Fantasy Football Daily - NFL First Read | Top-10 NFL Coaches + AFC East Breakdown

Episode Date: June 27, 2024

Welcome to NFL First Read, your go-to podcast for expert NFL analysis and insights, hosted by Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino. In this episode, Brett and Joe rank their top-10 NFL coaches, diving into what makes these leaders stand out and how they impact their teams. From strategic masterminds to inspirational motivators, discover who tops their list and why. After unveiling their coaching rankings, the duo shifts focus to the AFC East. Get an in-depth breakdown of each team in the division, including key players, strengths, weaknesses, and offseason moves. Whether you're a fan of the Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, or Jets, this episode provides the detailed analysis you need to understand the dynamics of the AFC East heading into the new season. Where to find us: http://twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First read. We are your first read, the film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Lockdown and myself, Broil Whitefield, the CEO of Fantasy Points. This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite, cutting to the chase here. Let's just get right after. Joe, how are you, sir? Bro, Whitefield, I'm doing well. I'm excited for the 4th of July next week. But here's the deal, man. I won't be in town. So I'm not going to be able to smoke meats. My first Fourth of July with my smoker. So, oh, man, that's, that's sad. Are you, how do you feel about that?

Disappointed, like I'm letting people down. But I did have a successful turkey and I had a successful rib situation. So we'll, uh, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll enjoy the time away and get back after it when we get home. So, so the ribs went well. The ribs went well. I think where maybe I learned a lesson is that I had six racks on the smoker. And I thought that that maybe led to a little bit of inconsistency with, the texture that I was looking for.

And it got fast, it got hot fast, right? So like, you know, low and slow is the name of the game with pork. So it went a little quicker than I wanted to. But a great learning experience. The flavor was good. I just didn't get quite the texture I was hoping for. Nice. Now, did you finish them like on the grill or anything to get a crisp?

Or did you not even need to do that because you just? No, yeah. We kept them in the smoker. I did, I put the barbecue sauce on them and then back on the smoker for like 10 minutes in kind of like a foil boat. To kind of get some of that, you know, get it to the smoke. you know get it to tack up a little bit but the bark was really good i the texture like that piece was really good it's just maybe the consistency gotcha what are you doing for the fourth man what's the plan so my dad throws a big bash every year it's like a big barbecue you know we have like in my

family alone there's like three chefs right i know that you're quite the chef i've had your you've made steak and potatoes from it's really good yeah i'm not officially a chef but i do enjoy cooking and so uh yeah we just it's a big potluck there's probably gonna be like 40 50 people there oh wow hang out at the pool all day there's all kinds of cornhole going on and games 35 000 kids running around screaming and then fireworks at the end so it's fun it's a fun day you call it cornhole um i've heard people from the north okay and i'm from the north but i live in the south i hear them call it bags bag yeah cornhole or bags it's not or bags nobody says bags come on what it's i've heard bags used i have too but it's it's

It's not correct. Not correct. I agree. It is not correct. Bags? Usually if you, if you just said to me, hey, you want to play some bags, I won't even know what you're talking about. No clue.

No, that's what happened to me. I don't play. How do you play? Yeah. So where are you, you're going on vacation? Yeah. Disclosure are you going to a sunny, summery beachy spot? Yes.

Good. Yeah. Yeah, we've made this a yearly thing going to the beach for the fourth. My daughter loves it, man. loves the beach and she loves what's so cool about being on the beach of the 4th of July is the fireworks are literally everywhere, right? So you get yourself a condo that's like beachfront and you can just you can just look up in the sky and just see so many different fireworks and you don't have to leave your house and deal with the parking

and all that type of situation. So we'll have we'll have a great time. The goal is always to not get sunburned because that don't ruin your week, but should be fun, fun week at the at the beach with the Marino family. At the beach. That's a that's how all of Michigan is, by the way, because we have so many inland lakes. Yeah. There's lakes everywhere where I live. And so every lake has fireworks going off on the 4th of July. Beautiful thing, right? My house and, you know, I don't live on a lake, but I can just look up in the sky on the 4th and there's just fireworks going everywhere. So it's pretty cool. Pretty cool. But, well, we got an action pack show today, Joe, you're taking the week off next week. So we figured we just cram a bunch of awesomeness in this week. We're going to start with QB rankings. This is like, this is the topic that gets people riled up the most. And we're just going to go right into our time. top 10 QB rankings. Now, are we going to go 10 to 1 this time around? What do you mean? You think we'll have the same top 10 or say you want to start at 10 and go down 9, 8, 7, 6. Yeah, I think

that's a good idea. And I, one other thing I did, Joe, is I kind of lump these into, I think, archetypes as well. And I'll get into more of that. But one of the things I want to consider when we're getting to these rankings is like nature versus nurture. Because I think it's an important conversation when it comes to quarterback play. Like, are these guys awesome just because of them, because of what's in their body, the talent, or is there like a nature versus nurture element that makes these guys extra special? Yeah, I think it's cool.

So, yeah, let's start. I guess let's start with number 10. Do you want to throw first? Sure. I'll go first. I'm nervous, man. I'm nervous, too. Lastly, we were nervous last week,

but we had only one different in the head coaching. I think we're going to have more than one different this time. I think so, too. All right, number 10 for me, Kirk Cousins. Atlanta Falcons. It's hard to reconcile what he's going to be in a new situation coming off of an Achilles, there, right? Like, that's definitely a lot to think about. However, I'm not going to focus in what I

don't know. I'm going to focus in on what I do know, and that Kirk Cousins has been unbelievably consistent in the NFL. He's done it for multiple coaches, multiple teams. And, you know, I think that, I think he's overlooked. I think too much is made of, like, primetime Kirk. And I think all that's kind of silly. You watch him play. He's consistent. He anticipates. He's accurate. I think you got a chance to be a contending team every single year if you have Kirk Cousins as your quarterback. So here's what's funny. I don't have Kirk in my top 10, Joe, but I have, I told you I did archetypes, right? Yeah. So one of my archetypes is the Kirk Cousins archetype. So that kind of speaks volumes, right? Like I, there's a type of quarterback in the NFL that's succeeding right now

that I think kind of started with Kirk Cousins. And I think these guys are obviously better than Kirk Cousins. But I call it the Kirk Cousins family, or it's like, you can win with this guy. He can produce for you, but the environment around him has to be good. And I think that's what Kirk has pretty much been his whole his whole career. He's pretty much been in that Sean McVeigh, Kyle Shanahan style offense, his entire career going back to Washington and then in Minnesota with Kevin Stefansky and Kevin O'Connell calling the plays. And he can produce for you at a super high level. He can run your offense. There's just not a lot of extra he gives you. So I think he's a guy you can win with, not a lot of extra that he's going to give you. And so there's, I have a whole

archetype of quarterbacks. There's, I think, three of them from that archetype on this list today. Kirk wasn't one of them. I get it, though, man. He's incredibly consistent. I mentioned the nature versus nurture thing. I think he's been a big product of nurture more than he has been nature, if that makes sense. So I don't disagree with anything that you just said. But in doing this, it's very enlightening in that I think there's drop-offs quick, like in these tiers of quarterbacks. And candidly, I had a hard time reconciling putting somebody that I have below him above him. So I went, I went through and I ranked all 32 so that I thought that would give me a really complete look at this landscape. And his neighbors in this

conversation that are like right behind them are either players that are very much what you're talking about, nurture just don't have the resume yet for me to slot them higher or young players that look good, but I don't know. Like, I just don't know how good they are yet. So they could certainly jump Kirk, they're knocking on the door, but I leaned into more of what I know about these players at this point in time. I know it's a top 10 list, but because of what you said, I'm curious, who are the guys right behind them for you? Well, is this going to spoil things? Oh, I'll give you that. I'll give you that. Let's circle back to that. All right, we'll circle back. Yeah, because I am curious if we see, if we see these guys eye to eye. But all right, so I guess I got

to throw my number 10 out. And this, this is why I was nervous because I already know I'm going to get death threats over this Joe. Oh, God. But before we do, we got to take a quick break. And we've briefly touched on it on the show before, but Justin Herbert to me is a guy who has very much underwhelmed me in his career. And going back to that nature versus nurture discussion, the nature there is great, physical tools all day long, incredible talent in his body, incredible arm, all that stuff.

He checks all those boxes, but the play and the results on the field just haven't been great. And that's despite the fact that the nurture element has been pretty much fine for him. He's had a decent offensive line, a good offensive line in terms of pass protection, actually. He's had very good weapons. I mean, decent play callers. I don't know what else the guy needs. And I know it's unfair to require a quarterback to drag his team to the playoffs, but the team hasn't really been bad. Now, I'm throwing last year out because last year, there's a lot of.

injuries across the board. Defense was an absolute mess. I didn't expect him to pull them to the playoffs last year. Years prior, though, I felt like he really just left a lot to be desired in terms of results. And the league is a results-based league. He's the quarterback. And I don't care about what any stats. There isn't very many analytical points, actually, that point in Justin Herbert's favor either. Brett, I've been trying to reconcile your Justin Herbert takes. And I think I figured it out. Okay. This is, this is me trying to be. Bit of a therapist here. Can I peel back the layers here and figure out what the heck's going on with my friend, Brett

Whitefield and why he doesn't appreciate Justin Herbert more, despite calling him a top 10 quarterback. So let's have that lens over the top of this. But when we were doing the head coaching thing, you said something that stood out to me is that you really value aggressive natured head coaches. And I get it, right? Lions and what you saw from Dan Campbell. And I think that you in your heart, you really like Brandon Staley.

I think you do. And you like the aggressive decisions that he made. And that you're, you are, you are holding Justin Herbert accountable. What have you also said about Justin Herbert? You called him a coach killer. I think that's what this is coming down to is that you, a stylistic head coach has been. And I think it's because I think you're holding Justin Herbert accountable for that. And I think it's the other way around.

I think that Brandon Staley held Justin Herbert back. You want to talk about variables like that weren't in favor of Justin Herbert being successful. I understand that he has, he's had weapons at the same time, you know, Mike Williams has hurt all the time. How many offensive coordinators has the guy at? Oh, buts. Right. Like, so three. Three. I, is it, Kellanmore, Lombardi, Stiking? Was he, was Winston Hunt? I don't think he wasn't Anthony Lynn. Anthony Lynn, right? Yes. I mean, like, there's like a lot of different play callers, like not being able to establish that, but despite that he's been able to win.

Like, I, and I, with what with a bad head coach that can't figure out his own defense. How many, they went to the playoffs, what, once one year. Right. And they, blew it against Trevor Lawrence. Like I get it. One point lead just evaporated. Now that's very much Brandon Staley's problem, but you're telling me you couldn't score three more points in that second half. Like holy crap, bro.

You're talking me out of him being a top 10 quarterback. I agree with what you said, by the way. I was a little bit right about that, huh? I will, I don't, I don't actually, I don't really like Brandon Staley as a head coach, but I'm not, I don't want to hold Justin Herbert

accountable for his issues, but I do like the aggressiveness that so staley was supposed to be some analytical mastermind coming over from the rams and he just wasn't like he made a lot of really bad in game decisions but i i don't know i just i think the the situation's been good and like quarter there's good quarterbacks top 10 quarterbacks that have done a lot more with a lot less than jesson herbert at some point we have to hold him accountable now i like i'm glad you pointed out i still have him in the top 10 because i do so for the haters listening he's still in my top 10 i'm just not willing to you're willing to to go top five in in in the bucket the archetype i have him in by the way is guys that can give

you a little more because they have a lot of raw talent in their body so they're he's not in that kirk cousins archetype but he is in that probably next archetype where it's you know if there's a play to be made on the line i think he has the talent in his body to do it and i you know i don't know he's my number he's number seven for me okay so we're we're we're not that far off yeah but it's you know what it is it's like this is this is the big thing that i talk about with dress draft analysis, right? Everybody's got rankings and lists, right? So great. Here's your list. Cool. Love your list. I care so much more about what you say. Sure. You know what I mean? And so that's why it's like, yeah, we're, we're off by three spots. But I don't know. I feel like you're such,

you're like super reluctant with your placing of Herbert. It's almost like it was painful for you to put it at number 10. Like you didn't want to. Yeah, maybe. I mean, yeah. I think here's something you'll learn about me fast, Joe, if you already don't know this since we've been friends for a long time. I whatever, a lot of times my talking points are based on what I feel like narrative is. So I feel like Justin Herbert is routinely called a top three, top four quarterback in the NFL. So when I tell you, I think he's the 10th best quarterback, that seems like a positive on its face. But I feel like I have to combat the narrative that you're really low on Justin Herbert. Like, what are you watching?

So I feel like I'm already taking a defensive critical posture, even though I like the guy. I just don't like him as much as consensus. Does that make sense? I understand where you're coming from. And now we have this beautiful marriage of your favorite head coach in Jim Harbaugh, against your least favorite quarterback in the league and Justin Herbert. Should be fun to monitor that throughout the course of the season together. Absolutely. All right. You're number nine, Joe. Come on. All right. Number nine for me is a guy that I'm sure is on your list as well. just got paid. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, in at number nine. I think it's really hard,

it's really hard for quarterbacks to be successful in more than one place. That was something that I listened to Kurt Warner talk about. He was on Locked on Dolphins with Kyle Crabs recently and talked about, hey, you know what? Like, you don't see a lot of guys that are able to be successful somewhere and then go somewhere else and be successful. Because I think so much of quarterbacks, right, like in the tenure that you get with an organization, they become keenly aware of who you are as a player and know how to build around you and know what you're not good at, right? Like I think Russell Wilson's a great example of that. I think Seattle knew exactly the problems that Russell Wilson had and knew how to kind of work around that. And that's why they never

let Russ cook, right? There's a reason they didn't let them do that. I think you're seeing that with the Sean Watson a little bit. You know, I think Tom Brady's an exception, but just think throughout the course of league, these big name quarterbacks that go somewhere else. Derek Carr, right? It doesn't always really work out. Jared Goff led the Rams to the Super Bowl was very productive every season and everybody said Shaw McVeigh. Shaw McVeigh mates him, right? He's got to be, he's in his ears until 15 seconds, tell him exactly what to do.

All right, well, then explain to me the last two seasons with Ben Johnson and in Detroit and what that offense is. And I say this very respectfully because I think the Detroit lines are very good football team. We're going to talk about them later on today. But going into last season, when this offense was awesome last year, going into last season, what did he have? I mean, a rookie tight end and Sam Apporteur that wind up being pretty.

pretty good. A new backfield in David Montgomery and a rookie in Jemir Gobs. Gibbs worked out, but going in this season, we didn't know. I mean, I'm and Ross St. Brown's a good receiver, but like, what else do they have a receiver? Josh Reynolds and like the hope of Jameson Williams. And he was, he was the trigger man for this offense. I think, I mean, I have a lot of respect for Jared Goff and how he's been able to transcend a lot of situations, how he's been able to lead two very deep playoff runs, including once to the Super Bowl. I think that people struggle with Jared Gough a little bit. Stop struggling. Watch him play. He's a good player. And I think he should be in everybody's top 10 list.

You nailed it. You nailed it, Joe. So I have Jared Gough as my six. And in that Kurt Cousins bucket, I was talking about that. He is my highest ranked quarterback in that archetype of player. Just some quick fantasy points, data suite stats that they throw at you. He's top five in every single discernible accuracy metric over the last two years. That's a, you know, adjust a completion percentage, catchable ball rate, the high accuracy bucket that we chart. So the, you know, the top level throws. His ratio of hero throws to turnover really throws is excellent. I think it's the best ratio in the NFL.

He has a 114.3 pass rating from a clean pocket. Over the last six years, four of those seasons, Jared Goff has had his averaged top five EPA per dropback. There's only one other quarterback that did that. his name is Patrick Mahomes. Incredible across the board. Now, does he have limitations? Absolutely. I mentioned the clean pocket stat.

You don't want to look at the stat when he's not in a clean pocket because it's ugly. So in that nature versus nurture discussion, I think Jared Goff does require quite a bit of nurture to pull the most out of him. He's got a great supporting cast, great play caller, awesome offensive line. And so they do make it a little bit easy on her, but he's executing what he's supposed to be executing at the highest level or one of the highest levels in the league. So he's my six. I said that already.

Yeah, he's my six. But I couldn't agree more with everything that you said. Okay. So I've given you my 10 and 9. And through that, we've gotten your 10 and 6. So. Yeah. I'm going to throw out my 9.

And I just want to say that my 6, so starting with golf all the way to my 9 are very close to me. Like I could have pulled names out of the hat and would have been okay with where they landed. So I have Dak Prescott at 9 for me. Dakota Raine Prescott. Yeah, I went back and forth with him because obviously at the top of his game, when you're watching him ball out and see what he does, he looks awesome. He looks the part, right?

The Dallas offense has been explosive. They've been great. You know, he led the NFL in all kinds of metrics last year, advanced metrics. My favorite stat from him is first and catchable ball rate. It's like there's no cleaner staff and just, you know, I'm just going to give my receivers the best chance possible. He's got a really good blend of being aggressive. but also taking what the defense gives you, like he's got a good head on his shoulders as far as that goes,

executes the offensive game plan at a really high level. And last year specifically, he actually, a lot of people soured on him because of the way the season ended. He actually earned more of my respect last year because how much of what the Cowboys did fell on his shoulders. Years past, he's had that robust run game, the two-headed monster was Zeke and Tony Pollard to rely on.

Last year, they had nothing going in the run game at all the entire season. there were O-line issues sporadically through the year, and he pretty much carried them to the playoffs, and I know it ended ugly, but I don't think this time last year I would have had DAC as a top 10 guy, which would have been counterculture, obviously. Now he's firmly a top 10 guy to me based on kind of what he put on tape last year. Yeah, you did a good job of explaining why he's my number six quarterback,

and I would echo what you said. I think six through nine were like, yeah, you could shuffle him around, and I could buy into what you're saying there, where I felt pretty strong about five through one. And then like Kirk Cousins was my number 10. And we'll talk about his neighbors. We'll get there.

But Dakota Rain coming in at number six for me, which means I need to tell you who my number eight is, right? Yep. Because I've given you cousins. I've given you golf. And number eight for me is Jalen Hertz, quarterback. Philadelphia Eagles, Brett Whitefield with the eyebrows raising, making a little noise over there.

I don't know if that means he doesn't have him on his list. or if you thought maybe I was too low or whatever. But I mean, here's the, I think this is the best thing I can say about Jalen Hertz, right? Everybody thinks he had a down year last year. He like set career highs and passing yards and touchdowns and rushing touchdowns. He's a scheme was terrible. You talked about it.

There's no checkdowns. A guy had no answers at all when pressure came. And so like, yeah, Jalen Hurts stinks under pressure. Well, anybody would stink if they had nowhere to go with the football. Go back to that year before, man. I can't get out of my head. like that dude was a dude down the stretch for Philly. And I know he has a good supporting cast and all that.

But yeah, I don't think you can deny. He went, I mean, he went blow for blow with with Mahomes. I think the punter, the punter lost in the Super Bowl, man, Aaron Cypros. If there's a guy that should be, you know, exiled from Philadelphia, we need to talk more about Aaron Sipross and that crappy punt that put the, chiefs in position to get the go ahead touchdown. So I don't know. I'm in on Jalen Hertz.

He's not without his warts. I love the leadership. I think he's got the it factor. And I think with the scheme shored up around him, we'll see more of what we enjoyed in 2020 compared to last season. Again, you nailed it, Joe. He's my five, actually. Oh, wow.

Okay, that's what that meant. I was like, boy, I hope he doesn't have him outside the top 10. No, no, it's interesting because sometimes you have recent feelings about a player. And I know we've, I think I said on this show, he forgot how to play football last year. There were moments of that for sure, right? Like, especially down the stretch, that whole Eagles team, just became dysfunctional, whether it was defense, the past catching, the offensive scheme. And so I think Hertz definitely kind of had some bad moments where it was either go ball or scramble. You know,

there was a stretch of play last year. But when you look at the last three seasons of him as a starter and aggregate, he's gotten better in certain ways every single year. And he relies on yards after catch almost as little as any QB in the NFL. So like everything he's getting is either with his legs or with his arm the team's not helping him out a ton and i know he's got a j brown and a great offensive line and that seems controversial to say but because of the way the design plays he's has to carry so much of the burden um no other player moved the chains more than him with oh then other than josh allen with his legs last year so um he's giving you a little bit extra so if i'm not and that's kind of the way i measured this is like if you're not in that kirk cousins tier you know that

Jared Goff, Dack Prescott tier where you're just executing the offense at a high level. I want you to be able to give me a little extra. And Jalen Hertz has that extra to me. He can get it done with his legs. Obviously, I think the arm talent speaks for itself. He needs to probably mature a little bit more and take that next step as a leader. But I think he's right there in the mix. 38 rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons.

I know the touch push is something, but I mean, come on, man. That's unbelievable production. All right. So I have given my 10 through, well, somehow my top 10, 9, 8, 7, and 6 are all out there through all of this. So I've got Cousins at 10, golf at 9, Hertz at 8, Herbert at 7, Prescott at 6. What do you need to fill in? So I got, yeah, I got to throw out my number 8 and my number 7 to get my bottom 5 in there. All right.

Let's get there. My number eight, and he's right in that Kirk Cousins' archetype of high-level executor, not a ton of talent in his body necessarily, and that's Brock Purdy. Couldn't ask for a guy. And listen, I, going back to Take Talk and On the Clock, my two other shows, I've hammered Brock Purdy on both of those shows. John Hanson's show matchup points, guru in the morning on Sirius XM. I have hammered Brock Purdy into oblivion because I just don't think he's the most talented

guy, but you can't argue with the results, wins, production. It's there 118 passer rating from a clean pocket. The dude has been absolutely balling. And then all the accuracy numbers speak for themselves. Like he's up there and just about every metric. Not quite as high as golf, but he's, he's right there top 10 and just about everything. So he's doing what he's being asked to do at a really, really high level. And, you know, that's all we got to work with. So I like it. Number eight. Some of his second reaction stuff is really good too. You're just like, really? I can't believe you can do that. So I, the phrase that I keep going back to with Brock Purdy, who is number 11 for me. So he was the closest neighbor that I had to Kirk Cousins.

What I keep going back to with Brock Purdy is I always say he's hard for me because I know what I watch at Iowa State. There was a reason he was the last pick in the draft and barely drafted at all, but then you also can't deny the results and what he's been able to do. And you can talk about scheme. You can talk about players around him. But the situation is, a situation, right? Like, you don't have to think about Proc Party playing for another team because he doesn't. He plays for the 49ers and he has those players in that scheme and that play caller. So I don't know what more you can ask for out of a player. I recognize that, you know, he wouldn't potentially be a very good player for some other teams, but that doesn't matter.

He is for the 49ers and he's knocking on the door for me for the top 10. Perfect. All right. We're going to keep going with this list. I'm about to drop my number seven, but first we have to take a quick break. All right, number seven for me, because your seven was, my seven is Herbert. Yeah. So my, so funny, my seven is the man Herbert gets comp to a lot. And that's Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams. And here's what stuck out to me.

Obviously, he went to L.A. won the Super Bowl. But then this past year, I think a lot of people are arguing he didn't play his best football, but I actually saw an evolution in Matthew Stafford that blew me away. because this is a super aggressive arm talent supremo who decided you know what i'm going to evolve we're going to rely on this run game i'm not going to play yolo ball as much as i have in my career 25th and deep throw percentage joe if i told you that that make your that doesn't make sense right with a guy with matt stafford's arm 25th and deep throw rate in the NFL that's crazy right 20th and first read

percentage so one of the criticisms of stafford his entire career is that he locks on to his guy it's Calvin Johnson and Calvin Johnson only. It's Cooper Cup at Cooper Cup only. Well, last year he ranked 20th in first read percentage. So there's 19 other cornerbacks that locked onto their first read more than Matthew Stafford. I think that was a big evolution in his game. It was by far the lowest number of his career. And then for he's despite doing that and becoming a little bit more conservative, a little more take what the defense gives you mindset. He's still ranked fourth and hero throw rate, which is those big time throws you see downfield that are beating coverage itself. So he's still giving you that little extra, despite kind of becoming a little bit more

conservative and playing with the scheme a little bit better. Isn't it crazy that last year was the first time that Matthew Stafford was in the top 10 for MVP votes? Like the dude had 41 touchdowns and 4,800 yards in 2021. They won the Super Bowl. You didn't get to that. What are we doing here? I have Matthew Stafford at five. So I mean, he's a dude, man. I think he's so forgotten in this landscape of quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, like historically productive in every imaginable way. And whatever, the Detroit situation was a Detroit situation. But like, he's good. He's really good. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the game still. And I feel like, I'm glad that we both have him represented really high because he deserves it. For sure. And I think one of the things that's

sort of irritating as someone who likes to analyze QB play is when he was with the lines, the, the knock on him was, well, he hasn't won anything. You know, losing team almost every year. I think he made the playoffs two or three times in the Lions uniform. So then when he got the monkey off his back and went to L.A. and won the Super Bowl, it seems like that would have bought him all the respect he deserved, right? And I still think people struggle with that. So I'm glad you have been in the top five, but yeah, awesome player.

It's been a pleasure watching him, too. I've pretty much watched every game the dude's played. So, yeah. Okay, so we're both, well, we both have each other's five, right? You have Hertz at five. I have Stafford at five. Right. Are you, all your 10 through five has been disclosed.

Yeah, I'll recap real quick. 10 Justin Herbert, nine, Dak Prescott, eight Brock Purdy, seven Matthew Stafford, six Jared Goff, five Jalen Hertz. All right.

So I'll give you my number four. Go for it. My number four is Lamar Jackson for the Baltimore Ravens. Same. Okay, so we're going to be aligned. This will be the player we have. Well,

I'm sure we're going to have number one the same as well. I'm guessing we're closing this out exactly the same. to be honest. Well, based on what you just said, I can guarantee it because you know who I have to. Yes. But Lamar Jackson, I mean, just, he dude's a baller, right? He's two-time NFL MVP, rushing productions off the charts. The volume, the passing volume stats, that's just not the type of offense that he runs. Like, you look at some of these other quarterbacks, they throw the ball 600 times a year. That's just not, that's not Lamar, right? He's 300 passing attempts guy. But he's a playmaker, right? And he's able to lead high.

highly productive offenses and he means a lot. And I don't think that they've ever really had the receiving talent around him. And I think there's been a lot of questions about scheme. And I think he becomes a difficult player for people to completely appreciate. But I mean, all he does is win, was he fit, the Ravens are 58 and 19 with him as a quarterback. And you wish maybe there was some deeper postseason runs. And if there's a criticism, I think is warranted for Lamar.

It's like when your teams needed you the most, like sometimes late in the season. season he's been injured or not being able to like, I mean, even the NFC championship game last year. So like, or the AFC championship game. So that was a very competitive game. So I think that's the kind of the missing piece from his overall resume. But I mean, the guy's a baller, right? And, there's been a lot of different things around him in Baltimore, but he still leads a highly productive offense that wins football games. Do you want to talk nature versus nurture, right? This guy has got it done with as little nurture as possible. I mean, the past weapons have not been there for him yet he still gets it done obviously his legs are a big part of that here's one thing that really

stands out to me he probably would have been in my top four this time last year um so it's funny he's still fourth because i did see a massive evolution for lamar last year where and we expected it to some degree with todd manken calling the plays and instead of uh greg roman but he became better as a passer more accurate more disciplined um he ranked sixth in a justic completion percentage 77.4 percent the highest market his career by a lot ranked third in hero throw rate 5.9%. So he's making those elite level throws at the third highest level. And then this is the stat that just blows my mind for for Lamar because he's never even sniff this. First in the entire NFL and completion percentage over expectation. Wow. So that's an adjusted stat that takes into account,

target depth, down and distance, things of that nature. So it's adjusted for the situation. He ranked first in the league. Completion percentage over expectation. So he is awesome. The legs, he also gives you that little something extra, right? So he's gotten to a place where he can run the offense as needed. But man, when you need that extra play, he can go get it. So I love Lamar.

I think he's awesome. He's definitely earned my respect. Two-time MVP. In what, like six seasons? Yeah. It's pretty doggone good. Okay. Your number three?

Joe Burrow. Is that you as well? Yeah, of course. Yeah, Joe Burrow. Yeah, favorite, favorite stat on Burrow from last year, 54.2% accurate throw rate, that highest bucket of accuracy. So he's maximizing the result of every play. It's funny, too.

He gets a lot of, like, Chase and Higgins are a great duo to play with, obviously. It seems like they'd make your life easier. But what's funny is they both excel most at contested catches. Both good, you know, they've developed into very good route runners as well. And there's a separation element there. But Burroughs had to just trust his guys a lot, which means you have to be an accurate. a thrower. Like you can't be missing throws when you're throwing into tight windows, right? So Burrow getting it done despite playing with two guys that, you know, excel most with

contested catch situations or tight window receiving. I, I just think that's, that's huge for him. Like, he's, he's been awesome. So. Yeah, Burroughs a dude, man. I just wanted to have a normal season at some point, right? Like, it's, it's insane every year. The ACL in year one. And he had like preseason injuries, the last couple of seasons that have, like, delayed him being able to practice. and he's kind of rusty to start the year. And then last year with the wrist, it's like, can this guy just have a normal year? And that's concerning.

But like when this dude's on the field, man, high level, high level mental processing accuracy. Like if your most important traits for the quarterback position are decision making an accuracy, it's Joe Perot all day long, man. And yeah, I think that his accuracy and ball placement complements those receivers quite well. If you want, you know, contested catches, ball skill,

trust guys to win leverage battles and go get the football. I mean, Joe Burroughs a great guy to throw in the football. And I think that Tyler Boyd's been a nice little compliment to all of that. I mean, he's done this. There's no running game. There's never been a running game with Cincinnati with any level of consistency. They stink at running the ball. And so like, and I don't think the scheme, the scheme doesn't help him at all either.

Right. Like it's West Coast passing, dude, like drop back, read it and rip it. Right. There's not play action. There's not a lot of RPO or like binary stuff to make it simple for him. You know, like, so I, I, I, I think Burroughs awesome. It's just a matter of, okay, can we just have some normal seasons?

Can you just be healthy and go play? And then I think I'm always concerned about Cincinnati as a franchise. You know what I mean? Like they're just goofy with their business decisions. I mean, let's call it what it is. I got a cheap owner that's that operate that they have to do business differently. And like I thought it would change once they got Joe Burrow. But it hasn't, right?

They're still doing the same garbage you've always done. So I'm, I'm worried a little bit of how that's going to hold him back. But man, Joe Burrow as a player. is unbelievable and like the skill set is it still works man i know he doesn't run around all the time and like do this off script stuff but what he does with his mind and his ball placement is candidly probably better than anyone in the league yeah it's unreal your uh your point about jack taylor and the play calling is that resonates huge he's got to be when you look at all the mcvay shanahan guys he's an albatross like he does not do what they do doesn't really there's not

a lot of deception and what he does. The scheme is a little different. And then the decision making in game is also bad. So yeah, that resonates big. Number two? Yeah, I mean, this is, this is probably pretty easy. I think, like I said, we're going to close us out the same. Yeah, Josh Allen.

Yeah. The Bills man is Josh Allen number two. Credit not putting them one, but. I can't put it one. The guys, Pat's won three to last five Superboy. He goes to the AFC championship game every year. Yeah. I think that's more because.

his defense shows up for him in the playoffs, but who I'm going to give you a good runway here to rant about your boy, Josh Allen, but I wanted to point out a couple of my favorites data suite stats about Josh Allen. The dude, so there's a lot of mobile quarterbacks in the league. We've hit a couple of them, Hertz, Lamar Jackson, even Mahomes to an extent, there's many more. But the thing that stands out for Josh Allen above the rest of them, he's avoided, he avoided 30 sacks in 2023. And he was only personally, responsible for three sacks. That's via our charting. So we had him responsible for only three sacks of his own and he avoided 30 other sacks. No, like you look at like Lamar and Hertz avoided around

that same amount of sacks, but they also took 12 to 15 sacks that we credited to them. So this dude is he's found the balance between chaos and order. He's it's like perfect for Josh Allen. And that's why he is so good at making plays out of structure for a guy who gets knocked with his accuracy, 2.6% completion percentage over expectation last year that ranked inside the top five. I cited that stat as being my favorite for Lamar. Well, it's also true for Allen. Some of that is the nature of the way those guys play, right? They let the play breakdown.

They're throwing two open receivers often in Tramble mode, but it's still impressive for a guy who gets knocked for throw for accuracy there. Yeah, I think it's fair, though. I don't think that Josh Allen is top to your ballpoint. I think he's got general accuracy, right? Like, that's what he has general accuracy. And I'm interested to see, like, he's talked about his top priority this offseason being that he's getting back to mechanics, right?

Like he said, what are you working on this off season? He said, big time mechanics, getting back to digitally mapping them and seeing where there's any deficiencies. And that's what really was a big part of his breakout in 2020. He spent the time digitally mapping mechanics and finding out where he was long with the strider, along with his arm. And he wants to be more efficient with it. And you go back over the last couple of seasons, he's had,

throwing arm injuries the last two years. He had a shoulder this past season and the year before was an elbow. And I think through that, you, you, you alter your mechanics to compensate for the deficiency left behind by the injury and things can get a little bit wonky. And I'm glad to hear that he's back to kind of figuring out where he can shore that up so he can be better with ball placement. Because I think it's some of the quick game is where it gets really frustrating where, you know, he's got a great opportunity for a screen or like a quick pass that he can lead a guy into space and the balls behind him, they have to adjust and it takes away from yards after catch and, you know, the efficiency overall in the quick game. And I think that's going to be more of what he's going

to be asked to do with Joe Brady. So I'm excited to see how that evolves. But with Josh Allen, I think things that maybe get overlooked with him is how clutch he is. I mean, like fourth quarter passerating, like come from behind wins, uh, playoffs. He's always shows up in the playoffs, like literally all the time. It's, he's, he's high level. The dude scores like more touchdowns than anybody. Like does touchdowns matter a lot in football, man? You know, I know it doesn't doesn't take a PhD in football to realize that, but the dude scores touchdowns at rates that are like transcend anybody in the league. And I think the conversation goes back to turnovers, but like the best quarterbacks turn the ball over, right? Like you have to be able to,

and willing to just fire it in there sometimes and wake me up the next time of Josh Allen turnover, like impacts a Bill's playoff game, right? Like it doesn't happen. So Josh is a dude. I wish his defense was better in the playoffs for him. excited to see him this year and man am i happy he's my franchise quarterback yes sir um yeah he i probably never taken an l as big as i have on josh down because i did not like him as a prospect you know that we've had me neither dude yeah i mean like we have to hide from it we there's a lot to learn from from that evaluation man i we could do an entire podcast on that but like i learned from him and patrick mahomes i learned a ton about um scouting players and like coming out of this era of

football where you saw Tom Brady and Drew Breeze is like the premier quarterbacks and they played the game a certain way and you know you got to be able to win from the pocket right you get all this like and the game has evolved and I think these players are a big reason why um and so yeah like if you hadn't missed then you haven't scouted and I think there were great lessons to learn from some of those evaluations for sure all right we're going to get into our top guy it's obviously you know we know who it is but Before we get into Patrick Mahomes, we're going to take a quick break. Ella McKay, coming to theaters December 12th.

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You should do that everything. afternoon. Ella McKay. All right, Joe, Patrick Mahomes, obviously the number one guy. I didn't prepare anything to say about him because I think the resume speaks for itself. I know we're not QB wins guys, right? But three Super Bowl's last four years, he goes to the AFC championship game every single year.

It's insanely impressive. Sorry, that was three Super Bowl's last five years, not four years. But everything the guy does, I guess one thing I'll throw at you that my guy, John Costco from PFF, shared with me a couple months ago, is that you're familiar with EPA, the stat right expected points added so it's obviously in the analytics world it's a very prestigious stat passing from zero to nine yards is doesn't typically yield a positive EPA it's basically like a run play there's only in NFL history there's only eight seasons where a quarterback has had a positive EPA on throws in rhythm from zero to nine yards and Patrick Mahomes has four of them

that's pretty crazy so we're in this world where mohomes is forced to kind of take what the defense gives him that's what he's amazing at he will gut you whatever way you allow him to gut you he'll gut you um and that stat alone is pretty evident that he makes the most with what the defense gives him no matter what um and that's why in clutch moments in the playoffs it almost seems like you can't stop him even though the weapons haven't always been great you know sands tyreek hill Travis kelsey but this is what i'd want i want to say about patrick rohomes because like it's not hard to talk about why he's so good. But if I were a chiefs fan and I wanted to become more excited about Patrick Mahomes and I was a fan of the 31 other teams and I wanted to be

nervous about Patrick Mahomes moving forward in a very respectful way, it's the vertical passing. And I'm sure you have some numbers you can pull up from the data suite about Patrick Mahomes last year in vertical passing. The numbers were terrible. Like literally bottom of the NFL in terms of completion percentage and pass a rating on throws 20 yards or more down the field. But what do they do this offseason? They got Xavier worthy. They got Hollywood Brown. Like the down the field speed elements of this offense, they're coming back. And post-Tiree Kill, you know, of course, they trade away Tyree Kill win two Super Bowls, right? So let's not act like a cost them. But it did cost them with vertical passing.

I'm not I'm not sitting here telling you that worthy or brown are Tyree Kill, but what they are is speed down the field that you have to respect. So you want to play two-eye safeties against Mahomes. Well, you better you better be able to stay leveraged over top of those guys who candidly can win foot races against pretty much any corner in the league. And so watch out. Watch out for Patrick Mahomes that this vertical passing game comes back because that's been missing and they've taken steps here to get that better.

Furthermore, I just gave you that stat about passing zero to nine yards. That gets a lot easier when there's a vertical. Yeah, they didn't have a single guy on that roster last year that could really beat man coverage at a high level. Travis Kelsey being their number one guy, but he's a tight end. They didn't have a receiver that could go beat corners in man coverage routinely. Rashi Rice is more of a zone beater, yak player. And then after that, they pretty much had nothing. So to your point, I'm excited to see Hollywood Brown is a man-beater, Xavier Worthy, absolutely a man-beater.

This should be one of the best iterations of the Kansas City offense we've seen thus far. And it's kind of scary to think about because they've been winning despite everything we just said. All right, Brett Whitefield. It's time to discuss the NFC North. I've heard that you knew a thing or two about this division who was won by the Detroit Lions last year. Yes. Division champions. That's the first time.

when's last time it wasn't like 91 or something like that? Yeah, it was 1990. Yeah. Long time. The playoff game was 91, yeah. So here they are back on top of the NFC North. Expectations, right? Like I think I had expectations for Detroit going into last season.

And I think, I mean, they put them in the showcase game against Chiefs Thursday at football, right? There was this expectation. But I felt like Detroit fans were still like, yeah, I don't know, man. Like, wake me up, wake me up when it actually happens. Well, you went to the NFC championship game, had a good chance to win it. One of the best teams in football. And so as you think about this team going into 2024, like, what's the big thing for you to build upon the success and now this expectation that Detroit's one of the elite teams in the league?

It's, oh, man, that's a loaded question. So something Dan Campbell said at the end of the last season was it's really hard to get back to where we were. No question. When you're a good team, like the way the season played out, getting to the NFC championship game, having a, what? a 17 point lead. That's really hard to do again. Like there's only a few elite teams that do that every year. There's a reason you don't see a lot of repeat champs in the NFL besides Kansas City. It's because it is hard. It's hard to repeat it. But the lines did have a slam dunk of an offseason, Joe. I mean, they aggressively attack their deficiencies. They added depth in the right areas,

possibly made a strength and even better strength in the offensive line. Because I do think Kevin Zitler is a better player than 100%. What a great choice. Let you on. the Jackson walk for that contract and signed Kevin Zitler? Yeah, we'll do that. Exactly. So, I mean, expectations are just going up. They just, I mean, honestly, they have to tighten up those, those small deficiencies they had with the second. I guess the secondary wasn't a small deficiency, but it was, it was a big one. But yeah, we can start. We just go through their, their additions. They added DJ Reader, Carlton Davis, Kevin Zitler, Amique Robertson, Marcus Davenport. They went and they drafted Terry and Arnold and Ennis Rake Straw. So for those of you counting at home,

that's four new cornerbacks. Cornerback was the worst part of their team last year. They just went and replaced the entire unit. And that could bring up different problems, right? Communication could be an issue, getting the right combo out there. Brian Branch is a stud last year. He's the only remaining starter at cornerback in the nickel there. So there's a chance he even plays some safety.

But man, they aggressively attacked what they thought was their weakness. And I'm sure everyone thought was their weakness. So kind of excited about that. You mentioned a lot when we talk lions that nobody runs a ball. Nobody runs a ball in the Lions. Yeah. Well, nobody ran the ball in the Lions last year with Aline McNeil and a bunch of nobody's. Let's be honest.

DJ Reeder is now his running mate. Are you kidding? Like, you got two monsters in there that are like stout against the run, but those guys can also penetrate and get into the backfield. And I get really excited about those two guys, plus Aidan Hutchinson, who's become one of the premier defensive ends in the NFL very, very quickly. And, you know, like, what do we get from James Houston coming back and what he showed as a rookie? What's he going to be like?

Marcus Davenport's an interesting signing. Kind of felt a little off brand for them. I'm curious to see how he plays out. I know it wasn't a huge investment. And I think that they could use his contributions. So I'm interested there. Oh, I'm curious on that. Yeah.

I mean, so he's going to get run, right? I think he's probably going to get a lot of the snaps opposite of Aidan Hutchinson. So he's healthy. He's starting for sure. Right. And so good, good looking defense. I mean, Terry and Arnold Carlton Davis is, those are upgrades, right? Like they got better on the interior. They got better at corner. Ify Melifonlew, you know, really showcase himself and the last season, stepping into that role opposite of Kirby Joseph. There's just like a lot of upside here. Even Jack Campbell, year two for this defense. So if you're concerned about the Detroit Lions defense, I think it got a lot better in this offseason. On the offensive side of the football, I'm really, curious to see if this is if this is going to be the year jameson williams becomes a thing because like i feel like there's like there's a promise there but it feels a little bit empty to me and i candidly i think i'm in ross st brown might be the most important skill player in the NFL right now like non-quarterback

offensive skill player like i get nervous for this passing game if st brown's not available because i mean what jameson williams i love them like do use my wide receiver one like a top 10 prospect for me he's like 400 receiving yards so far on the NFL, right? Like, let's call it what it is. And some of that's been like just nobody's near him down the field and he catches a punt and scores a touchdown, right? Like we've seen that happen a couple of times. So I want to see, I want to see this offense add some layers in the passing game that are not Samuel Porta and are not Amman Ross St. Brown. I think their offseason moves point to what you just said.

They have a lot of trust in James and Williams. And it has been an empty promise so far. but I think it's it's trending up for sure. You look at the way they use him down the stretch. He got much more involved in the short part of the field. Those timing and rhythm patterns you were golf and him just weren't on the same page. They got on the same page. And he had a couple five, six target games, which is funny because it's not a ton.

But when you have Sam Laporte on Amon-Rest St. Brown, five-six targets is about all you're going to get as the third guy, right? Looked good. Obviously, the 49ers game, he bawled out. So I think that that's the note you're ending on that. What, at the round he took 70 yards for a third. touch on. I mean, that was one of the most special plays of the season, if we're being honest. So you see the talent there. I think Caleb Raymond, too, is a little bit unheralded and should probably get his flowers for what he does for this offense. He has played that flanker role. He's kind of

been Jameson's backup when he's been suspended or coming back from injury or whatever it is. And the dudes has almost 2,000 yards from scrimmage in the last three seasons, Joe. If I, like, the average person has no idea that Caleb Raymond's been that a big part of their offense. Like he has been a dude for them. Not somebody you obviously want to rely on for 120 targets or anything like that, but I do think he adds a speed element. He's great on those deep crossing routes that Ben Johnson likes to get schemed up. He's been a fantastic player for them. So I think the combo of Jameson taking that step forward with with Caleb Raymond being there just in case helps me sleep at night for sure. They've also said a lot of things about Antoine

Green and Donovan People's Jones really taking the step forward. I like DPJ. He had like 800 yards two years ago in Cleveland. Then they trade him for a hand sandwich and then they re-signed him for a ham sandwich. Like what's going on here? He's a fantastic special teams player. So I think that's, that was what drew them to him in the first place was like, I think so right at the trade done in last year, there was a couple injuries to the lines special teams players. So I think they went and got DPJ for that. He's also an awesome run blocker as a receiver, which the lines live by the mantra, no block, no rock. I think you're going to see with Josh Reynolds taking off that a lot of those, you know, traditional X sets go to DPJ where he's running, you know, those, he's the

dig route on the, on a dagger concept or something like that. Because Jared Goffs loves attacking the middle of the field and you need a more bigger body guy to do that. So I think, you know, I think there's a chance he has a decent season as well. But ultimately, if we're looking at weaknesses in offense, Joe, would you agree that it's depth at wide receiver? I was going to ask you, uh, if we should be concerned about offensive line depth. So I find myself more concern. I mean, offensive line depth and receiver depth, I think are both areas of concern with this offense. Tell me on what, tell me why I shouldn't be concerned if one starter goes down to this line. What do we have? One starter. One starter is probably fine. Who is it? Well, depends on the starter.

Who are the who are the, who are the two or nine six and seven for Detroit? Who is it? I would say probably Dan Skipper and Colby Soros doll for now. I'm nervous. I'm nervous with chance. Christian, uh, Christian Mahogany NFL ready player. We'll see. He's rookie late round pick yeah i mean concerned of this knee i think is what dropped him out of day two though um he's he's i like this tape yeah but i mean like this i have a firm day too great on him so big big time win for me i do think depth could it's potentially an issue if they have multiple injuries but they had multiple injuries last year and they sustained it coyote i was seek owasica had a lot of playing time had a few starts in there got them through and then they have oh you know

corby solzer i mentioned he is the so the line we talked about this with the bills where they have this draft and develop approach. So a lot of people are writing him off. He was a fifth round pick last year who played decently as a rookie when his number was called on. I think he fills in at right tackle or right guard if something were to happen to Sewell or Zightler there. So swords doll is the guy.

Sourzdaal is the swing guy. He's versatile. If Decker gets hurt, then you're putting soresdall at right tackle, moving Penae to left tackle. If one of the guards get hurts, I think Sourzdaul is the first guy in there too. The only real issue is Frank Ragnow and center. Last year, Glasgow moved to center when Ragnow didn't play. That will probably still happen this year. And then you'll move, you know, Sorsdahl to left guard or whatever.

So I think they're probably fine. Soresdall is the is the sixth offensive lineman for sure. Then Skipper has started, you know, what, 18 games of the lines over the last three years or something like that. So he has played a lot for them. So you're less concerned about that than I find myself. I'm concerned. I'm just not like, I'm more concerned about receiver depth. Like you said earlier, if I'm on Rago's down,

Yikes. Like, yeah. That's a huge problem. Now, those games where he has missed or been hurt, they run the ball like 70 times. And it's worked out because there's such a multiple offensive unit that can hit you from a variety of schemes and personnel grouping. So, but I mean, I'm still concerned if I'm on where I went down. The biggest threat to the Detroit Lions in the north is probably the Green Bay Packers, who were they three and six, got to the playoffs, won a playoff game, right? And there's a lot of hype for a year two with Jordan Love and all the young pass catchers that they have and some additions to the offensive line.

A new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hathley taking over this unit with some reinforcements as well. So Green Bay knocking on the door, I guess. If they were to make some noise, like what's the big factors in play for you with Green Bay entering 2024? Obviously, Jordan Love has to stay where he was at the end of the season last year. that's first and foremost, but secondly, they absolutely have to get better in the middle of their defense and coverage. They were atrocious. I think Baker Mayfield completed like 19 straight passes on them at one point last year in a game and beat them. Kishon Nixon, their starting slot corner, allowed 78% of the balls into his coverage to be caught.

Quay Walker, their Mike linebacker who was targeted a ton because he was not good in coverage. 84.5% of the balls in his coverage were caught. Those are not good numbers, Joe. I know you know that because the league average is like 62%. So this is where they really struggled. It got them in trouble in pretty much every meaningful game last year. Look in the playoff game. That's where San Francisco really just took advantage.

I mentioned the Tampa game. They got to get better there. The problem is they don't have any new blood there. Oh, I disagree. I think their entire offseason has been attacking exactly what you're talking about. They gave all the money to Xavier McKinney, middle of the field safety. And then they drafted. Oh, that's deep safety.

He's not a primary coverage defender. You don't think he's, what do you think he's going to do for this team? He's going to play deep third. You think he's going to be a deep post safety, really? That's what he does. Oh, I think he'll, I think he's going to play low, a little bit, play on tight ends in the middle of the field and that type of stuff. Plus they drafted Javon Bullard and Edger and Cooper.

Like that's, to me, they want his rangy guys in the middle of the field. Right. So you took a, you're taking a. defense that was soft in the middle intermediate part of the field last year. And now you're going to add two rookies to the mix and say that's getting better. I'm just saying that they took intentional strides to try to get better, transitioning away from Darnel Savage and like. And I think long term, that probably works.

I'm just, I'm concerned this year. They still have Keishon Nixon as a starting nickel. They still have Quay Walker as you're starting Mike. Edgerin Cooper is also more of a projection at this point. Of course. He has the physical tools to be awesome in coverage, no doubt. That's why I love them coming out. But to say it was perfect on tape, it would not.

be true. No, but you can see the, you can see the vision, whether it happens in 2024 or not, I think it remains to be seen. I like this, go ahead. No, I was said, did you see Bullard as a, as a box safety or deep safety? I had them more as a box. Yeah, I like it more as a slot, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So I like this front. I like Kenny Clark, Y, it's kind of coming along, Rashon Gary, Luke of Van Ness for a year two. Curious to see how all of this comes together. Carl Brooks showed a little bit of juice as a as a rookie. So like they have, I think this team collectively has a lot of athleticism on defense. Even, I mean, Eric Stokes, I think to me, Eric Stokes is a big part of, of this equation.

Look decent as a rookie, but the last two seasons has been a nothing burger for Eric Stokes. And they're really counting on him because of course they have Jire Alexander, but I mean, it's Eric Stokes and then nothing, right? So like, I think the X factor for this defense is Stokes being healthy and playing like a first round pick. In addition to some of these younger players coming together in the you know edge cooper jvon bullard who are going to be cast in the big roles right away and of course with jeffley uh leaving the head coaching job with boston college to come be the defensive coordinator for the packers uh i think that transition is going to be really really important yeah their front's nasty dude their front is disgusting um roshan

gary when he's healthy is probably the most underrated edge defender in the league right now devante wyatt one of my draft crushes the year he came out preston smith still getting it done And then I'm really curious on Lucas Van Ness. You said you're excited about him year two. I did not like him as a prospect coming out. It was really low on him. I think I had a mid-second round grade on him. He goes top 12 or whatever he did.

Did not play good as a rookie either. So I'm curious to see if they can get him right. What do you see him from him? Well, I just see it for Van Ness. I'm not validating anything that he's done. But like when you consider this collective group of talent, whether you're high on him or not, I think that he could develop

and become more of a needle mover with, you know, the pedigree and investment that they have in him. So I think he just kind of adds to that overall mix. Yeah, and they're not relying on him for 800. No, no, they don't have to. Yeah, I mean, like, legitimately, Gary and Smith are going to out snap him. And then you would think, I mean, Annigbari is going to be tough to, like, not give him run as well. So, like, 30, 35 percent type player in terms of snaps, I think is where he'll fall in. But he's part of this collective mix that you'd say, okay, yeah, this is where we can get some

juice. Sounds like what he did at Iowa. A very young player didn't even start a game at Iowa, right? So like it's there's a long play with Lucas Van Ness who was always destined to become a packer. On off it, go ahead. No, you go ahead. Sorry. I was just going to transition to the offensive side of the football where the collection of young talent at receiver and tight end is really interesting, of course, with Jordan Love. And to me, I really interested to see if like who becomes the true like, what's the pecking order here? You know, I know that it was like read and Dobbs kind I became that. But like, I'm not sleeping on Dentavian wicks. If Christian Watson can stay healthy, you feel like more volumes going to him. You know they want to get tight ends going because they did

with Musgrave. And then when Musgrave went down, they still got craft going. And then when Musgrave came back, they gave the ball to Musgrave, all that to say that they made a big investment in Josh Jacobs to come over and be their starting running back. And I think that's an interesting choice with a lot that I think has to come together with this offensive line. I think you love Elkton Jenkins and Zach Tom. But I think we got a lot of other things. sort out here, whether that's where we're going to play Jordan Morgan and how good he's going to be as a rookie. And then Rashid Walker is like he legitimately going to be your answer at left tackle in addition to what's the ceiling with Josh Myers. So still a lot to put together on offense here.

Going back to receivers, they need a guy to step up to be the dude. I know, you know, everyone likes to fantasize about having three equal guys. It's just not really how the NFL works. You need a dude. When Christian Watson was on the field last year, he still led the team in Target chair. That's, was undeniable. It wasn't dubs. It wasn't Reed. When Watson was on the field, he was the guy. So can he take a step forward? Can he stay healthy? Those are big things. The dynamic he brings to the offense is obviously different than what all the other guys do because the speed,

the breakaway speed, the acceleration. I think he runs pretty crispy routes actually for his size as well. So tight end, they're super athletic. Again, they probably need one of those guys to emerge a little bit. I did not like the Josh Jacobs signing. I thought it was one of the worst signs of the off season. It's pretty antithetical. to what they do, especially because they brought A.J. Dillon back. I think swapping.

They drafted Marshon Lloyd's sort of high too, right? And Lloyd actually makes more sense for what they do, replacing Aaron Jones. Lloyd and Jones are very similar players where the strength of Green Bay's run game is on the edges. It is attacking the edge with either, you know, pulling guards from counter or power or outside zone. Aaron Jones has been the best running back in the league at attacking outside rushing lanes for the last five years. I mean, it's not even close. He still was last year, even though he missed a lot of time. Josh Jacobs just did not look like the same dude last year as he did the year before.

He was a plotter. He had no explosiveness to his game. Couldn't make anyone miss. Couldn't break tackles with force or physicality. Really struggled. He's never been a highly efficient player in the past game either. And that's something Aaron Jones really added to that team. I think there's a legit chance here that Marshawn Lloyd,

ends up being the guy before the end of the year. Even with the money they're paying Jacobs, I mean, this is a massive hot take. It is, but when you actually look at Jacobs deal, it's a one-year deal. On paper, it was like four years, $32 million. They can get out after one year. It's a one-year, $8 million deal.

I don't see why they would keep him around unless he just morphs into Alabama, Josh Jacobs, the guy who was... What about two years ago, Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing? Yeah, he was good. He still wasn't really breaking tackles at the level you want to see. The elusiveness wasn't there.

A lot of it was volume driven. His stat, I don't know. It was a good season, but a lot of it was volume driven. So where Green Bay is kind of thrived on this hyper efficiency from Aaron Jones, who's I think his career yards per carry is what, five, six or something? It's ridiculous. So look at Brett Whitefield. Just tossing a wet blanket over Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs.

Two biggest things the Packers did this off season. Brett's like, yeah, don't care about it. Actually, in my notes here, I was going to, if I was leading the Green Bay discussion, I would have said I didn't like their offseason that much. But I like Xavier McKinney, the player, Joe. Don't get me wrong. I just don't think for what their biggest hole was, unless they have a different vision for how they're going to use him.

When he played Alabama, he was more of that interchangeable, you know, chess piece, right? So maybe they get him back to doing more of that stuff. I just know in the Wink Martindale system in New York, he's been playing more of a little more single high than box, not playing in the slot as much as you. we'd like to see. If that's division for him, great. I think he's a phenomenal safety, though. Awesome safety. Just don't think he's quite the band-aid on their biggest weakness, though. And then when you look at their other losses, John Runyon, I think was a big loss for them. And then an underrated one, John Owens. That guy played 800 stamps for them last year.

And he goes and signs in Chicago, a division rival. He was probably better than Darnell Savage, actually, if we're being honest with each other. at a previous my previous line of work several years ago i had a i had a co-worker i named ashley great co-worker and anytime that i said something mean about somebody she would always say okay now joe you have to say three nice things about that person so now brett whitefield you have to say three nice things about the green bay packers and then we'll move on to the bears um their offensive lines awesome elite pass protecting unit i think they're the only on paper they're the only team in the league that had a better pass protection metrics than the Detroit Lions last year.

Phenomenal. Their front that I've already mentioned is nasty. I love their front. And I think they had a really, really good draft. Jordan Morgan steps in, probably going to start at one of their guard spots you would presume. Elton Jenkins gives them a lot of flexibility because he can literally play anywhere. Marshaun Lloyd, I already mentioned how much I love him. I do like Jonathan Pollard as well.

So I think they knocked, I think they knocked the draft out as a lion's. fan, it is tough seeing Green Bay routinely have good drafts because that's what they've done. They've drafted very, very well. Yeah, they rarely sign anybody, but I guess I did this offseason. McKinney and Jacobs felt like moves you don't typically see for the Packers. But here we are. Here we are in Chicago. It's the Caleb Williams show. I'm not sure if you check that out, but he was the number one pick in the draft. And everyone's raving about this offensive line, this defense,

this supporting cast. I mean, Caleb Williams steps into a situation with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen. We're home with Dunzee, a dung developing offensive line with the team that you think should take some steps on defense, although I have questions about this defense line. What do you think in here, man? Are the Bears ready to make some noise? You want to talk about a wet blanket? I'm about to throw on over the Chicago Bears. Oh, okay.

They have had the most caps placed in the NFL the last two off seasons. Yep. And they decided to spend that money on Nate Davis, a guard, a running back in DeAnders Swift. with two off ball linebackers, neither of whom are good in the past game and Tremaine Edmins and T.J. Edwards, a tight end in Gerald Everett. What are we doing here? Have they never once looked at an analytical model about positional value at all, not once? Montes Sweat looks like a good move.

Yes, it does. They're also, they gave up a draft capital for the right to pay that guy, a Brinks truck. I mean, I like Montes Sweat. He's a good player, but like, come on. They re-signed Jalen Johnson too. So that's, that was basically what all their catface went to. Keenan Allen, traded him. They have to pay him a little bit of money this year. Those are fair criticisms. Okay.

But I mean, this roster, I mean, I want to go straight to this defensive tackle situation. They are counting a lot on Zach Pickens and Gervyn Dexter to like take big steps in year two. Like candidly, I wasn't high on them as prospects. I know that they're very toolsy, thought they were college underachievers. And I don't think they look particularly good as rookies. they need those guys because like their best defensive tackle is Andrew Billings. They're going to rotate up front.

And right now you have a ton of snaps that are going to go to those two guys. They have to become good players. And then for as good as Montez Sweat is as a cornerstone player for them now, we need a running mate here. Like DeMarcus Walker is a perfectly fine defensive end three, but we have nothing else at defensive end. So like I don't know, man. Like I'm a defensive line guy.

Like that's where I always go there. Yep. I like your secondary. and stuff like that. Like there's enough to like there. You can debate Edmonds and Edwards, whatever. That's a good pair of linebackers. To me, it's this front, this defensive front,

that the defensive line that gets in the way of me really buying in on, on Chicago. Yeah, it's, it's tough. And that's kind of my, my whole thing with the, the rant about how they spent their money is it's like,

this roster could just be further along if they just spent their money a little bit better is all I'm saying. I don't disagree with that. Yeah, that's basically, Andrew Billings is, what, a 400 snap a year guy.

So you're going to rely on the Zach Pickens. and Gervon Dexter to play a ton of snaps. So they had moments last year, Joe, but I was with you. I didn't think they were good prospects. College underachievers is the absolute best way to describe them. I don't know, man. It was funny. I had Pickens rated higher than Dexter and they took him in reverse order.

But yeah, this defensive line's tough. I don't see a lot of pass rush at all. No. Sweets a great pass rusher, obviously. But other than him, like, we've seen this time and time again in the NFL. If you only have one dude, you're not, you're not really good. Yeah. It doesn't matter.

I like Jaquan Briskers, a nice developing young player. Of course, Kyler Gordon in the slot, I think, has taken some strides. Jalen Johnson, of course, with the year he had and the contract he got. And Tyrick Stevenson is a rookie last year. He was tested a ton. I think he was like the most targeted corner in the league. But I think he showed, I mean, maybe that was just a little bit of what else they have in the secondary. But like, maybe he could be a thing for them at corner.

But again, this defensive line's got to come together for this defense to be what they wanted to be. offensively um yeah Nate Davis stunk out loud last year at right guard but I sort of like the rest of it I mean darn out right in Braxton Jones a good young pair of tackles Kevin Jenkins went healthy at guard I like and then of course they were very intentional about kind of transitioning away from Cody white hair at center traded for Ryan Bates signed Coleman Shelton that feels like a better situation but Nate Davis has got to get it going here at right guard for the investment they made to I just stumbled on this while while you're sitting here talking and these these these might be just Achilles heel level stats.

The Chicago Bears ranked dead last in the NFL and QB pressure rate allowed on the offensive line. And they ranked dead last in the NFL and pressure rate on the defensive line. They allow a ton of pressure and they don't get after the quarterback. And they didn't really do much to fix that. Now, I know you're counting on, you know, Tevin Jenkins to take a step forward. Nate Davis, hopefully to get your money's worth there. Darnell Wright taking a step forward.

and then some of these other, you know, defensive players we've already mentioned taking stuff forward. But man, like, for all the talk of Caleb entering a good situation with the receivers, is it going to matter if the O line and the D line stink? I think I think darnel right will be better in year two. That'll help. And I think the center, I'm not overlooking that, like, they got better at center as well, in my opinion. So, like, I mean, that's, those are two areas where I can see it. Plus, I mean, I would love to say that Justin Fields is a chaos merchant, whatever, but like Caleb Williams is a chaos merchant of chaos merchant. So like to me, I wonder so much about that, right?

It's like, Caleb, you do have, I mean, you've got receivers, dude, and you should be able to, they're going to be able to run the ball, right? Like, they should be able to run the ball. Like if there's anything this offensive line can do, it should be to pat to run block. And you got backs. Can Caleb Williams thread the needle of running the offense and sprinkling in the cool off script stuff that he can do? Because, I mean, if you watch a play, it's on the non-eastern side.

He doesn't run the offense. He doesn't run the offense. That's what I was going to say. Man, yeah, that's interesting. I think you could see a lot of like just super high scoring game for them this year. Like, where they're losing games 30 to 40? You know, like, I don't know. It's tough because their secondary is really good.

So if they can manufacture a pass rush or some sort, to be honest, with Tremaine Edmonds, like his athleticism, that's what I would probably try to do with him, figure out ways we can get him free. Really, that was something that they talked about. about with the bills. Well, not not like actual like coaches, but like a lot of speculation from other people was like, should they let Tremaine Evans rush? I don't, I don't, I thought he was a bad blitzer though. He is. Yeah, he lacks instincts across the board, Joe. But what I thought, I think

Tramaine Evans, what he does best, it's, it's hard to measure it, but I think it's a lot of the throws that he takes away in the middle of the field because of his range, because of his length. He's like 35 five inch arms and he can move. Now, change the direction is not, not his thing, but like, that presence in the middle of the field might cause some quarterbacks to say no to some opportunities and, you know, go elsewhere. So I think that's kind of the best thing that he can do. And, you know, for a bigger linebacker, is he the best downhill player? I've never thought of that as a strength of his. So he's, he's very unique, but I mean, they're paying $18 million a season. They gave him a huge deal. He's got to be a highly impact full playmaker. That's what he's

got to be for them. Yeah, his cap it this year is 22-4. Big. Yeah, huge. Yeah, he's another one. Actually gave up over 80% of the balls into his coverage this year were caught. So that's not great. I think that can get better, though. That's obviously kind of fluky, but well, rough. All right. So you're not in. You're not in on the bears. You're not, you're not, you're not, you're not, you're not smelling the roses here. Dynamic. They could have games where they just are really, really tough to stop. They were tough to stop at times of Justin Fields. And I think Kayla Williams is a way better thrower of the football. So they should be tough to stop at times. But if it all comes down to the trench play at a certain point. And so could they win seven, eight games? Sure. Yeah.

I'm just not thinking them seriously other than that, though. What's curious to me about Chicago is like year one of Caleb Williams, but not year one of Ryan Poles of Matt Eberflus. So like if this doesn't come together and they make a change, now you have the worst thing in the whole world. A new regime that didn't draft the quarterback that you just got, right? Like this is what I've been saying all off season. If I were the Chicago Bears ownership, I would not have let them make this pick. Well, so what were you, would you have traded out of number one? Either trade out of number one or got rid of my regime or at least Eberfuss.

Maybe start with the head coach now because it's inevitable. They're especially in a division where you have the lines and the Packers set up to win now. They're not going to hit expectations. That's like year two, year three. Say they say Eber Flus makes it that long. he's still going to be playing, you know, under expectations. They won't be competitive for the division. So what, year two, year three, you're going to be switching coordinator,

coach, maybe GM on Caleb Williams then. I wouldn't have let him make this pick. Unless Kayla Williams is the next elite quarterback in the NFL and then. Which is in the range of outcomes for sure. The Minnesota Vikings for at Whitefield, they drafted your favorite player ever, J.J. McCarthy to be their quarterback. So this is going to be weird. I mean, are you going to be able to support him in Minnesota?

what's going to be the story there. But if I could lead the start off by saying this about Minnesota, I respect so much of what they've done because their first year with Kevin O'Connell, like totally overachieved in ways that don't make any sense, not sustainable, and they knew it, right? Like they were honest about it and they still stuck with their plan, right? They transitioned away from aging players and have stuck with their vision, where you like, you contrast that to the Giants,

who I thought won in unsustainable ways, right? beat Minnesota in the playoffs that year, they said, you know what, let's just keep as much of this as we can together and try to build off of it. I think that's one of the big mistakes that teams make all the time. That didn't happen for Minnesota. And so this has been a rebuild. They've turned over a ton of their roster that continued over the last couple of seasons. But now I kind of feel like they're at that launch point now where it's like, all right, we've been through this a little bit. And we're starting to get this in the vision that we wanted to be. but now you're starting with Sam Darnold, potentially as a quarterback,

J.J. McCarthy, waiting in the wing. So I like the long play here for Minnesota. What can we expect from them this year? Yeah, this is another tough one, man, because the division of playing isn't set up for them to be competitive this year, but they do have strength on their roster, really good offensive line.

Joe, in the QB discussion, we talked to Nature versus Nurture, right? And J.J. McCarthy is getting into a situation where got really good receivers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hawkinson is a pass catcher. Really good bookend tackles. Christian Derisaw and Brian O'Neill, arguably a top three set of tackles there, right? So he's coming in with a pretty good situation. The thing for me is like they play in a tough division again. We just talked about with the Bears.

I'm not sure what the expectations for this team should be right now when you play in a division with two teams ready to win, ready to go for it. And so, you know, on the offensive side of the ball, I feel like they're good. Aaron Jones is a big upgrade at running back for them. Across the board, they should be solid. I would expect McCarthy to take over the QB job sooner rather than later. I don't think this is a situation like Drake May where you want him to sit for a really long time. I don't know. What do you see there in the offense?

I see a lot to like, like you mentioned, wide receiver, tight end, tackle, running back. How good are these guards going to be? Can Engram, like he was so bad as a rookie. I thought he got a little better last year. I think he's got to take another step this year. and then Dalton Rizner, who I think is best football is behind him. I think those are the two players on this offense that feel the most important to me is those guards and how they can emerge this season.

I want to ask you this question because everybody raves about the situation that Caleb Williams is stepping into with the pairs. Do you like Minnesota's situation better? Like, is there a conversation to be had here that J.J. McCarthy is actually stepping into the better situation? 100%. I definitely think he is. I mentioned the tackles. The pass blocking, especially with those.

tackles, right? Dar esau is almost unbeatable. I mean, he's awesome. Brian O'Neill, one of the more solid right tackles in the league. That's going to give JJ a foundation to do what he does best, and that's run the offense, run that Kevin O'Connell offense, which is very similar. Even the terminology is similar to what he did in Michigan. And then he's got the best receiver in the world in Justin Jefferson, arguably, to play with. Jordan Addison is no slouch, another first round pick there. I mean, this is a phenomenal situation for him. And then you add the play calling to the mix. That's the thing we don't know about in Chicago too, right? Shane Wildren, like, it's been real touch or go in Seattle.

Like, it's been good at times, and then he was in L.A. before that, as a QB coach, right? It's been good at times, but, like, I don't really know what he's going to bring here. So, or to Chicago, where I think Kevin O'Connell's a much more experienced, developed play caller from that tree. So I think McCarthy's got a great situation. Yeah, I think the coaching piece of it leans me into Minnesota, to be honest with you. I really like it. And I think you have similar, I don't know,

you probably have a better offensive line with the Vikings. And Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, like, that's probably better than Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. So, and I like Aaron Jones better than, DJ Hawkins is better than this. This is a better situation. Yes, it is. And I don't think people are talking about it.

Defensively, dude, Brian Flores just runs a, it's a different, it's a different world, right? They play a different game on defense. They either blitz everybody or they drop eight, right? Like that's the extremes of the Brian Flores defense. And I think it's a scheme where I think he's got to kind of get his personnel in there the way that they wanted to. And I think that they made some transitions, obviously, like they said goodbye to Daniel Hunter and DJ want him. But then they bring in Jonathan Grenard and Andrew Van Ginkle who probably fit the scheme better.

Dallas Turner, they gave a ball. What's that? I think Van Ginkle fits the scheme better. He obviously played with Flores in Miami, but Grenard fits a scheme better? I think that I like Daniel Hunter as like a traditional like four three defensive end that like plays that style where Grenard I like as a guy that's going to move around to be part of these amoeba fronts and like Sam,

more Tadavian clownish. Yes, I think it's more of that. And so and he's, I believe he's probably younger and you don't have the back injury stuff to be thinking about all the time. And then, of course, they like swap out at linebacker. They bring in Blake Cashman, who, I mean, we'll see. I mean, he certainly had a good season with Houston. We'll see what he can be.

But then Ivan Pace is like this tailor made plug, you know, shoot downhill. He's the who's the guy that they have, Landon Roberts, right? He's the Alandon Roberts player for this defense. And then that corner, right, they, I think they've kind of had some, they've been playing with fire at corner over the last few years. And still I think, yeah, but it's better. They bring in Shaq Evans, right? Shack Griffin, excuse me.

But listen, I mean, they were relying on like a Caleb Evans and Mackay Blackman and Andrew Booth. And like now I think with Mattelis's development in the slot, they can play Murphy a little bit more outside of man coverage and live and die a little bit better with some more depth, I think was those players I just mentioned are now reserve type players. Joe, Shack Griffin was cut by a team in a playoff run who had no corners behind him in the Houston Texans. he was cut yeah but did you for this style of defense the ability to play a little bit more man coverage right like it's a stylistically different type type team be able to attack the ball and hurry throws like he's not going to have to like zone match and communicate and all that type of stuff i'll say this about that that style of defense and maybe this gets better because you're saying they got their guys in there now which could improve it but so fourth lowest

pressure rate in the league last year despite blitzing 51.5% of the time and then when they blitz, their pressure rate only went up 6.5%, 36.5%. So they, the payoff for what they do, the fire that they play with is not, it just wasn't worth to squeeze last year. Now, maybe Gernard and Van Ginkle being more scheme friendly fits at edge for them helps that situation a little bit. But man, they, they were really playing with fire. And I got some, some just really scary numbers.

Cam Bynum and Josh Mattelos last year, 86% of the balls thrown of their coverage were caught. combined that is insane and josh can bindam might not see the field a ton this year although he probably will right surely yeah he's a starter opposite of harrison smith i don't they don't have lewisine ain't get a play yeah and then so metallis and bindum still being starters in the way that because that defense is so wild wild west all of those safeties in the nickel they basically are all the same position right they like bindham played in the slot just as much as metellus did and vice versa so like there there's a ton of rotation that goes on you know post snap i'm just those are really bad numbers so

86% of the balls started of their coverage are caught and you don't you don't you see the stylistic way they play defense like you're not you're going to give up completions because you don't want to get burned over top because everyone's blitzing all the time yeah and i just feel like it cost them a lot and yeah but that's just how they play i'm not i mean like i it's not for me but it's how they play football yeah i get it i i I think what I had hoped to see from them, Joe, is like when, when I saw them transform into that defense last year, and it was, it's a little bit of a departure from what he was doing in Miami. He was aggressive, but he wasn't that aggressive. Right.

I thought, okay, this is because their corners stink and they need to manufacture pressure or at least the illusion of pressure to help the corners out. So I was hoping they go into the off season, like, hey, we really got to get better at corner. So we don't have to blitz 52% of snaps. And they didn't. They didn't do anything there. that's what really surprised me. Now, maybe they're counting on development from, from what Mackay Blackman was their third round pick

last year. Jay Wood, they converted him to safety officially? Who's that? Jay Ward? Yeah. Yeah, I think so. So, in my notes, I have him as a safety. They've really whiffed on some secondary draft picks, by the way. Lewis Seen, Andrew Booth, Jay Ward, Caleb Evans, Mackay Blackman, like that's, that's, they have, it's not called Blackman a whiff. I thought he was pretty

flashy last year. If he started opposite of Byron Murphy, I wouldn't be surprised. Okay. well, you touted and Shaq Griffin is a good signing, though. Right, it's a veteran in the room, man, a bunch of young guys. Byron Murphy's a veteran, though.

What do you need? Listen. I'm going to make you say three nice things about the Vikings here. If I'm going to get concerned about this defense, defense of tackle. We have Harrison Phillips and nobody.

Jerry Hillary, bro. Case in point. I don't even know. I'm looking at their depth. I don't even know a lot of these guys. You know, Jaquell and Roy, defense tackle out of LSU. He stinks.

I know. him Levi John Bullard never heard of him. Taki, Tymani, never heard of him. Tyler. I think you're like eight deep on the depth chart. Never heard of him. The roster, they're going to roster Harrison Phillips, Jerry, Jerry Tillery, Jaquell and Roy, Jonathan Bullard. That'll be the four defensive tackles they, they rushed. Oh, I forgot the head Bullard. Yeah, he's more of what, your five tech there. Yeah, it'll be the out front place some three tech in the. Yeah, I think they'll probably what, yeah, exactly. Yeah. It's a weird, weird defense. Yeah. Yeah, Tilleries been really bad. He stinks.

Yeah, I mean, maybe some sub-rush ability. But dude, he's just going to get blasted in the run game. Yeah. And they were pretty sure they were not good in the run game last year at all. They were, they were okay. They're okay. But tough, man. So how do you see this division shaking out?

Lions, Packers, Vikings, Bears. Same. Nailed it. The hardest is three and four. Like, I could flip-plop those. I feel good about the top two. How many wins do the Lions hit? I think 11.

11? Okay. Yeah. I'd take the over. over on that. Really? You think they win like 12 games? Yeah, I do. How many wins in the Packers get? 10. 10. I think I'd take the over there too. I'm looking at the line schedule right now. I got I got to do this. I got to look at this thing. All right. Hold on. Let me get there. It's loading. It's loading. Yeah. So I know that the schedule on paper, it's like middle of the pack for

strength the schedule. But then when you factor in travel and rest and where they're playing the road games, it actually sets up very favorably. Like you're not, I think, golf you're going to see golf in like messy snowy conditions once potentially all right let's look at this i think they beat the rams in week one i think they beat the bucks in week two at home i think they beat the cardinals in week three i think they beat seattle in week four so i'm at four and oh out of the buy they go into dallas and win that game crap they're was a five and oh i think they beat minnesota i think they beat where the loss is coming okay i'm going to have a split with the packers just for science yeah so you have them seven and oh

going into Green Bay. By the way, at Green Bay, at Green Bay being early in the year is good. Yeah. I'm going to have them take a loss to Houston because I need to lose some games. Seven and two. Okay, Jacksonville in Detroit. Give me the lions.

They're going to go beat the Colts. They're going to host the Bears and beat them on Thursday night flipball. 10 and 2. They're losing to the Packers. The Packers, I had the pack. That's, yeah, you said, I'm just going to do a split. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter how you.

11 and 2. Okay, so now our last four is Buffalo, the Bears, the Niners. Wait, so I haven't had 11 and 2 already? 11 and 2 versus Buffalo, yep. No, I have three losses. Oh, no, I didn't. I know you're not, you're, okay, there we go, 11 and 2.

So they're going to hit the over. Yeah, yes. It's like even if they lose in San Francisco, if they just beat the Bears or the Vikings, or the Vikings. They're going over. Yeah, so if they lose to Buffalo and San Francisco, man, they're going to win a game.

they're going to win a bunch of games it might be the one seat right that's what i'm saying like this schedule is soft bro right and this even their harder games they just lined up super favorably you didn't even get into the travel aspect of this too i'm pretty sure they play 49ers 49ers coming off of a short week so goodness gracious and they get buff no they get buffalo on extended rest as well yeah at home which is buffalo second home but yeah yeah yeah i mean it's not really goodness gracious yeah the the lions are going to to win like, I think they're going to win 12 games at least. That's what I'm saying.

But then it never, it's never chalk. Like you know that, right? Yeah. It never just goes like. Oh, dude, I'm on Ross St. Brown goes down week two. You're looking at trying to get 10 wins. You know, it's like you just never know. You just never know.

But them having home field would be huge. Oh, dude. Not having to go to San Francisco or like two Green Bay, too Philly. The mental aspect of not having to go back to San Francisco would be huge for them for sure. Right. So, man, that was probably sucky plane. so that we could we could toss a wet blanket and the lions there yeah there you go say three nice things

okay i just said i think they're going to win 12 games i'm out of here with that all right uh put gerard golf in top 10 quarterback i said all the nice things about the lions today yeah all right we got to get out of here jo um before we do though i did i was supposed to mention the youtube channel i didn't do that at the top of the show so if you're an audio only partaker we want you to get the best experience possible make sure you go hit the video element it's on youtube it's usually the first segment, YouTube.com slash fantasy points, subscribe, notification bell, make sure it's on. And then also, first read does have its own podcast feed on Spotify, the podcast app, Google Play. It's brand new. So we need five-star reviews. You can find the show also on the Fantasy Points Classic feed,

but we really want to grow our own feed. Make sure you go. Give us a five-star review. Say nice things about us. Talk about how handsome Joe is, et cetera. All right, remember folks, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read. Thanks for listening. We are out.