Fantasy Football Daily - San Francisco 49ers with John Chapman | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: July 25, 2023

Expectations are high for the 49ers heading into 2023, but they still have some key questions. John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) of the 49ers Rush Podcast talks to Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) about Brock Purdy and the QB situation, expectations for Christian McCaffrey, and if Brandon Aiyuk is ready to break out. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points Podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. To the franchise-focused podcast series on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network. I'm your host, Joe Dolan, and our long journey is coming to a close. 32 teams in 32 days, occasionally skipping a day here and there. But essentially in one month, we have a podcast for each NFL team, starting with the AFC East and now wrapping up with the NFC West.

I hope you enjoyed this journey as much as I did. I hope you learned as much as I did. Getting intel on camp battles, potential sleepers, injuries, who's going to be back early in training camp, who might not be back until a little bit later in the summer, contract situations. All of that has been covered. I just want to thank all of my co-hosts for scheduling these.

It was not a fun job scheduling the podcast. Once I started recording them, that's when I really started to enjoy it. Scheduling and getting people all on the same page was not the most fun, but everybody who I had on this podcast was so excited to join me, and it was such a pleasant experience once I got these things scheduled that I really can't imagine not doing this next year, even though it was a massive stress item in my life. But I think the fruits of the labor have really borne out here with all the information that we have acquired throughout the franchise focus podcast series.

We also, by the way, if you just listen to this and you're not subscribed to fantasy points.com, we also did an accompanying article for all 32 NFL teams in which we broke down, did a full breakdown of every player projected all. on those 32 teams, including John Hansen's final thoughts and how he's approaching all the teams. So I want to thank everybody for reading those articles. Tom Broley, Ryan Heath, Jake Tribby contributing to those articles. The guys did a wonderful job. Tom Brawley also did a full betting preview for all 32 teams. The guy is just a machine, so I really hope you check that out. And finally, we launched the Fantasy Points Data Suite last week. And to say the reception's been

great is an understatement. I think the industry is enjoying it, and I think the industry is seeing the potential of the fantasy points data suite. If you haven't signed up for the data suite and given a look at everything that the tool can do, you can go and sign up for a free seven-day trial. It will not charge your credit card for seven days, and you can decide if the data suite is something you want to add to your fantasy football research this year. It has been a big research month here with the franchise focus podcast.

series in the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I hope everybody is along for the ride, and I hope everybody is ready for training camp in the preseason. That is what this series was leading into. And without further ado, here is our final division, the NFC West. It is our penultimate episode of the franchise focus podcast here at FantasyPoints.com. It's been a long and arduous journey, but this is like, I'm not a runner by any stretch of the imagination, John.

but I do do Peloton. And this is like at the end of a race when there's that little bit of enticing, you know, the light at the end of the tunnel. And having a conversation with you, John Chapman is something I've been looking forward to since our last podcast that we did before the 2020 season. His name is John Chapman.

He is the hosting creator of the 49ers Rush podcast. You can find them on YouTube. You can find them audio. Kind of just like the franchise focus podcast series. And you can follow him on Twitter at J.L. underscore Chapman. John, welcome back to the program. It's good to be with you and excited to talk some 49ers. Yeah, man, I can say this. You have lasted longer than four 49ers quarterbacks during this stretch. So I just want to say, congrats to you, my friend. Well, let's start with the quarterback position.

Brock Purdy's coming off elbow surgery, Tommy John surgery. Obviously, the recovery is not going to be as long as it would be for a major league pitcher. what's the latest on Brock Purdy? What's your expectation for him in his recovery? I've had a schedule by all accounts. You know, just had the repair, not the replacement surgery. And so initially they were thinking the fourth week of August, he'd be 100% cleared. He's already throwing literally three weeks ahead of the time schedule

they laid out by the surgeon, not the team, whenever it first happened. So everybody was expecting Tray Lance to probably be in the fold early week one. that seems to just go down lower and lower each day. This is Brock Purdy's job if he's healthy, and I fully do expect him to be back in time for not training camp. I think he's going to start off on the pup, but the training camp pumps very different than the pup that happens once the 53 set up.

So I would say probably an 85% chance if I had to put a number on it, that he starts week one currently. I don't think the 49ers have had a normal quarterback situation. I mean, since before they acquired, Steve Young? I mean, even Bill Walsh back in the day was saying, I don't know if it was 100% true, was saying that there was a quarterback competition between Joe Montana and Steve Young. And I look at this saying, well, you're like, it's Brock Purdy's job until it isn't. It was Alex Smith's job until it wasn't. Obviously different coaching staff, but Kyle Shanahan has never been shy about making a move when a move is needed to be made.

So the way I look at it is this. Is there an opportunity for Tray Lance or Sam Darnold to do something in training camp that makes the coaches and the media say, well, okay, now there might be something here. Is there an opportunity for them? I think we're to the point now. You got to remember how did Brock Pretty get his job, right? Right. Because of the injuries. And, you know, there's this age old adage that says you can't lose your job to an injury.

If you're in the 49ers organization, that has been incorrect for a lot. long time. So I don't think that Trey or Sam Darnold, whoever shines in camp, I don't think that's enough. You've got to show it in the regular season. That's where you have to do it. Now, Brock Purdy and his agent, they've been out front and they understand. They do not want to give that opportunity

to Trey Lance or Sam Darnold. That's why they are, all the stuff coming out about Purdy is not coming through the 49ers. I think Shanahan and John Lentz want to play it safe a little bit and let's see what we got in Trey Lance. That's just my own interpretation. But Brock Purdy and his agent are like, nope, 100% not happening. We are not giving anybody that opportunity week one. So I don't care.

I love Tray Lance. I'm a huge Tray Lance guy. I really want to see what he can do. But I don't think anything matters unless you see what happens in a regular season game. And I would say this probably thankfully for the 49ers history. No matter who gets that quarterback job week one, we're going to be seeing a couple guys under center this year. Yeah. So I want to talk about Brock.

Purdy, obviously not the most physically gifted guy. That's why he lasted to Mr. Irrelevant. Jimmy Garapolo, I don't think anybody would consider the most physically gifted guy. But there was something about Brock Purdy that he played better than Jimmy Garoppel. What does he do that maybe a Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't do? What does he do that maybe a Tray Lance can't do? And why does that work within the context of the 49ers offense? The biggest hindrance to Jimmy Garoppelow's tenure as a 49ers quarterback.

And it was positive, not trying to throw a shamed. He went to a Super Bowl, by the way. He was incredible. However, never learned to throw the ball away. He would take so many unnecessary hits, and he didn't like to check it down too well. Now, that changed once CMC arrived, but when Brock Purdy stepped in,

he did both of those facets better. And so the check down, which used to be a bad thing, especially when Jimmy Garoppolo played, just because he would never do it and didn't seem like he wanted to, Brock Purdy had no issues whatsoever. And when you're checking down to Debo and CMC and George Kittle over and over and over,

again, guess what? Those are going to turn into high efficiency plays despite being on your third or fourth option in the passing attack on that play. So Brock has truly become just the John Stockton of the 49ers quarterbacks in a way that Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't. And I think that's huge because you said it earlier. Purdy outplayed Garoppolo. His first eight games are better than any eight games in Jimmy Garoppolo's entire career combined. So Purdy, they average 30 points a game when that kid stepped under center. It's going to be a fun year. It really, really is because you're returning all the skill. Offensive lines pretty much four out of five starters are the same. Right tackles a little bit of an issue, but they're pretty happy with what they have there. I do not see this offense taking a huge step back from what they did last year.

Yeah. So let's talk about the receiving core because for fantasy, this is really important because you have three guys going really high. Debo Seamiel is generally about a third round pick. And then once you get to the fifth and sixth round, that's when George Kittle and Brandon Ayuk come off the board. I want to first start with the wide receivers. Debo versus Ayuk.

Compare and contrast their styles. And when you watch Iyuk on tape, is there something that hasn't yet translated to statistics? Because on a per play basis, I watch that guy, and I'm like, this is a really good receiver. But for fantasy, it's been kind of up and down. How do you describe and compare and contrast those two receivers? IYook is the true number one.

And I know like, okay, number one means first target and first priority. No, no, no, no, that's what I'm saying at all. He's the true X. And the fact that he's the best route runner, I think he's got by far the best hands on the team. He can create space like no other. And what's important for people to remember, when you're drafting Brandon Iyuk that late, contract year just broke a thousand yards for the first time of his career, he's had the best OTAs in offseason of any single player out.

there and it's not even close every single person that whenever they got asked you know at o'tas and minicamp and whatever else brend and i yuk looks like a different person he went through a transformation last year fred warner created a monster all throughout training camp last year i don't know if you you remember hearing this fred warner was jarring at brandon i yuk every single day all throughout training camp to the point brendt i yuk punt he probably wanted it yeah yeah wasn't a doghouse two years ago because he wasn't physical enough. Kyle Shanahan said so. Fred Warner said, look, I'm going to freaking turn this dude into a beast. So now you've got alpha mentality, elite separation, contract year, and he's never going to get double teamed because there's too many studs in this

offense. So is he going to be a league winner? Is he going to be a wide receiver one? No. But if you're drafting him in the back end of the third round, you're drafting a guy whose floor is probably top of the third round. Like he is a safe, safe, safe play. You can get him a lot later than that, by the way. He's like fifth, sixth round. Third round is where, third round is where Debo goes. So, Debo's interesting because the rushing production has been so important to what he did, but you remember it a couple of years, you know fantasy. A couple years ago when he's getting all these long rushing touchdowns, and I have Debo, I'm like, yeah, but that's not sustainable. 45-yard rushing touchdowns are not sustained. Now, he made it close to

sustainable as possible. But should we expect kind of the same role for Debo, that kind of hybrid running back wide receiver role? Yeah, there's going to be a very conscious effort to get the ball into Debo's hands. And he came out and he said, you know, last year was awful. Every single way shaped it for, you know, 1770 total yards back in 2021, which is just unbelievable yardage from a wide receiver position to, you know, what he did this year, just under a thousand yards, miss some times.

that's a huge drop off. I think what would be realistic is somewhere in between 2022 and 2021. I would put the over under at about 1,250 total yards just because a lot of his targets are within the line of scrimmage. And he is the yak monster of all yak monsters. You just got to just get him the damn ball. And so we'll see. Debo, I'm excited to see what he's going to do this year. But if you're drafting him thinking you're getting 2021 Debo, that's never going to happen again

with Christian McCaffrey there. So it does lower his ceiling a little bit. But if you're drafting him, what's he going? Like wide receiver 18 currently somewhere around there? 17, 18. Right around where Calvin Ridley's going. That's where he's getting drafted. Yeah.

You have the possibility of somebody that can literally win a game for you single-handedly. 30-point type production. That's what he can bring on any given game. So I like guys with that upside there. And yeah, if you're getting him at, wide receiver 15, 16, 17, 18, I think you're going to be okay. I wouldn't reach for them in the top 12, but definitely that big play potential is always there.

I don't think this is going to surprise you. Among wide receivers and tight ends who had at least 50 targets last year, we have this charted data at FantasyPoints.com. Debo Samuel led them all in targets that were deemed designed specifically for the player, a little screen, a little pop pass at 29.7%. You're saying you don't really expect that to change. too much. No, I think it could actually increase because Kyle Shanahan, you traded for Christian McCaffrey in the middle of the season. And so my favorite thing whenever I'm watching the 49ers

play is whenever you've got the quarterback at shotgun with CMC on one side of the backfield, Debo on the other side of the backfield, and you're a linebacker? What the hell are you going to do there? And so that was something they put in on the fly during the season. Now, Shanahan's had time to manipulate that and figure out how teams play against it, how they're going to defend it, and now he can chart up all the craziness. So, yeah, the design touches will continue to be there for Debo with what they're paying them, with what they've seen in the past. Kyle Shenan and him are like kind of besties.

Like, it's going to continue. How do you balance the fact that George Kittles' physicality makes him elite? Obviously, I don't know if you saw the Madden ratings come out. He's the number two tight end. But I think most people would have him two, three in that area. with the fact that that physicality occasionally hurts his availability. Is there a balance to be struck or is it something that the 49ers have to live with? You can't turn the animal off.

You know, that's, Kittles a maniac at all times, whether he's playing football or he's just in front of a camera. Dude's just crazy. Which is part of what makes him so damn good. But that's not going to change. And if George Kittle and Travis Kelsey switch places, then I think, you know, that'd be a fun conversation to see what he could actually do just as a receiving threat. But Kyle Shanahan's a run game first guy. That's not changing.

And that's kind of the problem with Kittles' statistical whatever with fantasy football. That's everything. Well, there's going to be games where he's going to get three or four targets and that's it. And that's a problem. But on the flip side of that, touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns. All 11 of George Kittles touchdowns last year came after, McAfree got traded for. After.

That's half the season. So if he continues that stretch, and if we do believe Brock Purdy's going to be in there, you get a touchdown from the tight-in position in a fantasy game on a given week. Your odds of winning shoot up exponentially. I mean, when you get touchdown points from the tight-in position, you have an advantage. And I think George Kittle can bring that for you. So on these podcasts, I haven't spent a ton of time talking about the guys who are so obvious. elite for fantasy because like there's only so much you can talk about and it's been a whole lot of

time talking about Justin Jefferson when we talked about the Minnesota Vikings or or a whole lot of time talking about Patrick Holmes. Christian McCaffrey is that kind of guy. We know what he is for fantasy. If he stays healthy, he's got the number one overall player in fantasy in his range of outcomes. So I wanted to branch this off, John, into a more philosophical question for you. This week, the week we're recording, we obviously saw what happened with Sequan Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard with the franchise tag, none coming to the long-term extension. And in the articles that you've been reading about that, and I think most of them have been pretty sympathetic to the plight of the running back, but a lot of them will mention, well, blame Mike

Shanahan, blame Kyle Shanahan, you know, for showing that these schemes are so, the scheme is what makes the back. The back doesn't make the scheme. And I think even the most ardent running back supporter would say there is at least some level of truth to that. So that's why I find it funny that over the last number of years, nobody has invested more in the running back position than Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. Christian McCaffrey is obviously the most extreme example, but we're talking about a run of day two draft picks on the position. Guys who didn't work Trace Ehrman, Tyrion Davis Price, day three draft picks at the position. where is the disconnect here?

And what is Kyle, because I'm sure Kyle Shanahan's been asked about this, what has he said about the fact that he might be the guy who's made running backs more replaceable than anybody, yet he doesn't view them as replaceable. I know that's a lot to unpack, but I think you get, you understand what I'm getting at. Oh, I love it. Great question, Joe. And like, it is weird because you can go back to Daddy Shanahan and trading Portis for Champ Bailey, right?

Like, oh, who cares? Get rid of Portis. who's, you know, possible league MVP. And it was just like, I could get anybody, then Terrell Davis, whatever else you can go on and on and on. Land is scaring. Yep. Yeah.

But here's what's crazy. One of the people you left out, Jerich McKinnon, he paid top tier money for Jerich McKinnon. That was a total dud. Ever since Shanahan has been here, he has had a massive problem with running backs. One year he had five running backs injured before week one. And it just completely crippled his offense.

Now you're to the point where, not only do the 49ers have the highest paid running back per year, Christian McCaffrey, they also have the highest paid fullback, Kyle Usecheck, per year. It's just like Shanahan has found a market inefficiency across the NFL, which he and his father created Ed Kubiak, and now he's exploiting that. And I think that's probably one of the things that makes Shanahan who he is, is he is able, if you look at the minority coaching hires and front office hires, who's led the NFL and, you know, coaches and GMs that have been hired from the minority.

It was the 49ers. And every single person that was on their staff that has been hired, they were in place before the league put in that, you know, extra compensation pick formula to encourage that. They're just finding inefficiencies. And I think that's one of the things that Shanahan is good at. And so, look, he struggled with running backs and getting those elite players. So what does he do?

He goes and gets Debo. wide receiver who's a running back. He goes and drafts Jaylen Hurd, who again didn't pan out in the third round, who was a running back converted to wide receiver. He gets George Kittle and runs jet sweeps with his tight end. And so with the new NFL caveat, especially defenses,

I don't want to go too deep into this, but in this Fangio shell system of too high, deep thirds, quarters, all that stuff. And defenses are trying to force everybody, check it down, check it down, check it down. Shanahan says, sure, No problem. I'm just going to get guys that can break tackles and get yards after the catch. We'll check it down with Brock Purdy.

Come get Debo. Come get CMC. Come get Kittle. We'll see what happens. Yeah. I just think it's so fascinating because you would just think, you know, Shanahan, of all people would be like, all right, fine. I drafted Elijah Mitchell in the sixth round. Let me go spend another six round pick. You know, well, who the hell cares? And I'll find the guy. Nope. He's spending all their draft capital to go get Christian McCaffrey. What is, what is McAfree's outlook this year? I mean, he came into the, into the team mid-season. I mean, focal point of the offense? Is that fair to say? I think that is 100% accurate. That's what it is. And the fact that you saw Jimmy G's best football

once CMC showed up, then Brock Purdy, all those things that take place. And I think that's a big reason why the 49ers front office and coaching staff not too worried about the quarterback position. One of the few teams in the NFL where the office does not revolve around the quarterback. It revolves around Shanahan first, CMC second, maybe you can put Debo and Kiddle third, fourth, and then the quarterback. And oh, by the way,

back to Brett and Iyuk, who's just this elite separation wide receiver that runs perfect routes. So it's just such a weird anomaly type of a team, even for Shanahan teams. Yeah. He's finally created the atmosphere that he wants, if a quarterback could just step in

and just make good decisions, this team's going to be pretty damn good. You mentioned right tackle potentially being a problem spot. What's going on there and what should we watch in training camp? Yeah, Mike McGlenshey got paid big time to go to Denver. They paid up trying to protect Russell Wilson, see how he turns around. They love Colton McKevitts. They like that's going to be the person that steps up.

They like Colton McEvitt so much. After the 2019 season, Joe Staley retires, long time left tackle, 10 plus years. Their plan was to draft Colton McKevitts in the third row. round and he was going to be the left tackle day one. Well, during day two of the draft, they finalized the Trent Williams trade, put him over there, best left tackle in sports, then we're able to draft Colton McEvitts in the fifth round. So they have been keeping up with Colton McEvitts for a while. He's got some great starts under his belt for an injured Trent Williams, for an injured Mike McGlenshey. So they're pretty excited about that. And if that doesn't pan

out, they did pay big for Matt Pryor to be kind of that swing tackle. And remember, it's easier to play offensive line in the Shanahan system, then it is a power scheme. You don't have to have the long arms. You don't have to have all the crazy power moves, whatever else. Just stay in the way. That's all you got to do. So it's a very offensive friendly system. John, I've been wrapping up the franchise focus podcast series by asking all of my guests.

Who is a potential sleeper on the 49ers offense? Somebody who might not be on the tip of the fantasy player's tongue who could come in here and contribute something offensively. Probably one of my favorite players from last year. undrafted free agent Jordan Mason. Dude is a beast. And again, you got to love the undrafted running backs when it comes to Shadahan scheme. He came in.

His nickname's the closer. Elijah Mitchell was injured so much. Christian McCaffrey, he's in there. He's in there. But whenever they go to their four minute offense, they put in the bruiser Jordan Mason. So if you're in a deep league or a dynasty league and you need a flyer on a running back, Jordan Mason is the guy I'm grabbing super, super late. doesn't apply to redraft leagues or shallow rosters or 10 person leagues, things like that.

But that is somebody to keep an eye on there so high on this kid. So I just want to clarify, do you view him as clearly behind Elijah Mitchell? I do. However, Elijah Mitchell's never available to also a trade candidate with his contract status. Elijah Mitchell's free. He doesn't even count against the salary cap in the top 51 rule. So he's a hop-skip at a jump from being the number two or Christian McCaffrey does get injured. I'd hate for that to happen. I'm grabbing Jordan Mason everywhere I can.

Is there still the light on for Tyrion Davis-Price? Yeah, his tape was way better than Trey Sermann. I know everybody wants to compare him to Sermon, who was a third round pick the year before. They like Ty Davis-Price. Not even in the same category. The problem is Jordan Mason outplayed him. So that's the issue there,

Not so much Ty Davis Price is bad. It's Jordan Mason is so good that he passed him on the depth chart. And I expect him to stay there. His name is John Chapman. He is the hosting creator of 49ers Rush, which you can follow him on audio, YouTube, wherever you want to see him at JL underscore Chapman on Twitter. John, it's been wonderful talking to you. I mean, it's training camp time, man.

I mean, when I started these back in June, I'm like, oh, oh, it's so far down the line. And now I'm finished. I'm like, oh, crap. There's already teams out there. So now I'm like, I better put pedal to the medal. It's been good talking to you, my friend. Thank you so much for joining me. Take care, Joe.

Appreciate you, man. And everybody, I have one more of these to give you. Michael Sean DeGar of the Athletic is going to be talking Seattle Seahawks. And then the franchise focus podcast series is wrapped up. You'll have that podcast in your feed tomorrow. And I really appreciate everybody sticking with me throughout it. So thank you, everybody for listening. And I'll catch you later.

Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at fantasy points.com.