Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Off-Season Injuries To Monitor

Episode Date: June 7, 2024

Graham and Edwin go through the most important injury situations to keep track of for fantasy football. The guys talk through Joe Burrow's recovery, Jonothan Brooks return timeline, TJ Hockenson's risk, and much more. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield http://twitter.com/FBIInjuryDoc FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What? Why are you shaking here, Ed? You're welcome. Oh, what is going on? Welcome back to the Fantasy Points podcast. I am Graham. I'm one of the co-owners here at the best fantasy football site in the universe. And I'm today joined by our guy, Edwin Porras.

He is a physical therapist in the Denver area. You can check out his injury-prone podcast. Check out the pro athlete. If you're a pro athlete, go get some, some PT with my guy. Edwin, he's a former PT for the Minnesota Twins, and he is our injury expert. Here at Fantasy Points, Edwin, what's going on, man? Nothing, man. I'm excited to get back into the swinging things from a fantasy perspective. I'm excited to talk about somebody's injuries. I'm excited to be back on with you, man.

Like, let's get it. I'm excited. Let's do it. Yeah, man, this is the first time we've recorded in probably about a year and a half or so. And yeah, it's that time, man. It's June 4th. It's time to start thinking about preparing for fantasy football here at fantasy points we've been doing a bunch of projections best ball work i've got basically my best ball manifesto coming out in the next couple days players to target players to fade and i had to talk to my guy edwin to go through all of the important injury situations to monitor uh going into this off season and well let's get us started man we'll get started with quarterbacks and obviously last season we had a slew of injuries that just like completely not only just like devastated the

quarterback position for fantasy, but also just devastated some receivers and some running backs. We're going to cross our fingers that this year is a lot better, that Aaron Rogers, Kirk Cousins, all these guys can stay healthy. But let's get started there. Rogers and Cousins both coming off Pop to Killies, both are older. Rogers will get started with him first, you know, crossing the 40-year-old mark. He's coming back, though. He's obviously had nearly a full year to recover. What do you expect from Rogers and how excited, should I be about Garrett Wilson? Well, I think from a perspective of can Aaron Rogers hold up as a first question? And that's not just because he had the Achilles issue, right? I mean, he's a 40-year-old

dude coming off that tear. That's something to consider from a big picture perspective is, okay, he had one tendon tear. What's to say, and I don't mean to be a fearmonger, that's not what I'm trying to do. What's to say the other Achilles didn't get worked on while he was in rehab, too, right? What is to say that he won't have significant, you know, cap issues sort of like we saw with Joe Burrow last year because the cap is obviously one of the biggest. muscles that attaches down at the biggest tendon. The Achilles tendon is the biggest tendon in the body. So what are the chances that he's going to be able to hold up, stay healthy? Is he listening to enough dolphin porn to make sure that that Achilles doesn't pop again? Or his muscle staying, you know,

nice and strong the way he needs him to be. Moral of story, excuse me, I think that he can be fine. You probably, and it's not like he was, you know, Michael Vick out there anymore, but you'll probably see an even less mobile version of Aaron Rogers, which I guess if Garrett Wilson is getting open that could be a good thing for him, but really what it is is a good sign for my guy, Breece. Brice Hall, I think he's going to get a ton more checkdowns. I think that any, you know, obviously you've seen all the work that's been put out like JJ Zacharyson, for example, shown the more mobile a quarterback is, the worse it is for the running back from a fantasy perspective. I think you're going to get the exact inverse here. I think

you're going to get a lot of checkdowns of Breece. I think you're going to get a lot of short slants to Garrett Wilson. And another receiver we're going to talk about is Mike Williams here in a little but I'm not sure how open he can get. So I think that Garrett Wilson is just going to be just an absolute target monster. Yeah, I'm with you on that. And that's what I've been thinking about going through projections. It's just like, okay, if Mike Williams, he's 30 coming off in ACL, he might not be ready for camp.

Like they just drafted Malachi Corley, who I like. But like, man, he's a gadget, like slot player only probably for it as a rookie. Garrett Wilson's like walking into 26, 27, 28 percent target share. And yeah, man, I'm with you on Breeze, too. You know, you had one carry inside the five last year, Edwin, one. You can count it on literally one finger. That's going to go way out. It's kind of wild, actually.

Yeah, bro. I mean, you know, at the end of the day, I think we maybe overrate goalwind carries a little bit, just because, you know, they do happen relatively infrequently. But in Brees Hall's case, we're not overrating it at all. I've got Bijon one scosh ahead of Brees in my rankings, but it really is just just splitting hairs. All right, moving on to another guy who just popped his Achilles, although he's now 35, not 40.

Kurt Cousins, obviously drafted his successor in Michael Pennix. We do not need to belabor that point any longer. But, you know, cousins is going to be. I just want to say, that's a weird situation. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it kind of makes sense if they lose their first round pick because of the tampering, and we don't need to go on a whole diatribe about the NFL's tampering rules. But there's a chance that Falcons might lose some significant draft capital.

It makes a little more sense drafting pennics because you probably won't have any, you know, capital go to get a quarterback next year. But anyway, Kirk cousin is going to be a starter in 2024. Obviously, we're buying all the Drake London stonks. We're buying the Kyle Pitt stonks, the Bijon stonks. Kirkie's going to be coming back off the Achilles that he popped midseason last year. And, you know, I think it's going to be relatively same thing as Rogers, right? Yeah, I mean, pretty much the same thing.

It is a little different because this is his Kirk cousin's plant leg. his back leg. So it does make some bit of a nerd, if you're a nerd, you know, like a sports PT nerd, sports med, like you. Like you. It's okay. You can admit it. That's why I'm bringing it off. I'm trying to, I'm trying to say it's, I'm trying to say it casually as if I don't think it's interesting. But he's probably going to be fine too. He's had plenty of time. The procedures are much better these days. The rehab is much better these days. These, these guys are coming back. But again, the same thing is sort of taken into effect here in terms of can his other Achilles hold up, can his soft tissue hold up, how often will he have cramping in the calf, cap tightness, you know, are they going to be

basically, you know, wrapping his calf down so much that it looks like he has no calf during the end of the season? This is more of like a can they hold up type of question. I think they can, but again, we haven't seen quarterbacks in this day and age come back and be fine after an Achilles. but I do think that they can be. It's not the end of the world. Same thing goes as for Aaron Rogers. Kirkie was not as mobile anyway. You're probably going to get an even less mobile version of them now.

I think that some longer step, you know, five-step drops maybe would be in his future, at the very least just so that he can get back and get some time back there. So other than that, again, it's more of a can-y-hold-up type thing. But I don't know if he saw Graham. Bejohn is going to get used like Christian McCaffrey. the Kirsch McAfee who just got a contract extension this morning. So, I mean, I don't know why you don't have Bijon 101, because after all he said, he's going to get like 800 touches.

Bejohn, man, listen, last year we're getting away from, you know, R.D. Smith. We're getting away from the weird red zone usage. Our guy, Ryan Heath, post a step that Bijon is like the RB 45. In terms of carry share inside the 20 last year, just absolutely bananas. That's going to change. But I thought Bijon's inside, you know, outside of his red zone usage, was fine last year. But yeah, year two back on an offense that, you know, has Kurt Cousins significant, significant upgrade in terms of touchdown rate. I was looking at this before he came on.

Kirk Cousins has never had a touchdown rate below 4% as a starter, but it's also never been higher than 6.8. He has one season ahead of, above 6. That was 2020, the COVID year where he went nuts through 35 touchdowns, but just super consistent in terms of his touchdown rate. And I think it's really, really going to help Bijan's slight reason. I have him ahead of Brise is just, I think his touchdown equity is a little stronger than breezes. That being said, like I said, it's really splitting hairs. Edwin, one guy I cannot stop drafting right now is Anthony Richardson. I think this is probably the cheapest we're going to see him for a very, very long time. He's like QB6, QB7 by ADP. I think you could make a legitimate case

for him at like QB3. If he stays healthy for all 14, 15 games, and he stays at the pace getting the goal line carries that he was getting last year, I saw these up to 240. 50 pounds, man. That's Cam Newton's size these days. You know, A. Rich is 6, 4, 6,65 like Newton. So he's got the frame for it. He's coming back from kind of a tricky shoulder injury, but, man, he's had a ton of time to rehab it. He said this Monday that his shoulder feels about 95% strength in a podcast appearance he was on with Pat McAfee. You know, it should be all systems go for Richardson come training camp, right? To the moon. Like, to the moon, Anthony Richardson. If I was ranking him, I don't rank, so this is maybe going to show my ignorance. I'd rank him number one overall.

I have no concerns. He's going to get another. I mean, listen, maybe he's two, maybe he's three. Honestly, I'm more concerned about the concussion as opposed to like the freak shoulder injury. You don't see these shoulder injuries happen very often in these guys. What exactly was it? It's an AC joint fracture and separation.

So the separated shoulder that you see guys, so the collarbone was separated, literally physically separated from the outside shoulder bone. And when that happens, obviously the collarbone was sort of floating in space. There's probably a fracture that went through there. They put it back in place. They pinned it so that the fracture could heal and the joint could come back together. Is it a big deal? No.

You know, it's mostly, you know, a lot of players play through these. It's just that his was so severe. And so they just needed to fix it. They needed to repair it. 90% of the time, those actually get better on their own. As long as he's keeping up with his maintenance stuff, right? As long as he's working with the trainers every day that he can, he's keeping the shoulder moving and active.

There's no reason why this shoulder. Now, again, I say this, I'm getting Tony Pollard flashbacks. You know, there's no reason based on the data that we should be worried about Anthony Richardson coming out. Like I said, if anything, the rate for the re-injury of a concussion is really the biggest concern. But dude, I'm willing to take on any of that risk. Like, I'm willing to take Anthony Richardson before Josh Allen.

I'm willing to take him before Jalen Hurts. Like, I'm going to take them before any of those guys. I've decided. I've been, here's what I've learned, Graham. For the last couple years, I've drafted with you, and I've drafted with some really smart people. And I get really upset when I wait for the ADP, and I try to gain, especially in the sharp drafts,

I try to gain some ground, I try to find the values. There's just no value. So I'm just going to say, F it this year. I'm going to draft Anthony Richardson. If it's a super flex, I'm going to take them 101. I'm going to come back. I'm going to scoop back around. I'm going to take another superflex quarter.

I'm going to continue to hammer these guys that I want. Like this is a year where I'm going to not be a slave to the ADP. And Anthony Richardson is squarely in my crosshairs in every draft. Yeah, I'm not there yet to have him over Hertz and Allen, but I do think it's a legitimate case between like him over Mahomes, him over Lamar. Like his rushing upside is just so, so sick. And I know, you know, you're going to be extremely aggressive on Richardson. I already think I'm pretty aggressive on him.

I have him like five, six spots out of ADP. Overall, I'll probably just kind up moving him up more. after our conversation here. But yeah, you don't have to pay an arm and a leg for Richardson this year. I mean, he's going in the fifth round and an underdog. Yeah, he's such a good ground. What do you think is suppressing that, by the way? I know, I don't want to get off topic.

Is it the injury? Yeah, it's the injury. It's the injury. And everybody correctly loves Mahomes to bounce back. So he's QB4. You know, obviously Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in town just gives them some legitimate deep threats. And, I mean, CJ Stroud might be paid Manning, man.

Like, I was having this conversation with our guy, Chris Wecht, who's doing our projections this year. And I was like, there's a real chance. Like, he's already just, like, kind of that level of talent elevator. Obviously, Stroud doesn't have the rushing upside. But, I mean, there's, you know, I feel like Stroud's going to be thrown 35 touchdowns for the next 10 years. Strau doesn't have the rushing upside of Peyton Manning. I agree. Yeah, noted, uh, noted scrambler, Peyton Manning.

Yeah, man. It's tight, man. I really for best ball comes down to like quarterbacks are kind of a means to an end except for Lamar and Anthony Richardson and Jane Daniels. Like those guys just have so much independent rushing upside. You know, if you're drafting best ball right now, really just, you know, you're trying to stack up players. We'll keep it moving here and talk about Joe Burrow talking about, you know, rare injuries. Joe Burr had a very freak wrist injury. Edwin, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think a quarterback has ever sustained this type of wrist, kind of like ligament injury.

Luckily, though, all of these injuries happened early in the season. So Burrow has had plenty of time to get right here. What's the level of concern with Burrow? And what exactly was the specifics of his injury? Yeah, so there's a small, you have a ton of ligaments in your hand. You have a ton of ligaments, tendons. Like there's a reason that hand surgeons and sub-specialties exist and why they get paid the way that they do. It's why we would send our, you know, our big leaguers who needed anything hand done.

we'd send him to a hand specialist, whether it was in the middle of freaking Ohio. No offense to Ohio, I'm sorry. I had to fly there once. It was just, it was not a good experience. I drove through Cincinnati and I was like where Cincinnati. Anyway, I'm getting on a side. You just pissed off a whole swath of people in Ohio. I was a beautiful statement.

I know our boy Jake, Jake Trivy is. Yeah, yeah. Seaving right now. We'll make sure Jake doesn't listen to this. So anyway, so what, based on the reports, and I have, cell box on this based on the reports of what we've seen. It was a scapollunate ligament rupture. It's a tiny ligament that connects two tiny bones in your hand. They went in there. They repaired it. They stuck it back in. There was some, I don't know, random or you could

call me a random ortho, but there's a random doc that said he's going to have inflammation, whatever, on and off or something like that. Like here's the thing. Anthony Richardson's going to have inflammation on and off. Kirk Cousins is going to have inflammation on and off. Brise Hall is going to have it. Like, the list goes on on all the guys. that are on this list are going to have quote unquote inflammation on and off once i've said this all the time here i'm the best predictor for injury for future injury is previous injury yes he's at risk to hurt it again yes he's at risk to hurt the cap again but that's just how the game goes is this going to be something that holds him back like no i think that maybe he'll be on the report especially

since they got dinged for that by the way i don't know what was going on with that situation last year where they didn't put him on the report he should have been on the report but probably be on the report a handful of times, you know, he's going to look bad in the first three games like he always does, because it always takes him a few games to warm up. People are going to panic. People are going to trade him away. He's more than likely going to be fine. Like, no, there aren't any quarterbacks that have ever had this specific injury that we know of that are documented. And of course, there's always a chance for re-injury. But man, I'll tell you, when it is the May scleries for fantasy football degenerates, like, I will tell you that that was the May

scaries. Like, remember when Cooper Cup was going to retire, right? And he was going to, whatever, move on an island. Like obviously he didn't look the same, but he didn't retire. This is just what happens. Like people panic. People have a lot of time on their hands. There aren't any drafts going on unless you're on best ball, you know,

unless you're doing best ball drafts. I wouldn't be concerned about Joe Burrow in his hand. If the hand is the reason that you're not drafting him, trade me Joe Burrow in any league that you're in. Trade me the pick that you want to use because I will draft Joe Burrow and I will not think twice about it as long as it's in a range where it's obviously after Anthony Richards. Yeah, yeah.

A. Rich first. And then, yeah, I like Kyler a little ahead of Burrow. I have them back to back in my best ball rankings. You know, Kyler coming back off the ACL. You and I were all over Kyler last year. Hell yeah, yeah. He didn't have a great ceiling, but he was a solid QB, you know, back in QB1. If you were in Superflex, he probably really helped you late in the season last year.

But, yeah, I've got Kyler at QB7, Burr at QB8, and I've got both of them nearly 10 spots ahead of ADP. I just, I think receiver kind of dies once you get into like maybe the 70s. 75, 80 overall, and I've got those two ahead of quite a few receivers in that pocket, just because I love Kyle's rushing upside. Then, you know, Joe Burrow just feels massively discounted compared to where he was last year. Chase and Higgins, I know there's the whole contract dispute

with both those guys now, but they're going to be on the field come week one. They're going to have all systems go. And we're just getting a nice, really nice injury discount on Burrow. All right, rounding out the quarterback discussion. we got to chop it up about Deshawn Watson. He's coming back from a shoulder injury. Obviously, no Joe Flacco there to back him up. We got our board James backing up to Sean Watson this year.

But Watson basically, he's on a throwing program. He hasn't thrown a whole lot in OTAs. But the Browns have just continued to kind of downplay this injury. There's just not a whole lot of specifics about the injury. So, Edwin, I'll let you go into detail about Watson here. Yeah, so the Sean Watson injury, I think was a little interesting. It was much worse than I think that they led on initially.

Yeah. So the thing about Watson is that, yeah, so I'm looking at this article from April, right? And it says Watson's continued to progress his rehab from right shoulder that ended his 23 season. And the fact that he's still on a throwing program, I think those to show the extent of the injury, they really had to tie him down. So when you tie it, you go in there, he tore the labor, that's part of it. He had a fracture. He tore the labrum. I mean, that's like a six-month rehab just on its own. And so that's why they basically had to get him back on a throwing program. I'll say compared to Anthony Richardson's shoulder injury, this is more concerning from a longevity perspective and honestly a short-term perspective.

So once you get that shoulder tied down, there are legitimate concerns of his throwing motion changing just because they tied him down so tight intentionally because the labrum is met to hold. you down and once you aren't being held down by that labrum you have to go in there artificially tie it down sometimes it gets too tight right so there are more factors and really what I'm saying there are more factors in play for Deshawn Watson than there were for Anthony Richardson the fracture should heal that should not be a big deal but interestingly man you saw that Drew Brie's had a very similar injury excuse me of course Drew Brie's played for however many years after but the reason Drew Brie's actually couldn't play anymore is because he got that arthritic shoulder joint at any time that you have an inside of

the joint. Anthony Richardson's was outside of the joint. Deshawn Watson's shoulder injuries inside the joint. Anytime you have an inside the joint injury, you open up your risk for arthritis. When you get arthritis, that's not reversible. You can't really play as an elite athlete. We saw that with Todd Gurley's knee. So, you know, it's one of those things that is he probably going to be back and be fine? He'll be healthy, sure. But there are a lot more question marks around Deshawn Watson. Obviously, I'll let you get into his play. And you can talk about that aspect, but just throw in honestly like the severity of the injury and the fact that he's he should be back by training camp but honestly like from a dynasty perspective i'm just out if the value is there in redraft i guess but like yeah man i'm just i'm a little more worried i'm not saying i'm like i'm not trying to you know hit the panic meter i'm a little more worried about dashan watson than i am about anthony richards and their injuries were just totally different that makes sense and i think the only i mean beyond just everybody knows the off field stuff and just his play has just been completely off from his career norms, you know, prior to 2020 with the Texans.

The big concern I have for me, just thinking this through with you is like, you know, what if he starts running less? You look at his career rushing rates. His first three seasons, he averaged nearly, you know, 33, 34 yards per game on the ground. That's continued to come down year over year. Last year was a career low at 23.7 yards per game. I think we can project even lower this season. So to me, like if Watson is, you know, kind of a mad passer, 6.5 yards per attempt last two seasons with a 4% touchdown rate,

combined with the fact that he's, you know, maybe not going to run as much because of his shoulder injury, it's a huge concern. I've got him behind Baker Mayfield in my best ball ranks. And again, I say quarterbacks are a means to an end. If you have Amarie Cooper in the fourth round, you draft him, let's say, like 45 overall, absolutely bump up to Sean Watson.

You know, you're going to want that Cooper to Watson stack. But, yeah, Watson's rushing upside is just not what it used to be. And obviously, he has a passer, you know, through 11, 12 full starts. He's been a shell of himself. Before we get going on some more injuries, we're going to take a brief pause for these messages. All right, Edwin, we are talking through the injuries to monitor going into this season. And running back, man, it's actually not as nearly as bad as quarterback. We had so many bad quarterback injuries last year.

The one that really was truly horrendous watching it live was Nick Chubb. Watching our guy, Nick Chubb, get injured in the way he did on television was pretty brutal. This will be his second ACL reconstruction in the same name. However, Edwin will get into the details here. He also had like his MCL and meniscus impacted in this latest injury. He'll be 29 years old this season. I hate to say it, man. I've been like the biggest Nick Chubb stand since he came out career.

5.3 yards per carry is averaged at least 5 yards for carrying every single season of his career. He's averaged at least 80 yards per game in five straight seasons. Just bananas consistency. You know, this knee injury is a huge concern, though. What do we do with Nick Chubb? Because right now, Ed, when he's going 112, 113 overall in best ball, And if that sticks in redraft, I don't think it will. I think his ADP will be a lot higher in redraft.

But just for this thought experiment, like in redraft, it's a lot easier to replace Chubbs production. You know, we have the waiver wire. You can just churn through running backs. And if Chubbs not back until like week five, week six, week seven, you know, it's fine. And best ball, you're taking straight zeros. You know, that's five, six, seven weeks of just zeros. And he's going to 112. I got to admit I have not been taking a whole lot of Chub.

No. Yeah. And honestly, my best comparison, and before I could dive into the specific details for Nick Chubb is last year's Javonte Williams. I mean, Javante made a pretty miraculous comeback from a timeline perspective, but obviously didn't look the same, injured his groin. It just was, it was not a great outing for Javentay Williams.

And these first years back for these running backs that don't meet the criteria we were looking for, all the reasons I was on Brise Hall are the exact reasons I was off of Jomte. So, you know, you can look at this in a similar perspective from Nick Chub. Like at this point, we have, I have data dating back to 2010 on ACR, ACLs, right? And I even sort of shorten that filter to 2015 to where it's a little bit more progressive, you know, methods, surgeries, rehab. And when you look at the track record for 26 year olds and above, 26 year olds and older, who have running backs who have this

ACL injury, it's very rare they come back before 11 months, but it doesn't mean that it's not possible. So we know that Nick Chubb had, like you said, yeah, the ACL, he had the full MCL and he had the full meniscus. Like injury looked brutal, but really, it's not uncommon for these two surgeries to happen separately. So he had the MCL and the meniscus surgery, September 30th. He had the ACL reconstruction November 14th. And I don't know if you mentioned it or not, but this is the same knee where he had the PCL reconstruction as well

after his college season. So we are at severe risk for Todd Gurley knee with Nick Chubb. That's just the unfortunate reality. Again, the more exposures that you have to adjoint on the inside of it, the more likely you are to, you know, spontaneously develop this arthritis. So that's a high risk for him, right? Like that's just a high risk. The other thing is obviously he's not a spring chicken. Obviously, he's younger than both of us Graham, but he's from a running back perspective, he's really getting towards that clip. When you have

these inside the joint issues, you know, knee irritation becomes an issue. Is he going to continue to have persistent swelling? How is he going to progress through? Right? Because I mean, two surgeries is two surgeries, regardless of how you cut it. No pun intended. So now the long of it is can Nick Chubb come back in the first few weeks of the season? I do think it's possible. I do think that it's honestly at this point sort of looking at the timeline. As long as he's progressing well, I think it's likely that he's back in the first few weeks of the season. Again, this is hopefully, you know, he doesn't have any setbacks or anything like that. We're sitting here in June. I can't tell you for sure. But as long as you get news,

we get news that he's progressing well, he should be able to be back within the few weeks. think at worst, he's back somewhere in the early October range. But the problem isn't just can they come back. Can Nick Chub come back? It's can he come back and have that monster efficiency in any data that you look at regardless of who the guy is, you know, unless your name is Adrian Peterson, which Nick Chubb, I guess, not too far off, but unless your name is Adrian Peterson, these, these efficiency, you know, the efficiency and the performance just is not there. I would expect an 80% Nick Chubb. and I just, again, I think that an 80% Nick Chubb is like a fine replaceable back, like you're sort of mentioned, but I'm just, I'm just not excited to draft him.

I hope that he can hold up, but I just am not, I'm not counting on it. I'm not banking on it. Yeah, it's really, it's really tricky in best ball right now. It really kind of just comes down to two things. One, how many running backs you already have. Like if you're going with a zero running back team and you need some floor points, like I, man, I don't think I could have a Nick Chub team. you know, on a zero running back team that like as my RB2.

However, you know, if you're trying to go for like a bully team and you've got, let's say like Brees, round one, you came back and you got like Travis CETN or like James Cook in rounds four or five, then it might make a little more sense because you're insulating yourself from his downside risk because I do think there's some upside at this cost. You know, he's, you know, RB 35, RB36 by ADP. You know, he could definitely beat that. It just really comes down to how much you can insulate yourself from from his risk. man, it does pay me to say it.

I will probably have very little Nick Chubb this year. Speaking of a guy I had a ton of last year, and I'm probably not going to have very much of this year, Kiron Williams. Listen, I mean, I think the Blake quorum thing has just been completely overblown. I think Kiron's like a lock for 70% of the snaps. However, Karin Williams has a foot issue going into OTAs,

and Sean McVease tried to downplay it as he does. However, any time we see Kiron with a foot issue, it's a problem. I mean, the guy has a history of, you know, he's got two high-inclus brains, he's got a foot injury. He's sustained early in his rookie season. This really could be nothing, but with Kiron Williams and foot injuries, it could be something. And like you always say, you know, past injury leads to future injury. And with Kiron, it does seem like a reoccurring problem. It does, man.

And at this point, you know, it's like you said, the third foot issue in the last two years or something like that. Not great. You don't love to see that. Like you said, the high ankle sprain is there, the history of the high ankle sprain. He was supposed to break out in 22. And then he had the severe high ankle sprain. It just didn't happen for it. Now he's having this foot issue.

It's not so much that we think this specific foot issue is a problem. It's the aggregate of everything that we know in his history. Is it, you know, a Jones type issue? Is it a Liz Frank type issue? We don't really know. It could be any type of those sprains. But any time you have persistent foot and ankle issues, it actually reminds me of Lombardi-Lennie.

So Lombardi-Lennie, obviously, not a spring chicken himself. But he, he totally fell out. He didn't even do like replacement level stuff at all, right? He kind of just fell out of the league and nobody wants to sign him. He had a long history of foot and ankle issues. And I wonder if that is part of the reason why teams either didn't want to take any more chances on him or if it was just such an issue that it just wasn't really something that, that let him perform anymore, right? So he's totally out of the league at age 28, Lombardy is. So, you know, I'm not saying that's going to be Kyron Williams' fate.

but I am saying that in probably most bestball draft I'm going to draft Blake Corum and throw them on the end of my bench as my RB 4-5 and we'll see where that goes. That is really the extent of the analysis on Kyron for me. Yeah, that's the way I'm playing it too. Kiron is, was a second round pick. Now he's kind of sliding correctly into the third round.

I have him at the back end of the third round behind pretty much all the third round receivers plus Hertz and Allen. I think you can make a legitimate argument between Kairn versus Derek Henry and Travis E.T.N. This season, obviously, Henry is probably not going to be a belkow to the extent Kiron can be. However, Henry's touchdown upside with the Ravens is just monumental. And then Travis Etyn, like, you know, was the quietest bell cow of all time last year. I think Tank Bigsby stinks.

Dierrich Johnson was playing ahead of him to close out last season. You know, beyond the foot issues with Kiron, it's, you know, he's undersized, man. He's 194. I don't think draft capital matters once you do what Kyron did, but he was a fifth round pick. They did just take Blake in the third. I think that's, man, it's tricky because like, you know, Kyron could absolutely come out and play 12 games this year and get 70% of the snaps and be absolutely worth it, if not a smash at ADP right now. But now, there's just enough downside risk where I think he's more of a back-in third round pick as opposed to a second

round pick right now with all of these receivers DJ Moore Jalen Waddle Steph Deggs DK Metcalf like all those guys Sam Laporta even I've got report over Kyron right now I'm not too too concerned about workload like I said at the top but yeah these these recurring foot issues are sketchy I have been trying to sell my Kyron shares and dynasty I have a bunch of teams that have Kyron that are competitive but I got to admit it's it's feels kind of good to maybe try to get out right now. Beyond that, man, I really want to talk to you about Jonathan Brooks, rookie running back coming in from Texas. He is the Panthers, soon to be Bell Cow. He was having

an absolutely amazing season last year before ripping his ACL. However, it seems like it was just the ACL. He has surgery on December 1st last winter, putting his nine-month return in the middle of August, which is nice. Brooks really haven't seen too much out of Panthers' beats so far. Obviously, he's not working at OTAs. But what are your thoughts on Jonathan Brooks, man? Obviously, didn't get combined metrics on him so we don't know exactly what his athleticism would have been, because I know that's a major prerequisite,

kind of a scoring factor for you is like how athletic a player is really matters coming back from an ACL. And I think Javonte, we just spoke about Javentay a minute ago. He's a pretty good example of this. Like, Javonte is a fine athlete, but he's certainly no Bruce Hall. I think Jonathan Brooks probably would have been somewhere in the middle, like not a 90th percentile athlete like Bruce Hall is, but maybe like 75th, 80th. What are your thoughts on Brooks going to this season?

Yeah, I think you kind of laid it out pretty well there. With the ACL surgery, like you said, it is at least a nine-month recovery for most guys, unless your name's Chris Godwin, then you'll re-injury your hamstring or Michael Gallup and you just won't look the same ever again. That's what tends to happen with guys that come back before nine months. So you wait the nine month mark, you come back. I have his surgery 12, 5, so that would put in, like you said, like September-ish for that specific nine-month mark.

I think it's doable. I think they'll work him in. I don't necessarily think they'll pup him unless they really want to be conservative. And listen, that'd be the sharp move. I don't think we can expect that from the Panthers necessarily. So I do think that they'll work him in slowly. They'll probably, you'll see some combination of Miles Sanders and, you know, what's his name Chuba Hubbard.

He's such a jag, man. He can't even remember his name. I feel bad about that. Hey, I forgot about Chuba Hubbard plenty of times. Hey, man, Oklahoma State legend. He tore Kansas State up a few times, dude. It kind of pissed me off, honestly. He used to really irritate me.

Anyway, Jonathan Brooks, I think we'll get mixed in here in the first few weeks of the season. I do think that he can be close to a bell cow, right? if he can turn it around. Now, I know that I hammer on athleticism, right, but opportunity is huge too. And as long as that his injury was just an ACL, as long as you said, like he's a close to pretty high elite level athlete,

and as long as he give him the volume, I think, what did you say? Where is he going from an ADP perspective? Right now, and he was going in the 100s to start draft season. It's been pinched down in like the high 80s. So it's basically like him versus Najee versus Zach Moss, Jalen Warren that's the 80s

I'm probably taking Brooks over all those guys honestly personally Okay That's how I have it ranked And that's how we have it projected Yeah Brooks Brooks just projects so well man

Because like like I said Chubas a jag Miles Sanders is dead And I love Brooks And yards created You know I had Benson at 1A I had Brooks at 1B Pre-draft

And I said you know If you have Brooks at 1 You know definitely not going to fight you on that I've got Brooks As the clear one rookie back coming into this year. And yeah, you know, hearing you say all these, you know, positive things definitely helps. You know, Trey Benson and Marshawn Lloyd also, you know, they have knee injuries in their history.

Benson's in 2020 and Lloyd's was 2020 as well, right? Yes, from what I have. Okay. Yeah. So, you know, that's the thing with this entire rookie class. All these dudes at one point had catastrophic knee injuries. Trey Benson's career almost ended. He had to transfer out of Oregon because of it.

I'm very bullish on Brooks. this season. And the main reason I'm bullish on Brooks for fantasy, well, one, I think he's a really good player too. I kind of like Bryce Young to bounce back just a little. Dave Canales is an awesome coach. They finally got him. There's nowhere to go but up, right? Well, bro, that's the thing. Like, yeah, like literally the worst all the rookie season. Like one of the worst rookie seasons ever. Yeah. And so like to a certain degree, you're to a certain degree you're sitting here with Bryce Young, correct me if I'm wrong. And you're like, he's so bad that he could still. be good, right? Like, there's still some hope there with the right coaching and situation.

I mean, we're looking at most likely. Like, if you're looking at range of outcomes, he's a bust, but Canales has done such a great job with Gino and Baker, you know, getting those, those guys to kind of resurrect their careers. You know, I do think, you know, D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett and Mike Evan and Chris Godwin had a lot to do with that. But I think Canales is a legitimately great coach, top 10 play caller in the NFL already. And, you know, they've gotten some significant reinforcements between Brooks. What do you mean? Jonathan Mingo?

What's wrong with Jonathan Mingo? Oh gosh. Well, they replaced him with a better version in Xavier Ligette, who... Every time I see that highlight, you know what I'm talking about with Mingo where he's like catching the ball and... Yeah, on the sidelines, but he like... Yeah. An impressive athletic feat.

Just very curious as to why that happened. Sorry. No, you like reverse Jemar chased it, bro. It's, uh, it's brutal. It's brutal out here. All right, one more running back. We need to talk through, and it really is just this Chargers back filled as a whole is a mass. Mr. J.K. Dobbins, sir, is coming back from an Achilles injury.

I hope I got that right. Mr. J.K. Dobbins, did not get mad at me? Mr. Sir, coming back from an Achilles injury, man, it's just all-time brutal luck, like him and Camp Acres. Just to have all-time brutal luck. I have a dynasty scene with Dobbins and Acres once on it. Oh, man, you were an acre. Dan, I remember I was excited for acres because of you. Well, he went to a great spot, man.

I thought he was going to be the god to replace Gurley. And, you know, you're just, uh, say your home. You had a really rough rookie season. Then he got hurt and then he got hurt again. And man, Dobbin, same thing. Uh, an Achilles injury. It's been so easy just to kind of write him off. I, I feel like that's a little lazy.

But man, like between his injuries now this Achilles, Achilles issue. Man, I really think the, what's the, what do you think the light? Like if you could put a percentage on it, what's the likelihood that Dobbins is fantasy relevant this year? I would say. I'd have to put you on the spot. I would say that 10 to 20% chance he's fantasy relevant. Bro, I had 15% in my head. Yeah, 10 to 20 is what I'm saying.

Here's the thing. We know a lot about Mr. JK Dobbins. For those of you don't know, the reason that I started addressing Jackie Dobbins is Mr. Jacob's, sir, is because he came after somebody on fantasy Twitter and was he was in the mentions, man. He was responding. He was scaring people and I was nervous. So I would use Mr. J. K. Dobbins, sir, at a respect. And that's why we will continue to call him. Again, the thing with J.K. Dobbins is, okay, isolate the Achilles. He had the ACL. It was severe. It took him like 13 months to come back. He came back. He scarred down way too much. Sometimes that happens. That's a genetic thing.

His body created way too much connective tissue. They had to go in, scope it out, clean it out, open up his mobility again and he had to go back out there. Right. It was impressive what he did at the time, because he was dragging a leg, he was probably like a true 80% playing at true 80%. And he was still, I mean, he had a couple runs where you could see the flash, you could see what he could have been. Now fast forward, he pops the Achilles.

You really, and again, just those two things on their own, pop the ACL to this day, we don't have a successful Achilles. I was saying when Kamakers did it, yes, it's great that he came back quickly. No, it wasn't gonna, you know, it didn't seem like it was gonna end well. And it didn't, unfortunately, KMakers out of the league.

This injury is the reason that it's specifically bad for running backs is because I'll try to keep it as simple as possible so that I don't nerd out. A tendon is an extension of muscles. The tendon needs to be able to store energy and then quickly release energy. Well, when you tear it and you repair it, there are infiltrates that get in there that it's not a pure tendon anymore, right? That's pretty obvious. And it's repaired and it's locked down and sometimes your body scars it down and you can't move it. as quickly. You're not as explosive. You need your, it's, again, it's the biggest tendon in your body. So now you can see how as a running back needing to jump cut, to sprint, to turn, to explode,

you know, to be able to make maneuvers that are quick, powerful, and explosive, that is why it's difficult for running back to come back from an Achilles injury. Now, look at Mr. J.K. Dolbin's stir situation. He came back from the ACL, a major ACL issue, all the ligaments that you could possibly have popped, and he scarred down way too much. There, Now that we know that about him specifically as an individual, how do we know that that's not going to happen to the Achilles? The Achilles is going to scar down too much. He's going to have even less mobility than the average earning back coming back from these.

I just, there's a lot to say there. I know I got really nerdy for a second, but I hope Mr. J.K. Obamster isn't listening to this because I'm afraid of him still. But I just don't, I'm not investing. Dude, I don't know. I get it. Like that backfield is weird. I don't, that whole situation is weird.

It's almost like Jim Harbaugh wants to take a redshirt year. It seems like you tell me, I don't know. but I'm not investing in any JK Dobbins. Yeah, Greg Roman just wanted to bring all the homies back with Edwards and Dobbins. They brought in six-rounder Kamani Vadal, who's been gassed up. I did like the doll's tape a little bit, man, but he's a six-round pick. The hit rate on those guys is even lower than 10 to 20%. Yeah, I've been out on Dobbins.

I guess the good thing that you can point to is, yeah, sure, he'll be 26 this year. Yeah, sure, he is a good athlete. but at this point, these injuries are just massive, massive problems for him. Missed the entire 21 season, obviously with the knee, wasn't really fully himself in 22 and now has the Achilles. I guess, again, the good news is he popped at week one last year, but it's tricky. You know what's not tricky?

We'll be back right after these messages. And we are back talking through injuries to monitor with our expert. Edwin Poris. Edwin, let's buzz through these receiver issues. Luckily, you know, obviously we had a lot of quarterback problems. We had, you know, Nick Chubb, obviously not a ton to talk through with these receivers. The big one here is Mike Williams coming off in ACL. The Jets signed him to a one year kind of prove it deal.

However, Mike Williams tours ACL in early October last year. He'll be 30 years old going into this season. And he is still like without a time. line. Robert Sala this week basically said, we don't know if he's going to be ready for training camp just yet. It is June 4th. I'm not totally panicking on Mike Williams, but what level of concern should we have for Big Mike? And what is your data say about receivers coming into their age 30 season coming off ACL injuries? Not great, Graham. Not great for 30-year-old wide receivers coming off in ACL. So more than half of wide receivers in general, right? More in general, more than 50

percent of wide receivers never reach at least 90 percent of their of their previous fantasy football production. I don't know if that's clear or not, but basically more than half of wide receivers never touch their peak. That's generally speaking. Now, obviously, like you said, you filter out for age. It's even less likely unless your name's like Julian Edelman for you to come back after the age 30 season and be successful.

Another thing, shout out Matt Harmon that I looked at when it came to receivers, is a predictor for success after an ACL is actually having an 80% success rate against the zone, which makes sense because wide receivers who can pick their spots, find the soft spots, they can work their way back towards the quarterback, et cetera, et cetera. That is another indicator of players coming back and be able to have their previous success. Mike Williams is right around 78%. So he's on that border. He's not a separator, man.

He's never been. technically he's got 80% success trying to get zone. But again, you know, is Aaron Rogers going to look across the field and want to sling it to Mike Williams? Probably not. He's going to probably try to get the ball

to Garrett Wilson. He's going to probably try to get the ball to Brice Hall. And of course, he's going to probably try to get the ball to Tyler Conklin. So I don't even know if he's still there. Yeah, I just wanted to say the name Tyler Conklin.

Oh, he is. And he's going to get 87 targets again, the fourth straight year. So much. Oh, my gosh. He would all, you know, sometimes when I would, with bargain shop tight ends in DFS though.

I'd throw Tyler Conklin in there. Oh, yeah, man, especially on DK. He's good for five for 50. Absolutely. The old Jason Witten special. Oh, yeah. But no. Okay.

So really, long story short. Long story short, I don't necessarily want to invest in Mike Williams. I don't think that he's going to have some bounce back season. You know, the ACL is really an issue. I'm not certain how well he's going to be able to separate anyway. Again, Aaron Rogers knows where his bread is butter. and it's not necessarily with Mike Williams. So I'm just not in on him.

Yeah, I've got him 25, 30 spots below ADP in best ball because I think there's a real chance that he starts the season on the Pup list. You know, maybe about the same chance that John Brooks has, you know, but the difference there is it's a whole lot harder to replace receiver production. You only have to start two on underdog. I will say Mike Williams, you know, obviously we think. think of him as a guy who's missed a ton of time in his career. You know, he's played 15 or more games in what, you know, five of the last six years.

Yeah, before the ACL, I was on a soapbox that people were too hard on him about missing game. Because people typically don't even, they just go by how they feel. That's what I've found with injuries in particular is that people don't actually look at the objective data that they're given. And they just go based on feel, which is fine. I guess it's football supposed to be fun. But if you're going just based on how a player made you feel, I mean, shoot. you didn't feel like Jalen Waddle was, listen, I'm talking directly to you,

Graham, because we drafted him on one of our teams that was, again, your three are supposed to get us to the Bahamas on vacation. Didn't work out. He was like, what, wide receiver 13 or something? Like,

he was the top receiver Jalen Wattle was. You just didn't feel like it. So, you know, whatever. It is what it is. That's the side of hand. Yeah, no, you're right. And, you know, if you go off field, you probably miss the Mike Williams 76 for, you know,

nearly 1,200 yards. and however many touchdowns. I think had eight or nine touchdowns that year a couple years ago. That's fine. But yeah, I mean, with Mike, man, it's tricky because, like, he's been a contested vertical threat his entire career.

Now he's coming off in ACL. He's never been one that's going to, you know, just absolutely crush you with route running. I'm kind of out. I've been out. I've got him, like, profiled similarly with Gabe Davis. I think Mike Williams ends up having a higher target share, but again, we're probably taking some zeros

to start the C. season because it seems like he's going to be legitimately behind for training camp. You know who's not going to be behind for training camp, Edwin? We're going to freaking wishcast it. It's Christian Watson and his hamstrings. He's apparently trying to get this figured out. You can speak way into the nerdy details about his specific hamstring issues. We all know the problems.

Death taxes and Christian Watson being out with a hamstring injury. Man, look, we know the talent. If you can give me Christian Watson on a 75% route share for 15, 16 games, he's going to blow out his ADP. I have him a little ahead of ADP. Edwin, is that right? Am I right to be a little cautiously optimistic here? No, no, you're 100% right.

So these groin injuries, they do really well, actually. The surgeries are pretty successful. You don't have a lot of guys that come back and have this issue again. Odell Beckham Jr. had this in 2019. Obviously, he had other issues, but he knows. never had a groin issue again. I'm trying to think of other players. There have been several players that have had. And maybe that's like a good thing that I can't even remember who they are. Is it a groin issue or a hamstring for Christian Watson? Ah, Christian Kirk in my head. Let's back.

Oh, there you go. I left Kirk off the list. We'll get, we'll get to Kirk. Tell me about Christian. There's a breakdown. You don't even have to go back. There's a Christian Kirk breakdown. Now, as far as Christian Watson goes, yes, this is a different issue. So I'm going to give a comparison that's going to give you a stomachache, it's probably going to give people butterflies. You know, some people might, you know, be angry, red hot anger, but at the end of this take, I'll give you a comparison. Christian Watson, his hamstrings, have been an issue since he was a rookie. It had been an issue since he was in North Dakota State.

They haven't gotten better. This new report, again, I hate to be the guy that is dousing, you know, raining on the parade, whatever. But I tweeted it this morning. Yes, they found some asymmetry. Yes, he spent millions of dollars or whatever it is to go to this. this random college that nobody's ever heard of so you could get his likes tested. Here's a bottom line, people.

The medical staff in Green Bay is pretty sharp. They have handheld dynamometers. If you don't know what that is, it's just a device that tests relative strength, PSI. So they knew if his, if Christian Watson's, if Christian Watson's hamstring was as asymmetrical as they claimed to be after he went to the state of the art facility, the medical staff in Grebeye knew that. The medical staff in Green Bay tried to address it. The medical staff in Green Bay is not, this is not news to them, right? What do you think they do? Sit around all day and Twitter their thumbs like, no, they try to solve these problems

because their jobs to a certain degree are also under scrutiny because it's their job to get these multimillion dollar players back on the field so that the organization can win. This wasn't like news. Now, is it good that he's going to address it? Yes. Maybe he wasn't bought in, right? Maybe he had, maybe until he saw the numbers at this independent place,

he didn't really believe what the staff was telling him. Maybe now he's going to train a little differently. Maybe now he's going to make adjustments here or there that they were trying to preach to him this entire time, right? There's that scenario that exists and that happens with athletes sometimes. They need to hear it from somebody else. A lot of times, that's a third party. I know that because I operate in that third party, right, like role sometimes.

They're athletes, they don't necessarily trust their medical staff or whatever. They come to me. A lot of times they end up telling them the same stuff. And they're like, oh, okay, right? Like that happens. So that's possible that's possible that Christian, Watson is going to come back and be as healthy as he can. Now, there's another scenario where this doesn't make a difference. There's a scenario where, again, it's chicken or egg. He's had

these hamstring injuries for a long time. Do the asymmetry cause hamstring injuries or the injuries caused by the asymmetry? We don't know, right? There's still so much lacking that we know. I think what I don't like to see is people saying, oh, it's a slam dunk. He's going to fix his hamstrings and it's going to be great. That's not necessarily the case. Like, you could do everything right and these soft tissue injuries will continue to crop up. And I'm not trying to say that's what's going to happen with Watson, but I think, you know, I know I'm saying all this, right? I'm saying all this knowing that at his ADP, and the last time I saw, I think was like in the 80s. Is that true? Yeah, yeah, he's in the 80s. I'm still in on Christian Watson. And here is the stomach turning

comparison that I'm going to give. This reminds me of Will Fuller. I know. I know where you're and Will Fuller was on track. And Will Fuller was supposed to be good in Miami. And Will Fuller, I don't know what happened. So I seems like there was some off-field stuff there going on the floor. Yeah, also that. Also that. No, it's a 100% fair comparison. They're very similar players in the way they win, vertical threats.

But yes, please. Continue. I just, that's what I want to say is. I know I'm sounding like the Debbie Downer. I'm just saying that this still isn't a slam dunk. I haven't looked at the trend to see if this is going to cause a spike in his ADP relative to the last few weeks. But I don't think that.

You still proceed with caution is what I'm saying. This is not a slam dunk, but I am saying if he's still in the 80s, like I'm going to take my chance on, you know, the old Scott Barrett, right? Like upside wins championships. If you can get a guy who's going to be a freaking top, what, what's the ceiling, Graham, would you say 10 to 12 wide receiver generally? I don't know if it's that high. I don't think it'll be that consistent, but like really strong wide receiver too with like huge spike week potential.

Huge spike weeks, exactly. Yeah. I'll take that in 80s. Yeah, I've got him at 71, so pretty healthfully above ADP. It's really twofold. One, I just think he's awesome. And if he's fully healthy, he's exactly what this offense needs to just take the lid off with Jane Reed and Luke Musgrave underneath, Dantavian Wicks underneath.

Like, Watson is, he's got a clear, like, role. Whereas, you know, I'm not entirely sure Jane Reed and Dantavine Wicks are going to be full-time players. The second thing is, like, Watson last year just wasn't healthy enough to play. He had, you know, he played nine games. last year, only six, he played with, you know, 70% or more of the routes. And in those games, like, he was a pretty strong wide receiver two, like high-end wide receiver three. And again, that was with him at less than 100%. That was with him playing with Jordan Love who hadn't fully broken out yet. Jordan Love was still kind of

struggling in the middle of last season. And then everything just kind of clicked. And they went on that run. Yeah, man, I think there's enough to be excited about Watson. Even if you're projecting some missed time, you know, maybe three or four games. I still think he's a relatively good upside bet right now. He's been steamed from like, you know, mid-90s into the 100s. But yeah, I'm in on Christian Watson. One final receiver I wanted to talk to you about rookie Ladd-McConkey. He's an undersized player, but you want to talk about a guy who can separate.

It's McConkey. Mainly played outside at Georgia, but I think he's going to play some slot. for the Chargers this year. He injured his back last season for the Georgia Bulldogs, have missed four games, was never really like 100% full-time player. Was that because of the back injury? And if so, like, is it something we should be concerned about going into this year? Yeah, I haven't been able to really find anything crazy on McConkey specifically. Like, there is a chance. That's why he wasn't totally a full-time player, but we know we know he didn't have any surgery or anything like that. Maybe it was just Georgian knowing that that's where their

bread was buttered and they're going to just give them rest, right, rest periods and let him chill. I know that he had, I'm pretty sure he had like a high ankle or something go on too at some point. So I honestly, I'm not concerned about Ladd-McConkie. My question for you is, is he going to be able to just straight up outplay and, and replace Michael Mayer? I mean, I think with McConkey, the question is just how much the chargers throw. I think that's my bigger concern with him then. It's like, you know, we've got him for a pretty solid like 22, 23% target share. But I think the charger is going to be pretty run heavy.

They're going to be pretty slow-paced. Yeah, McConkey, I've got him ranked solidly as a pretty back-end wide receiver three. Near that, Dandre Hopkins, Christian Watson, tier. I think for PPR, he could be a big. beast, you know, five, six. Hold on, Graham. Stop, stop the press. What's that?

I just, I was, I just committed a racist act. What's that? Oh, well, I confused Ladd-McConkie and Brock Bowers. I did it. I did it. That's why I said Michael Mayer, so you, uh, you ever the constant of professional, if you want to cut the second can, but, uh, I apologize. I apologize for, uh, confusing.

We're going to, no, we're going to get the PC police on you. Um, yeah, no, it's all good. Uh, I knew here you were talking about. But yeah, man, I'm in on McConkey, but bigger concern for me. I think he's a really good receiver. Going to be great for Herbert long term, buying him in Dynasty. Big concern for me this year is just how past heavy the chargers are going to be. Before we wrap up this injury pod, we're going to take a brief pause for these messages.

All right. Yeah, well, we're going to wrap it up with some tight end talk. T.J. Hawkinson, Mark Andrews, and Tyler Higby all coming back from pretty significant surgeries this off season. Let's first get started with T.J. Hawk. He had an ACL plus. He had some impact with other ligaments in his knee. The tricky thing with him, and just like with Tyler Higby,

is his surgery was really late. Late January. Man, what kind of timeline are we looking at with Hawkinson? Because luckily, you know, with Mike Williams, his ACL happened pretty early. Same with Jonathan Brooks. Same with Nick Chubb, even. Hockinson, though, he had the complete flip side.

Pop his ACL at the end of last season. The United Surgery late. what's the timeline man it's just like i mentioned before like the sooner that you bring these guys back the less likely are to be successful so even if that you know surgery january 29th let's say that the that they want to be totally reckless right let's say they want to be completely reckless and they want to bring them back at eight months he can do it he's at risk for hamstring injuries he's at risk for returning the ACL he's at risk for a ton of other stuff that just knees swelling, like it's just not going to be a good deal. Okay, so let's fast forward and let's say nine

months from January 29th. This is like a very similar situation to what Michael Gallup faced when he tore his ACL and he came back way too early, right? This is a situation where at best, we shouldn't, right? I'm framing this very specifically. At best, we shouldn't see T.J. Hawkinson until mid-October, late October. That would be the soonest that I would anticipate him coming back. And best ball especially, you just can't take all those zeros. It's just not something that I'm willing to do personally. And then when he does come back, you know, these tight ends and receivers, again, the best thing we can really compare him to is a wide receiver.

And so the best that we can really do is any 90% of what you expect from T.J. Hawkinson, like, it's probably going to be less than that, right? So whatever ceiling you project T.J. Hawkinson for in a healthy year, you're going to have to knock that off at least 10 to 20%. And that is now with, right, who's going to be starting, right? Sam Darnold. Is it going to be McCarthy by then? Who knows?

We don't really know quite yet. Jordan Addison's there. He's a decent little player, right? JJ just signed that massive extension. Shout out to him. So, you know, I don't know. T.J. Hawkins is just not really a guy that I'm personally taking any shots on. Not necessarily because he's not a good player.

I just don't think that the upside from a fantasy perspective is going to be there. Yeah. And the timeline that you're laying out is even made trickier. by the fact the Vikings have a buy in week six. So maybe week seven against Detroit, that would be October the 20th. Otherwise, they play on Thursday night, week eight on the 24th. I'm not sure they're going to want to bring him in on a short week. We could be looking at week nine.

And I'm with you, man. I've drafted very little Hawkinson about the only time I do, and this might sound like counterintuitive, but just hear me out is like, the only time I do is like if he slides way past ADP and I've already got Mark Andrews or Evan Ingram or Kincaid or Kincaid or Kelsey or McBride or LaPorta. And then you just have a maybe potential for like a back-in bully tight-end type of deal.

And Hawkinson's, you know, going at 1-34. His ADP has really, really started a slide-ed one. I mean, it was 125-ish. Now we're in the mid-130s. I've got him in the, you know, pretty much right on the cusp at 140. I'm going to probably end up moving them down even a little bit more after this conversation. Just, man, I mean, it's really tricky. Like he could be back by week nine, in which case you're taking half a season of zeros at

tight end and especially in best ball where I really ideally want to just have two tight ends. That is that is certainly not great. We have some better news though with Mark Andrews, right? Coming back from ankle surgery, he had a really, really brutal injury. However, he's at plenty of time to rehab. It seemed like if the Ravens like had a chance, you know, if they made it the Super Bowl and actually closed out the Chiefs, like there's like a back outside chance that Andrews could have played, I don't think they would have pushed him.

what's Andrew's timeline looking like? No, that's exactly. Pat Crane actually DM me. I think like the week after this injury happened and it was like Pat Crane's of course noted, loved Pat, noted degenerate. He was like, I think, I don't know what he was doing. He was trying to come up with some timelines.

And I told him, I think I literally said, if they make the AFC championship game, maybe if they make the Super Bowl, a little more likely. And that's exactly what you saw happen. I think 100% you're accurate that. Mark Andrews has had plenty of time to rehab. He's had plenty of offseason now to get the ankle right.

He's going to be perfect. A lot of people want comps for this. There aren't very many comps from the tight end position, but there are some players who have had similar injuries. And I think T.J. Hawkinson, actually, who we just talked about in 2019, actually had that specific injury. I'm relatively certain that's when it was. So Hawkinson came back that year in 2020,

and he actually, you know, he earned 101 targets. he had 723 yards. It was a respectable, respectable comeback. And obviously, T.J. Hawkinson is not the player that Mark Andrews is. So I don't know what you think from an offensive. Honestly, dude, I've been trying to figure out that offense for the last two years. I thought they were going to be hot last year. They obviously were good.

Don't get me wrong. I just think that the distribution of targets and yards and everything was just, I felt like it was so, it was difficult for me to predict. So I don't really know where you stand on that offense. I still want to take, I still want to take Mark Andrews. Don't get me wrong. But I just sort of question how, what is usage going to be? It's fair.

You know, with Zayflowers emerging, it probably takes away from like the apex ceiling of Andrews. But you take away the game. He got hurt end. He averaged basically the same amount of fantasy points per game as Kelsey Hawkinson and Leporta. They all scored relatively within the same range. Mandrews is one of the biggest values on my board right now. I've got him at 43 overall. his ADP's 51.

Mark Andrews should not be a fifth round pick. I mean, okay. If you're saying that, then I'm all in. Bro, period. He should not be a fifth round pick. I've got him head to Zay Flowers,

which is very contrarian. You know, and I should have known that because on Madden, I played with the Ravens and Mark Andrews was offensive player in the year. So I should have known that.

Yeah. No, no, there you go. Mark Andrews is catching 12 touchdowns again this year, going back to the moon. But yeah,

man, I mean, you know, he played in the championship game, only got two targets. whatever. He should be full go for the rest of the season. But like I said, man, if you just take away the game where you got heard that Bengals game, Week 11, you know, his scoring was right there with Leporta, Kelsey, and Hawk. I really think, you know, their tight end is really deep this

year, like the top 12 and then it just dies. But I have that top five like really close together. I think Leport is at the top of it just because he's, you know, coming off the best rookie season of all time for a tight end. Like that is worth something. They just lost Josh Reynolds, we could probably boost up his target share a little. But I think it's really close with him, Kelsey McBride, Andrews, and Kincaid. I've got Kincaid at five after that top four. But man, you know, Kincaid is pretty close. I just can't, I can't get there with Kincaid over Andrews because Andrews is such a beast.

All right, final tight end. George Kittle is coming back from a core muscle surgery. It wasn't anything that caused him to miss games. Last season he played in every single game, played all 20 for the Niners. including the postseason. However, he had the surgery this offseason. And Edwin, I'm not sure if you know when the surgery actually was, because I'm not sure.

But, you know, obviously anytime, you know, you hear George Kettle and, you know, injury, you know, obviously with his history, he's been dealing with so many nicks and bruises throughout the course of his career. He's continued to play and play at extremely high level. However, he is getting older and however, you know, Debo and Iyuk are going to get 50, 55% of the first three targets again. What's our, is there any risk with Kittle at any? ADP just based on injury right now.

No, there is. And the interesting thing is that I'm doing this off the top of my head. I'm relatively certain Kittle had this at the beginning of the year last year or two years ago. Sorry. And it obviously followed him. He finally decided to get the surgery. I'm not necessarily surprised. There is obviously some risk.

So that happens, right? But he's, you know, according to him, he's progressing his plan. He's on track to return by July, which would make sense. he continued to deal with this issue, like I said, for like a year plus, finally decided to get it done. Again, these surgeries tend to do really, really well. I wouldn't necessarily expect to have additional issues with Kittle because the reason that he's missed time, actually, over the last couple of years,

has been because of that groin. And so, yeah, you know, he's had the shoulder issue. He's had the groin issue now. So the thing is, like, tight ends are extremely, extremely risky in general. They get injured a lot. Just imagine being, they're basically a hybrid of an offensive lineman and a running back. So they get, they take on a lot of hits. They take on a lot of exposures.

So for them to be injured is it happens, right? The thing that I can never figure out about George Kittle and I feel like it's, you never know when the George Kittle game's coming. I'm like, he's a quintessential best ball guy because it's like, oh, I dropped to George Kittle again, hell, the 3.7 points again, 5.4 points again. And like, holy shit, 27 points of this week from George Kittle. but you never, I never know when they're coming. So I just, honestly, I've just got George Kittle fatigue.

I don't know where you're out with that. Yeah, Kittle is one guy I've been pretty much out on. And that, that's weird because I've been a heavy Kittal drafter throughout the years. But right now I'm kind of out in the 14 games that he played with Debo, IYuk, and McCaffrey, all healthy. I yuk missed a game because of concussion. Debo missed three games with a shoulder injury. If you take away those games, Kittle only average. nine and a half points per game in those 14 games, man.

And Joku was, and yeah, he was behind in Joku. He was behind Evan Ingram by XFP in those games. So that's just like looking at Kittles' role in those games, his targets, where they came, were they in the end zone, blah, blah, blah, how many air yards, eight and a half XFP per game. He was the tight in 17 in those 14 games. So it's something I think maybe Shanahan's got to fix, honestly, because George Kittles is just that damn good.

He should be getting the ball a lot more. I realize there's only one ball and, you know, it's got to go to Iyke. It's got to go to Debo. It's got to go to McCaffrey. But, you know, it does seem like if there's one blind spot in this Niners offense and it was kind of apparent during the Super Bowl, it's, it's, Kittl is just a ghost at times. And it's, I think it's just mainly because Debo and Iyuk are awesome. And Kittle does so much like you were outlining between his blocking in the past, you know, in the run game. And, you know, sometimes in the past game is a chipper.

You know, he's just such a, he really is the only true tight end left. like Kelsey's a receiver. You know, managers is becoming more of a slot receiver. Same with Hawkinson. You know, Kittle is really the last true guy who plays every snap and blocks and does all the traditional in-line stuff. Well, then you got to get the Kyle Usecheck too. Yeah.

You got to squeeze those in there when they're less. Yeah, use check had a nice first down early in that game. It was actually a good play design. But, yeah, man, I've been kind of out on Kittle, not necessarily because of this core muscle injury, just mainly because I yuk and Debo. dogs unless Debo gets traded, which would be massive for Kittle. Yo, I was going to ask you about that. Sorry, I don't want to get off track there.

But like, I think Dolan put this in the Discord. It's kind of like a de facto, we're not going to pay Debo, right? Or am I wrong? So Debo got the extension and then he showed up to training camp out of shape two years ago and wasn't totally himself last season. Then last year he came back and he was like, I mean, I think maybe the best version of himself that he's ever been. I think he's more likely to get traded than Iyuk. You know, Iyuk's younger, still ascending.

I think Iyuk still has some room to grow. I mean, he was so good, like one of the best separators in the NFL last year. I think if anybody gets to trade for him. Oh, God. That would be sick, actually. That would be really sick. No, man, there's 16 teams that would just line up, absolutely line up for Iyuk. Yeah, just to round out this.

discussion, you know, last year, like I said, in those games where Debo and Iuke were healthy, you know, Kittle just was not as productive than the two games that Debo missed fully last year, had one. Kittl put up an average of 113 yards per game. It might be kind of good. Might be kind of good for inside end. Yeah. So, you know, again, I don't like to get into, you know, we'll see type thing. Maybe the Niners do end up moving Iuke or Debo. I think what's most highly likely is they just run it back for one more year and then make that call. But all that being said, man, if it's the same four back, I think Kittles, unfortunately, the odd man. Now, all right, one final injury note I wanted to go through with you today, Edwin. Thank you so much for your time,

was Tyler Higby. Another late ACL, just like TG Hawkinson, even later, though, because he had to wait six weeks, correct me from wrong, because the MCL issue he had, he's 30. he's never been a separator in the middle of the field. They just signed Colby Parkinson, man. I don't know if you saw Colby Parkinson got as much guaranteed money as Hunter Henry did in his extension. So big money from the Rams on Parkinson. Higby had surgery late February ACL plus MCL. I mean, this is really only important for best ball, Edwin,

so I'm really just picking your brain for this reason. but, you know, what Higbee's early, what's the earliest Higbee can return, I guess is my first question. Well, first of all, I won't handle and tolerate any disrespect for Seattle Seahawks legend, Colby Parkinson, who put up favorable numbers, Graham. In fact, in the year of our Lord 2022, he actually, he started two games and he saw 34 targets for the season, 25 yards. So I put some respect on his name is all I'm saying. Hey, I like Colby Parkinson late, man, especially if you take Stafford.

Absolutely. No, actually I saw some really interesting, I listened to some, I think it was Nate Tice on the Yahoo pod with Harmon. They were actually talking about how the Rams are using a lot more duo this year. And so how that sort of changed their blocking scheme. And it was actually super interesting stuff. So obviously the tide is important when you're in the run game. It was super important, especially for your team like the Rams. But anyway, yeah, man, the soon as that we could see Tyler, maybe, listen, I don't think that he should be back until like December. Like this is not a guy that you want to draft.

and I think he's like, very few guys are like just fades, just hard fades. I think Tyler Hig was just a hard fade. Honestly, there's probably not a lot to really to add to that. Yeah, he's not being drafted. I really just brought it up for, you know, what the Rams offense is going to look like. And if you think it's December, then, man, I mean, he might not play at all this year. They might not even bring him back, especially at his age. Higbee was as old as it is, man.

But, yeah, they brought in Parkinson who's, you know, probably not going to anything more than like 50 to 60 targets, but there's a little bit of, you know, spike week potential on this offense. Higby will be 31, 32 at the end of the year. His birthday's on New Year's Day. Edwin, this was a fantastic, man. Really appreciate your time.

You can follow the man himself at FB injury doc. Edwin has his excellent injury guide coming out with profiles and tears and basically an entire injury history for players. coming out on fantasy points.com this summer. So make sure you look for that, follow him and his podcast, head up his podcast, the Injury Prome podcast. Edwin, by the way, if you search Injury Podcast and Fantasy Football on Apple, your podcast is the first one that comes up.

So there you go. Yeah, a round of applause. Yeah, well done, dude. Until next time, I'm Graham. That's Edwin. Peace out. What? What?

Why are you shaking here, Ed? You're welcome.