Fantasy Football Daily - Ryan Heath's Week 1 Fantasy Football Takeaways: What You Need to Know!

Episode Date: September 14, 2026

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Ryan Heath's top takeaways of week one here on fantasy football daily. Welcome to the show, Ryan. It's been, we've been very excited to have you on. This is going to be a weekly segment in season. We're recording this Sunday night while Sunday night football is going on. You put out this massive threat every week. We're going to hit all of the top takeaways from each week of the season with Scott and Brett. For new subscribers, please hit the subscribe button and turn notifications on.

We are doing this every single day. We're helping you win fantasy leagues every single day we're here. So make sure you stick with us for the whole season. All right, Ryan, how are you, man? Hey, I'm doing great guys. Yeah, just coming off the rush, the sugar high of week one, the first full Sunday slate, highs and lows. But yeah, I feel great. I dug into the data.

We can get some initial takeaways here. I can start thinking about next week. So I'm doing great. All right, cool. Scott, you've kind of built some framework around how you want to steer the conversation. Let's just jump right in to the low hang fruit. Yeah, but I think everyone's top takeaway this week is, oh, my God, the Chicago Bears. And so rather than let Ryan steer the ship right now, I want to give you the chance to apologize, Brett, to all of Chicago, admit defeat, say you were wrong.

Caleb Williams is him. and the bears are going to break a ton of records this year. And we should have been all in on all of their guys from a fantasy perspective. Why do you do this? Why are you like this? This isn't interesting content. It's one week. Week one's often a liar.

And you want me to- Is that the tact you're going with? No, I'm not done. I'm in the middle of talking. You want me to capitulate to a take based on a game in which Caleb Williams had to do absolutely nothing. He didn't have to throw a single pass. in this game and they would have won. You realize that? They had 290 rushing yards and six

touchdowns. So why are why of all weeks would you do this this week? Because this is fantasy football and Caleb Williams. Konami Caleb. I've never said Caleb Williams is a bad fantasy player scored 37. I've never said I've never said Caleb wins is a bad fantasy player. I've said he's not a very good quarterback or hasn't been to this point. Well then the one, hey, Here's the thing. The one thing I'll give Caleb credit for is he ran the damn offense today. Stayed out of his own way. Congratulations on that, buddy. Good work. We'll see you next week. What does it say about Ben Johnson and the supporting cast that an incompetent quarterback and Keelow Williams can commandeer an offense that just dropped 60? No one said incompetent either. You're putting words in my mouth on both sides of the words. What are the words? Let me write these down. He has been mostly overrated quarterback at this point in his career.

he hasn't functionally ran an offense at any point in his college or professional career all right well he just commandeered an offense that dropped 60 points and ben johnson earlier this offseason said i want to have the highest scoring offense ever it's not enough to just say our goal is to win the super ball i want to break the 2013 Denver broncos points per game record of 37.9 and what did we see in week one we saw 59 points, the second most by any offense in week one all time. But the combined points, their 59, Carolina's 37, is easily the most in a week one in NFL history. And I think that's really the big thing here.

It's not just that this Chicago offense was so incredible. It was that their defense was so utterly awful. Bryce Young, 361 passing yards, three touchdowns. to give you context on how shit that is. Bryce Young had only three games over 206 passing yards all of last year. And so you have this perfect storm here where you have this generationally elite offensive play caller who likes to run up the scoreboard, doesn't want to take his foot off the gas, this elite supporting cast, really good receivers who Ben Johnson can scheme open

at will. What did I say about Caleb Williams is like, I agree with your accuracy concerns. it seems like beyond an impossible to fail setup. It seems like an impossible not to be great set up. And it looks like that's what we have when you have all that on offense. Plus what really realistically looks to be a bottom three, bottom five defense. It's like the glory days of Drew Brees and Sean Payton when they had, you know, like a historically bad defense.

And so like I'm very careful not to overreact to week one. That's maybe the thing we should have led. off with is that's what people do every year. And I'm always begging you, Ryan's always begging you in the Everything report, is you want to underreact to week one. You don't never want to overreact. Your instinct should be to underreact. Why? Because, you know, the game of football is all small samples, but like with small samples, you have to have lower confidence. And right now, all we have is a one game sample. And it's, it's 100% of our sample. So it seems massive. But like, what happens? in week one last year is everyone was like oh should i should i drop exodia quarterback drake

may because he just got his ass kicked by the raiders uh is keon coleman going to be a league winner because he just uh was top three in fantasy points on the week and this happened sammy watkins week one week one got the bengals sucked this week one he suck every week one it's really especially in today's day and age you know where we've we've lost games in preseason the starters play less and less really just like the fourth week of preseason, weird shit happens, but this is not one I want to underreact to. I have one massive takeaway here, and that's that DeAndre Swift should have been an exodia. And I came very close to, it's been keeping me up at night. I went on Wolf, shout out Wolf of Roto Street. I went on his show, and there's a clip that he's certainly going to post on social

this week where I was just like, I, I, like, it keeps me up at night. Like, he should have been in Exodia. I don't know. Like I, and, and yeah, I mean, it looks exactly like that. Just, you know, the, the hyper efficiency last year, despite being on the injury report, 14 different times. And then through three quarters, he had 16 carries to Monongai's four.

He had three touchdowns and 124 yards. just about 20 touches. And he was kind of chopped liver. Everyone was chasing Colston Loveland, Luther Burden. I was as well, of course. And he was kind of the afterthought. And then he got this big contract a couple days ago. And I think that really solidified it to me. If there's anything I'm overreacting to this week, it's that. So tell me, Ryan, am I overreacting? Do you think I'm wrong here? Do you think, yeah, it's just, hey, they went nuclear this week. It's not like that Miami versus Denver game where A. Chan and Boster had like five touchdowns and 400 yards.

But that wasn't what happened every week, certainly not. What do you think here, Ryan? I think you're right in that I also came away from this saying I was far too low on DeAndre Swift. And I think like you, I had it in my mind. This could just be one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, kind of the way that, we can always easily benefit from what's the most efficient offense, who what team is always leading is you go for the running back that everyone sees as kind of gross, kind of inefficient, even though that wasn't the case at all for Swift last year,

where he's just an efficient running back when he's playing under Ben Johnson. Like, no, that's so surprising. It seems like every running back is, but it works for him in that sense. He consolidated all of the high value work both last year and here in week one where he's the one getting the lion's share of the goal line work of the receiving work what we care about most for fantasy football yeah i had moved swift up later in the off season but i wouldn't i didn't ever allow myself to move him ahead of david montgomery and basal toton and now i'm wishing i had now now i think i would take swift ahead of either of those two rest of season. And that is a mistake that I feel like I made as well.

So something I said last week amidst all the Caleb hate was there's a very real scenario where you turn over the cards and it's revealed that who wins fantasy championships in 2026 is just the team who had the most bears on their roster. And week one, it really seems to be, hey, if there's power law players, there's power law offenses. This looks like a power law offense, except, you know, people were losing their minds over Romo Dunezay, who had a very quiet day. Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, who had a very quiet day. But one of those players was not Khalif Raymond.

who was the team's wide receiver. What happened there? Clef Raymond knows the offense. Luther Burden doesn't. Colson Loveland doesn't? They were on this team last year. I'm just saying like, we knew Clefram was going to be a big part of this offense.

I don't know why that's shocking to you. We've talked about it. No, we didn't. Yeah, we did. Ryan, did you know that CaliFlea was going to be a big part of this offense? Yeah, no. This is absolutely news to me. as well. Kalif Raymond has always been at like a nice efficient role player in Ben Johnson's

offense. What producer Trey has up on screen right now is the wide receiver and tight end leaders in EPA per target from 2022 to 2024 when Johnson was OC at Detroit where Khalif Raymond was playing. Basically the and Brett can like correct me if I'm wrong on the technicalities here, but Basically, he was the direct backup to Amunerah St. Brown or kind of like that role, but scale down to a very part-time sort of way, right? This is, yeah, all players with 50 plus targets over that time frame, a top 10 efficiency EPA per target player, over two yards per route run on a 600 route sample in that three-season sample. And it is basically like the Amon Ross St. Brown role, the half inside, half outside, Ben Johnson type of thing. How many times his Scott talked about, we just need to chase the Ben Johnson slot receiver for every single year in fantasy football.

It kind of was Khalif Raymond this week, which is very surprising. Yeah, a 31% target share, which is, I believe, a career high for Raymond. He only has one other game above 24% over the last five years. This is an NFL player in his 10th year in the league. This is very odd. Players almost never come completely out of nowhere from a fantasy perspective in the way that Khalif Raymond would, if anything even close to this, were to keep up.

So everybody is probably going to say this week, like, don't worry about Carlson Loveland, Luther Vernon, all these Bears players. Caliph Raymond isn't real. Like, don't even go chase Khalif Raymond on the waiver wire. But I'm kind of looking at this, at everything I just laid out and saying, honestly, I think you probably should. Even if it's a 5 to 10% chance that Khalif Raymond continues to be anywhere close to like a full-time

player or a fantasy relevant player, if he does, I think that's like a league winner off the waiver wire based on everything we just said in terms of the Bears being a power law offense. So he's one I'm while I'm not like using this as a reason to believe. Oh, Borden, Lovelland, all these guys are cooked. That's like not what I'm saying. I do think just on on the off chance that this is anywhere close to real. I think you want pieces of this offense. You can add guys like Khalif Raymond for probably pretty cheap off the waiver wire.

And again, my guess is the industry will like think this is fake for at least a week. So yeah, that's just kind of my thoughts on. him I don't know in terms of you Brett can this keep up it from like a real football perspective is he just I'll give Brett his chance to shine but real quick crazy stat for you this week only three players had a higher target share than Khalif Raymond it was JSN Amunrah st. Brown and Puka Nakua I I refuse to believe this is real and if you look at the snap share the route share it probably probably isn't I kind of want to believe this is just like madman ben johnson you know he had three weeks to put in the week one install it's

like hey you know what let's just have caliph raymond go off just so we put this on tape and give defenses a little something extra to think about this is what i want to believe but i know that brett kind of brett was a major luther burden skeptic and part of his reasoning was hey he he he couldn't beat out olimidi zakias last year what makes what makes us think he could beat out Khalif Raymond. And so I know he, if any, if this is real, he might be the only guy who called it. So you're time to shine, Brett. Well, yeah, I've, I've mentioned it on multiple shows. I wasn't predicting like a Khalif Raymond breakout, but just more of like he's going to be an annoyance. It was one of the reasons I did not want you to select Luther Burden as in Exodia because I like Roma Dunes a lot.

And I think Caleb Raymond's a pretty darn good football player who is coming at, you know, Ben Johnson brought him here for a reason. reality yeah I want to live in that timeline it is what it is I said and I also set it back on this very show with Graham Barfield we talked about Caleb Raymond so um some some positive things though here on the Luther burden front Caleb Raymond was not the primary slot receiver today that was Luther burden in fact so the Ben Johnson slot role was still going to Luther burden Caleb was playing mostly in the James and Williams role which I you know for what it's worth you know I and I know the the lower a dot stuff was know they were throwing caliph a lot of like short area stuff design stuff shallow crossers but

um yeah you know lutherburn i think he 30 routes run from the slot to caliph raymond's 15 or something like that so i think that's a positive for for you know moving forward i think you do want that role so okay well well ryan what about colston loveland who had zero catches on two targets but led the team and routes run. How worried should we, or does it not really matter? Because it's not like people were drafting this guy in the first five rounds of their draft when, when they could have Isaiah likely Dallas Goddard or Don Kincaid in the double digit rounds, right?

So point taken in terms of we should always just fade the early tight ends. Victory laps. That should be illegal. I apologize. Flag on the play. My bad. Hey, yeah. Hey, all of our late round tight ends.

guys absolutely went off this week. So I mean, I'll take the victories where they can be. But yeah, for me with Loveland, the primary like concern troll that I felt like you were doing to me throughout the offseason and that I think the Loveland skeptics were doing was, well, are we really sure it's real that he's going to be a full-time player and run enough routes? It only happened for like five games. The Bears went to like these two tight end sets for so much of their offense at the end of the year. Is that really sustainable? Is that actually how they want to run their team? And it seems like it is, or at least it is the case that they want Loveland as a full-time player. We have like a decent NFL sample in terms of Colston Loveland commanding targets at a very strong clip. I believe it was

more than Brock Bowers in terms of targets per outrun last year when Loveland was playing full-time. So yeah, I mean one game where again, it's week one and the offense. is just doing silly stuff the entire time going for 60 points. Like to me, the biggest takeaway is Loveland was a full-time player. This offense looks like it's going to be absolutely awesome. I think I'm like fine, just rolling into week two with that and not really changing my opinion of Loveland. In terms of thinking that this year,

I do think he can like get challenge at least to get up into the Brock Bowers, Trey McBrillan. pride, like, top fantasy tight end tier. I still think that's in his range of outcomes, given what we just saw from this offense. Because, yeah, it was really built around him at the end of last year. He was easily leading this team in targets and usage and everything. So just one game, that's not enough to get me off of that.

Loveland, he played the most snaps of the skill group by a lot. He'd like 20 more snaps played than Luther Burton. Did Rome get hurt in this game? He got hurt last year. Did he get hurt in this game? I'm just wondering because Jada Walker. Yeah. I didn't see anything in the game.

How is his separation? He entered the week hurt from what, what I understand. Oh, that's right. He was on the injury report earlier in the week. Okay. That makes sense. Yeah, they had a fourth receiver play like,

run like 30 routes, which is kind of crazy. And then Sam Roush played 12 snaps in himself. So they were in 12 percent of the time, which is kind of crazy. All right, let's move on. Are we good with the Bears? Yeah, well, I just, I want to say this.

Let's, let's bump the brakes on record setting stuff. They played the Carolina Panthers today. Carolina Panthers suck. Last year, they were a top five defense against quarterback, so. Okay, well, the year before that, they were historically bad. So I'm just saying, I guess the run. Yeah, against the run. Yeah, they gave up 291 years.

Yeah, that's true. That's fair. I was just thinking about Caleb Williams leading all quarterbacks and fantasy points, but, yeah. Well, is he, is he going to be a QB1 this week? Oh yeah, the rushing stuff. I forgot about the rush. Yeah, a really cool stat on Caleb Williams is that last year, there were only three instances of a quarterback breaking 20 miles an hour,

and they were all Caleb Williams. And then he did that twice in week one on both of his touchdowns. The guy is like a really under, like he's a phenomenal athlete, and he does have that in his bag. And so it's just a matter of how much the bears feel like, they need to pull that out of their bag. The Bears play the Vikings next week and the Eagles the week after. We will have a very good idea of where this offense is after week three, no doubt.

So Luther Burden is one exodia. Our next item is to talk about the other remaining exodias. And so, Ryan, I'll let you take it. What are your thoughts on Parker, Washington, Mike Evans, David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks. Has anything changed for you? based on where you were a week ago? I'll start with the guys where it hasn't changed or I feel like what we just saw confirmed my thoughts.

Parker Washington had an awesome game, especially for a game that was over very quickly. 26% target share, 19.3 fantasy points from Parker Washington. I just went ahead and updated kind of the split that Scott and I have been constantly talking about with Parker Washington, which is since the Jaguars buy last year, including the playoffs, uh, in nine fully healthy games, 17.7 fantasy points per game, uh, over 83 receiving yards per game. He's basically been a top six fantasy wide receiver since the buy. Uh, and since

like Travis Hunter became no longer involved in the offense and Washington had a full time role, right? So we just saw a continuation of that this week in week one, uh, the Jaguars, absolutely stunted all over the Browns. There were only like a handful of pass attempts even in the second half. It was just, yeah, like it could have been so much crazier if this were a competitive game. Other notes like Brian Thomas Jr. left for a little bit, but he returned eventually. I don't think that's really going to affect Parker Washington or my thoughts on him. another exodia

Mike Evans obviously he played a few days ago I feel good about Evans at this point I had a stat which is not in this thread producer tray apologies we didn't pull that one up ahead of time but a really large percentage of the 49ers dropbacks were just screens

or like actual throws beyond the line of scrimmage to Mike Evans that was like the entire offense Evans had like six like six of his seven targets like converted first down five of them on third down. It was just completely all day. That was all they were doing. Yeah, he looked awesome. I feel very good about Mike Evans. David Montgomery, I think this one's interesting.

And I'll probably like toss this one back to you, Scott. Obviously we got what we wanted. We got three touchdowns from David Montgomery in week one. and the usage was pretty good. All five of the backfield touches inside the 10. Pretty strong utilization, 69% of the backfields carries. 8% target shares a little lower than maybe I was hoping. And just because this is the comparison that Scott has made so often to 2024 Joe Mixin,

I added in those percentages in the next tweet that producer Trey could scroll down to. but for Mixon it was 81% of the carries, an 11% target share, and 86% of the work inside the red zone. So Monty coming in from a usage perspective, a little bit behind where 2024 Joe Mixen was when he averaged over 17 fantasy points per game. Do we care today because he scored three touchdowns? Obviously not. But I guess this is kind of where I think about maybe would I rather have DeAndre Swift right now? I feel better about, yeah, I think I would. And it's because I, if you say, okay, Ryan, you can have the Bears or the Texans for

who is going to constantly be in the Red Zone every single week this year and have that type of game script week after week, which team are you picking? I'm picking the Bears. So I do think that's, I don't know how actionable it is, but that that's kind of where I am is I would prefer Swift. Monty, it's prop was probably a very good. pick. I don't know by no means am I poking holes in him or his usage but that's I I do think that that decision point was something both of us missed. Well let's see how bad this bear's defense actually is

because game script could ultimately be a concern for dandre swift. Whereas with the texans this was a very pass heavy game script up against you know it's maybe the best offense and football on the Buffalo bills it's a game they lost and even so David Montgomery racked up 20 carries. He had three times as many targets as Woody Marks, who's supposed to be the passing game specialist. And like you said, he had three touchdowns. And that's really, you know, touchdowns are fairly fluky, except when they're not. And David Montgomery's always been like a great, you know, super efficient touchdown score throughout his career. And this is what should be an elite Texans defense where games don't typically go like this. Instead,

they have really good starting field position every drive and you know cj stroud actually looked pretty good compared to last year in this game so you know maybe more red zone drives than we would have thought coming in i i don't know i i think for the a game that they lost this this you really couldn't have asked for too much more two quite two follow-up questions for you scott was it pass heavy well i mean cj shroud had 38 pass attempts how many how many games over 35 pass attempts that he had last year? I don't know, but they had 32 team carries on the ground. I mean, that's pretty close to 50-50 in a game that was really tight.

And I think they had to, sorry, they had to go away from the run because Montgomery was running into a brick wall on every play. I mean, seriously, he averaged like three yards of carry today. And that was with an 18-yard touchdown run. It was literally grinding out two, two and a half yards. I mean, it was, it was tough to watch, man. I don't know. I'm a little concerned. I think Ryan's logic on this topic is spot on.

The Bears' offense is better. As much as I don't love Caleb Williams, he's better than C.J. Stroud by a lot. And I trust the Bears' offensive line and their play caller way more. Nick Cayley's a Ponzi scheme. I mean, he's terrible. So I think I'm with Ryan on that. I like Swift over Montgomery.

I actually don't even know that it's close right now. Yeah. That's my weak one overreaction. Yeah. No, so again, I'll agree with that. but yeah in a game the texans lost david montgomery having 20 carries three times as many targets as marks three touchdowns yeah i think that's pretty great but my my point is i think the problem is is that he had 20 carries because like that's bad play calling they literally could not run the football

and they they decided to do it 20 times with him yeah but in fantasy football for running backs volume matters more than efficiency so i like how long does that last though is what i'm saying i mean it How many games are they going to go into? When they had way worse running back. When their quarterback is significantly worse than Caleb Williams, who you hate, maybe it lasts the entire season. Okay. That I hope you're right.

So David Montgomery had a monster week. An Exodia running back did not have a monster. People are angry about this, Ryan Heath. But to me, this is about, I think, what we should have expected. Jonathan Brooks. Are you panicking? Are you souring on Jonathan Brooks, Brian? So I'm not panicking or souring on him.

Just to first, I'll lay out the usage first and then I'll give my take. So if we just take out the last like garbage time drive where AJ Dillon was getting work, the backfield ended up with 71% of the carries for Chuba Hubbard, 29% for Brooks. And Hubbard was up at an 8% target share Brooks down at 5% only two targets. He did have the really nice, like, 40-yard reception that you're going to see that highlight on social media this week. But that was really all there was to say about Brooks's day, whereas Hubbard had all four of the backfield's opportunities inside the 10-yard line. He had a fifth one that was just a play negated by penalty.

Hubbard just got all of the high-value work. And just right now, in terms of how this backfield was split up, Hubbard is like the clear belcow and Brooks is the clear change of paceback. Now, when you drafted Jonathan Brooks, and I guess this might depend on what your expectations were, if your expectations were very high just because Scott had him as an Exodia or because I had him ranked high, then yeah, you're probably disappointed in terms of this week one. And I think that's fair. I do think toward the end of the off season, especially as when it was Hubbard that was

injured throughout August and not Brooks that was injured. We were starting to think, oh, maybe this, uh, yeah, Jonathan Brooks like backfield flip could happen as soon as week one earlier than anyone might even expect, right? That clearly didn't happen. Uh, because Brooks entered this week with groin soreness. Uh, he did get a full practice in on Friday. So it's, I guess it's debatable how much that was actually holding him back.

Uh, but clearly in terms of who has had the most recent injured. who's missed the most time recently. It is Jonathan Brooks. So that's like your lifeline to hold on to and to cope about and say, okay, maybe this vacfield gets closer as the season goes on. Maybe Brooks just takes it over eventually. That's what we've seen from Dave Canales backfields each of the last two seasons. As the second string running back has outplayed the week one starter,

the other back took over. We saw that with Chuba himself. taking over for Miles Sanders after he had just signed a massive contract in 2024 a couple of weeks in. And we saw the same thing, like midway through last year when Hubbard was playing through injury, coming back from injury poorly, however you want to like litigate that with Rico Dowdell being an every down bell cow and mostly holding on to the backfield for the rest of the season after Harvard came back. So I don't think like the story is written on the Panthers.

backfield after week one. But I would say, yeah, hopefully if you drafted Jonathan Brooks, you listen to at least how I was kind of talking about him, which is this is not your RB2. Like if you're drafting Jonathan Brooks in your starting lineup with the intention of starting him in week one, that's rough. You shouldn't do that. Or if you are, you should be adding guys like Ramandre Stevenson, like David Montgomery, like backfilling production to make up for the.

possibility that he is not a good week one start. And that that's kind of what we just saw play out. I'm optimistic on Brooks from a season long perspective. There are very few running backs that I would rather have like stashed on my bench right now. But yeah, you clearly it didn't happen immediately for him. Yeah. And I don't think that's surprising. Again, you know, how I laid it out on the draft guide is you're really drafting him for a second half of the season upside. This was what is first ever NFL game with more than like six snaps. This is a career a career game for him. Yeah, the dude's coming back from a couple of devastating injuries. It's going to take him a while to fully get up to speed. And so, yeah, and you have contingent upside in the case of an injury.

This is all sort of par for the course for me. But I really do like that second half of the season upside. What about the Exodia quarterback? And I'll just just address this because I'm sure subscribers are curious. What's going on with Malik Willis? Well, you know, I was saying I love Malik Willis because like he's priced like he's shitty Justin Fields. So like if he's just like mediocre or even or good, you know, all that upside is free. Well, guess what? He just really looked like shitty Justin Fields. He had 15 completions, 39 rushing yards, five sacks in a 27 to 13 blowout. I want way more play volume than that, way more dropbacks, way more rushing yards.

So this was really concerning to me. And it also had a trickle-down effect on Devon A-chan. I know you were concerned about this, but look at Bejohn. Look at what Bejohn did with Cooper Rush. And it's like, that's kind of what I was hoping for with A-chan. No, it's just, yeah, it was a really rough week one. Again, don't panic and drop him because, you know, plenty of people might have done that last year with Drake May

up against the same defense in week one. And then he was just lights out every week from that point on. But certainly, you know, just looking at the box score, Brett, I found it discouraging. I don't know how much of this game you watched, but I'd like to hear your thoughts. Oh, I've watched every game that we're talking about. Every snap. Every snap of every game already. Yeah.

How is that humanly possible? That's what I do. That's my job. That's what I get paid to do. Yeah, so he started great. The first half was really good. Why are you so quiet? You watched every staff of every game. I'm sitting on a show with you two. What am I? What am I supposed to do? I know. I get to shut up. What do you mean? Yeah, so Maligua is great in the first half. As they see, started to get behind and the Raiders lead built it just fell apart when he's got to hold the ball

with the receivers he has i mean Caleb douglas at times looked really good chris bell at times looked really good but they're young players and they just they weren't nothing was jelling in the second half and the pressure just mounted i think i think the league took four sacks in the second half on third down like alone yeah i mean and credit to him he was trying to make plays and there was nobody open but like four sacks on third down is not good two of those were, I believe in field goal range as well. I still think they got the field goal off, but it was like, you know, made it more difficult.

So yeah, I mean, I'm not out, you know, if they can get him back to what he was in the first half, I feel pretty good about that. You know, he was really efficient, picking his spots as a runner really well. And then second half just kind of fell apart. Max Crosby got to him a couple times and that was, that was all she wrote.

So, well, my hope is this plays out a lot like Justin Fields Exodia year where the first month, the season. He was awful. The offense was awful. Joe is like, yeah, they got a, they got to bench him. This is like a UFO caliber quarterback. And then I guess the coach was just like, yeah, this isn't working. You need to just run as much as humanly possible. And from that point on, he was like Josh Allen. He was averaging 26 fantasy points per game. He was running a ton. And so, yeah, it's just such a cheat code in fantasy football, running cures all ills it cures an awful past catching core it cures you know being a sack prone

inaccurate quarterman so like that's my hope they they went out of their way to not give him design carries today that that's a little frustrating and for fantasy if that holds up the whole year then it was a terrible call for exodia i think exactly um you know all of his rushing attempts all of his rushing attempts for the most part were scrambles so we we got to get him in the design run game and uh but they should moving forward it's ridiculous to have a quarterback that athletic and not use him that way so right exactly all right so next topic who is this year's jsn who wants to go first well let's right let's let's let ryan go first he's the guest here and and he's got notes on both these guys in his in his stream i think he does

anyways let's just start out there uh i'd baltimore raven zay flowers or chris olave and or lad mccankey you're your guy Yeah, he's already heard. I was going to make the argument for Ladd-McConkie, but yeah, we don't know in terms of the injury. But, hey, of course, this only lasted so long until the end of the third quarter. But up until he left, Ladd-McConkey, 46.7% target share was basically the only thing working for the Chargers all day from what I saw off their offense. So I, pending injury news, which we got no update on, it was a chest injury. which hopefully isn't too bad, but I don't know.

I'm not the doctor. I was encouraged by that with Ladd this week. Yeah, Chris Olavé, though, oh my God. This was one I wrestled with a lot during August. As we got the news that Jordan Tyson was going to start the year on IR, potentially miss up to half the season, four to eight games. Their buy is like week nine. like it's possible Tyson's not like a full-time player till week 10 when we first found that out I was like man I need to move chris olivae up my rankings because he was so amazing last year when the offense was only concentrated around him from week 10 on yeah tray's got it up here on the screen and this includes uh week one's game yeah all just top three numbers among the wide receiver position close to 10 targets per game almost 100 receiving yards per game and

21.2 fantasy points per game since the Saints traded Rashid Shahid. The thing with the Saints too is they will this game was so ugly like it like at half time I was like man say I guess it's a ugly game like Saints are falling out of it whatever oh no they like these teams combined for like over 150 plays they went to overtime of course that's the Kellyn Moore thing is we're just going to constantly lead the NFL in plays per game. We lead the league in pace. And that, like, stretched out to this absurd target share for Chris Olave just equals a top

three fantasy wide receiver, kind of no matter what, kind of no matter how bad Tyler Shuck looks. I just kind, yeah, kind of no matter what else happened. So, yeah, Olave is one that I, like, was shuffling around my rankings a lot of August. I ended up with him below T. Higgins. I was kicking myself for that. one today where I think that's just wrong. I would just clearly rather have Olavé at this point after seeing, I guess, one more week

of proof of concept here for what the Saints kind of have to do and continually will do when this is their skill group. But yeah, I don't know. In terms of Zay, I don't think I even included Zay in my thread. Can I hit Olave? I'm not mistaken, but yeah, you can go for it. Yeah. Yeah, so I totally, I mean, Oliva's a stud.

He's a freaking stud, and he's in a great situation because of the past catchers they have at their disposal right now. I think this game is a little fool's gold, though, right? Like, how many game scripts are you going to be down 2,0? Especially, like, New Orleans is a really good defense. Their defense played amazing against Detroit today, actually. But they were down 210 because Tyler Shuck was stinking up the place. So, like, going into the fourth quarter, Tyler Shuck was averaging four and a half yard. cards per attempt.

Right. Like the, and then all of a sudden, just flipped. Like you said, the pace of play, the amount of snaps they were running. They ended up running 90 plays in this game. And it just eventually wore Detroit's defense down to a point where they were just chucking up yolo balls to, to Alave and he was coming down with them. But I just worry that this, this game script, like for him to have this kind of output, it was so game script dependent.

I just don't know how many games are going to be in where they can throw caution to the wind and just aggressively attack on every. single play because they have to come back from a 21 point deficit. So I definitely agree with you. Love him. I'm just, you know, I don't want to have a weak one overreaction because of a crazy game script. Yeah. And that's a good point you make to like put some numbers to it. This game combined for 159 plays between the Lions and the Saints, that's 67% more plays than Jaguars Browns had. So effectively, they played like an extra two-th thirds of a game because of overtime and because of how fast they were just playing back and forth

in the second half. So that that's like a classic way that people will overreact to week one in terms of just like raw stat output is because yeah, there are going to be a few games. Honestly, like more than a few games this week where it was just back and forth a ton of plays, a ton of scoring relative to other like more normal games where maybe guys had better roles or equally good roles but just didn't have like this kind of shootout game script yeah what's I'm sorry go ahead Scott you you go ahead Brett I was no I was that can ask Ryan what about Zay and then we'll tie it all together with Zay so that I mean funnily enough the 40 yard touchdown he scored I couldn't help but notice that it didn't it didn't come in the red zone as

Zay is not allowed to score touchdowns in the red zone he has to run them in from 40 yards out But I think like more so. He had from 40 yards out. He got tackled on the one yard line. Yeah, it's true. So he really should have had five catches, 151 yards, and two touchdowns. All in the first half, by the way, because he picked up a hamstring injury. And so Monster Day from Zayflowers all on the first half.

Go on, Ryan. Yeah, but I mean that that's really what it is is because of it. it being where he's in and out of the game, like the end of game target share, like opportunity shares, those didn't look like especially amazing. I think he had the same number of targets as Mark Andrews at the end of it. But like the bigger takeaway to me with the Ravens is this offense is working. And I think we all kind of forgot how special like a Lamar Jackson offense can be when defenses are actually having to respect his. his legs. So I had this stat like super early in the off season and then it's like one of those

things I just kind of forgot about where even just from in the pocket last year, Lamar went from top two, top three and like every efficiency metric when he didn't have his lower body injuries when there was still like a run threat to like a bottom tier like outside the top 30 in all of these passing efficiency stats. And I think you saw it today where the Ravens were just able to be so explosive because they just are constantly having to account for the math of Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry are in this backfield. Lamar scored his rushing touchdown because there was just nobody left to pick him up, right?

It was his, yeah, only his third 40-yard rushing game over the past two years had only done it once after his hamstring injury. Like to my eyes, he looked like clearly more explosive. The numbers bear it out too in terms of rushing efficiency results. Yeah, so I think like we've all, we all need to like readjust and reorient to this Ravens offense could be complete like insane. And Lamar basically had an MVP caliber season two years ago. Like that's kind of what I think can happen again now. Yeah, I think I texted you that felt like we should be betting minus 300 odds that the Ravens lead the league in EPA per play this year. The one caveat, though, is if you lose Zayflowers, that's bad.

Who else is he throwing the ball to outside of a potentially washed Mark Andrews? but yeah, like, who is this year's Jay. They did lose Jacoby Lane for what it's worth. Yeah, and Jacoby Lane as well. And Rashad Bateman, by the way, zero catches on one target for the ask God. Yeah, so four weeks ago, if you asked me who I thought this year's JSN was, I would punch you in the face and say,

you're an idiot that can't be repeated. JSN's 2025 season was one of one. I take that back. Zay Flowers is this year's JSN. He looks absolutely, like Declan Doyle looks like a genius, an upgrade on Todd Monkin, where I thought Todd Monkin was like the perfect guy for Zayflowers. No, Declan Doyle, what were we saying, Brett, the Irish takeover. Of course, the guy with the most Irish sounding name looks like one of the best play callers in the game.

And yeah, this is what he said. this is what Jesse Minner said is like this offense runs through Zay Flowers in that first half he had what like a 56% target share he was what was the play he scored the touchdown on Brett he it was a choice route from the backfield so I don't know I a player I used to give a lot of grief to yeah now extremely bullish on he just needs to get healthy we don't really know what this hamstring looks like but yeah um Sky's the limit, really. Worth noting we got a lot more Lamar under center today, too.

Right, right. That was showing, showing Payton stuff, yeah. Yep. All right, so we move on? Sure. Okay. Scott writes, running back, running back looking good.

Derek Henry, Jemir Gibbs, Ashton, Genti, DeAndre Swift, Bijan, Moni, Taylor, all had over 25 PPR fantasy points. What you want to say here, Scott? Just a big day for the running backs, and I don't think it's all that surprising some of the names on the list. Jemir Gibbs, you know, I've been saying all offseason

is going to have a vintage Ladanian-Thomlinson-esque season. What does that mean? It means like he's going to average like 27 plus fantasy points for game. Like he's going to break leagues. There's not going to be a close second. And then you have Derek Henry and Jonathan Taylor who are honestly kind of the same guy if we're being just freak all-time generational runners extremely game script sensitive sensitive but good good teams with good offensive lines can

can how is a 60-yard run at will be jean robinson you know we we talked about like it's there's a very real possibility he has a 1,000 1,000 season well guess what he well I'm sure you have the stats, Ryan, I'll let you get to that. Ash and Jeanty also, Genty had a very similar outing to Bejohn and also like a similar outing to like, you know, everything we've seen from him in games, his offensive line was giving him beyond negative three yards before contact for attempt. But yeah, I really want to pick Ryan's brain here on if you could quick hit this, Ryan, maybe what was the most surprising or the biggest action items from this list of running backs he went off this week? I think probably the biggest to me was Genty just because that's where I maybe had a little bit of a grain of doubt in my mind.

I had Ashton Genty as like my ninth overall ranked player before the prayer circle incident happened in August. I ended up with him at 14th. So I think still well ahead of where he was usually being drafted early second. Like at the end of August, post-Praer circle, post-Mike Washington going off in every preseason game, post-Ean Rappaport and every national reporter saying that Mike Washington was going to be a really big thing this year. That's not what we saw today whatsoever. 74% backfield rush attempt share for Genti, six targets in the passing. game was one of the most targeted players on the team only one behind michael mayer and yeah most importantly is seven out of eight uh opportunities in the red zone i think it was three carries

plus four red zone targets for gentie and that that's like really all it is to me is last year he averaged two and a half red zone uh opportunities per game because it was a completely broken offense because the Raiders had like a bottom one offensive line, bottom one play calling, just bottom one everything on offense last year pretty much to where Genti had amazing opportunity shares. He was like an 80 plus percent opportunity share back in the red zone and everything. He was super involved in the passing game, way more involved in the passing game than either Bejan Robinson or Jemir Gibbs were as rookies.

all we really needed was confirmation of hey this well a mike washington is not going to like come in and sigh up all of us which he did that mike washington is not seemingly a meaningful factor here for this year and two that this offense was going to be semi-competent so that's one where we'll have to see of course that this was the dolphins this is one going to be one of the best spots from a game script perspective the genties going to have all season. But really until like the fourth quarter when the game was kind of over anyway, they did move the ball, right? So I don't know.

Especially like from, I'm curious like to hear Brett's take on this is, is this Raiders offense, even without Brock Bowers like semi-viable? Are they going to be able to move the ball against real NFL teams? Or is that like very much still a question? I'd say very much still a question. I mean, the dolphins are probably the worst roster in the league.

They have the most dead cap ever in the history of the league. So they basically are playing with a college team. So, but I mean, things I saw that translate though, Gentie looks like he's going to have a lot more space this year. Tyler Linderbaum, JPJ, they were, they dominated the line of scrimmage. And I think that's a really good sign. The pass down stuff. It is funny. You talked about the Mike Washington thing.

Like I say this all the time. Reporters don't speak the same language as us. So I think Adam Schaefter probably thinks he was right. Mike Washington, a fourth round pick had seven touches in this game. That was a big deal. He is a big thing because there's a million day three running backs that never see the field as rookies. And this guy comes in and has seven touches his first game.

So I think we both think we're right on this, which is really funny. But it just, yeah, I mean, Genties workload was insane. 30 touches, right? Or was it 29, something like that? But yeah, I don't know. Kirk looks like he can run the offense. to an extent. I do worry against like good past defenses. They'll be able to hone in on Gentie a little bit better. But, um, the offensive line looks massively improved to me. Yeah. And by the way,

that's, that's one of the biggest takeaways here is that Miami might have like one of the worst defenses we've seen this past decade. So start everyone against the dolphins, especially running backs. Yep. Uh, I saw a hilarious note in your, your sheet, Ryan, about, um, Cione Vaki. I don't know why I wanted to bring this up, but you said, why did Sione Vaki get a, get a carry inside the red zone? And the, you know, was like three minutes left in the fourth quarter game was really tight. The simple answer is because Jumeer Gibbs touched the ball

the six plays prior. Yeah. Literally six plays in a row. So yeah. Yeah, this is just like, you're calling me out on that. This is like how I cope during, like during the Sunday slate is anything I like see on my screen that's like annoying to me from a fantasy perspective. I just write it down. I like get it out of my brain. And yeah, that that was what I was like,

Gibbs has been so awesome. Like what why is this there have to be like this like one weird thing that that just happened. But yeah, obviously pretty inconsequential. Here's a question for you guys. Do we want Jamir Gibbs getting 34 touches a week or do we think that's going to be bad for him long term? Screw it. I'm greedy. Give me 50 touches a week. That would put him number two all time in touches per season and like the most since 1940 or something like that. Hell yeah.

That sounds awesome. That rocks. The Bijon stat I had, by the way. So he had 21 carries, 83 yards. He had 10 targets, eight catches, 90 yards, and a touchdown. So the pace is looking good for that 1,000, 1,000 season. No other Atlanta player had more than four targets. He had 10.

he comprised 66% of the team's total yards from scrimmage, maybe something like 85% of the net yardage. Dude, Cooper Rush sucks. He's awful. So this is really bullish, I think, for Bijan. It really looks like there was a clear 101, a clear 102. Well, and then there's Puka Nakua, and then there's everyone else. And yeah, so that was one of my takeaways was just,

really sick, nice, nice little week here for the RBRB drafters. On that note of running backs, what running backs are we concerned with, Ryan? Hampton, CMC, got any notes there? Hampton, I think like the, it's still out. I don't think we totally know yet when we might need to see another game from this offense. I think that's like the most concerning thing. The usage for Hampton was completely fine to me. 75% of the team's carries.

He had the really nice touchdown early in the game from like eight yards out. Just like ran through like four different guys when I thought he was already down. It was very nice. And at that point I was like, damn, okay, Omerian Hampton's going to get every single red zone touch for the charges this year. Like that's it, book it. That wasn't the case. He evenly split Red Zone carries with Keaton Mitchell 2 to 2. So that's like something we need to watch, I would say.

If the Chargers end up being the type of offense that we thought they could be, but before the season, or at least that Scott and I did, I know Brett, you had like some more concerns. But if the Chargers offense ends up being amazing, ultimately I think Hampton will be fine. if it's more like it was today, I think it's a bit concerning. And also concerning is that there were zero targets to the running backs in this game,

which is just really weird. That's like not what like that that is not like a Justin Herbert thing. That is not a Mike McDaniel thing. That's like not something that's ever in either of their histories, like not targeting running backs at all. So I don't know. I'm like more willing to chalk this up to like this was kind of a weird game for the whole offense. But yeah, I would be curious, like, if you have more like systemic concerns based on what you saw just with the team, the offense working.

Yeah. Yeah, and if I can preface this for you, Brett, like, I don't know that there is anyone more critical of Mike McDaniel as a play caller and also Justin Herbert as a quarterback than you. So why don't you dive a little deeper into that? Yeah, yeah. So my take on Hampton from this game. Well, so let's back up. If you listen to any of our shows in the off season, you know that my big concern was that Mike McDaniel's scheme doesn't really fit the running style of Amari and Hampton.

McDaniel wants to live in this outside, whether it's outside zone or if he's attacking the alleys with counter with power. It's a very much like we got to go win the corner type of run scheme. That's not Omar in Hampton's game. He lacks the lateral quickness to be super efficient in that type of scheme. Can he do it once in a while? Absolutely. Can he do, can he perform outside?

zone from like a short corner look like 12 personnel two tight ends and a wing formation yes he can it's just not his strength uh and so what we saw today was out of 12 carries six of them were outside zone wide zone you know how many yards you got on those six carries how many five five yards not great uh so yeah i didn't like that and guess what else like four of the other six were power and counter trying to win the alley trying to get the edge with um ryan hampton just not it's just not something that's going to work with him long term it has to be duo it has to be inside zone if we're going to play the zone game uh we got to get downhill with this man you saw the touchdown run that was him getting downhill that's what it looks like when you allow amari and hampton

to get downhill so uh so yeah i i think what i saw today just confirmed the things i was suspicious of all all seasons so um can it get better for sure and then and then justin herbert is the world's biggest if boy um if this if that uh he'll be great right if o'marin hampton had more yards he'd get hurt yeah exactly but the thing is Herbert was terrible before lad got hurt and then lad got hurt was just like the icing on the cake well this game's not going well so um yeah i don't know uh i'm also a little bit more pessimistic on omerian hampton's usage than than ryan is only a 57 percent snap share keith mitchell ran more routes than hampton and again zero targets umpton was like i thought a really strong underrated past catcher in college uh and so it's a little disappointing we

haven't seen too much of that uh or we didn't see any of it in week one he was a good static checkdown player kind of like i quit i kind of compared his receiving chops to david montgomery like i felt like he had a good feel for check and release through the line of scrimmage, but as a static target, him on the move, like on, you know, any type of swing or like, you know, swing release types, it's just that's, bro, he doesn't have the hip flexibility for that. It's just not a great look. So a little worried, but hopefully I am wrong because there's a lot of people that drafted him early. Any notes on CMC, how we feel in there with Kalon Black. Kaelin Black got a lot more of the workload, I think, than anyone anticipated, even

the biggest Kalon Black Truthers. I really refused to buy into this being a thing. And for one thing, he came into the game with cramps. He was dealing with cramps in the game. So that alone could explain it, but also it really just being the fourth preseason week, they flew all the way out to Australia. He missed a couple days of practice earlier in the week. That alone could explain it.

But it's also, I just think reason prevails. one of my favorite stats from last from last year was um with christian mcalfrey on the field the 49ers led the league and EPA per play with him off the field they were negative and would have ranked 25th and it's just like he's the skeleton key to the offense where he just puts defenses in such a bind whether or not he's actually even touching the ball just in terms of how he could be a mismatch weapon how he can reveal defensive tendencies or or you know, get lined up against a linebacker and do slot wide receiver stuff.

It's gonna, I'm gonna have to, this is gonna have to stick until like Halloween for me to admit this is real. So this is another potential by low for you is Christian McCaffrey in case anyone's panicking. All right. Yeah, that's largely where I end up on CMC too. Yeah, I just, I don't need to add a ton

just said that I largely agree on CMC. Yeah, I think most likely it's just a weird week one thing. I'll get more into it in the everything report, but yeah. Scott, I was going to congratulate you because the New York Giants just defeated the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Yeah, speaking of concerning usage, zero targets for Cam Scadaboo. I don't like that, even though he did have 18 carries, 81 rushing yards in a touchdown. Also, Jackson Dart looked awesome. So if he should, I was so close to making him Exodia, he was the Exodia runner up.

if he goes nuclear and malik willis sucks i am going to never forgive myself i'm never going to forgive you brett because you you were you know pouring cold water uh on jackson dart and then whispered nothing's in my ear on malik willis i pour no cold water on jackson dart you asked me for a film analysis from last year which i clearly caveat with i still think jackson dart is the better player moving forward i just think tyler shug's tape was better last year that's That's all I said. No cold water board. I said he's Patrick Mahomes 2.0.

You poured cold water on that. Yeah, that that's a little absurd. That deserves cold water. Yeah. All right, let's hit one more player here before we get out. Dalton Kincaid. We finally got the game from Dalton Kincaid.

We've been waiting for for seemingly four years at this point. Uh, the usage was good, right, Ryan? We got routes run. We're way up. I mean, he played pretty much the entire game.

And then obviously the production, the box score counting stats were great. Yeah. It was amazing. It was exactly what we've been hoping for. This was kind of the thesis with Dalton Kincaid for me going into the season was, what if we've spent an entire offseason saying that Kincaid will never play enough, will never run enough routes because he can't run block?

When really you look back at what all of the bills coaching staff was saying all offseason, what they were saying during all of last season, which was, yeah, he's really hurt. he's really beat up. We're going to have to have like a different system in terms of keeping him fresh like throughout the practice week this year. We're going to implement that. And hopefully he can be on the field more to help us.

And that's exactly what we just saw. He played much closer to a full-time role than we saw at pretty much any point of last season. I led the pace the team in receiving yards, 130. And now in five of his last 10 games, where he's run just a 45% route share, which is like nothing. That's like every starting tight end runs that. That it that doesn't just get hurt. Like three Steelers tight ends did that last year.

Yeah, that 45% is like the lowest possible bar that I, that I chose to like try to be unfair to Dalton Kincaid in this stat. Five of the last 10 games he's hit that. He's been above 16 PPR fantasy points. I really think what, okay, let me measure. myself and check my going forward take here. So I think the thesis was correct on Dalton Kincaid, if he is anywhere close to a full-time player, even if for him that means like a 60% route share, I think he's going to be really good for fantasy. I think he's going to be a top end,

tight end one, like a top six tight end, right? That you are starting every week that you know that he's healthy and going to play. I do think it takes one like injury to get into a world where we're like, oh my God, how much is Don Quincade actually going to play this week? What do we do with him? It can turn very quickly into that, I think. All it takes is like one hit, like one, yeah, thing to go wrong. So I, like, until further notice, this is how I'm viewing Dalton Kincaid, that he's, yeah, an extremely efficient player.

He was like 40% more efficient than George Kittle by Arts Per Outrun last year. But until he gets. it yeah until he gets injured again I think you have like you have like a steal here I I think you should be really excited if you drafted him really late like like hopefully some people did reading my draft guide so the route share was still not perfect it was 65% baby this is unreviewed data that's good it's good it's good it's not perfect though but here's where I get really excited to nerd out a little bit he's on the field for 17 of 20 designed rushing attempts the reason

that's important is because it gets them away from the tell that's been the big issue is the tell when kinkades on the field they're pass heavy when he's off the field they don't run the ball well they trusted him with 17 run blocking opportunities on 20 opportunities or 20 attempts today i think that's fantastic news for dalton kinkade and i would expect his overall route share goes up as a consequence of that so um yeah wheels up for dalton kincade this is the season we've been longing for you know that's a huge stat that was awesome brett i can't believe you just step Stapmogged Brian Heath and I on the show. I have access to the data you don't.

The initial data. He can just statmog us on this program. Yeah, perfect. I'm excited for this every single week to get stout for this. I got to talk to my agent. This is unacceptable. It's the one and only time. I'll be able to stat mug you guys just because I get to look at it first.

So, well, awesome. Brian, this was so cool. Thank you for coming on and doing the show with us. Of course. Yeah.

Had an awesome time. It's a it's it was a great it was a great hang yeah thanks for coming on to Brad I really appreciate it maybe Maybe we'll get you on later this week as well yeah whatever um so for those that liked what they heard today from ryan he does the everything report as you can see on the screen right now what the everything report's going to be dropping what tuesdays yeah so for for the week to everything report this week give me until like late tuesday night this the first week is always the hardest uh there's so much to update that goes on around the league for the first week. I will do absolutely everything in my power to have it up before waivers run this week. That's my promise to all the subscribers. Most weeks, it'll be like Tuesday, mid-afternoon.

Might be a little later at night this week, though. Awesome. Well, thanks again, Ryan. Thank you, Scott. Remember, folks, we're going to be doing this every single day in season. 70% of you watching this right now are not subscribed to the YouTube. Please click to subscribe. button turn notifications on do not miss a single video that's going to do it for day thank you for sticking

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