Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Offensive All-Rookie Picks + NFC South Breakdown

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

Welcome to First Read, your go-to podcast for the latest in NFL analysis and insights. Join hosts Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino to dive into the All-Rookie Picks and get into their full NFC Breakdown. Whether you're a fantasy football enthusiast, a die-hard fan, or just looking to stay informed on all things NFL, "First Read" has you covered. Tune in for expert opinions, detailed breakdowns, and engaging discussions every week. Don't miss out on the ultimate NFL podcast experience! Where to find us: http://twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sale. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27th. Conditions apply, details online. First read. We are your first read, the film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Lockdown and myself, Brett Whitefield, the CEO of Fantasy Points.

This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points. Data Suite. Let's get after it. Joe, you are back. I hijacked the show last week with you out of town. Figured we, you know, just to just to irritate you, I'd bring in a guy to talk your favorite subject, which is O line plays. Like if you're going to leave me by myself, I'm going to make you pay for it.

So we brought in our friend Scott D. Benedetto and talked O line play. So how about that? Yeah, I'm annoyed. I'm annoyed by that for sure. I think the only thing that would have made it worse is if you did defensive line. So like I like trench play, but I do lean defensive line over O line. You should have done corners, man. Like you love corners.

I'm not that into corners. That would have been your thing to do, man. Like you had to do something fun. Well, the nice thing for you is I think we will bring Scott back several times throughout the season and maybe we'll have him come back to talk D-Line because that's actually his main like he's O-Line guru, but he's also D-Line guru. Unfortunately, you know, for the written content at fantasy points, not a lot of our readers want to hear about the D-Line.

But for this podcast, we can talk D-Line all day long. I hate that about the readers. I hate that. you know what I mean? Yeah. Football games are won in the trenches. They are, and they do affect fantasy football quite a bit. Yeah.

You know, like they can, they can stall out your favorite offense and prevent you from racking up those fantasy points. So anyways, I mean, I thought, go to the Super Bowl. Like, I thought literally the, the Chiefs D-line beat up the 49ers offensive line. They beat them up. For sure. They couldn't, who was, they couldn't stop Mike Pennell. Mike Pennell was like a wrecking crew in that game.

So Dana, Mike Dana, too. Mike Dana's a good player. Yeah, I like, I'm a big fan. George Carl Loftus. Chris Jones, that guy's good. That guy is good. Well, anyways, Joe, I'm glad you're back. You know, I'm glad to be back.

But, you know, it's nice having my brother back in the studio. So how is your vacation, though, did you? You know how it is, man, your vacation with little kids, you know, it's, you're kind of just parenting somewhere less convenient. But you make some great memories along the way. You know, we went out on the beach. We played mini golf, lots of fun. Pirates voyage was fun. We did a lot of good stuff.

got to be with my in-laws, my mother came with us. So good family time. But, you know, do you have a, if you bring your kids and they're both under five years old, did you go on vacation? Wait a second. So you had mother-in-law or in-laws, plural, and your mom there. Yeah. My father-in-law, my mother-in-law, and my mother.

That sounds like light lifting then for you. Brother, it was nice having six extra hands around to assist. There's no question about it. So let me tell you this. We're doing a vacation. end of August right before the football season, booked a huge house on the beach, and we're bringing all four grandparents with us.

Wow. I have four kids, so it is a little tougher. You know, my wife and I have four kids plus the four grandparents, and that's going to be nice. Hey, you're back to zone.

Back to zone. Heck yeah. Heck yeah. But like heavy zone too, right? Like six. Oh, yeah. That's favorable numbers there. You got to take your completions if you're playing against this,

you know what I mean? We're in a bracket. I mean, we're going to straight up the bracket. So, yeah. Well, anyways, Joe, vacations with grandparents are great because it definitely, you know, lessens the burden on the parents. But you know what else was great? Rookies.

Rookies. Not usually, technically, actually. Sometimes they're going to find the great rookies today, right? We are. That's the objective? We are. We're going to discuss who we're projecting to be all rookie players on offense. We're going to do defense next week, I believe.

But today is all about the offense. Did you have a format in mind for this, Joe? Like you just want to go through, we're just going to hit our list, boom, boom, boom. This isn't like a draft, right? I didn't prepare for a draft. Yeah, it's not a draft. My methodology here was I wanted to build the best offensive lineup that I could using the rookie class and really focusing in on the rookies that I think are going to have the best seasons.

Okay. So that's how I made my picks, of course, being mindful of what an actual 11-man starting lineup would be in the NFL. Same. I did the exact same thing. So we're golden then. And well, and so it's not just talent based, though. It is, like, I think this opportunity. Yeah, it's opportunity. Gotcha.

Yes, 100%. We're in lock then. Well, why don't you start us off then? Okay. Well, shall we start with quarterback? Yeah. Look, dude, I wanted to go something different here, but I can't. It has to be Caleb Williams.

It's the number one pick. It's the supporting cast that he has. He has to have the best season. And part of that, my belief in Caleb Williams having the best rookie season of any quarterback is the situation. But also, I'm not, I don't love the rest of the options. I mean, who knows when Drake May is going to be the starting quarterback in New England. Michael Pennix is not going to play in Atlanta. We'll see with McCarthy. I, I'm very interested in McCarthy, but I don't know, it feels like it's Sam Darnold's job until it isn't. Who knows when

that'll be? It does feel that way for sure. So the only, I, Jane Daniels, I'm nervous. I'm nervous about Jane Daniels. So to me, it came down to Bo Nicks or Caleb Williams, who's got the better situation. It's Caleb Williams. That was my pick. So I see it. The supporting cast, yada, yada. It's great. It's probably one of the rare 101 picks into a pretty good situation. I didn't go Caleb Williams, though. In part, so I'm already a liar because I told you, I did this base on who I think has the best rookie season. But I knew you're going to go Caleb Williams. And so I was like, I think there are two guys worth talking about. And I think Jaden Daniels is worth discussing here. And I know you're nervous about him. I'm nervous about

them too, especially from a processing standpoint, going from the LSU, you know, vert or run offense basically. Like we're throwing a bomb or we're taking off and running. And he's not going to be able to do that in the NFL at the same clip anyways. But I do think from a statistical output standpoint, Jaden Daniels' floor as a rusher puts him in the conversation. Do you not, like I think he's a candidate for a thousand yards rushing this year. If he runs for a thousand yards and let's say Caleb,

has like an above average rookie season. Who gets put on the all rookie team if there was actually one? There's not. I mean, does Caleb Williams throw 30 touchdown passes in 4,000 yards? Because that's going to offset your 1,000 yards rushing for Jane Daniels. So Jane Daniels rushes for 1,000 yards. Is he alive at the end of the season with this frame? Well, that's obviously a big concern too.

I wasn't projecting injuries, though. Well, no, you're not going to. But like if your entire foundation is based on you think the Russian production is going to be there, I'm nervous if Jaden Daniels is a thousand yard rush. let me i'm looking up our our director of analytics projections for the season right now i'm going to read you the projected stat lines you tell me what the better season is all right oh boy so without telling me who the player is no no no no i'll tell you the player i'm not no no don't tell me the player i guess i'll probably know but don't tell me the player i'll tell you which season i think is

better you'll know okay so based on based on chris's projections 3500 passing yards 30 20 passing touchdowns 650 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns That's, well, you'll figure it out. 3,700 for the other guy with 23 passing touchdowns and then 350 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Well, the first season's better. That's Jaden Daniels. Wow. So he projected Caleb Williams to have more rushing yards than Jane Daniels.

No, no. No, Jaden Daniels was the first season I read. The second season was. Oh, okay. Got you. Gotcha. 350 versus 650. I think Daniels has a chance to go even higher than that.

I'm not going to argue with our director of analytics, though. You're smashing the over, though, if you got a bet of $6.50 for Jaden Daniels rushing yards? Yeah, yeah, I'll go over. I think he has potential to have like an RG3 type season. I know it's tacky because it's the same team. But just seeing what he does, if he stays healthy, he plays 15, 16 games. Brad Whitefield, the Jahan Dotson Hater, expecting Jaden Daniels to have the best rookie season for quarterbacks, man, I love it. No offensive line.

Austin Echler stinks out loud. I love it. I love the optimism. It's a bona fide star. He's a legit receiver that hasn't had good quarterback play in half a decade. Right. So. It's funny because I had this down to Bow Nix and Caleb Williams and here you are coming in with Jaden Dames.

Yep. Yep. I admittedly, I started this by saying Caleb Williams is probably the guy, but I wanted to throw a second guy in there. And I think based on our projections here at fantasy points, we would say Jaden Dales is having the better season. So I'm deferring to Christopher Wecht on this. saying Jaden Daniels. All right. All right.

When you're flying Emirates business class, dining on a world-class menu at 40,000 feet, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates, fly better. Black Friday is here at IKEA, and the clock is ticking on savings you won't want to miss. Join IKEA family for free today and unlock deals on everything from holiday must-havs to cozy at-home essentials, all the little and big things you need to make this season shine.

But don't wait. Like leftovers at midnight, our Black Friday offers won't last. Shop now at IKEA.ca.ca.com. Bring home to life. Running back. You want me to go to this time? Yeah, go ahead. This is where I try to have a little fun, because I think it's wide open. You got Jonathan Brooks coming off in ACL. I didn't want to go that direction. Trey Benson, great situation, minus the fact that there's a stud in front of him in James Connor. I have no idea what that split share is going to look like. Blake Corum in L.A. same thing. I think he's really good. Has a really good

player in front of them. So I went I actually threw two names down. I'm going to read you one. I went with your guy. The Buffalo Bills running back. Ray Davis. Kill me with this. Joe. Tell me. Thunder and lightning. And this is no knock on James Cook.

I think we know what James Cook is in that offense that really went to a gap scheme last year. Last eight games especially power counter duo it suits ray davis perfectly i'm telling you man he's also a phenomenal receiver i like that you can play any personnel group any alignment any formation interchangeable with james cook and ray davis i think he gets on the field early joe and i think he's a big part of this offense uh also a little bit better in the red zone or on the goal line i would say than james cook and i think they need to start making sure they're protecting josh and i know josh is

the weapon down there. You want to give him 10 goal line carries in the playoffs. That's fine. I don't want to do it in week one of the regular season. I'm going Ray Davis. I think it's compelling. I think the challenge is going to be how much volume goes to James Cook, right? It's a volume conversation for Ray Davis. I do think they wanted to be part of the mix for sure. And I was very surprised by the amount of opportunity James Cook got just based on Sean McDermott's comments saying, look, we don't think it's good for one back to carry the load. Next to you know James Cook is like 300 touch guy, you know what I mean, including the playoffs after he's never been that. So I think it's probably going to be a hot hand situation to me. If Ray Davis

comes in and he's a thing, I think that'll stay, right? So I think they'll ride whoever it is, but that's an interesting pick. I am going with Trey Benson at running back. Cardinals can run the ball, right? Like Drew Petzig, kind of an unknown commodity as an offensive coordinator. I mean, talk about a crappy hand to be dealt. You're young. It was like 37 years old. Your quarterback's hurt. You're having to start like like Josh Dobbs.

You trade him for him like three days before the season starts. It stinks, by the way. Right. He stinks. You don't really have any receiving talent. Young players everywhere. But like that team could run the ball. And it wasn't necessarily because Kyler Murray was getting a bunch of rushing yards.

So I think they're going to lean into that a lot. And I know that James Connor is really good. There's no question about it. And he's not like old or anything. I mean, this is his age 29 season. So I think he's got time left to go. But I think if they want to maximize what's left for James Connor and incorporate their new toy,

I think you're going to see plenty of run for Trey Benson. And I love them as a prospect. So I love the prospect, size, athleticism, power. And then he goes to a great situation where they can run the football. Where I think this is part of what Arizona is going to have to do is run the ball. I think he's going to get enough opportunity to be the most productive rookie running back. Benson was a clear box checker for me in the pre-draft process. And what I mean by that is I have three premium traits for running backs, vision, burst, make you miss potential.

He does all three level. And he's stepping into a good situation, even with kind of a band-aided offensive line, the Cardinals were awesome running the ball last year. And they were truly awesome. I know attaching like read option onto every single run helps, right? Because it's like you're giving yourself a box advantage even when there's not technically one on paper. So I really like what they're doing in Arizona, though. If he does get the opportunity, I guess it's true for both guys, Ray and Tray.

They do need to get the opportunity. But if they do, they should be able to run with it. And I think excel at a high level. Dude, if Jonathan Brooks is healthy, you could say what you want about the Panthers offensive line. Dude, they got people movers. And Aquano, Damian Lewis, Robert Hunt, Taylor Moton. Yep. And then we'll figure out what was a Brady, a Corbett's going to play center?

Who cares? They got people movers. The problem is, are there going to be enough respect on Brewery? Young's ability to throw the ball that they don't get, you know, slam boxes all the time. And then on top of that is Jonathan Brooks healthy. Because I don't think much of Chuba Hubbard. I mean, in terms of like a leadback and certainly Miles Sanders, that was a Frank Reich situation.

He stinks. I think the opportunity's right there for Jonathan Brooks if he's healthy. I agree fully. Is tight end, is there anything to talk about tight end? No. It's Brock Bowers, right? It has to be Brock Bowers. You could like throw a caveat like maybe Ben Sinai if he starts over Ertz.

I just don't think it's going to early. I think it's going to take a little time. So, yeah. And we know that like, there's some teams trying to, a couple of teams trying to trade up for Bowers and like the Raiders were firm. They wanted them. A team with needs, right? Like legit big needs are like, no, we want Brock Bowers. We want this playmaker.

A year after they took Michael Mayer in top 50. So, and they didn't, they were one of the least, like in terms of tight end usage last year. The Raiders were like bottom of the league. So we'll see if that's a big shift this year. But I can't see anybody coming close. to what Brock Bowers is going to do this year. Pierce has said that he wants to get to more 12 personnel, more multiple looks as well.

And Bowers gives you that option. He could very much be a slot receiver in the NFL. Right. There's a lot of utility with the way they're going to deploy those guys. You want to do wide receivers in like the trio? Like deliver your three? Oh, yes. Yes, I do.

Okay. All right. You want to go first? I don't. But. Okay, I'll go first. My wide receiver core. I think two of these were really.

really easy for me to land on. Marvin Harrison, Jr. I know that's such a like chalky pick, but the opportunity to be immediately a number one wide receiver with like not a unknown commodity at quarterback, the numbers got to be there, right? Like somebody's got to catch a ball in Arizona. So I think he's going to have a huge year. And that's on top of me thinking he was the best player in the class. Right. So talent, opportunity, it's right there. Then I went with Malik Neighbors. And this is really rooted in a make or break year for Daniel Jones and Brian Dayball. no Sequin Barkley, no Darren Waller. I mean, who you're throwing the ball to you?

Throwing a lot of Wondell Robinson and Darius Slayton? Like, is that what we're going to do? Those guys are taking targets away from Malik Neighbors? He's going to come in and get opportunity. And not that I think that Malik Neighbors is this polished receiver prospect, but the upside's unbelievable. And I think it's just about getting him the ball. And I think they'll do that with the Giants.

The third player, I think, is the interesting one. I went with Ladd-McConkie with the Los Angeles Chargers. and what this comes down to is really it's about opportunity. I mean, he's not more talented than some of the other options that I could have picked. But, man, I just don't like these Chargers receiver corps, like at all. And I think that they are going, like, I think Justin Herbert's going to love throwing on the ball. Choice routes from the slot.

He's got speed. He can win a little bit after the catch with his, with his acceleration. I think he's just a crafty player that, you know, you think about how often Herbert would go to, like, Echler with the ball. Like I think this is this is the new like for lack of better phrase like security blanket blanket for Justin Herbert. So I think the opportunity there screams to me. And that's why I pick Ladd-Lad of Kaki is kind of my third guy. I dig it.

So we had Marv the same. I didn't put Malik neighbors on my list, Joe, and mostly just because of quarterback play. I think neighbors could have a great season. If Daniel Jones is more 22, Daniel Jones, where it seemed like he was an ascending player and, you know, earn that, I guess earned that contract. then maybe Neighbors has a Monster Year. It's interesting, too, because if you look at the way that team's constructed, they're not really set up to run the ball at all. So I'm a little shot.

With running backs, you mean? Because I think their offensive lines good. Yeah, with running backs. Offens and Gus Edwards. What are we doing here? No, no. We're talking about neighbors. Oh, dude, I'm thinking about Ladd-McConkie still.

My bad. No, you're good. No, with like Devin Singletary and a bad offensive line. They're not really set up. Yeah, that's not great. Yeah. So from that standpoint, I think neighbors should have a lot of of opportunity. The target competition is obviously not great. So I definitely see it. He's obviously

was a high draft pick as well. So typically you force you force the issue. I also did not have lad on my board. I admittedly this was I was like really torn between him and the other guy. Really, really torn. I ended up going with somebody else. My issue with lad is one, I think Quentin Johnson's moving to the slot full time. I think Josh Palmer is a very good outside receiver. And I still think Ladd McConkey is a rookie. As good as he is as his policy is as a player. I just think the target competition is a little

heavier than people think. I think a lot of people think he immediately steps in. He's the de facto wide receiver one there. I don't think it's that easy for him. I think he's got a lot of work to do. No, I think that's fair. I don't think he's de facto number one. But I think there's going to be

plenty of opportunity for him. And I think are you in on Quentin Johnson? Not really. I mean, I I'm in, oh man, so I always tell you, I'm combating narrative, right? Like my take is usually based on what everyone else is kind of, I think he's overly being crapped on by everybody. When he was drafted, he was raw. He was never supposed to be good as a rookie.

He was as raw as hits as a receiver. So what he did last year on tape didn't bother me because that's what I expected, where it bothered everybody else because he was a first round pick. You expect immediate production because that's the way the NFL's kind of been lately, right? So I think he steps in year two, hoping to take a stride. They're going to move him. Like they drafted him to play in the slot. Obviously with Keenan Allen, that really wasn't a thing last year.

He had to play on the outside a lot. Did play in the slot a little bit too, but whatever. I think there's a chance he's a much better version of him this year. And I don't think he's a stud or superstar by any means. But I do think you'll get a much better version of Quinton Johnson this year. And then also Josh Palmer in the mix. And then the one thing neither one of us mentioned is Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, historically run the crap out of the football. They don't throw the ball that much.

Right. Wow, there's a lot to unpack there. This is another reason. This is, Quentin Johnson, I had like a third round grade on him. So like when he was picked in the first round, he met my expectations in terms of what he did last year because I didn't expect much. But I think when a team picks a player in the first round, I think it's appropriate at that point to, okay, I can shift here. Now, you're telling me that this is a player that you foresee is like a building block and key piece of your operation. So that elevated my expectations a bit for Quentin Johnson. I think the biggest problem with Quentin Johnson is going to be that, I don't know,

like this regime didn't pick them, right? Like you see this all the time. It's a great point. And they did pick Ladd-McConkey, was a pick-35 in the draft or something like that. So, yeah. Fun debate here. We'll see how it goes. Also for clarity, I'm not saying Ladd doesn't out-produce Quentin Johnson, by the way.

I'm just saying I don't think Quentin Johnson's a nothing. Right. You're saying that Quentin Johnson gets in the way of maybe what I'm expecting for Ladd-McConkey. in ways that other people aren't considered. For McConkey to be to like be on the list at the end of the year, he needs what, 125, 130 targets probably? Man, see a lot of receivers that get that much. So you think rookie receivers though?

That's been the trend of late. Like when guys. Yeah, man, but. Like, Marv's going to go 150 plus probably. For sure. But like neighbors. I don't think Romitonze touches that. No, because of the competition around it.

Right. But neighbors is going to go 130. I think one of my guys could go. 1.30. Wow. I'm smashing the under on all of that. Okay. Who's your other guy? Who have we? No. Yeah, who do we have? We have Harrison from you. We need the rest of them. Yeah. My other two are Xavier Worthy. Nuts. You're nuts. Why? Keep going. Who's your other? Let's, let's do Xavier worthy first. Come on. Do you think he's going to be a volume piece of that offense? I know that in his, to his credit, he was in Texas, right? Small receiver, plenty of value. I get that. Yeah. Why not? They don't

have a single man beater on that team. He comes in right away, can beat man. He can beat zone. I don't think he's going to be the deep threat everyone thinks he's going to be. I think it'll be more of a volume player than a big explosive play guy. To me, the expect was there Hollywood Brown. Like how healthy is Hollywood Brown? Yeah. And I think obviously the Rishie Rice situation, whatever, whatever comes to that. Yeah, he's going to miss some time, right? I don't know. You'd think so. He'll miss at least three games. But even if he doesn't, Rice literally couldn't function against man defense last year. Right.

He's an underneath player at this point. Right. His production was so lame. He's ran drag routes. I can just like Pat finds him. Drag. Everything screens. Yeah, it's all schemed up for him.

Some zone beating element to it where he's sitting it down. But I think Worthy is going to be, I think he should be a focal point for sure. Okay. Just the route running, the precision in that route running, like that's Mahomes. His biggest issue with Rice, Skymore. A lot of these guys over the last few years is he can't trust them to be where they're

supposed to be where when they're supposed to be there. I think Worthy solves that problem. And I know Hollywood's good too, but I do think Hollywood's more that deep over go route kind of guy in this offense, the MVS role from last year. So all right. Okay. I'm not vibing with your list. Who's the next guy? You better. I hope you're viving with this one. Is it key on? It's key on. God, you picked both of them. I did. I did. I mean, Joe, the bills are in a, unique situation where target volume is gone. Sorry, the target competition is gone. Diggs Davis out the door.

We've talked about this. How many targets is that? It's over 250 something. Yeah, vacated targets. Yeah, it's a lot. There's huge opportunity. Obviously, Shakir takes a step forward. 308.

308 of Josh Allen's 545 targets from last year, not in the mix. That is insane. Yeah. So I think Keon is a guy who, obviously, he's got to still go out there and win that job and earn it. But considering where they took him, I think. they feel like he can. If he went, if he's a starter, Joe, in this offense, he's, he's 130 target guy.

Oh, I think that's nuts. I think that's nuts, Brett Whitefield. Really? I, I did an episode of lockdown bills recently where I projected the 2024 target distribution. I had Keon Coleman 1, 2, 3, 4, 5th. I had 5th in targets behind Kincaid, Shakir. I think Kincaid and Shakir are very clearly going to be the only threats for 100 targets on this offense.

then I have Curtis Samuel, then I have James Cook, then I have Keon Coleman. I have Kean Coleman is like a 50 to 70 target guy. Wow. That would be devastating to my picks here, obviously. Right. I hope you're right, man. And this isn't, I'll be honest with, this isn't really about my assessment of Keon Coleman. This is my assessment of the opportunity that he has in Buffalo.

I just, Josh Allen, like even when he had a man, I think Josh Allen has always been a little bit slow developing with new targets. And my God, he's got to get that going. this year, obviously, because they're all new. The Joe Brady offense, though, kind of simplifies that, because a lot of it's static. There's so much static stuff in that offense, where you're just asking Keon-Kohmone to box somebody out. Don't let them get in between.

Are those the throws Josh Allen loves, though? Does he love just going to be asked to make? Man, I don't know. Eight games of last season, man. Oh, man. They're going to run until you drop. I'd be stunned. Yeah. Well, you're the bills guy. I'll defer to you. If you don't think it's happening,

then you don't think it's happening. And I'll defer to you. I'd say McConkey's a better pick then. It's obviously it all comes down to opportunity, right? Like we're just, we're taking the information that we have and trying to forecast the best we can, right? I mean, we'll see. I hope you're right. So before we move on to offensive line, we do got to take a quick break.

One more thing on receivers, Joe. Have you thought about Brian Thomas Jr. at all? Not even for a second. No. Okay. So you think Gabe Davis stinks. you've made that pretty clear. Yeah.

Christian Kirk is kind of a slot maven, and he's a target hog for sure. Ingram's kind of been a target hog. But I feel like Thomas could have some surprisingly good efficiency. So even if he's not getting in that 125, 130 target range, if he's averaging 18 yards a catch, does it matter? He's going to be some volume component there, right? Sure. I mean, even if he does average, he's got to get 70, 80 targets probably at least.

Why can he? I don't mean, he certainly could. Yeah, yeah. All right, offensive line, the big, oh, you had a. No, it's spicy on the wide receivers, man. Yeah, yeah. Well, that's, you know what? It was an excellent wide receiver class.

And so there should be a lot of answers. There should be some debate on that. But all right, offensive line, the big fatties. You didn't get to talk about it last week, but you get to a little bit here. So I wanted to throw out your, you, well, how do you want to do this? You want to go five and five? Yeah, let's give you my whole unit. Okay, cool.

My left tackle is, well, it. That doesn't matter. My two tackles are Joe Alt from the Chargers, who I think was the second best prospect in this past draft. I think he's unbelievable. I think he's going to be awesome for the Chargers for a long, long time. My other one is Troy Fittano from the Steelers. A big fan of his tape at Washington. Obviously, he's going to, you think he'd factor in right away to be the starter opposite of Broderick Jones for the Steelers. My guards, Jackson Powers Johnson from the Raiders and Jordan Morgan from the Packers,

the challenging thing, you're shaking your head. The challenging thing here is like, I don't know who's going to start. And I feel like those two guys have, you know, they're fairly high picks with clear opportunities to start. And then at center, I thought about Zach Frazier, but I landed on Graham Barton with the bucks to be my pivot. You're like laughing and chuckle. What is it the same ones or what do we got different here? Yeah, I mean, Graham Barton was our only difference. And I did pick Zach Frazier.

So. Oh, wow. And I thought about the only reason I didn't pick Zach Frazier and I love Zach Frazier is I thought like, two rookie starters on that offensive line. But man, they have good guards, so that's helpful. But see him. Alu. And yeah. No, you nailed it. I mean, we're in lock. Joe Alt starting with him, you know,

he, whether he was the best player in this draft or not, doesn't even matter. He's such a high floor for pass protection because he's so big. Good luck getting around him. I mean, I think he steps in A1 and is an excellent pass protector. The run game stuff might take time because we do know Greg Roman likes pulling tackles. He likes run a lot of power encounter. Joe Alt is a big kind of cumbersome mover. That might take some time for him to get that timing down and, you know, add a little more power to his base for those types of blocks.

I don't think it matters that much, though. I pick Joe Alt. I think he's going to be awesome from day one. And everything else is the same except Zach Frazier over Graham Barton? Yeah. And for me, Barton, I just think technically he's just very sloppy still. that's the only reason I didn't pick him. Great athlete. He should be in a scheme that favors him quite a bit,

a lot of outside zone type stuff, get him on the move, maybe some pin and pole as well, which he should be excellent at. So I do like that for him. I think Zach Frazier is just a better well-rounded player right now that can play right away. The player that I thought about was Christian Haynes with, is he Seattle? Yeah. I thought, I know if he starts, man, I think he's going to be really good.

Talk about athleticism on that offensive line. If they have Haynes, Charles Cross, and Abe Lucas is healthy. I mean, just insane athletes. And that would be a big jump from, I know that they have a lot of transition with their into your offensive line. Yeah. But like athletically, there'll be a lot more dynamic moving forward. Because Damien Lewis, I mean, good player, but not a mover, right?

Like, you get movement skills out of Christian Hayes. And that bodes well for what Ryan Grub is going to try to do there as well with, you know, I mean, just a super fast-paced offense, a lot of quick-hills. hitters outside zone like get get those guys in space moving so i think right ryan grub in seattle is one of the most interesting coordinator hires of the cycle with mike mcdonald going to be the head coach right a young defensive minded coach typically you see when a a young hot shot coordinator gets a job that's a specialist on one side of the ball they go for like the very safe right sean mcvay gets hired who's his defense

defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips, right? Mike McDaniel gets hired. Who is he? Well, I actually kept Josh Boyer, but Vic Fangio. They try to get these guys. Mike McDonald gets hired. He says, you know what? Give me Ryan Grub. Never coached in the NFL in his whole life. He'll be our offensive coordinator. I love the ceiling of that staff, but like there's a little piece of me that feels like

there's going to be a curve. Yep, for sure. They're in a tough division, too. So good luck. Two names I want to throw at you that I didn't put on, but I considered. With reports coming out of New Orleans that Trevor Penning has maybe one favor back and he's going to play left tackle. That potentially means Teliesei Fuaga is playing left guard. If they're playing him at left guard, that dude is a monster, Joe. Well, is for is Ramchek going to play at all this year, right?

I think that's that's the piece of the, of the conversation that, because I thought about Fuwaga as well. Yeah, as the right. I think, well, is there some rummings that Penning's going to go to right tackle and they're going to put Fulagga left? Like, what are we going to do here? Yeah, I don't, I don't know exactly. Just the beats are saying Penning is definitely one favor back.

He's had a phenomenal offseason in amazing shape. You hear a lot of these reports. Yeah, all the stuff. All the stuff. But a guy who was having a very troubled first two years to his career, obviously potential attitude issues. It's good to hear things like that. B-Ribb just wouldn't make that up, you know what I mean?

So I do think that's significant development for them because if he can play and be functional and you're still adding Fawga to the mix, this offensive line is kind of back to what we're used to the Saints' offensive line being. I like it. I thought about him as well. The other one was Cooper Beebe. If he gets that starting center job in Dallas, that's a potential noise maker.

He was on my short list as well. All right, Brett Whitefield. Fun conversation with the offensive rookies defense next week. And I've already preliminarily put together my list. And I, for as fun as the offense was, I had more fun with the defense. I think there's just a lot more options. Like, was it like 14, 15 offensive players in a row to start?

this past draft. I think that opens up the world for the defensive options. So we will do that for you guys next week. But here today, we're going to shift gears to focusing in on a divisional preview, the NFC South, a division that probably talk yourself into three teams having a real shot to win this thing. And I think the floor of that Panthers roster has certainly elevated this offseason. So as we get into this, we'll start with the defending champions, the Tampa Bay fucking ears who extend Baker Mayfield. They lose Dave Canales, right? So Liam Cohen's coming in.

He had a cup of coffee with Baker Mayfield, with their briefs in together with the Rams. But Liam Cohen, a lot to learn there. I think we should start this conversation on the offense with Baker, Baker Mayfield and how this all comes together. Like, what's the vibe check for you with Tampa? I mean, Baker played out of his mind last year compared to what we had seen so far. He had the one pretty good year in Cleveland

But man, he was really good. Canales did a lot of good things for him. I like that the deal that they did with him isn't super prohibitive for the future. Like it's, hey, if this works out, great. If it doesn't, no sweat off our back. It is kind of an older roster too. So you didn't necessarily want to handcuff yourself to staying in this version of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So I think all around, it was a win. The re-signing Baker was a win, the amount they got him for. And if he repeats the performance, it's definitely a huge value. So I'm a big fan of that bigger signing. Yeah, I think, man, you said something, I think, on our first episode, and I must have said it at 105 million times since then. The easiest thing you can do in the NFL is get worse at quarterback. And I don't think Tampa Bay was in a position to do anything else.

Like I thought it was their best path forward for the quarterback position. And like you said, it's not like a deal that hamstrings. I mean, he gets paid, but he's also not like, like you said, if this doesn't work out, it's not over for us. I think there's, it's fair to have questions about, you know, Dave Conallis and what he brought out of Baker Mayfield with the scheme and, and really kind of settling in as the season moved along. I think this, what is this team three and, were they three and seven or something like that? They wind up winning this division. Yep.

So you worry about kind of pulling that piece away. And I know Canales took a lot of the staff with him. So that's going to be important. And then I've certainly like Mike Evans, he's just signed an extension, right? Like he's been the model of consistency in the NFL. And I think Chris, Chris Guy one's a good player. To me, I think the success of this offense,

not only is rooted in Baker Mayfield in the scheme, but what do we get out of like a K-dot in a tight end and a Trey Palmer is potentially that third receiver? I think it's some of those players outside of the main characters that I think are going to tell us what the ceiling of this offense is going to be. For sure, Jamie McMillan, too, in the mix, they drafted him in the third round. He's kind of, you know, he's NFL ready, slot receivers.

So he could step in. If Godwin wants to play a little more on the outside, they could slide McMillan in right away. You'd point on Liam Cohen real quick. He does a lot of the same things that Dave Canal said. I think it was intentional why they went after him. I don't, like from a nomenclature standpoint, it's going to be very similar. A lot of the same language that heavy boot action type outside zone game is going to be there for Baker. So I think when you really see the steps Baker took, it made sense to go after a guy like Liam Cohen,

even though he's a little unproven to kind of preserve what made Baker so good last year. So I do like the addition to Liam Cohen. And we, you know, the McVeigh tree has had plenty of success around the league. So not really anything to be worried about there. How about this tackle tandem, Worfson, Goodecki? Those guys have become a really good group, especially with the development of Luke Godecki at right tackle. I think the interior offensive line is another area where I'm watching. Graham Barton, a rookie center, Cody Mock, year two.

We need him to take a step. And then, you know, it's going to be Ben Bredesen probably as the left guard. I think this, this middle three is going to be an important piece of this equation offensively. I'm surprised they, they're, it looks like they're going with bed Bredesen right now at left guard instead of Robert Hainsey. I know Hainesie will probably be that swing interior guy where he backs up all three spots, but Hainesie was pretty good as a guard. Was it his rookie season? I felt like he did, he was really good as a guard. So surprised by that.

And then super sub, Sue, Sua, Appetta coming over from the Eagles. So they got some decent depth, right? I think that's good to have those guys waiting in the wings to give yourself some hedges against those projected three starters. But I think that's going to be a big part of this group. I mean, Baker Mayfield, you don't want pressure in the face. And those guys should be good pass protectors. They're all very athletic. But that's, to me, that's critical.

Defensively, well, we've, to me, the story with this defense is you've got your, I think you have your pillars, Vita Veaawea, Levanti David, Antoine Winfield, Jr., Jamel Dean. Right? like Jordan Whitehead. I'll put him in that mix as well. Everything else on this defense is a player that is young and in an opportunity that really, maybe in flashes they've shown us, but we have a lot to learn about a Logan Hall,

who top 40 pick, like he's going to be important. Joe Try on Showyanka, like do or die time for you. Yeah, yeah, Diabi. He flashed in like situations, but now you got a bigger role. can Zion McCollum step up as a corner opposite of Jabal Dean?

Christian Eisen, year two, and the slot is kind of like a revelation for them out of nowhere last year. KJ. Britt stepping in for Devin White. And I think this defense is going to be better because Devin White's not part of it. We don't know anything about KJ Britt. So I think there's just so many players, even Kalaja Kansi, showed rush ability as a rookie. You know, what is he doing year two? So I think it's exciting to think about all these young players and the opportunity that's going to be there. But you can't ignore that there's a lot of young players that are going to be in opportunities that they really.

haven't had. This is a year where they need their draft picks to pay off. Like this is, it's big time, man. Like, they have a lot of guys stepping in a new role. So this is where the GM makes his money or doesn't. I think Jason Light has done a good job. But yes, I think some of these, some of these are his draft picks that here it is, do it, do it or don't, right? And I mean, is Randy Gregory going to be a thing for them as an edge rusher? Like, they lost Shaq Barrett and like I think you're just you're hoping that Yaya Diabi takes a step. Chris Braswell is a rookie like is there going to be enough pass rush on this team collectively? And Todd Bowles, I mean, schemes up pressure really well. I mean, I think that's kind of I like that they're

leaning into their strengths as a coaching staff, but it's got to come together. Yeah, they blitzed 42% last year, which was like the second highest rate in the NFL. So that's the Bucks, the reigning champions of the NFC South. Let's go to the Atlanta Falcons. Yeah. Raheem Morris taking over as the head coach, Zach Robinson, your offensive coordinator. Not sure you heard about this, but they signed Kirk Cousins and then drafted Michael

Pennix in the top 10. How excited are you for this offense? I'm very excited, but like, we're, I mean, very good offensive line and dynamic young skill players with Kirk Cousins and Zach Robinson. Like, this is exciting, right? Can I just say this about the Falcons? Because this is funny.

I hated their offseason as a whole. But at the same time, in the same breath, they arguably had the most impactful move of the offseason and bringing in Kirk cousins. But I also hated their offseason. So, but yeah, dude, I'm excited for this offense. Kirk, like, I've talked about it, nauseam on other shows on Sirius XM.

Drake London, Kyle Pitts ranked, you know, in the 100s last year in catchable target rate. They, I mean, they, even the targets they got weren't good targets. They, like, they had no opportunity. Darnell Mooney was in the same boat, actually, ironically, with Justin Fields. He was like, I think he ranked like 111th in catchable target rate last year. Just pitiful numbers. And then he comes to this situation with Kirk Cousins, who's one of the most accurate

quarterbacks in the league. I think he led her who's second in the NFL last year in catchable ball rate. So like, we're flipping that on its head. These guys now go from no opportunity to presumably a ton of opportunity. right and I love the the Zach Robinson pairing with with Kirk cousins the same offense Kirk's played in his entire career the there's no curve yeah it's just it's just he literally picks up the playbook already knows it and we're good to go and so we're finally going to see bejean unleashed and what Kyle Pitts can actually do and Drake London I've teased the separation

data now a thousand times I'm going to keep doing it until it comes out the separation data on Drake for his archetype looks exceptional I mean it is really good stuff anyway break it. So exciting to see him with a real quarterback this year. Where you at with a Ron Delmore? Should anybody be excited about Ron Delmore in this offense? Who's Ron Delmore? Okay. Case in point. Case in point. I like some of this young offensive line talent. I mean, Drew Dalman has developed really well

at center and I think this is a great scheme for him. But Matthew Bergeron as well as the left guard. A player I liked a ton coming out of Syracuse, stepping in his second season as a starter. and then, I mean, Chris Lindstrom's one of the best guards in the league. Jake Matthews has been the model of consistency at left tackle. Of course, Caleb McGarry is a good right tackle. His offensive line's really good. I like the dynamics of this offense. I think it's going to be, I mean, you want to talk about an NFL team and how important

head coach and quarterback is. Like you mentioned, the upgrade at quarterback seems to be significant. I would say so at head coach as well where I thought Arthur Smith was just a mess. Oh, dude, he's a mess. I mean, especially when we did the head coach show, you're talking about like, leadership and aggressiveness. Arthur Smith has none of those things. None. So excited to see the transition offensively. Defensively is another big part of what this team needs to be. I think there's likable pieces here, but I think there's some level of similarity to the way we

talked about Tampa Bay and that you're kind of counting on some very young players in big spots, whether that's Clark Phillips potentially as a starter opposite of AJ Terrell at corner. You're shaking in your head there. DeMarco Helms. Is he going to hold off Ritchie Grant again? He beat him out. He kind of took that playing time last year. Is Nate Landman going to be the starter opposite of Cade Nellis or is Troy Anderson going to finally fulfill his promise? I think there's a lot of things we've got to figure out outside of Grady Jarrett.

Is he going to be healthy? David on you met is a good player. Do we have enough edge rush here? So like there's likable things, but I'm not sure. I'm not sure there's enough edge rush and enough corner talent here. They basically neglected defense, the entire off season. It was kind of weird. And then I did not like their draft either, Joe. I hated a draft. Even Rook, Rooks. They drafted him two rounds. Like, if you would have flipped him and Horless, that would have made more sense. Thorless is clear to me. At least he gives

you something as a pass rusher right away where, you know, Horo Horo is a complete work in progress. So, man, the whole thing was a mess. I was, when I said I hated their off season, this is why. Like, Clark Phillips, I didn't think showed any signs that he can play corner in the NFL last year. Jesse Bates is great. Obviously, AJ Terrell is pretty good. D. Alford stinks. DeMarco Helms, great story taking Richie Grant's job. He's, he's been bad, though, Joe?

Like, I don't know. Go sign Justin Simmons. Right. Go sign quandary digs or something, you know what I mean? Do something. So, yeah, they just completely ignored defense. And it's kind of, it's in a way, it's hubris to me. This happens a lot where a guy like Rahim Morris comes in.

He's a defensive guy. Oh, I can make it work with what we have. let's invest into the offense since I have less project. Like he's a defensive guy, so he can't project the offense success as easily as he can to his own defense, right? So he allows all the investments to go into the offense. So I just, I don't. I didn't love it.

They love the off season. I think their defense is going to be in bad shape, man. All right. Say something nice about the defense before we move on. Grady Jarrett's a phenomenal player. If him and Anya meta are healthy, it's a really good defensive tackle duo. No doubt about that. All right.

And Jesse Bates is good. AJ Terrell's good, but yeah, a lot of other questions. Caden Ellis, though. I think Caden Ellis deserves his flowers for his development as a linebacker. I think they have something there. We'll see about the rest of it. I have the same questions you have about this defense. Cade and Ellis is Big Luther, Ellis' son.

Did you know? His brother was on his draft class. Too. Wow. Very good. Very good. Did not know that. New Orleans Saints, Brett Whitefield. Dennis Allen, hanging on. Hanging on, my guy. He gutted the defensive coaching staff last off season. off season he completely guts the offensive coaching staff. I think there's one, is it the tight ends

coach is the only one that remains in place, Clint Kubiak taking over as the offensive coordinator. I think there's more pressure on Mickey Loomis, Dennis Allen, Clint Kubiak than any head coach GM offensive coordinator situation in the entire NFL. And this team, they do business differently. And to me, like, this is a pivotal year for New Orleans because if they can't be competitive, and make like a playoff run and you know compete for 10 wins get in there somehow i think we got to like burn it down to the ground yes like everything has to like you're going to have to embrace the suck for a few years uh so it's a huge year for the new orleans saints they they're one of these teams that just pushes the envelope of the salary cap every single year they start every year they start

their off season by cutting five players or renegotiating five players and for the people who don't think, oh, the salary cap isn't real. Look at the Saints. Go look at what they've done the last few years in free agency and tell me the salary cap isn't real. Because it's been an exodus and talent. They haven't really brought anybody in this year especially. They're basically running it back with the same team as last year plus a few draft picks. That's it. So they have a lot to get done. Yeah, I just, it's tough. It's tough for a team who, you know, they've, they had a really good drafting process for years, right? They were nail on the draft year over year over year. Well, then when you're up against a salary like that and you stop drafting as good as you were, the whole thing kind of gets bogged

down a little bit. So, well, and Mickey Loomis hates draft picks, right? He doesn't believe in trading back. He said it. He's like, why am I going to move away and get a worse player? So he's not like doing the things to help himself. Yep. Like, what do you mean? What do you, that's a stupid idea that you're not going to trade back because you don't want to concede getting a lesser player. It's about value, dude. Like, and give yourself, like, you can't be that arrogant in your own scouting process to think that you know, like you're always going to get it right. Give yourself

more darts to throw at the board. Especially when you're up against the salary cap and you can't actually bring another talent. They're signing guys the minimum contracts. Like, they're, yeah, exactly. They need more darts to throw for sure. Not less. And they keep trading up. It seems like every year. I can't

appreciate that they do prioritize the trenches. With that said, on this offensive line, like, Nick Seld a very probably your starting left guard. And I liked him coming out, but we got to see it. You got to see Trevor Penning take that step. Ramcheck, the reports there are terrible, like might not play this year. So now you're going to have Penning Fulaga, Sal DeVerry, as three of your five starting offensive linemen, like, good, I mean, Eric McCoy, sees or he's good players, but like three players that it has to kind of come together.

And then there's like Derek Carr, like Derek Carr's not a quarterback that you're going to be good just because he's your quarterback. And we'll risk averse player, bad in the red zone, He was a mess last year, dude. It was like go ball or check down last for him. It was like there's nothing in between. No reading defense is nothing. Go ball or check down. I'm not, I'm nervous.

I love Chris Alave. I love Rashid, man. I feel like those two guys are ballers. And I think people know about Alave, but Shahid, man, every time I watch the Saints, that dude is just like making impactful plays. So I'm excited there. But, I don't know,

Alvin Kamara feels like a declining player. In the word is, he's about get a big extension. Insane. A salary cap hell team is going to give a big extension to an older running back. It just, it doesn't make sense. They already have an older running back getting paid and Jamal Williams. Right. Yeah. Don't love it. Defensively, you kind of expect this seem to be good. They've been good defensively. I don't love Dennis Allen, Dennis Allen, the head coach, but I think the defensive coordinator version of him is just fine. I think, I mean, I think it's a rock solid unit. Maybe certainly you want Brian Brisee to take a step in year two

with Colin Saunders and Nathan Shepherd at defense tackle, but I think they're loaded on the edge. I think they have a really good safety tandem in Jordan Houdin and Ty Matthew. DeMario Davis is an unbelievable linebacker. I like Pete Warner and Willie Gay as running mates. I mean, Marshawn, Adamor, if he's healthy, he's awesome. I like Paulson and Debo and how he's come along. I think Alante Taylor and the slot's going to be an important development.

I think it seems to be good on defense. To me, it's good how good is their offense can be. I couldn't agree with you more. Their defense is good no matter what. their secondary is always good. Even when there's been years or where, like they'll be down to like their fourth and fifth corner in a game and they're secondary still balls out.

So really good scheme there. They protect those guys well. I love you mentioned Warner and Willie Gay. They have so much athleticism in the second level. It's crazy. They also added a clique Hudson, who's more of a special teams guy, but like they have dudes who can flat out run. So a lot of, this is what they're good at.

They're good at, you know, finding those mismatches and coverage and exploiting them. Like the other way around, we're typically an office. offense is doing that. They, they have all the correct pieces to take guys away. So if you think you have an advantage, you don't against the New Orleans Saints. I really like Kool-Aid McKinstree as well. Yeah. I'm a big fan of his game. So they got him a second round, if I'm not mistaken, day two. Good player. So that's the Saints that leaves us just the Carolina Panthers. Nowhere to go but up, right? I think that's kind of the idea here. I think that this is a team that I think Dan Morgan in his first offseason as a GM, I can appreciate,

I can appreciate him trying to elevate the floor of this roster and understanding that, like, whatever you think of Bryce Young doesn't matter. Like, he's the quarterback that you have everything in the world invested in. And your job is to now try to make it work around him. And I think with what happened at Guard last year for them, where they played like six right guards and seven left guards, it was insane. To go out and put the money there. I mean, was it an oversaw.

spend for like Robert Hunt? Yeah, no doubt. Was it an overspend for Damien Lewis? Yeah, no doubt. But that's like, that's the bad team tax, right? Like, part of the deal is part of living in this world where you got to sign free agents, uh, to fill out your roster. But if Bryce Young's your quarterback, I think that pocket depth matters so much. Not only do that, but you also have to be able to run the ball. Those guys should jump start that in a big way. Joe, we've talked about it privately. I'm not sure we've done it publicly, but I love what the Carolina Panthers have done. done so much this off season. It makes me truly happy. For one, whatever you think about Bryce Young leading into the draft doesn't really matter. He's their quarterback, as you said. So you got to do what you got to do to surround him and give him the best chance to succeed. You have to get a proper evaluation on him. You couldn't do that last year.

So for me, it's not just bringing in those guards, but it's Dave Canales. Seeing what he did with Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield, the scheme that he's into deploy is going to help Bryce Young's biggest deficiency, which is, one that he's short and two that he has the slowest trigger known to mankind canales is going to give him a little room to operate with the slow trigger and protect him from being too short they bring in a stud like dante johnson people jo people don't know how good dionte johnson is still apparently i see this on twitter all the time the dude is an absolute baller people can't forget the early early career drops right that's what it comes down to they can't get it out of their head yeah he's just a bonafide

separator though our our separation data on him is absolutely insane he's he's i think he's the only guy to be top five in the two years of data that we have in both years awesome so to get bryce young a guy who can separate should help him speed that process up right where you're getting the ball a little quicker you can rely on a guy being we're supposed to then you go draft xavier legate who's a big play threat javian sanders who's a yak guy he's going to basically they're just giving him brice some more layups the dude needed layups they're giving him some more easy throws some change moving potential without him having to carry the weight. Offensive line should be much better this year.

Jonathan Brooks, a legit three-down back as well. And running backs don't really move the needle a ton, but it could make Bryce Young from a psychological standpoint feel better for running the ball well. I have a nice dump-down target. I think Chuba's decent as well. Miles Sanders stinks, unfortunately. But I just love what they've done.

This whole off-scenes has been about getting Bryce Young to a better spot. And I think they're killing it with the resources they have, too. Yeah, they didn't have a ton, and I think that this roster looks a lot different. On the defense side of the football, I mean, obviously Derek Brown has really emerged as a premier talent at defensive tackle. They bring in Judevian Clowny. Of course, they trade away Brian Burns. Didn't get a huge return there, but they lean into Clowny and DJ Wanam. They have a young player in DJ Johnson that athletic.

They moved up to get in last year's draft. Of course, a lot of speed with Amari Barno. Shaq Thompson returning from injury. That's a big storyline here. Josie Jewell now brought in. He's going to be the Mike linebacker for Giro Averro, who of course they have time on tasks together from their mutual time in Denver.

So that'll be an easy transition. I think what this defense is going to come down to is how much pass rush can we get? And then on top of that, can J.C. Horn stay healthy? Because when that guy's healthy, he's really, really good. But I don't think they have

the corner depth maybe they've had in recent years, um, right now. Like, Dane Jackson's probably going to start for them. And I, I've watched all the Dane Jackson you can ever imagine. I think he's an awesome three, like a C.B3. I don't necessarily like love him as your other guy. And then especially your other guy when J.C. Horn has been as injury prone as he's been. So like, are we good enough at corner? Do we have enough edge rush? I like the spine of this defense. Yeah. And Dane Jackson without a pass rush behind him is a scary thought as well, right? Like that's right. Not a lot of ball skills, right? Yeah, and multiple skills.

He will give up ground at the top of the stem as well, or at the top of the receiver stem, rather. And then on top of that, Eviro wants to get into a little bit more of a blitz pattern. They blitz at a pretty high rate last year, 32%. Some of that was necessity. Well, the necessity probably grew, right? And then you bring in guys like Judeavian Clowny and DJ Wanam who are good pass rushers in the context of exotic blitz looks and disguises, right? Those guys aren't one-on-one beaters. those are guys you need to line up creatively and get the matchups with the blitz.

So I don't love their corner situation for a team that's going to blitz a lot with a passers that might not get home is for sure scary, Joe. Like J.C. Horn, great. Xavier Words, even as a box safety, fine. But Dane Jackson, Troy Hill, I get a little nervous when you talk about a blitz heavy team and putting those guys on islands. Well, on a guy that was really important to their blitz packages was Frankie Louvo, who they didn't retain, right?

He went to Washington. And so I mean, Josie Jewell, I don't, I don't think of them as a dynamic blitzer. And, you know, Shaq Thompson coming off of injury, we'll see there. So it's going to be a better football team, though, right? Like, yeah, they have to be better. I don't know that they're a threat in this division. I mean, I think they're very much on the outside looking in when it comes to that conversation. And you could probably talk me into any one of the other three teams is the winner.

But steps were made here in Carolina. How good is Bryce Young? Right? How good is Bryce Young? He'll have a better opportunity to tell us that this year. That's what this whole season is about to me. Just find out how good we think he can be. Does he take a big step forward? Do you have so much invested in Bryce Young where like it's 2025 as well? Like if there's a situation where you have to like give it its full opportunity to breathe and manifest itself, isn't it this situation where you gave up the whole world to get Bryce Young?

No, it's sunk cost. Like I hope that's how they see it. I think the worst thing you could do is cling to a mistake like that. Yeah, he would need to take a good step forward for me to feel comfortable, like, making plans for the future with him. He was that bad last year. I mean, he was that bad. How do you see it shaking out? Who's your winner here? I think I'm going to go Tampa Bay to repeat his division champs with a strong push from Atlanta. I think there's enough question marks in New Orleans that I think they're going to fall off. And then Carolina, I don't think they'll compete this year, but I think they'll definitely be better. I agree that it's down to Tampa or Atlanta. I kind of want to go Atlanta. I can see it. I mean,

Kirk, like, how much does he elevate what they do on offense? So much, so much. And with, man, it could be Tampa as well. It'll be a good race. And I mean, this, this is the division that has, you know, 7, 8, 9 win champions all the time. So we'll see if that happens again this year. It's crazy, though. People kind of throw away Tampa as just like, oh, they, they were a division winner from a bad, bad division. They still probably sting. They won a playoff game, dude. They went and beat the Philadelphia Eagles, the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles.

They went and smashed them, beat them handily. The Eagles team was an absolute mess. It was. But I just don't want people throwing away the bucks. Like some winner of a bad division, when they went out and they won a playoff game. They were the hot team down the stretch. There were a lot of teams that didn't want to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the worst division winning team last year?

Who's the contender? Houston. Yeah, probably. Yeah, Houston would be the other one. Well, the way the season ended, Philly was pretty bad. Yeah. And then Detroit, no, 49ers, no. Yeah. So it's not that crazy of a take. But I mean, I think they're a respectfully good football team and they certainly got hot. Yeah. See what they can carry into 2025 or 2024. We're not jumping ahead yet. No, dude, no. All right. Well, sweet. That's going to do it. We are done. We have what, one more division, Joe? AFC West. Defensive rookies next week.

Okay. AFC West and defensive rookies. All right folks, remember, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read. Thanks for listening. We are out.