Fantasy Football Daily - Panning For Veteran Gold: Dynasty Points: Market Report

Episode Date: February 3, 2024

Dynasty Points: Market report with Thomas Tipple (@ElNostraThomas), Andy Buckler (@Andy_Buckler), and Tom Lie (@Tom_Lie92) talk about the importance of the early off-season in dynasty leagues. They also cover some feelings on older vets, and if now is the best time to get into the veteran gold mine, at what cost are we ok with it? SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠ As mentioned, Thomas was on the Pure Potential Podcast with Paul Patterson. Check it out here ---- https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/purepotential/episodes/4-Brock-Purdy--Talent-vs--Situation-e2f7pgh --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episode two of the Dynasty Points Market Report is here for you. This is going to be a very different show than anything else that you've gotten at FantasyPoints.com in terms of dynasty content. I, of course, am your host with the most time on his hands. I am Thomas Siple. You can find me at El Nostra Thomas everywhere. And did you know that the real name for a hashtag, is an octo-thorpe.

The octo refers to the eight points in the symbol, but according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, the Thorpe portion is still a mystery. Jesus Christ. Well, I am Tom Lee, and I'm back. You can find me on X, which is now changed his name at Tom underscore Lee, spot L-I-E-92.

And we're bringing a little Australian flavor back. So did you know it's still technically illegal to wear hot pink hot pants after midday on a Sunday in Australia? I can't believe that that's actually true. Doesn't stop me, but it's true. Oh, man, so I'm Andy Buckler. You can find me on Twitter or X at Andy underscore Buckler.

That's B-U-C-K-L-R. And did you guys know that in high school, Teddy Bridgewater and Amari Cooper played together and they combined it for 40 touchdowns. Imagine being a DB in high school having to play against that. And they were just at a regular high school too. Oh, my God. Not like a prep school or just a regular-ass regular high.

regular high school that's unbelievable imagine like man I got a D in math today but I'm so glad I get to play football and it's Amari Cooper and Teddy Bridgewater like no I'm done I'm done

I'm going to badminton it's over for me of course as you heard there's a new voice on the podcast today it is Tom Lee I mentioned him on Dynasty Points he is the best Dynasty player that I have come across in my time he never isn't competing unless he truly decides he doesn't want to. He competes by accident. He's so good. And I've never

victoriously come out on top in a trade with him. Yet I continue to trade with Tom Lee. And of course, Andy always back with us. As per yuge. We are recording this show on the first of February. And the way we're going to do things from now on on this program, we're going to have, we're going to split this into two. We're going to have a nice little casual, conversation about dynasty and we're going to put in the hard work. But of course, we can't just do that like normal people here on this program. We have to give you a little bit something extra. So Tom Lee, walk us through what we have for this conversation.

Part one, like you said, casual conversation. So I thought, well, spice us up a little Aussie flavor and bring you a little bit of the Aussie sort of vernacular into the year. So we're calling this segment, it's Smoko Time and I'm fanging for some Macas. a lighter look at the dynasty landscape and this week we're looking at what to do in the early off-season of your fantasy or dynasty leagues.

Yeah, and it's it is very important and if you don't know what any of that means okay, it just means you're going out you're ready for a smoke break to nice and relax at work and you want some McDonald's.

Right, am I, that's right? Did I nail that? That's right? There we go. That's what's up. It's Smok-o time, and I'm fanging for some macas. Man, I love it. But it's a genuine question and something that everyone needs to.

I have heard of leagues, which I think this is asinine, and if your league does this, don't call the, like, the commissioner and threaten to kill his family. Like, we don't, you don't want to do that. But you should all ban together and push for a vote. like normal people and vote to have it so your transactions are not locked until the Super Bowl because that is stupid. There's no break in dynasty. But Andy, something you want to mention here, what is something that is crucially important to do very early in the offseason,

aside from just joining 10 startups? What I do on the smoke go time with the Macer? is I go and I look. Well, like you said, you definitely want to peep the waiver wire every single day. If you have open waiver wire, like daily running daily waivers, look every day at anybody that's like on sleeper, they have the trending tab. Just look. Anyone who's young and exciting, just add them.

Who cares? You could drop them before your rookie draft just in case we get some type of news and maybe you can get a free third round picked. But I think what's really important to do is you look at the teams that are old. like they're old early in the off season maybe they didn't win they didn't win last year and they're just old and you could see that at least you think they're about to build the team up but they haven't said anything yet try to get to him first and try to get some deals on those players like now is the time in the off season when the players aren't scoring points like the amari cooper is the cooper cup so you can get them for way lower than you could in a couple months even after the rookie draft so i would go to those teams that have like the little dusty the dusty rosters and try to see if you can make some plays on some of those players before some of your other league mates get to them yeah i think it's very important Tom? For me, it's dump the junk. Go through your roster.

Anyone you added to try and get to or try to sort of, I guess, counteract anyone else picking them up on a playoff run, get rid of them. All the people that you picked up as just add-ons that are taking up roster spots that are stop you from doing those waivers, like Andy said, ditch them.

Get rid of it. Clear it out. Get the junk going. Make sure your league's rolled over so you can re-access the taxi squads and stuff as well and go through and just have a look at that roster to make sure you've trimmed as much fat as you can within reason.

So you can go and make these transactions. It's one of those things people get lazy with. And like you say, if you check the trainings and all of a sudden, then you've got to make in that moment a decision of who to call and what to do to your roster to try and get them on. It's just one of those things you can do straight up. Have a look at it. Get rid of the junk and go from there.

Use all the spots. Use all your taxi spots, all your roster spots. Make sure you don't have any thing spots. Yeah. I feel all the spots out for sure. Yeah. Like if you have like Josh Palmer on your roster, right now.

Like, just drop them for an ambiguous running back or like a tight end that might play. Pick them up for a quarterback. Somebody dropped that, like, isn't signed right now because you don't know. You don't know. Pinpoint ambiguous situations. Is it probable that these players have prominent roles? Absolutely not. Is it possible that maybe sort of they might have a chance?

And I think tight end is a smash for this. Conklin I love Yeah I love I love Conklin He's great Could be on your waiver wire At this point

If somebody dumps him Monitor the players Your league mates might potentially drop Yeah I mean the key examples Is offseason right Jerome Ford And

Karen Williams Not necessarily dropable But there's a fringe roster Guys from a year ago Both were top 15 On the season As running backs So there's

Heaps of stuff out there If you have five spots, add five people like we were talking about before. You just don't know. You never know how it's going to filter out. Who actually has talent? Like we haven't seen it. Like I think it was in the early preseason, the Batakanda was getting a lot of play for the Jets. You know, speculative ad, but if he's got juice and looks good, add him on.

And you can speculate wildly without having seen it at this point in the year. Yeah. I think like James Went, Davis Mills, I think all those guys should be rostered in every dynasty league right now. Because we just don't know what will happen. So I think we should have. on them. Xavier Gibson, another example. Really a nobody with the Jets had a cup of coffee.

Evan Hall. Evan Hall for the Colts running back. 100%. All those guys that are gross to you in season can be valuable to you in the off season. And worst case scenario, you just dropped them again. Not say go trade a fourth round pick for them. Don't do that shit. Don't do that.

exactly what I was about to say was if you pick them up, go and trade them for a fourth round pick if it's like, you know, or a third round pick because you're going to get these articles, such and such looking good in the preseason. Perfect. Best shape of his life. Yeah.

I bet. He's not playing football. First guy in, last guy out, sneaky athletic. Best shape of his life. Quarterback. Yeah.

Right. Yeah. Well, I mean, trying to. More like getting the quarterback coffee. More like getting the quarterback coffee. Like,

I don't think these guys that we're talking about are the ones having the coffee, but they might be getting for them. Carrying their pads. Just whatever they have to do. Taking their notes, dry cleaning, etc. But it's these low-end guys that can really be

worth something down the line. And in the off-season, because again, none of us know. None of us have any idea. So I think that's important. And before I move on, I think there's one last crucial piece of information that is

pivotal to your success. Stay in contact with your league mates. I mean, Tom Lee, you and I previously on the walkabout used to hammer this home every week. Talk to your league mates. Leaguemate that pissed you off in week nine because he wouldn't give you running back X for, you know, a third and a third and a fourth. And you like didn't talk to him the rest of the year. Screw that guy. Get over it.

Yeah. Yeah. Go. Hey. How's it going? What are you thinking? you know what about that lie lie your ass off to talk to them yeah i'm really kind of thinking this might be bad you know what just engage but lie if you have to to get something out of them

figure out where they are at if you're not lying you're not trying in fantasy football and i'm pro being the bad guy here um try to get an idea of what they're looking to do right oh i see you've got pick like 105 i mean are you looking for a quarterback because, you know, maybe we can work something out for my quarterback X, you know, if you're not sure what to do with the one. Do it. Get in contact. Yeah. Throw random holes up in the chat.

Get some chat started. Just have a little, just open up those lines. Send some funny tweets or something. Just get the league mates trying to talk and get them talking. Just. Just anything. Like, we used it all the time. Andy, one thing I do all the time in leagues and Tom Lee is seeing me do this.

as Tom Lee is also a member of the legal record for the Dynasty Point show with Jacob and I beat me drives me nuts but anyway bastard I'll get over it so one thing I like to do

is I like to deliberately complete a trade that makes no sense like we'll trade 5 fab for 5 fab because what it sounds really stupid you're laughing yeah yeah but what it does is it makes everyone check the league right they get the notification like oh a trade got made and they'll go and check their phone oh my god who what what the hell and then people are laughing and they're commenting and then you know what now i am trying to make a trade then someone puts a player up on the

block that no one's actually going to make an offer on because just putting guys on the block is really stupid. And, yeah, but it gets, it gets, like Will Ferrell says, it gets the people going. It gets the people going. Right. Right. So those are very important for you to do in your off season and you should be doing it all the time.

And yeah, lie. Absolutely. Absolutely. And if, look, if there's something that you're doing in the off season that we haven't mentioned, drop it in the comment section. drop in the comment section tag us in the discord right and let us know

we'll have a full conversation about tell me why I'm the bad guy for constantly lying to my league mates because I do it all the time and getting them back on shows yes yeah I look it was a long journey to get Tom Lee back but we needed them

because again he's just a damn good dynasty player so listen to Tom Lee more than me probably, but we're going to take another break when we come back. We're getting in to the good stuff. Sit tight, can't wait. Okay, Tom Lee, why don't you explain to the people what we have coming up in this section, the most important section of the program? So there's some stuff from the past that we've changed and there's some stuff that was just

too good to let go. So this segment we call hard yacker, hard yacker in Australia. is getting out there on the tools, in the sun, sun on your back, beads of sweat falling from your forehead, fanging for a beer, getting stuck into the hard work. And this week we're looking at panning for veteran gold, separating the gold from the oil, the nugs from the mugs, and the money from the dunny.

And if you don't know what a dunny is, well, look it up online. The real question is, is now the perfect or the most terrifying time in fantasy and dynasty to add a veteran to your roster to improve the value? That's a great question. I'll start with Andy here because I'm interested to hear what he has to say, and I think my answer is going to be long-winded. So I want to start with Andy. I actually think right now, like as in 2024 off-season this year,

is the best time to add vets, especially at the running back position, just because of how bad this class is projected to be. So a lot of guys like the James Connors, the guys are projected to have big workloads and look really good at the end of the season, are like 12th round startup values right now, probably available for like, you know, 208 to 212.

I'm talking like, you know, James Connor, Derek Henry, all those dudes, like, they're going to have jobs and they're way cheaper to get. So I think now is the best time to buy those way more than in years past where it would be time to sell them just because like the class is projected to be really bad. Like we might not get a third round running back this year. We probably like almost probably 80% we won't get a second round running back in the NFL draft this year. So I think now is the time to buy those guys.

And even with the receivers, like, as I've, like, I used to be an Aegeist really, really bad. And I still have that bias. But I kind of just stopped caring about it. Like I'm way more, like, likely to buy the Devante Adams to Stefan Diggs. Like, I'm way more likely to buy those dudes now and give up, like, the Jacoby Myers in the second. Like, those, just those type of players. So I think now, honestly, for me, is the perfect time, way more than it used to be in the past. I think now is the perfect time to just go get those players because they're going to be so much more expensive by,

time September hits. Yeah, I can't disagree. I think this is the best time, and I think it's without question, the best time. If you, but I got, you got to have the stones to go and do this because there is a chance that these veteran players have their season blown up for the most part. The free agent running backs, like Andy mentioned, huge. And we got Barclay, Jacobs, Pollard, Echler, Swift, Henry, Singletary. Moss. No one cares about

his career is definitely over. But even somebody like Gibson Yeah. We don't know what they could be But they're definitely cheaper than Before they get signed somewhere And they have an established role

As soon as they have an established role Their price is going to go up Yeah, don't worry about it Yeah. Right. Ronald Jones When he was a free agent Oh yeah cost you nothing now he still ended up costing you nothing because he did nothing because he's horrendous

but when he signed with dallas is like oh is he is he going to be the LDD to tone for for Tony Pollard and believe it or not you can move him for a third especially when he signed with the chiefs the first time he was a free agent yeah exactly yep exactly price went up so by these ambiguous situations now because we don't know is Austin Echler ever going to be a lead back anymore? I doubt it. He said he may not play if they

treat him like an undrafted free agent, which I hate to have someone break it to him how they treat 30 year old running backs coming off an injured season. But I think he'll definitely get a job. Is Sequin Barclay, the elite back anymore? And he hates his guts.

But I think he's very, very good and he's the cheapest he's going to be. He signs a free agent contract somewhere with a competent offense Sequin Barclay and Baltimore his price is going to go through the absolute roof anywhere that needs a running back and has the money to spend

Barclay shows up his price is going to triple Derek Henry is really cheap right now very cheap 10th round startup pick cheap signs with Dallas on like a two year $15 million contract jeez that's a late one because you know he's scoring 12 touchdowns. It's just what it's going to happen.

So get the running backs right now. Maybe we talk about one in this segment right here. But I think you're right. I think this is the perfect time to get them. Even a guy like Calvin Ridley, who I like take giant dumps on at every, every chance I get because everyone that told me who was worth two first, he's not. Never was. But. He was when I sold him for two first.

He was. He was so much. Because you did get to do that. But Calvin Ridley, his expected fantasy points, was barely lower than AJ Brown. He was top 10 and expected fantasy points last year. It just, if Trevor Lawrence was at all, the prince that was promised, those points would have been realized. But he wasn't. But he might be, he's still going to have a role.

So what is he at worst, right? a low-end wide receiver 2, but you're going to get him for nothing compared to what his price is when he signs, or we know what his role is, we know his quarterback's going to be. You take those chances right now. And like we do in this segment,

we have gone out and we have pulled real-life trades using various trade finder tools for Dynasty, and we are going to go over what we want to do. So Tom Lee is what's going to happen. You are going to read the trade, and we are going to pick. Now, each one of us has highlighted some players. So for record, on the show sheet, mine is yellow, just so everyone knows when they're reading it. But we're going to ask the question.

We're going to answer it, and then we're going to talk about each player. Yeah. So first up, Tom Lee, who do we have? Well, firstly, I love that in a segment, that we asked the question Andy's response included none of the players we're about to talk about. I thought that was particularly poignant.

Like, oh, these are all good examples. We're not talking about any of them. You're saving them, Tom Lee. Sure, no, great. Good craft, master of the craft I've heard. I was like, oh, that'll be good guy to cover. No, we're starting with the man of the Super Bowl, possibly. Patrick Mahomes.

Who brought Perry? You want to talk about Patty Mahomes. Yeah, right? No, he's not old enough because he's actually worthwhile. No, Patrick Mahomes, 28 years old. So the whole idea of this was to try and pick veterans who, depending on what category they're in, are unappealing either based on age or because they're starting to become assets we're very familiar with, but don't know where to value them or what to do with them. So Mahomes is a guy who had a huge fall off this year,

slid down the 12th in points per game in PPR scoring, which is a huge drop away from what this man's potential is. So 28 years old, still, we know that contract is on. But the first try we found for him was Justin Herbert and a 25-1 or Patrick Mahomes. I'll take the Herbert. Herbert and a one for sure. Yeah, I'm the same. I'm Herbert and the one for sure as well. Herbert last year was the QB2 for, you know, like five weeks, six weeks until he gets hurt again,

hurts the finger again. Everyone on his offense just dies again. Second year in a row, the dude has had like probably the worst runout, a quarterback we can imagine, with the broken ribs last year. the finger and all the weapons are getting hurt this year. I'm taking Herbert in the first, like, for sure. Because I think they're going to be a similar production. The buying power that first is just going to be really good.

So I'm definitely taking the Herbert side. Well, you're getting three years. You're getting three years here. Spot on. Yeah. For what it's worth, I'm also taking Herbert in the first. It's just interesting with like what you mentioned there, Andy, with Herbert and his entire offense getting injured.

I don't know if it's going to change anytime soon. So there is a little flag on Herbert and what's going to happen with that team. Hey, Quinn Johnson. went on on on on no and quoted that with harbaugh break he's he's he's he feels he's due for resurgence i don't know when his initial surgeons happened like when he surged the first time but he's ready for resurgence so you put some respect on that offensive name sure tom lee and they do have a top five pick they do have a top five pick that's bower's the guy's going to have offensive lineman no it'll be a it'll be like a insert some defense

defensive lineman from Michigan. That's that's what'll happen. Just what. Jayne McCars. Chewing fingernails in the fourth, hoping they take a wide receiver. Blake Coram at the 105. Oh my God.

Now, hey, third round, Blake Corum, I'm all in. No, you are right. I think you are right. But let's not, let's not pretend like Herbert. No. Hasn't been like the best quarterback of all time.

It's still an easy top 10 guy as a quarterback in Dynasty. Plus the first. I mean, yeah. unless something massive changes from my homes where you can flip him for the three first that it was many years ago the process i think of herbert in the first makes a lot of sense yeah um because the second yeah sorry i'm sorry i'm saying just because you just look at it as a like as in a startup right mahomes is the 102 herbert's the one eight so if you go from the 102 to the 108 and you grab a first

easy money i think there if you look at it's a really good way to reframe it for a lot of people especially as startup season starts um yeah it becomes really important to remember those sort of things Yeah, but I'm sorry. So, you're going to trade two. We've taken a bit of a tear down here. Trevor Lawrence and the 24-104 and 102, sorry, 204. So 104-204-204 and Trevor Lawrence, tearing down from Herbert. We talked about the people's prints, at least by haircut.

Do we think that Lawrence and the 104 and 204 and 204 this year is worth Patrick Mahomes? Oh. The question is, what do you think of Trevor Lawrence? right this is this is what it comes down to man i i think it's enough that i would pull the trigger on lawrence and the first and second for me because we know how good and freakish patrick mohomes is yeah and we know that trevor lawrence has been mid right and i talked with paul paterson in the on the pure potential podcast last night which is out now you can go look that up we talked about Trevor Lawrence at great length he has talked me into there being enough surrounding

him in terms of narratives to somewhat explain away some of the negatives the injuries constantly just not good situation he's had elite games you're talking 104 and giving me neighbors or Bowers or Jaden Daniels on top of Trevor Lawrence and then insert your favorite wide receiver at 204. Yeah, I think at this point in the season, I'm more inclined to do that. Mahomes is amazing and he'll forever be amazing. The only problem I have with Patrick Mahomes is his floor is just as low as Trump. Trevor Lawrence's.

So, like, look at this year. He was the worst top five quarterback that you could have had for most of this year. Granted, he didn't have a lot of help. Whatever you want to say. Oh, he looks great in the playoffs. Now, that's just what he does. I would use this playoff run to go and make a deal like this. And not just because of that.

The 104 is just going to gain more and more momentum. So it doesn't even mean you have to make that pick. So looking at this in a non-lateral move, yeah, I would take the 104, the 204 and Trevor Lawrence right now. That's basically a four-first evaluation. Yeah. Yeah, this one was really tough for me. And at first glance, I think it's the Trevor Lawrence and the one four. But the more I think about it, I think I just want Patrick Mahomes.

I think Trevor Lawrence is like, he's like a fake, he has like fake job security, right? Like he's like the quarterback where it's like, oh, you know, he's the top pick. He's going to be a quarterback in Jacksonville for the next 10 years. And he's all this. He just like hasn't been good. Like for three years, his hasn't been good. And, you know, people still like like to put him in like, if we're talking like real life list, that he's like a top eight quarterback or even like with Herbert.

This hasn't shown that. He had a really bad rookie year. We gave him a mulligan on his rookie season because he had Urban Meyer. Second year, way better. Not great. Third year, right back to being pretty mid. I just don't think he's a proven asset really at all. And I don't want to look back in three years.

And Trevor Lawrence is on the Jerich off path. And I don't have Patrick Mahomes anymore. And I have, you know, a rookie receiver, a third year receiver at that point. So I think I just want to take Patrick Mahomes with that. You know, again, I go back to the startup value. Lawrence is now a mid-second round pick in startups. And that 104 probably call it an early third. So it's a mid-second, early third to get the 102.

to think again, I just want patched my homes. And I know the second, but the second, that's just like a receiver, like a 10th round pick, I guess. I don't really like, I'm more focused on the top pick and the quarterback. And I think I just want my homes on now. Yeah. I think process-wise, I like, I shake out the same. The fear for me is I have shares in my homes and I have none of Lawrence.

So watching on, nothing inspires me to go and trade away those shares. And that's the mindset I have just based on like the experience I've had. So like Tom said, there could be. heaps out there that Lawrence could be completely different or could still be the guy. For me, in this point in the off season, I'm probably still holding my homes just because I think he's still in the playoffs. If he wins another Super Bowl MVP, his price insurance for me holds better than the potential of the 104 for now. And I could look at something different to Lawrence. I don't feel like I have to take this offer right now. I could either sit on it and mull it and try

to get a little more out of it, or I can let Mahomes' price and his, you know, twelfth and PPR, sorry, points per game finish sort of fade to the oblivion as the Super Bowl approaches and then look for something else if a one-two in this off-season. I think trading away at Mahomes is not a bad call this off-season. It just depends on what the return is. And Lawrence and 104 is not doing it for me just yet. Realistically, the four first plus price for Mahomes is not really attainable in established leagues. Like no one's ever actually going to pay that. This is probably the closest you're going to get to that. Now, imagine we talked about how the charters need some. Imagine neighbors, right? going to the Chargers? What if Jane Daniels?

What if the first three picks are quarterbacks? What if we go Caleb May Daniels? Now Daniels is going to shoot up Superflex rookie drafts. And also, by the way, these are all PPR, all 12 team, all Superflex. I forgot to mention that at the top. But what

if Daniels gets that top 10 draft capital that we want, even top five? He's going to shoot up Superflex boards. May is going to stay at the 102. Now you're looking at a legitimate possibility of not having to move up too far, potentially, get a Marvin Harrison Jr. I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trevor Lawrence,

that's Mahomes worthy to me. So that's what I mean by looking at it in a non-lateral sense, uh, or an indirect sense anyway, that you can get more value from this pick, just not being a 104. You can really start applying some of the elite potential with that pick down the road,

which is why I'm more there. Trevor Lawrence is the only part of it. That's Herbert and that pick, I'm in. It's purely down to the talent of the guy. So, yeah, and I know that sounds obvious, but like it's, it's just one of those ones of an unknown as far as a player I haven't got a lot of shares of.

So looking closer, I could easily be swung. I mean, Trevor Lawrence ever ends up with 16 to 18 points per game. I think that trades will win. Yeah. If you're getting, I mean, you have to be okay with those potentially blowing up in your face, but don't want to spend too much more time on this trade specifically. let's talk about the next deal.

So, Dakota, Mr. Dack Prescott. This is a guy I do have a lot of shares of. So this one particularly intrigues and excites me depending on what your responses are. So we found out that Dach traded for Bryce Young and the 107. Let's go to Andy first, just because of the Bryce Young take earlier. This is, like, this is again similar to the Trevor Lawrence Mahalmers

that we just talked about. I want DAC here because I think I just don't want to take on that risk of the Bryce Young, like the bucket he's in, like I talked about earlier, the bucket he's in with his rookie season, the chance that he has a chance to be in, you know, two, three years, like a legitimate zero in dynasty. And he hasn't, he doesn't run the ball. We know that. He's very little. He doesn't run. That wasn't in his college profile. So he doesn't even have that ceiling. If he does end up being like a good NFL quarterback, he's not going to be a great fantasy quarterback. Yeah. So you, and he obviously has like,

he has no insulation at this point. Like even, he has that little. He has that little. little sliver of the hope that he was just the number one pick. But he's just not an asset you could trust. He's the eighth round, like eighth round start a pick at this point, seventh, seventh, the eighth round pick. And that 107, that's a tier break. So you got the, you got the first two picks. We know who those are. Those are a tier of their own. Then we got the 103, 104, 105. Then there's that six player. That's like where Brock Bowers are Dunesay right there. And that seventh pick, like the tier just falls off the table after pick six. So you get a like a tier three, tier four rookie and a quarterback who most likely has no ceiling and has a chance to be a legitimate

like a legitimate NFL bust. I think you have to take DAC there. I think you're just taking all the risks in this trade for like no reason. Dax 30. We don't really care about the age though. Yeah. I think you can see how this trade came together, right? Someone's trying to get younger and again another asset. So I understand the concept of it, but I do agree that the floor of Bryce Young is probably too far to fall. The idea of trading the home is down to a known value of Herbert, it made a lot more sense because you get what you believe to be a set asset for longer at a time here what could be with bryce young is terrifying to me yeah i just want dack here for everything you guys said i don't really have much more to add this is this is um overthinking dynasty a

little bit yeah so the second trade we found was dac and the 109 so adding a first year or joe burrow and the two 12 so this time in theory getting younger quarterback getting more elite in theory at quarterback but trading away one of your own good possible assets and 109 and DAC thoughts yeah i'm going to take deck here again because i think you know DAC and burrow as the like as fantasy players very similar players neither of them run at this point burrow is young he's young but he's also older than we think you know he came in as a five-star five-year player in college he's 26 27 at this point, just a little older than a normal, like, you know, four-year player would be.

So he's not even that young. We don't care too much about it. At quarterback, we don't care about age, right? We look at it at years. Like, Dak probably has at least four years left of playing very well. And like I said, neither run. And then you're back at the picks. The 109, like, again, it's the tier break. It's after the 107. It's even worse. But that could still get you, like, you can still send that 109 and get like a decent contending piece. You can probably get like, I mean, you can get Devante Adams probably plus another player for that 109 easy. So you look at DAC plus Devante Adams plus another second for Burrow and last pick of the second round. So that's how I look at it and I would easily take Dak. I think like the common

perception of the trade would be Burrow is so much higher than Dak. Like he's so much more valuable. And maybe there is. I think that's just like like Joe Burrow just looks sexy in your lineup. But when it comes to scoring points, I mean they're they're damn near the same player. So I want the deck side. I don't about you Tom but that's nearly word for word for what I was going to say. You either flip the 109 for better value piece and you compare the points on field between DAC and borough

and for me it's DAC side easy. No disagreement for me here at all. I'm taking DAC in 109 there. It just says more about them just being pylon type quarterbacks and no, but they can run. I get it.

But he's still classified as the pylon quarterback. Let's go to the next one here because this one, this one I picked. This is yours. The old massage maestro himself, Deshawn Watson, 28-year-old Deshawn. Man, ambiguous to say the least. But we found DeShone and Mike Evans or Trevor Lawrence. Let's go straight to Tom.

This is your boy. What do you think? Right. Two players that I'm adamantly not wanting. So I feel like this is interesting. but I will take Trevor Lawrence here this is where I'll take Trevor Lawrence Yeah

Deshawn Watson just looked as bad as can be And I don't know I won't say it's like the stink of having Deshawn Watson Yeah But this is something like I do believe Lawrence is going to be Better moving forward

And I don't know how much better DeShon's going to get in Cleveland And added Mike Evans who I know just absolutely balled out and everyone laughs at Dynasty players for like wanting to eat Mike Evans forever but I'll take the younger more stable

quarterback asset in this case I actually think this is an underpay for Trevor Lawrence if I'm being perfectly candid but that's just that's just my opinion here Andy yeah I agree so earlier in the show I called Trevor Lawrence fake job security but Deshawn Watson is like almost the epitome of fake job security at this point.

So everyone wants to point to that contract, right? But if he is as bad as we saw him last season, they are going to eat that money. They're just going to do it. It might look crazy right now, but it looked crazy last year if you said that the Broncos were going to cut Russell Wilson. If he's as bad as bad as that, like he's just not going to start for the Browns in two years, despite what the contract. says. And like, I want to believe in Deshawn Watson, right? Like, I mean, the league needs more good players and he especially needs more good quarterbacks. And that dude was like a rock star quarterback just three, four years ago, like the second, third best quarterback in the league.

But man, like you just, you have to look at like his two, whatever it is at this point, season, a half of playing for the Browns. You have to look at it candidly. You have to like, it's been really, really, really bad. And I think you just, I think you just take this trade and you take the shot at Lawrence because I feel confident at least that Trevor Lawrence is going to get a second contract probably with the Jags but somewhere at least and then you just have like he just has that like in a sense like fake installation that you think Watson has so I would and like like you said Evans is like really good but not a player that's ever going to go up and value I mean he's been you know like a top 10 wide receiver for seven years and no one gives a shit about him still so

you can easily buy him at any time so he's not he's like a he's an asset in a trade you throw in as like a fake overpay because you can always get him back so I would take Trevor Lawrence pretty easily and I'm not a big Trevor Lawrence guy. Yeah. No, I agree. I mean, I think realistically, if you wanted to add Evans in some sort of like, I'm going to win next year thing,

you want a better for a different quarterback to DeShon. So it doesn't really matter how you dice it up for me. You're probably sticking with Lawrence on the insurance side of things. Second trade, this time we're looking at acquiring Watson. So Rashi Rice and Debo Samuel or Watson and the 208, Thomas. Yeah, I'm taking the two receivers here. Yeah. I like Rishi Rice.

I like what he's going to do in that office. offense. I think he grows within this offense. Maybe he's not their future alpha, but damn, he's looked good. And look, Watson averaged about 15 points per game last year. And I think there's a real world where season two, Rishi Rice averages 15 points per game. And if I really need it, I will slap rice into my Superflex spot. Because remember, Superflex does not mean you have to play two quarterbacks. Not two key. And they leave. Right. So you're getting also in here, Debo, who I would take over the 208. Yeah, easy.

Yes. So I know Debo has outperformed. We're going to talk about Debo in a little bit here. But he's just a good player that can average, you know, 12, 14 plus points per game as well. And getting Rishi Rice is something I want to do. So I don't have to spend too much time on this. So I'm going to take Rishi Rice and Debo here. Eddie?

Yeah, I would like to just disagree with Tom, but I can't right now. So maybe a little later, but I would take the receivers easily because I'm just, I'm taking Rishi Rice straight up for Deshaun Watson. Like if someone sends me Rishi Rice for Deshaun Watson, I'm smashed you accepting that. And you add a second to Debo, I'm taking that too. So I want, I just, I want the receivers because I don't even think like, I don't even think this trades like honestly very even. It might be even in like a startup concept because Watson is going to go a little higher

because he's a quarterback. But when you get to a real league, like he's just not going to fetch that price. So easily. Yeah, this is near vetoable. But vetoes are ass and don't have them. But this is close. I think the interesting part of this offseason is going to be Rashi Rice. So Rashi Rice is, when I was doing the research, was the most traded player in all of these deals.

So I tried to limit it to one Rashi Rice trade. But acquiring and ditching for different prices was fascinating. People have really varied opinions of him because he's pre-breakout-ish. Some would say he's done it. Some would say it's yet to come. for me it's the receivers as well but it's really interesting to see what people think of Rashi Rice and will likely cover him

on future episodes of this in some manner the last guy for me was someone I thought might be the future of the Falcons depending on how much they want to pay and how much the Broncos want to pay Russell Wilson 35 year old dusty as anything

looking for a job are you taking Russell Wilson or the 201 in the 2024 rookie draft I'll actually take Russ I'll take Russ I'll take the 201 the 201

the 2-1 is historically the worst rookie pick in the history of rookie picks just flat out we've talked about the 201 for a long period of time and I yeah I'm taking Russ

just for the hope at this point but I don't blame you for not wanting any part of it any Russell Wilson is playing football and starting for someone in the NFL next year yeah he's just going to

because quarterback sucks right now. And the 201, not only being just a historically bad pick, but we're talking about a guy in Russ who's still very efficient as a quarterback, could still throw the ball downfield pretty well, took a few more sacks than you'd want to. He added 265 yards rushing, sorry, just scrambling. That's not including design runs.

He could, he could, he could still do it. And I mean, 26 touchdowns, eight interceptions, he's safe. He's going to net you enough fantasy points for him to be a good third QB on your Superflex team. And that 201, like I said, not only is historically bad per ADP, but I don't know in a class this lackluster to this point. What kind of impact player you're going to be able to net there? I will take the quarterback here.

I don't think he just is a backup and out of the league. Yeah, I agree. The second try we found was Russell or a 25 first. And the only reason I put this in here is to talk about the process of trading away current for future. So Tom, do you want to recap, I think for the fifth off season in the row, why it's not a good idea to buy into late first, whereas the better idea to trade for future first at this point? I don't even know where to begin with this because it's so unfathomably. stupid that you are convincing yourself that you can right now my first is going to be late I need a quarterback I'm going to trade Russell Wilson I don't need this first I got news for

you're a stubbed toe cooking accident away turf toe getting out of bed wrong for a 35 year old Russell Wilson praying too hard pulls his back you know Sierra's teaching him a dance routine he can't do it, blows his knee, away from this pick just being absolutely burnt. You don't pay future draft capital for future production. You trade that draft capital for current production. The off-season, you're not getting current production. So we're not trading future draft capital like this for an ambiguous, older dynasty asset for something that's going to 3x in value later.

It's just so egregiously stupid And I'm more mad at you for making me sit here and go through this That I am to do it to the people This is how it works Yeah Andy I assume you agree on that one Yeah easily yeah Yeah that's a that's a really bad trade That's I don't know about Russ

But that's a trade that you probably could get off though Just because people like They just don't care about those 25 first Like they think it like And they need quarterback Quarterback year on year right Like this is why we talk about quarterbacks And didn't neglect them

Just wait for him to go somewhere at least Yeah. Why are we doing this? Yeah, I don't even, my blood's boiling. Let's move on. Let's get into running backs. So we talked about the, the dislike and like

and the disagreements that might come here. So Saquan Barkley, 26, future a little ambiguous, but realistically, we know he's good, right? Can we all agree that Saquin Berkeley is a good running back?

And he won't. I cannot. I agree. He's a giant man. I'm going to ignore that and continue on with the trains. Yeah. So, Sequin or the 105?

Let's go to Tom first. Yeah, I'm taking 105 here. I'm taking 105 for the reasons I said before, right? It's neighbors, right? It's Bowers. It's potentially Daniels. And I'll just do that over a 26-year-old running back. But it's not to say that I don't think Sequin Barclay could just be absolutely sick in 2024.

Andy? Yeah, I'm taking the 105 as well. Just kind of going back to like, I guess, the way I've talked about every trade is like in a start. up context which this is like barcly is a six round pick the 105 is a third round pick like it's easy smash this isn't even like close to fair value so and barclay just especially for a pick like that it's just not a player you trade for right now you wait for you wait to trade for him i like i said early i said early early that i want to trade like i want to acquire these guys but not not like this this is a bad way to do that well this might be more up your alley so this time we have

or Godwin and the 202. Oh yeah. Everyone knows how I feel about Godwin. Get them out! See ya. Gone. Bye. Yeat. Out of here. So long. Farewell. Nice to know you.

I mean that, look, past game coordinator gone. Canales, gone. And you're stuck with Baker. Without the QB whisperer. See you. It was Mike Evans that pop for Baker Mayfield, not Godwin. Sands a couple. of games this year. No, no, I'm good. He is, he is a prototypical nesting doll type wide receiver

gone and the 202. No, I'm good. Sequin Barclay could be a legitimate 17 point per game running back this offseason. I'll take this. Godwin is so replaceable and the 202 is still a long shot. I'll take Barclay here. Andy? Yeah. Man, you just dumped on Rod God, former Penn Stater and then the line you said it crap on him like that. Yeah, that's crazy. That's actually crazy. But I'm taking Seqwell Berkeley pretty easily.

Yeah. You're trying so hard. You're trying so hard to disagree with me and you can't. I'm waiting for you to try and you absolutely cannot. And I love to see that you're trying to bend it in a way. I can see the steam coming from your headphones trying to figure it out and you can't. Damn. Oh, man.

Yeah, that's easy. Like, if you could make that trade, like, Godwin is, like, the prototypical fake value player. Yeah. Like, he is such a fake value player. Like, this is this easy trade for Sequan as a guy who definitely may lean on the side of a Sequan hater. I'm definitely taking. I'm definitely a trade and not that for Barclay.

Gobbin's one of those guys who still, for some reason, holds a special place in a lot of people's hearts. And I think they didn't have shares of him in any of the last two years. Yeah. Yeah. Like you can. So I'm not saying you can get to Saekon, but Godwin and the 202 is going to get you a fair chunk of points next year if you trade that away this season. But I'm with you guys. Sequin pretty easily in this one.

He was such a fake, cute, like he was such a fake wide receiver one. Yeah. In Tampa. Like their passing rate over expected was just so unbelievable. He was getting by on nothing but volume. And people just bought right into the, the top 12 dynasty wide receiver. and if you saw through that you could really capitalize. Could he still be relevant to teams possibly?

I fear Kenny Goladay, is what I fear. I don't fear Ghaladay. I feel like Jacoby Myers. Yeah, that's what I fear for him moving forward. We might talk about that. All right. We will. Tom's yellow highlights.

Yes. I got this. I got this. I'm going to start with how I feel. feel about Devante Adams and then we'll get into the trade that way this is good this goes by a lot faster now i want all this to be mentioned with like a bit of a grain of salt here because if cliff kingsbury shows up in Vegas and he's and Adams isn't traded to the jets or literally anywhere else i'm genuinely concerned that Adams will be lined up on the left side running three

routes that's it all season and i will be terrified of his value but in the next nine games Devante Adams had Aiden O'Connell as a starting quarterback. Adams finished second and first three targets only to C.D. Lamb. Okay? He only C.D. Lam had more with 85. Adams was significantly less efficient this year, undoubtedly. That's thanks to his quarterback being Aidan O'Connell. C.D. led the league in receptions in this time, but Adams is in a tie with McBride and Garrett Wilson with 56. That is a 33 catch difference. Efficiency, not there. The targets.

were on first read. But he had a higher yards per target and a higher yard per route run than Garrett Wilson had. And a lot of people like to talk about how explosive and great Garrett Wilson was with bad QB play. Adams was better in that regard. He only forced

three miss tackles, which is not great. So the yak's not necessarily there. But he is a technician. And as I mentioned with potential Kingsbury, he did play the exposition at 80%. So he's still an outside wide receiver that doesn't rely on the slot. And he played

pretty much his expected fantasy points per game last year. It was 1.5 points below. His expected fantasy points per game. He averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game, which is still very, very good. His expected fantasy points would still have been good for sixth

in the league in that span with those games with Aden O'Connell. So he was still the top 10 wide receiver and expected fantasy points. Right? He was right there with Ridley and Wilson finishing. tied for fifth right above him and you're getting Adams in like that

six to eighth round startup range he's exactly the type of person I like to buy and you buy him now and he goes with his old buddy A rod as we're already starting to see in in discourse especially if Kingsbury is there please God then his price

is going way up you're getting a Garrett Wilson level producer for four to five rounds cheaper So let's talk trades My favorite bit We were going to talk about Josh Jacobs It's close

But luckily Adams is on the sheet too So do you want Devonthe Adams Or Tony He had to get enough of his shit He's like no we're going here We're going straight there Yeah We had to go right there

Or Tony Pollard Yeah I'm taking Adams now I'm almost up but it's easily Taye it's easily tape for me cool Devonte Adams and a second a 25 second

ambiguous second or Drake London this to me is more interesting Thomas thoughts damn I just realized we're doing Jacobs my bad okay I got ahead of myself I don't know why I started looking at Adams just now but all right that's cool passionate man it's important it's topic

I was really hyped that you know what it is it's because I have Adams first in my player notes. That's what it is. If Kingsbury does this to you. He does. He really, really blows me up here. Oh, God. Now I'm lost.

Adams is in a 25 second or Drake London. Give me, oh man. Yeah. Give me Adams here. Give me Adams here. I would take Adams here. I want Drake London. Yes, same.

Yeah. It's nothing against Adams. Adams has been fantastic. I have plenty of shares of Adams. But yeah. I just don't. So again, when I say the hesitancy in,

in this offense really booming, we can only hope that Drake London comes close to 170 targets. Adams is getting 160 targets no matter what team he plays on. Yeah. Yeah. So. Drake London. I'm sorry.

Drake London is just so insulated though. Like he's just so insulated. He's like 22 years old. I think. I think he is. We're already two years down in his career. Like, he doesn't survive a major injury.

We watched DJ Moore live in the fourth round of startups for five, six years. Yeah, but we, we watch DJ Moore suck ass. And he still lived in the fifth round. He still lived in the fifth round. I think, like,

I don't know. I think, I think Drake London, I think it's pretty easy for me just because, you know, the age insulation. Easy? Oof.

It's easy for me. Just like, he has a lot of insulation. He's like, super young. And just like what he's done through like two years in a metric standpoint, like players like him are never not back in second round startup picks. Like you just like play the hits. You just keep betting on it. Like I would just keep betting on it. Adams is, you know, he's going to be 32 years old. I think his birthday is actually on Christmas Eve.

I think that's what his birthday is. So he turns 32 in season, going into his age 32 season. Adams is one of the greatest receivers ever. One of the best separators. Like I get that. But like father times undefeated. Like it could come whenever. So I think easily for Adams, just because, I mean, easily for Drake London, because Drake London just carries so much value. Like, I could keep Drake London and find another way to get Dornadams. So I want Drake London. Yeah, I wouldn't say the word's easy for me, but at the same time,

I could see which way, I could see if you're thinking long term, London's appealing. I think if you want to win now, I got to happily see Adams going to steal. Like, I don't think it's crazy to think one or the other. But if I'm trying to ensure my value long term, or at least if I'm going to retrade the player, London's probably the guy for me. Yeah, we're just really getting the point where London's teetering on that nesting doll scenario.

By no means, he's right there. Yeah, so that's, I'm just putting him in that spot. Right, now let's get back to another running back, Tom Lee. Let's talk Josh Jacobs. You talked about Cliff Kingsbury. What does that impact Jacobs to you? Anything?

Yeah, so seeing as how Jacobs is a free agent, that I'm not 100% certain, isn't is even coming back but let's let's make a case for why I like Josh Jacobs I actually really like Josh Jacobs this offseason especially at what I think his price is going to maintain until he signs you know Josh Jacobs was still top 20 in target at the position if he had 52 targets he was top 24 in receptions is coming off back-to-back season with 50 plus receptions so even though he was hurt and had a quote unquote down year he was still

providing for you in the receiving game. And we love that. He'll be 26th when the season starts. This is an offense that lacked real identity, dealt with a head coaching change, dealt with a quarterback change, didn't necessarily know if that quarterback change made things better or worse for him.

He is one of the youngest running backs in this porous, I wouldn't say porous free agent class, pretty good free agent class and porous rookie class. He's going to be sought after. We know that he can be a Belkow. He was a top

24 rusher in only 13 games. 20% of his yards came off of explosive runs. So there's some juice in his legs. There's more there's more wiggle left on the field than you would want to. He only forced 35 missed tackles in

2023, but he was also dealing with injuries and yet still managed a very impressive 2.29 yards after contact. He left meat on the bone. He left three expected fantasy points per game. on the field, but it's going to be very rare that you see a former leading rusher who's turning 26 hitting free agency, who is a legit three-down skill set. He's not an LDD. He's not a past

catching specialist. And teens are going to get them at a cheaper price in my opinion because he's coming off an injured year. I'm going to be buying into Josh Jacobs. I'm interested to hear the trades. I have not looked at them. As you can tell by my unknowingness of where we are on the show sheet. I'm trying to avoid it. But I am, I am buying Josh Jacobs. I want to see how,

how well Tom Lee tests my willingness. Yeah, I'm also agreeing on buying Josh Jacobs. I also didn't know he was only 25 still. In my head, he was just, he turns 26 in February. But it's like,

oh, there you go. It feels like he's forever now. Well, that's because some questionable Twitter accounts have hyped them up for so long that people have had burnout. on Josh Jacobs.

Wouldn't have heard of those. Correct. You would not have. Josh Jacobs and a 25 first or CMC, Tom. Man, goes to your heart. You do love a CMC. I do love a Christian McCaffrey. Oh, my God.

The internet might absolutely come for me if I get this incorrect. Do it. Man, this is so team dependent that it's hard to say in a vacuum, right? It really is. But chances are, chances are I'm taking Josh Jacobs in the first. Andy? I want McCaffrey. I hope McCaffrey.

Just because I agree that buying Josh Jacobs right now is a good idea, but I still think you kind of talked a lot about the positives and not about the potential risk. Like he was still, he still was like, you know, somewhat of a plotter this year. He is going to be a second contract running back. And he had, you know, the big year, two years ago and he had like the curse of, you know, 300 or whatever it is.

And it was really bad. So I think like the potential of him like dropping off and being like a pretty dead asset is very possible. And with CMC, it's also possible. He's going to be 28 to start next season, going his 828 season. But the value he gives you a replacement is just like, it's just so, it's like, it's unmatched. I mean, he scores like a quarterback. Yeah. So I, like, so I think, I just think I want McCaffrey there because I can't, like, I can't get, like I can get damn near Justin Herbert value, like point scoring out of him. Yeah, I'm going to change my answer. I'm going to take my favorite.

I did it. I did it. Andy, Andy got me. Andy got me. So I agree. I'm also slightly CMC. Just out of interest, what, what 24 rookie pick would change your mind here? This wasn't the 25 first. This was a startup, sorry, a rookie pick this year. At what point would you look at the Jacob's side seriously? 105. 105. 105.

Yeah, 105. 106, the 107 is like the tear break, right? But 105, there's just something about 106 feels. There's something about looking at a trade and you get 106 out of it that I'm just like, I don't, I don't know what it is. There's just something about seeing the six where I'm just like, yeah. sounds stupid but it's just something about it's it's not aesthetically pleasing to see the six i

don't know what it is clip clip that yeah all right second trade here so this is all about acquiring jacob so tom 108 or josh jacobs don't josh jacobs i'd take josh jacobs there for sure andy yeah i'm the same like as i was looking at it before like you asked me i was kind of starting to think maybe i would want the 108 just because i think i could be like a decent little wide receiver but you're more in the like that's probably like as of we sit right now it's probably like Troy Franklin and he doesn't really like project great in some of the models early so I think I would just take Josh Jacobs even though there is that risk of him like you know possibly falling off but I mean that's a that's a late first I would like I think 108 to one toes late so that's a late

first thing take Josh Jacobs and he's going to sign somewhere as soon as he signs somewhere you could probably get the 25 first and some like you know fun wide receiver you're like so yeah agreed. I think the only counterpoint would be obviously that first exponentially increase in value is what the normal assumption is. I agree with you. This is around about the price I'd go buying. You don't have to do it in the last season, but I think this is a real trade. You could get done pretty comfortably. Okay, let's do one more running back just for time's sake. Yeah. So you pick out of the running backs left. Let's do one more. Let's go with the plotter. The guy who's with the new offensive coordinator. Oh, yeah. My boy from a few years ago, 25 going on 38, Naji Harris. What are we thinking on Naji at the moment? It's funny that you ask. Because I have some information for you.

Let's go. When Matt Canada was relieved of his duties, mercifully, for all Steelers fans, from weeks 12 to 18, Naji Harris forced the second most miss tackles in the league which is kind of crazy he was fourth in the league and rushing now again we mentioned it

he is more of a man in gap scheme runner than a zone scheme runner so we just to see how Smith does deploy them and how he changes but Smith isn't calling all the shots which I like I like that there's a head coach and Tomlin that is

is very much going to be in control here. I think he needs that. But over the back half of the year, Najee Harris was still a top 24 running back, and you're getting them at rounds 9, 10, sometimes an 8, but there's a stink on Najee Harriers. Naji Harriers, oh my God, Najee Harris.

But we are in a buyer beware situation. We don't totally know what's happening, again, with Arthur Smith and a scheme. But I think Arthur Smith is a good coordinator, maybe just an absolutely ass head coach. So we'll see. And to a counterpoint, we also have Jalen Warren here,

who I also am very interested in. He underperformed based on his expected fantasy points per game by nearly three full points. And he was also, some people might think he's better in his own scheme. He was still better in the man gap scheme at a 5.57 yards per carry compared to his 3.22 yards per carry.

Again, zone. but he has a lot of juice and is a three-down skill set. It would be easy to compare Bijan and Alger to Najee and Warren if you just remove the fact that Najee and Warren suck ass compared to Bijan alone. I think they are a little more comparable to Alger. But we know Najee's getting the goal line work and he's going to get 200 touches.

I'm cautiously optimistic in buying Najee Harris. Let's hear the trades. So Najee or D'Andre Swift, straight up. I enjoyed this putting in the sheet. Before I fully get my answer, I want to say, you need to put some respect on Najee a little bit. I have two questions for you, Tom Lee. Where do you think Naji ranks this past season

in breakaway run rate and breakaway runs? Where do you think he was to see if you had to give it a number? Now he was on the field for these runs. These weren't Macca's runs? These are his runs. These are his runs. Where do you think? What do you think you ranked in league, a breakaway run rate in 2020?

I mean, I wouldn't think he's top 12. Would I be safe in guessing he's not top 12? I don't know. No, he wouldn't. He was surprisingly high. I should. I should be safe. in breakaway run rate naji harris was 5.5% which was number 10 in the league and in breakaway runs he was number four in the league of 14 so

just to be clear breakaway is after the line right breakaway is not to the line yeah yeah yes it's 15 yards I'm learning things this is a different this is different in the in Australia you're gonna you're you're you're you're gonna you're gonna trade for naji again don't starving please But as for Swift straight up, Yeah. Man, I just, Give me gnagy. Honestly, give me nausea.

Swift's, even if Swift goes back to Philly, you know he's not touching the ball inside the three yard line. Yeah. I don't care of Kellyn Moore's there, right? It's just going to be Tush push all day. Jalen Hertz, even before Tush Push was rushing in 10 plus rushing touchdowns. His upside is completely.

capped. They do not use him as a pass catcher. Just like the lions didn't use him as a pass catcher as much as we wanted. Give me Najee, guaranteed 200 touches in a hopefully better offense. Probably getting 8 to 10 touchdowns. I'll take Najee straight up here, but I feel gross about it. Andy? Yeah, I want Najee too because you look at like DeAndre Swift, like this past season with Eagles, he kind of was what we think Najee was, right?

Like he had, he was the number one running back in the NFL as far as, you know, more on being reliant on what's blocked for him, number one in the league. So he was like, you know, he's not making anybody miss, not bringing any tackles anymore. Like he's just, you know, straight like if he gets you five yards, you need five yards, I get you three yards. So I think, I think I want nausea because I don't feel good about Swift's future at all. I mean, he could sign back with Eagles. And like Tom said, I mean, he's getting tush push to oblivious.

at the goal line. He's not seeing the ball at all. He doesn't catch the ball anymore with Jalen Hertz because they just really wanted to use one of my former, former crushes, Kenny Gaywell. They just wanted to use him on third down all the time. So I think I just want Nausee just because at least like we're betting on who's going to get more touches. Neither player is very talented at this point. Maybe a couple years ago we thought D'Andre Swift was very talented. He seems like he might not be. So I just want I want nausea there pretty easily. this point, which is upsetting. I'm the same with you. I think Swift pops on film because the highlights in small

snippets look at the game. You're like, man, this was like 6.7 points. And Najee got in on a, you know, goal line drive and score more points. So realistically, this year, it's not, it's not that different. Naji has hope for next year. Like you said, he looked more explosive finally. But, you know, the bar was very low for that. So I'm with you guys. I think Naji presents a little more security, but also some hope, which is, nice the second trade for this uh naji or the 201 so i'm your favorite pick give me naji you're you're getting it like in my opinion a locked in rb2 for 201 that's that's that's that's pretty good unless your 201 is like a natural 201 and your team is dog water

yeah that's important to keep in mind then i i don't want him yeah and i don't want it Yeah, this one's kind of tough for me too Because I think I got a little more love for the 201 than you Because I'm looking at like I think for the most part Like Naji's gonna have to If you have Naji and you want to sell him Like the probably like the key trade

Is probably you're just gonna take like a blind second in 25 So if I have Naji and I get off for the 201 I'll be honest I probably just take it I think I just accept it to just kind of like Get rid of that Because if I like I said if I have the 201 I probably don't need Naji Because I T is probably pretty bad

So I think I just want Naji that I would just want to go on that. That's what I'm saying. If it's a natural 201, then, then, then, and you need that 201, then I want the 201.

If it's a 201 that you've just acquired, then yes. In a, like, I would make that move. But I feel like that's important to distinct like Andy said. If your team is actually that bad

that you have a natural 201, don't trade that 201 for nausea hears. Yeah, I agree. I think it's, it's, it's nausey for me at the moment, unless you are absolutely bullshit.

All right, wide receivers. Let's wrap this thing up. So the biggest question presents itself with this player. Is Stefan Diggs dust or is he not? Because if he's dust and the trades don't matter, if he's not dust and the trades are interesting, Tom. Yeah, I want Tankdell here. I want Tankdell here.

The first trade is Diggs or Tankdell, right? So one provides hope, optimism, and awesomeness for C.J. Stroud. the other I don't know what happened this year so hmm Andy yeah I want tank Dell I think like Joe Brady's back this is a problem yeah I think a first needs to be on the dig

side to get tanked out at this point honestly so I don't think they're like comparable players at all just straight up to to be honest I mean tank Dell go ahead Tom I was going to say a trade like this is like somebody that oh well tank Dell's hurt Nico Collins is him

tank Dell did live on touchdowns which we know isn't sticky. So I can see how somebody narratives their way into like, oh, well, Diggs is going to bounce back. He's probably going to ask to get traded. He's going to go to the chiefs. He's going to be dope as hell as if anyone thinks the bills are going to make it deal with the chiefs. But I can see that there's a narrative that somebody could talk themselves into

for making this trade, and I would not make it. Yeah. Yeah, this trade, to be clear, was made in season towards the middle of December. So, yeah, you can see how it happens. but I'm with you guys, Tank Dell. It's just more fun to have him on your team. I'm more excited about putting Dell on top of a lot. Why the fuck was he in blocking at the goal line?

It's just so stupid. So stupid. Dumb. That's why Sloics not a head coach this year. That's why Slowick's not a head coach this year. That's a decision. He's like, maybe I need to learn to not do that.

I'm going to stick around. Stupid. Yeah, that might be nice. Well, this might be more up your alley than Tom. So digs are the 110. We're talking pretty late in the draft here versus what could be a top 12 wide receiver. I'll start with Andy.

No, I'll start with Tom. No, no, go ahead, Andy. I'm starting with Tom. No, I push the buttons here. I make the decision, so go ahead. I'm doubling to give in to the next person. I think my mic, but I, like I'm mute. I can't, I'm K-Qa-Qa-a-a-alli every time.

All right, all right. I'm just losing it. I don't know. Something's going wrong. to glare. All right. Knock it off. All right.

I'll go. I got, I'm going to take the 110. I'm going to take the 110. Because I think at this point, at this point in the off season, the 110 is just worth more. I don't have to draft that pick. I don't have to keep that pick. I just, it's just a better, more liquid asset. I think I think I mean, Diggs isn't going to gain much value.

I mean, if this is first half stuff on Diggs, I want stuff on Diggs. But from what we saw, even in the playoffs, too, I mean, he was still like, I think he had like one game is like five for 80 the first year of playoffs so yeah I think I just I want the 110 at least because it might give me more flexibility do something else with the 110 maybe get you know a player that is like Stefan diggs but actually projects to score some points that we can rely on so I'll take the like quentin Johnson like I'm thinking yeah that's what like that's like getting it like it's going to be like Jonathan Brooks Brian Thompson Jr like third round fourth round Blake Corum Trey Benson

Xavier worthy Like I just Give me the next three years Of like high and wide receiver to Stefan Diggs Like if you have the 110 You are in contention Yeah right So give me

Give me Diggs Like I just don't want the 110 at this point And the minute Diggs has a big game You're you're doubling it and passing it on to the next person See, Andy, I'm hip and cool too. I watch TikTok. Yeah, this is not to bash Andy, but I cannot let Stefan Diggs go for the 110.

No, bash him. Bash it's the first time. I'm in Australia, you know, things are pretty good. It's midday here on the second of February, you know. I'm already ahead and rub it in. It feels like punching down. You can say I'm a big deal.

I'm not anyway. with you so it's fine. No, yeah, I'm not, I'm not taking the 110. Admittedly, in a lot of leagues, I own the 110, which said, yeah, doesn't back up Tom's theory that I'm the best dynasty player who's ever seen because I keep coming third. It's not great. Third place. Exactly right.

All right. Let's go into the last guy. Debo Samuel. Last guy before we get out of here. Yeah. The hotness. The man who peaked and then was a bit flat and then peaked again in the season and, You know, this is a guy who's being traded head-to-head for C.D. Lamb two years ago, right?

This is like, that's, that's where we're at. But Debo Samuel, the 108. Funny that you talked about Debo Samuel, because I have some information for you. Well. If they had a 20.5% target share or higher, only Deonté Johnson and Marquis Brown had fewer receptions than Debo of players that had 20.5% target shares or more. That's not good. He played four points above expected in San Francisco's up. offense that had overproduced and expected fantasy points.

He played it a 13.1 fantasy points per game to his 13.1 or 13.7 expected fantasy points per game in a strange 2022 season. 2022 is weird. Okay, that's where we got the end of the year, Brock Purdy, but a little bit of Trey Lance, a little bit of Garoppolo. But it's not the first time Debo has played far above his expected fantasy points. In 2021, he averaged 21.3 points per game to his 14.7 expected fantasy points per game. Debo Samuel is a player in an offense that is built to overperform.

He's 28 years old. He looked incredibly healthy. He gave you an additional 1.5 fantasy points with his rushing. And if you are in a league with a setting that is becoming more and more popular, which is points per rushing attempt. He increases his value there as well. What you're realistically getting is a wide receiver that has a 12 to 14 point per game floor and a 30 to 35 point upside any given week.

So I like Debo. I am buying him. I am again anxiously awaiting you to test me to the brink. So let's hear it. 108 or Debo. Oh, 108. What a spiel. We had it.

This is the guy. 14 points to 30 points. The future is 28. He's explosive. he's on the best offense, arguably, depending on who you support. Yeah. I'm still going to take,

so Debo is also a guy that could look very different as he progresses. So I'm still going to take 108 because I think that Debo's price doesn't have a chance to go up here. I don't think there's any situation where he's a chance to go up.

Yeah. Whereas 108, like I know we're taking a big shit on this class. But one, like, 108 to 110 is a big difference to me. Yeah. Well, as soon as the draft happens, we always know there's going to be guys that shoot up and push the tears down. Yeah.

It's not we're saying 107 is going to become the new 101. We're never going to say that. If Blake Corum does get, like what if Blake Corum does go somehow in the second round of the Chargers? It goes in the early third round. Like I know I just joked about like Blake Corm at 110 and how I would prefer Stefan Diggs, but I would prefer Stefan Diggs to Debo still.

Yeah. So, like, I know he had a really bad end of the year with Joe Brady. I don't think that's the whole story. I think maybe there was an injury there. I think just things just shifted a little bit. I can't buy that Stefan Diggs just died midway through 2023. So maybe this is just a little bit of bias for me, but I'll take 108 here, even though it may not make total sense, but I'll take 101 here.

I think just quickly on that Bill's offense as well, the amount of picks that Josh Allen started throwing as winter hit became a real concern. So like taking shots down field was no longer a priority. It's we need to get this team to the playoffs and try to win it. Like it just completely changed. Yeah, but remember, you're not allowed to call Josh Allen out for throwing interceptions. He's still an elite passer of the football,

according to everybody, even though he's actually kind of shitty at playing quarterback. He just rushes for 12 to 15 touchdowns. Yeah. Anyone have offended with those statements. I retract them from the future. Yeah, it's right better. Andy.

Yeah, I think I want the 108 because with Deba, I think he's 28 years old. He just turned 28. I think he's another player that maybe people look at as a little younger than he is. I think his 28 means a little more than other people's 28 because we do have to look at how he scores his points. Like, right, he is, I mean, he's a running back a little. You know, he gets the carries and he was wide receiver in 95 or 92 and average up a target. So he works around a line of scrimmage. he's very prone to injury, more prone to injury,

like more prone to injury than a normal receiver with the way he's utilized. And the way he's more a lot of funnierves. Yeah. So, and like I say, he's 20 years old. And I just think, I think it's easier to want to wait because I don't see him going up and I just worry about his age because I worry about how he's going to, just how he ages because, like I said, the way he's used. I keep competing myself.

But I just, once some of his athletic ability goes away, like I don't know if he can just wait. like I don't know if he can just win strictly like on the boundary as a receiver like which I know he did show you know I had 1,400 receiving yards two years ago and he was like like you said the 90s squad receiver 3 but I'm not sure he can he's going to age as gracefully as you know like Stefan diggs even has so yeah it's a tear break for me so yeah I think the interesting thing is you said at the start of this show that you are ages and I'm thinking well I'm 31 Tay Adams is 31 we're the same person One of us has a done is They're back on. One's earning millions of dollars. I can also push Cameron over. It's all sorts of skills that I have. The last trade that we found was the 25 first, an ambiguous 25 first and second, or

Debo Samuel. Does a future matter to you? We mentioned the trade of a future before, Tom, but let's just recap one more time. I think I'm taking the two picks here. I think Debo is the type of player that you can buy in season. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. I agree.

I agree. It's the two picks, honestly, by far. It's not really common. You can get a trade like that off in a league. So I'm taking, especially for a receiver like him. Yeah. I think the only way it does happen is like you said earlier, people are just more flipping with 25s or even 26es than they should be. So you can see it happen. You do see it happen. But I'm with you guys. I think the picks are the way to go at the moment. Even though Debo is fantastic for a large part of the end of that year, actually pushed Tom well into our playoffs in the league of record. And maybe, very scary to play. Man, I gotta tell you. It was Lee record. It was me versus Tom Lee for the rights to go to the finals. He had Brock Purdy. He had Brock Purdy and Kittal, I believe. And I had Christian McCaffrey in Debo.

And let me tell you, I needed Brock Purdy to absolutely implode. And boy did he ever. My God. Thank you, Christian McCaffrey. who still got it done against the Ravens and thank you to the 15 targets I think Debo got in that game to secure me that.

Yeah. Shout out. Shout out. Absolutely love it. Shout out Sam Darnold for helping Debo get over the hump there. For memory, Brockford, he needed to score eight points.

Yeah. And he was benched on five because he threw four picks. Yeah. Truly just unbelievable. For me, I needed it. Still haven't won the League of record, but we moved up from third to second this year after, you know, three or four

straight years. That's going to do it. That's the show a bit longer than we wanted to, but we, we talked about coaching, which you normally wouldn't have done. So subtract 20 minutes. I think we did pretty good. Just listen at 1.5 if you're, you know, that's how we do. I should put that at the beginning of the show, not the end.

But anyway, that's the point. Let's get some final thoughts. And then we can get on out of here. Tom Lee. Brilliant. Final thoughts, as we used to do, I normally bring a little bit of Ozzy vernacular back again. And today's special treat for you guys is struth.

So what do you think struth means? I think it's a stroll. I think it's like going out for a strut and having a strut, but it's a struth.

Interesting. Andy, thoughts? I think it means going out for a drink. Is this going to be your best for everything, Australian? Because there are a lot of things in Australia to go out for a drink. he'll get one right eventually probably every second way no truth is an expression of surprise or disappointment

so if you happen to cross something that's oh strew that's where it belongs is it like that's that's pretty strewth no no it's surprising it's more it's like it's like a oh my god like it's a reactionary word oh gotcha so it's not a describing word oh truth okay yeah it's an exclamation of sorts okay got it

I love this so much because I always learn new stuff it's so amazing Andy final thoughts truth I didn't know it's up yet I thought you were going perfect perfect oh amazing

look my final thoughts are always the same fantasy football is supposed to be fun remember that and have a great time remember there's other people on the side of your screens when you're out there yelling and talking all your shit remember there's still people remember to check in on your loved ones, even if you're not sure that they need it. Remember that clear eyes, full hearts can never lose in your best days.

We will see you same bad time, same bad channel next week. Good night, everybody.