Fantasy Football Daily - Positional Value, Surplus Value, and the Concept of "Reaches and Steals" | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: May 1, 2023

With the 2023 NFL Draft in the books, Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) review the weekend with an eye to how we discuss the Draft through the concepts of positional value, surplus value, and knocking teams for "reaches" and praising them for "steals." It's a nuanced discussion you don't want to miss on the FIFTIETH EPISODE of On the Clock! BRETT WHITEFIELD'S 2023 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT GUIDE IS FREE TO READ WITH A NO-CHARGE LOGIN AT FANTASY POINTS. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. We are back with another episode of On the Clock. I am joined today by Christopher Wecht. What's going on, Chris? Not much coming off the draft. It's finally over all the.

It feels like it comes so quick and then it's over so fast. But now we actually know a lot of these teams look like. We get a picture into what teams actually think of where they are in their team building and what they're trying to do moving forward. It's exciting. This is a post-draft pod, the first one for us. All three days of drafting are done. So we want to get into team building discussions and then like draft value discussions.

There's a lot of discourse on the Twitter right now about positional value, surplus value. Is there such a thing as a steal, how impactful our reaches, things of that nature? So we'll get into some of that, talk about the classes we like the most. Chris, before we do that, though, I do want to get into a little bit of business here. So obviously, guys, on the clock is a daily draft podcast and we're no longer in draft season. but we have decided the podcast will remain. It will not be daily though, probably starting sometime next week. We will not be a daily pot anymore, but we will keep it going through the college football season into draft season, probably one episode a week, maybe occasional bonus episodes here and there.

But for the most part, we'll be a weekly podcast from now until next year's draft season. Also, coming up on the site, I'm going to be doing an article. talking about you know all the my favorite picks breaking down each draft class I'll be doing a way too early 2024 mock as well

because those get all the clicks and then I think Chris do you have anything coming up on the site just still doing the best ball stream XFL is winding down but best ball mania four launch so that we're fully in best ball season now so every Wednesday Scott Barrett

Thomas Tipple and I will draft a stream live Wednesdays 7.30 p.m. Eastern, so be sure to tune in to that. Yeah, that's awesome. Maybe you guys will let me join you for one more of those now that we have some landing spots for these rookies. But cool. And then, you know, more importantly or most importantly of everything going on at fantasy points, our data package is launching very soon. Consumer package. I don't have a date yet, but I know it is soon. I'm trying to push the development team to launch it today. I don't think that I think we're probably close somewhere between now and a month out, hopefully, you know, sooner the better.

But obviously, we don't want to release something that's buggy or that isn't perfect. So anyways, that's going to be huge. That's going to be a game changer. I know we've been talking it up for almost a year now, Chris. And so this is like a really exciting moment for us to get that out and on the market. All right. Draft. Chris, how tired were you after?

Probably not as tired as me, I suppose. but no yeah you were definitely probably more tired uh day after day two you know waking up on saturday was you know a little tiring because you know you got the back to back thinking about the draft you know trying to go to bed and you're just thinking about all the different landing spots and everything but but you know it's it's a fun tired because you're like excited about it yeah yeah i was i was exhausted um when we wrap the show on friday night and we're like in the You know, stream yard kicks you back to like the green room or whatever. We were kind of like doing our closing thoughts.

And producer Thomas and Scott decided to have like a 17 minute long conversation. And I'm just like, guys, my head is pounding. I got to freaking go. I need some sleep badly. But yeah, it was a great, excellent weekend. What, let's dive into the value stuff. And I know a lot of this conversation is centering around the Detroit Lions, of course. unironically there being that I'm a Detroit guy.

But when I take a step back, Chris, and look at their draft class as a whole, I'm like, damn, they killed it. And even if you look at our total value chart, they come out number one there too. So they do on number one total value. No, obviously they also lost the most value. Yeah, Hooker will do a lot because you had Hooker pretty high up on your board and getting branch. Yeah.

And branch too. Yep, that's true as well. But even, yeah, I mean, it's kind of crazy. Yeah, so it is funny. They sit. So they maneuvered the board really well. I will say that about them. They, you know, moving from 6 to 12, well, we didn't love the pick of Jemir Gibbs there.

I felt like they maneuvered the board well, picked up some, some surplus value there, getting the 34th overall pick, which they then spent on same Laporta. And then they also traded back again twice. They made five trades on draft day, or day one and two. So all five of those trades, most of them were dropping back. They did move up to get Hendon Hooker eventually, which was a massive surplus ad because of the position and all that stuff. But ultimately, when you put in context, the hall they got, they got six day one and day two players that all scored pretty highly for me. The worst pick was Broderick Martin, who was like number 147 on my board.

He gets killed by small school bias in my scoring system. Defensive tackles from small schools don't pan out at a super high rate, but his tape is really freaking good. So it's like, you know, I don't hate that pick. They also had a need there. But man, like, I guess the long story here is like when you maneuver the board successfully, it can make up for some positional value losses, I guess. I'm like, how do you feel about that? Like, I don't know if you follow Kev Cole,

but he's been tweeting incessantly about positional value and surplus value and all this stuff. Yeah, yeah, I've seen a bunch of what he's been talking about recently on Twitter. It's, so I don't have a problem with, I still have a problem with the way they approach the first round. Unfortunately, there, for those that don't know, there's, there's pace, basically a rookie wage scale based off where they're picked

and every pick in the first round drops another chunk of change all the way down, and then as you get into the later rounds, it kind of flattens out and whatnot. But when you take Gibbs at 12 and you take Campbell at 18 of running back and a linebacker, you're just putting them in positions that they have to succeed right away and be awesome. And I love what they did in the later rounds, but it just opportunity cost is a thing. Like they could have drafted something else in the first round, two other guys in the first round, and they could have smashed this draft. And while, you know, I'm sure they're thinking, you know, we got guys that were all high on our board. We got four top 50 players for us or something.

I don't know where they actually had them ranked. The problem is you, that's not actually how you build winning teams long term because you need, you need to be opt. It's so hard, especially with how expensive quarterback contracts are getting these days, unless you're on a rookie QB deal, you have zero wiggle room in terms of how you're using your cash elsewhere. I mean, look at the Chiefs. They had to win with basically nothing at receiver. They had multiple rookie corners starting this past year. That's not easy to do it again, too.

Yeah, and they're going to have to do it again. all those guys will be like a year further along they did add rishi rice but they didn't bring in any top guys they didn't bring in any veterans like they're running it back with the same crew plus rashi you know yeah and the and the lions unfortunately don't have a rookie qb they just drafted one but we have no idea if he's any good or not so when you're still figuring out if you have a guy and you don't have them on and you have whether you have them on the rookie deal or not you've got to be building as if we want to be able to smash our window when we finally think it's there and we have a QV. Now, if Hooker is awesome and who knows, like plays down the stretch and he's awesome

or something this year, then yeah, they may be in a really good spot, but it's just, it's just a really small hole to fit, you know, thread the needle for. Yeah. I think the biggest, the best argument against what the lines that isn't actually positional value, it's surplus value. It's the, what you just said with the contract. So like Gibbs and Campbell basically both slot in above the market average for second contract for those positions. Yeah. So Gibbs will be,

his total contract will be like 19 million, give or take. Which is more than what David Montgomery just got. Yeah. That is more than, yeah, more than Montgomery. It's more than it's the,

it would be 11th in the NFL right now in total value. What about Jack Campbell? Campbell Jack So and that's the thing Right so And that's the thing right so for Gibbs is already the top 12 back in the NFL and pay They already have David Montgomery who's also a top 12 back in terms of pay

So it's like Gibbs basically can't miss Like you cannot miss that pick because of how high you took him Because there's no surplus value to be had So they have to get basically excellent play out of him just to hit net zero. I do think you got Campbell's number yet? Yeah, I got it. So funny enough, he'll also be 11th.

He'll be. He's one spot ahead of him. He's at 18 million. Campbell's number will be somewhere around 15, 16 million. And that's what that's, I guess, the funniest part or the most challenging thing about those two picks is they did resign Anzolone to a decent second, third contract for him, but really second contract. He was year to year between rookie deal and now.

And then Gibbs, or sorry, Montgomery, same thing, a big second contract. And then they, so they did that thinking, well, now they don't have to prioritize those positions in the draft. They did anyways. So it's like, yeah, I mean, shoot, you have two rookies making the same thing. Those were the two most expensive players they signed in the offseason where Montgomery and Campbell, or sorry, Montgomery. I'm mixing up all the games already. Montgomery, and Zolone, and then Cam Sutton, obviously, too. but the point being like they're those both those guys have to hit and even if they do you're still

you're still working with a net zero there yeah because no surplus value being added yeah so you're already a top half of the league player and then assuming you ideally you draft these guys because you want them to sign them to a second contract now you're now you make them a top five player at their present you you've gained no value that was my next point in those draft and drafting these guys where you did when you draft jemar chase like the bengals did where they drafted him, he gets, you know, he's a steal for four, for five years. He costs them nothing compared to what he's going to cost them on a second deal. You don't, you're just not getting that with these positions.

Yeah, and that was my next point is second contracts for both these guys now are going to be. So there's a bunch of studies done about draft position correlating to second contract. I just going to say that. I don't have any numbers on that, but it feels that way, but it sounds like you have them. Yeah, most of the studies. that have been done are they're so conclusive it's ridiculous and no one's like bothered to redo them but they're like five years old i think kev cole actually is one who did one but um that it's so like for you for second third and fourth round picks you have to outperform your draft status by

so much to get a big second contract it's crazy for first round picks you literally can flop and you will still get a mat you can still like tremaine embins is a great example he he was good for like half of a on his rookie deal and got this massive contract. Jack Campbell's going to be looking at the same thing. As long as he doesn't completely bust, you're going to have to give him a raise at the end of five years. And it's like you're already paying him top 12 money. So if he plays what?

Like if he just plays, not even plays well, plays 75% of the snaps of his first four or five years. Starter. Yeah. Team captain even. He'll get a big second deal. Exactly.

Yeah, I mean. So that's the tough part to stomach. All in all, though, I feel like they did crush it enough on day two that it kind of made up for a lot of that. So I think the thing that's tough for me, too, is it's easy, like the positional value argument is easy to make for someone like Kev who isn't evaluating players. It's really easy to say, oh, you should throw a dart at Miles Murphy instead of Jack Campbell, or you should have drafted JSN instead of Jemir Gibbs. when you're not actually doing the evaluations. Like if you as a scouting team, they're not looking at consensus mock draft,

and that's what all these studies are based on, unfortunately. These teams don't care. I listened to Ross Tucker this morning. Ross was saying he knows for a fact, five teams were going to take Jack Campbell in the 20s. Consensus board had him at like 40-something. Yeah. So if you wanted Jack Campbell, then you had to take him where they take him.

And you can make the argument, let somebody else make that mistake. But if you're convinced this is just draft class isn't deep. If you're convinced that he's so much safer than a Miles Murphy or a Collijah Cancy because of what he can do versus what those guys can't do, then it's really easy as a team to convince yourself this is the better pick. Well, this is where safety is the real enemy here. And GMs and coach and organizations that feel like their job security is safe,

don't make these pick. Like, yeah, like Howie Roseman doesn't make this pick because he knows his job is secure. He's not going over. Belichick makes picks that we perceive as bad, which they actually do look bad right now.

But he knows he's not going anywhere, so he's not afraid to miss on a guy. Yep. The team that, I mean, that is just why good organizations will stay good because they're willing to take swings on things like that. Yep.

Yeah, Ross also said he knows of at least five teams in the first round that would, of taking Gibbs, the highest one. He confirmed Bruegler's report that the Jets were in on him. He said he talked to the Jets staff. That was true. They were in on Gibbs.

Now, like I said, you could just say, well, let the Jets take him then. We're fine. But you do all the work to set up your board, and that's the way it looks. It's, you know. But yeah, I do agree, though, that safety can be the enemy. Because if you draft the Miles Murphy at 18, and he turns into an above average pass rusher, there's a ton of surplus value there versus Jack Campbell,

who now has to basically play at his ceiling to even, you know, get close to a value, you know. Do you think one thing with the running backs in particular, do you think this is a one-year thing or in just the way that the draft clack was? Or do you think the NFL is now swinging back a little bit towards running backs? No, I do think Gibbs and Bijan were special. Like, I do firmly believe that. Bejohn got all of the pre-draft type because he is the generation. guy, but I even went back and looked through all my scores. Gibbs was my highest scored running back since Sequin Barclay.

It's like he was special in that regard. If you stack up my top eight running backs over the last nine years, Gibbs was like seventh on that list. So like I do think that you just had a draft with two special guys. We've had a bunch of drafts in a row without any special guys. Like, Najee Harris had no business being a first round pick. Josh Jacobs had no business being a first round pick. I'm trying to think of- Shot Penny.

Who shot Penny had no business being a first round. C.H. Yeah. Oh, God. C.E.H. I mean, he was a fourth round grade for me. That was a luxury pick for the Chiefs. Yeah.

Granted. I, like, John Taylor was close to a first round grade for me. I think he was like an 85-5 for me. Swift was like right there too in 85. Gibbs was like an 871, which is just under a first-round grade for me. He was a top 30 player on the board. So I'm also notoriously harsh on running backs because of the positional value. Like I baked that into my scores too.

But yeah, no, I don't think there's any swing. On the contrary, I've heard people say that, you know, the NFL is cyclical. We went so past heavy the last few years. Now it will start to come back around because, as you see with teams like the Eagles, teams like shoot even-the-lines, the Lions, the 49ers, especially if you have an offense that can truly put defenses in conflict, and you get those favorable box counts, you can, like running the ball actually produces really good results.

You can talk about EPA all day to you're blue in the face, but the point of the game is to score more points than your opponent, not to score the most points. Exactly. But yeah, when you look at the way the rest of the class fell off the board, I would say that that suggests that unless you're special, they don't really value you. Because when the next one came off, late second round.

Charbonnet, right? Carbon A, right? Carbon A 54, I think. to Seattle. And A-Chain was back of the second. Seattle's another team there that prioritizes the run more than most teams. Like this is what they do.

Yep. Yeah, when did A-Chain? Oh, no. To Bigsby and Miller went before. Yeah, Miller was early third. Tage Spears was early third. Yeah, A-Chane didn't go till... He went to pick-21 third round. Bigsby went pick-25 third round. Okay, gosh it.

Yeah. Yeah, there it is. But so, I mean, my scores were actually pretty close. I had nine, nine day one and day two players. I think seven went, and then Roshan went early day three. So there was about eight. I was pretty close there. The only guy that surprised me was Israel, Ebenakanda, with how far he fell.

Yep. I want to know. There's got to be a story to that just because the measurables are so insane. But, um, anyways, what were some classes you like? Like, we're going to avoid Philly because that's the obvious one. Everyone loves them. Especially when you factor in the trade for Swift and all that. They had a great weekend.

I really like what the Colts did. You know, you get Anthony Richardson, obviously, you've talked plenty about how much you like him. You get him as the third key, he'd be off the board. Julius Brent's in the second round. Josh Downs in the third. Some other notable ones. Daniel Scott, the safety from California in the fifth. Will Maui in the fifth.

Even Evan Hall in the fifth, I think is solid value. It just kind of seemed like they, uh, uh, at a to me, Miwa Atoway in the fourth is also awesome. Yeah. Like, just break this down real quick.

Quarterback. Corner. Wide receiver. Tackle. Pass rusher. Corner. Cover safety. Pass catching tight end.

Pass catching running back. You want to talk about a team that did the opposite of what the lines did. They literally drafted for positional value the entire way through the draft. Yeah. Every single player they drafted has past game implications here. It's actually insane. The Atabwari pick in the fourth round is one of my favorites of the entire draft. I don't like Josh Downs that much, but I said on the live stream, this is a fantastic fit for him.

Yeah, in the third round and for the how he fits into the offense does seem like a very good fit. Darius Rush in the fifth. He was a guy that Bruegler and Zerlain were touting late in the process as a potential day two guy. Yeah, now I don't I don't know that I'm willing to throw the label steel out I the studies on that are pretty interesting I don't know if you've seen yeah it's not actually yeah it's because like you said earlier the mutton it's all based off consensus big boards which aren't actually a thing They're not actual evaluations yeah so usually when a guy falls in the draft

you know thinking about this in hindsight it's weird that he he understands that when it comes to steals but doesn't understand that when it comes to reaches by he I mean kev but yeah so usually when a guy falls with the fifth round there's a reason I remember Omane Uirare is a great example

he was like my third corner that year I had a late first round grade on him and he goes in the fifth round and then he had like moments on his rookie deal where he looked good but for the most part he was bad right so like the NFL was correct about that right

right and everyone literally every draft grader out there gave the lines an A plus plus plus for that pick. It was one of the best picks of the draft, and he had like an eight game stretch where he looked like a functional player. Right. I mean, yeah, so whatever.

And then when you look at the rest of their draft class, the Colts, that is, like, Daniel Scott, he's an interesting player because he didn't really have a position until this year. Will Mallory, you know, he's a one-trick pony kind of, like he's not going to give you much in the run game. So him falling to the fifth round, like I said, I'm not. going to call it a steal, but it makes sense why he was there. All, same thing.

Like, not really a good runner, but he's a good receiver. Oh, they drafted three corners. Geez, Jalen Jones. Yeah, their corner room's pretty bare. Outside of who's the guy they move into the slot all the time that I'm... Kenny Moore? Kenny Moore, yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, I like the Colts draft, Chris. another one I liked, and I don't hear enough people talking about this draft, was the Arizona Cardinals. And we give Cardinals. I loved their draft. We give them grief a lot. No, I'm not going to get, their day three picks were pretty mad at best. But you just look at the top six guys they took, Paris, John.

So for one, they got a ton of future draft capital trading back to 12. Then obviously they gave some of that back to get the six. to get an elite tackle prospect in Parr's Johnson, Jr. They come back with a really good pass rusher in B.J.O. Jolari in the second round. A really good corner in the third round with Garrett Williams. And a really good receiver, one of my favorite receivers in the class, Michael Wilson in the third round, again, prioritizing, like valuable premium positions. Clayton Tune in the fifth round, I thought that was a good pick.

I think he's a really good quarterback. He has a chance to start for them because Kyler Murray's coming back from the ACL and they're what do they got, David Blow and Colt McCoy or something? Yes, it's not. Yeah, they used multiple guys. Or McSorley, right? Isn't he there? Oh, yeah, he did go there, didn't he?

Yeah. John Gaines, the guard from UCLA, perfect for their scheme and what they want to do. Guys, a mauler. I really, really liked their draft. And on our value chart, they, what, they scored ninth? No, eighth. Eighth highest value. Yeah, I like what they did.

I do, I don't love the trade back up for Paris Johnson. I, like, I don't know if Paris Johnson's that much better than whatever tackle they could have drafted at 12 to warrant trading back up. But, you know, like, if he's that much higher on their board, then it is what it is. I do like how much draft capital they accumulated by trading back throughout the draft. Do you know how many what their picks are in 2024 right now? No. So they've got their first, the Texans first. their second, three third round picks, their fourth round pick, two fifth round picks, a sixth and a seventh.

And I think this actually, I think they may have added a few more. They've got like double digit draft picks next year with multiple, you know, day one, day two picks from other teams. That's freaking fantastic. Yeah. Do you think that's a we're playing for a new QB thing or just we see what Kyler does and then we flood him with talent around him? It's basically, hey, we're prepared for whatever situation we're in. If Kyler comes back at some point this year and tears it up with a new offensive coordinator that isn't a corpse, then yeah, they're probably out of the QB market.

If he stinks, it doesn't get right, we got tons of ammo. We can go get whoever we want. I freaking love that. I will say, though, Jonathan Gannon might be the biggest lame duck head coach of all time. Yes. And this guy is like a pathological liar at this point. Do you, so we saw the tampering thing the night before, no, the night of the draft, like a little bit before the draft. So the Eagles basically say, hey, well, you know, we'll let this go.

You let us, you know, we move up in the third round, whatever. Literally there was reports of him not knowing he was going to be interviewing for the Cardinals head coach job until after how he told him after they lost the Super Bowl. but clearly he already had conversations with the Cardinals. And then he's doing his press conference with Cardinals media before the draft and saying how the Eagles media and fans wanted me fired after we were 9 and 0, which they never were because they already lost the game. They said it on to do that nobody was calling for Gannon to ever be fired last year. And then he was the only coach that did zero press conferences after each day of the draft.

Don't you think that's weird? That is weird. I was majorly suspect of him when he gets to the Arizona compound for the first time. And he sees Kyler Murray. He runs down the ball. That video is so weird. Bro, there's a scene in friends where Renona Ryder makes a cameo. And her and Jennifer Anderson were like best friends in high school.

And they do that thing where they're like jump it up and down. Go yeah. That's like what Kyle and John Gannon they're doing. I was like, what do you guys, former two leaders together? Like, what the heck? That was a super suspect scene. So I was like, yeah, he's, he's lame duck. They're, they're literally forcing him to do this right now for the camera.

Yeah, it's, he is, I'm not upset that he is no longer with the Eagles. Yeah. Oh, from a, yeah, yes. I mean, he, he, for how much talent he had in that defense, he did everything he could to make it useless. I know. Yeah. Yeah.

Now, being a head coach is a lot different to being a coordinator. Maybe head coach is a better spot for him. We'll find out quickly, I'm sure. All right. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Chris, I loved their draft. Did you like your draft? Yeah, I did. I'm just remembering some of them.

Pick 14, Brodwick Jones. Pretty much a lot of people had that mocked correctly. We knew they were going to go tackle for the most part. Pick first one or first pick of the second round, Joey Porter Jr., low-hanging. fruit of the draft. Great pick. Pick 18 of the second round,

Keanu Benton, this is one of my dudes at D-Tackle. This dude is a Pittsburgh Steeler. Like he just, all the physical traits of an interior guy they love. Rines me a lot of Cam Hayward actually. Sneaky pass for a skill set. Got some rawness to him.

You know, his pad level gets a little high at times. Doesn't always, you know, doesn't keep the hand-fighting battle going. But he's a monster. And then Darno Washington at pick three, or pick 30 of round three. A lot of people are calling this the steal of the draft. Now, again, I'm not sure about the word steel there, but shoot, that's a great

complimentary skill set to Pat Fryer with. Yeah, yeah. For, I mean, he's going to be blocking a lot. Yep. To say that's your job, son. Go open up lanes for Najee Harris. Which in hindsight, if that is what his role was going to be with the team, he was never had a shot at being like a first round pick.

100% agreed. I mean, this is why I've been, I've been torn on him because if he's going to play it as combine weight, things are different. But I think the tales of time have shown us guys lose weight for the combine to run faster, and then they go back to their normal weight. Because usually the guys, guys aren't really on strict.

They have a natural weight they play at. They don't fluctuate a lot, you know, unless a team has a goal for them that they have to hit. So I think Washington's probably like a 280-pound player, and he's just not going to be a good receiver. at that weight. Then Nick Herberg

pick 30 in the fourth round. Now, I don't usually get super excited about fourth round picks, but this guy, I mean, I had a really hard time in the scoring process with knowing what to do with him because he's 6-2-2-40 pounds, but if there's one team that uses those guys insanely well, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They love to get crazy with their linebacker blitzing packages and stuff. I wonder if they're going to put them off the ball or if he's going to be one of those undersized edges they like? Yeah. Is he replacing because Alex Highsmith was basically the same size when they drafted him. Yep. So,

anyways, I do dig that. Then Corey Trice in the seventh round, this is the most puzzling player situation of the whole draft. Why did he fall to the seventh round? I haven't heard anything. I don't know. I have not heard anything about what teams liked or didn't like that. Maybe, yeah,

maybe there's something in the Steelers press conference after the fact, yeah, teams love to say, oh, we thought this guy, we would have taken this guy in the, you know, in the fourth or whatever. Yep. Are any clear losers of the draft? I have one. Go ahead. You go first then.

The San Francisco 49ers. Oh, yes. That was actually the one I picked out before and totally forgot about until now. Yeah, they start safety kicker with their first two picks of the draft. Safety kicker and crappy tight end. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. And you can keep going. For a team that is trying to win a Super Bowl with Brock Party is their QB.

This is what they come out with. I don't. For a team that had no picks, really. No day one picks, no second round picks. I just don't understand, man. Why did they draft this way? A kick. Are they done paying off the Tray Lance trade at this point?

They are, right? This is it. I think this was it, yeah. Good. Wow. A lot of these names, though, are just so uninspiring. Like, I didn't even score Robert Beale Jr. He was a very minor role player for Georgia.

I didn't score the few winters. I didn't score Bailen Graham. And I know it's the seventh round, but like, Braden Willis, when you just took, like, Like, how many tight ends do you need on your roster? You're probably going to cut Willis. Not that, like, seventh round picks have to make your roster, but just take a stab somewhere else. Yeah.

Ronnie Bell in the seventh, I like that pick. That's fine, yeah. Good mover. But, like, even Daryl Luther Jr., man, or Daryl Luter. I don't know. Really weird, really, really. Jair Brown, too. That was way early for him.

I don't know, super weird draft. Anyone else that you thought was a clear-cut loser? I don't love what the Rams did. Mostly another team that just is devoid of talent at this point because of all the draft pick trading they've done over the years. Is it deviled? I don't know. I think it's void of talent.

Yeah, void of talent. Yeah, you're right. You're right. Steve Avila is a fine pick in the second round at guard. They need tons of offensive line health. Byron Young, not really the most inspiring edge player in the third round. Kobe Turner is fine, but then it just starts getting bad when they take Stetson Bennett in the fourth round, who many people thought would go undrafted and he's 26 years old.

Like, just why? And then I like some of their late round picks, like Puka Nakuwa in the fifth. Davis Allen and the fifth is not bad, but again, tight end doesn't really matter for a team that needs just so much other help. They draft the Wingate punter, which I don't know a ton about punters, but taking one from a division two school doesn't really seem like super optimal. Bro, I don't even think they're division two.

I think they're lower than that. They're lower than that. Okay, whatever, whatever it is. But yeah, I just, I just, I just feel like we still don't know what this Rams team thinks they are and what's what's they want to be. McVeigh was so close to retiring and they want to come back and try to win a Super Bowl this year. What is this draft then? Yeah. I don't hate it as much as you. Here's my quick spin on it. Steve Avila's a baller. Yeah. I like that pick. They need offensive line

talent badly and I think he's a great injection there. Byron Young, uninspiring is a good way to describe them. That's the word you used. I will say though, If you're going for traits, this dude is an absolute freak athlete. Maybe you can get more out of him than Tennessee got out of him, obviously. Kobe Turner's fine. Seths and Bennett, bad pick. Nick Hampton, terrible pick. Warren McClendon Jr., terrible pick.

Davis, this is where, and then they go in a little stretch here where I like their picks. Davis Allen, Clemson. Perfect tight end two in the NFL. And that's about where they drafted him range-wise. I think he's a good combo, run blocker with some. zone beating upside as a receiver. Puka and Kua, one of my favorite picks of the draft, only because his skill set directly matches a certain role in their offense perfectly.

And it's that Robert Woods role that they haven't had since Robert Woods left. I really do like that pick for them. I even made a bold statement on Twitter that this feels like Amon Ra in the fourth round to me. I don't think Puka will be that good. but I think as far as like a day three guy that if there's any day three receiver that I think could go nuts it's Pooka Nakua just based on landing spot and then Traveus Hodges Tomlinson I love that pick he's a fantastic corner now I knew he was going to fall I scored him like he wouldn't but he's five foot seven he plays corner he's a slot only guy they play a ton of zone though so he's not like going to be in these weird contested situations where he's going to get mossed every chance he gets right he's should be fine in that role, mostly breaking stuff underneath of him. So I like that.

And then the Zach Evans pick is sneaky, man. I think Zach Evans is bad. You just think he's objectively bad? Yes, he's not good. I think for a, how do I phrase it? If you truly are believer in running backs don't matter. This is exactly the kind of dart you want to throw out a running back. Zach Evans, five-star guy.

I think he's got some really good moments on tape. he's obviously have some bad ones as well. Perfect. You need a backup running back? Cool. We're going to throw a six round pick at it. We're going to do it with a high pedigree player that has some decent tape. I don't mind it.

Everything else was bad though. They made a lot of picks too. How many day three picks are they make? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven. Eleven day three picks. Yeah. That's outrageous. So they probably didn't come into the draft.

I don't remember how many, how much capital they actually had, but they probably didn't come into that. If they had even close to this much capital though, they should have tried to move up at some point and and get something a little better at somewhere or or punt it off to 2024 and like, you know, trade a seventh for a fifth like some teams did and whatnot. Yep. Let's. You want to talk about the QB thing? How many QBs went? Yeah, yeah.

actually real quick one other team I wanted to highlight I really liked what uh I really liked the first five picks of the Seattle Seahawks oh I love what the Seahawks did our value chart thinks they did terrible they had the third most uh loss of third highest loss of value based on the picks they made versus the capital. So Charbonnet is part of that problem for sure. Charbonnet's part of that problem. But Devin Wetherspin at five, Jackson Smith and Jigba at 20, Derek Hall at 37. Those are three premium positions. They get really good players, all of them. I know Derek Hall, they lost value on that too because he wasn't the 37th player on my board. But for what the Seahawks do, I really like him. Length, power, you know, good athlete. I like all that stuff for the

the Seahawks. And then Charbonate, I almost came around to not hating this pick because this is what the Seahawks do. It is what they do. That's why I'm not as down on the situation between him and Ken Walker as what I feel like a lot of people are. I went back and looked. They had in the same year, Chris,

this is the year they drafted Rashad Penny in the first round. They gave Chris Carson a contract. And they still had Marshawn Lynch on the roster. Was it really? Yeah. They rolled into that season with Lynch, Penny, and Chris Carson. Oh, and Alex Collins was on the roster too. Yeah.

And he was a UDFA. They hit on the year before, had a good year before when Lynch was hurt. This is just what the Seahawks do. They value the run game a ton. And if you want to keep Gino in his bag, I think supporting him with a good run game is fine. I think that's a fine strategy. Anthony Bradford also a good guard in the fourth round. So then after that it got pretty bad.

Yeah. Yeah. So we had the most QBs go off the board in this draft than we've had since 2016. This is also the most day three QBs we've had go off the board since 2016. This is following a year where Brock Party took the Niners to the NFC championship game being a seventh round draft pick. Are teams getting smarter or are they getting dumber? I think teams are getting smarter. Here's the thing.

I'm a firm believer that you should throw a dart at a quarterback like every other year at some point in the draft. Probably not day one or two. But there's no reason to turn the back end to your roster and try to find that really solid backup. Especially if you hit on one and he ends up out producing his draft stock, you can get assets and trades. Okay. And how often do you think that happens? I don't know. No one's really doing that.

No one's applying that strategy. Like the league was desperate, in desperate need of a backup quarterback revolution. We've had the same 20 guys turning the back end of these rosters for a while now. Even guys like Nate Sudfeld. Like it's time the NFL moves on from him, right? Like David Blow, Jeff Driscoll. These get like this, we've got to be done. You know, like there's no upside here.

Are these guys smart dudes? I mean, your dog is barking right now. It's probably smarter than those guys. Yeah, sorry. So what do you think? So then who do you think are some good NFL backup quarterbacks right now in the league? Jacoby Berset. It's probably my favorite.

He's a starting quarterback, though. Berset's not right now. Oh, he's a starting quarterback. He was last year and he's going to be this year. Wait, what am I missing? He's going to take over for Hal at some point, whether it's at the beginning of the season or the end of the season. You think so? Yeah.

Ron Rivera is not going to mess around with Sam Hall being not good. Okay. I mean, Brissette was discernibly better than Deshaun Watson was. I know. That's why I think he's a starting quarterback. Not a great one, but he's a starter. Well, if you're not a top 20 QB to me, you're a backup. Yeah.

So that's fair. Tyler Heineke's probably high on the backup spectrum. Yeah. I'm trying to think of other guys I like. Case Keenham. It's raw. He's just so limited from an arm talent standpoint. It's really hard for me to get up.

I think in the right system, you saw that one year in Minnesota, in the right system it works. But now, I mean, I just. Tyler Huntley, for his good backup for what the Ravens do.

Yeah, I like, he'd work for the Ravens. He'd work for the Falcons. probably the bears maybe the dolphins because they can get some some weird spread schemes with him working so the reason i'm asking you is because i don't think good backup kbs come from day three i think i mean they can a lot of them come from day two that and or they are just undrafted guys that like that you can i think it's just as likely as you you find an undrafted guy as you find a day

three qb that's good well so what's crazy is of all the qbs we got drafted there were still like 12 more who signed UDFA deals. Yeah, that's my point is there's always guys that you can sign after the fact. Like some of the day three guys that are current, that were backups heading in the last year, Stidham, Minchu, McSorley, Trevor Simeon, Nathan Peterman, Sam Ellinger, Brandon Allen, Nate Sudfeld, Mike White, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Jobs. I mean, there are any of those guys you feel awesome about being your backup QB? there's a couple but there's certainly not it's certainly not like i like mike wait yeah like

mike white i think josh jobs is okay uh last year uh they lost uh wasn't no dalton was two years ago um will greer was there no will greer no that's who they went that's who they went into the season with they eventually uh yeah cooper rush cooper rush was he was right yeah he was right? Yeah, he was undrafted. Yeah. No, I see your point. I think a lot of those guys you just mentioned, they come from smaller schools, and they started a lot of football games. So they have a lot

experience under their belt. So it's interesting, like the line signed Adrian Martinez as a UDFA. It's like, do you think, is there a shot? He upsets Nate Sudfeld? Well, I mean, Hendon's obviously the backup, but he's recovering from an ACL interest. I mean, I don't know, maybe. He might.

probably Sudfeld's experience will probably keep him there would be my guess. I mean, Martinez was like a five-year starter in college. Yeah, I know. But there's definitely a bias in that NFL experience for college experience. Like he'd have to like really be better than him. Yeah. Well, let's go through some of these quarterback picks because I do think a lot like, okay, when I scored these players, I will like notably this was a good QB class,

not just at the top, but all the way through. and I even wrote in some of my notes like like Aden O'Connell I thought he was a much better prospect than a lot of the day two quarterbacks of recent memory whether that be Desmond Ritter or Kyle Trask or

Kellyn Monde Clayton Tune was in that Jake Hainer like you know me I was a huge Jake Hainer I loved Hainer you know only thing working against him is he's not You like Jake Hainer in the fourth round though? Yeah I do I think I scored him as a day two player I just It just doesn't work

And not always because of the player being bad They just don't get opportunities Because they That's the whole key with the backup, right? It's like you don't realize how bad you need one Until you need one But even when you need one, you're dead Not always

The Chiefs needed Chad Henney to win a game for them in the playoffs Yeah, I guess Kind of I just It doesn't It just doesn't work more often than not, when you lose your starting QB, you are dead. It depends for how long.

You need a guy that can keep you afloat for four to five weeks. If you need more than that, you're dead. The Cooper Rush, what did he started five games last year? One four of them. Yeah. Yeah, you need a guy that can do that. Yeah. We buried the Dallas Cowboys.

We thought they were dead. Yeah. But I think you can find all of that as an undrafted guy or just a vet of a flamed out early round QB that is still better than some guys. Maybe. I mean, that might be true. I just think you still need to do the evaluations and go through your process with them. Chad Henney was undrafted, by the way.

Was he? Yeah. Are you sure? Yep. Wow. Because he had a pretty good career at Michigan. That's surprising. Yeah, I don't know.

I don't know. I like this QB class. I mean. I just think there's good. positional fourth round players you can get over these QBs that will provide you nothing and not really provide you a ceiling that's the other thing you get no ceiling with these picks I will say you know day two in like round four is probably not the sweet spot to be drafting QBs it's probably the fifth round like I think it's six or later I think you're you're okay during Tops and Robinson I think are two really good picks I'm not even a DTR guy but like you talk about He is ceiling. He is ceiling. He is upside. The developmental upside. I mean, he's basically like, he's never going to get a chance to show that. So they're never going to recoup any value from that. How do you know? DeShon Watson. Watson's got to have an injury, basically.

He also allegedly sexually assaulted 27 people. Yeah, but that's over. Another, well, that one is, you don't get into that kind of trouble unless you're into that kind of trouble, man. Yeah, I get. But, all right, we're, you're, you're, you're. Talking very specific things that have to happen, though. Well, yeah. That's kind of why you draft a backup quarterback is prepared for those very specific situations. Clayton, too, and I like that pick because we already talked about it, but Kyler coming off to ACL, he could get an opportunity. No, when the Jaguars drafted Gardner Minshu, nobody thought he'd get a chance.

And we kind of talked about earlier that when you're a later-round pick especially, you have to do crazy things to show that you're amazing. You have to do what Brock Party did, essentially, and take a team on a playoff run that you probably didn't deserve to be doing as a late round for teams to believe in you. If Clayton Toon comes in and, you know, wins them two games out of four and looks pretty good, no one's going to remember Clayton Toon after the fact. Kyler is going to come back, be the starter, and move along. Until Clayton Toon signs a three-year, you know, $30 million deal a couple years later to be a backup somewhere. Not the Cardinals, though. No, not with the Cardinals. So then what was the point?

He got you. There's a point. You're better off picking off the guys after the fact, I think, than drafting guys. You know, six, seven round, whatever. I don't think that matters as much. But four or five, round three, day two, or round two can be okay because there's guys like, like Levis getting into day two. Jalen Hertz getting into round two. I think there's still like windows where round two can be okay.

but it's it's like three four or five just don't take quarterbacks what um i will i am a little tickled that uh mike renner first round graded tanner mckee went in the sixth round yes oh man i what do you think i've heard like he's got no mobility whatsoever do you think that is he's also older right all the all the mormon kids are older yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah I was surprised he was he like how does he go after Sean Clifford how does Sean Clifford could draft it but that I mean you have a point about some of these guys for sure Clifford Jaron Hall these are just flushing fifth round picks on your toilet Max Duggan what are we doing next seven Max he was a seventh round pick but yeah yeah I mean

true but like yeah to your point I'd much rather throw a dart at like Malik Cunningham or Tyson bag baggant as on as UDFAs which both those guys signed places dresser win Adrian Martinez Lindsay Scott Jr. They all signed his UD Affairs but

so what did you think of the lines headed Hooker pick then are you finally because he has starter upside Hooker fell for a different reason he fell because of injury and offensive scheme that may or may not translate

to the NFL it's definitely not ideal but I don't think it's a death nail for him because of given what's around it like if Hooker finishes his senior year, he's going at worst where Levis went. Yeah, probably higher, maybe higher than Levis.

Yeah, exactly. So I don't think that's a big deal. Will Levis is the oldest starting quarterback in that division. Is he? Lawrence. He's older than Lawrence. He's older than Richardson and Stroud. Richard and Stroud, wow.

That is a young, young division. the QB. It's crazy how I did a bunch of mocks where this exact scenario played out, and then Levis ends up the oldest QB in that division. It's so funny to me. Yeah. Through the back door, too, not in the first round. Yeah.

All right. Should we get out of here for today? Yeah. We'll be recapping draft stuff all weekend or all week. I don't even know what day it is, Chris. I'm lost. It's Monday. It's Monday.

Oh, man. All right. We will be back tomorrow to talk. We'll get into divisional stuff and go team by team and really talk about their draft classes. So, all right. Thanks for listening. We are out. Thanks for tuning into this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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