Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | NFL Awards Futures + AFC South Breakdown

Episode Date: May 30, 2024

Welcome to NFL First Read, where Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino dive deep into all things football. In this episode, join our expert hosts as they take a closer look at NFL Awards Futures on DraftKings. Expect insightful analysis, bold predictions, and maybe even a few surprises as Brett and Joe share a mutual pick for Coach of the Year that might just defy expectations.Later they dissect the AFC South, examining key players, recent developments, and the latest buzz from around the division. Whether you're a die-hard fan or just dipping your toes into the football waters, NFL First Read has something for everyone. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First read. We are your first read. This is a film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Lockdown and myself, CEOO of Fantasy Points. This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. If you are an audio-only partaker, we want you to get the best experience possible. This podcast does have a video element, so make sure you head over to the Fantasy Points YouTube page, click subscribe and turn notifications on. Joe, let's get after it. My friend, how are you today, sir? Brett Whitefield podcast number three. I mentioned last week, only 90, only 10% of podcasts, get this far. So we, I mean, we are just getting closer and closer to being a real thing, man. We're beating the odds. I like to beat the odds. I've been beating the odds my whole life, Joe.

Ooh. Oh, Brett, that's actually, that's an amazing segue. way because we're going to talk a lot about odds. We are. Yeah, because Adam Schaefter, I swear this dude, part of his yearly calendar, is to look at all of the landmarks in terms of okay, we're 100 days away from the draft, we're 50 days away from the draft, we're 100 days away from the start of the season. And he goes ahead and schedules the tweets for the whole year. So you know exactly when these things are going to happen. And so what was recently 100 days away, from kickoff for the 2024 NFL season, and that's going to inspire a lot of what we're going to do today on speculating over some of the big storylines in terms of the needle movers and wind totals and all that stuff going into this season.

Happy 100 days. Thank you. Yes. So the 100 day mark signifies both happiness in my soul, but also dread. Because when we get to the season, my life is flipped upside down. Yeah, your, your situation's not normal, man. Like, with the grading and charting that you do, I don't know how you do it, man. Like, I'm such a routine guy.

And the routine of the season is obviously a lot different than out of season. But your in and out of season routine is just, I can't even fathom it. Yeah, it's, it's crazy. It's day to day. Every day is a different routine. But like the week, the week repeats. So, like, inside of a week, it has a, routine so to speak but each day is different if that makes sense yeah i couldn't do it uh it's it's

different cat for 10 11 years now so we're we're we're getting used to it joe you're an animal you're an animal brett whitefield yeah well let's do this then let's let's dive into some draft king odds i know we have some breaking news the nico collins contract we'll get to that because we are doing a fc south later today so we'll get to nico collins for sure but for now i want to talk to you about draft King's odds as our happy 100-day conversation. Super Bowl favorites, Joe. Let's start there. I've wrote down eight, the top eight, and I think it's fascinating.

And I kind of want to know if you're buying or selling these teams or what you think, or if there's any lines that you like specifically. Obviously, at the top, we got KC plus 550. We got San Francisco plus 600, though. So they're looking just right off the top, looking for a repeat there. Baltimore plus 900 and Detroit plus 1,200. So Draft Kings thinks the same best four teams from last year are going to be the same for this year. Buffalo also at plus 1,200, Cincinnati at plus 1,300.

Houston, from number one overall favorite last year to plus 1,600 to be Super Bowl winners. Philadelphia plus 1,700. Those are the top eight, Joe. Has anything surprised you on that list? I'm not sure anything really surprises me, but I will say this. Teams don't often three p. Right. Like there's there's like a law of averages.

I am not going to doubt Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They have been unbelievable together. But just like law of averages, doesn't it say that probably not they're going to go three Pete for the last six Super Bowls? That's not a common thing. So I'm kind of like as much as I can see the path and I, if you're made me predict who's going to win the Super Bowl, I probably tell you the Chiefs. There's probably a case to be made that that's unlikely just based on law of averages.

I think I picked New England 15 consecutive years at one point, just because they're always the favorite. But I agree with you. It doesn't seem likely that this happens to me. I think you did name the Super Bowl champion. Like, I think it's one of those teams that you just said. Okay. And Detroit's kind of the team that I keep coming back to. Oh. I mean, the year-over-year continuity that they've been able to maintain with that coaching staff, while also improving their roster is, is nothing to thumb your nose at.

And I think their path in the NFC is, is pretty straightforward. Like the AFC is going to be a bloodbath once again with KC, with Baltimore, with Buffalo, with Joe Burrow, if he's healthy for Cincinnati, Houston's going to be a player in this, the Jets, the Dolphins. Like the list goes on and on and on.

Like in the NFC, okay, it's either the 49ers, the Lions, or the Packers. Like, are you really believing in any of those NFC East teams? Packers are not even listed here? right i'm just trying to think of like who's that team that can make noise in that should we really take the ram seriously with no kind of the issues that they have with their front seven i don't think so man what about dallas no no dude that's an uns that there's

not enough on that route we're going to get to the nFC east yeah um but i i feel like there's too many holes in that roster for me to take them seriously as like going to win the super bowl so i think about detroit's path i think about the continuity i don't know there's like a destiny component to them i i just I feel like, I feel like that might be the value play, in my opinion, at plus 1,200. I agree with you for sure. And not as a homer, like the odds plus 1,200. I mean, I'm getting, shoot, they were a play away from beating San Francisco last year.

Right. His odds are twice as bad or half as good at plus 600 in San Francisco. So, yeah, I like Detroit. I think the thing that really stands out, though, five AFC teams in the top seven. So like. Exactly. It's crazy. I mean, it's crazy.

So that bodes well for Detroit, obviously, because that means the path is clearly easier to get there. But from an odd standpoint, I don't know how you get away with putting five teams from the same conference in the top seven. Is there that much money coming in on these AFC teams? Well, I think that's an important thing to remind yourself of with lines, right? Is you're trying to drive revenue, right? And so I think for as much as you do look at this and think,

okay, these are the most likely teams. I think there's an intentionality behind the book to have it a certain way to drive money because, you know, they don't build, they don't build skyscrapers in these casinos with losing a bunch of money. So there's a big piece of that. I want to ask you about your Buffalo bills here because they're at plus 1,200 tied with Detroit a little bit ahead of Cincinnati. But before we do, we do have to take a short break. Joe, your Buffalo bills. What do you think there? to me, their roster has gone over some overturn.

Are they going to be as competitive as they have been? Are they the team to take down Kansas City? What do you think? I don't necessarily look at the bill's roster and have concerns that they don't have the capacity to be the same contending type team that they have been, right? I look at the exodus of talent, and I think someone that's a little overblown. I mean, Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis were not helpful for this team down the stretch last year. Treadavius White's been injured for the last three years.

Jordan Porter and Micah Hyde are not the guys they've been, right? They moved on from aging, expiring players. And I think in place of that, they have a good succession plans in place with younger, you know, maybe at this stage of their career, more dynamic options. And you saw the bills have this surge of young players step up last year in a James Cook and a Coliseachir and a Dalton Kincaid and Osiris Torrance and Christian Benford and Terrell Bernard. Well, there's just another list of players this coming year that I think is going to do it.

So I don't necessarily look at the Bill's roster and feel like there's an issue with the capacity to go do it. What I think it comes down to for the Bills is their defense has to show up against Kansas City or against Cincinnati in the playoffs. The Bills' defense in the regular season is terrific, super good. And against OK playoff teams in the playoffs, they're really good. But when they face Cincey or they face Kansas City, they can't get stops. And it's not about Josh Allen. When Josh Allen shows up in the postseason, this dude's unbelievable. in the postseason. It's not Josh Allen. It's can this defense show up? And can the defensive line

make the impact? Like, it can that's what I'm, that's what I'm thinking about. So capacity, yes, will the defense show up when it has to? That's to me the X factor with the bills and them, you know, reaching their potential or getting over the hump. You said something that I absolutely love. And I, because I love talking roster construction. I could talk roster construction all day. Like how do we put the best team on the field? You said succession, plan. And I think a lot of times media, especially big media, they're only looking at the NFL in each team from this big macro lens, right? So they see this excess of talent. But you have a micro lens on the bills, just like I have a micro lens on Detroit. I see the draft and develop plan. So like Detroit,

for example, they let Chaunceyarner Johnson go. I've seen multiple articles from national media. Well, who's replaced? Like this is a big loss. They didn't address safety. No, they drafted Ifie Malafandu three years ago. He's their plan at safety. Kirby Joseph the year after that. like there is a succession plan there. They're count. That's what they're counting on Jameson Williams. They let Josh Reynolds walk for a bag of balls. They could have kept them.

They chose not to because they believe in James and Williams. Same thing with the bills, I'm assuming is what you're saying here, where they've been, they take this draft and develop approach. They're not fixing everything through free agency. You know, Band-Aids, of course, here and there.

But ultimately, it's like they have a succession plan in place for a lot of these guys that have left, and that's what you're telling me. So that gives me more confidence in the bills than I probably had five minutes ago. Well, I'm glad I can inspire some confidence. Part of me, part of me feels pretty good that there's a lot of doubt for the bills because there hasn't been, right? Like the bills were supposed to win the Super Bowl the last three years and they didn't.

And I think once, like, I don't think you can help yourself, like as an analyst and you're perpetually saying, I think this is a year for the bills. They're going to get over the hump. Eventually, you're like, you know what, I'm out on the bills. I'm not doing this again, right? And now you got all the inspiration in the world that you needed that they had some roster turnover. to finally get off the bandwagon and to which I say good. Go ahead. Go ahead and sleep on Josh Allen and this Bill's football team.

And, you know, maybe it'll be nice to have a season where you're not supposed to go win the Super Bowl from day one. And there's, you know, the chip on your shoulder and there's doubt, right? I think the best teams in the history of the NFL, they do such a good job of manufacturing doubt. Dude, I can't tell you how many times I've watched Tom Brady, who voiced a Lombardi trophy over his head and saying, nobody thought we could do it. They said we couldn't do it. They wrote us off. Tom, are you kidding me? Nobody said that.

But you made yourself believe that. And therefore, like, the best athletes, the best teams, they can manufacture that doubt. And whether it's true or not, it doesn't matter. Can you convince yourself that it is true and elevate your performance? And I think that's what the best teams and best players do. That's so funny. I think so after Tom won five in New England, hit the sixth, or when he had the opportunity to win the sixth one, He put out a video on Instagram.

You have Tom Brady Productions. It was like a three minute long hype video about all the doubters writing off Tom Brady. Like, brother, you've won five Super Bowls. No one is writing you off. Right. But you're right. That's exactly. That's exactly right.

When quarterbacks can find a chip, that's usually when they play. Holmes does it too now, man. We watched him this past year. Like, brother, are you serious? Freaking Kelsey at the podium when he won the Lombardi and they handed to him, they doubt it us. They never thought we could do. Dude, nobody on planet Earth.

outed you. Not one person, but okay. In fact, this was inevitable, Travis. Yeah. You tell yourself what you need to tell yourself. Exactly. All right. So I don't want to put too much pressure on you to pick your team, but it's plus 1,200 fair for the bills. And I'm going, I got somewhere I'm going with this. I think there's pretty good value. The thing about the bills, right, is like beating Kansas City in the playoffs. They beat them the last three years in the regular season. Okay. And can we be honest about the last two playoff losses, the most recently in the divisional round and then 13 seconds. Those were as tight of football games as you can have. There's not a chasm or a gap between the two teams. The bills just needed to go their way.

Yep. And like Baltimore to me is a little crazy at plus 900. You want to talk about Exodus of talent. Let's talk about the Baltimore Ravens, new defensive coaching staff, all that they lost, the offensive line, plenty of question marks. Yeah. Like I know they got Derek Henry. Cool. That's great. When was the last time running back was the difference between a team winning the Super Bowl or not, watching the chiefs go out there win the Super Bowl with Isaac, Isaiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Halear and the bucks are winning it with Leonard Fournette. Like, come on, man.

Like I think that Baltimore is a team that we should probably have some more questions about than saying that this is a team with the second best odds in the AFC. I'm not sure they're going to win their division. I agree with that wholeheartedly. The reason I wanted to ask about Buffalo specifically is because right now, Joe, you can bet a Buffalo versus Detroit Super Bowl at plus five. thousand if you if you tell me you like detroit's odds and you believe in the bills that seems like a very good bet to me plus five thousand for two teams that we view might be likely to be in the super

the end the world deserves a bills lion super bowl like are you kidding me like somebody's going to win that game and you talk about two long suffering fan bases that i mean could the world handle that no the world couldn't handle and you know what it's funny is because the the the renaissance in detroit started versus Buffalo on Thanksgiving Day, like two years ago now. Detroit hung with them all the way to the end, and you guys won on the last second field goal. Remember that throw Stefan digs over the middle of the field? Oh, man.

Exactly. And everyone in Detroit's locker room says that was the game they realized that they could play. Like they were legit and they were ready to win. And they've not heard this yet. They won out after that game. Yeah. Wow. Yeah.

Glad that the Mills could wake up the sleeping giant of the Detroit Lions. Right. All right. Let's move on to other other props here or future bets, I guess we'll call them MVP. Now, it's funny because a lot of these correlate with the teams we see on the Super Bowl list, but Mahomes is the obvious guy at plus 600. Josh Allen plus 800. Joe Burrow at plus 900 with CJ Stroud also plus 900.

Lamar Jackson at plus 1,000. Jordan Love at plus 1,200. That one sticks out weird to me. Brock Purdy plus 1,200 and Jalen Hertz plus 1,500. You see a lot of running quarterbacks on here. which is funny because it is a stat award unfortunately but is it is it you can't tell me lamar jackson's the NFL MVP last year and then tell me that the NFL MVP award is a stat award because his stats were as mediocre as they could possibly be his passing stats sure were but he didn't have

a thousand yards rushing and 10 touchdowns brother are you kidding me like he was so far behind statistical production from josh allen it wasn't even close like couldn't touch him to me this is the award for the quarterback on the best regular season team that's probably a better way of putting it. Yeah, I think that's who wins this. Okay. So you just think team is best record. It has. Well, so here's the thing. There could be some teams of very good records with quarterbacks that don't have the like Jared Gough, for example. The lion's got the best record in the NFL. Is he going to put up a 5,000 yard 40 touchdown? Well, no, I think there has to be a, there has to be a statistical threshold, but also the quarterback on the best team.

All right. So who's so out of that list, I feel like Lamar at plus 1,000, because he has 1,2 is probably a good bet, even though we both agree that maybe shouldn't have won it last years. Right. I think the value here is in like a Jordan Love where I feel like, yeah, dude, like, I, you were surprised there, but like plus 1,200, I think the numbers are going to be there. I think the team's going to be pretty good. If they wind up winning the NFC North, which I think they have the capacity to do, I think his numbers are going to be outstanding. And I also think about Joe Burrow as well. Like if Joe Burroughs healthy, I think he can put up some monster numbers as well. But I don't know if you made me like find the best value. I'm not predicting Jordan

Love to win the MVP, but I like him at plus 1,200. Man. All right. I maybe that's the the lion's bias coming out of me. I just don't, I don't see that. I do he to me when I look at this list, everybody makes sense except for him. Like for to be in the top guy, like I'd rather have Jared Gough at plus 4,000, even though I think there's almost no chance he wins the MVP award. I think Jordan Love's got a way better chance than Jared Goff, and I think the world is Jerogoff. Jordan Love played 10 good football games. I know. I know.

He's young, man. He's going to, I think he's a stud. And I think if Josh Allen's has better interception luck, like that's that's what it comes down to, right? All of Josh Allen's interceptable balls got intercepted last year. If his interception numbers are better due to better interception luck, he's going to have the statistical case like he does every year. You don't think any of those were on Josh Allen? Oh, you so sorry. That's not what you said.

Yeah. I'm misinterpreted. No, they certainly were, but they don't have to pick off every single pass that's possible. You're right. Yeah, like his actual interceptions thrown compared to his turnover-worthy throws were about equal, where a lot of quarterbacks, like Brock Purdy, for example. Or CJ Stroud. Stroud was insanely lucky last year.

Yeah. So. All right. So you're a love guy. What about Brock Purdy at plus $1,200? I think that. I hate Brock Purdy, by the way. No, I put Tua and Brock Purdy in the same bucket.

I mean, Tua has been as statistically good of a quarterback as there is in the NFL over the last two years. There's always going to be an eyeball test there that tells you that's not the MVP. Okay, that's fair. But Miami, I don't think, is in contention to have the best record in the league or even close to it. What do they do? What if Miami wins 12 games?

Would you be that surprised? They won like 10 games every single year. If they won 12 plus games, I think he's probably got to get the 13 or 14 to have the best record. Really? Yeah, but you don't think. 12 wins with, I mean, he let the league in passing yards last year. Yeah. I think they're, there's a better off. They have a tight end this year and Smith. For them, right, you can say what you want about Johnny Smith. I think for them he makes sense. They have a wide receiver three

and Beckham to go with Hill and Waddle. You're three in the scheme with the running game. I mean, I mean, Tua could put up MVP numbers for sure. I think he did last year. He might, he might have the same restrictions Brock Hardy does where it's just when they get inside the 20, they run the ball. Christian McAfrey is going to score. 20 touchdowns, the combination of Moster A. Chan and the blind kid from Tennessee. But the best thing that Tua has going for him is Mike McDaniel sometimes gets away from the run in the red zone and he's chasing those passing stats. So if that continues, and, you know, the problem is to his limitations show up in that, you know, those restricted areas of the field,

right, where it requires more physical talent, whether it's mobility or arm talent, right? it's quicker. I'll concede you this. I like to at plus 2,200, way more than I like Jordan Love at plus 100. How about that? Oh, very, very interesting, Brett Whitefield. Well, we have more of the betting odds to dive into,

so be sure to stick with us. Coach of the year. This one's interesting because this list doesn't necessarily represent any other list. It's just completely random, in my opinion. Matt Eberfuss leads the charge at plus 900. That is wild to me. Jim Harbaugh also at plus 900. Those two guys, like, I don't know what we're looking for here for a coach of the year.

I guess Harbaugh makes a little sense because like if you can make the argument, if he does a quick turnaround in L.A., he gets Justin Herbert right. Yeah, okay, maybe he's coach of the year. He did what the other coaches couldn't. But Eber Flos? Yeah. So the way that coach of the year goes is it's the team that exceeds their preseason expectations. Like look at the recent winners of this.

Kevin Stafonsky last year, Brian Dayball, the year before that, to get, what, the Giants of nine wins with, like, the worst roster in football. Mike Rable the year before that, because, like, Derek Henry got hurt and they were still a playoff team. I think that's what it comes down to. That's why, like, who's last on the list, Andy Reed? Andy Reid, like, everyone expects them to go out there and win 14 games or whatever. So this is an award for the coach that does the most with the perceived least.

And so I think you look at Matt Eberfluse and you feel like, you know, they could have a big resurgence with Caleb Williams and their defense is better. And, you know, if they, if they, if you wins 10 or 11 games, then that might be enough. See, this is a, a cart or what came first, the chicken or the egg thing to me. Like if Chicago outperforms their expectations, to me, that's going to be more of a front office success because that's what they've had, a big injection of talent. It's not anything Iberfus did. If I'm looking at like coach of the year, I'm looking for a team that marginally improved

in personnel. and got significantly better um that's why the day ball one made sense that team was terrible and they he took him to nine wins i don't see the eboleu's thing personally um then you also have uh robert saula plus 1100 again that's another one doesn't make sense to me the expectations were high last year yeah because aaron rogers and all that he gets hurt they stink it is what it is well rogers is coming back this year so rogers is also the favorite for comeback player the year which we'll get to but like i don't i don't see why that makes robert saula awesome that makes aaron rogers awesome do you know who i like a lot and i don't i don't know where he is because

i can't find coach of the year um maybe it's just me i can tell you i like i think this is going to have some shock value to you no i like i like shane stike i knew it dig it yes plus 1600 dude like can we give this man a little bit more love they were i mean he had the right play call too gardner minchew missed Tyler Goodson on that last play, dude. They should have won the AFC South last year. And that team had problems, right? Like Anthony Richardson was hurt. Garnererner Minchu has to play a bunch.

Jonathan Taylor, like the focal point of their football team, everything was weird with him with the contract of the ankle to start the year. I mean, really, what was the receiver talent that they had outside of Michael Pittman, a rookie and Josh Downs? Braden Smith was injured all year at right tackle. Yeah. The whole cornerback room, and I'm not sure it's better right now, but that whole Isaiah Roger situation and, like,

drafting players in the fourth round that you thought were going to start, they get cut. I mean, tons of transition with their, with like Grover Stewart had weird stuff going on. Like that team was kind of a mess and they should have won the South and hosted a playoff game. I think that that team is loaded in the trenches. I think they have the best O line and D line in the division. Like if Anthony Richardson has a pulse and can stay healthy, dude, I think that team's a sleeping giant. Joe, not to mention Jalen Hertz forgot how to play football when Shane Steik and Lange. Bro, that's a great point.

Bro, like, that offense was so bad after Stuyken left. Like, they could not get their crap together. I think they, they blew like two teams out to start the year. Then their offense is bad the rest of the season. The Colts were top 10 in total offense last year. It's crazy. With all that. With Gardner Minshu.

He was a mess, dude. Yeah. Like Anthony Richardson can't be worse than Gardner Minshu last year. Now, the problem with Anthony Richardson's reps, right? He's been playing college, has, like, less than 100 passing attempts in the NFL, like, who freaking knows? But I have a level of Shane Steichen that he's going to figure it out. And now who's their backup quarterback now?

Joe Flacco. Right? Yep. Yeah, Steichen is definitely my favorite coach of the year pick for sure. He's plus 60. He's ninth among the coaches right now. And we'll get to a comeback player of the year, but Richardson's also my favorite comeback player of the year.

One other coach of the year candidate, though, that I want to get your opinion on because you live locally. And that's Dave Canales. Are we getting, Brett. What? Are we going to talk about Bryce Young? Are we going to do this? Plus 1,800.

Dave Canales, look what they've done. They've surrounded Young with talent. Come on. I love their offseason, Joe. I think it's one of the best off seasons in the league. I think they did. So shout out Dan Morgan. Getting the guards needed it.

That was an absolute mess last year. Wide outs too. Wide outs. I have so little confidence in Bryce Young. That's what it comes down to. I just don't believe in him. Had no business being the number one overall pick. As limited of a player as you're going to find to try to play quarterback in the NFL,

doesn't have athleticism, doesn't have armed talent. He's small, he plays on his tippy toes. The ball dies on him. He doesn't work the middle of the field. There's just way too many restrictions for me to believe that Bryce Young could be a meaningful starting quarterback in the NFL. And so for those reasons, I'm out on any idea that Dave Conallis is going to win this.

Now, if they're a respectable team, build a statue for Dave Conallis because he can get something out of Bryce Young. I just don't have a lot of optimism there. Listen, I love the fit. I get the doubt with Bryce Young. You and me were on an island, by the way. We both felt that way about Bryce coming out. All of a sudden, we have friends in this island.

We were crazy. We were crazy for doubting Bryce Young, Brett Whitefield. there were people on Twitter who they pulled the, you know, I'm smarter than you card. Like if you're, if you don't like Bryce Young as a number of overall pick, you're just a hot take artist searching for clicks. But like, like I just watched his tape and I projected it at the NFL and I didn't feel good about it. Sorry, that's what it came down to. You said something to me when we talked about Bryce Young that stuck. And I say I repeat it all the time on John Hanson's serious XM show.

He was the least spectacular player ever drafted number one overall. Least, yeah. No, least physically gifted. I just said it as well right here. Least physically gifted player. Sorry. Yeah. Ever drafted number one overall.

And it's so true. He was like and they traded up for that too, which is crazy. But despite that, we can try to write wrongs. And I think they're offseason with the guards, with the wideouts. They gave him a good running back in John Brooks. They drafted a tight end to go with Tommy Trembl that is good after the catch. It can work to see him a little bit. They gave him a play caller, Dave Canales, who's going to get him out of the pocket.

Try to get him in rhythm and throwing within some type of structure because Young's big issue at Alabama was he had the slowest trigger known to mankind. And that maybe not as slow as Kyler Murray, but close. And then he gets to Carolina where his offensive line can't hold up. And those guards, I mean, you can't have a slow trigger when you have bad guards, Joe. And he just got abused last year. And then wide receivers that couldn't separate. So I just love what they've done.

And I think there's a chance Carolina bounces back. They play in a really crappy division that there's opportunity there. If they won eight, nine games, I think you can make the argument, Dave Conallis is. is worthy of the award. Bryce Young has to take a major step. I think they, like you said, they have given him a chance based on what they've done in the offseason. To me, the defense is going to be big here.

Coach Overeo on the defense side of the ball. Where's the pass rush coming from? I mean, it's a big question that I have. Is Wanam and Clowny going to be able to be enough there? Can J.C. Horn stay healthy? Is Dane Jackson good enough as a CB2? You know, I mean, do they have enough at linebacker? is, you know, Josie Jewell has some time on task with the Vero, but like Shaq Thompson coming back from injury, I have questions about like all three levels of that defense. So I think I think you're counting on two major things coming together. That defense and then a player like Bryce Young having a pulse.

This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. So I got to point out, Bryce Young was ranked 28th among starting quarterbacks and accurate throw rate last year. That's not good, Joe. That's not good. So on top of a slow trigger. on top of being constantly putting himself in bad situations. He wasn't throwing the ball accurately either, which was the trait, Joe, that everyone hung their hat on. Most accurate quarterback in the draft. So. You go, because it's important to be mindful of repeatable mechanics. You can't play the game. You can't play the quarterback position from your tippy toes and be able to find

consistent throwing platforms to get the ball out on time and drive the ball with consistency with the zip necessary to not let it die on you and not allow the coverage to invade the catch point. I just see too many problems. man. All right. Not for me. Not for me. Not for you. Okay. All right. Comeback player of the year. I got four candidates at the top that I think all make the most sense. Aaron Rogers plus 125. So many core backs here. Yeah, go ahead. Joe Burrow plus 200. Kurt Cousins plus 500. Anthony Richardson plus 600. We could entertain other guys, Joe, but the reality is one of these four dudes is probably winning it because they're going to start every game. They're going to rack up a pile of stats.

All four of those guys are good players too. I think Richardson at plus 600 is my favorite bet, because I think with the rush, you know, accumulating stats is important for this award with the rushing upside there. Now, the one downside is there's a chance he gets hurt again because of the way he plays. Yeah, he's going to have to get that figured out. Dude, you can make a case for all these quarterbacks. I mean, Russell Wilson, what if he has a good year? That's not happening. We, I'm unlikely there, but like Rogers, Burrow cousins, whichever one has the best season out of those three is your comeback player of the year. Yep, I agree. I think Burrow, plus two,

It sounds crazy because it's only plus 200. That's not a terrible bet, man. Would that make him a two-time comeback player of the year winner? Oh, I think it would. I don't know if that's ever happened, but. You won in 21, right? Or was it 22? 21.

I feel like he did this. Yeah. Yeah, 21. He was the comeback player of the year. That's not a good place to be 21 and 24 comeback player of year. That's a deal with Joe Burrow, man. He's had something every year. injury-wise. If he can be healthy, that's a different football team. Two dark horses I'll throw at you, and then we'll just move on from the whole draft

Kings betting thing in general. But Justin Herbert plus 2,500. If Jim Harbaugh is a coach of the year candidate, they think he's the favorite. To me, that says Herbert is automatically a comeback player of the year candidate. He was also hurt. I know he played half the season at least, so. That probably works against him. Yep, that probably works against him a little bit. But if he has a great season, you never know. And then the other one would be Justin Fields. at plus 3,500, because he is cast off. Russell Wilson is bad. There's a chance, and I don't like,

I'm not a field's guy at all, never have been. However, there's a chance if Justin Fields finds his way out of that football field, he will be better, significantly better than Russell Wilson. Yeah. And it could probably accumulate enough stats to get that done. And that's a good roster too, or not a good roster, but a competitive roster. So I think there's, you know, the cupboard won't be bare for him. But that was fun.

Yeah, that was fun. What's going to be fun is the AFC South. Probably, I mean, that division was unbelievably competitive last year with Jacksonville starting eight and three and then the bottom falls out. You get Houston and the young team and the surge that they went on to win the division. Meanwhile, we already referenced that Indianapolis was a play away from winning that division. And then you have a really new look team here with the Tennessee Titans. And so excited to break this group down with.

you and I would like to start with the reigning division champion, the Houston Texans, that have really gone all in on supporting C.J. Stroud trading for Stefan Diggs, paying Nico Collins, tanked Dell, they trade for Joe Mixin. They revamped their defense, right? I mean, like getting Daniel Hunter and swapping out John Granard and Aziz Al Shere at linebacker, like this team has added a lot. And so when you think about Houston, Brett, are you buying in on them as as the class of this division and the next upstart team? Or is there a cautionary tale for us to learn based on Jacksonville,

kind of being in a similar spot coming out of 2022 and then not being able to meet those expectations, right? It's a little bit different when you are now the expected team, right? you're the you're the hunted not necessarily the hunter and i thought we saw it like in that baltimore playoff game i think you saw some of the young team warts with houston how do you like them in terms of entering this season when i so i've wanted to take pause with the houston texas this entire offseason it wasn't until this exercise where i really got into the roster and was like man as much as i want to to like pump the brakes and have that cautionary tail i just don't know

that I can because I think they're solid in the right places. Like offensive line, good, very good even. Defensive line, good, very good even. To me, that matters so much. You've good quarterback play, presumably better quarterback play, even if CJ Stroud takes a little bit of step forward and develops. Good offensive line, good defensive line. It's hard to lose a lot of football games when you do those three things well.

Like, it's very hard to lose a lot of football games and you do those three things well. they're loaded at receiver. The only real question mark I have is they're secondary. And I think they've made attempts to address that. Bringing in, you know, Jeff Akuta, Kamari Lasseter, Kaelin Bullock, like they've thrown some resources there. It's not perfect. It's probably the weak spot of their team.

But I don't know. I think they are the repeat division champions here. I think they are the repeat division champions, but I think I have more concerns than you do. So let me outline those for you and see if we align. You mentioned the offensive line. I think it does have the potential to be a very, very good unit. But the depth of this unit was really stressed last year.

And I think you have a known commodity in Tunsel at left tackle. I like what you have in Shaq Mason at right guard. I'm willing to say that the rest of it is a question mark. With Kenyon Green, he didn't play last year. I have a bench player, yeah. Shaky player as a rookie as like a 13th overall pick. And he missed all of last season. I don't, I'm not super high on juice scrugs or Jared Patterson at center.

I think that either one of them would be a player I would want to upgrade. And then Titus Howard injuries have been an issue there. He's hopefully back to right tackle. But that Blake Fisher pick was kind of curious to me, like pretty early to take a tackle. When you just paid Howard, you have tonsil, you know, Charlie Hexpan, an important debt player for you for a number of years. And now you bring in Blake Fisher to the mix. Is Howard going to go play left guard?

Do you like Kenyon Green? I think that we got to figure this out. Potential to be a very good unit. I think I have a little bit more in the way of questions. For the defensive line, I like it. I think your interior depth leaves something to be desired. Tim Saddle and Mario Edwards, you're going to rotate. We know they're going to rotate.

This team has a good pair of starters in Fadikasi and Autry. I think those are good starters, but I still think you have a large percentage of snaps that's going to be taken up by maybe, maybe a good debt player in Edwards and a replacement level guy in Tim Settle. Then I mean, the other corner spot like Stingley, if he's healthy, he's awesome. Right. What we've watched this guy for the last four years. Injuries have really been a problem.

Technically, we haven't really watched him because he has. Well, yeah, that's kind of the issue. I mean, what he was last year when he was healthy down the stretch was unbelievable. But I have, I have no recent history that says that he's going to be healthy. And I think if Des King can be the slot and Camari Lasseter can be a thing as the other outside corner, all right, I can I can roll with that. But like, Jeff Acuta and C.J. Henderson, I'm out, man. I'm out on those guys. So, like, either Camarie Lasseter has to be a thing or we better go sign Xavier and Howard or Adori Jackson or Stephen Gilmore. Like, there's good corners out there to be signed. We got to get one here. Is Nelson still unsigned? Yes, dude.

Like somebody's got to put them back. That's who played the other corner spot for them last year, right? Yeah, man. Yeah, I'd bring them back. So I hear you, but I'm also, I'm also a little concerned about D-line depth, this offensive line, and that other corner spot. Again, I started that by saying I think that they win the division. But also, how do they play from that vantage point of expectations?

And there are expectations on this team. Let me hit O-line rebuttal here. So I think I think just way more favorably about these guys than you. so the beats do think Titus Howard slides at left guard, by the way. That's been made apparent through the OTAs here that he's going to be the left. So Fisher at right tackle? What are we doing at right tackle? Kenyon Green's to the bench.

Kenyon Green to the bench. Kendrick Green on the bench. Those are your backup guards. Juice Scruggs at center. I don't have as big of an issue with him as you do. Probably for this scheme. He's fine. He was overdrafted.

I'll give you that. I'll say that. Second round, I was absurd. I mean, absolutely crazy. But I thought he was functional for them last year. where he excels to picking up stunts, delays. Those are really tough for centers. And honestly, that's what you really want in pass protection.

And this team is designed to throw the ball. They do not run the football well. So I'll give you this. Their O line is not a good run blocking unit. I think they were near the bottom of the league in yards before contact per attempt, which is mostly an O line stat. But like Joe Mixing in this scheme, though? Like Joe Mixing, you're talking what?

Yes. Wide zone and like being decisive, that's going to be important for him here. better in the scheme than Singletary and Damien Pierce, no question. I wouldn't be shocked if they unloaded Pierce at some point here. He does not fit the scheme. Bobby Sloics even said that in interviews. We got this guy we really like, we doesn't really fit our scheme. It's like, well, either trade him or change the scheme, I guess.

But, yeah, I just, the running the ball stuff is not a huge issue for me, though. I don't think it's super valuable when you can throw it like they can. Their pressure rate last year was 34.9% allowed. That's despite the fact that C.D. Stroud's time to throw is 2.76, which is very high number. Well, what are the pressure to sack ratios on Stroud? High, right? Yes.

Yeah, pretty high. Well, early in the year, not so much as the year went on. That started to catch up to him a little bit. I think their pressure rate over expectation was really close to zero. So, like, the O line is playing well. And from a past protective standpoint, it is most of the pressure is a Stroud issue. So I think if he can clean that up a little bit, take a little bit step forward. This was one of his issues at Ohio State.

though, Joe. I mean, like he, you know, undeniably locked in to his number one guy and then kind of froze when he, you know, had to deal with pressure after that. So, um, hopefully he can clean that up for their sake. But so I feel comfortable with their own line. I think when you look around the league, there's a lot of really bad offensive line units. I don't think they're one of them. Are they top 10? Probably not. But they're probably somewhere between 10 and 15 for me, which is, yeah, I think that's fine. That's fine. Yeah, I just, I'm cautious about saying that this is like one of the best offensive lines in football. I think some people might look at it like that.

Yeah, I think I can agree with that sentiment. So we've never seen Tedd's how we play left guard either. So that's, I think his best football is comment right tackle. And so I'm like, I'm a little. And we've given up on Kenyon Green. Like is that, that's what this is telling me. Yeah, 22, first round pick, right?

Like a 13th overall pick or something like that. Crazy. D-line, though, I'll grant you this. They have no depth. Like, it's not even a, like, there's not even a little bit of depth. Mario Edwards is a dude who just can't play anymore. Barnett was kind of good for them down the stretch, right? They brought him back at the edge.

He's probably a fine backup if he doesn't have to play a lot of snaps. He's just not very gifted player. Technically sound, not gifted, though. Tim settles their starting nose and base, right? Like he's going to be. Fadikasi's got to be the starter there. He's 290 pounds. No, Fadikasi's like 330.

Is there multiple Fadukasi's? Am I thinking? No, I think you're, you got to miss. calculation here. Bada Kasi's a tank, man. Is he? Okay. Yeah, he's, he's, wait a minute. Am I wrong about this? No, he's 320 pounds. This is a nose tackle through and through. Okay. All right. I'm, I was thinking he was more of, uh, you know, three technique type guy. All right. Well, so Autry gives you the three technique, but yeah, anyways, they don't have any interior pass rush after Autry. Like, I know people like Mario Edwards. I'm not one of them. So you're right. There's, there's no depth. Will Anderson and Deniel Hunter could raise hell on the league if they're healthy, but they're going to be playing 800 plus snaps. That's usually when these guys start to break down, man. Yeah. So I don't, I don't love that. So I think you, I think you, you make some good points for sure. I'm going to stand firm on the O line, though. All right, the Houston Texans, we've talked about them at length, some good debates there. We're going to shift our attention

to the Jacksonville Jaguars on the other side of it. So be sure to stick with us. All right, Brett Whitefield, the Jaguars, the big comeback win in the playoffs over the chargers, they really took you know, Kansas City to the brink in the division around. Expectations are high. We start eight and three, and then we collapse in a big way. And don't even make the postseason. Jacksonville, I think, has done a good job of kind of reinforcing their interior offensive line, which I like a ton.

They got some different things going on at wide receiver. Eric Armstead added to this interior defensive line. What's your kind of prevailing thought when you consider Jacksonville entering 2024 that they just had the most Trent bulky offseason of all time yeah i mean like you can pick who they're going to draft every year so easily just because it's he's only scouts traits film doesn't even really matter it's like what are your measurables and can you put it together eventually so we knew they needed a receiver we knew they're going to draft brian thomas junior i think anyone that did a mock draft challenge got that one right yeah so

that's kind of funny but yeah traits you receive i like brian thomas junior it just was very obvious he was the pick he brings in eric armstead former the guy you know he drafted him in san mcisco i believe um gave davis another kind of traitsy poor man's brian thomas junior mason smith in the second round he had to have him he had to have traits right traits right like talk about a guy with bad tape this guy bad bad tape yeah but he's tratesy you know de tackle going to play a little bit maybe i don't know i just i did not love their off season um i I, you know, you probably, you signed a worst player in Gabe Davis. You let Calvin Ridley walk out the front door over, it sounds like a million dollars or something.

Yeah. Like, seriously. Um, I probably would have, I would have liked this off season a lot more if they came back with Brian Thomas Jr. and Calvin Ridley with Christian Kirk. That would have been a really nice core. I don't, and we've already hit the Gabe David. We've smashed him into the ground. So we don't got to really do that.

But I just didn't love their off season. And I think Trevor Lawrence is teetering towards coach killer territory at this point. Ooh. Um, what I did like. about their offseason and I think this kind of started kind of last year. I like where this offensive line is right now compared to last year at this time. Where last year you look at it and Cam Robinson had the suspension. So you're kind of forcing in Anton Harris and Walker Little is one of your projected starters. And then on the interior relying on like Ben Barch and Luke Fortner,

you have corrected a lot of that. You know, you're done. Luke Fortner is on the bench. You brought in Mitch Moore, so I think elevates that center position in a big way. And then you traded for Ezra Cleveland, which gets you out of this Ben Barch, Tyler Shatley problem that you had at left guard slash Walker Little who couldn't stay healthy. You trade for Ezra Cleveland, you pay him. I think you've elevated the floor of this offensive line in a big way with those two guys, not to mention Anton Harrison now in his second season where you'd like to think that there's going to be some growth. That's probably my favorite thing about what's happened here for Jacksonville with this offensive line or what with this team really coming into this

season. And I'm excited about Christian Kirk being healthy as well. I'm kind of in on Christian Kirk as a very meaningful piece of this offense. And so do I have questions about Brian Thomas? Yeah, I absolutely do. Do I have questions about Gabe Davis? Oh, yeah, you better believe it. But I still think you can look at Christian Kirk and Evan Ingraham and Travis Etonn is kind of your catalyst for this offense with what I believe to be a better offensive line. Year three for Trevor Lawrence with Doug Peterson. It's like, all right, let's do it. Let's do it. Right. I feel like there's, I don't at this group right now and feel like there's excuses to be made for Trevor Lawrence not having what he needs to be successful. The guy's got to play better situational football. This was a mediocre

team on third down, being mediocre team in the red zone. He fumbles a ton like more than any other player in the world. And he has like at the worst possible times, I think that's where, that's where I'm looking for for this team is picking on the offensive side of the football. It's better situational football. And I think before this offensive line is improved. I think you have enough in the playmakers, even despite some of the questions. where you made investments, for me to feel like, all right, you got what you need to be whatever you think you can be. Let me throw these two stats at you from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. 0.94 adjusted yards before contact per carry, worst than the NFL last year.

Wow. Time to pressure of 2.42 seconds, third worst in the NFL last year. Do you think they improved their offensive line enough to overcome those two things? Because that's a huge deal. Those are some bad numbers. Yeah, I think if Mitch Morse has a strength, it's past protection. I think he elevates Luke Fortner. I mean, a full season of Ezra Cleveland, all these guys having an offseason to work together. I mean, I have some concerns here.

I mean, with aging players and Robinson, Morrison, Sheriff. I mean, Sheriff's not what he was. But, yeah, I think that's the question mark. And I'm hopeful for Jacksonville that that does improve, but those are very concerning numbers. For what it's worth, I write down strengths and weakness of every team when I'm breaking down the roster. I wrote down O.L. question mark as a strength. And then a weakness is I wrote, oh, well, question mark. Right. I don't know. I don't know. It's somewhere in between on that. I do, I do see your point. Mitch Morris is a, you know, we always talk about getting your

offensive line back to average, right? You can get average play from everybody. Mitch Morris is definitely a move in that direction. If you can get a little bit more out of Cleveland this year, and Anton Harrison does take that step forward, maybe this unit can piece it together. I'm a little skeptical though but um for me d line is a big issue were you at on that i i would i would say that i would agree with you when it comes to the depth of the defensive line i mean josh allen travon walker i think it's a good pair of edge rushers and i really kind of like Travis gibson uh as a third guy and then for the interior eric armstead and roy robertson harrison's a good pair and then from there i think you you're going to need devon hamilton and the mason smith to be things

for you because I don't love the debt, but I think their starters are pretty good plus Travis Gibson. To me, the question with the defense is cornerback too. And I also think Tyson Campbell, like I thought Tyson Campbell two years ago was better than he was last year. So contract year for him, that's going to be really important. But then are we rolling with Ronald Darby? I think if Ronald Darby was your third outside corner slash spot starter, all right, I'm good with that, but like, as your guy? Yep. I think the same conversation we had about Houston in terms of other corner, go sign one of these guys, man, that's out there and elevate what you can get out of that spot. Because I really kind of like the safety thing with Cisco and Antonio Johnson

and Darnell Savage. And I think between those three guys, they'll have their slot figured out and their deep safeties. I like all that. But this cornerback two spot is a major concern for me. And interior defensive line depth. To your point, I mean, I love Savage in the slot. I think that's who ends up playing slot for them. But Johnson, Cisco is a nice pair of safeties. Yeah. And then I do like Tyson. I think one of the things that's hurting him is D-Line didn't get a ton of pressure last year. Plus, his running mate, Darius Williams battled injury. And I don't know, it's, it's tough when you have holes in your secondary. It just kind of feels like the whole thing falls apart. Man, I don't, gosh, that, I'm just looking at their offseason and it bothers me the more

I look at it, right? So they had an opportunity to elevate the roster. And they draft just in the first three rounds, Brian Thomas Jr., Mason Smith, Jerry & Jones. I love the draft and develop plan. There's a chance none of those guys make an impact this year. I wouldn't be surprised either. They need Brian Thomas to. Yeah, they do, but is he ready to roll? Like, to me, he's great on the vertical route tree, but that's what you signed

Gabe Davis to do. Can he help you in the middle of the field? Can he help you be a possession type receiver that you can target 120 times? Because that's what they need. Oh, I think your 100 target guys are Kirk and Ingram, right? Like, that's and I think then you probably have Gabe Davis. about 70, 75 targets. And then Brian Thomas, to me, to me for Brian Thomas, it comes down to how much can

he develop as a route runner, right? Because we know we can run in a straight line fast and get behind people. Like, congratulations, you're very good at that. Yeah. Can you do anything else? Right. We got to find out. I think he can.

I just not sure it happens this year. Right. By the way, with as bad as they ran the ball last year, they have to throw it a lot. So I think you're, you know, it's easy to say Kirk and Ingram will be the 100 target guys. they might need a third hundred target plus guy. Wow. So I'm, yeah, I'm a little concerned here. All right. So, sorry, before we move on, if they have another season like they did last year, does Doug Peterson get fired? Yes or no. Do you feel like this team's shown some level of patience with coaches with like how long the leash was for Gus Bradley? And, and I worry, I worry about doing that.

I mean, if they bottom out, if they win like five, six games, then yeah, we're probably got to go in a different direction, but like. Let's say they finish third in the division. What if they win nine games in finish third in division? They could win 10 games to finish third in that division. Really? Yeah, I think so. This was considered the worst in football last year and then look what happened. Well, that's why you play the games.

That's why you. I mean, this was the most competitive division that we saw. That's good point. I mean, if they bottom out, I think he's done. But so much of what you have built as a football team is for Doug Peterson. Like, I would be nervous about tearing it down. I mean, are you going to pay Trevor Lawrence now? they might.

Sounds like there's some momentum there. I think the thing that bugs me is Peterson's making the same mistakes he made in Philly, where he's extraordinarily loyal to his people. Now, listen, that's a great trait in life to be loyal, obviously. But Press Taylor, not a good play caller. He's really struggled. I think this offseason was the year to make a move there. And now by the time he gets a chance to rectify that,

it might be too late. It might be too late. So that's my only concern. He did the same exact thing in Philadelphia. with press taylor actually so and as we've seen attrition to doug peterson's coaching staffs i think that's where they've started to kind of like fall off i mean go back to 17 and he had frank rike and uh de philippo and press taylor and all in all these guys and like you felt like the the combination of all of them was able

to make that a very good situational football team but as there was attrition it became more about thug peterson you're like i don't know um so but i i mean i would be concerned that if across, I mean, from year one to year two, I don't feel like we took a step. So if you're not, if you're not getting back in a good direction, I think it's fair to ask the question, but will Jacksonville do it? I think that's kind of another story. We kind of already raved about the Indianapolis Colts and what we think of Shane Steichen and what this team accomplished last year being a playaway from hosting a playoff game and all the injuries that they had. Now, they had kind of a quiet off season. I mean, they had a lot

the cap space. Pretty much this is what they did. They signed Joe Flacco to be the backup quarterback. They signed Rayquan Davis to kind of a kind of a crazy deal to be a backup nose tackle. And then they drafted players. That's that's what they did. They brought back Julian Blackman. They just reigned all their players, added Rayquan Davis and Joe Flacko and drafted guys. That was the offseason for Chris Ballard. And I think if you, if you just look at this from a casual perspective and say, well, the Colts were third in this division. And They got these young quarterback and Anthony Richardson, why didn't they do more? You might be like, all right, yeah, that's a fair question.

But when you really kind of dive into it, I think there's probably a pretty good case to be like, yeah, let's kind of keep this together. Let's get healthy. Let's get to year two in our scheme and see if we can make some noise in this division. I think they're the sleeping giant in this division. I love the way you frame that. I think when you're a team that drafts really well, it's important to keep your guys. They re-signed a lot of their guys. Kudos to them.

the Rayquan Davis signing actually makes a ton of sense when you look at the way the season ended for indie last 10 games of the year Joe they could not stop the run they were horrendous as a season on the whole 1.7 yards adjusted yards before contact per carry meaning running backs are basically getting to like almost two yards before they were ever touched and every carry the last 10 weeks of the season that was way worse than that like it made sense for them to go pay up for a nose tackle a backup nose tackle even because they need to prioritize stopping the run it really hurt them down the stretch so i like that and i i agree like they have they have good depth they got the best defensive player in the draft to me lay out too late lay out to lay to um i wasn't a huge ad mitchell guy but he's so perfect for the the stiking scheme yeah yeah um and they're basically replacing alec pierce who was a glorified runoff man just run just run just run deep nines will know never throw you the ball, but just do it and clear it out for Pitman and downs. And I thought the contract they got Pittman on was a pretty good one.

When you look, especially we'll talk Nico Collins in a minute, but Nico came in getting paid more than Michael Pittman Jr. on a significantly worse resume. So there's, I thought that was a real team friendly deal they got with Pittman Jr. Considering the rest of the receiver market. So I like everything about this team. Trenches are stacked. I think this is the best O line, the best D line in the division. their their defensive end depth is insane

Samson, Ebukom, like first of all, here's your flowers, you're a good football player. I don't think people talk enough about him. And then opposite of him, Quiti Pei, Deo Adi Yingo has really come along as a rotational player, not to mention Taekwon Lewis. Oh, by the way, we just drafted late Toulato in the first round. I mean, that's an insane edge rush situation.

Maybe they don't have a Miles Garrett or a Nick Bosa, but one through five, man, that's insane. Bodies, fresh bodies, too. Dude, yes, big fan of it. I love this linebacker, para Franklin, and speed. My questions for this team come at Corner. Yep. Do we have a starter at Outside Corner?

We're going to try Juju Brent's, and we're only going to be able to play press cover three because can't do anything else. Dallas Flowers on the other side. What are we doing that? What are we doing? It's the one miss of their offseason. They didn't address Corner.

They still can. They still can. Damien Howard, Stefan Gilmore, Dory Jackson, Stephen Lowe, sign these guys. Sign both, sign two of them. It feels like the delay at this point is on the players now, right? They're waiting for training camp to happen, kind of see where the depth charts are shaking out.

I'm looking at this one right now, and I'm getting wide-eyed because I'm going to be a starter right away and I can get $10 million a season. Like, what are we doing here? Right. Unless it ended really bad with Stefan Gilmore, I know they did trade him to Dallas. It seems like that'd just be natural.

He's already played there with them. I can't believe. I cannot believe they're farting around with this right now. The other thing is Jonathan Taylor, you cannot get hurt. Correct. They have zero behind him. Evan Hall and Tyler Goodson, man. Come on.

And Zach Moss was led the team in rushing last year. So, and I mean, Jonathan Taylor, we know he has the capable of being like the best running back in football. But he's had two kind of like not what he was his first two season years the last two years. He can't get hurt this year. I actually, I said this on guru in the morning this morning, actually, Joe. I think last half of Jonathan Taylor season last year, he actually put out his best tape in the league. I know the stats didn't say that.

Even some of the advanced data points weren't all tilted in his favor. Some of them were, however, but I thought the tape was excellent. The vision is really improved. The burst looked really good. It looked back. He was relying less on explosive runs because that was his big thing. That big year he had the 1800-yard year. It was like all-explosive runs.

If he didn't hit a 40-plus-yard run in a game, His stat line was garbage, like not good, even with a good offensive line. So I really do think he put on some good tape last year. I really liked what I saw. So I do think there's a big monster year coming for him if he can stay healthy, obviously, but they have nothing behind him. It's kind of scary. Corner, we got to get that figured out.

Two other X factors for me real quick. Jolani Woods coming back at tight end, missed all of last year, Flash as a rookie. Curious to see what happens there. And then this right guard spot. I think you're rock solid at left, Raymond at left tackle, Nelson at left guard. at center, Brainsman's with the right tackle. Between Tanner Bordolini, Matt Gonclaves, who are your third and fourth round picks, Will Fries, that's an interesting glare to this group that I find to be fascinating.

So got to sort that out. But like I said, I think this team, like Anthony Richardson, if he could say healthy and kind of be what they drafted him to be, I am not sleeping on the Annapolis Colts. Which gets us, go ahead. I'll say, they deserve some credit, too, for Gonclaves and Borlini. The depth was a big, scary point for them last year. Now, the O-Line stayed healthy all year, but I mean. Except for Braden Smith.

Yeah. Except for Braden Smith. But now you've, you know, Freeland on the bench, Bordolini, Gonclays, you feel pretty good about about the depth there where they could sustain an injury or two without the whole thing falling apart. Like we saw a couple years ago, the O-Line in 2022 was horrendous. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think that I'm not high on Blake Freeland. And I think he was kind of a disaster filling in for Braden Smith.

but I think with the two new additions, I think that they've elevated that depth quite a bit. Brett, I think there's a fascinating conversation to be had about the Tennessee Titans who finished last in this division last year. And Brian Callahan taking over as the head coach of this football team, we're rolling with Will Levis, which we'll get to that in a second. No, I want to get to it right now. I have to get into this Will Levis stuff. I can't even go on. Can't even go on. This is a West Coast timing-based route depth has to be precise offense under Brian,

Callahan. He said that in his opening press conference. We know what he runs. We know the influences that he has. When I think of Will Levis, I don't think of any of those things. I think of an action figure that's playing quarterback that runs like a fullback that has all the armed talent in the world and nothing is on schedule. This scheme fit is fascinating. And I think it's going to be really important for Brian Callahan to be adaptable with what he wants to do if he's going to get the most out of Will Levis. And one of the talking points that I'm surprised I haven't seen more of is everything that I just said combined with Tennessee picking number seven in the draft. And we didn't have one conversation about them drafting a quarterback, despite Michael Pennix being the next pick.

McCarthy three picks later and then Bo Nicks five picks later. Like they are, this is kind of the path that they're on. And I like Will Levis. Will Levis was like, I'm higher on Will Levis than most people. But in this offense, I get a little bit nervous. Now I like what they were able to do at wide receiver with bringing in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd and DeAndre Hopkins. Like I think that 11 personnel with Chicaquonko and, you know, Pollard slash peers in the backfield, like that's going to give you a chance. But this offensive line's got to come together and Will Levis has to prove to me that this scheme fit can work because that's my biggest question with Tennessee right.

Fantasy points data suite stats for you or data points. Will Levis ranked 30th in accurate ball rate among 39 QBs who played 200 snaps. So 30th. He ranked 37th in catchable ball rate, Joe. Now you're going to talk about speeding up his process and his delivery and the mechanics, the footwork. He's got that silly fadeaway, too, when he's thrown to his left. You know what I'm talking about? Some of those guys do that on purpose, though.

Like, that's how they set. I don't know if it's good or not, but it's an Aaron Rogers thing. He's the one that kind of started that. His is not nearly as pronounced as Levis's. Levis looks like an NBA player trying to hit a fadeaway three. it's the weirdest thing you can't tell me it doesn't affect his accuracy because i got taped that can show you it does but man like data was not good i i agree with the sentiment that they should have been talking quarterback at seven especially when there was options there it's not like

all those guys went top five and they were screwed no no dice like they had options but there's some merit though joe to the idea that like when you're the you're the calhans you come in you're taking over the second you draft the quarterback your clock starts now they have the excuse. Well, we tried to make it work with what was here. Now, if it doesn't work, they can go get their guy and that clock doesn't start until they really do that. So, despite all of that, I think the Tennessee Titans had an awesome offseason. I think they had one of the best offices in the league. They spent a lot. They spent a lot. But here's the thing, they were terrible at two positions that are pretty critical to me. Worst cornerback unit in the

NFL, worst wide receiver room in the NFL. They go out, they get legurious need in Chidobe Ouse, they go out and they get Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, I just kind of like that they did, like, they took their positions of weaknesses and arguably made them strength. It wasn't just like, hey, we're addressing this with a, you know, a mid-tier player. Like, no, they actually went and got legit players. Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley should help Will Levis quite a bit, in fact. And then Sneed and Ouzay, that's one of the better CB duos in the entire NFL. So career in the slot, too, is a nice player. Yeah, absolutely. I just really like what they've done in the all season. J.C. Latham, I thought was a great pick, you know, especially for the for the Callahan's. Like, you know, they're,

they're going to get the most out of him for sure. Cushingberry, Lloyd Cushenberry coming over, place center. But that was a solid, similar to, you know, Jacksonville picking up the Buffalo kid. Morse. Mitch Morse. Similar effect there where good and pass pro, just solid starter that just gets you back towards average a little bit. So I like everything that they did. I think the X factors for Tennessee is going to be the defensive line. I love Harold Landry. I love Jeffrey Simmons. I think Arden Key's okay.

Not sure you have much else in terms of filling out this rotation. Sebastian Joseph Day is probably okay. I just feel like we're going to need more impact outside of Simmons and Landry. That's going to be important. Linebackers, this might be the worst linebacker situation in the league. I know Jack Gibbons kind of flashed a little bit last year. We need to see more from him, but like I'm not in on Kenneth Murray. So I think that's going to be something to monitor here.

And then how does this offensive line come together? I think it's for all the players that they added this offseason, I think the biggest addition might be Bill Callahan to be the offensive line coach and him having a chance to work with Skoronski and work with Latham. And even Ray Dunes, Dylan Raydunes is probably going to be the right tackle this year. He's played like four different positions extensively in the NFL. I think he's been his best at right tackle. This will give him a real shot to develop there.

So when I think about this team and what they can do, we can't get injured that corner. I think they have a great starting pair of corners. We can't have anyone get injured there. We need this offensive line to come together. How is Will Levis going to fit this offense and do we have enough defensive line depth? And can we win with these linebackers? I think there's a fair amount of questions here.

Yep. Not that expectations are high for this team. I don't think they are. They're not. The D-line stuff is really concerning. They were horrendous against the run for a good stretch of last year. They ended up tightening it up towards the end of the year. It's like the Colts and the Titan swap places, actually.

but their pass rush was god awful like fourth worst pressure rate in the NFL and they actually correct me if I'm wrong and I believe they committed a lot of bodies of the pass rush too like a lot of heavy blitz rate of 31% and they still had the fourth worst pass rush in the NFL that's not good that'll get you killed so we talk about having a terrible secondary some of that was you know they weren't playing with you know six guys in coverage seven guys in coverage so pretty young defensive coaching staff as well kind of stepping in here Right. So that's another kind of dynamic here. I mean, really the whole thing is Brian Callahan's wasn't the play caller for the Bengals, right? Like there's some things here coaching staff wise. Like I can be interested in the direction here, but it's got to come together. It does. Dinard Wilson, the DC coming over. He had basically one year of high level coaching at Baltimore as a DBAAC coach. He did a good job. You know, I don't think anyone will say he didn't. But a little early maybe for him to get his first big boy, big boy job here. the DC be interesting to see what he does from a scheme standpoint.

Because I know one thing the Ravens were really good at, Joe, is creating the illusion of pressure without necessarily having the blitz. Can he do the same thing? And I know Harold Landry can play from a two point or a three point stance. And they have some workable bodies like that. Arden Key, Kenneth Murray is probably best as a blitzer than anything else. You know, can he use those bodies to create the illusion of pressure and kind of help out his secondary a little bit?

And they're going to rotate a ton up front, right? the Baltimore mindset under Mike McDonald. So that's going to be important. I think he's got the horses in the secondary, but he don't have Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith at linebacker. He doesn't have close to the defensive line rotation. And he's young. All excellent points.

What's up with Caleb Fairley? Is he just done? Is he dead? Cooked. I mean, he can't say healthy. And then when he is on the field, he's not good.

Which is a shame because I thought coming out of Virginia Tech, he had some really, really impressive traits and really impressive tape. But like, the dudes had so many injuries. I think it's kind of zapped him of some talent. And I'm sure, you know, confidence and mental makeup is a big deal, right? I mean, as a first round pick and can't be on the field and getting out,

the team's investing in other players of your position. I mean, it's not been a good story for him. I mean, if I can go in on John Robinson for a minute, I think there's some people that were surprised when he was fired. Not me. Like, this guy was kind of a joke. This team was the number one seat of the AFC. and you want to talk about failure after failure after failure of trying to get that team over the hump,

just whiffing on all your investments when it comes to the defensive line, the Julio Jones trade. All of that was a joke, man. And then he's drafting guys, their draft pick retention is probably like got to be the worst in the NFL during that span. I mean, drafting guys, they're not even on the team. Like just cutting top three round picks left and right. And then his last two parting gifts are Caleb Farley and Traylon Burks. Come on, man. Like, how Robinson was a problem here.

We talked about them having the worst secondary in the league last year. That's despite the fact that they had by far invested more into their secondary from a draft pick standpoint than any team in the league, not even close. They had multiple first round picks, second round picks. I think at one point in time, they had two first round corners, two second round corners, and a third round corner and Elijah Mulden who eventually moved the safety. Yeah. I mean, and they still stunk at corner. I mean, they just bad talent evaluation. So excellent point by you there on John Robinson.

So I think that's where Titans fans should be excited is that you do have a new direction here with Rand Carthin. I think your philosophy under Mike Rable for as good of a floor as he provided for your football team, I think that it's a tough way to play football. We're going to run the ball. We're going to stop the run.

You know, like it's just you've got to be more dynamic. And I think that the way that they're set up moving forward gives them a chance to be a whole lot more dynamic. All right. Let's tie it bow on this. You picked Houston to win it all. Is it competitive? And who's the team that competes?

I think any of those top three, I think Houston, Jacksonville, Indy, all, I mean, I wouldn't blink and I have any of them won the division. So I think it's going to be really, really competitive with Tennessee. You know, this is a reset year for them. I agree wholeheartedly. I think Indy will bring this down to the wire in the end. And I'm on coach firing alert in Jacksonville, but I do like Indy. I think they'll contend.

All right. That's going to do it for us today. remember to go over to the YouTube channel and find us on Spotify. We're going division by division. So this is the third one we've done, third episode, third division. We're going to do all eight. I think it's really important to get in there. Listen to everything we've had to say about the other divisions.

Also, there's some great, the YouTube channel we've been putting up like the first segment of the show. So you can just get the first 22, 23 minutes of the show on there. Real cool way to get introduced to the video aspect of the show. folks remember no matter what develops we will always be your first read thank you for listening we are out