Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Ranking NFL WR groups + Ideal Pass Catching Unit Draft

Episode Date: August 1, 2024

Welcome to First Read, your go-to podcast for the latest in NFL analysis and insights. Join hosts Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino as they rank the top WR groups and have some fun drafting their ideal pass-catching group. Whether you're a fantasy football enthusiast, a die-hard fan, or just looking to stay informed on all things NFL, "First Read" has you covered. Tune in for expert opinions, detailed breakdowns, and engaging discussions every week. Don't miss out on the ultimate NFL podcast experience! Where to find us: http://twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First read. We are your first read, the film and analytics podcast featuring Mr. Joe Marino from lockdown and myself, Brett Whitefield, the C-O-O-O-of-FantasyPoints.com. This podcast is powered by the FantasyPoints Data Suite. Let's get after it. Joseph, before I bring you into the show, I do want to tell the listeners to go over to the YouTube page, Fantasy Points YouTube page, click subscribe. turn notifications on. If you're not watching the video element of the show, you are definitely missing out. When Joe and I getting these little silly tiffs, there's lots of facial expressions that go on. Joe usually can pick up off my body language

where I'm at in the conversation. And that's all fun. So you should definitely go do that. There's also a ton of other great content on the Fantasy Points YouTube page. Personally, I think it's one of the best fantasy football-driven YouTube pages out there. So make sure you go.

turn notifications on, subscribe, you know the whole deal. Anyways, Joe, welcome to the show, my friend again. I did have something I wanted to start this with and kind of, I wanted to pick your brain on something. But first, how are you? Brett Whitefield. I'm doing well. I'm excited for today's conversation. So before I kind of give you that, I'd like to, to know, like, what do you want to,

what do you want to pick away at my brain? So, yeah, and this is going to, this is, this is, I've been wanting to ask you this for a while now. but you are a guy who lives in this world of do not disturb on your phone. Oh, man, yeah. It's, it's, I've, I don't think I've sent you a text in the last three years that wasn't met with a do not disturb tag or a phone call. Yeah. The crazy thing, though, and this is where I really want to pick your brain, is your response time, despite always having the do not disturb up, Andrew, your answer rate on phone calls is exceptionally high. How does this happen?

Like how? what I really want to know is are you actually costing yourself more time? Are you constantly checking your phone? Or do we just have great, you know, are we just synced up? And you're just, you just, yeah. We're synced up, man. I kind of know. I have a little spitey sense about when Brett Whitefield might want to contact me.

And so I try to make sure that I'm observing my phone. But like, there's a multitude of reasons why my phone pretty much lives on Do Not Disturb. First of all, I record a lot of podcasts. And I can't be happy. you know, alarms going off, uh, especially when you're like an Apple guy, because then it comes through your computer and I can't, I just can't have it. I can't have it going on. But also like my daughter is on my phone a decent amount and I don't like the notifications. I can't have them going through to her or else I'm never going to see half of it. Um, and then also like, I think it's

just the part of the world that we live in right now where distractions are are so easy to have. And like there's a lot of good data out there that supports it. I think the average, like, you step away from your work, the average time to get back on task is 28 minutes. Yeah, I mean, I got to protect myself. I'm very like, I'm into time management, structuring my day, like all of that. I'm very into a very like regimented person. And what gets me off track is if I am just like stuck in my phone, wasting time doing things that aren't important when I could be on task.

So a multitude of reasons. But I think to the root of your question is how do we sync up so many times? I kind of know. I know when it might happen. Because I'm usually thinking about contacting you about the time you contact me. That's awesome. Well, it's,

it's a little inspiring because as someone with four kids and a wife, I've often considered using the feature more than I do. But it's this weird tension of like every time I separate myself from work, it's like harder to get back in because I miss so much. Like we've got, it's a creative world and a lot of creative people live at night. They don't, they don't do as much work.

nine to five, you know, there's like guys like us. Yeah. And so what happens is, is like, I go on do not disturb for a few hours. Kids all go to bed. I grab my phone. Next thing you know, I've got 70 something unread messages in work chats. And I'm like, yeah, it just now I've just cost myself so much time because I'm reading through having to catch up. But it's not an excuse though. And I probably need to be better about it. Work chat, work chats happened for me on my computer. And so, yeah, those applications are readily available for me at all times on my computer. it's all the other stuff man all the other stuff you know my my wife sends me memes all day long you know what i mean

i got i got to be able to compartmentalize a little bit here and not watch you know the the corgi that jumped into the swimming pool you know to save a baby duck you know that's we're going to save that for later on not in the middle of me trying to rank uh all the position skill groups in in the NFL you know everything's got a time at place well that was a good tease into what we're doing joe well brett whitefield we've had enough, man. We've had enough of your ridiculous love for the Los Angeles Chargers, wide receivers, as you personally have an ax to grind, I think, with Mr. Justin Herbert, with the arrival of Harbaugh

and some of those Michigan biases along the way. We had to sort this out. You know, we've had a lot of debate on where the Chargers, past catchers rank. And so our objective today, Brett Whitefield and I, have both individually ranked 1 to 32, the pass catcher groups across the NFL. And we both have different methodology,

but the one thing that is constant is that we said we would examine this through the lens of the top five options in the passing game. For some teams, that might be a couple of tight ends. Could be three receivers, could be four receivers, could be a couple of running backs, different team to team. So we took every single one of those five. We quantified it, how we wanted to quantify it.

We'll both disclose how we got to these conclusions. We rank them one to 32. So what we're going to do today is we're going to disclose our individual rankings of the past catchers across the league in terms of the teams they play for. Then we're going to debate some differences. And Brett and I were similar on a lot, but there's a few that we're really different on. So we're going to break that down. And then after all in that, we are going to have a skill player draft where Brett and I draft a group of five players that we would have as our preferred eligibles for the primary amount of our offense and get into the. why behind. We're both going to get five really good players, right? But I think the interesting

part of that conversation is going to be, why did you pick this collection of players and where do you envision that offense going? So this should be fun. Let's do it. Let's do it. All right. Well, we need to get into methodology, Joe. Yes. So I guess I can start us off. So my methodology, I really value what I call math changers, like the highest level. So like, you know, a Tyree kill, example as a math changer. He, he forces defenses to play a certain type of way. And if you don't play that type of way, he will make you pay for it. So those top, that upper echelon of wide receiver, you know, whether it's a Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson, I really extra value those guys. To me, I'd rather have Justin Jefferson with two bad players or average players than a collection of

slightly above average players, if that makes sense. You know, this is sort of a change for me, too. I think like five years ago, if you'd ask me, I'd be like, oh, you just need three solid receivers. That's how you build a wide receiver room. No, I kind of like, you know, those, the upper tier. I think that really makes things easy on your quarterback. There's a continuity with the offense. It's like, we know the offense runs through this player, even if he's not the target on the play. Like a Tyree Kill changes the math, whether he's being targeted or not, right?

He's going to dictate terms a little bit. And then aside from that, I like diversified skill sets. So a team, and we'll get into this, that I really, love is the San Francisco 49ers. They have a multitude of weapons that can do different things and they complement each other really, really well. And then I would say lastly, I really value separation, wide receiver separation or tight end separation, guys that can beat man coverage and, you know, just find ways to get open. I think that's such a valuable trait. I think the days of really, you know, praising contested catch only guys is over. I think we're, we've moved on from that point in the NFL.

So to recap, I love the alpha dogs that are math changers. I love complimentary skill sets to round out a whole unit. And then I really, really, really enjoy separation. I think those are very important traits. I like your methodology. And I agree with a lot of what you said there. Those are things that I value as well. In terms of how I put together my list, step one was, all right, who are the top five options in the passing game for each team?

And the way that I was able to come to that was, went to a great website called fantasy points.com. And I found the projections that exist on there. And so I went through and I took every single team's projected top five guys in terms of receptions. And I put them one through five in terms of option one, two, three, four and five. And that gave me a control, right? Where it wasn't so much me saying, I think it'll be this guy is the four. You know what I mean?

Like I just went through that and thought that gave me a really nice control. You're more of a company man than me. I'll just say that. I didn't do that. I mean, I'm not the CEO of Brett Whitefield. So, you know, I'm kind of new around here. I'm trying to do my part. Also, I really do love all the features that Fantasy Points.com offers data suites off

the charts that live in there. And so it's cool to check out the stat projections as well. So I did that. Now I have my option one, two, three, four, and five for every team. So from there, I went through and I graded every single player on a scale of one to five. And a five is a special, special player. A four is an outstanding starter. A three is an average starter.

A two is a fine depth player. And a one is replacement level. So to give you like very practical examples, a five score for a special special player is your Tyree Kill, your Justin Jefferson. You're four for an outstanding starter. Think DJ Moore type player. For a three, an average starter.

Think Jake Ferguson, right? Just like a fine starting tight end in the NFL. For two as a fine depth player, we're going to use Brett Whitefield's favorite player in the league, Kaleaf Raymond. You know, a nice depth player. You know, not a primary part of your offense. But, hey, if he's your fourth or fifth guy, you're fine with that. And then a one is replacement level. These are your jags.

You're just a guy. Like you can find anybody that's qualified to get an NFL contract to do whatever that player can do. There's nothing super special about it. So I went through and I gave every single player, whatever 32 times five is, they all got their own individual score. then from there I had to think to myself, well, your primary options need to be worth more than your fourth or fifth option. So if your option one, it accounted for 35% of the total score. If your option two, it accounted for a 25% of the score. If your option three, 20%, option four, 12% option five, eight percent.

And this gave me this wonderful numerical output that at the end of the project, I sorted it. And that was the order of my rankings for the. catching groups across the NFL. All right. I got one question. Sure. What did you do with rookies? Was there a cap on the score? Oh, thank you. Thank you. It's almost like you can see the same notes that I have and you realize that I didn't say that. And I thank you for bringing this to my attention. For rookies, I capped it at a three. So if you're a rookie player, the most points I can give you as a three. And I'll be honest with the only player that was a rookie that got a three is Marvin Harrison, Jr. And so my methodology with rookies was rooted in my perception of you as a prospect.

coming out. And so three was like, okay, I think you're going to be, you know, the cat's pajamas. Yeah. Two, yeah, I like you. One, yeah, a little lukewarm. So that's kind of how I, how I scaled the rookies a little bit differently because they, they are different in this conversation. Cool. I think our methodology should lead to a lot of similarities, but there will definitely be some differences here. Okay, Brett Whitefield, methodology is out of the way. It's time to give the rankings. And so we'll go back and forth. We'll go bottom 12, middle 10, top 10. We'll disclose the rankings.

And we'll identify the biggest discrepancies. And we're going to have some debates, figure out who had it right and who had it wrong. So let's do it, Brett Whitefield. Starting with your number 32 down to 21. Why don't you disclose? All right. Those teams.

I went with the New England Patriots at 32. The Denver Broncos came in at 31. The Pittsburgh Steelers at 30. The New York giant. at 29, the Baltimore Ravens at 28, the Atlanta Falcons at 27, the New York Jets at 26, the Arizona Cardinals at 25, the Washington commanders at 24, the Los Angeles Chargers at 23. They didn't quite get as high as maybe I thought they would. The Buffalo Bill's at 22.

The Carolina Panthers round out my bottom 12 at number 21. All right. So we got some differences here, but we got some similarities. here's how mine stack up 32 down to 21. 32, we agree, New England Patriots dead last. 31. Hi, Los Angeles Chargers. Here's where you belong in this conversation.

Denver Broncos at 30. The New York football giants at 29. And I realized through watching hard knocks that that's like, that's on this like in their office building. It says New York football giants. So I don't know if that's really like I wonder what the, what the team is actually filed under. Like, what are the giants?

Are they the football giants of the? giants. At 28, I have the Arizona Cardinals. 27, the Buffalo Bills. I'm a big homer. You know what I mean? The fan goggles are thick. Washington commanders at 26. Pittsburgh Steelers at 25. Green Bay Packers at 24. Carolina Panthers at 23. Indianapolis Colts at 22. Baltimore Ravens at 21. That's how I have the bottom 12. Correct me if I'm wrong. We only had one, like we had different slots. but of the bottom 12 we had pretty much the same 12 right except for one team am i am i wrong in saying that yeah a little bit it was two it was two yes two sorry two yeah all right your middle 10 sir my middle 10 starting with number 20 the new orleans saints number 19 the green bay packers

number 18 the jacksville jaguars number 17 the indianapolis colts number 16 the cleveland brown Number 15, the Tennessee Titans. At 14, I have the Kansas City Chiefs. At 13, I have the Los Angeles Rams. At 12, I have the Las Vegas Raiders. And at 11, I have the Seattle Seahawks. All right, you're wrong about some stuff in there, but I'll give you mine, and then we'll talk about it.

At number 20 for me is the Jacksonville Jaguars. 19 is the Seattle Seahawks. 18 is the New Orleans Saints. 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 16, Kansas City Chiefs. 15, the Tennessee Titans, 14, the Los Angeles Rams, 13, the New York Jets,

12, the Las Vegas Raiders, 11, Cincinnati Bengals. Top 10 times, sir. Top 10, all right, this is where it gets real. Coming in at 10, I have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 9, the Dallas Cowboys, at 8, the Detroit Lions, at 7, the Chicago Bears,

at 6, the Minnesota Vikings, at 5, the Houston Texans, at four, the Cincinnati Bengals. And then for my top three, I have the Eagles at third, the dolphins at number two in the San Francisco 49ers coming at number one. All right. I know that we're just reading a list and this is going to get a lot more interesting here in a second, but we had to tell you where we had them and then we're going to get into the debate.

For me in the top 10, number 10, I have the Browns, nine, the Dallas Cowboys, eight, the Atlanta Falcons, seven, the Houston Texans, six, the Chicago Bears, five the Detroit Lions, four, the Miami Dolphins, three, the Minnesota Vikings, to the Philadelphia Eagles, and number one, the consensus number one, the San Francisco 49ers. So Brett Whitefield, we've delivered the list, and in doing so, we've identified a number of discrepancies. I'll tell you what those are, and in just a moment, we will debate them. We have the Atlanta Falcons, 19 spots different.

Brett Whitefield had them 27th. I had them eighth. We will spend some time there. Cincinnati Bengals were another team that we were pretty far apart. Brett had them number four. I have them at number 11. So we still pretty high. Like you have them super high.

I have them a little bit high. Seven spots off there. The New York Jets were 13 spots different. Brett Whitefield 26th. I had them 13th. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brett Whitefield number 10. I had them 17th. Seattle Seahawks. Brett had him 11th. I had them 19th. So that's eight spots off. The Baltimore Ravens, you had them 28th. I had them 21st. So that's seven spots.

And then, of course, the reason we're here, the Los Angeles Chargers. Brett Whitefield has them 23rd. I had them 31st, which is eight spots off. So what we've done is we've identified the teams that we were seven spots or more off. and we're going to really focus our conversation here in just a moment on those teams. So got to take a quick break, but when we come back, we are debating the big differences. All right, Brett Whitefield, there's no other place for us to start other than the Atlanta Falcons. Not only is this a team that I have eighth and you have 27th, but it's the, you know, it's the biggest, it's a chasm, okay, it's 19 spots.

We don't see this very similar at all. And so I guess you have to convince me that I'm too high. I have to convince you that you're too low. I'm not sure that we will come to a consensus, but I'd certainly love to hear from you as to what you're not seeing here with Atlanta that puts them, I mean, really towards the bottom of the league here. I see this as a two-headed monster in Drake London and in Kyle Pitts. I think they're fine players, right?

But I am very worried about them after that. So Drake London, he's been very good. He ranks real favorably in our separation data that will be coming to the Fantasy Points data suite in August. But outside of that, Kyle Pitts was like second last and separation generated last year among tight ends. Only Tucker Kraft was worse, which is kind of crazy. Furthermore, their third best option is probably Bejan Robinson and he's a running back. Actually, I didn't disclose this to my methodology, Joe. I do positional value is very important for me also.

Running backs don't really affect the past game the way that fans. especially fantasy football player fans think they do. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, every other running back over like the last five years has like a negative EPA when targeted. That's actually insane. So throwing to your running backs is a losing play in the NFL. That's a blanket statement.

Christian McCaffrey is the only exception. Obviously, I'm talking about a certain target threshold as well. I'm sure you could find me some running back with five targets where it was a positive play. But generally speaking, throwing to your running backs is a losing proposition in the NFL. So I just because you have a really good pass catching running back like a Bidgen Robinson doesn't make me feel any better about your situation. So with him being their third guy in my opinion, I'm not entirely sure what the projections at fantasy points.com say, but that's a big red flag for me.

Darnell Mooney has been trashed the last couple of years. I know that's that's a harsh way to say it. I do think in this offense, he will play a much more suitable role for his skill set. And then after Mooney, I don't even know who their fifth option is. I have Rondell Moore written down. Obviously, that has not really been a thing since he's been in the NFL. So I'm a little worried about this Falcons team, obviously ranking them 27th. For me, it's like Drake London and then a bunch of question marks all over the place.

All right. So this is why I rank them number eight. And of course, I have Drake London down as their go-to weapon here in this passing game. And I think you're the one that's really got me excited about Drake London because I'm not a contested catch guy. Like if that's how you make a live and that's a tough way to make a live. I don't think there's sustainability. The best thing you can do for a quarterback is make yourself available. You get open, right?

Like we're, we can both really find common ground there. But Drake London as a big bodied wide receiver, I remember going into that tape study at USC and thinking myself, I'm not going to like him. Yeah, I'm not going to like this guy. And then you watch him and you're like, uh, yeah, he's good, right? He gets open, right?

He runs routes different than most of your bigger bodied guys. And then the hands and ball skills body control are off the charts. So I'm a big Drake London guy. I'm impressed with the production that he's had to this point. his career despite Arthur Smith, despite terrible quarterbacks. I think he's going to be a monster this year. So I'm high there. And I didn't score him overly high. Like I gave you my grading score. I gave him a 3.75. So I thought that was like a conservatively aggressive number. I definitely feel differently about Kyle Pitts. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. I'll acknowledge that.

I think there's so much untapped potential. There's a reason he went so high in the draft. And I I don't think that he has limitations. I just don't think he's been developed and utilized in a way that best showcases what he can do. Now, with Zach Robinson, with Kirk Cousins, I mean, yeah, I think that the production should should be significantly better. But I'm leaning more into what I believe Kyle Pitts is more than maybe what the last couple of years have shown us he is under those circumstances in Atlanta. I have a world of questions for you and things that I love to.

get into with that bomb that you dropped about throwing the ball to running backs being a negative play in terms of EPA in the NFL. Like, I wasn't ready for that. And it has my head spinning quite a bit. I think we need to spend some time there at some point. But as somebody who prior to five minutes ago valued past catching running backs, I think the world of Bejan Robinson in that capacity and a multifaceted player. And I didn't grade him where I graded him because of his.

running ability. I really buy into the receiving skill set. And so like guys that I'm very high on those top three, obviously it's going to elevate you. I get it with Darno Mooney. The last couple years have been bad. But I'm, I mean, I hadn't forgotten the player I watched Tulane. I love them, man. I remember it was everybody loved KJ. Hamler that year. Okay, love them. And I'm like, I don't know, man. I think Darno Mooney's better. I think he's just flat out better. If you want a small receiver that has wheels, please get the kid from Tulane. and not the one from Penn State. That aged very well. And I'm, I'm eager to see him in Atlanta. I mean, in so many ways that I just went through and talked about how Atlanta's held back these players.

I mean, you think Justin Fields and the Bears offense, the last couple of years have completely held back Mooney. So again, a little bit of optimism there. And then I would agree, like, who's the fifth guy is a Charlie Warner? Is it Tyler Arsier? Is it, who's the guy you said, Ron Del Moore? I don't know about all that. I think you got like three and a half good options here. And I think it's fair. Like I'm seeing a glass half full here when considering them moving full. So to your point, you know, because I'm willing to be moved on stuff, you know, and I think one thing I want to point out is Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney,

ironically, all ranked 115th or worse among eligible receivers and catchable ball rate. these three guys specifically dealt with some of the worst quarterback play the NFL has seen over the last few years. And so with Kirk Cousins added to the mix, it's an instant upgrade. It's really hard to judge what a Kyle Pitts put on tape last year. One, one, he was playing through an ankle injury. And two, he was dealing with the likes of Desmond Ritter and Taylor Heineke. It was a, and Marcus Mariotta, right, at some point? Yeah, it was a really bad situation.

Really, really bad situation. So I can give them some benefit of the doubt. For me, it just was a lot of projection for me to say, say, you know what, you're going to be higher than this. I do think Drake London has the talent to become a stud. One of these guys were talking about a math changer. Going into year three, we'll see if he gets there. I do think Kyle Pitts has the chance to be another needle mover at tight end.

We just haven't seen it. He was banged up in 2022, banged up again in 23. 2021 tape was really, really good, though. So we'll see where he lands this year in year four. But ultimately, I just didn't like how much I had to project these guys to get them into a spot that was closer to where you had them ranked. The most important thing, and I, I can't believe this is the first time I've said this in our, however many episodes we've done at this point.

I, I kind of hate lists. Yeah. Okay. But what I like is, like, I don't care about how you put a list together. I don't. I care about your process and I care about your analysis and why you say the things that you do. Whatever football opinions you have, as long as they're defendable, I don't really care. I'm interested in learning from you and seeing how you see how you.

see things, but like as long as you give me, if we're going to disagree on something, tell me why and it makes sense. And that's fine. And I think this conversation about Atlanta perfectly aligns with that. All right, dude, like I get it. I understand your side of this. I'm certainly projecting more. I'm leaning more into like the scouting and the skill sets that I believe exist within these players and what it can be. And you're leaning more into, okay, what have what do we actually learn? Yeah. And so I will, I can, I can sleep well at night. with how we, how differently we see the Atlanta Falcons. I don't know about the rest of these.

So let's get in this next team here. Thankfully, the rest of these, there's not a 19 spot disparity. So it should be, right. So, hey, we were cordial in the one that we have the biggest disagreement on. Cincinnati Bengals, you have them at number four. You got, you think these are, this is an unbelievable situation. Top five in the league. I have them at 11th.

So I think it's a good situation, but I mean, I don't quite have them that high. Let me, let me talk to you a little bit about how I got here with the Cincinnati Bengals. Because everyone in the world is going to talk about Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. And you should. That's amazing. That's awesome. That's as good of a one, two. If you're ranking the top two receivers for every team in the NFL, yeah, Bengals are going to be in the top five. Well, we've got three more players that we're factoring in this equation. And Brett Whitefield, the Bengals don't have anything else.

They have nothing else. Nothing. I mean, literally nothing. Do they have a starting tight end? Do they have a starting running back? Do they have an actual third receiver? I know they have human beings that fill these spots. But I can only get so excited about Andre Yosevis and Charlie Jones and Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson and Mike Keseki and Chase Brown and Zach Moss. I mean, these are just very ordinary football players in my mind. So I love the top end here. I love it.

It's as good as you can find. But when we're when we're factoring in all five, they leave a lot to be desired. And remember, like I explain my methodology. I'm terrible at math. 60% of my grade is your top two players. And they are eating up that 60%. They're not getting much of that remaining 40% with how I stack this up.

Yeah, so I didn't do an official weighted score like you. I probably should have. But if I were just to use your methodology for a second with the way I'm thinking about it, I'd have Chase is a five. I think he's a math changer. And then T. Higgins is really close to a five for me. So I'd have two guys that are basically fives.

I think T. Higgins is a wide receiver one in the NFL. actually I think he's better than that. I think he's probably a top 12 wide receiver. If I were to rank out my receivers, I think T. Higgins would fall in my top 12. He scores well in pretty much every metric, yards per route run. First downs for route run,

we've actually found is more predictive than even yards for outrun, and he scores really well there. He pops and all the separation data. Plus, we know he does have those body control contested catchability, which, again, it's not something I super prioritized, but it's a little cherry on top when he can also be a good route runner. for a big-bodied guy, he really is an exceptional runner. So I really do love those two.

I'll concede to you that what's after that is projection. Like I'm a big Jermaine Burton guy. I loved him coming out. Florted with the first round great on him, Joe. So like for me, they're throwing in a potential first rounder who had some off-field stuff, which is why he fell into a wide receiver room that's already loaded.

And I get running back, which I've already said I don't value a ton, is a big question mark with Zach Moss and Chase Brown. And then Mike Gisicki leaves a lot to be desired at tight end. So it's not a great collection of parts, but the top is so freaking strong. And I've already kind of planted my flag on the fact that I really do value these math change type guys. And I feel like they got two of them. So I just feel real strongly about that, man.

They have two guys that just they make it happen no matter what. I respect your congruency between your methodology and how you landed here. Like you think the world of Jason Higgins. And because of that, not much else. should matter. I mean, the fact that you're as high as you are in Higgins, I really like T. Higgins. I think you're, you're certainly in an even more favorable headspace than I am. So I understand your methodology and how you got there. I, and I know this is a little bit contradictory of what I said about the Falcons, but the projection component with Cincinnati

is harder for me with those players. I think they're less proven. And I think it's in some ways are less dynamic. I think the X factor here is Jermaine Burton and what he can be. But for as much talent has exist there. He's had some big opportunities and you wish he maybe did more with them. So I mean, obviously going to this offense with Joe Burrow, what a great opportunity. He could be unbelievable. But I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit shy there, to be honest with you. Let me ask you this, because you do have the Falcons ahead of the Bengals, actually. So you think the discrepancy with the bottom three is, is so large between the Falcons and Bengals that you wouldn't rather have Jamar Chase and T. Higgins over Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Like I feel like I would take that situation, like even if I conceded to you that the Falcons were, say, top 10, I still would rather have the uncertainty with their bottom three than I would the Falcons bottom three by like a mile. Because Chase and T are that good to me. Yeah, I mean, they're separated by five one hundredths of a point. I mean, it's very tight. So I mean, yeah, like one team is higher than the other. But if I were to go like 0.25 higher on a different player, If I would say I have T. Higgins is a four.

If I would put him as a 4.25, let's find out what that would do, Brett Whitefield. That's the big one right there. That would shoot. Yeah. That would shoot them up to number six. Okay. All right. So like, I mean, it's.

Tiggins is the difference actually between us. I view T is almost a chase and you view him a little bit. I think I do. Yeah, really, really good player. I don't, I don't necessarily necessarily see the number one that you do. I see. I gave him a four. Like that's the DJ Moore bucket.

It's a T. Higgins bucket. To me, it's a good spot for. him. But you think he's a top 12 player? Well, there it is. There's the, there's the fraction of a point that we're looking for. It's, it's tough to say things like, I think Teagan's the wide receiver one when we haven't got a huge sample of him being that.

Jamar Chase did miss some games last year and the year before. And when T. Higgins is on the field alone, he did carry that offense. He was outstanding. So I think in a small sample, he did appear to be a true wide receiver one, but it is hard to plant that flag really, really tightly. And even at times with, without Joe Burrow

in the lineup, right? I think that says a lot too because you could look at Joe Burrow and Teagan say, wow, perfect, perfect marriage of accurate thrower that has a receiver that's very good with body control and in elevating and all that stuff. But yeah, yeah, he's a good player. Okay, so that's the Bengals. Next up is the New York Jets and man, am I disappointed that we're different here?

Because now I've got to say all these nice things about the Jets. This is actually the second biggest gap we have, right? 13 spots different. Brett Whitefield has them 26th. I have them 13th. And I think a lot of this predictively before we even get into the conversation is going to have to do with you not caring about Brees Hall. You've already said you've already said you don't care about that. So that's a big part of the equation here.

That's their number two weapon in the passing game. And I have him scored pretty well. So we'll flesh out the conversation. But my suspicion is a lot of this is going to lie there. Yeah. And I'll say this. Brice is probably the closest guy knocking on to CMC territory, especially if he comes back fully healthy this year. You saw him ramp up that workload at the end of last year where he looked, you know, back to being the dude.

So if he continues that, he really is knocking on that CMC door. He just needs a target volume now to kind of back that up. But, you know, there's a chance he's a needle mover in the past game. You don't see many of them. I think, you know, him, Jemir Gibbs, probably Bijan. Those are the guys that would really threaten CMC for that throne. But anyways, yeah, for me, I don't value brief right. now a ton i think we're we're projecting a little bit there and that aside i really do like

brees hall i just think like mike williams coming off the acl not in a good spot i don't think he was even playing good football last year when he was healthy still really contested catch dependent the very yolo ball dependent and we know rogers doesn't do that by the way rogers is not a yolo ball player he will he'll protect the ball at pretty much all costs he's not going to put in harm's way i don't know how mike williams and erin rogers fit together maybe some back shoulder stuff i'm not really sure. And then Tyler Conklin's probably the next best thing there. And I think Conklin's a perfectly fine starting tight end in the NFL. In fact, I got him on a lot of fantasy teams because I think the opportunity outweighs where he's being drafted right now.

He's just not a needle mover whatsoever. And then their fifth spot, Xavier Gibson are we looking at Malachi Corley, who like Corley is not a rookie I liked. Like I think I had a fourth or fifth round great on him. It looks like he's not even going to be the starter for now. It looks like Gibson and is that starting slot guy there. So I just really don't know what to do with these guys. Man, as much as I love Garrett Wilson, I think he's an absolute stud. In fact, if I go through,

he's the lowest of my top 10 ranked receivers. He's by far the lowest on this list. So I just, it's a weird collection of parts to me, man. I understand where you're going with this. And I mentioned certainly my grading of Breece Hall as their number two weapon in the passing game. We see it different, right? you don't value that running back piece. You said that out loud. We both agree on Garrett Wilson.

I think what Garrett Wilson's been able to do in two seasons with the quarterback play that he's had under those circumstances, I mean, pretty freaking impressive, man. I'm sure he, nobody's going to be happier than Garrett Wilson if he gets 17 games of Aaron Rogers this year. So I think they got a legit one. I think they have a dynamic pass catching back. I feel like Conklin is a fine tight end, like just perfectly fine. He can start and do the job. And then I think another area where I graded them a little bit more favorably is I have some benefit of the doubt for Mike Williams. I'm concerned. I'm very concerned.

He's always hurt. And I think that's kind of the overarching thing with the Jets is a lot of players in meaningful spots that have injuries. And so I think they're one of the most health dependent teams in the entire NFL. But I didn't really factor too much of injury into this. I kind of looked at guys and like, okay, what's the best version of who you are? and where do I think that stands? And so I gave him the benefit of that out. Like if you were to say, okay, Joe,

factor in like Mike Williams and, you know, you think he's going to be banged up and, and a shell of what he was. Okay, yeah, it's going to have a little bit different grade. So I think that's where our differences come. The valuation of the running back and me not really docking them for injuries. Of course, whoever the fifth guy is, I had Corley. I mean, he scored about as low as of a grade as I can give anybody in this process, right?

I mean, I think he's fine for whatever they think he's going to be as a yard. after catch player, that's fine. But for my methodology, that's not going to move the needle as a rookie. Right on. I'll throw this to, so Garrett Wilson, we did praise him. He deserves it seventh overall last season in wide receiver win rate running routes. So he's definitely a dude. Wow.

If Aaron Rogers is Aaron Rogers, he's going to have a monster year, monster year. I wonder what the, what do you think the single season Jets record is for receiving yards. I think he could do it. Probably Brandon Marshall, right? Back in the new. Yeah. He had some, he had some banger years. Well, he did that in like three different cities, but. Yeah. Hey, way to, way to go. It is Brandon, Brandon Marshall, 1,500 and 2 yards. It seems like Wilson should be a candidate to top that this. Yeah, I think he can do it. Especially with the X game. Yeah. Then Don, Don, Don Maynard just living. I mean, he's got, he's got four the next five biggest seasons in the history of the Jets, 1,200 yards.

There's, there's only been six, 1,200 yards seasons or more. in the history of the New York Jets. He's only got one. He's got number one. Maynard has four, and then Laverneus Coles has the other. Yeah, there's your entire history. Elthune never did it, never did it. Okay, there's your side tangent for today. Can't promise or it won't be another one.

All right, so we got through the Jets. Next up here is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where you have them at number 10, and I have them at number 17. And so this is finally a situation where you're the guy that's higher on the team than I am. So tell me why I need to like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers receivers a little bit more. For me, Mike Evans, like he is, dude, he's been the most underrated receiver in the league. Since he's been in the league, it feels that way, at least.

We can talk streaks and all that. That doesn't matter to me. I'm not a volume stat guy. I look at the tape and some of your advanced metrics before I check into that. the raw numbers there but this dude is he's an anomaly like he is he's very rare for a guy that size to be as good of a route runner and separator as mike evans is is absolutely crazy to me even last year at 30 years old he ranked top five and wide receiver win rate and when you adjust for what he's being asked to do which is a lot of vertical routes that are downfield

we know looking at the data we know the further downfield the route break is or the routers run the less separation you generate because cornerbacks have time to recover. There's not as big of a window there. So when you adjust for that, his win rate over expectation is even, I mean, it's massive. Like this guy is an absolute needle mover. He's another one who's been subjected to really poor quarterback play his entire career, James Winston. I mean, Baker Mayfield's fine.

He's a fine starter, but he's not good. And so what Evans is doing at his age with the quarterbacks he's done it is really remarkable. and I just think he's a he's a dog and then furthermore Chris Godwin compliments what he does really well and I know Godwin hasn't quite gotten back to pre-ACL Chris Godwin but the dude is still really really good really good out of the slot phenomenal at finding creases in zones and those saw spots and setting his routes down and he's also really really good after the catch can make guys miss keep the chains moving big fan of their two-headed monster there and then I think you know I've been reluctant to project guys but I really like Trey Palmer as a prospect.

I liked Jalen McMillan as a prospect, and I like Kate Otten a lot as past catchers. Oh, Rashad White is the other running back, by the way, that I failed to mention in that discussion of guys that I think could be needle movers as running backs. I think he's knocking on the door. Very good past catching running back. Very good after the catch.

So, you know, I'm a little more willing to project them in a positive light because I do like their players a little bit more than some of the other teams we've discussed. you know, my, like, admittedly, that's why you evaluate players, right, to give yourself a bias. So I like Trey Palmer. I like Jill McMillan. And I like KDott. And so I feel like I'm comfortable projecting those guys forward a little bit. I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong. I think I was a little low here. I think my scoring was low. I think I, and I'll be honestly, I went into this. I had Mike Evans as a 4.25. I think he should probably be a 4.5. I had Chris Godwin as a 3. I think

he should probably be a three and a half. I thought and the Kate Otton's the other one. I had him as a two. I think he should be like a two, two, five, two and a half. So if I do make those adjustments, it puts them at 13th. I think we see this a little bit more similarly. I think candidly as I went through and I listened to you and I thought more about it, I think I was low on scoring. So I appreciate that. Coming up a little bit here. I think I was sleeping on him a little bit. I got him at 13th now. In the landscape of receivers, Joe, where is Evans for you? So for me, it's like, you have like that top tier of Jefferson, Chase, CD. I feel like Evans is the first guy of the next tier.

And that's just how I'm too high on him, but that's how I view him. I feel so bad that I'm falling into something that so many people have fallen into. And it's like disrespecting the Buccaneers. Like some of their player, like Levante David, disrespected. Ronde Barber, completely disrespected in the landscape of what he was able to do as a nickel player. And like the position exists because of him. It should be a Hall of Famer. I think I fell into it here.

And Mike Evans is on that list of like, like the dude shows up every year, has monster production, scores tons of touchdowns, and he's had very little stability at quarterback. I mean, if that's not a dude, I don't know what is. And so, yeah, I think I need to give him more credit. And even Godwin, like, everybody talks about Chris Godwin. It's like, dudes have three consecutive thousand yards seasons. Yeah. You're like, it's like, what are we doing here? For the last five years.

Yeah, while dealing with the steel injury in there. Yeah, it's like guys. back from injuries and people have commentary about how they're not back, but they're, and they're not producing. Like, Godwin is. So, yeah, I think I was too low. And I'm not afraid to admit that. Okay. We got more to get to. So we got some more teams to debate. We've also got our skill player drafts coming up. So be short to stick with us, folks. All right, Bryant Whitefield. Next team to debate, we've got three more is the Seattle Seahawks. You have them at 11th. I have them at 19th. This is, this is the first team we're going to debate where I feel

really good about the top three here at least in dk mccath tyler locket and um jsn i feel i really like all three of these guys i think they all the complementary skill sets here too really stand out to me you have pretty clear outside wide receivers your x and your z and dk and locket and then you got your slot monster and jsn um we didn't really talk about factoring coaching into the mix but when you bring in a guy like Ryan Grub who's going to live in 11 personnel, something we haven't seen from the Seattle Seahawks team in over a decade. Like, I'm pretty excited about what's going on here. These, this trio of receivers is arguably one of the best trios in the, in the league, in my opinion. And I know what I went, Noah Fant and Zach Charbonnet is the next two guys. I don't know where you

went. Okay. So like, you know, I don't necessarily feel strongly about those two guys at all, in fact. And if I was using your methodology, they might be like 1.5s to me. But the top three there, I think I have like probably three fours or two fours and a three point five. So I just like the trio of receivers here and they're going to be a past heavy 11 personnel team. So I very much like what I what I see with the Seattle Seahawks team. I can see the Seahawks, Seattle Seahawks moving quite a bit for me here. So they're 19th and that doesn't seem, is that where I had them? Hold on because I know I made it.

Yeah, 19. So I had them at 19th. I know that's not a very favorable position, but I think there's a lot of upward mobility here. And I think a lot of that starts with Jackson Smith and Jigba. I just want to learn more about what he is and what that role is going to be and how dynamic he can be. I like them a lot. I had a first run great on him.

I like him. I just want to see a little more proof of concept. Metcalf as the number one. And I like D.K. McHaff. I think I've been one of his biggest fans since the first time I laid eyes on him. I've been a big D.K. There's a,

there's a lack of efficiency within that bothers me. You know what I mean? Like I just want him to be a more efficient football player. And I think that stems from stylistically kind of who. he is. He's going to run all of his routes on the linear plane, on the vertical plane, right? He's not, the horizontal routes aren't really going to be there for him. And like, he's got a win with leverage and make guys play through him. And I think that's going to lead to some attractive throws from the quarterback, but that, I mean, coming down with a higher

percentage of what goes his way is something that I wish was true about D.K. I know he's got good production. I'm a big fan. I just, I want a little bit more efficiency from a guy that I think is going to lead your team in targets. I'd actually like to see some of that. shift to JSN and see if you can't maximize more of your chances to throw the ball to DK. A little bit worried about some decline from Lockett. And so that, you know, vintage locket's going to be a four all day long for me. Instead, I grade him as a three, two, five.

And then Charbonnet's fine, right? Like, he's a fine pass catching back. So I think, I think if JSN becomes like a three and a half or a four, that's going to move the needle in. And Noah Phant, like, I feel like there's a lot of ability with Noah Phamp, but like there's like ball skills issues there and like he's never quite met the promise of like this crazy ridiculous athlete so i i contextualize him a little bit differently than maybe some would as well no a fan he you know notoriously tested insane at the combine right but like when you watch his tape he never was a

very um his change of direction skills aren't great he's very tight in the hips wasn't really good at like a sink and explode type route runner i think that iowa system really captured his ability because they run a ton of like Yankee where he's just it's a lot of vertical stuff for him right and yards after the catch he was he was okay despite not being able to break tackles he was okay at finding you know knowing when to put on the jets and maximize his yard after catch

there but yeah he just hasn't really done anything in the NFL I think that his inability to run really crisp routes is kind of plagued him but ultimately yeah I mean I think our difference here is just we're I'm probably higher on JSN right now I didn't see a ton of decline from Lockett

if I'm being honest. I also don't think that system they were playing was very favorable to those guys at all either. It's very much boom or bust, a lot of vertical stuff with not a lot of, you know, not a lot of route running potential and win potential there. It'd be fun to see this year with Ryan Grubb and that offense. I would say this as well.

There's, like, I had Seattle at 19, but I simultaneously have zero concerns. You know what I mean? Like, I don't think this is a problem for them. I think that part of the reason Seattle might be successful is this group.

You know what I mean? I think there's like a, there's a there's a there's like the the output here there's so many teams that are very tight like like a quarter of a point could put a team a team much higher up so i think they're in this bucket of teams that are like i don't know kind of like from i would say 12 to 20 is like very closely graded for me 22 maybe and so they're like in a bucket where like very small factors could move a team up or down i'm unconcerned about seattle and what they have as their past catchers around Gino Smith. Okay, we got next up the Baltimore Ravens.

Seven spots different here. You have them 28th, which is pretty low. I have them at 21st. I'm just going to come out and say, I'm kind of mad at myself. I think I missed this one a little bit. I'm undervaluing Mark Andrews a little bit here, I think. I'm looking at Zay and Bateman and thinking, you know, receiver group is ugly, but you forget, like, Andrews is there one. And he is a dang good player, like very good player. one of the better route running tight ends in the league. You can line up out anywhere wide, in line, in the slot. Even in the backfield, they do some fun stuff with him in the backfield.

Good on contested catch balls, really good in the red zone, obviously has a connection with Lamar that's uncanny as well. I think I undervalued Andrews here. And if I were to get a mulligan, I'd probably bump them four or five spots, if I'm being honest. It happened to both of us. Yeah, yeah. And there's a name you didn't mention, Isaiah likely.

I have him as their five. Okay, yeah, he's a baller, right? And so he matters a lot to me in this equation. What's interesting is based on my methodology of using the top five pass catchers from the fantasy points projections. I have Zay Flowers is the one, Mark Andrews is a two, Bateman is a three, likely the four, Nelson Aguilar, the five. It doesn't even include like Derek Henry, which is a big reason why so many people are

optimistic. I know that you don't care about that, and I mostly don't care about running backs. But I think there's something unique about him with Lamar in that backfield. And the type of production that they've gotten out of guys like Gus Edwards, who I don't think much of. And like you have like a billion times better version of that with Derek Henry. And I think the way that you can do some fun schematic things there for Todd Monkin is really fun. And so I say all that to say that Derek Henry didn't even factor into this for me. Well, I don't should he have though?

This is past catchers. This isn't run. This isn't like right. I agree. I agree. But nobody wants to see. Derek Henry with the ball in their hands on a swing route. No, you know.

Sure. He's been great on screen passes, actually. One of the more underrated screenbacks in the game for sure. It's just, you know, you're not dialing up, you know, man beaters with them, though. You know what I mean? Yeah, I think that's going to look different, right? With Lamar, there's going to be so many more eyes in the backfield than with Ryan Tannahill. You know what I mean?

It's going to be a different, different ball game. But, yeah, I think there's a, there's a potency anytime he has the ball in his hands where you kind of hold your breath and kind of wait to see who's going to get running. over. So, okay, we're not super different on Baltimore. The last team here before we get to our skill player draft is the Los Angeles Chargers. We already did it. I mean, really, I was saying, what more is there to say? I guess now that you've went through the process, right, you came in hot with like a billion teams in our last episode. In truly going through the exercise, like, did you learn anything on Los Angeles? Yeah, I did. So, well, for clarity, too, previous two episodes where we discussed this we were talking wide receiver rooms specifically

this is past catcher rankings so you know not that it changes a whole lot for me because i don't think uh i think what i learned is like there's a lot of similar teams at the bottom like some of these teams are are close like i can make an argument for the chargers to be worse than i have them i could put them down at 27 for i think i can make an argument for that to be honest with you because i think i'm just looking at teams i have right right behind them the commanders the cardinals and the jets Well, you have Scary Terry, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Garrett Wilson. Significantly better players than anybody the Chargers have, right? So I think maybe what I learned is, is like, it's tough down there.

A lot of these teams are really struggling after their first guy, to be honest with you. So the other thing that stood out, too, is the Chargers don't have anybody beyond their wide receivers. So if their wide receiver group isn't good this year, they're going to struggle a lot to pass the ball. like I mean what Haydenhurst will disley Gus Edwards These guys aren't catched they don't catch the ball I mean it's this is tough like if the receivers don't work out like I think they will like if Josh Palmer and McConkey aren't a good one two and then

Quentin Johnson doesn't take a step forward this team is going to be hurting they'll be drafting a receiver in the first round again next year I mean not to mention the DJ Chark I guess it's just yeah it's tough to add it all up and be like yeah you're good. Like even even when you were defending them, he still had him like as a bottom 12. Yeah, yeah. So it's it's never been overly rosy. Like what does that mean for you in terms of the outlook of this team? I think that's what the interesting part is, right? We can stack position groups on all that, but like how many games are going to win? Like, do you think that this is a fatal flaw for this Chargers team in year one with Harbaugh and Herbert? Or is it okay? I mean, kind of like I just said, like if it doesn't like I'm, I'm giving you the optimistic outlook, right? That's what I've done the last episodes. If it doesn't work out that way, this absolutely could be scary for them.

Especially, like, think about, like, Ladd McConkey's dealt with injuries every year of Georgia. What if that creeps up? And Quinn Johnson doesn't take a step forward. And now Josh Palmer's your undisputed number one. Like, this is rough. So Greg Roman can be creative with his scheme, obviously, like he, it's one thing he did good with Lamar is he gave Lamar some layup type throws, you know, using different personnel groups to kind of put the defense off balance and generate favorable matchups.

Now, whether they have the personnel, like, Greg Roman had a Mark Andrews at his disposal in Baltimore, right? He's not going to have that here in L.A. He's going to have to make it work with some lesser players for sure. But I do think that Herbert should get some easier looks than he's gotten with his last two coordinators, which is admittedly, he's been tough sledding. I know I've been the Herbert hater, right? But like, I do admit he's had a tough hand dealt to him.

So we'll see what they can overcome with Greg Roman now. But yeah, I think that's where we're at. All right. So we did it. We did the thing. We stacked them all. we debated the differences and now we get to have some fun you know it's really fun joe is i i pulled a bunch of stats i started pulling stats for like i was just going down the board and then i realized

halfway through like i'm not going to be able to talk about most of these teams because we're talking about differences yeah so i so i have a bunch of stats pulled hopefully i can use them in this draft right like that's right yeah definitely just pick the players based on the coolest stats that you have lined up and see how you do right um but yeah that's we're going to do a draft we're going to build uh What we think is an ideal past catching unit. Or should we snake it or should we just one, one, one, one. I don't know. I can't think it.

Let's snake it. Okay. And I'll give you the number one pick. Oh, good. I'll take it. I'll take it even with the snake. I'm going to take it with the snake for a very, very specific reason, which you're going to find out about right now. All right.

Are we ready to go? I can start the draft. Yeah, start the draft. With the number one pick in, what are we calling this? The NFL first read, build the ultimate. eligible group of skill players in the NFL. Pass catching in it. Thank you.

I was way overdid that. I'm taking Tyree Kill. Yeah, I knew you would. Yeah, I mean, you gave me the first pick. I'm taking Tyree Kill. There's nobody like him. There's nobody like them. I can, I mean, we can go with,

Justin, maybe you should pick Justin Jefferson. Okay, I will take Tyree Kill and live with the other receivers that I get. There's only one Tyree Kill. And there's nobody in the league that can bring that element of speed and ability to win vertical down the field with the overall package of a player that he is, right? With the route running, with the yards after catch, you want to talk about math changer. I think he's the math changer of math changers, right? You have to play defense differently because Tyree Kill is on the opposition.

And sometimes it doesn't even matter. Like, oh, cool, you want to like shade a safety to his side and try to cap him vertically. It doesn't matter if you can't win the foot race. Like, that's a great way to align in theory. but he beats that over the top safety all the time. And part of that's, you know, Tua gets the ball and he can anticipate it and get it out there and all that. But sometimes, man, you just got to, sometimes you're just not fast enough, right? Yep.

And he's, he's, he's unbelievably fast with receiver skill. He's like, he's a super scary player to play against. And because of the structure of this draft and because of who you are, I had to get Tyree kill right now. Yeah. I mean, he would have been my pick as well. Some other things that don't get talked about enough with Tyreek is what he can do after the catch. Like, yeah, he's this great deep threat, math changer there. He also forced 31 mistackles last year, which led the NFL.

I already said the most predictive stat for future production is first downs per route run. He led all receivers in that the last two years. Last year, you know, number one by like a mile, a significant margin. So really cool. They're also first read target share of 38.2%. So basically 38.2% of his targets were first reads, which led the NFL by, again, a significant margin. All right. My first two picks, are you ready for this?

I'm going to go, Justin Jefferson. I think he, you know, next to Tyreek Hill, he's probably the next best guy. A do it all type receiver, you know, he's a separatist. Pretty much every way you would want a guy to win. He can win that way. Obviously, Tyreeks a better downfield threat, but Jefferson, an aggregate. it does everything else at a really high level my next guy is going to be a j brown and i i talked complimentary skill sets this might surprise some people because i think you know you can make the

argument c d lam's a better player james a marches a's a better player but complementary skill sets a j brown's going to give me that deep ball production that you're getting with tyrie kill not at the same level phenomenal deep threat but also probably next to debo samuel the best yards after catch guy in the league he forced 25 miss tackles last season he does this every year. I mean, how many slants is AJ Brown caught that he's taken 70 yards? I mean, it's, it's unbelievable, uncanny ability to get loose after the catch and break tackles. So I feel like that one two punch is significant. I also like that I can play both those guys in the slot if I want to. Got some, got some scheme diversity there. I can become unpredictable and keep the defense on their toes, get matchups that I like.

You know, you talk about corners and tackling and some people are willing to gloss over it. I am not one of those people, right? I am not. I am not. I am not. I think it matters a ton if you're a corner and your ability to tackle. Boy, oh, boy, you better get, you better put your big boy pants on when A.J. Brown's lined up over top of you, man. That dude carries people, man. Carries them straight up, like literally just brings them with him. He's, he's a dog.

He's a dog. And A.J. Brown was certainly on my list of, of, uh, players that I had in mind to draft. Um, but I figured once I took the first pick, I knew I wasn't getting Justin Jefferson. Yeah. All right. So I'm up. I get to go back to back here, right? that's the whole point of a snake draft.

Okay, a player I have to have. And I'm picking strategically because I want to build it a certain way, but I'm also wanting to block you, right? That's the way I'm making my decisions. I had to have George Kettle. I had to have him as my tight end. So he's my pick here to start, I guess we'll, to finish the second round, if you will.

Versatility is unbelievable. And I mean, a tight end that's legitimately a three-level threat that can win all over the field that brings, unbelievably, unbelievable energy to the field that blocks. I think he's such the total package. And in San Francisco, they have so many great skill players. We ranked them at number one. Wasn't close for me, even with my scoring.

I don't think it was close for you either. George Kittle, like a lot of mouths to feed with the 49ers. And like, he's a guy. When you think about some of these top tight ends in the league, they get 120 targets or so. Kittle hadn't topped 100 targets in five years. Right. You know what I mean? And he still puts up the numbers that he does. Like, I'm guessing his yards per targets have to be pretty freaking off the charts. He's a special player, special person. I had to have Kittle. So this was my opening to get him and I wasn't going to pick him one.

Yeah. But I had to have him. And so he's my choice right here. The versatility is what is the reason why I'm making him to pick here. Complementary skill sets to Joe, just to interject. Tyree Kill, stretch. that defense out, George Kittle catching shallows and then rumbling for 30 yards. I mean, absolutely unbelievable after the catch. He ranked, gosh, he was top five in yards after catch last season among all players.

Not just tight ends. He think he was fourth, 7.51 yards after catch. That is insane as a tight end to rank fourth in that regard. I mean, just incredible. And the thing is, there's other good tight ends, right? I'm not going to say that, but like there just wasn't another kiddle. It's had to have it.

I had to have. All right. So that means I get to go up again here. And I get another wide receiver. I got a speed player in Hill. I've got unbelievable versatility and kiddle at tight end. Now we're going to get buckets. We're going to get us a physical player. You went ahead and got AJ Brown. I'm taking Jamar Chase. Right. I want that guy that like you better you better be ready to play a physical brand of football and line up on the other side of Jamar Chase. Like his superpower is he's stronger than you. And on top of that, the ball skills, the body control he runs routes well three level threat i think we're both going to have great lineups there's i mean right this that's not going to be hard the way that these players compliment each other i think

is really special and that's what i'm loving about my top three right now of hill kittle and chase i love it i think you got a nice combo going hill by the way he he is also very tough at the catch point despite his stature that's another thing people forget about him he's right he really does everything i mean he's kind of a freak but his ability to win contested catch balls at his size is is wild so he pairing him and chase together as ball winners as well as rut runners is crazy so all right my third pick to start the third round and same theory here with you using kittle to block me i'm going to go the only running back that matters wow you did it you did it that's christian mcalfrey i'm going him third if i can't get the

the needle moving tight end i'm going to get the needle moving running back here in cmc so yeah i've already this whole show, if you listen to it, staked my claim here on CMC being the guy. If you want someone to make a difference in the past game as a running back, that's self-examatory. The next guy, I went back and forth with who I'm going to take here. Initially, was thinking CD Lamb, but thought there might be a little bit too many, too much overlap with Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown. And I decided, you know what, I'm just going to get the best true slot receiver in the game. I'm going to go Amon Ross.

Oh, you did the thing. I did the thing. So my receiving core is Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown with Ammanra St. Brown in the slot feel really good about that and i got christian mcalfrey come out of the backfield so my top four uh feeling feeling juicy i'm on russain brown ranked fourth last year in first downs per run again the most predictive stat um it is the stat daddy so love it i'm feeling good about my team brett you put me in a spot my guy you put me in a spot because i sat there on thought to myself okay you pick cmc now i figured you're either going to pick another receiver or a tight end i figured you

going to go Kelsey or you're going to go CD Lamb. And I was going to say, okay, if you go CD Lamb and you leave Kelsey for me, I'll go 12 personnel. That's fine. We can do that. You know what I mean? That'll be just fine. But you left Lamb for me. I did. Do I have to pick a running back? Do you have to? I should, right? The spirit of this is that I should pick a

spirit of this is that you should. I wouldn't mind you going 12P though, but I think you at least need to have a back on the field. There are any teams out there running. Right. Right. Right. Right. I'll go ahead and get them both. right so i will pick a running back but it'll be last so now i have a choice to make and it comes down to three players Travis calcy and go 12 personnel which would be an absolute nightmare with this personnel cd lamb and give myself like a very attractive slot option or devante adams is a heck of i mean a very worthy selection as well and not like we're we're not building for the

future right we're building for the right now so i don't really care that devante adams is however old he is so what i'm really asking myself is do i want to be a 12 personnel team or do I want to be an 11 personnel team? I don't think there's a wrong answer when these are your options, but I have it down to Kelsey or Adams or excuse me, Kelsey or Lamb. Goodness gracious. All right, I'm going, I'm going CD Lamb. I'm going to go CD Lamb here. The reason I'm doing that is I, I think I like, I like Lamb for what he is as a player more than I like Kelsey. I think Kelsey is arguably the greatest tight end of all time, but I think he wins in a very peculiar way. He doesn't really run routes, right? Like he just kind of finds space and he has a

quarterback that can get him the ball. I think there's a little bit more of a universal appeal for what I can do with CD Lamb. And he, I mean, there's no, like I said, I don't think there's a wrong choice, but gives me that slot presence. Maybe he's not the true slot player that St. Brown is, which is absolutely insane that you pick St. Brown over Lamb. I love St. Brown. But I think that was a little aggressive. We're going to go 11 personnel. He'll be our slot player. We're not mad about it. Our The running back choice that I have to make, though, is a little bit interesting. Going Bejan Robinson. Okay.

Yeah, I think the skill is off the charts, man. I mean, like, I want, for me, for running backs to move the needle from me, like, I need do everything ability. I need pass catching. I need pass pro. I need short yardage inside running. I need you to be able to corner the defense and win off the edge two. That's Bejohn, right?

Like, that was one of the easiest evaluations I've ever done in the history of my life was Bejohn Robinson. Not hard to figure out who he is. And I think he's primed to be one of the great running backs in the league that do everything ability combined with the size and athleticism. It's everything. I got to have him here. It's my running back choice. I like it.

You mentioned there was three running backs. I'm guessing Brees was one. Was the other Gibbs? No, I only had two running backs. I had two. Oh, okay. It was either. I knew I was getting CMC or Bijan.

I didn't really care which one it was. No, no. After I took CMC, you said there was three more that you would consider. Three more players. Oh, gotcha. got you. Okay. My bad. Yeah. All right. Cool. I like it. I got some stuff on land that's pretty juicy. So 8th in first downs per route run. He also, you know, broke 22 tackles after the catch last year.

His slot rate, 58% of his routes were run from the slot. So he is a true slot guy. Despite that, he still ranked 14th in total win rate last year among wide receivers, which I believe he is the highest among guys that primarily played in the slot. So that's, that's, that's nice. Actually, sorry, Tink Dell is. But still, still very impressive stuff. So Ceeley Lamb is obviously a dude. You can just look at his production and figure that one out, right? Yeah, I think you've, you've been kind of a champion of that on us on this podcast, right?

You've been saying like, yeah. What's your line there? Is it he's the most productive player over the last two years or something like that? It was a turning point. It was like week 10 of the 2022 season where something happened between him and Dack. And he since that moment, he is, he's number one in every statistical category. Receptions, you know, yards per target, first downs per route, run, touchdown. It's ridiculous.

Like, it's like every single one he's higher than Justin Jefferson, higher than Amun Ra. I think those are the two, Tyree Kill is the other guy there. So ridiculous, though. Since that moment, he's been outrageously good. So I think you can make an argument he is. the top receiver in the game right now. I obviously picked Ammanr over CD, but it was more of the collection of the parts. I think C.D.

is a better player for sure, not saying Amman Ra is better. I think just considering I have Jefferson and A.J. Brown, I like what Amon brings to the table. Amon Ra brings the table. I think he's more of a true route runner separator out of the slot there where CEDY is more of a big play. He still lives on contested catches a little bit for my liking, but

there will be no contested catches with this offense, sir. Everybody's open. Everybody's open. All right. So my last guy, I got to decide if I should go 10 personnel here or if I should go because there's a receiver here. I'd still really love to have. But ultimately, think in the spirit of what we're doing, I got to go a tight end here. So this is tough.

Do I go ultra homerism, Joe, and pick two Detroit Lions? Or do I go with who I think is the best route running tight end in the game? Wait a minute. That's quite the cliffhanger. Who you think is the best route running tight end in the game. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to do it.

I'm going to go Mark Andrews. I'm going Mark Andrews. Andrews over Kelsey, over Sam Leporta, simply for the fact that I value separation at an insanely high level. And you already broke down Kelsey. He did a great job doing that as well. He is a zone beater. He has this uncanny connection with Mahomes.

It's not the takeaway from his career at all. He's been tremendous. But where he's at in his career right now is you have to wonder if he didn't have that connection with Mahomes, that telepathic connection, would he be putting up the numbers he is? Because I don't see a guy who is still winning with route running. He's not beating man coverage at a super high level, right? So I think Andrews does, though, highest yards for route run among tight ends against man coverage

the last three years. In our separation data, he ranks number one the last two years in route running, win rate for a tight end. So I think for that reason, I got to go with a guy I can count on to just win, beat his man, over and over again. plus he's great in the red zone and I think red zone scoring is important. So my team, Justin

Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Christian McCaffrey, Amonrauss, St. Brown, and Mark Andrews, your team. Tyree Kill, George Kittle, Jamar Chase, Cee Lam, Bijon Robinson. If you're watching this on YouTube right now, please comment who you think has the better skill player position group. I think it's me, but it's close. It's not like we had like 10 teams drafting here.

make it real fun, right? But, you know, yeah. Any final thoughts here? Thank you for not picking Sam Leporta. You're not a Sam Leporta guy? No, I really do like Sam Leporta, but I feel like, I mean, if you had him and St. Brown and picking St. Brown over CD, like, I think that you would have, there'd been some egg on your face for that. For sure, but I did clarify the stance there with the CD and I'm on, I think CD is a better player for sure. Yeah. But, but Leport, I mean, okay, so let's say no Kelsey, no Andrews, is Leporta not the next best guy? Yeah, I think there's a lot of appeal there.

Okay. I do. Loporta is, I mean, he had, what, like the greatest rookie tight end season of all time? Yes. Maybe this is the Bills part of me. That feels like Dalton Kincaid's historic tight end season where he was third all time in the history of the league and receptions for a rookie tight end and 10th all time or ninth all time in yards.

And like, just no love for that. You know what I mean? In a situation where he wasn't the number two. option in the passing game. You know what I mean? Like, you feel like Kincade's living in Laporta's shadow a little bit. Right. It's like, why? Like, why can't you look at their individual circumstances and appreciate both for who they are?

I like both a lot. In fact, Kincaid would probably be like fifth on my list. Right. Like I'm thinking, it might not be long before you might think Dalton Kincaid is the best route running tight end in the game. I ranked in our exercise earlier. I ranked Buffalo as high as I did almost because of strictly because of Dalton Kinket. So

anyways, here we go. All right. That's going to do it. Remember, folks, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read. Thank you so much for listening. We are out.