Fantasy Football Daily - Redrafting The 2024 Rookie WR Rankings + Jonathan Taylor's Dynasty Value | Dynasty Points Market Report

Episode Date: December 8, 2024

Join us for an engaging episode of our fantasy football podcast, where we explore the intricate world of dynasty leagues. Our host, Tom, along with co-host Buck and guest Mike from South Harmon Fantasy Football, share expert insights on player evaluations, trade strategies, and the promising 2024 rookie wide receiver class. DynastyStrategy We address overreactions in the dynasty community, using Kyren Williams as a prime example. The hosts stress the importance of patience and adapting to new information. Next, we dive into recent trades involving players like Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs. The discussion highlights the complexity of dynasty trades and the balance between short-term gains and long-term strategy. Jonathan Taylor's value is a hot topic as the hosts debate his current and future standing in dynasty leagues. They compare him to other players, exploring the concept of "value insulation" for young talents. The episode also features an in-depth 2024 rookie wide receiver class analysis. Players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Neighbors are ranked and evaluated for their NFL potential and dynasty value. Finally, the Roma Dounes debate offers differing perspectives on his rookie season and future potential, providing insights into the risks and rewards of investing in emerging talents. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Dynasty Daddy Website - https://dynasty-daddy.com/ https://www.southharmonff.com/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/Andy_Buckler http://twitter.com/https:/IowaMichael 0:00 Intro 6:58 Anthony Richardson Critique 9:24 Trevor Lawrence's drop rate 14:13 Anthony Richardson's fan base and Twitter reactions 18:51 Quarterback Evaluation and Market Strategy 24:13 Trade Discussions 28:21 Undervalued tight ends 32:52 Trade Deadline Strategy 37:57 Roster Construction Critique 43:12 Guerrendo's Value 46:59 Trade Strategy Discussion 51:00 Frustrations in the Dynasty community 52:12 - Jonathan Taylor's Value 1:00:18 - Jonathan Taylor's Future and Value Concerns 1:04:51 -Jonathan Taylor vs. George Pickens 1:08:21 - Wide Receiver Rankings Discussion 1:15:04 - Ranking Rookie Wide Receivers 1:17:50 - Wide Receiver Analysis 1:23:18 - Rookie Wide Receiver Analysis 1:28:28 - Rookie Class Analysis 1:34:15 - Rome Odunze's Potential 1:36:48 - Analytical Evaluation of College Players 1:41:32 - Michael Pittman and Dynasty Strategy 1:45:50 - Dynasty Daddy Trade Discussion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week 14. This is being recorded on December 5th. We're already in December, which is absolutely insane. No episode last week, holidays, travels. I'm Canadian, bucks American, et cetera, et cetera. Couldn't make it work. However, not only are we back, but we're back with something really fun. First guest for the Dynasty Points Market Report, probably our first guessing quite a while, honestly, for a Dynasty Points podcast in general. However, I couldn't think of anyone better to be joining us than one of the goats a man i finally got to meet one of the most generous hospitable human beings i have ever met went out of his way to pick me up from the cleveland airport went an hour there and an hour back just to pick my fat behind up from the airport and was again gracious all

through the fantasy expo this is you might know him on twitter as iowa mike you know him from South Harmon of fantasy football and all the work they do over there. We talk about them constantly with their work with war and really industry leading in that regard. Joining us today, of course, Buck is with me as always. But Mike, we're back behind microphones together for the first time since we shut down a stream on YouTube. Oh, it feels good. It feels good, especially when you asked me to be on. I jumped right at it. kind of in the same way like you mentioned I'll drive all the way a hour and a half to go pick you up from an airport drive you back just to hang with you my first Canadian so you're always holding a special place in my heart first Canadian I've ever been with Tom we always remember our first Mike again happy to have this episode here we like to do a lot of different things on this podcast and try to kind of ram it all in there as we can this week is no different

We obviously are going to open up with things that annoyed us in the dynasty community We have got trades that we ourselves have made We're gonna talk about those and kind of break that down one of them We looking like we kind of got hosed on but maybe we get a bounce back week here Then we are gonna get into Jonathan Taylor and what we are going to be doing with him What his outlook is etc and I feel like it's time because I asked you Mike what your subscribers were kind of want to wanting to talk about the most that maybe you haven't had time yet and it was the

2024 rookie wide receiver class I think it's time to do a deep dive to see what kind of bars they need to hit down the stretch because re-ranking these dudes I was very surprised at my own outcome but we're gonna dive into that with all of that said let's jump right in to the first bit it's things that annoyed us this week in the dynasty community and this one I had it really drove me crazy we talked about it briefly on Tuesday but I wanted to expand on it guys you know what really if you would grinded my gears over this last week I'm I'm working on Sunday I'm vibing doing what I have to with fantasy points and all across

Twitter I just see like Kyron's dead it's over it happened here comes Blake Corum predicting a player's downfall every week hoping that you hit the one week that it finally happens we are consistently wishing upon a player's downfall not realizing that these good players players that are good and players that do produce just don't get asked to take a backseat for no reason something significant has to happen especially when we know coaches have histories We know what coaches like to do. We went over this. We know Corm gets the third attempt at running the ball.

This last week as Ryan Heath went over, he got the second rep because it was into the second quarter by the time they got the ball again. So they wanted to give them some reps so it wasn't too long. All we've seen from the CoachSpeak Index and in the CoachSpeak Index Discord, which you are not in, you need to be in, is just Sean McVeigh reiterating that they have Blake Corm to keep. Kyran fresh. Constantly saying each week that a player is done for, just to hopefully hit the

banger of being right, makes me crazy. Because that means I had to go and check when I saw this tweet. And next thing I knew it was 20 points, Kyron. And 10% of touches, Blake Korn. This, when we start to think that way, it hinders our decisions long term, which is why we mentioned that like, quorum's a must buy simply because in the off season, we're going to narrative our way into him being the starter again. It's already happening in week 13.

You know what I mean? It makes me crazy, Mike. It happens all the time. And it just, I feel like I needed to say something about it this week. Be a little bit more aware. Now, granted,

it's not to say that sometimes something does happen and players do just kind of take over. Remember the tank over of Tank Bigsby? Oh, my Lord. That was. short-lived, mind you, but, you know, it was there. We're overreacting, Mike. It drove me nuts. Yeah, it gets pretty bad.

And I was probably one of the drivers of the bus in the offseason about Blake Horm over Kyron Williams. It was just a matter of time. But my dream died probably about five, six weeks ago, time. Like, this is what, uh. And then to see this past week, I was like, oh, look at this. Now he's finally getting run. And lo and behold, by the end of the game, it's like, we're just right back to where we

are anyways this was this was very short-lived it was fun to see all the the premature victory laps a big fan of a premature celebrations you know dropping the ball right before he cross goal line right kind of what uh that's what the kairn haters really wanted to do and I was one of the Kyron haters but you just appreciate what he's doing right now scoring fantasy points being being a top ten running back and more you what else do you want exactly and you want to be right but fishing for being right is what gets you left behind that's what leaves you selling kairn too early buying corn when he's too expensive etc you get

wrapped up into that you're just behind so that's that's what drove me nuts buck what says you yes i do have one it's a player that you told me i told i asked you to never allow me to speak about again oh no and i'm going to do it why you didn't write it down yep i didn't say no i'm just i can edit it out buck no i have to do it it's the anthie richmond stuff it's the hypothetical Anthony Richardson stuff. I think Twitter and just like the fantasy community, like a little small part of it grabs a hold of certain players that they like can't just can't, can never do wrong. Anthony Richardson is now that player where it's like, oh, if you watch the tape, he made this throw and that throw. It's like, Anthony Richardson hypotheticals is like Lamar Jackson and Joe Barrow

together. He's like the greatest player of all time. But then he's actually like he's asked when you look at the actual box score because he's, he passes tour dates. He'd be like seven for 21 every game, but there's an excuse, there's an excuse for every, every miss pass he ever makes. And I just, I'm really sick of that, like, sick of that type of stuff. I understand Anthony Richardson makes some plays that don't show up in the stat sheet because he, you know, they, they drop passes. First of all, that Kyron, Granson, you know, that shitty tight end drop. That was, I heard about that drop like it was the most egregious thing ever. I don't even think you should probably even been throwing that pass. Like, that was an awful

decision. He threw the ball across his body 60 yards to probably like no one even in the progression. I thought that was going to be like a walk-in touchdown drop. That was insane when I actually went and saw that. So I'm sick of like, I'm sick of that because every quarterback in the league gets drops, all the good ones, but they're good enough to overcome it. And the issue at Anthony Richardson right now is he's not good enough to overcome a mistake because he gets one shot at actually hitting the pass because he goes one for 15. And if they don't make it, he's never going to overcome. And that's like back to the, that's like back to the Jonathan Taylor. So now we got people like pretending John the Taylor is not good because he has a fat ass running back at quarterback that can't

sustain a drive ever. And I'm sick of the Anderson stuff. I'm sick of this dude being the hypothetical Joe Burr. Like he is the new if man. Like everyone who talked about Herbert, like how Herbert is like the goat in hypothetical is this now Anthony Richardson. And I'm really sick about that. And hopefully this is the last time I speak on him. You get it all out? Yep, I'm good. You know you're going get bad ass quarterback or fat ass running back at quarterback accusations now I don't I don't think you're totally wrong there were some pretty egregious ones but it we've talked about it before where it comes down like throw a catchable ball like you've got to throw more catchable ball if you're throwing 110 miles an hour at every receiver well that's the thing

the Kylan Granson throw was more impressive than the drop was terrible yeah that's what he does He has that. Like drops are like drops are a quarter when they're consistent over year after year. Like they're a quarterback stat. Like I'm sorry. Trevor Lawrence is top two in drops every single year, regardless of who he has a receiver. His receiving core is different every year. And his drop rate top of the league every year.

Like like unless he's used are just like the Michael Jordan secret stuff, suddenly take it away every time the dude get they get on the Jaguars. It doesn't make sense. He doesn't throw a catch of a ball. And like that's a real thing. And we argued in the discord like, oh, they're. NFL players, like, I don't care, like a catch little ball is a real thing. Like, Josh Allen, and early in his career, like, people didn't like playing with him. He threw 100 miles an hour. He had no touch ever. Like, it's a thing. It's obviously a thing, whichever Lawrence, because he's

been in league five years. They dropped the ball for him every year. He's had 100 different receivers. And it's the thing for Anthony Richardson. He doesn't, like, he just, the dude's on go 100 miles hour every time. So I'm like, I get it. Like, but everyone has drops. Like, I mean, Justin Herbert is probably MVP if they don't have drops. Like, I don't know. It does be wild like that. sometimes Mike Anthony Richardson is a player that people are all over the place on all the time we've been of the more out variety here on this program one of the strongest takes I had heading into the startup season was that if there's one player you draft in the first round

where 30% of the teams that drafted him at his ADP ended up being orphans it was Anthony Richardson. He does flash some stuff, but I'd love to hear your take on him because he is all over the map. Oh, he's definitely all over the map. And I feel like I'm the perfect person to be out here with Buck out here and there's a soapbox moment about Anthony Richardson. Let me turn in the tables on you because the thing that irritates me in Dynasty,

especially of late, is the ability of people in a very short time frame to just absolutely dunk on quarterbacks. Yes. Who are raw and have amazingly high ceilings? Yes. We haven't seen that potential. Anthony Richardson, for example, 13 games. This is what we've seen of Anthony Richardson.

13 games started in his career, and he's still learning how to play the position. I fully understand from an NFL standpoint, from a team winning standpoint, not ideal. A lot of the stuff that he does. A lot of the stuff in the growing pains that he's going through. But we have seen this story play out before with Uber talented quarterbacks who need time to develop The easy one, the layup's always going to be Josh Allen, it is But I will dive into my Eagles fandom as a guy who was very out on Jalen Hertz

Through the first two years of his career Said he couldn't get it done and didn't see the progression and didn't see the ability to throw to the left Or not scramble to the right immediately And then it winds up to Jalen Hertz is just a de facto top two top three quarterback in fantasy football every single year. Guys take some time in the NFL to progress and to learn. And if I'm going to sit out here and I'm going to glaze any type of quarterback and make excuses for bad play, it's going to be for these type of quarterbacks.

The thing that irritates me is the overall dynasty community who wants to go out and glaze the Baker Mayfields of the world, the Jerichoffs of the world, the Brock Purdy's of the world, perennial Brock Purdy hater here. Yes. These are mid. These are mid dudes for fantasy. These are mid dudes in the NFL with the situation and everything works out right for them. They go out and they can produce at a reasonable level.

But then we just kind of gloss over the fact when they go out and have a five interception game and they really show the talent. You know, when they show that they need to be relied upon, they shit the bed. If I'm going to go out and make this bet every single year on, quarterback talent for my fantasy teams, for my dynasty teams, it's always going to default to the dudes with the absolutely incredibly high ceilings. The guys that can actually change the game for me because these mid quarterbacks are a dime a dozen. The Tua's are a dime a dozen. The Dach Prescott's are a dime a dozen. The Brock Purdy's are a dime a dozen. There will be people out there still making excuses for Justin Herbert, even though his fantasy production is ass. This happens more and more, and it just drives me up a while.

wall. So perfect podcast to be on. If Buck's going to come out here, just guns ablazing, right? On his anti-richistan take, O Contrere, Mon Frere. I'm on the other side of this being like, these are the dudes I'm going to glaze. These are the ones that I'm going to promote and be like, well, if you look at the throws, you look at the game tape. Like, these are the ones I want to defend. I'm not going to go defend a bunch of mids. And it's, yeah, and it's not even that I have, like, an anthrois and take, like, I hate him, and I think he sucks or anything. I hate his fan base and I hate the like the Twitter stuff where it's like everyone is doing the whole you have to watch like making excuses for this like it's a whole like it's my timeline on every Sunday it's like oh

actually he played better than the stats again and it's just annoying and I get it like I'm sure there's truth to it and we were actually pro anthony right so like when he got bench like we were on here talking about how he shouldn't have got bench and how he you know he got a really unfair crack at being the quarterback and he only played he was whatever it was like six games that he finished before he got bench like he played 10 games finished six so I understand like Richardson, I understand that he was like one of the probably the Ross quarterback to ever get drafted in the first round. Like I get all that. But I do think some of the stuff, I do think he just ever since he got benched, now it's like we have to pretend to like, we have to pretend to like, we have to pretend he's like way better than he is now because we felt bad that he got benched.

And every chance we get, it's like, remember when Flacco played? Remember when Flacco? Like that stuff is just like, I'm just kind of over that type of thing. But I don't think Anthroisans like, I don't like hate Anthrox or anything, but I'm, I don't like his fans. Here's one of the crazy things. I know Tom loves advanced stats, and he's kind of diving into the warp a little bit. In war per game, Anthony Richardson is better than the aforementioned Joe Flacco

when he played this year. Well, that's not hard to imagine. That's not hard to imagine. He's better than Matt Stafford. Also not hard to imagine. He's better than Justin Herbert. It's better than C.J. Stroud. Now, the difference between Anthony Richardson playing bad

is there is a split community, right? there's there's my side there's buck side i don't hear this about c j stroud oh oh oh oh i don't hear it so loudly and it's not reflected in any type of dynasty value but why is it so easy for like the anthony richardson or the justin fields types to get this hate and get the community so split on them well i can tell you have to pick a side and the c j strout it's like oh okay well it's kind of just a down year we're fine with it I can tell you and I can tell you that I have my biggest hottest take of this dynasty season it was that CJ shroud was the worst pick you could make at ADP

that's when he was one two one three he's still gonna be a bad pick at ADP in my opinion because there's always a pylon that sits at the top the top five that doesn't belong there I've said this for quite a while our listeners very much so are aware that I think the perception is is that he is a quote complete quarterback and we've hashtag seen it and maybe it there is a little bit of fear with richardson that he gets the trey lance-esque treatment even though he's already been better but he gets that kind of treatment where we're waiting for it to all click and the next thing you know he's on another team justin fielding himself i think that's where the hesitation does come with richardson

i don't care about his play i know if i put him in there's a chance i'm going to get nine points I know there's a chance I'm going to get 30. My problem with AR has been, will always be, and is consistently his price. I couldn't do his price at 112. I sure shit couldn't do his price at 110, and I can't do his price at like 203. It can't do it. It's just not a pick. I want Aminraa St. Brown.

I want Nico Collins. I want the wide receiver in that regard. I'm a punt QB type guy. There's better bets for... I'm happy to make a Justin Fields bet in like the 11th to 12th round next year early before free agency and stuff that I am willing to take on the Anthony Richardson like mid second which is where I think he's going to end up being he might dip into the third and then like I might get interested but like you said there's not been a reflection in the C.J.

Stroud value arc but there seems to be this wavering reflection of Anthony Richardson's value within the dynasty community. Now, if you're a savvy manager, you probably were able to go out and acquire some Anthony Richardson. If you search the Dynasty Daddy trade database, which is one we use here quite often, you'll be able to go and find some Anthony Richardson's for DAC, Braylin Allen, and a fourth. Yeah, I'll take a shot at AR at that price. Hell yeah, a guy who's injured in 32, and we just talked about DAC, or this upside possible 30 point guy. The thing with AR that's never quite talked about is sometimes NFL teams aren't patient enough for these guys. And they already weren't.

Like they already weren't. Yeah, ownership was already not. But I think that it comes down to with AR is it's easy to make a blanket statement. But what I want people to remember when it comes to quarterbacks is I have always said one statement. There's only one person. or thing that can scout quarterbacks properly, and it's God herself, because all of us were just guessing at this point.

Like, quarterbacks are the most hit and miss position in fantasy football. I've said this multiple times, so you want to make your bets. I like to make my bets on price. I will say I agree with Buck in the Anthony Richardson, like, defense attorneys that are on Twitter, are very loud about it. But I will also say there's not enough speak on Mike's end for the

the winds above replacement level of play that you get week in a week out everyone has a floor right not many have that ceiling I like to live in the middle and I like to live in the understanding of price and the market evaluations which helps me stay away from blanket statements on

quarterbacks so I don't get receded if you would but the I understand why it would make make us all crazy one way Look at Bryce Young, right? The blanket statements on Bryce Young. Now he goes out. Has two really good games.

Are they like a blip in the radar? Is he going to go back to normal? I don't know. We didn't take into account that Bryce Young was going to get a pep talk from Rod Wave. Ever since he got that pep talk, he has been a much better quarterback. Your guy, Rod Wave. Here's the thing on both of them. If you just look at the last three weeks, war per game, Anthony Richardson's QB.

Bryce Young, QB7. Right. I mean, maybe. I was with you guys. I was one of the biggest opponents of benching your young quarterback, whether it was Bryce Young Richardson for a Journeyman, Trashcan, mid-quarterback that wasn't going to help anything. Regardless how good Andy Dalton's hair is. He's fantastic hair.

Terrible that quarterback. I thought that was a horrible move, but so far, probably one of my biggest Fier's Thomas, at least if we've got to look forward for quarterback evaluations going forward, is teams are going to look at it like this was a good move because both of them have came out like gangbusters here these last three weeks. As far as fantasy is concerned, I'm never going to say no to two quarterbacks like this being in the top 10 for the last three weeks heading into the fantasy playoffs. This is a trend that you want to spot.

If I'm a contending team looking at it right now with Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson, if there is those markets out there where it's Dack Prescott and Braylon Allen and some junk, which most of that trade was a junk, and I can go acquire one of these home run type shots, do it all day, all day. I'm not saying go out and buy Anthony Richardson for two first, you know, like leverage yourself and put yourself in a bad situation, but I also never really understood the people who were panic selling at seconds. It's like, oh.

Yeah, we talked about that. I can't, buck is not like, you can't let me. get going on this again because I fried my own co-host Jacob Sanderson on this exact topic when he was going through the emotional Indianapolis Colts fan roller coaster when him and I went back and forth on the cell for any second we've seen rushing quarterbacks hold value we mentioned trade lance that's the comp i kind of have for him right now in terms of where i see his dynasty value going if his current trend continue if he keeps going 10 of 21 but still scoring 22 points he's getting the tray lance treatment and it would be hard to tell me

otherwise it's just what i see he'll hover he'll go he'll be in the second round and then like midway through the startup season he might dip to like three and a half and then the following year if it happens again he'll he'll sit around the fifth because now people are afraid or they're going to draft someone else etc like i i see that peaks and valleys in anthony richardson's future if this doesn't change. If there's a coaching change, if they sign a draft another receiver or there's a bunch of different ways we can see this going where he holds his value, there is always going to either A, be an opportunity to sell or be an opportunity to buy

even in the offseason. So it's just how these rushing quarterbacks go. People want safety at the position. I've always said it doesn't actually exist. You thought you were safe with C.J. Straub. you're not thought you were safe with Herbert you're not

they're just there's no such thing is that things change too much in the NFL that was things that ticked us off with a little bit of bonus what I love about having Mike around you never it's never just going to be a straight up

conversation the way that you think it might be but that's what we're here for we're here to do things a little bit differently for everyone quick break when we come back it's time to get into trades we made And speaking of Jonathan Taylor, it's time to have a conversation about a soon-to-be or future 26-year-old running back not catching passes. There's no other way around it. We'll tell you why on the other side.

All right, Mike, one thing we like to do, I let you know if you had one to bring it and we'll talk about it. These are trades that we have made. You see, Mike, we have talked about previously on this program and things that annoy us. the oh just trade a first for player x content that exists why it drives us truly insane like trade jenty for baker type stuff for one-on-one for baker type content that makes us insane because i don't think people are actually doing that when they're saying it we like to come out here and talk about trades that we've actually made for better or worse and how we see it coming So I want to start with the one that Buck and I made in our co-managed fantasy points listener league where

We weren't sure what we had with Andrews We have craft as well He wasn't playing that week. We traded for Kate Otten We fell for the second round pick for Kate Otten We needed them badly that week We were fighting quite vigorously for a top tier spot didn't want to take a zero We took a zero not great it wasn't great doesn't great doesn't doesn't feel great but let's talk about it I think a second round pick is just

generally what you're gonna have to pay for them the rest of the way I know you hate tight ends all together you have you have switched to all flex leagues I've seen in the discord there I know how you feel about tight ends but in this case it did does look like we got flee 73.8% route participation of 5.5 a 8 out 18.7% target share 22% target per route run 1.55 yards per route run the first read targets went down. He's 11 points per game on a 10.8 expected fantasy points per game. This guy is either Travis Kelsey or Cole Commet. And I can't decide which one yet, but maybe this week there's a bounce back week and K. Dotten kind of performs a little bit better. It's not looking great for us right now. I'm going to grade this trade as a C overall. I think it can end up working out kind of a desperation play.

This is a cautionary tale on how not to do things because you feel like you need to in the moment, in my opinion. This is one trade we did. I don't love it. I don't like where it's going. We need a bounce back week for me to get some sleep because I have been up at night thinking about this here deal. Not great, Bob. Some people have dubbed me the Titan whisper. Is what you're saying as a whisper?

never trade for them. Don't draft them. They're useless. Yes, that's a good summary. Most of them are useless. So I'm not spending draft capital on these kind of guys, especially when there's Noah Gray's of the world. John U.S.

The AWARP tight end life is treating me well, and it's been a good thing. But even before that, before I leaned into the, I don't like any of them, there are tight ends that I do like and have hit to various degrees, right? If there's one thing in fantasy or dynasty that I feel good about, sometimes it's my tight end evaluations because there has been so many hits.

Let's talk about like Wolf a Wall Street. I ask you not to judge me on my winners. I ask you to judge me on my losers because I have so few. Kate Otten, he would. Okay, bars. K doten, I never thought it was a good tight end ever. This is subjective. But number one, and most important, I think the whole,

audience can take away from this one. I'm never going to trust a titan that doesn't wear gloves. Okay. If you don't wear gloves in the year of our Lord 2024, you're a terrible tight in. Like you're junk. That's a buck take. You're trash.

Okay. There's no advanced analytics on this one. You just, you don't wear gloves. You're a terrible tight end. I never thought he was actually that good. Nothing really stood out. He kind of really just seemed like a mid-Dulton Schultz type,

but in not as, as good of an offense. When everybody else went down, gets hurt, and he's the only thing left standing, sure, he had some good weeks. And I loved seeing all the people come to my inbox, you know, like, oh, you had Kate Otten from like four years ago as, you know, fifth round pick wherever it was. Let me get them off you for a second. Gladly. You take them. Go for it. I appreciate you. It's kind of like the Greg Dolchitz thing. We've seen how this has played out. This is like the Daniel Bellinger thing. This is like the Chigalquo. thing. These are junk tight ends that are just names and for whatever reason they get pushed up a

little bit too high just on a little bit of hype. So you're probably always best bet is to never buy these types. Go buy the super turds for even cheaper and just enjoy. Enjoy when they hit because you're like, I didn't pay anything for Johnny Smith. I didn't care. You remember when he had that big contract in New England was terrible and then they let him go and he goes to Atlanta and he's going to be behind the God Cow Pits. Oh wow. He was the better tight end there. And now he goes to Miami.

A new situation. They don't ever use the tight end. Look at what Durham Smyth and Julian Hill did last year. It was nothing. These are the kind of guys that you need to invest in because it's dirt cheap. And if you're wrong, no one cares. You don't even have to talk about it on this show when you make a trade that's that bad. But you do have to talk about it for full transparency.

Unlike a lot of other dynasty shows out there, Thomas, telling people to make deals and they wouldn't do it. themselves and I know this because I play in leagues with these people and you send them the deal that they tell other people to do and they go nah I wouldn't do that or they're playing for free we talked about that on this show as well we play for money we make it happen quote unquote industry leagues some of them correct yeah absolutely it looks like we got cooked on that one I feel like I just had to sit down talk with what I imagine would be like a dad if I had one but DMs are open thomas I know I know I know better I know better but

Buck did leave that decision up to me and I made it. That's on me. That's on me and we've learned now We've improved. We're gonna be better. We're gonna get our pick back Actually probably not from the person who has it, but we'll get a pick back somewhere down the road Buck let's talk about some other trades you made Okay, so the first one was on a co-owned team with Frank Cam we've won two years in a row and Our team started to really die like on week six. It started to die we lost Mike Evans Stefan Diggs, I can't even remember. But Brandon Ayuk, all these players.

But we have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. We're like, let's just see if we can do. No one wants to buy any of our players. Let's just keep trying to see if we can win. Well, now we've clinched the first round buy. We're the number one to see we clinched it. We're looking for a player to buy last week. And we're like, man, what could we do?

Like, what could we do at our late first to give us some, like, first of all, some youth and also some points because we need like at least an upside shot at receiver. So we found one of the tanking teams in the league. And we got, we sent our late first, which like I said, we're guaranteed to be the number one seed. So at least it's back end of the first, definitely. And we gave it, we gave our late first trade for Keon Coleman and Darnell Mooney. So the thought process on this trade was, we'll talk about Keon later. But he's a player I like because he actually does have some underlying stuff that's pretty interesting.

He's, he was pacing like 2.1 yards for outrun before he broke it, like broke his wrist or whatever happened in the Miami game. So I'm interested in buying him one of the youngest receivers in the NFL, tied to Josh Allen, who we have, just a nice upside shot in a throughout a league like that. And then Mooney, he was like a throw-in because he was a player we kind of valued it like maybe like a late second to give us some points. We viewed him as like an ugly like points player. So we got him throwing in. So it's like it's a late first for Keon and Mooney. I think it's a solid deal for like an upside deal for what we needed for our team. But it might be a trade like I could see the other side of people doing that trade because it's too like it's kind of just honestly like too ugly player.

But I'm a fan of the deal. What do you guys think? Mike? It's not bad. It's not bad. It's not terrible. Now, my first question is, and I may have misheard this one, is there a trade deadline in this league? There is.

I think there is. There is. I think it's actually this week. I think it's this week, yeah. This week, okay. Because the first thing I'll always say, at least for me, I play in a ton of leagues. Thomas, I heard the rant about trade deadlines. Hot topic.

fighting words for a lot of people. If it's a league with no trade deadline and I'm in first or second place and I'm getting a buy, there is absolutely no way I'm making a trade with my first round pick for these next two weeks. Right. I'm not taking on any type of risk. Yeah, I'm not taking on any type of risk before I actually have to. If you have to, though, when you get up against that trade deadline, sometimes people think they're going to hit this like massive home run.

Like, I'm going to use this first and I'm going to get a superstar player. It's not always the case. and sometimes the trade deadline actually works against you as a contender. So I'm okay with it with that kind of context where you go, like, we had to do something. I'm not going to just roll into the playoffs with a pretty good team and then sit there and lose in the semis or the championship and go like, wow, man, if we would have traded that first away for something,

something could have helped us here down the road. I don't want to have that kind of regret. Even though it doesn't seem like the sexiest of deals, the fact that you got a little bit of a kind of upside play, especially if the penics, the penics gets in and plays quarterback. Again, taking over for another super mid-discussing quarterback that people want to glaze all the time because he wears chains. I wear chains. No one glazes me.

It's fine. It's fine. It is a completely fine deal. I think you guys did well being up against the clock and having to do it. The only problem I have with it is that I didn't get to my inbox in time so I could have sent James Cook to him for the same. price but that's neither here nor there uh i was late to the game i would have taken that one that team needs that one that's besides the point although actually now that i look at it i think i'm going to make the playoffs of that league so maybe i need a jose cook more than anything don't know

where that happened all of a sudden this team is nine and four and i'm in third i don't know where this happened i sold a j brown and started winning games who knows i i'm fine if you want to re-roll your late one and still go and win a title. I'm okay with that kind of structure. It's fine. It happened in the league that I'm in and I went, checks out. So no issues with that.

I don't mind that deal whatsoever. It's the next one that I want to talk about the most here, Buck. This Tucker Kraft one I want to hear about. All right. So another league I'm eight and four. I actually took a like a crushing loss this week on Jerry Judy. prime jay rice game he'd be me by a point four not eight and five and kind of fighting for my life a lot

more than i thought i would have so it does it i'm looking a little ass more ass hair than i would have liked but i sent tucker craft my my 25 first michael mayor and christian kirk for josh jacobs and michael pitman that sounds like that's terrible and i don't buy running backs but tucker craft was my fourth tie-in i have tray mcbride like tray mcbride kiddle Mark Andrews in there and I just had Tucker Kraft he was the dude that I had like probably from the 17th round

and I don't I'm lower on him so it was like he was kind of the hold up of the deal I was like do I throw him in and make this look like you know an actual overpay because I was just really just trying to send my 25 first and get a find a way to get Josh Jacobs and I could

and this was a league this is like one of those leagues where running backs are incredibly expensive like I talked to the guy who was tanking with Kenneth Walker he said he won it multiple picks, multiple ones and picks and players for Kenneth Walker. Like, this is one of those leagues who's coming by running back. So I looked at Jacobs. He's at RB, like two, I think, since week eight or something.

I don't know the exact. So I don't want to be wrong by them. I'm pretty sure it's that. But damn good. And I was just super happy with it because I get again, it is a late first. I'll be in the playoffs. I might lose in the playoffs early, but at least it's a playoff first. Michael Mary, I don't care about.

Christian Kirk, I actually do kind of like his a buy, but in this context, I don't care about. So it's crafting the first or Jacobs and Pittman. Pitman's a player I like, and I think we'll gain some value over this offseason, whether with Richardson, whatever happens. He's been hurt, like super hurt. He's back to at least earning some type of targets. I know he's like wide receiver of 42 on keep trade cut. I think Pittman is just probably going to end up being not to at the same extent, but he's going to be like the 2025 Chris Godwin type where he's like in the ninth round, even in like a redraft or a dynasty context, where he's not going to obviously probably be the wide receiver two next year like godwin was doing or i think he's made a similar buyer his his value

completely flips in the year so that's the deal one last time because i i jumbled everything craft late first michael mayor christian kirk for josh jacos and michael pinner that's that's a deal so what do you guys think it's it's not bad again like you're you're dealing from a position of strength and one that mike has given us the talk about today that doesn't matter as much that's a fake overpay in my opinion i see that as a fake overpay and we're love fake overpace on this program. I only have one problem with it. It's just the way your roster constructed when you said you had four tight ends that he's

like your fourth. You got like four too many. That's probably my biggest problem with it. Like you built your team wrong to start with. I don't even know where I got them from, honestly. You're rectifying the situation by trading them away. Now just trade away three other ones. Start some turd burger at your tight end position and enjoy your life.

If you really, I love Tucker Craft too. Tucker Kraft has been one of my big hits at tight-in. Like, I've said forever fighting off all the terrible Luke Musgrave takes that people had because he's big and he runs fast, even though he didn't do anything in Oregon State ever. Big man, he was supposed to the best athlete on the field. They just don't throw him the ball, I guess. So that's cool. But Tucker Kraft is good.

I like Tucker Kraft as a tight-ed. Like, if Tucker Kraft was your rostered instructor where he was your starting tight-in, Like this would be hurt a little bit more, but he's still replaceable. It doesn't matter how much I like him. He's still a replaceable position and the asset. Sending your first for Jacobs on an 8 and a 4 team is a little bit sketch. Like it's just a little bit sketch. Like you're really making a bet that I'm going to, this is the thing that's going to help me be good.

Like really be good. There is a world where Josh Jacobs is faded out or phased out in 2025 at some point. Or he just gets old and gross and terrible and all. a sudden we look up because he's still running back this stuff happens all the time but overall like where it's going if you've got the team that you feel like is ready to to rock for the playoffs and Jacobs does help you you really just paid a first for Josh Jacobs and then you threw a bunch of junk at him for Michael Pittman on an upside play for next year that's that's a big dub big yeah your roster construction just sucked that was it yeah that trade's good

Trates good buddy. I appreciate it. You for me it's you just got to get past week 14. You got to get past as we're recording this tonight's game Detroit's not going to make his stat line look pretty. It's going to make you feel really bad about it, but don't worry because you got Seattle and New Orleans. So really at the end of the day, you're just hoping that he continues to be the number one driving force at the goal line and they don't start letting Jordan Love just Patrick Mahomes touchdowns from the one. at this point because that's what's driving is his production up but I'm willing to ride out the the back end of the year it's it's time to go win really and like you said within the confines of your league if the league is like now fam tight I want three firsts for my Ken Walker and I'm not competing till 2027 this is probably the best bet that you could go and make unless you want to go and overpay for the garendos who is I will say like Would it just don't acquire you wouldn't need to acquire in the rookie draft not not acquiring now so picture the buck running back room whatever you think that is that's why running back is a room is in there so it's all my guys gary gray yeah all that no all that buck is the like the zero rb poster child to the point where it's like the worst running back you could have drafted in the 15th round is his rb one

And he's just like every week begging for eight points. So Josh Jacobs on your team looks like the Ferrari under the, like beside the mobile home meme that everyone uses. Like that's what Josh Jacobs looks like to you. And at that point, you pay the price. Mike said it was funny because I'm so sick when it comes running backs. Mike was like, oh, maybe Jacobs next year will get old and like be dusty. It's like, oh, shit, I buy him everywhere then.

It's perfect. Perfect for your team. He's like him even more. It's even better deal for you. I do got one to throw in here, boys. Let's hear. Just made it, you know, a day ago. But you let me know what you think, because Thomas, I heard you hint at it.

I traded away Isaac Orendo. I'm a rebuilding team. It's a best ball league. I got two late thirds for them. I just said, I got enough in my portfolio. Here you go. You take them. Enjoy.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, let's look what the expectations are, really. I mean McCaffrey's under contract he's coming back He's just coming back They're gonna use them Chances are they draft some schlub in the third or fourth round That's what San Francisco does Loved Garendo

Loved drafting him I was the big Garendo guy I will say though I wish they kept Cody Schrader Because I think he'd be getting the touches This week not Garendo I digress Raw talent Blazing speed all that stuff real good

Low End RV2 stuff on a rebuilder why are you holding that you know especially in bestball you're in that kind of format those third those third rounders they can end up sliding into that lineup at some point next year like tracy bucky garendo all third rounders at points last year you're just rerolling that and doubling it i'll take it especially on a rebuilder sometimes it's just a matter i get what you can and give nothing back yeah i agree i like it too i think grendo like he might even come out in this it might be like an absolute scam. And it's like Patrick Taylor on third downs and stuff with how they go.

So I like it. I like just when you get a player like I'm assuming you got him at the most is like the fourth round. He's a free player. Anytime you can make a profit like that, I mean, especially on a Rebuilder on some teams like if I have Grendo, I can't afford to trade them.

But I, I like the deal though. Yeah. I'm looking at. Wow. I'm looking at this right here, April 30th, 20, 24. I got Grendo at the fourth. in a league that I literally just did while we were on air which is going to be the trade I'm going to talk about yeah Mike I think that's the perfect way I think that's that's how you continue to get more dart throws instead of holding on to what was already a dart throw to try to extract as much quote unquote value as you possibly could I think this is a great idea you don't have to hold for it too we always tell our subscribers it's nice if you can get it but you don't have to hold it

out to get it. Sometimes your league is telling you this is the best you're going to get. Get what you can. The 404. That's where I took them. Exactly. That's what's up. So that it just shows that you can't, especially in a draft that has like 26 possible running backs, you're just going to get to re-roll a couple new ones. It's just how it is.

New shiny toy. Exactly. It's not even to say you can't package those two thirds up to go get a second come draft season. Right. It gives you more liquidity to work with. It's going to be easier to move those two thirds, but like leading up to the NFL draft and then your rookie drafts, and it will be Garando at this time next year.

It would be my prediction. So it's smart to get out while you can. Just made a deal. Just went through right now on a team. It probably was my worst draft I've ever had, but we have been recovering ever since acquiring draft capital. took James Winston in this draft in what I could only imagine was the, I can tell you, 1805. We've moved him for a 26 second on a roster that is shaky.

Now, Winston, we talked about Tuesday. Like, I'd spend a third and just hope that he gets the job next year. For the most part, we know this dude is ass when he is asked to actually play quarterback and not just be out there throwing Yolo Yeat balls because the team's already eliminated. type stuff. We know who he is. The Saints decided they were going to play every other quarterback on their roster and a tight end at quarterback

over letting this man play again when you got back for being hurt. No team really wanted to deal with him. He's got a way better PR team that Deshawn Watson has in terms of his off-the-field antics. Generally speaking, he's a fun quarterback for fantasy.

I'm happy to take on a 26 second on this team. 25 you might think why 26 we talk about this a lot I already know where his team's gonna finish in 25 it's he's in the top two spots that's for sure gonna be a back half second I'm looking at this roster and I'm thinking much like our trade that made us friends Mike I went I'm gonna bet against them even though you're in the playoffs this year which kind of pisses me off I was hoping for your downfall

and it didn't come I'm betting against this other manager and I'm gonna bet that I have a better chance of increasing that picks value in 26. I'm not competing in 26, so what do I care? Let's get some thoughts here. What are you selling Winston for? And would you take this without thinking about it? On a rebuilder, I take it. See, I would take this on a contending team, if I'm being honest. I want to get out while I can. Depends on the roster. It really depends on the full context, right? Thomas. It's altrued, right? If it's a lineup league in James Winston's my fourth quarterback on a contending team, you take them.

You can take cool for it. If it's a best. ball league, even if he's my fourth or fifth quarterback, with the, you can keep your second because I'm trying to win a championship and have, you know, four or five quarterbacks on a best ball Superflex roster. He could be invaluable, right? I just need him to have another 40-point week. And I'm going to walk away with this championship. On a rebuilder, this is a home run slam dunk on a team that's in a lineup league and you

already have quarterback depth, home run slam dunk. I think the only thing sketchy would be is if you only had, say, two quarterbacks, going into the playoffs with what we've already seen with quarterback injuries for it seems like the last three damn years in a row trading away for a second and making your roster a little bit more on the variance aspect of it even though maybe he's not starting for you would kind of worry me a little bit because even if it's elite with no trade deadline can i actually buy that kind of production in the playoffs even from rebuilders again you know for that second two years out like who who's going to be, you got to do a little future casting, like, who's going to be willing to deal? And maybe, maybe if you know your league well enough, too, like the guy that you're selling the second two gets eliminated in the first round, whatever, you make it to the semis and you're like, oh, I need that James Winston back.

You want your pickback? Like, you just do a swap. So there's always that possibility. But I would say probably in 60, 70% of the situations, taking that 26 second is money. And I do love what you said to. You're taking a pick that's not already etched in stone on whatever. it's going to be everybody wants the 25 because it's here and now and I can use it and nobody really wants to future cast out a couple years and go man what if this guy's team just absolutely bricks

what if it bricks and 25 and fails you you did that to me in that league unfortunately for you I'm good and the rest of this league usually stinks so it's not working out for you and I still have my 26 picks but we're good we're good I'm having a bad time with that but I'm going to end up feeling good not having Stefan Diggs and Travis Kelsey on my roster. Right. I will say the bounce back of Sir Bryce Young is making me feel good about that. So the end of the day, we're probably walking away like the first trade we ever did. Pretty even.

Yeah. Just chilling. Just how it goes, which is why you can't totally judge a dynasty trade as it happens. We like to talk about it. We revisit a lot of these, but I mean, you don't know until you know years. later same thing with like the quarterback so at the time i got flame for that deal it's what drove mike and i to become friends we mocked the individual in each of our dms making fun of us and we became friends from that now here we are providing content for you guys so that's what

dynasty trades can do for you outside of winning championships it builds friendships if you would that's trades that we've made so we're going to take another quick break and we come back it's time to talk jonathan taylor before we talk to the rookie class we're going to try to make this not two hours long because matchup points is live in an hour so sit tight we're going to get through all this i promise okay buck you posted george pickens or jonathan taylor on the hellscape that is twitter and it was overwhelmingly to the favor of george pickens and you said that that you said that we've lost the plot we've we've lost the plot on Jonathan Taylor I'm

interested to hear why because I have my take on Jonathan Taylor I can't wait to hear what our man Mike here has to say about Jonathan oh I think I know what it's gonna be but I'm interested to find out I have a bunch of stuff for Jonathan Taylor so Buck I'm gonna let you go first here okay yeah so the Pickens versus Taylor thing was I think it stemmed from our last podcast like I had got brought up somehow and I was I picked Taylor you looked at me like I was like like I said something crazy like wait like am I actually like did I lose like what do you like I'm so confused and let me post it on Twitter and see what it does at one point it was like 80 to 20 and then even now I think the poll got

like 40 40 votes I don't have that much clout so but it it was I pick I don't I pick John the Taylor here because I think what Pickens pickings is turned into this like like fake sexy screenshot player where it's like I think we've kind of lost the plot on the running backs a little bit where people pick pickens like the third round and I think pickens is a really good player and he he definitely got better what he's great at and just as a more complete receiver but he's still like I don't again I don't have the numbers I'm unprofessional but he's like a 15 points per game 16 points per game wide receiver and I don't I don't think he has like that big of a ceiling when Jonathan Taylor like he's 26 years old he's a running but he'll be 26 years old and he's a running back an elite one. Like, I know there's, like, those stupid stats or, like, the success rate in Jonathan Taylor's, like, last in it. Like, no, like, I know, I know the dude's not Eric Gray. Like, I know he's talented. I know he has a top one ceiling. Whether I, whether I, like, I understand when he was RB1 overall that it was a week season, right? It was a weak RB1 season. He had one of the weaker RB1 years. They compare him to Devante Freeman, the RB1 overall.

I get it. But he still did it. And he's, when he does run the ball and he's not hurt, which I understand, that's another thing about him. The dude's good. The dude's one of the best, you know, top five running backs in the league. And he's only going to be 26. Like this dude isn't dying. Like, yeah, well, he lose quote on quote, he lose value where he's not worth a fourth round startup pick and he's worth a six. And like Pickens goes ahead of him in startup. So people automatically think they should take him in the trade. No, it's already hard to buy running backs like this. I can find Pickens type receivers. Pickens is still a very flawed receiver. You know, he is NFL young boy. not even without that.

He's just a flawed player that has a chalky his future too. Like we don't know what's going to happen at quarterback. We think it's going to be Russell Wilson next year. If it is, I mean, Russell Wilson will be 36 and we don't know what's going to happen after that. Pickens also is like, be honest, like he's a crash out. Like, who knows what's going to happen with him? And I just rather, like, if I could make that trade and I get some Pickens for Taylor, I want to do that because I know Taylor, I know Taylor has the ceiling.

And I know, like, how my teams are built that I can't get deep. deals like that. I need like if I can send a pickings like he's probably my wider sort of four or five and I probably have Najee Harris is my R-Bron. So I want to make a deal like that and I like a deal like that and I think when we start getting, well we'll talk about Taylor Moore. We start getting this take where it's like Taylor's a cell right. Taylor he's a cell. He's a cell 26-year-old running back on a second contract with a running quarterback and all that like oh we started getting this take. Then it becomes like what are you going to actually get for him? Well he got smoked in

this pickens pole so you're not getting pickings. So, you have to settle for something less. And when everyone like collectively has this Twitter take or not even Twitter, it's a take in general where it's going to, we see it like start to gain. Even like since we talked about Taylor and two weeks ago, it's showing up on Twitter more and more. He's a sell.

He's a sell. And then everyone has this take. Then you're sitting here with Taylor. What the hell do you sell him for? Because everyone knows why you're selling him and everyone also wants to sell him. So what? I'm going to take Josh Jallens in a second. Like no.

So at, especially at his market value, there's just no way I'm selling Jonathan Taylor right now. I'd be buying. And the picket's thing, I understand that's a bigger, you know, a bigger discrepancy. But I would personally take Jonathan Taylor, but that seems like I don't have to pay that. So if I can pay players, like, if I can pay Jalen Waddle types for Jonathan Taylor, like, I want him. Like, I know what I can get.

And I know those dudes are like they're wider super twos. They're just like how we've gotten over the last couple years in Dynasty and in redraft where the wide receivers are just getting pushed and push and push. and everyone wants to build zero RB and build through wide receivers, but don't know how to do it. Like they have, like they, I don't know, they don't have the full recipe,

but like we're losing recipes. They don't fully know how to do it. And then we do things like this. And then Jonathan Taylor's in the fifth round. And then it's just easy money. So that's kind of my take on that. But what do you guys think? I think it's fine.

When you're getting into price into the micro, that matters more than the macro. right we don't want to have a twitter verse take being the reason we're making deals generally speaking if you get the think tank in on a take it's it'll be more profitable for you to go the other way more often than not we've talked about that quite a bit but let's talk about jonathan taylor more to the fact that this guy is just good when he runs the football because some of this stuff matters that i'm going to talk about here in 2021 there were two running backs to finish as an rb one in points per game

and one who finished their unexpected fantasy points per game with fewer than 35 receptions as dalvin cook was the one that finished with both and nick chubd dalvin cook had 34 nick chub had 20 remember nick chub is the best pure runner in the league every time he touches the football that's all you can find on twitter in 2022 there were two there were two It was Derek Henry and Nick Chubb. And expected fantasy points per game, it was Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, were the only other two.

Taylor had 28 receptions. Eric Henry had 33 and Nick Chubb at 27. Damian Pierce just missed it at 13th, by the way, who was only 0.3 expected fantasy points per game off of Taylor. They keep that in mind. In 2023, it was Kyron Mostert, and we know why he was there, Devon A. Chan, Jonathan Taylor, he barely made.

This is a 10-game threshold. He barely made it. And he barely beat out James Connor and Pacheco by 0.01 and 0.02 points respectfully. Karen Williams is the only one to finish in the top tier in expected fantasy points for game. Jonathan Taylor was 15th. In 2024, excluding this last game, I've got something on the last game here. Leading up to this in games played with Anthony Richardson. Taylor was tied with Bijon Robinson at 15.9 expected fantasy points per game tied for 12th. And his RB 2 and points per game was at 13.9 before this game.

Taylor only had five receptions in those games. And Richardson had started and finished six games in those games aside from again, week 13. We're talking about touchdowns. Taylor had four. Richardson had three. One was scrambling. Taylor doubled his carries inside the five, almost tripled. Richardson carries inside the 10 they weren't even using them that way as much in the two games that he's been back

they both had two carries inside the five Taylor had one more carry inside the 10 AR had scored twice there's a clear shift post a R benching which we talked about mike at the top of the show this is how you what we call a tie-in because we're professionals it would nerve Taylor and it had and you might be thinking but tom seven 15.3 fantasy points in week 13. You're out of your mind. He had a great game. Did he? I don't know. 96 rushing yards. Zero of those rushing yards came on explosive runs per fantasy points data. He only forced three missed tackles. He had 33.3% of the carries inside the five. That's what we're supposed to want. 18.5 expected fantasy points. And guess what?

Remember the whole targets and receptions? He had won that game on 50. Routes just so happens he scored on that play and if you watch that replay very easily could have been not a score and an AR run on the ground Because that would have been down at the inch line From where his foot went out Look, we're getting one target a game one reception a game we're relying on touchdowns and carries with a quarterback that is being primed to run more balls in from inside the five than he was before because Stuyken has taken the training wheels off because he's trying to save his job congratulations you have an expensive James Cook with fewer receptions I'm not paying that price for Taylor on

his name value I will just pay for a quarterback down the line running back down the line I'll take Josh Jacobs I'll take Kyron well not Kyrin by next year if we get that quorum narrative like I said whatever other running back is going to fall i'm Jonathan Taylor is now in the range of i'll take the next one because if this is what the offense has for him on a running back who has a hard time staying healthy with his ankles which is a problem that isn't catching passes even when flacco was in he wasn't catching passes guys that was supposed to be the thing flacco is going to unlock the passing game for jonathan taylor it's not good and that's not changing in the near future.

So I'm out. I will take the upside wide receiver at 23 years old who has more touchdowns called back on penalties that aren't his fault for once. I've always said that George Pickens would succeed in leagues where they never called offensive pass interference on him. This time it's holding on his offensive line, etc. He's an expected fantasy points,

demon and yes he's a crash out they're throwing hail marries he's you know hockey fighting jersey over the head upper cutting other players instead of trying to kept the hell mary we get it crash out exciting player i'm willing to make the bet that george pickens is relevant longer than jonathan taylor is at an elite level just a couple of those touchdowns called back on those penalties and we're looking at george pickens completely different and i get it oh what if etc jonathan taylor's a lot the same way what if this happens and what if that happens and what if that happens And we're just at a point now where if this is going to be the Anthony Richardson offense that Taylor is in, his upside is 100% capped. And come startup season, looking into 2025, if he's going to maintain that fifth round asking price, I'm out.

I'll take Montgomery. I'll take all these other guys that slip farther in my opinion. Now, in leagues, if his price is actually going to be manageable and what you can acquire. wire yes I'm more willing to buy but when you really dive in to what Jonathan Taylor does and take away just his name value man it's not good he is a touchdown reliant big play dependent running back without that catch that man scored you 9.7 fantasy points this week it's crazy he caught it though he did catch it I'm happy for him he catches one of those per game it just

happen to be the one he scored on like you're looking at some of these trades you go to dynasty daddy you type him in for two quarterback dynasty start 10 12 team 0.5 ppr and you start looking at some of those deals like jonathan taylor and trevor lawrence for kiler murray all right that's cool i do that you get uh theo johnson a first and a second for taylor now i'll take the first and the second for taylor now i'll take the first second give me Taylor see I wouldn't do that's a 26 one to boot yeah like chances are I'm just gonna side with that pick because again I think I can buy a running back for cheaper that'll give me that same range of outcomes maybe not as often I think I'll be okay with that I'm gonna ask the war daddy here at the

end of this to give us where Jonathan Taylor sits but then you look at some of these trades which I don't think are bloody real Jonathan Taylor for Isaac Garendo and Tyrone Tracy yeah I'll take Taylor like in that case yes so the micro market is going to determine a lot of that league settings is going to determine a lot of that and where your team is sitting but if I'm looking at what's projectable dating back to 2021 the 35 receptions benchmark is bloody important when you look at what that is per game for receptions 35 should be a it's the base for a reason so few guys hit that RB1 status without getting 35 receptions in a year.

There's very few, and they are all the volume touchdown savages, the Kyrin Williams, the Derek Henry's, the outliers. I don't know if Henry is good enough to consistently be that outlier. I think he's going to live consistently in that what-if range.

And I'm going to be out unless the price changes in startups next year. And I just don't think it will because he's young enough. He's got enough name value and he's got the contract. And to me, those are just fake safety nets. Mike, where is Jonathan Taylor sitting in this war? Am I out of my mind?

He's a top 60 player overall on the season, which isn't bad, which isn't bad. And George Pickens is in a very similar boat if you look at the overall for the season. But since week nine, very different stories, John. Jonathan Taylor trending down outside the top 75 George Pickens inside the top 50 that this one was pretty easy for me like between the two and it's not even the player name I like Jonathan Taylor a lot I mean one of the better running back prospects we've ever seen he has produced in the past he's still not like super old anything like that George Pickens isn't anything super special to me like I'm not a huge George Pickens fan either and I used to be on this RB over wide receiver train all the time And then the last, you know, four years of fantasy football happened and showed us that RBs versus wide receivers was always a bad debate for us.

Now this year, all the RB bros are back because we've had a season of elite old running backs not getting hurt and actually producing with this too high shell coverage that we see in the NFL. I'm going to lean the wide receiver pretty easily. Doesn't even have to be George Pickens, pick somebody else in that range of wide receivers somewhere in that, you know, 15 to 22 range of dynasty wide receivers. I will take it over an RB who's definitely trending towards being outside the top 10 in RB rankings for Dynasty. And it's pretty easy. And the big point that I want to make is it's not because of a player take or, you know, Thomas laid out great stats. I like your take on it too with Buck, what you're talking about with running backs and Jonathan Taylor's talent. It's a simple dynasty market acquisition cost.

If I sell Jonathan Taylor now for a receiver like this, I can sell that receiver again. You know, he has pretty insulated value at some point. And when I am ready to compete ready for that running back, I can go buy one very similar to Jonathan Taylor, if not better, for cheaper. You just can't. You want to look at this season, Sequan Barclay didn't cost a whole lot, Derek Henry didn't cost a whole lot, Alvin Kumar didn't cost a whole lot, Joe Mixing didn't cost a whole lot, Josh Jacobs didn't cost a whole lot. And these are guys that are actually winning people leagues right now. In producing at the running back position, they're going to cost less in the offseason over the summer than a George Pickens is going to cost. Just plain and simple.

The market value is going to be very, very different than what you have to pay for these wide receivers that people grasp a hold of. So I'm going to take the wide receiver. I'm still going to flip that George Pickens because I don't really believe in George Pickens long term. But I'm just going to go buy a different running back for cheaper and just pocket the end. extra. You're giving me free money for a position that we have seen historically get banged up, get phased out, here today, gone tomorrow, and I'm getting a wide receiver who even if I don't trade, I have value insulation because that's what people want. This one-year aberration right now of what we're seeing with running backs, I don't think is enough that's going to just all of a

sudden flip the entire dynasty market when it comes to wide receivers versus running back debates. And this isn't even factored in the fact that there's a two-year gap. age, you know, for the ages out there in Dynasty, where it's like George Pickens is only 24. Jonathan Taylor is going to be 27 next year, whatever it is. So give me George Pickens or a George Pickens type all day for Jonathan Taylor at this point. I'll just, I'll figure it out later. I don't need to figure it out now. You're not going to, you wouldn't drop down to like a Waddle, right? You're not taking, you're not taking Waddle or Taylor, right?

No, you need like a decent wide receiver. Like, if I had to give you a range of wide receivers and I'm, I say this all the time on our shows, our unofficial sponsors keep trade cut they gotta hate me at this point because they just laugh at them all the time but George Pick is a wide receiver 14 you know general community consensus Latin McCongney's 15

McCockney easy Rishie Rice for whatever reason still 16 but I'll still take Rishie Rice T. Higgins says Fli don't we don't insult Rishie Rice on this program I will he's ranked way too high T. Higgins Zay Flores Romadunze D. K. Metcalfe. Daveante Smith Jane Reed if that's your flavor

Chris Alave maybe then you get to Jalen Waddle. Like you get to the Lave Waddle range. You would take Rome? Definitely. Definitely. Why? Like, I'm not like, like, I think that's like, we have to make a big bet on Rome.

Like we'll talk about him later. He's not going to be in like a great bucket as right now. Obviously, like, I do think I don't want to get on a tangent about him because we're going to talk about it later. I do think he's a player I'm going to buy like I'm interested in even though his numbers are going to look bad. But he's again kind of like a hypothetical boy. You can really look at some of his stuff. And deep down, his numbers are way, they should be way better than they are. Like, that's the fact.

But I don't like, I don't know. I think if I, like, where I have Rome, someone sent me Jonathan Taylor. I think I would accept that pretty easily. So that's, that's, that one's interesting to me. Rome definitely been and we'll, we'll dive into it, you know, in the rookie conversation. And I'll give my, my spiel on Roma Dunes. But as it stands right now for a running back of Jonathan Taylor being 27. Yes.

Easy. Yeah. I, I'll talk, again, we'll talk about. I traded flowers or I traded Rome for flowers straight up and I'm gonna live comfortably. I feel like in that in that range for me if you're asking me if I would take flowers or Taylor and I'm again I'm just taking flowers and really it comes down to what I laid out with is having projectable we can kind of project it how can I say this so it makes sense every time we're looking at a player and we are projecting his success based on volume and not by the bonuses needed, like I said, the 35 receptions. We're now counting

on volume and touchdowns. I can't help but grimace and think of like Mike Davis type players where every year we have these projectable volume running backs that we're hoping score touchdowns and these offenses that let us down.

I'm not saying he's going to be Mike Davis. In fact, I'm not even saying you should sell Jonathan Taylor now. Wait, because I don't know if you guys have seen that schedule but oh my lord the jonathan taylor schedule down the stretch has the opportunity to go nuts got the biweek this week he's got denver they can be run on tennessee which is a little rough championship game new york giants bucks unfortunate fandom to the new york giants

is attached to this, of course, and I think it's Jacksonville in Week 18. Years ago, when this was a full tilt program, Big Billy, old co-hosts used to say that the last image of a player can be more important than their production. And you might be asking, what do you mean by that?

Mike, when I was on the South Harmon AMA, which everybody should be tuning into weekly, it is a madhouse of a great time. I said on that program with ETN, everyone remembers what he did in the championship game and the week after, and they tend to forget how booty cheeks he was down the back half of that season,

and it helped propped his ADP up. Week 17 and 18 can help prop up Jonathan Taylor's value and his ADP alone. It'll be, oh, he did that in week 17, 18, towards the end of the year, that's what we get to look forward to that's exactly what's going to matter don't sell now

use him if you have him to win that's fine too but come next year I'm going to be on the out train because of everything that I laid out probably going to bite me in the ass it does all kind of come back down to the micro to the macro compared to the macro

anyway but that's the case and so we're going to revisit this next year buck you're welcome for Jonathan Taylor in that league though Oh, yes, I had to pay for that one. Don't even act like I got a discount. There was no deal. I got.

Thanks for Ladidi. I got worked if you would. Let's talk about Amari Cooper, Buck. No, let's not talk about Amari Cooper. Last break, and we're going to come back with a lot when it comes to the 2024 wide receiver rookie class. still try to keep this to under two hours. I promise we're going to do our best to try.

Sit tight right back 2024 rookie wide receivers. Gentlemen, when we look at this class of wide receiver, we can see that there are some good ones. You can also see that there have been some not so great ones when we compare them to other draft classes. When I asked Buck to start collecting some data from the 2023 class so we can kind of compare them and how they stand out. I asked you didn't put QJ and he quote put on the show sheet.

I'm saving my thumb power quote ass. There's some wiggle room for the 2024 draft class to make a bounce back because QJ was still given a lot of grace even though he shouldn't be. Which by the way, Mike, he's still available in our league. If you want to come and get him for that third, come on over. He's still there. He is scoring touchdowns,

although on all broken coverage, but I digress. Let's talk about it. We're going to talk about some rookie war, kind of some thresholds they have to hit, because believe it or not, it's not looking hot.

We can start at the top. I just want to ask when we're re-ranking the wide receivers. I feel like it's important. and it's a fun little game that I want to play. Mike, let's re-rank the wide receivers. Who do you have where? As of now, with what we know heading into week 14.

With what we know heading into week 14, man, this is flipped, at least for me, two or three times so far. But as it stands now, with what we know heading into week 14, wide receiver one of this rookie class, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Okay. Wide receiver two. Malik neighbors. Wide receiver three, Brian Thomas Jr.

Then give me, then give me that, that good lad. That good lad. Scrappy. And then I'll take Roman Zuzza. And once you get past that, it's a whole bunch of who cares. As this is awesome, because we're talking about these. I'm pretty sure that this nice little neon sign that I have back here. absolutely just started on fire oh it went out and now there is a smoke-filled room

something is burning okay so now we have gone from shutting down the stream at south harmon to now setting your house on fire because the content is just blazing it's too good Well, let me know if you do need to leave to take care of that and we'll So far we're good I mean you guys can see through the camera if you see flames back there I will call 911 for you in your area I don't I don't know if it's okay to breathe in you know neon Gas we're gonna find out whatever's in there to be all right if you turn into the Joker halfway through this will send help alright if you would but I I don't mind that it's interesting that you still have Marv at one.

He has been the quote sacrificial X as people have been talking about. No motion stuff. No screens. No real design. They're not using the overrout. When they use his vertical inbreaking routes, which you can find at data. dot fantasy points.com.

See, I'm a company man, Mike. We're going to throw those in there every chance we get, which you can get a bargain on right now. You can see that they're very good when they mix up the routes that he's running. Unfortunately, he's just big enough that they want to use him as the big guy downfield now we're gonna get into the war and what we need to see from him moving forward I trust your process and I trust what you're gonna have to back it up buck

re-rank these rookie wide receivers okay Malik neighbors so I was her one wider server two Brian Thomas Jr. I was here three Marvin Harrison writer four Liddhii I serve five Rome and then I guess nothing after that but six would be Coleman. I'm not saying. That's it. I have it the exact same way. I have neighbors, BTJ, Marv, Ladd, Rome, Coleman and worthless.

Are the wide receivers that I have. So I find that interesting. Now maybe I'm overreacting a little bit with Brian Thomas Jr. And it should be Marv based on where he was drafted and Drew Petzig is kind of ass at his job. And Kyler has kind of been brutal throwing the 4th, football as well. So maybe I'm overreacting, but we've already seen Brian Thomas as a rookie, like, perform at like top 10 all time numbers in his peripherals, which maybe I'm overvaluing

a little bit. We'll see. We'll find out how he goes down in the stretch run. There are some metrics that we like to see people get, get to. I like to use war over time because Mike, you have been really. a front runner in this. I had many talks with your guys in Canton, Ohio when I was there. Your man really coached me up.

Coop coached me up on a lot of this. Love Coop, phenomenal person. Where are these guys sitting in their war right now? And when it comes to predicting future wide receiver ones, where do we need to see these guys really hit the payoff at these ADPs? Because from what I can tell peripherally with the target share numbers, the per outrun numbers, and the fantasy points and expected fantasy points, it looks like the only one that should be hitting that second round ADP is neighbors. Third round, Brian Thomas, and then everyone else. Because just looking at peripherals, if you take away the draft capital boys, the ADP is not landing up with production.

And when we see that kind of stuff, wide receivers tend to fall quickly. Look at what happened with JSN. We can talk about the 2023 numbers, et cetera. What do these guys need to hit for their war to really kind of be predictable in future years? Just a general baseline for me, if I look at them just relative to the wide receiver field, as long as you're hovering somewhere in that top 40 range in your rookie year, because, again, kind of like the Anthony Richardson thing, it does take. people time to adapt to the NFL.

We've gotten so spoiled over the last handful of years with Justin Jefferson coming out and doing what he did, with Chamarchase coming out and doing what he did, and like these instant success stories that we do tend to forget the Jackson Smith and jig buzz of the world, these type of wide receivers

where sometimes it takes a little bit to get acclimated to the NFL, to get acclimated to the offense, and to actually be a professional football player. So as long, just for me, my unofficial baseline is if you're a rookie wide receiver and you're hovering somewhere around that top 40 range you're not just a complete turd burger in your rookie year i will give you a pass like you you have to show me something now there it's a it's a sliding scale if you're outside of

that say you're outside the top 50 i have to have seen something a game i have to see some advanced data i have to see something that gives me the hope that i'm like okay not a complete right off. We have seen these, you know, Buck he put it so eloquently in the show notes with Quentin Johnson, these type of rookie seasons where you just go ass. Like, there's nothing I'm going to say that's going to make this okay

or I want any part of it. These are the roster cloggers. These are the dudes who are just like, write them off. These are the kind of players that are going to be mentioned in the same breasts as the Marvin Mims of the world. They're going to be mentioned in the same breasts as the Traylon Burks of the world. These kind of like hopium ones that we always just, oh yeah, but you know, it still could

happen. It's the wide receiver on the chiefs looking at you, Xavier, worthless. Those are the kind of guys where you go, nah, I'm good. Like, we should just hit the eject button and get out before, before it's too late. But as far as Neighbors versus Marv goes right now and how they rank it warm, if you look at total season, weak neighbors, obviously because of the early part of the season is smashing him. He's a top 15 wide receiver. and wins over a replacement player. Marvin Harrison is wide receiver 31. The crazy thing, though, if you just look at the last,

let's call it the return of Malik neighbors to the lineup because we did miss him with all that concussions. It put an absolute with not all the concussions, but the one concussion, put an absolute just hiatus and a halt to what was going to be an incredibly smash pick for everybody with the tear he was on at the beginning of the season. Since he's come back in week seven, Malik Neighbors and Marvin Harrison are almost dead even in wins over replacement production.

They're both going to hover right around that our wide receiver 25, 26 range. So it is what it is. That's why I say it has changed so much for me, right? Start the season, it was Marv over Neighbors. Not by much. If you like neighbors, cool. That's interesting. To begin the season, first couple weeks, it was like, wow, I was dead wrong on this one.

this is the Malik neighbors train all the way and then he leaves and you're like okay Marv start to do some things start to do some things and he kind of comes back and now it's been this back and forth this teeter this teeter totter and I would say between these two guys specifically

out of everyone Marv gets most of the hate because he was the bigger profile he was a lot of people's 101 even in Superflex lees which was crazy unimaginable not in leagues you and I play in Thomas not in leagues you and I play. But like there was so much more pressure on him than the neighbors. And I think that's why people give him a little bit of hate. Even though by all accounts from fantasy production, he's having a really solid year for a rookie wide receiver of his draft pedigree and profile. I don't really understand where the panic's coming from. I get the neighbors rise for sure because of what he was doing in the early part of the season. But I'm going to sit here today and I would say I probably still side with Marvin Harrison Jr. Although, razor thin.

I mean, coin flip it. If you got one above the other, it doesn't really matter to me. They're in the same tier. The production both looks really, really good. The surprising ones out of the whole mix, Roma Dunzei kind of just being an afterthought of like what happens in this offense when you put a really shitty offense coordinator in there, Shane Waldron. Like this kind of stuff just happens.

It just happens all of a sudden you get to be left in the dust. The surprising ones to me is Brian Thomas Jr. had a massive metric amount of talent, and you actually got to see it with Trevor Lawrence playing. His rise, and to actually see that talent and be an alpha-type wide receiver, has been the most impressive one. And then Ladd-McConniz rise here as of late in a low-volume, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman-led offense, has been super surprising. So those are the big ones where it's like, if you got to board those trains at the right time,

you're just cashing checks to the bank. Like those guys have been really good. I still think for me, I love the talent. I'm not going to divvy too far away from my priors, from my pre-draft process, from my draft process, from the off-season process, because it is a rookie year. And they do need to hit, like you guys said, certain benchmarks. And I think for me, at least, as far as Warp goes, some of the advanced data that I look at, some of watching their film and on play they have for the most part hit those where i'm not

gonna make wild changes because i don't want to get way too off off track where it's like yeah lad macaque should be the wide receiver one of this class like okay buddy you go ahead right that's that is where right we we always say we don't do hot takes on this program we refuse to be the types that say that type of stuff because way more ways for that to go wrong for you and it doesn't help anyone actually do anything. So this poses the question for me before we get into our picks. I'm actually going to scrap the last thing I was going to talk about.

I'm just going to do the Roma Dunesay conversation to end this thing. But what I will say is when you look at players and for me the comp is Jordan Addison's rookie year in 2023, you can look at what Marvin Harrison Jr. is doing and you can kind of go, all right, that's similar enough for me. What if Addison was the wide receiver one on the team and he did that? Would people look at him differently or did people look at Addison the way I did is like a no thank you. I'll pass. He's one of bucks guys. I looked at him and said, well, he's alpha-cucked his entire career. He's in Minnesota. I'm going to pass on that. But the production seems to like you said, where now it's like, well, he actually looks kind of good in terms of what Marv is doing with this production. Does that still warrant the second round price tag that I imagine is going to happen? Because I want to talk about price tags.

201 was where you started to see Marvgo last year as soon as he was drafted neighbors was into that third round I believe Rome was a four five guy he was he was he was a three he ended up in into the third okay yeah mid three looking at their production right now do you are you kind of looking at it getting ready for draft season because that's obviously coming up for us very soon if you haven't already you've done a couple start I've done a couple already so far I imagine startup season is fully on the way here soon are you as confident now knowing what we know picking these guys at these projected spots because if you have the opinion that the rookie seasons aren't actually as bad as maybe it seemed like I'm gonna guess

I'm more out of line thinking these are way worse I don't want to touch them at their ADP etc what's gonna be the cutoff for you are Are you thinking about it? Are you sitting there going like, oh, if Marvin Harrison's there at 25, 26, there's no way. Do you have no concerns at all? Because that's kind of the vibe that I'm getting. I have a ton of concern. I don't want to draft these guys.

I will draft neighbors at 25, but maybe I'm just a sucker for the expected fantasy points and the points per game. Do you have a cut off with some of these guys? Or are you still just going to be hunky dory with what their price is projecting right now to be? I'll say I'll be more hunky dory on what their price is going to be in the offseason for startups simply because of the fact that this upcoming rookie class right now as far as hard hitters and people that you would project to man there's going to be this rookie and this rookie and this rookie that's going to have so much hype that's going to drive these guys down just doesn't exist I mean right now I see in the dynasty streets people are having this argument super flex leagues

you know ashton gt locked in 101 we're talking about it a damn running back in the year of 204 being the 101 pick in a super flex league very bejean of him very bejean of them without any of the real talent that bejohn had which is a scary proposition this is where we're this is where we're at right now with this rookie class i'm not saying it's terrible it's actually surprisingly has some good depth but that's what this class has going for upcoming is the depth and running backs wide receiver production you maybe have one or two that are going to even sniff Brian Thomas Jr. level of excitement coming in to the draft.

Like that is a, that's kind of a scary proposition. Then you look at quarterbacks, there's no, there's no like big, Cam Ward was a nice surprise this year, but it's not like the Jaden Daniels going to win the Heisman, could he be the next Lamar Jackson type hype coming in?

There's not Caleb Williams, we know what he was as a freshman all the way up through it type quarterback. There's a Shador Sanders, there's a Cam Ward, and then there's a bunch of dudes that maybe, maybe don't get the draft capital that we're not all that excited about. So when you look at startups and if you include rookie picks in it, who's pushing these dudes out of their spots right now?

Who's pushing neighbors? Who's pushing the Dunezay out? Who's pushing Marvin Harrison, Ladd McCongty, Brian Thomas Jr.? Who's going to be the next group to push these guys down? In the past, we've always had it. It felt like these wide receiver group coming in year after year after year into the NFL. It was like the next evolution.

And it's like, oh my God, there's five more. There's six more. How are we going to fit all these guys in? People have to move. This year when you look at it, it's like, do they really have to move? Like, does anybody in the top 15 actually fluctuate a position in Dynasty wide receiver ranks? I'm going to say no.

And it's kind of the similar thing on the quarterback front. When you look at the top 15 there, do you go, does anybody actually move? So if you've already hit these benchmarks as far as production goes, you're hitting some of the benchmarks in the advanced data, advanced analytics. of it and your film looks good, as long as you're not a complete turd burger, you're probably not moving that much because we're going to be thirsty

as hell for in a startup. What do you want to take? Do I really want to invest in Keenan Allen or Terry McLaren for one more year, even though production was really awesome? Or am I going to look at that nice shiny number next to the name that I'm drafting and go,

this dude's 22, Terry's going to be 30? Yeah, I can I can talk myself into a younger player and a startup much more easy than you can just production. And there's nobody else there to really have that debate with. Like, is it this guy or this guy? Some of these are already going to be made for you. All the young wide receivers are going to come off the board and you're going to be sitting there going well, though.

The only other one is Marvin Harrison. This is it. Otherwise, I'm dipping into a good number two in Devante Smith. Or I'm digging into a free agent T. Higgins going to a new place or whatever conversation you have to have to to kind of talk yourself into taking somebody other than, you know, Omar at that point. Keeping in mind the guys like Michael Pittman Jr. That seemed to hover around there, the DJ Moors, et cetera,

getting to a point where they might not be as much of a focal point in those fourth, fifth rounds. I didn't look at it that way. I hadn't been looking at it that way. And that was a bar when you think about who is going to push these guys out of where they're at their ADP. You're going to be having internal conflict, right? The AJ Brown's getting a little older. He was already a late second pick last year.

You're right. I can definitely see this. Like, J.S.N fell a little bit. He fell into the seventh round. He obviously, he was projected to have a slow rookie year. He's having a weird sophomore year, but I imagine his price is going to move up. But you want the young sophomore rookie projected

good players. I imagine Zay moves up unless he continues to struggle here a little bit down the stretch. I like that a lot. I love that explanation a lot. Last thing I want to get to in this program, you and Buck seem to be on opposite side of the Rome-A-Dunzei conversation. Now, I have been, I sold the only one I had, like I had mentioned, it was for Zay Flowers. Maybe Adunzei ends up having the production that Zay Flowers is having this year with Lamar at some point, I was willing to take the bet that he was not and that even if he did, I would not feel too bad about it because I think Zay is good. I think Zay is a good player.

You're going to live in that 15 range. And I'm okay with that. I don't need every receiver to be a top 12. There's only 12 of them every year. So if you're hovering around that 15 with a chance of ending up in that 12, a couple weeks of the year. I'm living pretty good a wide receiver, let's say.

Let's talk about Rome because you sound like you still very much believe, and Buck seems to be a little bit more skeptical. So I want to start with Buck, and we'll let Mike have the last word of the episode this week. Buck, where are you at with Rome?

Yeah, so it's kind of, I don't know, it's iffy. I think I want to buy him if his price doesn't hold. Like, he would have to fall pretty drastically because we could make excuses for some of the numbers and we can make excuses for Shane Waldron. You know, we know that JSN, like, hated him and the players don't like him. But when you look at it, I still don't want to ignore. Like, he's at 1.36 yards for outrun. And regardless of if we make excuses for that or not, like, I just don't really want to bet a premium pick on a player that's under two.

Like that's, and when I watch Rome, I mean, he doesn't like look great. Like, I'm not a film guy. I don't know, but he doesn't look great to me. And also, I do know this. Like, I have this stats from Scott Barrett. Romo Dunzee has the lowest catchable target rate in the NFL, 62.2%. He ranks 12th in air yards, 1,063, but 44th in air yards, just 427. So he's leaving, like, they're leaving a lot out there with, like, you know, OC stuff

and Caleb Williams just not, like, always hitting on the deep shots. They have too much Keenan Allen on the offense. Like, hopefully that changes next year, but now Keenan Allen is finally playing well. I think with Rome, I think he's like, he's a dangerous bet. We talk about like what the most dangerous assets are in Dynasty, right? And it's like, are they picks? Are they quarterbacks? Are they running backs?

So honestly, players like Romo Dunsay, right? Where we have to bet a probably still a fourth round, fourth on a fourth round starter pick on him. So I have to value him around Widerstero, 17. I would assume, like around there and a starter people go in the top 20. And the bottom could just fall out on a player like that. Like, we're kind of betting on hopium and not even, just like on projected change he has nothing i mean maybe maybe you could tell me like if i'm wrong

as far as like the advanced not even advanced analytics but the things i like like targets for outrun target share yards for outrun he doesn't hit like any of those benchmarks he actually comes like pretty down low like he's in a pretty rough bucket so now like i obviously don't know what's going to happen i'm not you know i don't know everything about film i don't know i want to bet on buckets and he's not going to be in a bucket that is very like good like you want to give yourself a best chance at kind of making a calculated bet instead of directly betting on the player. Like, oh, I love Romano Zay coming out, this, that, like, I want to bet on him because I want to, like I see what the rookie year tells me, and I want to at least be cognizant of that.

And Romo Duse was, at least for me, from the big three receivers coming out, he was in the big three, right? It was him, Marvin neighbors. They were the top three. He was the worst analytically. He had some of the, he was the worst of the three analytically. But he was sub to 2.0 yards for route running college. He was also like a, I don't, again, this is over so far from the prospect stuff.

I don't remember exactly. He was like a 20% target share guy. And a lot of it was like, you can make excuses. Oh, he was playing with two other NFL guys, right? He's playing with Jalen Macmillan and he's playing with the Patriots guy, Jalen Polk. And like both of those guys kind of suck. But they still got, they both got day two capital. So it's like, okay, maybe that's why the yield yards were, it's kind of like Bama receivers.

Like we never know. like the BAM receivers analytics are never going to be good because they play in the rooms are too good they play with too much talent like Jalen Waddle smitty like they're just never going to flash analytically with 2.5 yards for route run and 25 percent target shares because they play with way too many people like it's just it's similar to like back with the USC the you know the USC room with pitman and ARSB and all them like they're just not all going to have 30 percent target shares doesn't mean they're all not good so he we kind of bypass some of the analytical stuff with Roe's coming out he still gets top 10 or top nine capital whatever it was and now it's like he's

kind of still the same analytical player as he was in college so is it is it an offensive coordinator thing is it a Caleb Williams thing or is it like who he is I don't think I hope he's not a 1.36 yards for outrun player but if I have to pay premium price to find out then I'm out but if I can buy it like you said like Terry McLaurin types like if I can buy around that range like I'm more than happy at doing something like that players that already know like what they are like they're teetering off and done like I'm good with that but if I have to pay like like we said Jonathan Taylor I would just take JT but I would like to hear your point though so one one other thing just to keep in mind on Roma Dunzee too when you look at the whole season

profile right not just the Shane Waldron thing terrible offense coordinator which which is so funny because I compare these guys a lot right I'm going to compare them a lot JSN's rookie season Roma Dunsay's rookie season from a warp perspective is very, very, very similar. I mean, they're within thousands of a point between each other. They're very similar. Funny that they had the same offense coordinator in the rookie year. Like, it's hilarious. That's what they were given. And they both kind of struggled. JASN was a lower drafted wide receiver than Roma Dunzee from dynasty standpoint, from the NFL standpoint, still had pretty good hype coming in.

The worst JSN ever got in Dynasty Value in the offseason was somewhere around the wide receiver 22, 23 range. Just kind of hovered out in that range, even with the subpar rookie year. A lot of people were kind of having this conversation with themselves about do we panic on them? Is he even worth a six-round startup pick in the off season? And I think now that we've given a time and you see his ascension now back to like, oh, wow, he really was a good wide receiver. You know, now he's approaching top 12 wide receiver territory. Like, this is where it's coming. This is what I talk about with Roman Dunesa, where I don't want to be the guy who goes,

oh, I'm completely out because of a rookie year, a guy with a terrible offensive coordinator, a guy, you know, with all these data points that you keep putting in about the situation isn't the greatest. You also got to remember, he played for weeks with an MCL sprain, where we also thought he wasn't going to play games. pretty significant knee injury for a wide receiver, especially a young one coming out, going like, man, he's a little banged up too. Like, he's kind of got this little bit of Kyle Pitts injury thing where it slows people down. Like, there's some excuses to be made for him, and I think his production has still been

good enough for me where it hasn't been a complete turd burger. It hasn't been, wow, DJ Moore's just out here flat dominating every single week. And Roma Dunes, they can't do anything. Or Cole Comet is out here, you know, being a first read option for this team. team in Roma Dunesay is a complete afterthought. The coaching staff still wants to get him involved. They've still been using him. Him and Caleb seem to have a pretty decent rapport.

And I think he's still learning how to play in the NFL. And the talent has definitely been there for him. So if the dynasty value is going to stay within that range where people are still going to, like me, make enough excuses for him where there's not going to be this overwhelming panic, for a guy heading into a second year, that's something I still want to be invested. That's something I still want on my dynasty teams because there is some insulation built into it. Not a lot of these wide receivers, even from this past off season, who are top 20 wide receivers, have flat bricked in value even on bad years this year. I mean, Michael Pittman is probably the best case example, but that was a dude, that was a dude, you know, I mean, he's been in the league for multiple years at this point.

It wasn't like, oh man, Michael Pittman got propelled because he was a sophomore. none of that like it took a few years of Michael Pittman and this Anthony Richardson situation and him having this bad back and being hurt to go like all right now you're in wide receiver 40 territory like this is where Michael Pittman's at in dynasty right now and even you buck we talked about the trade like you're trading for Michael Pittman because you think there's going to be a bounce back but that is like worst case scenario for Roma dunzae and you would still have that allure of of the upside play. So in Dynasty, like for these wide receivers, these are the kind of players

that I want to invest in. If there's a little bit of a slide, a little bit of a panic, I want to hit them on the way down and not try to catch them again on the way up. Because if you are out on JSN until these last few weeks and now you're like, man, I got to get some JSN on my team, you're going to pay out your ass for it. Like it's going to cost you. You then just went like, I got to see it first. I got to see it first. And if you were waiting, see all the time in dynasty and you don't have a little bit of projection or don't understand a little bit of the value insulation game, you're going to be left paying the iron price for a lot of people. And in some of these leagues, I mean, you guys know, you guys play in quite a few leagues.

Some people just flat aren't aren't going to trade them. Like, it's not even a conversation. Some people are like, no, that's my favorite player. Like, you're not getting them. Get out of here. You didn't want him. You didn't want him. When I was questioning them, now you're definitely not getting him now that he's producing. Like you have to pay the iron price. So if you don't want to miss out on some of these, sometimes you've got to be a little bit risky. And I would say this with these wide receivers,

especially these young ones, these rookies coming out, it's not as risky as you think. It's not that bad. It's not that bad because there is some insulation. If you see some things towards the end of the season, you still don't like, if you hear some talk in the off season, when the deep dives come in about who the new coaching staff's going to be

and what system they're going to run and who the offense coordinator is and you get the training camp reports of how they're doing or not doing. If you're still worried then, then sell, because the value is probably going to be the exact same as it is today

as it's going to be in August of next year. Okay. What you're saying is there's just safety in the pick a little bit. There's, there's, you've got a little bit of wiggle room. I think you're right for the most part.

I think he has to show something. I think he has to show something. I think he has to show something for me to personally be willing to buy. I think there's going to be some other adjacent wide receivers given the approach that you're saying that you think is going to end up happening where he still just kind of raises a little bit of value, if not stays where he was. Like Buck said, he ended up in the third round, even if he falls in the fourth round. I think there's going to be some other receivers that I'm interested in say the pickings types etc that are probably going to hover in that area

as it is lad perhaps if you're going to pit him versus other rookies that might be in that or I guess sophomores at the time they're going to be in that range I'm probably staying away if he doesn't show me something but if I were to take away anything from that it's not to be too cautious believe in sophomore breakouts like you said, we have been spoiled a lot by rookie wide receivers.

It's okay to take those chances. If you're a good enough manager to recover, which I think isn't talked about enough, if you're not a trade savvy person, you may be less inclined to go after these guys to think that I'm still going to be able to get something out of it in the end. That's always important to look at, but definitely soon as we do,

we have some people in the Discord that are way in on Rome that very much so still believe those are the types you're saying those are the guys you're just not getting them even if you want to buy in on them you're just not i think there's opportunity to go get i'm one of those guys that sold definitely possible if you look at some of the recent trades he's wider zero 19 i'm on kutra cut right and if you look at the dynasty daddy trade like we always do with him he's not totally inexpensive but he's not way out there like this says zay flowers for roman a first i feel like I got a deal there talking with the deal that that I made that deal was made a day ago

we got lad for Rome straight up so it's somebody just making a player take bet if you would we've got D-K for Ben Sinat and Roma Dunezay I think that's fine you've got Rome or jaden read in a 25 second I think that's fine both ways you've got Derek Henry for Roma Dunesay which insane assonine type deal that's crazy to me for a long-term projection but rome for a 26 first and a third these are reasonable trades that you can make that can still pay off at whatever these players prices are going to be if you're a market watcher heading into 80p season i think you both in a way hit the nail in the head lots of different ways you can go with that that's going to do it for the program today mike always a phenomenal

great time you guys have so much content over at south harmon you guys have made some big changes for any of our subscribers that don't know why don't you let them know what south harman can provide and where they can get at you guys go check out the website south harmon ff com warp tool lots of good stuff over there plus it's got the links to all the great articles t racks always writing good stuff over there man under appreciated how how much effort in time he puts into his articles not only does he write great points which help you in your fantasy and dynasty leagues but he's also one of the master like storytellers i think i've ever seen when he writes articles uh i read them on the pooper because

that's where i like to do all my my leisure activities it's on the crapper so south harmon fff dot com you can come check out the youtube page south armand fantasy football we got a new youtube page if you're not that in the fantasy football and sometimes you just want to relax and you know maybe a game show maybe talk about shoes culture whatever it is Phiz and I South Harmon vibes new YouTube page we got going on over there just had a massive Black Friday game show edition it was good Fizz lost so he owes me a brand new pair of a Lamello teenage mutant ninja turtle basketball shoes when they drop unfortunately for him you guys aren't playing for little kitty prizes these are

that's a big boy prize right there I saw Buck face light up a little bit as soon as you said lamello bucks a basketball boy if you would so he definitely appreciate guys the link to that is going to be in the description you don't have to go far i'm going to drop the links right there wherever you're listening to this go check that out you can follow mike on twitter and on his socials at iowa michael that link is going to be in the description as well check out everyone's content over there again great work wouldn't have you on here if i didn't believe in your work and you personally buck and i obviously going to be back next week carrying this on might dive into a little bit

bit of rookie stuff if you didn't hear we have bright wet brett oh my goodness brett whitefield on next week for the tuesday night dynasty points live and the wednesday podcast rob going to do a too early rookie tier show for the top 24 in his super flex rankings already can't wait for that as always hit subscribe if you're listening to this you on on sunday morning you could have got it friday morning if you went to the dynasty points podcast feed for buck myself big shout out to mike for joining us all love remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose in your best days well they're always spent tilting good night everybody