin on Cleveland and Pittsburgh. So my take, I agree Cincinnati, Baltimore, Burrow and then Lamar, both awesome, by the way. probably both top five guys in the league for me,

which probably is why this division is so tough, right? Because you have two teams at the top with elite quarterbacks. And then here's my issue. As bad as Russ was the last two years, I don't think Watson was any better. The one saving grace for Watson is that I, you nailed it when you said Russ is fundamentally flawed. I think Watson has some, some rust and maybe some,

you know, mechanical issues he developed from not playing that he can probably get back. at some point. Like, I'm not ruling that out where I think Russ is just cooked. He's a one thing you didn't mention in your Russ, but is he's also just a super weird guy. Like, he is not culture friendly. I don't know. But yeah, you're right. Like Peyton wanted him out as soon as he could get him out, right?

So like. No matter the consequence. Right. Literally. I mean, they ate. That was the biggest dead cap hit in NFL history to get rid of him. So that, that alone speaks volumes. his so when he had success in Seattle it was that inside zone read option heavy scheme where

either he was reading a backside defender to make that run game they're going to plus one in the run game on almost every down and then Russ would play long ball occasionally if he was under center they'd boot him out and make him effective with the legs the problem is the legs are gone Joe he can't do the inside zone read like they can run read option but it's not as effective because the Russ isn't the threat he used to be to run the ball So I'm not really sure how you, like, when you look at Pittsburgh's offensive makeup, how does he make that work with Pat Frymerth and Darnel Washington? Like, Pickens is their only receiver right now, really.

Well, they did draft Roman Wilson, which is one of my guys. But Russ doesn't throw to slot receivers. Like, he's not, he doesn't, he literally ignores the middle of the field. So I don't, I have no idea how this gets done. Yolo balls to Pickens and dump it down to Jalen Warren. Russ led the NFL in both deep ball rate and check down rate. Right. Because that's all he does.

He chucks it deep, throws the yolo ball to Cortland Sutton, or dump it down to one of the backs. That's what he does. Like, that's not, he doesn't play the position, doesn't run the offense. Does not run the offense. But Watson's tape was so bad. It's tough. But yeah, I guess I'll rank Watson ahead of Ross right now, but that's, that's rough.

It's grim. All right, running backs. I'll go first. I think Baltimore having Derek Henry just makes them probably number one. I also liked what I saw from Keaton Mitchell last year. I know he's coming off to ACL. That's not a bad situation. Pittsburgh, Nagee Harris, Jalen Warren, my number two.

Now, all this would be moot if Nick Chubb was healthy and I knew he was healthy. Right. I think Cleveland would be the top of Pittsburgh having the one two punch in Nagee and Jalen Warren. Nagee looked really, really good down the stretch last year. You could tell he was feeling healthy. His mistackle force was up. Again, in the Phamencystay, so you can find that stuff. He still finished like top 10 of missed tackles force per touch.

His yards after contact per carry got way back up into like 2.8 range where to start the year, it was like 2.1. The one two punch with him and Warren, Warren's more of a bursty acceleration type player. I like, I like that one two punch. In Cleveland, I put third because, you know, I do like Jerome Ford to a certain extent. I think he's functional outside zone scheme that they run. Chubb could come back healthy. They did sign Dante Foreman as well, right?

So there's some options there. Cincinnati last. They just don't really have anything. You know, I like Zach Moss. Is he an every down player? I'm not sure. Chase Brown just hasn't done enough for me yet. Unproven.

Yeah, it's a lot of interesting dynamics of these running backs. I do think that, of course, a healthy Nick Chubb makes this conversation different, but Derek Henry going to Baltimore. And I think them leaning into that as a strength of their operation. Baltimore's been really good, but it's not because their volume passing stats are good. It's because they can run the ball. And what's fascinating about that is who's been their running backs? It's not really, it's Gus Edwards and Justice Hill and J.K. Dobbins for like one good season.

They get a guy like this and Derek Henry that I think can really elevate what's already been an amazing rushing offense. Now, obviously, the offensive line has to come together. They're replacing three starters and with a lot of young players that haven't really shown us anything. So that needs to happen. But I think Derek Henry is that guy. And then from there, I think the tandem in Pittsburgh of Najee Harris and Jalen Warren, they really found it last year down the stretch. Pittsburgh did run in the football.

They didn't go on that run because of amazing quarterback play. They were super good at running the football. And I thought Najee Harris played his best football down the stretch. And I really do like Jalen Warren as a complimentary piece. He catches the ball well for them as well. So I think that tandem is number two. Then I probably go with the collective group in Cleveland. Jerome Ford, Deontah Foreman.

They also have Naheem Hines. They've got a lot of options there. I think the sum of that excites me a little bit more than Cincinnati, who, you know, Zach Moss had a nice little stretch there at the start of the year with the Colts before Jonathan Taylor was healthy, but he tapered off a ton, like he wasn't good in Buffalo. And then Chase Brown is like, caught the ball a little bit last year, but we haven't seen him do much in the NFL. And I think for Cincinnati, like the run game to me is such an X factor for them. It's not been productive at all ever under Zach Taylor.

And I think for them to like be the team that they want to be, then being more two-dimensional on offense with their run game would be huge. And I don't think that they've done anything this offseason to help them run the football better. And I'm not even high on Joe Mixin. But like Zach Moss doesn't move the needle for me. Ain't nothing really in the way of offensive linemen other than Trent Brown. Well, I'm Arias Mims. Oh, yeah, yeah.

As an eight game starter in college, when's he going to be ready? Yeah, he's, I don't think he's, playing this year unless he has to. Right. Trent Brown, they sign this like one year, four million bucks to keep the seat warm. They move on from Jonah Williams. Yeah, that's a tough situation. That run game could really struggle. What do you mean? It has struggle. I'm waiting for it to have a pulse. True. I think from a famous, I'm looking at it from a fantasy lens. They had Mixen who, even though they were on the struggle bus, he got all of the touches. So he's like, he's still good for fantasy. Yes. I don't think Zach Moss is that kind of guy. Do you know? No.

No, I think it's going to be more of a shared situation. I think Chase Brown's going to be a bigger piece of this pie than maybe we expect. And that was a Trayvion Williams and Chris Evans. Those are replacement level players behind them. There are special teams guys. That's why they're on the roster. Correct. Yeah, when they drafted Chase Brown, I actually like the landing spot.

Cincinnati runs outside zone as much as literally any team in the league. Brown has that just really great linear explosiveness. Pretty good vision. He ran a lot of outside zone at Illinois. So I did like the compliment there. I just, we didn't really see enough of it last year to know if he's anything. So, but I do agree that this, this will be more, more complimentary, which for fantasy, if their efficiency still sucks and it's a split backfield, who avoid those guys, avoid those guys.

Wide receivers, Joe, to me, this was easy to sort out. I don't know. Maybe, maybe we have some debate, but Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, pit in that order. Are you different than that? You said Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland. Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pitt. Sorry. Well, I think Pittsburgh's definitely last. We are not talking enough about this. I think there's some assumption that they're going to get another receiver.

Right. But we're really going to go to war with George Pickens, Van Jefferson, and Roman Wilson as our top three receivers. Like, come on, man, we can't do that. And maybe I feel some sort of way, because I am a Bills fan. And all anybody wants to talk about is the Bills Receiver Corps. Like, what's going on here with Pittsburgh? What is this? To me, that's, when you look at it, I think that could be a fatal flaw for this operation this year. Yeah, when why did they, they shipped out Deontay Johnson for a bag of balls too. For Dante Jackson. For, yeah, Dante, dude. So Joe, slight teaser here, by the way, we've been working on a separation tool for the last two years to put in the data suite. We're getting close to releasing that. It's going to be released probably mid to late July when we're, we've done some preliminary studies on the data so far, Chris and I. And Deontay Johnson is still a dude.

That guy absolutely. separates very good route runner i get he's not the most overly dynamic player in the world i just don't know why like you had a dynamic player in pick and dante seems like a perfect compliment right so like why why split those two up they didn't make any sense to me so um especially when you have a quarterback who refuses to throw the middle of the field and that's where dante wins is on the outside of the field so it's like i don't i don't get i don't get the decision-making process there for uh for shipping out dante for a bag of balls but so you're your ranking here was Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Where are you on this Baltimore group of Zayflowers, Rashad Bateman, who they gave like a decent two-year contract to, despite really not having sustained production. A lot of that's injury related, but that's concerning. And then Nelson Aguilar is probably the three there. Yep, the three. Potentially, you know, you could see a Tess Walker getting some playing time,

Deonti Hardy getting on the field. You know, they'll mix it up here and there, but Aguilar's trajectory as a kind of a gadget player in Philly to then being like a deep ball only add on late in the off season to now being a slot guy is very strange. But yeah, I don't know. I mean, I like Zay Flowers. The way they used him last year was arguably criminal. I think he had the lowest ADOT ever for a player with his target share. I mean, it was crazy. Adot is average.

depth of target for those wondering. Rashad Bateman, he flashes on tape when he's on the field. He's just not on the field ever. So I'm a little lower on this group, I think, than maybe some are. You got to consider Andrews, obviously, and Isaiah Leichel is part of the wide receiver unit probably because they are such good pass catchers. But man, I'm just, I really wish they would have gone and got a wide receiver this offseason.

Not the need to be a true one, but a dude that can play and give you a lot of production. It's such an interesting dynamic based on. the structure of their offense. Like they went and gave an irresponsible contract to O'Dell Beckham Jr. last year. And they're just not a volume passing team. So like having your investments aligned with stylistically who you are as a team,

like I kind of get it, but also at the same time, I feel like I want a little bit more here. Where are you at with, I know this is a big shift with, I want to get to Cleveland here. Elijah Moore, contract year. I mean, difficult circumstances

throughout his entire career to this point in terms of quarterback. play oh man it had like it hasn't been pretty i thought he popped as a rookie i thought the tape was really good and you just haven't seen that same level of separation and explosiveness and they've moved them all over the place he's got an opportunity in the slot opportunities as a z receiver the guy who's in motion all the time it just has not worked at a high level for whatever reason the talent's in there somewhere though he he's a good route runner so they kind of have two guys like that and him and judy where it's like i think the skill set and the production just

don't match. Like Judy is another guy, by the way, who pops in the separation data. It just is, for whatever reason. I mean, obviously, we think we know why it hasn't worked with Judy, right, playing with Russell Wilson. But I don't know. I'm a little out on Elijah more than I am Jerry Judy.

That's for sure. Yeah. Big year for him, I think. I contract year for him, obviously. Yeah. Cooper, though, is so good. I think that's why I put this team to. Yeah.

Cooper is better than anything Baltimore has, which just automatically elevated them. I think Cooper's the third best. Ooh, maybe he's the second best receiver in this division. Chase is one. And then it's Cooper or Higgins. I think Higgins is one of the most underrated players in the league. So you would think he's two and then Cooper?

I think I would call him too. It's tough because Cooper is such a good separator, such a good route runner. He's just so rely. When he's healthy, he is so reliable. Like you know what you're getting with him. Man, that is a really tough call. I think I'd call Cooper three, though,

especially at his age. I, just in general, though, Joe. I know you appreciate Roger construction conversations. I love the way Cleveland has attacked the wide receiver position and it hasn't yielded the best results so far, so I think people might laugh at that. But every

year, they're drafting a dude relatively high. They went and traded for Amari. You can go back. Anthony Schwartz, terrible draftic, but they threw a dart at it. David Bell, again, terrible traffic, but they threw a dart at it. Jammari Thrash this year. Cedric Tillman last year they've traded now for Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and Jerry Judy.

Like they realize this is an important position. They just haven't necessarily made the best choice. So you like, okay, you like their approach, but somehow their top three receivers are all guys they traded for. Yeah, but that's part of the approach. That's part of the approach. We are going to keep trying. Yes, exactly.

We're going to keep trying. I think so in 2024, receiver is absolutely a premium position. You see it in the NFL. There was six drafted in the first round, another handful drafted immediately into the second round. like the NFL is telling us this this position matters a ton and so when you don't have the dudes you want just keep trying like in the maybe their scouting process isn't great but the idea of hey let's accumulate talent at wide receiver let's make sure our quarterbacks have a lot to work with here I like I like that as a whole and I wish more teams to do that we're going to step aside for a second more after this all right so where we go we didn't hit Cincinnati so we could we could hit Cincinnati. Oh, fascinating situation. Of course, Higgins and Chase, they speak for themselves. I also, side note, no idea why we are having a hard time getting an extension done with T. Higgins.

Like the money is there in Cincinnati right now, next year and in future years. Like, this should be a non-issue. But Cincinnati always has to be tough with their business dealings with their players, which frustrates me a lot. Dude, yes. The owner, it's a, it's a cash flow thing. Like, he does not like, like, like to sign a player, to an extension like that, you have to have the money ready for the guaranteed stuff, has to go into escrow, signing bonus gets cut that day, yada, yada, yada. There's issues with it. It's the opposite approach with the line just did. The lines just cashed, what, 400 or 200 million in guaranteed money this offseason?

Cincinnati is taking the opposite approach. They don't want the, you know, the cash. That's an underrated part of roster construction, by the way, Joe, is like a lot of times we look at just raw cap space as like, oh, this is how much money the team has to work with that's not always true. The owner could be like, no, you've got, I'm willing to write $20 million worth of checks right now. That's it.

That really limits how you can use that cap space, right? Because, like, a lot of people don't talk about this. I know Brad Spielberg has done a really good job trying to explain this to the public, but we're just not getting it yet. We need more education on roster management from a financial standpoint. But it should be done yesterday, dude. Like T. Higgins is a baller. So. But that third guy for Cincinnati is where it gets kind of fascinating, right?

Tyler Boyd's gone. We'll see if Charlie Jones is going to be their slot. I think Germain Burton's got an unbelievable talent. Does it kind of all come together for them? Andre Yusevis as a draft pick, Trenton Irwin, who's like, was a flash in the pan. But at his age, at 28 years old, like, I expect him to be a thing is kind of crazy. They got to figure out who that third guy is going to be an 11 personnel. And maybe some of that's going to be Gaseki, flexed or something. I'm not sure, but for a team that's been Chase Higgins, Boyd, well,

Boyd's no longer here. Yeah, I want to do you think they consider putting Jermaine Burton in the slot a little bit? I hope so. I think from a talent perspective, he's very clearly the third best guy. Burton is awesome, man. He had round one tape for me. He just obviously off field dropped them a little bit, but yeah, I think he's like, obviously he could be your

T. Higgins replacement if they don't get a deal done. But if they do get a deal done, just move the guy of a slot, man. Let's do it. But I also like Charlie Jones. He was a guy I was high on last year. I think I had a day two grade on him. They took him early in the fourth. So they seem fine. Yoshavos, I think it's how you pronounce his name.

Andreiosha. Yeah, I think he's... We're going to learn that I'm not the best with pronunciation on some of these names. So my deepest apologies. Sometimes when we're chatting on the phone, I was like, how did you just say that name? We'll have some good moments as we'll continue recording these podcasts.

Yeah. But ultimately, this group, I think, is really solid. They're just looking for who is the immediate three right now, you know, but tight ends. We hit on it with Baltimore. That kind of factors in the wide receivers. They're obviously the best group. It's kind of a, I don't know, easy one, two, three, four for me at tight end, too. Baltimore, I guess you would say Cleveland, but like I really like the combination in Pittsburgh of Friermouth and Washington.

Like, I think that combination might be better than in Joku and Aiken's as your top two in Cleveland. I think very clearly fourth is Cincinnati. Yep, fourth Cincinnati. Maddie. I have Pittsburgh ahead of just in Joe. I don't think Aikins is great. So I think in Joe just standalone there. He's more of a pass catcher. Not going to do a lot in the run game for you. So I love the combo of Fryermuth in Washington. Yeah, I mean, Fryermouth, quarterback play kind of took away from him taking another step last year. But go back two years ago, the tape is outstanding, very multifaceted player. And then Darnell, Washington, what he brings is a blocker to win the

edge in the run game. I thought that was so important for how they were able to develop the run scheme. And I think there's more to unlock with his receiving talent as well. That tandem is unbelievable. It's not quite Andrews and likely. But I really, really do like that. Then you get to David and Joku, who's a really good starter. But, you know, Jordan Aiken's, I don't know, he had a moment with Watson and Houston and he kind of bring him to Cleveland and you think maybe it's going to recreate itself. It really hasn't. And then Cincinnati's just got a bunch of backups as their starters. I will say this, like, based on the way that the, they gave Drew Sample three years, $10 million. He's got a $4.9 million cap hit this year. That tells us he's their starter. I think Gaseki's

more of a specialist type player. Like, here's the deal with Gaseki. It doesn't do a lick for you blocking. He's not going to play any special teams. Very, very limited route runner. But if you can get him going on the vertical plane, he's got size and ball skills and he can help you in those moments. And I think with Joe Burrow is like accurate quarterback, there's some potential there. but he's such a limited player otherwise. It's hard for me to get excited about him. But I will say that. I thought Tanner Hudson had some nice flashes down the stretch last year.

So like I think that sample in Hudson should definitely out snap Gaseki. Agreed. Were you at an Eric all? As, yeah, it was a fourth round pick. Yeah, probably not this year, right? Yeah, and probably he's got an injury or something, I think, as well. So yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, I think that makes it easy for them to think about him in 2024, excuse me, 2025 as one of your, you know, one of your guys that gets a jersey on game day. Yeah, I agree. I think maybe they signed Gisicki. Now that I, like, just processing this out loud, it seems like maybe he is going to play some of that Tyler Boyd role because Sample got the starter money. Hudson did flash as that the past catching option there. So maybe Giseki is just a 12 personnel answer, you know?

Well, 11.5, right? Yeah, 11.5, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. So, all right. Well, that's pretty easy to settle. I think one thing that kind of stands out as I did this, Joe, it's like Cincinnati, I thought,

has the worst position group at a lot of positions. But they were nine and eight last year, and they have Joe Burrow at quarterback, so it gets masked. It's, I would agree with you on some of that. I thought last year, I think we learned a lot about Zach Taylor, where the first two seasons in Cincinnati were not good. And then he gets Joe Burrow, and then all of a sudden they're good. And you're like, well, I don't know,

is he good because of Joe Burrow? like or is he good but then to go nine and eight last year with Jake Browning and then um you know some turnover on the defensive side of the football the running game really not being there. I think that was pretty impressive to me, but I don't think this is a team that I look at in Cincinnati and feel like they can have a lot in the way of injuries. I think they have some good depth when it comes to like their their edge rushers, but they can't they have to stay healthy. Like even at corner, I think like they're taking some gambles. Like I like Cam Taylor Britt and like DJ Turner platoon with Chiodobea Woozier, but like, is Dax Hill going to be a thing at corner now?

Like, I'm a little concerned about Cincinnati, but I do think that they have a top five quarterback and an amazing defensive mind in Luana Rumo who can scheme it up as good as anybody. And I think that gives you a chance, but I think there's some holes in this roster. I mean, Trey Henderson's asking to be traded, right? Yeah, but it feels like that's smoothed over. Okay. Of course, whenever there's a trade request with the Cincinnati Bengals, in one ear, out the other, They're not going to do it, right?

They time and time again. Yeah. We see trade requests. They tell them to kick rocks. And sometimes guys retire because of it. Sometimes they just suck it up and deal with it. But since he doesn't play ball like that. Again, though, this is just, it speaks to the ownership, I think.

It's just like it's got to be hard to build a roster consistently when the owner's such a stinky butt, you know. I thought he would change once he got Joe Burrow, like in this NFL environment, but it has obviously not proven to be. true. The year after they went to the Super Bowl and lost, they, they sat on like 60 million in cap space. Insane. They just, and the argument was, well, they got to extend players. Well, they ain't extending them guys. Like, look, you know. Yeah. It's just like blue chip talent like Jesse Bates. Just go away. Yeah. Like what? I mean, Jonah Williams wasn't a great player, but you didn't sign for a huge contract number. He would have been better than the continuity alone was valuable. So T. Higgins, obviously now. DJ Reeder. They let walk. And it's not because they don't have cap space.

Right. Again. Again. Yep. Very tough situation. Very hard to build a roster in Cincinnati. And so we have O-line, D-line, secondary, and linebaggers to talk about to expedite this a little bit, Joe. I just wanted to say, I have Cleveland as the best O-line, the best D-line, and the best secondary. Do you disagree with any of that? Cleveland has the best O-line. I think the weak link there is Jedrick Wills. Yeah. When you look at the sum of the other four parts, it's like, like, well, those four cover a multitude of sense. I'm inclined to agree with you on this.

I like the ceiling of Pittsburgh. Yes. But we got to see it with Fittano and Frazier and even like Broderick Jones and year two. I think that offensive line has a crazy ceiling. But right now the best offensive line is the Bengals. Or excuse me, the Browns, the Browns, the Browns, Browns. My lens is for the 2024 season. for right now. But we can get into that, too. Pittsburgh's draft this year was like franchise altering good.

Especially after last year with getting Porter and getting Keanu Benton and Broderick Jones. I mean, come on, man. They crushed it back to back years. Yeah. So, Omar Khan, I like the way he's doing business there as a GM. Absolutely, man. And they're getting back to Pittsburgh Steelers football too, which, you know, I'm a little more old school. So are you. I am a big data guy, but ultimately, like, they have a brand that was, they played winning football for two decades. So, or longer even. But man, the offensive line, the overhaul they've done in the last years, and I do have them number two, Joe. But Broder Jones last year, they brought in Isaac Sayamalu, James Daniels.

So basically three guys last year. This year they bring in Troy Fontano, Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick. They have completely overhauled, which was one of the worst offensive. line situations in the league in two off seasons. And it's like sky is the limit for them. Like this is a really awesome group, super athletic. They should be able to do whatever scheme they want. I know right now they're kind of living in that heavy zone world where traditionally Pittsburgh was more of a gap scheme, but it doesn't matter. They're awesome. I love the group they got. Can we have an honest conversation about Baltimore's offensive line? Because this is

fascinating to me. They move on from Kevin Zitler. They move on from Morgan Moses. They move on from John Simpson. And our replacement plan is hoping that Andrew Voorhees is good. Ben Cleveland, who you've drafted fairly early and has never really gotten consistent run. What are we going to have? Rookie right tackling Roger Rosengarten. Like you have a great center in Tyler Linderbaum. If Ronnie Stanley's healthy, he's a dude at left tackle.

But you are absolutely filling in the blanks with these other three spots. And I don't feel like people are talking up about this. I agree with you. I rank them. Do they rank them dead last? No, I ring Cincinnati last, but No, I agree with you. I mean, first of all,

rookie offensive linemen typically, especially when they're not of the highest pedigree, they're typically not great. I didn't also love Roger Rosengarten's tape as much as some guys did. I know Jim Nagy loves him, thought he was awesome. Wasn't for me at right tackle,

so you're going to rely on this guy to play 900 of snaps this year with not a ton behind him. Don't love that. Ben Cleveland hasn't played and he's going into year four. That's not usually, like even if you take the draft and develop approach where you're going to sit a guy a year or two still by year three usually that's when he makes his entry into your lineup then Cleveland really hasn't done that yet so and I'm out on Vortes didn't like him as a prospect didn't uh you know the snaps he got off of an ACL all the injuries all the injuries in the world at USC like yep this is a gamble man this is a big role that ice for Baltimore or I mean they transitioned a lot on defense as well yeah they're gosh I'm going to eat crow because they made me eat crow

last year. I picked them to finish last in the division last year, Joe, because I was seeing all this transpired. I'm like, man, there's so much turnover on the roster. They haven't, they don't have the drafted people in place to take those spots. And they still got it done last year somehow. Obviously, Lamar played out of his mind. So, um, again, elite quarterback going to carry this roster more than likely. Joe Burrow is going to do it in Cincinnati too, but offensive line wise. I'm, I'm a little worried about this with Lamar. I think sometimes the theory is when you have a quarterback as mobile as Lamar. You can be a little more loosey-goosey with it, right?

You know, his time to throw last year was 2.8 seconds, which is high. High, by far the highest in the league, minus Russell Wilson. Sorry, minus Russell Wilson, only guy higher than there. But Lamar's actually doing it to get stuff done where Russ really wasn't. He really covers up their pressure rate, though. Their pressure rates like 38% on throws under 2.5 seconds, which, which is high. Oh, wow. And the offensive line is not better. There's no way you look at it and feel like it's better. So yeah, I mean, Rosengarten's probably better in the run game than he has as a

pass protector right now too. So I think adding to identity a little bit there, but they're going to sacrifice something in pass pro. This is a great pass protector. Right. So that's a huge downgrade to me. So maybe Rosengarten pans out, Joe, down the road as a good player. But I, like expecting him to be Morgan Moses or better this year is not going to happen. It's wild. To me, to me, To me, the X Factor for Baltimore's offensive line is you got to find a spot for Patrick McCarrey. Like, stop keeping him on the bench because he's a versatile reserve and realize that he's one of your best five. I hate when teams do this. They always do it.

Wing tackle, right? Right. It's a whole bet. First injury, he's first guy in. Well, now they have Josh Jones who can play either tackle spot or backup interior guys. Just get McCarrey in the starting lineup. I'd play him at right tackle right now. And then if, you know, Stanley goes down, you move McCarry to the left side.

side, then Rosengarten can come in. But I would be protecting Rosengarten. And maybe, you know, maybe Rosengarten doesn't end up starting there. Maybe we're putting the cart before the horse. Right, right. Right. I think that deserves to play out. And I mean, candidly, it'd be surprised if, if everything was a fair shake and it

wasn't about the versatility that McCarie has the backup, if they don't really look at this competition and say, this is our best guy. And they should play it. You feel like Baltimore would be smart enough to do that. Absolutely. All right. Let's hit the defensive line. but before we do, we got to take one more break.

All right. D-Line, Joe. This is a, I mean, fun division because a lot of good defensive players, defensive linemen in this division for sure. I think you have an elite player on what? Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore. Do you call Hendrickson Elite or is he just very good to you? Oh, no, he's elite.

He's elite. Okay, so you got an elite defensive lineman on every team in this division. Some teams have more than one. For the sum of parts, I went with Cleveland as my top, my top team, but I could be swayed there. What do you see? Yeah, I think Cleveland has a case, but I, if we're counting edge rushers. Yeah, oh, yeah. Yeah, like, T.J. Watt, Alex, Highsmith, Cameron Hayward with Keanu Benton, Larry,

Agam Joby, Montravius Adams gives them some rush potential. Her big looks good as like a young edge rusher. I think they should sign Marcus Goldenback, but I think you have three like blue chip talents in Watt, Highsmith, and Hayward. I think the depth, you could probably tell me that the depth in Cleveland has a case to be made, but I think, I think it's Pittsburgh. I'm not going to lie to you. I forgot that they brought in Ogon Joby. He gives you some of that run defense that you needed. Right. Benton was so good as a rookie too last year. He was. He was one of my favorite players in his class, by the way. I thought he was in the first rounder all the way. Same. Yeah, Hayward is still playing

an elite level even though he's ancient. T.J. Waugh, obviously great. He's out there holding out, man. He says he wants a new deal. like 35 years old or something awesome you love it and a low key underrated signing too dean lowry dean lowry i mean he was good for the packers situation fit well i think he's a good scheme fit for them right like they need their lock peak and shed five techs like he certainly fits there he's quite the last couple of years so i'm looking for him to kind of bounce back in pittsburgh he goes he goes from the perfect scheme form in green bay they used them perfectly to basically an even front last year in minnesota which just didn't didn't really work out so Yeah, I think that's an underrated signing for sure.

All right, so you convince me. I'll go Pittsburgh one. Cleveland, two then for you? It's close, man. Yeah, like, I don't want to like make it like it's not close because I love what Cleveland has. Miles Garrett is as blue chip as they come. Zerias Smith is absolute stud opposite of him. Agbo Acher, Akronkwo is outstanding.

That is insane. Delvin Tomlinson's a stud, Shelby Harris. And then, like, Maurice Hurst was good for them last year. Q Jefferson coming over gives them pass rush. a lot of depth here that I like. And then they drafted Mike Hall in the second round, who. Oh, I love Mike Hall. Interior Rush ability, like, up the was. Like, they are, they're number two D-line. So their

backups at D-line are better than some team starters. I'd agree. I'd agree with that. All four of those guys could just go start for the, for the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah. I'm still, we'll do the Cardinals when we get to the Cardinals, but like, I'm surprised that Jonathan Ganon, as a defensive-minded coach, based on the rotation that he had in Philly, the reason he got this job, in Arizona. They haven't done more for him for that D-line, but it's got a for another day. It is. It is. One point on that, though, I think sometimes coaches think they can cobble it together because he's the defensive.

Patricia did this in Detroit. I'll figure it out. Yeah, I'll figure it out. We'll just build the other thing I don't know about, you know, but Baltimore, my third best D-line. I think, you know, Justin Madibuki is an elite player. They're lacking a little bit on the edge, though, to me. O'Day Addae Addafe, still haven't really seen it. David Ojobeau still haven't really seen it, although it could be coming. You know, both of those guys are highly talented. Van Nuys is still a really solid player. They added Adisa Isaac. I like the collection of parts. Someone just has to figure out how to make it work. You know? Yeah, I think I might be a little higher on Odafe Owe. I think he's kind of come

along. Maybe the SAC production hasn't been super high, but like, I think he's a very consistent pressure player. Van Noi, it's a perfect scheme fit for him. Matabweak elite. Michael Pierce is a monster at the nose. Travis Jones, I think is an amazing pack up to him. And Broderick Washington is like very serviceable in that like hybrid inside, outside role. So I like it. I don't think I look at Baltimore and say, wow, this is an issue. But I don't know that it's as good as the other two teams we've already discussed. In their base package, when you have to try to run the ball against Pierce Jones in Medibuique? Can't do it. That is a scary proposition.

Yeah. The Detroit Lions found that out very, very early. that game that they played against Baltimore last year is like, okay, this is not, our normal run game is not happening. As good as our O line is, that's not getting done. So, yeah, very, I think I like this group from a run defense standpoint, a little bit better than as pass rushers, but ultimately still a good group. Like, they're third in the, in the division to me, but they're still a good group. So then Cincinnati coming in, I mean, they have, what, they brought in Sheldon Rankins. Trey Hendrickson is awesome. Sam Hubbard's pretty good. B.J. Hill's good in run defense.

not a lot of depth, though, here. And that's where it gets scary for me. A couple injuries, they could be hurting. I think on the edge, they're a little bit better in terms of death. Obviously, really good starting Peron Hendrickson and Hubbard. I think Osai's come along fairly good as a depth rusher, even Cam Sample. I've enjoyed some of his tape. And then, of course, a recent first round pick and Miles Murphy.

I think their edge depth is a lot better. On the inside, where you have BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins, who I think, Rankins can rush. You can't play the run. Not at all. Yeah, so that's that. I like Chris Jenkins as a recent draft pick. Of course, this year, I'm really high on Chris Jenkins, but he's got to prove it. But like Zach Harder, I think stinks. I think Jay Duffelli has not been very good as kind of some of the younger guys that they drafted and haven't become a thing. So hopefully Chris Jenkins. And then they drafted that other dude out of Mississippi State, right? McKinley, McKinley Jackson. They need those two guys to become things for them behind Rankins and Hill. So like. the edge depth. I don't love it as much on the inside. Again, asterix, Chris Schenkins doesn't become a stud. I think he's going to be awesome, though. Yeah, one of my favorite stats for D-line players a group is adjusted yards before contact allowed. Bengals were dead last in the NFL,

mark a 2.1. I mean, that is highest, highest, highest, if I'm not mistaken. Yep. And it starts, it wasn't because of bad tackling or bad, you know, linebacker angles. It was legit, D-line play. Yeah. And like adding Rankin's to that is just kind of funny. Doesn't help, right? It doesn't help at all. Not at all.

So that's, and then you're losing DJ Reader, probably your best run stopper. So this is scary situation from a run defense standpoint. Do think I agree with you there, though, that they're better off rushing the pass around the edges. All right. Let's kind of cobble the back seven together here,

secondary and linebackers. Gosh, I don't know where to go with this. Where do you, what do you like? Cleveland. Cleveland, man. Secondary for sure. You like the linewriters?

I think Jeremiah Wusukoramoa is outstanding. I mean, Jordan Hicks, I think is a sufficient level player next to him. Used to be awesome, Jordan Hicks. But to me it's about the secondary. It's like, okay, well, if we're going to lump this all together, I mean, I'm concerned about all the, I go to Baltimore. Roquant Smith's awesome, but who knows how good Trenton Simpson is, right? That's a huge wild card. Cincinnati has a high floor in Logan Wilson and Jermaine Pratt.

I think it's a good pair. Yeah. We talked about the Browns, and then Pittsburgh has Patrick Queen coming in, and then I'm interested to see what happens next to him. Like, to me, Peyton Wilson is really exciting if he can stay healthy. They like a Landon Roberts as like this niche player that can just like shoot downhill and run into a straight line and be physical. Cole Holcomb, you know, they brought him in to start,

but obviously it feels like he's been injured and they've had some other guys that have gotten opportunities and played mainly at Landon Roberts. And then, of course, I think Peyton Wilson has a chance to be awesome. So, like, I don't know. Like, I think maybe the linebackers across this division are fairly close in terms of their quality, which puts me to the secondary to kind of find my tipping point. And I think Cleveland's corner situation of Denzo Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsom is unbelievable. And they got a stud pair of safeties and Delpit and Thorntill.

Yep, I agree. Their secondary by far is the best in the division to me. Ward is a shutdown corner. Newsom, when they, you know, putting him in the slot, I was skeptical of that at first, but he looks awesome in the slot. Definitely career resurrection, I would say. And then Emerson, I'm not sure how I feel about him. He got, he was good, but he got absolutely baked a couple times on deep stuff last year. Some of those shootouts I got into towards the end of the year was like Emerson just getting cooked. I like Thornhill and Delpit, though. It's a great safety

tandem. Yeah, I think Emerson, like, you knew that he didn't have the best recovery speed, right? But the length, the physicality, when he can play in press, you know, get up in the face, and he could suffocate and choke some routes. So I think that's kind of the tradeoff for the guy like Emerson. Yeah. And, you know, coming from the scheme he came from too at Mississippi State, like, that's what you get. Yeah. Guys who come up and press, play physical. Second, you like, probably what, Baltimore or Cincinnati next? Probably Baltimore. Um, unbelievable safety tandem and Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, Marlon Humphrey, if he's healthy, we know what he can do. Brandon Stevens has

been a nice little fine for them as well. And then, like, they drafted Nate Wiggins in the first round. Arthur Mollay, I think provides some level of a floor if they need him to play in the slot. I think that is something I like more than Cincinnati where I like Cam Taylor, Britt. I like Mike Hilton in the slot. But that other corner spot between DJ Turner and, like, if Dax Hill is going to be a thing, we'll find out.

Gino Stone, I don't know that he's like a seven interception guy perennarly. Right? Like, I think that was more circumstantial. I think he's probably a sufficient level starter. and Fondell comes back. I think he's a sufficient starter, but I don't know if they have the needle movers to me, like I see from Cleveland and Baltimore. I think I'm looking at, so Baltimore has the star power, right?

That is like the, they might have the highest pedigree secondary in the league. I mean, three number one overall picks, a maid man and Marcus Williams, and then a good find in the third round of Brandon Stevens. Like they have, you know, legit pedigree there. So it's interesting to me because they play, Kyle Hamilton in the slot a lot last year. And I wonder if the drafting of Nate Wiggins helps them keep him kind of as that box safety, you know, with Humphrey going back to the slot as a full-time slot guy. Because I think that's where Humphrey is by far his best, right? He's playing on the

slot. If you can, if you can make that work, if Wiggins can hold up out there on the outside, then I have Wiggins and Stevens, your outside corners. Yeah. Yeah. I do think that improves all five spots a little bit. So I think that that's really good. From Cincinnati standpoint, like, Gino Stone, I thought was really good last year. Coming to the Lou Anarumo scheme, like I have to, like, I think the best might be yet to come for him. Like, Lou is going to know exactly how to use him. Some of the coverages that he does are some of the most exotic stuff I've ever seen. As a guy who charts coverage on literally every play, you know, like he is insanely creative and a guy with that, you know, single high, too high, deep safety ability.

that Gino Stone has. I think that's going to allow him to be creative again, kind of like he was with Jesse Bates, which they probably should have just signed him instead. Ah, yeah. But, you know, Cincinnati is. Yeah, yeah, I digress. And then Mike Hilton's tried and true in the nickel, right? I mean, he's stud.

Top five slot corner in the league. Which leaves us with Pitt. I love Joey Porter Jr. I don't really like anything else to have. Minka? You got to like Minka, right? I'm one of the world's biggest Minka Fitzpatrick haters. Okay. Like, I know he's versatile and we're in this era of positionless football.

For me, it's not valuable if you don't play any position well. And I think that's where I'm making is that. He does everything like slightly above average or below average. Maybe deep safety is his best spot, but that's less valuable to me than a corner or a nickel, you know, where maybe he should be playing. I think this is the worst secondary in the division. Yes. Who's playing in this slot? Like, seriously, who's your slot corner here?

I, Darius Rush, Josiah Scott, I mean, bad. Yeah, I'm concerned about that. I think the Sean Elliott gives you a decent floor is like a downhill player and tackler as a low safety. And I think he complements Minka pretty well. But they got some things to sort out at corner. And now Joey Porter steps in as like the true number one guy and like Dante Jackson, can he stay healthy?

I don't know. I got some questions about the secondary. Can Elliot stay healthy? Has he missed time in three straight years? Has he? I didn't know I've not. I feel like there's a reason he can't find a long. Yeah, he's a starter for some team every year, like a different year, but then he plays

like decent football. I thought he was pretty solid for Miami last year. And he was really good for Detroit in the first year of the Campbell regime. I think it was. So he played 15 games last year, 14 with Detroit, six with Baltimore. So I heard that second year, 16 games in 2020. So, but he wasn't really a full-time player, though, right? He was kind of...

Yeah, he was a dime linebacker for them that year. So he was on the field for like 80 snaps. This is his fourth team in four seasons. There you go. Yeah. There you go. Yeah. Yeah, so he's good.

He's good. I should say he's a slightly above average player. He's not elevating the unit, though, as a whole. So I'm just... I think Dante Jackson, we know what he is. Then they're cobbling it together outside of that. Like, DeMonte Casey is there is a backup safety? That's a pretty decent third safety, right?

Like, that's not terrible. You think so? I think he's a third safety. That's fine. I think he's a quality depth player. Okay. In my mind, we don't have to see it the same.

When I look at their roster, I don't even know some of these guys. Like, I didn't get to Ryan Watts taped this year. Don't know Trenton Thompson. I mean, I remember Corey Trice from the 23 class. It wasn't a fan.

I don't think they're counting on those guys playing. Yeah, yeah. There's zero depth, though. Yeah, there's no depth. They all had, you know, a sixth or seven. defensive back that could get on the field and play, like they can't even really operate a dime if they needed to. No, they've been rolling the dice with corner for the last several years. And I feel like that sort of continues this year. Yeah. Now, thankfully for them, they do have Uber athletic linebacking group with,

you know, Queen and Holcomb and Wilson. Those guys can get it done in coverage. So that that helps a little bit, helps solidify the middle of the field. Maybe you can fan your safeties out a little bit more, protect those corners, but man, tough situation there. So all right, we got to wrap this pot up, Joe. But before we do, let's, we just went through the entire roster of every team in the division. Rank them now. Let's do projected standings. I haven't even, I didn't do this pre-show.

So I'm doing this live and I might put my foot in my mouth. So this could be exciting for everybody. Man, this is tough. There's so much turnover on Baltimore, coaching and roster-wise. Cincinnati, you worry about the depth of that team. and Joe Burrow coming back from injury and a lot of things different around Joe Burrow. He doesn't have Boyd. Tight ends are different, different running back, different right tackle.

Cleveland, how good is Deshaun Watson? I think that's probably the silver lining with Cleveland is that they did what they did last year without Deshaun Watson or Nick Chubb. So I think that's helpful in that conversation. In Pittsburgh, I have zero confidence in their quarterback play, but quarterback play wasn't the reason that they went to the playoffs last year anyways. So, like, I don't know, could you talk, could you talk yourself into like several different possibilities for how this goes for this division?

Yes. Last year I picked Baltimore to finish last, and I was badly mistaken. So I definitely can mental gymnastics my way to whatever I want to feel. You mentioned Cleveland's run game, getting it done without Chubb. You know what's crazy about that, Joe? They didn't have, like, their offensive line was bad in the run game last year. Second to last in the league and adjusted yards before contact per carry. Now, that can, that's not exclusive.

exclusively an O-line stat. If you have a running back with really poor vision, you know, that can contribute there. But for the most part, that's tried and true, consistent and projectable for offensive line play. Second to last in the league, and they still put up the rushing numbers that they did. It's kind of crazy.

Gosh. With their quarterback, so like, let's say that doesn't continue, right? Let's say, or I mean, sorry, let's say the offensive line does struggle and the running backs just take a slight step back in their efficiency. and then you're dealing with Deshawn Watson, who's been bad. We didn't get to this, but I wanted to actually ask you,

is it weird to you that the Cleveland Browns went and they signed two legitimate backups? Not one, but two. And James Winston and Tyler Huntley, they already had Dorian Thompson Robinson in the fold. They have four legitimate quarterbacks on the roster right now. That doesn't scream like, hey, we're really happy with Deshawn Watson right now. Yeah, well, and they're sort of the deal, they're definitely locked in, but that doesn't mean you can't consider some other ways.

Yeah, that's a very, very fair talking point. Okay, as we're trying to sort this out, I think I'm going to put Pittsburgh as last. Okay. I just don't trust her quarterback situation. We trust that one less than Cleveland, at least. So I'm probably going to put Cleveland at third, but I think that Cleveland has the best remainder of roster outside of quarterback. Correct.

Yeah, just looking at my position your brain, second wide receiver, second tight end group number one O line, number one D line, number one secondary. I mean, it's a good roster. I'll go Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh. That's exactly what I wrote down. So there's no debate there. But how about this? If James Winston was on Pittsburgh, how would you feel if he was their starter?

Would that help you or hurt you? I'd be equally as concerned. Equally as concerned. Okay. Okay. Yeah, I think I like that. I think Borough, like Cincinnati's roster might be the worst in the division, but they're strong at quarterback, they're strong at wide receiver. Their quarterback is really good.

He's going to carry them. Burroughs the top three guy in the league to me, so. Yeah, me too. This is assuming they don't trade T. Higgins. If they trade T. Higgins, then I'd be concerned. If they trade T. Higgins, it'd be the first player that had a trade request in Cincinnati that they met ever? So what are they going to do? Let them walk next year?

They're going to franchise tag him again. What goes up a little bit if they franchise tag them, but they have the cap space to do it? They don't do that either, though. They don't trade. If they don't meet trade requests, they don't re-send players except Joe Burrow. They might let the season play out a little bit. And like if they're stumbling or whatever, like, okay, it's time to sell T. Higgins. Yeah.

What do you think that he could get on the open market for Higgins? I think he goes for like a one in a three or one in a four, something like that. Yeah, one and some meaningful change. In the league where Brian Burns went for a two? Yeah, I can't explain it to. There's been something that's happened with player trade. and what they're worth. Like if you remember like the Khalil Mack,

Jamal Adams trades, Jaylen Ramsey trade. Like all those trades were like monster. And then like Brian Burns goes for like you mentioned, not even a first round pick involved there. I think there's been some other trades as well where the player trades just haven't had as much value. And I think it comes back to you got to pay them, right?

Like you have to, you know, you're giving up an asset to get a player, but then you're also, you know, it's a limited resource environment. You can only, you only have so much cap space to pay. So not only you're giving up meaningful draft capital, you have to commit cap space to them.

So you're giving away your best opportunities to get young players on cheap deals for a known commodity, but then you have to, it's hard, right? Like I feel like maybe teams are waking up to this a little bit. Yeah, it's definitely shifted. And also, we mentioned earlier, but the priority teams are putting on wide receiver, you know, I think the most recent big trades have been wide receivers, actually. Wide receivers always get trades.

Yeah. Get traded. Like that's the thing that has. happens in the NFL. Decent. You know, Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill. And those guys were getting a big cap number, too. So it's not like they were, you know, on cheap rookie deals or whatever.

So, all right, we got to get out of here. Recap real quick. We picked Baltimore to finish first in the AFC North, followed by Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. You good with that? Yeah, I'm good with that for now. All right. Cool.

That's going to do it for us today. The inaugural episode of First Read, we will be back next Thursday, actually. This will be a Friday release, but going forward will be probably Thursdays. every week through the off season. Thank you so much for listening and always remember no matter what happens, we are your first three.