Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Listener Mailbag

Episode Date: August 8, 2024

Welcome to First Read, your go-to podcast for the latest in NFL analysis and insights. Join hosts Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino as they dive into the mailbag for this episode, answering the listener's questions. Whether you're a fantasy football enthusiast, a die-hard fan, or just looking to stay informed on all things NFL, "First Read" has you covered. Tune in for expert opinions, detailed breakdowns, and engaging discussions every week. Don't miss out on the ultimate NFL podcast experience! Where to find us: http://twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First read. We are your first read, the film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Lockdown and me, Brett Whitefield, the C.O of FantasyPoints.com. Let's get after it. Brett Whitefield. What's up, dude, man? It's good to be here. It's good to have an episode today that is rooted in engagement of the listeners. It's been an awesome start to this podcast. And today we let the listeners take control of what we talk about. Yes, sir, our first ever mailback. Right. And the timing is good because next week, you know, we have the games, man. We got a full slate of preseason games that are kicking off over the next few days. And we'll have lots of film to break down and really become the podcast we envision to be.

But nice way to kind of get us out of the summer and into the regular season here or the season, if you will, not the regular season, the season. Yeah, I'm excited. I think my favorite part of the preseason is watching all the young quarterbacks play. So I'm looking forward to diving into breaking down their performance, you know, the next couple weeks here. Yeah, you know, speaking of young quarterbacks, I'll never forget the preseason that Nathan Peterman had where he had the perfect pass rating for the preseason. And then, you know, he was really awesome in the regular season. I'm not sure if you remember that. So I don't ever really know how much I'm supposed to put into preseason performance.

But it's never a bad thing if you play good, but it's not necessarily. an indicator that you're going to play good in the regular season. True. And by young quarterbacks, I didn't mean the pedigree types of Nathan Peterman. I was thinking more, you know, J.J. McCarthy, Bowdo, Nick. Oh, those guys. Those guys.

Michael Pennicks. Yeah, those guys. Yeah. Hooker, even for the lines. I'm excited about that. I know. That's like the third time you brought that up this week in our conversations. Head and Hooker.

Yeah, I got to see where he's at. We haven't seen him take a single snap in a lion's uniform. He was obviously recovering from the ACL last. year when preseason rolled around. So just I got to see where he's at. Got to see what that backup quarterback situation is looking like for my lions. We got to check out the kicker situation with the lions. That's what that's what's really brewing, man. Who's going to be the kicker? Jake Bates listed as the starter unofficially. However, yesterday in joint practice, he was like six for nine and he missed. I think all three

kicks he missed were between 40 and 50 yards. So not great. Nothing more annoying than kicker issues. Oh, dude. Which the NFC North knows. everything about like it's a curse division for the history of kickers in the NFL so i actually i've kind of enjoyed the fact that the lions have not had a good kicker in the dan campbell era because i think it's really helped them lean into their identity we've talked about this right yeah please someone talk about this yeah yeah i referenced the bills game all the time thanksgiving day 22 i love that game so good yeah so good so good um but when the lions opted to kick a field goal towards end of that game, I knew that that was game over, basically.

They had surrendered. They had waved the white flag. And so I'm a default aggressive type of guy. So I don't mind kicker issues for the lines because it helps Dan Campbell just be Dan Campbell. Just go be Dan Campbell. That's all we need, brother. Let's do it. Alan to Diggs, middle of the field. And then game winning field goal, Tyler passed Joe Marino's happy on Thanksgiving. I was a big fan of that, except for the whole part where Von Miller tore his ACL, you know, things, things haven't quite been the same there. Was that game? Yeah. Why don't I remember that? Oh, yeah, I do. Absolutely remember.

Well, yeah, because your Super Bowl run there. The closer was gone and he hasn't been the same. We'll see. We'll see what this year holds. It's 35 years old. We'll see. He's looked okay in camp. I've heard he looked good in camp. Is this not true? No, he has looked good. I'm just a very much, you know, caution. Don't want to get too excited. But yeah, I think he's had a very good camp. And he's had days where you thought Von Miller in a lot of ways.

look like Von Miller, but got to see it translate, you know, got to see it translate before I get my hopes up. Oh, Joe, I'm sorry. I don't want to cut you off. I know you want to dive into this. I wanted to get your thoughts on one thing, though, before we, before we do this. Training camp fights, especially in joint practices, where are you at on this? Thank you for bringing this up, because I have takes. First of all, I think everybody forgets that there are fights at regular training camp practices every day. So, like, they become more significant because it's a joint practice. But if you've ever been to a training camp practice,

there's two, three fights every single day with their own team. So like, first, let's start there. It's not a one-off. They happen every single day at every single camp across the NFL. If they don't, then I'm sorry, you could probably got the wrong collection of guys. You know what I mean? If you don't have a bunch of alpha males that are ready to throw a few haymakers, you know, this far into camp, then I don't know if you got the right dudes.

Second of all, is it really just like social media like driven? Like people care about it. Does it really matter? is it completely overhyped yes just listening to a couple coaches talk about it like even dayball and camp this week obviously lions camp or lions giants joint practices have there's been at least nine fights in two days and both the coaches just shrug it off like it's nothing like what i don't even know what you're talking about what do you mean yeah there were some there were some skirmishes no big deal this is what we expect it's ball man yeah the only one that was little crazy was the

neighbors yeah because that was that was bush league man that was bush league what was he doing I don't know. Yeah, that one took, I took exception with that one too because I'm like, man, you're just being a jerk. Yeah. That's not like, you know, things boiled over after the play. We're going to into a block and, you know, scrum. That was like a legit cheap shot.

But dude, like, okay, we can, we can be mad at Malik neighbors for that. I did tweet out that he's a tool. That's a very tool behavior. However, Kirby Joseph, my man, you took six to seven full haymaker swings to a guy with a helmet. Yeah, he didn't care. right he was ready to break his hand in the shed either my man like right he can't be doing that either you got a hand to devon singletary had the presence of mine put his mouthpiece in he's like all right now i'm ready to scrap

baby let's go yes oh man all right brett whitefield let's do it we got some outstanding questions that were sent in for our first ever mailbag here and one that i really like um and we'll find out for obvious reasons here in a second comes from erin rogers also known as mikey t Mikey T says, which quarterbacks are due for regression based on turnover worthy throws, not turning into interceptions and vice versa. Oof, I love this question. Yes. So if we're just, if you just want to go dive into the fantasy points data suite, which by the way,

this podcast is powered by the fantasy points data suite, you want to go in there and just, you know, sort by turnover worthy throw rate. You'll see there's a couple QBs who stick out. I think there's two candidates for me, or actually probably three, Joe. I don't know where you're going to go with this, but C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Will Levis. Those are the three where I'm like, they definitely got some turnover luck. And I know, I really want to get into C.J. Stroud because I want to hear your thoughts. But I know it's, it's sacrilegious at this point to speak bad things about C.J. Stroud,

because he was crowned as the next goat last year. He played great, exceeded expectations. However, there were some blemishes. So I do think he's probably my number one candidate. I think you brought up the right three names to correlate between, hey, you put the ball in harms way a lot and you just got lucky. They didn't pick it off. I think those are the right three names. What's interesting about two of them as they are rookies, right? Like C.J. Stroud and Will Levis were rookies last year. And they got away with a lot. And I think their interception

totals will come up. Perhaps I think for C.J. Stroud, I think he could double his interceptions. He threw five last year. I think that could be 1112 easily. And that's not even. a ton of interceptions. It's just not going to be that low. The player that's fascinating is the one I didn't mention yet, and that's Brock Purdy, where the sample size is a little bigger, man. And the more I watch Brock Purdy, the more I'm like, I guess it's, I guess he's just going to keep getting away with it. I guess it's just always going to work out because it just does. And the process is not as good as the results a lot of time, but for how long is this going to continue before we're like, I don't know. I think he's, I think he's, I think he's,

something there's something there i i don't have i don't have any like magical words to say other than the sample size keeps growing and he keeps getting away with it so the pretty thing's really interesting because for one you go watch his college tape joe he had great moments in college for sure but the guy was pretty reckless with the football he once through an interception that was caught 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage how on earth does that happen like that's scrambling around trying to do crazy things obviously trust his arm more than maybe he should like you said the results have been better than the process but the flip side of this is like so we know that's in his DNA right and he's put that tape out in the NFL as well it just hasn't cost him yet but what if they do lose brandon iuk and

we're going to get to there's several brandon iu questions here i think so we'll get to iuk specifically but as it pertains to brock purdy i think that could be pretty big for him and maybe turning that luck back towards average because purdy or i'm sorry i yuk has bailed purdy out of a lot of a lot of interesting situations where he's chucking up a yolo ball and now you just gone up and got it. I think the Lions NFC championship game against the Detroit Lions where that hit Kendall Vildor in the face mask and then that turns into like a 45-yard play that gets down on the one-yard line. That should have been an interception. Yeah, I think that's a good way to look at it. You know, I think that's a new piece of information that not having Brandon Ayyuk, that certainly could

certainly hurt his chances of continuing to have good luck when it comes to turnover worthy throws. How about the other side of this conversation, Brett Whitefield? And why is Josh Allen the player that we need to talk about right now? I'm so glad you brought this up. I wanted to point it out just because our guy, Football Insights, Nick Spanola at Fantasy Points, he put out a chart, this is what a month ago now, where he's breaking down, you know, it's one of those charts showing basically the line average and then people above the line were bad luck, people below the line were good luck. Josh Allen was very bad luck last year.

Turnover worthy throw rate wasn't bad by any means, yet he threw, what, 15 picks? Maybe more. Maybe more, yeah. So I think just naturally that's going to come back down. I mean, like every time he threw, put a ball in harm's way, it was picked off. He had zero luck whatsoever. Right. And I think, unfortunately, the bills opened the season on Monday night football in front of the world and Aaron Rogers making his jet's debut. and Josh has three awful interceptions, right?

And sometimes it's hard to break those first impressions. You know, I think about like Sam Howell, do you remember that opening game at North Carolina? They had like a week. It was a Virginia Tech on a Friday night. Everyone's watching it and he stunk. And then he went on to have a pretty good season. But the only thing anyone ever remembered was the Virginia Tech game.

That was the first game of a senior year, right? Yeah, his last season at North Carolina. And, you know, it was him or Spencer Rattler, who's going to be the number one overall pick? Well, the answer to that's neither. Neither one's even going to be a day one or day two pick. So there's that. Yeah, but I think Josh Allen, those that will come down.

And I think what the most important thing about Josh Allen and turnovers is he's also got the best touchdown to turnover ratio in the NFL by far. And wake me up the next time Josh Allen has a turnover late in the game that winds up costing the bills. Wake me up when he does it in the postseason. Like he's one of the most dynamic players in the postseason. that doesn't turn over the football. So there's so much bad conversations around Josh Allen.

And I think that those numbers should come down. I think the dynamics around Josh Allen being different is probably what concerns me. It's not necessarily Josh Allen, his process, the way he approaches the game, it's Josh Allen throwing to all these new players. And a lot of those players being size guys where they're not big separation players. And now you're kind of relying on them to separate at the catch point with length and catch radius. and maybe that Josh, that gets Josh Allen into a little bit of trouble. But I'm not sure that a lot of the conversation is good out there as it relates to Josh Allen and turnovers.

I fully agree with that. Do you can, he fumbles the ball a little bit too, right? Like, yeah, yeah, he does. He does. That's probably more concerning to me than the interceptions actually, because the interception luck hasn't been there. But when you are scrambling around kind of trying to make a play, I mean, we see this with Mahomes too, right? It's like, you can invite a little bit of chaos in your life.

So maybe if he could just cut down on that a little bit, maybe that's the angle needs to be taken, not the interception luck. All right, Brett Whitefield and I are going to talk about a buzzing name at the running back position here in just a moment. So be sure to stick with us. All right, Brett. Let's get into a player here that I think we see differently. And that's Amir White. This question comes courtesy of Obsession NFL who says,

what is the ceiling for Las Vegas Raiders running back Zemir White? I legit see him as a high-end RV2. If all goes well, could it be or am I getting delusional? To me, so obviously this is a question geared towards fantasy football. Just full disclosure, Joe and I aren't fantasy guys, but we do have our pulse on the NFL so we can give you really good insight into that. I just a high-end RB2 to me, gosh, I don't know that he can get there personally. If that's the baseline, I think he's probably a low-end RB2.

maybe high end RB3, but like what do you think his statistical ceiling is, Joe? I'm thinking like what a thousand yards rushing, six, seven TDs, not a lot of activity in the passing game. That would make him like a low end RB2 if you agree with those statements. Yeah, I think that's a reasonable projection. First of all, let me declare that I am a dynasty owner of Samir White. I had him on my taxi squad for like two years and now the greatest reward in the history of having a taxi squad is now the guy that you stash is the feature back for the Las Vegas Raiders, which was nice because I did have Josh Jacobs as well.

So it was like, you know, have your cake and eat it too. And so Zemir White, I think where I draw a lot of optimism for him this coming season is how he finished last year. He kind of had an opportunity to be the guy over the last four games of the season. And he had a, he was very productive. He had a lot of touches. 17 for 69 and a touchdown. 22 for a buck 45, 20 for 71.

25 for a buck 12. That was all there. Now, the receiving production wasn't huge. He did have five catches in the week 16 game against Indy on six targets. And, you know, he got a decent amount of opportunity to catch the football. But I don't know that that's going to be a strength. But this is a Raiders team that we know wants to run the football, right? Like, that's their bread and butter. We've heard Antonio Pierce talk about this.

And the Raiders are going to be at their best when they can lean on their rushing offense. And Josh Jacobs isn't around. And the only meaningful, quote unquote, meaningful thing that the Raiders did at the running back position was signed Alexander Madison who stinks out loud. And so I'm pretty high on the opportunity that's going to exist for Zemir White. And that matters a ton when it comes to fantasy. Like you have opportunity. That's how you get stats. And I think he's going to get a lot of touches that puts him north of a thousand rushing yards, modest receiving production.

But I think a reasonable RB2 is what Zameer White can. be and I think he's going to get a lot of touches and I certainly think like goal like he's going to get the goal line carries I think there's a lot to like about zimir white and fantasy this year so the the Madison point I actually think this is more significant against zimir white than than you think like I think Madison's a he's an established running back in the NFL he had that's serious last year than zimir white I don't know that he stinks Minnesota offensive line's been terrible in the run game for about three years like dalvin Cook's last year there. They were awful even.

And Dalvin Cook's also was awful as last year. Look at Ty Chandler was behind that offensive line. Yeah, Ty Chandler's more of a scheme fit, though. Like they're backed like with Kevin O'Connell in the fold, they literally are just an outside zone team. They run a power occasionally, but they're outside zone heavy. Alexander Madison's not an outside zone runner. He much better fits what the Las Vegas Raiders do from a run scheme perspective.

And I look at like his advanced metrics, he forced. miss tackles at double the rate Zimir White did last year. Double the rate. I mean, yards after contact per carry are also very similar. Madison is a physical bowling ball type runner similar to Zemir White. And I'm not saying Madison's going to have this great season. I just

think like, I think people think there's this run heavy team in the Raiders and Zemir White now is the guy who gets all of like the 90% of the workload. I think it's going to be more 70, 30 probably. And then to make matters worse, Madison is probably a better receiver than White, better catch the football.

and they have Dylan Lauby and Amir Abdullah who have both carved out roles as as past catchers, you know, in their collegiate and then now NFL career with Amir Abdullah. So I just, I don't think this is as clean of an opportunity for Zemir White as a lot of people think personally, especially like what we know about the player. Like he wasn't a very good player in college. I didn't think he had high pedigree coming out. There's a reason, you know, he was drafted where he was. And then to make matters worse, I just think they've added two running backs.

I don't know. I'm just a little less bullish on. Zemir White. I do think he is the starter. He'll get a big chunk of the workload there. I just think, you know, the efficiency plus the addition to Madison is going to hurt him a little bit, personally. All right. I like this one. This next one here from Jamie. Are the Steelers a bigger threat with Russell Wilson or Justin Fields as the starting quarterback? Well, very similar players in some ways and very different players in other ways, right?

So I think when you look at two guys that have no ability to function. keep an offense in rhythm to run pass plays as they're designed and you know hit your first read hit that back foot let the ball rip these are not guys that do that these are both guys that invite chaos and in their life i think russell wilson's tape the last years though has been so bad that i'm actually going to say justin field here josephield still has the youth on his side he's still a dynamic runner he he brings the offense a certain floor because of that running ability we know arthur smith you know has favored mobile quarterbacks as well, not that he ever used them correctly necessarily, but I think maybe he gets the most out of Justin Fields here where I think Russell would be

really tough for him. Think about all the boot action stuff Arthur Smith likes to do. You think Russell Wilson's running those concepts at a high level? No. Not at all. I first off want to say that it's important to acknowledge that Pittsburgh was a playoff team last year and it had nothing to do with quarterback play, right? It was in spite of quarterback play rolling through Kenny Pickett and Mitch Tribisky and Mason Rudolph, and I think Mason Rudolph had a couple of good starts later in the season. But it wasn't because he's quarterbacks for the catalyst. And so I think that should give Steelers fans some optimism. I can't do Russ Wilson, man.

I can't do it. I think it's fair to say that both of these guys don't run the offense. And that's a problem. But I think that fields is more dynamic right now because I think his rushing ability is just better. And he has a little bit more appetite for risk. and I think that's a good thing because Russ, I mean, Russ is the type of quarterback that's going to take, like run the ball out of bounds and take a loss before he just throws the ball away

because he cares about things like passerating. I can't do it, man. I can't do it. And so give me Fields as a guy that's going to put it out there a little bit more. I think, I mean, he has more physical gifts. He's bigger, has more arm talent, he's a better runner. So I think they're a bigger threat with Justin Fields, although for kind of back to my opening point here,

if the idea for the Steelers is to play good defense, run the football, and then your quarterback not hurt you, then that's your case for Russ Wilson. I just can't do it. Yeah, that's a good point. I think something that you said in there, it's made something click in my brain.

So these are both guys that invite a lot of chaos in your life. So if you're going to invite that chaos, there has to be a certain prospect of payoff, right? And with Russell Wilson, I'm not sure what that pay. is on any given play. Like we know he's not going to break a 40-yard run. No.

Where Justin Fields, like, you got a lot of outs if you're going to invite that chaos. He can break several tackles in the backfield and move the changes of his legs rather easily. And then also, he does throw a really nice deep ball. And you got a guy like George Pickens on your team, Roman Wilson, who can go get it. I'm just wondering, you know, Fields, even though he's going to invite that chaos, I think the prospect of payoff on a per play basis is much higher with Fields. He's going to connect on some of those deep balls.

to make things happen with his legs. Protecting your offense with defense and running the football stuff, I kind of think that favors field still, man, because like you can build in quarterback run into that scheme now. You can tag read option on everything. You can, you know, run QB power down on the goal line. Like, you can move those chains with fields as a runner. And you're not going to require him to do as much with his arm where Russell, I don't think he's got it left in the legs. I think that part of his game has passed him up. So we are all in on fields. and him being the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers. All right, well, coming up here in just a moment,

we're going to talk about maybe a new weapon for the Steelers and a big name across the NFL right now. Stick with us. All right, Bright Whitefield. Let's talk a little Brandon Ayuk, and we get this question courtesy of Bub, who says, with all the rumblings about an Iok trade, rent the three landing spots,

the Brown Steelers, Patriots, an order from best to worst. And of course, this comes, you should know as a listener that we are answering this question. We're recording this podcast on Wednesday morning. So if Brandon Ayak gets traded between now and the time that you listen to it, that's okay. You know the answer, but we still want to attack this through the lens of, all right, these are the destinations, knowing now that the Patriots are out because, you know, Brandon Iyck doesn't want to play for him, which is totally understandable.

But we could still factor them into this equation. Brett Whitefield, the destinations, Brown Steelers, Patriots, Order of best to worst for Brandon Ayuk. Could we throw a fourth team in there? Because as of this morning, it sounds like the commanders are on that final list now. The fourth team has emerged, which was the team Ayuk obviously wanted to go to the whole time with the Jaden Daniels connection. So I'll just throw the commanders in there too.

I think best to worst spots for Iyuk, regardless of what he wants to do, probably Patriots Browns, commander, Steelers. And I'll give you a quick reason why on all of them. Patriots, I think opportunities there. Obviously, they just drafted two guys in Jalin Polk and Javon Baker, but they're really void of talent in a lot of ways. And those guys haven't developed yet. Ayuk would instantly become the dude, new staff, new regime. They're starting from page one. He'd get to grow with Drake May, the new quarterback there and be the guy from day one. We're talking about making sure you're getting your money's worth when you give him that new

contract. Well, he's instantly 140 plus target guy in New England. That's easy. You know, that would make, that would elevate their entire room. That wasn't quick, like I said, it would be. But anyways, Cleveland, I think they're a very good football team. And he's playing in that Kyle Shanahan offense. Kevin Stefanski basically runs an iteration of it. I think nomenclature-wise, that'd be a really easy swap, right? Iyuk goes into Cleveland. Now, it sounds like if that were to be a deal, Amari Cooper would actually be going. Yeah. to Sam Fran. So again, another great situation for target volume, right? And that's what I you want. He wants to prove he's the guy. So he goes into Cleveland. If I, if Amari Cooper is part

of that deal in return, then he's probably the de facto one. I know Jerry Judy just got paid, but I don't think he's getting paid that much. I think you'd have a one, a clear one and two there. And then I mentioned the commanders. I like this fit, obviously teaming up with the, with the college quarterback he played with, but Terry McLaurin is a pretty good player. You like Jahan Dots, and I think there's more competition for targets there with a young quarterback who, you know, likes to run a lot. I'm just not sure the opportunity is what IUC thinks it would be. And then Steelers, that's just a dumpster fire offense right now. We know Arthur Smith doesn't know how to use his weapons correctly. We just broke down the quarterback situation for you.

So I think that'd be last place for me. What say you? Well, I think it's through the lens of the opportunity for Iyuk to be the guy and command a lot of volume. I think you have it in the appropriate order. And I would argue that all of those teams could use IOC, right? This is the right mix of teams that should be in on this. I think the Chargers should be in on this. But, you know, they don't seem to be. So I think if they were a candidate here, I'd be like, get that done immediately. And you'd have to think, like, if he does go to the commanders,

Johan Dotson goes to the 49ers. That's what's complicating with this entire conversation is the 49ers have a great opportunity to win the Super Bowl this year. And trading away Brandon Ayak doesn't help with that. And so you need meaningful pieces back that are going to help you. win the Super Bowl. It's like, great. I get a first round pick in 2025. I don't care about that. I need help right now. And that's what makes this complicated. I mean, of course, it's always complicated when you're going to trade a player. You have to give up assets and you have to also

figure out a long-term extension with that player. But it's even more complicated because it's a 49ers. It's not just draft picks. It's not just draft picks. You need to get players back. So I like the order that you put them. I, the commanders are interesting because if he does want to be the number one guy, obviously, Terry McCoran is there. And that makes it a little more complicated. But I think it says something. If that's where he wants to be, that's pretty appealing to me as well. I'm not going to be upset if I have Brandon Iok and Terry McCorren for Jaden Daniels. That gets us into the Caleb Williams conversation of, wow, look at these great players that are around him. Now, the problem with the commanders is their offensive line is terrible. Like, it's an unsurious position group. And I think that,

and that puts a wet blanket over every idea that we could have for the Washington commanders, and their offense, especially with Jaden Daniels and his makeup and, you know, what the curve is going to be for him with Cliff Kingsbury. But I like the order that you had him, man. I'm not going to lie. I think he had it the right way. I like your point about, you know, where he wants to go is probably the best fit. That's probably true. Yeah, it's the charges, the more you said the charges and instantly sparked. Like, they should be in this. Why aren't they in this? Is it because they can't pay him? Is that? Because they just dealt Mike Williams and Keenan Allen to free up salary cap. Is that an issue, you think? Maybe so. I mean, obviously, the quarterback situation is the best to me with the Chargers.

And for whatever you think about the cast of characters around Herbert, you know, none of them are Iok. I think I, I think, is the kind of guy that I think is a legit number one receiver in today's NFL. I think it's open. Makes plays at all three levels. I think he's a top six to eight wide receiver. This isn't phenomenal. Yeah. There's nothing, there's nothing light about this type of addition.

So a lot of, I mean, the combination of having the cap space, the opportunity, the compensation ability, it's, you know, it limits the pool, but we're not talking about small stuff at receiver here in IOC. For one other angle, we could go here too. For a team like, say, the Cleveland Browns, who are every bit in the playoff mix, I mean, they think they're ready to go compete for a Super Bowl, right? The longer this drags out into training camp, doesn't it start to shut that window? Oh, right, especially if you're dealing a guy like Armari Cooper, if he's part of the deal, you're basically saying goodbye to your wide receiver one and then also admitting, we have three weeks to get this guy ready. Yeah. And I know he knows the playbook kind of because Stefansky, there's that overlap in nomenclature,

yada, but at some point, though, right, that becomes, time becomes an issue, right, in making a deal like that for a team like Cleveland. No doubt. Yeah, you want to get time on task and reps and chemistry built, and that's difficult. And I love Amari Cooper. I'm not saying the Brown shouldn't be in, but like, you've done you, you have, to me, they have the less urgency, the least amount of urgency to do this because I think, I mean, they have Cooper and Judy and Elijah Moore and David and Joku.

Like, we're not struggling here. Like maybe your best opportunity this year is to kind of stick with what you have and the players that have been working together all year long to this point. So, all right, fun, fun conversation. We'll see what happened. Something's going to happen. Something's going to happen. And I still think that, I mean, there's,

49ers have a ton of cap space right now. I know there's a lot of decisions to be made, but Brandon Iyok would probably be part of my plan. Like, yeah, I'd probably figure out, I make concessions elsewhere. I'd want to have Iyuk.

I really would. So I agree. I think it's a math game. Like they, like Iyuk is capable of being a target hog and he's never been asked to be a target hog. So I think he wants to get paid like he's a target hog, but they're like, bro,

you catch 60 passes a year. Like what? Trade Debo. I agree with that. Like, why are we not, trading Debo. When they drafted Ricky Pearsall, I thought it was to trade Debo because he does he has overlap with both guys. Actually, I wrote that in my scouting profile and my

prospect guide if you go to fancy points.com and check that out. So I did write that he has overlap with both players, but more overlap with Debo where he was a short area player, a lot of his college career, a lot of screen usage, jet sweeps. Now he's not as dynamic as Debo as that goes, but he's also probably a better route runner than Debo. He's better at beating man coverage than Debo. So, yeah, trade debo, roll with IUC and Pierceall, and I think you'd have a lot of fun. Yeah, I'm down for that. Here's a fun one from Joe B, who says you are NFL general manager for a day. Your owner tells you funds exist to invest in either a true lockdown corner or elite edge rusher.

Both players impact the run game identical. What are you putting your money on? This is, I think this is my favorite question we got, not to play favorites here. I love this question. This is the type of stuff I can talk about all day long. I think I've flipped on this, Joe. So you've known me for a long time. We've probably had this discussion on the phone multiple times, right?

I think we have. This is going to be interesting twist because I expected you to answer this a particular way. You expected me to say corner. Yeah. So I think in a vacuum of one season, I think a lockdown corner, I think the analytics bear this out too is a lockdown corner is more. valuable than an edge rusher. Here's the problem. Here's why I

flipped, and I'm going to say edge rusher. It's really simple. Edge rushers are more predictable year over year. When you have a guy who can get you 90 to 100 pressures a season, it's pretty certain he's going to do that, assuming he's healthy, year over year, where being a corner in the NFL

is very difficult. And look at advanced metrics for any top corner you find out there. Their season production is all over the place year to year. So they might have a year. Like, we haven't seen it with Saucet. He's only been in the league for two years.

But even like a guy like Pat Surtan, he's had two great years and a bad year. Typically, though, that's how it goes with corners. They're all over the place. And it's just the nature of the position. Now, if you could guarantee me, like I said, one season, you can have a lockdown corner who I know will be a lockdown or a top 10 edge. I'd take the corner. But if I'm building a roster and I have to invest long-term and I'm going to take the consistency

of knowing what I'm going to get out of that edge defender, year over year. I'm surprised that you got to edge and I'm also a little surprised that that was your reason because that doesn't even get into any of the merits of like the impact of the pass rush versus the impact of the coverage. Right. So I thought I was prepared for this coverage versus pass rush debate and you, you didn't really make it about that. You said, well, the consistency of top level performers is what matters most of me. And I think that's, that's good. I think that's a, that's a really good angle to hit it from. So since you chose that route, I want to ask you a question.

Why do you think there is so much variance when it comes to the level of play of top corners, knowing that, I mean, we've been following the league for a long time. And one of the most common conversations out there has been who's the best corner in the league, right? And every year, it's a different answer. Every year it's a different answer. And guys fall from grace very, very quickly. Why? Is it because it's such a, like, health matters so much at corner.

And I think it's a hard position to play. And so if you're not functioning optimally, it's difficult to mirror and match and do the things you're supposed to be. What is it? So this is a would require like a multi-varied analysis for sure. Health is a huge part of it, though. You mentioned that. Imagine, so like most NFL players try to play through injuries. Yeah.

Imagine being a guy, you got to line up against someone who can run a 435 and you got a slight hamstring tweak. And you're not, your body's not performing optimally. What are you supposed to do in that situation? It's not like you're just punching the goal in front of you and going to, to make a tackle like you got to run with this guy for 40 yards down field on a lot of plays like that's not easy health so health is a big one and then we can get into this you know chicken or the egg conversation with pass rush versus coverage which was the the basis of the argument I guess but like yeah I think year over year if a pass rush starts to struggle you're going to see the cornerback play fall off for

sure I think the when I said the analytics are in favor of coverage it's very minorly but you do see that a lockdown corner affects pass rush more than an elite pass rush affects a corner. So if you have a lockdown corner or two of them, for example, you'll see the pass rush get better. Where if you have a really good pass rush, it does help the corners for sure. It doesn't help them quite on the same level. But again, this is chicken or the egg, right? It's really hard to dissect this and figure out what affects more or what affects what more. But ultimately, I think there's probably nine variables of why cornerback plays.

So shaky and unstable. I also think that you need to have more than one good pass rusher. If you're just getting pressure from one side, and if our quarterbacks know how to move and navigate the pocket and make that not matter, you need complimentary pressure. So that way you get it off the edge, well, can he step forward? No, because you have a great interior guy or can he evade through the other side of the pocket? No, well, you have another good rush around the other side.

So I think one of the important elements of pass rush in general is your group working to together to rush is one. But there's certainly a lot of, there's a lot that goes hand in hand. Like your pass rush complements your coverage, just like your coverage complements your pass rush. But it's interesting. We avoid, somehow we avoided a pass rush versus coverage debate. And I, I'm a pass rush guy.

Like, yeah. Doesn't sound like we have to get into any of that. Here's an interesting way to look at it too for corners specifically. So you get a guy who's a really good corner. Like think Legerius Sneed early in his career where, oh, wow, this guy's a emerged as a really solid corner. But they didn't, he wasn't quite yet pinned as like this shut down lockdown corner. So what inevitably happens though, once a guy reaches a certain level of play is your defensive coordinator now goes, hey, I got this guy. He can he can lock down half the field

on his own. So we're going to start rolling coverage away from him now. We're going to start helping the other guys more. Well, now this guy who is existing in a normal defensive, you know, coverage scheme is having to carry a lot more weight. And I think there's some volatility there as well, right? Because now you're getting ISOed a lot more. Like it's, I think that's a big thing. Like we've seen this in New England where a guy will emerge as a shutdown corner. He goes to another scheme and gets his doors blown off, you know, because over and over again. Yeah, all of a sudden he's getting paid a ton of money.

Yeah. The defensive coordinator thinks, oh, I got this lockdown corner. We're going to roll coverages to the other side, help our other guys out. And this dude is one on one on dang near every rep and just gets massacred. Like, we've seen this a lot. So I think that's a big aspect, too, where you see some volatility. as faith grows in a corner, his assignments also get larger, and then the play kind of falls off a little bit.

All right. This question comes from Joe Marino, and it's for Brent Whitefield. You get to pick any corner in the NFL to be on your team this year, to be your number one corner. Who's your guy? I think I have to go sauce. It'd be sauce or Pat Sertan, but I'm going sauce. What he's done the first years has been insane.

The fact that he seamlessly transitions between man and zone, You know, match mirror technique is awesome. Instincts, ball skills, physicality, health, all those things. Just scream in his favor to me. Who's the most overrated corner in the NFL? Most overrated? I don't want to say it. It's going to make people mad.

Duran Bland? Well, okay. Yeah, I didn't know we were punching down like that. Did people think he's awesome? Yeah, if you watch his date, the guy gets cooked left and right. I'd say both of those corners. Tronant Diggs and Duran Bland. probably very overrated.

They make a lot of plays on the ball, which is good, but they get smoked, absolutely smoked, dusted. I was going to say Jalen Ramsey. As an outside corner. I think he's a phenomenal player. But he's been crowned as this absolute lockdown guy. He's never really been that. He's a Swiss Army knife. You can do a lot of things with him.

He's awesome in zone coverage. Sure. I don't think he's this lockdown corner. Yeah, well, I think Miami's planning on moving him around. And I think generally that's when Ramsey's been at his best. I got to finish off my questioning here. Who's the most underrated corner in the league? I think, and I was just talking about this with Stephen O'Rourke,

one of my guys at Fantasy Points Data. I think Derek Stingley is about to step into legit top six corner in the NFL. I think he's the guy that's going to emerge this year. I like that. Shout out my guy, Christian Benford. Oh, I like Benny. Good player, man. Good player.

All right. We're going to get into some of the contending teams and what the Achilles heel for them is in 2024, so be short to stick with us. All right, Brett Whitefield. This next question comes from Mike Howard, who says, what are the Achilles heels for the championship contenders and how can they address them before the season, whether the players are on the roster already or if they need to make a potential trade or free agent signing to address that issue?

I think the question here is how deep do we want to get? Because, you know, it's funny, I was the other day I was thinking to myself, what teams if they won the Super Bowl this year, like I wouldn't be surprised. Like, there's only, there's only so many teams every year that can actually do it. I got to like eight to ten teams and I think, okay, if they won the Super Bowl, I don't think I'd be surprised. Did you? Okay.

We'll start there. Throw me your eight to ten teams. I don't think my list is that deep, but. Okay. Okay. I would not be surprised that the following teams won the Super Bowl. The Eagles, the Lions, the Packers, the 49ers, the Chiefs, the Texas, the Texas, The Texans, the Ravens, the Bengals, and the Bills.

That's nine. That's it. You said it'll be the nine. So that's perfect. Yeah. I, okay, we're, we agree on a lot. You want to ax any of those? Or do you want to add any?

I would tax the Texans and the Packers, I think. Oh, the Packers, you're nuts. No, no. I think the Packers are a good team. It would still surprise me if they won the Super Bowl. I would very much surprise me. I don't think they're there yet. Okay.

Right. Like, you wouldn't, you wouldn't be surprised at all. If I told you right. right now the green bay pack a young emerging football team with a quarterback that looks like he's ready to take the league by storm that won a playoff game that took the 49ers to the brink yeah no i'm not going to be surprised if they win it's very good for seven games you're correct yeah come on bratt whitefield come we're going to keep doing this we're going to keep doing this all right you the the the the operative word was surprised though i still think that would be a surprise to everybody

they're not even predicted to win their division because the lions are in there and they're one of the best teams in the league so right that that implies a surprise though does it i i kind of feel like it does i don't know you it only can be the division favorite that's the only it's not only division favorite but it's like i don't know their path like you winning your division's the easiest path to the super bowl but i mean i think the two most common picks for super bowl winners right now are chiefs and bills then after that you have niners and lions really you think people are in on the bills like that i think there's a lot yeah yeah all right we got to get this to a manageable list somehow I think is we're cutting teams right there you go so you don't want to add any do you want to add any I don't want to add me I think you nailed the the seven I would pick and then just minus the Packers all right well it's consensus okay it has to be so the consensus seven let's work through it let's start with the Eagles what's their Achilles heel what makes you nervous about Philly well they're going to have a really young secondary that's probably my my big concern there I mean it's tough too because they have two brand new coordinators so like like I would like to say the offense but they brought in Kellan Moore who does

a lot of the things, a lot of the things they were lacking last year, Kellan Moore does at a high level. So I'm like, there's got to be some give and take there. I think maybe the offense gets a little bit better. But we don't know because it's a new coordinator, right? So that's, I would say the young secondary for me. It's funny because it's like a young secondary, but also, hi, Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner Johnson. So you've got some, you've got some veterans there.

But yeah, I mean, you could be looking at like Keeley Ringo and Reed Blankenship and Quinyon Mitchell and we'll see what Kuportezine does. Like there's, yeah, there's a lot of youth there. It's young, but it's high upside, too, though. Like, they could actually smash. All those guys are very good players. They are good prospects. So it's, that's a weird balance.

Good team. I will, I agree with you on the secondary, but I think it's coupled with the linebackers. Okay. I think, you know, Devin White and Zach Bonn, are we serious? Is Nicobie Dean? Like, this is not good. That, that's what gets me nervous about them. And I don't, I also don't think they have the defensive line depth that they've had in years past.

So maybe it's the defense. Can, can, can, Can bad linebackers lose you a chance at the Super Bowl? Okay, so here's the deal with linebackers. I think it's the easiest position for an offense to manipulate. And so like, I think that in today's NFL, linebackers at times, no matter what they do, they're wrong. And when you're trotting Devin White and Zach Bonn out there, I mean, Devin White's garbage.

He literally is just a gap shooter. Well, I love this. We don't normally get Joe to to slam a player into the dirt like that. I like it. I mean, I'm sitting there. I didn't like Devin White as a prize. prospect and then I got guilted into liking him. Then he goes top five, which everybody expected.

Everybody knew he was going to the Buccaneers. And then he gets all this hype. He's talking about being a hundred million dollar year linebacker. And he was a net negative to that defense, very limited football player with poor instincts. Yep. Should have converted to edge. Right. Yeah.

And now what is he going to do for Vic Fangio in his own match defense? What is he going to do? This guy, this is a, if you want to give value out of Devin White, he's got to play for like Rex Ryan and be a Brandon Spikes type player. True. Downhill. He's a Landon Roberts. Put him with Flores. He could be the Ivan Pace player. It's a good point. But you can't ask this guy to be your Mike linebacker and be a serious defense in my opinion. Yeah. I wasn't saying when I asked the question too, by the way, I wasn't saying I think linebacker, you know, I do think you can lose because of linebackers. I think though the drop off between good and

below average is not that steep. I think there are very few game changers at the linebacker So, but I do agree the Eagles linebacker room is probably bottom three for sure. Well, and that's why I called, I said coupled with the young secondary because I think that makes everybody's job a little more difficult. Agreed. That's, that's Philly. We both had the Lions. What's the Lions Achilles?

This is not going to be a popular opinion, but I think offensive line depth. I said this to you like a month ago and you didn't want to hear it. Really? I didn't. You didn't remember this? I didn't agree. because I've been, unlike my radio spots, I do, I've been saying backup offensive tackle is probably their biggest hole in the roster right now, a third tackle. But, well, if I, if I dismissed you, I'm sorry, Joe.

I can do that sometimes when I'm done. I can be dismissive. So that's something I'm working on. But obviously, you did change my mind then. So, because I'm here saying, you know, their offensive lineups, an issue. Their starters are obviously probably top two in the league. Right, right. But if they have one injury, we're in trouble.

We're in trouble there. So now I think can they still perform at a high level with one injury? Sure. But we know Frank Ragnall's got chronic issues, Taylor Decker's in his 30s. Like there's there's potentially some issues here. So offensive line depth for me. I'll say receiver depth. I know that you're like you're in on Jameson.

And dude, I love Jameson coming out. I haven't seen enough to know. Yeah. Caleb Raymond is an ancillary piece. That's why receiver two and three, man. If I'm in Ross St. Brown goes down. His team's in trouble, man. even dude even if i am in on jamo i can sit there and say that they're thin your dpj is not

working out i don't think the way they thought like he's getting passed up by durese fountain on the depth chart yeah that's not good that's not good i mean phelton's having a great camp i don't want to take anything from him but like bro dpj you got to step up my man antwan green they had they had hopes for a big step he he's buried on the depth chart still like this for sure issues i would imagine any vet that gets cut in the next few weeks, they're scooping up. Like they just come be our wider seat before. Trade for Brandon Ayek. Yeah.

Well, they're actually, there was a couple day stretch where they were like the second favorite to land at you. And everyone was like, what? What's going on? I mean, I'd be, I'd be want to talk about it. I think Amun Ross St. Brown is the most important non-quarterback in the NFL, like just a value to their team. I agree.

I agree, I think. At least on the offensive side of the ball. The thing that's crazy, though, is I think Amon Ra has been banged up and missed a game or two each of the last two years. And they were kind of fine without them. The only game they really struggled was against New England in 2022. But other than that, like, they've been fine without Amonra. They should say. What they do?

They're going to run the ball with those backs. They're going to throw the ball to La Porta and scheme up shots down the field. Like, that's what they're going to do. Exactly. We don't think any team in the NFC South has a legit chance win the Super Bowl, but we both agree on the 49ers. I'm going to go first here with the 49ers. I, dude, I don't, I don't like their, I thought their offensive line was a big reason why they lost the Super Bowl last year. I think that the, this Shanahan tree in some ways, not necessarily Houston and not necessarily the Rams, but the 49ers and the dolphins iteration of this, they're very much, we just need hold your head above water offensive line play.

Like they don't care about it. They openly say it. You know, they think we can help with angles. We can help with scheme. We don't have to invest here. And I thought that that 49ers offensive line got big boyed by the chiefs in the Super Bowl. And they didn't do anything.

They didn't do anything. It's going to be the same offensive line. Maybe Dom Puney is a third round pick is going to find a role here. We'll see. I know there's been some hype there at training camp, and I like Pune. I like them a lot. But I still think that it has the same capacity to get big boyed against top tier defensive lines. in addition to, I don't think their defensive tackle situation is very good.

Yeah, detackle for me. I agree on O-line. I think the proof is in the pudding, though, where they have managed to be very successful, despite not caring a ton about O-line. Now, you're right, they did get big-boyed by the Chiefs. And so maybe when the games really matter, the O-line really starts a struggle. But D-Line for me, man, that's been a consistent issue of the last three years for them where they just can't stop the run.

And that room has gotten progressively worse over the years. question. Not only if they're just, it's not even that they're ignoring it. They're not even retaining players they had. So this is tough. They good pass rush on the interior, but really, you know, unstable run defense. And then you're in a conference where you got to play Philly in Detroit, two teams that will run the ball straight down your throat. I think that's, that's an issue for them making another long playoff run potentially. I said this last year, though, and then was obviously proven wrong, but I'm sticking with it. I think it got even worse this year. So we'll, we'll see. All right, so that's it for the NFC.

AFC, let's go to the Kansas City Chiefs. How? What's their Achilles heel, man? What is it? I'm going to say, you know, I was going to say pass rush depth, but I'm going to go and I'm going to alter and say cornerbacks, you know, minus legurious need. You know, I just out of their, out of their, after their CB1, I just don't see, you know, high level play here.

Does it matter? Well, I don't know. They're back-to-back Super Bowl champs, Joe. I mean, does it, does anything matter? No, it doesn't. But I thought, I think Spags just gets it out of the D.B. man. It doesn't matter. It's been a revolving door since he's walked in the building and it doesn't matter. The next guy up and they wind up being good. So whether it's Jalen Watson, Josh Williams, of course, Trent McDuffey, they're going to play Connor in the slot.

I mean, yeah, you look at it and you can derive the most questions. I get it. But I'll, to be different, I'll say, I will say edge rush. I really like George Karloftus and the strides he made from year one to year two. But Charles of Ennehue in the late season ACL and then counting on feeling Euseoma in year two to kind of step forward. I'll just say that to be different, but I don't know. It's the Chiefs world. We're all living in it. Is that painful to say? It is what it is.

They won three of the last five Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes has been to the AFC championship game every year as a starter. Like, I mean, they know how to turn it on. I mean, scows their way in the playoffs, man. They're a special team stuff. Their ability to just coast through the regular season. That's unbelievable. 15th scoring offense last year, Brett Whitefield.

15th. Dude, Mahomes was bad in fantasy football. Like, he was legitimately bad last year. and like playoffs hit and it's just, no, we're, we're taking the bag. It reminds me of late Patriots. 100%. Just coasts through the way.

Everyone's like, oh, is Tom Brady done? No, we're on to Cincinnati. We're going to win the Super. Like, what are we doing here? You know? So no team in the AFC South because Brett Whitefield doesn't believe in Houston. Baltimore. It's the passing game.

It's Lamar in the playoffs. Let's be honest about it. Yeah. When the passing production has to be there, Lamar has not delivered. And their interior, I mean, their offensive line is littered with questions. The whole thing's a question mark. outside of Tyler Windemore.

Littered with questions, I'll give you that. I will say similar to how we're giving Spags, the benefit of the doubt there with the cornerback room in Kansas City. I'm going to go, I'm going to say, I'm going to give them benefit of the doubt O line. They draft and develop really well. I think they'll piece it together. It will be fine.

But the receiving room, man, like if you want to see an uptick in Lamar Jackson's passing ability, especially come playoff time, they didn't do enough. They extended Rashad Bateman. They brought back Nelson Aguilar. I would like to have seen them go get a Brandon Iyuk, for example. I just signed Russell Gage. I mean, come on now.

Whoa, whoa. Former three and 30 player in Tampa Bay there. Right, right. That was the one year every single player got three and 30, every single freaking free agent. Was that the first big salary boom? Yes, it was like, here's three, everybody gets it. Jack Lawson, here's three years, 30 million. Jordan Phillips, you get that as well.

Russell L. Gage, sure, you ready to sign your name? Everybody gets it. Every single player got that. It was unbelievable. Yeah. But no, yeah, past catchers for me, man. That's, that's tough. Cincinnati Bengals.

Isn't it always their offensive line? It's always their offensive line. Yeah, I guess to an extent, what, Ameri's Mims, dude, have we talked to Marius Mims yet? A little bit. I think when we did the, the AFC North preview we did, but. I love Amarius Mims, man. That's, that's about, there's certain players that stand out to me at offensive line where I just couldn't stop watching their tape. Tyler Smith's one of them.

Amarius Mims is one of them. I really loved Dan Feeney in college was an absolute riot to watch. Kevin Jenkins was a riot to watch. Amarius Mims might be the most physically dominant offensive linemen I've ever watched. He certainly needs a lot of work in terms of experience getting some technique down. But physically, Amarius Mims is as gifted as you're going to find when it comes to offensive tackles. Yeah. I mean, the nice thing about Amarius Mims is college tape, too, is it only takes you about three minutes to watch.

Yeah, okay. There it is. Four games in 2022, four games in 2023. No, I mean, I like names. Wasn't he listed as the unofficial starter at right tackle too? Yeah. Well, Trent Browns, is he just practiced for like the first time this week or something. So that is interesting that he's, they're already kind of pushing him in there.

His tape was insanely fun to watch. I, I went into that thinking there's no way I like this guy. Zero chance. Four, four starts each of the last two years. I'm not going to like him. And then a lot of times those Georgia offensive linemen are a little raw too. No, man, he was, he was awesome. He was dominant force.

So, but I still think, you know, like, is Cordell Vosson a plus player? Is Alex Kappa a plus player at this point in his career? No, those are get by guys, right? Right, right. Those are. So it's like when push comes a. And Orlando Brown Jr. kind of stinks, too. Let's be honest. Yeah, he's definitely not. I don't know. Do you think he stinks? He's not as good as his pay his salary indicates.

Okay. That's fair. That's fair. It's funny because the, the chiefs kind of replaced him with Joanne Taylor, who's done the same thing. But. Right. Yeah, congratulations on two bad tackle contracts and just swapping guys around. Yep. Go ahead. Dude, I think I'm worried about Joe Burrow's supporting guests.

I know that Higgins and Chase are awesome, right? I get that. But Joe Burrow is coming back into this offense. And there's a lot of different things. Like Brian Callahan's gone. Joe Mixon is gone. Tyler Boyd's gone. Jonah Williams is gone.

We have, like Zach Moss and Chase Brown is our running back. Gaseki is the tight end with Sample and Hudson. This is the worst supporting cast Joe Burroughs had, and he's coming off of injury. I think that the Cincinnati bagels can win the Super Bowl. So hear me first say that. But secondly, there's plenty of questions here about how this all comes together, even though there is some stability. Yeah.

No, I don't know that I'd go that far. I think the receiving room is loaded, you know, Jamar and T, obviously. But they've also invested a lot into secondary players. Andre Yoschevoss and Jermaine Burton and try some of that to work out. Trenton's been reliable when he's played even. Made a few plays, yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, I feel good about the receiver room.

But yeah, offensive line, tight end is like, that's got to be the worst head end room in football. Running backs, mostly unproven guys. I know you're not a big Zach Moss guy. I think Chase Brown's perfect for that scheme, by the way, but still has to go prove it, you know, whether I think that or not. It's funny, though, we were mentioning a lot of talk on offense, but we haven't talked defensive line at all. Are you feeling okay with that?

Sheldon Rankin's replacing DJ Reader. No. B.J. Hill comes over. It's kind of a mess, right? Yeah, I think they're going to need Chris Jenkins to be a thing as a rookie. I think Cam Sample was a big hit to their defense. I think he's been a very good, like, rotational player, and that puts more on Miles Murphy, who didn't do much as a rookie as a first-round pick and Joseph Assai.

So I think it's good that they got Von Bell back. But obviously, there's also some transition here at corner. and you know what's what are they going to go to dj turner going to be the guy i like cincy but there's enough there that makes me a little bit nervous have you noticed that they don't evaluate defensive lineman well at all like every start every significant player they've had in the d line they've brought in via free agency hubbard or they did draft i drafted hubbard yeah hendricksson though is obviously the big one free agent signing b jill it's traded for him jr reader last year or last few years has been awesome but again free agent signing o's i has not worked

out. Zach Carter did not play well last. stinks. Yes, stinks. Miles Murphy looks like a big flop at this point. Obviously, physical gifting is there. We got to see him take a step forward, though. That's the thing about Edge too, Joe, is it's one of the most ready-made positions because it's like C-ball, chase ball. There's not, it's like you don't have a lot of keys. You don't have a lot of reads to make as an edge defender. It's literally, yeah, dude. I don't know, I played defensive end in high school, which is obviously not the NFL or even college.

but I remember I had a very good defensive line coach, and he said, there's only four things the offensive linemen can do. They're going to pass block, they're going to down block, they're going to drive block, or they're going to release to the second level. What are they going to do? This is what you do in respond. You rush the passer, you squeeze down, you look inside and the wrong arm, or you make

you get a hand on, don't give them a free release. That's all they can do. It's all they can do. So figure out how to respond to that and play, right? So bills, bills are the last team. For me, I need to see these past catchers come together. And with that said, I think the upside here is tremendous because I love Khalil Shakir. I love Keon Coleman.

But for me, that's what it is. I just got to see this collection of parts work out. Yeah, I'm going to go with what I think has been the bills, Achilles heel. And it's been defensive line play in the playoffs. Like, do they have a guy in this group that when they got to close out a game where, who's going to make the play? Who's going to dictate the protection schemes? Who's going to be able to win that one-on-one battle and make that game-changing play?

And I don't know that they have a Batman here. I think they have a bunch of Robbins. And does a bunch of Robbins equal one Batman? We'll find out. But that's what it comes down to me. Can these guys show up and make some plays when they need them most in the playoffs? That is fair. And I will defer to you on all things bills.

No, I think I think you have a valid talking point there. And I would put that high on my list as well. but I sort of wanted to be different. I continue to want to remind the world that I think the bill's defensive line needs to show up in big situations, but more so than they have. All right. This one comes from Seish, and I hope I said your name correctly. If I remember correctly, you were high on Puka.

I think that's maybe you, Brett Whitefield. Yes, sir. What late round sleeper is worth a second this year in Dynasty, which might look like an overpaid today, but will be worth it after the season. Yeah, so I was high on Puka. I had a second round grade on him coming to the draft. He goes day three, blows up. The rest of history.

The thing is, I didn't, like, as much as I liked this receiver class, most of the guys I like did go day one, day two. So I don't think there's maybe, like, I don't, for one, finding another Pookas hard in of itself. So I'll throw a name at you that I think is in consideration. Joe has a guy. I'll throw out Brendan Rice, who is not your guy, right, Joe? Not my guy. Brendan Rice, the Chargers, like, I thought the tape was much better than the sixth round, you know, great he got. He's a big body guy who has phenomenal route running tendencies.

The offense at USC also really did not play to his strengths. Like this is a prototype X receiver who most of the things he does well are scheduled routes, like timing, rhythm. He's going to run a really nice slant, a really nice dig over the middle. You know, he's going to, he can win 50, 50 balls, you know, go balls down the field, but that's not really his. thing. He's more of a crispy, big-framed route runner that you kind of want to get involved as your ex. Obviously, Caleb Williams didn't really run the offense that way. So I think he probably has a little more value. Now, listen, though, I'm not advising you to draft him with a second round pick and dynasty. I don't think you, like maybe fourth round pick and dynasty.

Do you think second round like second round rookie draft? That's got to be what we're talking about. Right. Yeah. Okay. So I would say fourth round rookie there. I don't know that there is. I think Joe's guy is probably the second rounder you want to. go with and I'll just throw it to you Joe. Yeah, I went with Javon Baker, which I guess is a buzzy name, but I like Javon Baker back when I watched him this winter to study him for the draft. So I really like him. And he certainly made headlines with, you know, the way he feels about where he was drafted. And he certainly made some big plays in training camp. But the opportunity is pretty wide open for the Patriots to, for someone to emerge as a high volume tariff.

target getter. And I just like so much of Javon Baker's game. And I think he's wired a certain way that inspires me. I think he meshes well with either Jacoby Brissette or Drake May whenever it becomes his opportunity. And I know that Jalyn Polk was the second round pick. And that's not nothing. But I'm just keeping an eye on Baker as kind of the player that emerges here. So he's my late round guy, if you will, to emerge at wide receiver. Well, if we're being honest, too, Javon Baker, like there's room for both Baker and Polk to be good because there's no, there's no one in that offense. Yeah, who's it going to pop Douglas or like, right, like both those guys. Tyquan Thornton. Yeah.

K.J. Osborne. I, yeah. All right. This next one here comes from Chris W. Who leads the Texans and targets and how do they fit on the field together? Of course, now with Stefan Diggs to go with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz is there. who gets the most targets. I have convictions about this. Do you? Yeah. I think it's comfortably. Comfortably, Nico Collins. Comfortable. Oh, okay. I agree. You were scaring me for a second. Did you think I was going to say Diggs? I thought you were. For a second. Split second, I thought you were going Diggs. I think Diggs will probably be second on the team in targets, but I still think this is Nico Collins show. And I think very peculiar to me that Diggs was able to somehow take a four-year $96 million deal and make it a one-year contract.

like to me he's I think Diggs is all about getting to Dallas that's what he wants to do and yeah I think that's what this is about but Nico Collins is a player they're committed to long term he came in you know last year and had the big year with C.J. Stroud

I mean unbelievable efficiency for a big play player big player receiver I think it's I still think it's his offense our new separation data that we've been teasing on the show now for what eight nine weeks? Nico Collins, among receivers that ran at least 300 routes last year,

Nico Collins ranked number two in the NFL in win rate percentage. So I'm just sticking there. I think you get open, you get targeted the most. So now that's to say, like tank dell is no slouch. Do you have, do you have Diggs data there? Yeah, Diggs finished the year 10th, actually. But if you look at the splits towards the end of the year, he really fell off. Like first half of the year, he was.

He was comfortably in the top five. First six games of the year, you're like, oh, my God. Yeah. Like, is he going to break the record for yards in a season? Right. Right, he was playing that well. So tank Dell also, like, if we moved the filter up to guys who ran less than 300 routes, tank Dell's in the mix top three as well.

So they got a collection of guys that I'll separate. And this is the part of the question I really like the most is how do these guys fit together? And I think it's pretty clear that you have your two outside receivers in, and Nico and Diggs, Nico being the more traditional X. and then Tank is going to be your slot speed guy. What I love about the mixture, though, Joe, is all three of these guys can play all three positions, right? We saw Nico play a big slot last year at times.

You know, you've seen Stefan do that in Buffalo time to time. And then Tank, he basically played on the outside most of last year. So I think that's interesting. Like all three of these guys are interchangeable parts, and it kind of gives them a really nice diverse skill set. I don't know that Diggs does the explosiveness anymore he once did, but Tank Dell certainly does. Niko is more of a big body

traditional X type and then Diggs is just your peer route runner. He plays bigger than his size as well though. So I love the collection of parts here. Mario says, excuse me, Mario says six and a half win over under for both the Vegas Raiders and the New York Giants.

Which of these teams is most likely to beat it? Oh, man. I mean, gosh, dang man. Both these teams are tough. I'm going to, that's a hard question. Great question for Mario. It is. I think To me, I immediately go to the Raiders because I think they're the better team, but their schedule is really hard. Yeah.

What's the path to seven wins for the Raiders? They got to win in, they got to beat the Chargers on the road in week one. They got to be Carolina at home. They got a doable, right? They got, of course, Denver, at Denver week five, they got to win that game. They got to beat Pittsburgh at home. That's four. They go into the Rams, no.

Kansas City, no. at Cincinnati, no, at Miami, no. They got a sweep Denver that gets you to five. At Kansas City, at Tampa, host the Falcons, Jaguars, at the Saints, play the Chargers to close it out. Like, they could beat any of those NFC South teams. I agree. They could all four of them, right?

They do. They can beat any of them. They get Denver twice. So you get three against the NFC South. Three against NFC South. Yeah, let's say they get three. So they get one against Denver. Four?

They could steal a game against the Chargers or the, the chiefs, right? Five. Yeah. I mean, they beat the chiefs last year. Oh, Jacksonville? Yeah, possible. Yeah. I'm not saying those are automatic losses for sure. Do they play the whole AFC South? No. Okay. It's just a one off. Yeah, Jacksonville is the only team they play in that division. Who's the other division they play then? They play the, hmm. They play the north, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, CINC, yeah. So that's not, that's not an easy schedule. Man, no. That's the problem. So then you get, what's the Giants path? I think the Giants are the worse or the worse or team.

I don't know if that's really weird. Fortunately, they get Washington a couple of times. They open with Minnesota. That's probably helpful. Yeah, they're going to go 0 and 4 against Philly and Dallas, though. They get Carolina. Okay. Dang it.

I feel like I have to go Giants, but I don't want to. I don't know, man. I'm going to lean into the Raiders because I think they're the better team. I'm going to throw the schedule aside. I think the Raiders. My gut was Raiders. I'll go Raiders. I think there's a pathway to five wins, clearly.

And then I think they steal a couple games from teams you don't expect necessarily. Jacksville, Kansas City, L.A. Shoot, they could beat the Chargers twice even. It's not like the Chargers are some powerhouse. So I think, I think I'm going Raiders here for sure. All right, we're both in line with the Vegas Raiders. All right, this one comes from Black Mamba 15, who says, I heard her report back on Kean Coleman.

I liked him even in college. Who do you like better? 10 team PPR. Keon Coleman, Christian Watson. Are these guys the lead wide receivers? Shakir and Buffalo and Green Bay has a bunch, is Wix, does Wix have a chance to be that guy?

So basically, Keon Coleman versus Christian Watson and fantasy. The question trails off all over the place. Right, yeah, questions and then layers to the question. I don't think, we'll just, I'll get the Green Bay thing out of the way.

I think Jaden Reed leads the team in targets, and that's with Christian Watson playing more games in the normally plays. I think Reed's skill set just lends to him being targeted more often. That doesn't mean Watson might not necessarily score, or more fantasy points. If he has the same touchdown luck he did as a rookie, perhaps, you know, he scores more fantasy points.

But I think Reed is probably their number one there. I don't really think Wix has a chance to be the number one. He's got a chance to push Watson for some time, maybe, time on the field. But I'm not doing that. And then the question, though, was about the bills. And I'll just defer to you on this. I think we have very different takes, but you're locked in on Shakur, right?

Well, yeah, I did spend last week with the bills at five training camp practices, so I got a chance to see this offense. And I was really impressed, not that Kean Coleman did anything that I wasn't expecting, because we know he has size, catch radius, hands, ball, skills, body control, all that stuff showed up. What got me excited was Josh Allen's willingness to throw him the ball in those types of situations. And kind of my concern has been the productive receivers with Josh Allen have been really different players. It's been Diggs, Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown. Those aren't players like Keon Coleman. And so I kind of wondered, you know, what type of appetite does Josh Allen have to just kind of put it in spots and trust a

receiver like that to go get it as opposed to, hey, I'm available, I'm open. There's nobody near me, throwing me the ball. You know, Josh, I've kind of always thought it's more of a visual player than a anticipatory player. So that was kind of my concern with how that comes together. But at least in practice, Josh is willing to kind of throw it in there and see if Keon can make some plays. And I feel like every day he's kind of made some plays that make you go, ooh, I do think the challenge is the presence of a Khalil Shakir, the presence of a Dalton Gade, the presence of a Curtis Samuel. I think that Keon Coleman is probably fourth or fifth on the team in targets.

Now, that could still mean 70 targets, but I don't know that there's going to be that much volume. I'd extend the same thing to Christian Watson, though. Right? like, oh, well, Jaden Reed's there. Oh, Luke Musgrave is there. Don Tavian Wix is going to have something to say about this. So I think it's two good players to kind of measure up. Maybe the guy that's been in the league for a few years, that's not 21 years old and a rookie. That's, I mean, maybe that's your tiebreaker. I think the long-term play here is Keon Coleman. I think that his path to becoming a high-volume player in Buffalo is pretty straightforward where, you know,

for Green Bay, they still got a lot to sort out in terms of who they're going to keep and how they're going to continue to approach this wide receiver position. I've seen more clips on X the past week of Kean and Coleman making plays than any other player in the league. It's been remarkable. I'll say this. I'm going to go Coleman here to answer the question officially. I'm going to go Coleman over Watson.

I tend to like both players, actually. But when you're swinging for upside, and I love the swing for upside wins fantasy championships, in my opinion. I think Coleman has a bigger path or a cleaner path to being the guy right now than Christian Watson does. And I know, like, I love Khalil Shakir as much as the next guy, but the guy had less than, how many catches did they have last year? 39. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, the sample size is still really small to say he'll be a target hog as much. Kincaid is a tight end. We know, you know, he's a, he's a big slot, whatever you want to call him. It's still, it's not, it's not a high volume position typically, even if he's the top of his position. It's not, it's not going to be a super high volume guy. And then Curtis Samuel, I just, I don't. think he's a threat at all. I think they drafted Keon Coleman

where they did because I felt like they had a clear vision for him in the offense. I'm going to go Keon Coleman. It might take a minute to get there. But at the end of the day, when you're in the fantasy championships in week, you know, playoffs, week 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, I think you're going to wish you had Keanu over Christian Watson. I bet you Curtis Samuel

and Kalosha Kier both have 20 more targets than Keon Coleman this year. Okay. How much, what do you want to bet? Let's do a friendly wager. I mean, that's pretty aggressive what I just said there. Yeah, it is. So you said both. So the both of them have 20 more targets in Kean Coleman. Yep.

What is the wager? Would you? Okay. So I think that, I don't even think you think that they both will have more. So I'm probably giving you too much by saying 20 more. No, no, Joe. I, I, I, I mean, I think more. I think one of them will probably have more targets in Kean Coleman.

And I think, okay, both. So you just, you want to keep it that simple? Both, both guys have more targets in Coleman at the end of the year? Yep. Okay. Now injuries, obviously, targets per game. Can we go targets per game to avoid the injury possibility? No. Because you think that they're going to get hurt. You think Curtis Sam was going to get hurt, which is not a bad thing to think. That's part of the calculation for sure. I'm not sure we're going to get anywhere with this, but that's how I feel. It's a friendly wager. Just, just plant your. Oh, friendly wager. Okay, here we go. Shake. Here's me shaking.

Well, there's got to be something on the line, though. We don't have to do dollars, but we can do. What can we do? So I think people are becoming very creative with punishments for finishing last in your fantasy league. I saw one yesterday that had me cracking up. So Luke Combs, I'm sure you know who that is, mega country star. His fantasy league, the last place team had to go sing a song at one of his concerts. Did you imagine just being like just a regular guy? And all of a sudden here's a, it was at where. whatever the Bengals Stadium is. I don't know the name of it. I'm sure it seats 50, 60, 70,000 people.

Whatever, Paul, I'm sure that's what it is called. Did you imagine? I mean, I know that you're pretty musically inclined, but I mean, man, I couldn't do it. I probably melt to sing. Now, they did okay. They had to sing walking, uh, walking in Memphis. Oh, anyways. What, I mean, that, that's a disaster. I had a music career to, to make you do this, but I don't. Right. So I don't, I mean, coming up with the terms of the deal could be challenging, but. But we'll come up with the terms off. Let us know. Let us know. If you have suggestions, let us know. That too. Let us know in the comments on Twitter slash YouTube.

We'll come back next week with terms of the deal of prepared. Okay. All right. Let's move on. All right. The next one here comes from Seish. Brett, you were very high on J.G. McCarthy during the draft process. I was as well. What do you think about him in the first year? Will he play a significant role in fantasy? what's his long-term outlook with the Vikings? I don't want to dismiss this question, Joe,

but we got into this very significantly in the NFC North episode. I will strongly encourage you to go back and listen to that. We previewed every division. Go find the NFC North one. I think it was two or three weeks ago. And then listen to what we have to say about that. In short, though, I'll say this. I think still high on McCarthy,

it doesn't surprise me they're going to play Darnold over him to start the season. I think eventually he takes over that job and he performs at a very high level. What his role in fantasy will, it'll be determined by how quickly he takes the starting job over from Donald. If that's week nine or whatever their by week is, then, you know, not a lot of fantasy significance, at least early on. But if he takes that job, say, week three, then, you know, you're talking about a potential, you know, late round stud for season long. With very few exceptions, first round quarterback start as rookies at some point, right? And I don't think Sam, Sam Darnold is going to stiff arm J.J. McCarthy for the entire season. I like the opportunity with Minnesota. I like the scheme. I don't know that I'd be counting on much this year.

Right. I don't, I don't think he's probably, he's not draftable and restart or redraft leagues. But the dynasty upside here is really exciting because of the offense, because of McCarthy's skill set. I mean, Justin Jefferson's locked in. I like, I like how they're building that offense. So not this year, but I think he has. has a really nice ceiling to be a high end. You know, I mean, not like, maybe not like your Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson level of fantasy quarterback, but one that you're not mad about being your QV one. Boom.

All right. Next one here. Besides Tennessee, which offense, and this comes, this is SESH as well. Sage gave us some great questions. Besides Tennessee, which offense might have the biggest change from bad to good offense? This is easily, you could just answer the teams that got the biggest, or biggest quarterback upgrades will go. Atlanta, the Jets, the bears.

Right. Those are the teams. I don't think it requires more analysis than quarterbacks. I'm not exactly sure why Tennessee is part of this conversation, but okay. Oh, dude, there's a lot of chatter about them being, like Will Levis apparently is having a great camp. I hope he is because I'm very concerned about the fit. Right. I am too. As I've detailed multiple times. I like Will Levis a ton.

I had him better prospect than Bryce Young. I mean, that's pretty obvious to me, but I don't know. Did you really? Dude, come on, man. You remember the conversations we had about Price Young? I do. I don't remember Levis. I don't remember you haven't levice ahead of them.

That's, that's wild. I mean, night and day in terms of physical upside. Well, for sure, for sure. Price Young, the number one pick. Get out of here. Besides Tennessee, which offense? Oh, we already did that one. We just did that.

So, yeah, Atlanta, Jets, Falcons, Bears, they certainly stand out. there's a ton of talk. This one comes from Coach Weller. There's a ton of talk about value when drafting based on ADP and projected points. How do you identify a player worth grabbing ahead of his ADP versus the highest current value on your draft board? Here's something you can do. Just have a take, you know? I know that's funny, but like, you know, I have guys I like. If I, all right. So the way I draft fantasy is I have tears. I use a tier system. So if I like a guy more, than ADP, then I'll just draft him where the player ahead of him in that tier is going via ADP. So like, good example. If there's a wide receiver split, and I like this guy, he's middle of this wide receiver tier for me. And his ADP is seventh round.

But there's guys with a higher ADP going in the sixth round, I'll just draft them in that six round slot because I want to make sure I get him. I think he's better anyways. I don't think ADP is ever the best measure to draft players anyways. is you got to eventually have a tag. I'd rather draft the guy I love than force a player I don't like based on ADP. It's probably not entirely what you wanted to hear, but simple. Just draft them earlier.

Yeah, I think it's who's skill set and opportunity do you believe in, right? Yep. That's who you should draft higher. All right. Purple Snake says Javante Williams has reportedly slimmed down this year. What's your take on losing weight versus gaining weight, especially for running backs? Any additional thoughts on how this Denver backfield plays out? This is easy, easy answer, Joe.

Pretty much like 90% of the time, losing weight is more beneficial to a player than gaining weight. So typically when you hear reports of a guy balked up, that's not a good thing. When you hear reports of a guy lost weight, that is a good thing. This is a game based on speed. And especially for skill players, you got to be fast. The faster you can move, the better you're typically going to be. Yeah, I share your thoughts there. I think one of the big things that I think is notable on weight fluctuation,

is adjusting to that different size, right? Like the way that you played the game at a certain weight might be different. You might have more quickness. You might have more mass. It changes. So as long as you're adjusting how you win based on it, I think that's probably the biggest curve. Yeah, don't do what the Cowboys had Mazzie Smith do.

Dude. Yeah, nightmare. I like Mazzie Smith, but they're ruining. They're ruining him, yes. All right, dude, that's going to do it. We did 15 cues, I believe. which was a lot. We rolled through. Thank you so much for the questions. Make sure you go to the YouTube channel. Click subscribe. It's fancy point. YouTube.com slash fantasy points. Subscribe. Notification bell on.

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