Fantasy Football Daily - NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football MUST START or Sit!

Episode Date: September 11, 2026

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Link your Triangle Rewards and Tim's Rewards accounts to earn twice with every Tim's run. Terms and conditions apply. Visit tim Hordons.ca. slash triangle for details. Week one start, sit on Fantasy Football Daily here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. I am your host, Brett Whitefield, joined by the Always Grumpy, Scott Barrett. Scott, how are you today?

I'm doing good. What are you talking about grumpy? Bro, did you see the comments on our last video? One guy said I'm like a sassy barista. The other guy is like, no, he's just from New York, New Jersey. jersey and he's a ball buster just legit disdain for the topic you don't like the idea or something no i'm just i'm just ball busting you right now that's just who you are i get it you know i have takes you crap on them you get proven wrong it's just the cycle we live in so no no worries but guys we're

excited week one is here obviously we've watched one game by the time you're listening to this two games will have been but played and we're ready to drop start sit i want to shout out joe dolin who is doing the start sit this year. Yeah, this is this is, I think Scott and I had the same reaction we read it. It's like start sit got even better and it's great. Joe did a really good job week one. Hopefully he keeps that same energy through the whole season. How did you feel about this Scott?

I thought it was excellent. I thought it was a perfect start sit column. I remember like a number of years ago, I had a friend who barely ever played fantasy football. I used to write the starts sit column and they were like, I hate it. I just, all I want is to just scroll down. and see the names of my players

and know whether or not to start or sit them and you wrote like 15 paragraphs, this is awful. And this is exactly what they wanted. This is what the people want, where you can just scroll down, see your player's name, read two quick sentences. You get the most important points

and, of course, recommendations based on our projections. This is a free article. So make sure you read it every week. Before we dive in, I want to dive into the week one starts it and get rolling. Before we do, let's remember if you're a returning subscriber, you already know what makes this the best fantasy football channel on the planet. So hit the like button,

but most of you watching right now are not subscribers. And I wanna tell you, this is the best fantasy football YouTube channel you will find. We will help you win leagues from week one all the way through week 17 or 18, depending on when your championship is. So please hit the subscribe button, turn notifications on so you don't miss an upload from myself or Scott.

All right, dude. Let's start with quarterbacks. Let's do it. And yeah, this is a fun list. Fun list, Jackson, Dart, Jared Goff, Tyler Shuck. And on the sit side, we have Mahomes, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nicks. A lot of these guys, you know, their ADPs were as QB2s. And on the flip side, we're sitting some of the guys that were drafted to be your starter. So let's start with Jackson, Darts.

Scott, this is your boy. We have to talk about this guy every day because it's officially giant season now. So go ahead. Yeah, so it says QB6 finish on the screen. That's his current projection at our site. He's the overall QB6 projected for 19.9 fantasy points. And I don't know if you remember, but Chris was never really as bullish on Jackson Dart as I was. But clearly he is this week.

Dallas's defense was the worst in the league against quarterbacks. And it was like twice as bad by schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed as any other defense last year. And it's just a player you guys all know I'm very high on. He just had a top five rookie quarterback season ever by fantasy points per start. If you exclude the Minnesota game, he would have outscored Josh Allen. So, yeah, I'd love to see Chris just as bullish on one of my guys as I am. Yeah, from an X's and O standpoint, Dallas is going to play a lot of cover three. It's just what they do.

And Jackson Dart has kind of shredded cover three and just single high coverages in general to use the data suite too you can go to the player cards the player matchup tool you can see all this information here where dart wins versus where dallas wins i don't know if you're paying attention to home but that's advantage jackson dart a lot more a lot more wins than losses there so um you know christian parker is is a nice defensive coordinator and and they've rebuilt this this defensive squad on the dallas side but i just think week one dart is still going to have quite the edge here so i agree with this one for sure Yeah, and then next two are in the same game.

And it's just, yeah, 50 point over under in this game. Tyler Shuck, to me, based on my rankings was what, a mid-range QB-2, low-end QB-2. This week, he's a fringe QB-1. Jared Gough elevate him to mid-range QB-1. It's a game that's at home, indoors, with a 50-point over-under. Goff also crush his cover four, which the Saints run at a top 10. rate over the last four years he's a here's a crazy stat for you uh brett over the last four years jared goff averages 21.3 fantasy points per game at home 15.4 fantasy points per game on the road

so that's basically the difference of him being the qb3 and the qb 24 so um wow you know you always want to play quarterbacks at home but for some guys it matters more than others ben rothusberger famously as well but certainly Jared Goff and then yeah Tyler Shuck you know he's a touchdown underdog the Lions I mean you could talk about the Lions secondary they're down safeties Brian Branch Kirby Joseph and it's also a good schematic matchup Tyler Shuck was excellent against man coverage last year which we know the Lions like to play at a top three rate yeah I'm actually I don't want to just flat out disagree with this since we put so much Simon to writing this up, but I don't think I'm comfortable starting Tyler Shuck this week

at all, to be quite frank. Okay. You know, this is in Detroit. This is people talk about the questions of the secondary. They didn't anticipate having Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph to start the season. Like they planned for this. They brought in free age acquisitions and draft picks to, you know, start the season at safety. They brought in Chuck Clark, who's been a like a seven-year starter at safety in the league.

They brought in or they brought back Avanti Maddox, who was actually better than Kirby Joseph on the field last year. So like, I don't know if that's just missing those two guys when they've been planning for it the entire offseason is enough for me to think this is going to be a good situation for Tyler Shuck. What the lines do have is a healthy Aleem McNeil. They do have a healthy Aiden Hutchinson, a healthy Derek Moore, a healthy DJ Reid who missed, you know, like nine games last year and played injured in a handful more. So like I'm actually pretty confident Detroit's defense kind of Molliwops New Orleans in this game. I also think there's a lot of fake hopium with New Orleans right now where it's like they went on this hot streak to end the season. They finished four and three. But look at the teams they played.

They still lost two games to Atlanta who sucked in that in that stretch, this stretch of games where everyone got really excited about Tyler Shuck and the team. But they four and three down the stretch against the seven worst teams in the league arguably. So yeah, hey, you know what? So if you're wrong here and Tyler Shutt goes off, YouTube chat, please clown on bread for being the world's biggest Lions Homer. But yeah, looking at the projections, when I saw this and wrote this in the show sheet last night, he was QB 13.

Now he's QB 16. So it looks like Chris might have dropped him a little bit. There's still some surprising names like Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix. I'd start over him. But yeah, Lessa, Fringe, QB1, now just a high-end QB2. Boom. There we go. Chris, Chris settled this without me having to settle it. All right.

I like that. Just talking about the guys we're sitting here. Yeah. For just a brief second. Yeah. Patrick Mahomes coming off of a devastating injury plus surgery, probably not going to be running a lot. It's up against a really tough Denver defense. Caleb Williams, you know, it's not a fantasy football daily with Brett and Scott if we're not,

you know, criticizing Caleb Williams. but I think this is a sneaky bad matchup for him. Carolina's defense is really underrated last year. It was one of the top five toughest defenses by schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed. Also an interesting note from Nick Spanola, one of our writers. So we know that Ben Johnson likes to deploy

under center play action at the league's highest rate. But Carolina's defensive coordinator far away best in the league last year at defending under center play action so i thought that was an interesting note but yeah just uh i would lower your expectations for caleb williams this week and then bow nix i was shocked at how low chris was on him with the projections just qb 20 i'm guessing that's that's the matchup what do you think bret yeah i i feel like chris i i don't know I've disagreed to him on the Denver passing offense all offseason, so maybe it's just an extension of that.

Kansas City, I don't know. I honestly, I don't have a good feel for why Chris is so low on him, but I think I like Bo Nix in this matchup, to be honest with you, their secondary, Kansas City secondary had to get completely rebuilt in the off season. I know we really like Monsour Delane as a prospect, but like, is he going to be Trent McDuffie day one? No, I don't think so. Kansas City had a ton of pass rush issues too last year.

year and I don't think that's changing. So I do think Bo Nick should be relatively fine in this game. Yeah. Well, for the folks who don't know, we have our big projections meeting on Fridays generally where we debate and we hammer things out. So we'll certainly have to push Chris on this one on Friday. Yep. Agree. All right. Let's move over to the running backs. We have three starts and three sits for you. Travis ETS against Detroit, Breeze Hall against Tennessee. and David Montgomery against Buffalo are the starts. Then the flip side you got John Brooks is a sit, Jeremiah Love,

Marshawn Lloyd. I definitely get the love sit. Not sure about the other two, but let's talk, let's talk Travis E.TN. Are we going with Achan? We've been over this. Travis Etienne.

It'd be like if, if Drew Locke pronounced his last name Mahomes. Like, what is this stolen about? Why are you stealing Devon A. Chan's last name? Yeah. If he finishes, as if he finished his top 15 in fantasy points per game this year, I'll put some respect on his name.

I'll call him whatever he wants me to call him. Until that happens, he's Travis Etienne. But he is a start this week. He's a player I largely faded all offseason. But I would start him this week. Alvin Kamara, it looks like he's going to play week one. You know, that was in jeopardy. But, you know, certainly he's going to be more limited than he typically is,

which means more work for Etienne in a game with a 50 point over under and this is going to be a common theme today is start all your lions start all your saints start all your bangles start all your buccaneers we want to be targeting those 50 point over under games what is the saints implied point total of that 50 because I think this is going to be a blowout I think it could be the lion scoring 35 of these points and the saints scoring 15 so like he'd be a sit to me I don't I don't know I don't like this is another one I don't agree with right Well, they have a 21.25 point implied point total, which if I remember correctly, it's like 25% higher than their average last year, their average points scored per games. So yeah, like Vegas

is projecting a blowout. They're projecting the lines to win by seven points. But one interesting wrinkle about this offense is it's a Kellyn Moore offense that leaves the league and pace of play every single year. And so have to imagine that's good. Have to imagine it's a, it's a a pass-heavy affair with a lot of targets for at TN. Because you're seven-point underdogs, you're really forced to speed up the pace of play and lean pass-heavy. And so, yeah,

I think this is going to be a really high-scoring affair. But, yeah, certainly the Lions are going to win this one. All right, Breece Hall, RB 17. You take this one. The note is Brett loves the matchup. I love the matchup and I love the opportunity. But, yeah, Tennessee's run defense, you know, I've been saying it all off since they traded away their best run stopper and Tevandre

sweat. Robert Sala is a, he prioritizes a way more attacking style defense. So less gap sound stuff. They're not as good against the run, but he's going to get after you and, you know, get creases, find edges to rush the quarterback. And so I just not, Robert Sala defenses typically aren't great in that run past transition. So a lot of play action stuff usually gets the best of them. Even think back to the, the Robert Sala 49ers. They got absolutely bodied by the Philadelphia Eagles multiple times, the Detroit line. So, like, I don't know, I'm not, I'm not super, I love Robert Sala as a defensive play caller, just not with his run defense, especially after they traded away their premier run-stopping nose tackle.

So I think Brees Hall should have some space in this game. And it should be relatively close game, too. So I think the, you know, the Jets will be able to stick with the run for the entirety of the game. Breece Hall is also a weapon in the past game. So love the matchup. you know we don't really have data on tennessee as far as like run run splits man zone stuff but i i don't really care i think i think hall is good at both of them so it doesn't really matter to me yeah the jets are only 1.5 point underdogs this week i feel like most weeks

6 or 7 point dogs so yeah yeah game script a little bit better for hall i'm picking the jets to win by the way for what it's worth so nice okay yeah there's a bet for you got to put that in the in season uh bet package. We've got to flag this episode. New from Nespresso. Blend wellness into your coffee routine with a coffee plus range infused with functional benefits. Choose the coffee you love with added B vitamins.

Like coffee plus B12 to help support immune function and coffee plus B6 to keep your day moving. Or go with the flow and choose ginseng delight. Our new double espresso with ginseng extract. Whatever lies ahead, don't change your morning. Let your morning change you.

Discover Coffee Plus on espresso.com. From morning hockey with a cup of coffee to Timbits and road trips, Tim's and Canadian Tire have always gone together. Now it's official. You can now earn Canadian Tire money at Tim's. Link your Triangle Rewards and Tim's Rewards accounts to earn twice with every Tim's run. Terms and conditions apply. Visit timhordens.ca.

For details. Where some see heroes and others see egos. Bloomberg sees the era of billionaire athletes. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. Learn more at Bloomberg.com. David Montgomery, yeah, so I just put him in here because I really wanted to pick your brain on something. But to me, you're starting him because he was an Exodia. But I wanted to know if you had any thoughts on the matchup, because historically, Buffalo was one of the best defense.

to target on the ground. And it was like an intentional, schematic thing that Sean McDermott did, where every year he had the best defense by at shutting down the deep ball and the worst defense at stopping the running game. And it's intentional. It's like we'd rather,

we'd rather you just rack up those short carries and not give up explosives. But with this new defensive coordinator, do you expect that to change? I'm sure some of it was also personnel related. Did he make any major improvements this, this offseason. What do you think about that? Yeah, great question. So Jim Leonard comes in to be the D-Coronator. It's a totally different mindset. They're going from an even front that lived in

nickel and dime cover. I think the bills have led the NFL in dime packages like the last three years under Sean McDermott. And that's definitely going to change. And that's why you see that really stark run defense split between the past defense is just they literally don't care. It's like, cool, we'll give you five on the ground, but we're taking away all your intermediate and deep passing So that's definitely changing. Jim Leonard's a way more aggressive play caller on defense, but he's also like the front is going to be more heavy odd front. You're going to have a lot of guys two-gapping and playing gap and a half type assignments.

Big Dion Walker, the nose tackles like 370 pounds. T.J. Sanders going to work in as a four technique. So it is a very much a new look, Bill's defense. And so I would expect them, I would expect their priority. This usually happens with new coaching is like, worse we're stopping the run you have to earn the right to rush the passer and that's probably going to be their mantra doesn't mean it will work out though it doesn't mean they're all you know magically going to be at stopping the run but i definitely think the emphasis will be to stop the run

i think you'll see them playing more base packages and being aggressive with the run fits yeah well even if it was a tough matchup i would be starting david montgomery this week because he was an exodia but in exodia who i hopefully you drafted as like a bench player to start because really you drafted him for his second half of the season upside i would be playing it conservatively with jonathan brooks i mean he has not played football uh in a really long time like a real regular season game of football um and so i i think he he doesn't do much in the month of september i think it takes him a while to get fully up to speed to earn the uh the uh coaches trust um and again it's it's for what he's going to do in the second half of the season um

But week one, yeah, I would rather start someone else almost certainly. Are who we sitting at running back, Scott? Yeah, Jonathan Brooks. Oh, sorry, who's the next one? The next one would be Jeremiah Love. I mean, this one's easy. It's, you know, he's, even if he suits up this week, he's not going to be at 100% full effectiveness.

So I think we see him a little bit more limited. It's also just, you know, the Arizona Cardinals extremely low 19 point implied total they're 9.5 point underdogs there's just not really a whole lot to like here and yeah again another player I'm more bullish on in the second half of the season but I am anticipating a slow start surprised the Nazi ashen gentie on here kind of going I mean you could throw him on here too yeah certainly okay Marshaun Lloyd the last one this one was a little surprising not because I disagree well I tried to add more surprising names but um Yeah, this is one that Chris is a lot lower on Marshawn Lloyd than it seems like the consensus around the industry.

But Ryan Heath agrees with him. He thinks Marshaun Lloyd is going to get scripted out of this game, doesn't trust that he is going to get the passing down work. And it is a tough matchup against the Vikings, or is it? What do you think, Brett? The Vikings are like kind of a tough one to figure out because the way they play defense, that aggressive Brian Flores, the first. flow style where they're mugging the A gaps constantly. So on paper, it looks like it's a hard team to run against. But the way they play, it's so aggressive in nature that if you get a crease,

you can rip off a ton of explosives against them. And I think traditionally, like the lines of love playing the Vikings because they just rack up explosives last year that did not go so well for the line. So it's going to sound stupid. But if the interior of Green Bay's offensive line can hold up, I think it's a good matchup. If they get beat up with that double mug, A-GAP look, I think it's going to be a quiet day for Marshawn Lloyd. Yeah.

All right, let's hit some wide receivers. Let's do it. We have the starts here, a lot of starts. Ladd-McConkie, Quinton-Johnston, Malik Neighbors, Luther Burden, Jameson, and Josh Downs, with the Sitz being Marvin Harrison, Harrison, Jr., Alec Pierce, DJ Moore, Brian Thomas Jr., Casey Conception. And what I like about the list here is there's a lot of like, you know, the same team guys, right? So you have Alec Pierce on the SIP, but you get Josh Downs on the start.

You know, what was the other one? There's another one here. Brian Thomas Jr. Parker, Washington. We didn't list Parker Washington is a start, but he has a start, right? Scott. Yeah. Exodia player. All right, let's start with Lab McConkey.

And Quinn Johnson. We're saying start both. This is interesting. It's really simple, Brett. So the lions, you know, we were talking about lions and saints. It's the Chargers who have the highest implied point total on the week, 28.5 points. And it's just the worst secondary in football by a landslide. Am I wrong?

I don't know. I didn't rank them 1 through 32, but I'm sure they're bad. Let's just say they're bad. Very bad, yeah. Right. So I would be starting all of my Los Angeles Chargers pass catchers. You know, certainly possible. It's just a Marion Hampton game and they just lean on the run,

but still just like the matchup. I really think this is like the worst cornerback room in the NFL, the second worst safety room in the NFL. And it's just, it's just a really winnable matchup for both of these guys. So I think both are starts. And I, yeah, to me, Ladd-McConkey is a low-end wide receiver one and QJ is probably a fringe wide receiver two. So you've come full circle.

You're now team Lad ahead of QJ. Oh yeah, we've been over this. Yeah, I'm just, but not everyone watches every video. Yeah, brought me back in the the fake the fake quote from Greg Rosenthal. I love it. Love that we're hanging her hat on that. It's not fake. What are you talking about?

It's fake in that it was reported a year after the fact and QJ also dealt with injuries all last year. It's a complete fake analysis is what I'm saying. Yeah, I disagree. Okay. How you haven't made a compelling argument against it. The dude had one of the best second half. rookie seasons ever. It's actually literally the best ever, second half of a rookie season by a wide receiver by yards per game. Better than OBJ, better than Puka Nakua, Amunras, St. Brown,

Chamar Chase, that's really hard to do. Last year, he sucked ass. He was awful. I needed just an excuse for that because I think he's a way more talented player than what we saw last year. Greg Rosenthal comes out, says, yeah, you had this injury in August. They knew about it. They knew wouldn't be anywhere near 100% all year. Some guys play better with through injuries than others. It makes sense. Maybe QJ plays through it a little bit better because guess what? He has no ass. He can't separate. Whereas Ladd McConkey, an extreme ass god. I think it might make sense that an injury kind of holds him back. QJ has one of the highest route win rates in the NFL the last years. If you, he does, first of all, he doesn't. He does the worst ass over the last three years.

And then his win rate is not terrible if you control for injuries. Oh, Oh, if you control for what? Injuries. Oh, it's not, it's not Ladd-McConkey versus man levels of elite.

What does Ladd do better than QJ? Break that down for me. He is a route running God, Tray. If you could pull up my video of Ladd-McConkey's route running, dude, he gets open at Will. He was sick in college. on a per route basis QJ he's like a a yak guy who can't separate in my mind I just told you he can separate his win rate is extraordinarily good it's like top 20 in the

NFL the last two years pull it up pull up data suite 2.0 we can answer these questions you telling me or try to pull it up tray pull it up receiving advanced receiving or scroll down receiving separation by alignment whoops and then um receiving separation by alignment any of those and do the last two years did the last three three years i didn't say last two last three but anyways i'm looking at right now twenty twenty five quentin johnson's 19th and win rate and that's not curving for injuries by the way and then yeah he's top he's top 20 the last two seasons i'm looking at at it right now there's no way okay well see yeah he's literally this out this isn't

this is entertaining this is entertaining because you're taking an l right now it's very entertaining so that's why we're gonna take it out well now you're making me question our data hold on let's see why are you questioning the day so he's 20 he's 25th in separation win rate of 103 wide receivers 15.1 or yeah 15.5 or yeah 50 15.1% he's in between DeMarcus Robinson and Jalen McMillan. This makes me think this isn't a great stat, at least in comparison to ass, which we've tested and no is extremely predictive. Yeah, but I also know how to like put context on ass.

Yeah. And by ass, he's bottom 15. Because of a couple games where he played through injury, by the way. And no, I'll explain what it means because you don't even know what it means. So ass, the separation score is a is a weighted scale based on quality of win. So what you're saying, so guys that get like plus twos and plus threes in the scoring system, they rank higher in ass than guys who a win rate is just any type, anything we deem a win. And so if you get pressed into oblivion off the line of scrimmage, that you're catching a minus two more than likely that's going to dramatically crush your ass score, but your win rate could still

overall be very good. You look at games he was injured, his ass was terrible. You look at games he wasn't, his ass is pretty good. This just, it doesn't even matter though, because the role he plays doesn't require him to have plus two and plus three type of wins that's not what he does. Lab McConkey ranks six in separation win rate as a rookie. QJ does not have that upside in his range of outcomes. But yeah, it doesn't matter. How so? You can say that, but why doesn't he? He's just not as talented. Says who? Says every, every Chargers insider beat, right, reporter says they definitely know what they're looking at college says who they were when healthy but you're

starting both this week so there's that i know i just i want to fight this narrative that lad just automatically better than q j i think it's bull it's bull all right well and you've never seen either than play with mike macdainiel by the way that's the other funny thing so we're yeah mike macdal comps q j to and andre johnson and julio jones which is which is crazy yeah it is crazy. All right, Malik neighbors next up on the list. We got to talk about the Giants again. Here we go. Yeah, I was surprised that Chris, who's typically a little conservative when it comes to injuries, is not have Malik neighbors as a sit. His first game back, you know, let's not forget, like week one was considered in jeopardy, maybe even a long shot just a few months ago.

But we have a wide receiver 15. Part of that is the matchup. Dallas, like I said, really bad against quarterbacks, really bad against wide receivers last year as well. So I don't know. I kind of was anticipating sitting him, but certainly having him wide receiver 15 and then bake in some wiggle room. Yeah, I guess you're starting Malik neighbors this week. Yeah, I think Chris, I haven't talked to him, but I'm assuming it's just like a pie situation. Like, yeah, if neighbors plays, where else do the targets go? Like we don't really have a strong opinion on that. And so, where I'm a little skittish on neighbors, just because the injury, I think it will be a slow start for him. I have to just default to Chris.

Chris's projections are the best. So let's ride. Let's do it. Yeah, we had the most accurate DFS projections in the industry last year, DFS projection, a little tougher than just regular fantasy football. The other one is another exodia, Luther Burden. This is a player you're going to hear Ryan Heath speak glowingly of in advanced matchups. So he was awesome against cover three last year.

He had a team high 3.76 yards per route run. Only Puka Nakua was higher against cover three. It's Luther Burden's best coverage shell. It's where over a third of his targets came from. And Carolina, over the last two years, plays cover three at the league's second highest rate. So even though I'm a little bit more pessimistic on Caleb Williams and the Bears this week, I think Luther Burden is the exception.

Yeah, I get the coverage shell thing. I'm a little more hesitant. For one, we put Caleb Williams on the sit list, right? Yeah. For two, the way the Carolina Panthers play cover three is not like the other teams in the NFL. Izzyra I, Jira Iverro is a, I would like to call him a mad scientist. They do all of these disguise looks. They actually, I'm pretty sure they led the NFL in disguise coverages last year.

Yeah, but they have like the worst pass rate over expectation over the last two years. So what? They just like. what does that mean? They're not pressuring quarterbacks. Oh, right. I mean, good. Well, the defense in 2024 was like historically bad.

They took a massive step forward last year. This year they added a top three linebacker in the league in Devin Lloyd. They added Jalen Phillips to be their new premier pass rusher. They drafted the kid from Texas Tech to be their new nose tackle. Derek Brown is back healthy. So like I do think the D-Line's in a much better position than they've been. I wouldn't say their pressure rate is still amazing. But the thing with disguising coverages and creating these SIM pressures is even when you're not pressuring the quarterback,

you're creating the illusion that you are or that the clock is ticking. And then with the disguise coverage on the back end, you're forcing them to hold the ball a half beat longer. And just, you know, ball comes out late. It's just there's a lot of issues. So I just, I get that Luther Burns been good against cover three. This just isn't a typical cover three. It's not, it's not like a, you know, the Dallas Cowboys play a ton of cover three. and it's pretty straightforward, right?

This is not that type of shell. So just wanted to caveat that a little bit. Yeah. New from Nespresso. Blend wellness into your coffee routine with a coffee plus range infused with functional benefits. Choose the coffee you love with added B vitamins, like coffee plus B12 to help support immune function,

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You're richer than you think. All right, let's move on. Jamo. Jameson. It's your boy. It's your team. Yeah. doesn't need a ton of analysis.

We've already talked about the Lions Saints game. It's the huge over-under. Is it the biggest over-under of the week, Scott, 50-and-a-half? There's one other game in the 50s, I think. Chargers, Cardinals, maybe. Either way, I mean, I think it's, I think the over-under is true. I think it's going to be a ton of points scored. I think the Lions win and a blowout.

So, you know, we've seen games like this. The Lions are also a really interesting team because they don't take their foot off the gas pedal. they're perfectly comfortable beating teams by 30 points. So even so like you don't have to worry about that in this game. If it does start to become a blowout, they're going to keep throwing the football. And I think that's good for JMO. I think the Saints secondary probably overperformed last year. And maybe that's a coaching thing.

Brandon's Daly back in the dec Coordinator chair is excellent. Not a good head coach. Fake Sharp as a head coach. As a de coordinator, he's had a lot of success in the league. And I think this defense taking a big step forward last year was a big part of that. Koolade McKinstree, a young, you know, know press man corner that can get it done i like quincy riley i like jonas sancher i think the seconders really come together nicely even though they lost alante taylor to the titans so um but that said

i think the i think the lions just run these guys off the field yeah again uh james and williams much better against single high coverage uh it's target per route run drums from like wide receiver 70 to wide receiver 26 going from too high to single high should see a lot of that with the So it's another little cherry on top that you're only going to get with fantasy points data. Yeah. By the way, DS2, if you haven't heard, it's out. You know, go to fantasy points data.com. So you see on the screen right here too. So yeah, everything you see on the screen is is DS2, Data Suite 2. If you use code DS2 when you're checking out, you get 15% off. I think that's pretty special. Yeah. That's worth doing.

It's already underpriced, right? And so you're getting in for another 15% off. It's ridiculous. but we we love you guys we're for the people so that's right all right next one Josh downs yeah this one's easy hey you've heard me hype up Josh Downs quite a bit um I just think he's really good I think he's going to finally get a full-time workload he's always smashed whenever he gets a full-time workload even when his quarterbacks are literal grandfathers um it's also I think he gets a little bit more work this week he has Alec Pierce I don't believe is fully 100% healthy And he goes up against Jesse Minter, who loves his too high coverage. The Chargers, top three, in their rate of too high coverage last year.

Over the last two years, only two wide receivers have a higher target per route run against two high coverage than Josh Downs. Those wide receivers are Pookinakua and Amun Ross St. Brown. What does that mean? It's an ideal schematic matchup. Should get a lot of targets. So Chris Wecht has him wide receiver 48. That means he's a six. it, but I am going to pull my IKB card on Chris Wecht and say, I know ball.

And I'm going to start him as a high end wide receiver four, fringe wide receiver three. So I think he's, you know, hopefully because no buys and everyone's on your team is fully healthy. You actually don't need to start him, but he's certainly viable as a what the heck flex play. I love that. Yeah, Chargers gave up like 17. 1700 yards last year in two high coverages, like on short, this is like short throw. I pulled the stat yesterday.

I forgot to write it down. It's like on throw zero to nine yards. They gave up like the third most yards in the league. So Josh Down's a low A dot type of player. He's the exact type of player that can blow up a Jesse Minter defense. And they're going to need them to if this game's going to be competitive. So, all right. The sits.

Let's, we just talked Josh down. So let's just go right into Alec Pierce. It's not waste any time. Yeah. I just don't think he's fully healthy. Even if he does get this expanded role or he's not just a deep threat, I don't know. I don't think it happens week one. So I'm out on Alec Pierce.

Yeah. Yeah, same thing. Yeah, I agree. Also, like, you know, good luck throwing deep on a Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens defense that's going to sit in too high and get after the quarterback. And that's kind of Alec Pierce's game. So don't love the matchup schematically for him, even if he was healthy. Marvin Harrison, Jr. We're projecting for 9.3 points and he is a Sith. Tell us about him, Scott.

Well, technically he's a start. He's Chris's wide receiver 35. Although maybe that's a lot lower than where you drafted him. But I would have him even lower than that. I'd have him behind Josh Downs. For one thing, it's an 18.5 point implied total. For another thing, I just, I don't think he's good. I don't like him. I think Michael Wilson might probably will outscore him. And so I need him to prove me wrong before I feel comfortable starting him. Sorry. I don't think he's good. Caught me off guard.

How does that catch you off guard when all offseason? I've been saying he's a nepotism draft pick. His name is Marlon Harrison. He doesn't deserve the same name as a Hall of Famer. Yeah. If his name was Marlon, Rodriguez would anyone care you know yeah what I've heard where would he go in drafts yeah and uh on that note too you know the the the chargers don't do a lot of press type stuff on the

outside or at least they didn't we'll see what they do now um you know what's funny is i have no idea who this offensive coordinator or defensive coordinators for the chargers like i know every coach in the nfell i know all the position coaches this o'leary dude he was western michigan's defensive coordinator last year bro i feel like they just hire guys with irish sounding names. I feel like they, here's what it is. That's the whole like hiring process. It's like Declan Doyle, McVeigh, McShannan, McDaniel, the list goes on. Yeah, they're just, they're just irish. Well, so this guy coached with Jesse Minter in 2024 at Michigan, I think, or in Baltimore, something like that. But he was with Western Michigan last year. So they brought

a guy from Western Michigan to run an NFL defense because presumably he's going to be able to run the Jesse Minter defense that they lost when he left for the head coaching job in Baltimore. Anyways, I just thought that was funny because I know like every coach in the league for me to not know a defensive coordinator it's pretty wild. Dude, the Irish are running the coordinator jobs in the NFL

like they ran New York City in the early 20th century with their Shanahan McDaniel McDaniels, McDonald, McVeigh, McDermott, O'Connell, Callahan, Brady, Kelly first names Liam Kellen Sean and then Declan Doyle that's the most Irish name ever yeah have you seen the departed yeah one of my all-time favorite yes it's a great one a lot a lot of times like yeah a lot of times

the Oscar winning you know big big good review movies kind of stink but that one is truly good so yeah it gets better with every rewatch all right DJ more listed as a I don't know that we need a ton of analysis coming off an injury plus he's facing the Houston Texans like do it does it need to get any deeper than that like this guy has to go against Derek Stangling Camarie Lasseter and probably the best pass Russian football that's that's just clearly a sit to me yeah it's also a player I wasn't drafting so you know when it fits my priors I'm going to lean into it especially this early into the season matchups matter it's just they don't really matter a whole lot week one because there's so much turnover it's just like anything we think

we do know it's it's actually very fragile more fragile than we think so um yeah it's it's a little bit of both right there all right bryan thomas junior we've talked about the murderous slate he has early in the year he gets to go against denzil ward this week he's listed as a sit for you and for joe dolin here what's up with uh what's up with your guy b tj yeah i think he could catch a shadow from denzil ward it's just you know also like i just think parker washington blows up I think it's a better matchup for him. I don't think it's a great matchup for BTJ. But we kind of went over this when we had Debrough on.

I'm anticipating a slow start to the season from BTJ. Yeah, it should be. I was talking to Chris the other day and I asked him directly, does Denzel Ward scare you at all or no? And he said, nah. No, he doesn't think there's a shadow. Well, he said even if there is, like he doesn't think Ward is still that good to,

I mean, it just means the easier spot to go at the ball. as Parker and Jacoby. You look at the rest of that secondary for sure. And I'm like, well, why go at Denz Award if you don't have to? Right. And that's, I think, the game plan Liam Cohen will go into the game with. That's typically what happens. So, all right, last sit here for the wide receivers.

We have Casey Concepcion. You know, my take, and then I'll get to you. I just agree, you know, regardless of a matchup, regardless of anything. They are playing a tough defense in Jacksonville, but like Deshawn Watson, I think this could be a slow start to Casey. He's a rookie playing with arguably the, worst QB situation in the NFL. Not great. Yeah, it's I'm very bullish on Casey, but I think it probably takes him a while to get going. This is generally what you see from rookies is they get a

lot better in the second half, targets per route run, yards per route run, fantasy points per game, all jump by about 25 percent, something like that. So I think you, yeah, if you drafted him, you drafted him as a bench player, you can afford to sit him. And you're rostering him and not dropping him for what he can do in the second half of the year. Not to go backwards, Scott, but my Ajaer Averro, Carolina Panthers, not the same cover three you see everywhere else. I was right. They disguised their coverages on 46% of drawbacks against last year. That is freaking insane. So the guy's a legit mad scientist. Future head coach, huh? I don't know. He's kind of had that buzz, but it's, it's kind of dissipated over the years.

Like he was like a big deal when he was, I think Denver before Carolina. And then all of a sudden, It's just kind of like, but yeah, he's always been good like really good at relative to his is his Personnel. Yeah, very much so that's that's the biggest thing I would say about him very good relative to the talent he has at his disposal and this year he has more of that than any year prior. All right. Let's get into some toy dens here. Do you know what country is gyro ever oh how do you pronounce it? Is now I'm confused now I just confused myself because you you said it that way. Um, Evero is his last name. Jairo Evaro. Is he, I don't know.

It's from, uh, grew up in, uh, he was born in England. He grew up in California. Okay. All right. But the Wikipedia called him an English American football coach. I'm like, what? Oh, right on. Um, tight ends.

Three starts, two sits. Michael mayor, like, come on. Obvious reasons. Brock Bowers goes down. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, what, what, what? Yeah, but, but who would you start Michael mayor over it? Would you start him over Travis Kelsey? Would you start him over Tucker Kraft?

Would you start him over Kyle Pitts, Harold Famine, Dallas Goddard? Here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to pull up Chris Wex projections. And he's shockingly high. New from Nespresso. Blend wellness into your coffee routine with a coffee plus range infused with functional benefits. Choose the coffee you love with added B vitamins, like coffee plus B12 to help support immune function.

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You want to want? I'll give you a more. New season hits September 18th on Paramount Plus. I'm going to, okay, I'll start him over. Tyler Warren. Would you start him over Tyler Warren? That might be the line. I think I'd start them over everybody not named McBride, Laporta,

Loveland Warren. But yeah. I think this is a little too high, honestly. Max Cascano was in my mentions yesterday. He actually doesn't think Michael Mayer sees a substantial uptick in routes or targets. He kind of thinks he plays the same role. Maybe it's Jack Besh who gets the increased role. But I mean, Titan 4 is pretty high.

I'm not starting him over Tyler Warren. But yeah, mid-range Titan 1 sounds about right. You saw it last year in the games without Brock Bowers. He had a 78% route share. he had 2.25 yards per route run. These are exceptional numbers. And like, let's not lose sight of the fact that guys, Michael Mayer is good.

One of my favorite stats is, in all of college football history, there's only ever been two tight ends to have multiple power five seasons with 800 receiving yards. One is Brock Bowers, the other is Michael Mayer. So this guy's good at the ball at football as well. He, uh, mark my words right now.

He's going to get paid in the offseason. set free to go be tied in one somewhere yeah yeah and people like the casuals would be like what he's got like 800 career receiving yards but like it's not going to matter it's going to be like uh our boy charlie colar down in los angeles maugging ironda gatson you know what i mean yeah you know what i mean scott all right uh who is next you tell me uh Travis kelsey Travis kelsey is a start um yeah what's the thinking here i i don't have a real a real good take on So this is not a player I was drafting at all, but I'm going to like him the most this week. And I'm going to like him less and less every week that passed because he's an old guy, a dusty guy, a wash guy.

You just saw Cooper Cup, you know, at least have one really sick catch. And so before age and injuries take its toll, week one, I'm pretty bullish, especially as Rishi Rice maybe isn't fully up to speed yet. but it's also a good matchup Denver is a tight end funnel matchup because their cornerbacks are so good it makes sense to target the tight end a little bit more so I can see Travis Kelsey having a big game

you didn't catch that or you just glossed I'm gonna lose my shit if you do it one more time inside jokes people inside jokes they're gonna turn on you they're gonna be 1,000% beyond they've already turned on me what do you mean I got guys in the men

just call me a meathead, you know? Like they say it sounds like Shane Gillis. You should see the Romeo Dobbs tweets after last night. Oh, that was fun. Well, hey, you know what? I watched the tape on Romeo. How wasn't it wasn't as bad as you made it sound. Dude, he, it was bad.

I mean, he had that really bad drop. Don't get me wrong. That was bad. But like the route running, everything was fine. He was open a lot. Just wasn't the primary in several reads. And Drake May literally lost his mind. It makes it worse because he has that goofy.

I know. The guardian. You can't. hide him you cannot hide it so you have you come in with zero aura and you can't be dropping passes like that it is true watching watching all of his routes going route for route it was so easy to find him just like romeo's big dome yeah you know the only like like it's it's indisputable that it like prevents concussions and it's so good for your health but like no no one it's except for dives wants to wear it because they think it makes you look like a loser yeah yeah i mean they're right

But yeah, dude, protect your brain health. I pretty sure they paid him to like as an official sponsor. I think so, yeah. Speaking of getting paid, like the Patriots paid him a lot of money. Yeah. And he was really like he got out targeted by four different players on that offense. Yeah, well, my Patriots beat said, DeMario Douglas is probably the wide receiver too. Yeah.

And without AJ Brown, he expects him to get a lot of targets. He agreed with me. Dobbs looked like trash. But he also was saying, yeah, I just kind of think. Douglas was better based on what I saw. What was the guy's occupation? He's the local TV reporter out there in New England. He had me on a few times back when he was in Houston, but he's in New England.

Okay, cool. Joanne Johnson against Detroit, another Detroit, New Orleans matchup. Start. This one I agree with. Finally, we get to a New Orleans player I agree with. I really like Joanne Johnson this week, especially because the way the lions are, they kind of have transitioned to like a real too high heavy team. and a lot of inversions, but they have Devin White as their starting Will linebacker

instead of Alex Anzolone this year. Now, White is good at some things, fitting runs and being part of the pass rush package and the Blitz game and the stunt game and the twists and all that. It's great at that stuff. What Devin White is not good at is covering. He cannot cover anything. And that's going to be the primary matchup in coverage when they go man. So Juan against Devin White, the Will linebacker there in Detroit.

I think that's just an absolute. smash winnable matchup for juan so much so dan campbell's pointed it out three days in a row in his press conference talking about we got to shut down joan johnson so uh i think uh dan recognizes that but i don't know that they have what it takes to take it away so start joan johnson yeah super underrated over the last 10 weeks of the season last year he was top 20 among all players and receiving yards kind of just got really unlucky with touchdowns um so yeah uh mid-range a low end tight end one this week. Cool. The two sits, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson.

Why are we sitting, Kincaid? I feel like this is a good spot for him. Yeah, it is a really good spot for him. There's a lot of things that Ryan Heath likes, you know, crazy stat that we had last year is just excluding all games. He was on the injury report. He would have finished Titan 5 by fantasy points per game. I brought this up for like to give you an opportunity to dunk on me

or disagree with me just in the hopes that, you know, we become more educated. But yeah, to me, he's someone you probably drafted as your tight end too. I feel like I just want him to prove it to me that he's going to get an expanded workload. And if that happens, that's just like a little special treat on your bench. But I don't want to be counting on it. And Chris is very bearish. Look at this, Titan 20 projection. That's pretty crazy.

So I would sit him, but I know Ryan would start him again. you have tight end five last year went off the injury report this is the healthiest he'll be all year well here's here's here's where it gets tricky right because you just said if you drafted them you probably drafted them to be your tight end too so then you got to figure out what tight end you're starting him over right um i doubt there's a lot of like kelsey kinkade combos i think a lot of the kinkade owners are probably tucker craft george kittle owners as we've been laying out all offseason right so i don't know who exactly you're starting them over i'll just say this if you are streaming the position.

This is one where you didn't draft a tight end or you drafted one really late and you plan on playing matchups every week. I love this matchup for Kincaid. For one, Buffalo is, they're an offensive wagon. They're one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history. Do you realize they're like their possessions per game is near the bottom of the league every year, yet they lead the league or they're like top three in scoring every single season? Like you cannot stop Josh Allen in the aggregate.

will he have occasional missteps here and there? Sure, but in totality, like, as good as the Texas defense is and they might take away DJ more completely, somebody has to produce for Josh Allen. And I think it's going to be Donald Kaked. When you look at matchup specific metrics, the disguise coverages, zone, too high, split out wide versus slot, nickel, single high, all of these tendencies that Houston's defense will lean into, Dalton Kodade gets a massive, massive yards per outrun boost. So I think this is a really good spot for him. Again, I don't know who exactly I'm starting him over.

I'm talking more to the streamers, the people streaming the tight end position because they waited so long. They didn't get one of our guys. But that said, yeah, I like it. Yeah, Jake Ferguson, it's just, again, leaning into my priors, it was very low on him. From week eight on last year,

when everyone was fully healthy, the Cowboys knew what he had in George Pickens. He was just a total afterthought. It's tight on 34 by targets per route run, tight on 26 by fantasy points per game. So I think I need him to prove something to me before I feel really good about starting. Do you remember last year when he was like on pace for like 160 targets or something? There was like a moment last season.

Yeah, yeah. He was one of my guys. I was all over Jake Ferguson. And that was that rocked for us in the first half and then he just totally disappeared. Trey, if if it's possible pull up Big Ferguson's player page with the matchup card because it's one of the funniest things you'll ever see because it tilts so heavy against Ferguson it just it made me laugh the first time I saw it but uh basically the way new york's going to play defense versus the way Jake Ferguson wins there's not a lot working in his

favor um click the player matchup at the top left tray boom it will it will break down this matchup so there you're going to look at all the negatives on the right in red versus the positives uh in green on the left I this is really is not a good match. up for him. So that said, he's going to catch five dump-offs and rumble for 60 yards in a touchdown just because we slammed down. But all right, we good? We're good. That's all. That's start sit for week one. We did it. We did it. We're going to be doing start sit every week. That's going to be what Thursdays for sure, right, Scott? Yeah. In season, possibly splitting that in the two episodes, Wednesday, Thursday. We're not entirely sure yet how the weekly calendar will work. But we will bring in

you start. We'll be bringing you start set every single week from now until the end of the season. Thank you so much for sticking with us. That's going to do it today. We are out.